One of the biggest things coming in the 2011 offseason is the impending free agency of Albert Pujols. He looks to command the biggest contract in MLB history, even corralling 30 million dollars a year. But who will pay him that kind of money? Let's go through the teams and see what the odds are for each team signing Pujols.
No chance
30. Rays
The Rays need help at first base, but considering they couldn't re-sign Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena, how in the world would they sign Pujols? Even if they have a small payroll and there's no chance they'll commit over half their 2012 salary to one player. There's a zero chance Pujols goes to the Rays.
Odds: 1 in 4,000,000,000
29. Royals
The Royals have a tiny payroll and Eric Hosmer as their first baseman of the future. The Royals don't need to make a big splash in free agency with the top prospects coming, and even if they did, they don't have anywhere near the money to sign Pujols. Pujols will not be going across the state of Missouri to Kansas City in 2012.
Odds: 1 in 1,000,000,000
28. Pirates
When was the last time the Pirates signed a big free agent? They just don't have the payroll. Lyle Overbay (arguably their biggest free agent signing of the 2010 offseason) isn't the long-term answer at first base, but the Pirates will have to look to the farm system or lower-tier free agents because Pujols will not be a Pirate (although I could see the headline now: "Pujols a Pirate").
Odds: 1 in 90,000,000
27. Blue Jays
The Jays couldn't even sign their own big impending free agent, Roy Halladay. How in the world would they sign Pujols?
Odds: 1 in 75,000,000
26. Diamondbacks
They haven't had a big signing in quite a while. Prospect Brandon Allen is the first baseman is the future, and he's certainly not a sure thing, and also the D-backs made a run at Paul Konerko, but they just don't have anywhere near enough money to make a run at Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 60,000,000
25. Brewers
If the Brewers had the money to sign Pujols, they would have extended Prince Fielder. Also, they just signed Ryan Braun to a huge deal.
Odds: 1 in 50,000,000
24. Padres
Ditto Brewers, but for Adrian Gonzalez. They haven't signed anybody to a big extension, but they have never had a lot of money to begin with.
Odds: 1 in 45,000,000
23. Reds
The Reds have a player they can build around in Joey Votto at first base, and they're a small-market team anyway.
Odds: 1 in 35,000,000
22. Indians
The Indians are playing out of their mind right now and you would think that they just need to continue adding fuel to the fire to keep contending. But, they have a good combination of veterans and young players right now, and they would certainly extend Grady Sizemore before signing Pujols. Not to mention that they don't have the money to sign Pujols anyway.
Odds: 1 in 20,000,000
21. Twins
The Twins have Justin Morneau at first base, and it's unlikely that they'll be able to afford another high-priced player.
Odds: 1 in 10,000,000
20. Giants
The Giants have Aubrey Huff and Brandon Belt, and we know they don't have 30 million dollars lying around.
Odds: 1 in 8,000,000
19. White Sox
The White Sox have some money, but they have both Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn. They're not signing Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 7,500,000
18. Mets
The Mets have had cash in the past, but we know that the Wilpons are cash-stricken and looking to add a minority owner. Even if they did somehow get the money, they'll be much more worried about signing Jose Reyes anyway. And of course, they have a promising player in Ike Davis at first base.
Odds: 1 in 5,000,000
17. Astros
They're getting a new owner, so you never no what their payroll would be, but they have Brett Wallace at first base, and the new owner wouldn't want to commit most of his payroll to Pujols.
Odds: 1 in 3,000,000
16. Athletics
The A's don't have the money, but I feel like Billy Beane could pull off a crazy sign-and-trade or something.
Odds: 1 in 2,500,000
15. Mariners
The Mariners have signed a couple of big free agents in recent years, but they don't appear to be contending anytime soon, and they have Justin Smoak, who should be manning first base for years to come.
Odds: 1 in 2,000,000
14. Marlins
The Marlins want to make a splash as they're moving into their new stadium, and they did spend a bit more money in the 2010 offseason, but 30 million dollars is a ton of money, and unless Pujols gives the Fish a "hometown discount" because they're the closest MLB team to the Dominican public, the Marlins won't be able to sign him.
Odds: 1 in 1,000,000
Probably not
13. Phillies
The entire baseball world is hoping that the Phillies don't scrape together enough pennies to sign Albert Pujols. I'm sure Ryan Howard is hoping too.
Odds: 1 in 10,000
12. Braves
The Braves have Freddie Freeman at first, and they don't have limitless funds, but they've made runs at big players in recent years.
Odds: 1 in 7,500
11. Tigers
Maybe the Tigers have money, but they have Miguel Cabrera, and they would have to catch Victor Martinez more often to fit in Pujols at DH. They'd also have to convince Pujols to play left field on an irregular basis (he did play most of 2003 in left field, but he hasn't played there since).
Odds: 1 in 5,000
10. Rockies
The Rockies have extended Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Is there any money left?
Odds: 1 in 3,500
9. Angels
The Angels made runs at Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford this past offseason, but failed to sign either of them, and they traded for the pricey Vernon Wells. The Angels don't have quite enough money to sign Pujols, and they also have two promising first baseman in Kendrys Morales and Mark Trumbo.
Odds: 1 in 2000
9. Red Sox
The Red Sox might have the money, but with Adrian Gonzalez at third, David Ortiz at DH, and even Carl Crawford in left field, the Red Sox would have to convince Pujols to play right field. Pujols did play 39 games there in 2001, but he has had some elbow problems since, and playing right field could kill his elbow and endanger his career. It's not impossible, but it's certainly a long-shot.
Odds: 1 in 1000
Don't completely count them out
7. Dodgers
They've spent quite a bit of money in the past. If they ever get that FOX TV deal signed, and their ownership situation resolved you never know what will happen, but the chances are certainly against Pujols being a Dodger.
Odds: 1 in 100
6. Orioles
The Orioles are starting to spend some money, and Derrek Lee was signed to just a one-year contract, but 30 million dollars is seemingly too much.
Odds: 1 in 75
5. Rangers
The Rangers have been spending money lately, but they already have a ton of money on the books and a logjam of players playing first base/DH including Mike Napoli and Michael Young. They theoretically could sign Pujols, but they probably will decide not to.
Odds: 1 in 60
4. Nationals
The Nats signed Jason Werth this past offseason and Adam LaRoche is coming off the books after the season, so you never know for sure.
Odds: 1 in 40
3. Yankees
You may think I'm crazy, but Pujols going to the Yankees is a semi-realistic possibility. It would be the same of situation as the Red Sox above with Mark Teixeira at first base, but the Yankees would certainly move Brett Gardner to give Pujols time in left field, and if they could sign Pujols, they would certainly be willing to trade Jesus Montero to give him time at DH as well.
Odds: 1 in 20
Contenders
2. Cubs
The Cubs have new owners, the Ricketts, and are dying to make Pujols a part of their team. They might actually be able to offer Pujols a 10 year, 300 million dollar contract. But would Pujols leave St. Louis?
Odds: 2 in 5
1. Cardinals
The Cardinals have been Pujols' team the past 11 years. They won a championship with him and have built a solid team around him. Why should he leave? But will the Cardinals offer him the 30 million a year?
Odds: 12 in 25
Results
Cardinals- 48% chance of re-signing Pujols
Cubs- 40% chance of signing Pujols
Yankees- 5% chance of signing Pujols
Nationals- 2.5% chance of signing Pujols
Rangers- 1.7% chance of signing Pujols
The field- 2.7% chance of signing Pujols
It's Cubs-Cardinals for the rights to have Pujols with the Yankees, Nationals, and Rangers having outside chances and every other team barely being involved if part of the picture at all. This should be interesting.
Showing posts with label Rays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rays. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
2011 MLB Preview: Tampa Bay Rays
After winning the AL East in 2010 and 2008, the Rays' run atop the AL East appears to be coming to a close after losing Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Rafael Soriano among others, to free agency. Will this new group of Rays be able to shock the world and bring down the Yankees and Red Sox to win the AL East crown?
Catcher:
John Jaso is not your average big league catcher. Although the Rays don't run a Moneyball scheme, Jaso is the perfect Moneyball catcher. The 27 year old hit .263 in '10 with 18 doubles, 5 homers, and 44 RBI in 109 games. Defensively, Jaso was league-average at best, posting a .992 Fld%, just a 23% CS%, and 7 passed balls, the third most in the AL. (He did have an 8.02 RF/9 [range factor per 9 innings], second in the AL.) So what made Jaso a good player for the Rays? His .372 OBP. Even at Triple-A, Jaso hit .271 with 10 homers in 138 games, but he had a .356 OBP. Will we see any signs of improvement from Jaso in 2011? If so, only subtle signs. Jaso had a .282 BAbip (batting average on balls in play) in '10 compared to the league average of .297. He had a 19% LD% (line drive percentage among balls in play), which was exactly the league average, so you could think that maybe if that causes his BAbip to even out, he could hit .275. But, while his LD% was average, his hit way too many ground balls, posting a 46 GB% (ground ball percentage among balls in play). He also posted a 15% IF/FB (percentage of fly balls on the infield [i.e. popups] among balls in play) compared to the league average of 13%. His .282 BAbip was right around where it should have been. In terms of hitting homers, Jason had just a 3.5% HR/FB (percentage of balls hit to the outfield that go for homers) compared to the league average of 7.8%, so you would think that he could hit as many as 15 homers in 2011 if he gets sufficient at-bats. But, that's simply not the case. Jaso just isn't a power hitter. He sacrifices power for contact. Jaso's 74% IP% (percentage of plate appearances that end with a ball in play) compared well to the league average of 69%, but he sacrificed power for contact. Not only did he have just a 3.5% HR/FB, but also he had just a 6.4% XBH% (percentage of plate appearances ending in an extra-base hit), and a 29% X/H% (percentage of extra base hits among the total amount of hits) compared to the league averages of 7.8% and 33% respectively. He's just a contact hitter with no power. Jaso would be lucky to hit 10 homers in 2011. Jaso doesn't strike out at all (9.7% of his plate appearances compared to the league average of 18.0%), and he walks a ton (14.6% of his plate appearances compared to the league average of 8.7%), but that's all he'll ever be. He's an on-base guy. It's nice to have a player like Jaso, but he's the kind of player that will probably never be an All-Star. Purely because of his OBP, John Jaso is a pretty good player for the Rays.
Jaso will be backed up by Kelly Shoppach. At his best, you could argue that Shoppach is better than Jaso. In 2008, Shoppach hit .261 with 27 doubles, 21 homers, 55 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 112 games for the Cleveland Indians. But, that was not the case in 2011. Shoppach, who will turn 31 on April 29th, hit just .196 in '10 with 8 doubles, 5 homers (as many as Jaso!), 17 RBI, and a .308 OBP in 63 games. He missed from mid-April to early June because of a knee surgery that really derailed his season. Shoppach had a career low 12% LD% (somehow he had a .313 BAbip) along with just a 44% IP%, but I'm hoping we can blame those problems on the knee injury. Defensively, Shoppach actually posted a .994 Fld% (7.63 RF/9) and allowed just 2 passed balls, but he posted just a 17% CS%. Shoppach's upside at this point in his career is somewhere close to his spring training numbers. He hit just .238, but he hit 7 homers and drove in 22 RBI in 17 games. He could provide great power as a backup catcher whenever he has an opportunity to make a start, and he could be a pinch-hitter late in games. At worst, he's an awful backup catcher who's a bad hitter and a worse fielder who would be immediately be cut and replaced by a younger backup. The most likely scenario lies somewhere in the middle. Kelly Shoppach should provide good depth behind John Jaso in 2011.
First base:
It's finally Dan Johnson's time to shine. Johnson, who turned 31 this past August, came up with the Oakland A's and had a good rookie season in 2005, hitting .275 with 21 doubles, 15 homers, 58 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 109 games. But after hitting .234 in '06 and .236 in '07, Johnson was supplanted at first base by Daric Barton, and he ended up being put on waivers and being claimed by the Rays. After spending nearly all of 2008 at Tampa's Triple-A Durham and spending '09 in Japan, Johnson returned to America in 2010, and after hitting .303 with 30 homers and 95 RBI at Durham, he was given another chance in the big leagues. Johnson hit just .198 in 40 games, but he hit 7 homers, including 5 against the Yankees and Red Sox, drove in 23 RBI, and posted a .343 OBP. How will Johnson do with an opportunity for a starting job in 2011? Throughout his career, Johnson has been very unlucky. Johnson has just a .243 career BA, but that's because of just a .250 career BAbip despite a 19% career LD%. When that evens out, Johnson should certainly hit .275 again. In terms of hitting homers, you know that Johnson is a power hitter, and accordingly he owns an above-average 9.9% career HR/FB. He should certainly hit 20 homers in 2011. Johnson probably won't be a great player for the Rays in 2011, but he should be solid. Defensively, Johnson is an average first baseman, owning a .995 Fld% with average range (9.53 RF/9 compared to the league average of 9.49). Johnson will be backed up by starting right fielder Ben Zobrist and starting second baseman Sean Rodriguez. Finally given a second chance, Dan Johnson should be a good player for the Rays in 2011.
Second base:
Sean Rodriguez, who will turn 26 on April 26th, had a nice first full season in the majors in 2010 (it was not his rookie season), hitting .251 with 19 doubles, 9 homers, 40 RBI, 13 stolen bases (3 CS), and a .308 OBP in 118 games. Like Zobrist and Elliot Johnson, Rodriguez plays everywhere, but at his primary position, second base, Rodriguez posted a league average .984 Fld% with average range (4.78 RF/9 compared to the league average of 4.80). Rodriguez posted an 1.000 Fld% at first base, shortstop, third base, left field, centerfield, and right field, including above-average range at the corner positions. We know what Rodriguez is defensively, but can he improve offensively in 2011? At first glance, you might have to be fearful of a worse year for Rodriguez in 2011. He managed a .324 BAbip despite just a 17% LD%. But, you have to realize how big a factor speed is in BAbip. A faster runner who consistently makes contact can reach base more than the average player because of infield hits and bunt hits. Rodriguez had 14 infield hits and 7 bunt hits. Removing his infield hits and bunt hits from the BAbip equation, Rodriguez had a .300 BAbip. Rodriguez should not be in danger to hit below .250 in 2011. In terms of Rodriguez's 9 homers, he had a 7.6% HR/FB that was right around the league average. But, Rodriguez hit 29 or more homers twice in the minors, so he certainly has above-average pop. While Tropicana Field might negate a bit of Rodriguez's power, expect his HR/FB to go up in 2011 and for him to hit a few more homers. Also, keep in mind that Rodriguez received just 378 plate appearances in 2011. I would not be surprised if Rodriguez hits .265 in '11 with 15 homers, 75 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .320 OBP if he receives regular playing time. Sean Rodriguez might not be a great player, but he's certainly a very productive player for the Rays, and he'll be even better in 2011.
Rodriguez will be backed up by Zobrist and Elliot Johnson. Johnson, a 27 year old utility player, had his best overall season in the minors in 2011, hitting .319 with 24 doubles, 11 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 72 runs, 30 stolen bases (6 CS), and a .375 OBP in 109 games. He played second base, shortstop, right field, and left field. He played a very good second base, posting a .987 Fld% with a 4.81 RF/G. (There are no minor league records for innings played by a fielder, so there's no RF/9 I can state. The AL average for RF/G was 4.75 in '10.) Johnson had an unbelievable spring, hitting .341 with 1 homer, 5 RBI, and a .449 OBP. Oh yeah, and 12 stolen bases, easily the most on the team, without being caught a single time. Johnson seems like he can be a decent hitting and fielding backup that could certainly steal some bases when he gets on. He'll also be used as a pinch-runner. Johnson could be the next good utility player the Rays have in the mold of Ben Zobrist. He'll be a good backup. The Rays have good depth at second base.
Third base:
It's always nice to have one of the best players in the majors on both sides of the ball on your team. The Rays look like complete geniuses for signing Evan Longoria to a contract extension even before he made it to the big leagues (it was announced after he came up). Longoria, now 25, had another great season in 2011, hitting .294 with 46 doubles, 22 homers, 104 RBI, 5 triples, 96 runs, 15 stolen bases (5 CS), and a .372 OBP in 151 games. The .294 BA, 46 doubles, 5 triples, 15 stolen bases, and .372 OBP were all career-highs. However, the 22 homers was a career-low. What happened? Well, in order to understand that, let's start with his BAbip. Longoria had a career-high .336 BAbip despite a career-low 20% LD% Why was that? Longoria set a career-high with 16 infield hits. It's not like Longoria became faster, so it must have been that Longoria had more opportunities to beat out grounders. Why was that? Well, everyone first guess must be that he hit more ground balls than ever before. Yet according to Fangraphs, Longoria hit more ground balls in 2009 than in 2010. His 37% GB% in 2010 was actually the lowest of his career. Since that first guess was wrong, I would like to propose a different solution: .that Longoria was more ready to beat out ground balls than before. What I mean is that with 2 strikes, Longoria started looking more for contact rather than trying for contact, but still waiting for a pitch he could drive. Longoria hit a career-low .186 with 2 strikes in '10 with 8 homers. In 2009, Longoria hit .214 with 14 homers in two strikes. He also had just a .289 BAbip with 2 strikes in '10 compared to .333 in '09. Longoria actually had the lowest IFH% (infield hit percentage among ground balls) of his career, according to Fangraphs. So what happened? Well, according to Fangraphs, Longoria only had 12 infield hits in '10. But I told you above that he had 16! Well, that was according to Baseball-Reference. Why is there the discrepancy? Well, line drives can also remain on the infield. Maybe Longoria wasn't quite ready for a few pitches he should have slammed, and rather than hitting those pitches to the outfield as line drives, he hit soft liners to the infield. Four of them had to end up as singles. Longoria sacrificed some power for some additional contact. He had a career-high 66% IP% in '10 compared to 62% in '09 (it was only a 4% increase because the trends that I'm talking about were with two strikes), and a 78% contact percentage (percentage of swings in which he made contact) in '10 compared to 75% in '09. This increase in contact came along with a decrease in power. Longoria's 8.5% HR/FB was easily the lowest of his career, compared to 15.2% in '08 and 12.8% in '09. Longoria's HR/FB is somewhat diluted by some of the weak fly balls he hit because he was just trying to make contact with two strikes. So what can we expect from Longoria is 2011? I would expect an adjustment from Longoria with two strikes in '10 and while his BA might go down a few points, he'll certainly hit 30 home runs. Defensively, Longoria won his second straight Gold Glove, posting a .966 Fld% compared to the league average of .956 and a 2.74 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.67. Longoria will be backed up by Ben Zobrist, Dan Johnson, Elliot Johnson, and Sean Rodriguez. Evan Longoria had a great season for the Rays in 2010, but expect him to be even better in 2011 as he makes an adjustment to his two-strike approach.
However, Longoria will miss at least the first couple weeks of the season with an oblique injury. That could certainly limit his stats and possibly his production when he returns. You have to hope that Longoria will be OK when he comes off the DL, but we can't know for sure.
While Longoria is hurt, Felipe Lopez will have a big league job. Lopez hit just .233 between the Cardinals and Red Sox in '10, one year after hitting .310, with 18 doubles, 8 homers, 37 RBI, 8 stolen bases, and a .311 OBP in 113 games. Lopez's BAbip fell from .358 to .273 from '09 to '10 due to a decrease in LD% from 22% to 19%. Also, his FB% shot up from 26% and 34%, and since Lopez isn't a power hitter (5.8% career HR/FB, 5.6% in '10), that was a huge problem for him. In addition, Lopez struck out in 18.4% of his plate appearances in 2010 compared to just 14.7% in '09. Lopez had an awful season in 2011 without being lucky, and at age 31 there was no guarantee that he was going to rebound, so he only received a minor league deal from the Rays. (Elliot Johnson beat him out for a roster spot before the Longoria injury). Defensively at third base, Lopez posted just a .920 Fld% with a 2.37 RF/9 in 60 games, and just a .970 Fld% at shortstop with a 3.59 RF/9 compared to the league average of 4.31 in 25 games. But, he did post a perfect 1.000 Fld% at second base with a 5.16 RF/9 in 25 games, and he was also perfect in 2 games at first base. In 1 game each in right field and at pitcher, he received no fielding chances. Speaking of the pitching performance, he actually pitched a scoreless inning against the Mets in a 20 game on 4/17/10, but unfortunately for Lopez, the lineups in the American League are a lot harder. Lopez should be a decent backup as long as he's on the big league roster.
Shortstop:
Reid Brignac had an opportunity in 2010, and he took advantage. The 25 year old middle infielder received playing time with Jason Bartlett struggling, and he certainly played just as well as Bartlett if not better, hitting .256 with 13 doubles, 8 homers, 45 RBI, and a .307 OBP in 113 games. Brignac actually had a .317 BAbip, primarily because of a 23% LD%, but his BA was still around .250 because he strikes out a lot for a hitter with average power (23.6% of his plate appearances). Speaking of his power, he had a below-average 6.7% HR/FB, but there was a clear reason for that. He hit 8 homers against righties compared to none against lefties. Brignac, a lefty batter, hit just .227 against lefties in '10. He could lose some starts against lefties. Defensively, Brignac was pretty significantly below-average defensively at second base, posting a .976 Fld% and a 4.76 RF/9, but he while his .976 Fld% was above-average, although his 4.33 RF/9 was a bit below the league average of 4.40. But, it was a small sample size as he played in just 50 games at the position, so maybe he'll be better in 2011. Still, Brignac is a decent player overall for the Rays. He'll be backed up by Zobrist, Elliot Johnson, and Sean Rodriguez. Reid Brignac might be as good of a player as Jason Bartlett, but apparently that isn't saying very much.
Left field:
Johnny Damon is still around even at age 37, but coming off his worst season in the big leagues, the Rays were able to sign him for a bit of a reduced price, 5.25 million dollars on a 1-year contract. Damon hit .271 with the Tigers in '10, with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 51 RBI, 5 triples, 81 runs, 11 stolen bases, and a .355 OBP in 145 games. Damon had a .312 BAbip in '10 thanks to a 21% LD%, and he took full advantage with a 72% IP%. So how did he hit just .271? In 2009, he hit .282 with a .305 BAbip! The difference was home runs. Damon's BA was higher in 2010 because he hit 24 home runs. In 2010, he hit just 8, and although he had a lower strikeout rate, it counted more because he had less at-bats (11 less to be exact). How will Damon do offensively in 2011? Well, he's bound to hit a few more homers moving from Comerica to Tropicana, and maybe he could hit .280. He certainly won't be the great player he used to be, but he'll still be a pretty good player. Defensively, Damon DH'd 98 times, and rightfully so because he was awful defensively, posting just a .964 Fld% compared to the league average of .984, and a 1.99 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.07. At this point of his career, Damon is just a pretty good player for the Rays.
Damon will be backed up by Sam Fuld in addition to all the utility players. Fuld, acquired in the Matt Garza trade, hit .299 in 63 games as a backup for the Cubs in 2009, but spent almost all of 2010 at Triple-A Iowa, hitting .272 with 15 doubles, 4 homers, 27 RBI, 9 triples, 21 stolen bases, and a .383 OBP in 112 games. Defensively, Fuld was outstanding posting a .996 Fld% with a 2.58 RF/G that was just above the NL average of 2.58 for centerfielders. At age 29, Fuld isn't really a prospect anymore, but he profiles well as a backup outfielder. He should be fine in his first full season as a backup.
Centerfield:
B.J. Upton never became THAT player. Upton had the potential to be a great 5-tool player, but that just didn't happen. In 2010, Upton, now 27, hit .237 (no average tool), 38 doubles, 18 homers, 62 RBI (just decent power), 89 runs, 42 stolen bases (fine, he's fast), but 9 CS, and just a .322 OBP in 154 games. Defensively, Upton posted a .988 Fld% compared to the AL average of .990, although he did post a 2.77 RF/9 compared to the 2.73 average. He posted just 3 outfield assists. Will Upton ever show signs of being more than a base stealer with a little pop? Well, Upton had a .304 BAbip, but he owns a .334 career BAbip, so that's pretty low for him. He had a 19% LD% that was just below his career average of 20%, but he posted a 59% IP% that was his lowest since 2007. In terms of his 18 homers, Upton was actually lucky to hit that many, posting a 9.2% HR/FB compared to his career average of 7.9%. Upton is a pretty good player, but he'll never be more than a speedster. Upton will be backed up by Fuld and the utility players. B.J. Upton is a pretty good player at best for the Rays.
Right field:
As you've seen throughout this post, Ben Zobrist plays everywhere, but his native position in 2011 will be right field. Zobrist, who will turn 30 on May 26th, certainly had a down year in '10 in comparison to his outstanding 2009 season, hitting just .238 with 28 doubles, 10 homers, 75 RBI, 77 runs, 24 stolen bases (3 CS), and .346 OBP in 151 games. In 2009, he hit .297 with 28 doubles, 27 homers, 91 RBI, 91 runs, 17 stolen bases (6 CS), and a .405 OBP in 152 games. If there was one stat to contrast the two seasons, it's slugging percentage. Zobrist's slugging percentage went into a free-fall from .543 to just .353. What the heck happened? Simply, his homers stopped coming. His HR/FB fell from 12.7% all the way down to 4.7%. To figure out why, we're going to have to look at everything. Zobrist had a .326 BAbip in 2009 compared to .273 in '10, causing the significant drop in BA along with the decrease in homers. The cause for the drop in BAbip was obviously his LD%. Zobrist managed an incredible 24% LD% in 2009, but that fell to just 18% in 2010, while his IF/FB went up from 9% to 13% and his GB% went up from 41.5% to 44.1%. Zobrist's IP% did go up from 62% to 67% and of course his stolen bases went up from 17 to 24, but obviously the decrease in homers and line drives ruined his season. Zobrist may not be a power hitter, but he has to make solid contact rather than just any contact. Zobrist is going to be the leadoff hitter for the Rays in '10. While a leadoff single to start off an inning is nice, an extra-base hit is even better. Zobrist needs to get back to that in 2011. Zobrist hit 4 homers in spring training and hit a homer off of Jim Johnson on Opening Day. He doesn't need to hit 30 homers, but he has to get back on track in terms of hitting the ball better. You have to think that with Crawford and Pena gone, Zobrist is going to step up and maybe not post his 2009 numbers, but certainly have a much better season that 2010. Defensively, Zobrist was perfect in 103 games in right field, posting a 2.26 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.10, and he was also perfect at first base and in centerfield (with below average range). However, he was decent at best at second base, posting a .984 Fld% that was exactly the league average and a 4.61 RF/9 compared to the league average of 4.80. But, he did post an 11.5 UZR (ultimate zone rating), so he was certainly doing something right. Zobrist also played limited time at third best and left field, posting a .500 Fld% at third (1 error in 2 chances), and not even having a chance in left. He's not only a versatile fielder, but a good one as well. Ben Zobrist had an off-year in 2010, but expect him to come back strong in 2011 and be one of the Rays' offensive leaders.
Zobrist will be backed up by Matt Joyce, Sam Fuld, Elliot Johnson, and Sean Rodriguez. Joyce, 26, had a pretty good season as a backup for the Rays in 2010, hitting .241 with 15 doubles, 10 homers, 40 RBI, and a .360 OBP in 77 games. Joyce actually had a .273 BAbip despite a 19% LD%, but whatever evening out his BAbip will do will be canceled out by his strikeout rate (21.1% in '10), and that he doesn't put many balls in play anyway (59% IP% in '10). He did have a 10.8% HR/FB in '10, but that's expected from a hitter with his pop. Joyce posted a great 2.34 RF/9 in right field with 4 outfield assists, but he posted just a .972 Fld%. Maybe he could take advantage of his range more in 2011. If Joyce plays well, he'll take away some starts from Sean Rodriguez as Zobrist moves to second base. He'll also get some at-bats at DH. The Rays have some nice depth in right field for whenever Zobrist needs a day off or moves to another position.
Designated Hitter:
Manny Ramirez will turn 39 on May 30th, but his 1 year, 2 million dollar contract with the Rays will be a steal if he remains motivated. Not only was Manny unmotivated in 2010, but he also could not stay healthy, missing time with a nagging calf injury and a hamstring stain. When he did play, Manny did OK, hitting .298 with 16 doubles, 9 homers, 42 RBI, and a .409 OBP in 90 games between the Dodgers and White Sox. Manny did that in 320 plate appearances. Let's say Manny stays motivated and relatively healthy and makes 500 similar plate appearances. Projecting his 2010 stats over 500 plate appearances, Manny would hit 25 doubles and 14 homers while driving in 66 runs. That would be just decent production. But in '10, although Manny had a 23% LD% that was right around his career norms, he had just an 8.3% HR/FB, his lowest since 1993. He career HR/FB is 15.7%. Maybe Manny wasn't 'motivated' enough to hit home runs. Let's say his HR/FB returns to the 11.9% that it was in 2009. And of course, Manny also had a low XBH% by his standards (7.8%) and a low X/H% (32%) so let's say those go back up to Manny's 10.4% XBH% and 44% X/H% from 2010. And, let's assume that these additional extra base hits cause Manny to drive in more runs, and his AB per RBI ratio goes from the 6.3 it was in '10 to the 5.6 it was in '09. Now Manny hits 19 doubles, 20 homers, and assuming he walks in 18.5% of his plate appearances as he has so far in his career, 72 RBI. The Rays would certainly take that. The expectations can't be for Manny to have a ridiculous season, but if he's motivated Manny could certainly hit 20 homers and drive in 70 runs. Will Manny do that? I would doubt it, but Manny he could hit 17 homers and drive in 65 or something along those lines. As long as the Rays keep Manny motivated, he should be fine. In case you were wondering (which you shouldn't be), the reason Manny will be playing almost exclusively DH is because he's a completely liability defensively, considering he posted just a .959 Fld% in left field in '10 with a 1.75 RF/9. Manny will have some of his DH at-bats taken away by Johnny Damon and Matt Joyce. If the Rays can keep Manny Ramirez motivated, he should be a pretty good DH for them.
Starting rotation:
In 2010, Price finally became that dependable ace that he was supposed to be ever since he was the number 1 overall pick in the 2007 MLB draft. The 25 year old lefty went 19-6 in '10 with a 2.72 ERA, 188 K's, and just 79 walks in 31 starts, a relief appearance, and 208.2 IP. He allowed just 170 hits, a great 7.3 H/9 (hits per 9 innings ratio), and 15 homers, a 0.6 HR/9 (home runs per 9 innings ratio). Was 2010 just the beginning for Price, or should we expect a regression? Well seeing that Price allowed a .272 BAbip in '10, your first thought would be to have some amount of trepidation. But, Price should be fine in terms of hits allowed. In 2010, Price allowed an 18% LD, a 14% IF/FB and a 44% GB%. Maybe his BAbip will go up to around .280 in 2011, but that shouldn't be too much of a problem for Price. He also allowed a 66% IP%, so not that many balls were put in play against him anyway. But, Price did have a 79% LOB% (left on-base percentage- percentage of baserunners allowed that did not score; also known as strand rate) compared to the league average of 72%. LOB% is a lot of luck especially relating to homers. If you allow a walk than a homer, then you allow 2 runs, but if you allow a homer than a walk and than get out of the inning, you only allow 1. Price might also regress in terms of homers allowed in 2011. Price allowed a 1.2 HR/9 in 2009, but that was cut in half to 0.6 in 2010. But, the cause for that drop was a significant drop in HR/FB from 8.4% to 5.4%. Price will take a bit of a step back in 2011. As his H/9 goes up to say 7.7, his LOB% approaches 72%, and his HR/9 goes up to 0.9, his ERA should sneak to right around 3.00. That would still be a great year, but he won't finish second in the Cy Young award voting again in 2011. David Price is a great pitcher for the Rays, but his outstanding 2010 may have set expectations just a bit too high.
James Shields is coming off his worst season in the big leagues, yet he's still slotted as the Rays' number two starter. He better make the Rays confidence in him pay off. Shields, who turned 29 on December 20th, went just 13-15 in '10 with a 5.18 ERA, but 187 K's compared to just 51 walks in 33 starts, 1 relief appearance, a 203.1 IP. He had an outstanding 3.67 strikeout to walk ratio, but his problems were that he allowed 246 hits, a 10.9 H/9, and 34 homers, a 1.5 HR/9. The 246 hits and 34 homers allowed were the most in the AL, and he also led the AL in earned runs allowed with 117. Will Shields rebound in 2011? Well, Shields certainly didn't have an awful season with average luck. That theory seems easily supported because Shields allowed a .344 BAbip in '10. But, he did that while allowing a 22% LD% that was significantly above the league average, a below-average 10% IF/FB, and a 41% GB% that was right around the league average. His BAbip also hurt him more because he allowed a league-average 69% IP%. Shields' BAbip certainly wasn't that far off from what it should have been. Shields had an off-year from his .310 career BAbip, rather than .297 or less. Considering he set a career-high for LD% against him and a career-low for GB% against him and his IF/FB was his lowest since 2010, maybe it does make some amount of sense that he allowed a .344 BAbip. So did he have an awful season or is he just a bad pitcher? Shields is not a bad pitcher. He allowed a 10.0% HR/FB in '10 compared to his career average of 8.8% and a 68.4% LOB% compared to his career average of 71.3%. When everything evens out, Shields should allow less homers and strand more runners. But how will those stats even out? How do these ratios magically return to neutral? While there is some amount of luck in baseball, nearly all improvements are made by adjustments. If Shields worked hard with pitching coach Jim Hickey, he'll have a better season, and if not, he won't. But, knowing Shields, we know that he put the work in, and pending injury, he'll have a much better season in 2011. Will he be able to post the 3.56 ERA he put up in '08? That's doubtful, but the 4.14 ERA he posted in '09 is certainly within reach. (ZiPs has Shields posting a 4.38 ERA, and that might be a bit more likely than Shields than a 4.14 ERA.) James Shields isn't a great pitcher, but he's a motivated one. Expect a rebound in 2011.
Wade Davis received a 4 year, 12.6 million dollar contract extension following his rookie season. Not too shabby. The 25 year old right-hander went 12-10 in '10 with a 4.07 ERA, 113 K's, and 62 walks (a bit off a 2.0 K/BB) in 29 starts and 168 IP. He allowed 165 hits, an 8.8 H/9, and 24 homers, a bad 1.3 HR/9. Davis led all AL rookies in wins, and finished second in strikeouts, and he also led all qualifying AL rookies (162 IP minimum) in ERA. It was a good rookie season, but he will be able to be a good major league pitcher over the next 4 years? Well, it has to worry you at least a little bit that Davis posted a .274 BAbip in 2010. And despite that BAbip, Davis still allowed an 8.8 H/9! Davis' BAbip might not be that far off what it should be, considering he allowed just a 17% LD% and a 15% IF/FB. However, he allowed just a 39% GB%. Davis is an extreme fly ball pitcher (allowing a 44% FB% [fly ball percentage]), and he just allows a lot of hits. Making matters worse, Davis actually had a 78% LOB%. He wasn't unlucky to allow an 8.8 H/9, but he was lucky to strand the amount of baserunners he did. But at least he was unlucky in terms of homers allowed. He allowed an 8.7% HR/FB. But even when that evens out, he'll still probably allow a 1.0 HR/9! Bill James and Marcel have Davis posting an ERA's of 4.09 and 4.01 respectively, but I'll have to agree with ZiPs, who has Davis posting a 4.52 ERA. Unless he has an uncanny ability to strand runners on base, Davis is not a good enough pitcher to post a low-4.00's ERA. He allows too many hits and too many homers. FIP (fielding-independent pitching equivalent of ERA) is a stat that is calculates an ERA for pitchers while only regarding the aspects of baseball that the pitcher can control- strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and homer allowed. The final result of the calculation looks like an ERA. Despite his 4.07 ERA in '10, Davis had a 4.79 ERA. His lack of a 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio along with the large amounts of homers he allowed still give him a bad FIP while disregarding his 8.8 H/9. The Rays better hope Davis makes an adjustment in 2011 or does have that uncanny ability to strand runners, or Davis could be a disappointment and even post an ERA around the 4.79 FIP that he posted in 2011. You have to assume that the Rays know something I don't in signing Davis to the 4-year extension, but it's certainly worth asking whether Davis can be a good major league pitcher. Based on the data available, it's hard not to think that Davis will suffer a bit of sophomore slump in 2011.
Maybe Davis' sophomore slump in 2011 will be similar to Jeff Niemann's sophomore slump that he went through in 2010. Niemann, who turned 28 on February 28th, finished 4th in the 2009 AL Rookie of the Voting after going 13-6 with a 3.94 ERA, but went 12-8 in '10 with a 4.39 ERA, 131 K's, and 61 walks in 29 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 174.1 IP. He allowed 159 hits, an 8.2 H/9, and 25 homers, the same bad 1.3 HR/9 that Davis posted. But something very strange happened to Niemann from '09 to '10- his BAbip actually went down from .302 to .266. He cut his 21% LD% to just 15%, and he increased his GB% from 41% to 44%. His LOB% even stayed about the same, going down slightly from 73.7% to 73.4%. So why did he do worse? Well first of all, he wasn't able to take advantage of the lower BAbip as much because he decreased his IP% from 72% to 69%. But that's not the real reason. Niemann's HR/9 jumped from 0.8 in '09 to 1.3 in '10 because his HR/FB shot up from 6.0% to 10.0%. So how will Niemann do in 2011? Well if he can allow a 15% LD% again, causing a BAbip around .270 again while his HR/FB evens out to around 8.0%, causing his HR/9 to go down to around 1.0, Niemann should be able to put up an ERA under 4.00 again. Jeff Niemann made a big adjustment in 2010, only to let unlucky in another regard. If everything evens out for Niemann in 2011, he'll certainly have the best season of his career.
Jeremy Hellickson excited the baseball world from the moment he came up, going 7 innings in his major league debut against the Twins on August 2nd, earning the win as he allowed just 2 runs on 3 hits, and struck out 6 while walking just 2. Hellickson, who will turn 24 on April 8th, made 4 major league starts for the Rays, and he was just as dominant if not more so, going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA, 25 K's, and just 4 walks in 26.1 IP. He did allow just a .209 BAbip, but he allowed just a 13% LD%. Hellickson did post a 7.20 ERA in 6 September relief appearances, but he was filling an unfamiliar role. Hellickson has the potential to be as good as he was in those four August starts. Maybe that won't be this year, but nevertheless, Hellickson is one of the front-runners for Rookie of the Year. Will he be good enough to win it? First, let's take a look at his gaudy minor league stats. Overall in the minors, Hellickson went 49-16 with a 2.71 ERA, a 9.8 K/9 (strikeouts per 9 innings ratio), and a 2.1 BB/9 (bases on balls [walks] per 9 innings ratio). He held batters to a 7.4 H/9 (.290 BAbip), and a 0.7 HR/9. Takings his outstanding 7.4 H/9 out of the picture, Hellickson still managed a 2.91 FIP. But, talking his whole minor league career obviously encompasses the lower levels in the minors, where an outstanding prospect in Hellickson dominating the competition. Hellickson actually owns his third-best ERA at any level in the minors at Triple-A (2.47), but he did post a 2.43 ERA at SS-A and a 2.67 ERA at Low-A. Let's look at Double-A, where Hellickson struggled the most (3.27 ERA) among all the levels in which he played 5 or more games (he had a 6.00 ERA in 4 games at Rookie ball in 2005), and then Triple-A. At Double-A, Hellickson made 24 starts over 2 seasons, which isn't that far off from how many games he'll start for the Rays in 2011. He went 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA, 141 K's (9.6 K/9), and 29 walks (2.0 BB/9) in 132 IP. He allowed 125 hits, an 8.5 H/9 (.313 BAbip), and 19 homers, a 1.3 HR/9. The 8.5 H/9 and 1.3 HR/9 were the second-worst of his career at any level, again trailing only Rookie ball. He posted a 3.71 FIP. That might be the worst case scenario for Hellickson, pending injury. He's that good. At Triple-A, Hellickson basically pitched as much as he will for the Rays in 2011, making 30 starts. He went 18-4 with a 2.47 ERA, 193 K's (9.9 K/9), and 50 walks (2.6 BB/9) in 175 IP. He allowed 134 hits, just a 6.9 H/9 (.231 BAbip), and just 9 homers, a 0.5 HR/9. He managed an outstanding 2.71 FIP. We probably won't see another FIP like that from Hellickson until if and when he wins the AL Cy Young. The most likely scenario for Hellickson's FIP in 2011 certainly isn't his 2.91 career FIP in the minors- it's much more similar to the 3.21 FIP that's the average between his 3.71 FIP at Double-A and his 2.71 FIP at Triple-A. How will that FIP translate into an ERA for Hellickson? Well, looking at the FIP's and ERA's of the Rays 5 starters in 2010 (the 4 pitchers listed above plus Matt Garza), they averaged a .24 decrease from FIP to ERA. But, taking out James Shields, who had a .94 increase from his FIP to his ERA, they averaged a decrease of .54. That would put Hellickson's projected ERA somewhere from 2.67 to 2.97. Let's adjust that to 2.77 to 3.07 because of the defensive downgrade from Carlos Pena to Dan Johnson and from Carl Crawford to Johnny Damon. Because of Hellickson's great strand rates in the minors (77.8% career LOB% in the minors, 81.0% at Double-A, 77.3% at Triple-A) let's put him at the lower range of that. I would project Hellickson's ERA in 2011 to be around 2.87. (That doesn't mean that Hellickson necessarily deserves that ERA- it's just that the Rays play great defense and he plays in a pitchers' park.) Would that win him Rookie of the Year? It would certainly place him in the top two or three players in the voting if the Rays can score him some runs and win him some games. It was also put him on the outside edge of the Cy Young conversation. That would be pretty ridiculous, considering it would be the best ERA among starting pitchers on the team according to what I've said in this post. But Hellickson is just that good. He has the ability to post a 5 to 1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing just 7 homers every 90 innings. Expect a grand entrance for Jeremy Hellickson in his rookie season in the big leagues.
Bullpen:
If you've read any of my other previews, you know that immediately after the 'bullpen' section of my previews, I put a 'closer' section. However, the Rays are going with a closer by committee approach. I'm just going to group all 7 Rays relievers in this section and give my opinion about if and how each reliever relates to the closer role.
Saying Kyle Farnsworth has a bad rep is an understatement. Farnsworth, signed to a one year, 2.7 million dollar contract by the Rays this offseason, with an option for a second year, has always had the 'stuff'. He has a 100 MPH fastball and an unhittable slider, but no command. Farnsworth not only has given up 3.9 walks per 9 innings, but he has allowed 1.3 homers per 9 as well, and even allowed an 8.6 H/9. He owns a 4.39 career ERA that's mediocre at best. But in 2010, Farnsworth, who will turn 35 on April 14th, appeared to finally make some sort of breakthrough. After posting a 2.19 ERA and saving 16 games in 2005, Farnsworth posted just a 4.55 ERA from '06 to '09. But in 2010, Farnsworth was able to stop the bleeding and have a pretty good year, going 3-2 for the Royals with a 3.34 ERA, 61 K's, just 19 walks, and 9 holds in 60 relief appearances and 64.2 IP. He allowed 55 hits, a 7.7 H/9, and just 4 homers, a 0.6 HR/9. But, you had to notice that Farnsworth only recorded 9 holds. Farnsworth has averaged 15 holds per season since 2001. (A hold is when a reliever retains a team's lead in a save situation without actually recording a save.) So why did he appear in less save situations? Of course, because he appeared in games with less pressure. aLI is a stat that registers the average amount of pressure a player is under per appearance, with 1.00 being average. In 2010, Farnsworth had just a .87 aLI, compared to his 1.1 career aLI. Under less pressure, Farnsworth was able to succeed, but what about when he returns to regular pressure with the Rays in 2011? In 2010, Farnsworth allowed just a .204 BAA in low leverage situations, and .188 in medium leverage situations, but .333 in high leverage situations. He'll be facing a lot more high leverage situations for the Rays, so if those numbers hold true again, he'll be awful. But also, in reality, Farnsworth wasn't even that great in low and medium situations. He allowed just a .252 BAbip in those situations. There's only one reason to have any amount of hope in Farnsworth- this is his final chance to be that relief pitcher, that unhittable lockdown closer who blew by every hitter. If Farnsworth fails, he may never get another opportunity to pitch anywhere where he has an opportunity to close. He 2005, Farnsworth allowed a .159 BAA in 102 high leverage plate appearances. Can he do that again? You wouldn't normally think so, but with the right motivation, and with the right opportunity, you never know. (Prediction: Farnsworth posts a 3.50 ERA even while pitching in high leverage situations and saves double-digit games for the first time since '05.)
Joel Peralta is a relatively similar pitcher to Farnsworth. Peralta, signed by the Rays this offseason to a one year, 9.25 million dollar contract, turned 35 on March 23rd, and had his best season in the majors with the Nationals in 2010, going 1-0 with a 2.02 ERA, 49 K's, just 9 walks (4 of which were intentional), and 9 holds in 39 relief appearances and 49 IP. He allowed 30 hits, a 5.5 H/9, and 5 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. Peralta forced the Nats to call him up in late June after an outstanding half-season in the minors, going 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA, 38 K's, just 7 walks, and 20 saves in 28 relief appearances and 33.1 IP. Is Peralta going to be a productive big league reliever from here on out? You would up so, but there are some obvious red flags. First of all, Peralta allowed just a .203 BAbip in '10. He allowed such a low BAbip despite allowing a barely better than average 18% LD%, and just a 26% GB%. He allowed a crazy 56% FB%. However, many of those fly balls were really popups- Peralta allowed an amazing 20% IF/FB. Nevertheless, he was certainly at least somewhat lucky in terms of BAbip. He also allowed a bit too few homers, considering he had a 6.8% HR/FB. But the good news is that even if his ERA jumps .75, he would still post a 2.77 ERA. But, Peralta managed just a 3.02 FIP and a 3.43 xFIP (what Peralta's FIP would have been if he allowed a league average HR/FB), so maybe an ERA under 3.00 is a bit too optimistic. In addition, just like Farnsworth, Peralta didn't pitch in too many high pressure games, ending up with a .72 aLI that was significantly lower than even Farnsworth's aLI in '10. However, maybe Peralta isn't as much of a risk under high pressure as you would think he would be. Peralta allowed a .204 BAA in low leverage situations and a .057 BAA in medium leverage situations, but he still allowed a .179 BAA in 30 high leverage plate appearances against him. Peralta certainly won't be as great as he was in 2010, but he can certainly manage a low-3.00's ERA. Maybe he'll even get a chance to save a few games. Joel Peralta was a great sign for the Rays, and he should be a good reliever for them.
Considering that J.P. Howell saves 17 games for the Rays in 2009, you would think that he would be a favorite for the Rays' closer job in 2011. But, Howell missed all of 2010 with a shoulder surgery on his left, pitching shoulder. Howell, who will celebrate his 28th birthday on April 25th, expected to be out until at least mid-May in 2011. Could he be the Rays' closer after he comes back? Obviously, if he's healthy and pitches well, then of course, and if he struggles some other player will close. There's honestly no point of mentioning his '09 stats for the Rays, because you never know how Howell will pitch when he comes back. J.P. Howell is the X-factor in the Rays bullpen. He could be anywhere from an effective closer to a non-factor for the Rays 2011.
Andy Sonnanstine was a pretty good starter on the 2008 AL Champion Rays winning 13 games, but after posting just a 6.77 ERA in 2009, Sonnanstine was demoted to the bullpen in 2010, and although he was certainly better than he was in '09, he didn't impress anybody, going 3-1 with a 4.44 ERA, 50 K's, 27 walks, not a single hold, but 1 save in 37 starts, 4 relief appearances, and 81 IP. The 28 year old right-hander allowed 83 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.2 per 9, and 11 homers, a 1.2 HR/9. Is he going to do any better in his second season as a full-time reliever? Maybe he'll make an adjustment, but there's no proof from the stats that that's going to happen. Sonnanstine had a .277 BAbip in '10 compared to his .310 BAbip despite posting a 19% LD% that was exactly his career average. He did post a career-high 45% GB% and a 15% IF/FB. Maybe you could argue that his BAbip was right around where it should be, but he certainly wasn't unlucky. In terms of homers allowed, he allowed an 8.5% HR/FB, so he was just a bit unlucky. Maybe when that evens out, he'll have a 1.0 HR/9. He also managed all these stats while posting just a .51 aLI. Sonnanstine's career-best in ERA is 4.38 (from when he was a starter in '08). Why should we expect him to be any better than that? Unless Sonnanstine all of a sudden starts thriving out of the bullpen, he won't be any better than a halfway-decent reliever for the Rays in 2011.
24 year old lefty Jake McGee had an outstanding 8-relief appearance major league debut in 2010, posting a 1.80 ERA. McGee should make his full-season debut in 2011, as long as he pitches well. McGee posted a 3.57 ERA with a 10.2 K/9 in 19 minor league starts, but once he was promoted to Triple-A and became a full-time reliever, he was outstanding, posting a 0.52 ERA and a 14.0 K/9 in 10 starts and a relief appearance. However, he had a ridiculous 91.7% LOB%. But, there weren't that many runners on to begin with as he allowed just a 4.7 H/9 and a 1.6 BB/9. But, the back-and-forth continues as McGee didn't allow a single home run. McGee has electric stuff (94 MPH fastball, 77 MPH slider with nice bite), but we'll have to see whether he has the poise to be an effective big league reliever. A 0.75 ERA in 10 spring training relief appearances was certainly a good sign. Jake McGee has the potential to a great middle reliever for the Rays, even a closer, but we'll have to see whether he can handle big league hitters in his rookie season even without the good luck he had in the minors.
Adam Russell, who will turn 28 on April 14th, has 51 major league relief appearances under his belt (including 2 in 2011) but has never been able to stick on any big league club. Russell was drafted and made his major league debut with the White Sox, but then he was traded to the Padres in the Jake Peavy trade. Just a year and a half later, the Padres traded him to the Rays in the Jason Bartlett deal. Russell owns just a 4.53 major league ERA despite just a .50 aLI. In the minors, Russell owns just a 3.93 ERA, 3.83 in the past 3 seasons at Triple-A, where he's pitched exclusively in relief. He has recorded 23 saves, 14 of which came in 2010. In 2010, Russell went 4-9 with a 4.88 ERA, 51 K's (8.9 K/9), 32 walks (5.6 BB/9), and the aforementioned 14 saves in 50 starts and 51.2 IP. He allowed 58 hits, a 10.1 H/9, and 4 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. However, he did allow a .351 BAbip. He has the ability to be a decent major league reliever. If Mike Ekstrom wasn't so awful in spring training (10.13 ERA), there's no chance that Russell would have made the Rays with a 6.30 ERA. Still, he's on the team, and maybe with a legitimate opportunity, he'll pitch OK. Adam Russell should be a decent reliever for the Rays in 2011.
Cesar Ramos, a 26 year old lefty also acquired in the Bartlett trade, was awful in 14 big league relief appearances for the Padres in '10 (11.88 ERA), but he did pretty well at Triple-posting a 3.28 ERA, although he struck out just 63 (5.9 K/9) and walked 43 (4.0 BB/9) in 15 starts, 15 relief appearances, and 96 IP. He allowed 90 hits, an 8.4 H/9, and 7 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. He allowed a .289 BAbip, although he did have a 78.3 LOB%. Ramos somehow has persevered through not being to strike out very many batters to be a decent minor league relief pitcher. But, it makes a lot of sense why he has a 6.00 career major league ERA in 21 appearances. He's a lefty, so it was worth giving him another chance, but also considering he had a 6.17 ERA, it's hard to expect anything better than a halfway-decent season from Ramos if he even lasts the whole year in the bullpen. Cesar Ramos is a decent reliever at best for the Rays.
In 2008, Juan Cruz had an outstanding season with the Arizona Dimaondbacks, posting a 2.61 ERA. But, considering he was a Type-A free agent (the team that signed him would have to forfeit their first round draft pick unless they were one of the worst 15 teams in MLB the previous season), and he had posted just a .88 aLI and 8 holds in '08, every team neglected to go after him until the Royals finally signed him on February 28, 2009. However, after posting a 5.72 ERA in '09, he was released in April of '10 and didn't pitch in professional baseball the rest of the season after undergoing right shoulder surgery to remove a cyst. But, the Rays signed Cruz to a minor league contract this past offseason, and after posting a 0.90 ERA in 9 relief appearances, Cruz made the big league roster. How will he do? Well, if his shoulder is fully healed, maybe he could return to being that pitcher who struck out over a batter per inning from '01 to '08. But even during that time period, he had 4.00 ERA, mostly because of a 4.6 BB/9 and a 0.9 H/9. If he's healthy, Cruz should put up similar numbers. Juan Cruz should be a decent reliever for the Rays in 2011.
Overview:
The Rays have a pretty good offense, a solid defense, and a very good rotation, but their bullpen is going to really hold them back. They have no proven closer, and at least three of their relievers are unknown commodities. In order for the Rays no contend, the bullpen needs to be solid, and that doesn't appear to be in the works. Andrew Friedman (the Rays' GM) better find some relievers in trades, or the Rays could have one of the worst bullpens in the big leagues. Whether through career-years or trades, the Rays need a solid bullpen to contend with the Yankees and Red Sox, but that's going to be awfully tough.
(For my AL East previews, I'm not going to list a prediction for the standings because obviously I'm biased.)
Catcher:
John Jaso is not your average big league catcher. Although the Rays don't run a Moneyball scheme, Jaso is the perfect Moneyball catcher. The 27 year old hit .263 in '10 with 18 doubles, 5 homers, and 44 RBI in 109 games. Defensively, Jaso was league-average at best, posting a .992 Fld%, just a 23% CS%, and 7 passed balls, the third most in the AL. (He did have an 8.02 RF/9 [range factor per 9 innings], second in the AL.) So what made Jaso a good player for the Rays? His .372 OBP. Even at Triple-A, Jaso hit .271 with 10 homers in 138 games, but he had a .356 OBP. Will we see any signs of improvement from Jaso in 2011? If so, only subtle signs. Jaso had a .282 BAbip (batting average on balls in play) in '10 compared to the league average of .297. He had a 19% LD% (line drive percentage among balls in play), which was exactly the league average, so you could think that maybe if that causes his BAbip to even out, he could hit .275. But, while his LD% was average, his hit way too many ground balls, posting a 46 GB% (ground ball percentage among balls in play). He also posted a 15% IF/FB (percentage of fly balls on the infield [i.e. popups] among balls in play) compared to the league average of 13%. His .282 BAbip was right around where it should have been. In terms of hitting homers, Jason had just a 3.5% HR/FB (percentage of balls hit to the outfield that go for homers) compared to the league average of 7.8%, so you would think that he could hit as many as 15 homers in 2011 if he gets sufficient at-bats. But, that's simply not the case. Jaso just isn't a power hitter. He sacrifices power for contact. Jaso's 74% IP% (percentage of plate appearances that end with a ball in play) compared well to the league average of 69%, but he sacrificed power for contact. Not only did he have just a 3.5% HR/FB, but also he had just a 6.4% XBH% (percentage of plate appearances ending in an extra-base hit), and a 29% X/H% (percentage of extra base hits among the total amount of hits) compared to the league averages of 7.8% and 33% respectively. He's just a contact hitter with no power. Jaso would be lucky to hit 10 homers in 2011. Jaso doesn't strike out at all (9.7% of his plate appearances compared to the league average of 18.0%), and he walks a ton (14.6% of his plate appearances compared to the league average of 8.7%), but that's all he'll ever be. He's an on-base guy. It's nice to have a player like Jaso, but he's the kind of player that will probably never be an All-Star. Purely because of his OBP, John Jaso is a pretty good player for the Rays.
Jaso will be backed up by Kelly Shoppach. At his best, you could argue that Shoppach is better than Jaso. In 2008, Shoppach hit .261 with 27 doubles, 21 homers, 55 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 112 games for the Cleveland Indians. But, that was not the case in 2011. Shoppach, who will turn 31 on April 29th, hit just .196 in '10 with 8 doubles, 5 homers (as many as Jaso!), 17 RBI, and a .308 OBP in 63 games. He missed from mid-April to early June because of a knee surgery that really derailed his season. Shoppach had a career low 12% LD% (somehow he had a .313 BAbip) along with just a 44% IP%, but I'm hoping we can blame those problems on the knee injury. Defensively, Shoppach actually posted a .994 Fld% (7.63 RF/9) and allowed just 2 passed balls, but he posted just a 17% CS%. Shoppach's upside at this point in his career is somewhere close to his spring training numbers. He hit just .238, but he hit 7 homers and drove in 22 RBI in 17 games. He could provide great power as a backup catcher whenever he has an opportunity to make a start, and he could be a pinch-hitter late in games. At worst, he's an awful backup catcher who's a bad hitter and a worse fielder who would be immediately be cut and replaced by a younger backup. The most likely scenario lies somewhere in the middle. Kelly Shoppach should provide good depth behind John Jaso in 2011.
First base:
It's finally Dan Johnson's time to shine. Johnson, who turned 31 this past August, came up with the Oakland A's and had a good rookie season in 2005, hitting .275 with 21 doubles, 15 homers, 58 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 109 games. But after hitting .234 in '06 and .236 in '07, Johnson was supplanted at first base by Daric Barton, and he ended up being put on waivers and being claimed by the Rays. After spending nearly all of 2008 at Tampa's Triple-A Durham and spending '09 in Japan, Johnson returned to America in 2010, and after hitting .303 with 30 homers and 95 RBI at Durham, he was given another chance in the big leagues. Johnson hit just .198 in 40 games, but he hit 7 homers, including 5 against the Yankees and Red Sox, drove in 23 RBI, and posted a .343 OBP. How will Johnson do with an opportunity for a starting job in 2011? Throughout his career, Johnson has been very unlucky. Johnson has just a .243 career BA, but that's because of just a .250 career BAbip despite a 19% career LD%. When that evens out, Johnson should certainly hit .275 again. In terms of hitting homers, you know that Johnson is a power hitter, and accordingly he owns an above-average 9.9% career HR/FB. He should certainly hit 20 homers in 2011. Johnson probably won't be a great player for the Rays in 2011, but he should be solid. Defensively, Johnson is an average first baseman, owning a .995 Fld% with average range (9.53 RF/9 compared to the league average of 9.49). Johnson will be backed up by starting right fielder Ben Zobrist and starting second baseman Sean Rodriguez. Finally given a second chance, Dan Johnson should be a good player for the Rays in 2011.
Second base:
Sean Rodriguez, who will turn 26 on April 26th, had a nice first full season in the majors in 2010 (it was not his rookie season), hitting .251 with 19 doubles, 9 homers, 40 RBI, 13 stolen bases (3 CS), and a .308 OBP in 118 games. Like Zobrist and Elliot Johnson, Rodriguez plays everywhere, but at his primary position, second base, Rodriguez posted a league average .984 Fld% with average range (4.78 RF/9 compared to the league average of 4.80). Rodriguez posted an 1.000 Fld% at first base, shortstop, third base, left field, centerfield, and right field, including above-average range at the corner positions. We know what Rodriguez is defensively, but can he improve offensively in 2011? At first glance, you might have to be fearful of a worse year for Rodriguez in 2011. He managed a .324 BAbip despite just a 17% LD%. But, you have to realize how big a factor speed is in BAbip. A faster runner who consistently makes contact can reach base more than the average player because of infield hits and bunt hits. Rodriguez had 14 infield hits and 7 bunt hits. Removing his infield hits and bunt hits from the BAbip equation, Rodriguez had a .300 BAbip. Rodriguez should not be in danger to hit below .250 in 2011. In terms of Rodriguez's 9 homers, he had a 7.6% HR/FB that was right around the league average. But, Rodriguez hit 29 or more homers twice in the minors, so he certainly has above-average pop. While Tropicana Field might negate a bit of Rodriguez's power, expect his HR/FB to go up in 2011 and for him to hit a few more homers. Also, keep in mind that Rodriguez received just 378 plate appearances in 2011. I would not be surprised if Rodriguez hits .265 in '11 with 15 homers, 75 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .320 OBP if he receives regular playing time. Sean Rodriguez might not be a great player, but he's certainly a very productive player for the Rays, and he'll be even better in 2011.
Rodriguez will be backed up by Zobrist and Elliot Johnson. Johnson, a 27 year old utility player, had his best overall season in the minors in 2011, hitting .319 with 24 doubles, 11 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 72 runs, 30 stolen bases (6 CS), and a .375 OBP in 109 games. He played second base, shortstop, right field, and left field. He played a very good second base, posting a .987 Fld% with a 4.81 RF/G. (There are no minor league records for innings played by a fielder, so there's no RF/9 I can state. The AL average for RF/G was 4.75 in '10.) Johnson had an unbelievable spring, hitting .341 with 1 homer, 5 RBI, and a .449 OBP. Oh yeah, and 12 stolen bases, easily the most on the team, without being caught a single time. Johnson seems like he can be a decent hitting and fielding backup that could certainly steal some bases when he gets on. He'll also be used as a pinch-runner. Johnson could be the next good utility player the Rays have in the mold of Ben Zobrist. He'll be a good backup. The Rays have good depth at second base.
Third base:
It's always nice to have one of the best players in the majors on both sides of the ball on your team. The Rays look like complete geniuses for signing Evan Longoria to a contract extension even before he made it to the big leagues (it was announced after he came up). Longoria, now 25, had another great season in 2011, hitting .294 with 46 doubles, 22 homers, 104 RBI, 5 triples, 96 runs, 15 stolen bases (5 CS), and a .372 OBP in 151 games. The .294 BA, 46 doubles, 5 triples, 15 stolen bases, and .372 OBP were all career-highs. However, the 22 homers was a career-low. What happened? Well, in order to understand that, let's start with his BAbip. Longoria had a career-high .336 BAbip despite a career-low 20% LD% Why was that? Longoria set a career-high with 16 infield hits. It's not like Longoria became faster, so it must have been that Longoria had more opportunities to beat out grounders. Why was that? Well, everyone first guess must be that he hit more ground balls than ever before. Yet according to Fangraphs, Longoria hit more ground balls in 2009 than in 2010. His 37% GB% in 2010 was actually the lowest of his career. Since that first guess was wrong, I would like to propose a different solution: .that Longoria was more ready to beat out ground balls than before. What I mean is that with 2 strikes, Longoria started looking more for contact rather than trying for contact, but still waiting for a pitch he could drive. Longoria hit a career-low .186 with 2 strikes in '10 with 8 homers. In 2009, Longoria hit .214 with 14 homers in two strikes. He also had just a .289 BAbip with 2 strikes in '10 compared to .333 in '09. Longoria actually had the lowest IFH% (infield hit percentage among ground balls) of his career, according to Fangraphs. So what happened? Well, according to Fangraphs, Longoria only had 12 infield hits in '10. But I told you above that he had 16! Well, that was according to Baseball-Reference. Why is there the discrepancy? Well, line drives can also remain on the infield. Maybe Longoria wasn't quite ready for a few pitches he should have slammed, and rather than hitting those pitches to the outfield as line drives, he hit soft liners to the infield. Four of them had to end up as singles. Longoria sacrificed some power for some additional contact. He had a career-high 66% IP% in '10 compared to 62% in '09 (it was only a 4% increase because the trends that I'm talking about were with two strikes), and a 78% contact percentage (percentage of swings in which he made contact) in '10 compared to 75% in '09. This increase in contact came along with a decrease in power. Longoria's 8.5% HR/FB was easily the lowest of his career, compared to 15.2% in '08 and 12.8% in '09. Longoria's HR/FB is somewhat diluted by some of the weak fly balls he hit because he was just trying to make contact with two strikes. So what can we expect from Longoria is 2011? I would expect an adjustment from Longoria with two strikes in '10 and while his BA might go down a few points, he'll certainly hit 30 home runs. Defensively, Longoria won his second straight Gold Glove, posting a .966 Fld% compared to the league average of .956 and a 2.74 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.67. Longoria will be backed up by Ben Zobrist, Dan Johnson, Elliot Johnson, and Sean Rodriguez. Evan Longoria had a great season for the Rays in 2010, but expect him to be even better in 2011 as he makes an adjustment to his two-strike approach.
However, Longoria will miss at least the first couple weeks of the season with an oblique injury. That could certainly limit his stats and possibly his production when he returns. You have to hope that Longoria will be OK when he comes off the DL, but we can't know for sure.
While Longoria is hurt, Felipe Lopez will have a big league job. Lopez hit just .233 between the Cardinals and Red Sox in '10, one year after hitting .310, with 18 doubles, 8 homers, 37 RBI, 8 stolen bases, and a .311 OBP in 113 games. Lopez's BAbip fell from .358 to .273 from '09 to '10 due to a decrease in LD% from 22% to 19%. Also, his FB% shot up from 26% and 34%, and since Lopez isn't a power hitter (5.8% career HR/FB, 5.6% in '10), that was a huge problem for him. In addition, Lopez struck out in 18.4% of his plate appearances in 2010 compared to just 14.7% in '09. Lopez had an awful season in 2011 without being lucky, and at age 31 there was no guarantee that he was going to rebound, so he only received a minor league deal from the Rays. (Elliot Johnson beat him out for a roster spot before the Longoria injury). Defensively at third base, Lopez posted just a .920 Fld% with a 2.37 RF/9 in 60 games, and just a .970 Fld% at shortstop with a 3.59 RF/9 compared to the league average of 4.31 in 25 games. But, he did post a perfect 1.000 Fld% at second base with a 5.16 RF/9 in 25 games, and he was also perfect in 2 games at first base. In 1 game each in right field and at pitcher, he received no fielding chances. Speaking of the pitching performance, he actually pitched a scoreless inning against the Mets in a 20 game on 4/17/10, but unfortunately for Lopez, the lineups in the American League are a lot harder. Lopez should be a decent backup as long as he's on the big league roster.
Shortstop:
Reid Brignac had an opportunity in 2010, and he took advantage. The 25 year old middle infielder received playing time with Jason Bartlett struggling, and he certainly played just as well as Bartlett if not better, hitting .256 with 13 doubles, 8 homers, 45 RBI, and a .307 OBP in 113 games. Brignac actually had a .317 BAbip, primarily because of a 23% LD%, but his BA was still around .250 because he strikes out a lot for a hitter with average power (23.6% of his plate appearances). Speaking of his power, he had a below-average 6.7% HR/FB, but there was a clear reason for that. He hit 8 homers against righties compared to none against lefties. Brignac, a lefty batter, hit just .227 against lefties in '10. He could lose some starts against lefties. Defensively, Brignac was pretty significantly below-average defensively at second base, posting a .976 Fld% and a 4.76 RF/9, but he while his .976 Fld% was above-average, although his 4.33 RF/9 was a bit below the league average of 4.40. But, it was a small sample size as he played in just 50 games at the position, so maybe he'll be better in 2011. Still, Brignac is a decent player overall for the Rays. He'll be backed up by Zobrist, Elliot Johnson, and Sean Rodriguez. Reid Brignac might be as good of a player as Jason Bartlett, but apparently that isn't saying very much.
Left field:
Johnny Damon is still around even at age 37, but coming off his worst season in the big leagues, the Rays were able to sign him for a bit of a reduced price, 5.25 million dollars on a 1-year contract. Damon hit .271 with the Tigers in '10, with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 51 RBI, 5 triples, 81 runs, 11 stolen bases, and a .355 OBP in 145 games. Damon had a .312 BAbip in '10 thanks to a 21% LD%, and he took full advantage with a 72% IP%. So how did he hit just .271? In 2009, he hit .282 with a .305 BAbip! The difference was home runs. Damon's BA was higher in 2010 because he hit 24 home runs. In 2010, he hit just 8, and although he had a lower strikeout rate, it counted more because he had less at-bats (11 less to be exact). How will Damon do offensively in 2011? Well, he's bound to hit a few more homers moving from Comerica to Tropicana, and maybe he could hit .280. He certainly won't be the great player he used to be, but he'll still be a pretty good player. Defensively, Damon DH'd 98 times, and rightfully so because he was awful defensively, posting just a .964 Fld% compared to the league average of .984, and a 1.99 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.07. At this point of his career, Damon is just a pretty good player for the Rays.
Damon will be backed up by Sam Fuld in addition to all the utility players. Fuld, acquired in the Matt Garza trade, hit .299 in 63 games as a backup for the Cubs in 2009, but spent almost all of 2010 at Triple-A Iowa, hitting .272 with 15 doubles, 4 homers, 27 RBI, 9 triples, 21 stolen bases, and a .383 OBP in 112 games. Defensively, Fuld was outstanding posting a .996 Fld% with a 2.58 RF/G that was just above the NL average of 2.58 for centerfielders. At age 29, Fuld isn't really a prospect anymore, but he profiles well as a backup outfielder. He should be fine in his first full season as a backup.
Centerfield:
B.J. Upton never became THAT player. Upton had the potential to be a great 5-tool player, but that just didn't happen. In 2010, Upton, now 27, hit .237 (no average tool), 38 doubles, 18 homers, 62 RBI (just decent power), 89 runs, 42 stolen bases (fine, he's fast), but 9 CS, and just a .322 OBP in 154 games. Defensively, Upton posted a .988 Fld% compared to the AL average of .990, although he did post a 2.77 RF/9 compared to the 2.73 average. He posted just 3 outfield assists. Will Upton ever show signs of being more than a base stealer with a little pop? Well, Upton had a .304 BAbip, but he owns a .334 career BAbip, so that's pretty low for him. He had a 19% LD% that was just below his career average of 20%, but he posted a 59% IP% that was his lowest since 2007. In terms of his 18 homers, Upton was actually lucky to hit that many, posting a 9.2% HR/FB compared to his career average of 7.9%. Upton is a pretty good player, but he'll never be more than a speedster. Upton will be backed up by Fuld and the utility players. B.J. Upton is a pretty good player at best for the Rays.
Right field:
As you've seen throughout this post, Ben Zobrist plays everywhere, but his native position in 2011 will be right field. Zobrist, who will turn 30 on May 26th, certainly had a down year in '10 in comparison to his outstanding 2009 season, hitting just .238 with 28 doubles, 10 homers, 75 RBI, 77 runs, 24 stolen bases (3 CS), and .346 OBP in 151 games. In 2009, he hit .297 with 28 doubles, 27 homers, 91 RBI, 91 runs, 17 stolen bases (6 CS), and a .405 OBP in 152 games. If there was one stat to contrast the two seasons, it's slugging percentage. Zobrist's slugging percentage went into a free-fall from .543 to just .353. What the heck happened? Simply, his homers stopped coming. His HR/FB fell from 12.7% all the way down to 4.7%. To figure out why, we're going to have to look at everything. Zobrist had a .326 BAbip in 2009 compared to .273 in '10, causing the significant drop in BA along with the decrease in homers. The cause for the drop in BAbip was obviously his LD%. Zobrist managed an incredible 24% LD% in 2009, but that fell to just 18% in 2010, while his IF/FB went up from 9% to 13% and his GB% went up from 41.5% to 44.1%. Zobrist's IP% did go up from 62% to 67% and of course his stolen bases went up from 17 to 24, but obviously the decrease in homers and line drives ruined his season. Zobrist may not be a power hitter, but he has to make solid contact rather than just any contact. Zobrist is going to be the leadoff hitter for the Rays in '10. While a leadoff single to start off an inning is nice, an extra-base hit is even better. Zobrist needs to get back to that in 2011. Zobrist hit 4 homers in spring training and hit a homer off of Jim Johnson on Opening Day. He doesn't need to hit 30 homers, but he has to get back on track in terms of hitting the ball better. You have to think that with Crawford and Pena gone, Zobrist is going to step up and maybe not post his 2009 numbers, but certainly have a much better season that 2010. Defensively, Zobrist was perfect in 103 games in right field, posting a 2.26 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.10, and he was also perfect at first base and in centerfield (with below average range). However, he was decent at best at second base, posting a .984 Fld% that was exactly the league average and a 4.61 RF/9 compared to the league average of 4.80. But, he did post an 11.5 UZR (ultimate zone rating), so he was certainly doing something right. Zobrist also played limited time at third best and left field, posting a .500 Fld% at third (1 error in 2 chances), and not even having a chance in left. He's not only a versatile fielder, but a good one as well. Ben Zobrist had an off-year in 2010, but expect him to come back strong in 2011 and be one of the Rays' offensive leaders.
Zobrist will be backed up by Matt Joyce, Sam Fuld, Elliot Johnson, and Sean Rodriguez. Joyce, 26, had a pretty good season as a backup for the Rays in 2010, hitting .241 with 15 doubles, 10 homers, 40 RBI, and a .360 OBP in 77 games. Joyce actually had a .273 BAbip despite a 19% LD%, but whatever evening out his BAbip will do will be canceled out by his strikeout rate (21.1% in '10), and that he doesn't put many balls in play anyway (59% IP% in '10). He did have a 10.8% HR/FB in '10, but that's expected from a hitter with his pop. Joyce posted a great 2.34 RF/9 in right field with 4 outfield assists, but he posted just a .972 Fld%. Maybe he could take advantage of his range more in 2011. If Joyce plays well, he'll take away some starts from Sean Rodriguez as Zobrist moves to second base. He'll also get some at-bats at DH. The Rays have some nice depth in right field for whenever Zobrist needs a day off or moves to another position.
Designated Hitter:
Manny Ramirez will turn 39 on May 30th, but his 1 year, 2 million dollar contract with the Rays will be a steal if he remains motivated. Not only was Manny unmotivated in 2010, but he also could not stay healthy, missing time with a nagging calf injury and a hamstring stain. When he did play, Manny did OK, hitting .298 with 16 doubles, 9 homers, 42 RBI, and a .409 OBP in 90 games between the Dodgers and White Sox. Manny did that in 320 plate appearances. Let's say Manny stays motivated and relatively healthy and makes 500 similar plate appearances. Projecting his 2010 stats over 500 plate appearances, Manny would hit 25 doubles and 14 homers while driving in 66 runs. That would be just decent production. But in '10, although Manny had a 23% LD% that was right around his career norms, he had just an 8.3% HR/FB, his lowest since 1993. He career HR/FB is 15.7%. Maybe Manny wasn't 'motivated' enough to hit home runs. Let's say his HR/FB returns to the 11.9% that it was in 2009. And of course, Manny also had a low XBH% by his standards (7.8%) and a low X/H% (32%) so let's say those go back up to Manny's 10.4% XBH% and 44% X/H% from 2010. And, let's assume that these additional extra base hits cause Manny to drive in more runs, and his AB per RBI ratio goes from the 6.3 it was in '10 to the 5.6 it was in '09. Now Manny hits 19 doubles, 20 homers, and assuming he walks in 18.5% of his plate appearances as he has so far in his career, 72 RBI. The Rays would certainly take that. The expectations can't be for Manny to have a ridiculous season, but if he's motivated Manny could certainly hit 20 homers and drive in 70 runs. Will Manny do that? I would doubt it, but Manny he could hit 17 homers and drive in 65 or something along those lines. As long as the Rays keep Manny motivated, he should be fine. In case you were wondering (which you shouldn't be), the reason Manny will be playing almost exclusively DH is because he's a completely liability defensively, considering he posted just a .959 Fld% in left field in '10 with a 1.75 RF/9. Manny will have some of his DH at-bats taken away by Johnny Damon and Matt Joyce. If the Rays can keep Manny Ramirez motivated, he should be a pretty good DH for them.
Starting rotation:
In 2010, Price finally became that dependable ace that he was supposed to be ever since he was the number 1 overall pick in the 2007 MLB draft. The 25 year old lefty went 19-6 in '10 with a 2.72 ERA, 188 K's, and just 79 walks in 31 starts, a relief appearance, and 208.2 IP. He allowed just 170 hits, a great 7.3 H/9 (hits per 9 innings ratio), and 15 homers, a 0.6 HR/9 (home runs per 9 innings ratio). Was 2010 just the beginning for Price, or should we expect a regression? Well seeing that Price allowed a .272 BAbip in '10, your first thought would be to have some amount of trepidation. But, Price should be fine in terms of hits allowed. In 2010, Price allowed an 18% LD, a 14% IF/FB and a 44% GB%. Maybe his BAbip will go up to around .280 in 2011, but that shouldn't be too much of a problem for Price. He also allowed a 66% IP%, so not that many balls were put in play against him anyway. But, Price did have a 79% LOB% (left on-base percentage- percentage of baserunners allowed that did not score; also known as strand rate) compared to the league average of 72%. LOB% is a lot of luck especially relating to homers. If you allow a walk than a homer, then you allow 2 runs, but if you allow a homer than a walk and than get out of the inning, you only allow 1. Price might also regress in terms of homers allowed in 2011. Price allowed a 1.2 HR/9 in 2009, but that was cut in half to 0.6 in 2010. But, the cause for that drop was a significant drop in HR/FB from 8.4% to 5.4%. Price will take a bit of a step back in 2011. As his H/9 goes up to say 7.7, his LOB% approaches 72%, and his HR/9 goes up to 0.9, his ERA should sneak to right around 3.00. That would still be a great year, but he won't finish second in the Cy Young award voting again in 2011. David Price is a great pitcher for the Rays, but his outstanding 2010 may have set expectations just a bit too high.
James Shields is coming off his worst season in the big leagues, yet he's still slotted as the Rays' number two starter. He better make the Rays confidence in him pay off. Shields, who turned 29 on December 20th, went just 13-15 in '10 with a 5.18 ERA, but 187 K's compared to just 51 walks in 33 starts, 1 relief appearance, a 203.1 IP. He had an outstanding 3.67 strikeout to walk ratio, but his problems were that he allowed 246 hits, a 10.9 H/9, and 34 homers, a 1.5 HR/9. The 246 hits and 34 homers allowed were the most in the AL, and he also led the AL in earned runs allowed with 117. Will Shields rebound in 2011? Well, Shields certainly didn't have an awful season with average luck. That theory seems easily supported because Shields allowed a .344 BAbip in '10. But, he did that while allowing a 22% LD% that was significantly above the league average, a below-average 10% IF/FB, and a 41% GB% that was right around the league average. His BAbip also hurt him more because he allowed a league-average 69% IP%. Shields' BAbip certainly wasn't that far off from what it should have been. Shields had an off-year from his .310 career BAbip, rather than .297 or less. Considering he set a career-high for LD% against him and a career-low for GB% against him and his IF/FB was his lowest since 2010, maybe it does make some amount of sense that he allowed a .344 BAbip. So did he have an awful season or is he just a bad pitcher? Shields is not a bad pitcher. He allowed a 10.0% HR/FB in '10 compared to his career average of 8.8% and a 68.4% LOB% compared to his career average of 71.3%. When everything evens out, Shields should allow less homers and strand more runners. But how will those stats even out? How do these ratios magically return to neutral? While there is some amount of luck in baseball, nearly all improvements are made by adjustments. If Shields worked hard with pitching coach Jim Hickey, he'll have a better season, and if not, he won't. But, knowing Shields, we know that he put the work in, and pending injury, he'll have a much better season in 2011. Will he be able to post the 3.56 ERA he put up in '08? That's doubtful, but the 4.14 ERA he posted in '09 is certainly within reach. (ZiPs has Shields posting a 4.38 ERA, and that might be a bit more likely than Shields than a 4.14 ERA.) James Shields isn't a great pitcher, but he's a motivated one. Expect a rebound in 2011.
Wade Davis received a 4 year, 12.6 million dollar contract extension following his rookie season. Not too shabby. The 25 year old right-hander went 12-10 in '10 with a 4.07 ERA, 113 K's, and 62 walks (a bit off a 2.0 K/BB) in 29 starts and 168 IP. He allowed 165 hits, an 8.8 H/9, and 24 homers, a bad 1.3 HR/9. Davis led all AL rookies in wins, and finished second in strikeouts, and he also led all qualifying AL rookies (162 IP minimum) in ERA. It was a good rookie season, but he will be able to be a good major league pitcher over the next 4 years? Well, it has to worry you at least a little bit that Davis posted a .274 BAbip in 2010. And despite that BAbip, Davis still allowed an 8.8 H/9! Davis' BAbip might not be that far off what it should be, considering he allowed just a 17% LD% and a 15% IF/FB. However, he allowed just a 39% GB%. Davis is an extreme fly ball pitcher (allowing a 44% FB% [fly ball percentage]), and he just allows a lot of hits. Making matters worse, Davis actually had a 78% LOB%. He wasn't unlucky to allow an 8.8 H/9, but he was lucky to strand the amount of baserunners he did. But at least he was unlucky in terms of homers allowed. He allowed an 8.7% HR/FB. But even when that evens out, he'll still probably allow a 1.0 HR/9! Bill James and Marcel have Davis posting an ERA's of 4.09 and 4.01 respectively, but I'll have to agree with ZiPs, who has Davis posting a 4.52 ERA. Unless he has an uncanny ability to strand runners on base, Davis is not a good enough pitcher to post a low-4.00's ERA. He allows too many hits and too many homers. FIP (fielding-independent pitching equivalent of ERA) is a stat that is calculates an ERA for pitchers while only regarding the aspects of baseball that the pitcher can control- strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and homer allowed. The final result of the calculation looks like an ERA. Despite his 4.07 ERA in '10, Davis had a 4.79 ERA. His lack of a 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio along with the large amounts of homers he allowed still give him a bad FIP while disregarding his 8.8 H/9. The Rays better hope Davis makes an adjustment in 2011 or does have that uncanny ability to strand runners, or Davis could be a disappointment and even post an ERA around the 4.79 FIP that he posted in 2011. You have to assume that the Rays know something I don't in signing Davis to the 4-year extension, but it's certainly worth asking whether Davis can be a good major league pitcher. Based on the data available, it's hard not to think that Davis will suffer a bit of sophomore slump in 2011.
Maybe Davis' sophomore slump in 2011 will be similar to Jeff Niemann's sophomore slump that he went through in 2010. Niemann, who turned 28 on February 28th, finished 4th in the 2009 AL Rookie of the Voting after going 13-6 with a 3.94 ERA, but went 12-8 in '10 with a 4.39 ERA, 131 K's, and 61 walks in 29 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 174.1 IP. He allowed 159 hits, an 8.2 H/9, and 25 homers, the same bad 1.3 HR/9 that Davis posted. But something very strange happened to Niemann from '09 to '10- his BAbip actually went down from .302 to .266. He cut his 21% LD% to just 15%, and he increased his GB% from 41% to 44%. His LOB% even stayed about the same, going down slightly from 73.7% to 73.4%. So why did he do worse? Well first of all, he wasn't able to take advantage of the lower BAbip as much because he decreased his IP% from 72% to 69%. But that's not the real reason. Niemann's HR/9 jumped from 0.8 in '09 to 1.3 in '10 because his HR/FB shot up from 6.0% to 10.0%. So how will Niemann do in 2011? Well if he can allow a 15% LD% again, causing a BAbip around .270 again while his HR/FB evens out to around 8.0%, causing his HR/9 to go down to around 1.0, Niemann should be able to put up an ERA under 4.00 again. Jeff Niemann made a big adjustment in 2010, only to let unlucky in another regard. If everything evens out for Niemann in 2011, he'll certainly have the best season of his career.
Jeremy Hellickson excited the baseball world from the moment he came up, going 7 innings in his major league debut against the Twins on August 2nd, earning the win as he allowed just 2 runs on 3 hits, and struck out 6 while walking just 2. Hellickson, who will turn 24 on April 8th, made 4 major league starts for the Rays, and he was just as dominant if not more so, going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA, 25 K's, and just 4 walks in 26.1 IP. He did allow just a .209 BAbip, but he allowed just a 13% LD%. Hellickson did post a 7.20 ERA in 6 September relief appearances, but he was filling an unfamiliar role. Hellickson has the potential to be as good as he was in those four August starts. Maybe that won't be this year, but nevertheless, Hellickson is one of the front-runners for Rookie of the Year. Will he be good enough to win it? First, let's take a look at his gaudy minor league stats. Overall in the minors, Hellickson went 49-16 with a 2.71 ERA, a 9.8 K/9 (strikeouts per 9 innings ratio), and a 2.1 BB/9 (bases on balls [walks] per 9 innings ratio). He held batters to a 7.4 H/9 (.290 BAbip), and a 0.7 HR/9. Takings his outstanding 7.4 H/9 out of the picture, Hellickson still managed a 2.91 FIP. But, talking his whole minor league career obviously encompasses the lower levels in the minors, where an outstanding prospect in Hellickson dominating the competition. Hellickson actually owns his third-best ERA at any level in the minors at Triple-A (2.47), but he did post a 2.43 ERA at SS-A and a 2.67 ERA at Low-A. Let's look at Double-A, where Hellickson struggled the most (3.27 ERA) among all the levels in which he played 5 or more games (he had a 6.00 ERA in 4 games at Rookie ball in 2005), and then Triple-A. At Double-A, Hellickson made 24 starts over 2 seasons, which isn't that far off from how many games he'll start for the Rays in 2011. He went 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA, 141 K's (9.6 K/9), and 29 walks (2.0 BB/9) in 132 IP. He allowed 125 hits, an 8.5 H/9 (.313 BAbip), and 19 homers, a 1.3 HR/9. The 8.5 H/9 and 1.3 HR/9 were the second-worst of his career at any level, again trailing only Rookie ball. He posted a 3.71 FIP. That might be the worst case scenario for Hellickson, pending injury. He's that good. At Triple-A, Hellickson basically pitched as much as he will for the Rays in 2011, making 30 starts. He went 18-4 with a 2.47 ERA, 193 K's (9.9 K/9), and 50 walks (2.6 BB/9) in 175 IP. He allowed 134 hits, just a 6.9 H/9 (.231 BAbip), and just 9 homers, a 0.5 HR/9. He managed an outstanding 2.71 FIP. We probably won't see another FIP like that from Hellickson until if and when he wins the AL Cy Young. The most likely scenario for Hellickson's FIP in 2011 certainly isn't his 2.91 career FIP in the minors- it's much more similar to the 3.21 FIP that's the average between his 3.71 FIP at Double-A and his 2.71 FIP at Triple-A. How will that FIP translate into an ERA for Hellickson? Well, looking at the FIP's and ERA's of the Rays 5 starters in 2010 (the 4 pitchers listed above plus Matt Garza), they averaged a .24 decrease from FIP to ERA. But, taking out James Shields, who had a .94 increase from his FIP to his ERA, they averaged a decrease of .54. That would put Hellickson's projected ERA somewhere from 2.67 to 2.97. Let's adjust that to 2.77 to 3.07 because of the defensive downgrade from Carlos Pena to Dan Johnson and from Carl Crawford to Johnny Damon. Because of Hellickson's great strand rates in the minors (77.8% career LOB% in the minors, 81.0% at Double-A, 77.3% at Triple-A) let's put him at the lower range of that. I would project Hellickson's ERA in 2011 to be around 2.87. (That doesn't mean that Hellickson necessarily deserves that ERA- it's just that the Rays play great defense and he plays in a pitchers' park.) Would that win him Rookie of the Year? It would certainly place him in the top two or three players in the voting if the Rays can score him some runs and win him some games. It was also put him on the outside edge of the Cy Young conversation. That would be pretty ridiculous, considering it would be the best ERA among starting pitchers on the team according to what I've said in this post. But Hellickson is just that good. He has the ability to post a 5 to 1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing just 7 homers every 90 innings. Expect a grand entrance for Jeremy Hellickson in his rookie season in the big leagues.
Bullpen:
If you've read any of my other previews, you know that immediately after the 'bullpen' section of my previews, I put a 'closer' section. However, the Rays are going with a closer by committee approach. I'm just going to group all 7 Rays relievers in this section and give my opinion about if and how each reliever relates to the closer role.
Saying Kyle Farnsworth has a bad rep is an understatement. Farnsworth, signed to a one year, 2.7 million dollar contract by the Rays this offseason, with an option for a second year, has always had the 'stuff'. He has a 100 MPH fastball and an unhittable slider, but no command. Farnsworth not only has given up 3.9 walks per 9 innings, but he has allowed 1.3 homers per 9 as well, and even allowed an 8.6 H/9. He owns a 4.39 career ERA that's mediocre at best. But in 2010, Farnsworth, who will turn 35 on April 14th, appeared to finally make some sort of breakthrough. After posting a 2.19 ERA and saving 16 games in 2005, Farnsworth posted just a 4.55 ERA from '06 to '09. But in 2010, Farnsworth was able to stop the bleeding and have a pretty good year, going 3-2 for the Royals with a 3.34 ERA, 61 K's, just 19 walks, and 9 holds in 60 relief appearances and 64.2 IP. He allowed 55 hits, a 7.7 H/9, and just 4 homers, a 0.6 HR/9. But, you had to notice that Farnsworth only recorded 9 holds. Farnsworth has averaged 15 holds per season since 2001. (A hold is when a reliever retains a team's lead in a save situation without actually recording a save.) So why did he appear in less save situations? Of course, because he appeared in games with less pressure. aLI is a stat that registers the average amount of pressure a player is under per appearance, with 1.00 being average. In 2010, Farnsworth had just a .87 aLI, compared to his 1.1 career aLI. Under less pressure, Farnsworth was able to succeed, but what about when he returns to regular pressure with the Rays in 2011? In 2010, Farnsworth allowed just a .204 BAA in low leverage situations, and .188 in medium leverage situations, but .333 in high leverage situations. He'll be facing a lot more high leverage situations for the Rays, so if those numbers hold true again, he'll be awful. But also, in reality, Farnsworth wasn't even that great in low and medium situations. He allowed just a .252 BAbip in those situations. There's only one reason to have any amount of hope in Farnsworth- this is his final chance to be that relief pitcher, that unhittable lockdown closer who blew by every hitter. If Farnsworth fails, he may never get another opportunity to pitch anywhere where he has an opportunity to close. He 2005, Farnsworth allowed a .159 BAA in 102 high leverage plate appearances. Can he do that again? You wouldn't normally think so, but with the right motivation, and with the right opportunity, you never know. (Prediction: Farnsworth posts a 3.50 ERA even while pitching in high leverage situations and saves double-digit games for the first time since '05.)
Joel Peralta is a relatively similar pitcher to Farnsworth. Peralta, signed by the Rays this offseason to a one year, 9.25 million dollar contract, turned 35 on March 23rd, and had his best season in the majors with the Nationals in 2010, going 1-0 with a 2.02 ERA, 49 K's, just 9 walks (4 of which were intentional), and 9 holds in 39 relief appearances and 49 IP. He allowed 30 hits, a 5.5 H/9, and 5 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. Peralta forced the Nats to call him up in late June after an outstanding half-season in the minors, going 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA, 38 K's, just 7 walks, and 20 saves in 28 relief appearances and 33.1 IP. Is Peralta going to be a productive big league reliever from here on out? You would up so, but there are some obvious red flags. First of all, Peralta allowed just a .203 BAbip in '10. He allowed such a low BAbip despite allowing a barely better than average 18% LD%, and just a 26% GB%. He allowed a crazy 56% FB%. However, many of those fly balls were really popups- Peralta allowed an amazing 20% IF/FB. Nevertheless, he was certainly at least somewhat lucky in terms of BAbip. He also allowed a bit too few homers, considering he had a 6.8% HR/FB. But the good news is that even if his ERA jumps .75, he would still post a 2.77 ERA. But, Peralta managed just a 3.02 FIP and a 3.43 xFIP (what Peralta's FIP would have been if he allowed a league average HR/FB), so maybe an ERA under 3.00 is a bit too optimistic. In addition, just like Farnsworth, Peralta didn't pitch in too many high pressure games, ending up with a .72 aLI that was significantly lower than even Farnsworth's aLI in '10. However, maybe Peralta isn't as much of a risk under high pressure as you would think he would be. Peralta allowed a .204 BAA in low leverage situations and a .057 BAA in medium leverage situations, but he still allowed a .179 BAA in 30 high leverage plate appearances against him. Peralta certainly won't be as great as he was in 2010, but he can certainly manage a low-3.00's ERA. Maybe he'll even get a chance to save a few games. Joel Peralta was a great sign for the Rays, and he should be a good reliever for them.
Considering that J.P. Howell saves 17 games for the Rays in 2009, you would think that he would be a favorite for the Rays' closer job in 2011. But, Howell missed all of 2010 with a shoulder surgery on his left, pitching shoulder. Howell, who will celebrate his 28th birthday on April 25th, expected to be out until at least mid-May in 2011. Could he be the Rays' closer after he comes back? Obviously, if he's healthy and pitches well, then of course, and if he struggles some other player will close. There's honestly no point of mentioning his '09 stats for the Rays, because you never know how Howell will pitch when he comes back. J.P. Howell is the X-factor in the Rays bullpen. He could be anywhere from an effective closer to a non-factor for the Rays 2011.
Andy Sonnanstine was a pretty good starter on the 2008 AL Champion Rays winning 13 games, but after posting just a 6.77 ERA in 2009, Sonnanstine was demoted to the bullpen in 2010, and although he was certainly better than he was in '09, he didn't impress anybody, going 3-1 with a 4.44 ERA, 50 K's, 27 walks, not a single hold, but 1 save in 37 starts, 4 relief appearances, and 81 IP. The 28 year old right-hander allowed 83 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.2 per 9, and 11 homers, a 1.2 HR/9. Is he going to do any better in his second season as a full-time reliever? Maybe he'll make an adjustment, but there's no proof from the stats that that's going to happen. Sonnanstine had a .277 BAbip in '10 compared to his .310 BAbip despite posting a 19% LD% that was exactly his career average. He did post a career-high 45% GB% and a 15% IF/FB. Maybe you could argue that his BAbip was right around where it should be, but he certainly wasn't unlucky. In terms of homers allowed, he allowed an 8.5% HR/FB, so he was just a bit unlucky. Maybe when that evens out, he'll have a 1.0 HR/9. He also managed all these stats while posting just a .51 aLI. Sonnanstine's career-best in ERA is 4.38 (from when he was a starter in '08). Why should we expect him to be any better than that? Unless Sonnanstine all of a sudden starts thriving out of the bullpen, he won't be any better than a halfway-decent reliever for the Rays in 2011.
24 year old lefty Jake McGee had an outstanding 8-relief appearance major league debut in 2010, posting a 1.80 ERA. McGee should make his full-season debut in 2011, as long as he pitches well. McGee posted a 3.57 ERA with a 10.2 K/9 in 19 minor league starts, but once he was promoted to Triple-A and became a full-time reliever, he was outstanding, posting a 0.52 ERA and a 14.0 K/9 in 10 starts and a relief appearance. However, he had a ridiculous 91.7% LOB%. But, there weren't that many runners on to begin with as he allowed just a 4.7 H/9 and a 1.6 BB/9. But, the back-and-forth continues as McGee didn't allow a single home run. McGee has electric stuff (94 MPH fastball, 77 MPH slider with nice bite), but we'll have to see whether he has the poise to be an effective big league reliever. A 0.75 ERA in 10 spring training relief appearances was certainly a good sign. Jake McGee has the potential to a great middle reliever for the Rays, even a closer, but we'll have to see whether he can handle big league hitters in his rookie season even without the good luck he had in the minors.
Adam Russell, who will turn 28 on April 14th, has 51 major league relief appearances under his belt (including 2 in 2011) but has never been able to stick on any big league club. Russell was drafted and made his major league debut with the White Sox, but then he was traded to the Padres in the Jake Peavy trade. Just a year and a half later, the Padres traded him to the Rays in the Jason Bartlett deal. Russell owns just a 4.53 major league ERA despite just a .50 aLI. In the minors, Russell owns just a 3.93 ERA, 3.83 in the past 3 seasons at Triple-A, where he's pitched exclusively in relief. He has recorded 23 saves, 14 of which came in 2010. In 2010, Russell went 4-9 with a 4.88 ERA, 51 K's (8.9 K/9), 32 walks (5.6 BB/9), and the aforementioned 14 saves in 50 starts and 51.2 IP. He allowed 58 hits, a 10.1 H/9, and 4 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. However, he did allow a .351 BAbip. He has the ability to be a decent major league reliever. If Mike Ekstrom wasn't so awful in spring training (10.13 ERA), there's no chance that Russell would have made the Rays with a 6.30 ERA. Still, he's on the team, and maybe with a legitimate opportunity, he'll pitch OK. Adam Russell should be a decent reliever for the Rays in 2011.
Cesar Ramos, a 26 year old lefty also acquired in the Bartlett trade, was awful in 14 big league relief appearances for the Padres in '10 (11.88 ERA), but he did pretty well at Triple-posting a 3.28 ERA, although he struck out just 63 (5.9 K/9) and walked 43 (4.0 BB/9) in 15 starts, 15 relief appearances, and 96 IP. He allowed 90 hits, an 8.4 H/9, and 7 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. He allowed a .289 BAbip, although he did have a 78.3 LOB%. Ramos somehow has persevered through not being to strike out very many batters to be a decent minor league relief pitcher. But, it makes a lot of sense why he has a 6.00 career major league ERA in 21 appearances. He's a lefty, so it was worth giving him another chance, but also considering he had a 6.17 ERA, it's hard to expect anything better than a halfway-decent season from Ramos if he even lasts the whole year in the bullpen. Cesar Ramos is a decent reliever at best for the Rays.
In 2008, Juan Cruz had an outstanding season with the Arizona Dimaondbacks, posting a 2.61 ERA. But, considering he was a Type-A free agent (the team that signed him would have to forfeit their first round draft pick unless they were one of the worst 15 teams in MLB the previous season), and he had posted just a .88 aLI and 8 holds in '08, every team neglected to go after him until the Royals finally signed him on February 28, 2009. However, after posting a 5.72 ERA in '09, he was released in April of '10 and didn't pitch in professional baseball the rest of the season after undergoing right shoulder surgery to remove a cyst. But, the Rays signed Cruz to a minor league contract this past offseason, and after posting a 0.90 ERA in 9 relief appearances, Cruz made the big league roster. How will he do? Well, if his shoulder is fully healed, maybe he could return to being that pitcher who struck out over a batter per inning from '01 to '08. But even during that time period, he had 4.00 ERA, mostly because of a 4.6 BB/9 and a 0.9 H/9. If he's healthy, Cruz should put up similar numbers. Juan Cruz should be a decent reliever for the Rays in 2011.
Overview:
The Rays have a pretty good offense, a solid defense, and a very good rotation, but their bullpen is going to really hold them back. They have no proven closer, and at least three of their relievers are unknown commodities. In order for the Rays no contend, the bullpen needs to be solid, and that doesn't appear to be in the works. Andrew Friedman (the Rays' GM) better find some relievers in trades, or the Rays could have one of the worst bullpens in the big leagues. Whether through career-years or trades, the Rays need a solid bullpen to contend with the Yankees and Red Sox, but that's going to be awfully tough.
(For my AL East previews, I'm not going to list a prediction for the standings because obviously I'm biased.)
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
2011 MLB Preview: Chicago Cubs
102 years. The Cubs have gone 102 years without a World Series championship. In 2010, the Cubs weren't even close to even making the playoffs, let alone make a run at the World Series, going just 75-87, 5th in the NL Central. The Cubs are a different team now after acquiring Matt Garza in a trade with the Rays and Carlos Pena as a free agent while re-signing Kerry Wood. Will it be enough to propel the Cubs back to the playoffs?
Catcher:
The 2008 NL Rookie of the Year, 28 year old catcher Geovany Soto, finally came back to have a good season after a sophomore slump. Soto hit .280 with 18 doubles, 17 homers, 53 RBI, and a .393 OBP in 105 games. He was on the 15-day DL two separate times with a right shoulder injury, so you have to hope he can stay healthier because obviously, he's a better option than any of the Cubs' backup catchers. But, why did Soto go from a .285 BA in 2008 to a .218 BA in 2009 back up to a .280 BA in '10? It's nice for Soto and the Cubs that it happened, but why did it happen? What happened was his BAbip (batting average on balls in play) went from .332 in '08 to .246 in '09, back up to a .324 BAbip in '10. (The league average is .300.) But, why did that happen? Basically, what happened was that Soto had such an awful season in 2009 that it couldn't be predicted by any regular means. His LD% (line drive percentage) was an above-average 21% in his rookie season, but fell to just 16% in 2009 (the league average is 19%). In 2010, Soto's LD% came back with a vengeance, spiking all the way up to 25%. When Soto got a pitch to hit in 2010, he didn't often miss. But, that spike in LD% coincided with a decrease in IP% (in-play percentage). Soto's IP% was 63% in 2008, and actually went up to 64% in 2009. Soto traded some hard hits for more contact in 2009, and needless to say it didn't work out. In 2010, Soto traded quite a bit of contact for his high LD%, posting just a 58% IP%. (Keep in mind that Soto was putting the ball in play at a below-average rate from the beginning. The league average for IP% is 69%.) But, since that 58% IP% came along with the highest walk rate of his career (16.0% of his plate appearances compared to 12.9% in '09 and 11.0% in '08), it was certainly OK. How much can you complain about a .280 BA and a .393 OBP? In terms of his 17 homers in '10 though, he was very lucky to hit that many, needing a 12.1% HR/FB (percentage of balls hit to the outfield that went for homers). When he hit 23 homers in 2008, he had a 10.6% HR/FB. His HR/FB returned to right around neutral in 2009, falling to just 7.9%. That decline in 2009 had much more to do with his lack of hard contact rather than anythign else. Maybe his HR/FB will fall back down to around 10% in 2011, but if Soto stays healthy, he'll be OK. But, there's one more thing that could possibly be an issue: aLI (average leverage index- the average amount of pressure a player is under per game; 1.0 is average). In 2008, Soto primarily batted 5th, 6th, and 7th (but also occasionally 8th), and he was under a lot of pressure on the playoff-bound Cubs, having a 1.05 aLI. In 2009, Soto, despite his poor performance, batted primarily 5th, 6th, and 7th (but only almost never 8th), and had a 1.10 aLI. But in 2010, Soto batted primarily 7th and 8th, and had easily the lowest aLI of his career, .96. Soto took advantage of pitchers thinking that he wasn't such a good hitter anymore since he was batting in the latter part of the lineup, and was able to get some nice hits. We'll have to see where in the lineup Soto bats in '10, and if he bats higher up, he'll have to live up to the pressure. Soto is a decent defender, considering he posted a .995 Fld% at catcher in '10, but he had just a 22% CS%. He did allow only 2 passed balls. Because of his low CS%, Soto is just a decent defensive catcher. Overall, Geovany Soto was a good player in '10. He'll be a good player again in '11 as long as he can stay healthy, keep his LD% up, and survive higher-leverage situations if he's moved up in the lineup.
Soto will be backed up by Koyie Hill, who has been his regular replacement at catcher the past 2 seasons when he has suffered from injury or poor performance. Luckily for Soto, Hill was never able to prove himself as even a decent player when he has received starts. Hill, a 32 year old that came up in the Dodgers organization, hit just .214 in '10 with 13 doubles, 1 homer, 17 RBI, and just a .254 OBP in 77 games. It's not like Hill was very unlucky or something along those lines in '10- he had a .292 BAbip. Hill did have a 21% LD% and a 67% IP%, but he had a terrible 50.4% GB% (ground ball percentage). You could compare that to Soto's 36.0% GB% in 2010. Hill is an awful hitter, but most backup catchers earn their money defensively anyway. In 2010 though, Hill was awful defensively, posting a league average .992 Fld% with just an 18% CS% and 4 passed balls. Hill did have a .995 Fld% with a 40% CS% and just 2 passed balls in 2009, but that doesn't take away from how awful Hill was defensively in '10. Hill better rebound defensively, because his offense certainly won't (he has a career .215 BA in 256 career major league games). Hill needs a rebound defensively just to be an average big league backup, considering how bad of a hitter he is. Koyie Hill can give Soto an off-day every week or two, but if Soto gets hurt and he's forced to step in as the starter, the Cubs are in deep trouble.
First base:
From 2007 to 2010 with the Tampa Bay Rays, Carlos Pena's BA went down from .282 in '07 all the way down to .196 in '10. Can he rebound offensively with the Cubs? Pena, who will turn 33 in May, hit just .196 in '10 with 18 doubles, 28 homers, 84 RBI, and a .325 OBP in 144 games. Why did he hit just .196? He had just a .222 BAbip. But why did he have just a .222 BAbip? Turns out that Pena had the same problem in '10 that Soto had in '10- trading some hard hits for more contact. From 2007 to 2009, Pena had a 22% LD% and just a 49% IP%. In 2010, he had just a 17% LD%, but a 52% IP%. It's sort of ironic that Pena had his best IP% in a full season since 2004 with the Tigers in the year in which he posted the worse BA of his career. Pena had a 44.9% GB% in 2010. He had just a 29.0% GB% in 2009. Will Pena be able to get his BA back to at least back to the .227 BA that he had in '09 this season? If he wants to be a good hitter again, Pena has to hit more line drives. When he's at the plate, he can't worry about contact- he has to wait for his pitch and hit it well when he gets it. Everybody hates strikeouts, but Cubs fans while have to deal with Pena striking out around 160 times in 2011. If Pena can just get back to his approach from '07 to '09, he'll go down as a great signing for the Cubs. (In case you were wondering, Pena's 18.1% HR/FB in '10 was a bit below his 20.0% HR/FB the past 3 seasons, but Pena will definitely rebound in that regard. Defensively, it's hard to complain about Pena. He posted an above average .995 Fld% in '10 with above-average range (8.58 range factor per game [RF/G] compared to the league average of 7.41), but somehow he had a -2.5 UZR (don't ask me to explain ultimate zone rating). No matter what UZR says, it's hard to consider Pena a below-average defender. But, as long as Pena rebounds offensively, it doesn't matter too much exactly how good he does defensively. Carlos Pena needs to get back to hitting the ball hard in 2010, even if it costs him some amount of contact, and if he does, he'll end up being a great signing for the Cubs.
Pena will be backed up by the Cubs' primary infield backup, Jeff Baker, who is a natural second baseman, but who has experience at all 4 corner positions (although he'll primarily play just second base, first base, and third base). Baker, who will turn 30 in June, hit .272 in '10 with 13 doubles, 4 homers, 21 RBI, and a .326 OBP in 79 games. He had a .340 BAbip, but his career BAbip is .334, so it really wasn't that high (he has a 20% career LD%). Defensively, Baker posted just a .903 Fld% at third base, but was perfect in 26 games at second base while showing outstanding range (5.47 RF/9 compared to the 4.78 league average at second base), and he was also perfect in 4 games at first base and 4 in the outfield. For his career, Baker has a great .989 Fld% at second base with great range, a .939 Fld% at third base with above-average range, a .990 Fld% at first base with good range, and a .979 Fld% in 37 games in the outfield between left field and right field, showing poor range. Baker is a decent hitter, and he's very good defensively at second while being serviceable at the 4 corner positions. Jeff Baker is a good backup for the Cubs.
Second base:
25 year old Blake DeWitt, acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline in the Ted Lilly deal, hit .261 between the Dodgers and Cubs in '10 with 24 doubles, 5 homers, 52 RBI, 5 triples, and a .336 OBP in 135 games. DeWitt had a .313 BAbip, so he wasn't very lucky, but still, he hit just .261 with no other significant talents. He did have a 21% LD% and a 71% IP%, but no matter how many positive stats I say, DeWitt still hit .261. The one piece of goods news for the Cubs was that DeWitt had just a 3.2% HR/FB in 2010. When he had a closer-to-average 6.4 HR/FB in 2008, he hit 9 homers. DeWitt is not a good player, but maybe he would have at least some amount of value if he could hit double-digit homers. Defensively, DeWitt posted a below-average .979 Fld% at second base, although he did show slightly above-average range (4.83 RF/9 compared to the league average of 4.78). DeWitt was once an outstanding third baseman for the Dodgers, posting a great .969 Fld% at third base in 2008 (compared to the league average of .955) with a 3.10 RF/9 that was tops among NL third basemen. But, with Aramis Ramirez entrenched at third, DeWitt is stuck at second. DeWitt will be backed up by Jeff Baker, who could possibly take away significant playing time from DeWitt if his struggles continue. Blake DeWitt is a decent player at best for the Cubs.
Third base:
Aramis Ramirez used to be when of the best players in baseball. In 2006, Ramirez had arguably the best season of his career, hitting .291 with 38 doubles, a career-high 38 homers, a career-high 119 RBI, 93 runs, and a .352 OBP in 157 games. After the season, the Cubs re-signed Ramirez to a 5 year, 72 million dollar contract with a 16 million option for the 6th year. The first couple of seasons in the contract went well, with Ramirez hitting .310 with 26 homers and 101 RBI in '07, and .289 with 27 homers and 111 RBI in '08. But in '09, everything went wrong for Ramirez. He missed 11 games early in the season with a couple of minor injuries, but on May 9th, he suffered a dislocated left shoulder that sidelined him until July 6th. Ramirez also missed 14 days the rest of the year with various other injuries. Ramirez appeared in just 82 games, hitting .317 with 15 homers and 65 RBI. At least when he was healthy, he did well. But in 2010, while Ramirez was mostly healthy, the level of performance was just not there. Ramirez hit .241 with 21 doubles, 25 homers, 83 RBI, and just a .294 OBP in 124 games. Injuries have made Ramirez into a shadow over his former self. Ramirez had just a .245 BAbip in '10, compared to his .287 career BAbip. His low BAbip was because of just a 16% LD%, the lowest of his career. And unlike Soto and Pena, it didn't come with an increase in IP%. He had a 70% IP%, the third-lowest of his career. His career IP% is 73% and he had a 75% IP%. In my opinion and in the opinion of many others, there's no way Ramirez ever gets back to being a star. If everything goes right in 2011, maybe Ramirez will stay healthy and hit .280 with 25 homers and drive in 100 runs. But, chances are he'll only play in around 100 games hit around .250, hit maybe 17 homers and drive in 70 runs. Maybe even that's optimistic. Defensively, Ramirez posted just a .939 Fld% at third base in '10 with just a 2.21 RF/G compared to the league average of 2.54. Ramirez has always been a below-average defender (.948 career Fld%, .251 RF/G), but in 2010, he took that to new levels. Ramirez will be backed up by Baker. 2011 is Ramirez's contract year. It's unfortunate that in all likelihood, Ramirez will be fighting through an injury-riddled season and be signing a minor league contract with someone next offseason even though he'll be just 33 years old.
Shortstop:
Young shortstop Starlin Castro had a very good rookie year in '10, hitting .300 with 31 doubles, 3 homers, 41 RBI, 5 triples, 10 stolen bases, and a .347 OBP in 125 games. Castro, who will turn 21 on March 24th, was the the youngest player in the NL but still ranked 10th in the league in BA. Castro had a .346 BAbip in '10, but that was because of a 20% LD% and a great 78% IP%. Wait a second- he had a 51.3% GB%. How did he manage to hit .300 with such a high ground ball rate? Was he just really lucky in '10? Well, although you may not have noticed it because of Castro's low amount of stolen bases, but he's very fast. He stole 28 bases in his only full minor league season. Castro was among the league leaders in the NL with 25 infield hits. As long as Castro can keep beating out those infield hits, he'll be fine. Defensively however, Castro needs work. He posted just a .950 Fld% at SS compared to the league average of .972, although he did post slightly above-average range (4.33 RF/G compared to the league average of 4.31). He made the second-most errors in the NL (behind Nats shortstop Ian Desmond). The Cubs have to hope that Castro's poor range in 2010 was just an aberration. After all, he did have a 4.74 RF/G at shortstop in the minors. Hopefully the Cubs coaching staff can fix Castro's defensive problems. Castro is a good player overall for the Cubs, but while he looks to improve offensively in 2011, his poor defense could hold him back.
Castro will be backed up by Darwin Barney. Barney, a 25 year old middle infielder, hit .241 in 30 games for the Cubs with 4 doubles, no homers, 2 RBI, and a .294 OBP. Barney posted a .976 Fld% between shortstop, second base, and third base, with both of his errors coming at second base. At Triple-A Iowa, Barney hit .299 with 24 doubles, 2 homers, 49 RBI, 4 triples, 72 runs, 11 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 114 games. He posted a .970 Fld% at shortstop in the minors (exactly the league average). Barney posted just a 4.14 RF/G compared to the 4.27 RF/G that was the NL's league average at shortstop. You have to hope that his poor range at second was somewhat of a fluke, especially considering he owns a 4.32 RF/G in the minors. Barney was perfect in 2 games at second base. Darwin Barney doesn't seem like a great backup, considering his not a great hitter and he's only decent defensively, but at least he's a better defensive shortstop than Baker, and he'll be good enough as a backup for the Cubs.
Left field:
Alfonso Soriano, now 35 years old, had a bounce-back year of sorts in '10, hitting .258 with 40 doubles (his most since 2007), 24 homers, 79 RBI, and a .322 OBP in 147 games (his most since 2006). Soriano was healthy in 2011, missing just 6 games due to injury, and it paid off. It's unfortunate for him that he's nothing compared to the player he used to be. Remember when Soriano used to be a player that had a chance to go 40-40 every single year? Soriano went 39-41 in 2002, 38-35 in 2003, 36-30 in 2005, and then finally 46-41 in 2006. He was just 24-5 in 2010. Soriano had a .295 BAbip with an 18%, so there's no reason to think his BA will ever climb back up to his .277 career average again. Soriano had a 10.4% HR/FB in '10, a bit short of his 11.7% career HR/FB, so maybe Soriano's best-case scenario in 2011 has him hitting 30 homers. Soriano is still a decent hitter, but he won't be anywhere near the player he's supposed to be based on his contract (which still has 4 years and 72 million dollars remaining). Defensively, Soriano was pretty awful, posting just a .968 Fld% compared to the league average of .985 for left fielders, with poor range (1.70 RF/9 ocmpared to the league average of 2.17). It's sad that Alfonso Soriano, who used to be one of the best players in baseball, is now a decent player at best.
Soriano will be backed up by Tyler Colvin and either Reed Johnson or Fernando Perez, who are competing for the Cubs 5th outfielder job. Colvin, OK now after the broken bat incident, had a nice rookie season, hitting .254 with 18 doubles, 20 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 6 stolen bases, and a .316 OBP in 135 games. The 26 year old outfielder had a .296 BAbip in '10 despite a 17% LD% and a 61% IP%, so he may never hit too much better than he did in '10. He also had an astronomical 15.6% HR/FB, so he might have hit homers at a lesser rate in coming years (not that he won't ever hit 20 homers- he received just 394 plate appearances in 2010). It's clear that Colvin just isn't that good of a player. Defensively, Colvin is pretty awful, considering he posted a .967 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions in '10 with poor range in left field and center field. He posted just a .952 Fld% in right field. Colvin seems like he'll be best suited in a backup role unless he makes huge improvements both offensively and defensively. Johnson, back with the Cubs after playing for the LA Dodgers in 2010, hit .262 in '10 with 11 doubles, 2 homers, 15 RBI, and a .291 OBP in 102 games. He did miss most of August with back spasms. He was actually perfect defensively in the outfield in '10 and even showed above-average range in left field. He's a solid backup as long as he stays healthy. Perez, acquired in the Matt Garza trade, spent all of 2010 at the Rays' Triple-A Durham, hitting just .223 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, 32 RBI, 24 stolen bases, and a .280 OBP in 116 games. Perez, who will turn 28 in April, hit .288 with 43 stolen bases at Durham in 2008, but then missed almost all of '09 after undergoing surgery for a dislocated wrist, playing in just 17 games in the minors and 18 in the majors. Maybe he was still suffering after-effects in '10.That must be the reason, especially considering Perez had a .287 BAbip. Defensively, Perez owns a .978 career Fld% in the outfield overall with solid range, so he's a decent player. In 37 career major league games (coming '07 and '08), he has not made a single error, so that's a good sign. Nevertheless, it doesn't appear that Perez is better than Johnson at all, so he'll probably be stuck in the minors to begin the year. The Cubs have solid depth behind Soriano.
Centerfield:
After signing with the Cubs in '10 after a career-year with the Texas Rangers, there was certainly some amount of doubt that Marlon Byrd would keep up his solid production, especially because not only was he leaving Arlington, but also he was turning 32. While maybe he didn't have as good year overall in '10, he certainly lived up to the billing, hitting .293 with 39 doubles, 12 homers, 66 RBI, 84 runs, and a .346 OBP in 152 games. Byrd had a .335 BAbip to help bring his BA up to .293 from .283 in '10. His LD% remained the same at 19% from '09 to '10, but the reason his BAbip went up from .308 to .335 was because his IF/FB (percentage of fly balls in the infield [i.e. percentage of fly balls that were popups]) shot down from 13% to 5%. Byrd improved his IP% from 73% in '09 to 75% in '10. Basically what happened was that Byrd made more contact in '10 than in '09 and more solid contact because although his LD% didn't increase, his IF/FB went down quite a bit. But, that increase in contact caused Byrd's HR/FB to go down from 8.5% to 5.6% from '09 to '10. That's why he went from 20 homers in '09 to 12 homers in '10. Still, Byrd is definitely a solid offensive player. Byrd is more well known for his stellar defense, and 2010 was no difference as he posted an above-average .992 Fld% in centerfield with above average range (2.69 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.59). He also had 6 outfield assists.Byrd is a very good player on both sides of the ball for the Cubs. Byrd will be backed up by Johnson or Perez. Marlon Byrd's stellar play has made the Cubs look good for signing him to a 3-year contract.
Right field:
2011 is the last year of Kosuke Fukudome's contract. He better produce offensively if he wants to stay in the US. Fukudome, who will turn 34 in April, hit .263 in '10 with 20 doubles, 13 homers, just 44 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 130 games. How he couldn't manage to drive in 50 runs is beyond me. He actually had his worst BAbip in the States, just .287, but still posted his best BA. His 17% LD% was also his lowest in the US, and his 11% IF/FB was the highest, so pretty much what happened was everything evened out for Fukudome and he proved to be a decent player. However, his 9.6% HR/FB was easily the highest of his career. Fukudome proved in '10 that he's at least an average major leaguer offensively. Defensively, Fukudome was rock-solid, posting a significantly above-average .995 Fld% with average range (2.14 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.17). He's a good player. He'll be backed up by Colvin and Johnson or Perez. Fukudome needs one more solid season to prove that he belongs on a major league team (if he doesn't want to return to Japan). He should be able manage that in 2011.
Starting rotation:
Ryan Dempster, who will turn 34 in May, didn't do anything besides put up another solid season in 2010, going 15-12 with a 3.85 ERA and 208 K's compared to 86 walks allowed in 34 starts and 215.1 IP. He allowed 198 hits, 8.3 per 9 innings, and 25 homers, a 1.0 HR/9. Dempster was actually pretty unlucky in 2011, allowing a .298 BAbip despite just a 14% LD%. He also allowed a good 47.4% GB%. Dempster only real problem, homers allowed (which led to his 3.99 FIP [fielding independent equivalent of ERA]), was actually a fluke, considering he allowed a 9.2% HR/FB compared to his career HR/FB to 7.8%. Dempster is really a good pitcher. Dempster is even a solid hitting pitcher. He did hit just .136 with 2 RBI, but he had 16 sac bunts. Ryan Dempster is a solid ace and deserves to start Opening Day for the Cubs.
Lining up as the Cubs' second starter in the rotation is 27 year old right-hander Matt Garza, acquired this offseason in the big trade with the Rays. Garza went 15-10 in '10 with a 3.91 ERA and 150 K's compared to 63 walks in 32 starts, 1 relief appearances and 204.2 IP. Garza alllowed 193 hits, an 8.5 H/9, and 28 homers, a bad 1.2 HR/9. It certainly wasn't a great performance by Garza, but it was his second-best ERA for a full season behind his 3.70 ERA in 2008. However, Garza posted his worst GB% in a season since 2006 (35.8%), and his worse FIP since '06 as well (4.42). Garza allowed a .273, certainly below the league average, but exactly at his average for the past 3 seasons. Could it be that Garza was just really lucky with the Rays? Garza allowed that .273 BAbip despite allowing a 20% LD%, a 69% IP%, and a 39% GB%. But, he did have an above-average 16% IF/FB. He also allowed just a 7.9% HR/FB during that time period. Also, you have to factor in that Garza is going from Tropicana Park, a pitcher's ballpark to Wrigley Field, which we all know is a hitter's park. It would seem that in switching between the two ballparks and factoring how, his ERA is going to start looking a lot more like his FIP's have been to the past 3 years (4.32). But, that would be if his BAbip actually returns to neutral. Considering Garza has posted a BAbip in the .270's for three consecutive years, will he be putting up those type of BAbip's for the foreseeable future? He better, or he'll be a huge disappointment for the Cubs.
Carlos Zambrano had a bizarre season in '10. He started the season in the rotation as the Cubs' ace, but after 4 starts in which he posted a 7.45 ERA, he was relegated to the bullpen. Zambrano posted a 4.15 ERA and 4 holds in 13 relief appearances between late April and late May. Zambrano then posted a 5.01 ERA in 5 starts after he returned to the rotation in June, but after that sub-par performance, the Cubs sent him down to the minor leagues for 4 relief appearances. But after he came back, he finally was himself again, he posted a 4.91 ERA in 3 relief appearances (primarily because he allowed a .500 BAbip) before he returned to the Cubs rotation once again. In 11 starts between August and September, going 8-0 with just a 1.41 ERA. At the end of it all, Zambrano actually had a good year, going 11-6 with a 3.33 ERA (his lowest since 2005), 117 K's, 69 walks, and 4 holds in 20 starts and 16 relief appearances. He allowed 119 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and just 7 homers, a 0.5 HR/9. He had a .309 BAbip, primarily because he allowed a 21% LD%, but he did have a 64% IP% and a 43.6% GB%. As long as he can stay consistently good, Zambrano will rise up to be the Cubs' ace once again. Considering that he's turning 30 in June and he has a vesting option in his contract if he finishes 1st or 2nd in the Cy Young voting this year, it would certainly be in his best interests and obviously the Cubs' if he can get back to being that great albeit crazy pitcher we all know him as. Good thing Zambrano is no slouch with the bat. Zambrano had another great hitting year for a pitcher in '10, hitting .231 with 1 homer, 6 RBI, and 2 sac bunts. It was a far cry from his two consecutive Silver Slugger seasons in '08 and '09 (in which he hit 4 homers each year), but it was still a good season for Zambrano. Carlos Zambrano is primed for a resurgence in 2011.
28 year old righty Randy Wells had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2010, but he still had a decent year, going just 8-14, but with a 4.26 ERA and 144 K's compared to 63 walks in 32 starts and 194.1 IP. He allowed 209 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.7 per 9, and 19 homers, a decent ratio of 0.9 per 9. Again, those are decent stats, but Wells went 12-10 with a 3.05 ERA, 104 K's, 46 walks, 165 hits allowed (9.0 H/9), and 14 homers allowed (0.8 HR/9) in 27 starts and 165.1 IP in his rookie year of 2009. What happened? Well, Wells allowed a .315 BAbip compared to a .292 BAbip his rookie year. His LD% climbed from 17% to 19%, but that should have been mostly canceled out because Wells IP% against him fell from 75% to 72%. His GB% also remained around the same, falling slightly from 47.9% to 46.9%. So what happened? His IF/FB and DP% (percentage of double plays out of opportunities) fell from 13% and 16% respectively to 9% and 7%. In addition, his LOB% dropped. LOB%, strand rate of base runners allowed, fell from 76.0% to 72.0%. When combine all those with Wells increase in HR/FB from 5.9% to 6.5%, that's why his ERA went up significantly. When everything evens out, hopefully Wells can get his ERA at least under 4.00 again. With the bat, Wells is a halfway-decent hitting pitcher, considering he hit .173 in '10 with 3 RBI and 9 sac bunts. Randy Wells is a pretty good pitcher for the Cubs.
Carlos Silva and Andrew Cashner are competing for the 5th slot in the Cubs rotation.
Silva had a decent year in 2010 despite missing almost all of August with cardiac ablation surgery, going 10-6 for the Cubs with 80 K's (a career high 6.4 K/9), and just 24 walks in 21 starts and 113 IP. He allowed 120 hits, a 9.6 H/9, and 11 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. Silva, who will turn 31 in late April did allow a .309 BAbip despite an 18% LD% and a 48.2% GB%. However, Silva did allow a 74% IP%. One potential problem with Silva going forward is HR/FB- he's bound to allow a few more homers in 2011 considering he allowed a 6.5% HR/FB in '10. Still, Silva is a decent pitcher overall and a perfectly fine 5th starter. But, what's worrying the Cubs and their fans has been Silva's performance so far this spring. Silva has an awful 15.88 ERA in 11.1 spring training innings, allowing 4 home runs. That's what has given Andrew Cashner an opportunity.
Cashner, a 24 year old right-hander, began 2010 so well between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa, going 6-1 with a 2.05 ERA in 9 starts and 2 relief appearances that he was quickly promoted to the major league club. With the Cubs, Cashner went 2-6 with a 4.80 ERA, 50 K's, 30 walks, and 16 holds in 53 relief appearances and 54.1 IP. Other than a stretch from July 27th to August 23rd in which Cashner was the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, allowing a .515 BAbip, Cashner did well, posting a 2.42 ERA with a .243 BAbip before that terrible stretch and a 1.53 ERA with a .279 BAbip after it. If he remains in the bullpen in 2011, Cashner should be able to piece it all together and have a very good season. But how would Cashner do in the rotation? In his minor league career, Cashner appeared in 43 games, 39 of which were starts, and he went 10-7 with a 2.79 ERA, 153 K's, 80 walks, 139 hits allowed (7.1 H/9), and 3 homers (a minuscule 0.2 HR/9) in 177.1 IP. He did have a .271 BAbip (there's no website that lists how many sac flies Cashner allowed in the minors, so that .271 number could be a few points off), so he was somewhat lucky. But at Double-A, where Cashner spent the most time, he had a 3.15 ERA, although he did have a .253 BAbip. Looking at that, Cashner maybe would have a high-3.00's ERA if he was starter in the majors (based on his BAbip evening out and the level switch). That would be better than Silva. Cashner is pitching to a High-3.00's ERA so far in spring training, posting a 3.97 ERA in 11.1 IP. Cashner will be given a long look for the 5th starter job, and if he does win the job, Silva will surely be traded. If Silva is given the nod, Cashner will have a spot in the bullpen.
Bullpen:
Kerry Wood always wanted to come back. The 33 year old right-hander turn down more lucrative offers from several teams to come back to the Cubs for the low price of just 1.5 million dollars on a 1-year contract. Sounds like a bit of a bargain for the Cubs. Wood began 2010 the Indians, but during camp, he suffered a shoulder strain and was out until May. From May until mid-July, Wood really struggled, appearing in 23 games saving 8 of 11 games, and posting a 6.30 ERA before he re-aggravated his shoulder strain and was put on the DL again. Wood didn't go off the DL until July 31st, when he was traded to the Yankees for two players to be named later. Once he arrived in New York, everything changed. Wood was healthy and was a dominant force in the Yankee bullpen, going 2-0 with 9 holds and just a 0.69 ERA in 24 relief appearances. Kerry Wood, the dominant pitcher, was back, albeit as a setup man. He'll play the same role in 2011, setting up Carlos Marmol. Overall in 2010, Wood went 3-4 with a 3.13 ERA, 49 K's, 29 walks, 35 hits allowed (6.8 H/9), 4 homers allowed (0.8 HR/.9), 10 holds, and 8 saves in 47 relief appearances and 46 IP. How will he do in 2011? Overall in 2010, batters had a .272 BAbip against Wood. He allowed a league average 19% LD% and a below-average 39% GB%, but the reason that Wood was so good was that he allowed just a 57% IP%. That 57% IP% goes right along with his 56% career IP%. That's one of the reasons why Wood has been a great pitcher in his career, at least for short stretches (with another reason being his 10.4 career K/9). Wood was somewhat lucky another regard in '10- HR/FB. He had a 6.3% HR/FB in '10 compared to his 8.6% career HR/FB. But the real potential problem for Wood in 2011 revolves around his LOB%. Wood allowed an extremely high 5.7 BB/9 in '10. How did he managed a low-3.00's ERA overall in '10 despite that high walk rate? An 81.4% LOB%. Wood's career LOB% is 76.3%. Despite all this, when everything evens out, Wood could have as good a year or better in 2011 when everything evens out. Wood was not anywhere near as bad as his stint in Cleveland in 2010 or as good as his stint with the Yankees. He obviously won't put up an ERA under 2.00 or anything, but he could certainly put up an ERA under 3.00. The worst-case scenario (unless he gets hurt) is Wood putting up his 3.45 career ERA as a reliever. While the Cubs would obviously want Wood to have a great year, whether he has an ERA under 3.00 or over 3.40, he'll be an effective setup man to help bridge the gap between the starters and Carlos Marmol. Kerry Wood certainly won't put up the 0.69 ERA that he had with the Yankees last season in 2011, but as long as he stays healthy, he'll be a good reliever for the Cubs.
28 year old lefty Sean Marshall had an outstanding year for the Cubs in 2010, going 7-5 with a 2.65 ERA, 90 K's, just 25 walks, 58 hits allowed (7.0 H/9), 3 homers allowed (0.4 HR/9), 22 holds, and 1 save in 80 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Marshall did this all while allowing a .297 BAbip. Marshall actually allowed a 23% LD%, but he had a great 52.2% GB% and he allowed a good 60% IP%. He also allowed a 74.3% LOB% that wasn't too far off from Marshall's career average of 72.1%. But, Marshall was extremely lucky in terms of HR/FB. He allowed just a 3.6% HR/FB compared to his 8.6% career HR/FB. He also allowed just a 4.9% XBH% (extra base hit percentage among batters faced) compared to the league average of 7.9% and his career average of 7.5%. When everything evens out, Marshall will certainly have a higher ERA, probably over 3.00. Even so, he's a good reliever, but he won't be one of the best lefty relievers in the majors in '10. Sean Marshall is due for a bit of a let-down in 2011, but he'll still be a good reliever for the Cubs.
I was at Thomas Diamond's major league debut this past season, an August 3rd start at Wrigley Field against the Milwaukee Brewers. Diamond, who will turn 28 in April, had a decent debut, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings, striking out 10 and walking 3 in a 4-3 loss to the Brewers. But, in his next 2 starts, Diamond allowed 9 combined earned runs in 7 combined innings. Those were his final starts of the year. Diamond was then relegated to the bullpen, where he did do better, but better is a comparative word. He went 1-0 with a 5.63 ERA and no holds. Is there any hope for Diamond in 2011? Well, Diamond had a .378 BAbip in '10, but he did allow an awful 25% LD%. According to that, it would appear the Diamond is just destined to be an awful reliever. However, Diamond allowed just a 54% IP%, a 65.2% LOB%, and a 9.4% HR/FB. When those all even out, hopefully Diamond will at least be a decent reliever. The best-case scenario for Diamond in 2011 is probably his 2009 season in the minors at Double-A Frisco in the Texas Rangers organization. At Frisco in '09, Diamond went 1-3 with a 3.63 ERA, 50 K's, 37 walks, 43 hits allowed (8.7 H/9), 3 homers allowed (0.6 HR/9), and 1 save (I can't find how many holds he had) in 32 relief appearances and 44.2 IP. Hopefully his control would be better though if he did put up similar numbers to that in 2011- he had an awful 7.5 BB/9. In '08 at Frisco, Diamond had a 72.3% LOB% and a 4.52 FIP. You have to think Diamond will be much better in 2011, giving the Cubs some decent long-relief innings, putting up an ERA in the low-4.00's or high-3.00's. Thomas Diamond should be a decent long reliever for the Cubs in 2011.
There are 5 relievers competing for the final two spots on the Cubs' pitching staff: Marcos Mateo, Jim Russell, Scott Maine, Jeff Samardzija, and Casey Coleman.
Mateo, who will turn 27 in April, had a good season in the minors in '10, going 0-1 with a 3.15 ERA, 45 K's, just 7 walks, 35 hits allowed (9.2 H/9), 2 homers allowed (0.5 HR/9), and 4 saves in 25 relief appearances, 1 of which was at Rookie ball, 16 of which were at Double-A Tennessee, and 8 of which were at Triple-A Iowa, along with 1 start at Tennessee. Mateo was promoted to the majors in August, and it did not go well. He went 0-1 with a 5.82 ERA, 26 K's, 9 walks, 20 hits allowed (8.3 H/9), 6 homers allowed (2.5 HR/9) and 1 hold in 21 relief appearances and 21.2 IP. He actually allowed just a .275 BAbip despite a 21% LD%. But that was counteracted by a 55% IP%. Really, the reason Mateo struggled was homers allowed, but of course he was unlucky in allowing 2.5 homers per 9 innings. He allowed an unbelievable 17.6% HR/FB. Wow. He also allowed a 9.7% XBH%. When everything evens out, Mateo should be fine and be able to post a low-3.00's ERA at the major league level. In addition to what I'm saying, Mateo has a 1.80 ERA in 5 spring training relief appearances and 5 IP, so he has a very strong case for making the roster. Marcos Mateo has the potential to be a pretty good reliever for the Cubs if he makes the team.
Russell spent almost all of 2010 on the big league roster for the Cubs, and it did not go well. The 25 year old lefty went 1-1 in '10 with a 4.96 ERA, 42 K's, 11 walks, 55 hits allowed (10.1 H/9), 11 homers allowed (2.0 HR/9), and 6 holds in 57 relief appearances and 49 IP. Russell allowed a .297 BAbip, allowing a 19% LD% and a 68% IP%, but he was unlucky in terms of LOB% and HR/FB. Russell had just a 60.4% LOB% and a 11.8% HR/FB. When everything evens out, Russell should be much better in 2011. Unfortunately for Russell, he's getting killed so far in spring training, considering he has a 7.56 ERA in 3 relief appearances and 1 start. His hopes for the Cubs roster are hanging by a thread. He better start improving a lot in the latter part of spring training if he wants to make the team and have a chance to atone for his bad 2010. But even if he doesn't make the team out of spring training, we will see him in the majors at some point in 2011. Russell might be bound to rebound in 2011 when his luck evens out, but because of his awful performance so far this spring, he may not get the chance, at least to begin the year.
Another lefty, 26 year old Scott Maine, had a very nice season in the minors in 2011, going 4-2 with a 3.14 ERA, 62 K's, 25 K's, 45 hits allowed (7.1 H/9), 5 homers allowed (0.8 HR/9), and 10 saves in 45 relief appearances and 57.1 IP. He was then promoted to the majors, and he continued to pitch well, going 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 11 K's, 5 walks, 9 hits allowed (6.2 H/9), 1 homer allowed (0.7 HR/9), and 3 holds in 13 relief appearances and 13 IP. He didn't appear in too many pressure situations, having just a .5 aLI, but he actually allowed a .000 BA against him in the at-bats against him in high leverage and medium leverage situations. Overall in the majors in '10, Maine allowed just a .216 BAbip, even though he allowed an 18% LD% and a 69% IP%. But, Maine allowed a great 55.3% GB%. Maine was lucky in terms of BAbip, but not exceedingly lucky. Maine was also lucky in terms of LOB%, having a pretty high 79.4% LOB%. His HR/FB was around neutral at 6.7%. When everything evens out, Maine will certainly have a higher ERA in '10, but he should still post an ERA under 3.00 (consider that his ERA would have to go up .92 to get to 3.00). Maine has allowed a 6.00 ERA in 6 relief appearances and 6 IP, but he still has a good chance of making the Cubs' roster. Scott Maine has a chance to be a good reliever for the Cubs in 2011 if he can make the team.
Samardzija, the 26 year old right-hander and ex. Notre Dame wide receiver, had a very disappointing season in '10. At Triple-A Iowa, Samardzija was just decent, going 11-3 with a 4.37 ERA, 102 K's, 67 walks, 86 hits allowed (7.0 H/9), and 9 homers allowed (0.7 HR/9) in 20 starts, 15 relief appearances, and 111.1 IP. In 7 major league games, 3 of which were starts, Samardzija was terrible, posting an 8.38 ERA, and walking 20 while striking out just 9. Samardzija was a promising young reliever after posting a 2.28 ERA in 26 major league relief appearances in '08, but since then, Samardzija has a 7.83 ERA in 22 relief appearances and 5 starts in the majors. What happened? While his BAbip, LD%, and IP% have varied, his HR/FB, LOB%, and GB% have gone in the wrong directions. His HR/FB was actually 0.0 in '08, but has been 10.9% since then. His LOB% was 70% in '08, but went down to 63.2% in '09 and just 56.2% in '10. His GB% went down from 45.7% to 41.2% to just 30.7% in '10. These trends are certainly not encouraging. Will Samardzija ever be an effective big league reliever? The Cubs certainly hope so, but it's certainly no sure thing. Samardzija has a 6.43 ERA in 7 spring training relief appearances and 7 IP, so it's unlikely that he'll make the Cubs out of spring training. He better get back on track at Triple-A Iowa in '11. Jeff Samardzija is unlikely to help the Cubs out of the bullpen in 2011.
Coleman, a 23 year old righty, had a pretty good season as as starter at High-A Iowa in '10, going 10-7 with a 4.07 ERA, 59 K's, and 35 walks in 20 starts and 117.1 IP. He allowed 106 hits, an 8.1 H/9, and 10 homers, a 0.8 HR/9. Coleman's problem is that he doesn't strike anybody out. He had just a 4.5 K/9 in 2010 and owns just a 5.2 K/9 for his career. Coleman also appeared in 12 major league games, 8 of which were starting, going 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA, 27 K's, and 25 walks in 57 IP. He actually had a 3.33 ERA as a starter compared to an 8.64 ERA as a reliever, although is K/9 went up from 4.1 as a starter to 5.4 as a reliever. Coleman is a decent starter, but the Cubs don't have any room in their rotation for Coleman and he doesn't profile well in the bullpen. Coleman has a 6.43 ERA in 3 relief appearances and 7 IP so far in spring training. Casey Coleman is going to be a 5th starter for the Cubs or some other major league team some day, but that's probably not going to happen in 2011.
I would guess that Mateo and Main make the Cubs' bullpen out of spring training.
Closer:
28 year old hard-throwing right-hander Carlos Marmol had his first great season as a closer in '10, going 2-3 with a 2.55 ERA, 138 K's (an unbelievable 16.0 K/9), 52 walks (6.0 BB/9), 40 hits allowed (just a 4.6 H/9), just 1 homer allowed (0.1 HR/9), and 38 saves (5 blown saves) in 77 relief appearances and 77.2 IP. Is Marmol due for an encore in 2011? You would think that because Marmol allowed just a 4.6 H/9, he was extremely lucky in terms of BAbip. He was not at all, allowing a .293 BAbip, the highest of his career. Marmol did allow a league-average 19% LD%, but he allowed just a 40% IP% that easily canceled that out. Marmol was just plain incredible in terms of allowing so few hits. However, Marmol was lucky in allowing just 1 homer, having a 1.4% HR/FB. He also allowed just a 3.3% XBH%. But, Marmol wasn't necessarily that lucky. He had a 2.5% HR/FB and a 4.5% XBH% in 2009. Marmol just did not allow very much hard contact. Marmol might not be quite as good in 2011, but he should still have a great year and post an ERA under 2.90 once again, maybe even reaching 40 saves. Unless Marmol melts down and starts walking every single batter (like he did in 2009, allowing a 7.9 BB/9), Marmol will have another great year in 2011. Carlos Marmol is a great closer for the Cubs.
Overview:
The Cubs will be a good team in 2011. They have a good lineup, although their defense isn't great. The top three in their rotation are very good, and the back end is pretty good as well. Their bullpen is solid, with Marmol slamming the door. The Cubs are a good team, not a great team, but they still have a chance to win the NL Central or the NL Wild Card. Will they make the playoffs? Again, they have a chance, but it certainly won't be easy.
2010 Record: 75-87
Prediction: 87-75, 3rd in NL Central
The Cubs will make the playoffs if...Soriano and Ramirez show some flashes of their former glory and have greats years, Dempster has another very good year, Garza steps up for his new team, Zambrano is a dependable starter for the entire season, Wood has another very good year as a setup man, Marmol has an even better year as a closer.
Catcher:
The 2008 NL Rookie of the Year, 28 year old catcher Geovany Soto, finally came back to have a good season after a sophomore slump. Soto hit .280 with 18 doubles, 17 homers, 53 RBI, and a .393 OBP in 105 games. He was on the 15-day DL two separate times with a right shoulder injury, so you have to hope he can stay healthier because obviously, he's a better option than any of the Cubs' backup catchers. But, why did Soto go from a .285 BA in 2008 to a .218 BA in 2009 back up to a .280 BA in '10? It's nice for Soto and the Cubs that it happened, but why did it happen? What happened was his BAbip (batting average on balls in play) went from .332 in '08 to .246 in '09, back up to a .324 BAbip in '10. (The league average is .300.) But, why did that happen? Basically, what happened was that Soto had such an awful season in 2009 that it couldn't be predicted by any regular means. His LD% (line drive percentage) was an above-average 21% in his rookie season, but fell to just 16% in 2009 (the league average is 19%). In 2010, Soto's LD% came back with a vengeance, spiking all the way up to 25%. When Soto got a pitch to hit in 2010, he didn't often miss. But, that spike in LD% coincided with a decrease in IP% (in-play percentage). Soto's IP% was 63% in 2008, and actually went up to 64% in 2009. Soto traded some hard hits for more contact in 2009, and needless to say it didn't work out. In 2010, Soto traded quite a bit of contact for his high LD%, posting just a 58% IP%. (Keep in mind that Soto was putting the ball in play at a below-average rate from the beginning. The league average for IP% is 69%.) But, since that 58% IP% came along with the highest walk rate of his career (16.0% of his plate appearances compared to 12.9% in '09 and 11.0% in '08), it was certainly OK. How much can you complain about a .280 BA and a .393 OBP? In terms of his 17 homers in '10 though, he was very lucky to hit that many, needing a 12.1% HR/FB (percentage of balls hit to the outfield that went for homers). When he hit 23 homers in 2008, he had a 10.6% HR/FB. His HR/FB returned to right around neutral in 2009, falling to just 7.9%. That decline in 2009 had much more to do with his lack of hard contact rather than anythign else. Maybe his HR/FB will fall back down to around 10% in 2011, but if Soto stays healthy, he'll be OK. But, there's one more thing that could possibly be an issue: aLI (average leverage index- the average amount of pressure a player is under per game; 1.0 is average). In 2008, Soto primarily batted 5th, 6th, and 7th (but also occasionally 8th), and he was under a lot of pressure on the playoff-bound Cubs, having a 1.05 aLI. In 2009, Soto, despite his poor performance, batted primarily 5th, 6th, and 7th (but only almost never 8th), and had a 1.10 aLI. But in 2010, Soto batted primarily 7th and 8th, and had easily the lowest aLI of his career, .96. Soto took advantage of pitchers thinking that he wasn't such a good hitter anymore since he was batting in the latter part of the lineup, and was able to get some nice hits. We'll have to see where in the lineup Soto bats in '10, and if he bats higher up, he'll have to live up to the pressure. Soto is a decent defender, considering he posted a .995 Fld% at catcher in '10, but he had just a 22% CS%. He did allow only 2 passed balls. Because of his low CS%, Soto is just a decent defensive catcher. Overall, Geovany Soto was a good player in '10. He'll be a good player again in '11 as long as he can stay healthy, keep his LD% up, and survive higher-leverage situations if he's moved up in the lineup.
Soto will be backed up by Koyie Hill, who has been his regular replacement at catcher the past 2 seasons when he has suffered from injury or poor performance. Luckily for Soto, Hill was never able to prove himself as even a decent player when he has received starts. Hill, a 32 year old that came up in the Dodgers organization, hit just .214 in '10 with 13 doubles, 1 homer, 17 RBI, and just a .254 OBP in 77 games. It's not like Hill was very unlucky or something along those lines in '10- he had a .292 BAbip. Hill did have a 21% LD% and a 67% IP%, but he had a terrible 50.4% GB% (ground ball percentage). You could compare that to Soto's 36.0% GB% in 2010. Hill is an awful hitter, but most backup catchers earn their money defensively anyway. In 2010 though, Hill was awful defensively, posting a league average .992 Fld% with just an 18% CS% and 4 passed balls. Hill did have a .995 Fld% with a 40% CS% and just 2 passed balls in 2009, but that doesn't take away from how awful Hill was defensively in '10. Hill better rebound defensively, because his offense certainly won't (he has a career .215 BA in 256 career major league games). Hill needs a rebound defensively just to be an average big league backup, considering how bad of a hitter he is. Koyie Hill can give Soto an off-day every week or two, but if Soto gets hurt and he's forced to step in as the starter, the Cubs are in deep trouble.
First base:
From 2007 to 2010 with the Tampa Bay Rays, Carlos Pena's BA went down from .282 in '07 all the way down to .196 in '10. Can he rebound offensively with the Cubs? Pena, who will turn 33 in May, hit just .196 in '10 with 18 doubles, 28 homers, 84 RBI, and a .325 OBP in 144 games. Why did he hit just .196? He had just a .222 BAbip. But why did he have just a .222 BAbip? Turns out that Pena had the same problem in '10 that Soto had in '10- trading some hard hits for more contact. From 2007 to 2009, Pena had a 22% LD% and just a 49% IP%. In 2010, he had just a 17% LD%, but a 52% IP%. It's sort of ironic that Pena had his best IP% in a full season since 2004 with the Tigers in the year in which he posted the worse BA of his career. Pena had a 44.9% GB% in 2010. He had just a 29.0% GB% in 2009. Will Pena be able to get his BA back to at least back to the .227 BA that he had in '09 this season? If he wants to be a good hitter again, Pena has to hit more line drives. When he's at the plate, he can't worry about contact- he has to wait for his pitch and hit it well when he gets it. Everybody hates strikeouts, but Cubs fans while have to deal with Pena striking out around 160 times in 2011. If Pena can just get back to his approach from '07 to '09, he'll go down as a great signing for the Cubs. (In case you were wondering, Pena's 18.1% HR/FB in '10 was a bit below his 20.0% HR/FB the past 3 seasons, but Pena will definitely rebound in that regard. Defensively, it's hard to complain about Pena. He posted an above average .995 Fld% in '10 with above-average range (8.58 range factor per game [RF/G] compared to the league average of 7.41), but somehow he had a -2.5 UZR (don't ask me to explain ultimate zone rating). No matter what UZR says, it's hard to consider Pena a below-average defender. But, as long as Pena rebounds offensively, it doesn't matter too much exactly how good he does defensively. Carlos Pena needs to get back to hitting the ball hard in 2010, even if it costs him some amount of contact, and if he does, he'll end up being a great signing for the Cubs.
Pena will be backed up by the Cubs' primary infield backup, Jeff Baker, who is a natural second baseman, but who has experience at all 4 corner positions (although he'll primarily play just second base, first base, and third base). Baker, who will turn 30 in June, hit .272 in '10 with 13 doubles, 4 homers, 21 RBI, and a .326 OBP in 79 games. He had a .340 BAbip, but his career BAbip is .334, so it really wasn't that high (he has a 20% career LD%). Defensively, Baker posted just a .903 Fld% at third base, but was perfect in 26 games at second base while showing outstanding range (5.47 RF/9 compared to the 4.78 league average at second base), and he was also perfect in 4 games at first base and 4 in the outfield. For his career, Baker has a great .989 Fld% at second base with great range, a .939 Fld% at third base with above-average range, a .990 Fld% at first base with good range, and a .979 Fld% in 37 games in the outfield between left field and right field, showing poor range. Baker is a decent hitter, and he's very good defensively at second while being serviceable at the 4 corner positions. Jeff Baker is a good backup for the Cubs.
Second base:
25 year old Blake DeWitt, acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline in the Ted Lilly deal, hit .261 between the Dodgers and Cubs in '10 with 24 doubles, 5 homers, 52 RBI, 5 triples, and a .336 OBP in 135 games. DeWitt had a .313 BAbip, so he wasn't very lucky, but still, he hit just .261 with no other significant talents. He did have a 21% LD% and a 71% IP%, but no matter how many positive stats I say, DeWitt still hit .261. The one piece of goods news for the Cubs was that DeWitt had just a 3.2% HR/FB in 2010. When he had a closer-to-average 6.4 HR/FB in 2008, he hit 9 homers. DeWitt is not a good player, but maybe he would have at least some amount of value if he could hit double-digit homers. Defensively, DeWitt posted a below-average .979 Fld% at second base, although he did show slightly above-average range (4.83 RF/9 compared to the league average of 4.78). DeWitt was once an outstanding third baseman for the Dodgers, posting a great .969 Fld% at third base in 2008 (compared to the league average of .955) with a 3.10 RF/9 that was tops among NL third basemen. But, with Aramis Ramirez entrenched at third, DeWitt is stuck at second. DeWitt will be backed up by Jeff Baker, who could possibly take away significant playing time from DeWitt if his struggles continue. Blake DeWitt is a decent player at best for the Cubs.
Third base:
Aramis Ramirez used to be when of the best players in baseball. In 2006, Ramirez had arguably the best season of his career, hitting .291 with 38 doubles, a career-high 38 homers, a career-high 119 RBI, 93 runs, and a .352 OBP in 157 games. After the season, the Cubs re-signed Ramirez to a 5 year, 72 million dollar contract with a 16 million option for the 6th year. The first couple of seasons in the contract went well, with Ramirez hitting .310 with 26 homers and 101 RBI in '07, and .289 with 27 homers and 111 RBI in '08. But in '09, everything went wrong for Ramirez. He missed 11 games early in the season with a couple of minor injuries, but on May 9th, he suffered a dislocated left shoulder that sidelined him until July 6th. Ramirez also missed 14 days the rest of the year with various other injuries. Ramirez appeared in just 82 games, hitting .317 with 15 homers and 65 RBI. At least when he was healthy, he did well. But in 2010, while Ramirez was mostly healthy, the level of performance was just not there. Ramirez hit .241 with 21 doubles, 25 homers, 83 RBI, and just a .294 OBP in 124 games. Injuries have made Ramirez into a shadow over his former self. Ramirez had just a .245 BAbip in '10, compared to his .287 career BAbip. His low BAbip was because of just a 16% LD%, the lowest of his career. And unlike Soto and Pena, it didn't come with an increase in IP%. He had a 70% IP%, the third-lowest of his career. His career IP% is 73% and he had a 75% IP%. In my opinion and in the opinion of many others, there's no way Ramirez ever gets back to being a star. If everything goes right in 2011, maybe Ramirez will stay healthy and hit .280 with 25 homers and drive in 100 runs. But, chances are he'll only play in around 100 games hit around .250, hit maybe 17 homers and drive in 70 runs. Maybe even that's optimistic. Defensively, Ramirez posted just a .939 Fld% at third base in '10 with just a 2.21 RF/G compared to the league average of 2.54. Ramirez has always been a below-average defender (.948 career Fld%, .251 RF/G), but in 2010, he took that to new levels. Ramirez will be backed up by Baker. 2011 is Ramirez's contract year. It's unfortunate that in all likelihood, Ramirez will be fighting through an injury-riddled season and be signing a minor league contract with someone next offseason even though he'll be just 33 years old.
Shortstop:
Young shortstop Starlin Castro had a very good rookie year in '10, hitting .300 with 31 doubles, 3 homers, 41 RBI, 5 triples, 10 stolen bases, and a .347 OBP in 125 games. Castro, who will turn 21 on March 24th, was the the youngest player in the NL but still ranked 10th in the league in BA. Castro had a .346 BAbip in '10, but that was because of a 20% LD% and a great 78% IP%. Wait a second- he had a 51.3% GB%. How did he manage to hit .300 with such a high ground ball rate? Was he just really lucky in '10? Well, although you may not have noticed it because of Castro's low amount of stolen bases, but he's very fast. He stole 28 bases in his only full minor league season. Castro was among the league leaders in the NL with 25 infield hits. As long as Castro can keep beating out those infield hits, he'll be fine. Defensively however, Castro needs work. He posted just a .950 Fld% at SS compared to the league average of .972, although he did post slightly above-average range (4.33 RF/G compared to the league average of 4.31). He made the second-most errors in the NL (behind Nats shortstop Ian Desmond). The Cubs have to hope that Castro's poor range in 2010 was just an aberration. After all, he did have a 4.74 RF/G at shortstop in the minors. Hopefully the Cubs coaching staff can fix Castro's defensive problems. Castro is a good player overall for the Cubs, but while he looks to improve offensively in 2011, his poor defense could hold him back.
Castro will be backed up by Darwin Barney. Barney, a 25 year old middle infielder, hit .241 in 30 games for the Cubs with 4 doubles, no homers, 2 RBI, and a .294 OBP. Barney posted a .976 Fld% between shortstop, second base, and third base, with both of his errors coming at second base. At Triple-A Iowa, Barney hit .299 with 24 doubles, 2 homers, 49 RBI, 4 triples, 72 runs, 11 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 114 games. He posted a .970 Fld% at shortstop in the minors (exactly the league average). Barney posted just a 4.14 RF/G compared to the 4.27 RF/G that was the NL's league average at shortstop. You have to hope that his poor range at second was somewhat of a fluke, especially considering he owns a 4.32 RF/G in the minors. Barney was perfect in 2 games at second base. Darwin Barney doesn't seem like a great backup, considering his not a great hitter and he's only decent defensively, but at least he's a better defensive shortstop than Baker, and he'll be good enough as a backup for the Cubs.
Left field:
Alfonso Soriano, now 35 years old, had a bounce-back year of sorts in '10, hitting .258 with 40 doubles (his most since 2007), 24 homers, 79 RBI, and a .322 OBP in 147 games (his most since 2006). Soriano was healthy in 2011, missing just 6 games due to injury, and it paid off. It's unfortunate for him that he's nothing compared to the player he used to be. Remember when Soriano used to be a player that had a chance to go 40-40 every single year? Soriano went 39-41 in 2002, 38-35 in 2003, 36-30 in 2005, and then finally 46-41 in 2006. He was just 24-5 in 2010. Soriano had a .295 BAbip with an 18%, so there's no reason to think his BA will ever climb back up to his .277 career average again. Soriano had a 10.4% HR/FB in '10, a bit short of his 11.7% career HR/FB, so maybe Soriano's best-case scenario in 2011 has him hitting 30 homers. Soriano is still a decent hitter, but he won't be anywhere near the player he's supposed to be based on his contract (which still has 4 years and 72 million dollars remaining). Defensively, Soriano was pretty awful, posting just a .968 Fld% compared to the league average of .985 for left fielders, with poor range (1.70 RF/9 ocmpared to the league average of 2.17). It's sad that Alfonso Soriano, who used to be one of the best players in baseball, is now a decent player at best.
Soriano will be backed up by Tyler Colvin and either Reed Johnson or Fernando Perez, who are competing for the Cubs 5th outfielder job. Colvin, OK now after the broken bat incident, had a nice rookie season, hitting .254 with 18 doubles, 20 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 6 stolen bases, and a .316 OBP in 135 games. The 26 year old outfielder had a .296 BAbip in '10 despite a 17% LD% and a 61% IP%, so he may never hit too much better than he did in '10. He also had an astronomical 15.6% HR/FB, so he might have hit homers at a lesser rate in coming years (not that he won't ever hit 20 homers- he received just 394 plate appearances in 2010). It's clear that Colvin just isn't that good of a player. Defensively, Colvin is pretty awful, considering he posted a .967 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions in '10 with poor range in left field and center field. He posted just a .952 Fld% in right field. Colvin seems like he'll be best suited in a backup role unless he makes huge improvements both offensively and defensively. Johnson, back with the Cubs after playing for the LA Dodgers in 2010, hit .262 in '10 with 11 doubles, 2 homers, 15 RBI, and a .291 OBP in 102 games. He did miss most of August with back spasms. He was actually perfect defensively in the outfield in '10 and even showed above-average range in left field. He's a solid backup as long as he stays healthy. Perez, acquired in the Matt Garza trade, spent all of 2010 at the Rays' Triple-A Durham, hitting just .223 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, 32 RBI, 24 stolen bases, and a .280 OBP in 116 games. Perez, who will turn 28 in April, hit .288 with 43 stolen bases at Durham in 2008, but then missed almost all of '09 after undergoing surgery for a dislocated wrist, playing in just 17 games in the minors and 18 in the majors. Maybe he was still suffering after-effects in '10.That must be the reason, especially considering Perez had a .287 BAbip. Defensively, Perez owns a .978 career Fld% in the outfield overall with solid range, so he's a decent player. In 37 career major league games (coming '07 and '08), he has not made a single error, so that's a good sign. Nevertheless, it doesn't appear that Perez is better than Johnson at all, so he'll probably be stuck in the minors to begin the year. The Cubs have solid depth behind Soriano.
Centerfield:
After signing with the Cubs in '10 after a career-year with the Texas Rangers, there was certainly some amount of doubt that Marlon Byrd would keep up his solid production, especially because not only was he leaving Arlington, but also he was turning 32. While maybe he didn't have as good year overall in '10, he certainly lived up to the billing, hitting .293 with 39 doubles, 12 homers, 66 RBI, 84 runs, and a .346 OBP in 152 games. Byrd had a .335 BAbip to help bring his BA up to .293 from .283 in '10. His LD% remained the same at 19% from '09 to '10, but the reason his BAbip went up from .308 to .335 was because his IF/FB (percentage of fly balls in the infield [i.e. percentage of fly balls that were popups]) shot down from 13% to 5%. Byrd improved his IP% from 73% in '09 to 75% in '10. Basically what happened was that Byrd made more contact in '10 than in '09 and more solid contact because although his LD% didn't increase, his IF/FB went down quite a bit. But, that increase in contact caused Byrd's HR/FB to go down from 8.5% to 5.6% from '09 to '10. That's why he went from 20 homers in '09 to 12 homers in '10. Still, Byrd is definitely a solid offensive player. Byrd is more well known for his stellar defense, and 2010 was no difference as he posted an above-average .992 Fld% in centerfield with above average range (2.69 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.59). He also had 6 outfield assists.Byrd is a very good player on both sides of the ball for the Cubs. Byrd will be backed up by Johnson or Perez. Marlon Byrd's stellar play has made the Cubs look good for signing him to a 3-year contract.
Right field:
2011 is the last year of Kosuke Fukudome's contract. He better produce offensively if he wants to stay in the US. Fukudome, who will turn 34 in April, hit .263 in '10 with 20 doubles, 13 homers, just 44 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 130 games. How he couldn't manage to drive in 50 runs is beyond me. He actually had his worst BAbip in the States, just .287, but still posted his best BA. His 17% LD% was also his lowest in the US, and his 11% IF/FB was the highest, so pretty much what happened was everything evened out for Fukudome and he proved to be a decent player. However, his 9.6% HR/FB was easily the highest of his career. Fukudome proved in '10 that he's at least an average major leaguer offensively. Defensively, Fukudome was rock-solid, posting a significantly above-average .995 Fld% with average range (2.14 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.17). He's a good player. He'll be backed up by Colvin and Johnson or Perez. Fukudome needs one more solid season to prove that he belongs on a major league team (if he doesn't want to return to Japan). He should be able manage that in 2011.
Starting rotation:
Ryan Dempster, who will turn 34 in May, didn't do anything besides put up another solid season in 2010, going 15-12 with a 3.85 ERA and 208 K's compared to 86 walks allowed in 34 starts and 215.1 IP. He allowed 198 hits, 8.3 per 9 innings, and 25 homers, a 1.0 HR/9. Dempster was actually pretty unlucky in 2011, allowing a .298 BAbip despite just a 14% LD%. He also allowed a good 47.4% GB%. Dempster only real problem, homers allowed (which led to his 3.99 FIP [fielding independent equivalent of ERA]), was actually a fluke, considering he allowed a 9.2% HR/FB compared to his career HR/FB to 7.8%. Dempster is really a good pitcher. Dempster is even a solid hitting pitcher. He did hit just .136 with 2 RBI, but he had 16 sac bunts. Ryan Dempster is a solid ace and deserves to start Opening Day for the Cubs.
Lining up as the Cubs' second starter in the rotation is 27 year old right-hander Matt Garza, acquired this offseason in the big trade with the Rays. Garza went 15-10 in '10 with a 3.91 ERA and 150 K's compared to 63 walks in 32 starts, 1 relief appearances and 204.2 IP. Garza alllowed 193 hits, an 8.5 H/9, and 28 homers, a bad 1.2 HR/9. It certainly wasn't a great performance by Garza, but it was his second-best ERA for a full season behind his 3.70 ERA in 2008. However, Garza posted his worst GB% in a season since 2006 (35.8%), and his worse FIP since '06 as well (4.42). Garza allowed a .273, certainly below the league average, but exactly at his average for the past 3 seasons. Could it be that Garza was just really lucky with the Rays? Garza allowed that .273 BAbip despite allowing a 20% LD%, a 69% IP%, and a 39% GB%. But, he did have an above-average 16% IF/FB. He also allowed just a 7.9% HR/FB during that time period. Also, you have to factor in that Garza is going from Tropicana Park, a pitcher's ballpark to Wrigley Field, which we all know is a hitter's park. It would seem that in switching between the two ballparks and factoring how, his ERA is going to start looking a lot more like his FIP's have been to the past 3 years (4.32). But, that would be if his BAbip actually returns to neutral. Considering Garza has posted a BAbip in the .270's for three consecutive years, will he be putting up those type of BAbip's for the foreseeable future? He better, or he'll be a huge disappointment for the Cubs.
Carlos Zambrano had a bizarre season in '10. He started the season in the rotation as the Cubs' ace, but after 4 starts in which he posted a 7.45 ERA, he was relegated to the bullpen. Zambrano posted a 4.15 ERA and 4 holds in 13 relief appearances between late April and late May. Zambrano then posted a 5.01 ERA in 5 starts after he returned to the rotation in June, but after that sub-par performance, the Cubs sent him down to the minor leagues for 4 relief appearances. But after he came back, he finally was himself again, he posted a 4.91 ERA in 3 relief appearances (primarily because he allowed a .500 BAbip) before he returned to the Cubs rotation once again. In 11 starts between August and September, going 8-0 with just a 1.41 ERA. At the end of it all, Zambrano actually had a good year, going 11-6 with a 3.33 ERA (his lowest since 2005), 117 K's, 69 walks, and 4 holds in 20 starts and 16 relief appearances. He allowed 119 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and just 7 homers, a 0.5 HR/9. He had a .309 BAbip, primarily because he allowed a 21% LD%, but he did have a 64% IP% and a 43.6% GB%. As long as he can stay consistently good, Zambrano will rise up to be the Cubs' ace once again. Considering that he's turning 30 in June and he has a vesting option in his contract if he finishes 1st or 2nd in the Cy Young voting this year, it would certainly be in his best interests and obviously the Cubs' if he can get back to being that great albeit crazy pitcher we all know him as. Good thing Zambrano is no slouch with the bat. Zambrano had another great hitting year for a pitcher in '10, hitting .231 with 1 homer, 6 RBI, and 2 sac bunts. It was a far cry from his two consecutive Silver Slugger seasons in '08 and '09 (in which he hit 4 homers each year), but it was still a good season for Zambrano. Carlos Zambrano is primed for a resurgence in 2011.
28 year old righty Randy Wells had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2010, but he still had a decent year, going just 8-14, but with a 4.26 ERA and 144 K's compared to 63 walks in 32 starts and 194.1 IP. He allowed 209 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.7 per 9, and 19 homers, a decent ratio of 0.9 per 9. Again, those are decent stats, but Wells went 12-10 with a 3.05 ERA, 104 K's, 46 walks, 165 hits allowed (9.0 H/9), and 14 homers allowed (0.8 HR/9) in 27 starts and 165.1 IP in his rookie year of 2009. What happened? Well, Wells allowed a .315 BAbip compared to a .292 BAbip his rookie year. His LD% climbed from 17% to 19%, but that should have been mostly canceled out because Wells IP% against him fell from 75% to 72%. His GB% also remained around the same, falling slightly from 47.9% to 46.9%. So what happened? His IF/FB and DP% (percentage of double plays out of opportunities) fell from 13% and 16% respectively to 9% and 7%. In addition, his LOB% dropped. LOB%, strand rate of base runners allowed, fell from 76.0% to 72.0%. When combine all those with Wells increase in HR/FB from 5.9% to 6.5%, that's why his ERA went up significantly. When everything evens out, hopefully Wells can get his ERA at least under 4.00 again. With the bat, Wells is a halfway-decent hitting pitcher, considering he hit .173 in '10 with 3 RBI and 9 sac bunts. Randy Wells is a pretty good pitcher for the Cubs.
Carlos Silva and Andrew Cashner are competing for the 5th slot in the Cubs rotation.
Silva had a decent year in 2010 despite missing almost all of August with cardiac ablation surgery, going 10-6 for the Cubs with 80 K's (a career high 6.4 K/9), and just 24 walks in 21 starts and 113 IP. He allowed 120 hits, a 9.6 H/9, and 11 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. Silva, who will turn 31 in late April did allow a .309 BAbip despite an 18% LD% and a 48.2% GB%. However, Silva did allow a 74% IP%. One potential problem with Silva going forward is HR/FB- he's bound to allow a few more homers in 2011 considering he allowed a 6.5% HR/FB in '10. Still, Silva is a decent pitcher overall and a perfectly fine 5th starter. But, what's worrying the Cubs and their fans has been Silva's performance so far this spring. Silva has an awful 15.88 ERA in 11.1 spring training innings, allowing 4 home runs. That's what has given Andrew Cashner an opportunity.
Cashner, a 24 year old right-hander, began 2010 so well between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa, going 6-1 with a 2.05 ERA in 9 starts and 2 relief appearances that he was quickly promoted to the major league club. With the Cubs, Cashner went 2-6 with a 4.80 ERA, 50 K's, 30 walks, and 16 holds in 53 relief appearances and 54.1 IP. Other than a stretch from July 27th to August 23rd in which Cashner was the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, allowing a .515 BAbip, Cashner did well, posting a 2.42 ERA with a .243 BAbip before that terrible stretch and a 1.53 ERA with a .279 BAbip after it. If he remains in the bullpen in 2011, Cashner should be able to piece it all together and have a very good season. But how would Cashner do in the rotation? In his minor league career, Cashner appeared in 43 games, 39 of which were starts, and he went 10-7 with a 2.79 ERA, 153 K's, 80 walks, 139 hits allowed (7.1 H/9), and 3 homers (a minuscule 0.2 HR/9) in 177.1 IP. He did have a .271 BAbip (there's no website that lists how many sac flies Cashner allowed in the minors, so that .271 number could be a few points off), so he was somewhat lucky. But at Double-A, where Cashner spent the most time, he had a 3.15 ERA, although he did have a .253 BAbip. Looking at that, Cashner maybe would have a high-3.00's ERA if he was starter in the majors (based on his BAbip evening out and the level switch). That would be better than Silva. Cashner is pitching to a High-3.00's ERA so far in spring training, posting a 3.97 ERA in 11.1 IP. Cashner will be given a long look for the 5th starter job, and if he does win the job, Silva will surely be traded. If Silva is given the nod, Cashner will have a spot in the bullpen.
Bullpen:
Kerry Wood always wanted to come back. The 33 year old right-hander turn down more lucrative offers from several teams to come back to the Cubs for the low price of just 1.5 million dollars on a 1-year contract. Sounds like a bit of a bargain for the Cubs. Wood began 2010 the Indians, but during camp, he suffered a shoulder strain and was out until May. From May until mid-July, Wood really struggled, appearing in 23 games saving 8 of 11 games, and posting a 6.30 ERA before he re-aggravated his shoulder strain and was put on the DL again. Wood didn't go off the DL until July 31st, when he was traded to the Yankees for two players to be named later. Once he arrived in New York, everything changed. Wood was healthy and was a dominant force in the Yankee bullpen, going 2-0 with 9 holds and just a 0.69 ERA in 24 relief appearances. Kerry Wood, the dominant pitcher, was back, albeit as a setup man. He'll play the same role in 2011, setting up Carlos Marmol. Overall in 2010, Wood went 3-4 with a 3.13 ERA, 49 K's, 29 walks, 35 hits allowed (6.8 H/9), 4 homers allowed (0.8 HR/.9), 10 holds, and 8 saves in 47 relief appearances and 46 IP. How will he do in 2011? Overall in 2010, batters had a .272 BAbip against Wood. He allowed a league average 19% LD% and a below-average 39% GB%, but the reason that Wood was so good was that he allowed just a 57% IP%. That 57% IP% goes right along with his 56% career IP%. That's one of the reasons why Wood has been a great pitcher in his career, at least for short stretches (with another reason being his 10.4 career K/9). Wood was somewhat lucky another regard in '10- HR/FB. He had a 6.3% HR/FB in '10 compared to his 8.6% career HR/FB. But the real potential problem for Wood in 2011 revolves around his LOB%. Wood allowed an extremely high 5.7 BB/9 in '10. How did he managed a low-3.00's ERA overall in '10 despite that high walk rate? An 81.4% LOB%. Wood's career LOB% is 76.3%. Despite all this, when everything evens out, Wood could have as good a year or better in 2011 when everything evens out. Wood was not anywhere near as bad as his stint in Cleveland in 2010 or as good as his stint with the Yankees. He obviously won't put up an ERA under 2.00 or anything, but he could certainly put up an ERA under 3.00. The worst-case scenario (unless he gets hurt) is Wood putting up his 3.45 career ERA as a reliever. While the Cubs would obviously want Wood to have a great year, whether he has an ERA under 3.00 or over 3.40, he'll be an effective setup man to help bridge the gap between the starters and Carlos Marmol. Kerry Wood certainly won't put up the 0.69 ERA that he had with the Yankees last season in 2011, but as long as he stays healthy, he'll be a good reliever for the Cubs.
28 year old lefty Sean Marshall had an outstanding year for the Cubs in 2010, going 7-5 with a 2.65 ERA, 90 K's, just 25 walks, 58 hits allowed (7.0 H/9), 3 homers allowed (0.4 HR/9), 22 holds, and 1 save in 80 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Marshall did this all while allowing a .297 BAbip. Marshall actually allowed a 23% LD%, but he had a great 52.2% GB% and he allowed a good 60% IP%. He also allowed a 74.3% LOB% that wasn't too far off from Marshall's career average of 72.1%. But, Marshall was extremely lucky in terms of HR/FB. He allowed just a 3.6% HR/FB compared to his 8.6% career HR/FB. He also allowed just a 4.9% XBH% (extra base hit percentage among batters faced) compared to the league average of 7.9% and his career average of 7.5%. When everything evens out, Marshall will certainly have a higher ERA, probably over 3.00. Even so, he's a good reliever, but he won't be one of the best lefty relievers in the majors in '10. Sean Marshall is due for a bit of a let-down in 2011, but he'll still be a good reliever for the Cubs.
I was at Thomas Diamond's major league debut this past season, an August 3rd start at Wrigley Field against the Milwaukee Brewers. Diamond, who will turn 28 in April, had a decent debut, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings, striking out 10 and walking 3 in a 4-3 loss to the Brewers. But, in his next 2 starts, Diamond allowed 9 combined earned runs in 7 combined innings. Those were his final starts of the year. Diamond was then relegated to the bullpen, where he did do better, but better is a comparative word. He went 1-0 with a 5.63 ERA and no holds. Is there any hope for Diamond in 2011? Well, Diamond had a .378 BAbip in '10, but he did allow an awful 25% LD%. According to that, it would appear the Diamond is just destined to be an awful reliever. However, Diamond allowed just a 54% IP%, a 65.2% LOB%, and a 9.4% HR/FB. When those all even out, hopefully Diamond will at least be a decent reliever. The best-case scenario for Diamond in 2011 is probably his 2009 season in the minors at Double-A Frisco in the Texas Rangers organization. At Frisco in '09, Diamond went 1-3 with a 3.63 ERA, 50 K's, 37 walks, 43 hits allowed (8.7 H/9), 3 homers allowed (0.6 HR/9), and 1 save (I can't find how many holds he had) in 32 relief appearances and 44.2 IP. Hopefully his control would be better though if he did put up similar numbers to that in 2011- he had an awful 7.5 BB/9. In '08 at Frisco, Diamond had a 72.3% LOB% and a 4.52 FIP. You have to think Diamond will be much better in 2011, giving the Cubs some decent long-relief innings, putting up an ERA in the low-4.00's or high-3.00's. Thomas Diamond should be a decent long reliever for the Cubs in 2011.
There are 5 relievers competing for the final two spots on the Cubs' pitching staff: Marcos Mateo, Jim Russell, Scott Maine, Jeff Samardzija, and Casey Coleman.
Mateo, who will turn 27 in April, had a good season in the minors in '10, going 0-1 with a 3.15 ERA, 45 K's, just 7 walks, 35 hits allowed (9.2 H/9), 2 homers allowed (0.5 HR/9), and 4 saves in 25 relief appearances, 1 of which was at Rookie ball, 16 of which were at Double-A Tennessee, and 8 of which were at Triple-A Iowa, along with 1 start at Tennessee. Mateo was promoted to the majors in August, and it did not go well. He went 0-1 with a 5.82 ERA, 26 K's, 9 walks, 20 hits allowed (8.3 H/9), 6 homers allowed (2.5 HR/9) and 1 hold in 21 relief appearances and 21.2 IP. He actually allowed just a .275 BAbip despite a 21% LD%. But that was counteracted by a 55% IP%. Really, the reason Mateo struggled was homers allowed, but of course he was unlucky in allowing 2.5 homers per 9 innings. He allowed an unbelievable 17.6% HR/FB. Wow. He also allowed a 9.7% XBH%. When everything evens out, Mateo should be fine and be able to post a low-3.00's ERA at the major league level. In addition to what I'm saying, Mateo has a 1.80 ERA in 5 spring training relief appearances and 5 IP, so he has a very strong case for making the roster. Marcos Mateo has the potential to be a pretty good reliever for the Cubs if he makes the team.
Russell spent almost all of 2010 on the big league roster for the Cubs, and it did not go well. The 25 year old lefty went 1-1 in '10 with a 4.96 ERA, 42 K's, 11 walks, 55 hits allowed (10.1 H/9), 11 homers allowed (2.0 HR/9), and 6 holds in 57 relief appearances and 49 IP. Russell allowed a .297 BAbip, allowing a 19% LD% and a 68% IP%, but he was unlucky in terms of LOB% and HR/FB. Russell had just a 60.4% LOB% and a 11.8% HR/FB. When everything evens out, Russell should be much better in 2011. Unfortunately for Russell, he's getting killed so far in spring training, considering he has a 7.56 ERA in 3 relief appearances and 1 start. His hopes for the Cubs roster are hanging by a thread. He better start improving a lot in the latter part of spring training if he wants to make the team and have a chance to atone for his bad 2010. But even if he doesn't make the team out of spring training, we will see him in the majors at some point in 2011. Russell might be bound to rebound in 2011 when his luck evens out, but because of his awful performance so far this spring, he may not get the chance, at least to begin the year.
Another lefty, 26 year old Scott Maine, had a very nice season in the minors in 2011, going 4-2 with a 3.14 ERA, 62 K's, 25 K's, 45 hits allowed (7.1 H/9), 5 homers allowed (0.8 HR/9), and 10 saves in 45 relief appearances and 57.1 IP. He was then promoted to the majors, and he continued to pitch well, going 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 11 K's, 5 walks, 9 hits allowed (6.2 H/9), 1 homer allowed (0.7 HR/9), and 3 holds in 13 relief appearances and 13 IP. He didn't appear in too many pressure situations, having just a .5 aLI, but he actually allowed a .000 BA against him in the at-bats against him in high leverage and medium leverage situations. Overall in the majors in '10, Maine allowed just a .216 BAbip, even though he allowed an 18% LD% and a 69% IP%. But, Maine allowed a great 55.3% GB%. Maine was lucky in terms of BAbip, but not exceedingly lucky. Maine was also lucky in terms of LOB%, having a pretty high 79.4% LOB%. His HR/FB was around neutral at 6.7%. When everything evens out, Maine will certainly have a higher ERA in '10, but he should still post an ERA under 3.00 (consider that his ERA would have to go up .92 to get to 3.00). Maine has allowed a 6.00 ERA in 6 relief appearances and 6 IP, but he still has a good chance of making the Cubs' roster. Scott Maine has a chance to be a good reliever for the Cubs in 2011 if he can make the team.
Samardzija, the 26 year old right-hander and ex. Notre Dame wide receiver, had a very disappointing season in '10. At Triple-A Iowa, Samardzija was just decent, going 11-3 with a 4.37 ERA, 102 K's, 67 walks, 86 hits allowed (7.0 H/9), and 9 homers allowed (0.7 HR/9) in 20 starts, 15 relief appearances, and 111.1 IP. In 7 major league games, 3 of which were starts, Samardzija was terrible, posting an 8.38 ERA, and walking 20 while striking out just 9. Samardzija was a promising young reliever after posting a 2.28 ERA in 26 major league relief appearances in '08, but since then, Samardzija has a 7.83 ERA in 22 relief appearances and 5 starts in the majors. What happened? While his BAbip, LD%, and IP% have varied, his HR/FB, LOB%, and GB% have gone in the wrong directions. His HR/FB was actually 0.0 in '08, but has been 10.9% since then. His LOB% was 70% in '08, but went down to 63.2% in '09 and just 56.2% in '10. His GB% went down from 45.7% to 41.2% to just 30.7% in '10. These trends are certainly not encouraging. Will Samardzija ever be an effective big league reliever? The Cubs certainly hope so, but it's certainly no sure thing. Samardzija has a 6.43 ERA in 7 spring training relief appearances and 7 IP, so it's unlikely that he'll make the Cubs out of spring training. He better get back on track at Triple-A Iowa in '11. Jeff Samardzija is unlikely to help the Cubs out of the bullpen in 2011.
Coleman, a 23 year old righty, had a pretty good season as as starter at High-A Iowa in '10, going 10-7 with a 4.07 ERA, 59 K's, and 35 walks in 20 starts and 117.1 IP. He allowed 106 hits, an 8.1 H/9, and 10 homers, a 0.8 HR/9. Coleman's problem is that he doesn't strike anybody out. He had just a 4.5 K/9 in 2010 and owns just a 5.2 K/9 for his career. Coleman also appeared in 12 major league games, 8 of which were starting, going 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA, 27 K's, and 25 walks in 57 IP. He actually had a 3.33 ERA as a starter compared to an 8.64 ERA as a reliever, although is K/9 went up from 4.1 as a starter to 5.4 as a reliever. Coleman is a decent starter, but the Cubs don't have any room in their rotation for Coleman and he doesn't profile well in the bullpen. Coleman has a 6.43 ERA in 3 relief appearances and 7 IP so far in spring training. Casey Coleman is going to be a 5th starter for the Cubs or some other major league team some day, but that's probably not going to happen in 2011.
I would guess that Mateo and Main make the Cubs' bullpen out of spring training.
Closer:
28 year old hard-throwing right-hander Carlos Marmol had his first great season as a closer in '10, going 2-3 with a 2.55 ERA, 138 K's (an unbelievable 16.0 K/9), 52 walks (6.0 BB/9), 40 hits allowed (just a 4.6 H/9), just 1 homer allowed (0.1 HR/9), and 38 saves (5 blown saves) in 77 relief appearances and 77.2 IP. Is Marmol due for an encore in 2011? You would think that because Marmol allowed just a 4.6 H/9, he was extremely lucky in terms of BAbip. He was not at all, allowing a .293 BAbip, the highest of his career. Marmol did allow a league-average 19% LD%, but he allowed just a 40% IP% that easily canceled that out. Marmol was just plain incredible in terms of allowing so few hits. However, Marmol was lucky in allowing just 1 homer, having a 1.4% HR/FB. He also allowed just a 3.3% XBH%. But, Marmol wasn't necessarily that lucky. He had a 2.5% HR/FB and a 4.5% XBH% in 2009. Marmol just did not allow very much hard contact. Marmol might not be quite as good in 2011, but he should still have a great year and post an ERA under 2.90 once again, maybe even reaching 40 saves. Unless Marmol melts down and starts walking every single batter (like he did in 2009, allowing a 7.9 BB/9), Marmol will have another great year in 2011. Carlos Marmol is a great closer for the Cubs.
Overview:
The Cubs will be a good team in 2011. They have a good lineup, although their defense isn't great. The top three in their rotation are very good, and the back end is pretty good as well. Their bullpen is solid, with Marmol slamming the door. The Cubs are a good team, not a great team, but they still have a chance to win the NL Central or the NL Wild Card. Will they make the playoffs? Again, they have a chance, but it certainly won't be easy.
2010 Record: 75-87
Prediction: 87-75, 3rd in NL Central
The Cubs will make the playoffs if...Soriano and Ramirez show some flashes of their former glory and have greats years, Dempster has another very good year, Garza steps up for his new team, Zambrano is a dependable starter for the entire season, Wood has another very good year as a setup man, Marmol has an even better year as a closer.
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