Gil Meche's sudden retirement shows that pitch counts do matter

For those of you who think that pitch counts are a complete joke, you're wrong.

On June 16th, 2009, Gil Meche had one of the best starts of his career. Through 8 innings, he had allowed no runs, and just 4 hits while striking out 5 and walking just one. He had thrown 110 pitches. Instead of bringing in a reliever to pitch the 9th in a 5-0 game, Royals manager Trey Hillman kept Meche in their. Meche retired the side 1-2-3 to complete his complete-game shutout, but he used 22 pitches to do so, finishing with 132 pitches on the day.

Gil Meche has retired from baseball at the age of 32. He said that he retired because of a shoulder injury that would have required surgery. After that fateful day, June 16th, 2009, Meche went just 2-10 with a 6.86 ERA. He was never the same after throwing 132 pitches in that game.

All the young pitchers are protected. They have innings limits and pitch count limits. Maybe so should the veterans too, to some extent.

Not all pitchers are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, or Cliff Lee. A lot of pitchers are much more fragile. The Mariners and the Royals weren't careful at all with Meche.

Two years after making his major league debut with the Mariners in 1999, Meche didn't appear in any major league games in 2001 and 2002 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. In 2003, he pitched 186.1 innings (going 15-3 with a 4.59 ERA), but he posted just a 6.19 ERA after June 20th. He had surpassed his career high for innings in the majors (he had thrown 175.2 innings between the majors and minors in 1999) in that June 20th start which lowered his ERA to 2.89. Fine, Meche only surpassed his career high for innings by just 9.2 IP, but remember that he was just coming off of Tommy John surgery. I'm not saying that the Mariners should have limited him so much after already missing two years to the surgery, but they shouldn't have let him surpass his career high for innings pitched.

In 2004, the Mariners seemingly made an adjustment for Meche, allowing him to throw just 127.2 major league innings, but don't be fooled- he pitched 57 innings at Triple-A as well. (He actually posted a higher ERA, 5.05, at Triple-A than in the majors, 5.01.) Finally in 2005, he was limited to just 143.1 IP, but he still posted a 5.09 ERA. Despite his second-straight year with an ERA over 5.00, the Mariners stuck with him in the last year under their control in '06, allowing him to throw a career high 186.2 innings, and he did pretty well, going 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA.

After the '06 season, the Royals made the stupid decision of signing Meche to a 5 year, 55 million dollar contract. But, after the first year of the contract, the Royals had appeared to make at least a decent deal. Meche had his best season, throwing a career-high 216 innings and going just 9-13 for the hapless Royals, but posting a 3.67 ERA, tying his career high for strikeouts (156), and walking just 62 batters for a great ratio of just 2.6 per 9 innings (he had a 4.0 career BB/9 ratio before '07). In '08, Meche did something few players can do: win 14 games on the Royals. He was the first one to win 14 games on the Royals since Paul Byrd in 2002. (Obviously Zach Greinke did it in his Cy Young season in '09 as well.) Meche went 14-11 with a 3.98 ERA and a career-high 183 K's in 34 starts and 210.1 IP.

Through June 17th, 2009, Meche seemed to be on pace for his best season. Through 14 starts he had a 3.31 ERA and 67 strikeouts compared to 31 walks in 84.1 IP. But, after his 132-pitch complete game shutout on June 16th, Meche went just 2-5 with an 8.46 ERA. A good pitcher never just collapses like that at age 30. It was the 132 pitches.

In 2010, Meche went just 0-5 with a 5.69 ERA and just 41 strikeouts versus 38 walks in 9 starts, 11 relief appearances, and 61.2 IP. He missed from May 25th to September 1st with his shoulder injury. His career was over at age 32 (his 32nd birthday was September 8th).

What's the message here? Two things: 1) you have to be somewhat careful with any pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery, and 2) no pitcher should be kept in for over 130 pitches except when ABSOLUTELY necessary. I'm not saying that pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery shouldn't throw 200 innings, but you have to let him work back up to a regular big league workload. Meche's career was sidetracked because the Mariners let him throw 186.1 innings right after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Then, after the Royals acquired him, they let him throw 216 innings, a jump of 30 innings from '06 to '07 and 50 IP over his average the previous two years. He was still 28 when the Royals got him, and even though they signed him to a big contract to be their ace, the Royals had to limit him somewhat to make sure that he could hold up all 5 years and still be effective. They didn't limit him at all, and not only was he not durable the past two years, but he couldn't even last the entirety of his contract. If I was the Royals I would have limited him to 200 innings in '07 and then let him pitch much a few more that that in '08 and around the same the rest of his deal. Again, they didn't and it cost them.

Let's go back to the trio above: Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Cliff Lee. We know all of them as innings eaters who often finish games. Halladay has thrown 130 or pitches in a game three times, one time each of the past three seasons. CC has throw over 130 pitches in a game just once in his career, during his wild card chase with the Brewers in '08. Cliff Lee has NEVER thrown 130 or more pitches in a game. Even for veterans, you can't throw pitch counts completely out the window. In non-must-win games, no pitcher should throw 130 or more pitches in a game, even if they're throwing a no-hitter (I'm talking to you, D-backs, about Edwin Jackson who you let throw a crazy 149 pitches in his 8-walk no-hitter).

We know that there are many young pitchers right now who could become the next Gil Meche by being overworked, especially after Tommy John surgery, and being forced to retire early. Teams, don't let that happen.

Are the Yankees doomed without Pettitte?

Andy Pettitte will make a decision on his future within the next couple days. Will that decision determine the Yankees' fate in 2011?

The Yankees have a great lineup, but the obvious question is their pitching. CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 in '10) is a rock-solid ace, and Phil Hughes is a solid pitcher (18-8, 4.19), but after that, the rotation really tails off. Who knows what the Yankees are going to get from AJ Burnett (10-15, 5.26)? Then of course, without Pettitte, there's a huge competition for the 4th and 5th starter spots. The favorites are Ivan Nova (1-2 4.50 in the majors and 12-3, 2.86 at Triple-A) and Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33, but just a 5.93 ERA as a starter). The other options currently are David Phelps (10-2, 2.50 between Double-A and Triple-A), Andrew Brackman (5-7, 3.01 at Double-A, but strangely 5-4, 5.10 at High-A), and Hector Noesi (14-7, 3.20 between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A). Among those "other" options, I would think that only Phelps has any shot because Brackman and Noesi have a combined 3 games at Triple-A. The glaring omission from my list is Manny Banuelos (0-4, 2.51), but he has logged only 3 games at Double-A, so he's not ready yet. So, two of Mitre, Nova, and Phelps will be starters for the Yankees if Pettitte retires. Oh my gosh.

Pettitte went 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 101 K's in 21 starts and 129 IP. Of course, he missed two months with a groin injury. Would Pettitte be able to stay healthy in 2011? That's a big question. But, he would be very effective even if he posts a 4.20 ERA (like Hughes) in around 20 starts and is available for the playoffs.

Ivan Nova had a very interesting 7 starts in the majors. He went 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his starts. In the first inning he posted a 1.29 ERA. In the second inning, he posted a 0.00 ERA. What? He didn't even walk a single batter! In the third inning he posted a 6.43 ERA, but whatever, he posted a 2.57 ERA in the 4th inning. But then, he allowed a 15.00 ERA in the 5th inning. Wow. That's not good. He allowed as many homers (2) as he allowed every other inning COMBINED. Even when he survived the 5th, he posted a 6.43 ERA in the 6th. He just couldn't finish his 5 innings. To put it another way, he allowed a .196 BA the first time through the order, a .246 BA the second time through, and then a .400 BA the third time through! Every hitter turned into Ted Williams against him! (Fine, just almost as good- Williams hit .402.) But, the question is, was Nova's decline late in games a fluke or not? There are two reason that it was probably (not definitely) a fluke. Nova threw 187 innings between the majors and minors, easily his most ever, so maybe fatigue was a factor as he passed his previous high for innings (which he was 0.2 IP short of when he was promoted to the majors to stay in August). Also, Nova got really unlucky. And I really mean that. Overall, Nova allowed a .296 BAbip (batting average on balls in play), right around the league average, but he allowed a .444 BAbip with runners in scoring position. That's crazy. I doubt that not being able to finish his starts will not be as much of a problem for Nova in 2011.

Sergio Mitre. Please Andy, come back so we don't have to see this guy in the rotation. Mitre has a 13-25 record as a starter with a 5.48 ERA. How has he started 64 games? At least as a reliever he's posted a 4.34 ERA. It's not like anything's weird with Mitre. He has a .312 career BAbip, so that doesn't make his stats look any better. In all 9 innings, Mitre has allowed a BA over .265 and under .333. He's just not good as a starter, there's no two ways about it. I hope the Yankees don't make the mistake of putting Mitre in their rotation.

Would I be more confident in David Phelps as the 5th starter than I would be in Sergio Mitre? I think so. Phelps, who turned 24 in October, has never been regarded as an elite prospect yet he has performed well at every level of the minors. Phelps has a 2.50 ERA, nearly as good as Phil Hughes' 2.37 minor league ERA (I went more into that comparison here) and he has never repeated any level of the minors for any period of time. He isn't a strikeout pitcher (7.4 career K/9), but he has great control (2.0 career BB/9). He has also allowed just 0.5 homers per 9 innings. Most of all, Phelps is a winner, as evidenced by his 31-8 career record. Keep in mind that Ivan Nova was just 35-32 in his minor league career (3.80 ERA). Will Phelps be a competitor for Rookie of the Year is given that 5th starter job? Probably not. But, he should be able to post a 4.50 ERA and keep the Yankees in his starts.

Andy, please come back. Ivan Nova is pretty good and David Phelps might end up being a fine pitcher himself (Yankees, please don't make Mitre the 5th starter!), but Pettitte would certainly be better than either of them. Pettitte is pretty likely not to stay healthy the whole year, so Phelps would probably get his chance anyway (again, please Yankees, don't put Mitre in the rotation). Maybe the Yankees should sign a minor league free agent to compete with Nova and Phelps (and Mitre) if Pettitte retires, but if I was Brian Cashman, I wouldn't be too aggressive signing any of the remaining starters or doing some stupid move (i.e. Bartolo Colon).

A brief thought on Cliff Lee going to the Phillies

Everybody is shocked. How the heck did Cliff Lee turn down both the Yankees' money and the Rangers' proximity to his home an his great experience there this past season? Well, after thinking about it, there is a simple reason that Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies. Lee's plan was to go to Philadelphia the whole time. The only question was whether the Phillies would make an offer that was anywhere near the offers of the Yankees and Phillies. They did, so he signed. But, what was Lee's reasoning behind the move? He never wanted to leave. Lee and his wife loved Philadelphia. Lee had spent just half a season there, but was already talking about a contract extension after the season. But, then the Phillies traded for Roy Halladay, and apparently because of budget issues (how ironic!), they were forced to trade Lee to Seattle. Lee was upset, but he appeared to move on after the season started. He then got traded to Texas, led them to a World Series, and started saying 'we' when referring to the team. Acting like that to the Mariners and Rangers was just a negotiation strategy. He even had his wife look for a house in New York with CC Sabathia's wife, possibly for an ulterior motive as well. Acting like such a 'darling' with the other teams made them think they had a chance at signing him (the Mariners tried to sign Lee to an extension) to up the Phillies' offer. It was a great a move by Lee and his agent, but as a Yankee fan I hate it, and so should all other Yankee fans and all Ranger fans. He used us all.

What if Joba did have to come up to bat?

In Monday's 3-1 loss to the Tigers, Derek Jeter grounded into a game-ending double play with Joba Chamberlain on double deck. If you weren't watching the game, Alex Rodriguez left the game with a calf injury and was replaced by Ramiro Pena. Pena was then pinch-hit for by Marcus Thames and Francisco Cervelli moved from catcher to 3rd base to replace Thames and Jorge Posada moved from DH to catcher to replace Cervelli, so the Yankees lost their DH. The Yankees had a empty bench because Lance Berkman was injured and Nick Swisher had also left the game with right forearm tightness and Austin Kearns went to RF to replace him. So, let's say that Jeter beat out the relay throw to 1st (he actually almost did because Brett Gardner took 2B Carlos Guillen out at 2nd base). Then, it would be 1st and 3rd with 2 outs, a 3-2 score, and Mark Teixeira coming to the plate. The Tigers would then obviously intentionally walk Teix to bring up Joba with the bases loaded. What would the Yankees do?

The first thought would be to pinch-hit Berkman even though he was injured, but Girardi wouldn't do that because he wouldn't want to gamble with the rest of Berman's season to win one game. So, the only possible pinch-hitters were all pitchers. If the Yankees did decide to pinch-hit, it would have probably been either CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, or Mariano Rivera.

Joba is 0 for 5 at the plate in his MLB career with a walk and 2 sac bunts. He never had an AB in the minors.

CC is 25 for 97 (.258) in his career with 3 homers and 14 RBI. He's a decent hitter. But, he was the next day's starter.

AJ is 35 for 267 in his career (.131) with 3 homers and 9 RBI. He's not the worst hitter ever.

Mo is 0 for 3 with a walk and an RBI. You may remember his bases loaded walk against K-rod on the same night that he got his 500th save. Would the Yankees hope for the same magic? If he did walk (or get a base hit), he would stay in the game to pitch the 10th.

I would pinch-hit CC. If Valverde gave him a hittable pitch, CC could have gotten a walk-off hit. He probably would have gotten out, but you never know. If Girardi didn't want to take a chance that CC could get hurt, he would have either stuck with Joba or sent up Mo because there was no point of sending up Burnett. No matter who the Yankees sent up, the Yankees would have probably lost the game anyway, but who knows? Maybe Valverde's wildness could have continued and he walked whoever the Yankees sent up to bat, or, maybe he could have given CC, Joba, or Mo a mistake pitch and most unlikely walkoff ever could have occurred. It sure would have been a sight to see.