One of the biggest things coming in the 2011 offseason is the impending free agency of Albert Pujols. He looks to command the biggest contract in MLB history, even corralling 30 million dollars a year. But who will pay him that kind of money? Let's go through the teams and see what the odds are for each team signing Pujols.
No chance
30. Rays
The Rays need help at first base, but considering they couldn't re-sign Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena, how in the world would they sign Pujols? Even if they have a small payroll and there's no chance they'll commit over half their 2012 salary to one player. There's a zero chance Pujols goes to the Rays.
Odds: 1 in 4,000,000,000
29. Royals
The Royals have a tiny payroll and Eric Hosmer as their first baseman of the future. The Royals don't need to make a big splash in free agency with the top prospects coming, and even if they did, they don't have anywhere near the money to sign Pujols. Pujols will not be going across the state of Missouri to Kansas City in 2012.
Odds: 1 in 1,000,000,000
28. Pirates
When was the last time the Pirates signed a big free agent? They just don't have the payroll. Lyle Overbay (arguably their biggest free agent signing of the 2010 offseason) isn't the long-term answer at first base, but the Pirates will have to look to the farm system or lower-tier free agents because Pujols will not be a Pirate (although I could see the headline now: "Pujols a Pirate").
Odds: 1 in 90,000,000
27. Blue Jays
The Jays couldn't even sign their own big impending free agent, Roy Halladay. How in the world would they sign Pujols?
Odds: 1 in 75,000,000
26. Diamondbacks
They haven't had a big signing in quite a while. Prospect Brandon Allen is the first baseman is the future, and he's certainly not a sure thing, and also the D-backs made a run at Paul Konerko, but they just don't have anywhere near enough money to make a run at Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 60,000,000
25. Brewers
If the Brewers had the money to sign Pujols, they would have extended Prince Fielder. Also, they just signed Ryan Braun to a huge deal.
Odds: 1 in 50,000,000
24. Padres
Ditto Brewers, but for Adrian Gonzalez. They haven't signed anybody to a big extension, but they have never had a lot of money to begin with.
Odds: 1 in 45,000,000
23. Reds
The Reds have a player they can build around in Joey Votto at first base, and they're a small-market team anyway.
Odds: 1 in 35,000,000
22. Indians
The Indians are playing out of their mind right now and you would think that they just need to continue adding fuel to the fire to keep contending. But, they have a good combination of veterans and young players right now, and they would certainly extend Grady Sizemore before signing Pujols. Not to mention that they don't have the money to sign Pujols anyway.
Odds: 1 in 20,000,000
21. Twins
The Twins have Justin Morneau at first base, and it's unlikely that they'll be able to afford another high-priced player.
Odds: 1 in 10,000,000
20. Giants
The Giants have Aubrey Huff and Brandon Belt, and we know they don't have 30 million dollars lying around.
Odds: 1 in 8,000,000
19. White Sox
The White Sox have some money, but they have both Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn. They're not signing Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 7,500,000
18. Mets
The Mets have had cash in the past, but we know that the Wilpons are cash-stricken and looking to add a minority owner. Even if they did somehow get the money, they'll be much more worried about signing Jose Reyes anyway. And of course, they have a promising player in Ike Davis at first base.
Odds: 1 in 5,000,000
17. Astros
They're getting a new owner, so you never no what their payroll would be, but they have Brett Wallace at first base, and the new owner wouldn't want to commit most of his payroll to Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 3,000,000
16. Athletics
The A's don't have the money, but I feel like Billy Beane could pull off a crazy sign-and-trade or something.
Odds: 1 in 2,500,000
15. Mariners
The Mariners have signed a couple of big free agents in recent years, but they don't appear to be contending anytime soon, and they have Justin Smoak, who should be manning first base for years to come.
Odds: 1 in 2,000,000
14. Marlins
The Marlins want to make a splash as they're moving into their new stadium, and they did spend a bit more money in the 2010 offseason, but 30 million dollars is a ton of money, and unless Pujols gives the Fish a "hometown discount" because they're the closest MLB team to the Dominican public, the Marlins won't be able to sign him.
Odds: 1 in 1,000,000
Probably not
13. Phillies
The entire baseball world is hoping that the Phillies don't scrape together enough pennies to sign Albert Pujols. I'm sure Ryan Howard is hoping too.
Odds: 1 in 10,000
12. Braves
The Braves have Freddie Freeman at first, and they don't have limitless funds, but they've made runs at big players in recent years.
Odds: 1 in 7,500
11. Tigers
Maybe the Tigers have money, but they have Miguel Cabrera, and they would have to catch Victor Martinez more often to fit in Pujols at DH. They'd also have to convince Pujols to play left field on an irregular basis (he did play most of 2003 in left field, but he hasn't played there since).
Odds: 1 in 5,000
10. Rockies
The Rockies have extended Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Is there any money left?
Odds: 1 in 3,500
9. Angels
The Angels made runs at Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford this past offseason, but failed to sign either of them, and they traded for the pricey Vernon Wells. The Angels don't have quite enough money to sign Pujols, and they also have two promising first baseman in Kendrys Morales and Mark Trumbo.
Odds: 1 in 2000
9. Red Sox
The Red Sox might have the money, but with Adrian Gonzalez at third, David Ortiz at DH, and even Carl Crawford in left field, the Red Sox would have to convince Pujols to play right field. Pujols did play 39 games there in 2001, but he has had some elbow problems since, and playing right field could kill his elbow and endanger his career. It's not impossible, but it's certainly a long-shot.
Odds: 1 in 1000
Don't completely count them out
7. Dodgers
They've spent quite a bit of money in the past. If they ever get that FOX TV deal signed, and their ownership situation resolved you never know what will happen, but the chances are certainly against Pujols being a Dodger.
Odds: 1 in 100
6. Orioles
The Orioles are starting to spend some money, and Derrek Lee was signed to just a one-year contract, but 30 million dollars is seemingly too much.
Odds: 1 in 75
5. Rangers
The Rangers have been spending money lately, but they already have a ton of money on the books and a logjam of players playing first base/DH including Mike Napoli and Michael Young. They theoretically could sign Pujols, but they probably will decide not to.
Odds: 1 in 60
4. Nationals
The Nats signed Jason Werth this past offseason and Adam LaRoche is coming off the books after the season, so you never know for sure.
Odds: 1 in 40
3. Yankees
You may think I'm crazy, but Pujols going to the Yankees is a semi-realistic possibility. It would be the same of situation as the Red Sox above with Mark Teixeira at first base, but the Yankees would certainly move Brett Gardner to give Pujols time in left field, and if they could sign Pujols, they would certainly be willing to trade Jesus Montero to give him time at DH as well.
Odds: 1 in 20
Contenders
2. Cubs
The Cubs have new owners, the Ricketts, and are dying to make Pujols a part of their team. They might actually be able to offer Pujols a 10 year, 300 million dollar contract. But would Pujols leave St. Louis?
Odds: 2 in 5
1. Cardinals
The Cardinals have been Pujols' team the past 11 years. They won a championship with him and have built a solid team around him. Why should he leave? But will the Cardinals offer him the 30 million a year?
Odds: 12 in 25
Results
Cardinals- 48% chance of re-signing Pujols
Cubs- 40% chance of signing Pujols
Yankees- 5% chance of signing Pujols
Nationals- 2.5% chance of signing Pujols
Rangers- 1.7% chance of signing Pujols
The field- 2.7% chance of signing Pujols
It's Cubs-Cardinals for the rights to have Pujols with the Yankees, Nationals, and Rangers having outside chances and every other team barely being involved if part of the picture at all. This should be interesting.
Showing posts with label Mark Teixeira. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mark Teixeira. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Comparing the 1996 and 2009 Yankee championship teams
When I first thought of the idea for this post, I thought that the 2009 Yankees would be so different be so different from the 1996 Yankees. Really, when you look at the big picture, that's not the case. Let's compare them position by position to illustrate that point.
C: Joe Girardi vs. Jorge Posada
Before you say anything, let's compare the salaries: 2.325 million dollars vs. 13.1 million dollars. Sure, Girardi was signed as a free agent, but to be a role player. Also, the players themselves couldn't be more different. Girardi hit .294 with 22 doubles, 2 homers, 45 RBI, 13 SB, and a .346 OBP in 124 games. He also played well defensively, posting a .996 Fld% at catcher, and a 25% CS%. Posada in contrast, hit .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, 1 SB (had to point that out), and a .363 OBP in 111 games. He posted just a .990 Fld%, although he did post a 28% CS%. Girardi was a scrappy player who got on base and played well defensively. Posada was a power hitter who had trouble just stopping errant pitches (Girardi had 10 passed balls compared to Posada's 31). Going by WAR, Posada had a much better season. But, was he worth almost 11 million dollars more? Either way, both players played important roles for their teams.
1B: Tino Martinez vs. Mark Teixeira
Let's look at the salaries again. 2.3 million dollars for Tino compared to 20.625 million dollars for Teix. Tino and Teix was much more similar than you would think based on their salaries. Tino hit .292 with 28 doubles, 25 homers, 117 RBI, 82 runs, and a .364 OBP in 155 games. Teix hit that same .292 with 43 doubles, 39 homers, 122 RBI, 103 runs, and a .383 OBP in 156 games. Tino posted a .996 Fld% at 1B compared to Teixeira's .997. First base might be the one position where both teams were very similar. Teixeira was a better player, but not by that much. Obviously, Teix isn't worth over 18 million dollars more than Tino. Both teams filled a very similar role for their respective teams- a power-hitting first baseman in the middle of the lineup who also plays well defensively.
2B: Mariano Duncan vs. Robinson Cano
The salary gap here isn't that far: 845,000 dollars for Duncan compared to 6 million dollars for Cano. They certainly had very different seasons. Duncan hit .340 with 34 doubles, 8 homers, 56 RBI, and just a .352 OBP (9 walks all year) in 109 games.Cano hit .320 with 48 doubles, 25 homers, 85 RBI, 103 runs, and a .352 OBP (30 walks) in 161 games. Defensively, Cano was far superior, posting a .984 Fld% at Duncan's .973. Duncan was an incredible hitter for average that had few other skills, while Cano was an amazing hitter who hit for average and power in addition to being a Gold Glover defensively. Cano was significantly better, but Duncan filled a nice niche for the 1996 team.
3B: Wade Boggs vs. Alex Rodriguez
2.05 million dollars versus 33 million. Oh my gosh. Boggs and A-rod are as different as night and day. Boggs hit .311 with 29 doubles, 2 homers, 41 RBI, 80 runs, 1 SB, and a .389 OBP in 132 games. A-rod hit .286 with 17 doubles, 30 homers, 100 RBI, 78 runs, 14 SB, and a .402 OBP in 124 games. Boggs posted a .974 Fld% at third base compared to .967 by A-rod. Boggs is a Hall of Famer because he was an amazing pure hitter. A-rod was once a good pure hitter (215 hits in 1996 and 213 in 1998), but is now known strictly as a power hitter. Boggs was a very good role player at that point in his career, while A-rod was still a superstar when he came back from injury. They contributed very different aspects to their teams; Boggs was a top-of-the-lineup kind of player who was a table-setter for the big hitters. A-rod, obviously, is a big hitter.
SS: Derek Jeter vs. Derek Jeter
The salary comparison isn't fair- Jeter was a rookie in '96 so of course he didn't a lot of money! He made just 160 thousand dollars compared to 21.6 million in 2009. Let's compare Jeter's seasons. He certainly had two Jeterian seasons. He hit .314 with 25 doubles, 10 homers, 78 RBI, 104 runs, 183 hits, 14 SB, and a .370 OBP in 157 games on his way to the AL Rookie of the Year. Like most rookie shortstops, he did struggle defensively, posting a .969 Fld% (although his range was must better than it is now). In '09, he also had a great season, hitting .334 with 27 doubles, 18 homers, 66 RBI, 107 runs, 212 hits, 30 SB, and a .406 OBP in 153 games. He posted a .986 Fld%. Jeter was a great player both back then and in '09 (maybe not really anymore).
LF: Gerald Williams/Tim Raines vs. Johnny Damon
Looking at the salaries, Damon easily made more than Williams and Raines combined. Raines made 2.1 million dollars and Williams made '200 thousand while Damon made 13 million. Williams had a below-average season, hitting .270 with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, 7 SB, and just a .319 OBP while posting just a .978 Fld% in LF, which was just slightly below league average, but you would expect more from a player who played most of his career in centerfield. To make things worse, he only had 1 assist. He was traded to the Brewers in August (through waivers). Raines meanwhile, was sidelined most of the year by a hamstring tear, but came back after Williams was traded. He did well, hitting .284 with 10 doubles, 9 homers, 33 RBI, 45 runs, and a .383 OBP in 59 games. He also posted an above average .988 Fld% in LF, with 3 assists. In 2009, Damon had a great season offensively, hitting .282 with 36 doubles, 24 homers, 82 RBI, 107 runs, 12 SB, and a .365 OBP in 143 games. But, he posted an astronomically below average .978 Fld% in LF (league average was .987). This guy was playing centerfield the year before! Anyway, Damon was certainly better than Gim Waines (Williams + Raines). But again, was he worth 10 million dollars more?
CF: Bernie Williams vs. Melky Cabrera
In terms of salaries, Bernie made 3 million dollars to Melky's 1.4 million. Bernie was certainly double as good as Melky. He hit .305 with 26 doubles, 29 homers, 102 RBI, 108 runs, 17 SB, and a .391 OBP in 143 games. He did post just a .986 Fld% in centerfield, which was below average, but he had 10 outfield assists, third in the league. He had an outstanding season. Not that Melky was bad at all. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .990 Fld% in the outfield, including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF, but he posted just 3 assists. In a battle of arbitration-eligible players (Bernie won in a hearing), Bernie was certainly a far superior player, although Melky filled an important role for the 2009 Yankees.
RF: Paul O'Neill vs. Nick Swisher
O'Neill and Swisher happened to make nearly the same amount of money, with O'Neill earning 5.3 million dollars and Swish earning 5.4. Both players had good seasons. O'Neill hit .302 with 35 doubles, 19 homers, 91 RBI, 89 runs, and a .411 OBP in 150 games. Swish hit .249 with 35 doubles, 29 homers, 82 RBI, 84 runs, and a .371 OBP in 150 games. O'Neill was superb defensively, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld% at RF with 7 assists, while Swish was still OK at .983 with 7 assists as well. They gave similar contributions to their teams (O'Neill was better), so they certainly deserved similar salaries.
DH: Ruben Sierra/Darryl Strawberry/Cecil Fielder vs. Hideki Matsui
The three headed monster at DH made a total of 6.5 million dollars, while Matsui made double that, 13 million dollars. Ruben Sierra was the DH for the '96 Yankees until July. But, he performed so poorly (.258 BA, .327 OBP, 11 homers in 96 games), that the Yankees traded him for Cecil Fielder at the deadline, and acquired Darryl Strawbery. (Fielder was actually in the middle of his last monster season, as he would go on to hit 39 homers and drive in 119 runs.) Decil Fieldberry hit 24 homers in a combined 116 games, hitting .261. (Darryl played a bit in the outfield and Fielder played some first base). All 3 players combined hit .260 with 35 homers and 125 RBI in 212 games. Matsui himself hit .274 with 28 homers and 90 RBI in 142 games. Advantage 2009. Might as well pay double for some stability rather than RubenDecil Sierra-Fieldberry. (Thank you BenJarvus Green-Ellis.)
Rotation:
The 1996 Yankees had a rotation of Andy Pettitte (21-8, 3.87 ERA), Kenny Rodgers (12-8, 4.68), Dwight Gooden (11-7, 5.01), Jimmy Key (12-11, 4.68), David Cone, who missed much of the year with an aneurysm (7-2, 2.88), and Ramiro Mendoza, who replaced him (4-5, 6.79). They earned a total of 11.467 million dollars. The 2009 Yankee rotation consisted of CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37), AJ Burnett (13-9, 4.04), Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16), Joba Chamberlain (9-6, 4.75), and Chien-Ming Wang/Sergio Mitre/Chad Gaudin (combined 6-9, 6.63, although Gaudin went 2-0, 3.43). They made 42 million, 718 thousand, 289 dollars. That's almost 4 times as much as '96. But their ERA was better, 4.40 compared to 4.56, but not THAT much better!
Closer: John Wetteland vs. Mariano Rivera
There's no comparison. Rivera earned so much more (15 million dollars to 4 million), but he pitched much better. He posted a 1.76 ERA and 44 saves compared to Wetteland's still great 2.83 ERA and 43 saves. Rivera isn't 11 million dollars better, but he certainly was (and is at least arguably) the best closer in baseball.
I couldn't compare everybody, but these are the cores of those teams. Salaries are certainly different now from then, so the salary comparison is not really fair. Still, the 2009 Yankees had five times the payroll of '96. But, they were both built off of free agents with some amount homegrown talent mixed in. That's the Yankee formula now, and it won't change anytime soon. The Yankees, even with their great talent in the minors right now, do not have a homegrown dynasty coming. No matter how great the prospects are, only the very best will make it, and the rest of the roster will be made up of players, superstars, and some role players, acquired via free agency and trades. Many of the second-best prospects might have great careers with other teams, but it just won't work out for them with the Yankees. Even after A-rod's, Teixeira's, and CC's contracts expire, we all know there will be new big contracts handed out. If they do their moves right, we'll see another dynasty coming soon.
C: Joe Girardi vs. Jorge Posada
Before you say anything, let's compare the salaries: 2.325 million dollars vs. 13.1 million dollars. Sure, Girardi was signed as a free agent, but to be a role player. Also, the players themselves couldn't be more different. Girardi hit .294 with 22 doubles, 2 homers, 45 RBI, 13 SB, and a .346 OBP in 124 games. He also played well defensively, posting a .996 Fld% at catcher, and a 25% CS%. Posada in contrast, hit .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, 1 SB (had to point that out), and a .363 OBP in 111 games. He posted just a .990 Fld%, although he did post a 28% CS%. Girardi was a scrappy player who got on base and played well defensively. Posada was a power hitter who had trouble just stopping errant pitches (Girardi had 10 passed balls compared to Posada's 31). Going by WAR, Posada had a much better season. But, was he worth almost 11 million dollars more? Either way, both players played important roles for their teams.
1B: Tino Martinez vs. Mark Teixeira
Let's look at the salaries again. 2.3 million dollars for Tino compared to 20.625 million dollars for Teix. Tino and Teix was much more similar than you would think based on their salaries. Tino hit .292 with 28 doubles, 25 homers, 117 RBI, 82 runs, and a .364 OBP in 155 games. Teix hit that same .292 with 43 doubles, 39 homers, 122 RBI, 103 runs, and a .383 OBP in 156 games. Tino posted a .996 Fld% at 1B compared to Teixeira's .997. First base might be the one position where both teams were very similar. Teixeira was a better player, but not by that much. Obviously, Teix isn't worth over 18 million dollars more than Tino. Both teams filled a very similar role for their respective teams- a power-hitting first baseman in the middle of the lineup who also plays well defensively.
2B: Mariano Duncan vs. Robinson Cano
The salary gap here isn't that far: 845,000 dollars for Duncan compared to 6 million dollars for Cano. They certainly had very different seasons. Duncan hit .340 with 34 doubles, 8 homers, 56 RBI, and just a .352 OBP (9 walks all year) in 109 games.Cano hit .320 with 48 doubles, 25 homers, 85 RBI, 103 runs, and a .352 OBP (30 walks) in 161 games. Defensively, Cano was far superior, posting a .984 Fld% at Duncan's .973. Duncan was an incredible hitter for average that had few other skills, while Cano was an amazing hitter who hit for average and power in addition to being a Gold Glover defensively. Cano was significantly better, but Duncan filled a nice niche for the 1996 team.
3B: Wade Boggs vs. Alex Rodriguez
2.05 million dollars versus 33 million. Oh my gosh. Boggs and A-rod are as different as night and day. Boggs hit .311 with 29 doubles, 2 homers, 41 RBI, 80 runs, 1 SB, and a .389 OBP in 132 games. A-rod hit .286 with 17 doubles, 30 homers, 100 RBI, 78 runs, 14 SB, and a .402 OBP in 124 games. Boggs posted a .974 Fld% at third base compared to .967 by A-rod. Boggs is a Hall of Famer because he was an amazing pure hitter. A-rod was once a good pure hitter (215 hits in 1996 and 213 in 1998), but is now known strictly as a power hitter. Boggs was a very good role player at that point in his career, while A-rod was still a superstar when he came back from injury. They contributed very different aspects to their teams; Boggs was a top-of-the-lineup kind of player who was a table-setter for the big hitters. A-rod, obviously, is a big hitter.
SS: Derek Jeter vs. Derek Jeter
The salary comparison isn't fair- Jeter was a rookie in '96 so of course he didn't a lot of money! He made just 160 thousand dollars compared to 21.6 million in 2009. Let's compare Jeter's seasons. He certainly had two Jeterian seasons. He hit .314 with 25 doubles, 10 homers, 78 RBI, 104 runs, 183 hits, 14 SB, and a .370 OBP in 157 games on his way to the AL Rookie of the Year. Like most rookie shortstops, he did struggle defensively, posting a .969 Fld% (although his range was must better than it is now). In '09, he also had a great season, hitting .334 with 27 doubles, 18 homers, 66 RBI, 107 runs, 212 hits, 30 SB, and a .406 OBP in 153 games. He posted a .986 Fld%. Jeter was a great player both back then and in '09 (maybe not really anymore).
LF: Gerald Williams/Tim Raines vs. Johnny Damon
Looking at the salaries, Damon easily made more than Williams and Raines combined. Raines made 2.1 million dollars and Williams made '200 thousand while Damon made 13 million. Williams had a below-average season, hitting .270 with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, 7 SB, and just a .319 OBP while posting just a .978 Fld% in LF, which was just slightly below league average, but you would expect more from a player who played most of his career in centerfield. To make things worse, he only had 1 assist. He was traded to the Brewers in August (through waivers). Raines meanwhile, was sidelined most of the year by a hamstring tear, but came back after Williams was traded. He did well, hitting .284 with 10 doubles, 9 homers, 33 RBI, 45 runs, and a .383 OBP in 59 games. He also posted an above average .988 Fld% in LF, with 3 assists. In 2009, Damon had a great season offensively, hitting .282 with 36 doubles, 24 homers, 82 RBI, 107 runs, 12 SB, and a .365 OBP in 143 games. But, he posted an astronomically below average .978 Fld% in LF (league average was .987). This guy was playing centerfield the year before! Anyway, Damon was certainly better than Gim Waines (Williams + Raines). But again, was he worth 10 million dollars more?
CF: Bernie Williams vs. Melky Cabrera
In terms of salaries, Bernie made 3 million dollars to Melky's 1.4 million. Bernie was certainly double as good as Melky. He hit .305 with 26 doubles, 29 homers, 102 RBI, 108 runs, 17 SB, and a .391 OBP in 143 games. He did post just a .986 Fld% in centerfield, which was below average, but he had 10 outfield assists, third in the league. He had an outstanding season. Not that Melky was bad at all. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .990 Fld% in the outfield, including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF, but he posted just 3 assists. In a battle of arbitration-eligible players (Bernie won in a hearing), Bernie was certainly a far superior player, although Melky filled an important role for the 2009 Yankees.
RF: Paul O'Neill vs. Nick Swisher
O'Neill and Swisher happened to make nearly the same amount of money, with O'Neill earning 5.3 million dollars and Swish earning 5.4. Both players had good seasons. O'Neill hit .302 with 35 doubles, 19 homers, 91 RBI, 89 runs, and a .411 OBP in 150 games. Swish hit .249 with 35 doubles, 29 homers, 82 RBI, 84 runs, and a .371 OBP in 150 games. O'Neill was superb defensively, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld% at RF with 7 assists, while Swish was still OK at .983 with 7 assists as well. They gave similar contributions to their teams (O'Neill was better), so they certainly deserved similar salaries.
DH: Ruben Sierra/Darryl Strawberry/Cecil Fielder vs. Hideki Matsui
The three headed monster at DH made a total of 6.5 million dollars, while Matsui made double that, 13 million dollars. Ruben Sierra was the DH for the '96 Yankees until July. But, he performed so poorly (.258 BA, .327 OBP, 11 homers in 96 games), that the Yankees traded him for Cecil Fielder at the deadline, and acquired Darryl Strawbery. (Fielder was actually in the middle of his last monster season, as he would go on to hit 39 homers and drive in 119 runs.) Decil Fieldberry hit 24 homers in a combined 116 games, hitting .261. (Darryl played a bit in the outfield and Fielder played some first base). All 3 players combined hit .260 with 35 homers and 125 RBI in 212 games. Matsui himself hit .274 with 28 homers and 90 RBI in 142 games. Advantage 2009. Might as well pay double for some stability rather than RubenDecil Sierra-Fieldberry. (Thank you BenJarvus Green-Ellis.)
Rotation:
The 1996 Yankees had a rotation of Andy Pettitte (21-8, 3.87 ERA), Kenny Rodgers (12-8, 4.68), Dwight Gooden (11-7, 5.01), Jimmy Key (12-11, 4.68), David Cone, who missed much of the year with an aneurysm (7-2, 2.88), and Ramiro Mendoza, who replaced him (4-5, 6.79). They earned a total of 11.467 million dollars. The 2009 Yankee rotation consisted of CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37), AJ Burnett (13-9, 4.04), Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16), Joba Chamberlain (9-6, 4.75), and Chien-Ming Wang/Sergio Mitre/Chad Gaudin (combined 6-9, 6.63, although Gaudin went 2-0, 3.43). They made 42 million, 718 thousand, 289 dollars. That's almost 4 times as much as '96. But their ERA was better, 4.40 compared to 4.56, but not THAT much better!
Closer: John Wetteland vs. Mariano Rivera
There's no comparison. Rivera earned so much more (15 million dollars to 4 million), but he pitched much better. He posted a 1.76 ERA and 44 saves compared to Wetteland's still great 2.83 ERA and 43 saves. Rivera isn't 11 million dollars better, but he certainly was (and is at least arguably) the best closer in baseball.
I couldn't compare everybody, but these are the cores of those teams. Salaries are certainly different now from then, so the salary comparison is not really fair. Still, the 2009 Yankees had five times the payroll of '96. But, they were both built off of free agents with some amount homegrown talent mixed in. That's the Yankee formula now, and it won't change anytime soon. The Yankees, even with their great talent in the minors right now, do not have a homegrown dynasty coming. No matter how great the prospects are, only the very best will make it, and the rest of the roster will be made up of players, superstars, and some role players, acquired via free agency and trades. Many of the second-best prospects might have great careers with other teams, but it just won't work out for them with the Yankees. Even after A-rod's, Teixeira's, and CC's contracts expire, we all know there will be new big contracts handed out. If they do their moves right, we'll see another dynasty coming soon.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Just how bad was Randy Winn?
On Friday, Curtis Granderson returned from the DL and the Yankees designated Randy Winn for assignment to make room for him. So, basically the Yanks are admitting that they wasted 1.1 million by signing Winn. So, that begs the question of just how bad was Randy Winn.
I was a little bit skeptical the moment the Yanks signed Winn (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/557725-yankees-lf-winn-is-the-answer), but I didn't think he would be this bad. See the link above (copy into your browser and click enter) for Winn's career stats and those kinds of things, but here I want to go into specifically how bad Winn was in '10.
Let's start with just the regular stats: Winn hit just .213 in '10 for the Yanks with 0 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homer, 8 RBI, 1 SB, and a .300 OBP. Those stats are really bad to begin with. At least defensively he has an 1.000 Fld% in LF and RF. So let's go inside those stats. Against righties, Winn (a switch-hitter) hit .260, but against lefties, he hit .000. That's right .000. That makes Granderson's .183 BA against lefties last year look good! And Winn's a switch-hitter! I know it was just 11 at-bats, but that's inexcusable. Away from Yankee stadium, Winn hit .250, but at home, Winn hit just .182. Or how about this one! In wins, Winn hit .188, and in losses, Winn hit .241. He hit better in losses! Isn't that the exact opposite of his name!
I know a lot of people who think that Randy Winn always gets out in the clutch. Well, they're all right. Winn hit just .120 with runners in scoring position, .118 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position, and just .118 with runners on base at all. And, with the bases empty, he hit .333. Anyone is clutch compared to Randy Winn so far in '10.
To be fair, Winn did have a couple of offensive stats in his favor. After batting just .077 in May, he did hit .250 in April. Also, he hit just .125 coming off the bench, but as a starter, he did hit .226. Maybe this wasn't completely Winn's fault. But, you can't expect to hit .213 without at least a decent amount of homers and RBI's (yes, I'm talking about Teixeira) and expect to remain a Yankee for very long. He got out-hit by Kevin Russo. I know Russo is playing well, but come on! Winn didn't deserve to get the chance to win in the Bronx.
I was a little bit skeptical the moment the Yanks signed Winn (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/557725-yankees-lf-winn-is-the-answer), but I didn't think he would be this bad. See the link above (copy into your browser and click enter) for Winn's career stats and those kinds of things, but here I want to go into specifically how bad Winn was in '10.
Let's start with just the regular stats: Winn hit just .213 in '10 for the Yanks with 0 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homer, 8 RBI, 1 SB, and a .300 OBP. Those stats are really bad to begin with. At least defensively he has an 1.000 Fld% in LF and RF. So let's go inside those stats. Against righties, Winn (a switch-hitter) hit .260, but against lefties, he hit .000. That's right .000. That makes Granderson's .183 BA against lefties last year look good! And Winn's a switch-hitter! I know it was just 11 at-bats, but that's inexcusable. Away from Yankee stadium, Winn hit .250, but at home, Winn hit just .182. Or how about this one! In wins, Winn hit .188, and in losses, Winn hit .241. He hit better in losses! Isn't that the exact opposite of his name!
I know a lot of people who think that Randy Winn always gets out in the clutch. Well, they're all right. Winn hit just .120 with runners in scoring position, .118 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position, and just .118 with runners on base at all. And, with the bases empty, he hit .333. Anyone is clutch compared to Randy Winn so far in '10.
To be fair, Winn did have a couple of offensive stats in his favor. After batting just .077 in May, he did hit .250 in April. Also, he hit just .125 coming off the bench, but as a starter, he did hit .226. Maybe this wasn't completely Winn's fault. But, you can't expect to hit .213 without at least a decent amount of homers and RBI's (yes, I'm talking about Teixeira) and expect to remain a Yankee for very long. He got out-hit by Kevin Russo. I know Russo is playing well, but come on! Winn didn't deserve to get the chance to win in the Bronx.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Some notes on the Yanks' crazy 11-9 win over Boston last night
Wow, what a game. It looked like a blowout win for the Yanks, then it looked like a terrible loss for them, and then it turned into a Yankees Classic. Besides all the drama, what made this game so special?
You may have noticed the home run totals in the game. The Yanks didn't have any homers until the bottom of the 9th will Boston had 5. Boston had 3 solo homers, a 2-run homer, and a 3-run homer. Homers accounted for all of Boston's runs except for the first one, an RBI single by Beltre to make the score 6-1 Yanks. In contrast, before the 2-run homers by A-rod and Thames in the bottom of the 9th, the Yankee scoring consisted of three RBI doubles, a 2-run single, an RBI single, and a sac fly. Another funny thing- did the Yanks forget about the "wind tunnel" in right field? Both of the Yankee homers were to LF or left-center, while 3 of the 5 Boston homers were to RF or right-center.
Despite all the homers, there was some pitching in this game. The order of the way the pitchers performed for Boston was interesting. Matsuzaka fell apart, giving up 6 runs on 9 hits in 4.2 innings. Then, Wakefield came in and shut the Yanks down, going 2.1 shutout innings and giving up only 1 hit. Bard then came in and threw a shutout inning, giving up no hits. Then of course, Papelbon came in and gave up 4 runs on 3 hits in 0.2 innings, blowing the save and getting the loss. So, if A were the terrible pitchers for Boston and B were the good pitchers for Boston, it would be ABBA- a chiastic structure. Does it have any significance? Well, maybe the pitching in the middle doesn't matter if your starter and closer have a terrible game. To prove this point, let's look at the Yankee pitching. Hughes had his first bad start of the year (it had to happen sometime, and he'll be fine moving forward), going 5 innings and giving up 5 runs on 6 hits. Boone Logan gave up 1 run in 1 inning on 2 hits. Park of course, continues to do badly, as he threw 1+ innings and gave up 3 runs on 4 hits, blowing the Yankee lead. (As a side note, Park his pitched in 4 games, and has given up the Yankee lead and been in line for the loss in two of them. Of course, the Yanks came back last night, so Park didn't get a loss). Then, Marte came in and pitched his heart out, throwing 1.2 innings of no run, 1 hit ball. Then, Vazquez came in and pitched 0.1 innings of no-run, no-hit ball, getting the win. So, only the last 2 Yankee pitchers gave up no runs. If A was bad pitchers and B was good pitchers, the Yankees yesterday would be AAABB. So, basically, it's really tough to win if your bullpen does badly at the end of games. Despite the bad start for Yankee pitching, Marte and Vazquez combined to shut out the Red Sox for the last two innings of the game, and that was enough for the Yanks to come back. (If you look, the Red Sox scored 3 runs in the 8th, but those were all when Park was pitching. After Marte came in, Boston didn't score any more runs in the inning.)
Back to the hitting. Every single starter in the game for both teams got a base hit except for Hermida for Boston. Only one base was stolen in the game, and not by Brett Gardner (who had 2 hits and a walk), but by Ramiro Pena. On both teams, every starter got an RBI besides the first 2 batters in the batting order and the last 2 batters in the batting order. On both teams, the second batter in the batting order drew the most walks on the team: Pedroia with 2 walks (the only 2 walks by Yankee pitching) and Brett Gardner with 1 walk (Jeter, Teixeira, and Miranda also had 1 walk each). All the homers on both teams were from "the heart of the order" (3 to 6 in the lineup).
One more thing about Park: when the stat sheet says "C Park faced 3 hitters in the 8th inning." (without recording an out), you know there's a problem.
Hope that's enough random stats for you.
You may have noticed the home run totals in the game. The Yanks didn't have any homers until the bottom of the 9th will Boston had 5. Boston had 3 solo homers, a 2-run homer, and a 3-run homer. Homers accounted for all of Boston's runs except for the first one, an RBI single by Beltre to make the score 6-1 Yanks. In contrast, before the 2-run homers by A-rod and Thames in the bottom of the 9th, the Yankee scoring consisted of three RBI doubles, a 2-run single, an RBI single, and a sac fly. Another funny thing- did the Yanks forget about the "wind tunnel" in right field? Both of the Yankee homers were to LF or left-center, while 3 of the 5 Boston homers were to RF or right-center.
Despite all the homers, there was some pitching in this game. The order of the way the pitchers performed for Boston was interesting. Matsuzaka fell apart, giving up 6 runs on 9 hits in 4.2 innings. Then, Wakefield came in and shut the Yanks down, going 2.1 shutout innings and giving up only 1 hit. Bard then came in and threw a shutout inning, giving up no hits. Then of course, Papelbon came in and gave up 4 runs on 3 hits in 0.2 innings, blowing the save and getting the loss. So, if A were the terrible pitchers for Boston and B were the good pitchers for Boston, it would be ABBA- a chiastic structure. Does it have any significance? Well, maybe the pitching in the middle doesn't matter if your starter and closer have a terrible game. To prove this point, let's look at the Yankee pitching. Hughes had his first bad start of the year (it had to happen sometime, and he'll be fine moving forward), going 5 innings and giving up 5 runs on 6 hits. Boone Logan gave up 1 run in 1 inning on 2 hits. Park of course, continues to do badly, as he threw 1+ innings and gave up 3 runs on 4 hits, blowing the Yankee lead. (As a side note, Park his pitched in 4 games, and has given up the Yankee lead and been in line for the loss in two of them. Of course, the Yanks came back last night, so Park didn't get a loss). Then, Marte came in and pitched his heart out, throwing 1.2 innings of no run, 1 hit ball. Then, Vazquez came in and pitched 0.1 innings of no-run, no-hit ball, getting the win. So, only the last 2 Yankee pitchers gave up no runs. If A was bad pitchers and B was good pitchers, the Yankees yesterday would be AAABB. So, basically, it's really tough to win if your bullpen does badly at the end of games. Despite the bad start for Yankee pitching, Marte and Vazquez combined to shut out the Red Sox for the last two innings of the game, and that was enough for the Yanks to come back. (If you look, the Red Sox scored 3 runs in the 8th, but those were all when Park was pitching. After Marte came in, Boston didn't score any more runs in the inning.)
Back to the hitting. Every single starter in the game for both teams got a base hit except for Hermida for Boston. Only one base was stolen in the game, and not by Brett Gardner (who had 2 hits and a walk), but by Ramiro Pena. On both teams, every starter got an RBI besides the first 2 batters in the batting order and the last 2 batters in the batting order. On both teams, the second batter in the batting order drew the most walks on the team: Pedroia with 2 walks (the only 2 walks by Yankee pitching) and Brett Gardner with 1 walk (Jeter, Teixeira, and Miranda also had 1 walk each). All the homers on both teams were from "the heart of the order" (3 to 6 in the lineup).
One more thing about Park: when the stat sheet says "C Park faced 3 hitters in the 8th inning." (without recording an out), you know there's a problem.
Hope that's enough random stats for you.
Friday, April 30, 2010
What's the history of Teixeira's struggles in April?
Mark Teixeira is hitting just .139 with 2 homers and 9 RBI's so far this April. Has he always been this bad in April?
In '09 with A-rod injured, Teixeira hit .200 in April with 3 homers and 10 RBI for the Yanks. But, in '08 he hit a much better .273 with 4 homers and 17 SB in April for the Braves. In fact, that year, he hit better in April than he did in May as he hit .268 in May in '08. Was the April slump only a thing that Teix has had with the Yankees?
In '07 with Texas in April, Teixeira hit .231 with 2 homers and just 6 RBI. But in '06, Teixeira had a good April, hitting .293 with 3 homers and 13 RBI. What is going on?
In April of '05 he did pretty well, hitting .261 with 6 homers and 14 RBI. In '04 in April, he hit .276 with 2 homers and 7 RBI. But in '03, he had a bad April hitting .188 with 2 homers and 7 RBI. It is it completely random for Teixeira?
Teixeira has hit .236 with 24 homers and 83 RBI during his career in April. To put the 24 homers and 83 RBI into prespective, Teixeira's month with the second least career homers is May with 39, and Teixeira's month was the second least RBI's is July with 119. Overall, Teixeira has been bad an April, but he has had at least decent Aprils three times in his 8 year career. Maybe he's due for a good April in 2011.
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