Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Should the Yankees have traded for Lee?

Just looking at this title of this post, you're wondering what the heck I'll walking about. Didn't the Mariners call off the trade, not the Yankees? Let me explain. The trade was all but settled. Cliff Lee to the Yanks for minor leaguers Jesus Montero, a catcher, David Adams, a 2nd baseman, and Zach McAllister, a RHP. Apparently, that deal fell through because Adams is on the 7-day DL with a high ankle sprain and the Mariners were worried. The Yankees offered to switch Adams out for a different prospect (I would guess minor league INF Eduardo Nunez), but the Mariners wanted another pitching prospect also (Ivan Nova or Jeremy Bleich) and the price was too high. The Yankees pulled out of the trade. Then, the Rangers swooped in and acquired Lee and reliever Mark Lowe in exchange for Justin Smoak, a rookie 1st baseman, and minor league RHP's Josh Lueke and RHP Blake Beavan, along with minor league 2nd baseman Matthew Lawson.

Let's look at the players that the Yankee would have traded to Seattle for Lee. Should they pulled the trigger on the trade?

Lee has been ridiculous this year, going 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 89 K's in 13 starts and 103.2 IP. He has walked just 6 batters, and has 5 complete games including 1 shutout. He has been incredible.

Montero is hitting .253 at Triple-A Scranton with 19 doubles, 6 homers, 35 RBI, and a .329 OBP in 77 games. In '09, he hit .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. His '09 season solidified him as a top prospect. In fact, Montero was considered the top prospect in the Yankees' system enering this year by Baseball America. Montero, just 20 years old, is not considered to have a future as a catcher in the big leagues. By staying within the Yankee system, he remains the Yankees' DH of the future if nothing else.

Adams is hitting .309 at Double-A Trenton with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, 5 SB, and a .393 OBP in 39 games. In '09, Adams hit .286 with 40 doubles, 7 homers, 75 RBI, 8 triples, 11 SB, and a .373 OBP in 132 games between Low-A Charleston and High-A Trenton. That season solidified Adams as the Yankees' 22nd best prospect in their system entering this year according to Baseball America. Adams, a third round pick by the Yankees in '08, is considered to be a decent defender. Adams was definitely an X-factor in this trade because after the Mariners made the Yankees pull him out of the trade because of his injury, the Mariners asked for 2 players to replace him. Adams, already 23 years old, doesn't seem to be young enough to have a future as a starter in the Yankee infield.

McAllister has gone 7-5 at Triple-A Scranton with a 4.45 ERA and 57 K's in 17 starts and 95 IP. He was the Yankees 5th rated prospect by Baseball America entering this year after going 7-5 with a 2.23 ERA and 96 K's in 22 starts and 121 IP for Double-A Trenton in '09. McAllister, 22 years old, was a 3rd round draft pick out of high school in '06. He certainly has a chance for a spot in the Yankee rotation at some point.

Nunez is hitting .304 at Triple-A Scranton, with 19 doubles, 3 homers, 40 RBI, 18 SB, and a .352 OBP in 86 games. He was the Yankees' 14th best prospect by Baseball America entering this year after hitting .322 with 26 doubles, 9 homers, 55 RBI, 19 SB, and a .349 OBP in 123 games for Double-A Trenton in '09. Nunez, who recently turned 23, is a solid defender who has played mostly SS in the minors. He also has experience at 2nd base and 3rd base. Nunez is probably going to be a utility player for the Yankees in a year or two.

Nova has gone 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 73 K's in 16 starts and 97.2 IP for Triple-A Scranton. In a brief major league call-up, he made 2 relief appearances, giving up no runs on 4 hits in 3 IP. He was the Yankees' 16th best prospect entering this year by Baseball America after going 6-8 with a 3.68 ERA and 90 K's in 24 starts and 139.1 IP between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton. He will also be competing for the Yankee rotation in a year or two.

Bleich, a 23 year old lefty, has gone 3-2 at Double-A Trenton this year, with a 4.79 ERA and 26 K's in 8 starts and 41.1 IP. He was the Yankees' 9th best prospect entering this year by Baseball America after going 9-10 with a 4.86 ERA and 116 K's in 27 starts and 144.1 IP between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. He has good stuff, but has had some control problems. He seems at least 3 years away from having any impact in the majors.

So, in the original trade, the Yankees would have given up their best, 5th best, and 22nd best prospects in exchange for a perennial Cy Young candidate. That sounds like a fair trade. But, when you take out the 22nd prospect and put in the 14th best prospect and the 9th or 16th best prospect, it would seem that the Yankees would be giving away too much. Maybe pulling out of the trade could be a good move by the Yankees. They can keep their prospects and sign Lee this offseason.

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