Friday, April 29, 2011
Can Montero play left field?
Well, you have to at least give a look to the left field and right field positions. Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher both had nice games Thursday, but they're still hitting .169/.229/.385 and .237/.351/.303 respectively. Gardner has 7 extra-base hits, 3 homers, and driven in 6 runs, but he's been successful on just 4 of 7 stolen base attempts, while Swisher has just 3 extra base hits, 1 homer, although he has driven in 12 runs. Couldn't Montero be better than either of them right now? Who in the world wouldn't think that Montero could at least put up at least a .275/.340/.400 line in the majors right now? Gardner and Swisher are nice players, but how could you leave one of the best hitters in professional baseball stranded at Triple-A? Brian Cashman could probably trade either Gardner or Swisher within a couple of days. Why won't he?
First of all, there's the obvious question of defense. Gardner is the best defensive left fielder in baseball, and replacing him with Montero would be an enormous defensive downgrade. Swisher has worked hard defensively, and he had a positive UZR in 2010 (and so far in 2011). Even replacing Swisher with Montero would be a big downgrade defensively. Or would it? Earlier in Yankee history, the Yankees had another case where they had two good catchers. From the mid-1950's to the mid-1960's, the Yankees had both Yogi Berra and Elston Howard. So what did they do? They had both Berra and Howard play some left field and right field. Berra played 260 career games in the outfield while Howard played 265. And while Berra and Howard weren't Gold Glove-caliber defensively, they certainly were good enough. Berra posted a .972 Fld% and a 2.08 RF/9 in 149 career games in left field. The league averages were a .973 Fld% and a 2.03 RF/9. He certainly was an average fielder in left. In 166 games in right, Berra wasn't as good, posting just a .966 Fld% and a 1.65 RF/9 compared to the league averages of .974 and 1.97, but even in that case, he survived defensively. Howard was pretty solid in 228 games in left, posting a .982 Fld% and a 1.98 RF/9 compared to the league averages of .979 and 2.13. (Keep in mind that Berra and Howard did not play the outfield in all the same seasons.) Howard played just 42 games in right, but he actually was a plus defender, posting a .987 Fld% and a 2.33 RF/9 compared to the league average compared to the league averages of .979 and 1.99. Could Montero put up similar numbers?
Even if he could, Montero would have to start learning the new position, and that could take away from his focus on hitting, which wouldn't be good for him in the long run. Also, Gardner and Swisher play important roles for the Yankees. Gardner is the Yankees' only legitimate 30-stolen base threat (although if he gets on base, he could steal 50), and Swisher is great in the clubhouse, so the Yankees shouldn't panic and hinder Montero's development. Unless Posada or Martin gets hurt, the Yankees should allow Montero to keep working defensively at catcher in Triple-A until September, when he'll get his first cup of coffee in the big leagues. Then, next year, he'll be ready to take over at DH and backup catcher when Posada retires and use his bat to the best of his ability. Yankee fans, don't panic about the struggles of Gardner and Swisher.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Comparing the 1996 and 2009 Yankee championship teams
C: Joe Girardi vs. Jorge Posada
Before you say anything, let's compare the salaries: 2.325 million dollars vs. 13.1 million dollars. Sure, Girardi was signed as a free agent, but to be a role player. Also, the players themselves couldn't be more different. Girardi hit .294 with 22 doubles, 2 homers, 45 RBI, 13 SB, and a .346 OBP in 124 games. He also played well defensively, posting a .996 Fld% at catcher, and a 25% CS%. Posada in contrast, hit .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, 1 SB (had to point that out), and a .363 OBP in 111 games. He posted just a .990 Fld%, although he did post a 28% CS%. Girardi was a scrappy player who got on base and played well defensively. Posada was a power hitter who had trouble just stopping errant pitches (Girardi had 10 passed balls compared to Posada's 31). Going by WAR, Posada had a much better season. But, was he worth almost 11 million dollars more? Either way, both players played important roles for their teams.
1B: Tino Martinez vs. Mark Teixeira
Let's look at the salaries again. 2.3 million dollars for Tino compared to 20.625 million dollars for Teix. Tino and Teix was much more similar than you would think based on their salaries. Tino hit .292 with 28 doubles, 25 homers, 117 RBI, 82 runs, and a .364 OBP in 155 games. Teix hit that same .292 with 43 doubles, 39 homers, 122 RBI, 103 runs, and a .383 OBP in 156 games. Tino posted a .996 Fld% at 1B compared to Teixeira's .997. First base might be the one position where both teams were very similar. Teixeira was a better player, but not by that much. Obviously, Teix isn't worth over 18 million dollars more than Tino. Both teams filled a very similar role for their respective teams- a power-hitting first baseman in the middle of the lineup who also plays well defensively.
2B: Mariano Duncan vs. Robinson Cano
The salary gap here isn't that far: 845,000 dollars for Duncan compared to 6 million dollars for Cano. They certainly had very different seasons. Duncan hit .340 with 34 doubles, 8 homers, 56 RBI, and just a .352 OBP (9 walks all year) in 109 games.Cano hit .320 with 48 doubles, 25 homers, 85 RBI, 103 runs, and a .352 OBP (30 walks) in 161 games. Defensively, Cano was far superior, posting a .984 Fld% at Duncan's .973. Duncan was an incredible hitter for average that had few other skills, while Cano was an amazing hitter who hit for average and power in addition to being a Gold Glover defensively. Cano was significantly better, but Duncan filled a nice niche for the 1996 team.
3B: Wade Boggs vs. Alex Rodriguez
2.05 million dollars versus 33 million. Oh my gosh. Boggs and A-rod are as different as night and day. Boggs hit .311 with 29 doubles, 2 homers, 41 RBI, 80 runs, 1 SB, and a .389 OBP in 132 games. A-rod hit .286 with 17 doubles, 30 homers, 100 RBI, 78 runs, 14 SB, and a .402 OBP in 124 games. Boggs posted a .974 Fld% at third base compared to .967 by A-rod. Boggs is a Hall of Famer because he was an amazing pure hitter. A-rod was once a good pure hitter (215 hits in 1996 and 213 in 1998), but is now known strictly as a power hitter. Boggs was a very good role player at that point in his career, while A-rod was still a superstar when he came back from injury. They contributed very different aspects to their teams; Boggs was a top-of-the-lineup kind of player who was a table-setter for the big hitters. A-rod, obviously, is a big hitter.
SS: Derek Jeter vs. Derek Jeter
The salary comparison isn't fair- Jeter was a rookie in '96 so of course he didn't a lot of money! He made just 160 thousand dollars compared to 21.6 million in 2009. Let's compare Jeter's seasons. He certainly had two Jeterian seasons. He hit .314 with 25 doubles, 10 homers, 78 RBI, 104 runs, 183 hits, 14 SB, and a .370 OBP in 157 games on his way to the AL Rookie of the Year. Like most rookie shortstops, he did struggle defensively, posting a .969 Fld% (although his range was must better than it is now). In '09, he also had a great season, hitting .334 with 27 doubles, 18 homers, 66 RBI, 107 runs, 212 hits, 30 SB, and a .406 OBP in 153 games. He posted a .986 Fld%. Jeter was a great player both back then and in '09 (maybe not really anymore).
LF: Gerald Williams/Tim Raines vs. Johnny Damon
Looking at the salaries, Damon easily made more than Williams and Raines combined. Raines made 2.1 million dollars and Williams made '200 thousand while Damon made 13 million. Williams had a below-average season, hitting .270 with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, 7 SB, and just a .319 OBP while posting just a .978 Fld% in LF, which was just slightly below league average, but you would expect more from a player who played most of his career in centerfield. To make things worse, he only had 1 assist. He was traded to the Brewers in August (through waivers). Raines meanwhile, was sidelined most of the year by a hamstring tear, but came back after Williams was traded. He did well, hitting .284 with 10 doubles, 9 homers, 33 RBI, 45 runs, and a .383 OBP in 59 games. He also posted an above average .988 Fld% in LF, with 3 assists. In 2009, Damon had a great season offensively, hitting .282 with 36 doubles, 24 homers, 82 RBI, 107 runs, 12 SB, and a .365 OBP in 143 games. But, he posted an astronomically below average .978 Fld% in LF (league average was .987). This guy was playing centerfield the year before! Anyway, Damon was certainly better than Gim Waines (Williams + Raines). But again, was he worth 10 million dollars more?
CF: Bernie Williams vs. Melky Cabrera
In terms of salaries, Bernie made 3 million dollars to Melky's 1.4 million. Bernie was certainly double as good as Melky. He hit .305 with 26 doubles, 29 homers, 102 RBI, 108 runs, 17 SB, and a .391 OBP in 143 games. He did post just a .986 Fld% in centerfield, which was below average, but he had 10 outfield assists, third in the league. He had an outstanding season. Not that Melky was bad at all. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .990 Fld% in the outfield, including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF, but he posted just 3 assists. In a battle of arbitration-eligible players (Bernie won in a hearing), Bernie was certainly a far superior player, although Melky filled an important role for the 2009 Yankees.
RF: Paul O'Neill vs. Nick Swisher
O'Neill and Swisher happened to make nearly the same amount of money, with O'Neill earning 5.3 million dollars and Swish earning 5.4. Both players had good seasons. O'Neill hit .302 with 35 doubles, 19 homers, 91 RBI, 89 runs, and a .411 OBP in 150 games. Swish hit .249 with 35 doubles, 29 homers, 82 RBI, 84 runs, and a .371 OBP in 150 games. O'Neill was superb defensively, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld% at RF with 7 assists, while Swish was still OK at .983 with 7 assists as well. They gave similar contributions to their teams (O'Neill was better), so they certainly deserved similar salaries.
DH: Ruben Sierra/Darryl Strawberry/Cecil Fielder vs. Hideki Matsui
The three headed monster at DH made a total of 6.5 million dollars, while Matsui made double that, 13 million dollars. Ruben Sierra was the DH for the '96 Yankees until July. But, he performed so poorly (.258 BA, .327 OBP, 11 homers in 96 games), that the Yankees traded him for Cecil Fielder at the deadline, and acquired Darryl Strawbery. (Fielder was actually in the middle of his last monster season, as he would go on to hit 39 homers and drive in 119 runs.) Decil Fieldberry hit 24 homers in a combined 116 games, hitting .261. (Darryl played a bit in the outfield and Fielder played some first base). All 3 players combined hit .260 with 35 homers and 125 RBI in 212 games. Matsui himself hit .274 with 28 homers and 90 RBI in 142 games. Advantage 2009. Might as well pay double for some stability rather than RubenDecil Sierra-Fieldberry. (Thank you BenJarvus Green-Ellis.)
Rotation:
The 1996 Yankees had a rotation of Andy Pettitte (21-8, 3.87 ERA), Kenny Rodgers (12-8, 4.68), Dwight Gooden (11-7, 5.01), Jimmy Key (12-11, 4.68), David Cone, who missed much of the year with an aneurysm (7-2, 2.88), and Ramiro Mendoza, who replaced him (4-5, 6.79). They earned a total of 11.467 million dollars. The 2009 Yankee rotation consisted of CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37), AJ Burnett (13-9, 4.04), Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16), Joba Chamberlain (9-6, 4.75), and Chien-Ming Wang/Sergio Mitre/Chad Gaudin (combined 6-9, 6.63, although Gaudin went 2-0, 3.43). They made 42 million, 718 thousand, 289 dollars. That's almost 4 times as much as '96. But their ERA was better, 4.40 compared to 4.56, but not THAT much better!
Closer: John Wetteland vs. Mariano Rivera
There's no comparison. Rivera earned so much more (15 million dollars to 4 million), but he pitched much better. He posted a 1.76 ERA and 44 saves compared to Wetteland's still great 2.83 ERA and 43 saves. Rivera isn't 11 million dollars better, but he certainly was (and is at least arguably) the best closer in baseball.
I couldn't compare everybody, but these are the cores of those teams. Salaries are certainly different now from then, so the salary comparison is not really fair. Still, the 2009 Yankees had five times the payroll of '96. But, they were both built off of free agents with some amount homegrown talent mixed in. That's the Yankee formula now, and it won't change anytime soon. The Yankees, even with their great talent in the minors right now, do not have a homegrown dynasty coming. No matter how great the prospects are, only the very best will make it, and the rest of the roster will be made up of players, superstars, and some role players, acquired via free agency and trades. Many of the second-best prospects might have great careers with other teams, but it just won't work out for them with the Yankees. Even after A-rod's, Teixeira's, and CC's contracts expire, we all know there will be new big contracts handed out. If they do their moves right, we'll see another dynasty coming soon.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Crawford to Boston
First, let's look at this deal from Boston's standpoint. They're getting one of the best outfielders in baseball. Crawford had a ridiculous season in '10, hitting .307 with 30 doubles, 19 homers, 90 RBI, 13 triples, 110 runs, 184 hits, 47 SB (10 CS), and a .356 in 154 games for the Rays. His 13 triples led the league, while his 47 stolen bases were third, and his .307 BA was 9th. To put his stats in perspective, he had the same BA as Ryan Zimmerman, 1 less homer than Victor Martinez, as many stolen bases as Brett Gardner (1 more CS than him), and 1 less run than Miguel Cabrera (and Derek Jeter). He also posted a .994 Fld% in LF with 7 outfield assists, good enough to win a Gold Glove. He's just an amazing player, and he will be worth every penny of the 142 million.
How about Ellsbury though? Is Crawford that much better than him? Well, first of all, Ellsbury couldn't stay healthy in '10. That's obviously a problem. Even ignoring the injuries, let's look at his 2009, his best season. He hit .301 with 27 doubles, 8 homers, 60 RBI, 10 triples, 94 runs, 188 hits, 70 SB (12 CS), and a .355 OBP in 153 games. But, the more advanced metrics say that Ellsbury played very badly defensively in centerfield that season. More notable to me is his -9.7 UZR (9.7 runs below average Ultimate Zone Rating). He had a 21.3 UZR in '08, the year before. Crawford by the way, had an 18.5 UZR in '10. (Gardner posted a 21.9 UZR to lead all AL left fielders in '10.) Ellsbury just wasn't that great of a player for Boston. But, is he so bad to warrant the Red Sox paying Crawford about 18 million dollars more than Ellsbury will make in '10? No. Good job by the Red Sox to sign Crawford, but from an economic standpoint at least, it wasn't worth it to sign Crawford to replace Ellsbury for so much more money. The way that the Red Sox could resolve that would be to trade Mike Cameron. Of course, no other would team pay an outfielder that will be 38 in a month and who was hurt in '10 and has a .250 career batting average eight million dollars (he was a TERRIBLE signing). So, the Red Sox are going to be forced to trade Ellsbury.
Now, let's look at it from a Yankee standpoint. My first reaction to the signing was "Oh no, the Red Sox signed Crawford!". My second reaction was a very different one. The Red Sox signing Crawford isn't a good thing for the Yankees, but it isn't so bad for two reasons: 1) the Yankees can focus all their energies on signing Cliff Lee, knowing that they don't have Crawford as a backup plan (they just offered Lee a 7 year deal); and 2) both Gardner and Nick Swisher will be back in 2011.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Yankees acquire former first round pick Cody Johnson
In '08, Johnson was promoted to Low-A (skipping Short Season-A), and he did pretty well, hitting just .252 in 127 games, with but with 26 doubles, 26 homers, 89 RBI, and 8 SB, although he posted just a .307 OBP. He even made strides defensively, posting a .946 Fld% while still posting 5 assists. The one problem for Johnson was strikeouts- he struck out 177 times, which would have led the AL in '10. Johnson struck out 180 times in '09, but had a better season, hitting .242 with 18 doubles, 32 homers, 87 RBI, 10 SB, and a vastly improved .345 OBP in 122 games at High-A. He was briefly promoted to Double-A, where he got just 4 hits in 22 AB for a .182 BA, but he made the most of them, driving in 3 runs. He also improved even more defensively, posting a .961 Fld% in 88 games in LF and 8 games in RF with 9 assists. He turned 21 in August of '09, and appeared to be not too far from the majors.
In '10, Johnson was promoted to Double-A. He hit just .189 with 6 doubles, 10 homers, 31 RBI, 9 SB, and a .269 OBP in 75 games. He was demoted briefly in July to Rookie ball in attempt to get his confidence back, but he hit just .250 with 2 homers and 4 RBI in 6 games. He closed the season out at High-A, hitting .264 with 4 doubles, 6 homers, 25 RBI, and a .333 OBP in 25 games. He also played worse defensively, posting a .945 Fld% with 6 assists.
The Yankees got Johnson for nothing but cash, so it's a very low-risk gamble. Johnson clearly has power- he has hit 66 homers the last 3 seasons. If he can post a league-average BA, he could be a good player, maybe Nick Swisher-esque, hitting 30 homers a season. If not, he can be compared to former Yankee Shelley Duncan. Duncan hit 19 homers per season from '06 to '09, his last 4 full seasons in the minors (that number increases to 21 homers per season if you add in 8 major league homers over those 4 seasons). What has he amounted to? Well, he hit .231 with 11 homers as a part-time player for Cleveland in '10. The good news for Johnson is that he's just 22. Unlike Duncan, he has some time to get himself together. If he can do that, he will be a good player.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Matt Kemp to the Yankees?
Every rumor has to start with the Yankees. Kemp doesn't appear to be a fit, but the Yankees could consider trading Nick Swisher. Swisher has been a great personality in the clubhouse, and he does have power, but there's no way the Yankees wouldn't at least consider including him in a trade for a talent like Kemp. Kemp only had 3 less homers than Swisher's 29 in '10, and the same amount of RBI (89). Plus, Kemp has logged 168 games in RF, posting a .973 Fld%, but a league-average .982 Fld% in 70 combined games in '08 and '09. He could be OK in right defensively. The Yankees would then have a very fast outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Kemp. (Before anyone asks, a Gardner-Granderson-Crawford outfield would not work because they have a combined 0 games in RF. But, if Swisher is traded, Jayson Werth could definitely play RF, since it's been his primary position since '07.) So, what could the Dodgers get in return for Kemp. Well, pretty much anything they wanted besides Jesus Montero. My guess would be a package of something like Swisher, C Austin Romine, and OF Melky Mesa (a player who could eventually be a Kemp-like player if he pans out) for Kemp and OF Jamie Hoffmann (back to the Yankees after being returned after the Rule 5 draft). Let's analyze this theoretical trade.
Swisher had an all-star season in '10, hitting .288 with 33 doubles, 29 homers, 89 RBI, 91 runs, and a .359 OBP in 150 games. He posted a slightly-above average .986 Fld% in RF. He's certainly a good player. Do the Yankees want to trade him, even for Kemp?
Romine, the Yankees' 2nd best catching prospect besides Montero, had a decent season in '10, hittting .268 with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, 61 runs, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. He posted a .994 Fld% at catcher, and a 23% CS%. He allowed 6 passed balls. Although those sould like good defensive stats, I've heard that he has had trouble handling good fastballs. That is definitely a problem. If you're worried that Montero may never be a full-time catcher, Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy are coming. The Yankees really don't need Romine.
Mesa, the other Melky, has been an interesting prospect. After hitting a .221 in his first 3 minor league seasons at Rookie ball and SS-A ball, He burst on to the scene at age 22 at Low-A in '09, hitting just .225, but with 24 doubles, 20 homers, 74 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 18 SB, and a .308 OBP in 133 games. In '10, he did even better, hitting .260 with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 81 runs, 31 SB, and a reasonable .338 OBP in 121 games. He owns just a .975 career Fld% in CF, but he posted a .985 Fld% there in '10. He would have been a good prospect if it weren't for those 3 lost seasons. Still, at 23 (he will turn 24 in January), he has a little time to develop. If he could put up his '09 and '10 numbers in the majors in let's say 2013, he could be a Matt Kemp-like player. It seems like a pretty good deal for the Dodgers if they get a former All-Star in Swisher, and a likely All-Star in Romine in addition to a possible Matt Kemp-esque player who if he does get to that level will be an All-Star.
Hoffmann had a nice season at Triple-A hitting .310 with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 74 RBI, 91 runs, 17 SB, and a .369 OBP in 139 games. He is a tremendous defensive outfielder, as he posted a great .996 Fld% in CF with 5 outfield assists. You would think that the Dodgers would want to keep him, but he's 26, and didn't even earn a September call-up in '10. Seems like trade bait to me.
Kemp, a 26 year old righty hitter, appeared in all 162 games for the Dodgers, hitting .249 with 25 doubles, 28 homers, 89 RBI, 6 triples, 150 hits, 82 runs, 19 SB (15 CS), a .310 OBP, a below-average .985 Fld% in CF, and just 3 outfield assists. Kemp is what he is. He has power and speed, but not a tremendous amount of either. Still, any player who could potentially put up a 30-30 season is a good player. Kevin Long could maybe fix his swing, and the Yankees could have far and away the best outfield in the majors, possibly an outfield that could all 3 be All-Stars in the same season. Picture that. As a Yankee fan, do you want the Yankees to trade for Kemp now? Is it a longshot? Maybe, but there's a chance. A chance of the trade happening and a chance that something special will happen in the Yankee outfield.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
With Granderson hurt, how's the Yankee outfield situation going to look?
Curtis Granderson was placed on the 15-day DL today with a groin injury. What is the Yankee outfield going to look like without him?
RF: Nick Swisher has gotten off to a pretty good start, hitting .259 with 3 homers, 13 RBI, and a .348 OBP, but there's no reason to think that he won't be able to put up numbers similar to his '09 numbers (.249 BA, 29 homers, 82 RBI). He's currently on pace to hit 22 homers with 96 RBI. The Yankees would undoubtedly be happy with that. He has not made an error yet in right field, so he has an 1.000 Fld%. His primary backup in RF is Randy Winn, who has been a complete disaster so far. He has hit just .077 (1 hit in 13 at-bats) with 0 homers and 0 RBI. He also not made an error yet for an 1.000 Fld%. The Yankees have a pretty good situation in RF right now.
CF: Up until now, Curtis Granderson has been the starting centerfielder for the Yankees. He has hit .225 with 2 homers, 7 RBI, 4 SB, and a .310 OBP. He has also hasn't made an error yet. After a hot start the first series in Boston (.333 BA, 2 homers, 2 RBI), Granderson has been a disappointment, hitting .206 with 0 homers and 5 RBI. Yes I know he was in a slump, and it's only the beginning of May, but there was some reason to be worried. Hopefully Granderson will be better when he comes back. Brett Gardner will be the starting CF now. Gardner has gotten off to a good start, hitting .333 with 0 homers, 7 RBI, 10 SB, and a .397 OBP. He's on pace to steal 74 bases! Gardner has made 1 error in the outfield, so he has a .974 Fld%. That percentage should improve over time, as Gardner is a very good fielder. Winn can also play CF. With Granderson out and Gardner in, the Yanks have a good situation in CF.
LF: Gardner has been the primary starter in LF so far, but because he is moving to CF because of the Granderson injury, Marcus Thames will step in as the primary left fielder. He is hitting .550 with 1 homer, 2 RBI, and a .650 OBP, playing in only 9 games so far. All but 1 of his at-bats so far have been against lefties, so Winn should get at least some starts against righties. During his career, Thames has hit .266 versus lefties and .233 versus righties. Thames has not yet made an error in the outfield. It will be interesting to see how Thames does in a starting role.
The Yankee outfield is definitely worse without Granderson, but the current guys should be okay. But, If the Yanks need to call up another outfielder from the minors, it would probably be Greg Golson. Golson is hitting .275 with 2 homers, 7 RBI, 4 SB, and a .296 OBP at Triple-A. He has stolen at least 20 bases in the minors every season since '05. He has not yet made an error at CF or LF. He also played RF last year at Triple-A for the Rangers. I wrote about the details of his acquisition by the Yankees here: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/554465-yankees-rangers-trade. He isn't a very good player, but maybe he could hit better than the .077 that Winn is hitting right now. In conclusion, without Granderson the Yanks still have a pretty good outfield, and if necessary, they have another decent outfielder waiting at Triple-A.