Gil Meche's sudden retirement shows that pitch counts do matter

For those of you who think that pitch counts are a complete joke, you're wrong.

On June 16th, 2009, Gil Meche had one of the best starts of his career. Through 8 innings, he had allowed no runs, and just 4 hits while striking out 5 and walking just one. He had thrown 110 pitches. Instead of bringing in a reliever to pitch the 9th in a 5-0 game, Royals manager Trey Hillman kept Meche in their. Meche retired the side 1-2-3 to complete his complete-game shutout, but he used 22 pitches to do so, finishing with 132 pitches on the day.

Gil Meche has retired from baseball at the age of 32. He said that he retired because of a shoulder injury that would have required surgery. After that fateful day, June 16th, 2009, Meche went just 2-10 with a 6.86 ERA. He was never the same after throwing 132 pitches in that game.

All the young pitchers are protected. They have innings limits and pitch count limits. Maybe so should the veterans too, to some extent.

Not all pitchers are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, or Cliff Lee. A lot of pitchers are much more fragile. The Mariners and the Royals weren't careful at all with Meche.

Two years after making his major league debut with the Mariners in 1999, Meche didn't appear in any major league games in 2001 and 2002 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. In 2003, he pitched 186.1 innings (going 15-3 with a 4.59 ERA), but he posted just a 6.19 ERA after June 20th. He had surpassed his career high for innings in the majors (he had thrown 175.2 innings between the majors and minors in 1999) in that June 20th start which lowered his ERA to 2.89. Fine, Meche only surpassed his career high for innings by just 9.2 IP, but remember that he was just coming off of Tommy John surgery. I'm not saying that the Mariners should have limited him so much after already missing two years to the surgery, but they shouldn't have let him surpass his career high for innings pitched.

In 2004, the Mariners seemingly made an adjustment for Meche, allowing him to throw just 127.2 major league innings, but don't be fooled- he pitched 57 innings at Triple-A as well. (He actually posted a higher ERA, 5.05, at Triple-A than in the majors, 5.01.) Finally in 2005, he was limited to just 143.1 IP, but he still posted a 5.09 ERA. Despite his second-straight year with an ERA over 5.00, the Mariners stuck with him in the last year under their control in '06, allowing him to throw a career high 186.2 innings, and he did pretty well, going 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA.

After the '06 season, the Royals made the stupid decision of signing Meche to a 5 year, 55 million dollar contract. But, after the first year of the contract, the Royals had appeared to make at least a decent deal. Meche had his best season, throwing a career-high 216 innings and going just 9-13 for the hapless Royals, but posting a 3.67 ERA, tying his career high for strikeouts (156), and walking just 62 batters for a great ratio of just 2.6 per 9 innings (he had a 4.0 career BB/9 ratio before '07). In '08, Meche did something few players can do: win 14 games on the Royals. He was the first one to win 14 games on the Royals since Paul Byrd in 2002. (Obviously Zach Greinke did it in his Cy Young season in '09 as well.) Meche went 14-11 with a 3.98 ERA and a career-high 183 K's in 34 starts and 210.1 IP.

Through June 17th, 2009, Meche seemed to be on pace for his best season. Through 14 starts he had a 3.31 ERA and 67 strikeouts compared to 31 walks in 84.1 IP. But, after his 132-pitch complete game shutout on June 16th, Meche went just 2-5 with an 8.46 ERA. A good pitcher never just collapses like that at age 30. It was the 132 pitches.

In 2010, Meche went just 0-5 with a 5.69 ERA and just 41 strikeouts versus 38 walks in 9 starts, 11 relief appearances, and 61.2 IP. He missed from May 25th to September 1st with his shoulder injury. His career was over at age 32 (his 32nd birthday was September 8th).

What's the message here? Two things: 1) you have to be somewhat careful with any pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery, and 2) no pitcher should be kept in for over 130 pitches except when ABSOLUTELY necessary. I'm not saying that pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery shouldn't throw 200 innings, but you have to let him work back up to a regular big league workload. Meche's career was sidetracked because the Mariners let him throw 186.1 innings right after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Then, after the Royals acquired him, they let him throw 216 innings, a jump of 30 innings from '06 to '07 and 50 IP over his average the previous two years. He was still 28 when the Royals got him, and even though they signed him to a big contract to be their ace, the Royals had to limit him somewhat to make sure that he could hold up all 5 years and still be effective. They didn't limit him at all, and not only was he not durable the past two years, but he couldn't even last the entirety of his contract. If I was the Royals I would have limited him to 200 innings in '07 and then let him pitch much a few more that that in '08 and around the same the rest of his deal. Again, they didn't and it cost them.

Let's go back to the trio above: Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Cliff Lee. We know all of them as innings eaters who often finish games. Halladay has thrown 130 or pitches in a game three times, one time each of the past three seasons. CC has throw over 130 pitches in a game just once in his career, during his wild card chase with the Brewers in '08. Cliff Lee has NEVER thrown 130 or more pitches in a game. Even for veterans, you can't throw pitch counts completely out the window. In non-must-win games, no pitcher should throw 130 or more pitches in a game, even if they're throwing a no-hitter (I'm talking to you, D-backs, about Edwin Jackson who you let throw a crazy 149 pitches in his 8-walk no-hitter).

We know that there are many young pitchers right now who could become the next Gil Meche by being overworked, especially after Tommy John surgery, and being forced to retire early. Teams, don't let that happen.

Greinke to Milwaukee

I am completely shocked. I didn't think the Yankees would get him, but when was the last time the Milwaukee Brewers made such a big trade? Anyway, let's review the trade. The trade is RHP Zack Greinke and SS Yuniesky Betancourt for SS Alcides Escobar, CF Lorenzo Cain, and RHP's Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi.

Greinke, after his dazzling 2009, did not put up great numbers in '10, going 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA and 181 K's in 33 starts and 220 IP. But, a closer look at his stats certainly shows you something interesting. After posting a 2.56 ERA in April (somehow going 0-2), he posted a 4.37 ERA from May until the end of July (although his record was 7-8). Every pitcher has bad stretches, and a 4.37 ERA isn't even that bad. Greinke then proceeded to post a 3.16 ERA in August, improving his ERA to 3.81. But then, he posted a 5.92 ERA in September. Still, he posted a 2-3 record that month. How? Well, he won the 2 games he pitched against teams with winning records, and posted 3 losses and a no-decision in his other starts. He just got bored. Being on the Royals can do that to you. Milwaukee is getting an amazing pitcher who will tear up the National League. You might even be able to make an argument that Milwaukee's top 4 in their rotation (Greinke, Yovani Gollardo, Shaun Marcum, and Randy Wolf) if the second best top 4 in the NL behind you-know-who, the South Beach of starting pitching, Philadelphia. It would not surprise me or anyone if Greinke finishes at least a solid third in the Cy Young award voting in the NL behind if anyone, Halladay and Lee.

Everyone likes Yuniesky Betancourt, right? Of course not. Betancourt is one of those players who starts on bad teams. Good thing the Brewers have Craig Counsell, right? (They also have a SS prospect named Luis Cruz who did well at Triple-A last year.) They better not start Betancourt, who has played 9 games at 2nd base during his career. So, how bad is Betancourt? At first glance, not so bad. He hit .259 in '10 with 29 doubles, 16 homers, and 78 RBI. Isn't that pretty good? Well, not really when you post a .288 OBP. His career high in OBP is .310. His career OBP is under .300 (.296). You just can't have a below-.300 OBP and expect to be a regular on a good team. The thing is though, how did he manage to drive in 78 run if he's such a bad player. The answer: pure luck. He hit .257 with runners in scoring position on the Royals! He just got lucky and had 152 at-bats in those situations. He had just 39 hits, but drove in 61 runs. The Brewers will certainly not give him that many at-bats (he had 588 overall in '10). Betancourt's 78 RBI were certainly a fluke that he will not replicate in 2011, even if he were to be given enough at-bats. And that's just his hitting! He posted a .974 Fld% at SS in '10, committing 18 errors (3 times as many as Derek Jeter). The league average Fld% at SS was .973. Even though he did show somewhat better range than Jeter, that's just bad. Betancourt is a bad player. The Royals are lucky to get rid of him.

Alcides Escobar was supposed to be the Brewers' shortstop for a long time. Well, that certainly didn't happen. Escobar appeared to have such a promising future after hitting .306, .328, and a .298 in the minors '07, '08, and '09 while stealing 98 bases. He got his chance in the majors in '10, but he just wasn't good enough. He hit .325 with 14 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, just 10 stolen bases, and, get this, the same OBP as Yuniesky Betancourt had in '10, .288. That's bad. I did withhold the fact that he did have 10 triples, third in the NL. Still, he certainly was a huge disappointment. And don't get me started on his defense. He posted a .967 Fld% at SS (the NL average was .971), with Derek Jeter-esque range (I mean that in a bad way). The Royals better hope and pray that Escobar develops into the player that his minor league stats 'said' he was going to be.

Cain had an exceptional year between the minors and majors in '10. He hit .317 in 84 minor league games with 11 doubles, 3 homers, 27 RBI, 9 triples, 27 SB, and a .402 OBP. He then hit .306 in the majors with 11 doubles, 1 homer, 13 RBI, 1 triple, 7 SB, and a .348 OBP in 43 major league games. He posted a .972 Fld% in CF in the minors, with 4 outfield assists, while posting a .980 Fld% with 2 assists in the majors. Cain's outfield assists count seems to be tied with his fielding percentage: in four minor league seasons, Cain posted a fielding percentage of .990 or better, but had no more than 3 outfield assists in any of those seasons. In the four minor league seasons besides '10 that Cain posted an ERA under .990 , Cain had no fewer than 8 outfield assists, including a ridiculous 15 outfield assists in 2006 (he did post just a .960 Fld% that season). Cain has a lot of potential and could be a fixture in the Royals outfield for a long time.

As if I haven't talking about enough misfits in this post, let me talk about Jeremy Jeffress. He has been suspended not once, but twice, for using marijuana. Simply put, that's not good. But, the righty reliever did well in both the minors and majors, posting a 2.23 ERA and 4 saves in 23 minor league appearances and a 2.70 ERA in 10 appearances for the Brewers. He could certainly be the next Royals closer after Joakim Soria leaves. They just need to keep him out of trouble.

Odorizzi is a righy starter that unlike the other players in this deal, has never played above Short Season-A ball. But, he did go 7-3 in '10 with a 3.43 ERA and 135 K's (10.1 K/9) in 20 starts, 3 relief appearances, and 120.2 IP at SS-A Wisconsin. He certainly has potential, and could be 'the next Greinke in a couple of years' (what the Royals stated they wanted) if he pans out.

This is an interesting trade for the Royals. Potentially, they could get four star players from this trade. But, there's a good chance that Escobar and Odorizzi don't pan out. It's a calculated gamble, and they better hope they're right. This is a great trade for the Brewers. For the prospects gave up, they all had reasons to trade them. Escobar was a disappointment, and they have Luis Cruz. For Cain, they have Carlos Gomez. Jeffress certainly has his problems, and you never know with Odorizzi, so it may have been worth it to trade him while his value was high. In return for these prospects, the Brewers got a star pitcher to cement their pitching staff in Greinke and will now be contenders in the NL Central and will certainly have an opportunity to win it.

A brief thought on Cliff Lee going to the Phillies

Everybody is shocked. How the heck did Cliff Lee turn down both the Yankees' money and the Rangers' proximity to his home an his great experience there this past season? Well, after thinking about it, there is a simple reason that Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies. Lee's plan was to go to Philadelphia the whole time. The only question was whether the Phillies would make an offer that was anywhere near the offers of the Yankees and Phillies. They did, so he signed. But, what was Lee's reasoning behind the move? He never wanted to leave. Lee and his wife loved Philadelphia. Lee had spent just half a season there, but was already talking about a contract extension after the season. But, then the Phillies traded for Roy Halladay, and apparently because of budget issues (how ironic!), they were forced to trade Lee to Seattle. Lee was upset, but he appeared to move on after the season started. He then got traded to Texas, led them to a World Series, and started saying 'we' when referring to the team. Acting like that to the Mariners and Rangers was just a negotiation strategy. He even had his wife look for a house in New York with CC Sabathia's wife, possibly for an ulterior motive as well. Acting like such a 'darling' with the other teams made them think they had a chance at signing him (the Mariners tried to sign Lee to an extension) to up the Phillies' offer. It was a great a move by Lee and his agent, but as a Yankee fan I hate it, and so should all other Yankee fans and all Ranger fans. He used us all.

Crawford to Boston

OF Carl Crawford has agreed to a 7 year, 142 million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. That gives the Red Sox four starting outfielders (Crawford, Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew, and Jacoby Ellsbury), so Ellsbury is about to be traded, probably to San Diego as the player to be named in the Adrian Gonzalez deal.

First, let's look at this deal from Boston's standpoint. They're getting one of the best outfielders in baseball. Crawford had a ridiculous season in '10, hitting .307 with 30 doubles, 19 homers, 90 RBI, 13 triples, 110 runs, 184 hits, 47 SB (10 CS), and a .356 in 154 games for the Rays. His 13 triples led the league, while his 47 stolen bases were third, and his .307 BA was 9th. To put his stats in perspective, he had the same BA as Ryan Zimmerman, 1 less homer than Victor Martinez, as many stolen bases as Brett Gardner (1 more CS than him), and 1 less run than Miguel Cabrera (and Derek Jeter). He also posted a .994 Fld% in LF with 7 outfield assists, good enough to win a Gold Glove. He's just an amazing player, and he will be worth every penny of the 142 million.

How about Ellsbury though? Is Crawford that much better than him? Well, first of all, Ellsbury couldn't stay healthy in '10. That's obviously a problem. Even ignoring the injuries, let's look at his 2009, his best season. He hit .301 with 27 doubles, 8 homers, 60 RBI, 10 triples, 94 runs, 188 hits, 70 SB (12 CS), and a .355 OBP in 153 games. But, the more advanced metrics say that Ellsbury played very badly defensively in centerfield that season. More notable to me is his -9.7 UZR (9.7 runs below average Ultimate Zone Rating). He had a 21.3 UZR in '08, the year before. Crawford by the way, had an 18.5 UZR in '10. (Gardner posted a 21.9 UZR to lead all AL left fielders in '10.) Ellsbury just wasn't that great of a player for Boston. But, is he so bad to warrant the Red Sox paying Crawford about 18 million dollars more than Ellsbury will make in '10? No. Good job by the Red Sox to sign Crawford, but from an economic standpoint at least, it wasn't worth it to sign Crawford to replace Ellsbury for so much more money. The way that the Red Sox could resolve that would be to trade Mike Cameron. Of course, no other would team pay an outfielder that will be 38 in a month and who was hurt in '10 and has a .250 career batting average eight million dollars (he was a TERRIBLE signing). So, the Red Sox are going to be forced to trade Ellsbury.

Now, let's look at it from a Yankee standpoint. My first reaction to the signing was "Oh no, the Red Sox signed Crawford!". My second reaction was a very different one. The Red Sox signing Crawford isn't a good thing for the Yankees, but it isn't so bad for two reasons: 1) the Yankees can focus all their energies on signing Cliff Lee, knowing that they don't have Crawford as a backup plan (they just offered Lee a 7 year deal); and 2) both Gardner and Nick Swisher will be back in 2011.

Who will win the World Series?

Giants-Rangers in the World Series. I want to find the person who predicted that matchup from the beginning of the playoffs, let alone at the beginning of the season. Anyway, who's going to win?

Catcher: Bengie Molina vs. Buster Posey

Molina is a 13-year veteran, and his age (35) definitely showed in '10. He hit just .249 with 12 doubles, 5 homers, 36 RBI, and just a .297 OBP in 118 games, ironically between the Giants and Rangers. But, he has played very well in the playoffs, hitting .357 with a homer and 2 RBI in the ALDS, and .313 with a homer and 5 RBI in the ALCS. He is still a good defensive catcher, as he posted a.993 Fld%, a 23% CS%, and just 4 passed balls. He still has some gas in the tank.

Posey, on the other hand, is playing his rookie season. And what a rookie season it was. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He has hit .282 with 3 RBI in the playoffs. Posey is also a very good diffensive catcher, as he posted a .991 Fld% in '10 with a 37% CS% and just 1 passed ball. He's a great player with a great career ahead of him.

Advantage: Giants

1st basemen: Mitch Moreland vs. Aubrey Huff

Moreland had a pretty good rookie season, hitting .255 with 4 doubles, 9 homers, 25 RBI, and a .364 OBP in 47 games. (Project thsoe numbers over a full season, and he would have hit .255 with 14 doubles, 31 homers, and 86 RBI.) He has hit .303 with 4 RBI in the playoffs. He has posted a pretty good .993 Fld% at 1B. He's a nice young player who has made Rangers fans all but forget Justin Smoak (traded in the Cliff Lee deal).

At 33, Huff is no longer in his prime, but if you looked at his numbers you wouldn't know. He had a great year in '10, hitting .290 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, and a .385 OBP in 157 games. He has done OK in the playoffs, hitting .256 with 4 RBI. He is a good defensive 1st baseman, as he posted a .996 Fld% in '10. Eventually, he's going to slow down, but not right now.

Advantage: Giants

2nd basemen: Ian Kinsler vs. Freddy Sanchez

Kinsler missed time with a groin injury, but still had a nice year. He hit .286 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 45 RBI, 15 SB, and a .382 OBP in 102 games. In '09, he went 30-30, hitting 31 homers and stealing 31 bases. He has had a great postseason, hitting .342 with 3 homers and 9 RBI. He is a pretty good defensive 2B, as he posted a slightly-above average .985 Fld%. He is a very good player and a feared hitter in the Rangers lineup.

Sanchez had a pretty good season in '10, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 111 games. He has hit .268 with an RBI in his first postseason. He is still a great defensive 2B, as he as posted a .991 Fld% in '10. He is hampered by a shoulder injury right now. Sanchez is a good player, especially in terms of BA and defense.

Advantage: Rangers

3rd basemen: Michael Young vs. Pablo Sandoval

Young had an great year in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doublles, 21 homers, 91 RBI, 99 runs, and a .330 OBP in 157 games. He has hit .255 with a homer and 7 RBI in the playoffs so far, but .333 in the ALCS. He's a slightly below average defensive 3B, as he posted a .950 Fld% there in '10. Young is still a great player, despite being past his prime and at his 3rd defensive position.

Sandoval had a very disappointing year in '10, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. That came one year after hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI and a .387 OBP in 153 games in '09. He has hit just .214 in the playoffs, but he had a key 2-run double in the NLCS. He's actualy a slighty above average 3B, as he posted a .961 Fld%. We know from '09 that Sandoval is a great player who can jump-start the Giants' lineup.

Advantage: Rangers

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus vs. Juan Uribe

Andrus had a nice Sophomore season in '10, hitting .265 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 35 RBI, 32 SB, 88 runs, and a .342 OBP in 147 games. He has hit .333 with 3 RBI and 7 SB in the playoffs, although he was picked off twice by the Yankees in the ALCS. He's an average defensive SS, as his .976 Fld% in '10 was .003 better than the league average at SS. He is a good leadoff hitter who sets the table for the big hitters behind him.

Suprisingly, almost shockingly, Uribe had the best season of his career as he entered his prime in '10. He hit just .248, but with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 85 RBI, and a .310 OBP in 148 games. But, he hit just .071 in the NLDS with an RBI and just ,214 with a homer and 3 RBI in the NLCS. He is a well above-average defensive SS, as he posted .984 Fld% there in '10, in addition to a .957 Fld% at 3B (slightly above average) and a 1.000 Fld% in 24 games at 2B. He's a good player.

Advantage: Toss-up. They're such different players.

Left Field: Nelson Cruz vs. Pat Burell

Cruz, despite missing time with a hamstring injury, had a great year in '10, hitting .318 with 31 doubles, 22 homers, 78 RBI, 17 SB, and a .374 OBP in 108 games. He's also been amazing in the playoffs, hitting .375 with 5 homers and 8 RBI. He's a below-average defender in RF (.979), but he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in LF during the regular season and has often played LF in the playoffs. He's a great player in the middle of the Texas lineup.

Burell had an OK year in '10, hitting .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between Tampa and Texas. He hit .200 with a homer and 3 RBI against the Braves in the NLDS, and .211 with an RBI against the Phillies, his former team, in the NLCS. He is an average fielder in LF, posting a .985 Fld%. Burell, at 33 years old, is in decline, but he still has some pop.

Advantage: Rangers

Centerfield: Josh Hamilton vs. Andres Torres:

Hamilton had a ridiculous year in '10, hitting .359 with 40 doubles, 32 homers, 100 RBI, 186 hits, 95 runs, and a .411 OBP in 133 games. He missed the vast majority of September with broken ribs that are still bothering him, at least to some extent. Not that it's possible to tell just from his playoff stats. After hitting just .111 with an RBI in the ALDS against the Rays, he exploded in the ALCS against the Yankees, hitting .350 with 4 homers and 7 RBI. He posted just a .979 Fld% in LF in '10, but a 1.000 Fld% in CF, where he has played in the playoffs. He is just an incredible player.

Torres had a good first full season in the big leagues at age 32. A former Ranger (8 games), Torres hit .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 SB, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. After hitting ,125 in the NLDS, he hit .350 in the NLCS. He has no homers or RBI's in the playoffs, and just 1 SB against 3 CS's. He is a great defensive CF, as he posted a .995 Fld% there in addition to 1.000 Fld%'s in RF and LF. He's a good player, but frankly, he's not anywhere near as good as Hamilton.

Advantage: Rangers

Right Field: David Murphy/Jeff Francoeur vs. Cody Ross

Murphy and Francoeur have been platooning in RF for the Rangers during the playoffs. Murphy, the lefty, hit .291 with 26 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 14 SB, and a .358 OBP in 138 games. He has hit .200 with a homer and 2 RBI in the playoffs so far. Francoeur, the righty, hit .249 with 18 doubles, 13 homers, 65 RBI, 8 SB, and a .300 OBP in 139 games between the Mets and Rangers. He has hit just .167 with an RBI in the playoffs. Murphy posted a .995 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions, while Francoeur, a one-time Gold Glover, posted a .988 Fld% in RF, but with 11 outfield assists, tops among NL right fielders. Murphy and Francoeur are OK players.

Ross hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 SB and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and the Giants. He's playing out of his mind in the playoffs right now, hitting .324 with 4 homers and 8 RBI. A natural CF (.994 career Fld%), Ross posted a below average .982 Fld% in RF. He's always been a good player (20 homers in '08 and '09), but right now he's becoming a playoff star.

Advantage: Giants

Total: Rangers 4, Giants 3, 1 toss-up

Vladimir Guerrero will be the DH for Texas. He had a truly great season, hitting .300 with 27 doubles, 29 homers, 115 RBI, 93 runs, and a .345 OBP. But, will the Rangers play him in RF in San Francisco? He posted just a .933 Fld% in 17 games in RF. He's a great hitter, but he could be just a pinch-hitter in San Francisco.

Pitchers:

Aces (Games 1 and 5 unless they go on short rest): Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum

Lee had somewhat of an off-year, going 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 185 K's in 28 starts and ironically 212.1 IP. He also had 7 complete games. Of course Lee is probably the best postseason pitcher ever. He went 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in the ALDS and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in the ALCS. For his career, he's 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in 8 starts. He's just ridiculous in the playoffs.

Lincecum also had an off-year '10, at least by his standards. The 2-time defending Cy Young Award winner went 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA and 231 K's (tops in the NL) in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's undoubtedly a great pitcher.

Advantage: Rangers

Number 2 starters (Games 2 and 6): C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Cain

Wilson had a great first full year as a starter. He went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 170 K's in 33 starts and 204 IP. He led the AL with 93 walks. He has 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a good pitcher, but he has to improve those playoff numbers.

Cain had a great season in '10, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA and 177 K's in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He has been untouchable, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts. He's a great pitcher that provides a very good 1-2 punch with Lincecum.

Advantage: Giants

Number 3 starters (games 3 and 7): Colby Lewis vs. Jonathan Sanchez

Lewis had a nice season in '10, going 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA and 196 K's in 32 starts and 202 IP. It was his first season in the majors since '07 because he was in Japan in '08 and '09. He has had an amazing postseason, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in 3 starts. He has played very well.

Sanchez had his first great year as a starter. He went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA and 205 K's in 33 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 193.1 IP. He has gone 0-1 with a 2.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a very good pitcher.

Advantage: Toss-up. Sanchez had a better regular season, but Lewis has been better in the playoffs.

Number 4 starters (game 4): Tommy Hunter vs. Madison Bumgarner

Hunter had a good year, going 13-4 with a 3.72 ERA and 68 K's in 22 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 128 innings. He missed April and May with an oblique injury. But, he has been killed in the playoffs, going 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA. He'll have to at least get back to his regular season numbers. He's an OK pitcher.

Bumgarner had a good year also, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA and 86 K's in 18 starts and 111 IP after being called up on June 26th. He has gone 0-0 with a 3.55 ERA in the playoffs. He's young, but he has pitched well.

Advantage: Giants

Total- Giants 4, Rangers 3 (let's say the 'advantage' pitchers win all their matchups and Lewis and Sanchez split their 2 games)

Bullpen:

Closer: Neftali Feliz vs. Brian Wilson

Feliz had a great rookie season, going 4-3 with a 2.73 ERA, 71 K's, and 40 saves in 70 relief appearances and 69.1 IP. He has gone 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA in the playoffs (no saves). He's a good young closer.

Wilson had a amazing season as the Giants' closer, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, and 48 saves in 70 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Those 48 saves led the NL. He has been perfect in the playoffs, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 5 saves. He might be the best closer in baseball right now.

Advantage: Giants

Other key members of bullpen:

Rangers: Darren O'Day (6-2, 2.03), Darren Oliver (Lefty; 1-2, 2.48), Alexi Ogando (4-1, 1.30)

Giants: Sergio Romo (5-3, 2.18), Santiago Casilla (7-2, 1.95), Javier Lopez (Lefty; 2-0, 1.42)

Advantage: Rangers

Prediction: Giants in 7- their starting pitching is better, and their hitting and bullpen aren't that much worse.

Should the Yankees have traded for Lee?

The Rangers acquired Cliff Lee in exchange for Justin Smoak and 3 other prospects. The Mariners thought it was a good offer, even better than the Yankees' offer of Jesus Montero and 3 other prospects. They must have thought that Smoak will be a star. Were they wrong?

Smoak was the 11th overall pick in the loaded first round of the 2008 MLB draft. There obviously were busts (most notably #1 overall pick Tim Beckham), but the players that have panned out are Pedro Alvarez (#2 overall), Brian Matusz (#4), Buster Posey (#5), and Gordon Beckham (#8). Ike Davis (#18) was drafted after Smoak. I realize that it's not completely fair to compare Smoak to the players, but let's do it anyway.

It took Alvarez just 1.5 seasons to get to the majors. He hit .288 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 126 games between Low-A Lynchburg and Double-A Altoona in '09. After hitting .277 with 15 doubles, 13 homers, 53 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 66 games for Triple-A Indianapolis, Alvarez was called up to the majors. Alvarez had a pretty good year after being called up on June 16th, hitting just .256, but with 21 doubles, 16 homers, and 64 RBI. His OBP was .326. He does need work defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at 3rd base. He will be just 23 in '11, so he will have time to develop into a better player both offensively and defensively at the major league level. Alvarez is a nice young player who will be a cornerstone of the Pirates for years to come.

Brian Matusz made it to the majors in under 1 season. After a dominating minor league season in '09 between Low-A Frederick and Double-A, Matusz made it to the majors at age 22. Matusz went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 121 K's in 19 starts and 113 innings in the minors, and 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 38 K's in 8 starts and and 44.2 IP in the majors. Matusz improved in '10, going 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA and 143 K's in 32 starts and 175.2 IP. Matusz was just 4-12 with a 5.28 ERA on August 13th, but went undefeated the rest of the year, going 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 8 starts. The Orioles won all 8 of those games. Matusz really has a promising future. Pretty soon he will be the Orioles' ace.

Buster Posey dominated the minors for parts of 3 seasons before making it to the majors at age 22. Unlike Alvarez and Matusz, Posey signed soon enough to play in '08. He played in 10 games between Rookie ball and SS-A Salem Keizer, hitting .351 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, and a .467 OBP. It was a sign of things to come. Posey had another great season in '09, hitting .325 with 31 doubles, 18 homers, 80 RBI, 84 runs, and a .416 OBP in 115 games between High-A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. But, Posey had 14 passed balls at catcher, so he began '10 at Fresno. He hit very well once again, hitting .349 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 32 RBI, and a .442 OBP in 47 games while only allowing one passed ball. He was then promoted to the majors, and is a candidate to win NL Rookie of the Year. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He posted a .991 Fld% at catcher, throwing out 37% of attempted base stealers, and allowing just 1 passed ball. He is a very talented player who will be the catcher for the Giants for a long time.

Gordon Beckham took just 1 full season in the minors to make the majors at age 22. After signing early enough to play in '08, Beckham hit .310 with 2 doubles, 3 homers, and 8 RBI, and a .365 OBP in 14 games at Low-A Kannapolis. It was a stepping stone to a great season. He hit .326 with 23 doubles, 4 homers, 25 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 45 games between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte before being promoted to the majors. He did OK in the majors, hitting .270 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 63 RBI, and a .347 OBP in 103 games. But, he posted a below-average .952 Fld% at 3rd base. He was the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year and finished 5th in the real voting. He had a bit of a sophmore slump in '10, hitting .252 with 25 doubles, 9 homers, 49 RBI, and a .317 OBP in 131 games. Part of the problem was that he was moved to 2nd base, where he posted a below average .981 Fld%. But, he hit .320 from July 20th to the end of the year. Whatever his problem was, he fixed it. He should be a White Sox' infielder for a long time. Despite his sub-par year, I wouldn't be too surprised if the White Sox lock him up long term.

Davis needed 1.5 full seasons in the minors before making the majors at age 23. He signed the earliest among this group, and ended up playing 58 games for SS-A Brooklyn and was a disappointment. He hit just .256 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 17 RBI, and a .326 OBP. But, that was the last time that Davis was a disappointment. He hit .298 in '09 between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton with 31 doubles, 20 homers, 71 RBI, and a .381 OBP in 114 games. After just 10 games for Triple-A Buffalo in '10 in which he hit .364 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 4 RBI, and a .500 OBP, Davis was promoted to the majors. He had a great rookie season, hitting .264 with 33 doubles, 19 homers, 71 RBI, and a .341 OBP in 147 games. He was right at the league average with a .993 Fld% at 1st base. I'll make a bold statement and say that he's the next David Wright. He'll be a fixture at 1st base for the Mets.

Well, I've gone through everybody else. So, how good is Smoak?

In his first taste of pro ball in '08, Smoak hit .304 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 6 RBI in 14 games at Low-A Clinton. He didn't make any errors in 10 games at 1st base. It was definitely a nice showing, albeit in such a short period of time.

In '09, Smoak worked his way all the way up to Triple-A. After hitting .667 with 2 homers and 5 RBI at Rookie ball, Smoak was promoted to Double-A Frisco where he hit .328 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, and a .449 OBP in 50 games. It was a great showing, and he appeared to be on the fast track to the majors. He was so good at Frisco that he was brought up to Triple-A Oklahoma City, but there he struggled. In 54 games, Smoak hit just .244 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, and 23 RBI. But, Smoak did post a .363 OBP,which was great when considering his Low BA. But, he was just 23 years old, so he could adjust to Triple-A in '10.

Did Smoak make that adjustment? Well, after 15 games at Oklahoma City, Smoak hit .300 with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 5 RBI before being rushed to the majors. Smoak had his moments with the Rangers, but mostly he struggled. He hit just .209, but with 10 doubles, 8 homers, and 34 RBI. He posted a .318 OBP. Then of course, he was traded to the Mariners in the Lee trade. He remained with the Mariners from July 10th to July 29th and struggled mightily. He hit just .159 with 1 double, 2 homers, and 5 RBI in 16 games. To compound the problem, he posted just a .169 OBP, walking once and striking out 23 skill. After that terrible showing, Smoak was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma. He did just OK for Tacoma, hitting .271 with 7 doubles, 7 homers, and 25 RBI, although he did post a .377 OBP. But, somehow the work at Triple-A helped him, and he was a different player when he came back to the majors on September 18th. He hit .340 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 14 games from September 18th to October 3rd. Overall in '10, Smoak hit .218 with 14 doubles, 13 homers, 48 RBI, and a .307 OBP in 100 games. It was a disappointment, but the Mariners hope his great finish to the year will carry over into '11. He will have 1 major league season under his belt (he will be 24), and the Mariners hope that experience will jump-start a great career.

Among the others, Smoak is certainly not the best right now. Posey is far and away the top player in this group, then Davis, Alvarez, and Beckham in that order before Smoak. But, does he have the ability to be a great player? Well, the Mariners must think so. If he really deserved the Teixeira comparisons he was getting while on the Rangers, then he will be a great player.

Will the Lee trade end up being a good trade for the Mariners? There are 3 other players that Seattle acquired, but the trade will end up being graded based on Smoak's performance. If he never becomes a star, it was a bad trade. As of now, if I were a Mariners fan, I would have wished for Lee to be traded to the Yankees for Montero.

Yankee prospects season review

In this post, I will review the 2010 seasons of the top Yankee prospects and figure out how close they are to the majors. I will group them by position.

Catchers:

Jesus Montero: Montero got off to a rough start in 2010, but rebounded to have a great year. He ended up hitting .289 for Triple-A Scranton with 34 doubles, 21 homers, and a .353 OBP in 123 games. The 21 homers were a career-high and the 34 doubles tied a career high. The BA and OBP were Montero's lowest since '07, but it's a good sign that he was able to rebound from the bad start. He also played relatively well defensively, throwing out 23% of runners while posting a .992 Fld%. (Keep in mind that Montero's CS% is higher than both Posada and Cervelli. Of course, he's up against Triple-A base stealers, not big league base stealers.) But, it seems unlikely that he will ever be a full-time catcher. There's a chance that Montero could start 2011 on the big league roster. At the latest, he will arrive in the majors in September 2011. He will turn 21 in November. ETA: Sometime in 2011

Austin Romine: Romine continues to put up decent seasons in the minors. He hit .268 in 2010 for Double-A Trenton with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. His 31 doubles was a career-high. He posted a 23% CS% at catcher with a .994 Fld%. Romine sounds like a good defender and does have potential, but right now he's had trouble handling great fastballs. He'll obviously have to improve that. Romine will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2012

Others: 17 year old Gary Sanchez hit .329 with 8 homers and 43 RBI in 47 games between Rookie ball and Short Season-A. He had some struggles defensively, posting just a .971 Fld% although he did throw out 26% of attempted base stealers. He DH'd 17 times on the year. ETA: September 2014... 19 year old J. R. Murphy hit .255 with 7 homers and 54 RBI in 87 games for Low-A Charleston. His defense is also a work-in-progress, as he posted a .973 Fld% and a 23% CS%. Those struggles caused him to play DH 34 times with Kyle Higashioka catching. ETA: September 2013... 20 year old Kyle Higashioka hit just .225 for Low-A Charleston, but shined defensively, posting a .987 Fld% and a 33% CS%. He could eventually be a decent big league backup. ETA: September 2012

First basemen:

Brandon Laird: Laird had a great season in 2010 for Double-A Trenton. He hit .291 with 22 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 107 games. He was so good that he was promoted to Triple-A Scranton where he hit .246 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .268 OBP in 31 games. A player who has split time between 3rd base and 1st base, Laird's sub-par defense at 3rd will move him to 1st. He posted just a .931 Fld% at 3rd base this year and has a .934 Fld% there for his career. Meanwhile, he has a .992 career Fld% at 1st including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 6 games there in '10. His only full season at 1st was '08 when he played 88 games at the position and posted a .993 Fld%. Pending a Teixeira injury, Laird will probably never get a chance to start at 1st base for the Yankees. So, his value would come as a bench player with a great bat who could play both 1st and 3rd. Laird's bat needs more work at Triple-A, and his glove, particularly at 3rd, needs more work as well. Certainly though, Laird's bat will get him to the majors in 2011. He turned 23 in September. ETA: August or September 2011

Marcos Vechionacci: Vechionacci finally started hitting in 2010 after years of struggles. He hit .283 for Double-A Trenton with 17 doubles, 11 homers, 55 RBI, 6 SB, and a .350 OBP in 114 games. The 11 homers was a career-high, and the .283 BA was a career high for a season in which he played in 80 or more games. His glove has never been great, but he has experience at every infield position. He has 70 career games at 1st, 3rd, and SS in addition to 7 games at 2nd. But, he has just a .958 career Fld%. If he can fix those defensive problems, he could compete for a utility role in 2012. He turned 24 in August. ETA: September 2011

Others: 22 year old Kyle Roller, the Yankees' 8th round pick in June, hit .267 with 5 homers and 31 RBI in 67 games for SS-A Staten Island. He posted a good .367 OBP. But, he posted just a .987 Fld% at first base. ETA: September 2013 or 2014... 18 year old Ramon Flores hit .329 in Rookie ball, and managed to get promoted all the way up to Low-A and High-A, hitting .250 at both levels. He played all 4 corner positions, struggling to the tune of a .948 Fld% at 1st, although he did post a .983 Fld% in RF and 1.000 Fld% in 10 games in LF and 1 at 3rd. Maybe he could be a utility player down the line. ETA: September 2013 or 2014...23 year old Robert Lyerly had a great offensive season in '10, hitting .312 with 36 doubles, 7 homers, 71 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 131 games for Low-A Charleston. But, notice I said "offensive season", not just "season". Lyerly posted a completely disastrous .873 Fld% at 3rd base, his primary position, and just a .978 Fld% at 1st base as well. Well, he's certainly a much better 1st baseman than 3rd baseman. He improve his fielding and keep, hitting at every level if he wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2013 or 2014

Second basemen:

David Adams: David Adams was off to a great start in '10, hitting .309 with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, and a .393 OBP through 39 games. He hadn't even committed an error at 2nd base, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld%! But, then he fractured his ankle and was done for the year. The question is how Adams will come back. It is possible to develop arthritis after an injury like that, but I'm sure the doctors did everything they can to prevent that from happening. If Adams is fine next season, his bat could propel him to the majors by September. Should he be promoted, he also has experience at 3rd base. He is 23 years old. ETA: September 2011 if healthy, September 2012 or 2013 if recovery takes longer than expected

Reegie Corona: Corona had a bad year at the plate in '10, hitting just .238 with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 31 RBI, 14 SB, and a .306 OBP in 105 games at Triple-A Scranton, but he shined defensively. He posted a .998 Fld% at 2nd base, making just 1 error all season. That's even better than Robinson Cano, who will likely win a Gold Glove this year after posting a .996 Fld%, making just 3 errors all year. Corona also played both SS and 3rd base, but he struggling mightily at those positions, posting a .909 Fld% in 8 games at SS and a .895 Fld% in 9 games at 3rd base. Corona profiles well as a utility infielder. He has just a slight chance of winning a spot on the big league roster during spring training in 2011, but should join the big league club at least in September. ETA: Sometime in 2011

Others: 22 year old Corban Joseph had a nice year in 2010, hitting .283 with 33 doubles, 6 homers, 64 RBI, 7 triples, and a .362 OBP in 129 games between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. He did only hit .216 at Trenton after hitting .302 at Tampa. Defensively is another story. He posted just a .967 Fld% at 2B, not horrible, but pretty bad. He definitely needs work on his defense, but his bat should eventually get him to the majors. He will be 22 this month. ETA: September 2013...26 year old Kevin Russo made his MLB debut for the Yankees, hitting .184 with 4 RBI in 31 games. He did post an 1.000 Fld% at both 2nd base and 3rd base, but posted just a .933 Fld% while playing LF (he only made 1 error). His season in the minors was sort of like that also. After hitting .326 in '09, he hit just .259. He posted a great .992 Fld% at 2nd base, but also played every other position besides 1st base, pitcher, and catcher. He wasn't good at any of the other infield positions (.963 Fld% at SS and a .906 Fld% at 3B), or LF (.962 Fld%), but he did post an 1.000 Fld% in 6 combined games in CF and RF. He'll never be a good player, but he will be on the Yankees at some point in '11 as a super-utility player. ETA: He already has arrived, but he'll arrive again sometime in '11

Third base:

Laird (see above)

Bradley Suttle: Suttle rebounded in '10 after missing all of '09 with shoulder surgery. He hit .272 in 133 games for High-A Tampa, with 33 doubles, 10 homers, 80 RBI, 12 SB, and a .340 OBP. But, he posted a sub-par .951 Fld%. Already 24, Suttle really has to make up for his lost time in a hurry. He must improve defensively to continue his great hitting next season for Trenton if he even wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2012

Lyerly (see above)

Rob Segedin: Rob Segedin had a rough first 22 pro games. The Yankees' 3rd round pick in June hit just .244 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, and 10 RBI, and a .344 OBP in 22 games, all but 2 at SS-A Staten Island (the others were at Rookie ball). His defense was even worse, as he posted a .929 Fld% at 3rd base. He definitely needs a lot of work, both offensively and defensively. He will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2014 or 2015

Shortstop:

Eduardo Nunez: Nunez hit .280 with a homer and 5 SB in 30 games for the Yankees after a great 2010 in the minors. He posted an 1.000 Fld% at SS and a .944 Fld% at 3rd (1 error). But, he didn't make the postseason roster (Greg Golson made the team instead). Nunez hit .289 at Triple-A Scranton with 25 doubles, 4 homers, 50 RBI, 23 SB, and a .340 OBP in 118 games. He posted a .976 Fld% at SS in the minors, but just .917 Fld% at 3rd in 11 games, and just a .889 Fld% at 2B in 5 games. If Nunez wants to be a utility infielder for the Yankees in 2011, he must improve his defense. He is 23 years old. ETA: He has already arrived, and will likely make the Yankees out of spring training in 2011

Cito Culver: Culver, the Yankees' 2010 first round pick, struggled in his first taste of pro ball. He did OK at Rookie ball, hitting .269 with 7 doubles, 2 homers, 18 RBI, 6 SB, and a .320 OBP in 41 games. He posted a bad .918 Fld% at SS, but that's the case with most young shortstops. Culver was then promoted to SS-A Staten Island for some reason, and of course he struggled even more against older competition. He hit just .186 in 15 games game and posted just an .897 Fld%. Culver obviously had a disappointing debut, but he's just 18 and has plenty of time to improve. He is set up to be Derek Jeter's replacement at SS, and Jeter isn't going to retire for at least another couple of years. Culver has to improve both offensively and defensively, or Eduardo Nunez might end up replacing Jeter. ETA: Hopefully September 2014, before replacing Jeter in 2015

Others: 20 year old Jose Pirela had a good season for High-A Tampa, hitting just .252, but with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 61 RBI, 13 triples, 30 SB, and a .329 OBP in 130 games. He isn't as good defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at SS (in addition to a .957 Fld% at 2B). If he can improve defensively, maybe he will be a dark house for the starting SS job after Jeter. (If Jeter retires before 2014, Pirela could compete with Nunez to be the starting SS, at least until Culver arrives in the majors.) He will be 21 in November. ETA: 2012 to 2013... 17 year old Angelo Gumbs, the Yankees 2nd round pick in the '10 draft, had a terrible first 7 games, hitting .192 with no homers or RBI's (although he stole 3 bases), and posting just a .880 Fld% (3 errors). Gumbs, who may eventually be moved to the outfield because of Culver, needs a lot of work. ETA: September 2015...

Outfielders:

Slade Heathcott: 2009 1st round pick Slade Heathcott has had an "interesting" start to his career. Originally considered a 5-tool prospect, Heathcott has only shown some of those tools. Heathcott only hit .258 in '10 for Low-A Charleston, so he doesn't appear to be a good hitter for average. Heathcott struck out 101 times, but he did post a .359 OBP. He only 2 homers in '10, so his power hasn't developed yet. But, that's pretty common for young hitters to have their power develop later, and he did have 16 doubles in 76 games. He did show some speed, stealing 15 bases, hitting 3 triples, and scoring 48 runs in those 76 games. But, he was caught stealing 10 times for just a 60% SB success rate. Heathcott posted just a .953 Fld% in '10 (7 errors), so he doesn't seem to be a great defensive player, at least in CF. But, he did have 8 outfield assists, showing off his great arm. (Could he move to RF in the future?) Heathcott struck out 101 times and posted a .359 OBP. Heathcott might develop into a better all-around player, but so far he's been a bust. He has to improve his BA, improve his SB success rate, and improve his defense while waiting for his power to develop. Hopefully that will happen sooner rather than later. He turned 20 on September 28th. ETA: September 2013

Melky Mesa: If you thought the Yankees would never have a Melky again, you were wrong. Melky Mesa hit just .260 for High-A Tampa, but with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 31 SB, 81 runs, and a .338 OBP in 121 games. He posted a good .985 Fld% in CF (3 errors) with 6 outfield assists in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF. He really seems like a blue-chip prospect, but after spending 3 seasons in Rookie and SS-A ball, he's already 23 years old and will turn 24 on January 31st. Still, if Mesa can put up those kind of numbers in the higher levels of the minors, Mesa will have some future with the Yankees. He better move fast, starting with Double-A in 2011. As a legitimate 4-tool prospect (all tools besides BA), Mesa really has a chance. Hopefully he will make the majors in September 2012 after a solid campaign at Triple-A. ETA: September 2012

Others: 24 year old Colin Curtis hit .289 with 24 doubles, 5 homers, 27 RBI, and a .358 OBP in just 66 games at Triple-A Scranton in '10. The reason he played so few games was that he was called up to the Yankees on June 21st because of injuries to Curtis Granderson and Marcus Thames. Before being sent down on July 30th, Curtis hit .256 with a homer and 8 RBI (he didn't any hits in while posting an 1.000 Fld% in both LF and RF (but, his range factor was way below the league average). He also posted an 1.000 Fld% in the minors. Curtis might never be a starter in the outfield for the Yanks, but he could be a valuable bench player. He will be 25 in February. ETA: He already has arrived, and he will likely make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training... 23 year old Deangelo Mack had a pretty good year in '10, hitting .252 with 20 doubles, 12 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 5 SB (7 CS), and a .333 OBP in 116 games for Low-A Charleston. He's a little bit old, but he could potentially provide power off the bench. He better progress in a hurry. ETA: September 2012 (otherwise he probably won't make the majors)...25 year old Ray Kruml is another relatively old prospect, but he has legitimate speed. He hit .267 in 117 games between High-A and Low-A in '10, with 14 doubles, 1 homer, 21 RBI, and a .314 OBP in, all of which are sub-par, but he stole 42 bases while being caught 8 times. He's not a great outfielder, as he posted a .976 Fld% in CF, and a .973 Fld% in LF (in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF). He doesn't seem like even an average player, but maybe he could be a pinch-runner for the Yankees since Brett Gardner is now a starter. ETA: August 2013 (so he could possibly be on the playoff roster that year)...2010 4th rounder Mason Williams, a 19 year old CF, received the largest bonus the Yankees gave out this year, even more than 1st rounder Cito Culver. He hit .222 in 18 at-bats, so we really have no idea how good he'll be or how he'll progress. ETA: My guess is September 2014, but I have no idea

Pitchers:

Andrew Brackman: 2007 1st rounder Andrew Brackman finally got on track. After going 2-12 with a 5.91 ERA in 19 starts and 10 relief apperances for Low-A Charleston in '09, one year after Tommy John surgery, and 5-4 with a 5.10 ERA in 12 starts for High-A Tampa to begin '10, Brackman was promoted to Double-A Trenton and did great. He went just 5-7, but with a 3.01 ERA and 70 K's in 14 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 80.2 IP. This is the pitcher that the Yankees drafted in the 1st round! Hopefully he continues his success in '11, and we'll see him in September. He'll be 25 in December. ETA: September 2011

Ivan Nova: Nova certainly had his best season in '10. He went 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 135 K's in 23 starts and 145 IP before being promoted to the majors (he made his MLB debut earlier in 2010, tossing 3 scoreless innings in 2 relief appearances). After being promoted to stay on August 23rd, Nova went 1-2 with a 4.85 ERA in 7 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 39 IP. That's certainly not good, but it was decent enough to consider Nova for a rotation spot in 2011 (if the Yankees don't sign Cliff Lee). Nova has a promising future ahead for the Yankees, whether as a starter, or a reliever. ETA: Nova has already arrived, and should make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training

David Phelps: Phelps might be the only Yankee pitching prospect who had a better season than Nova in '10. Phelps went 10-2 with a 2.50 ERA in 141 K's in 25 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 158.2 IP. He was completely dominant. He had a 4 to 1 K/BB ratio (8.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9), and just a 7.9 H/9 ratio. His ERA did go up to 3.07 at Triple-A, but even that's good! Phelps is another Yankee starter with a very promising future, but he is a little bit older than Nova at 24. We'll see him in September 2011 along with Brackman. ETA: September 2011

Manny Banuelos: Banuelos had another great year despite missing time with an appendectomy. He went just 0-4 between Rookie ball, High-A, and Double-A, but with a 2.51 ERA and 85 K's in 15 starts and 64.2 IP. That's an 11.5 K/9! He posted his worst ERA among the 3 levels, 3.52, at Double-A, and understandably why. Just 19 years old, Banuelos is an incredible prospect. He should return to Double-A in '11, go to Triple-A in '12, and be promoted to the majors in September of '12. Even then, he'll be just be just 21 years old. ETA: September 2012

Others: 22 year old Dellin Betances went 8-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 108 K's in 17 starts and 85.1 IP between High-A and Double-A. He had a great 4.91 K/BB ratio (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9). His ERA jumped from 1.77 in High-A to 3.77 in Double-A, but that had to be expected. Hopefully he can do better at Double-A in '11, and do well enough at Triple-A in '12 to be promoted in September of that year. ETA: September 2012... 23 year old Graham Stoneburner had a great year in '10, going 9-8 with a 2.41 ERA and 137 K's in 26 starts and 142 IP between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa. He posted a great 4.03 BB/9 (8.7 K/9 and a 2.2 BB/9) while allowing just 6.8 hits per 9 innings. He's a bit old to be in High-A, but a good year in Double-A in '11 and in Triple-A in '12 will get him to the Yankees in September 2012 at age 24 (his birthday is in late September). If he continues to dominate the minors, the Yankees will find a place for him on the roster. ETA: September 2012...18 year old Gabriel Encinas, the Yankees' 6th round pick this year, is a 6"3 righty with great control. He is a sinkerballer with a curveball that has shown flashes and an OK changeup. He could be something in the future. He has yet to make his pro debut. ETA: September 2014 (?)... 21 year old reliever Thomas Kahnle, the Yankee 5th round pick in 2010, had a nice pro debut, posting a 0.56 ERA in 11 relief apperances for SS-A Staten Island. Not that those stats mean so much, but it's always positive to put up a 0.56 ERA at any level. Maybe we'll see him at some point. ETA: September 2013...27 year old starter Lance Pendelton went 12-5 with a 3.61 ERA and 133 K's in 27 starts, 2 relief apperances, and 154.2 IP. He is a bit old, but he has a chance to make an impact in the majors in the near future, probably as a reliever. He has 14 career relief appearances in the minors. He better make the majors soon if he ever wants a chance, with Brackman and Phelps coming. ETA: Sometime in 2011, if ever... 25 year old switch-pitcher Pat Venditte went 5-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 89 K's in 43 relief apperances, 6 saves, and 74.2 IP between High-A and Double-A. But, he struggled at Double-A, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in 2 relief appearances. Venditte will certainly have to turn that around in '11. Already 25 years old, Venditte better dominate Double-A in '11 and Triple-A in '12 and get promoted by September '12 at age 27. He'll make it to the majors eventually because he's such a novelty, but if he ever wants to be a quality reliever in the majors, he better get there quickly. ETA: September 2012

Many of the players I have mentioned will never make the majors, but there is a good chance that a couple of the players I mentioned will be All-Stars for the Yankees.

The roller coaster that is Cliff Lee's career

We all know Cliff Lee as that dominant starter with great control, but he certainly wasn't always like that. A 4th round pick by the Expos, Lee had a terrible pro debut in 2000, going 1-4 with a 5.24 ERA in 11 starts for Short Season-A Cape Fear. He did strike out 63 batters in 44.2 IP, but he also allowed 52 hits and 36 walks. But, in 2001, Lee dominated for High-A Jupiter. He went 6-7, but he posted a 2.79 ERA and 132 K's in 20 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 109.2 IP. He allowed just 78 hits and 46 walks and posted a great 2.8 K/H. After going 7-2 with a 3.23 ERA and 105 K's in 15 starts for Double-A Harrisburg, he was traded in the blockbuster deal that sent Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Lee Stevens to the Indians in exchange for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew. After struggling at Double-A Akron in 3 starts (5.40 ERA), he was promoted to Triple-A Buffalo and went 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 8 starts. He had a brief 'cup of coffee' in September for the Indians, going 0-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 2 starts. In '03, he went 7-1 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 starts at 3 different levels of the minors (including 6-1, 3.27 at Triple-A) before being promoted to the majors. He went 3-3 with a 3.61 ERA in 9 starts for Cleveland. In '04, his first full season in the big leagues, Lee certainly had his ups and downs. He went 14-8 with 161 K's in 33 starts and 179 innings, but he posted a 5.43 ERA and gave up 188 hits. He went 9-1 with a 3.77 ERA in the first half, but 5-7 with a 7.91 ERA in the second half. But, he closed the season well, winning his last 2 starts and posting a 2.03 ERA.

The great finish in '04 carried over into '05 for Lee. He had his first great season, going 18-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 143 K's in 33 starts and 202 IP. He allowed just 194 hits. He was much more consistent, going 9-4 with a 3.89 ERA in the first half and 9-1 with a 3.66 ERA in th, e second half. But, in '06, the consistency disappeared. He went 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA and 129 K's in 33 starts and 200.2 IP. He just allowed way too many hits (224). Lee went 8-6 with a 4.76 ERA in the first half before rebounding to go 6-5 with a 3.96 ERA in the 2nd half. In '07, Lee just plain collapsed. He went 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA and just 66 K's in 16 starts, 4 relief appearances and 97.1 IP. He allowed 112 hits, once again over a hit per inning. All 8 of his loses came on streaks of 4 straight loses in 4 consecutive starts. He was so bad that he was sent down for 10 starts in the minors and was left off Cleveland's postseason roster. Lee's strikeout total went down every year from '04 to '07. Although he proved he could be a good pitcher without striking too many batters out in '05, he allowed too many hits in '04, '06, and '07 to be successful without striking out batters at a higher rate.

Lee finally got the memo to give up less hits in '08. In doing so, he dominated, going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 170 K's in 31 starts and 223.1 IP on his way to the AL Cy Young Award. He allowed just 214 hits and 34 walks. Lee seemingly carried the success into '09, going just 7-9, but with a 3.14 ERA and 105 K's in 22 starts for the Indians before being traded to the Phillies. But, Lee allowed 165 hits in 152 IP. He just pitched with runners on, not allowing many of them to score. For the Phillies, he actually did worse. He went 7-4, but with a 3.39 ERA and 74 K's in 12 starts and 79.2 IP. But, he was dominant in the postseason. In 5 postseason starts, he went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA, including 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA against the Yankees in the World Series. He struck out 33 and walked only 6 in 40.1 IP. Still, after the season, he was traded to the Mariners shortly when the Phillies acquired Roy Halladay. In '09 for the Mariners, he regained his '08 form. After missing the first month of the season with an abdominal strain, he went 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 89 K's in 13 starts and 103.2 IP. But, the most amazing stat of all was that he walked just 6 batters. Six! His K/BB ratio was 14.83, which would be the best ever for a full season. (His current K/BB ratio of 13.42 between the Mariners and Rangers would still be the best ever by a wide margin.) He was then traded to the Rangers on July 9th, and he's been a complete disaster. He has gone just 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA and 72 K's in 11 starts and 80.2 IP. He has allowed 85 hits, over a hit per inning, but he has walked just 6 batters. But, the Rangers might have found the reason Lee has struggled: lower back inflamation. Lee got an injection and will try to get back on track against the Yankees tomorrow.

Lee has had good years and bad years, but at the end of the day he has a 100-60 career record with a 3.89 ERA. He has gone from demoted to the minor leagues to AL Cy Young and from a dominant pitcher for Seattle to a disaster for Texas. He has been good overall, but he has shown inconsistency. Would you want to commit to this guy for 5 years? The Yankees and the other bidders when Lee will be a free agent this offseason will have to make that decision.

Should the Yankees have traded for Lee?

Just looking at this title of this post, you're wondering what the heck I'll walking about. Didn't the Mariners call off the trade, not the Yankees? Let me explain. The trade was all but settled. Cliff Lee to the Yanks for minor leaguers Jesus Montero, a catcher, David Adams, a 2nd baseman, and Zach McAllister, a RHP. Apparently, that deal fell through because Adams is on the 7-day DL with a high ankle sprain and the Mariners were worried. The Yankees offered to switch Adams out for a different prospect (I would guess minor league INF Eduardo Nunez), but the Mariners wanted another pitching prospect also (Ivan Nova or Jeremy Bleich) and the price was too high. The Yankees pulled out of the trade. Then, the Rangers swooped in and acquired Lee and reliever Mark Lowe in exchange for Justin Smoak, a rookie 1st baseman, and minor league RHP's Josh Lueke and RHP Blake Beavan, along with minor league 2nd baseman Matthew Lawson.

Let's look at the players that the Yankee would have traded to Seattle for Lee. Should they pulled the trigger on the trade?

Lee has been ridiculous this year, going 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 89 K's in 13 starts and 103.2 IP. He has walked just 6 batters, and has 5 complete games including 1 shutout. He has been incredible.

Montero is hitting .253 at Triple-A Scranton with 19 doubles, 6 homers, 35 RBI, and a .329 OBP in 77 games. In '09, he hit .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. His '09 season solidified him as a top prospect. In fact, Montero was considered the top prospect in the Yankees' system enering this year by Baseball America. Montero, just 20 years old, is not considered to have a future as a catcher in the big leagues. By staying within the Yankee system, he remains the Yankees' DH of the future if nothing else.

Adams is hitting .309 at Double-A Trenton with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, 5 SB, and a .393 OBP in 39 games. In '09, Adams hit .286 with 40 doubles, 7 homers, 75 RBI, 8 triples, 11 SB, and a .373 OBP in 132 games between Low-A Charleston and High-A Trenton. That season solidified Adams as the Yankees' 22nd best prospect in their system entering this year according to Baseball America. Adams, a third round pick by the Yankees in '08, is considered to be a decent defender. Adams was definitely an X-factor in this trade because after the Mariners made the Yankees pull him out of the trade because of his injury, the Mariners asked for 2 players to replace him. Adams, already 23 years old, doesn't seem to be young enough to have a future as a starter in the Yankee infield.

McAllister has gone 7-5 at Triple-A Scranton with a 4.45 ERA and 57 K's in 17 starts and 95 IP. He was the Yankees 5th rated prospect by Baseball America entering this year after going 7-5 with a 2.23 ERA and 96 K's in 22 starts and 121 IP for Double-A Trenton in '09. McAllister, 22 years old, was a 3rd round draft pick out of high school in '06. He certainly has a chance for a spot in the Yankee rotation at some point.

Nunez is hitting .304 at Triple-A Scranton, with 19 doubles, 3 homers, 40 RBI, 18 SB, and a .352 OBP in 86 games. He was the Yankees' 14th best prospect by Baseball America entering this year after hitting .322 with 26 doubles, 9 homers, 55 RBI, 19 SB, and a .349 OBP in 123 games for Double-A Trenton in '09. Nunez, who recently turned 23, is a solid defender who has played mostly SS in the minors. He also has experience at 2nd base and 3rd base. Nunez is probably going to be a utility player for the Yankees in a year or two.

Nova has gone 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 73 K's in 16 starts and 97.2 IP for Triple-A Scranton. In a brief major league call-up, he made 2 relief appearances, giving up no runs on 4 hits in 3 IP. He was the Yankees' 16th best prospect entering this year by Baseball America after going 6-8 with a 3.68 ERA and 90 K's in 24 starts and 139.1 IP between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton. He will also be competing for the Yankee rotation in a year or two.

Bleich, a 23 year old lefty, has gone 3-2 at Double-A Trenton this year, with a 4.79 ERA and 26 K's in 8 starts and 41.1 IP. He was the Yankees' 9th best prospect entering this year by Baseball America after going 9-10 with a 4.86 ERA and 116 K's in 27 starts and 144.1 IP between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. He has good stuff, but has had some control problems. He seems at least 3 years away from having any impact in the majors.

So, in the original trade, the Yankees would have given up their best, 5th best, and 22nd best prospects in exchange for a perennial Cy Young candidate. That sounds like a fair trade. But, when you take out the 22nd prospect and put in the 14th best prospect and the 9th or 16th best prospect, it would seem that the Yankees would be giving away too much. Maybe pulling out of the trade could be a good move by the Yankees. They can keep their prospects and sign Lee this offseason.