The rumor is that the Dodgers will trade CF Matt Kemp over the offseason. Could the Yankees make a run at him?
Every rumor has to start with the Yankees. Kemp doesn't appear to be a fit, but the Yankees could consider trading Nick Swisher. Swisher has been a great personality in the clubhouse, and he does have power, but there's no way the Yankees wouldn't at least consider including him in a trade for a talent like Kemp. Kemp only had 3 less homers than Swisher's 29 in '10, and the same amount of RBI (89). Plus, Kemp has logged 168 games in RF, posting a .973 Fld%, but a league-average .982 Fld% in 70 combined games in '08 and '09. He could be OK in right defensively. The Yankees would then have a very fast outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Kemp. (Before anyone asks, a Gardner-Granderson-Crawford outfield would not work because they have a combined 0 games in RF. But, if Swisher is traded, Jayson Werth could definitely play RF, since it's been his primary position since '07.) So, what could the Dodgers get in return for Kemp. Well, pretty much anything they wanted besides Jesus Montero. My guess would be a package of something like Swisher, C Austin Romine, and OF Melky Mesa (a player who could eventually be a Kemp-like player if he pans out) for Kemp and OF Jamie Hoffmann (back to the Yankees after being returned after the Rule 5 draft). Let's analyze this theoretical trade.
Swisher had an all-star season in '10, hitting .288 with 33 doubles, 29 homers, 89 RBI, 91 runs, and a .359 OBP in 150 games. He posted a slightly-above average .986 Fld% in RF. He's certainly a good player. Do the Yankees want to trade him, even for Kemp?
Romine, the Yankees' 2nd best catching prospect besides Montero, had a decent season in '10, hittting .268 with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, 61 runs, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. He posted a .994 Fld% at catcher, and a 23% CS%. He allowed 6 passed balls. Although those sould like good defensive stats, I've heard that he has had trouble handling good fastballs. That is definitely a problem. If you're worried that Montero may never be a full-time catcher, Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy are coming. The Yankees really don't need Romine.
Mesa, the other Melky, has been an interesting prospect. After hitting a .221 in his first 3 minor league seasons at Rookie ball and SS-A ball, He burst on to the scene at age 22 at Low-A in '09, hitting just .225, but with 24 doubles, 20 homers, 74 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 18 SB, and a .308 OBP in 133 games. In '10, he did even better, hitting .260 with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 81 runs, 31 SB, and a reasonable .338 OBP in 121 games. He owns just a .975 career Fld% in CF, but he posted a .985 Fld% there in '10. He would have been a good prospect if it weren't for those 3 lost seasons. Still, at 23 (he will turn 24 in January), he has a little time to develop. If he could put up his '09 and '10 numbers in the majors in let's say 2013, he could be a Matt Kemp-like player. It seems like a pretty good deal for the Dodgers if they get a former All-Star in Swisher, and a likely All-Star in Romine in addition to a possible Matt Kemp-esque player who if he does get to that level will be an All-Star.
Hoffmann had a nice season at Triple-A hitting .310 with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 74 RBI, 91 runs, 17 SB, and a .369 OBP in 139 games. He is a tremendous defensive outfielder, as he posted a great .996 Fld% in CF with 5 outfield assists. You would think that the Dodgers would want to keep him, but he's 26, and didn't even earn a September call-up in '10. Seems like trade bait to me.
Kemp, a 26 year old righty hitter, appeared in all 162 games for the Dodgers, hitting .249 with 25 doubles, 28 homers, 89 RBI, 6 triples, 150 hits, 82 runs, 19 SB (15 CS), a .310 OBP, a below-average .985 Fld% in CF, and just 3 outfield assists. Kemp is what he is. He has power and speed, but not a tremendous amount of either. Still, any player who could potentially put up a 30-30 season is a good player. Kevin Long could maybe fix his swing, and the Yankees could have far and away the best outfield in the majors, possibly an outfield that could all 3 be All-Stars in the same season. Picture that. As a Yankee fan, do you want the Yankees to trade for Kemp now? Is it a longshot? Maybe, but there's a chance. A chance of the trade happening and a chance that something special will happen in the Yankee outfield.
Showing posts with label Curtis Granderson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Curtis Granderson. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Friday, October 29, 2010
Another review of the Granderson-Austin Jackson trade
Before the 2009 season, the Yankees traded top prospect CF Austin Jackson and LH reliever Phil Coke to Detroit and RHP Ian Kennedy to Arizona in exchange for Curtis Granderson. The Tigers also traded RHP Edwin Jackson for RHP Max Scherzer and LH reliever Daniel Schlereth.
Why did the Yankees do the trade? They already had a top-flight centerfielder in Jackson who was ready for the majors!
Yesterday I was thinking and it finally came to me- Brett Gardner was the key to the trade for the Yankees. (Wait, what?) Yes, Brett Gardner, who wasn't even part of the trade, was the key to the trade for them. We'll get back to this point in a moment. First, let's analyze the trade for all the teams involved.
Jackson had a great rookie year, .293 with 34 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 10 triples, 181 hits, 103 runs, 27 SB, and a .345 OBP in 151 games. But, he led the AL with 170 strikeouts. How can a player with just 4 homers lead the AL in strikeouts? But, you could argue, he still hit .293. Well, let's compare Jackson to Curtis Granderson. Granderson led the AL in strikeouts in '06, his first full season, hitting .260. But, the next season in '07, he finished 7th in the league in strikeouts and hit .302. But, in '08 he hit .280, and in '09 and '10, he has hit under .250. Will the same thing happen to Jackson? For the time being at least, he's a good player.
Granderson missed time with a groin injury in '10, but Kevin Long fixed his swing and he had a nice year. He hit .247 with 17 doubles, 24 homers, 67 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 12 SB, and a .324 OBP in 136 games. He struck out 116 times. He hit .249 with 30 homers and 71 RBI in 160 games in '09, striking out 141 times. He is what he is. He's a good defensive CF with a lot of power and some speed. He of course strikes out a lot, but he's a good player.
Coke had a pretty good year as a workhorse lefty reliever, going 7-5 with a 3.76 ERA, 53 'K's, and 2 saves in 73 relief appearances, 1 start, and 64.2 IP. He walked only 26 for a 2-1 K/BB ratio, and allowed just 2 homers, but he allowed 67 hits, more than a hit per inning. It was better than his '09 season when he went 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 72 relief appearances for the Yankees, giving up 10 home runs. Strangely, he allowed just 44 hits in 60 IP. The Yankees clearly traded Coke because he's just not good. They were able to acquire Boone Logan, so they don't even miss him.
Kennedy had a good rookie season for the Diamondbacks, going 9-10 with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's in 32 starts and 194 IP. He also allowed just 163 hits, way less than a hit per inning, and 70 walks, good for a better than 2-1 K/BB ratio. But, he gave up 26 home runs and led the NL with 16 wild pitches. He's an OK pitcher. The Yankees didn't think he was of any use to them, so they traded him. They knew they had guys like Ivan Nova and Andrew Brackman coming up from the minors. It did turn out that they could have used him after Vazquez was a disaster.
Edwin Jackson had a very interesting season. He went 6-10 with a 5.16 ERA for Arizona and 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA after being traded to the Chicago White Sox. He threw a no-hitter, but he allowed 8 walks and threw 149 pitches. He struck out 181, but he walked 70, allowed more than a hit per inning, and he allowed 21 home runs. The trade was a disaster for Arizona.
Scherzer had a good season for Detroit, going 12-11 with a 3.50 ERA and 184 K's in 31 starts and 195.2 IP. He allowed just 174 hits, way less than a hit per inning. Scherzer did walk 70, but he still had a K/BB ratio better than 2.5. Detroit made a great deal in getting this guy.
Schlereth had a good season at Triple-A Toledo, going 1-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 60 K's in 39 relief appearances and 49.1 IP. But, he walked 34, a high average of 6.2 per 9. He did well in a big league tryout for Detroit, going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 18 relief appearances. He's a pretty good prospect, but he definitely has to work on his control.
It's clear who the winner is in this trade. The Tigers traded away 2 veterans in Granderson and Edwin Jackson for a starting CF in Austin Jackson that's a very different player than Granderson, but just as good, a starter pitcher in Scherzer that's probably better than Edwin Jackson, a lefty to be in the bullpen now in Coke, and a lefty that will be in the bullpen soon, in Schlereth. They are the clear winners in this trade. The Yankees got their guy in Granderson, and he did well, so it apparently wasn't a terrible trade for them. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks had just a terrible trade, as Edwin Jackson under-performed for them. Although Kennedy did well, they gave up a good big league pitcher in Scherzer and a lefty reliever who could eventually be a setup man, and maybe even a closer.
So, now to Brett Gardner, the key to the trade for the Yankees. Austin Jackson is a good player, but he has so little power. So does Gardner. Did the Yankees need both Jackson and Gardner? No. They would have had a very speedy outfield, but they would've had 2 starting players with 5 or less homers. When was the last time the Yankees had 2 guys like that? 1997, when Joe Girardi, Luis Sojo, and Tim Raines had 1, 2, and 4 homers respectively. Even then, Sojo and Raines both played under 80 games. In 1996, the Yankees had Girardi and Mariano Duncan who both hit 2 homers in addition to Gerald Williams who hit 5 homers in 99 games. Clearly, the Yankees can win with 2 players like that, but they probably preferred not to. Jackson was a more tradable player so they traded him instead of Gardner. In Granderson, the Yankees acquired a player with power who was a great hitter for Yankee stadium. The Yankees don't play small ball- they play "power ball". The Yankees probably would've liked to keep Coke, but they were willing to trade him (and Kennedy, who they had no use for) to do the Austin Jackson- Granderson swap. Jackson is a triples hitter, so he's great for Comerica, while Granderson has enough power to hit 35 homers in Yankee Stadium. Although there's no way to say that the Tigers weren't the winners in this trade, the Yankees accomplished exactly what they wanted so it was a good trade for them as well.
Why did the Yankees do the trade? They already had a top-flight centerfielder in Jackson who was ready for the majors!
Yesterday I was thinking and it finally came to me- Brett Gardner was the key to the trade for the Yankees. (Wait, what?) Yes, Brett Gardner, who wasn't even part of the trade, was the key to the trade for them. We'll get back to this point in a moment. First, let's analyze the trade for all the teams involved.
Jackson had a great rookie year, .293 with 34 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 10 triples, 181 hits, 103 runs, 27 SB, and a .345 OBP in 151 games. But, he led the AL with 170 strikeouts. How can a player with just 4 homers lead the AL in strikeouts? But, you could argue, he still hit .293. Well, let's compare Jackson to Curtis Granderson. Granderson led the AL in strikeouts in '06, his first full season, hitting .260. But, the next season in '07, he finished 7th in the league in strikeouts and hit .302. But, in '08 he hit .280, and in '09 and '10, he has hit under .250. Will the same thing happen to Jackson? For the time being at least, he's a good player.
Granderson missed time with a groin injury in '10, but Kevin Long fixed his swing and he had a nice year. He hit .247 with 17 doubles, 24 homers, 67 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 12 SB, and a .324 OBP in 136 games. He struck out 116 times. He hit .249 with 30 homers and 71 RBI in 160 games in '09, striking out 141 times. He is what he is. He's a good defensive CF with a lot of power and some speed. He of course strikes out a lot, but he's a good player.
Coke had a pretty good year as a workhorse lefty reliever, going 7-5 with a 3.76 ERA, 53 'K's, and 2 saves in 73 relief appearances, 1 start, and 64.2 IP. He walked only 26 for a 2-1 K/BB ratio, and allowed just 2 homers, but he allowed 67 hits, more than a hit per inning. It was better than his '09 season when he went 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 72 relief appearances for the Yankees, giving up 10 home runs. Strangely, he allowed just 44 hits in 60 IP. The Yankees clearly traded Coke because he's just not good. They were able to acquire Boone Logan, so they don't even miss him.
Kennedy had a good rookie season for the Diamondbacks, going 9-10 with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's in 32 starts and 194 IP. He also allowed just 163 hits, way less than a hit per inning, and 70 walks, good for a better than 2-1 K/BB ratio. But, he gave up 26 home runs and led the NL with 16 wild pitches. He's an OK pitcher. The Yankees didn't think he was of any use to them, so they traded him. They knew they had guys like Ivan Nova and Andrew Brackman coming up from the minors. It did turn out that they could have used him after Vazquez was a disaster.
Edwin Jackson had a very interesting season. He went 6-10 with a 5.16 ERA for Arizona and 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA after being traded to the Chicago White Sox. He threw a no-hitter, but he allowed 8 walks and threw 149 pitches. He struck out 181, but he walked 70, allowed more than a hit per inning, and he allowed 21 home runs. The trade was a disaster for Arizona.
Scherzer had a good season for Detroit, going 12-11 with a 3.50 ERA and 184 K's in 31 starts and 195.2 IP. He allowed just 174 hits, way less than a hit per inning. Scherzer did walk 70, but he still had a K/BB ratio better than 2.5. Detroit made a great deal in getting this guy.
Schlereth had a good season at Triple-A Toledo, going 1-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 60 K's in 39 relief appearances and 49.1 IP. But, he walked 34, a high average of 6.2 per 9. He did well in a big league tryout for Detroit, going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 18 relief appearances. He's a pretty good prospect, but he definitely has to work on his control.
It's clear who the winner is in this trade. The Tigers traded away 2 veterans in Granderson and Edwin Jackson for a starting CF in Austin Jackson that's a very different player than Granderson, but just as good, a starter pitcher in Scherzer that's probably better than Edwin Jackson, a lefty to be in the bullpen now in Coke, and a lefty that will be in the bullpen soon, in Schlereth. They are the clear winners in this trade. The Yankees got their guy in Granderson, and he did well, so it apparently wasn't a terrible trade for them. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks had just a terrible trade, as Edwin Jackson under-performed for them. Although Kennedy did well, they gave up a good big league pitcher in Scherzer and a lefty reliever who could eventually be a setup man, and maybe even a closer.
So, now to Brett Gardner, the key to the trade for the Yankees. Austin Jackson is a good player, but he has so little power. So does Gardner. Did the Yankees need both Jackson and Gardner? No. They would have had a very speedy outfield, but they would've had 2 starting players with 5 or less homers. When was the last time the Yankees had 2 guys like that? 1997, when Joe Girardi, Luis Sojo, and Tim Raines had 1, 2, and 4 homers respectively. Even then, Sojo and Raines both played under 80 games. In 1996, the Yankees had Girardi and Mariano Duncan who both hit 2 homers in addition to Gerald Williams who hit 5 homers in 99 games. Clearly, the Yankees can win with 2 players like that, but they probably preferred not to. Jackson was a more tradable player so they traded him instead of Gardner. In Granderson, the Yankees acquired a player with power who was a great hitter for Yankee stadium. The Yankees don't play small ball- they play "power ball". The Yankees probably would've liked to keep Coke, but they were willing to trade him (and Kennedy, who they had no use for) to do the Austin Jackson- Granderson swap. Jackson is a triples hitter, so he's great for Comerica, while Granderson has enough power to hit 35 homers in Yankee Stadium. Although there's no way to say that the Tigers weren't the winners in this trade, the Yankees accomplished exactly what they wanted so it was a good trade for them as well.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Yankee prospects season review
In this post, I will review the 2010 seasons of the top Yankee prospects and figure out how close they are to the majors. I will group them by position.
Catchers:
Jesus Montero: Montero got off to a rough start in 2010, but rebounded to have a great year. He ended up hitting .289 for Triple-A Scranton with 34 doubles, 21 homers, and a .353 OBP in 123 games. The 21 homers were a career-high and the 34 doubles tied a career high. The BA and OBP were Montero's lowest since '07, but it's a good sign that he was able to rebound from the bad start. He also played relatively well defensively, throwing out 23% of runners while posting a .992 Fld%. (Keep in mind that Montero's CS% is higher than both Posada and Cervelli. Of course, he's up against Triple-A base stealers, not big league base stealers.) But, it seems unlikely that he will ever be a full-time catcher. There's a chance that Montero could start 2011 on the big league roster. At the latest, he will arrive in the majors in September 2011. He will turn 21 in November. ETA: Sometime in 2011
Austin Romine: Romine continues to put up decent seasons in the minors. He hit .268 in 2010 for Double-A Trenton with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. His 31 doubles was a career-high. He posted a 23% CS% at catcher with a .994 Fld%. Romine sounds like a good defender and does have potential, but right now he's had trouble handling great fastballs. He'll obviously have to improve that. Romine will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2012
Others: 17 year old Gary Sanchez hit .329 with 8 homers and 43 RBI in 47 games between Rookie ball and Short Season-A. He had some struggles defensively, posting just a .971 Fld% although he did throw out 26% of attempted base stealers. He DH'd 17 times on the year. ETA: September 2014... 19 year old J. R. Murphy hit .255 with 7 homers and 54 RBI in 87 games for Low-A Charleston. His defense is also a work-in-progress, as he posted a .973 Fld% and a 23% CS%. Those struggles caused him to play DH 34 times with Kyle Higashioka catching. ETA: September 2013... 20 year old Kyle Higashioka hit just .225 for Low-A Charleston, but shined defensively, posting a .987 Fld% and a 33% CS%. He could eventually be a decent big league backup. ETA: September 2012
First basemen:
Brandon Laird: Laird had a great season in 2010 for Double-A Trenton. He hit .291 with 22 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 107 games. He was so good that he was promoted to Triple-A Scranton where he hit .246 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .268 OBP in 31 games. A player who has split time between 3rd base and 1st base, Laird's sub-par defense at 3rd will move him to 1st. He posted just a .931 Fld% at 3rd base this year and has a .934 Fld% there for his career. Meanwhile, he has a .992 career Fld% at 1st including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 6 games there in '10. His only full season at 1st was '08 when he played 88 games at the position and posted a .993 Fld%. Pending a Teixeira injury, Laird will probably never get a chance to start at 1st base for the Yankees. So, his value would come as a bench player with a great bat who could play both 1st and 3rd. Laird's bat needs more work at Triple-A, and his glove, particularly at 3rd, needs more work as well. Certainly though, Laird's bat will get him to the majors in 2011. He turned 23 in September. ETA: August or September 2011
Marcos Vechionacci: Vechionacci finally started hitting in 2010 after years of struggles. He hit .283 for Double-A Trenton with 17 doubles, 11 homers, 55 RBI, 6 SB, and a .350 OBP in 114 games. The 11 homers was a career-high, and the .283 BA was a career high for a season in which he played in 80 or more games. His glove has never been great, but he has experience at every infield position. He has 70 career games at 1st, 3rd, and SS in addition to 7 games at 2nd. But, he has just a .958 career Fld%. If he can fix those defensive problems, he could compete for a utility role in 2012. He turned 24 in August. ETA: September 2011
Others: 22 year old Kyle Roller, the Yankees' 8th round pick in June, hit .267 with 5 homers and 31 RBI in 67 games for SS-A Staten Island. He posted a good .367 OBP. But, he posted just a .987 Fld% at first base. ETA: September 2013 or 2014... 18 year old Ramon Flores hit .329 in Rookie ball, and managed to get promoted all the way up to Low-A and High-A, hitting .250 at both levels. He played all 4 corner positions, struggling to the tune of a .948 Fld% at 1st, although he did post a .983 Fld% in RF and 1.000 Fld% in 10 games in LF and 1 at 3rd. Maybe he could be a utility player down the line. ETA: September 2013 or 2014...23 year old Robert Lyerly had a great offensive season in '10, hitting .312 with 36 doubles, 7 homers, 71 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 131 games for Low-A Charleston. But, notice I said "offensive season", not just "season". Lyerly posted a completely disastrous .873 Fld% at 3rd base, his primary position, and just a .978 Fld% at 1st base as well. Well, he's certainly a much better 1st baseman than 3rd baseman. He improve his fielding and keep, hitting at every level if he wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2013 or 2014
Second basemen:
David Adams: David Adams was off to a great start in '10, hitting .309 with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, and a .393 OBP through 39 games. He hadn't even committed an error at 2nd base, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld%! But, then he fractured his ankle and was done for the year. The question is how Adams will come back. It is possible to develop arthritis after an injury like that, but I'm sure the doctors did everything they can to prevent that from happening. If Adams is fine next season, his bat could propel him to the majors by September. Should he be promoted, he also has experience at 3rd base. He is 23 years old. ETA: September 2011 if healthy, September 2012 or 2013 if recovery takes longer than expected
Reegie Corona: Corona had a bad year at the plate in '10, hitting just .238 with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 31 RBI, 14 SB, and a .306 OBP in 105 games at Triple-A Scranton, but he shined defensively. He posted a .998 Fld% at 2nd base, making just 1 error all season. That's even better than Robinson Cano, who will likely win a Gold Glove this year after posting a .996 Fld%, making just 3 errors all year. Corona also played both SS and 3rd base, but he struggling mightily at those positions, posting a .909 Fld% in 8 games at SS and a .895 Fld% in 9 games at 3rd base. Corona profiles well as a utility infielder. He has just a slight chance of winning a spot on the big league roster during spring training in 2011, but should join the big league club at least in September. ETA: Sometime in 2011
Others: 22 year old Corban Joseph had a nice year in 2010, hitting .283 with 33 doubles, 6 homers, 64 RBI, 7 triples, and a .362 OBP in 129 games between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. He did only hit .216 at Trenton after hitting .302 at Tampa. Defensively is another story. He posted just a .967 Fld% at 2B, not horrible, but pretty bad. He definitely needs work on his defense, but his bat should eventually get him to the majors. He will be 22 this month. ETA: September 2013...26 year old Kevin Russo made his MLB debut for the Yankees, hitting .184 with 4 RBI in 31 games. He did post an 1.000 Fld% at both 2nd base and 3rd base, but posted just a .933 Fld% while playing LF (he only made 1 error). His season in the minors was sort of like that also. After hitting .326 in '09, he hit just .259. He posted a great .992 Fld% at 2nd base, but also played every other position besides 1st base, pitcher, and catcher. He wasn't good at any of the other infield positions (.963 Fld% at SS and a .906 Fld% at 3B), or LF (.962 Fld%), but he did post an 1.000 Fld% in 6 combined games in CF and RF. He'll never be a good player, but he will be on the Yankees at some point in '11 as a super-utility player. ETA: He already has arrived, but he'll arrive again sometime in '11
Third base:
Laird (see above)
Bradley Suttle: Suttle rebounded in '10 after missing all of '09 with shoulder surgery. He hit .272 in 133 games for High-A Tampa, with 33 doubles, 10 homers, 80 RBI, 12 SB, and a .340 OBP. But, he posted a sub-par .951 Fld%. Already 24, Suttle really has to make up for his lost time in a hurry. He must improve defensively to continue his great hitting next season for Trenton if he even wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2012
Lyerly (see above)
Rob Segedin: Rob Segedin had a rough first 22 pro games. The Yankees' 3rd round pick in June hit just .244 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, and 10 RBI, and a .344 OBP in 22 games, all but 2 at SS-A Staten Island (the others were at Rookie ball). His defense was even worse, as he posted a .929 Fld% at 3rd base. He definitely needs a lot of work, both offensively and defensively. He will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2014 or 2015
Shortstop:
Eduardo Nunez: Nunez hit .280 with a homer and 5 SB in 30 games for the Yankees after a great 2010 in the minors. He posted an 1.000 Fld% at SS and a .944 Fld% at 3rd (1 error). But, he didn't make the postseason roster (Greg Golson made the team instead). Nunez hit .289 at Triple-A Scranton with 25 doubles, 4 homers, 50 RBI, 23 SB, and a .340 OBP in 118 games. He posted a .976 Fld% at SS in the minors, but just .917 Fld% at 3rd in 11 games, and just a .889 Fld% at 2B in 5 games. If Nunez wants to be a utility infielder for the Yankees in 2011, he must improve his defense. He is 23 years old. ETA: He has already arrived, and will likely make the Yankees out of spring training in 2011
Cito Culver: Culver, the Yankees' 2010 first round pick, struggled in his first taste of pro ball. He did OK at Rookie ball, hitting .269 with 7 doubles, 2 homers, 18 RBI, 6 SB, and a .320 OBP in 41 games. He posted a bad .918 Fld% at SS, but that's the case with most young shortstops. Culver was then promoted to SS-A Staten Island for some reason, and of course he struggled even more against older competition. He hit just .186 in 15 games game and posted just an .897 Fld%. Culver obviously had a disappointing debut, but he's just 18 and has plenty of time to improve. He is set up to be Derek Jeter's replacement at SS, and Jeter isn't going to retire for at least another couple of years. Culver has to improve both offensively and defensively, or Eduardo Nunez might end up replacing Jeter. ETA: Hopefully September 2014, before replacing Jeter in 2015
Others: 20 year old Jose Pirela had a good season for High-A Tampa, hitting just .252, but with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 61 RBI, 13 triples, 30 SB, and a .329 OBP in 130 games. He isn't as good defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at SS (in addition to a .957 Fld% at 2B). If he can improve defensively, maybe he will be a dark house for the starting SS job after Jeter. (If Jeter retires before 2014, Pirela could compete with Nunez to be the starting SS, at least until Culver arrives in the majors.) He will be 21 in November. ETA: 2012 to 2013... 17 year old Angelo Gumbs, the Yankees 2nd round pick in the '10 draft, had a terrible first 7 games, hitting .192 with no homers or RBI's (although he stole 3 bases), and posting just a .880 Fld% (3 errors). Gumbs, who may eventually be moved to the outfield because of Culver, needs a lot of work. ETA: September 2015...
Outfielders:
Slade Heathcott: 2009 1st round pick Slade Heathcott has had an "interesting" start to his career. Originally considered a 5-tool prospect, Heathcott has only shown some of those tools. Heathcott only hit .258 in '10 for Low-A Charleston, so he doesn't appear to be a good hitter for average. Heathcott struck out 101 times, but he did post a .359 OBP. He only 2 homers in '10, so his power hasn't developed yet. But, that's pretty common for young hitters to have their power develop later, and he did have 16 doubles in 76 games. He did show some speed, stealing 15 bases, hitting 3 triples, and scoring 48 runs in those 76 games. But, he was caught stealing 10 times for just a 60% SB success rate. Heathcott posted just a .953 Fld% in '10 (7 errors), so he doesn't seem to be a great defensive player, at least in CF. But, he did have 8 outfield assists, showing off his great arm. (Could he move to RF in the future?) Heathcott struck out 101 times and posted a .359 OBP. Heathcott might develop into a better all-around player, but so far he's been a bust. He has to improve his BA, improve his SB success rate, and improve his defense while waiting for his power to develop. Hopefully that will happen sooner rather than later. He turned 20 on September 28th. ETA: September 2013
Melky Mesa: If you thought the Yankees would never have a Melky again, you were wrong. Melky Mesa hit just .260 for High-A Tampa, but with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 31 SB, 81 runs, and a .338 OBP in 121 games. He posted a good .985 Fld% in CF (3 errors) with 6 outfield assists in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF. He really seems like a blue-chip prospect, but after spending 3 seasons in Rookie and SS-A ball, he's already 23 years old and will turn 24 on January 31st. Still, if Mesa can put up those kind of numbers in the higher levels of the minors, Mesa will have some future with the Yankees. He better move fast, starting with Double-A in 2011. As a legitimate 4-tool prospect (all tools besides BA), Mesa really has a chance. Hopefully he will make the majors in September 2012 after a solid campaign at Triple-A. ETA: September 2012
Others: 24 year old Colin Curtis hit .289 with 24 doubles, 5 homers, 27 RBI, and a .358 OBP in just 66 games at Triple-A Scranton in '10. The reason he played so few games was that he was called up to the Yankees on June 21st because of injuries to Curtis Granderson and Marcus Thames. Before being sent down on July 30th, Curtis hit .256 with a homer and 8 RBI (he didn't any hits in while posting an 1.000 Fld% in both LF and RF (but, his range factor was way below the league average). He also posted an 1.000 Fld% in the minors. Curtis might never be a starter in the outfield for the Yanks, but he could be a valuable bench player. He will be 25 in February. ETA: He already has arrived, and he will likely make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training... 23 year old Deangelo Mack had a pretty good year in '10, hitting .252 with 20 doubles, 12 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 5 SB (7 CS), and a .333 OBP in 116 games for Low-A Charleston. He's a little bit old, but he could potentially provide power off the bench. He better progress in a hurry. ETA: September 2012 (otherwise he probably won't make the majors)...25 year old Ray Kruml is another relatively old prospect, but he has legitimate speed. He hit .267 in 117 games between High-A and Low-A in '10, with 14 doubles, 1 homer, 21 RBI, and a .314 OBP in, all of which are sub-par, but he stole 42 bases while being caught 8 times. He's not a great outfielder, as he posted a .976 Fld% in CF, and a .973 Fld% in LF (in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF). He doesn't seem like even an average player, but maybe he could be a pinch-runner for the Yankees since Brett Gardner is now a starter. ETA: August 2013 (so he could possibly be on the playoff roster that year)...2010 4th rounder Mason Williams, a 19 year old CF, received the largest bonus the Yankees gave out this year, even more than 1st rounder Cito Culver. He hit .222 in 18 at-bats, so we really have no idea how good he'll be or how he'll progress. ETA: My guess is September 2014, but I have no idea
Pitchers:
Andrew Brackman: 2007 1st rounder Andrew Brackman finally got on track. After going 2-12 with a 5.91 ERA in 19 starts and 10 relief apperances for Low-A Charleston in '09, one year after Tommy John surgery, and 5-4 with a 5.10 ERA in 12 starts for High-A Tampa to begin '10, Brackman was promoted to Double-A Trenton and did great. He went just 5-7, but with a 3.01 ERA and 70 K's in 14 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 80.2 IP. This is the pitcher that the Yankees drafted in the 1st round! Hopefully he continues his success in '11, and we'll see him in September. He'll be 25 in December. ETA: September 2011
Ivan Nova: Nova certainly had his best season in '10. He went 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 135 K's in 23 starts and 145 IP before being promoted to the majors (he made his MLB debut earlier in 2010, tossing 3 scoreless innings in 2 relief appearances). After being promoted to stay on August 23rd, Nova went 1-2 with a 4.85 ERA in 7 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 39 IP. That's certainly not good, but it was decent enough to consider Nova for a rotation spot in 2011 (if the Yankees don't sign Cliff Lee). Nova has a promising future ahead for the Yankees, whether as a starter, or a reliever. ETA: Nova has already arrived, and should make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training
David Phelps: Phelps might be the only Yankee pitching prospect who had a better season than Nova in '10. Phelps went 10-2 with a 2.50 ERA in 141 K's in 25 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 158.2 IP. He was completely dominant. He had a 4 to 1 K/BB ratio (8.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9), and just a 7.9 H/9 ratio. His ERA did go up to 3.07 at Triple-A, but even that's good! Phelps is another Yankee starter with a very promising future, but he is a little bit older than Nova at 24. We'll see him in September 2011 along with Brackman. ETA: September 2011
Manny Banuelos: Banuelos had another great year despite missing time with an appendectomy. He went just 0-4 between Rookie ball, High-A, and Double-A, but with a 2.51 ERA and 85 K's in 15 starts and 64.2 IP. That's an 11.5 K/9! He posted his worst ERA among the 3 levels, 3.52, at Double-A, and understandably why. Just 19 years old, Banuelos is an incredible prospect. He should return to Double-A in '11, go to Triple-A in '12, and be promoted to the majors in September of '12. Even then, he'll be just be just 21 years old. ETA: September 2012
Others: 22 year old Dellin Betances went 8-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 108 K's in 17 starts and 85.1 IP between High-A and Double-A. He had a great 4.91 K/BB ratio (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9). His ERA jumped from 1.77 in High-A to 3.77 in Double-A, but that had to be expected. Hopefully he can do better at Double-A in '11, and do well enough at Triple-A in '12 to be promoted in September of that year. ETA: September 2012... 23 year old Graham Stoneburner had a great year in '10, going 9-8 with a 2.41 ERA and 137 K's in 26 starts and 142 IP between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa. He posted a great 4.03 BB/9 (8.7 K/9 and a 2.2 BB/9) while allowing just 6.8 hits per 9 innings. He's a bit old to be in High-A, but a good year in Double-A in '11 and in Triple-A in '12 will get him to the Yankees in September 2012 at age 24 (his birthday is in late September). If he continues to dominate the minors, the Yankees will find a place for him on the roster. ETA: September 2012...18 year old Gabriel Encinas, the Yankees' 6th round pick this year, is a 6"3 righty with great control. He is a sinkerballer with a curveball that has shown flashes and an OK changeup. He could be something in the future. He has yet to make his pro debut. ETA: September 2014 (?)... 21 year old reliever Thomas Kahnle, the Yankee 5th round pick in 2010, had a nice pro debut, posting a 0.56 ERA in 11 relief apperances for SS-A Staten Island. Not that those stats mean so much, but it's always positive to put up a 0.56 ERA at any level. Maybe we'll see him at some point. ETA: September 2013...27 year old starter Lance Pendelton went 12-5 with a 3.61 ERA and 133 K's in 27 starts, 2 relief apperances, and 154.2 IP. He is a bit old, but he has a chance to make an impact in the majors in the near future, probably as a reliever. He has 14 career relief appearances in the minors. He better make the majors soon if he ever wants a chance, with Brackman and Phelps coming. ETA: Sometime in 2011, if ever... 25 year old switch-pitcher Pat Venditte went 5-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 89 K's in 43 relief apperances, 6 saves, and 74.2 IP between High-A and Double-A. But, he struggled at Double-A, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in 2 relief appearances. Venditte will certainly have to turn that around in '11. Already 25 years old, Venditte better dominate Double-A in '11 and Triple-A in '12 and get promoted by September '12 at age 27. He'll make it to the majors eventually because he's such a novelty, but if he ever wants to be a quality reliever in the majors, he better get there quickly. ETA: September 2012
Many of the players I have mentioned will never make the majors, but there is a good chance that a couple of the players I mentioned will be All-Stars for the Yankees.
Catchers:
Jesus Montero: Montero got off to a rough start in 2010, but rebounded to have a great year. He ended up hitting .289 for Triple-A Scranton with 34 doubles, 21 homers, and a .353 OBP in 123 games. The 21 homers were a career-high and the 34 doubles tied a career high. The BA and OBP were Montero's lowest since '07, but it's a good sign that he was able to rebound from the bad start. He also played relatively well defensively, throwing out 23% of runners while posting a .992 Fld%. (Keep in mind that Montero's CS% is higher than both Posada and Cervelli. Of course, he's up against Triple-A base stealers, not big league base stealers.) But, it seems unlikely that he will ever be a full-time catcher. There's a chance that Montero could start 2011 on the big league roster. At the latest, he will arrive in the majors in September 2011. He will turn 21 in November. ETA: Sometime in 2011
Austin Romine: Romine continues to put up decent seasons in the minors. He hit .268 in 2010 for Double-A Trenton with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. His 31 doubles was a career-high. He posted a 23% CS% at catcher with a .994 Fld%. Romine sounds like a good defender and does have potential, but right now he's had trouble handling great fastballs. He'll obviously have to improve that. Romine will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2012
Others: 17 year old Gary Sanchez hit .329 with 8 homers and 43 RBI in 47 games between Rookie ball and Short Season-A. He had some struggles defensively, posting just a .971 Fld% although he did throw out 26% of attempted base stealers. He DH'd 17 times on the year. ETA: September 2014... 19 year old J. R. Murphy hit .255 with 7 homers and 54 RBI in 87 games for Low-A Charleston. His defense is also a work-in-progress, as he posted a .973 Fld% and a 23% CS%. Those struggles caused him to play DH 34 times with Kyle Higashioka catching. ETA: September 2013... 20 year old Kyle Higashioka hit just .225 for Low-A Charleston, but shined defensively, posting a .987 Fld% and a 33% CS%. He could eventually be a decent big league backup. ETA: September 2012
First basemen:
Brandon Laird: Laird had a great season in 2010 for Double-A Trenton. He hit .291 with 22 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 107 games. He was so good that he was promoted to Triple-A Scranton where he hit .246 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .268 OBP in 31 games. A player who has split time between 3rd base and 1st base, Laird's sub-par defense at 3rd will move him to 1st. He posted just a .931 Fld% at 3rd base this year and has a .934 Fld% there for his career. Meanwhile, he has a .992 career Fld% at 1st including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 6 games there in '10. His only full season at 1st was '08 when he played 88 games at the position and posted a .993 Fld%. Pending a Teixeira injury, Laird will probably never get a chance to start at 1st base for the Yankees. So, his value would come as a bench player with a great bat who could play both 1st and 3rd. Laird's bat needs more work at Triple-A, and his glove, particularly at 3rd, needs more work as well. Certainly though, Laird's bat will get him to the majors in 2011. He turned 23 in September. ETA: August or September 2011
Marcos Vechionacci: Vechionacci finally started hitting in 2010 after years of struggles. He hit .283 for Double-A Trenton with 17 doubles, 11 homers, 55 RBI, 6 SB, and a .350 OBP in 114 games. The 11 homers was a career-high, and the .283 BA was a career high for a season in which he played in 80 or more games. His glove has never been great, but he has experience at every infield position. He has 70 career games at 1st, 3rd, and SS in addition to 7 games at 2nd. But, he has just a .958 career Fld%. If he can fix those defensive problems, he could compete for a utility role in 2012. He turned 24 in August. ETA: September 2011
Others: 22 year old Kyle Roller, the Yankees' 8th round pick in June, hit .267 with 5 homers and 31 RBI in 67 games for SS-A Staten Island. He posted a good .367 OBP. But, he posted just a .987 Fld% at first base. ETA: September 2013 or 2014... 18 year old Ramon Flores hit .329 in Rookie ball, and managed to get promoted all the way up to Low-A and High-A, hitting .250 at both levels. He played all 4 corner positions, struggling to the tune of a .948 Fld% at 1st, although he did post a .983 Fld% in RF and 1.000 Fld% in 10 games in LF and 1 at 3rd. Maybe he could be a utility player down the line. ETA: September 2013 or 2014...23 year old Robert Lyerly had a great offensive season in '10, hitting .312 with 36 doubles, 7 homers, 71 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 131 games for Low-A Charleston. But, notice I said "offensive season", not just "season". Lyerly posted a completely disastrous .873 Fld% at 3rd base, his primary position, and just a .978 Fld% at 1st base as well. Well, he's certainly a much better 1st baseman than 3rd baseman. He improve his fielding and keep, hitting at every level if he wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2013 or 2014
Second basemen:
David Adams: David Adams was off to a great start in '10, hitting .309 with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, and a .393 OBP through 39 games. He hadn't even committed an error at 2nd base, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld%! But, then he fractured his ankle and was done for the year. The question is how Adams will come back. It is possible to develop arthritis after an injury like that, but I'm sure the doctors did everything they can to prevent that from happening. If Adams is fine next season, his bat could propel him to the majors by September. Should he be promoted, he also has experience at 3rd base. He is 23 years old. ETA: September 2011 if healthy, September 2012 or 2013 if recovery takes longer than expected
Reegie Corona: Corona had a bad year at the plate in '10, hitting just .238 with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 31 RBI, 14 SB, and a .306 OBP in 105 games at Triple-A Scranton, but he shined defensively. He posted a .998 Fld% at 2nd base, making just 1 error all season. That's even better than Robinson Cano, who will likely win a Gold Glove this year after posting a .996 Fld%, making just 3 errors all year. Corona also played both SS and 3rd base, but he struggling mightily at those positions, posting a .909 Fld% in 8 games at SS and a .895 Fld% in 9 games at 3rd base. Corona profiles well as a utility infielder. He has just a slight chance of winning a spot on the big league roster during spring training in 2011, but should join the big league club at least in September. ETA: Sometime in 2011
Others: 22 year old Corban Joseph had a nice year in 2010, hitting .283 with 33 doubles, 6 homers, 64 RBI, 7 triples, and a .362 OBP in 129 games between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. He did only hit .216 at Trenton after hitting .302 at Tampa. Defensively is another story. He posted just a .967 Fld% at 2B, not horrible, but pretty bad. He definitely needs work on his defense, but his bat should eventually get him to the majors. He will be 22 this month. ETA: September 2013...26 year old Kevin Russo made his MLB debut for the Yankees, hitting .184 with 4 RBI in 31 games. He did post an 1.000 Fld% at both 2nd base and 3rd base, but posted just a .933 Fld% while playing LF (he only made 1 error). His season in the minors was sort of like that also. After hitting .326 in '09, he hit just .259. He posted a great .992 Fld% at 2nd base, but also played every other position besides 1st base, pitcher, and catcher. He wasn't good at any of the other infield positions (.963 Fld% at SS and a .906 Fld% at 3B), or LF (.962 Fld%), but he did post an 1.000 Fld% in 6 combined games in CF and RF. He'll never be a good player, but he will be on the Yankees at some point in '11 as a super-utility player. ETA: He already has arrived, but he'll arrive again sometime in '11
Third base:
Laird (see above)
Bradley Suttle: Suttle rebounded in '10 after missing all of '09 with shoulder surgery. He hit .272 in 133 games for High-A Tampa, with 33 doubles, 10 homers, 80 RBI, 12 SB, and a .340 OBP. But, he posted a sub-par .951 Fld%. Already 24, Suttle really has to make up for his lost time in a hurry. He must improve defensively to continue his great hitting next season for Trenton if he even wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2012
Lyerly (see above)
Rob Segedin: Rob Segedin had a rough first 22 pro games. The Yankees' 3rd round pick in June hit just .244 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, and 10 RBI, and a .344 OBP in 22 games, all but 2 at SS-A Staten Island (the others were at Rookie ball). His defense was even worse, as he posted a .929 Fld% at 3rd base. He definitely needs a lot of work, both offensively and defensively. He will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2014 or 2015
Shortstop:
Eduardo Nunez: Nunez hit .280 with a homer and 5 SB in 30 games for the Yankees after a great 2010 in the minors. He posted an 1.000 Fld% at SS and a .944 Fld% at 3rd (1 error). But, he didn't make the postseason roster (Greg Golson made the team instead). Nunez hit .289 at Triple-A Scranton with 25 doubles, 4 homers, 50 RBI, 23 SB, and a .340 OBP in 118 games. He posted a .976 Fld% at SS in the minors, but just .917 Fld% at 3rd in 11 games, and just a .889 Fld% at 2B in 5 games. If Nunez wants to be a utility infielder for the Yankees in 2011, he must improve his defense. He is 23 years old. ETA: He has already arrived, and will likely make the Yankees out of spring training in 2011
Cito Culver: Culver, the Yankees' 2010 first round pick, struggled in his first taste of pro ball. He did OK at Rookie ball, hitting .269 with 7 doubles, 2 homers, 18 RBI, 6 SB, and a .320 OBP in 41 games. He posted a bad .918 Fld% at SS, but that's the case with most young shortstops. Culver was then promoted to SS-A Staten Island for some reason, and of course he struggled even more against older competition. He hit just .186 in 15 games game and posted just an .897 Fld%. Culver obviously had a disappointing debut, but he's just 18 and has plenty of time to improve. He is set up to be Derek Jeter's replacement at SS, and Jeter isn't going to retire for at least another couple of years. Culver has to improve both offensively and defensively, or Eduardo Nunez might end up replacing Jeter. ETA: Hopefully September 2014, before replacing Jeter in 2015
Others: 20 year old Jose Pirela had a good season for High-A Tampa, hitting just .252, but with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 61 RBI, 13 triples, 30 SB, and a .329 OBP in 130 games. He isn't as good defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at SS (in addition to a .957 Fld% at 2B). If he can improve defensively, maybe he will be a dark house for the starting SS job after Jeter. (If Jeter retires before 2014, Pirela could compete with Nunez to be the starting SS, at least until Culver arrives in the majors.) He will be 21 in November. ETA: 2012 to 2013... 17 year old Angelo Gumbs, the Yankees 2nd round pick in the '10 draft, had a terrible first 7 games, hitting .192 with no homers or RBI's (although he stole 3 bases), and posting just a .880 Fld% (3 errors). Gumbs, who may eventually be moved to the outfield because of Culver, needs a lot of work. ETA: September 2015...
Outfielders:
Slade Heathcott: 2009 1st round pick Slade Heathcott has had an "interesting" start to his career. Originally considered a 5-tool prospect, Heathcott has only shown some of those tools. Heathcott only hit .258 in '10 for Low-A Charleston, so he doesn't appear to be a good hitter for average. Heathcott struck out 101 times, but he did post a .359 OBP. He only 2 homers in '10, so his power hasn't developed yet. But, that's pretty common for young hitters to have their power develop later, and he did have 16 doubles in 76 games. He did show some speed, stealing 15 bases, hitting 3 triples, and scoring 48 runs in those 76 games. But, he was caught stealing 10 times for just a 60% SB success rate. Heathcott posted just a .953 Fld% in '10 (7 errors), so he doesn't seem to be a great defensive player, at least in CF. But, he did have 8 outfield assists, showing off his great arm. (Could he move to RF in the future?) Heathcott struck out 101 times and posted a .359 OBP. Heathcott might develop into a better all-around player, but so far he's been a bust. He has to improve his BA, improve his SB success rate, and improve his defense while waiting for his power to develop. Hopefully that will happen sooner rather than later. He turned 20 on September 28th. ETA: September 2013
Melky Mesa: If you thought the Yankees would never have a Melky again, you were wrong. Melky Mesa hit just .260 for High-A Tampa, but with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 31 SB, 81 runs, and a .338 OBP in 121 games. He posted a good .985 Fld% in CF (3 errors) with 6 outfield assists in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF. He really seems like a blue-chip prospect, but after spending 3 seasons in Rookie and SS-A ball, he's already 23 years old and will turn 24 on January 31st. Still, if Mesa can put up those kind of numbers in the higher levels of the minors, Mesa will have some future with the Yankees. He better move fast, starting with Double-A in 2011. As a legitimate 4-tool prospect (all tools besides BA), Mesa really has a chance. Hopefully he will make the majors in September 2012 after a solid campaign at Triple-A. ETA: September 2012
Others: 24 year old Colin Curtis hit .289 with 24 doubles, 5 homers, 27 RBI, and a .358 OBP in just 66 games at Triple-A Scranton in '10. The reason he played so few games was that he was called up to the Yankees on June 21st because of injuries to Curtis Granderson and Marcus Thames. Before being sent down on July 30th, Curtis hit .256 with a homer and 8 RBI (he didn't any hits in while posting an 1.000 Fld% in both LF and RF (but, his range factor was way below the league average). He also posted an 1.000 Fld% in the minors. Curtis might never be a starter in the outfield for the Yanks, but he could be a valuable bench player. He will be 25 in February. ETA: He already has arrived, and he will likely make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training... 23 year old Deangelo Mack had a pretty good year in '10, hitting .252 with 20 doubles, 12 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 5 SB (7 CS), and a .333 OBP in 116 games for Low-A Charleston. He's a little bit old, but he could potentially provide power off the bench. He better progress in a hurry. ETA: September 2012 (otherwise he probably won't make the majors)...25 year old Ray Kruml is another relatively old prospect, but he has legitimate speed. He hit .267 in 117 games between High-A and Low-A in '10, with 14 doubles, 1 homer, 21 RBI, and a .314 OBP in, all of which are sub-par, but he stole 42 bases while being caught 8 times. He's not a great outfielder, as he posted a .976 Fld% in CF, and a .973 Fld% in LF (in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF). He doesn't seem like even an average player, but maybe he could be a pinch-runner for the Yankees since Brett Gardner is now a starter. ETA: August 2013 (so he could possibly be on the playoff roster that year)...2010 4th rounder Mason Williams, a 19 year old CF, received the largest bonus the Yankees gave out this year, even more than 1st rounder Cito Culver. He hit .222 in 18 at-bats, so we really have no idea how good he'll be or how he'll progress. ETA: My guess is September 2014, but I have no idea
Pitchers:
Andrew Brackman: 2007 1st rounder Andrew Brackman finally got on track. After going 2-12 with a 5.91 ERA in 19 starts and 10 relief apperances for Low-A Charleston in '09, one year after Tommy John surgery, and 5-4 with a 5.10 ERA in 12 starts for High-A Tampa to begin '10, Brackman was promoted to Double-A Trenton and did great. He went just 5-7, but with a 3.01 ERA and 70 K's in 14 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 80.2 IP. This is the pitcher that the Yankees drafted in the 1st round! Hopefully he continues his success in '11, and we'll see him in September. He'll be 25 in December. ETA: September 2011
Ivan Nova: Nova certainly had his best season in '10. He went 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 135 K's in 23 starts and 145 IP before being promoted to the majors (he made his MLB debut earlier in 2010, tossing 3 scoreless innings in 2 relief appearances). After being promoted to stay on August 23rd, Nova went 1-2 with a 4.85 ERA in 7 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 39 IP. That's certainly not good, but it was decent enough to consider Nova for a rotation spot in 2011 (if the Yankees don't sign Cliff Lee). Nova has a promising future ahead for the Yankees, whether as a starter, or a reliever. ETA: Nova has already arrived, and should make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training
David Phelps: Phelps might be the only Yankee pitching prospect who had a better season than Nova in '10. Phelps went 10-2 with a 2.50 ERA in 141 K's in 25 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 158.2 IP. He was completely dominant. He had a 4 to 1 K/BB ratio (8.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9), and just a 7.9 H/9 ratio. His ERA did go up to 3.07 at Triple-A, but even that's good! Phelps is another Yankee starter with a very promising future, but he is a little bit older than Nova at 24. We'll see him in September 2011 along with Brackman. ETA: September 2011
Manny Banuelos: Banuelos had another great year despite missing time with an appendectomy. He went just 0-4 between Rookie ball, High-A, and Double-A, but with a 2.51 ERA and 85 K's in 15 starts and 64.2 IP. That's an 11.5 K/9! He posted his worst ERA among the 3 levels, 3.52, at Double-A, and understandably why. Just 19 years old, Banuelos is an incredible prospect. He should return to Double-A in '11, go to Triple-A in '12, and be promoted to the majors in September of '12. Even then, he'll be just be just 21 years old. ETA: September 2012
Others: 22 year old Dellin Betances went 8-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 108 K's in 17 starts and 85.1 IP between High-A and Double-A. He had a great 4.91 K/BB ratio (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9). His ERA jumped from 1.77 in High-A to 3.77 in Double-A, but that had to be expected. Hopefully he can do better at Double-A in '11, and do well enough at Triple-A in '12 to be promoted in September of that year. ETA: September 2012... 23 year old Graham Stoneburner had a great year in '10, going 9-8 with a 2.41 ERA and 137 K's in 26 starts and 142 IP between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa. He posted a great 4.03 BB/9 (8.7 K/9 and a 2.2 BB/9) while allowing just 6.8 hits per 9 innings. He's a bit old to be in High-A, but a good year in Double-A in '11 and in Triple-A in '12 will get him to the Yankees in September 2012 at age 24 (his birthday is in late September). If he continues to dominate the minors, the Yankees will find a place for him on the roster. ETA: September 2012...18 year old Gabriel Encinas, the Yankees' 6th round pick this year, is a 6"3 righty with great control. He is a sinkerballer with a curveball that has shown flashes and an OK changeup. He could be something in the future. He has yet to make his pro debut. ETA: September 2014 (?)... 21 year old reliever Thomas Kahnle, the Yankee 5th round pick in 2010, had a nice pro debut, posting a 0.56 ERA in 11 relief apperances for SS-A Staten Island. Not that those stats mean so much, but it's always positive to put up a 0.56 ERA at any level. Maybe we'll see him at some point. ETA: September 2013...27 year old starter Lance Pendelton went 12-5 with a 3.61 ERA and 133 K's in 27 starts, 2 relief apperances, and 154.2 IP. He is a bit old, but he has a chance to make an impact in the majors in the near future, probably as a reliever. He has 14 career relief appearances in the minors. He better make the majors soon if he ever wants a chance, with Brackman and Phelps coming. ETA: Sometime in 2011, if ever... 25 year old switch-pitcher Pat Venditte went 5-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 89 K's in 43 relief apperances, 6 saves, and 74.2 IP between High-A and Double-A. But, he struggled at Double-A, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in 2 relief appearances. Venditte will certainly have to turn that around in '11. Already 25 years old, Venditte better dominate Double-A in '11 and Triple-A in '12 and get promoted by September '12 at age 27. He'll make it to the majors eventually because he's such a novelty, but if he ever wants to be a quality reliever in the majors, he better get there quickly. ETA: September 2012
Many of the players I have mentioned will never make the majors, but there is a good chance that a couple of the players I mentioned will be All-Stars for the Yankees.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Is it time for Montero in the Bronx?
The Yankees bench has seemed a bit short this season. Outside of Marcus Thames, the Yankees never have a good hitter to come off the bench. Should the Yankees call up top prospect Jesus Montero? He has been known as a great hitter, and can also be the 3rd catcher on the team. There have been times where the Yankees have pinch-hit for Cervelli with Posada on days that Posada initially got the day off, but they couldn't pinch-run for Posada because he was the last catcher left on the roster. Right now, Ramiro Pena is the 3rd catcher, and he has never played a single professional game at catcher in his life. Would it help to have Montero on the roster? Yes, certainly. But, should he be called up right after the All-Star Break?
Jesus Montero, the top prospect in the Yankees organization according to Baseball America, undoubtedly has the potential to b e a great hitter. In '08 with Low-A Charleston, Montero hit .326 with 34 doubles, 17 homers, 87 RBI, and a .376 OBP in 132 games. In '09, he hit .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. But, Montero hasn't done anywhere near as well at Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre, hitting just .252 with 19 doubles, 7 homers, 37 RBI, and a .328 OBP in 79 games. Why promote a .252 hitter to the majors? None of the players promoted by the Yankees to the majors this year who didn't make the team out of spring training have hit under .271 in the minors this season. But, Montero will definitely hit at some point and he'll have to adjust to the majors just like he's been adjusting to Triple-A. He's certainly a better hitter than Ramiro Pena or Kevin Russo. Do the Yankees really need two utility infielders? He has even done pretty well defensively this year, posting a .992 Fld% and a 21% CS% despite not being known as a good defensive catcher! Still, the Yankees will not promote Montero until September at the earliest. He is used to being an everyday player in the minors. But, that stop the Yankees from calling up Curtis, Huffman, Russo, and all these other guys! Well, Montero is a different case. He has no versatility. All he can do is catch and DH. In contrast, Curtis and Huffman play right field and left field, and Russo plays 2nd base, 3rd base, SS, and left field. But, the Yankees still called up Juan Miranda who only plays 1st base and DH! But, that was a different situation, as not only Nick Johnson was hurt, as he is now, but also Curtis Granderson was hurt. The Yankees don't have an open roster spot because of an injury that would allow them to call up Montero without sending someone down. An injury could change things, but at this point, it doesn't make any sense for the Yankees to call up Jesus Montero.
Jesus Montero, the top prospect in the Yankees organization according to Baseball America, undoubtedly has the potential to b e a great hitter. In '08 with Low-A Charleston, Montero hit .326 with 34 doubles, 17 homers, 87 RBI, and a .376 OBP in 132 games. In '09, he hit .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. But, Montero hasn't done anywhere near as well at Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre, hitting just .252 with 19 doubles, 7 homers, 37 RBI, and a .328 OBP in 79 games. Why promote a .252 hitter to the majors? None of the players promoted by the Yankees to the majors this year who didn't make the team out of spring training have hit under .271 in the minors this season. But, Montero will definitely hit at some point and he'll have to adjust to the majors just like he's been adjusting to Triple-A. He's certainly a better hitter than Ramiro Pena or Kevin Russo. Do the Yankees really need two utility infielders? He has even done pretty well defensively this year, posting a .992 Fld% and a 21% CS% despite not being known as a good defensive catcher! Still, the Yankees will not promote Montero until September at the earliest. He is used to being an everyday player in the minors. But, that stop the Yankees from calling up Curtis, Huffman, Russo, and all these other guys! Well, Montero is a different case. He has no versatility. All he can do is catch and DH. In contrast, Curtis and Huffman play right field and left field, and Russo plays 2nd base, 3rd base, SS, and left field. But, the Yankees still called up Juan Miranda who only plays 1st base and DH! But, that was a different situation, as not only Nick Johnson was hurt, as he is now, but also Curtis Granderson was hurt. The Yankees don't have an open roster spot because of an injury that would allow them to call up Montero without sending someone down. An injury could change things, but at this point, it doesn't make any sense for the Yankees to call up Jesus Montero.
Friday, July 9, 2010
A review of every significant Yankee trade since '08
Nearly every year, the Yankees make a deal or two to acquire some veterans in exchange for some prospects and/or young major league players. Let's look at these trades (since '08), how the former Yankees and Yankee prospects have been doing, and how the players acquired in the trades by the Yankees have been doing in order to see whether the trades have ended being a good trades for the Yanks. I'll go through these in reverse chronological order.
In December of '09, the Yankees acquired RHP Javier Vazquez and left-handed reliever Boone Logan in exchange for major league OF Melky Cabrera, left-handed pitching prospect Mike Dunn, and right-handed pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino. Melky has hit .257 for the Braves with 12 doubles, 2 homers, 23 RBI, 3 SB, and a .314 OBP in 82 games. Dunn has gone 2-0 at Triple-A Gwinnett, with a 1.11 ERA and 54 K's in 31 relief appearances and 40.2 IP. Vizcaino went 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 66 K's in 12 starts and 69.1 IP for Low-A Rome before being promoted to High-A Myrtle Beach, where he has gone 0-0 with a 4.61 ERA and 11 K's in 3 starts and 13.2 IP. It's too early to tell, but this has been a pretty even trade so far. The Yankees traded a decent major league player and two good prospects for Vazquez, who is starting to pitch like a great pitcher, and a pretty good reliever in Boone Logan.
Also in December of '09, the Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks made a 3-way trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yanks, Edwin Jackson and Yankees RHP prospect Ian Kennedy to the D-backs, and Arizona right-handed relief prospect Mark Schlereth and right-handed major league starter Max Scherzer going to Detroit along with Yankee CF prospect Austin Jackson and major league lefty reliever Phil Coke. Let's look at how Kennedy, Coke, and Jackson have done for their respective teams. Kennedy has gone 3-7 with a 4.16 ERA and 95 K's in 17 starts and 106 IP. He has been a pretty starter for the D-backs. Coke has been a great reliever for Detroit, going 5-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 28 K's in 40 relief appearances and 34.2 IP. Jackson has hit .306 as the regular centerfielder for the Tigers, with 20 doubles, 1 homer, 20 RBI, 4 triples, 13 SB, and a .355 OBP in 75 games. I guess we have to compare Jackson to Granderson. Granderson has hit .225 with 8 doubles, 7 homers, 23 RBI, 4 triples, 7 SB, and a .300 OBP in 60 games. He missed nearly a month with a groin injury. Jackson has posted a better BA, OBP, and he stole more bases than Granderson so far in '10, but despite the missed time, Granderson has posted better power numbers and tied Jackson in triples. It's a debate who's better, but trading Jackson along with Kennedy and Coke for Granderson does not seem like a good trade for the Yankees. Of course, Granderson could turn it on at any time and make all of us forget about these prospects. But, he hasn't yet, so we have to consider this trade a bad trade for the Yankees right now.
At the trade deadline in '09, the Yankees traded minor league catcher Chris Weems to the Reds in exchange for utility player Jerry Hairston Jr. Weems is hitting just .222 at Low-A Dayton, with 2 doubles, 0 homers, 3 RBI, and a .263 OBP in 14 games. Hairston hit .237 with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 45 gamesfor the Yankees in '09 while playing every outfield position, and every infield position besides 1st base. He's hitting .245 for the Padres in '10, with 8 doubles, 5 homers, 30 RBI, 5 SB, and a .286 OBP in 76 games. This trade was a steal for the Yankees. They traded a struggling prospect for a good major league utility player.
One month before the trade deadline, the Yankees traded minor league LHP Casey Erickson and catching and outfield prospect Eric Fryer in exchange for Eric Hinske, who plays both corner outfield and corner infield positions. Erickson has gone 3-2 for High-A Bradenton, with a 4.02 ERA and 43 K's in 16 relief appearances, 6 starts, and 53.2 IP. Fryer is hitting .274 at High-A Bradenton, with 13 doubles, 7 homers, 34 RBI, 4 triples, 5 SB, and a .373 OBP in 57 games. Hinske hit .226 with the Yankees in '09, with 3 doubles, 7 homers, 14 RBI, and a .316 OBP in 39 games. He really didn't play very much at all. He had just 84 at-bats with the Yankees. With the Braves in '10, he has hit .278 with 16 doubles, 6 homers, 34 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 71 games. This trade was a bad trade for the Yankees. They traded a pretty good prospect in Fryer and a decent prospect in Erickson in exchange for a player who barely played for them.
Five days before the trade deadline in '08, the Yankees traded right-handed pitching prospects Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen, major league right-hander Ross Ohlendorf, and LF prospect Jose Tabata to the Pirates in exchange for left-handed reliever Damaso Marte and OF Xavier Nady. Karsten has gone 2-3 with a 4.71 ERA and 36 K's in 10 start, 6 relief appearances, and 72.2 IP. He went 1-2 with a 7.31 ERA and 12 K's in 4 relief appearances, 1 start, and 16 IP. McCutchen has gone 1-4 for Pittsburgh in '10, with a 8.58 ERA and 16 K's in 6 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 28.1 IP. Ohlendorf has gone 1-6 with a 4.39 ERA and 45 K's in 12 starts and 67.2 IP. He went 11-10 with a 3.92 ERA and 109 K's in 29 starts and 176.2 IP in '09. Tabata is hitting .235 for the Pirates with 6 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, 7 SB, and a .304 OBP in 25 games. Nady hit .270 with 15 doubles, 12 homers, 42 RBI, and a .319 OBP in 66 games with the Yankees between the '08 and '09 seasons. He missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury. Marte has gone 6-2 with a 6.02 ERA in 76 relief appearances with the Yanks from '07 to '10. But, Marte was untouchable in the '09 postseason, giving up no runs on 2 hits in 8 relief appearances and 4 IP. The Yankees traded 4 prospects who Pittsburgh has called up already for a player who was injured most of his time with the team and a reliever who has posted below-average numbers. This trade has been a complete disaster for the Yankees, but at least it gave Marte the opportunity to perform the way he did in the '09 playoffs.
The Yankees have not made good trades the last few years. Among these trades, I would say that only 1 trade (the Hairston trade) was a good trade for the Yankees, 2 trades were bad (Hinske and Nady/Marte) with the Granderson trade seeming to be bad, but it's too early to tell, and the Vazquez trade being a pretty even trade. I hope the Yankees can make better trades at the 2010 trade deadline and during the 2010 offseason.
In December of '09, the Yankees acquired RHP Javier Vazquez and left-handed reliever Boone Logan in exchange for major league OF Melky Cabrera, left-handed pitching prospect Mike Dunn, and right-handed pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino. Melky has hit .257 for the Braves with 12 doubles, 2 homers, 23 RBI, 3 SB, and a .314 OBP in 82 games. Dunn has gone 2-0 at Triple-A Gwinnett, with a 1.11 ERA and 54 K's in 31 relief appearances and 40.2 IP. Vizcaino went 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 66 K's in 12 starts and 69.1 IP for Low-A Rome before being promoted to High-A Myrtle Beach, where he has gone 0-0 with a 4.61 ERA and 11 K's in 3 starts and 13.2 IP. It's too early to tell, but this has been a pretty even trade so far. The Yankees traded a decent major league player and two good prospects for Vazquez, who is starting to pitch like a great pitcher, and a pretty good reliever in Boone Logan.
Also in December of '09, the Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks made a 3-way trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yanks, Edwin Jackson and Yankees RHP prospect Ian Kennedy to the D-backs, and Arizona right-handed relief prospect Mark Schlereth and right-handed major league starter Max Scherzer going to Detroit along with Yankee CF prospect Austin Jackson and major league lefty reliever Phil Coke. Let's look at how Kennedy, Coke, and Jackson have done for their respective teams. Kennedy has gone 3-7 with a 4.16 ERA and 95 K's in 17 starts and 106 IP. He has been a pretty starter for the D-backs. Coke has been a great reliever for Detroit, going 5-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 28 K's in 40 relief appearances and 34.2 IP. Jackson has hit .306 as the regular centerfielder for the Tigers, with 20 doubles, 1 homer, 20 RBI, 4 triples, 13 SB, and a .355 OBP in 75 games. I guess we have to compare Jackson to Granderson. Granderson has hit .225 with 8 doubles, 7 homers, 23 RBI, 4 triples, 7 SB, and a .300 OBP in 60 games. He missed nearly a month with a groin injury. Jackson has posted a better BA, OBP, and he stole more bases than Granderson so far in '10, but despite the missed time, Granderson has posted better power numbers and tied Jackson in triples. It's a debate who's better, but trading Jackson along with Kennedy and Coke for Granderson does not seem like a good trade for the Yankees. Of course, Granderson could turn it on at any time and make all of us forget about these prospects. But, he hasn't yet, so we have to consider this trade a bad trade for the Yankees right now.
At the trade deadline in '09, the Yankees traded minor league catcher Chris Weems to the Reds in exchange for utility player Jerry Hairston Jr. Weems is hitting just .222 at Low-A Dayton, with 2 doubles, 0 homers, 3 RBI, and a .263 OBP in 14 games. Hairston hit .237 with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 45 gamesfor the Yankees in '09 while playing every outfield position, and every infield position besides 1st base. He's hitting .245 for the Padres in '10, with 8 doubles, 5 homers, 30 RBI, 5 SB, and a .286 OBP in 76 games. This trade was a steal for the Yankees. They traded a struggling prospect for a good major league utility player.
One month before the trade deadline, the Yankees traded minor league LHP Casey Erickson and catching and outfield prospect Eric Fryer in exchange for Eric Hinske, who plays both corner outfield and corner infield positions. Erickson has gone 3-2 for High-A Bradenton, with a 4.02 ERA and 43 K's in 16 relief appearances, 6 starts, and 53.2 IP. Fryer is hitting .274 at High-A Bradenton, with 13 doubles, 7 homers, 34 RBI, 4 triples, 5 SB, and a .373 OBP in 57 games. Hinske hit .226 with the Yankees in '09, with 3 doubles, 7 homers, 14 RBI, and a .316 OBP in 39 games. He really didn't play very much at all. He had just 84 at-bats with the Yankees. With the Braves in '10, he has hit .278 with 16 doubles, 6 homers, 34 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 71 games. This trade was a bad trade for the Yankees. They traded a pretty good prospect in Fryer and a decent prospect in Erickson in exchange for a player who barely played for them.
Five days before the trade deadline in '08, the Yankees traded right-handed pitching prospects Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen, major league right-hander Ross Ohlendorf, and LF prospect Jose Tabata to the Pirates in exchange for left-handed reliever Damaso Marte and OF Xavier Nady. Karsten has gone 2-3 with a 4.71 ERA and 36 K's in 10 start, 6 relief appearances, and 72.2 IP. He went 1-2 with a 7.31 ERA and 12 K's in 4 relief appearances, 1 start, and 16 IP. McCutchen has gone 1-4 for Pittsburgh in '10, with a 8.58 ERA and 16 K's in 6 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 28.1 IP. Ohlendorf has gone 1-6 with a 4.39 ERA and 45 K's in 12 starts and 67.2 IP. He went 11-10 with a 3.92 ERA and 109 K's in 29 starts and 176.2 IP in '09. Tabata is hitting .235 for the Pirates with 6 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, 7 SB, and a .304 OBP in 25 games. Nady hit .270 with 15 doubles, 12 homers, 42 RBI, and a .319 OBP in 66 games with the Yankees between the '08 and '09 seasons. He missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury. Marte has gone 6-2 with a 6.02 ERA in 76 relief appearances with the Yanks from '07 to '10. But, Marte was untouchable in the '09 postseason, giving up no runs on 2 hits in 8 relief appearances and 4 IP. The Yankees traded 4 prospects who Pittsburgh has called up already for a player who was injured most of his time with the team and a reliever who has posted below-average numbers. This trade has been a complete disaster for the Yankees, but at least it gave Marte the opportunity to perform the way he did in the '09 playoffs.
The Yankees have not made good trades the last few years. Among these trades, I would say that only 1 trade (the Hairston trade) was a good trade for the Yankees, 2 trades were bad (Hinske and Nady/Marte) with the Granderson trade seeming to be bad, but it's too early to tell, and the Vazquez trade being a pretty even trade. I hope the Yankees can make better trades at the 2010 trade deadline and during the 2010 offseason.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Just how bad was Randy Winn?
On Friday, Curtis Granderson returned from the DL and the Yankees designated Randy Winn for assignment to make room for him. So, basically the Yanks are admitting that they wasted 1.1 million by signing Winn. So, that begs the question of just how bad was Randy Winn.
I was a little bit skeptical the moment the Yanks signed Winn (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/557725-yankees-lf-winn-is-the-answer), but I didn't think he would be this bad. See the link above (copy into your browser and click enter) for Winn's career stats and those kinds of things, but here I want to go into specifically how bad Winn was in '10.
Let's start with just the regular stats: Winn hit just .213 in '10 for the Yanks with 0 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homer, 8 RBI, 1 SB, and a .300 OBP. Those stats are really bad to begin with. At least defensively he has an 1.000 Fld% in LF and RF. So let's go inside those stats. Against righties, Winn (a switch-hitter) hit .260, but against lefties, he hit .000. That's right .000. That makes Granderson's .183 BA against lefties last year look good! And Winn's a switch-hitter! I know it was just 11 at-bats, but that's inexcusable. Away from Yankee stadium, Winn hit .250, but at home, Winn hit just .182. Or how about this one! In wins, Winn hit .188, and in losses, Winn hit .241. He hit better in losses! Isn't that the exact opposite of his name!
I know a lot of people who think that Randy Winn always gets out in the clutch. Well, they're all right. Winn hit just .120 with runners in scoring position, .118 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position, and just .118 with runners on base at all. And, with the bases empty, he hit .333. Anyone is clutch compared to Randy Winn so far in '10.
To be fair, Winn did have a couple of offensive stats in his favor. After batting just .077 in May, he did hit .250 in April. Also, he hit just .125 coming off the bench, but as a starter, he did hit .226. Maybe this wasn't completely Winn's fault. But, you can't expect to hit .213 without at least a decent amount of homers and RBI's (yes, I'm talking about Teixeira) and expect to remain a Yankee for very long. He got out-hit by Kevin Russo. I know Russo is playing well, but come on! Winn didn't deserve to get the chance to win in the Bronx.
I was a little bit skeptical the moment the Yanks signed Winn (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/557725-yankees-lf-winn-is-the-answer), but I didn't think he would be this bad. See the link above (copy into your browser and click enter) for Winn's career stats and those kinds of things, but here I want to go into specifically how bad Winn was in '10.
Let's start with just the regular stats: Winn hit just .213 in '10 for the Yanks with 0 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homer, 8 RBI, 1 SB, and a .300 OBP. Those stats are really bad to begin with. At least defensively he has an 1.000 Fld% in LF and RF. So let's go inside those stats. Against righties, Winn (a switch-hitter) hit .260, but against lefties, he hit .000. That's right .000. That makes Granderson's .183 BA against lefties last year look good! And Winn's a switch-hitter! I know it was just 11 at-bats, but that's inexcusable. Away from Yankee stadium, Winn hit .250, but at home, Winn hit just .182. Or how about this one! In wins, Winn hit .188, and in losses, Winn hit .241. He hit better in losses! Isn't that the exact opposite of his name!
I know a lot of people who think that Randy Winn always gets out in the clutch. Well, they're all right. Winn hit just .120 with runners in scoring position, .118 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position, and just .118 with runners on base at all. And, with the bases empty, he hit .333. Anyone is clutch compared to Randy Winn so far in '10.
To be fair, Winn did have a couple of offensive stats in his favor. After batting just .077 in May, he did hit .250 in April. Also, he hit just .125 coming off the bench, but as a starter, he did hit .226. Maybe this wasn't completely Winn's fault. But, you can't expect to hit .213 without at least a decent amount of homers and RBI's (yes, I'm talking about Teixeira) and expect to remain a Yankee for very long. He got out-hit by Kevin Russo. I know Russo is playing well, but come on! Winn didn't deserve to get the chance to win in the Bronx.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Who are these new Yankees?
With all the injuries, the Yankees are having all these young players going up and down from Triple-A to the majors. Let me introduce you to them.
Greg Golson is a 24 year old outfielder who was brought up to the majors after the Granderson injury. So far in '10, he has just come in as a defensive replacement in one game, not making a single plate appearance, but recording a putout in centerfield. After that game, he was sent down to the minors. I wrote about him here http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/554465-yankees-rangers-trade and here http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/635445-with-cg-hurt-hows-the-yankee-of-situation-going-to-look.
Mark Melancon is a 25 year old relief pitcher. He made his major league debut in '09, going 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 10 K's in 13 relief appearances and and 16.1 IP. So far in '10, he has made 1 relief appearance, going 2 innings. His first inning was a scoreless inning, but he gave up 3 runs including 2 earned runs. Overall, he went 2 innings, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) on 2 hits, one of which was a homer, and striking out 1 batter. After that appearance, he was sent back down to the minors.
Romulo Sanchez is a 26 year old pitcher who was a starter in the minors but has only been a reliever in the majors. He made his Yankee debut on May 9th, going 3.2 innings and giving up no runs on 1 hit with 3 strikeouts. Could he be the next Aceves? After that appearance, he was sent down to the minors in favor of Ivan Nova because the Yanks knew he wouldn't be availible for at least a couple of days.
Ivan Nova has been a starter in the minors, but he will be a long reliever for the Yanks right now. He has done very well at Triple-A so far, posting a 2.43 ERA. My full article about him is here: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/641085-the-future-of-the-yankees-ivan-nova. I also mentioned him here: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/636845-whats-javier-vazquez-trade-value. His major league debut will be his first game he appears in this year with the Yankees.
Kevin Russo is a 25 year old infielder who the Yanks brought up after Cano briefly was hurt. He has appeared in 2 games, going 0 for 2 with 2 putouts in the field. In the minors, he is a career .300 hitter including hitting .326 at Triple-A in '09, but he has not done much else offensively. His best homer season was '09 with 5, while his best SB season was '07 with 19. The Yankees are trying to turn him into a Jerry Hairston Jr. type player, as he has played RF, CF, SS, 2B, and 3B so far at Triple-A. He is a natural second baseman.
The next Yankee to be called up will be Juan Miranda. Miranda had a nice year at Triple-A in '09, hitting .290 with 30 doubles, 19 homers, 82 RBI, and a .369 OBP in 122 games. He was called up to the Yankees in September and did well, going 3 for 9 with 1 homer and 3 RBI in 8 games. He will be a pinch hitter on the bench for Girardi after he has called up. Since Thames has mostly been a starter since Granderson and Johnson got hurt, the Yanks have not had a good pinch-hitter availible besides when a starter was getting a day off. Miranda should be able to fix that. Miranda, if even plays in the field, is a first baseman.
Of these players, it seems that only Ivan Nova has a bright future ahead with the Yankees. Of course, by playing well, all these other guys could have a future with the team as well. I hope these guys can just do well enough for us to win while we are dealing with these injuries.
Friday, May 7, 2010
What will the Yankees do with 3/4 of the Core 4 hurt?
Jorge Posada is hurt with a calf injury. Mariano Rivera has missed time with a side injury. Andy Pettitte will miss at least one start. What will the Yankees do without them?
Francisco Cervelli has done well so far filling in for Posada. He is hitting .371 with 0 homers, 6 RBI, and a .436 OBP. He has posted an 1.000 Fld% at catcher so far, but he has not thrown out any attempted basestealers yet. He is a fine backup, but not nearly as good as Posada. Posada has hit .290 so far with 5 homers, 12 RBI, and a .364 OBP. He has posted just a .984 Fld% at catcher, but he does have a 21% CS%. Posada hopefully will be back for at least one game in the Boston series, which starts tonight. The Yanks obviously aren't as good with Cervelli behind the plate, but they'll be okay.
Joba Chamberlain has done pretty well as the Yankee setup man and filled in very well for Rivera as the Yankee closer in the recent Orioles series. He's is 0-1 with a 2.92 ERA, 13 K's, and 2 saves in 13 relief appearances and 12.1 IP so far in '09. Both of his saves were in the Baltimore series. During his 2 saves, he pitched 2 innings, giving up only 1 hit and 1 walk, and strking out 3. Rivera should be back for tonight's game if necessary, but we know that Joba can fill in at closer. Granted, Rivera is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA with 9 K's and 7 saves in 10 relief apearances and 10 IP, but Joba could do fine as the closer if he's needed.
The situation with Pettitte is more complicated. Javier Vazquez isn't hurt, but he's performed so badly (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/636845-whats-javier-vazquez-trade-value) that his start will be skipped or at least delayed in addition to Pettitte. That makes 2 total spot-starts. Sergio Mitre, who is 0-0 with a 2.79 ERA in 5 relief appearances in '09, will make one of the spot starts. But, what about the other? Could it be Alfredo Aceves? Aceves is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in 9 relief appearances and 11 IP. Aceves did make 1 start in '09 and 4 starts in '08. Aceves hasn't even had a 3 inning appearance this year, so maybe he couldn't start a game. Vazquez might have to start a game after the Boston serie because of the Pettitte injury. Or, the Yankees could call up one of the prospects mentioned in the link above, Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister. Considering Nova is now 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA and McAllister, after a bad start, is now 0-2 with a 5.52 ERA, Nova would be much more likely to get the call. The Yankees would probably send down backup OF Greg Golson if they bring up Nova. Pettitte is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 6 starts, so it would be tough shoes for anyone to fill. Hopefully whoever spot-starts can give the Yankees 5 decent innings.
No team in the majors is as good when key players are injured. That's the case with the Yankees, with Posada (hopefully back very soon), Pettitte, and Curtis Granderson all injured right now (in additon to Park, but he's not a key player). The players filling in hopefully can do a decent job. The Yankees are still a very good team, and they will definitely compete. It will just be a bit harder.
(This is the post about the situation with Granderson injured: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/635445-with-cg-hurt-hows-the-yankee-of-situation-going-to-look)
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Monday, May 3, 2010
What's Javier Vazquez' trade value?
In this post I will deal with Vazquez' trade value and who would replace him if he is traded.
So, what's his trade value? Is it Melky Cabrera? Melky has a .213 BA and that's too high. Righties are hitting .318 against Vazquez and lefties are hitting .353. Maybe someone hitting .100 in the majors. No- make that Triple-A. And he has to be 28 or older. A 16-year old Dominican prospect? Well, at least the prospect has some potential. A career imnor leaguer? Maybe he would do well if given a chance in the majors. Does he even deserve a player-to-be-named? Only someone older than him. Cash? Maybe $1000.
The rumor is Vazquez to the Mets. So, what would they give the Yankees? Well, first of all, the Yanks would have to keep all of his 11.5 million dollar salary. So, who would it be? Probably a player-to-be-named-later. Let's look at the Mets' Triple-A franchise for someone hitting .100 and who is 28 or older years old. The closer player to fitting this bacteria is actually Omir Santos who is hitting .156 at Triple-A and is 29 years old. Santos was even drafted by the Yankees! But, Santos hit .260 with 7 homers for the Mets in '09, so maybe they wouldn't trade him. Still, the Mets do have Rod Barajas, Henry Blanco, and Josh Thole, so they could spare a catcher. Would the Yankees take Santos for Vazquez? No way. In all seriousness, the Mets would probably trade a decent prospect or two. Or, how about Daniel Murphy? Maybe the Yanks could use another bench player as least while Granderson is out. I'll say this- if the Mets want Vazquez, they better get him now. He won't be this bad soon. The Mets could get him for minimum value.
Now, let's say the Yanks trade Vazquez. Who's their 5th starter? I guess it's Sergio Mitre by default. He has gone 0-0 with a 1.23 ERA so far in 4 relief appearances as a long reliever. His best season as a starter was '07 with the Marlins when he went 5-8 with a 4.65 ERA. He has never had a good full season as a starter. Would he be better than Vazquez? I would doubt it. So, would the Yanks bring someone up from Triple-A? If so, the choice would be between Zach McAllister and Ivan Nova. McAllister has gone 0-1 at Triple-A with a 3.86 ERA. He has an 8.8 K/9 and a 2.6 BB/9. Nova has gone 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA at Scranton. He has an 8.4 K/9 and a 3.0 BB/9. McAllister is 22 years old and Nova is 23. Would the Yankees really want to bring up one of them to be the 5th starter right now? Well, if Vazquez is this bad and Mitre isn't good enough, the answer will be yes. But, the Yanks wouldn't prefer to do that.
Unless Vazquez continues to get killed in his next couple of starts, they shouldn't trade him. But, if a team (ex. the Mets) really wants Vazquez, they should trade for him right now.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
With Granderson hurt, how's the Yankee outfield situation going to look?
Curtis Granderson was placed on the 15-day DL today with a groin injury. What is the Yankee outfield going to look like without him?
RF: Nick Swisher has gotten off to a pretty good start, hitting .259 with 3 homers, 13 RBI, and a .348 OBP, but there's no reason to think that he won't be able to put up numbers similar to his '09 numbers (.249 BA, 29 homers, 82 RBI). He's currently on pace to hit 22 homers with 96 RBI. The Yankees would undoubtedly be happy with that. He has not made an error yet in right field, so he has an 1.000 Fld%. His primary backup in RF is Randy Winn, who has been a complete disaster so far. He has hit just .077 (1 hit in 13 at-bats) with 0 homers and 0 RBI. He also not made an error yet for an 1.000 Fld%. The Yankees have a pretty good situation in RF right now.
CF: Up until now, Curtis Granderson has been the starting centerfielder for the Yankees. He has hit .225 with 2 homers, 7 RBI, 4 SB, and a .310 OBP. He has also hasn't made an error yet. After a hot start the first series in Boston (.333 BA, 2 homers, 2 RBI), Granderson has been a disappointment, hitting .206 with 0 homers and 5 RBI. Yes I know he was in a slump, and it's only the beginning of May, but there was some reason to be worried. Hopefully Granderson will be better when he comes back. Brett Gardner will be the starting CF now. Gardner has gotten off to a good start, hitting .333 with 0 homers, 7 RBI, 10 SB, and a .397 OBP. He's on pace to steal 74 bases! Gardner has made 1 error in the outfield, so he has a .974 Fld%. That percentage should improve over time, as Gardner is a very good fielder. Winn can also play CF. With Granderson out and Gardner in, the Yanks have a good situation in CF.
LF: Gardner has been the primary starter in LF so far, but because he is moving to CF because of the Granderson injury, Marcus Thames will step in as the primary left fielder. He is hitting .550 with 1 homer, 2 RBI, and a .650 OBP, playing in only 9 games so far. All but 1 of his at-bats so far have been against lefties, so Winn should get at least some starts against righties. During his career, Thames has hit .266 versus lefties and .233 versus righties. Thames has not yet made an error in the outfield. It will be interesting to see how Thames does in a starting role.
The Yankee outfield is definitely worse without Granderson, but the current guys should be okay. But, If the Yanks need to call up another outfielder from the minors, it would probably be Greg Golson. Golson is hitting .275 with 2 homers, 7 RBI, 4 SB, and a .296 OBP at Triple-A. He has stolen at least 20 bases in the minors every season since '05. He has not yet made an error at CF or LF. He also played RF last year at Triple-A for the Rangers. I wrote about the details of his acquisition by the Yankees here: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/554465-yankees-rangers-trade. He isn't a very good player, but maybe he could hit better than the .077 that Winn is hitting right now. In conclusion, without Granderson the Yanks still have a pretty good outfield, and if necessary, they have another decent outfielder waiting at Triple-A.
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