Gil Meche's sudden retirement shows that pitch counts do matter

For those of you who think that pitch counts are a complete joke, you're wrong.

On June 16th, 2009, Gil Meche had one of the best starts of his career. Through 8 innings, he had allowed no runs, and just 4 hits while striking out 5 and walking just one. He had thrown 110 pitches. Instead of bringing in a reliever to pitch the 9th in a 5-0 game, Royals manager Trey Hillman kept Meche in their. Meche retired the side 1-2-3 to complete his complete-game shutout, but he used 22 pitches to do so, finishing with 132 pitches on the day.

Gil Meche has retired from baseball at the age of 32. He said that he retired because of a shoulder injury that would have required surgery. After that fateful day, June 16th, 2009, Meche went just 2-10 with a 6.86 ERA. He was never the same after throwing 132 pitches in that game.

All the young pitchers are protected. They have innings limits and pitch count limits. Maybe so should the veterans too, to some extent.

Not all pitchers are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, or Cliff Lee. A lot of pitchers are much more fragile. The Mariners and the Royals weren't careful at all with Meche.

Two years after making his major league debut with the Mariners in 1999, Meche didn't appear in any major league games in 2001 and 2002 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. In 2003, he pitched 186.1 innings (going 15-3 with a 4.59 ERA), but he posted just a 6.19 ERA after June 20th. He had surpassed his career high for innings in the majors (he had thrown 175.2 innings between the majors and minors in 1999) in that June 20th start which lowered his ERA to 2.89. Fine, Meche only surpassed his career high for innings by just 9.2 IP, but remember that he was just coming off of Tommy John surgery. I'm not saying that the Mariners should have limited him so much after already missing two years to the surgery, but they shouldn't have let him surpass his career high for innings pitched.

In 2004, the Mariners seemingly made an adjustment for Meche, allowing him to throw just 127.2 major league innings, but don't be fooled- he pitched 57 innings at Triple-A as well. (He actually posted a higher ERA, 5.05, at Triple-A than in the majors, 5.01.) Finally in 2005, he was limited to just 143.1 IP, but he still posted a 5.09 ERA. Despite his second-straight year with an ERA over 5.00, the Mariners stuck with him in the last year under their control in '06, allowing him to throw a career high 186.2 innings, and he did pretty well, going 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA.

After the '06 season, the Royals made the stupid decision of signing Meche to a 5 year, 55 million dollar contract. But, after the first year of the contract, the Royals had appeared to make at least a decent deal. Meche had his best season, throwing a career-high 216 innings and going just 9-13 for the hapless Royals, but posting a 3.67 ERA, tying his career high for strikeouts (156), and walking just 62 batters for a great ratio of just 2.6 per 9 innings (he had a 4.0 career BB/9 ratio before '07). In '08, Meche did something few players can do: win 14 games on the Royals. He was the first one to win 14 games on the Royals since Paul Byrd in 2002. (Obviously Zach Greinke did it in his Cy Young season in '09 as well.) Meche went 14-11 with a 3.98 ERA and a career-high 183 K's in 34 starts and 210.1 IP.

Through June 17th, 2009, Meche seemed to be on pace for his best season. Through 14 starts he had a 3.31 ERA and 67 strikeouts compared to 31 walks in 84.1 IP. But, after his 132-pitch complete game shutout on June 16th, Meche went just 2-5 with an 8.46 ERA. A good pitcher never just collapses like that at age 30. It was the 132 pitches.

In 2010, Meche went just 0-5 with a 5.69 ERA and just 41 strikeouts versus 38 walks in 9 starts, 11 relief appearances, and 61.2 IP. He missed from May 25th to September 1st with his shoulder injury. His career was over at age 32 (his 32nd birthday was September 8th).

What's the message here? Two things: 1) you have to be somewhat careful with any pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery, and 2) no pitcher should be kept in for over 130 pitches except when ABSOLUTELY necessary. I'm not saying that pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery shouldn't throw 200 innings, but you have to let him work back up to a regular big league workload. Meche's career was sidetracked because the Mariners let him throw 186.1 innings right after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Then, after the Royals acquired him, they let him throw 216 innings, a jump of 30 innings from '06 to '07 and 50 IP over his average the previous two years. He was still 28 when the Royals got him, and even though they signed him to a big contract to be their ace, the Royals had to limit him somewhat to make sure that he could hold up all 5 years and still be effective. They didn't limit him at all, and not only was he not durable the past two years, but he couldn't even last the entirety of his contract. If I was the Royals I would have limited him to 200 innings in '07 and then let him pitch much a few more that that in '08 and around the same the rest of his deal. Again, they didn't and it cost them.

Let's go back to the trio above: Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Cliff Lee. We know all of them as innings eaters who often finish games. Halladay has thrown 130 or pitches in a game three times, one time each of the past three seasons. CC has throw over 130 pitches in a game just once in his career, during his wild card chase with the Brewers in '08. Cliff Lee has NEVER thrown 130 or more pitches in a game. Even for veterans, you can't throw pitch counts completely out the window. In non-must-win games, no pitcher should throw 130 or more pitches in a game, even if they're throwing a no-hitter (I'm talking to you, D-backs, about Edwin Jackson who you let throw a crazy 149 pitches in his 8-walk no-hitter).

We know that there are many young pitchers right now who could become the next Gil Meche by being overworked, especially after Tommy John surgery, and being forced to retire early. Teams, don't let that happen.

A brief thought on Cliff Lee going to the Phillies

Everybody is shocked. How the heck did Cliff Lee turn down both the Yankees' money and the Rangers' proximity to his home an his great experience there this past season? Well, after thinking about it, there is a simple reason that Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies. Lee's plan was to go to Philadelphia the whole time. The only question was whether the Phillies would make an offer that was anywhere near the offers of the Yankees and Phillies. They did, so he signed. But, what was Lee's reasoning behind the move? He never wanted to leave. Lee and his wife loved Philadelphia. Lee had spent just half a season there, but was already talking about a contract extension after the season. But, then the Phillies traded for Roy Halladay, and apparently because of budget issues (how ironic!), they were forced to trade Lee to Seattle. Lee was upset, but he appeared to move on after the season started. He then got traded to Texas, led them to a World Series, and started saying 'we' when referring to the team. Acting like that to the Mariners and Rangers was just a negotiation strategy. He even had his wife look for a house in New York with CC Sabathia's wife, possibly for an ulterior motive as well. Acting like such a 'darling' with the other teams made them think they had a chance at signing him (the Mariners tried to sign Lee to an extension) to up the Phillies' offer. It was a great a move by Lee and his agent, but as a Yankee fan I hate it, and so should all other Yankee fans and all Ranger fans. He used us all.

Dustin Ackley dominates the AFL

2009 number 2 overall pick 2nd baseman Dustin Ackley has finally lived up to his potential. In his first minor league season, the Mariners prospect was hitting just .203 on May 27th at Double-A. It was such a big deal that I did a post on it! (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/655065-whats-going-on-with-mariners-top-prospect-dustin-ackley). But, Ackley rebounded to do OK at Double-A, hitting .263 with 21 doubles, 2 homers, 28 RBI, 8 SB, and a .389 OBP in 82 games. He was then promoted to Triple-A, and did better, hitting .274 with 12 doubles, 5 homers, 23 RBI, 2 SB, and a .338 OBP in 52 games. After starting off badly at Double-A, he rebounded and did even better at Triple-A. Still, he didn't play like a #2 overall pick should. Well, Ackley has finally started playing like a #2 overall pick in the Arizona Fall League. He has hit .400 with 4 doubles, 3 homers, 11 RBI, and a .554 OBP in 12 games. That's ridiculous. He's tied for 4th in the AFL in BA, tied for 2nd in homers, tied for 10th in RBI (with among others Yankee prospect Brandon Laird), and leads the AFL in OBP. This is the Ackley everyone expected.

So, why did he struggle during the minor league season? Because he was a 1st baseman and outfielder in college. He had to adjust to 2nd base defensively and because of that adjustment, he struggled at the plate for a while. Once he made the adjustment, he got back to being the great hitter he was in college.

Should the Yankees have traded for Lee?

The Rangers acquired Cliff Lee in exchange for Justin Smoak and 3 other prospects. The Mariners thought it was a good offer, even better than the Yankees' offer of Jesus Montero and 3 other prospects. They must have thought that Smoak will be a star. Were they wrong?

Smoak was the 11th overall pick in the loaded first round of the 2008 MLB draft. There obviously were busts (most notably #1 overall pick Tim Beckham), but the players that have panned out are Pedro Alvarez (#2 overall), Brian Matusz (#4), Buster Posey (#5), and Gordon Beckham (#8). Ike Davis (#18) was drafted after Smoak. I realize that it's not completely fair to compare Smoak to the players, but let's do it anyway.

It took Alvarez just 1.5 seasons to get to the majors. He hit .288 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 126 games between Low-A Lynchburg and Double-A Altoona in '09. After hitting .277 with 15 doubles, 13 homers, 53 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 66 games for Triple-A Indianapolis, Alvarez was called up to the majors. Alvarez had a pretty good year after being called up on June 16th, hitting just .256, but with 21 doubles, 16 homers, and 64 RBI. His OBP was .326. He does need work defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at 3rd base. He will be just 23 in '11, so he will have time to develop into a better player both offensively and defensively at the major league level. Alvarez is a nice young player who will be a cornerstone of the Pirates for years to come.

Brian Matusz made it to the majors in under 1 season. After a dominating minor league season in '09 between Low-A Frederick and Double-A, Matusz made it to the majors at age 22. Matusz went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 121 K's in 19 starts and 113 innings in the minors, and 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 38 K's in 8 starts and and 44.2 IP in the majors. Matusz improved in '10, going 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA and 143 K's in 32 starts and 175.2 IP. Matusz was just 4-12 with a 5.28 ERA on August 13th, but went undefeated the rest of the year, going 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 8 starts. The Orioles won all 8 of those games. Matusz really has a promising future. Pretty soon he will be the Orioles' ace.

Buster Posey dominated the minors for parts of 3 seasons before making it to the majors at age 22. Unlike Alvarez and Matusz, Posey signed soon enough to play in '08. He played in 10 games between Rookie ball and SS-A Salem Keizer, hitting .351 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, and a .467 OBP. It was a sign of things to come. Posey had another great season in '09, hitting .325 with 31 doubles, 18 homers, 80 RBI, 84 runs, and a .416 OBP in 115 games between High-A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. But, Posey had 14 passed balls at catcher, so he began '10 at Fresno. He hit very well once again, hitting .349 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 32 RBI, and a .442 OBP in 47 games while only allowing one passed ball. He was then promoted to the majors, and is a candidate to win NL Rookie of the Year. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He posted a .991 Fld% at catcher, throwing out 37% of attempted base stealers, and allowing just 1 passed ball. He is a very talented player who will be the catcher for the Giants for a long time.

Gordon Beckham took just 1 full season in the minors to make the majors at age 22. After signing early enough to play in '08, Beckham hit .310 with 2 doubles, 3 homers, and 8 RBI, and a .365 OBP in 14 games at Low-A Kannapolis. It was a stepping stone to a great season. He hit .326 with 23 doubles, 4 homers, 25 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 45 games between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte before being promoted to the majors. He did OK in the majors, hitting .270 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 63 RBI, and a .347 OBP in 103 games. But, he posted a below-average .952 Fld% at 3rd base. He was the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year and finished 5th in the real voting. He had a bit of a sophmore slump in '10, hitting .252 with 25 doubles, 9 homers, 49 RBI, and a .317 OBP in 131 games. Part of the problem was that he was moved to 2nd base, where he posted a below average .981 Fld%. But, he hit .320 from July 20th to the end of the year. Whatever his problem was, he fixed it. He should be a White Sox' infielder for a long time. Despite his sub-par year, I wouldn't be too surprised if the White Sox lock him up long term.

Davis needed 1.5 full seasons in the minors before making the majors at age 23. He signed the earliest among this group, and ended up playing 58 games for SS-A Brooklyn and was a disappointment. He hit just .256 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 17 RBI, and a .326 OBP. But, that was the last time that Davis was a disappointment. He hit .298 in '09 between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton with 31 doubles, 20 homers, 71 RBI, and a .381 OBP in 114 games. After just 10 games for Triple-A Buffalo in '10 in which he hit .364 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 4 RBI, and a .500 OBP, Davis was promoted to the majors. He had a great rookie season, hitting .264 with 33 doubles, 19 homers, 71 RBI, and a .341 OBP in 147 games. He was right at the league average with a .993 Fld% at 1st base. I'll make a bold statement and say that he's the next David Wright. He'll be a fixture at 1st base for the Mets.

Well, I've gone through everybody else. So, how good is Smoak?

In his first taste of pro ball in '08, Smoak hit .304 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 6 RBI in 14 games at Low-A Clinton. He didn't make any errors in 10 games at 1st base. It was definitely a nice showing, albeit in such a short period of time.

In '09, Smoak worked his way all the way up to Triple-A. After hitting .667 with 2 homers and 5 RBI at Rookie ball, Smoak was promoted to Double-A Frisco where he hit .328 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, and a .449 OBP in 50 games. It was a great showing, and he appeared to be on the fast track to the majors. He was so good at Frisco that he was brought up to Triple-A Oklahoma City, but there he struggled. In 54 games, Smoak hit just .244 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, and 23 RBI. But, Smoak did post a .363 OBP,which was great when considering his Low BA. But, he was just 23 years old, so he could adjust to Triple-A in '10.

Did Smoak make that adjustment? Well, after 15 games at Oklahoma City, Smoak hit .300 with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 5 RBI before being rushed to the majors. Smoak had his moments with the Rangers, but mostly he struggled. He hit just .209, but with 10 doubles, 8 homers, and 34 RBI. He posted a .318 OBP. Then of course, he was traded to the Mariners in the Lee trade. He remained with the Mariners from July 10th to July 29th and struggled mightily. He hit just .159 with 1 double, 2 homers, and 5 RBI in 16 games. To compound the problem, he posted just a .169 OBP, walking once and striking out 23 skill. After that terrible showing, Smoak was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma. He did just OK for Tacoma, hitting .271 with 7 doubles, 7 homers, and 25 RBI, although he did post a .377 OBP. But, somehow the work at Triple-A helped him, and he was a different player when he came back to the majors on September 18th. He hit .340 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 14 games from September 18th to October 3rd. Overall in '10, Smoak hit .218 with 14 doubles, 13 homers, 48 RBI, and a .307 OBP in 100 games. It was a disappointment, but the Mariners hope his great finish to the year will carry over into '11. He will have 1 major league season under his belt (he will be 24), and the Mariners hope that experience will jump-start a great career.

Among the others, Smoak is certainly not the best right now. Posey is far and away the top player in this group, then Davis, Alvarez, and Beckham in that order before Smoak. But, does he have the ability to be a great player? Well, the Mariners must think so. If he really deserved the Teixeira comparisons he was getting while on the Rangers, then he will be a great player.

Will the Lee trade end up being a good trade for the Mariners? There are 3 other players that Seattle acquired, but the trade will end up being graded based on Smoak's performance. If he never becomes a star, it was a bad trade. As of now, if I were a Mariners fan, I would have wished for Lee to be traded to the Yankees for Montero.

The roller coaster that is Cliff Lee's career

We all know Cliff Lee as that dominant starter with great control, but he certainly wasn't always like that. A 4th round pick by the Expos, Lee had a terrible pro debut in 2000, going 1-4 with a 5.24 ERA in 11 starts for Short Season-A Cape Fear. He did strike out 63 batters in 44.2 IP, but he also allowed 52 hits and 36 walks. But, in 2001, Lee dominated for High-A Jupiter. He went 6-7, but he posted a 2.79 ERA and 132 K's in 20 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 109.2 IP. He allowed just 78 hits and 46 walks and posted a great 2.8 K/H. After going 7-2 with a 3.23 ERA and 105 K's in 15 starts for Double-A Harrisburg, he was traded in the blockbuster deal that sent Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Lee Stevens to the Indians in exchange for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew. After struggling at Double-A Akron in 3 starts (5.40 ERA), he was promoted to Triple-A Buffalo and went 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 8 starts. He had a brief 'cup of coffee' in September for the Indians, going 0-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 2 starts. In '03, he went 7-1 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 starts at 3 different levels of the minors (including 6-1, 3.27 at Triple-A) before being promoted to the majors. He went 3-3 with a 3.61 ERA in 9 starts for Cleveland. In '04, his first full season in the big leagues, Lee certainly had his ups and downs. He went 14-8 with 161 K's in 33 starts and 179 innings, but he posted a 5.43 ERA and gave up 188 hits. He went 9-1 with a 3.77 ERA in the first half, but 5-7 with a 7.91 ERA in the second half. But, he closed the season well, winning his last 2 starts and posting a 2.03 ERA.

The great finish in '04 carried over into '05 for Lee. He had his first great season, going 18-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 143 K's in 33 starts and 202 IP. He allowed just 194 hits. He was much more consistent, going 9-4 with a 3.89 ERA in the first half and 9-1 with a 3.66 ERA in th, e second half. But, in '06, the consistency disappeared. He went 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA and 129 K's in 33 starts and 200.2 IP. He just allowed way too many hits (224). Lee went 8-6 with a 4.76 ERA in the first half before rebounding to go 6-5 with a 3.96 ERA in the 2nd half. In '07, Lee just plain collapsed. He went 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA and just 66 K's in 16 starts, 4 relief appearances and 97.1 IP. He allowed 112 hits, once again over a hit per inning. All 8 of his loses came on streaks of 4 straight loses in 4 consecutive starts. He was so bad that he was sent down for 10 starts in the minors and was left off Cleveland's postseason roster. Lee's strikeout total went down every year from '04 to '07. Although he proved he could be a good pitcher without striking too many batters out in '05, he allowed too many hits in '04, '06, and '07 to be successful without striking out batters at a higher rate.

Lee finally got the memo to give up less hits in '08. In doing so, he dominated, going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 170 K's in 31 starts and 223.1 IP on his way to the AL Cy Young Award. He allowed just 214 hits and 34 walks. Lee seemingly carried the success into '09, going just 7-9, but with a 3.14 ERA and 105 K's in 22 starts for the Indians before being traded to the Phillies. But, Lee allowed 165 hits in 152 IP. He just pitched with runners on, not allowing many of them to score. For the Phillies, he actually did worse. He went 7-4, but with a 3.39 ERA and 74 K's in 12 starts and 79.2 IP. But, he was dominant in the postseason. In 5 postseason starts, he went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA, including 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA against the Yankees in the World Series. He struck out 33 and walked only 6 in 40.1 IP. Still, after the season, he was traded to the Mariners shortly when the Phillies acquired Roy Halladay. In '09 for the Mariners, he regained his '08 form. After missing the first month of the season with an abdominal strain, he went 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 89 K's in 13 starts and 103.2 IP. But, the most amazing stat of all was that he walked just 6 batters. Six! His K/BB ratio was 14.83, which would be the best ever for a full season. (His current K/BB ratio of 13.42 between the Mariners and Rangers would still be the best ever by a wide margin.) He was then traded to the Rangers on July 9th, and he's been a complete disaster. He has gone just 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA and 72 K's in 11 starts and 80.2 IP. He has allowed 85 hits, over a hit per inning, but he has walked just 6 batters. But, the Rangers might have found the reason Lee has struggled: lower back inflamation. Lee got an injection and will try to get back on track against the Yankees tomorrow.

Lee has had good years and bad years, but at the end of the day he has a 100-60 career record with a 3.89 ERA. He has gone from demoted to the minor leagues to AL Cy Young and from a dominant pitcher for Seattle to a disaster for Texas. He has been good overall, but he has shown inconsistency. Would you want to commit to this guy for 5 years? The Yankees and the other bidders when Lee will be a free agent this offseason will have to make that decision.

Should the Yankees have traded for Lee?

Just looking at this title of this post, you're wondering what the heck I'll walking about. Didn't the Mariners call off the trade, not the Yankees? Let me explain. The trade was all but settled. Cliff Lee to the Yanks for minor leaguers Jesus Montero, a catcher, David Adams, a 2nd baseman, and Zach McAllister, a RHP. Apparently, that deal fell through because Adams is on the 7-day DL with a high ankle sprain and the Mariners were worried. The Yankees offered to switch Adams out for a different prospect (I would guess minor league INF Eduardo Nunez), but the Mariners wanted another pitching prospect also (Ivan Nova or Jeremy Bleich) and the price was too high. The Yankees pulled out of the trade. Then, the Rangers swooped in and acquired Lee and reliever Mark Lowe in exchange for Justin Smoak, a rookie 1st baseman, and minor league RHP's Josh Lueke and RHP Blake Beavan, along with minor league 2nd baseman Matthew Lawson.

Let's look at the players that the Yankee would have traded to Seattle for Lee. Should they pulled the trigger on the trade?

Lee has been ridiculous this year, going 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 89 K's in 13 starts and 103.2 IP. He has walked just 6 batters, and has 5 complete games including 1 shutout. He has been incredible.

Montero is hitting .253 at Triple-A Scranton with 19 doubles, 6 homers, 35 RBI, and a .329 OBP in 77 games. In '09, he hit .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. His '09 season solidified him as a top prospect. In fact, Montero was considered the top prospect in the Yankees' system enering this year by Baseball America. Montero, just 20 years old, is not considered to have a future as a catcher in the big leagues. By staying within the Yankee system, he remains the Yankees' DH of the future if nothing else.

Adams is hitting .309 at Double-A Trenton with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, 5 SB, and a .393 OBP in 39 games. In '09, Adams hit .286 with 40 doubles, 7 homers, 75 RBI, 8 triples, 11 SB, and a .373 OBP in 132 games between Low-A Charleston and High-A Trenton. That season solidified Adams as the Yankees' 22nd best prospect in their system entering this year according to Baseball America. Adams, a third round pick by the Yankees in '08, is considered to be a decent defender. Adams was definitely an X-factor in this trade because after the Mariners made the Yankees pull him out of the trade because of his injury, the Mariners asked for 2 players to replace him. Adams, already 23 years old, doesn't seem to be young enough to have a future as a starter in the Yankee infield.

McAllister has gone 7-5 at Triple-A Scranton with a 4.45 ERA and 57 K's in 17 starts and 95 IP. He was the Yankees 5th rated prospect by Baseball America entering this year after going 7-5 with a 2.23 ERA and 96 K's in 22 starts and 121 IP for Double-A Trenton in '09. McAllister, 22 years old, was a 3rd round draft pick out of high school in '06. He certainly has a chance for a spot in the Yankee rotation at some point.

Nunez is hitting .304 at Triple-A Scranton, with 19 doubles, 3 homers, 40 RBI, 18 SB, and a .352 OBP in 86 games. He was the Yankees' 14th best prospect by Baseball America entering this year after hitting .322 with 26 doubles, 9 homers, 55 RBI, 19 SB, and a .349 OBP in 123 games for Double-A Trenton in '09. Nunez, who recently turned 23, is a solid defender who has played mostly SS in the minors. He also has experience at 2nd base and 3rd base. Nunez is probably going to be a utility player for the Yankees in a year or two.

Nova has gone 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 73 K's in 16 starts and 97.2 IP for Triple-A Scranton. In a brief major league call-up, he made 2 relief appearances, giving up no runs on 4 hits in 3 IP. He was the Yankees' 16th best prospect entering this year by Baseball America after going 6-8 with a 3.68 ERA and 90 K's in 24 starts and 139.1 IP between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton. He will also be competing for the Yankee rotation in a year or two.

Bleich, a 23 year old lefty, has gone 3-2 at Double-A Trenton this year, with a 4.79 ERA and 26 K's in 8 starts and 41.1 IP. He was the Yankees' 9th best prospect entering this year by Baseball America after going 9-10 with a 4.86 ERA and 116 K's in 27 starts and 144.1 IP between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. He has good stuff, but has had some control problems. He seems at least 3 years away from having any impact in the majors.

So, in the original trade, the Yankees would have given up their best, 5th best, and 22nd best prospects in exchange for a perennial Cy Young candidate. That sounds like a fair trade. But, when you take out the 22nd prospect and put in the 14th best prospect and the 9th or 16th best prospect, it would seem that the Yankees would be giving away too much. Maybe pulling out of the trade could be a good move by the Yankees. They can keep their prospects and sign Lee this offseason.

What's going with Mariners top prospect Dustin Ackley?

The number 1 overall pick in the 2009 MLB draft, Steven Strasburg, is doing very well and will be in the majors next month. But, the number 2 pick in the draft, Dustin Ackley is struggling. What's going on?

Ackley had an amazing college career. His freshman season in '07, he hit .402 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 74 RBI, 11 SB (3 CS), 70 runs, and a .448 OBP in 73 games. Ackley primarily played first base. He was voted national freshman of the year. His sophomore season in '08, he hit .417 with 21 doubles, 7 homers, 51 RBI, 19 SB (6 CS), 82 runs, and a .503 OBP in 68 games. He played mostly first base again. In his junior season, '09, Ackley hit .417 with 18 doubles, 23 homers, 73 RBI, 13 SB (5 CS), 75 runs, and a .517 OBP in 66 games. He once again played first base.

After being drafted by the Mariners with the 2nd overall pick in the 2009 MLB draft, Ackley signed a 5-year, 7.5 million contract. He played in the 2009 Arizona Fall League, and played well, hitting .315, with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 12 RBI, 1 SB (2 CS), 20 runs and a .414 OBP in 20 games. It seemed like everything was great. The Mariners started Ackley in Double-A. He has played 40 games so far and the results have been disastrous. Entering 5/27, he has been hitting just .203 with 8 doubles, 1 homer, 12 RBI, 5 SB (1 CS), 19 runs, and a .353 OBP in 40 games. The Mariners decided to put him at 2nd base, and he's posted a below-average .967 Fld%. So what's going on?

The reason that Ackley is not doing well is that he's learning a new position and he has to focus more on his fielding. He is not your typical 1st baseman (not that much power), but that's where he belongs. That's where he played in college. Or, he could play the outfield. Let's look at the current Mariners depth chart. At 1st base is Casey Kotchman, at 2nd base is Chone Figgins, and Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, and Milton Bradley are from right to left in the outfield. Figgins, Ichiro, Gutierrez, and Bradley all have multi-year contracts right now, while Kotchman has just a one-year deal. So, why don't the Mariners put Ackley at 1st base? Kotchman is hitting .190 right now!

That's what the Mariners have to do if Ackley is still hitting around .200 in 2 weeks or so. Ackley is a great athlete, and the Mariners probably think that it's a waste putting him at 1st base. But, what's the point of having a 2nd baseman if he only hits around .200! Ackley needs to be comfortable defensively to hit well. He has the potential to be the only consistant 20-20 first baseman in the majors- what's wrong with that?

Here's a possible problem: Johan Limonta. You haven't heard of him and neither have I until now. But, he's hitting .308 as the Mariners' Double-A first baseman. He doesn't play another position. So, what should the Mariners do? Let's look at the Mariner's other minor league affiliates. At High-A, Rich Poythress is playing first base and doing very well, hitting .289 with 11 homers and 44 RBI, so Ackley can't go there. At Low-A, 2 players have split the first base position: Dennis Raben and Vincent Catricala. Raben is hitting .221 and Catricala is hitting .276. Ackley should go there. You might think that he's such a top prospect and he can't be sent down to Low-A, but that's ridiculous. He's hitting just over .200 at Double-A- he deserves to go down a level or two. Hopefully, if the Mariners do what I say, Ackley would go down to Low-A, hit .300 or better, then come back to Double-A next year as the first baseman.

Maybe by going down to Low-A, Ackley won't be in the majors until 2012 or 2013, but again, why would you want a .200 hitter in the majors anyway? Unless Ackley immediately goes into a hot streak, the Mariners really should do what I say.

Why was Braden perfect?

How did A's pitcher Dallas Braden throw a perfect game against the Rays yesterday? Well, he gave up no runs, no hits, no walks, no errors, and he didn't hit any batters. But, why did was he perfect? Let's look at the stats.

Besides all those zeroes, Braden had some other key stats. He threw 109 pitches, 77 of them for strikes and 32 of them for balls. If you divide the strikes by the balls, it equals about 2.41. Let's put that into prespective. He had thrown 368 strikes in the starts before the perfect game and 163 balls in those starts. Divide the strikes by the balls in those starts, and it equals 2.26. So, his strikes/balls ratio was .15 better in the perfect game than in his other starts. That's a big difference.

Braden had 6 strikeouts. It doesn't look like anything special until you realize that he only had 6 strikeouts combined his last 3 starts. Braden had 21 strikeouts combined his previous 6 starts before the perfect game in 37 IP. Braden had a 5.1 K/9 going into his perfect game and then posted a 6.0 K/9 in his perfect game. That's a full strikeout more.

Braden gave up 7 ground ball outs and 14 fly ball outs during the perfect game. The 7 ground ball outs are his third-lowest of the year. His lowest were only 6 ground ball outs on April 6th against Seattle and April 22nd against the Yankees. He gave up only 1 run on April 6th and only 2 runs on April 22nd. Add in the perfect game, and Braden has been very successful when he hasn't give up many ground ball outs. In all his starts where he gave up 8 or more ground ball outs, Braden only has 1 start where he gave up 2 or less runs, April 16th against the Orioles. He has posted a 1.23 ERA in the 3 starts during which he got 7 or less groundouts, and a 5.04 ERA when he got 8 or more groundouts. In those 3 starts where Braden had 7 or less ground ball outs, of course he had quite a few flyouts, with 13 flyouts on April 6th, 14 on April 22nd, and 13 during the perfect game. But, he had 15 flyouts on May 3rd and gave up 3 runs, so whenever Braden gets a ton of flyouts, it isn't necessarily that great for him.

Dallas Braden obviously had everything working for him during the perfect game. As a pitcher, you have to be pretty lucky for opposing batters to have a .000 BA on balls in play, even in one game, but Braden was that lucky.

Screw 209, this is how we post in the 201!