One of the biggest things coming in the 2011 offseason is the impending free agency of Albert Pujols. He looks to command the biggest contract in MLB history, even corralling 30 million dollars a year. But who will pay him that kind of money? Let's go through the teams and see what the odds are for each team signing Pujols.
No chance
30. Rays
The Rays need help at first base, but considering they couldn't re-sign Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena, how in the world would they sign Pujols? Even if they have a small payroll and there's no chance they'll commit over half their 2012 salary to one player. There's a zero chance Pujols goes to the Rays.
Odds: 1 in 4,000,000,000
29. Royals
The Royals have a tiny payroll and Eric Hosmer as their first baseman of the future. The Royals don't need to make a big splash in free agency with the top prospects coming, and even if they did, they don't have anywhere near the money to sign Pujols. Pujols will not be going across the state of Missouri to Kansas City in 2012.
Odds: 1 in 1,000,000,000
28. Pirates
When was the last time the Pirates signed a big free agent? They just don't have the payroll. Lyle Overbay (arguably their biggest free agent signing of the 2010 offseason) isn't the long-term answer at first base, but the Pirates will have to look to the farm system or lower-tier free agents because Pujols will not be a Pirate (although I could see the headline now: "Pujols a Pirate").
Odds: 1 in 90,000,000
27. Blue Jays
The Jays couldn't even sign their own big impending free agent, Roy Halladay. How in the world would they sign Pujols?
Odds: 1 in 75,000,000
26. Diamondbacks
They haven't had a big signing in quite a while. Prospect Brandon Allen is the first baseman is the future, and he's certainly not a sure thing, and also the D-backs made a run at Paul Konerko, but they just don't have anywhere near enough money to make a run at Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 60,000,000
25. Brewers
If the Brewers had the money to sign Pujols, they would have extended Prince Fielder. Also, they just signed Ryan Braun to a huge deal.
Odds: 1 in 50,000,000
24. Padres
Ditto Brewers, but for Adrian Gonzalez. They haven't signed anybody to a big extension, but they have never had a lot of money to begin with.
Odds: 1 in 45,000,000
23. Reds
The Reds have a player they can build around in Joey Votto at first base, and they're a small-market team anyway.
Odds: 1 in 35,000,000
22. Indians
The Indians are playing out of their mind right now and you would think that they just need to continue adding fuel to the fire to keep contending. But, they have a good combination of veterans and young players right now, and they would certainly extend Grady Sizemore before signing Pujols. Not to mention that they don't have the money to sign Pujols anyway.
Odds: 1 in 20,000,000
21. Twins
The Twins have Justin Morneau at first base, and it's unlikely that they'll be able to afford another high-priced player.
Odds: 1 in 10,000,000
20. Giants
The Giants have Aubrey Huff and Brandon Belt, and we know they don't have 30 million dollars lying around.
Odds: 1 in 8,000,000
19. White Sox
The White Sox have some money, but they have both Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn. They're not signing Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 7,500,000
18. Mets
The Mets have had cash in the past, but we know that the Wilpons are cash-stricken and looking to add a minority owner. Even if they did somehow get the money, they'll be much more worried about signing Jose Reyes anyway. And of course, they have a promising player in Ike Davis at first base.
Odds: 1 in 5,000,000
17. Astros
They're getting a new owner, so you never no what their payroll would be, but they have Brett Wallace at first base, and the new owner wouldn't want to commit most of his payroll to Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 3,000,000
16. Athletics
The A's don't have the money, but I feel like Billy Beane could pull off a crazy sign-and-trade or something.
Odds: 1 in 2,500,000
15. Mariners
The Mariners have signed a couple of big free agents in recent years, but they don't appear to be contending anytime soon, and they have Justin Smoak, who should be manning first base for years to come.
Odds: 1 in 2,000,000
14. Marlins
The Marlins want to make a splash as they're moving into their new stadium, and they did spend a bit more money in the 2010 offseason, but 30 million dollars is a ton of money, and unless Pujols gives the Fish a "hometown discount" because they're the closest MLB team to the Dominican public, the Marlins won't be able to sign him.
Odds: 1 in 1,000,000
Probably not
13. Phillies
The entire baseball world is hoping that the Phillies don't scrape together enough pennies to sign Albert Pujols. I'm sure Ryan Howard is hoping too.
Odds: 1 in 10,000
12. Braves
The Braves have Freddie Freeman at first, and they don't have limitless funds, but they've made runs at big players in recent years.
Odds: 1 in 7,500
11. Tigers
Maybe the Tigers have money, but they have Miguel Cabrera, and they would have to catch Victor Martinez more often to fit in Pujols at DH. They'd also have to convince Pujols to play left field on an irregular basis (he did play most of 2003 in left field, but he hasn't played there since).
Odds: 1 in 5,000
10. Rockies
The Rockies have extended Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Is there any money left?
Odds: 1 in 3,500
9. Angels
The Angels made runs at Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford this past offseason, but failed to sign either of them, and they traded for the pricey Vernon Wells. The Angels don't have quite enough money to sign Pujols, and they also have two promising first baseman in Kendrys Morales and Mark Trumbo.
Odds: 1 in 2000
9. Red Sox
The Red Sox might have the money, but with Adrian Gonzalez at third, David Ortiz at DH, and even Carl Crawford in left field, the Red Sox would have to convince Pujols to play right field. Pujols did play 39 games there in 2001, but he has had some elbow problems since, and playing right field could kill his elbow and endanger his career. It's not impossible, but it's certainly a long-shot.
Odds: 1 in 1000
Don't completely count them out
7. Dodgers
They've spent quite a bit of money in the past. If they ever get that FOX TV deal signed, and their ownership situation resolved you never know what will happen, but the chances are certainly against Pujols being a Dodger.
Odds: 1 in 100
6. Orioles
The Orioles are starting to spend some money, and Derrek Lee was signed to just a one-year contract, but 30 million dollars is seemingly too much.
Odds: 1 in 75
5. Rangers
The Rangers have been spending money lately, but they already have a ton of money on the books and a logjam of players playing first base/DH including Mike Napoli and Michael Young. They theoretically could sign Pujols, but they probably will decide not to.
Odds: 1 in 60
4. Nationals
The Nats signed Jason Werth this past offseason and Adam LaRoche is coming off the books after the season, so you never know for sure.
Odds: 1 in 40
3. Yankees
You may think I'm crazy, but Pujols going to the Yankees is a semi-realistic possibility. It would be the same of situation as the Red Sox above with Mark Teixeira at first base, but the Yankees would certainly move Brett Gardner to give Pujols time in left field, and if they could sign Pujols, they would certainly be willing to trade Jesus Montero to give him time at DH as well.
Odds: 1 in 20
Contenders
2. Cubs
The Cubs have new owners, the Ricketts, and are dying to make Pujols a part of their team. They might actually be able to offer Pujols a 10 year, 300 million dollar contract. But would Pujols leave St. Louis?
Odds: 2 in 5
1. Cardinals
The Cardinals have been Pujols' team the past 11 years. They won a championship with him and have built a solid team around him. Why should he leave? But will the Cardinals offer him the 30 million a year?
Odds: 12 in 25
Results
Cardinals- 48% chance of re-signing Pujols
Cubs- 40% chance of signing Pujols
Yankees- 5% chance of signing Pujols
Nationals- 2.5% chance of signing Pujols
Rangers- 1.7% chance of signing Pujols
The field- 2.7% chance of signing Pujols
It's Cubs-Cardinals for the rights to have Pujols with the Yankees, Nationals, and Rangers having outside chances and every other team barely being involved if part of the picture at all. This should be interesting.
Showing posts with label Rangers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rangers. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Crazy Rangers-A's (-Pirates?) trade
Just Billy Beane doin' work. The Oakland A's have acquired right-handed reliever Guillermo Moscoso from the Texas Rangers in exchange for minor league right-handed reliever Ryan Kelly. Kelly was acquired from Pittsburgh in late December, so he never pitched a single game in the A's system. Kelly was acquired from Pittsburgh in exchange for minor league UTIL Corey Wimberly who was acquired from Colorado in February 2009 for Matt Murton. Murton was acquired from the Cubs in the Rich Harden trade. It's chaos. Rich Harden is well, Rich Harden and Murton just set the record for most hits in a season in Japan, so let's just look at the other players involved in the more recent trades.
Moscoso's big league performance in '10 wasn't anything to write home about. He pitched in 1 game, two thirds of an inning, giving up 2 runs for a 27.00 ERA. Even in the minors he posted a 7-7 record and a 5.18 ERA in 22 starts and a relief appearance at Triple-A Oklahoma City. But, it's not too hard to see what Beane sees in him. Moscoso posted a good 7.8 K/9 in the minors in '10 along with a 3.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, and a terrible 10.4 H/9. For his minor league career, Moscoso has an 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, and an 8.5 H/9. He just had an off-year. Even if you want to argue that he was overwhelmed by Triple-A, he did post a 2.31 ERA there in 11 starts and a relief apperance in '09. Also, in 10 big league relief appearances in '09, he posted a 3.18 ERA. Beane seemingly thinks that Moscoso will be at least a somewhat effective big league reliever for the A's in '11.
But, why then would Beane acquire him in exchange for Kelly, a minor league reliever? Kelly isn't great, but he did post a 4.20 ERA in '10. He gave up 9 home runs for a 1.1 HR/9 ratio, but he posted a 9.0 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9 for an outstanding 5.36 strikeout to walk ratio. Oh yeah, one problem: Kelly repeated Low-A in '10 and turned 23 in October. Either Beane is an idiot for trading a player with potential because of his high strikeout and low walk rates, or he's a genius for getting a big league reliever for a pitcher who posted an ERA over 4.00 an Low-A.
Wimberly, who Beane gave up to get Kelly, seems to have more value than either Moscoso or Kelly. He turned 27 in October, but last year at Triple-A Sacramento he hit .284 with 14 doubles, 3 homers, 57 RBI, 7 triples, 97 runs, 56 stolen bases, and a .373 OBP. He even played a decent centerfield and posted fielding percentages at LF, SS, and 2B that a team could live with (while being a complete disaster at third base). Sounds like Jerry Hairston Jr. with speed to me. How could Beane possibly trade him for a relliever who posted a 4.20 ERA at Low-A, especially one that he used to trade for another player? It's not like speedy utility players grow on trees!
I am so confused. The A's, like all teams, do have some utility players (such as Adam Rosales), but why give him away for nothing? If Kelly wasn't nothing, why did he trade him for Moscoso? Conspiracy theory is that this was essentially a three team trade where the Rangers wanted Kelly, the A's wanted Moscoso, and the Pirates wanted Wimberly. But, why then would there be over 2 weeks between the Pirates-A's trade and the A's-Rangers trade? My guess would be that Beane was trying to get more for Kelly, which delayed the trade for a while. A typical two weeks in the life of Billy Beane.
Moscoso's big league performance in '10 wasn't anything to write home about. He pitched in 1 game, two thirds of an inning, giving up 2 runs for a 27.00 ERA. Even in the minors he posted a 7-7 record and a 5.18 ERA in 22 starts and a relief appearance at Triple-A Oklahoma City. But, it's not too hard to see what Beane sees in him. Moscoso posted a good 7.8 K/9 in the minors in '10 along with a 3.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, and a terrible 10.4 H/9. For his minor league career, Moscoso has an 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, and an 8.5 H/9. He just had an off-year. Even if you want to argue that he was overwhelmed by Triple-A, he did post a 2.31 ERA there in 11 starts and a relief apperance in '09. Also, in 10 big league relief appearances in '09, he posted a 3.18 ERA. Beane seemingly thinks that Moscoso will be at least a somewhat effective big league reliever for the A's in '11.
But, why then would Beane acquire him in exchange for Kelly, a minor league reliever? Kelly isn't great, but he did post a 4.20 ERA in '10. He gave up 9 home runs for a 1.1 HR/9 ratio, but he posted a 9.0 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9 for an outstanding 5.36 strikeout to walk ratio. Oh yeah, one problem: Kelly repeated Low-A in '10 and turned 23 in October. Either Beane is an idiot for trading a player with potential because of his high strikeout and low walk rates, or he's a genius for getting a big league reliever for a pitcher who posted an ERA over 4.00 an Low-A.
Wimberly, who Beane gave up to get Kelly, seems to have more value than either Moscoso or Kelly. He turned 27 in October, but last year at Triple-A Sacramento he hit .284 with 14 doubles, 3 homers, 57 RBI, 7 triples, 97 runs, 56 stolen bases, and a .373 OBP. He even played a decent centerfield and posted fielding percentages at LF, SS, and 2B that a team could live with (while being a complete disaster at third base). Sounds like Jerry Hairston Jr. with speed to me. How could Beane possibly trade him for a relliever who posted a 4.20 ERA at Low-A, especially one that he used to trade for another player? It's not like speedy utility players grow on trees!
I am so confused. The A's, like all teams, do have some utility players (such as Adam Rosales), but why give him away for nothing? If Kelly wasn't nothing, why did he trade him for Moscoso? Conspiracy theory is that this was essentially a three team trade where the Rangers wanted Kelly, the A's wanted Moscoso, and the Pirates wanted Wimberly. But, why then would there be over 2 weeks between the Pirates-A's trade and the A's-Rangers trade? My guess would be that Beane was trying to get more for Kelly, which delayed the trade for a while. A typical two weeks in the life of Billy Beane.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
The strange tale of former Yankee Ruben Rivera
The Yankees have traded so many prospects. Some have become superstars, but most of them have never amounted to anything. Ruben Rivera fell somewhere in between.
Rivera, a centerfielder who is Mariano Rivera's cousin, was signed as a 17 year old in 1990, the same year the much more famous Rivera was signed. He didn't play his first game in the Yankee system until 1992, but once he arrived, he did pretty well, hitting .273 with 21 stolen bases and a .417 OBP at Rookie ball. He posted just a .951 Fld% in CF, but with 10 outfield assists. The next season, he began to show five-tool potential at Short Season-A Oneonta, hitting .276 with 7 doubles, 13 homers, 47 RBI, 6 triples, 12 stolen bases, a .385 OBP, a .976 Fld% in CF, and 9 outfield assists. Before the 1994 season, despite being so far down in the minors, Rivera was named the 76th best prospect in the minors by Baseball America. In 1994, Rivera had a tremendous season. Between Low-A Greensboro and High-A Tampa, Rivera hit .281 with 28 doubles, 33 homers, 101 RBI, 6 triples, 101 runs, 48 stolen bases, a .357 OBP, a .978 Fld% in CF, and 7 outfield assists in 139 games. He showed all the skills necessary to be a superstar. Accordingly, despite still being at A ball, Rivera was ranked the 2nd best prospect in the minors entering the 1995 season. In 1995 between Double-A Norwich and Triple-A Columbus, Rivera couldn't quite repeat his 30-30 performance , but he had another outstanding season, as he hit .284 with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 74 RBI, 10 SB, 86 runs, 24 SB, a .390 OBP, a .981 Fld%, and 6 assists in 119 games. He was so good that he got his first "cup of coffee" in the majors, appearing in 5 games and striking out in his only AB. Rivera appeared to be well on his way to being a superstar for the Yankees (or whatever team he was traded to).
In 1996, everything changed. Rivera was ranked the 3rd best prospect in the minors entering the season, but he certainly disappointed, hitting just .235 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 46 RBI, 4 triples, 15 SB, a .324 OBP, a .972 Fld% in CF, and 6 outfield assists in 101 games. It wasn't a terrible season, but it certainly was a step backwards. But, that lack of performance in the minors may have been because he spent his first extended time in the big leagues for the Yankees. He hit .284 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 16 RBI, 16 SB, a .381 OBP, a perfect 1.000 Fld% at all three outfield position, and 2 assists. Rivera even earned a spot on the Yankees' ALDS roster (but not the ALCS or World Series rosters). Maybe Rivera wasn't going to be a superstar, but he certainly had a chance to be a productive big league player for the Yankees. But, the Yankees coaches were upset with Rivea's attitude, and to complicate matters, he hurt his shoulder throwing out a runner late in the season. In February 1997, Rivera underwent surgery on his injured shoulder. His future with the Yankees was in question.
Rivera never played another game in the Yankee system before being traded to the San Diego Padres while still injured. That trade sent Hideki Irabu to the Yankees. Due to his injury, Rivera played just 35 games between the majors and minors, hitting .225 with 2 homers and 2 SB in 18 minor league games, and .250 with two SB in 17 games for the Padres. He did not make any errors in the outfield or post any assists. He seemed to be declining more and more offensively. In 1998, Rivera hit just .144 in 30 minor league games! But, he did much better in the majors. He hit just .209, but with 7 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, 2 triples, 5 SB, a .325 OBP, a .973 Fld% in the outfield, and 3 assists in 95 games. It certainly wasn't a great season, but he did prove he could at least be a productive bench player.
In 1999, Rivera had one of the most bizarre seasons EVER. He played the entire season in the majors, hitting just .195 in 147 games. That's certainly not good. But, he hit 16 doubles, 23 homers, 48 RBI, 1 triple, 18 SB, 65 runs, and a .295 OBP. He nearly went 20-20 while hitting .195! He is the only player in the history of Major League Baseball to hit under .200 with over 20 homers and over 15 stolen bases. Unbelievable. About his 48 RBI's, it takes some skill to have your RBI's be barely double the amount of homers you hit in a season. He hit 18 solo shots and just 5 homers with runners on base. He hit just .160 with runners in scoring position. Defensively, he posted a .976 Fld%, but with 8 assists. What a season!
In 2000, Rivera had his best season, although it wasn't anywhere near as unique as '99. He hit above the Mendoza line at .208 with 18 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 6 triples, 8 SB, 62 runs, a .296 OBP, a .984 Fld%, and 10 assists. A whopping five other players have hit under .210 with 15 or more homers and 8 or more stolen bases (obviously, Rivera's 1999 season qualifies as well). Following the season, the Padres didn't care how unique Rivera was and they released him. He just wasn't a good player because of his low batting averages.
In 2001, Rivera was signed by the Cincinnati Reds. He had a bad season, but he set his career high for a full season with a .255 BA, 13 doubles, 10 homers, 34 RBI, 1 triple, 6 SB, a .321 OBP, a .983 Fld% in the outfield, and 4 outfield assists in 117 games. After the season, Rivera was re-signed by the Yankees, but during spring training, he made the stupid mistake of selling Derek Jeter's glove for $2500 and he got released. He was then signed by the Rangers, and with them, hit .209 with 4 homers and 4 stolen bases in 69 games. In '03, Rivera hit .180 with 2 homers for the Giants. At age 29, he had played his last 31 games in the majors.
After sitting out the '04 season, Rivera signed a minor league contract with the Yankees. After hitting .118 in 6 games, he left and signed with Campeche of the Mexican League where he hit .342 with 21 homers, 71 RBI, 14 SB, and a .432 OBP in 80 games. Rivera was so good in the Mexican League that he was signed to a minor league contract by the White Sox in '06. He hit .239 with 16 homers in 107 games for Triple-A Charlotte, but didn't earn a call-up to the majors. Since then, he has played exclusively in the Mexican League, hitting .349 with 103 homers, and 60 SB the past four seasons. Rivera has now hit 256 homers in the minors and stolen 222 bases.
Rivera was supposed to be a great player, but he never really panned out for the Yankees or any other team. He had all the skills, but he just couldn't hit for average at all. Obviously, not all players can be 5-tool players, but if you're a 4-tool player, the missing tool better not be hitting for average (unless you're Mark Reynolds who has ridiculous power). Whenever you see minor league stats, you can't conclude that I player is going to be a superstar. You have to be able to put it all together at the major league level. Rivera obviously was unable to do that. (Not that he was a Quad-A player- keep in mind that he posted minor league BA's of .235, .225, and .144 from '96 to '98.) No prospect is ever a sure thing. Rivera was ranked the 3rd-best, 2nd-best, and 9th-best prospect in the minors entering the 1995, 1996, and 1997 seasons respectively. Were the Yankees right to trade all these prospects? In most cases, no. But, sometimes it's better to get a sure thing rather than a prospect who may or may not pan out.
Rivera, a centerfielder who is Mariano Rivera's cousin, was signed as a 17 year old in 1990, the same year the much more famous Rivera was signed. He didn't play his first game in the Yankee system until 1992, but once he arrived, he did pretty well, hitting .273 with 21 stolen bases and a .417 OBP at Rookie ball. He posted just a .951 Fld% in CF, but with 10 outfield assists. The next season, he began to show five-tool potential at Short Season-A Oneonta, hitting .276 with 7 doubles, 13 homers, 47 RBI, 6 triples, 12 stolen bases, a .385 OBP, a .976 Fld% in CF, and 9 outfield assists. Before the 1994 season, despite being so far down in the minors, Rivera was named the 76th best prospect in the minors by Baseball America. In 1994, Rivera had a tremendous season. Between Low-A Greensboro and High-A Tampa, Rivera hit .281 with 28 doubles, 33 homers, 101 RBI, 6 triples, 101 runs, 48 stolen bases, a .357 OBP, a .978 Fld% in CF, and 7 outfield assists in 139 games. He showed all the skills necessary to be a superstar. Accordingly, despite still being at A ball, Rivera was ranked the 2nd best prospect in the minors entering the 1995 season. In 1995 between Double-A Norwich and Triple-A Columbus, Rivera couldn't quite repeat his 30-30 performance , but he had another outstanding season, as he hit .284 with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 74 RBI, 10 SB, 86 runs, 24 SB, a .390 OBP, a .981 Fld%, and 6 assists in 119 games. He was so good that he got his first "cup of coffee" in the majors, appearing in 5 games and striking out in his only AB. Rivera appeared to be well on his way to being a superstar for the Yankees (or whatever team he was traded to).
In 1996, everything changed. Rivera was ranked the 3rd best prospect in the minors entering the season, but he certainly disappointed, hitting just .235 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 46 RBI, 4 triples, 15 SB, a .324 OBP, a .972 Fld% in CF, and 6 outfield assists in 101 games. It wasn't a terrible season, but it certainly was a step backwards. But, that lack of performance in the minors may have been because he spent his first extended time in the big leagues for the Yankees. He hit .284 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 16 RBI, 16 SB, a .381 OBP, a perfect 1.000 Fld% at all three outfield position, and 2 assists. Rivera even earned a spot on the Yankees' ALDS roster (but not the ALCS or World Series rosters). Maybe Rivera wasn't going to be a superstar, but he certainly had a chance to be a productive big league player for the Yankees. But, the Yankees coaches were upset with Rivea's attitude, and to complicate matters, he hurt his shoulder throwing out a runner late in the season. In February 1997, Rivera underwent surgery on his injured shoulder. His future with the Yankees was in question.
Rivera never played another game in the Yankee system before being traded to the San Diego Padres while still injured. That trade sent Hideki Irabu to the Yankees. Due to his injury, Rivera played just 35 games between the majors and minors, hitting .225 with 2 homers and 2 SB in 18 minor league games, and .250 with two SB in 17 games for the Padres. He did not make any errors in the outfield or post any assists. He seemed to be declining more and more offensively. In 1998, Rivera hit just .144 in 30 minor league games! But, he did much better in the majors. He hit just .209, but with 7 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, 2 triples, 5 SB, a .325 OBP, a .973 Fld% in the outfield, and 3 assists in 95 games. It certainly wasn't a great season, but he did prove he could at least be a productive bench player.
In 1999, Rivera had one of the most bizarre seasons EVER. He played the entire season in the majors, hitting just .195 in 147 games. That's certainly not good. But, he hit 16 doubles, 23 homers, 48 RBI, 1 triple, 18 SB, 65 runs, and a .295 OBP. He nearly went 20-20 while hitting .195! He is the only player in the history of Major League Baseball to hit under .200 with over 20 homers and over 15 stolen bases. Unbelievable. About his 48 RBI's, it takes some skill to have your RBI's be barely double the amount of homers you hit in a season. He hit 18 solo shots and just 5 homers with runners on base. He hit just .160 with runners in scoring position. Defensively, he posted a .976 Fld%, but with 8 assists. What a season!
In 2000, Rivera had his best season, although it wasn't anywhere near as unique as '99. He hit above the Mendoza line at .208 with 18 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 6 triples, 8 SB, 62 runs, a .296 OBP, a .984 Fld%, and 10 assists. A whopping five other players have hit under .210 with 15 or more homers and 8 or more stolen bases (obviously, Rivera's 1999 season qualifies as well). Following the season, the Padres didn't care how unique Rivera was and they released him. He just wasn't a good player because of his low batting averages.
In 2001, Rivera was signed by the Cincinnati Reds. He had a bad season, but he set his career high for a full season with a .255 BA, 13 doubles, 10 homers, 34 RBI, 1 triple, 6 SB, a .321 OBP, a .983 Fld% in the outfield, and 4 outfield assists in 117 games. After the season, Rivera was re-signed by the Yankees, but during spring training, he made the stupid mistake of selling Derek Jeter's glove for $2500 and he got released. He was then signed by the Rangers, and with them, hit .209 with 4 homers and 4 stolen bases in 69 games. In '03, Rivera hit .180 with 2 homers for the Giants. At age 29, he had played his last 31 games in the majors.
After sitting out the '04 season, Rivera signed a minor league contract with the Yankees. After hitting .118 in 6 games, he left and signed with Campeche of the Mexican League where he hit .342 with 21 homers, 71 RBI, 14 SB, and a .432 OBP in 80 games. Rivera was so good in the Mexican League that he was signed to a minor league contract by the White Sox in '06. He hit .239 with 16 homers in 107 games for Triple-A Charlotte, but didn't earn a call-up to the majors. Since then, he has played exclusively in the Mexican League, hitting .349 with 103 homers, and 60 SB the past four seasons. Rivera has now hit 256 homers in the minors and stolen 222 bases.
Rivera was supposed to be a great player, but he never really panned out for the Yankees or any other team. He had all the skills, but he just couldn't hit for average at all. Obviously, not all players can be 5-tool players, but if you're a 4-tool player, the missing tool better not be hitting for average (unless you're Mark Reynolds who has ridiculous power). Whenever you see minor league stats, you can't conclude that I player is going to be a superstar. You have to be able to put it all together at the major league level. Rivera obviously was unable to do that. (Not that he was a Quad-A player- keep in mind that he posted minor league BA's of .235, .225, and .144 from '96 to '98.) No prospect is ever a sure thing. Rivera was ranked the 3rd-best, 2nd-best, and 9th-best prospect in the minors entering the 1995, 1996, and 1997 seasons respectively. Were the Yankees right to trade all these prospects? In most cases, no. But, sometimes it's better to get a sure thing rather than a prospect who may or may not pan out.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
A brief thought on Cliff Lee going to the Phillies
Everybody is shocked. How the heck did Cliff Lee turn down both the Yankees' money and the Rangers' proximity to his home an his great experience there this past season? Well, after thinking about it, there is a simple reason that Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies. Lee's plan was to go to Philadelphia the whole time. The only question was whether the Phillies would make an offer that was anywhere near the offers of the Yankees and Phillies. They did, so he signed. But, what was Lee's reasoning behind the move? He never wanted to leave. Lee and his wife loved Philadelphia. Lee had spent just half a season there, but was already talking about a contract extension after the season. But, then the Phillies traded for Roy Halladay, and apparently because of budget issues (how ironic!), they were forced to trade Lee to Seattle. Lee was upset, but he appeared to move on after the season started. He then got traded to Texas, led them to a World Series, and started saying 'we' when referring to the team. Acting like that to the Mariners and Rangers was just a negotiation strategy. He even had his wife look for a house in New York with CC Sabathia's wife, possibly for an ulterior motive as well. Acting like such a 'darling' with the other teams made them think they had a chance at signing him (the Mariners tried to sign Lee to an extension) to up the Phillies' offer. It was a great a move by Lee and his agent, but as a Yankee fan I hate it, and so should all other Yankee fans and all Ranger fans. He used us all.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Who will win the World Series?
Giants-Rangers in the World Series. I want to find the person who predicted that matchup from the beginning of the playoffs, let alone at the beginning of the season. Anyway, who's going to win?
Catcher: Bengie Molina vs. Buster Posey
Molina is a 13-year veteran, and his age (35) definitely showed in '10. He hit just .249 with 12 doubles, 5 homers, 36 RBI, and just a .297 OBP in 118 games, ironically between the Giants and Rangers. But, he has played very well in the playoffs, hitting .357 with a homer and 2 RBI in the ALDS, and .313 with a homer and 5 RBI in the ALCS. He is still a good defensive catcher, as he posted a.993 Fld%, a 23% CS%, and just 4 passed balls. He still has some gas in the tank.
Posey, on the other hand, is playing his rookie season. And what a rookie season it was. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He has hit .282 with 3 RBI in the playoffs. Posey is also a very good diffensive catcher, as he posted a .991 Fld% in '10 with a 37% CS% and just 1 passed ball. He's a great player with a great career ahead of him.
Advantage: Giants
1st basemen: Mitch Moreland vs. Aubrey Huff
Moreland had a pretty good rookie season, hitting .255 with 4 doubles, 9 homers, 25 RBI, and a .364 OBP in 47 games. (Project thsoe numbers over a full season, and he would have hit .255 with 14 doubles, 31 homers, and 86 RBI.) He has hit .303 with 4 RBI in the playoffs. He has posted a pretty good .993 Fld% at 1B. He's a nice young player who has made Rangers fans all but forget Justin Smoak (traded in the Cliff Lee deal).
At 33, Huff is no longer in his prime, but if you looked at his numbers you wouldn't know. He had a great year in '10, hitting .290 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, and a .385 OBP in 157 games. He has done OK in the playoffs, hitting .256 with 4 RBI. He is a good defensive 1st baseman, as he posted a .996 Fld% in '10. Eventually, he's going to slow down, but not right now.
Advantage: Giants
2nd basemen: Ian Kinsler vs. Freddy Sanchez
Kinsler missed time with a groin injury, but still had a nice year. He hit .286 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 45 RBI, 15 SB, and a .382 OBP in 102 games. In '09, he went 30-30, hitting 31 homers and stealing 31 bases. He has had a great postseason, hitting .342 with 3 homers and 9 RBI. He is a pretty good defensive 2B, as he posted a slightly-above average .985 Fld%. He is a very good player and a feared hitter in the Rangers lineup.
Sanchez had a pretty good season in '10, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 111 games. He has hit .268 with an RBI in his first postseason. He is still a great defensive 2B, as he as posted a .991 Fld% in '10. He is hampered by a shoulder injury right now. Sanchez is a good player, especially in terms of BA and defense.
Advantage: Rangers
3rd basemen: Michael Young vs. Pablo Sandoval
Young had an great year in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doublles, 21 homers, 91 RBI, 99 runs, and a .330 OBP in 157 games. He has hit .255 with a homer and 7 RBI in the playoffs so far, but .333 in the ALCS. He's a slightly below average defensive 3B, as he posted a .950 Fld% there in '10. Young is still a great player, despite being past his prime and at his 3rd defensive position.
Sandoval had a very disappointing year in '10, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. That came one year after hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI and a .387 OBP in 153 games in '09. He has hit just .214 in the playoffs, but he had a key 2-run double in the NLCS. He's actualy a slighty above average 3B, as he posted a .961 Fld%. We know from '09 that Sandoval is a great player who can jump-start the Giants' lineup.
Advantage: Rangers
Shortstop: Elvis Andrus vs. Juan Uribe
Andrus had a nice Sophomore season in '10, hitting .265 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 35 RBI, 32 SB, 88 runs, and a .342 OBP in 147 games. He has hit .333 with 3 RBI and 7 SB in the playoffs, although he was picked off twice by the Yankees in the ALCS. He's an average defensive SS, as his .976 Fld% in '10 was .003 better than the league average at SS. He is a good leadoff hitter who sets the table for the big hitters behind him.
Suprisingly, almost shockingly, Uribe had the best season of his career as he entered his prime in '10. He hit just .248, but with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 85 RBI, and a .310 OBP in 148 games. But, he hit just .071 in the NLDS with an RBI and just ,214 with a homer and 3 RBI in the NLCS. He is a well above-average defensive SS, as he posted .984 Fld% there in '10, in addition to a .957 Fld% at 3B (slightly above average) and a 1.000 Fld% in 24 games at 2B. He's a good player.
Advantage: Toss-up. They're such different players.
Left Field: Nelson Cruz vs. Pat Burell
Cruz, despite missing time with a hamstring injury, had a great year in '10, hitting .318 with 31 doubles, 22 homers, 78 RBI, 17 SB, and a .374 OBP in 108 games. He's also been amazing in the playoffs, hitting .375 with 5 homers and 8 RBI. He's a below-average defender in RF (.979), but he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in LF during the regular season and has often played LF in the playoffs. He's a great player in the middle of the Texas lineup.
Burell had an OK year in '10, hitting .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between Tampa and Texas. He hit .200 with a homer and 3 RBI against the Braves in the NLDS, and .211 with an RBI against the Phillies, his former team, in the NLCS. He is an average fielder in LF, posting a .985 Fld%. Burell, at 33 years old, is in decline, but he still has some pop.
Advantage: Rangers
Centerfield: Josh Hamilton vs. Andres Torres:
Hamilton had a ridiculous year in '10, hitting .359 with 40 doubles, 32 homers, 100 RBI, 186 hits, 95 runs, and a .411 OBP in 133 games. He missed the vast majority of September with broken ribs that are still bothering him, at least to some extent. Not that it's possible to tell just from his playoff stats. After hitting just .111 with an RBI in the ALDS against the Rays, he exploded in the ALCS against the Yankees, hitting .350 with 4 homers and 7 RBI. He posted just a .979 Fld% in LF in '10, but a 1.000 Fld% in CF, where he has played in the playoffs. He is just an incredible player.
Torres had a good first full season in the big leagues at age 32. A former Ranger (8 games), Torres hit .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 SB, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. After hitting ,125 in the NLDS, he hit .350 in the NLCS. He has no homers or RBI's in the playoffs, and just 1 SB against 3 CS's. He is a great defensive CF, as he posted a .995 Fld% there in addition to 1.000 Fld%'s in RF and LF. He's a good player, but frankly, he's not anywhere near as good as Hamilton.
Advantage: Rangers
Right Field: David Murphy/Jeff Francoeur vs. Cody Ross
Murphy and Francoeur have been platooning in RF for the Rangers during the playoffs. Murphy, the lefty, hit .291 with 26 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 14 SB, and a .358 OBP in 138 games. He has hit .200 with a homer and 2 RBI in the playoffs so far. Francoeur, the righty, hit .249 with 18 doubles, 13 homers, 65 RBI, 8 SB, and a .300 OBP in 139 games between the Mets and Rangers. He has hit just .167 with an RBI in the playoffs. Murphy posted a .995 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions, while Francoeur, a one-time Gold Glover, posted a .988 Fld% in RF, but with 11 outfield assists, tops among NL right fielders. Murphy and Francoeur are OK players.
Ross hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 SB and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and the Giants. He's playing out of his mind in the playoffs right now, hitting .324 with 4 homers and 8 RBI. A natural CF (.994 career Fld%), Ross posted a below average .982 Fld% in RF. He's always been a good player (20 homers in '08 and '09), but right now he's becoming a playoff star.
Advantage: Giants
Total: Rangers 4, Giants 3, 1 toss-up
Vladimir Guerrero will be the DH for Texas. He had a truly great season, hitting .300 with 27 doubles, 29 homers, 115 RBI, 93 runs, and a .345 OBP. But, will the Rangers play him in RF in San Francisco? He posted just a .933 Fld% in 17 games in RF. He's a great hitter, but he could be just a pinch-hitter in San Francisco.
Pitchers:
Aces (Games 1 and 5 unless they go on short rest): Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum
Lee had somewhat of an off-year, going 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 185 K's in 28 starts and ironically 212.1 IP. He also had 7 complete games. Of course Lee is probably the best postseason pitcher ever. He went 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in the ALDS and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in the ALCS. For his career, he's 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in 8 starts. He's just ridiculous in the playoffs.
Lincecum also had an off-year '10, at least by his standards. The 2-time defending Cy Young Award winner went 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA and 231 K's (tops in the NL) in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's undoubtedly a great pitcher.
Advantage: Rangers
Number 2 starters (Games 2 and 6): C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Cain
Wilson had a great first full year as a starter. He went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 170 K's in 33 starts and 204 IP. He led the AL with 93 walks. He has 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a good pitcher, but he has to improve those playoff numbers.
Cain had a great season in '10, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA and 177 K's in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He has been untouchable, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts. He's a great pitcher that provides a very good 1-2 punch with Lincecum.
Advantage: Giants
Number 3 starters (games 3 and 7): Colby Lewis vs. Jonathan Sanchez
Lewis had a nice season in '10, going 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA and 196 K's in 32 starts and 202 IP. It was his first season in the majors since '07 because he was in Japan in '08 and '09. He has had an amazing postseason, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in 3 starts. He has played very well.
Sanchez had his first great year as a starter. He went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA and 205 K's in 33 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 193.1 IP. He has gone 0-1 with a 2.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a very good pitcher.
Advantage: Toss-up. Sanchez had a better regular season, but Lewis has been better in the playoffs.
Number 4 starters (game 4): Tommy Hunter vs. Madison Bumgarner
Hunter had a good year, going 13-4 with a 3.72 ERA and 68 K's in 22 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 128 innings. He missed April and May with an oblique injury. But, he has been killed in the playoffs, going 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA. He'll have to at least get back to his regular season numbers. He's an OK pitcher.
Bumgarner had a good year also, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA and 86 K's in 18 starts and 111 IP after being called up on June 26th. He has gone 0-0 with a 3.55 ERA in the playoffs. He's young, but he has pitched well.
Advantage: Giants
Total- Giants 4, Rangers 3 (let's say the 'advantage' pitchers win all their matchups and Lewis and Sanchez split their 2 games)
Bullpen:
Closer: Neftali Feliz vs. Brian Wilson
Feliz had a great rookie season, going 4-3 with a 2.73 ERA, 71 K's, and 40 saves in 70 relief appearances and 69.1 IP. He has gone 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA in the playoffs (no saves). He's a good young closer.
Wilson had a amazing season as the Giants' closer, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, and 48 saves in 70 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Those 48 saves led the NL. He has been perfect in the playoffs, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 5 saves. He might be the best closer in baseball right now.
Advantage: Giants
Other key members of bullpen:
Rangers: Darren O'Day (6-2, 2.03), Darren Oliver (Lefty; 1-2, 2.48), Alexi Ogando (4-1, 1.30)
Giants: Sergio Romo (5-3, 2.18), Santiago Casilla (7-2, 1.95), Javier Lopez (Lefty; 2-0, 1.42)
Advantage: Rangers
Prediction: Giants in 7- their starting pitching is better, and their hitting and bullpen aren't that much worse.
Catcher: Bengie Molina vs. Buster Posey
Molina is a 13-year veteran, and his age (35) definitely showed in '10. He hit just .249 with 12 doubles, 5 homers, 36 RBI, and just a .297 OBP in 118 games, ironically between the Giants and Rangers. But, he has played very well in the playoffs, hitting .357 with a homer and 2 RBI in the ALDS, and .313 with a homer and 5 RBI in the ALCS. He is still a good defensive catcher, as he posted a.993 Fld%, a 23% CS%, and just 4 passed balls. He still has some gas in the tank.
Posey, on the other hand, is playing his rookie season. And what a rookie season it was. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He has hit .282 with 3 RBI in the playoffs. Posey is also a very good diffensive catcher, as he posted a .991 Fld% in '10 with a 37% CS% and just 1 passed ball. He's a great player with a great career ahead of him.
Advantage: Giants
1st basemen: Mitch Moreland vs. Aubrey Huff
Moreland had a pretty good rookie season, hitting .255 with 4 doubles, 9 homers, 25 RBI, and a .364 OBP in 47 games. (Project thsoe numbers over a full season, and he would have hit .255 with 14 doubles, 31 homers, and 86 RBI.) He has hit .303 with 4 RBI in the playoffs. He has posted a pretty good .993 Fld% at 1B. He's a nice young player who has made Rangers fans all but forget Justin Smoak (traded in the Cliff Lee deal).
At 33, Huff is no longer in his prime, but if you looked at his numbers you wouldn't know. He had a great year in '10, hitting .290 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, and a .385 OBP in 157 games. He has done OK in the playoffs, hitting .256 with 4 RBI. He is a good defensive 1st baseman, as he posted a .996 Fld% in '10. Eventually, he's going to slow down, but not right now.
Advantage: Giants
2nd basemen: Ian Kinsler vs. Freddy Sanchez
Kinsler missed time with a groin injury, but still had a nice year. He hit .286 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 45 RBI, 15 SB, and a .382 OBP in 102 games. In '09, he went 30-30, hitting 31 homers and stealing 31 bases. He has had a great postseason, hitting .342 with 3 homers and 9 RBI. He is a pretty good defensive 2B, as he posted a slightly-above average .985 Fld%. He is a very good player and a feared hitter in the Rangers lineup.
Sanchez had a pretty good season in '10, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 111 games. He has hit .268 with an RBI in his first postseason. He is still a great defensive 2B, as he as posted a .991 Fld% in '10. He is hampered by a shoulder injury right now. Sanchez is a good player, especially in terms of BA and defense.
Advantage: Rangers
3rd basemen: Michael Young vs. Pablo Sandoval
Young had an great year in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doublles, 21 homers, 91 RBI, 99 runs, and a .330 OBP in 157 games. He has hit .255 with a homer and 7 RBI in the playoffs so far, but .333 in the ALCS. He's a slightly below average defensive 3B, as he posted a .950 Fld% there in '10. Young is still a great player, despite being past his prime and at his 3rd defensive position.
Sandoval had a very disappointing year in '10, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. That came one year after hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI and a .387 OBP in 153 games in '09. He has hit just .214 in the playoffs, but he had a key 2-run double in the NLCS. He's actualy a slighty above average 3B, as he posted a .961 Fld%. We know from '09 that Sandoval is a great player who can jump-start the Giants' lineup.
Advantage: Rangers
Shortstop: Elvis Andrus vs. Juan Uribe
Andrus had a nice Sophomore season in '10, hitting .265 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 35 RBI, 32 SB, 88 runs, and a .342 OBP in 147 games. He has hit .333 with 3 RBI and 7 SB in the playoffs, although he was picked off twice by the Yankees in the ALCS. He's an average defensive SS, as his .976 Fld% in '10 was .003 better than the league average at SS. He is a good leadoff hitter who sets the table for the big hitters behind him.
Suprisingly, almost shockingly, Uribe had the best season of his career as he entered his prime in '10. He hit just .248, but with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 85 RBI, and a .310 OBP in 148 games. But, he hit just .071 in the NLDS with an RBI and just ,214 with a homer and 3 RBI in the NLCS. He is a well above-average defensive SS, as he posted .984 Fld% there in '10, in addition to a .957 Fld% at 3B (slightly above average) and a 1.000 Fld% in 24 games at 2B. He's a good player.
Advantage: Toss-up. They're such different players.
Left Field: Nelson Cruz vs. Pat Burell
Cruz, despite missing time with a hamstring injury, had a great year in '10, hitting .318 with 31 doubles, 22 homers, 78 RBI, 17 SB, and a .374 OBP in 108 games. He's also been amazing in the playoffs, hitting .375 with 5 homers and 8 RBI. He's a below-average defender in RF (.979), but he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in LF during the regular season and has often played LF in the playoffs. He's a great player in the middle of the Texas lineup.
Burell had an OK year in '10, hitting .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between Tampa and Texas. He hit .200 with a homer and 3 RBI against the Braves in the NLDS, and .211 with an RBI against the Phillies, his former team, in the NLCS. He is an average fielder in LF, posting a .985 Fld%. Burell, at 33 years old, is in decline, but he still has some pop.
Advantage: Rangers
Centerfield: Josh Hamilton vs. Andres Torres:
Hamilton had a ridiculous year in '10, hitting .359 with 40 doubles, 32 homers, 100 RBI, 186 hits, 95 runs, and a .411 OBP in 133 games. He missed the vast majority of September with broken ribs that are still bothering him, at least to some extent. Not that it's possible to tell just from his playoff stats. After hitting just .111 with an RBI in the ALDS against the Rays, he exploded in the ALCS against the Yankees, hitting .350 with 4 homers and 7 RBI. He posted just a .979 Fld% in LF in '10, but a 1.000 Fld% in CF, where he has played in the playoffs. He is just an incredible player.
Torres had a good first full season in the big leagues at age 32. A former Ranger (8 games), Torres hit .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 SB, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. After hitting ,125 in the NLDS, he hit .350 in the NLCS. He has no homers or RBI's in the playoffs, and just 1 SB against 3 CS's. He is a great defensive CF, as he posted a .995 Fld% there in addition to 1.000 Fld%'s in RF and LF. He's a good player, but frankly, he's not anywhere near as good as Hamilton.
Advantage: Rangers
Right Field: David Murphy/Jeff Francoeur vs. Cody Ross
Murphy and Francoeur have been platooning in RF for the Rangers during the playoffs. Murphy, the lefty, hit .291 with 26 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 14 SB, and a .358 OBP in 138 games. He has hit .200 with a homer and 2 RBI in the playoffs so far. Francoeur, the righty, hit .249 with 18 doubles, 13 homers, 65 RBI, 8 SB, and a .300 OBP in 139 games between the Mets and Rangers. He has hit just .167 with an RBI in the playoffs. Murphy posted a .995 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions, while Francoeur, a one-time Gold Glover, posted a .988 Fld% in RF, but with 11 outfield assists, tops among NL right fielders. Murphy and Francoeur are OK players.
Ross hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 SB and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and the Giants. He's playing out of his mind in the playoffs right now, hitting .324 with 4 homers and 8 RBI. A natural CF (.994 career Fld%), Ross posted a below average .982 Fld% in RF. He's always been a good player (20 homers in '08 and '09), but right now he's becoming a playoff star.
Advantage: Giants
Total: Rangers 4, Giants 3, 1 toss-up
Vladimir Guerrero will be the DH for Texas. He had a truly great season, hitting .300 with 27 doubles, 29 homers, 115 RBI, 93 runs, and a .345 OBP. But, will the Rangers play him in RF in San Francisco? He posted just a .933 Fld% in 17 games in RF. He's a great hitter, but he could be just a pinch-hitter in San Francisco.
Pitchers:
Aces (Games 1 and 5 unless they go on short rest): Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum
Lee had somewhat of an off-year, going 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 185 K's in 28 starts and ironically 212.1 IP. He also had 7 complete games. Of course Lee is probably the best postseason pitcher ever. He went 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in the ALDS and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in the ALCS. For his career, he's 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in 8 starts. He's just ridiculous in the playoffs.
Lincecum also had an off-year '10, at least by his standards. The 2-time defending Cy Young Award winner went 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA and 231 K's (tops in the NL) in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's undoubtedly a great pitcher.
Advantage: Rangers
Number 2 starters (Games 2 and 6): C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Cain
Wilson had a great first full year as a starter. He went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 170 K's in 33 starts and 204 IP. He led the AL with 93 walks. He has 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a good pitcher, but he has to improve those playoff numbers.
Cain had a great season in '10, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA and 177 K's in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He has been untouchable, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts. He's a great pitcher that provides a very good 1-2 punch with Lincecum.
Advantage: Giants
Number 3 starters (games 3 and 7): Colby Lewis vs. Jonathan Sanchez
Lewis had a nice season in '10, going 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA and 196 K's in 32 starts and 202 IP. It was his first season in the majors since '07 because he was in Japan in '08 and '09. He has had an amazing postseason, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in 3 starts. He has played very well.
Sanchez had his first great year as a starter. He went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA and 205 K's in 33 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 193.1 IP. He has gone 0-1 with a 2.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a very good pitcher.
Advantage: Toss-up. Sanchez had a better regular season, but Lewis has been better in the playoffs.
Number 4 starters (game 4): Tommy Hunter vs. Madison Bumgarner
Hunter had a good year, going 13-4 with a 3.72 ERA and 68 K's in 22 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 128 innings. He missed April and May with an oblique injury. But, he has been killed in the playoffs, going 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA. He'll have to at least get back to his regular season numbers. He's an OK pitcher.
Bumgarner had a good year also, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA and 86 K's in 18 starts and 111 IP after being called up on June 26th. He has gone 0-0 with a 3.55 ERA in the playoffs. He's young, but he has pitched well.
Advantage: Giants
Total- Giants 4, Rangers 3 (let's say the 'advantage' pitchers win all their matchups and Lewis and Sanchez split their 2 games)
Bullpen:
Closer: Neftali Feliz vs. Brian Wilson
Feliz had a great rookie season, going 4-3 with a 2.73 ERA, 71 K's, and 40 saves in 70 relief appearances and 69.1 IP. He has gone 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA in the playoffs (no saves). He's a good young closer.
Wilson had a amazing season as the Giants' closer, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, and 48 saves in 70 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Those 48 saves led the NL. He has been perfect in the playoffs, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 5 saves. He might be the best closer in baseball right now.
Advantage: Giants
Other key members of bullpen:
Rangers: Darren O'Day (6-2, 2.03), Darren Oliver (Lefty; 1-2, 2.48), Alexi Ogando (4-1, 1.30)
Giants: Sergio Romo (5-3, 2.18), Santiago Casilla (7-2, 1.95), Javier Lopez (Lefty; 2-0, 1.42)
Advantage: Rangers
Prediction: Giants in 7- their starting pitching is better, and their hitting and bullpen aren't that much worse.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Should the Yankees have traded for Lee?
The Rangers acquired Cliff Lee in exchange for Justin Smoak and 3 other prospects. The Mariners thought it was a good offer, even better than the Yankees' offer of Jesus Montero and 3 other prospects. They must have thought that Smoak will be a star. Were they wrong?
Smoak was the 11th overall pick in the loaded first round of the 2008 MLB draft. There obviously were busts (most notably #1 overall pick Tim Beckham), but the players that have panned out are Pedro Alvarez (#2 overall), Brian Matusz (#4), Buster Posey (#5), and Gordon Beckham (#8). Ike Davis (#18) was drafted after Smoak. I realize that it's not completely fair to compare Smoak to the players, but let's do it anyway.
It took Alvarez just 1.5 seasons to get to the majors. He hit .288 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 126 games between Low-A Lynchburg and Double-A Altoona in '09. After hitting .277 with 15 doubles, 13 homers, 53 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 66 games for Triple-A Indianapolis, Alvarez was called up to the majors. Alvarez had a pretty good year after being called up on June 16th, hitting just .256, but with 21 doubles, 16 homers, and 64 RBI. His OBP was .326. He does need work defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at 3rd base. He will be just 23 in '11, so he will have time to develop into a better player both offensively and defensively at the major league level. Alvarez is a nice young player who will be a cornerstone of the Pirates for years to come.
Brian Matusz made it to the majors in under 1 season. After a dominating minor league season in '09 between Low-A Frederick and Double-A, Matusz made it to the majors at age 22. Matusz went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 121 K's in 19 starts and 113 innings in the minors, and 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 38 K's in 8 starts and and 44.2 IP in the majors. Matusz improved in '10, going 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA and 143 K's in 32 starts and 175.2 IP. Matusz was just 4-12 with a 5.28 ERA on August 13th, but went undefeated the rest of the year, going 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 8 starts. The Orioles won all 8 of those games. Matusz really has a promising future. Pretty soon he will be the Orioles' ace.
Buster Posey dominated the minors for parts of 3 seasons before making it to the majors at age 22. Unlike Alvarez and Matusz, Posey signed soon enough to play in '08. He played in 10 games between Rookie ball and SS-A Salem Keizer, hitting .351 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, and a .467 OBP. It was a sign of things to come. Posey had another great season in '09, hitting .325 with 31 doubles, 18 homers, 80 RBI, 84 runs, and a .416 OBP in 115 games between High-A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. But, Posey had 14 passed balls at catcher, so he began '10 at Fresno. He hit very well once again, hitting .349 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 32 RBI, and a .442 OBP in 47 games while only allowing one passed ball. He was then promoted to the majors, and is a candidate to win NL Rookie of the Year. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He posted a .991 Fld% at catcher, throwing out 37% of attempted base stealers, and allowing just 1 passed ball. He is a very talented player who will be the catcher for the Giants for a long time.
Gordon Beckham took just 1 full season in the minors to make the majors at age 22. After signing early enough to play in '08, Beckham hit .310 with 2 doubles, 3 homers, and 8 RBI, and a .365 OBP in 14 games at Low-A Kannapolis. It was a stepping stone to a great season. He hit .326 with 23 doubles, 4 homers, 25 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 45 games between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte before being promoted to the majors. He did OK in the majors, hitting .270 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 63 RBI, and a .347 OBP in 103 games. But, he posted a below-average .952 Fld% at 3rd base. He was the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year and finished 5th in the real voting. He had a bit of a sophmore slump in '10, hitting .252 with 25 doubles, 9 homers, 49 RBI, and a .317 OBP in 131 games. Part of the problem was that he was moved to 2nd base, where he posted a below average .981 Fld%. But, he hit .320 from July 20th to the end of the year. Whatever his problem was, he fixed it. He should be a White Sox' infielder for a long time. Despite his sub-par year, I wouldn't be too surprised if the White Sox lock him up long term.
Davis needed 1.5 full seasons in the minors before making the majors at age 23. He signed the earliest among this group, and ended up playing 58 games for SS-A Brooklyn and was a disappointment. He hit just .256 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 17 RBI, and a .326 OBP. But, that was the last time that Davis was a disappointment. He hit .298 in '09 between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton with 31 doubles, 20 homers, 71 RBI, and a .381 OBP in 114 games. After just 10 games for Triple-A Buffalo in '10 in which he hit .364 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 4 RBI, and a .500 OBP, Davis was promoted to the majors. He had a great rookie season, hitting .264 with 33 doubles, 19 homers, 71 RBI, and a .341 OBP in 147 games. He was right at the league average with a .993 Fld% at 1st base. I'll make a bold statement and say that he's the next David Wright. He'll be a fixture at 1st base for the Mets.
Well, I've gone through everybody else. So, how good is Smoak?
In his first taste of pro ball in '08, Smoak hit .304 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 6 RBI in 14 games at Low-A Clinton. He didn't make any errors in 10 games at 1st base. It was definitely a nice showing, albeit in such a short period of time.
In '09, Smoak worked his way all the way up to Triple-A. After hitting .667 with 2 homers and 5 RBI at Rookie ball, Smoak was promoted to Double-A Frisco where he hit .328 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, and a .449 OBP in 50 games. It was a great showing, and he appeared to be on the fast track to the majors. He was so good at Frisco that he was brought up to Triple-A Oklahoma City, but there he struggled. In 54 games, Smoak hit just .244 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, and 23 RBI. But, Smoak did post a .363 OBP,which was great when considering his Low BA. But, he was just 23 years old, so he could adjust to Triple-A in '10.
Did Smoak make that adjustment? Well, after 15 games at Oklahoma City, Smoak hit .300 with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 5 RBI before being rushed to the majors. Smoak had his moments with the Rangers, but mostly he struggled. He hit just .209, but with 10 doubles, 8 homers, and 34 RBI. He posted a .318 OBP. Then of course, he was traded to the Mariners in the Lee trade. He remained with the Mariners from July 10th to July 29th and struggled mightily. He hit just .159 with 1 double, 2 homers, and 5 RBI in 16 games. To compound the problem, he posted just a .169 OBP, walking once and striking out 23 skill. After that terrible showing, Smoak was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma. He did just OK for Tacoma, hitting .271 with 7 doubles, 7 homers, and 25 RBI, although he did post a .377 OBP. But, somehow the work at Triple-A helped him, and he was a different player when he came back to the majors on September 18th. He hit .340 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 14 games from September 18th to October 3rd. Overall in '10, Smoak hit .218 with 14 doubles, 13 homers, 48 RBI, and a .307 OBP in 100 games. It was a disappointment, but the Mariners hope his great finish to the year will carry over into '11. He will have 1 major league season under his belt (he will be 24), and the Mariners hope that experience will jump-start a great career.
Among the others, Smoak is certainly not the best right now. Posey is far and away the top player in this group, then Davis, Alvarez, and Beckham in that order before Smoak. But, does he have the ability to be a great player? Well, the Mariners must think so. If he really deserved the Teixeira comparisons he was getting while on the Rangers, then he will be a great player.
Will the Lee trade end up being a good trade for the Mariners? There are 3 other players that Seattle acquired, but the trade will end up being graded based on Smoak's performance. If he never becomes a star, it was a bad trade. As of now, if I were a Mariners fan, I would have wished for Lee to be traded to the Yankees for Montero.
Smoak was the 11th overall pick in the loaded first round of the 2008 MLB draft. There obviously were busts (most notably #1 overall pick Tim Beckham), but the players that have panned out are Pedro Alvarez (#2 overall), Brian Matusz (#4), Buster Posey (#5), and Gordon Beckham (#8). Ike Davis (#18) was drafted after Smoak. I realize that it's not completely fair to compare Smoak to the players, but let's do it anyway.
It took Alvarez just 1.5 seasons to get to the majors. He hit .288 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 126 games between Low-A Lynchburg and Double-A Altoona in '09. After hitting .277 with 15 doubles, 13 homers, 53 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 66 games for Triple-A Indianapolis, Alvarez was called up to the majors. Alvarez had a pretty good year after being called up on June 16th, hitting just .256, but with 21 doubles, 16 homers, and 64 RBI. His OBP was .326. He does need work defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at 3rd base. He will be just 23 in '11, so he will have time to develop into a better player both offensively and defensively at the major league level. Alvarez is a nice young player who will be a cornerstone of the Pirates for years to come.
Brian Matusz made it to the majors in under 1 season. After a dominating minor league season in '09 between Low-A Frederick and Double-A, Matusz made it to the majors at age 22. Matusz went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 121 K's in 19 starts and 113 innings in the minors, and 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 38 K's in 8 starts and and 44.2 IP in the majors. Matusz improved in '10, going 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA and 143 K's in 32 starts and 175.2 IP. Matusz was just 4-12 with a 5.28 ERA on August 13th, but went undefeated the rest of the year, going 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 8 starts. The Orioles won all 8 of those games. Matusz really has a promising future. Pretty soon he will be the Orioles' ace.
Buster Posey dominated the minors for parts of 3 seasons before making it to the majors at age 22. Unlike Alvarez and Matusz, Posey signed soon enough to play in '08. He played in 10 games between Rookie ball and SS-A Salem Keizer, hitting .351 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, and a .467 OBP. It was a sign of things to come. Posey had another great season in '09, hitting .325 with 31 doubles, 18 homers, 80 RBI, 84 runs, and a .416 OBP in 115 games between High-A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. But, Posey had 14 passed balls at catcher, so he began '10 at Fresno. He hit very well once again, hitting .349 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 32 RBI, and a .442 OBP in 47 games while only allowing one passed ball. He was then promoted to the majors, and is a candidate to win NL Rookie of the Year. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He posted a .991 Fld% at catcher, throwing out 37% of attempted base stealers, and allowing just 1 passed ball. He is a very talented player who will be the catcher for the Giants for a long time.
Gordon Beckham took just 1 full season in the minors to make the majors at age 22. After signing early enough to play in '08, Beckham hit .310 with 2 doubles, 3 homers, and 8 RBI, and a .365 OBP in 14 games at Low-A Kannapolis. It was a stepping stone to a great season. He hit .326 with 23 doubles, 4 homers, 25 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 45 games between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte before being promoted to the majors. He did OK in the majors, hitting .270 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 63 RBI, and a .347 OBP in 103 games. But, he posted a below-average .952 Fld% at 3rd base. He was the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year and finished 5th in the real voting. He had a bit of a sophmore slump in '10, hitting .252 with 25 doubles, 9 homers, 49 RBI, and a .317 OBP in 131 games. Part of the problem was that he was moved to 2nd base, where he posted a below average .981 Fld%. But, he hit .320 from July 20th to the end of the year. Whatever his problem was, he fixed it. He should be a White Sox' infielder for a long time. Despite his sub-par year, I wouldn't be too surprised if the White Sox lock him up long term.
Davis needed 1.5 full seasons in the minors before making the majors at age 23. He signed the earliest among this group, and ended up playing 58 games for SS-A Brooklyn and was a disappointment. He hit just .256 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 17 RBI, and a .326 OBP. But, that was the last time that Davis was a disappointment. He hit .298 in '09 between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton with 31 doubles, 20 homers, 71 RBI, and a .381 OBP in 114 games. After just 10 games for Triple-A Buffalo in '10 in which he hit .364 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 4 RBI, and a .500 OBP, Davis was promoted to the majors. He had a great rookie season, hitting .264 with 33 doubles, 19 homers, 71 RBI, and a .341 OBP in 147 games. He was right at the league average with a .993 Fld% at 1st base. I'll make a bold statement and say that he's the next David Wright. He'll be a fixture at 1st base for the Mets.
Well, I've gone through everybody else. So, how good is Smoak?
In his first taste of pro ball in '08, Smoak hit .304 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 6 RBI in 14 games at Low-A Clinton. He didn't make any errors in 10 games at 1st base. It was definitely a nice showing, albeit in such a short period of time.
In '09, Smoak worked his way all the way up to Triple-A. After hitting .667 with 2 homers and 5 RBI at Rookie ball, Smoak was promoted to Double-A Frisco where he hit .328 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, and a .449 OBP in 50 games. It was a great showing, and he appeared to be on the fast track to the majors. He was so good at Frisco that he was brought up to Triple-A Oklahoma City, but there he struggled. In 54 games, Smoak hit just .244 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, and 23 RBI. But, Smoak did post a .363 OBP,which was great when considering his Low BA. But, he was just 23 years old, so he could adjust to Triple-A in '10.
Did Smoak make that adjustment? Well, after 15 games at Oklahoma City, Smoak hit .300 with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 5 RBI before being rushed to the majors. Smoak had his moments with the Rangers, but mostly he struggled. He hit just .209, but with 10 doubles, 8 homers, and 34 RBI. He posted a .318 OBP. Then of course, he was traded to the Mariners in the Lee trade. He remained with the Mariners from July 10th to July 29th and struggled mightily. He hit just .159 with 1 double, 2 homers, and 5 RBI in 16 games. To compound the problem, he posted just a .169 OBP, walking once and striking out 23 skill. After that terrible showing, Smoak was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma. He did just OK for Tacoma, hitting .271 with 7 doubles, 7 homers, and 25 RBI, although he did post a .377 OBP. But, somehow the work at Triple-A helped him, and he was a different player when he came back to the majors on September 18th. He hit .340 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 14 games from September 18th to October 3rd. Overall in '10, Smoak hit .218 with 14 doubles, 13 homers, 48 RBI, and a .307 OBP in 100 games. It was a disappointment, but the Mariners hope his great finish to the year will carry over into '11. He will have 1 major league season under his belt (he will be 24), and the Mariners hope that experience will jump-start a great career.
Among the others, Smoak is certainly not the best right now. Posey is far and away the top player in this group, then Davis, Alvarez, and Beckham in that order before Smoak. But, does he have the ability to be a great player? Well, the Mariners must think so. If he really deserved the Teixeira comparisons he was getting while on the Rangers, then he will be a great player.
Will the Lee trade end up being a good trade for the Mariners? There are 3 other players that Seattle acquired, but the trade will end up being graded based on Smoak's performance. If he never becomes a star, it was a bad trade. As of now, if I were a Mariners fan, I would have wished for Lee to be traded to the Yankees for Montero.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
The roller coaster that is Cliff Lee's career
We all know Cliff Lee as that dominant starter with great control, but he certainly wasn't always like that. A 4th round pick by the Expos, Lee had a terrible pro debut in 2000, going 1-4 with a 5.24 ERA in 11 starts for Short Season-A Cape Fear. He did strike out 63 batters in 44.2 IP, but he also allowed 52 hits and 36 walks. But, in 2001, Lee dominated for High-A Jupiter. He went 6-7, but he posted a 2.79 ERA and 132 K's in 20 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 109.2 IP. He allowed just 78 hits and 46 walks and posted a great 2.8 K/H. After going 7-2 with a 3.23 ERA and 105 K's in 15 starts for Double-A Harrisburg, he was traded in the blockbuster deal that sent Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Lee Stevens to the Indians in exchange for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew. After struggling at Double-A Akron in 3 starts (5.40 ERA), he was promoted to Triple-A Buffalo and went 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 8 starts. He had a brief 'cup of coffee' in September for the Indians, going 0-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 2 starts. In '03, he went 7-1 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 starts at 3 different levels of the minors (including 6-1, 3.27 at Triple-A) before being promoted to the majors. He went 3-3 with a 3.61 ERA in 9 starts for Cleveland. In '04, his first full season in the big leagues, Lee certainly had his ups and downs. He went 14-8 with 161 K's in 33 starts and 179 innings, but he posted a 5.43 ERA and gave up 188 hits. He went 9-1 with a 3.77 ERA in the first half, but 5-7 with a 7.91 ERA in the second half. But, he closed the season well, winning his last 2 starts and posting a 2.03 ERA.
The great finish in '04 carried over into '05 for Lee. He had his first great season, going 18-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 143 K's in 33 starts and 202 IP. He allowed just 194 hits. He was much more consistent, going 9-4 with a 3.89 ERA in the first half and 9-1 with a 3.66 ERA in th, e second half. But, in '06, the consistency disappeared. He went 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA and 129 K's in 33 starts and 200.2 IP. He just allowed way too many hits (224). Lee went 8-6 with a 4.76 ERA in the first half before rebounding to go 6-5 with a 3.96 ERA in the 2nd half. In '07, Lee just plain collapsed. He went 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA and just 66 K's in 16 starts, 4 relief appearances and 97.1 IP. He allowed 112 hits, once again over a hit per inning. All 8 of his loses came on streaks of 4 straight loses in 4 consecutive starts. He was so bad that he was sent down for 10 starts in the minors and was left off Cleveland's postseason roster. Lee's strikeout total went down every year from '04 to '07. Although he proved he could be a good pitcher without striking too many batters out in '05, he allowed too many hits in '04, '06, and '07 to be successful without striking out batters at a higher rate.
Lee finally got the memo to give up less hits in '08. In doing so, he dominated, going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 170 K's in 31 starts and 223.1 IP on his way to the AL Cy Young Award. He allowed just 214 hits and 34 walks. Lee seemingly carried the success into '09, going just 7-9, but with a 3.14 ERA and 105 K's in 22 starts for the Indians before being traded to the Phillies. But, Lee allowed 165 hits in 152 IP. He just pitched with runners on, not allowing many of them to score. For the Phillies, he actually did worse. He went 7-4, but with a 3.39 ERA and 74 K's in 12 starts and 79.2 IP. But, he was dominant in the postseason. In 5 postseason starts, he went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA, including 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA against the Yankees in the World Series. He struck out 33 and walked only 6 in 40.1 IP. Still, after the season, he was traded to the Mariners shortly when the Phillies acquired Roy Halladay. In '09 for the Mariners, he regained his '08 form. After missing the first month of the season with an abdominal strain, he went 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 89 K's in 13 starts and 103.2 IP. But, the most amazing stat of all was that he walked just 6 batters. Six! His K/BB ratio was 14.83, which would be the best ever for a full season. (His current K/BB ratio of 13.42 between the Mariners and Rangers would still be the best ever by a wide margin.) He was then traded to the Rangers on July 9th, and he's been a complete disaster. He has gone just 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA and 72 K's in 11 starts and 80.2 IP. He has allowed 85 hits, over a hit per inning, but he has walked just 6 batters. But, the Rangers might have found the reason Lee has struggled: lower back inflamation. Lee got an injection and will try to get back on track against the Yankees tomorrow.
Lee has had good years and bad years, but at the end of the day he has a 100-60 career record with a 3.89 ERA. He has gone from demoted to the minor leagues to AL Cy Young and from a dominant pitcher for Seattle to a disaster for Texas. He has been good overall, but he has shown inconsistency. Would you want to commit to this guy for 5 years? The Yankees and the other bidders when Lee will be a free agent this offseason will have to make that decision.
The great finish in '04 carried over into '05 for Lee. He had his first great season, going 18-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 143 K's in 33 starts and 202 IP. He allowed just 194 hits. He was much more consistent, going 9-4 with a 3.89 ERA in the first half and 9-1 with a 3.66 ERA in th, e second half. But, in '06, the consistency disappeared. He went 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA and 129 K's in 33 starts and 200.2 IP. He just allowed way too many hits (224). Lee went 8-6 with a 4.76 ERA in the first half before rebounding to go 6-5 with a 3.96 ERA in the 2nd half. In '07, Lee just plain collapsed. He went 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA and just 66 K's in 16 starts, 4 relief appearances and 97.1 IP. He allowed 112 hits, once again over a hit per inning. All 8 of his loses came on streaks of 4 straight loses in 4 consecutive starts. He was so bad that he was sent down for 10 starts in the minors and was left off Cleveland's postseason roster. Lee's strikeout total went down every year from '04 to '07. Although he proved he could be a good pitcher without striking too many batters out in '05, he allowed too many hits in '04, '06, and '07 to be successful without striking out batters at a higher rate.
Lee finally got the memo to give up less hits in '08. In doing so, he dominated, going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 170 K's in 31 starts and 223.1 IP on his way to the AL Cy Young Award. He allowed just 214 hits and 34 walks. Lee seemingly carried the success into '09, going just 7-9, but with a 3.14 ERA and 105 K's in 22 starts for the Indians before being traded to the Phillies. But, Lee allowed 165 hits in 152 IP. He just pitched with runners on, not allowing many of them to score. For the Phillies, he actually did worse. He went 7-4, but with a 3.39 ERA and 74 K's in 12 starts and 79.2 IP. But, he was dominant in the postseason. In 5 postseason starts, he went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA, including 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA against the Yankees in the World Series. He struck out 33 and walked only 6 in 40.1 IP. Still, after the season, he was traded to the Mariners shortly when the Phillies acquired Roy Halladay. In '09 for the Mariners, he regained his '08 form. After missing the first month of the season with an abdominal strain, he went 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 89 K's in 13 starts and 103.2 IP. But, the most amazing stat of all was that he walked just 6 batters. Six! His K/BB ratio was 14.83, which would be the best ever for a full season. (His current K/BB ratio of 13.42 between the Mariners and Rangers would still be the best ever by a wide margin.) He was then traded to the Rangers on July 9th, and he's been a complete disaster. He has gone just 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA and 72 K's in 11 starts and 80.2 IP. He has allowed 85 hits, over a hit per inning, but he has walked just 6 batters. But, the Rangers might have found the reason Lee has struggled: lower back inflamation. Lee got an injection and will try to get back on track against the Yankees tomorrow.
Lee has had good years and bad years, but at the end of the day he has a 100-60 career record with a 3.89 ERA. He has gone from demoted to the minor leagues to AL Cy Young and from a dominant pitcher for Seattle to a disaster for Texas. He has been good overall, but he has shown inconsistency. Would you want to commit to this guy for 5 years? The Yankees and the other bidders when Lee will be a free agent this offseason will have to make that decision.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Should the Yankees have traded for Lee?
Just looking at this title of this post, you're wondering what the heck I'll walking about. Didn't the Mariners call off the trade, not the Yankees? Let me explain. The trade was all but settled. Cliff Lee to the Yanks for minor leaguers Jesus Montero, a catcher, David Adams, a 2nd baseman, and Zach McAllister, a RHP. Apparently, that deal fell through because Adams is on the 7-day DL with a high ankle sprain and the Mariners were worried. The Yankees offered to switch Adams out for a different prospect (I would guess minor league INF Eduardo Nunez), but the Mariners wanted another pitching prospect also (Ivan Nova or Jeremy Bleich) and the price was too high. The Yankees pulled out of the trade. Then, the Rangers swooped in and acquired Lee and reliever Mark Lowe in exchange for Justin Smoak, a rookie 1st baseman, and minor league RHP's Josh Lueke and RHP Blake Beavan, along with minor league 2nd baseman Matthew Lawson.
Let's look at the players that the Yankee would have traded to Seattle for Lee. Should they pulled the trigger on the trade?
Lee has been ridiculous this year, going 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 89 K's in 13 starts and 103.2 IP. He has walked just 6 batters, and has 5 complete games including 1 shutout. He has been incredible.
Montero is hitting .253 at Triple-A Scranton with 19 doubles, 6 homers, 35 RBI, and a .329 OBP in 77 games. In '09, he hit .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. His '09 season solidified him as a top prospect. In fact, Montero was considered the top prospect in the Yankees' system enering this year by Baseball America. Montero, just 20 years old, is not considered to have a future as a catcher in the big leagues. By staying within the Yankee system, he remains the Yankees' DH of the future if nothing else.
Adams is hitting .309 at Double-A Trenton with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, 5 SB, and a .393 OBP in 39 games. In '09, Adams hit .286 with 40 doubles, 7 homers, 75 RBI, 8 triples, 11 SB, and a .373 OBP in 132 games between Low-A Charleston and High-A Trenton. That season solidified Adams as the Yankees' 22nd best prospect in their system entering this year according to Baseball America. Adams, a third round pick by the Yankees in '08, is considered to be a decent defender. Adams was definitely an X-factor in this trade because after the Mariners made the Yankees pull him out of the trade because of his injury, the Mariners asked for 2 players to replace him. Adams, already 23 years old, doesn't seem to be young enough to have a future as a starter in the Yankee infield.
McAllister has gone 7-5 at Triple-A Scranton with a 4.45 ERA and 57 K's in 17 starts and 95 IP. He was the Yankees 5th rated prospect by Baseball America entering this year after going 7-5 with a 2.23 ERA and 96 K's in 22 starts and 121 IP for Double-A Trenton in '09. McAllister, 22 years old, was a 3rd round draft pick out of high school in '06. He certainly has a chance for a spot in the Yankee rotation at some point.
Nunez is hitting .304 at Triple-A Scranton, with 19 doubles, 3 homers, 40 RBI, 18 SB, and a .352 OBP in 86 games. He was the Yankees' 14th best prospect by Baseball America entering this year after hitting .322 with 26 doubles, 9 homers, 55 RBI, 19 SB, and a .349 OBP in 123 games for Double-A Trenton in '09. Nunez, who recently turned 23, is a solid defender who has played mostly SS in the minors. He also has experience at 2nd base and 3rd base. Nunez is probably going to be a utility player for the Yankees in a year or two.
Nova has gone 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 73 K's in 16 starts and 97.2 IP for Triple-A Scranton. In a brief major league call-up, he made 2 relief appearances, giving up no runs on 4 hits in 3 IP. He was the Yankees' 16th best prospect entering this year by Baseball America after going 6-8 with a 3.68 ERA and 90 K's in 24 starts and 139.1 IP between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton. He will also be competing for the Yankee rotation in a year or two.
Bleich, a 23 year old lefty, has gone 3-2 at Double-A Trenton this year, with a 4.79 ERA and 26 K's in 8 starts and 41.1 IP. He was the Yankees' 9th best prospect entering this year by Baseball America after going 9-10 with a 4.86 ERA and 116 K's in 27 starts and 144.1 IP between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. He has good stuff, but has had some control problems. He seems at least 3 years away from having any impact in the majors.
So, in the original trade, the Yankees would have given up their best, 5th best, and 22nd best prospects in exchange for a perennial Cy Young candidate. That sounds like a fair trade. But, when you take out the 22nd prospect and put in the 14th best prospect and the 9th or 16th best prospect, it would seem that the Yankees would be giving away too much. Maybe pulling out of the trade could be a good move by the Yankees. They can keep their prospects and sign Lee this offseason.
Let's look at the players that the Yankee would have traded to Seattle for Lee. Should they pulled the trigger on the trade?
Lee has been ridiculous this year, going 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 89 K's in 13 starts and 103.2 IP. He has walked just 6 batters, and has 5 complete games including 1 shutout. He has been incredible.
Montero is hitting .253 at Triple-A Scranton with 19 doubles, 6 homers, 35 RBI, and a .329 OBP in 77 games. In '09, he hit .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. His '09 season solidified him as a top prospect. In fact, Montero was considered the top prospect in the Yankees' system enering this year by Baseball America. Montero, just 20 years old, is not considered to have a future as a catcher in the big leagues. By staying within the Yankee system, he remains the Yankees' DH of the future if nothing else.
Adams is hitting .309 at Double-A Trenton with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, 5 SB, and a .393 OBP in 39 games. In '09, Adams hit .286 with 40 doubles, 7 homers, 75 RBI, 8 triples, 11 SB, and a .373 OBP in 132 games between Low-A Charleston and High-A Trenton. That season solidified Adams as the Yankees' 22nd best prospect in their system entering this year according to Baseball America. Adams, a third round pick by the Yankees in '08, is considered to be a decent defender. Adams was definitely an X-factor in this trade because after the Mariners made the Yankees pull him out of the trade because of his injury, the Mariners asked for 2 players to replace him. Adams, already 23 years old, doesn't seem to be young enough to have a future as a starter in the Yankee infield.
McAllister has gone 7-5 at Triple-A Scranton with a 4.45 ERA and 57 K's in 17 starts and 95 IP. He was the Yankees 5th rated prospect by Baseball America entering this year after going 7-5 with a 2.23 ERA and 96 K's in 22 starts and 121 IP for Double-A Trenton in '09. McAllister, 22 years old, was a 3rd round draft pick out of high school in '06. He certainly has a chance for a spot in the Yankee rotation at some point.
Nunez is hitting .304 at Triple-A Scranton, with 19 doubles, 3 homers, 40 RBI, 18 SB, and a .352 OBP in 86 games. He was the Yankees' 14th best prospect by Baseball America entering this year after hitting .322 with 26 doubles, 9 homers, 55 RBI, 19 SB, and a .349 OBP in 123 games for Double-A Trenton in '09. Nunez, who recently turned 23, is a solid defender who has played mostly SS in the minors. He also has experience at 2nd base and 3rd base. Nunez is probably going to be a utility player for the Yankees in a year or two.
Nova has gone 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 73 K's in 16 starts and 97.2 IP for Triple-A Scranton. In a brief major league call-up, he made 2 relief appearances, giving up no runs on 4 hits in 3 IP. He was the Yankees' 16th best prospect entering this year by Baseball America after going 6-8 with a 3.68 ERA and 90 K's in 24 starts and 139.1 IP between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton. He will also be competing for the Yankee rotation in a year or two.
Bleich, a 23 year old lefty, has gone 3-2 at Double-A Trenton this year, with a 4.79 ERA and 26 K's in 8 starts and 41.1 IP. He was the Yankees' 9th best prospect entering this year by Baseball America after going 9-10 with a 4.86 ERA and 116 K's in 27 starts and 144.1 IP between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. He has good stuff, but has had some control problems. He seems at least 3 years away from having any impact in the majors.
So, in the original trade, the Yankees would have given up their best, 5th best, and 22nd best prospects in exchange for a perennial Cy Young candidate. That sounds like a fair trade. But, when you take out the 22nd prospect and put in the 14th best prospect and the 9th or 16th best prospect, it would seem that the Yankees would be giving away too much. Maybe pulling out of the trade could be a good move by the Yankees. They can keep their prospects and sign Lee this offseason.
Monday, June 7, 2010
Jon Weber: a story of perseverence that just didn't work out
You might have heard of Jon Weber. He is a player who had an incredible spring training this year for the Yankees, but didn't make the team. That's been the story of his entire career- just missed.
Jon Weber was signed by the Reds in 1999 as an undrafted free agent out of Texas Tech University. He just missed being drafted. He started out in the Reds' Rookie ball team, the Billings Mustangs. He hit .238 with 6 doubles, 5 homers, 17 RBI, 16 runs, and a .365 OBP in 22 games. He showed an ability to be a good run producer, but his .238 average was too low. In 2000, he hit just .221 in 1087 games with the Low-A Clinton Lumber Kings, with 14 doubles, 6 homers, 34 RBI, 8 SB, 60 runs, and a .333 OBP. His run producing ability was his only good sign in '99, but he couldn't even do that in 2000, so the Reds released him. Weber signed with the Canton Crocodiles of the independent Frontier League. He did much better with Canton in '01, hitting .307 with 15 doubles, 18 homers, 69 RBI, 16 SB, 60 runs, and a .382 OBP in 82 games. For some reason, no major league team signed him and instead he signed with the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks of the independent Northern League. In '02 with the Redhawks, Weber hit .296 with 30 doubles, 13 homers, 52 RBI, 11 SB, and a .356 OBP in 90 games. No major league team signed Weber again. I find it really amazing that he didn't give up right at this point and pursue another career, but he kept persevering and kept playing.
In '03, Weber started the year with the Redhawks once again, hitting .309 with 8 doubles, 11 homers, 48 RBI, 14 SB, 46 runs, and a .408 OBP in 52 games. Finally, Weber was signed by a major league team, the Oakland A's, and he was assigned to the High-A Modesto A's. He did very well in 35 games with Modesto, hitting .361 with 10 doubles, 7 homers, 38 RBI, 2 SB (Oakland's philosophy is Moneyball), 28 runs, and a .394 OBP. He averaged over 1 RBI per game with Modesto, which is very good. The next year in '04, Weber was assigned to the Double-A Midland RockHounds to start the year. He hit .280 in 111 games at Midland, with 24 doubles, 15 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, 64 runs, and a .356 OBP. He then was promoted to the Triple-A Sacremento River Cats and hit .341 with 4 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, 9 runs, and a .383 OBP in 19 games. Still, the A's got rid of him and he signed with the Dodgers. He was assigned to the Double-A Jacksonville Suns. In '05 with the Suns, he hit .300 with 27 doubles, 11 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, 81 runs, and a .369 OBP in 117 games. He also made his first career appearance on the mound, giving up 1 run on no hits and 3 walks in .2 innings for a 13.50 ERA. Weber promoted to the Triple-A Las Vegas 51's in '06, but he hit just .258 with 18 doubles, 2 homers, 31 RBI, 9 SB, 39 runs, and a .333 OBP in 82 games. He was released, and he signed with the Diamondbacks organization. He played much better with the Tuscon Sidewinders, Arizona's Triple-A franchise than he did with the 51's. He hit .321 with 18 doubles, 5 homers, 27 RBI, 26 runs, and a .374 OBP in 46 games. He was not retained by the D-backs, and he returned to the independent Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks for the '07 season. Weber was on the Triple-A teams of 3 different major league franchises in a span of 3 years, but he still wasn't called up to the majors. He just missed again.
In '07 with the Redhawks, Weber hit .283 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 10 RBI, 2 SB, 10 runs, and a .371 OBP in 16 games before being signed by the Rangers and being assigned to their High-A team, the Bakersfield Blaze. Weber hit .356 with the Blaze with 14 doubles, 5 homers, 25 RBI, 9 SB, 34 runs, and a .416 OBP in 37 games before being traded to the Devil Rays for cash and assigned to their Triple-A franchise, the Durham Bulls. Weber hit .265 as a member of the Bulls, with 5 doubles, 3 homers, 21 RBI, 20 runs, and a .360 OBP in 39 games. Weber, who was 30 years old at that time, was retained by the Rays organization after the year (they had just changed their name). In '08 with Durham, Weber once again hit .265, but this time with 24 doubles, 13 homers, 51 RBI, 11 SB, 58 runs, and a .354 OBP in 108 games. Still, the Rays kept Weber for the '09 season. In '09, Weber had his best year since '04, hitting .302 with 46 doubles, 14 homers, 69 RBI, 63 runs, and a .382 OBP. Despite his great year, he was not called up to the majors. After the year he signed a minor league contract with the Yankees.
Weber had a spring training to remember in '10. He hit .452 with 4 doubles and 6 RBI in 18 games. He even won the James P. Dawson award for the best Yankee rookie (remember, Weber still hasn't made the majors) at spring training. But, being a left handed hitter, he didn't make the team. Just missed.
One day. I hope that day comes for him. He also wasn't called up after Curtis Granderson was injured, giving way to Greg Golson. So far in '10 with the Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre Yankees, Weber has hit .258 with 7 doubles, 0 homers, 11 RBI, 18 runs, and a .333 OBP in 47 games.
"Best time in my life and my career that I've ever had. I made it to the final week with the New York Yankees. I'm not righthanded, I'm lefthanded. I have to stay positive, stay focused and hopefully one day I'll get the call."- Jon Weber on his amazing 2010 spring training
One day. I hope that one day comes for him. It won't be with the Yankees- he was released on June 2nd.
Jon Weber was signed by the Reds in 1999 as an undrafted free agent out of Texas Tech University. He just missed being drafted. He started out in the Reds' Rookie ball team, the Billings Mustangs. He hit .238 with 6 doubles, 5 homers, 17 RBI, 16 runs, and a .365 OBP in 22 games. He showed an ability to be a good run producer, but his .238 average was too low. In 2000, he hit just .221 in 1087 games with the Low-A Clinton Lumber Kings, with 14 doubles, 6 homers, 34 RBI, 8 SB, 60 runs, and a .333 OBP. His run producing ability was his only good sign in '99, but he couldn't even do that in 2000, so the Reds released him. Weber signed with the Canton Crocodiles of the independent Frontier League. He did much better with Canton in '01, hitting .307 with 15 doubles, 18 homers, 69 RBI, 16 SB, 60 runs, and a .382 OBP in 82 games. For some reason, no major league team signed him and instead he signed with the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks of the independent Northern League. In '02 with the Redhawks, Weber hit .296 with 30 doubles, 13 homers, 52 RBI, 11 SB, and a .356 OBP in 90 games. No major league team signed Weber again. I find it really amazing that he didn't give up right at this point and pursue another career, but he kept persevering and kept playing.
In '03, Weber started the year with the Redhawks once again, hitting .309 with 8 doubles, 11 homers, 48 RBI, 14 SB, 46 runs, and a .408 OBP in 52 games. Finally, Weber was signed by a major league team, the Oakland A's, and he was assigned to the High-A Modesto A's. He did very well in 35 games with Modesto, hitting .361 with 10 doubles, 7 homers, 38 RBI, 2 SB (Oakland's philosophy is Moneyball), 28 runs, and a .394 OBP. He averaged over 1 RBI per game with Modesto, which is very good. The next year in '04, Weber was assigned to the Double-A Midland RockHounds to start the year. He hit .280 in 111 games at Midland, with 24 doubles, 15 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, 64 runs, and a .356 OBP. He then was promoted to the Triple-A Sacremento River Cats and hit .341 with 4 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, 9 runs, and a .383 OBP in 19 games. Still, the A's got rid of him and he signed with the Dodgers. He was assigned to the Double-A Jacksonville Suns. In '05 with the Suns, he hit .300 with 27 doubles, 11 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, 81 runs, and a .369 OBP in 117 games. He also made his first career appearance on the mound, giving up 1 run on no hits and 3 walks in .2 innings for a 13.50 ERA. Weber promoted to the Triple-A Las Vegas 51's in '06, but he hit just .258 with 18 doubles, 2 homers, 31 RBI, 9 SB, 39 runs, and a .333 OBP in 82 games. He was released, and he signed with the Diamondbacks organization. He played much better with the Tuscon Sidewinders, Arizona's Triple-A franchise than he did with the 51's. He hit .321 with 18 doubles, 5 homers, 27 RBI, 26 runs, and a .374 OBP in 46 games. He was not retained by the D-backs, and he returned to the independent Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks for the '07 season. Weber was on the Triple-A teams of 3 different major league franchises in a span of 3 years, but he still wasn't called up to the majors. He just missed again.
In '07 with the Redhawks, Weber hit .283 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 10 RBI, 2 SB, 10 runs, and a .371 OBP in 16 games before being signed by the Rangers and being assigned to their High-A team, the Bakersfield Blaze. Weber hit .356 with the Blaze with 14 doubles, 5 homers, 25 RBI, 9 SB, 34 runs, and a .416 OBP in 37 games before being traded to the Devil Rays for cash and assigned to their Triple-A franchise, the Durham Bulls. Weber hit .265 as a member of the Bulls, with 5 doubles, 3 homers, 21 RBI, 20 runs, and a .360 OBP in 39 games. Weber, who was 30 years old at that time, was retained by the Rays organization after the year (they had just changed their name). In '08 with Durham, Weber once again hit .265, but this time with 24 doubles, 13 homers, 51 RBI, 11 SB, 58 runs, and a .354 OBP in 108 games. Still, the Rays kept Weber for the '09 season. In '09, Weber had his best year since '04, hitting .302 with 46 doubles, 14 homers, 69 RBI, 63 runs, and a .382 OBP. Despite his great year, he was not called up to the majors. After the year he signed a minor league contract with the Yankees.
Weber had a spring training to remember in '10. He hit .452 with 4 doubles and 6 RBI in 18 games. He even won the James P. Dawson award for the best Yankee rookie (remember, Weber still hasn't made the majors) at spring training. But, being a left handed hitter, he didn't make the team. Just missed.
One day. I hope that day comes for him. He also wasn't called up after Curtis Granderson was injured, giving way to Greg Golson. So far in '10 with the Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre Yankees, Weber has hit .258 with 7 doubles, 0 homers, 11 RBI, 18 runs, and a .333 OBP in 47 games.
"Best time in my life and my career that I've ever had. I made it to the final week with the New York Yankees. I'm not righthanded, I'm lefthanded. I have to stay positive, stay focused and hopefully one day I'll get the call."- Jon Weber on his amazing 2010 spring training
One day. I hope that one day comes for him. It won't be with the Yankees- he was released on June 2nd.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
With Granderson hurt, how's the Yankee outfield situation going to look?
Curtis Granderson was placed on the 15-day DL today with a groin injury. What is the Yankee outfield going to look like without him?
RF: Nick Swisher has gotten off to a pretty good start, hitting .259 with 3 homers, 13 RBI, and a .348 OBP, but there's no reason to think that he won't be able to put up numbers similar to his '09 numbers (.249 BA, 29 homers, 82 RBI). He's currently on pace to hit 22 homers with 96 RBI. The Yankees would undoubtedly be happy with that. He has not made an error yet in right field, so he has an 1.000 Fld%. His primary backup in RF is Randy Winn, who has been a complete disaster so far. He has hit just .077 (1 hit in 13 at-bats) with 0 homers and 0 RBI. He also not made an error yet for an 1.000 Fld%. The Yankees have a pretty good situation in RF right now.
CF: Up until now, Curtis Granderson has been the starting centerfielder for the Yankees. He has hit .225 with 2 homers, 7 RBI, 4 SB, and a .310 OBP. He has also hasn't made an error yet. After a hot start the first series in Boston (.333 BA, 2 homers, 2 RBI), Granderson has been a disappointment, hitting .206 with 0 homers and 5 RBI. Yes I know he was in a slump, and it's only the beginning of May, but there was some reason to be worried. Hopefully Granderson will be better when he comes back. Brett Gardner will be the starting CF now. Gardner has gotten off to a good start, hitting .333 with 0 homers, 7 RBI, 10 SB, and a .397 OBP. He's on pace to steal 74 bases! Gardner has made 1 error in the outfield, so he has a .974 Fld%. That percentage should improve over time, as Gardner is a very good fielder. Winn can also play CF. With Granderson out and Gardner in, the Yanks have a good situation in CF.
LF: Gardner has been the primary starter in LF so far, but because he is moving to CF because of the Granderson injury, Marcus Thames will step in as the primary left fielder. He is hitting .550 with 1 homer, 2 RBI, and a .650 OBP, playing in only 9 games so far. All but 1 of his at-bats so far have been against lefties, so Winn should get at least some starts against righties. During his career, Thames has hit .266 versus lefties and .233 versus righties. Thames has not yet made an error in the outfield. It will be interesting to see how Thames does in a starting role.
The Yankee outfield is definitely worse without Granderson, but the current guys should be okay. But, If the Yanks need to call up another outfielder from the minors, it would probably be Greg Golson. Golson is hitting .275 with 2 homers, 7 RBI, 4 SB, and a .296 OBP at Triple-A. He has stolen at least 20 bases in the minors every season since '05. He has not yet made an error at CF or LF. He also played RF last year at Triple-A for the Rangers. I wrote about the details of his acquisition by the Yankees here: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/554465-yankees-rangers-trade. He isn't a very good player, but maybe he could hit better than the .077 that Winn is hitting right now. In conclusion, without Granderson the Yanks still have a pretty good outfield, and if necessary, they have another decent outfielder waiting at Triple-A.
Friday, April 30, 2010
What's the history of Teixeira's struggles in April?
Mark Teixeira is hitting just .139 with 2 homers and 9 RBI's so far this April. Has he always been this bad in April?
In '09 with A-rod injured, Teixeira hit .200 in April with 3 homers and 10 RBI for the Yanks. But, in '08 he hit a much better .273 with 4 homers and 17 SB in April for the Braves. In fact, that year, he hit better in April than he did in May as he hit .268 in May in '08. Was the April slump only a thing that Teix has had with the Yankees?
In '07 with Texas in April, Teixeira hit .231 with 2 homers and just 6 RBI. But in '06, Teixeira had a good April, hitting .293 with 3 homers and 13 RBI. What is going on?
In April of '05 he did pretty well, hitting .261 with 6 homers and 14 RBI. In '04 in April, he hit .276 with 2 homers and 7 RBI. But in '03, he had a bad April hitting .188 with 2 homers and 7 RBI. It is it completely random for Teixeira?
Teixeira has hit .236 with 24 homers and 83 RBI during his career in April. To put the 24 homers and 83 RBI into prespective, Teixeira's month with the second least career homers is May with 39, and Teixeira's month was the second least RBI's is July with 119. Overall, Teixeira has been bad an April, but he has had at least decent Aprils three times in his 8 year career. Maybe he's due for a good April in 2011.
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