Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Who will win the World Series?

Giants-Rangers in the World Series. I want to find the person who predicted that matchup from the beginning of the playoffs, let alone at the beginning of the season. Anyway, who's going to win?

Catcher: Bengie Molina vs. Buster Posey

Molina is a 13-year veteran, and his age (35) definitely showed in '10. He hit just .249 with 12 doubles, 5 homers, 36 RBI, and just a .297 OBP in 118 games, ironically between the Giants and Rangers. But, he has played very well in the playoffs, hitting .357 with a homer and 2 RBI in the ALDS, and .313 with a homer and 5 RBI in the ALCS. He is still a good defensive catcher, as he posted a.993 Fld%, a 23% CS%, and just 4 passed balls. He still has some gas in the tank.

Posey, on the other hand, is playing his rookie season. And what a rookie season it was. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He has hit .282 with 3 RBI in the playoffs. Posey is also a very good diffensive catcher, as he posted a .991 Fld% in '10 with a 37% CS% and just 1 passed ball. He's a great player with a great career ahead of him.

Advantage: Giants

1st basemen: Mitch Moreland vs. Aubrey Huff

Moreland had a pretty good rookie season, hitting .255 with 4 doubles, 9 homers, 25 RBI, and a .364 OBP in 47 games. (Project thsoe numbers over a full season, and he would have hit .255 with 14 doubles, 31 homers, and 86 RBI.) He has hit .303 with 4 RBI in the playoffs. He has posted a pretty good .993 Fld% at 1B. He's a nice young player who has made Rangers fans all but forget Justin Smoak (traded in the Cliff Lee deal).

At 33, Huff is no longer in his prime, but if you looked at his numbers you wouldn't know. He had a great year in '10, hitting .290 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, and a .385 OBP in 157 games. He has done OK in the playoffs, hitting .256 with 4 RBI. He is a good defensive 1st baseman, as he posted a .996 Fld% in '10. Eventually, he's going to slow down, but not right now.

Advantage: Giants

2nd basemen: Ian Kinsler vs. Freddy Sanchez

Kinsler missed time with a groin injury, but still had a nice year. He hit .286 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 45 RBI, 15 SB, and a .382 OBP in 102 games. In '09, he went 30-30, hitting 31 homers and stealing 31 bases. He has had a great postseason, hitting .342 with 3 homers and 9 RBI. He is a pretty good defensive 2B, as he posted a slightly-above average .985 Fld%. He is a very good player and a feared hitter in the Rangers lineup.

Sanchez had a pretty good season in '10, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 111 games. He has hit .268 with an RBI in his first postseason. He is still a great defensive 2B, as he as posted a .991 Fld% in '10. He is hampered by a shoulder injury right now. Sanchez is a good player, especially in terms of BA and defense.

Advantage: Rangers

3rd basemen: Michael Young vs. Pablo Sandoval

Young had an great year in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doublles, 21 homers, 91 RBI, 99 runs, and a .330 OBP in 157 games. He has hit .255 with a homer and 7 RBI in the playoffs so far, but .333 in the ALCS. He's a slightly below average defensive 3B, as he posted a .950 Fld% there in '10. Young is still a great player, despite being past his prime and at his 3rd defensive position.

Sandoval had a very disappointing year in '10, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. That came one year after hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI and a .387 OBP in 153 games in '09. He has hit just .214 in the playoffs, but he had a key 2-run double in the NLCS. He's actualy a slighty above average 3B, as he posted a .961 Fld%. We know from '09 that Sandoval is a great player who can jump-start the Giants' lineup.

Advantage: Rangers

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus vs. Juan Uribe

Andrus had a nice Sophomore season in '10, hitting .265 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 35 RBI, 32 SB, 88 runs, and a .342 OBP in 147 games. He has hit .333 with 3 RBI and 7 SB in the playoffs, although he was picked off twice by the Yankees in the ALCS. He's an average defensive SS, as his .976 Fld% in '10 was .003 better than the league average at SS. He is a good leadoff hitter who sets the table for the big hitters behind him.

Suprisingly, almost shockingly, Uribe had the best season of his career as he entered his prime in '10. He hit just .248, but with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 85 RBI, and a .310 OBP in 148 games. But, he hit just .071 in the NLDS with an RBI and just ,214 with a homer and 3 RBI in the NLCS. He is a well above-average defensive SS, as he posted .984 Fld% there in '10, in addition to a .957 Fld% at 3B (slightly above average) and a 1.000 Fld% in 24 games at 2B. He's a good player.

Advantage: Toss-up. They're such different players.

Left Field: Nelson Cruz vs. Pat Burell

Cruz, despite missing time with a hamstring injury, had a great year in '10, hitting .318 with 31 doubles, 22 homers, 78 RBI, 17 SB, and a .374 OBP in 108 games. He's also been amazing in the playoffs, hitting .375 with 5 homers and 8 RBI. He's a below-average defender in RF (.979), but he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in LF during the regular season and has often played LF in the playoffs. He's a great player in the middle of the Texas lineup.

Burell had an OK year in '10, hitting .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between Tampa and Texas. He hit .200 with a homer and 3 RBI against the Braves in the NLDS, and .211 with an RBI against the Phillies, his former team, in the NLCS. He is an average fielder in LF, posting a .985 Fld%. Burell, at 33 years old, is in decline, but he still has some pop.

Advantage: Rangers

Centerfield: Josh Hamilton vs. Andres Torres:

Hamilton had a ridiculous year in '10, hitting .359 with 40 doubles, 32 homers, 100 RBI, 186 hits, 95 runs, and a .411 OBP in 133 games. He missed the vast majority of September with broken ribs that are still bothering him, at least to some extent. Not that it's possible to tell just from his playoff stats. After hitting just .111 with an RBI in the ALDS against the Rays, he exploded in the ALCS against the Yankees, hitting .350 with 4 homers and 7 RBI. He posted just a .979 Fld% in LF in '10, but a 1.000 Fld% in CF, where he has played in the playoffs. He is just an incredible player.

Torres had a good first full season in the big leagues at age 32. A former Ranger (8 games), Torres hit .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 SB, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. After hitting ,125 in the NLDS, he hit .350 in the NLCS. He has no homers or RBI's in the playoffs, and just 1 SB against 3 CS's. He is a great defensive CF, as he posted a .995 Fld% there in addition to 1.000 Fld%'s in RF and LF. He's a good player, but frankly, he's not anywhere near as good as Hamilton.

Advantage: Rangers

Right Field: David Murphy/Jeff Francoeur vs. Cody Ross

Murphy and Francoeur have been platooning in RF for the Rangers during the playoffs. Murphy, the lefty, hit .291 with 26 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 14 SB, and a .358 OBP in 138 games. He has hit .200 with a homer and 2 RBI in the playoffs so far. Francoeur, the righty, hit .249 with 18 doubles, 13 homers, 65 RBI, 8 SB, and a .300 OBP in 139 games between the Mets and Rangers. He has hit just .167 with an RBI in the playoffs. Murphy posted a .995 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions, while Francoeur, a one-time Gold Glover, posted a .988 Fld% in RF, but with 11 outfield assists, tops among NL right fielders. Murphy and Francoeur are OK players.

Ross hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 SB and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and the Giants. He's playing out of his mind in the playoffs right now, hitting .324 with 4 homers and 8 RBI. A natural CF (.994 career Fld%), Ross posted a below average .982 Fld% in RF. He's always been a good player (20 homers in '08 and '09), but right now he's becoming a playoff star.

Advantage: Giants

Total: Rangers 4, Giants 3, 1 toss-up

Vladimir Guerrero will be the DH for Texas. He had a truly great season, hitting .300 with 27 doubles, 29 homers, 115 RBI, 93 runs, and a .345 OBP. But, will the Rangers play him in RF in San Francisco? He posted just a .933 Fld% in 17 games in RF. He's a great hitter, but he could be just a pinch-hitter in San Francisco.

Pitchers:

Aces (Games 1 and 5 unless they go on short rest): Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum

Lee had somewhat of an off-year, going 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 185 K's in 28 starts and ironically 212.1 IP. He also had 7 complete games. Of course Lee is probably the best postseason pitcher ever. He went 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in the ALDS and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in the ALCS. For his career, he's 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in 8 starts. He's just ridiculous in the playoffs.

Lincecum also had an off-year '10, at least by his standards. The 2-time defending Cy Young Award winner went 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA and 231 K's (tops in the NL) in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's undoubtedly a great pitcher.

Advantage: Rangers

Number 2 starters (Games 2 and 6): C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Cain

Wilson had a great first full year as a starter. He went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 170 K's in 33 starts and 204 IP. He led the AL with 93 walks. He has 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a good pitcher, but he has to improve those playoff numbers.

Cain had a great season in '10, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA and 177 K's in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He has been untouchable, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts. He's a great pitcher that provides a very good 1-2 punch with Lincecum.

Advantage: Giants

Number 3 starters (games 3 and 7): Colby Lewis vs. Jonathan Sanchez

Lewis had a nice season in '10, going 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA and 196 K's in 32 starts and 202 IP. It was his first season in the majors since '07 because he was in Japan in '08 and '09. He has had an amazing postseason, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in 3 starts. He has played very well.

Sanchez had his first great year as a starter. He went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA and 205 K's in 33 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 193.1 IP. He has gone 0-1 with a 2.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a very good pitcher.

Advantage: Toss-up. Sanchez had a better regular season, but Lewis has been better in the playoffs.

Number 4 starters (game 4): Tommy Hunter vs. Madison Bumgarner

Hunter had a good year, going 13-4 with a 3.72 ERA and 68 K's in 22 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 128 innings. He missed April and May with an oblique injury. But, he has been killed in the playoffs, going 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA. He'll have to at least get back to his regular season numbers. He's an OK pitcher.

Bumgarner had a good year also, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA and 86 K's in 18 starts and 111 IP after being called up on June 26th. He has gone 0-0 with a 3.55 ERA in the playoffs. He's young, but he has pitched well.

Advantage: Giants

Total- Giants 4, Rangers 3 (let's say the 'advantage' pitchers win all their matchups and Lewis and Sanchez split their 2 games)

Bullpen:

Closer: Neftali Feliz vs. Brian Wilson

Feliz had a great rookie season, going 4-3 with a 2.73 ERA, 71 K's, and 40 saves in 70 relief appearances and 69.1 IP. He has gone 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA in the playoffs (no saves). He's a good young closer.

Wilson had a amazing season as the Giants' closer, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, and 48 saves in 70 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Those 48 saves led the NL. He has been perfect in the playoffs, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 5 saves. He might be the best closer in baseball right now.

Advantage: Giants

Other key members of bullpen:

Rangers: Darren O'Day (6-2, 2.03), Darren Oliver (Lefty; 1-2, 2.48), Alexi Ogando (4-1, 1.30)

Giants: Sergio Romo (5-3, 2.18), Santiago Casilla (7-2, 1.95), Javier Lopez (Lefty; 2-0, 1.42)

Advantage: Rangers

Prediction: Giants in 7- their starting pitching is better, and their hitting and bullpen aren't that much worse.

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