One of the biggest things coming in the 2011 offseason is the impending free agency of Albert Pujols. He looks to command the biggest contract in MLB history, even corralling 30 million dollars a year. But who will pay him that kind of money? Let's go through the teams and see what the odds are for each team signing Pujols.
No chance
30. Rays
The Rays need help at first base, but considering they couldn't re-sign Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena, how in the world would they sign Pujols? Even if they have a small payroll and there's no chance they'll commit over half their 2012 salary to one player. There's a zero chance Pujols goes to the Rays.
Odds: 1 in 4,000,000,000
29. Royals
The Royals have a tiny payroll and Eric Hosmer as their first baseman of the future. The Royals don't need to make a big splash in free agency with the top prospects coming, and even if they did, they don't have anywhere near the money to sign Pujols. Pujols will not be going across the state of Missouri to Kansas City in 2012.
Odds: 1 in 1,000,000,000
28. Pirates
When was the last time the Pirates signed a big free agent? They just don't have the payroll. Lyle Overbay (arguably their biggest free agent signing of the 2010 offseason) isn't the long-term answer at first base, but the Pirates will have to look to the farm system or lower-tier free agents because Pujols will not be a Pirate (although I could see the headline now: "Pujols a Pirate").
Odds: 1 in 90,000,000
27. Blue Jays
The Jays couldn't even sign their own big impending free agent, Roy Halladay. How in the world would they sign Pujols?
Odds: 1 in 75,000,000
26. Diamondbacks
They haven't had a big signing in quite a while. Prospect Brandon Allen is the first baseman is the future, and he's certainly not a sure thing, and also the D-backs made a run at Paul Konerko, but they just don't have anywhere near enough money to make a run at Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 60,000,000
25. Brewers
If the Brewers had the money to sign Pujols, they would have extended Prince Fielder. Also, they just signed Ryan Braun to a huge deal.
Odds: 1 in 50,000,000
24. Padres
Ditto Brewers, but for Adrian Gonzalez. They haven't signed anybody to a big extension, but they have never had a lot of money to begin with.
Odds: 1 in 45,000,000
23. Reds
The Reds have a player they can build around in Joey Votto at first base, and they're a small-market team anyway.
Odds: 1 in 35,000,000
22. Indians
The Indians are playing out of their mind right now and you would think that they just need to continue adding fuel to the fire to keep contending. But, they have a good combination of veterans and young players right now, and they would certainly extend Grady Sizemore before signing Pujols. Not to mention that they don't have the money to sign Pujols anyway.
Odds: 1 in 20,000,000
21. Twins
The Twins have Justin Morneau at first base, and it's unlikely that they'll be able to afford another high-priced player.
Odds: 1 in 10,000,000
20. Giants
The Giants have Aubrey Huff and Brandon Belt, and we know they don't have 30 million dollars lying around.
Odds: 1 in 8,000,000
19. White Sox
The White Sox have some money, but they have both Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn. They're not signing Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 7,500,000
18. Mets
The Mets have had cash in the past, but we know that the Wilpons are cash-stricken and looking to add a minority owner. Even if they did somehow get the money, they'll be much more worried about signing Jose Reyes anyway. And of course, they have a promising player in Ike Davis at first base.
Odds: 1 in 5,000,000
17. Astros
They're getting a new owner, so you never no what their payroll would be, but they have Brett Wallace at first base, and the new owner wouldn't want to commit most of his payroll to Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 3,000,000
16. Athletics
The A's don't have the money, but I feel like Billy Beane could pull off a crazy sign-and-trade or something.
Odds: 1 in 2,500,000
15. Mariners
The Mariners have signed a couple of big free agents in recent years, but they don't appear to be contending anytime soon, and they have Justin Smoak, who should be manning first base for years to come.
Odds: 1 in 2,000,000
14. Marlins
The Marlins want to make a splash as they're moving into their new stadium, and they did spend a bit more money in the 2010 offseason, but 30 million dollars is a ton of money, and unless Pujols gives the Fish a "hometown discount" because they're the closest MLB team to the Dominican public, the Marlins won't be able to sign him.
Odds: 1 in 1,000,000
Probably not
13. Phillies
The entire baseball world is hoping that the Phillies don't scrape together enough pennies to sign Albert Pujols. I'm sure Ryan Howard is hoping too.
Odds: 1 in 10,000
12. Braves
The Braves have Freddie Freeman at first, and they don't have limitless funds, but they've made runs at big players in recent years.
Odds: 1 in 7,500
11. Tigers
Maybe the Tigers have money, but they have Miguel Cabrera, and they would have to catch Victor Martinez more often to fit in Pujols at DH. They'd also have to convince Pujols to play left field on an irregular basis (he did play most of 2003 in left field, but he hasn't played there since).
Odds: 1 in 5,000
10. Rockies
The Rockies have extended Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Is there any money left?
Odds: 1 in 3,500
9. Angels
The Angels made runs at Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford this past offseason, but failed to sign either of them, and they traded for the pricey Vernon Wells. The Angels don't have quite enough money to sign Pujols, and they also have two promising first baseman in Kendrys Morales and Mark Trumbo.
Odds: 1 in 2000
9. Red Sox
The Red Sox might have the money, but with Adrian Gonzalez at third, David Ortiz at DH, and even Carl Crawford in left field, the Red Sox would have to convince Pujols to play right field. Pujols did play 39 games there in 2001, but he has had some elbow problems since, and playing right field could kill his elbow and endanger his career. It's not impossible, but it's certainly a long-shot.
Odds: 1 in 1000
Don't completely count them out
7. Dodgers
They've spent quite a bit of money in the past. If they ever get that FOX TV deal signed, and their ownership situation resolved you never know what will happen, but the chances are certainly against Pujols being a Dodger.
Odds: 1 in 100
6. Orioles
The Orioles are starting to spend some money, and Derrek Lee was signed to just a one-year contract, but 30 million dollars is seemingly too much.
Odds: 1 in 75
5. Rangers
The Rangers have been spending money lately, but they already have a ton of money on the books and a logjam of players playing first base/DH including Mike Napoli and Michael Young. They theoretically could sign Pujols, but they probably will decide not to.
Odds: 1 in 60
4. Nationals
The Nats signed Jason Werth this past offseason and Adam LaRoche is coming off the books after the season, so you never know for sure.
Odds: 1 in 40
3. Yankees
You may think I'm crazy, but Pujols going to the Yankees is a semi-realistic possibility. It would be the same of situation as the Red Sox above with Mark Teixeira at first base, but the Yankees would certainly move Brett Gardner to give Pujols time in left field, and if they could sign Pujols, they would certainly be willing to trade Jesus Montero to give him time at DH as well.
Odds: 1 in 20
Contenders
2. Cubs
The Cubs have new owners, the Ricketts, and are dying to make Pujols a part of their team. They might actually be able to offer Pujols a 10 year, 300 million dollar contract. But would Pujols leave St. Louis?
Odds: 2 in 5
1. Cardinals
The Cardinals have been Pujols' team the past 11 years. They won a championship with him and have built a solid team around him. Why should he leave? But will the Cardinals offer him the 30 million a year?
Odds: 12 in 25
Results
Cardinals- 48% chance of re-signing Pujols
Cubs- 40% chance of signing Pujols
Yankees- 5% chance of signing Pujols
Nationals- 2.5% chance of signing Pujols
Rangers- 1.7% chance of signing Pujols
The field- 2.7% chance of signing Pujols
It's Cubs-Cardinals for the rights to have Pujols with the Yankees, Nationals, and Rangers having outside chances and every other team barely being involved if part of the picture at all. This should be interesting.
Showing posts with label Pirates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pirates. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
2011 MLB Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates
Do the Pirates have any hope of making the playoffs in '10? No. Do they have any chance of finishing .500 or better? No. So, how will they do? How bad will they be? Let's find out.
Catcher:
Chris Snyder or Ryan Doumit? Take your pick. Neither? The Pirates sure wish that was a choice. Snyder recently turned 30 and owns a .229 career BA. Doumit turns 30 on April 3rd and owns a .268 BA. In 2010, Snyder hit .207 with 9 doubles, 15 homers, 48 RBI, and a .320 OBP in 105 games between the D-backs and Pirates. Doumit hit 251 with 22 doubles, 13 homers, 45 RBI, and a .331 OBP in 124 games or the Pirates. Snyder posted a .995 Fld% at catcher with a 23% CS% and 6 passed balls. Doumit posted a .990 Fld% at catcher with just a 12% CS%, and 9 passed balls and just a .929 Fld% in right field. Doumit is a better hitter, while Snyder is a much better defender. Could they platoon? Snyder is a righty hitter while Doumit is a switch hitter. Snyder has hit .220 versus righties compared to .248 versus lefties in his career. Doumit has hit .272 versus righties compared to .256 versus lefties. I guess Snyder could start against lefties and Doumit against righites. Either way, they're not that great. It's not like the Jeff Mathis-Mike Napoli platoon where Mathis was a great defender and Napoli was a great hitter. Snyder might be a great defender, but Doumit is just a decent hitter himself. The Pirates certainly have a bad situation at catcher.
First base:
34 year old Lyle Overbay, signed this offseason to a one-year, 5 million dollar contract, is lined up to be the Pirates' first baseman in 2011. Overbay had a decent year for the Blue Jays in 2010, hitting .243 with 37 doubles, 20 homers, 67 RBI, and a .329 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .996 Fld% at first base. He had a .285 BAbip in '10, so he pretty much is what he is at this point of his career. Overbay will be backed up by Steven Pearce. Pearce, who will turn 28 in April, hit .276 in the majors in '10 with 2 doubles, 0 homers, 5 RBI, and a .395 OBP in 15 major league games. He made one error at first base in 86 chances, which amounted to a below-average .988 Fld%, not that it makes a huge difference. In the minors, between High-A (2 games) and Triple-A (35 games), Pearce hit .331 with 16 doubles, 3 homers, 17 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and a .428 OBP. He missed time with several injuries, including a knee injury that required surgery that ended his season in August. The Pirates have two players who can play first base besides Overbay who will definitely be on the roster, Garrett Jones and Matt Diaz, but Jones will start in right field and Diaz in the primary backup in the outfield. So, based on that, Pearce has a chance to make the roster with a good spring training. We'll have to see what happens. Overbay will be a pretty good first baseman in 2011 for the Pirates.
Second base:
25 year old Neil Walker had a great rookie season, hitting .296 with 29 doubles, 12 homers, 66 RBI, and a .349 OBP in 110 games. Walker had a .340 BAbip, which would normally be very worrying, but he had a 23% LD% (league-average 19%), and a 71% IP% (league average 69%), so he should be pretty much fine. He posted a .985 Fld% defensively at second base (league average .984), albeit with below-average range. Walker was good enough to finish 5th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Walker's backup will be 26 year old Josh Rodriguez. Rodriguez, the first overall pick in the 2010 Rule 5 draft, spent all of 2010 in the minors, hitting .297 between Double-A (21 games) and Triple-A (86 games) with 30 doubles, 13 homers, 57 RBI, 6 stolen bases, and a .378 OBP. Defensively, he played second base, third base, shortstop, centerfield, right field, and left field, so he'll play all over the place as a utility player for the Pirates. He's a below-average fielder across the board, but he's best at second base (.976 career Fld%). He's a pretty good hitter, so as long as he survives defensively, he'll be a good backup. Walker is a good second baseman for the Pirates.
Third base:
Pedro Alvarez, 24, also had a good rookie season for the Pirates, hitting .256 with 21 doubles, 16 homers, 64 RBI, and a .326 OBPin 95 games. Between the minors and majors he hit 29 homers and drove in 117 runs. It all sounds good, right? Well, there are a couple of worrying factors. Alvarez needed a .341 BAbip to his .256. He had a crazy 14.8 HR/FB. And, he posted just a 55 IP% and a 14% LD% while striking out 30.8% of the time (league average 18.5%). Alvarez can obviously improve as a hitter, but if his BAbip and HR/FB return to neutral while his IP% and LD% remain the same, Alvarez could conceivably hit .200 with just 15 homers for a full season. But, considering that Alvarez hit 40 homers in 192 minor league games, you have to think that either a) he just hits the ball in a way that more of his fly balls go for home runs and/or b) he's a good enough hitter to adjust. He posted just a .938 Fld% defensively, but he showed outstanding range. He has tremendous talent. He'll be backed up by Rodriguez. Alvarez is a good talent, and hopefully he'll make strides in 2011.
Shortstop:
Ronny Cedeno, who recently turned 28, had a pretty terrible year in 2010, hitting .256 with 29 doubles, 8 homers, 38 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and just a .293 OBP in 139 games. He had a .315 BAbip, so it's not like he was unlucky, but he had just a 13% LD%. He walked just 4.6% of his plate appearances, compared to the league average of 8.5%. Cedeno is essentially a singles hitter who doesn't walk. Defensively, he was slightly below-average with a .969 Fld%, but he showed above-average range. He's a decent player at best. He'll be backed up by Rodriguez. Cedeno is nothing more than a halfway decent player for the Pirates.
Left field:
Tabata was another solid rookie for the Pirates. The 22 year old hit .299 with 21 doubles, 4 homers, 35 RBI, 19 stolen bases, and a .346 OBP in 102 games. He did have a .339 BAbip and a 17% LD%, but he had a great 78% IP% and a 3.3 HR/FB. When everything evens out, he'll still prove to be a good hitter. He was outstanding defensively in left field posting a .995 Fld% with great range and 5 outfield assists. He finished 8th in the Rookie of the Year voting. Tabata is a good player. He'll be backed up by Matt Diaz , John Bowker, and Rodriguez. Matt Diaz hit .250 for the Braves in '10 with 17 doubles, 7 homers, 31 RBI, and a .302 OBP in 84 games. He isn't very good defensively, considering he posted a below-average .979 Fld% and below-average range in left field in '10 (he has a .981 career Fld% in right field and 1.000 in 2 games in centerfield). He's a decent backup. Bowker hit .219 in '10 with 8 doubles, 5 homers, 21 RBI, and a .281 OBP in 67 games between the Giants and Pirates. He posted a .985 Fld% in the outfield. He's good enough to be a 5th outfielder. Jose Tabata is another budding young star for the Pirates.
Centerfield:
24 year old star Andrew McCutchen had a great season for the Pirates, hitting .286 with 35 doubles, 16 homers, 56 RBI, 94 runs, 33 stolen bases, and a .365 OBP in 154 games. He had a .311 BAbip, so he wasn't overly lucky. He's for real. He had a league-average .987 Fld%, but he showed great range. He'll be backed up by Diaz Bowker, and Rodriguez, McCutchen is a really great player and the only real established star on the Pirates.
Right field:
29 year old Garrett Jones proved to be a good RBI guy for the Pirates in '10, hitting .247 with 34 doubles, 21 homers, 86 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and a .306 OBP in 158 games. He did this all despite a .274 BAbip, and he still had a decent 8.1 BB% despite his .306 OBP, so as his BAbip rebounds, his OBP will in addition to his BA. He's a solid player. He posted a bad .971 Fld% in right field, but he showed great range, so maybe that will improve in 2011. Garrett Jones is a good player for the Pirates.
Starting rotation:
26 year old James McDonald was solid in 11 starts for the Pirates (he had been 0-1 with an 8.22 ERA in 4 appearances for the Dodgers), going 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA, and 61 K's compared to 24 walks in 64 IP. He allowed 59 hits, 8.3 per 9, and 3 homers, a great ratio of 0.4 per 9. McDonald was particularly great in September, going 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in 6 starts. McDonald also did all this while allowing a .320 BAbip, although he did allow just a 2.9% HR/FB. When everything evens out, McDonald will probably do slightly better, but a few more of his earned runs will come from homers. McDonald is an awful hitter, considering he hit just .050 in '10 with no RBI and 1 sac bunt. McDonald is a pretty good pitcher, and he is considered to be the de facto ace of the Pirates.
Arbitration winner Ross Ohlendorf went through a bizarre season in 2010. The 28 year old right-hander went just 1-11, but with a 4.07 ERA, 79 K's, and 44 walks in 21 starts and 108.1 IP. He allowed 106 hits, an 8.8 H/9, and 12 homers, a 1.2 HR/9. He was a decent pitcher. Ohlendorf missed time with a shoulder injury that ended his season. It's not like he was lucky or unlucky- he had a .289 BAbip, a 6.3% HR/FB, and a 19% LD%. He's not a good pitcher, but he might be good enough to place second among Pirates starting pitchers in ERA for years to come. Ohlendorf certainly wasn't decent with the bat, hitting .077 with no RBI and 2 sac bunts. Ohlendorf is just a decent pitcher for the Pirates.
Lefty Paul Maholm, who will turn 29 in June, has been a Pirate his whole career. He's had his good moments (10 wins in 2007, 9-9 record, 3.71 ERA, 206.1 IP in '08), and his bad moments, such as his 2010 season. He went 9-15 with a 5.10 ERA, and 102 K's compared to 62 walks in 32 starts and 185.1 IP. His main problem was hits allowed. He allowed 15 homers, a fine ratio of 0.7 per 9, but 228 hits, which amounts to an 11.1 H/9. But, that was because of a .332 BAbip despite an above-average ground ball rate (1.04 GB/FB, 1.56 GO/AO) and a league-average 19% LD%. It was the same story for Maholm in 2009, when he posted a 4.44 ERA. In his outstanding 2008, Maholm had a .294 BAbip. He even had an 8.0% HR/FB that season (compared to 5.2% in '09 and 5.1% in '10), although his 17% LD% was better than his 19% LD% in both '09 and '10. Could Maholm possibly return to his 3.71 ERA that year? I would seriously doubt it, considering Walker and Alvarez aren't good defensively at key defensive positions, but hey, you never know. Maholm's ERA will certainly rebound back into the mid-4.00's in 2011 if not better. Accordingly, Bill James projects a 4.52 ERA for him. He's certainly a decent pitcher. With the bat, Maholm is pretty bad, 'boasting' a .089 BA, no RBI, and 7 sac bunts. Maholm is a decent pitcher for the Pirates.
Hoping to shore up their pitching staff, the Pirates signed a pitcher from the Padres to a two-year, 6 million dollar contract. Unfortunately, they signed Kevin Correia. You may be surprised at Correia's stats while pitching half of his games at Petco Park. He went 10-10 with a terrible 5.40 ERA that was worse than AJ Burnett, 115 K's, and 64 walks in 26 starts, 2 RA's, and 145 IP. He allowed 152 hits, a 9.4 H/9, and 20 homers, a 1.2 HR/9. He was downright awful. Neutralized, he managed a 6.53 ERA. Oh my gosh. Were the Pirates paying any attention? In 2010, he had a .306 BAbip, compared to .298 in 2009, when he had a 3.91 ERA (4.62 neutralized). His LD% remained exactly the same at 21%. The only major difference was in HR/FB, 5.6% in '09 compared to 9.5% in '10. Still, that shouldn't raise his ERA by 1.49! There's absolutely no reason to believe Correia will rebound in 2011. At least he's a decent hitting pitcher, considering he hit .136 in '10 with 5 RBI and 6 sac bunts. Correia was a terrible signing for the Pirates, and they'll be lucky if he posts a 5.00 ERA in '11.
There are two candidates for the final spot in the Pirates' rotation: Charlie Morton and Scott Olsen.
Morton, a 27 year old right-hander, seems to be exactly what you'd expect from a Pirates pitcher. Brace yourself for his 2010 stats: 2-12 record, 7.57 ERA, 59 K's, 26 walks, 112 hits allowed (12.7 H/9), and 15 homers allowed (1.7 HR/9) in 17 starts and 79.2 IP (he pitched to a 3.82 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts and 80 IP). Oh my gosh. He managed a -2.4 WAR for the Pirates. That takes some skill (or lack thereof). He even had a total -2.7 WAR after a -0.3 offensive WAR (.038 BA, 0 RBI, 1 sac bunt). But, you know what's funny? Morton had a decent 4.55 ERA in 18 starts in 2009. What the heck happened? Actually, exactly what you'd expect: an increase in BAbip, HR/FB, and LD%. In 2009, Morton had a .316 BAbip against him. After looking at that, you would think that maybe his BAbip would return to neutral and he'd post maybe a 4.35 ERA in '10 with average luck. Of course, that didn't happen. Instead, his BAbip hit rock-bottom, ballooning to .361. That explains his 12.7 H/9 in '10 compared to 9.5 in '09. And why did that happen? Because of an increase in LD%. Morton had a good 17% LD% in 2009, but a terrible 22% LD% in '10. You have to hope that Morton will be able to fix that in 2011 (presumably by keeping the ball away from the middle of the plate). Of course though, that wasn't his only problem. He allowed a 10.7 HR/FB (further enhancing my hypothesis that he allowed too many hittable pitches). There's a good amount of luck involved with HR/FB (there's a 1 inch [or less] difference on the bat between a homer and a fly ball to the track), but I feel like the increase in LD% coupled with his increase in HR/FB has to be because of too many hittable pitches allowed. Looking at the Pitch F/X data at http://brooksbaseball.net, it's no hypothesis, I'm right (I did only look at a sample of games). He did improve in September, leading to a 4.09 ERA, 0.5 HR/9, and a 21% LD% compared to a 10.03 ERA, a 2.5 HR/9, and a 23 LD% the rest of the season (his BAbip decreased to .337 from .376 ). Morton was straightened out after coming back to the minors (although his first start back in late August was a complete disaster, considering he allowed 7 ER in 3.1 IP). Maybe Morton won't post a low-4.00's ERA in 2011, but you have to be encouraged by his September stats. If the Pirates have the guts to look past his 7.57 ERA in '10, Morton should certainly be considered for the 5th starter job.
It's not as though Olsen's 2010 stats blew Morton out of the water. Olsen was certainly better, but better is a comparative word, and it's certainly not hard to be better than a 7.57 ERA. Even a pitcher with a 7.56 ERA would be better than Morton. Anyway, Olsen, a lefty, had a pretty bad year for the Nats in '10, going 4-8 with a 5.56 ERA, 53 K's, and 27 walks in 15 starts, 2 RA's, and 81 IP. He allowed 93 hits, a 10.3 H/9, and 10 homers, a 1.1 HR/9. Olsen's last decent season was 2008, when he went 8-11 with 4.20 ERA in 33 starts for the Marlins. He went 2-4 with a 6.03 ERA in 11 starts for the Nats in 2009. How good is Olsen, really? Olsen had a .317 BAbip is '10, compared to a .348 in 2009 and .261 in 2008. His LD% over that time frame were 20% in 2010, 23% in 2009 and 19% in 2008. What those stats tell us is that Olsen didn't allow a 10.4 H/9 because of a bad line drive rate, so he was a bit unlucky, but even with a 9.0 H/9, how much better would his ERA have been? 5.00? He also had a below-average 7.1 HR/FB in '10, so that's not what made him so bad in 2010! Olsen isn't a good pitcher. He needed a .261 BAbip to post a 4.20 ERA in '10, and add .40 to any pitcher's BAbip, and his ERA will certainly go up at least half a run. If his BAbip and HR/FB are neutral in 2010, I would expect something like a 4.70 ERA if he wins the 5th starter job. Olsen doesn't impress with the bat either, considering he hit just .083 in '10 with no RBI and 4 sac bunts. At least he's only signed for one year, and for just $550,000 (there's a 4 million dollar team option in 2012). Olsen might be able to be a decent 5th starter for the Pirates if given the chance.
We'll have to see how they perform in Spring Training, but I feel like Morton has the edge. He has the potential to be an effective starter with average luck while Olsen, with average luck, would be worse than him. But, Morton still has options left, and Olsen is signed to a major league contract. Morton will need an exceptional spring training to take the job from Olsen to begin the year. Olsen has made just 6 professional relief appearances, so it's unclear whether he could adapt to being a long reliever. I feel like somehow, some way, Charlie Morton will end up as the Pirates' 5th starter, if not out of spring training then at some point during the year. He's just a better pitcher. It's unfortunate that due to bad luck he's never gotten to prove that.
Bullpen:
I usually make the position of closer its own category, but although Joel Hanrahan has been named the closer over Evan Meek to begin the year, it's unclear whether he will retain that role. There's certainly more uncertainty for the Pirates at closer than for your average team.
Withholding his ERA for a second, Hanrahan, a 29 year old right-hander, seemed to have a great year based on several numbers. He went 4-1 with 100 K's, an impressive out of the bullpen and which amounted to a 12.9 K/9, 26 walks, which came out to a 3.4 BB/9, a 3.85 K/BB (strikeout to walk) ratio, 58 hits allowed, a 7.5 H/9, and 6 homers, a decent 0.8 HR/9, 18 holds, and 6 saves in 72 RA's and 69.2 IP. He sounds like an awfully good pitcher. What would you think his ERA was? At least under 3.00, right? In reality, Hanrahan had a 3.62 ERA. I guess you have to point to his homer rate as the reason he posted his 3.62 ERA, but otherwise, he was downright incredible. He allowed a 7.5 H/9 despite a .329 BAbip. The .329 BAbip was just Hanrahan being unlucky because he had an 18% LD%. Hanrahan allowed just a 59% IP%, 10% lower than the MLB average of 69%, which is what you would think made him so good. He allowed his 0.8 HR/9 because of a 7.5% HR/FB that was right around the league average of 7.7%. He still sounds like a pitcher who should have posted an ERA under 3.00 to me. Maybe if his BAbip goes down to .300, that would be enough to get him to a high 2.00's ERA. Hanrahan maybe gives up a few too many homers to be a top-flight closer, but he seems like he would do a decent job in the role, at least getting 20 saves.
Meek, who will turn 28 in May, would seem like a great closer candidate if I withhold a different stat for a moment. Meek went 5-4 with a 2.14 ERA, 31 walks, a 3.5 BB/9, 53 hits allowed, which comes out to a great 6.0 H/9, 5 homers, which is good for a 0.6 HR/9, 15 holds, and 4 saves in 70 RA's and 80 IP. Of course, I omitted strikeouts. Meek's 70 K's amounted to a 7.9 K/9, which is fine, but not great at all. How was he so effective without striking so many guys out? The reason was that he had just a .226 BAbip against him in '10. But, it certainly wasn't purely out of luck. Meek allowed just a 15% LD%, and he allowed quite a few ground balls, posting a 1.29 GB/FB ratio and a 1.93 GO/AO ratio. Meek just doesn't allow many hard-hit balls. Going along with that, Meek allowed a slightly-below average 6.5% HR/FB, close enough to neutral to make me think that Meek just didn't allow many hard-hit balls to the outfield, either. Meek gets around the relatively low strikeout rate by not allowing solid contact. He's certainly a good pitcher.
Hanrahan is more of a strikeout pitcher than Meek, but Meek allows very few hard-hit balls, similar to most closers. Hanrahan seems like he could be a decent closer, but Meek could be a very good closer, albeit unorthodox because of his somewhat low strikeout rate. Both of them could be effective closers, but considering that Meek allows quite a less homers than Hanrahan and is a year younger than him, he'll be the better closer long term. I would expect Hanrahan to have a decent start as the Pirates' closer in '11, but after several blown saves because of long home runs, Meek takes over and pitches pretty well in the role. The loser for the job should be an effective setup man.
28 year old right-hander Chris Resop's 2010 stats weren't anything special. He went 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA, 26 K's, 13 walks, and 5 holds in 23 RA's and 21 IP between the Braves and Pirates. But, he allowed 15 hits for a great 6.0 H/9, and just 1 homer for a 0.4 HR/9. He had no noticable flaw! It's not like Hanrahan where he had somewhat of a problem in terms of homers. What's going on here? Well, notice I said that he spent 2010 between the Braves and Pirates. He appeared in 1 RA for the Braves and 22 for the Pirates. He had a great 1.89 ERA for the Pirates. Clearly he had a great year for the Pirates, but how did he manage an overall ERA nearly 2.00 higher than his ERA with the Pirates if he made just one relief appearance for the Braves? Get ready for Resop's stats on the Braves: in 1 two-inning relief appearance, he allowed 5 hits, 5 runs, 5 earned runs, and 3 walks while striking out 2 batters. That comes out to a scary 22.50 ERA. Again, take out that one appearance and he has a 1.89 ERA. Just looking at these stats, you have to say that Resop is a very good reliever who just had the worst night of his life in a relief appearance for the Braves. Is that really the case? During that one appearance for the Braves, Resop was the most unlucky pitcher in baseball, allowing an unbelievable .556 BAbip, not too far off from being double the MLB average of .300. Wow. But, after that, he allowed just a .220 BAbip. His luck completely flipped. There's a good stat and a bad stat for Resop's time on the Pirates: he allowed just a 53% IP%, which is outstanding, but he allowed a 21% LD%. In terms of BAbip, Resop was certainly very lucky to allow a .220 BAbip on the Pirates despite a 21% LD%. Resop's BAbip should come back to earth in 2011, but if he keeps up that 53% IP% he should be fine. I doubt Resop will put up a sub-2.00 ERA for the Pirates in 2011, but he has a could chance of putting up a sub-3.00 ERA.
So far, I've mentioned three relievers for the Pirates, and all of them are pretty good. Will Chris Leroux continue the trend? Well, Leroux, who will turn 27 in April, didn't exactly put up the kind of numbers you want to see- in 23 RA's and 22.2 IP, he went 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA, 22 K's, 14 walks, 28 hits allowed (11.1 H/9), 1 homer allowed (0.4 HR/9), and 3 holds. He certainly didn't put up good stats. But, stats can certainly be deceiving (see Charlie Morton). Leroux allowed a crazy .397 BAbip. That's just unlucky for him, right? He'll be a decent pitcher when his BAbip returns to neutral in 2011, right? Leroux was certainly unlucky, but he did allow a 23% LD%. You can't like that. Compounding the problem is that Leroux allowed just a 3.3 HR/FB. At least he allowed a pretty good 65 IP%, but you still can't like Leroux very much. Unless he really improves his LD%, you have to expect at least a 4.50 ERA from Leroux (unless of course, he gets really lucky). Leroux isn't a good reliever, and it's not a good thing for the Pirates that he's going to be an important part of their bullpen, considering who I'm going to mention next.
Before I mentioned Leroux, maybe you could have argued that the Pirates are not that bad of a team. That have a decent offense, a defense that has shown great range and could improve mightily in 2011, a decent rotation, and a couple of pretty good relievers at the back end of the bullpen. But then, there was Leroux, and also there's Daniel McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, and Jose Ascanio, two of which will make the Pirates out of spring training. Even if you say that middle relievers are replaceable, that doesn't matter unless you can replace them, which the Pirates can't do right now.
McCutchen, a 28 year old right-hander, is exactly what you'd expect from a Pirates reliever. In 2010, he appeared in 28 games, 9 of which were starts, going 2-5 with a 6.12 ERA, 38 K's (just a 5.1 K/9), 28 walks (3.7 BB/9), 83 hits allowed (11.0 H/9), and 13 homers allowed (1.7 HR/9) in 67.2 IP. (He didn't record any holds. He had a 6.49 ERA as a starter and a 5.47 ERA as a reliever. He was just plain awful. You have to wonder how the heck he managed an 11.0 H/9 with a .303 BAbip and a 15% LD%. At least his 1.7 HR/9 was because of a 10.0 HR/FB. Still, come on! McCutchen is not a good pitcher at all. I'll be shocked if he posts a sub-5.00 ERA in '11.
I can't say Karstens was that bad in 2010. THe 28 year old righty went 3-10 with a 4.92 ERA, 72 K's, 27 walks, 146 hits allowed (10.7 H/9), and 21 homers allowed (1.5 HR/9) in 26 starts, 7 RA's and 122.2 IP. He actually was halfway decent as a starter, posting a 4.78 ERA, but allowing a 5.87 ERA as a reliever. Karsten is a 5th starter-type pitcher, but he has no place in the Pirates' rotation right now. Karstens 2011 stats as a starter are pretty much what he is with neutral luck. He allowed a .309 BAbip, so he was a little bit unlucky, but not too much at all. He allowed a good 17% LD%, but a 77% IP%. He did allow a 10.1 HR/FB, so at neutral he would probably post closer to a 1.0 HR/9. With a .300 BAbip and a 7.7 HR/9, maybe Karstens posts a 4.50 ERA. That's the best he could do. But, that would be as a starter. In his career, he has a 4.92 ERA as a starter, but a 5.63 ERA in relief. Karstens hasn't gotten comfortable pitching out of the bullpen, even after 39 career RA's. Unless he finally adjusts to the bullpen, expect Karstens to post an ERA in the 5.00's in '11, unless he's given a chance to start.
Ascanio, who will turn 26 in May, missed all of '10 with a torn labrum. He appeared in just 2 minor league relief appearances, posting a 0.00 ERA and 7 K's in 2 RA's and 3 IP. Ascanio last appeared in the majors in 2009, going 0-2 with a 4.00 ERA, 20 K's, 9 walks, and 1 hold in 16 RA's and 18 IP between the Cubs and Pirates. He allowed 22 hits, an 11.0 H/9, and 1 homer, a 0.5 HR/9. Those are pretty good stats. But, when you consider he had a crazy .412 BAbip, you better be amazed. He even had a great 15% LD% and he still had that .412 BAbip. Despite that, he still put up a 4.00 ERA. You have to impressed. He did allow a 3.8% HR/FB, so he was lucky in that regard, but he also allowed a good 59% IP%. If those were his 2010 numbers, I would expect big things from him in 2011. But, he was a pretty good reliever then, not necessarily now. Could he be a good reliever for the Pirates in 2011? We'll have to see if he's healthy in spring training. If healthy, Ascanio could be an effective reliever for the Pirates in 2011.
Overview:
Simply put, the Pirates are not a good team. But, they're not as bad as they were in 2010. Their young players are developing, and maybe in a couple years, when their top pitching prospects such as Jameson Taillon arrive in the majors, they will contend. Not in 2010, though. They're not that bad of an offensive team, but they're below-average defensively, their rotation is decent at best, their bullpen is filled with holes after Meek, Hanrahan, and Resop, and even among those three, they don't have a proven closer. They'll improve in 2011, but it's hard not to improve on their 105-loss 2010.
2010 record: 57-105
Prediction: 63-99, 6th in NL Central
The Pirates will contend if... most of the following things happen: either Snyder or Doumit steps up at catcher, Overbay puts up decent numbers, Walker, Alvarez, and Tabata continue to improve, Cedeno survives offensively, Jones drives in 100 runs, McCutchen goes 20-30 (20 homers, 30 stolen bases), McDonald puts up a 3.50 ERA over a full season, Maholm and Ohlendorf put up low-4.00's ERA, Correia posts a mid-4.00's ERA, the 5th starter (Morton or Olsen) puts up a sub-5.00 ERA, Hanrahan or Meek steps up as the closer, and the bullpen as a whole posts a sub-4.00 ERA.
Catcher:
Chris Snyder or Ryan Doumit? Take your pick. Neither? The Pirates sure wish that was a choice. Snyder recently turned 30 and owns a .229 career BA. Doumit turns 30 on April 3rd and owns a .268 BA. In 2010, Snyder hit .207 with 9 doubles, 15 homers, 48 RBI, and a .320 OBP in 105 games between the D-backs and Pirates. Doumit hit 251 with 22 doubles, 13 homers, 45 RBI, and a .331 OBP in 124 games or the Pirates. Snyder posted a .995 Fld% at catcher with a 23% CS% and 6 passed balls. Doumit posted a .990 Fld% at catcher with just a 12% CS%, and 9 passed balls and just a .929 Fld% in right field. Doumit is a better hitter, while Snyder is a much better defender. Could they platoon? Snyder is a righty hitter while Doumit is a switch hitter. Snyder has hit .220 versus righties compared to .248 versus lefties in his career. Doumit has hit .272 versus righties compared to .256 versus lefties. I guess Snyder could start against lefties and Doumit against righites. Either way, they're not that great. It's not like the Jeff Mathis-Mike Napoli platoon where Mathis was a great defender and Napoli was a great hitter. Snyder might be a great defender, but Doumit is just a decent hitter himself. The Pirates certainly have a bad situation at catcher.
First base:
34 year old Lyle Overbay, signed this offseason to a one-year, 5 million dollar contract, is lined up to be the Pirates' first baseman in 2011. Overbay had a decent year for the Blue Jays in 2010, hitting .243 with 37 doubles, 20 homers, 67 RBI, and a .329 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .996 Fld% at first base. He had a .285 BAbip in '10, so he pretty much is what he is at this point of his career. Overbay will be backed up by Steven Pearce. Pearce, who will turn 28 in April, hit .276 in the majors in '10 with 2 doubles, 0 homers, 5 RBI, and a .395 OBP in 15 major league games. He made one error at first base in 86 chances, which amounted to a below-average .988 Fld%, not that it makes a huge difference. In the minors, between High-A (2 games) and Triple-A (35 games), Pearce hit .331 with 16 doubles, 3 homers, 17 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and a .428 OBP. He missed time with several injuries, including a knee injury that required surgery that ended his season in August. The Pirates have two players who can play first base besides Overbay who will definitely be on the roster, Garrett Jones and Matt Diaz, but Jones will start in right field and Diaz in the primary backup in the outfield. So, based on that, Pearce has a chance to make the roster with a good spring training. We'll have to see what happens. Overbay will be a pretty good first baseman in 2011 for the Pirates.
Second base:
25 year old Neil Walker had a great rookie season, hitting .296 with 29 doubles, 12 homers, 66 RBI, and a .349 OBP in 110 games. Walker had a .340 BAbip, which would normally be very worrying, but he had a 23% LD% (league-average 19%), and a 71% IP% (league average 69%), so he should be pretty much fine. He posted a .985 Fld% defensively at second base (league average .984), albeit with below-average range. Walker was good enough to finish 5th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Walker's backup will be 26 year old Josh Rodriguez. Rodriguez, the first overall pick in the 2010 Rule 5 draft, spent all of 2010 in the minors, hitting .297 between Double-A (21 games) and Triple-A (86 games) with 30 doubles, 13 homers, 57 RBI, 6 stolen bases, and a .378 OBP. Defensively, he played second base, third base, shortstop, centerfield, right field, and left field, so he'll play all over the place as a utility player for the Pirates. He's a below-average fielder across the board, but he's best at second base (.976 career Fld%). He's a pretty good hitter, so as long as he survives defensively, he'll be a good backup. Walker is a good second baseman for the Pirates.
Third base:
Pedro Alvarez, 24, also had a good rookie season for the Pirates, hitting .256 with 21 doubles, 16 homers, 64 RBI, and a .326 OBPin 95 games. Between the minors and majors he hit 29 homers and drove in 117 runs. It all sounds good, right? Well, there are a couple of worrying factors. Alvarez needed a .341 BAbip to his .256. He had a crazy 14.8 HR/FB. And, he posted just a 55 IP% and a 14% LD% while striking out 30.8% of the time (league average 18.5%). Alvarez can obviously improve as a hitter, but if his BAbip and HR/FB return to neutral while his IP% and LD% remain the same, Alvarez could conceivably hit .200 with just 15 homers for a full season. But, considering that Alvarez hit 40 homers in 192 minor league games, you have to think that either a) he just hits the ball in a way that more of his fly balls go for home runs and/or b) he's a good enough hitter to adjust. He posted just a .938 Fld% defensively, but he showed outstanding range. He has tremendous talent. He'll be backed up by Rodriguez. Alvarez is a good talent, and hopefully he'll make strides in 2011.
Shortstop:
Ronny Cedeno, who recently turned 28, had a pretty terrible year in 2010, hitting .256 with 29 doubles, 8 homers, 38 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and just a .293 OBP in 139 games. He had a .315 BAbip, so it's not like he was unlucky, but he had just a 13% LD%. He walked just 4.6% of his plate appearances, compared to the league average of 8.5%. Cedeno is essentially a singles hitter who doesn't walk. Defensively, he was slightly below-average with a .969 Fld%, but he showed above-average range. He's a decent player at best. He'll be backed up by Rodriguez. Cedeno is nothing more than a halfway decent player for the Pirates.
Left field:
Tabata was another solid rookie for the Pirates. The 22 year old hit .299 with 21 doubles, 4 homers, 35 RBI, 19 stolen bases, and a .346 OBP in 102 games. He did have a .339 BAbip and a 17% LD%, but he had a great 78% IP% and a 3.3 HR/FB. When everything evens out, he'll still prove to be a good hitter. He was outstanding defensively in left field posting a .995 Fld% with great range and 5 outfield assists. He finished 8th in the Rookie of the Year voting. Tabata is a good player. He'll be backed up by Matt Diaz , John Bowker, and Rodriguez. Matt Diaz hit .250 for the Braves in '10 with 17 doubles, 7 homers, 31 RBI, and a .302 OBP in 84 games. He isn't very good defensively, considering he posted a below-average .979 Fld% and below-average range in left field in '10 (he has a .981 career Fld% in right field and 1.000 in 2 games in centerfield). He's a decent backup. Bowker hit .219 in '10 with 8 doubles, 5 homers, 21 RBI, and a .281 OBP in 67 games between the Giants and Pirates. He posted a .985 Fld% in the outfield. He's good enough to be a 5th outfielder. Jose Tabata is another budding young star for the Pirates.
Centerfield:
24 year old star Andrew McCutchen had a great season for the Pirates, hitting .286 with 35 doubles, 16 homers, 56 RBI, 94 runs, 33 stolen bases, and a .365 OBP in 154 games. He had a .311 BAbip, so he wasn't overly lucky. He's for real. He had a league-average .987 Fld%, but he showed great range. He'll be backed up by Diaz Bowker, and Rodriguez, McCutchen is a really great player and the only real established star on the Pirates.
Right field:
29 year old Garrett Jones proved to be a good RBI guy for the Pirates in '10, hitting .247 with 34 doubles, 21 homers, 86 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and a .306 OBP in 158 games. He did this all despite a .274 BAbip, and he still had a decent 8.1 BB% despite his .306 OBP, so as his BAbip rebounds, his OBP will in addition to his BA. He's a solid player. He posted a bad .971 Fld% in right field, but he showed great range, so maybe that will improve in 2011. Garrett Jones is a good player for the Pirates.
Starting rotation:
26 year old James McDonald was solid in 11 starts for the Pirates (he had been 0-1 with an 8.22 ERA in 4 appearances for the Dodgers), going 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA, and 61 K's compared to 24 walks in 64 IP. He allowed 59 hits, 8.3 per 9, and 3 homers, a great ratio of 0.4 per 9. McDonald was particularly great in September, going 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in 6 starts. McDonald also did all this while allowing a .320 BAbip, although he did allow just a 2.9% HR/FB. When everything evens out, McDonald will probably do slightly better, but a few more of his earned runs will come from homers. McDonald is an awful hitter, considering he hit just .050 in '10 with no RBI and 1 sac bunt. McDonald is a pretty good pitcher, and he is considered to be the de facto ace of the Pirates.
Arbitration winner Ross Ohlendorf went through a bizarre season in 2010. The 28 year old right-hander went just 1-11, but with a 4.07 ERA, 79 K's, and 44 walks in 21 starts and 108.1 IP. He allowed 106 hits, an 8.8 H/9, and 12 homers, a 1.2 HR/9. He was a decent pitcher. Ohlendorf missed time with a shoulder injury that ended his season. It's not like he was lucky or unlucky- he had a .289 BAbip, a 6.3% HR/FB, and a 19% LD%. He's not a good pitcher, but he might be good enough to place second among Pirates starting pitchers in ERA for years to come. Ohlendorf certainly wasn't decent with the bat, hitting .077 with no RBI and 2 sac bunts. Ohlendorf is just a decent pitcher for the Pirates.
Lefty Paul Maholm, who will turn 29 in June, has been a Pirate his whole career. He's had his good moments (10 wins in 2007, 9-9 record, 3.71 ERA, 206.1 IP in '08), and his bad moments, such as his 2010 season. He went 9-15 with a 5.10 ERA, and 102 K's compared to 62 walks in 32 starts and 185.1 IP. His main problem was hits allowed. He allowed 15 homers, a fine ratio of 0.7 per 9, but 228 hits, which amounts to an 11.1 H/9. But, that was because of a .332 BAbip despite an above-average ground ball rate (1.04 GB/FB, 1.56 GO/AO) and a league-average 19% LD%. It was the same story for Maholm in 2009, when he posted a 4.44 ERA. In his outstanding 2008, Maholm had a .294 BAbip. He even had an 8.0% HR/FB that season (compared to 5.2% in '09 and 5.1% in '10), although his 17% LD% was better than his 19% LD% in both '09 and '10. Could Maholm possibly return to his 3.71 ERA that year? I would seriously doubt it, considering Walker and Alvarez aren't good defensively at key defensive positions, but hey, you never know. Maholm's ERA will certainly rebound back into the mid-4.00's in 2011 if not better. Accordingly, Bill James projects a 4.52 ERA for him. He's certainly a decent pitcher. With the bat, Maholm is pretty bad, 'boasting' a .089 BA, no RBI, and 7 sac bunts. Maholm is a decent pitcher for the Pirates.
Hoping to shore up their pitching staff, the Pirates signed a pitcher from the Padres to a two-year, 6 million dollar contract. Unfortunately, they signed Kevin Correia. You may be surprised at Correia's stats while pitching half of his games at Petco Park. He went 10-10 with a terrible 5.40 ERA that was worse than AJ Burnett, 115 K's, and 64 walks in 26 starts, 2 RA's, and 145 IP. He allowed 152 hits, a 9.4 H/9, and 20 homers, a 1.2 HR/9. He was downright awful. Neutralized, he managed a 6.53 ERA. Oh my gosh. Were the Pirates paying any attention? In 2010, he had a .306 BAbip, compared to .298 in 2009, when he had a 3.91 ERA (4.62 neutralized). His LD% remained exactly the same at 21%. The only major difference was in HR/FB, 5.6% in '09 compared to 9.5% in '10. Still, that shouldn't raise his ERA by 1.49! There's absolutely no reason to believe Correia will rebound in 2011. At least he's a decent hitting pitcher, considering he hit .136 in '10 with 5 RBI and 6 sac bunts. Correia was a terrible signing for the Pirates, and they'll be lucky if he posts a 5.00 ERA in '11.
There are two candidates for the final spot in the Pirates' rotation: Charlie Morton and Scott Olsen.
Morton, a 27 year old right-hander, seems to be exactly what you'd expect from a Pirates pitcher. Brace yourself for his 2010 stats: 2-12 record, 7.57 ERA, 59 K's, 26 walks, 112 hits allowed (12.7 H/9), and 15 homers allowed (1.7 HR/9) in 17 starts and 79.2 IP (he pitched to a 3.82 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts and 80 IP). Oh my gosh. He managed a -2.4 WAR for the Pirates. That takes some skill (or lack thereof). He even had a total -2.7 WAR after a -0.3 offensive WAR (.038 BA, 0 RBI, 1 sac bunt). But, you know what's funny? Morton had a decent 4.55 ERA in 18 starts in 2009. What the heck happened? Actually, exactly what you'd expect: an increase in BAbip, HR/FB, and LD%. In 2009, Morton had a .316 BAbip against him. After looking at that, you would think that maybe his BAbip would return to neutral and he'd post maybe a 4.35 ERA in '10 with average luck. Of course, that didn't happen. Instead, his BAbip hit rock-bottom, ballooning to .361. That explains his 12.7 H/9 in '10 compared to 9.5 in '09. And why did that happen? Because of an increase in LD%. Morton had a good 17% LD% in 2009, but a terrible 22% LD% in '10. You have to hope that Morton will be able to fix that in 2011 (presumably by keeping the ball away from the middle of the plate). Of course though, that wasn't his only problem. He allowed a 10.7 HR/FB (further enhancing my hypothesis that he allowed too many hittable pitches). There's a good amount of luck involved with HR/FB (there's a 1 inch [or less] difference on the bat between a homer and a fly ball to the track), but I feel like the increase in LD% coupled with his increase in HR/FB has to be because of too many hittable pitches allowed. Looking at the Pitch F/X data at http://brooksbaseball.net, it's no hypothesis, I'm right (I did only look at a sample of games). He did improve in September, leading to a 4.09 ERA, 0.5 HR/9, and a 21% LD% compared to a 10.03 ERA, a 2.5 HR/9, and a 23 LD% the rest of the season (his BAbip decreased to .337 from .376 ). Morton was straightened out after coming back to the minors (although his first start back in late August was a complete disaster, considering he allowed 7 ER in 3.1 IP). Maybe Morton won't post a low-4.00's ERA in 2011, but you have to be encouraged by his September stats. If the Pirates have the guts to look past his 7.57 ERA in '10, Morton should certainly be considered for the 5th starter job.
It's not as though Olsen's 2010 stats blew Morton out of the water. Olsen was certainly better, but better is a comparative word, and it's certainly not hard to be better than a 7.57 ERA. Even a pitcher with a 7.56 ERA would be better than Morton. Anyway, Olsen, a lefty, had a pretty bad year for the Nats in '10, going 4-8 with a 5.56 ERA, 53 K's, and 27 walks in 15 starts, 2 RA's, and 81 IP. He allowed 93 hits, a 10.3 H/9, and 10 homers, a 1.1 HR/9. Olsen's last decent season was 2008, when he went 8-11 with 4.20 ERA in 33 starts for the Marlins. He went 2-4 with a 6.03 ERA in 11 starts for the Nats in 2009. How good is Olsen, really? Olsen had a .317 BAbip is '10, compared to a .348 in 2009 and .261 in 2008. His LD% over that time frame were 20% in 2010, 23% in 2009 and 19% in 2008. What those stats tell us is that Olsen didn't allow a 10.4 H/9 because of a bad line drive rate, so he was a bit unlucky, but even with a 9.0 H/9, how much better would his ERA have been? 5.00? He also had a below-average 7.1 HR/FB in '10, so that's not what made him so bad in 2010! Olsen isn't a good pitcher. He needed a .261 BAbip to post a 4.20 ERA in '10, and add .40 to any pitcher's BAbip, and his ERA will certainly go up at least half a run. If his BAbip and HR/FB are neutral in 2010, I would expect something like a 4.70 ERA if he wins the 5th starter job. Olsen doesn't impress with the bat either, considering he hit just .083 in '10 with no RBI and 4 sac bunts. At least he's only signed for one year, and for just $550,000 (there's a 4 million dollar team option in 2012). Olsen might be able to be a decent 5th starter for the Pirates if given the chance.
We'll have to see how they perform in Spring Training, but I feel like Morton has the edge. He has the potential to be an effective starter with average luck while Olsen, with average luck, would be worse than him. But, Morton still has options left, and Olsen is signed to a major league contract. Morton will need an exceptional spring training to take the job from Olsen to begin the year. Olsen has made just 6 professional relief appearances, so it's unclear whether he could adapt to being a long reliever. I feel like somehow, some way, Charlie Morton will end up as the Pirates' 5th starter, if not out of spring training then at some point during the year. He's just a better pitcher. It's unfortunate that due to bad luck he's never gotten to prove that.
Bullpen:
I usually make the position of closer its own category, but although Joel Hanrahan has been named the closer over Evan Meek to begin the year, it's unclear whether he will retain that role. There's certainly more uncertainty for the Pirates at closer than for your average team.
Withholding his ERA for a second, Hanrahan, a 29 year old right-hander, seemed to have a great year based on several numbers. He went 4-1 with 100 K's, an impressive out of the bullpen and which amounted to a 12.9 K/9, 26 walks, which came out to a 3.4 BB/9, a 3.85 K/BB (strikeout to walk) ratio, 58 hits allowed, a 7.5 H/9, and 6 homers, a decent 0.8 HR/9, 18 holds, and 6 saves in 72 RA's and 69.2 IP. He sounds like an awfully good pitcher. What would you think his ERA was? At least under 3.00, right? In reality, Hanrahan had a 3.62 ERA. I guess you have to point to his homer rate as the reason he posted his 3.62 ERA, but otherwise, he was downright incredible. He allowed a 7.5 H/9 despite a .329 BAbip. The .329 BAbip was just Hanrahan being unlucky because he had an 18% LD%. Hanrahan allowed just a 59% IP%, 10% lower than the MLB average of 69%, which is what you would think made him so good. He allowed his 0.8 HR/9 because of a 7.5% HR/FB that was right around the league average of 7.7%. He still sounds like a pitcher who should have posted an ERA under 3.00 to me. Maybe if his BAbip goes down to .300, that would be enough to get him to a high 2.00's ERA. Hanrahan maybe gives up a few too many homers to be a top-flight closer, but he seems like he would do a decent job in the role, at least getting 20 saves.
Meek, who will turn 28 in May, would seem like a great closer candidate if I withhold a different stat for a moment. Meek went 5-4 with a 2.14 ERA, 31 walks, a 3.5 BB/9, 53 hits allowed, which comes out to a great 6.0 H/9, 5 homers, which is good for a 0.6 HR/9, 15 holds, and 4 saves in 70 RA's and 80 IP. Of course, I omitted strikeouts. Meek's 70 K's amounted to a 7.9 K/9, which is fine, but not great at all. How was he so effective without striking so many guys out? The reason was that he had just a .226 BAbip against him in '10. But, it certainly wasn't purely out of luck. Meek allowed just a 15% LD%, and he allowed quite a few ground balls, posting a 1.29 GB/FB ratio and a 1.93 GO/AO ratio. Meek just doesn't allow many hard-hit balls. Going along with that, Meek allowed a slightly-below average 6.5% HR/FB, close enough to neutral to make me think that Meek just didn't allow many hard-hit balls to the outfield, either. Meek gets around the relatively low strikeout rate by not allowing solid contact. He's certainly a good pitcher.
Hanrahan is more of a strikeout pitcher than Meek, but Meek allows very few hard-hit balls, similar to most closers. Hanrahan seems like he could be a decent closer, but Meek could be a very good closer, albeit unorthodox because of his somewhat low strikeout rate. Both of them could be effective closers, but considering that Meek allows quite a less homers than Hanrahan and is a year younger than him, he'll be the better closer long term. I would expect Hanrahan to have a decent start as the Pirates' closer in '11, but after several blown saves because of long home runs, Meek takes over and pitches pretty well in the role. The loser for the job should be an effective setup man.
28 year old right-hander Chris Resop's 2010 stats weren't anything special. He went 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA, 26 K's, 13 walks, and 5 holds in 23 RA's and 21 IP between the Braves and Pirates. But, he allowed 15 hits for a great 6.0 H/9, and just 1 homer for a 0.4 HR/9. He had no noticable flaw! It's not like Hanrahan where he had somewhat of a problem in terms of homers. What's going on here? Well, notice I said that he spent 2010 between the Braves and Pirates. He appeared in 1 RA for the Braves and 22 for the Pirates. He had a great 1.89 ERA for the Pirates. Clearly he had a great year for the Pirates, but how did he manage an overall ERA nearly 2.00 higher than his ERA with the Pirates if he made just one relief appearance for the Braves? Get ready for Resop's stats on the Braves: in 1 two-inning relief appearance, he allowed 5 hits, 5 runs, 5 earned runs, and 3 walks while striking out 2 batters. That comes out to a scary 22.50 ERA. Again, take out that one appearance and he has a 1.89 ERA. Just looking at these stats, you have to say that Resop is a very good reliever who just had the worst night of his life in a relief appearance for the Braves. Is that really the case? During that one appearance for the Braves, Resop was the most unlucky pitcher in baseball, allowing an unbelievable .556 BAbip, not too far off from being double the MLB average of .300. Wow. But, after that, he allowed just a .220 BAbip. His luck completely flipped. There's a good stat and a bad stat for Resop's time on the Pirates: he allowed just a 53% IP%, which is outstanding, but he allowed a 21% LD%. In terms of BAbip, Resop was certainly very lucky to allow a .220 BAbip on the Pirates despite a 21% LD%. Resop's BAbip should come back to earth in 2011, but if he keeps up that 53% IP% he should be fine. I doubt Resop will put up a sub-2.00 ERA for the Pirates in 2011, but he has a could chance of putting up a sub-3.00 ERA.
So far, I've mentioned three relievers for the Pirates, and all of them are pretty good. Will Chris Leroux continue the trend? Well, Leroux, who will turn 27 in April, didn't exactly put up the kind of numbers you want to see- in 23 RA's and 22.2 IP, he went 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA, 22 K's, 14 walks, 28 hits allowed (11.1 H/9), 1 homer allowed (0.4 HR/9), and 3 holds. He certainly didn't put up good stats. But, stats can certainly be deceiving (see Charlie Morton). Leroux allowed a crazy .397 BAbip. That's just unlucky for him, right? He'll be a decent pitcher when his BAbip returns to neutral in 2011, right? Leroux was certainly unlucky, but he did allow a 23% LD%. You can't like that. Compounding the problem is that Leroux allowed just a 3.3 HR/FB. At least he allowed a pretty good 65 IP%, but you still can't like Leroux very much. Unless he really improves his LD%, you have to expect at least a 4.50 ERA from Leroux (unless of course, he gets really lucky). Leroux isn't a good reliever, and it's not a good thing for the Pirates that he's going to be an important part of their bullpen, considering who I'm going to mention next.
Before I mentioned Leroux, maybe you could have argued that the Pirates are not that bad of a team. That have a decent offense, a defense that has shown great range and could improve mightily in 2011, a decent rotation, and a couple of pretty good relievers at the back end of the bullpen. But then, there was Leroux, and also there's Daniel McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, and Jose Ascanio, two of which will make the Pirates out of spring training. Even if you say that middle relievers are replaceable, that doesn't matter unless you can replace them, which the Pirates can't do right now.
McCutchen, a 28 year old right-hander, is exactly what you'd expect from a Pirates reliever. In 2010, he appeared in 28 games, 9 of which were starts, going 2-5 with a 6.12 ERA, 38 K's (just a 5.1 K/9), 28 walks (3.7 BB/9), 83 hits allowed (11.0 H/9), and 13 homers allowed (1.7 HR/9) in 67.2 IP. (He didn't record any holds. He had a 6.49 ERA as a starter and a 5.47 ERA as a reliever. He was just plain awful. You have to wonder how the heck he managed an 11.0 H/9 with a .303 BAbip and a 15% LD%. At least his 1.7 HR/9 was because of a 10.0 HR/FB. Still, come on! McCutchen is not a good pitcher at all. I'll be shocked if he posts a sub-5.00 ERA in '11.
I can't say Karstens was that bad in 2010. THe 28 year old righty went 3-10 with a 4.92 ERA, 72 K's, 27 walks, 146 hits allowed (10.7 H/9), and 21 homers allowed (1.5 HR/9) in 26 starts, 7 RA's and 122.2 IP. He actually was halfway decent as a starter, posting a 4.78 ERA, but allowing a 5.87 ERA as a reliever. Karsten is a 5th starter-type pitcher, but he has no place in the Pirates' rotation right now. Karstens 2011 stats as a starter are pretty much what he is with neutral luck. He allowed a .309 BAbip, so he was a little bit unlucky, but not too much at all. He allowed a good 17% LD%, but a 77% IP%. He did allow a 10.1 HR/FB, so at neutral he would probably post closer to a 1.0 HR/9. With a .300 BAbip and a 7.7 HR/9, maybe Karstens posts a 4.50 ERA. That's the best he could do. But, that would be as a starter. In his career, he has a 4.92 ERA as a starter, but a 5.63 ERA in relief. Karstens hasn't gotten comfortable pitching out of the bullpen, even after 39 career RA's. Unless he finally adjusts to the bullpen, expect Karstens to post an ERA in the 5.00's in '11, unless he's given a chance to start.
Ascanio, who will turn 26 in May, missed all of '10 with a torn labrum. He appeared in just 2 minor league relief appearances, posting a 0.00 ERA and 7 K's in 2 RA's and 3 IP. Ascanio last appeared in the majors in 2009, going 0-2 with a 4.00 ERA, 20 K's, 9 walks, and 1 hold in 16 RA's and 18 IP between the Cubs and Pirates. He allowed 22 hits, an 11.0 H/9, and 1 homer, a 0.5 HR/9. Those are pretty good stats. But, when you consider he had a crazy .412 BAbip, you better be amazed. He even had a great 15% LD% and he still had that .412 BAbip. Despite that, he still put up a 4.00 ERA. You have to impressed. He did allow a 3.8% HR/FB, so he was lucky in that regard, but he also allowed a good 59% IP%. If those were his 2010 numbers, I would expect big things from him in 2011. But, he was a pretty good reliever then, not necessarily now. Could he be a good reliever for the Pirates in 2011? We'll have to see if he's healthy in spring training. If healthy, Ascanio could be an effective reliever for the Pirates in 2011.
Overview:
Simply put, the Pirates are not a good team. But, they're not as bad as they were in 2010. Their young players are developing, and maybe in a couple years, when their top pitching prospects such as Jameson Taillon arrive in the majors, they will contend. Not in 2010, though. They're not that bad of an offensive team, but they're below-average defensively, their rotation is decent at best, their bullpen is filled with holes after Meek, Hanrahan, and Resop, and even among those three, they don't have a proven closer. They'll improve in 2011, but it's hard not to improve on their 105-loss 2010.
2010 record: 57-105
Prediction: 63-99, 6th in NL Central
The Pirates will contend if... most of the following things happen: either Snyder or Doumit steps up at catcher, Overbay puts up decent numbers, Walker, Alvarez, and Tabata continue to improve, Cedeno survives offensively, Jones drives in 100 runs, McCutchen goes 20-30 (20 homers, 30 stolen bases), McDonald puts up a 3.50 ERA over a full season, Maholm and Ohlendorf put up low-4.00's ERA, Correia posts a mid-4.00's ERA, the 5th starter (Morton or Olsen) puts up a sub-5.00 ERA, Hanrahan or Meek steps up as the closer, and the bullpen as a whole posts a sub-4.00 ERA.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Crazy Rangers-A's (-Pirates?) trade
Just Billy Beane doin' work. The Oakland A's have acquired right-handed reliever Guillermo Moscoso from the Texas Rangers in exchange for minor league right-handed reliever Ryan Kelly. Kelly was acquired from Pittsburgh in late December, so he never pitched a single game in the A's system. Kelly was acquired from Pittsburgh in exchange for minor league UTIL Corey Wimberly who was acquired from Colorado in February 2009 for Matt Murton. Murton was acquired from the Cubs in the Rich Harden trade. It's chaos. Rich Harden is well, Rich Harden and Murton just set the record for most hits in a season in Japan, so let's just look at the other players involved in the more recent trades.
Moscoso's big league performance in '10 wasn't anything to write home about. He pitched in 1 game, two thirds of an inning, giving up 2 runs for a 27.00 ERA. Even in the minors he posted a 7-7 record and a 5.18 ERA in 22 starts and a relief appearance at Triple-A Oklahoma City. But, it's not too hard to see what Beane sees in him. Moscoso posted a good 7.8 K/9 in the minors in '10 along with a 3.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, and a terrible 10.4 H/9. For his minor league career, Moscoso has an 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, and an 8.5 H/9. He just had an off-year. Even if you want to argue that he was overwhelmed by Triple-A, he did post a 2.31 ERA there in 11 starts and a relief apperance in '09. Also, in 10 big league relief appearances in '09, he posted a 3.18 ERA. Beane seemingly thinks that Moscoso will be at least a somewhat effective big league reliever for the A's in '11.
But, why then would Beane acquire him in exchange for Kelly, a minor league reliever? Kelly isn't great, but he did post a 4.20 ERA in '10. He gave up 9 home runs for a 1.1 HR/9 ratio, but he posted a 9.0 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9 for an outstanding 5.36 strikeout to walk ratio. Oh yeah, one problem: Kelly repeated Low-A in '10 and turned 23 in October. Either Beane is an idiot for trading a player with potential because of his high strikeout and low walk rates, or he's a genius for getting a big league reliever for a pitcher who posted an ERA over 4.00 an Low-A.
Wimberly, who Beane gave up to get Kelly, seems to have more value than either Moscoso or Kelly. He turned 27 in October, but last year at Triple-A Sacramento he hit .284 with 14 doubles, 3 homers, 57 RBI, 7 triples, 97 runs, 56 stolen bases, and a .373 OBP. He even played a decent centerfield and posted fielding percentages at LF, SS, and 2B that a team could live with (while being a complete disaster at third base). Sounds like Jerry Hairston Jr. with speed to me. How could Beane possibly trade him for a relliever who posted a 4.20 ERA at Low-A, especially one that he used to trade for another player? It's not like speedy utility players grow on trees!
I am so confused. The A's, like all teams, do have some utility players (such as Adam Rosales), but why give him away for nothing? If Kelly wasn't nothing, why did he trade him for Moscoso? Conspiracy theory is that this was essentially a three team trade where the Rangers wanted Kelly, the A's wanted Moscoso, and the Pirates wanted Wimberly. But, why then would there be over 2 weeks between the Pirates-A's trade and the A's-Rangers trade? My guess would be that Beane was trying to get more for Kelly, which delayed the trade for a while. A typical two weeks in the life of Billy Beane.
Moscoso's big league performance in '10 wasn't anything to write home about. He pitched in 1 game, two thirds of an inning, giving up 2 runs for a 27.00 ERA. Even in the minors he posted a 7-7 record and a 5.18 ERA in 22 starts and a relief appearance at Triple-A Oklahoma City. But, it's not too hard to see what Beane sees in him. Moscoso posted a good 7.8 K/9 in the minors in '10 along with a 3.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, and a terrible 10.4 H/9. For his minor league career, Moscoso has an 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, and an 8.5 H/9. He just had an off-year. Even if you want to argue that he was overwhelmed by Triple-A, he did post a 2.31 ERA there in 11 starts and a relief apperance in '09. Also, in 10 big league relief appearances in '09, he posted a 3.18 ERA. Beane seemingly thinks that Moscoso will be at least a somewhat effective big league reliever for the A's in '11.
But, why then would Beane acquire him in exchange for Kelly, a minor league reliever? Kelly isn't great, but he did post a 4.20 ERA in '10. He gave up 9 home runs for a 1.1 HR/9 ratio, but he posted a 9.0 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9 for an outstanding 5.36 strikeout to walk ratio. Oh yeah, one problem: Kelly repeated Low-A in '10 and turned 23 in October. Either Beane is an idiot for trading a player with potential because of his high strikeout and low walk rates, or he's a genius for getting a big league reliever for a pitcher who posted an ERA over 4.00 an Low-A.
Wimberly, who Beane gave up to get Kelly, seems to have more value than either Moscoso or Kelly. He turned 27 in October, but last year at Triple-A Sacramento he hit .284 with 14 doubles, 3 homers, 57 RBI, 7 triples, 97 runs, 56 stolen bases, and a .373 OBP. He even played a decent centerfield and posted fielding percentages at LF, SS, and 2B that a team could live with (while being a complete disaster at third base). Sounds like Jerry Hairston Jr. with speed to me. How could Beane possibly trade him for a relliever who posted a 4.20 ERA at Low-A, especially one that he used to trade for another player? It's not like speedy utility players grow on trees!
I am so confused. The A's, like all teams, do have some utility players (such as Adam Rosales), but why give him away for nothing? If Kelly wasn't nothing, why did he trade him for Moscoso? Conspiracy theory is that this was essentially a three team trade where the Rangers wanted Kelly, the A's wanted Moscoso, and the Pirates wanted Wimberly. But, why then would there be over 2 weeks between the Pirates-A's trade and the A's-Rangers trade? My guess would be that Beane was trying to get more for Kelly, which delayed the trade for a while. A typical two weeks in the life of Billy Beane.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Should the Yankees have traded for Lee?
The Rangers acquired Cliff Lee in exchange for Justin Smoak and 3 other prospects. The Mariners thought it was a good offer, even better than the Yankees' offer of Jesus Montero and 3 other prospects. They must have thought that Smoak will be a star. Were they wrong?
Smoak was the 11th overall pick in the loaded first round of the 2008 MLB draft. There obviously were busts (most notably #1 overall pick Tim Beckham), but the players that have panned out are Pedro Alvarez (#2 overall), Brian Matusz (#4), Buster Posey (#5), and Gordon Beckham (#8). Ike Davis (#18) was drafted after Smoak. I realize that it's not completely fair to compare Smoak to the players, but let's do it anyway.
It took Alvarez just 1.5 seasons to get to the majors. He hit .288 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 126 games between Low-A Lynchburg and Double-A Altoona in '09. After hitting .277 with 15 doubles, 13 homers, 53 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 66 games for Triple-A Indianapolis, Alvarez was called up to the majors. Alvarez had a pretty good year after being called up on June 16th, hitting just .256, but with 21 doubles, 16 homers, and 64 RBI. His OBP was .326. He does need work defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at 3rd base. He will be just 23 in '11, so he will have time to develop into a better player both offensively and defensively at the major league level. Alvarez is a nice young player who will be a cornerstone of the Pirates for years to come.
Brian Matusz made it to the majors in under 1 season. After a dominating minor league season in '09 between Low-A Frederick and Double-A, Matusz made it to the majors at age 22. Matusz went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 121 K's in 19 starts and 113 innings in the minors, and 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 38 K's in 8 starts and and 44.2 IP in the majors. Matusz improved in '10, going 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA and 143 K's in 32 starts and 175.2 IP. Matusz was just 4-12 with a 5.28 ERA on August 13th, but went undefeated the rest of the year, going 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 8 starts. The Orioles won all 8 of those games. Matusz really has a promising future. Pretty soon he will be the Orioles' ace.
Buster Posey dominated the minors for parts of 3 seasons before making it to the majors at age 22. Unlike Alvarez and Matusz, Posey signed soon enough to play in '08. He played in 10 games between Rookie ball and SS-A Salem Keizer, hitting .351 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, and a .467 OBP. It was a sign of things to come. Posey had another great season in '09, hitting .325 with 31 doubles, 18 homers, 80 RBI, 84 runs, and a .416 OBP in 115 games between High-A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. But, Posey had 14 passed balls at catcher, so he began '10 at Fresno. He hit very well once again, hitting .349 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 32 RBI, and a .442 OBP in 47 games while only allowing one passed ball. He was then promoted to the majors, and is a candidate to win NL Rookie of the Year. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He posted a .991 Fld% at catcher, throwing out 37% of attempted base stealers, and allowing just 1 passed ball. He is a very talented player who will be the catcher for the Giants for a long time.
Gordon Beckham took just 1 full season in the minors to make the majors at age 22. After signing early enough to play in '08, Beckham hit .310 with 2 doubles, 3 homers, and 8 RBI, and a .365 OBP in 14 games at Low-A Kannapolis. It was a stepping stone to a great season. He hit .326 with 23 doubles, 4 homers, 25 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 45 games between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte before being promoted to the majors. He did OK in the majors, hitting .270 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 63 RBI, and a .347 OBP in 103 games. But, he posted a below-average .952 Fld% at 3rd base. He was the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year and finished 5th in the real voting. He had a bit of a sophmore slump in '10, hitting .252 with 25 doubles, 9 homers, 49 RBI, and a .317 OBP in 131 games. Part of the problem was that he was moved to 2nd base, where he posted a below average .981 Fld%. But, he hit .320 from July 20th to the end of the year. Whatever his problem was, he fixed it. He should be a White Sox' infielder for a long time. Despite his sub-par year, I wouldn't be too surprised if the White Sox lock him up long term.
Davis needed 1.5 full seasons in the minors before making the majors at age 23. He signed the earliest among this group, and ended up playing 58 games for SS-A Brooklyn and was a disappointment. He hit just .256 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 17 RBI, and a .326 OBP. But, that was the last time that Davis was a disappointment. He hit .298 in '09 between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton with 31 doubles, 20 homers, 71 RBI, and a .381 OBP in 114 games. After just 10 games for Triple-A Buffalo in '10 in which he hit .364 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 4 RBI, and a .500 OBP, Davis was promoted to the majors. He had a great rookie season, hitting .264 with 33 doubles, 19 homers, 71 RBI, and a .341 OBP in 147 games. He was right at the league average with a .993 Fld% at 1st base. I'll make a bold statement and say that he's the next David Wright. He'll be a fixture at 1st base for the Mets.
Well, I've gone through everybody else. So, how good is Smoak?
In his first taste of pro ball in '08, Smoak hit .304 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 6 RBI in 14 games at Low-A Clinton. He didn't make any errors in 10 games at 1st base. It was definitely a nice showing, albeit in such a short period of time.
In '09, Smoak worked his way all the way up to Triple-A. After hitting .667 with 2 homers and 5 RBI at Rookie ball, Smoak was promoted to Double-A Frisco where he hit .328 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, and a .449 OBP in 50 games. It was a great showing, and he appeared to be on the fast track to the majors. He was so good at Frisco that he was brought up to Triple-A Oklahoma City, but there he struggled. In 54 games, Smoak hit just .244 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, and 23 RBI. But, Smoak did post a .363 OBP,which was great when considering his Low BA. But, he was just 23 years old, so he could adjust to Triple-A in '10.
Did Smoak make that adjustment? Well, after 15 games at Oklahoma City, Smoak hit .300 with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 5 RBI before being rushed to the majors. Smoak had his moments with the Rangers, but mostly he struggled. He hit just .209, but with 10 doubles, 8 homers, and 34 RBI. He posted a .318 OBP. Then of course, he was traded to the Mariners in the Lee trade. He remained with the Mariners from July 10th to July 29th and struggled mightily. He hit just .159 with 1 double, 2 homers, and 5 RBI in 16 games. To compound the problem, he posted just a .169 OBP, walking once and striking out 23 skill. After that terrible showing, Smoak was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma. He did just OK for Tacoma, hitting .271 with 7 doubles, 7 homers, and 25 RBI, although he did post a .377 OBP. But, somehow the work at Triple-A helped him, and he was a different player when he came back to the majors on September 18th. He hit .340 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 14 games from September 18th to October 3rd. Overall in '10, Smoak hit .218 with 14 doubles, 13 homers, 48 RBI, and a .307 OBP in 100 games. It was a disappointment, but the Mariners hope his great finish to the year will carry over into '11. He will have 1 major league season under his belt (he will be 24), and the Mariners hope that experience will jump-start a great career.
Among the others, Smoak is certainly not the best right now. Posey is far and away the top player in this group, then Davis, Alvarez, and Beckham in that order before Smoak. But, does he have the ability to be a great player? Well, the Mariners must think so. If he really deserved the Teixeira comparisons he was getting while on the Rangers, then he will be a great player.
Will the Lee trade end up being a good trade for the Mariners? There are 3 other players that Seattle acquired, but the trade will end up being graded based on Smoak's performance. If he never becomes a star, it was a bad trade. As of now, if I were a Mariners fan, I would have wished for Lee to be traded to the Yankees for Montero.
Smoak was the 11th overall pick in the loaded first round of the 2008 MLB draft. There obviously were busts (most notably #1 overall pick Tim Beckham), but the players that have panned out are Pedro Alvarez (#2 overall), Brian Matusz (#4), Buster Posey (#5), and Gordon Beckham (#8). Ike Davis (#18) was drafted after Smoak. I realize that it's not completely fair to compare Smoak to the players, but let's do it anyway.
It took Alvarez just 1.5 seasons to get to the majors. He hit .288 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 126 games between Low-A Lynchburg and Double-A Altoona in '09. After hitting .277 with 15 doubles, 13 homers, 53 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 66 games for Triple-A Indianapolis, Alvarez was called up to the majors. Alvarez had a pretty good year after being called up on June 16th, hitting just .256, but with 21 doubles, 16 homers, and 64 RBI. His OBP was .326. He does need work defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at 3rd base. He will be just 23 in '11, so he will have time to develop into a better player both offensively and defensively at the major league level. Alvarez is a nice young player who will be a cornerstone of the Pirates for years to come.
Brian Matusz made it to the majors in under 1 season. After a dominating minor league season in '09 between Low-A Frederick and Double-A, Matusz made it to the majors at age 22. Matusz went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 121 K's in 19 starts and 113 innings in the minors, and 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 38 K's in 8 starts and and 44.2 IP in the majors. Matusz improved in '10, going 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA and 143 K's in 32 starts and 175.2 IP. Matusz was just 4-12 with a 5.28 ERA on August 13th, but went undefeated the rest of the year, going 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 8 starts. The Orioles won all 8 of those games. Matusz really has a promising future. Pretty soon he will be the Orioles' ace.
Buster Posey dominated the minors for parts of 3 seasons before making it to the majors at age 22. Unlike Alvarez and Matusz, Posey signed soon enough to play in '08. He played in 10 games between Rookie ball and SS-A Salem Keizer, hitting .351 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, and a .467 OBP. It was a sign of things to come. Posey had another great season in '09, hitting .325 with 31 doubles, 18 homers, 80 RBI, 84 runs, and a .416 OBP in 115 games between High-A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. But, Posey had 14 passed balls at catcher, so he began '10 at Fresno. He hit very well once again, hitting .349 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 32 RBI, and a .442 OBP in 47 games while only allowing one passed ball. He was then promoted to the majors, and is a candidate to win NL Rookie of the Year. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He posted a .991 Fld% at catcher, throwing out 37% of attempted base stealers, and allowing just 1 passed ball. He is a very talented player who will be the catcher for the Giants for a long time.
Gordon Beckham took just 1 full season in the minors to make the majors at age 22. After signing early enough to play in '08, Beckham hit .310 with 2 doubles, 3 homers, and 8 RBI, and a .365 OBP in 14 games at Low-A Kannapolis. It was a stepping stone to a great season. He hit .326 with 23 doubles, 4 homers, 25 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 45 games between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte before being promoted to the majors. He did OK in the majors, hitting .270 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 63 RBI, and a .347 OBP in 103 games. But, he posted a below-average .952 Fld% at 3rd base. He was the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year and finished 5th in the real voting. He had a bit of a sophmore slump in '10, hitting .252 with 25 doubles, 9 homers, 49 RBI, and a .317 OBP in 131 games. Part of the problem was that he was moved to 2nd base, where he posted a below average .981 Fld%. But, he hit .320 from July 20th to the end of the year. Whatever his problem was, he fixed it. He should be a White Sox' infielder for a long time. Despite his sub-par year, I wouldn't be too surprised if the White Sox lock him up long term.
Davis needed 1.5 full seasons in the minors before making the majors at age 23. He signed the earliest among this group, and ended up playing 58 games for SS-A Brooklyn and was a disappointment. He hit just .256 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 17 RBI, and a .326 OBP. But, that was the last time that Davis was a disappointment. He hit .298 in '09 between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton with 31 doubles, 20 homers, 71 RBI, and a .381 OBP in 114 games. After just 10 games for Triple-A Buffalo in '10 in which he hit .364 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 4 RBI, and a .500 OBP, Davis was promoted to the majors. He had a great rookie season, hitting .264 with 33 doubles, 19 homers, 71 RBI, and a .341 OBP in 147 games. He was right at the league average with a .993 Fld% at 1st base. I'll make a bold statement and say that he's the next David Wright. He'll be a fixture at 1st base for the Mets.
Well, I've gone through everybody else. So, how good is Smoak?
In his first taste of pro ball in '08, Smoak hit .304 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 6 RBI in 14 games at Low-A Clinton. He didn't make any errors in 10 games at 1st base. It was definitely a nice showing, albeit in such a short period of time.
In '09, Smoak worked his way all the way up to Triple-A. After hitting .667 with 2 homers and 5 RBI at Rookie ball, Smoak was promoted to Double-A Frisco where he hit .328 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, and a .449 OBP in 50 games. It was a great showing, and he appeared to be on the fast track to the majors. He was so good at Frisco that he was brought up to Triple-A Oklahoma City, but there he struggled. In 54 games, Smoak hit just .244 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, and 23 RBI. But, Smoak did post a .363 OBP,which was great when considering his Low BA. But, he was just 23 years old, so he could adjust to Triple-A in '10.
Did Smoak make that adjustment? Well, after 15 games at Oklahoma City, Smoak hit .300 with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 5 RBI before being rushed to the majors. Smoak had his moments with the Rangers, but mostly he struggled. He hit just .209, but with 10 doubles, 8 homers, and 34 RBI. He posted a .318 OBP. Then of course, he was traded to the Mariners in the Lee trade. He remained with the Mariners from July 10th to July 29th and struggled mightily. He hit just .159 with 1 double, 2 homers, and 5 RBI in 16 games. To compound the problem, he posted just a .169 OBP, walking once and striking out 23 skill. After that terrible showing, Smoak was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma. He did just OK for Tacoma, hitting .271 with 7 doubles, 7 homers, and 25 RBI, although he did post a .377 OBP. But, somehow the work at Triple-A helped him, and he was a different player when he came back to the majors on September 18th. He hit .340 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 14 games from September 18th to October 3rd. Overall in '10, Smoak hit .218 with 14 doubles, 13 homers, 48 RBI, and a .307 OBP in 100 games. It was a disappointment, but the Mariners hope his great finish to the year will carry over into '11. He will have 1 major league season under his belt (he will be 24), and the Mariners hope that experience will jump-start a great career.
Among the others, Smoak is certainly not the best right now. Posey is far and away the top player in this group, then Davis, Alvarez, and Beckham in that order before Smoak. But, does he have the ability to be a great player? Well, the Mariners must think so. If he really deserved the Teixeira comparisons he was getting while on the Rangers, then he will be a great player.
Will the Lee trade end up being a good trade for the Mariners? There are 3 other players that Seattle acquired, but the trade will end up being graded based on Smoak's performance. If he never becomes a star, it was a bad trade. As of now, if I were a Mariners fan, I would have wished for Lee to be traded to the Yankees for Montero.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Thomson belongs in a unique class of players
Everyone baseball fan knows Bobby Thomson. He hit the 'shot heard round the world' to send the NY Giants to the 1951 World Series. But, he's not a Hall of Famer. He was a career .270 season with 264 homers. 1951 was the only season in which he hit .264 homers. Still, everyone knows him. There aren't too many players like that. Most universally known players are either Hall of Famers (ex. Babe Ruth), future Hall of Famers (ex. Derek Jeter), or would be Hall of Famers whose careers were derailed by injuries (ex. Nomar Garciaparra) or some other problem (ex. Dwight Gooden or Mark McGwire). The universally known players who aren't anywhere near Hall of Famers had one legendary moment or one legendary season. Thomson, Roger Maris, and Kirk Gibson are the only ones I can think of immediately. (If you're thinking of Bill Mazeroski, who hit a walkoff homer to win the 1960 World Series for the Pirates, he was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in 2001.) Maris and Gibson only had 275 and 255 homers respectively. Still, we'll always remember them. Some players are legends their whole career, but others are legends just because of one moment or one season that will be remembered forever.
Friday, July 9, 2010
A review of every significant Yankee trade since '08
Nearly every year, the Yankees make a deal or two to acquire some veterans in exchange for some prospects and/or young major league players. Let's look at these trades (since '08), how the former Yankees and Yankee prospects have been doing, and how the players acquired in the trades by the Yankees have been doing in order to see whether the trades have ended being a good trades for the Yanks. I'll go through these in reverse chronological order.
In December of '09, the Yankees acquired RHP Javier Vazquez and left-handed reliever Boone Logan in exchange for major league OF Melky Cabrera, left-handed pitching prospect Mike Dunn, and right-handed pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino. Melky has hit .257 for the Braves with 12 doubles, 2 homers, 23 RBI, 3 SB, and a .314 OBP in 82 games. Dunn has gone 2-0 at Triple-A Gwinnett, with a 1.11 ERA and 54 K's in 31 relief appearances and 40.2 IP. Vizcaino went 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 66 K's in 12 starts and 69.1 IP for Low-A Rome before being promoted to High-A Myrtle Beach, where he has gone 0-0 with a 4.61 ERA and 11 K's in 3 starts and 13.2 IP. It's too early to tell, but this has been a pretty even trade so far. The Yankees traded a decent major league player and two good prospects for Vazquez, who is starting to pitch like a great pitcher, and a pretty good reliever in Boone Logan.
Also in December of '09, the Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks made a 3-way trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yanks, Edwin Jackson and Yankees RHP prospect Ian Kennedy to the D-backs, and Arizona right-handed relief prospect Mark Schlereth and right-handed major league starter Max Scherzer going to Detroit along with Yankee CF prospect Austin Jackson and major league lefty reliever Phil Coke. Let's look at how Kennedy, Coke, and Jackson have done for their respective teams. Kennedy has gone 3-7 with a 4.16 ERA and 95 K's in 17 starts and 106 IP. He has been a pretty starter for the D-backs. Coke has been a great reliever for Detroit, going 5-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 28 K's in 40 relief appearances and 34.2 IP. Jackson has hit .306 as the regular centerfielder for the Tigers, with 20 doubles, 1 homer, 20 RBI, 4 triples, 13 SB, and a .355 OBP in 75 games. I guess we have to compare Jackson to Granderson. Granderson has hit .225 with 8 doubles, 7 homers, 23 RBI, 4 triples, 7 SB, and a .300 OBP in 60 games. He missed nearly a month with a groin injury. Jackson has posted a better BA, OBP, and he stole more bases than Granderson so far in '10, but despite the missed time, Granderson has posted better power numbers and tied Jackson in triples. It's a debate who's better, but trading Jackson along with Kennedy and Coke for Granderson does not seem like a good trade for the Yankees. Of course, Granderson could turn it on at any time and make all of us forget about these prospects. But, he hasn't yet, so we have to consider this trade a bad trade for the Yankees right now.
At the trade deadline in '09, the Yankees traded minor league catcher Chris Weems to the Reds in exchange for utility player Jerry Hairston Jr. Weems is hitting just .222 at Low-A Dayton, with 2 doubles, 0 homers, 3 RBI, and a .263 OBP in 14 games. Hairston hit .237 with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 45 gamesfor the Yankees in '09 while playing every outfield position, and every infield position besides 1st base. He's hitting .245 for the Padres in '10, with 8 doubles, 5 homers, 30 RBI, 5 SB, and a .286 OBP in 76 games. This trade was a steal for the Yankees. They traded a struggling prospect for a good major league utility player.
One month before the trade deadline, the Yankees traded minor league LHP Casey Erickson and catching and outfield prospect Eric Fryer in exchange for Eric Hinske, who plays both corner outfield and corner infield positions. Erickson has gone 3-2 for High-A Bradenton, with a 4.02 ERA and 43 K's in 16 relief appearances, 6 starts, and 53.2 IP. Fryer is hitting .274 at High-A Bradenton, with 13 doubles, 7 homers, 34 RBI, 4 triples, 5 SB, and a .373 OBP in 57 games. Hinske hit .226 with the Yankees in '09, with 3 doubles, 7 homers, 14 RBI, and a .316 OBP in 39 games. He really didn't play very much at all. He had just 84 at-bats with the Yankees. With the Braves in '10, he has hit .278 with 16 doubles, 6 homers, 34 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 71 games. This trade was a bad trade for the Yankees. They traded a pretty good prospect in Fryer and a decent prospect in Erickson in exchange for a player who barely played for them.
Five days before the trade deadline in '08, the Yankees traded right-handed pitching prospects Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen, major league right-hander Ross Ohlendorf, and LF prospect Jose Tabata to the Pirates in exchange for left-handed reliever Damaso Marte and OF Xavier Nady. Karsten has gone 2-3 with a 4.71 ERA and 36 K's in 10 start, 6 relief appearances, and 72.2 IP. He went 1-2 with a 7.31 ERA and 12 K's in 4 relief appearances, 1 start, and 16 IP. McCutchen has gone 1-4 for Pittsburgh in '10, with a 8.58 ERA and 16 K's in 6 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 28.1 IP. Ohlendorf has gone 1-6 with a 4.39 ERA and 45 K's in 12 starts and 67.2 IP. He went 11-10 with a 3.92 ERA and 109 K's in 29 starts and 176.2 IP in '09. Tabata is hitting .235 for the Pirates with 6 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, 7 SB, and a .304 OBP in 25 games. Nady hit .270 with 15 doubles, 12 homers, 42 RBI, and a .319 OBP in 66 games with the Yankees between the '08 and '09 seasons. He missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury. Marte has gone 6-2 with a 6.02 ERA in 76 relief appearances with the Yanks from '07 to '10. But, Marte was untouchable in the '09 postseason, giving up no runs on 2 hits in 8 relief appearances and 4 IP. The Yankees traded 4 prospects who Pittsburgh has called up already for a player who was injured most of his time with the team and a reliever who has posted below-average numbers. This trade has been a complete disaster for the Yankees, but at least it gave Marte the opportunity to perform the way he did in the '09 playoffs.
The Yankees have not made good trades the last few years. Among these trades, I would say that only 1 trade (the Hairston trade) was a good trade for the Yankees, 2 trades were bad (Hinske and Nady/Marte) with the Granderson trade seeming to be bad, but it's too early to tell, and the Vazquez trade being a pretty even trade. I hope the Yankees can make better trades at the 2010 trade deadline and during the 2010 offseason.
In December of '09, the Yankees acquired RHP Javier Vazquez and left-handed reliever Boone Logan in exchange for major league OF Melky Cabrera, left-handed pitching prospect Mike Dunn, and right-handed pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino. Melky has hit .257 for the Braves with 12 doubles, 2 homers, 23 RBI, 3 SB, and a .314 OBP in 82 games. Dunn has gone 2-0 at Triple-A Gwinnett, with a 1.11 ERA and 54 K's in 31 relief appearances and 40.2 IP. Vizcaino went 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 66 K's in 12 starts and 69.1 IP for Low-A Rome before being promoted to High-A Myrtle Beach, where he has gone 0-0 with a 4.61 ERA and 11 K's in 3 starts and 13.2 IP. It's too early to tell, but this has been a pretty even trade so far. The Yankees traded a decent major league player and two good prospects for Vazquez, who is starting to pitch like a great pitcher, and a pretty good reliever in Boone Logan.
Also in December of '09, the Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks made a 3-way trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yanks, Edwin Jackson and Yankees RHP prospect Ian Kennedy to the D-backs, and Arizona right-handed relief prospect Mark Schlereth and right-handed major league starter Max Scherzer going to Detroit along with Yankee CF prospect Austin Jackson and major league lefty reliever Phil Coke. Let's look at how Kennedy, Coke, and Jackson have done for their respective teams. Kennedy has gone 3-7 with a 4.16 ERA and 95 K's in 17 starts and 106 IP. He has been a pretty starter for the D-backs. Coke has been a great reliever for Detroit, going 5-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 28 K's in 40 relief appearances and 34.2 IP. Jackson has hit .306 as the regular centerfielder for the Tigers, with 20 doubles, 1 homer, 20 RBI, 4 triples, 13 SB, and a .355 OBP in 75 games. I guess we have to compare Jackson to Granderson. Granderson has hit .225 with 8 doubles, 7 homers, 23 RBI, 4 triples, 7 SB, and a .300 OBP in 60 games. He missed nearly a month with a groin injury. Jackson has posted a better BA, OBP, and he stole more bases than Granderson so far in '10, but despite the missed time, Granderson has posted better power numbers and tied Jackson in triples. It's a debate who's better, but trading Jackson along with Kennedy and Coke for Granderson does not seem like a good trade for the Yankees. Of course, Granderson could turn it on at any time and make all of us forget about these prospects. But, he hasn't yet, so we have to consider this trade a bad trade for the Yankees right now.
At the trade deadline in '09, the Yankees traded minor league catcher Chris Weems to the Reds in exchange for utility player Jerry Hairston Jr. Weems is hitting just .222 at Low-A Dayton, with 2 doubles, 0 homers, 3 RBI, and a .263 OBP in 14 games. Hairston hit .237 with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 45 gamesfor the Yankees in '09 while playing every outfield position, and every infield position besides 1st base. He's hitting .245 for the Padres in '10, with 8 doubles, 5 homers, 30 RBI, 5 SB, and a .286 OBP in 76 games. This trade was a steal for the Yankees. They traded a struggling prospect for a good major league utility player.
One month before the trade deadline, the Yankees traded minor league LHP Casey Erickson and catching and outfield prospect Eric Fryer in exchange for Eric Hinske, who plays both corner outfield and corner infield positions. Erickson has gone 3-2 for High-A Bradenton, with a 4.02 ERA and 43 K's in 16 relief appearances, 6 starts, and 53.2 IP. Fryer is hitting .274 at High-A Bradenton, with 13 doubles, 7 homers, 34 RBI, 4 triples, 5 SB, and a .373 OBP in 57 games. Hinske hit .226 with the Yankees in '09, with 3 doubles, 7 homers, 14 RBI, and a .316 OBP in 39 games. He really didn't play very much at all. He had just 84 at-bats with the Yankees. With the Braves in '10, he has hit .278 with 16 doubles, 6 homers, 34 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 71 games. This trade was a bad trade for the Yankees. They traded a pretty good prospect in Fryer and a decent prospect in Erickson in exchange for a player who barely played for them.
Five days before the trade deadline in '08, the Yankees traded right-handed pitching prospects Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen, major league right-hander Ross Ohlendorf, and LF prospect Jose Tabata to the Pirates in exchange for left-handed reliever Damaso Marte and OF Xavier Nady. Karsten has gone 2-3 with a 4.71 ERA and 36 K's in 10 start, 6 relief appearances, and 72.2 IP. He went 1-2 with a 7.31 ERA and 12 K's in 4 relief appearances, 1 start, and 16 IP. McCutchen has gone 1-4 for Pittsburgh in '10, with a 8.58 ERA and 16 K's in 6 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 28.1 IP. Ohlendorf has gone 1-6 with a 4.39 ERA and 45 K's in 12 starts and 67.2 IP. He went 11-10 with a 3.92 ERA and 109 K's in 29 starts and 176.2 IP in '09. Tabata is hitting .235 for the Pirates with 6 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, 7 SB, and a .304 OBP in 25 games. Nady hit .270 with 15 doubles, 12 homers, 42 RBI, and a .319 OBP in 66 games with the Yankees between the '08 and '09 seasons. He missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury. Marte has gone 6-2 with a 6.02 ERA in 76 relief appearances with the Yanks from '07 to '10. But, Marte was untouchable in the '09 postseason, giving up no runs on 2 hits in 8 relief appearances and 4 IP. The Yankees traded 4 prospects who Pittsburgh has called up already for a player who was injured most of his time with the team and a reliever who has posted below-average numbers. This trade has been a complete disaster for the Yankees, but at least it gave Marte the opportunity to perform the way he did in the '09 playoffs.
The Yankees have not made good trades the last few years. Among these trades, I would say that only 1 trade (the Hairston trade) was a good trade for the Yankees, 2 trades were bad (Hinske and Nady/Marte) with the Granderson trade seeming to be bad, but it's too early to tell, and the Vazquez trade being a pretty even trade. I hope the Yankees can make better trades at the 2010 trade deadline and during the 2010 offseason.
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