One of the biggest things coming in the 2011 offseason is the impending free agency of Albert Pujols. He looks to command the biggest contract in MLB history, even corralling 30 million dollars a year. But who will pay him that kind of money? Let's go through the teams and see what the odds are for each team signing Pujols.
No chance
30. Rays
The Rays need help at first base, but considering they couldn't re-sign Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena, how in the world would they sign Pujols? Even if they have a small payroll and there's no chance they'll commit over half their 2012 salary to one player. There's a zero chance Pujols goes to the Rays.
Odds: 1 in 4,000,000,000
29. Royals
The Royals have a tiny payroll and Eric Hosmer as their first baseman of the future. The Royals don't need to make a big splash in free agency with the top prospects coming, and even if they did, they don't have anywhere near the money to sign Pujols. Pujols will not be going across the state of Missouri to Kansas City in 2012.
Odds: 1 in 1,000,000,000
28. Pirates
When was the last time the Pirates signed a big free agent? They just don't have the payroll. Lyle Overbay (arguably their biggest free agent signing of the 2010 offseason) isn't the long-term answer at first base, but the Pirates will have to look to the farm system or lower-tier free agents because Pujols will not be a Pirate (although I could see the headline now: "Pujols a Pirate").
Odds: 1 in 90,000,000
27. Blue Jays
The Jays couldn't even sign their own big impending free agent, Roy Halladay. How in the world would they sign Pujols?
Odds: 1 in 75,000,000
26. Diamondbacks
They haven't had a big signing in quite a while. Prospect Brandon Allen is the first baseman is the future, and he's certainly not a sure thing, and also the D-backs made a run at Paul Konerko, but they just don't have anywhere near enough money to make a run at Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 60,000,000
25. Brewers
If the Brewers had the money to sign Pujols, they would have extended Prince Fielder. Also, they just signed Ryan Braun to a huge deal.
Odds: 1 in 50,000,000
24. Padres
Ditto Brewers, but for Adrian Gonzalez. They haven't signed anybody to a big extension, but they have never had a lot of money to begin with.
Odds: 1 in 45,000,000
23. Reds
The Reds have a player they can build around in Joey Votto at first base, and they're a small-market team anyway.
Odds: 1 in 35,000,000
22. Indians
The Indians are playing out of their mind right now and you would think that they just need to continue adding fuel to the fire to keep contending. But, they have a good combination of veterans and young players right now, and they would certainly extend Grady Sizemore before signing Pujols. Not to mention that they don't have the money to sign Pujols anyway.
Odds: 1 in 20,000,000
21. Twins
The Twins have Justin Morneau at first base, and it's unlikely that they'll be able to afford another high-priced player.
Odds: 1 in 10,000,000
20. Giants
The Giants have Aubrey Huff and Brandon Belt, and we know they don't have 30 million dollars lying around.
Odds: 1 in 8,000,000
19. White Sox
The White Sox have some money, but they have both Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn. They're not signing Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 7,500,000
18. Mets
The Mets have had cash in the past, but we know that the Wilpons are cash-stricken and looking to add a minority owner. Even if they did somehow get the money, they'll be much more worried about signing Jose Reyes anyway. And of course, they have a promising player in Ike Davis at first base.
Odds: 1 in 5,000,000
17. Astros
They're getting a new owner, so you never no what their payroll would be, but they have Brett Wallace at first base, and the new owner wouldn't want to commit most of his payroll to Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 3,000,000
16. Athletics
The A's don't have the money, but I feel like Billy Beane could pull off a crazy sign-and-trade or something.
Odds: 1 in 2,500,000
15. Mariners
The Mariners have signed a couple of big free agents in recent years, but they don't appear to be contending anytime soon, and they have Justin Smoak, who should be manning first base for years to come.
Odds: 1 in 2,000,000
14. Marlins
The Marlins want to make a splash as they're moving into their new stadium, and they did spend a bit more money in the 2010 offseason, but 30 million dollars is a ton of money, and unless Pujols gives the Fish a "hometown discount" because they're the closest MLB team to the Dominican public, the Marlins won't be able to sign him.
Odds: 1 in 1,000,000
Probably not
13. Phillies
The entire baseball world is hoping that the Phillies don't scrape together enough pennies to sign Albert Pujols. I'm sure Ryan Howard is hoping too.
Odds: 1 in 10,000
12. Braves
The Braves have Freddie Freeman at first, and they don't have limitless funds, but they've made runs at big players in recent years.
Odds: 1 in 7,500
11. Tigers
Maybe the Tigers have money, but they have Miguel Cabrera, and they would have to catch Victor Martinez more often to fit in Pujols at DH. They'd also have to convince Pujols to play left field on an irregular basis (he did play most of 2003 in left field, but he hasn't played there since).
Odds: 1 in 5,000
10. Rockies
The Rockies have extended Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Is there any money left?
Odds: 1 in 3,500
9. Angels
The Angels made runs at Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford this past offseason, but failed to sign either of them, and they traded for the pricey Vernon Wells. The Angels don't have quite enough money to sign Pujols, and they also have two promising first baseman in Kendrys Morales and Mark Trumbo.
Odds: 1 in 2000
9. Red Sox
The Red Sox might have the money, but with Adrian Gonzalez at third, David Ortiz at DH, and even Carl Crawford in left field, the Red Sox would have to convince Pujols to play right field. Pujols did play 39 games there in 2001, but he has had some elbow problems since, and playing right field could kill his elbow and endanger his career. It's not impossible, but it's certainly a long-shot.
Odds: 1 in 1000
Don't completely count them out
7. Dodgers
They've spent quite a bit of money in the past. If they ever get that FOX TV deal signed, and their ownership situation resolved you never know what will happen, but the chances are certainly against Pujols being a Dodger.
Odds: 1 in 100
6. Orioles
The Orioles are starting to spend some money, and Derrek Lee was signed to just a one-year contract, but 30 million dollars is seemingly too much.
Odds: 1 in 75
5. Rangers
The Rangers have been spending money lately, but they already have a ton of money on the books and a logjam of players playing first base/DH including Mike Napoli and Michael Young. They theoretically could sign Pujols, but they probably will decide not to.
Odds: 1 in 60
4. Nationals
The Nats signed Jason Werth this past offseason and Adam LaRoche is coming off the books after the season, so you never know for sure.
Odds: 1 in 40
3. Yankees
You may think I'm crazy, but Pujols going to the Yankees is a semi-realistic possibility. It would be the same of situation as the Red Sox above with Mark Teixeira at first base, but the Yankees would certainly move Brett Gardner to give Pujols time in left field, and if they could sign Pujols, they would certainly be willing to trade Jesus Montero to give him time at DH as well.
Odds: 1 in 20
Contenders
2. Cubs
The Cubs have new owners, the Ricketts, and are dying to make Pujols a part of their team. They might actually be able to offer Pujols a 10 year, 300 million dollar contract. But would Pujols leave St. Louis?
Odds: 2 in 5
1. Cardinals
The Cardinals have been Pujols' team the past 11 years. They won a championship with him and have built a solid team around him. Why should he leave? But will the Cardinals offer him the 30 million a year?
Odds: 12 in 25
Results
Cardinals- 48% chance of re-signing Pujols
Cubs- 40% chance of signing Pujols
Yankees- 5% chance of signing Pujols
Nationals- 2.5% chance of signing Pujols
Rangers- 1.7% chance of signing Pujols
The field- 2.7% chance of signing Pujols
It's Cubs-Cardinals for the rights to have Pujols with the Yankees, Nationals, and Rangers having outside chances and every other team barely being involved if part of the picture at all. This should be interesting.
Showing posts with label Royals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Royals. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Gil Meche's sudden retirement shows that pitch counts do matter
For those of you who think that pitch counts are a complete joke, you're wrong.
On June 16th, 2009, Gil Meche had one of the best starts of his career. Through 8 innings, he had allowed no runs, and just 4 hits while striking out 5 and walking just one. He had thrown 110 pitches. Instead of bringing in a reliever to pitch the 9th in a 5-0 game, Royals manager Trey Hillman kept Meche in their. Meche retired the side 1-2-3 to complete his complete-game shutout, but he used 22 pitches to do so, finishing with 132 pitches on the day.
Gil Meche has retired from baseball at the age of 32. He said that he retired because of a shoulder injury that would have required surgery. After that fateful day, June 16th, 2009, Meche went just 2-10 with a 6.86 ERA. He was never the same after throwing 132 pitches in that game.
All the young pitchers are protected. They have innings limits and pitch count limits. Maybe so should the veterans too, to some extent.
Not all pitchers are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, or Cliff Lee. A lot of pitchers are much more fragile. The Mariners and the Royals weren't careful at all with Meche.
Two years after making his major league debut with the Mariners in 1999, Meche didn't appear in any major league games in 2001 and 2002 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. In 2003, he pitched 186.1 innings (going 15-3 with a 4.59 ERA), but he posted just a 6.19 ERA after June 20th. He had surpassed his career high for innings in the majors (he had thrown 175.2 innings between the majors and minors in 1999) in that June 20th start which lowered his ERA to 2.89. Fine, Meche only surpassed his career high for innings by just 9.2 IP, but remember that he was just coming off of Tommy John surgery. I'm not saying that the Mariners should have limited him so much after already missing two years to the surgery, but they shouldn't have let him surpass his career high for innings pitched.
In 2004, the Mariners seemingly made an adjustment for Meche, allowing him to throw just 127.2 major league innings, but don't be fooled- he pitched 57 innings at Triple-A as well. (He actually posted a higher ERA, 5.05, at Triple-A than in the majors, 5.01.) Finally in 2005, he was limited to just 143.1 IP, but he still posted a 5.09 ERA. Despite his second-straight year with an ERA over 5.00, the Mariners stuck with him in the last year under their control in '06, allowing him to throw a career high 186.2 innings, and he did pretty well, going 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA.
After the '06 season, the Royals made the stupid decision of signing Meche to a 5 year, 55 million dollar contract. But, after the first year of the contract, the Royals had appeared to make at least a decent deal. Meche had his best season, throwing a career-high 216 innings and going just 9-13 for the hapless Royals, but posting a 3.67 ERA, tying his career high for strikeouts (156), and walking just 62 batters for a great ratio of just 2.6 per 9 innings (he had a 4.0 career BB/9 ratio before '07). In '08, Meche did something few players can do: win 14 games on the Royals. He was the first one to win 14 games on the Royals since Paul Byrd in 2002. (Obviously Zach Greinke did it in his Cy Young season in '09 as well.) Meche went 14-11 with a 3.98 ERA and a career-high 183 K's in 34 starts and 210.1 IP.
Through June 17th, 2009, Meche seemed to be on pace for his best season. Through 14 starts he had a 3.31 ERA and 67 strikeouts compared to 31 walks in 84.1 IP. But, after his 132-pitch complete game shutout on June 16th, Meche went just 2-5 with an 8.46 ERA. A good pitcher never just collapses like that at age 30. It was the 132 pitches.
In 2010, Meche went just 0-5 with a 5.69 ERA and just 41 strikeouts versus 38 walks in 9 starts, 11 relief appearances, and 61.2 IP. He missed from May 25th to September 1st with his shoulder injury. His career was over at age 32 (his 32nd birthday was September 8th).
What's the message here? Two things: 1) you have to be somewhat careful with any pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery, and 2) no pitcher should be kept in for over 130 pitches except when ABSOLUTELY necessary. I'm not saying that pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery shouldn't throw 200 innings, but you have to let him work back up to a regular big league workload. Meche's career was sidetracked because the Mariners let him throw 186.1 innings right after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Then, after the Royals acquired him, they let him throw 216 innings, a jump of 30 innings from '06 to '07 and 50 IP over his average the previous two years. He was still 28 when the Royals got him, and even though they signed him to a big contract to be their ace, the Royals had to limit him somewhat to make sure that he could hold up all 5 years and still be effective. They didn't limit him at all, and not only was he not durable the past two years, but he couldn't even last the entirety of his contract. If I was the Royals I would have limited him to 200 innings in '07 and then let him pitch much a few more that that in '08 and around the same the rest of his deal. Again, they didn't and it cost them.
Let's go back to the trio above: Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Cliff Lee. We know all of them as innings eaters who often finish games. Halladay has thrown 130 or pitches in a game three times, one time each of the past three seasons. CC has throw over 130 pitches in a game just once in his career, during his wild card chase with the Brewers in '08. Cliff Lee has NEVER thrown 130 or more pitches in a game. Even for veterans, you can't throw pitch counts completely out the window. In non-must-win games, no pitcher should throw 130 or more pitches in a game, even if they're throwing a no-hitter (I'm talking to you, D-backs, about Edwin Jackson who you let throw a crazy 149 pitches in his 8-walk no-hitter).
We know that there are many young pitchers right now who could become the next Gil Meche by being overworked, especially after Tommy John surgery, and being forced to retire early. Teams, don't let that happen.
On June 16th, 2009, Gil Meche had one of the best starts of his career. Through 8 innings, he had allowed no runs, and just 4 hits while striking out 5 and walking just one. He had thrown 110 pitches. Instead of bringing in a reliever to pitch the 9th in a 5-0 game, Royals manager Trey Hillman kept Meche in their. Meche retired the side 1-2-3 to complete his complete-game shutout, but he used 22 pitches to do so, finishing with 132 pitches on the day.
Gil Meche has retired from baseball at the age of 32. He said that he retired because of a shoulder injury that would have required surgery. After that fateful day, June 16th, 2009, Meche went just 2-10 with a 6.86 ERA. He was never the same after throwing 132 pitches in that game.
All the young pitchers are protected. They have innings limits and pitch count limits. Maybe so should the veterans too, to some extent.
Not all pitchers are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, or Cliff Lee. A lot of pitchers are much more fragile. The Mariners and the Royals weren't careful at all with Meche.
Two years after making his major league debut with the Mariners in 1999, Meche didn't appear in any major league games in 2001 and 2002 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. In 2003, he pitched 186.1 innings (going 15-3 with a 4.59 ERA), but he posted just a 6.19 ERA after June 20th. He had surpassed his career high for innings in the majors (he had thrown 175.2 innings between the majors and minors in 1999) in that June 20th start which lowered his ERA to 2.89. Fine, Meche only surpassed his career high for innings by just 9.2 IP, but remember that he was just coming off of Tommy John surgery. I'm not saying that the Mariners should have limited him so much after already missing two years to the surgery, but they shouldn't have let him surpass his career high for innings pitched.
In 2004, the Mariners seemingly made an adjustment for Meche, allowing him to throw just 127.2 major league innings, but don't be fooled- he pitched 57 innings at Triple-A as well. (He actually posted a higher ERA, 5.05, at Triple-A than in the majors, 5.01.) Finally in 2005, he was limited to just 143.1 IP, but he still posted a 5.09 ERA. Despite his second-straight year with an ERA over 5.00, the Mariners stuck with him in the last year under their control in '06, allowing him to throw a career high 186.2 innings, and he did pretty well, going 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA.
After the '06 season, the Royals made the stupid decision of signing Meche to a 5 year, 55 million dollar contract. But, after the first year of the contract, the Royals had appeared to make at least a decent deal. Meche had his best season, throwing a career-high 216 innings and going just 9-13 for the hapless Royals, but posting a 3.67 ERA, tying his career high for strikeouts (156), and walking just 62 batters for a great ratio of just 2.6 per 9 innings (he had a 4.0 career BB/9 ratio before '07). In '08, Meche did something few players can do: win 14 games on the Royals. He was the first one to win 14 games on the Royals since Paul Byrd in 2002. (Obviously Zach Greinke did it in his Cy Young season in '09 as well.) Meche went 14-11 with a 3.98 ERA and a career-high 183 K's in 34 starts and 210.1 IP.
Through June 17th, 2009, Meche seemed to be on pace for his best season. Through 14 starts he had a 3.31 ERA and 67 strikeouts compared to 31 walks in 84.1 IP. But, after his 132-pitch complete game shutout on June 16th, Meche went just 2-5 with an 8.46 ERA. A good pitcher never just collapses like that at age 30. It was the 132 pitches.
In 2010, Meche went just 0-5 with a 5.69 ERA and just 41 strikeouts versus 38 walks in 9 starts, 11 relief appearances, and 61.2 IP. He missed from May 25th to September 1st with his shoulder injury. His career was over at age 32 (his 32nd birthday was September 8th).
What's the message here? Two things: 1) you have to be somewhat careful with any pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery, and 2) no pitcher should be kept in for over 130 pitches except when ABSOLUTELY necessary. I'm not saying that pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery shouldn't throw 200 innings, but you have to let him work back up to a regular big league workload. Meche's career was sidetracked because the Mariners let him throw 186.1 innings right after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Then, after the Royals acquired him, they let him throw 216 innings, a jump of 30 innings from '06 to '07 and 50 IP over his average the previous two years. He was still 28 when the Royals got him, and even though they signed him to a big contract to be their ace, the Royals had to limit him somewhat to make sure that he could hold up all 5 years and still be effective. They didn't limit him at all, and not only was he not durable the past two years, but he couldn't even last the entirety of his contract. If I was the Royals I would have limited him to 200 innings in '07 and then let him pitch much a few more that that in '08 and around the same the rest of his deal. Again, they didn't and it cost them.
Let's go back to the trio above: Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Cliff Lee. We know all of them as innings eaters who often finish games. Halladay has thrown 130 or pitches in a game three times, one time each of the past three seasons. CC has throw over 130 pitches in a game just once in his career, during his wild card chase with the Brewers in '08. Cliff Lee has NEVER thrown 130 or more pitches in a game. Even for veterans, you can't throw pitch counts completely out the window. In non-must-win games, no pitcher should throw 130 or more pitches in a game, even if they're throwing a no-hitter (I'm talking to you, D-backs, about Edwin Jackson who you let throw a crazy 149 pitches in his 8-walk no-hitter).
We know that there are many young pitchers right now who could become the next Gil Meche by being overworked, especially after Tommy John surgery, and being forced to retire early. Teams, don't let that happen.
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Greinke to Milwaukee
I am completely shocked. I didn't think the Yankees would get him, but when was the last time the Milwaukee Brewers made such a big trade? Anyway, let's review the trade. The trade is RHP Zack Greinke and SS Yuniesky Betancourt for SS Alcides Escobar, CF Lorenzo Cain, and RHP's Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi.
Greinke, after his dazzling 2009, did not put up great numbers in '10, going 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA and 181 K's in 33 starts and 220 IP. But, a closer look at his stats certainly shows you something interesting. After posting a 2.56 ERA in April (somehow going 0-2), he posted a 4.37 ERA from May until the end of July (although his record was 7-8). Every pitcher has bad stretches, and a 4.37 ERA isn't even that bad. Greinke then proceeded to post a 3.16 ERA in August, improving his ERA to 3.81. But then, he posted a 5.92 ERA in September. Still, he posted a 2-3 record that month. How? Well, he won the 2 games he pitched against teams with winning records, and posted 3 losses and a no-decision in his other starts. He just got bored. Being on the Royals can do that to you. Milwaukee is getting an amazing pitcher who will tear up the National League. You might even be able to make an argument that Milwaukee's top 4 in their rotation (Greinke, Yovani Gollardo, Shaun Marcum, and Randy Wolf) if the second best top 4 in the NL behind you-know-who, the South Beach of starting pitching, Philadelphia. It would not surprise me or anyone if Greinke finishes at least a solid third in the Cy Young award voting in the NL behind if anyone, Halladay and Lee.
Everyone likes Yuniesky Betancourt, right? Of course not. Betancourt is one of those players who starts on bad teams. Good thing the Brewers have Craig Counsell, right? (They also have a SS prospect named Luis Cruz who did well at Triple-A last year.) They better not start Betancourt, who has played 9 games at 2nd base during his career. So, how bad is Betancourt? At first glance, not so bad. He hit .259 in '10 with 29 doubles, 16 homers, and 78 RBI. Isn't that pretty good? Well, not really when you post a .288 OBP. His career high in OBP is .310. His career OBP is under .300 (.296). You just can't have a below-.300 OBP and expect to be a regular on a good team. The thing is though, how did he manage to drive in 78 run if he's such a bad player. The answer: pure luck. He hit .257 with runners in scoring position on the Royals! He just got lucky and had 152 at-bats in those situations. He had just 39 hits, but drove in 61 runs. The Brewers will certainly not give him that many at-bats (he had 588 overall in '10). Betancourt's 78 RBI were certainly a fluke that he will not replicate in 2011, even if he were to be given enough at-bats. And that's just his hitting! He posted a .974 Fld% at SS in '10, committing 18 errors (3 times as many as Derek Jeter). The league average Fld% at SS was .973. Even though he did show somewhat better range than Jeter, that's just bad. Betancourt is a bad player. The Royals are lucky to get rid of him.
Alcides Escobar was supposed to be the Brewers' shortstop for a long time. Well, that certainly didn't happen. Escobar appeared to have such a promising future after hitting .306, .328, and a .298 in the minors '07, '08, and '09 while stealing 98 bases. He got his chance in the majors in '10, but he just wasn't good enough. He hit .325 with 14 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, just 10 stolen bases, and, get this, the same OBP as Yuniesky Betancourt had in '10, .288. That's bad. I did withhold the fact that he did have 10 triples, third in the NL. Still, he certainly was a huge disappointment. And don't get me started on his defense. He posted a .967 Fld% at SS (the NL average was .971), with Derek Jeter-esque range (I mean that in a bad way). The Royals better hope and pray that Escobar develops into the player that his minor league stats 'said' he was going to be.
Cain had an exceptional year between the minors and majors in '10. He hit .317 in 84 minor league games with 11 doubles, 3 homers, 27 RBI, 9 triples, 27 SB, and a .402 OBP. He then hit .306 in the majors with 11 doubles, 1 homer, 13 RBI, 1 triple, 7 SB, and a .348 OBP in 43 major league games. He posted a .972 Fld% in CF in the minors, with 4 outfield assists, while posting a .980 Fld% with 2 assists in the majors. Cain's outfield assists count seems to be tied with his fielding percentage: in four minor league seasons, Cain posted a fielding percentage of .990 or better, but had no more than 3 outfield assists in any of those seasons. In the four minor league seasons besides '10 that Cain posted an ERA under .990 , Cain had no fewer than 8 outfield assists, including a ridiculous 15 outfield assists in 2006 (he did post just a .960 Fld% that season). Cain has a lot of potential and could be a fixture in the Royals outfield for a long time.
As if I haven't talking about enough misfits in this post, let me talk about Jeremy Jeffress. He has been suspended not once, but twice, for using marijuana. Simply put, that's not good. But, the righty reliever did well in both the minors and majors, posting a 2.23 ERA and 4 saves in 23 minor league appearances and a 2.70 ERA in 10 appearances for the Brewers. He could certainly be the next Royals closer after Joakim Soria leaves. They just need to keep him out of trouble.
Odorizzi is a righy starter that unlike the other players in this deal, has never played above Short Season-A ball. But, he did go 7-3 in '10 with a 3.43 ERA and 135 K's (10.1 K/9) in 20 starts, 3 relief appearances, and 120.2 IP at SS-A Wisconsin. He certainly has potential, and could be 'the next Greinke in a couple of years' (what the Royals stated they wanted) if he pans out.
This is an interesting trade for the Royals. Potentially, they could get four star players from this trade. But, there's a good chance that Escobar and Odorizzi don't pan out. It's a calculated gamble, and they better hope they're right. This is a great trade for the Brewers. For the prospects gave up, they all had reasons to trade them. Escobar was a disappointment, and they have Luis Cruz. For Cain, they have Carlos Gomez. Jeffress certainly has his problems, and you never know with Odorizzi, so it may have been worth it to trade him while his value was high. In return for these prospects, the Brewers got a star pitcher to cement their pitching staff in Greinke and will now be contenders in the NL Central and will certainly have an opportunity to win it.
Greinke, after his dazzling 2009, did not put up great numbers in '10, going 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA and 181 K's in 33 starts and 220 IP. But, a closer look at his stats certainly shows you something interesting. After posting a 2.56 ERA in April (somehow going 0-2), he posted a 4.37 ERA from May until the end of July (although his record was 7-8). Every pitcher has bad stretches, and a 4.37 ERA isn't even that bad. Greinke then proceeded to post a 3.16 ERA in August, improving his ERA to 3.81. But then, he posted a 5.92 ERA in September. Still, he posted a 2-3 record that month. How? Well, he won the 2 games he pitched against teams with winning records, and posted 3 losses and a no-decision in his other starts. He just got bored. Being on the Royals can do that to you. Milwaukee is getting an amazing pitcher who will tear up the National League. You might even be able to make an argument that Milwaukee's top 4 in their rotation (Greinke, Yovani Gollardo, Shaun Marcum, and Randy Wolf) if the second best top 4 in the NL behind you-know-who, the South Beach of starting pitching, Philadelphia. It would not surprise me or anyone if Greinke finishes at least a solid third in the Cy Young award voting in the NL behind if anyone, Halladay and Lee.
Everyone likes Yuniesky Betancourt, right? Of course not. Betancourt is one of those players who starts on bad teams. Good thing the Brewers have Craig Counsell, right? (They also have a SS prospect named Luis Cruz who did well at Triple-A last year.) They better not start Betancourt, who has played 9 games at 2nd base during his career. So, how bad is Betancourt? At first glance, not so bad. He hit .259 in '10 with 29 doubles, 16 homers, and 78 RBI. Isn't that pretty good? Well, not really when you post a .288 OBP. His career high in OBP is .310. His career OBP is under .300 (.296). You just can't have a below-.300 OBP and expect to be a regular on a good team. The thing is though, how did he manage to drive in 78 run if he's such a bad player. The answer: pure luck. He hit .257 with runners in scoring position on the Royals! He just got lucky and had 152 at-bats in those situations. He had just 39 hits, but drove in 61 runs. The Brewers will certainly not give him that many at-bats (he had 588 overall in '10). Betancourt's 78 RBI were certainly a fluke that he will not replicate in 2011, even if he were to be given enough at-bats. And that's just his hitting! He posted a .974 Fld% at SS in '10, committing 18 errors (3 times as many as Derek Jeter). The league average Fld% at SS was .973. Even though he did show somewhat better range than Jeter, that's just bad. Betancourt is a bad player. The Royals are lucky to get rid of him.
Alcides Escobar was supposed to be the Brewers' shortstop for a long time. Well, that certainly didn't happen. Escobar appeared to have such a promising future after hitting .306, .328, and a .298 in the minors '07, '08, and '09 while stealing 98 bases. He got his chance in the majors in '10, but he just wasn't good enough. He hit .325 with 14 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, just 10 stolen bases, and, get this, the same OBP as Yuniesky Betancourt had in '10, .288. That's bad. I did withhold the fact that he did have 10 triples, third in the NL. Still, he certainly was a huge disappointment. And don't get me started on his defense. He posted a .967 Fld% at SS (the NL average was .971), with Derek Jeter-esque range (I mean that in a bad way). The Royals better hope and pray that Escobar develops into the player that his minor league stats 'said' he was going to be.
Cain had an exceptional year between the minors and majors in '10. He hit .317 in 84 minor league games with 11 doubles, 3 homers, 27 RBI, 9 triples, 27 SB, and a .402 OBP. He then hit .306 in the majors with 11 doubles, 1 homer, 13 RBI, 1 triple, 7 SB, and a .348 OBP in 43 major league games. He posted a .972 Fld% in CF in the minors, with 4 outfield assists, while posting a .980 Fld% with 2 assists in the majors. Cain's outfield assists count seems to be tied with his fielding percentage: in four minor league seasons, Cain posted a fielding percentage of .990 or better, but had no more than 3 outfield assists in any of those seasons. In the four minor league seasons besides '10 that Cain posted an ERA under .990 , Cain had no fewer than 8 outfield assists, including a ridiculous 15 outfield assists in 2006 (he did post just a .960 Fld% that season). Cain has a lot of potential and could be a fixture in the Royals outfield for a long time.
As if I haven't talking about enough misfits in this post, let me talk about Jeremy Jeffress. He has been suspended not once, but twice, for using marijuana. Simply put, that's not good. But, the righty reliever did well in both the minors and majors, posting a 2.23 ERA and 4 saves in 23 minor league appearances and a 2.70 ERA in 10 appearances for the Brewers. He could certainly be the next Royals closer after Joakim Soria leaves. They just need to keep him out of trouble.
Odorizzi is a righy starter that unlike the other players in this deal, has never played above Short Season-A ball. But, he did go 7-3 in '10 with a 3.43 ERA and 135 K's (10.1 K/9) in 20 starts, 3 relief appearances, and 120.2 IP at SS-A Wisconsin. He certainly has potential, and could be 'the next Greinke in a couple of years' (what the Royals stated they wanted) if he pans out.
This is an interesting trade for the Royals. Potentially, they could get four star players from this trade. But, there's a good chance that Escobar and Odorizzi don't pan out. It's a calculated gamble, and they better hope they're right. This is a great trade for the Brewers. For the prospects gave up, they all had reasons to trade them. Escobar was a disappointment, and they have Luis Cruz. For Cain, they have Carlos Gomez. Jeffress certainly has his problems, and you never know with Odorizzi, so it may have been worth it to trade him while his value was high. In return for these prospects, the Brewers got a star pitcher to cement their pitching staff in Greinke and will now be contenders in the NL Central and will certainly have an opportunity to win it.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
DeJesus to the A's
The Oakland Athletics have acquired OF David DeJesus from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for RHP Vin Mazzaro and LHP Justin Marks.
DeJesus, who will turn 31 on December 20th, had a nice but injury shortened season for the Royals in 2010, hitting .318 with 23 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, and a .384 OBP in 91 games. He injured his thumb during a 10-4 loss to the Yankees on June 22nd and had to undergo surgery. DeJesus had his best season in '08, when he hit .307 with 25 doubles, 12 homers, 73 RBI, 11 steals, and a .366 OBP in 135 games. He hit .281 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 71 RBI, 9 triples, and a .347 OBP in 144 games. Defensively, DeJesus has not made an error since '08. His 15.3 Ultimate Zone Rating was second in the majors in '09 to Carl Crawford, but was negative 0.1 in '10. He is not a great player, but he can be a solid contributor on a good team.
Mazzaro has been very inconsistent both at the major league and minor league levels. Mazzaro, a 3rd round pick, went 9-9 at Low-A his first pro season in '06, but posted a 5.05 ERA. He then went 9-12 with a 5.33 ERA at High-A in '07. But then, Mazzaro had an incredible season in '08, 15-6 with a 2.74 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. 2-2 with a 2.38 ERA in 9 starts and a relief appearance in '09 at Triple-A, Mazzaro was promoted to the majors where he went 4-9 with a 5.32 ERA in 17 starts. In '10, Mazzaro started out at Triple-A again, where he went 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 6 starts and a relief appearance, before being recalled to the majors. Mazzaro went 6-8 for the A's in '10, with a 4.27 ERA in 18 starts and 6 relief appearances. He was 6-3 with a 3.45 ERA on June 24th, but went just 0-6 with a 5.37 ERA the rest of the season. Keep in mind that Mazzaro isn't your average 24 year old fireballer. Mazzaro has posted just a 6.8 K/9 in the minors and a 5.8 K/9 in the majors. That wouldn't be that bad, but he doesn't have great control either. He has a 3.7 career BB/9, and his career K/BB ratio is just 1.55. If the Royals can somehow fix Mazzaro's control, he could be a good back of the rotation starter.
Marks is a lefty strikeout machine, but at least to this point in his career, he has not been effective. A 2009 3rd round pick, Marks had the worst pro debut I've ever seen that same season, pitching in 1 game at Rookie ball, a start, and giving up 6 runs in 0.0 IP for an infinity ERA. Yeah, infinity. Well, from there Marks could only be better. Not that he was that good in '10- he went 6-13 with a 4.87 ERA in 24 starts and a relief appearance between Low-A and High-A. The only reasons Marks has any value is because he struck out 136 batters in 129.1 IP in '10, good for a 9.5 K/9, and he posted a 2.78 K/BB ratio. If the Royals can somehow fix him, he could be a great pitcher. How many lefty starters strike out over a batter per inning?
The Royals are in a rebuilding mode, and had no need for DeJesus. They decided to trade him for 2 pitchers that need help, but certainly have potentially. The Royals are taking the gamble that Mazzaro and Marks will pan out. But, they wouldn't have done this trade if they didn't think they could fix them.
DeJesus, who will turn 31 on December 20th, had a nice but injury shortened season for the Royals in 2010, hitting .318 with 23 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, and a .384 OBP in 91 games. He injured his thumb during a 10-4 loss to the Yankees on June 22nd and had to undergo surgery. DeJesus had his best season in '08, when he hit .307 with 25 doubles, 12 homers, 73 RBI, 11 steals, and a .366 OBP in 135 games. He hit .281 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 71 RBI, 9 triples, and a .347 OBP in 144 games. Defensively, DeJesus has not made an error since '08. His 15.3 Ultimate Zone Rating was second in the majors in '09 to Carl Crawford, but was negative 0.1 in '10. He is not a great player, but he can be a solid contributor on a good team.
Mazzaro has been very inconsistent both at the major league and minor league levels. Mazzaro, a 3rd round pick, went 9-9 at Low-A his first pro season in '06, but posted a 5.05 ERA. He then went 9-12 with a 5.33 ERA at High-A in '07. But then, Mazzaro had an incredible season in '08, 15-6 with a 2.74 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. 2-2 with a 2.38 ERA in 9 starts and a relief appearance in '09 at Triple-A, Mazzaro was promoted to the majors where he went 4-9 with a 5.32 ERA in 17 starts. In '10, Mazzaro started out at Triple-A again, where he went 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 6 starts and a relief appearance, before being recalled to the majors. Mazzaro went 6-8 for the A's in '10, with a 4.27 ERA in 18 starts and 6 relief appearances. He was 6-3 with a 3.45 ERA on June 24th, but went just 0-6 with a 5.37 ERA the rest of the season. Keep in mind that Mazzaro isn't your average 24 year old fireballer. Mazzaro has posted just a 6.8 K/9 in the minors and a 5.8 K/9 in the majors. That wouldn't be that bad, but he doesn't have great control either. He has a 3.7 career BB/9, and his career K/BB ratio is just 1.55. If the Royals can somehow fix Mazzaro's control, he could be a good back of the rotation starter.
Marks is a lefty strikeout machine, but at least to this point in his career, he has not been effective. A 2009 3rd round pick, Marks had the worst pro debut I've ever seen that same season, pitching in 1 game at Rookie ball, a start, and giving up 6 runs in 0.0 IP for an infinity ERA. Yeah, infinity. Well, from there Marks could only be better. Not that he was that good in '10- he went 6-13 with a 4.87 ERA in 24 starts and a relief appearance between Low-A and High-A. The only reasons Marks has any value is because he struck out 136 batters in 129.1 IP in '10, good for a 9.5 K/9, and he posted a 2.78 K/BB ratio. If the Royals can somehow fix him, he could be a great pitcher. How many lefty starters strike out over a batter per inning?
The Royals are in a rebuilding mode, and had no need for DeJesus. They decided to trade him for 2 pitchers that need help, but certainly have potentially. The Royals are taking the gamble that Mazzaro and Marks will pan out. But, they wouldn't have done this trade if they didn't think they could fix them.
Monday, May 24, 2010
The glory years of Jose Lima
Jose Lima, who passed away at age 37 yesterday from a heart attack, mostly wasn't anything special during his career. But, for two years he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.
During his career, Lima appeared to be a bad pitcher. In his career, he was 89-102 with a 5.26 ERA. But, from 1998 to 1999, he had 2 very good years. In 1998, he burst on to the scene after 2 sub-par years as a reliever, in 1996 for the Tigers and 1997 for the Astros. But, in 1998 with the Astros, he was converted into a starter and had a great year, going 16-8 with a 3.70 ERA and 169 K's in 33 starts and 233.1 IP. He averaged over 7 innings per start, striking out 6.5 batters per 9 innings and walking just 1.2. His 5.28 K/BB ratio was the best in the NL. He didn't get any Cy Young votes that year, but no one on the list posted an ERA over 2.90. (Tom Glavine won the 1998 NL Cy Young award, and Trevor Hoffman finished 2nd.)
In 1999, Lima had a great first half, going 13-4 with a 3.23 ERA and 96 K's in 19 starts and 139.1 IP and was named to the NL all-star team. He pitched 1 inning in the all-star game, giving up no runs on just 1 hit. His 2nd half wasn't as good as he went 8-6 with a 4.04 ERA and 91 K's in 16 starts and 107 IP. Still, overall on the year, Lima went 21-10 with a 3.58 ERA and 187 K's in 35 starts and 246.1 IP. He finished 4th in the NL Cy Young voting to Randy Johnson, Mike Hampton, and Kevin Millwood. It was an incredible year for him. He was so good that his salary was doubled in 2000 to over 5 million dollars. But, he never lived up to that contract.
In 2000 he went just 7-16 with a 6.65 ERA. He continued to struggle in '01 and '02, going 10-18 between the 2 years with a 6.18 ERA. He showed some flashes of his former glory in '03, going 8-3 with a 4.91 ERA. In '04, Lima finally put it back together. He went 13-5 with a 4.07 ERA and 93 K's in 24 starts, 12 relief appearances, and 170.1 IP. It wasn't all-star quality, but it appeared he could at least be a decent pitcher. But, he finished up his MLB career with 5-16 with a 6.99 ERA with the Royals in '05, and an 0-4 record and a 9.87 ERA with the Mets in '06. After toiling in the minors in '07 and '08, he was done.
Jose Lima was a great pitcher, but just for a brief time. Every other season of his career besides 1, he was a bad pitcher. But, for those 2 years, he was a great pitcher, one of the best in the NL.
(Lima reportedly was on the list of the 103 names who tested positive for steroids in '03. Did he juice and that was the reason he was so good for just 2 years? I can't say for sure, but that definitely was a possibility.)
During his career, Lima appeared to be a bad pitcher. In his career, he was 89-102 with a 5.26 ERA. But, from 1998 to 1999, he had 2 very good years. In 1998, he burst on to the scene after 2 sub-par years as a reliever, in 1996 for the Tigers and 1997 for the Astros. But, in 1998 with the Astros, he was converted into a starter and had a great year, going 16-8 with a 3.70 ERA and 169 K's in 33 starts and 233.1 IP. He averaged over 7 innings per start, striking out 6.5 batters per 9 innings and walking just 1.2. His 5.28 K/BB ratio was the best in the NL. He didn't get any Cy Young votes that year, but no one on the list posted an ERA over 2.90. (Tom Glavine won the 1998 NL Cy Young award, and Trevor Hoffman finished 2nd.)
In 1999, Lima had a great first half, going 13-4 with a 3.23 ERA and 96 K's in 19 starts and 139.1 IP and was named to the NL all-star team. He pitched 1 inning in the all-star game, giving up no runs on just 1 hit. His 2nd half wasn't as good as he went 8-6 with a 4.04 ERA and 91 K's in 16 starts and 107 IP. Still, overall on the year, Lima went 21-10 with a 3.58 ERA and 187 K's in 35 starts and 246.1 IP. He finished 4th in the NL Cy Young voting to Randy Johnson, Mike Hampton, and Kevin Millwood. It was an incredible year for him. He was so good that his salary was doubled in 2000 to over 5 million dollars. But, he never lived up to that contract.
In 2000 he went just 7-16 with a 6.65 ERA. He continued to struggle in '01 and '02, going 10-18 between the 2 years with a 6.18 ERA. He showed some flashes of his former glory in '03, going 8-3 with a 4.91 ERA. In '04, Lima finally put it back together. He went 13-5 with a 4.07 ERA and 93 K's in 24 starts, 12 relief appearances, and 170.1 IP. It wasn't all-star quality, but it appeared he could at least be a decent pitcher. But, he finished up his MLB career with 5-16 with a 6.99 ERA with the Royals in '05, and an 0-4 record and a 9.87 ERA with the Mets in '06. After toiling in the minors in '07 and '08, he was done.
Jose Lima was a great pitcher, but just for a brief time. Every other season of his career besides 1, he was a bad pitcher. But, for those 2 years, he was a great pitcher, one of the best in the NL.
(Lima reportedly was on the list of the 103 names who tested positive for steroids in '03. Did he juice and that was the reason he was so good for just 2 years? I can't say for sure, but that definitely was a possibility.)
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