The defending champion San Francisco Giants seemed primed to build a dynasty. After watching them dismantle the Texas Rangers, at least we all thought so. But, 2011 is a new season, with a reinvigorated division and an even stronger Phillies team standing in their way. Can they put everything together again or will they be one-and-done?
Catcher:
After winning the NL Rookie of the Year in 2010, the expectations will be high for Buster Posey. Posey is motivated to exceed those expectations. Nobody expected anybody to steal the NL Rookie of the Year award from Jason Heyward. Posey did just that. Posey had a great rookie season, hitting .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in just 108 games. He slugged .505, way above the league average of .415, and his .862 OPS makes the league average of .748 pale in comparison. And it's not like he was extremely lucky, considering he posted a .315 BAbip, which was above-average, but certainly reasonable and relatively common. Defensively, Posey posted a just below-average .991 Fld%, but he posted a 37% CS% which ranked 4th in the NL. He had an amazing year, and accordingly, he finished 11th in the NL MVP voting. At age 23, it's only uphill from here for Posey. He'll be backed up by Eli Whiteside. Whiteside isn't a completely helpless player at the bat, considering he hit .238 in '10 with 6 doubles, 4 homers, and 10 RBI, although he posted just a .299 OBP in 56 games and 140 PA. Defensively, he posted a .994 Fld% in '10 with a 29% CS%, so he's pretty good defensively as well. Posey is just an amazing player at catcher for the Giants.
First base:
After the 2009 season, Aubrey Huff was a forgotten player. He had hit a career-low .241 in '09 with just a .310 OBP. The Giants signed him from the scrap-heap for just 3 million dollars on a one-year deal. What a move by them. Huff hit .290 in '10 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, 100 runs, 5 triples, 7 stolen bases (0 CS), and a career-high .385 OBP in 157 games. Obviously the career-high in OBP at age 33 was pretty amazing, but even crazier was his 7 for 7 in stolen base attempts one season after going 0 for 6. He also walked nearly as many times as he struck out, 83 to 91. He also did it with a .303 BAbip, essentially neutral. In his first career postseason appearance, Huff hit .268 with 1 homer and 8 RBI in 15 games. He also posted an above-average .995 Fld% defensively at first base. Huff had a really great year in '10 and was rewarded with a two-year, 20 million dollar contract with a 10 million dollar team option for the third year. But, will he be anywhere near as good over the next three years as he was in 2010? Everyone's gut feeling seems to be no. Bill James has him hitting .269 in '11 with 19 homers, 75 RBI, and just a .348 OBP in 548 plate appearances (he had 668 in '10). Huff might play pretty well in 2011, but the Giants definitely made a mistake by signing Huff to a two-year deal. There's absolutely no guarantee that he his production won't drop off in 2011 and never return to its previous levels. And, where will his signing leave top prospect Brandon Belt? Belt, a 2009 5th-round pick as a first baseman who will turn 23 in April, is considered by almost everyone to be the Giants' top prospect. He had a huge season in the minors in 2010, advancing from High-A all the way to Triple-A and hitting .352 overall with 43 doubles, 23 homers, 112 RBI, 10 triples, 99 runs, 22 stolen bases, and a .455 OBP in 136 games. He did hit just .229 in 13 Triple-A games, with 4 homers, 10 RBI, and a .393 OBP. Belt posted a .992 Fld% at first base in '10, and a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 11 games in RF and 3 games in LF. But, in addition to Huff at first base, the Giants have established players Mark DeRosa in left field, and playoff hero Cody Ross, the Giants have no position they can start Belt at, barring an injury. But, the good news for the Giants is that the contracts of both DeRosa and Ross run out after 2011, so they could let at least one of them walk, opening up a starting job for Belt in the outfield (I bet they let DeRosa walk). Belt probably needs a full season at Triple-A anyway. Huff's backup at the big league level will be Travis Ishikawa. Ishikawa hit .266 in '10 with 11 doubles, 3 homers, 22 RBI, and a .320 OBP in 116 games, but just 176 PA. He posted an 1.000 Fld% in 73 games at first base in '10, and has a .995 Fld% there for his career. He's a fine backup. Aubrey Huff appears to have at least one more decent year in him, but he could be a problem for the Giants in 2012.
Second base:
When healthy, Freddy Sanchez will be the Giants' second baseman in '10. But, the 33 year old ex-batting champ (2006) has played in just 111 games each of the past two seasons, so his backups have certainly gotten their share of AB's. In 2010, Sanchez missed until May 19th with shoulder injuries. But, in those 11 games when he was healthy, he did pretty well, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP. He had a .330 BAbip, so you would think he was lucky, but it was actually because he had an above-average LD% and an above-average IP%. (Also, realize that he has a .324 career BAbip.) Defensively at second base, he posted a very good .991 Fld%, but he did show poor range. When healthy, Sanchez is a good presence at the top of the Giants' lineup. Sanchez will be backed up by Mike Fontenot and Emmanuel Burriss (if he makes the team). Fontenot, acquired in a trade with the Cubs (through waivers) in August, did make a few starts for the Cubs the past couple of years. Fontenot, who will turn 31 in June, hit .283 between the Cubs and Giants in '10 with 13 doubles, 1 homer, 25 RBI, 3 triples, and a .331 OBP in 103 games, but just 261 PA. He made just 55 starts, but he made 100 starts in 2009. In '09, he hit .236 with 22 doubles, 9 homers, 43 RBI, and a .301 OBP in 135 games. That amounted to an even 0.0 WAR. At least he's not negative (well, not until you factor in his defense that year). Fontenot is an average defender at second base and third base (in addition to being an awful shortstop), but he has shown bad range. He's certainly not a great backup. Burriss spent his age 25 season of 2010 primarily in the minors after spending most of '08 and '09 and the big league roster. In limited time at the majors in '10, he hit an even .400 (2 for 5), while hitting .279 with 11 doubles, 0 homers, 23 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 72 minor league games. He missed quite a big of time when he re-injured a fracture of a bone in his foot that also cost him most of 2009. IN 2009 before the injury, Burriss hit .238 with 6 doubles, 0 homers, 13 RBI, 11 stolen bases, and just a .292 OBP in 61 games (220 PA). In '08, he hit .283 with 6 doubles, 1 homers, 18 RBI, 3 stolen bases, and a .357 OBP in 95 games. In 163 major league games, he had hit .264 with 12 doubles, 1 homer, 31 RBI, 24 stolen bases, and a .329 OBP. He's a below-average defender with below-average range at both second base and shortstop. If Sanchez does get hurt, I don't think either Fontenot or Burriss would be an adequate replacement. They are halfway decent as backups. Sanchez is a pretty good player, but he has to stay healthy in 2011.
Third base:
The enigma that is Pablo Sandoval is lined up to play third base for the Giants in '11. In 2009, "Kung Fu Panda", just 22 years old, burst onto the scene, hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI, 79 runs, and a .387 OBP in 153 games. He even managed to post an above-average .960 Fld% at third base, albeit with below-average range. He even finished 7th in the NL MVP voting. He was already considered a star. Apparently those considerations were premature. Sandoval was nothing special in 2010, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. (He did lead the league in a stat for the first time: double plays grounded into.) He posted a .961 Fld%, above-average again, and with slightly better, but still below-average range. I could probably talk about Sandoval's fielding, but it's pretty clear that Sandoval will always be a below-average defender. Let's talk about the more pressing issue, Sandoval's hitting. How did his BA decrease from .330 to .268? How did his homers free-fall from 25 to 13? What the heck happened? I hate to say it, but Sandoval didn't have an off-year in '10, he had the kind of season he should of had all along. Why did Sandoval hit .330 with 25 homers in '09? A .350 BAbip and a 10.4% HR/FB despite a league-average 19% LD%. In 2010, he had a .291 BAbip and a 5.5% HR/FB even though he had a 20% LD%. He just got lucky in 2009. I was shocked to see that Bill James had him hitting .308 with 18 homers, 78 RBI, and a .363 OBP. I respectfully disagree. Sandoval isn't as bad as he was in 2010, but I can't see him hitting anything above .300, maybe with 15 homers and 70 RBI. (Fine, those stats are pretty similar, but they certainly make a difference.) Sandoval is a decent player, but he's not a star. Sandoval will be backed up by Fontenot and Ryan Rohlinger (if he makes the team). Rohlinger, 27, has nothing left to prove in the minors. In his second season at Triple-A, Rohlinger hit .311 with 11 doubles, 8 homers, 48 RBI, and a .392 OBP in 77 games while posting an above-average .978 Fld% at SS and a ridiculous .984 Fld% at third. He has shown great range at third and decent range at short. Rohlinger's career high in games played in the majors was 21 in 2008, and although he has a .136 BA, he deserves an extended chance. He could be an effective backup. Pablo Sandoval is overrated, but he should bounce back a bit in 2011.
Shortstop:
This offseason, the Giants Miguel Tejada, who will turn 37 in May, to a 1 year, 6.5 million dollar contract, replacing World Series MVP Edgar Renteria. Tejada isn't the player he used to be. He hasn't hit 20 homers or driven in 100 runs since 2006. But, he's still a decent player. In 2010, he hit .269 between the Orioles and Padres with 26 doubles, 15 homers, 71 RBI, and a .312 OBP in 156 games. He had a .280 BAbip, just a bit unlucky (with a .318 BAbip in 2009, he hit .313). He posted a great .987 Fld% at shortstop, but of course with below-average range. (He posted just a .947 Fld% at third base, although he did show decent range). He's lost most of his power, but he's still a pretty good player offensively and he's decent defensively. He'll be backed up by Fontentot, Burriss, and Rohlinger (maybe more like Fontenot and Burriss or Rohlinger). Miguel Tejada is still a decent player, and he'll do OK for the Giants.
Left field/Right field:
The Giants could go with various outfield alignments, nearly all of which featuring Andres Torres in centerfield. But, there's some debate as to left field and right field. There are three players for two spots: Cody Ross, Mark DeRosa, and Pat Burrell. Ross, 30, hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 stolen bases, and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and Giants. He hit .294 with 5 homers and 10 RBI, and a .390 OBP in the playoffs, winning the NLCS MVP. His decrease in the homers in the regular season was due to a decrease in HR/FB from 9.9% to 7.5% (his lowest since '05). His career HR/FB is 10.4%. Around 7.7% is neutral, but obviously that mixes in power hitters and the Jason Kendall's of the world who have hit 20 homers since '02. Ross averaged 18 homers per season from '06 to '09, so I would expect Ross to hit right around 20 homers in 2011 (Bill James says 18). He'll almost definitely start somewhere. He has a .976 career Fld% in both left field and right field (.994 in centerfield where he has played the most games), but he has more experience in right field, so he'll probably start in right field. DeRosa lasted until May 8th in '10 before going down with a wrist injury. He's questionable for the start of spring training. He hit .268 with a .348 OBP, averaging 26 doubles, 22 homers, and 82 RBI from '08 to '09. But, DeRosa is 36, so that just might have been his late prime, and now it's over. DeRosa plays better in right field than left field, but of course he plays everywhere, and he still has a .991 Fld% in left field (compared to .997 in right), so he would do fine defensively. But, is he any better than Burrell? If you make him the starter in left field, than he can't be the utility player he's been his whole career! He could theoretically get starts in left field, second base, shortstop, and third base as a utility player (in which case you could insert DeRosa into the backups list for each of those positions). But, before we decide whether to commit DeRosa to left field, let's look at Burrell's stats. Burrell, 34 now, hit .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between the Rays and Giants. He posted a slightly below-average .984 Fld% in left field with just below-average range, so he's not a liability defensively. I think that you don't know what you're going to get from DeRosa offensively after wrist surgery, so the Giants should start Ross in right and Burrell in left. DeRosa, if healthy, would still get close to 400 PA as a utilityman. The Giants will have to decide their alignment, but that's what I think. The backup in right field will be Nate Schierholtz. Schierholtz, who turned 27 on February 15th, hit .242 in '10 with 13 doubles, 3 homers, 17 RBI, 3 triples, 4 stolen bases, and a .311 OBP in 137 games (252 PA). In 109 games, but just 41 starts in right field, Schierholtz posted a .992 Fld% with 7 outfield assists. He's very good defensively. The Giants' alignment in left field and right field is a bit complicated, but they have three capable players in Ross, DeRosa, and Burrell who would be fine starters.
Centerfield:
Andres Torres appeared out of nowhere in 2010 to have a very good season as the Giants' starting centerfielder, hitting .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 stolen bases, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. He posted a .995 Fld% in 84 games in centerfield, and he was perfect in 70 combined games in left field and right field. Not only did he post great fielding percentages, but also, he showed great range. And he did all of this in his first full season in the majors at age 32. Torres spent 12 seasons in the minors (1998-2009), playing in just 164 major league games over that time, but the Giants finally gave him his first real chance, and he did not disappoint. Torres did have a .331 BAbip, but you have to root for this guy that he'll be able to keep that up. He also did have a 21% LD% in '10, so it's not that far-fetched. I'm sure that he'll be a good player both offensively and of course defensively again in 2011. Torres will be backed up by Aaron Rowand. Rowand, now 33, is not the same player anymore and he has no versatility (he hasn't played any defensive position besides centerfield since 2004), but he's signed for two more years at 24 million dollars per year. Rowand hit just .230 in '10, with 12 doubles, 11 homers, 34 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and just a .281 OBP in 105 games. At least he's still good defensively (1.000 Fld% in centerfield in '10 with decent range). Interestingly, Torres' possible future replacement is going to Triple-A in , 2011 Darren Ford. Ford hit .251 at Double-A Richmond with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 40 RBI, 9 triples, 37 stolen bases, and a .315 OBP in 113 games. Ford stole an incredible 198 bases from '06 to '08 at the three A levels (SS-A, Low-A, High-A). He posted a decent .985 Fld% in centerfield with good range. He could become a younger Torres with more speed and less power. With Rowand on the team, Ford couldn't even make the Giants if he hit .800 in spring training. Andres Torres is a nice story for the Giants, and that great story should continue in 2011.
Starting Rotation:
In 2010, Giants ace Tim Lincecum had one of the best off-years you will ever see, going 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA, and 231 K's (most in the NL) compared to 76 walks in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He allowed 194 hits, 8.2 per 9, and 18 homers, 0.8 per 9. He had a increase in hits, homers, and walks allowed, while having a decrease in strikeouts compared to his Cy Young years of '08 and '09. Those factors caused his ERA to jump by nearly a full run. His BAbip went up to a career-high .315, so he was a bit unlucky, and his HR/FB went up to career-high 6.8%. If those numbers return down to his career averages of .301 and 5.2% respectively, Lincecum's ERA will certainly be back in the 2.00's. Lincecum was pretty lucky during his Cy Young years, having a 3.9 HR/FB, but he's certainly a good enough pitcher to still post an ERA in the 2.00's without being lucky. He was certainly good enough to lead the Giants to the championship, going 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA in the playoffs. He's certainly a top-end pitcher, and you have to remember that he won't even turn 27 until June and he's won two Cy Youngs. He's not as good with the bat, hitting just .104, but he had 5 RBI and 13 sac bunts. Lincecum is a very good ace for the Giants.
Matt Cain wasn't too shabby either, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA in '10 with 177 K's compared to 61 walks in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He allowed 181 hits, a 7.3 H/9, and 22 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. He arguably had a better season than Lincecum (but, he didn't lead the league in any categories). He was lucky, allowing just a .254 BAbip, but then again, he allowed just a 17% LD%. In the playoffs, Cain was unbelievable, going 2-0 with a perfect 0.00 ERA in 3 starts. Cain is a solid pitcher, and he's young too, just 26 years old and already in his 6th season in the majors. He hit .106 with 1 RBI and 10 sac bunts. Cain is a great number 2 starter for the Giants.
How many good young pitchers do the Giants have? 28 year old southpaw Jonathan Sanchez had his best season in 2010, going 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA, and 205 K's compared to 96 walks (most in the NL) in 33 starts, 1 RA, and 193.1 IP. He allowed just 142 hits, just 6.6 per 9, best in the NL, but 21 homers, a 1.0 HR/9. Why did Sanchez improve so much from his 4.24 ERA in 2009? Well, for starters he had a .255 BAbip, easily the best of his career, but he wasn't lucky. He had a 17% LD%, and just a 60% IP% (league average 69%). He was pretty much unhittable, except when he did get hit, he got hit pretty hard, allowing 21 homers despite an 8.6 HR/FB that wasn't that much above average. Still, he's a good pitcher. He didn't do all that well in the playoffs, going 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA. He hit .138 with 3 RBI and 7 sac bunts. Sanchez is a very good Jackson is a very good third starter for San Francisco.
The youngest of this group, 21 year old Madison Bumgarner, might end up being the best of them (that's a tall order with Lincecum and Cain among the group). He had a very good rookie season, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA, and 86 K's compared to 26 walks in 18 starts and 111 IP. He allowed 119 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.6 per 9, and 11 homers, 0.9 per 9. How was he so successful with the bad hit and homer rates? An 81.7% strand rate (runners left on base at the end of innings). Based on that, you would think that Bumgarner isn't that good. But, he had a .314 BAbip despite a 17% LD%. A few too many ground balls went through the hole, but when they did, Bumgarner buckled down and got through the inning. When everything evens out, Bumgarner could be posting a 3.00 or less ERA for years to come. He went 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA in 4 postseason games, 3 starts. Maybe that's what he could be. Bumgarner hit .179 with 3 RBI and 3 sac bunts. Expect Madison Bumgarner to take another step forward in 2011.
Barry Zito is a unique pitcher in the Giants' rotation. He's the only one over 30 (he'll turn 33 in May). He's the only one making over 10 million dollars (18.5 million). He's the only one the couldn't manage a winning record in '10 (9-14). And, he's the only one that posted an ERA over 4.00 (4.15). Not a good combination at all. He hasn't managed a winning record or an ERA under 4.00 while on the Giants. He hasn't isn't even pitched a 200-inning season! In 2010, he came 2/3 of an inning short, pitching 199.1 innings. Putting all the stats together, Zito went 9-14 with a 4.15 ERA, and 150 K's compared to 84 walks in 33 starts, 1 RA, and 199.1 IP. He allowed 184 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and 20 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. He put up those numbers with a .286 BAbip, a 6.5 HR/FB, and a 19% LD%. He's just a league-average pitcher at this point in his career. But, he's the Giants' 5th starter, and a very good 5th starter at that. How many 5th starters post a low-4.00's ERA? He is a very good bunter- he hit just .118 with 2 RBI, but with 14 sac bunts. Zito is ridiculously overpaid, but he's a good 5th starter for the Giants.
Bullpen:
Jeremy Affeldt was one of the best middle relievers in baseball in 2009, posting a 1.73 ERA in 74 RA's. Different story in 2010. He posted a 4.14 ERA in 53 appearances. What was the difference? Well, first of all, the ERA's aren't the full story. In 2009, he went 2-2 with that 1.73 ERA, 55 K's, 31 walks, and an incredible 33 holds in 74 RA's and 62.1 IP. He allowed 42 hits, a 6.1 H/9, and 3 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. In 2010, he went 4-3 with a 4.14 ERA, 44 K's, 24 walks, just 7 holds, and 4 saves in 53 RA's and 50 IP. He allowed 56 hits, a 10.1 H/9, and 4 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. The obvious difference is hits allowed. His H/9 jumped by 4.0! Was it BAbip? Heck yes. His BAbip jumped from .250 to .356, from very lucky, to very unlucky. Let's say he has a .300 BAbip. Average out his H/9's from '09 and '10, and he'll have an 8.1 H/9, which is fine. But, was there any reason his BAbip went up so sharply? Yes, his ground ball rate. Ground balls are more likely to be fielded (not necessarily cleanly) than line drives and fly balls. In 2009, he had a 1.91 GB/FB ratio, a 3.09 GO/AO (ground out divided by air out) ratio, and a 30% DP% (percentage of double plays out of double play opportunities). In 2010, those numbers went down to 1.40, 1.97, and just 8% respectively. Can Affleldt get to his previous ground ball rates. That remains to be seen. At least his ERA wasn't that bad in 2010.
Sergio Romo was the exact opposite of Affeldt, posting his best numbers in 2010. Romo, who will turn 28 on March 4th, went 5-3 in '10 with a 2.18 ERA, 70 K's, just 14 walks, and 22 holds in 68 RA's and 62 IP. He allowed 46 hits, 6.7 per 9, but 6 homers, 0.9 per 9. The homers were his only real problem. Romo had a .265 BAbip, so you would think that he was a bit lucky, but that was not the case. He had such a low BABip because he had such a low LD%, 12%. Romo's LD% was an average 19% when he had a 3.97 ERA in 45 games, but it was 12% also in 2008 when he posted a 2.12 ERA in 29 games. The Giants have to hope that it's not an every-other-year kind of pattern and more like a trend he'll continue for at least the next couple of years. If so, Romo will be a very good reliever, continuously posting ERA's in the 2.00's. If not, expect an Affeldt-esque decline in 2011.
30 year old right-hander Santiago Casilla also had a great year for the Giants in 2010, going 7-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 56 K's, 26 walks, 11 holds and 2 saves in 52 RA's and 55.1 IP. He allowed 40 hits and 2 homers, which amount to a 6.5 H/9 and a great 0.3 HR/9 respectively. But, how did he have such a great year after posting a 4.76 ERA from '07 to '09 with the Athletics? First of all, we have to look at would expect a huge increase in ERA in 2011. From '07 to '09, he had a .323 BAbip, and he had a .346 BAbip from '08 to '09. His luck improved in 2010, so he had a much better year. But, there's a couple of problems for Casilla going forward. In 2010, he was lucky enough to have a 3.3 HR/FB. He could allow double as many homers (0.6 HR/9) if his HR/FB returns to neutral. His 60% IP% was outstanding, but he had a bad 21% LD%. Casilla was pretty hard to hit, but when he got hit, he got hit hard. But, lucky for him, a bunch of those line drives and fly balls landed in the gloves of fielders. Don't expect him to be so lucky in 2011. I would expect a jump in ERA of at least 1.00 to 2.95 for Casilla in 2011.
33 year old lefty Javier Lopez was a complete disaster in 2009, posting a 9.26 ERA. But, he had posted a 2.43 ERA in 2008, and he rebounded in a big way in 2010, posting a 4-2 record, 2.34 ERA, 38 K's, 20 walks, and 5 holds in 77 RA's between the Pirates and Giants, and 57.2 IP. He allowed 50 hits, a 7.8 H/9, and 2 homers, a 0.3 HR/9. Well, he had a .279 BAbip, compared to a .413 BAbip in 2009, and right along with his .280 BAbip in 2008. His IP% was a bit high at 73%, but that was not because of a high line drive rate (15% in '10), but because of a high ground ball rate (1.62 GB/FB, 2.27 GO/AO). Lopez has posted an ERA of 2.70 or lower every season in which he has posted a 1.50 or better GB/FB. He was lucky in terms of HR/FB (3.3% including 0.0% on the Giants) and XBH% (28%, just 8% on the Giants; league average 34%), but with a good ground ball rate he'll be fine. If not, expect an ERA of at least 3.00 if not higher (hopefully not 9.00).
29 year old right-hander Ramon Ramirez posted his 3rd straight season with an ERA under 3.00 in '10 going 1-3 with a 2.99 ERA, 46 K's (a 6.0 K/9), 27 walks (a 3.5 BB/9) 7 holds, and 3 saves in 69 RA's between the Red Sox and Giants and 69.1 IP. He allowed 52 hits, 6.8 per 9, but 7 homers, 0.9 per 9. Considering his high walk and homer rates, and his low strikeout rate, he needed every bit of his .223 BAbip. He did allow a good 17% LD%, but he allowed a 71% IP%, so that's worrisome. His luck will end in 2011, and I'm sure his streak of three straight years with an ERA under 3.00 will end as well.
And finally there is lefty Dan Runzler, who will turn 26 on March 30th. He went 3-0 in '10 with a 3.03 ERA, 37 K's, 20 walks, and 4 holds in 41 RA's and 32.2 IP. He allowed 29 hits and 1 homer, an 8.0 H/9 and a 0.3 HR/9 respectively. He had a .346 BAbip, so you have to expect him to improve in 2011. Not the ball got into play that much- he allowed just a 56% IP% and a 17% LD%. Look for Runzler to improve in 2011 and possibly become the most effective lefty in the Giants' bullpen.
Closer:
Brian Wilson, who will turn 29 on March 16th, had an incredible season as the Giant's closer in 2010, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, just 26 walks, and an impressive 48 saves, tops in the NL in 70 RA's and 74.2 IP. He allowed 62 hits, a 7.5 H/9, and just 3 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. He was just plain outstanding. He also posted a perfect 0.00 ERA in 10 postseason relief appearances. He even was unlucky during the regular season, allowing a .314 BAbip, but he overcame it with by posting just a 60% IP% and a 15% LD%. He did allow just a 3.8 HR/FB, so maybe he'll blow an extra save or two in 2011, but he's still a great closer. Wilson is one of the best closers in baseball today.
Overview: http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=3055834605645541006
The Giants have a pretty good lineup and an outstanding rotation. But, their bullpen is certainly a question mark, besides Wilson at the end. At least a couple of those guys in the bullpen will significantly worse ERA's, and can the Giants overcome that? For the most part, they should be able to. It's hard not to label the Giants as favorites in the NL West.
2010: 92-70, first in NL West, World Series Champions
Prediction: 91-71, 1st in NL West
Showing posts with label Giants. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Giants. Show all posts
Friday, February 18, 2011
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
The strange tale of former Yankee Ruben Rivera
The Yankees have traded so many prospects. Some have become superstars, but most of them have never amounted to anything. Ruben Rivera fell somewhere in between.
Rivera, a centerfielder who is Mariano Rivera's cousin, was signed as a 17 year old in 1990, the same year the much more famous Rivera was signed. He didn't play his first game in the Yankee system until 1992, but once he arrived, he did pretty well, hitting .273 with 21 stolen bases and a .417 OBP at Rookie ball. He posted just a .951 Fld% in CF, but with 10 outfield assists. The next season, he began to show five-tool potential at Short Season-A Oneonta, hitting .276 with 7 doubles, 13 homers, 47 RBI, 6 triples, 12 stolen bases, a .385 OBP, a .976 Fld% in CF, and 9 outfield assists. Before the 1994 season, despite being so far down in the minors, Rivera was named the 76th best prospect in the minors by Baseball America. In 1994, Rivera had a tremendous season. Between Low-A Greensboro and High-A Tampa, Rivera hit .281 with 28 doubles, 33 homers, 101 RBI, 6 triples, 101 runs, 48 stolen bases, a .357 OBP, a .978 Fld% in CF, and 7 outfield assists in 139 games. He showed all the skills necessary to be a superstar. Accordingly, despite still being at A ball, Rivera was ranked the 2nd best prospect in the minors entering the 1995 season. In 1995 between Double-A Norwich and Triple-A Columbus, Rivera couldn't quite repeat his 30-30 performance , but he had another outstanding season, as he hit .284 with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 74 RBI, 10 SB, 86 runs, 24 SB, a .390 OBP, a .981 Fld%, and 6 assists in 119 games. He was so good that he got his first "cup of coffee" in the majors, appearing in 5 games and striking out in his only AB. Rivera appeared to be well on his way to being a superstar for the Yankees (or whatever team he was traded to).
In 1996, everything changed. Rivera was ranked the 3rd best prospect in the minors entering the season, but he certainly disappointed, hitting just .235 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 46 RBI, 4 triples, 15 SB, a .324 OBP, a .972 Fld% in CF, and 6 outfield assists in 101 games. It wasn't a terrible season, but it certainly was a step backwards. But, that lack of performance in the minors may have been because he spent his first extended time in the big leagues for the Yankees. He hit .284 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 16 RBI, 16 SB, a .381 OBP, a perfect 1.000 Fld% at all three outfield position, and 2 assists. Rivera even earned a spot on the Yankees' ALDS roster (but not the ALCS or World Series rosters). Maybe Rivera wasn't going to be a superstar, but he certainly had a chance to be a productive big league player for the Yankees. But, the Yankees coaches were upset with Rivea's attitude, and to complicate matters, he hurt his shoulder throwing out a runner late in the season. In February 1997, Rivera underwent surgery on his injured shoulder. His future with the Yankees was in question.
Rivera never played another game in the Yankee system before being traded to the San Diego Padres while still injured. That trade sent Hideki Irabu to the Yankees. Due to his injury, Rivera played just 35 games between the majors and minors, hitting .225 with 2 homers and 2 SB in 18 minor league games, and .250 with two SB in 17 games for the Padres. He did not make any errors in the outfield or post any assists. He seemed to be declining more and more offensively. In 1998, Rivera hit just .144 in 30 minor league games! But, he did much better in the majors. He hit just .209, but with 7 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, 2 triples, 5 SB, a .325 OBP, a .973 Fld% in the outfield, and 3 assists in 95 games. It certainly wasn't a great season, but he did prove he could at least be a productive bench player.
In 1999, Rivera had one of the most bizarre seasons EVER. He played the entire season in the majors, hitting just .195 in 147 games. That's certainly not good. But, he hit 16 doubles, 23 homers, 48 RBI, 1 triple, 18 SB, 65 runs, and a .295 OBP. He nearly went 20-20 while hitting .195! He is the only player in the history of Major League Baseball to hit under .200 with over 20 homers and over 15 stolen bases. Unbelievable. About his 48 RBI's, it takes some skill to have your RBI's be barely double the amount of homers you hit in a season. He hit 18 solo shots and just 5 homers with runners on base. He hit just .160 with runners in scoring position. Defensively, he posted a .976 Fld%, but with 8 assists. What a season!
In 2000, Rivera had his best season, although it wasn't anywhere near as unique as '99. He hit above the Mendoza line at .208 with 18 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 6 triples, 8 SB, 62 runs, a .296 OBP, a .984 Fld%, and 10 assists. A whopping five other players have hit under .210 with 15 or more homers and 8 or more stolen bases (obviously, Rivera's 1999 season qualifies as well). Following the season, the Padres didn't care how unique Rivera was and they released him. He just wasn't a good player because of his low batting averages.
In 2001, Rivera was signed by the Cincinnati Reds. He had a bad season, but he set his career high for a full season with a .255 BA, 13 doubles, 10 homers, 34 RBI, 1 triple, 6 SB, a .321 OBP, a .983 Fld% in the outfield, and 4 outfield assists in 117 games. After the season, Rivera was re-signed by the Yankees, but during spring training, he made the stupid mistake of selling Derek Jeter's glove for $2500 and he got released. He was then signed by the Rangers, and with them, hit .209 with 4 homers and 4 stolen bases in 69 games. In '03, Rivera hit .180 with 2 homers for the Giants. At age 29, he had played his last 31 games in the majors.
After sitting out the '04 season, Rivera signed a minor league contract with the Yankees. After hitting .118 in 6 games, he left and signed with Campeche of the Mexican League where he hit .342 with 21 homers, 71 RBI, 14 SB, and a .432 OBP in 80 games. Rivera was so good in the Mexican League that he was signed to a minor league contract by the White Sox in '06. He hit .239 with 16 homers in 107 games for Triple-A Charlotte, but didn't earn a call-up to the majors. Since then, he has played exclusively in the Mexican League, hitting .349 with 103 homers, and 60 SB the past four seasons. Rivera has now hit 256 homers in the minors and stolen 222 bases.
Rivera was supposed to be a great player, but he never really panned out for the Yankees or any other team. He had all the skills, but he just couldn't hit for average at all. Obviously, not all players can be 5-tool players, but if you're a 4-tool player, the missing tool better not be hitting for average (unless you're Mark Reynolds who has ridiculous power). Whenever you see minor league stats, you can't conclude that I player is going to be a superstar. You have to be able to put it all together at the major league level. Rivera obviously was unable to do that. (Not that he was a Quad-A player- keep in mind that he posted minor league BA's of .235, .225, and .144 from '96 to '98.) No prospect is ever a sure thing. Rivera was ranked the 3rd-best, 2nd-best, and 9th-best prospect in the minors entering the 1995, 1996, and 1997 seasons respectively. Were the Yankees right to trade all these prospects? In most cases, no. But, sometimes it's better to get a sure thing rather than a prospect who may or may not pan out.
Rivera, a centerfielder who is Mariano Rivera's cousin, was signed as a 17 year old in 1990, the same year the much more famous Rivera was signed. He didn't play his first game in the Yankee system until 1992, but once he arrived, he did pretty well, hitting .273 with 21 stolen bases and a .417 OBP at Rookie ball. He posted just a .951 Fld% in CF, but with 10 outfield assists. The next season, he began to show five-tool potential at Short Season-A Oneonta, hitting .276 with 7 doubles, 13 homers, 47 RBI, 6 triples, 12 stolen bases, a .385 OBP, a .976 Fld% in CF, and 9 outfield assists. Before the 1994 season, despite being so far down in the minors, Rivera was named the 76th best prospect in the minors by Baseball America. In 1994, Rivera had a tremendous season. Between Low-A Greensboro and High-A Tampa, Rivera hit .281 with 28 doubles, 33 homers, 101 RBI, 6 triples, 101 runs, 48 stolen bases, a .357 OBP, a .978 Fld% in CF, and 7 outfield assists in 139 games. He showed all the skills necessary to be a superstar. Accordingly, despite still being at A ball, Rivera was ranked the 2nd best prospect in the minors entering the 1995 season. In 1995 between Double-A Norwich and Triple-A Columbus, Rivera couldn't quite repeat his 30-30 performance , but he had another outstanding season, as he hit .284 with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 74 RBI, 10 SB, 86 runs, 24 SB, a .390 OBP, a .981 Fld%, and 6 assists in 119 games. He was so good that he got his first "cup of coffee" in the majors, appearing in 5 games and striking out in his only AB. Rivera appeared to be well on his way to being a superstar for the Yankees (or whatever team he was traded to).
In 1996, everything changed. Rivera was ranked the 3rd best prospect in the minors entering the season, but he certainly disappointed, hitting just .235 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 46 RBI, 4 triples, 15 SB, a .324 OBP, a .972 Fld% in CF, and 6 outfield assists in 101 games. It wasn't a terrible season, but it certainly was a step backwards. But, that lack of performance in the minors may have been because he spent his first extended time in the big leagues for the Yankees. He hit .284 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 16 RBI, 16 SB, a .381 OBP, a perfect 1.000 Fld% at all three outfield position, and 2 assists. Rivera even earned a spot on the Yankees' ALDS roster (but not the ALCS or World Series rosters). Maybe Rivera wasn't going to be a superstar, but he certainly had a chance to be a productive big league player for the Yankees. But, the Yankees coaches were upset with Rivea's attitude, and to complicate matters, he hurt his shoulder throwing out a runner late in the season. In February 1997, Rivera underwent surgery on his injured shoulder. His future with the Yankees was in question.
Rivera never played another game in the Yankee system before being traded to the San Diego Padres while still injured. That trade sent Hideki Irabu to the Yankees. Due to his injury, Rivera played just 35 games between the majors and minors, hitting .225 with 2 homers and 2 SB in 18 minor league games, and .250 with two SB in 17 games for the Padres. He did not make any errors in the outfield or post any assists. He seemed to be declining more and more offensively. In 1998, Rivera hit just .144 in 30 minor league games! But, he did much better in the majors. He hit just .209, but with 7 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, 2 triples, 5 SB, a .325 OBP, a .973 Fld% in the outfield, and 3 assists in 95 games. It certainly wasn't a great season, but he did prove he could at least be a productive bench player.
In 1999, Rivera had one of the most bizarre seasons EVER. He played the entire season in the majors, hitting just .195 in 147 games. That's certainly not good. But, he hit 16 doubles, 23 homers, 48 RBI, 1 triple, 18 SB, 65 runs, and a .295 OBP. He nearly went 20-20 while hitting .195! He is the only player in the history of Major League Baseball to hit under .200 with over 20 homers and over 15 stolen bases. Unbelievable. About his 48 RBI's, it takes some skill to have your RBI's be barely double the amount of homers you hit in a season. He hit 18 solo shots and just 5 homers with runners on base. He hit just .160 with runners in scoring position. Defensively, he posted a .976 Fld%, but with 8 assists. What a season!
In 2000, Rivera had his best season, although it wasn't anywhere near as unique as '99. He hit above the Mendoza line at .208 with 18 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 6 triples, 8 SB, 62 runs, a .296 OBP, a .984 Fld%, and 10 assists. A whopping five other players have hit under .210 with 15 or more homers and 8 or more stolen bases (obviously, Rivera's 1999 season qualifies as well). Following the season, the Padres didn't care how unique Rivera was and they released him. He just wasn't a good player because of his low batting averages.
In 2001, Rivera was signed by the Cincinnati Reds. He had a bad season, but he set his career high for a full season with a .255 BA, 13 doubles, 10 homers, 34 RBI, 1 triple, 6 SB, a .321 OBP, a .983 Fld% in the outfield, and 4 outfield assists in 117 games. After the season, Rivera was re-signed by the Yankees, but during spring training, he made the stupid mistake of selling Derek Jeter's glove for $2500 and he got released. He was then signed by the Rangers, and with them, hit .209 with 4 homers and 4 stolen bases in 69 games. In '03, Rivera hit .180 with 2 homers for the Giants. At age 29, he had played his last 31 games in the majors.
After sitting out the '04 season, Rivera signed a minor league contract with the Yankees. After hitting .118 in 6 games, he left and signed with Campeche of the Mexican League where he hit .342 with 21 homers, 71 RBI, 14 SB, and a .432 OBP in 80 games. Rivera was so good in the Mexican League that he was signed to a minor league contract by the White Sox in '06. He hit .239 with 16 homers in 107 games for Triple-A Charlotte, but didn't earn a call-up to the majors. Since then, he has played exclusively in the Mexican League, hitting .349 with 103 homers, and 60 SB the past four seasons. Rivera has now hit 256 homers in the minors and stolen 222 bases.
Rivera was supposed to be a great player, but he never really panned out for the Yankees or any other team. He had all the skills, but he just couldn't hit for average at all. Obviously, not all players can be 5-tool players, but if you're a 4-tool player, the missing tool better not be hitting for average (unless you're Mark Reynolds who has ridiculous power). Whenever you see minor league stats, you can't conclude that I player is going to be a superstar. You have to be able to put it all together at the major league level. Rivera obviously was unable to do that. (Not that he was a Quad-A player- keep in mind that he posted minor league BA's of .235, .225, and .144 from '96 to '98.) No prospect is ever a sure thing. Rivera was ranked the 3rd-best, 2nd-best, and 9th-best prospect in the minors entering the 1995, 1996, and 1997 seasons respectively. Were the Yankees right to trade all these prospects? In most cases, no. But, sometimes it's better to get a sure thing rather than a prospect who may or may not pan out.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Who will win the World Series?
Giants-Rangers in the World Series. I want to find the person who predicted that matchup from the beginning of the playoffs, let alone at the beginning of the season. Anyway, who's going to win?
Catcher: Bengie Molina vs. Buster Posey
Molina is a 13-year veteran, and his age (35) definitely showed in '10. He hit just .249 with 12 doubles, 5 homers, 36 RBI, and just a .297 OBP in 118 games, ironically between the Giants and Rangers. But, he has played very well in the playoffs, hitting .357 with a homer and 2 RBI in the ALDS, and .313 with a homer and 5 RBI in the ALCS. He is still a good defensive catcher, as he posted a.993 Fld%, a 23% CS%, and just 4 passed balls. He still has some gas in the tank.
Posey, on the other hand, is playing his rookie season. And what a rookie season it was. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He has hit .282 with 3 RBI in the playoffs. Posey is also a very good diffensive catcher, as he posted a .991 Fld% in '10 with a 37% CS% and just 1 passed ball. He's a great player with a great career ahead of him.
Advantage: Giants
1st basemen: Mitch Moreland vs. Aubrey Huff
Moreland had a pretty good rookie season, hitting .255 with 4 doubles, 9 homers, 25 RBI, and a .364 OBP in 47 games. (Project thsoe numbers over a full season, and he would have hit .255 with 14 doubles, 31 homers, and 86 RBI.) He has hit .303 with 4 RBI in the playoffs. He has posted a pretty good .993 Fld% at 1B. He's a nice young player who has made Rangers fans all but forget Justin Smoak (traded in the Cliff Lee deal).
At 33, Huff is no longer in his prime, but if you looked at his numbers you wouldn't know. He had a great year in '10, hitting .290 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, and a .385 OBP in 157 games. He has done OK in the playoffs, hitting .256 with 4 RBI. He is a good defensive 1st baseman, as he posted a .996 Fld% in '10. Eventually, he's going to slow down, but not right now.
Advantage: Giants
2nd basemen: Ian Kinsler vs. Freddy Sanchez
Kinsler missed time with a groin injury, but still had a nice year. He hit .286 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 45 RBI, 15 SB, and a .382 OBP in 102 games. In '09, he went 30-30, hitting 31 homers and stealing 31 bases. He has had a great postseason, hitting .342 with 3 homers and 9 RBI. He is a pretty good defensive 2B, as he posted a slightly-above average .985 Fld%. He is a very good player and a feared hitter in the Rangers lineup.
Sanchez had a pretty good season in '10, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 111 games. He has hit .268 with an RBI in his first postseason. He is still a great defensive 2B, as he as posted a .991 Fld% in '10. He is hampered by a shoulder injury right now. Sanchez is a good player, especially in terms of BA and defense.
Advantage: Rangers
3rd basemen: Michael Young vs. Pablo Sandoval
Young had an great year in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doublles, 21 homers, 91 RBI, 99 runs, and a .330 OBP in 157 games. He has hit .255 with a homer and 7 RBI in the playoffs so far, but .333 in the ALCS. He's a slightly below average defensive 3B, as he posted a .950 Fld% there in '10. Young is still a great player, despite being past his prime and at his 3rd defensive position.
Sandoval had a very disappointing year in '10, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. That came one year after hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI and a .387 OBP in 153 games in '09. He has hit just .214 in the playoffs, but he had a key 2-run double in the NLCS. He's actualy a slighty above average 3B, as he posted a .961 Fld%. We know from '09 that Sandoval is a great player who can jump-start the Giants' lineup.
Advantage: Rangers
Shortstop: Elvis Andrus vs. Juan Uribe
Andrus had a nice Sophomore season in '10, hitting .265 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 35 RBI, 32 SB, 88 runs, and a .342 OBP in 147 games. He has hit .333 with 3 RBI and 7 SB in the playoffs, although he was picked off twice by the Yankees in the ALCS. He's an average defensive SS, as his .976 Fld% in '10 was .003 better than the league average at SS. He is a good leadoff hitter who sets the table for the big hitters behind him.
Suprisingly, almost shockingly, Uribe had the best season of his career as he entered his prime in '10. He hit just .248, but with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 85 RBI, and a .310 OBP in 148 games. But, he hit just .071 in the NLDS with an RBI and just ,214 with a homer and 3 RBI in the NLCS. He is a well above-average defensive SS, as he posted .984 Fld% there in '10, in addition to a .957 Fld% at 3B (slightly above average) and a 1.000 Fld% in 24 games at 2B. He's a good player.
Advantage: Toss-up. They're such different players.
Left Field: Nelson Cruz vs. Pat Burell
Cruz, despite missing time with a hamstring injury, had a great year in '10, hitting .318 with 31 doubles, 22 homers, 78 RBI, 17 SB, and a .374 OBP in 108 games. He's also been amazing in the playoffs, hitting .375 with 5 homers and 8 RBI. He's a below-average defender in RF (.979), but he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in LF during the regular season and has often played LF in the playoffs. He's a great player in the middle of the Texas lineup.
Burell had an OK year in '10, hitting .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between Tampa and Texas. He hit .200 with a homer and 3 RBI against the Braves in the NLDS, and .211 with an RBI against the Phillies, his former team, in the NLCS. He is an average fielder in LF, posting a .985 Fld%. Burell, at 33 years old, is in decline, but he still has some pop.
Advantage: Rangers
Centerfield: Josh Hamilton vs. Andres Torres:
Hamilton had a ridiculous year in '10, hitting .359 with 40 doubles, 32 homers, 100 RBI, 186 hits, 95 runs, and a .411 OBP in 133 games. He missed the vast majority of September with broken ribs that are still bothering him, at least to some extent. Not that it's possible to tell just from his playoff stats. After hitting just .111 with an RBI in the ALDS against the Rays, he exploded in the ALCS against the Yankees, hitting .350 with 4 homers and 7 RBI. He posted just a .979 Fld% in LF in '10, but a 1.000 Fld% in CF, where he has played in the playoffs. He is just an incredible player.
Torres had a good first full season in the big leagues at age 32. A former Ranger (8 games), Torres hit .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 SB, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. After hitting ,125 in the NLDS, he hit .350 in the NLCS. He has no homers or RBI's in the playoffs, and just 1 SB against 3 CS's. He is a great defensive CF, as he posted a .995 Fld% there in addition to 1.000 Fld%'s in RF and LF. He's a good player, but frankly, he's not anywhere near as good as Hamilton.
Advantage: Rangers
Right Field: David Murphy/Jeff Francoeur vs. Cody Ross
Murphy and Francoeur have been platooning in RF for the Rangers during the playoffs. Murphy, the lefty, hit .291 with 26 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 14 SB, and a .358 OBP in 138 games. He has hit .200 with a homer and 2 RBI in the playoffs so far. Francoeur, the righty, hit .249 with 18 doubles, 13 homers, 65 RBI, 8 SB, and a .300 OBP in 139 games between the Mets and Rangers. He has hit just .167 with an RBI in the playoffs. Murphy posted a .995 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions, while Francoeur, a one-time Gold Glover, posted a .988 Fld% in RF, but with 11 outfield assists, tops among NL right fielders. Murphy and Francoeur are OK players.
Ross hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 SB and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and the Giants. He's playing out of his mind in the playoffs right now, hitting .324 with 4 homers and 8 RBI. A natural CF (.994 career Fld%), Ross posted a below average .982 Fld% in RF. He's always been a good player (20 homers in '08 and '09), but right now he's becoming a playoff star.
Advantage: Giants
Total: Rangers 4, Giants 3, 1 toss-up
Vladimir Guerrero will be the DH for Texas. He had a truly great season, hitting .300 with 27 doubles, 29 homers, 115 RBI, 93 runs, and a .345 OBP. But, will the Rangers play him in RF in San Francisco? He posted just a .933 Fld% in 17 games in RF. He's a great hitter, but he could be just a pinch-hitter in San Francisco.
Pitchers:
Aces (Games 1 and 5 unless they go on short rest): Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum
Lee had somewhat of an off-year, going 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 185 K's in 28 starts and ironically 212.1 IP. He also had 7 complete games. Of course Lee is probably the best postseason pitcher ever. He went 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in the ALDS and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in the ALCS. For his career, he's 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in 8 starts. He's just ridiculous in the playoffs.
Lincecum also had an off-year '10, at least by his standards. The 2-time defending Cy Young Award winner went 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA and 231 K's (tops in the NL) in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's undoubtedly a great pitcher.
Advantage: Rangers
Number 2 starters (Games 2 and 6): C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Cain
Wilson had a great first full year as a starter. He went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 170 K's in 33 starts and 204 IP. He led the AL with 93 walks. He has 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a good pitcher, but he has to improve those playoff numbers.
Cain had a great season in '10, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA and 177 K's in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He has been untouchable, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts. He's a great pitcher that provides a very good 1-2 punch with Lincecum.
Advantage: Giants
Number 3 starters (games 3 and 7): Colby Lewis vs. Jonathan Sanchez
Lewis had a nice season in '10, going 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA and 196 K's in 32 starts and 202 IP. It was his first season in the majors since '07 because he was in Japan in '08 and '09. He has had an amazing postseason, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in 3 starts. He has played very well.
Sanchez had his first great year as a starter. He went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA and 205 K's in 33 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 193.1 IP. He has gone 0-1 with a 2.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a very good pitcher.
Advantage: Toss-up. Sanchez had a better regular season, but Lewis has been better in the playoffs.
Number 4 starters (game 4): Tommy Hunter vs. Madison Bumgarner
Hunter had a good year, going 13-4 with a 3.72 ERA and 68 K's in 22 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 128 innings. He missed April and May with an oblique injury. But, he has been killed in the playoffs, going 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA. He'll have to at least get back to his regular season numbers. He's an OK pitcher.
Bumgarner had a good year also, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA and 86 K's in 18 starts and 111 IP after being called up on June 26th. He has gone 0-0 with a 3.55 ERA in the playoffs. He's young, but he has pitched well.
Advantage: Giants
Total- Giants 4, Rangers 3 (let's say the 'advantage' pitchers win all their matchups and Lewis and Sanchez split their 2 games)
Bullpen:
Closer: Neftali Feliz vs. Brian Wilson
Feliz had a great rookie season, going 4-3 with a 2.73 ERA, 71 K's, and 40 saves in 70 relief appearances and 69.1 IP. He has gone 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA in the playoffs (no saves). He's a good young closer.
Wilson had a amazing season as the Giants' closer, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, and 48 saves in 70 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Those 48 saves led the NL. He has been perfect in the playoffs, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 5 saves. He might be the best closer in baseball right now.
Advantage: Giants
Other key members of bullpen:
Rangers: Darren O'Day (6-2, 2.03), Darren Oliver (Lefty; 1-2, 2.48), Alexi Ogando (4-1, 1.30)
Giants: Sergio Romo (5-3, 2.18), Santiago Casilla (7-2, 1.95), Javier Lopez (Lefty; 2-0, 1.42)
Advantage: Rangers
Prediction: Giants in 7- their starting pitching is better, and their hitting and bullpen aren't that much worse.
Catcher: Bengie Molina vs. Buster Posey
Molina is a 13-year veteran, and his age (35) definitely showed in '10. He hit just .249 with 12 doubles, 5 homers, 36 RBI, and just a .297 OBP in 118 games, ironically between the Giants and Rangers. But, he has played very well in the playoffs, hitting .357 with a homer and 2 RBI in the ALDS, and .313 with a homer and 5 RBI in the ALCS. He is still a good defensive catcher, as he posted a.993 Fld%, a 23% CS%, and just 4 passed balls. He still has some gas in the tank.
Posey, on the other hand, is playing his rookie season. And what a rookie season it was. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He has hit .282 with 3 RBI in the playoffs. Posey is also a very good diffensive catcher, as he posted a .991 Fld% in '10 with a 37% CS% and just 1 passed ball. He's a great player with a great career ahead of him.
Advantage: Giants
1st basemen: Mitch Moreland vs. Aubrey Huff
Moreland had a pretty good rookie season, hitting .255 with 4 doubles, 9 homers, 25 RBI, and a .364 OBP in 47 games. (Project thsoe numbers over a full season, and he would have hit .255 with 14 doubles, 31 homers, and 86 RBI.) He has hit .303 with 4 RBI in the playoffs. He has posted a pretty good .993 Fld% at 1B. He's a nice young player who has made Rangers fans all but forget Justin Smoak (traded in the Cliff Lee deal).
At 33, Huff is no longer in his prime, but if you looked at his numbers you wouldn't know. He had a great year in '10, hitting .290 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, and a .385 OBP in 157 games. He has done OK in the playoffs, hitting .256 with 4 RBI. He is a good defensive 1st baseman, as he posted a .996 Fld% in '10. Eventually, he's going to slow down, but not right now.
Advantage: Giants
2nd basemen: Ian Kinsler vs. Freddy Sanchez
Kinsler missed time with a groin injury, but still had a nice year. He hit .286 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 45 RBI, 15 SB, and a .382 OBP in 102 games. In '09, he went 30-30, hitting 31 homers and stealing 31 bases. He has had a great postseason, hitting .342 with 3 homers and 9 RBI. He is a pretty good defensive 2B, as he posted a slightly-above average .985 Fld%. He is a very good player and a feared hitter in the Rangers lineup.
Sanchez had a pretty good season in '10, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 111 games. He has hit .268 with an RBI in his first postseason. He is still a great defensive 2B, as he as posted a .991 Fld% in '10. He is hampered by a shoulder injury right now. Sanchez is a good player, especially in terms of BA and defense.
Advantage: Rangers
3rd basemen: Michael Young vs. Pablo Sandoval
Young had an great year in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doublles, 21 homers, 91 RBI, 99 runs, and a .330 OBP in 157 games. He has hit .255 with a homer and 7 RBI in the playoffs so far, but .333 in the ALCS. He's a slightly below average defensive 3B, as he posted a .950 Fld% there in '10. Young is still a great player, despite being past his prime and at his 3rd defensive position.
Sandoval had a very disappointing year in '10, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. That came one year after hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI and a .387 OBP in 153 games in '09. He has hit just .214 in the playoffs, but he had a key 2-run double in the NLCS. He's actualy a slighty above average 3B, as he posted a .961 Fld%. We know from '09 that Sandoval is a great player who can jump-start the Giants' lineup.
Advantage: Rangers
Shortstop: Elvis Andrus vs. Juan Uribe
Andrus had a nice Sophomore season in '10, hitting .265 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 35 RBI, 32 SB, 88 runs, and a .342 OBP in 147 games. He has hit .333 with 3 RBI and 7 SB in the playoffs, although he was picked off twice by the Yankees in the ALCS. He's an average defensive SS, as his .976 Fld% in '10 was .003 better than the league average at SS. He is a good leadoff hitter who sets the table for the big hitters behind him.
Suprisingly, almost shockingly, Uribe had the best season of his career as he entered his prime in '10. He hit just .248, but with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 85 RBI, and a .310 OBP in 148 games. But, he hit just .071 in the NLDS with an RBI and just ,214 with a homer and 3 RBI in the NLCS. He is a well above-average defensive SS, as he posted .984 Fld% there in '10, in addition to a .957 Fld% at 3B (slightly above average) and a 1.000 Fld% in 24 games at 2B. He's a good player.
Advantage: Toss-up. They're such different players.
Left Field: Nelson Cruz vs. Pat Burell
Cruz, despite missing time with a hamstring injury, had a great year in '10, hitting .318 with 31 doubles, 22 homers, 78 RBI, 17 SB, and a .374 OBP in 108 games. He's also been amazing in the playoffs, hitting .375 with 5 homers and 8 RBI. He's a below-average defender in RF (.979), but he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in LF during the regular season and has often played LF in the playoffs. He's a great player in the middle of the Texas lineup.
Burell had an OK year in '10, hitting .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between Tampa and Texas. He hit .200 with a homer and 3 RBI against the Braves in the NLDS, and .211 with an RBI against the Phillies, his former team, in the NLCS. He is an average fielder in LF, posting a .985 Fld%. Burell, at 33 years old, is in decline, but he still has some pop.
Advantage: Rangers
Centerfield: Josh Hamilton vs. Andres Torres:
Hamilton had a ridiculous year in '10, hitting .359 with 40 doubles, 32 homers, 100 RBI, 186 hits, 95 runs, and a .411 OBP in 133 games. He missed the vast majority of September with broken ribs that are still bothering him, at least to some extent. Not that it's possible to tell just from his playoff stats. After hitting just .111 with an RBI in the ALDS against the Rays, he exploded in the ALCS against the Yankees, hitting .350 with 4 homers and 7 RBI. He posted just a .979 Fld% in LF in '10, but a 1.000 Fld% in CF, where he has played in the playoffs. He is just an incredible player.
Torres had a good first full season in the big leagues at age 32. A former Ranger (8 games), Torres hit .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 SB, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. After hitting ,125 in the NLDS, he hit .350 in the NLCS. He has no homers or RBI's in the playoffs, and just 1 SB against 3 CS's. He is a great defensive CF, as he posted a .995 Fld% there in addition to 1.000 Fld%'s in RF and LF. He's a good player, but frankly, he's not anywhere near as good as Hamilton.
Advantage: Rangers
Right Field: David Murphy/Jeff Francoeur vs. Cody Ross
Murphy and Francoeur have been platooning in RF for the Rangers during the playoffs. Murphy, the lefty, hit .291 with 26 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 14 SB, and a .358 OBP in 138 games. He has hit .200 with a homer and 2 RBI in the playoffs so far. Francoeur, the righty, hit .249 with 18 doubles, 13 homers, 65 RBI, 8 SB, and a .300 OBP in 139 games between the Mets and Rangers. He has hit just .167 with an RBI in the playoffs. Murphy posted a .995 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions, while Francoeur, a one-time Gold Glover, posted a .988 Fld% in RF, but with 11 outfield assists, tops among NL right fielders. Murphy and Francoeur are OK players.
Ross hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 SB and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and the Giants. He's playing out of his mind in the playoffs right now, hitting .324 with 4 homers and 8 RBI. A natural CF (.994 career Fld%), Ross posted a below average .982 Fld% in RF. He's always been a good player (20 homers in '08 and '09), but right now he's becoming a playoff star.
Advantage: Giants
Total: Rangers 4, Giants 3, 1 toss-up
Vladimir Guerrero will be the DH for Texas. He had a truly great season, hitting .300 with 27 doubles, 29 homers, 115 RBI, 93 runs, and a .345 OBP. But, will the Rangers play him in RF in San Francisco? He posted just a .933 Fld% in 17 games in RF. He's a great hitter, but he could be just a pinch-hitter in San Francisco.
Pitchers:
Aces (Games 1 and 5 unless they go on short rest): Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum
Lee had somewhat of an off-year, going 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 185 K's in 28 starts and ironically 212.1 IP. He also had 7 complete games. Of course Lee is probably the best postseason pitcher ever. He went 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in the ALDS and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in the ALCS. For his career, he's 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in 8 starts. He's just ridiculous in the playoffs.
Lincecum also had an off-year '10, at least by his standards. The 2-time defending Cy Young Award winner went 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA and 231 K's (tops in the NL) in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's undoubtedly a great pitcher.
Advantage: Rangers
Number 2 starters (Games 2 and 6): C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Cain
Wilson had a great first full year as a starter. He went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 170 K's in 33 starts and 204 IP. He led the AL with 93 walks. He has 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a good pitcher, but he has to improve those playoff numbers.
Cain had a great season in '10, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA and 177 K's in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He has been untouchable, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts. He's a great pitcher that provides a very good 1-2 punch with Lincecum.
Advantage: Giants
Number 3 starters (games 3 and 7): Colby Lewis vs. Jonathan Sanchez
Lewis had a nice season in '10, going 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA and 196 K's in 32 starts and 202 IP. It was his first season in the majors since '07 because he was in Japan in '08 and '09. He has had an amazing postseason, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in 3 starts. He has played very well.
Sanchez had his first great year as a starter. He went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA and 205 K's in 33 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 193.1 IP. He has gone 0-1 with a 2.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a very good pitcher.
Advantage: Toss-up. Sanchez had a better regular season, but Lewis has been better in the playoffs.
Number 4 starters (game 4): Tommy Hunter vs. Madison Bumgarner
Hunter had a good year, going 13-4 with a 3.72 ERA and 68 K's in 22 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 128 innings. He missed April and May with an oblique injury. But, he has been killed in the playoffs, going 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA. He'll have to at least get back to his regular season numbers. He's an OK pitcher.
Bumgarner had a good year also, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA and 86 K's in 18 starts and 111 IP after being called up on June 26th. He has gone 0-0 with a 3.55 ERA in the playoffs. He's young, but he has pitched well.
Advantage: Giants
Total- Giants 4, Rangers 3 (let's say the 'advantage' pitchers win all their matchups and Lewis and Sanchez split their 2 games)
Bullpen:
Closer: Neftali Feliz vs. Brian Wilson
Feliz had a great rookie season, going 4-3 with a 2.73 ERA, 71 K's, and 40 saves in 70 relief appearances and 69.1 IP. He has gone 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA in the playoffs (no saves). He's a good young closer.
Wilson had a amazing season as the Giants' closer, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, and 48 saves in 70 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Those 48 saves led the NL. He has been perfect in the playoffs, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 5 saves. He might be the best closer in baseball right now.
Advantage: Giants
Other key members of bullpen:
Rangers: Darren O'Day (6-2, 2.03), Darren Oliver (Lefty; 1-2, 2.48), Alexi Ogando (4-1, 1.30)
Giants: Sergio Romo (5-3, 2.18), Santiago Casilla (7-2, 1.95), Javier Lopez (Lefty; 2-0, 1.42)
Advantage: Rangers
Prediction: Giants in 7- their starting pitching is better, and their hitting and bullpen aren't that much worse.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Thomson belongs in a unique class of players
Everyone baseball fan knows Bobby Thomson. He hit the 'shot heard round the world' to send the NY Giants to the 1951 World Series. But, he's not a Hall of Famer. He was a career .270 season with 264 homers. 1951 was the only season in which he hit .264 homers. Still, everyone knows him. There aren't too many players like that. Most universally known players are either Hall of Famers (ex. Babe Ruth), future Hall of Famers (ex. Derek Jeter), or would be Hall of Famers whose careers were derailed by injuries (ex. Nomar Garciaparra) or some other problem (ex. Dwight Gooden or Mark McGwire). The universally known players who aren't anywhere near Hall of Famers had one legendary moment or one legendary season. Thomson, Roger Maris, and Kirk Gibson are the only ones I can think of immediately. (If you're thinking of Bill Mazeroski, who hit a walkoff homer to win the 1960 World Series for the Pirates, he was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in 2001.) Maris and Gibson only had 275 and 255 homers respectively. Still, we'll always remember them. Some players are legends their whole career, but others are legends just because of one moment or one season that will be remembered forever.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)