Saturday, September 11, 2010

The roller coaster that is Cliff Lee's career

We all know Cliff Lee as that dominant starter with great control, but he certainly wasn't always like that. A 4th round pick by the Expos, Lee had a terrible pro debut in 2000, going 1-4 with a 5.24 ERA in 11 starts for Short Season-A Cape Fear. He did strike out 63 batters in 44.2 IP, but he also allowed 52 hits and 36 walks. But, in 2001, Lee dominated for High-A Jupiter. He went 6-7, but he posted a 2.79 ERA and 132 K's in 20 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 109.2 IP. He allowed just 78 hits and 46 walks and posted a great 2.8 K/H. After going 7-2 with a 3.23 ERA and 105 K's in 15 starts for Double-A Harrisburg, he was traded in the blockbuster deal that sent Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Lee Stevens to the Indians in exchange for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew. After struggling at Double-A Akron in 3 starts (5.40 ERA), he was promoted to Triple-A Buffalo and went 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 8 starts. He had a brief 'cup of coffee' in September for the Indians, going 0-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 2 starts. In '03, he went 7-1 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 starts at 3 different levels of the minors (including 6-1, 3.27 at Triple-A) before being promoted to the majors. He went 3-3 with a 3.61 ERA in 9 starts for Cleveland. In '04, his first full season in the big leagues, Lee certainly had his ups and downs. He went 14-8 with 161 K's in 33 starts and 179 innings, but he posted a 5.43 ERA and gave up 188 hits. He went 9-1 with a 3.77 ERA in the first half, but 5-7 with a 7.91 ERA in the second half. But, he closed the season well, winning his last 2 starts and posting a 2.03 ERA.

The great finish in '04 carried over into '05 for Lee. He had his first great season, going 18-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 143 K's in 33 starts and 202 IP. He allowed just 194 hits. He was much more consistent, going 9-4 with a 3.89 ERA in the first half and 9-1 with a 3.66 ERA in th, e second half. But, in '06, the consistency disappeared. He went 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA and 129 K's in 33 starts and 200.2 IP. He just allowed way too many hits (224). Lee went 8-6 with a 4.76 ERA in the first half before rebounding to go 6-5 with a 3.96 ERA in the 2nd half. In '07, Lee just plain collapsed. He went 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA and just 66 K's in 16 starts, 4 relief appearances and 97.1 IP. He allowed 112 hits, once again over a hit per inning. All 8 of his loses came on streaks of 4 straight loses in 4 consecutive starts. He was so bad that he was sent down for 10 starts in the minors and was left off Cleveland's postseason roster. Lee's strikeout total went down every year from '04 to '07. Although he proved he could be a good pitcher without striking too many batters out in '05, he allowed too many hits in '04, '06, and '07 to be successful without striking out batters at a higher rate.

Lee finally got the memo to give up less hits in '08. In doing so, he dominated, going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 170 K's in 31 starts and 223.1 IP on his way to the AL Cy Young Award. He allowed just 214 hits and 34 walks. Lee seemingly carried the success into '09, going just 7-9, but with a 3.14 ERA and 105 K's in 22 starts for the Indians before being traded to the Phillies. But, Lee allowed 165 hits in 152 IP. He just pitched with runners on, not allowing many of them to score. For the Phillies, he actually did worse. He went 7-4, but with a 3.39 ERA and 74 K's in 12 starts and 79.2 IP. But, he was dominant in the postseason. In 5 postseason starts, he went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA, including 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA against the Yankees in the World Series. He struck out 33 and walked only 6 in 40.1 IP. Still, after the season, he was traded to the Mariners shortly when the Phillies acquired Roy Halladay. In '09 for the Mariners, he regained his '08 form. After missing the first month of the season with an abdominal strain, he went 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 89 K's in 13 starts and 103.2 IP. But, the most amazing stat of all was that he walked just 6 batters. Six! His K/BB ratio was 14.83, which would be the best ever for a full season. (His current K/BB ratio of 13.42 between the Mariners and Rangers would still be the best ever by a wide margin.) He was then traded to the Rangers on July 9th, and he's been a complete disaster. He has gone just 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA and 72 K's in 11 starts and 80.2 IP. He has allowed 85 hits, over a hit per inning, but he has walked just 6 batters. But, the Rangers might have found the reason Lee has struggled: lower back inflamation. Lee got an injection and will try to get back on track against the Yankees tomorrow.

Lee has had good years and bad years, but at the end of the day he has a 100-60 career record with a 3.89 ERA. He has gone from demoted to the minor leagues to AL Cy Young and from a dominant pitcher for Seattle to a disaster for Texas. He has been good overall, but he has shown inconsistency. Would you want to commit to this guy for 5 years? The Yankees and the other bidders when Lee will be a free agent this offseason will have to make that decision.

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