Time for the annual MLB preview! Let's start in the NL West with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
If you're new to the drill, I'm going to look at each team position by position, going through the relevant stats, and then give an overview that team and state my prediction.
Catcher:
After a nice 2009 season, Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero was a disappointment offensively in '10, but mostly because he missed two months early in the season with a knee injury. He hit .266 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 43 RBI, and .332 OBP in 85 games after hitting .294 with 30 doubles, 16 homers, 59 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 128 games in '09. But, defensively, Montero is outstanding. He posted a .996 Fld% and a 31% CS% with just 6 passed balls. If Montero can rebound offensively, that would be great for Arizona, but if he can just stay healthy, hit around .270, and hit 12 or 13 homers, he would still be a valuable commodity for them. Backup Henry Blanco has just a .227 career BA, but he posted a .997 Fld% and a 50% CS% in '10 for the Mets. He's a fine backup. The D-backs have a great situation defensively at catcher, and they'll be happy if Montero can just stay healthy and hit a few homers, even if he doesn't rebound to his '09 levels.
First base:
Rookie 1st baseman Brandon Allen is poised to take over the first base job for the D-backs. Allen had cups of coffee in the majors in 2009 and 2010, hitting .221 with 5 homers and 20 RBI in 54 combined games. He posted a .993 Fld% at first base and a 1.000 Fld% in left field. At Triple-A in '10, he hit just .261, but with 18 doubles, 25 homers, 86 RBI, 14 stolen bases, and a .405 OBP in 107 games. He posted a .990 Fld% in 73 games at first base and a .981 Fld% in 33 games in left field. Allen won't be a great defensive first baseman, but the D-backs obviously hope he can hit well at the major league level. He did hit .267 in the majors in '10 compared to .202 in '09, so that's a good sign. They're not expecting him to completely replace Adam LaRoche, but they do want Allen to hit around .260 with power, maybe 18 or 19 home runs, and survive defensively. His backup at first base and possible starter if he fails will be ex-Yankee Juan Miranda. Miranda had a .253 BA with 4 homers, 14 RBI, and a .330 OBP in 46 games with the Yankees over the past three seasons. He didn't make any errors at first base. Miranda was rock-solid the past three seasons stuck behind Jason Giambi and Mark Teixeira at Triple-A, hitting .287 with 15 homers and 59 RBI per season and posting a .374 OBP. Again, keep in mind that he missed some time over those seasons because he was in the majors because of an injury. He has a .991 career Fld% at first base in the minors. Miranda will be 28 in late April, so even if he wins the starting job, he'll be just a stop-gap. The D-backs are certainly hoping that Allen can play well enough in spring training to win the starting job and play well enough during the season to keep it, but if not, they have a capable backup in Miranda.
Second base:
After a terrible '09 season with Atlanta in which he hit just .224, Kelly Johnson proved to be a great signing for the D-backs following the season. He had a breakout season in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doubles, 26 homers, 71 RBI, 5 triples, 93 runs, 13 stolen bases, and a .370 OBP in 154 games. His BA, homers, RBI, runs, stolen bases, and games played numbers in '10 were all career highs. He also was great defensively, posting an above-average .988 Fld%. Johnson is a very good player. His backups at second base with be middle-infield backups Ryan Roberts and Tony Abreu. Roberts has a .992 career Fld% at second base, and he can hit a little bit too. He hit just .197 in '10, but he hit .279 with 7 homers and 25 RBI in '09. Abreu is basically the 25th-man on the roster. He has a .251 career BA, but just a .279 OBP. He plays second, third, and short, but he's a disaster defensively at all three positions. The D-backs have a nice situation at second, having a really good player in Johnson as the starter and nice defensive depth behind him in Roberts.
Third base:
The D-backs currently have Melvin Mora penciled in as their starting third baseman. He will turn 39 in a couple of weeks. Not good. In their defense, he did have a decent season with the Rockies in '10, hitting .285 with 12 doubles, 7 homers, 45 RBI, 5 triples, and a .358 OBP in 113 games. He even posted a slightly-above average .957 Fld% at third base, but with Derek Jeter-esque range acording to Bill James' range factor per 9 innings and range factor per game stats. I want to say that he's a stop-gap for some good prospect, but their only decent third base prospect who's anywhere near the majors, Ryan Wheeler, played just 19 games at Double-A in '10 after playing in 113 at High-A. He did do well offensively, (.280, 28 doubles, 12 homers, 67 RBI, .337 OBP) and survive defensively (.949 Fld%), but he's a ways away. For now, Mora will be backed up by Geoff Blum, who hit .267 with the Astros in '10 with a significantly above-average .976 Fld% at third base. But, he'll turn 38 in April. The D-backs are very old at third base, and with no help coming in the near future, they'll just have to hope that Mora and Blum hold up.
Shortstop:
The D-backs recently signed their arbitration-eligible shortstop Stephen Drew to a two year, 13.75 million dollar deal. Good for them; he's a good all-around player. Drew isn't quite a five-tool player, but he does a little bit of everything. He's a decent hitter for average (.278 in '10), decent hitter for power (33 doubles, 15 homers, 61 RBI), he has nice speed (10 stolen bases and 12 triples), he's a good fielder (a .984 Fld%, 3rd in the NL and 3rd in the NL in putouts by a SS), and he has a nice arm (2nd in the NL in assists by a SS). He also had 83 runs, which doesn't really fit under any category (if you want to say it's part of speed, keep in mind that Mark Teixeira led the AL in runs in '10). His backups will be Roberts and Abreu. Good luck with that. Roberts has never played shortstop in the majors and has just a .959 career Fld% there in the minors. Stephen Drew is a very good shortstop for the D-backs, but there isn't much depth behind him.
Left Field:
Newly signed outfielder Xavier Nady is currently lined up as the D-backs' starting left fielder, although he could wind up playing first base if both Allen and Miranda don't play well in spring training. In a backup role for the Cubs, Nady hit .256 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 33 RBI, and just a .306 OBP in 119 games (347 AB's). Nady missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury one year after having a career year in '08, hitting .297 with 37 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 148 games between the Pirates and Yankees. From '05 to '08, Nady hit .284 with an average of 26 doubles, 19 homers, 69 RBI, and a .339 OBP per season. The D-backs are hoping that with another starting role, Nady will be able to get back to somewhere near those numbers. Defensively, Nady posted just a .970 Fld% in the outfield in '10, and has just a .966 career Fld% in left field. He better Nady's backups will be Gerardo Parra and Cole Gillespie. Parra was Arizona's primary left fielder in '10 as well as '09, but his performance in '10 didn't warrant him being the starter again. Parra was decent in '09, hitting .290 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 60 RBI, 8 triples, 5 stolen bases (7 CS), and a .324 OBP in 124 games. He posted a below-average .978 Fld% in LF. That was good enough. His .261 BA and .308 OBP in '10 were certainly not. He set career highs in just two stats: games played (133) and HBP's (2). He hit 19 doubles, 3 homers, 30 RBI, and 6 triples. He did slightly improve his Fld% in LF to .981. Good move by the D-backs to have the guts to replace a young player with a veteran even though Parra wasn't that bad. Gillespie hit .231 with 8 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .283 OBP in 45 games. He posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF and RF, but just a .969 Fld% in LF, although he did make just 1 error. The D-backs need Xavier Nady to get back to his previous numbers when he was a starting outfielder for the Padres, Mets, Pirates, and Yankees, but they do have decent depth behind him.
Centerfield:
In centerfield, the D-backs have a very good four-tool player in Chris Young. Young hit just .257 in '10, but with 33 doubles, 27 homers, 91 RBI, 94 runs, 28 stolen bases, and a .341 OBP in 156 games. Defensively, he showcased his arm with 10 outfield assists including 6 double plays, although his great arm did lead to just a .984 Fld%. Young's low batting averages got him in trouble in '10, when he hit just .212 with 15 homers and just 42 RBI. Even though Young is a four-tool player, he better put up a decent batting average in order to take advantage of those tools (if you don't hit, you won't hit for power and you won't be able to steal bases, and you'll be benched so you won't be able to take advantage of your defensive tools). Parra will be his backup. If Young can hit for just a decent average, centerfield will be one of the strongest positions for Arizona.
Right field:
Amid all the trade rumors, I'm sure at least a few people forgot that D-backs RF Justin Upton had an off year. He hit .273 with 27 doubles, 17 homers, 69 RBI, 18 SB, and a .356 OBP in 133 games. He hit .300 with 26 homers, 86 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .366 OBP in '09. As opposed to his offensive regression from '09 to '10, Upton was much better defensively, posting a .985 Fld% in '10 compared to .961 although he had just 1 assist compared to 4. Bill James' defensive metrics showed that Upton displayed great range. He had an off-year, but he's still a very good player. He'll be backed up by Parra and Gillespie. Upton is a great five-tool talent and the D-backs hope he can get back to using all five of those tools in '10.
Starting Rotation:
The D-backs' de facto ace is 26 year old right-hander and ex-Yankee Ian Kennedy. In his first full year as a starter, Kennedy did pretty well, going just 9-10, but with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's compared to just 70 walks in 32 starts and 194 IP. He allowed just 163 hits for a 7.6 H/9 ratio, good for 9th-best in the NL. Kennedy certainly had his problems, though. He allowed 26 home runs, 7th in the NL, he hit 10 batters, 3rd in the league, and he threw 16 wild pitches, good for most in the league. Still, Kennedy was pretty unhittable, although he was certainly helped by a .261 BA on balls in play (BAbip; league average is around .300). Kennedy also out-hit one of Arizona's top power hitters this past season (Mark Reynolds, who was traded to Baltimore), hitting .204 with 2 RBI and a .290 OBP. Baseball-Reference gave him a 0.4 WAR (wins above replacement) hitting, and add that onto his 2.7 WAR pitching WAR, and he had a nice 3.1 WAR season. Kennedy was a bit lucky in '10 and certainly has some things to work on, but the D-backs hope his return to 'average' luck in '10 will be canceled out by his maturity as a pitcher.
The D-backs have to hope that they'll get some better production out of Joe Saunders, acquired in the Dan Haren trade. Saunders, a right-hander who will turn 30 in June, went just 9-17 between the LA Angels (of Anaheim) and the D-backs with a 4.47 ERA, 114 K's, and 64 walks in 33 starts and amazingly, 203.1 IP, the first time he has ever gone over 200 innings in a season. He went 3-7 with a 4.25 ERA for the D-backs. Saunders' main problem in '10 was hits allowed: he allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings. But, that goes right along with his 9.7 career H/9. Saunders is a two-time 16 game winner (17 in '08 and 16 in '09), although his career ERA is just 4.29 and he has that bad H/9. In terms of hitting, there's not much to talk about. He hit just .087 with an RBI for the D-backs, although he did somehow steal a base. The D-backs just hope that Saunders can somehow maintain that 4.25 ERA he had in his 13 starts for them after they acquired him.
The Diamondbacks found lighting in a bottle with 23 year old right-hander Daniel Hudson in '10 (he will turn 24 in March). Hudson went 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA in 3 starts for the White Sox, but after the D-backs acquired him in the Edwin Jackson trade, he went 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA, 70 K's and just 16 walks in 11 starts and 79.2 IP. He allowed just 51 hits, good for a staggering 5.8 H/9. If Kennedy was unhittable, this guy was unstoppable. But, there are two factors that discourage me from thinking that Hudson is a ridiculous pitcher who will be dominating hitters for years to come: 1) he managed a 3.47 ERA in 93.1 Triple-A innings, which is OK, not great (although he did strike out 108 batters); and 2) he allowed just a .243 BAbip. How lucky is Hudson? Well besides that .243 BAbip, he also had 6 RBI despite just 4 hits (.148 BA). There's almost no way Hudson will manage another BAbip under .250, so the D-backs should just be hoping for that 3.47 ERA he posted at Triple-A. If Hudson puts that up, he might be the ace or number two starter on this team, but I'm placing him 3rd behind Kennedy and Saunders because I'm just really scared of what could happen if he allows a league average .300 BAbip.
There are three pitchers in contention for the last two spots in the Arizona rotation: Barry Enright, Zach Duke, and the recently acquired Armanda Galarraga. Enright, who will turn 25 in March went 6-7 with a 3.91 ERA, 49 K's, and 29 BB in 17 starts and 99 IP for the D-backs in '10. But, you have to be very worried about his 4.5 K/9 and terrible 1.8 HR/9 ratios. He also allowed just a .254 BAbip. But, he did have a 7.3 K/9 in the minors including an 8.9 K/9 at Double-A in '10. Enright is far from a sure thing, but you would think he could manage a decent ERA, at least under 4.50, if he can get that strikeout rate up to somewhere near his minor league levels. Hitting-wise, Enright was pretty incredible, hitting .252 with 6 RBI. While Enright was lucky, ex-Pirate Zack Duke was the exact opposite. Duke, 28 in April, went just 8-15 with a horrendous 5.72 ERA, 96 K's, and 51 walks in 29 starts, but just 159 IP. He allowed 212 hits, 12 per 9 innings, and 25 homers, 1.4 per 9, which isn't so bad unless you consider that Duke had the 3rd-best HR/9 ratio in the NL a few years ago. But, Duke is not as bad as the stats say he is. He had a crazy .343 BAbip. If that went down .300, Duke would have had at least a decent year. Duke posted a 4.95 FIP (fielding-independent pitching), which isn't great, or even good, but it's a heck of a lot better than his 5.72 ERA. Duke is not that bad of a pitcher. Duke hit just .063 with no RBI in '10, although he did have 8 sac bunts. There's almost no way Duke would be a complete disaster with an ERA over 5.20 as the D-backs' 5th starter. Galarraga, who recently turned 30, is what he is. He had his one moment in the limelight when Jim Joyce ruined his perfect game, but he went just 4-9 with a 4.49 ERA, just 74 strikeouts, and 51 walks in 24 starts, an RA (relief appearance), and 144.1 IP. He allowed 21 homers, a 1.3 HR/9, and 143 hits, an 8.9 H/9 ratio. He's an OK pitcher. He doesn't strike enough batters out to allow over 3 walks per 9 innings and nearly a hit per inning. At his best, Galarraga went 13-7 with a 3.78 ERA, 126 K's, and 61 walks in 28 starts, 2 RA's (relief appearances), and 178.2 IP. At his worst in '09, he went 6-10 with a 5.64 ERA, 95 K's, and 67 walks in 25 starts, 4 RA's, and 143.2 IP. Factoring the switch to the NL, Galarraga will probably post something like a 4.30 ERA. That's OK, but if Enright gets straightened out or Duke returns to his '09 form (4.06 ERA in 213 IP), they would certainly be better. We'll see what happens in spring training, but I think Enright and Duke should be the 4th and 5th starters, at least to begin the year, with Galarraga, who does have some relief experience, serving as a long reliever.
Bullpen:
Righty Juan Gutierrez had a really bad season, going 0-6 with a 5.08 ERA, 47 K's, 23 walks, 8 holds, and 15 saves in 58 RA's and 56.2 IP. Good thing he won't have to close again... at least you would think so. He posted a 6.87 ERA before previous closer Chad Qualls was traded compared to a 1.45 ERA after. What? That has to be an encouraging sign for the D-backs. He adjusted and had great success in his new role. Hopefully he can use that new experience of success in a late inning role to help him spring forward to a great 2011. Aaron Heilman went 5-8 with a 4.50 ERA, 55 K's, 26 walks, 12 holds, and 6 saves in 70 RA's and 72 IP. There has to be at least some worry that Heilman will collapse at age 32 after 5 straight seasons with over 70 appearances. Sam Demel, 25, went 2-1 with a 5.35 ERA, 33 K's, 12 walks, 4 holds, and 2 saves (0 blown saves) in 37 RA's and 37 IP. His main problem was that he allowed more than a hit per inning, although he did have a .325 BAbip. He posted an 8.0 K/9 and a great 2.9 BB/9, although he did allow 5 homers, 1.2 per 9. He could be a decent reliever in '11 for the D-backs if he just has 'average' luck. 27 year old right-hander Esmerling Vazquez had a just plain terrible season in '10. He appeared in 57 games, going 1-6 with a 5.20 ERA, 55 K's, 38 BB, and 6 holds in 53.2 IP. He simply walked too many batters, 6.4 per 9. That's a bit of a problem. He did post a 4.42 ERA in 53 RA's in '09, so the D-backs have to be optimistic that Vazquez wasn't as bad as his 2010 stats say he is. In exchange for Mark Reynolds, the D-backs acquired right-handers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio from the Orioles. Hernandez, who wil turn 26 in May, went 8-8 with a 4.31 ERA, 72 K's, 42 walks, 2 holds, and 2 saves in 33 RA, 8 starts, and 79.1 IP. Those are decent stats. But, as a reliever, he was pretty solid, going 7-3 with a 3.16 ERA, and 45 K's compared to just 13 walks. Hernandez did pitch in mostly low leverage situations (hence the 2 holds, and not more), but he still had a nice season as a reliever and he's moving from the AL East to the NL West, so he could be a very effective reliever for the Diamondbacks. Mickolio, who will turn 27 in May, is a different story. He posted a 7.36 ERA in 3 RA's in '10. He even posted a 6.37 ERA in 30 appearances at Triple-A in '10! That's not good. Mickolio did post a 3.50 ERA in 35 Triple-A appearances in '09 and a 1.80 ERA in 17 appearances there in '08. He also posted a 2.63 ERA with 2 holds in 11 RA's for the Orioles in '09. Mickolio can't be that bad of a reliever. His ML numbers in '10 were such a small sample size, and he had just had a terrible off-year at Triple-A. I would expect something like his 4.32 career ERA in the majors. You have to notice that every reliever besides Hernandez posted an ERA 4.50 or higher in '10. You have to be worried about that.
Closer:
J.J. Putz is lined up to close for the D-backs in '11. Putz had an outstanding season as the setup man for the White Sox, going 7-5 with a 2.83 ERA, 65 strikeouts, just 15 walks, 14 holds, and 3 saves in 60 RA's and 54 IP. His last full season as a closer was 2007, when he went 6-1 with a 1.38 ERA, 82 K's, just 13 walks, and 40 saves in 68 RA's and 71.2 IP. It's a bad sign that he hasn't been a full-time closer since '07, but I think he'll be OK because of his great '10, and because at least he does have experience in the role. Plus, he's moving to the NL West. He should be fine at closer for the D-backs, saving 35 or 40 games with an ERA 2.90 or less.
Overview:
The D-backs have a decent offense, but they'll need a big bounce-back year from Justin Upton and continued success from Chris Young. The D-backs are decent defensively, but they have potential problems at the corner infield spots. The rotation is slightly below-average at best, and the bullpen is terrible, even though Putz will probably be great. The D-backs need everything to go right to contend in '11.
2010 record: 65-97, 5th in the NL West
Prediction: 70- 92, 5th in the NL West
The D-backs will contend if... Upton and Young have breakout seasons, Brandon Allen is a contender for Rookie of the Year, Mora somehow holds down 3rd base, Ian Kennedy keeps improving, Daniel Hudson still posts an ERA under 3.00, the 4th and 5th starters are surprises in a good way, and the bullpen doesn't completely collapse like it did in 2010.
Showing posts with label Diamondbacks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Diamondbacks. Show all posts
Friday, January 28, 2011
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
A tale of two trades: Randy Johnson's tenure in the Bronx
Does everyone remember when Randy Johnson was traded to the Yankees? It was a critical time period for them, right after the sheer disappointment and failure of the 2004 postseason. So what did they do? They traded for Johnson. Who did they trade? Javier Vazquez, Dioner Navarro, and Brad Halsey. We all know why they traded Vazquez... does game 7 ring a bell? Navarro was a catching prospect who had already made a cameo in the majors at that time, but he hit just .263 in the minors in '04, and the Yankees already had Posada. Halsey, the one you probably haven't heard of, was a lefty starter coming off an outstanding season at Triple-A in which he went 11-4 with 2.62 ERA in 23 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 144 IP. He struck out just 108 (6.8 per 9), but walked just 37 (2.3 per 9). He also made 8 appearances in the majors, including 7 starts, but he posted a 6.47 ERA (3 good starts, 4 bad starts). The trade to get Johnson was certainly a reasonable one for the Yanks. Although he was already 41 years old, he was also coming off a great year himself, having gone 16-14 with a 2.60 ERA and 290 K's in 35 starts and 245.1 IP for a terrible D-backs team.
As you probably remember, Johnson's tenure in the Bronx had mix reviews. In '05, he had a good season anchoring the Yankee staff, but not a great season, going 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA and 'just' 211 K's in 34 starts and 225.2 IP. No only Yankee starter that threw 200 innings, won 15 games, and or 150 batters. He was the one stabilizing force in a season riddled by injuries to starting pitchers (this was the Aaron Small/Shawn Chacon year). In 2005 though, Johnson was not anywhere near as effective. He won 17 games again, going 17-11, but with a 5.00 ERA and just 172 K's in 33 starts and 205 IP. After the year, the Yankees traded Johnson back to Arizona in exchange for Luis Vizcaino, Ross Ohlendorf, Steven Jackson, and Alberto Gonzalez. Vizcaino had a nice year as a reliever in '05, posting a 4.30 ERA, but in 77 appearances. He left as a free agent following the year. (He recently re-signed with the Yankees.) Ohlendorf pitched very badly for the Yankees for parts of two seasons for the Yanks (6.02 ERA), but has been a good pitcher since being traded to Pittsburgh, posting a 12-24 record despite a 4.15 ERA. Jackson never pitched for the Yankees, but has posted a 4.31 ERA for the Pirates as a reliever. The Yankees traded Gonzalez to Washington after he hit just .152 for them. None of the acquired players made a difference for the Yankees long-term.
Johnson posted a 3.89 ERA for Arizona from '07 to '08. After getting his 300th win while playing for the Giants in 2010, he retired. He will certainly be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. That being said, his 2-year tenure with the Yankees showed that he was really taking advantage of pitching in the NL West. His ERA was much better in the NL (2.92) than in the NL (3.60) for his career. But, he was still a good enough pitcher to survive even in the tough AL East and win 34 games in two seasons.
Randy Johnson's two year tenure in the Bronx was not successful, but had the Yankees not acquired him, they would not have made the playoffs in '05. Even though he struggled in the AL East, he still found ways to win ballgames and help the team win. He should be credited for lasting his age 41 and age 42 seasons in the AL East, rather than have his 4.37 ERA during that time period held against him. Even in the twilight of his career, he was still able to get the job done with all the pressure in the world on him under the bright lights of New York.
As you probably remember, Johnson's tenure in the Bronx had mix reviews. In '05, he had a good season anchoring the Yankee staff, but not a great season, going 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA and 'just' 211 K's in 34 starts and 225.2 IP. No only Yankee starter that threw 200 innings, won 15 games, and or 150 batters. He was the one stabilizing force in a season riddled by injuries to starting pitchers (this was the Aaron Small/Shawn Chacon year). In 2005 though, Johnson was not anywhere near as effective. He won 17 games again, going 17-11, but with a 5.00 ERA and just 172 K's in 33 starts and 205 IP. After the year, the Yankees traded Johnson back to Arizona in exchange for Luis Vizcaino, Ross Ohlendorf, Steven Jackson, and Alberto Gonzalez. Vizcaino had a nice year as a reliever in '05, posting a 4.30 ERA, but in 77 appearances. He left as a free agent following the year. (He recently re-signed with the Yankees.) Ohlendorf pitched very badly for the Yankees for parts of two seasons for the Yanks (6.02 ERA), but has been a good pitcher since being traded to Pittsburgh, posting a 12-24 record despite a 4.15 ERA. Jackson never pitched for the Yankees, but has posted a 4.31 ERA for the Pirates as a reliever. The Yankees traded Gonzalez to Washington after he hit just .152 for them. None of the acquired players made a difference for the Yankees long-term.
Johnson posted a 3.89 ERA for Arizona from '07 to '08. After getting his 300th win while playing for the Giants in 2010, he retired. He will certainly be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. That being said, his 2-year tenure with the Yankees showed that he was really taking advantage of pitching in the NL West. His ERA was much better in the NL (2.92) than in the NL (3.60) for his career. But, he was still a good enough pitcher to survive even in the tough AL East and win 34 games in two seasons.
Randy Johnson's two year tenure in the Bronx was not successful, but had the Yankees not acquired him, they would not have made the playoffs in '05. Even though he struggled in the AL East, he still found ways to win ballgames and help the team win. He should be credited for lasting his age 41 and age 42 seasons in the AL East, rather than have his 4.37 ERA during that time period held against him. Even in the twilight of his career, he was still able to get the job done with all the pressure in the world on him under the bright lights of New York.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Dunn to White Sox
The Chicago White Sox have signed 1B Adam Dunn to a 4-year, 56 million dollar deal. Dunn is one of the premier power hitters in the majors right now, having averaged 40 homers and 101 RBI the last 7 seasons. He also posted a .381 OBP over that same stretch. He's certainly a great offensive player, but considering the fact that he's replacing Paul Konerko, will he improve the White Sox?
Let's compare the stats of Dunn and Konerko. Dunn hit .260 with 36 doubles, 38 homers, 103 RBI, 85 runs, and a .356 OBP (his career low) in 158 games for the Nats. He posted a below-average .990 fielding percentage (Fld%) in 153 games at first base. Konerko hit .312 with 30 doubles, 39 homers, 111 RBI, 89 runs, and a .393 OBP (his career high) in 149 games. Using OPS+, Konerko was much more valuable than Dunn, posting a 158 OPS+ to Dunn's 138. He posted a league-average .994 Fld% in 125 games at first base. The cold hard stats say that Konerko was better than Dunn in '10. It's hard to disagree.
So, will Dunn make the White Sox' offense better than it was in '10? No. But, the White Sox made the right move in signing Dunn over Konerko. Why? There are 2 factors: 1) Dunn is 4 years younger than Konerko; and 2) Konerko had a career year. When next season begins, Dunn will be 31 and Konerko will be 35. Common sense says that Dunn has more good years left in him than Konerko. Also, although Konerko had a better year than Dunn in '10, he may not do that again. His career averages per full season are a .288 BA with 28 homers and 90 RBI (I took out 1997 when he appeared in 6 games, but kept 1998, when he appeared in 75). Dunn has hit .250 with 35 homers and 88 RBI. If both players return to their career averages, Konerko will still be better because he has a better BA and more RBI per season, but you have to keep in mind that the White Sox are better than Dunn's previous teams, the Reds and Nationals (along with the D-backs for half a season) were much worse than the White Sox so Dunn will get more RBI's and he has averaged 101 RBI the last 7 seasons. His career average for RBI's is skewed because he averages 57 RBI per season from '01 to '03. Also, you have to expect Konerko to begin declining within a couple years, so the Dunn will definitely be better over the next 4 seasons.
In conclusion, although it may look like the White Sox are actually going to regress offensively by signing Dunn over Konerko, the move is definitely the right one because Dunn will definitely be better than Konerko over the life of his contract.
Let's compare the stats of Dunn and Konerko. Dunn hit .260 with 36 doubles, 38 homers, 103 RBI, 85 runs, and a .356 OBP (his career low) in 158 games for the Nats. He posted a below-average .990 fielding percentage (Fld%) in 153 games at first base. Konerko hit .312 with 30 doubles, 39 homers, 111 RBI, 89 runs, and a .393 OBP (his career high) in 149 games. Using OPS+, Konerko was much more valuable than Dunn, posting a 158 OPS+ to Dunn's 138. He posted a league-average .994 Fld% in 125 games at first base. The cold hard stats say that Konerko was better than Dunn in '10. It's hard to disagree.
So, will Dunn make the White Sox' offense better than it was in '10? No. But, the White Sox made the right move in signing Dunn over Konerko. Why? There are 2 factors: 1) Dunn is 4 years younger than Konerko; and 2) Konerko had a career year. When next season begins, Dunn will be 31 and Konerko will be 35. Common sense says that Dunn has more good years left in him than Konerko. Also, although Konerko had a better year than Dunn in '10, he may not do that again. His career averages per full season are a .288 BA with 28 homers and 90 RBI (I took out 1997 when he appeared in 6 games, but kept 1998, when he appeared in 75). Dunn has hit .250 with 35 homers and 88 RBI. If both players return to their career averages, Konerko will still be better because he has a better BA and more RBI per season, but you have to keep in mind that the White Sox are better than Dunn's previous teams, the Reds and Nationals (along with the D-backs for half a season) were much worse than the White Sox so Dunn will get more RBI's and he has averaged 101 RBI the last 7 seasons. His career average for RBI's is skewed because he averages 57 RBI per season from '01 to '03. Also, you have to expect Konerko to begin declining within a couple years, so the Dunn will definitely be better over the next 4 seasons.
In conclusion, although it may look like the White Sox are actually going to regress offensively by signing Dunn over Konerko, the move is definitely the right one because Dunn will definitely be better than Konerko over the life of his contract.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Yankees-Diamondbacks trade
The Yankees have traded minor league first baseman Juan Miranda to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect Scottie Allen.
Miranda, who will turn 28 in April, hit .285 at Triple-A in '10 with 15 doubles, 15 homers, 43 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 80 games. He played pretty well defensively at first base, posting a .992 Fld%. Miranda also hit .219 in 30 games with the Yankees, with 2 doubles, 3 homers, 10 RBI, and a .296 OBP. He didn't make any errors in 13 games at first base.
Allen, who will turn 20 in July, was Arizona's 11th round draft pick in '09. He worked out of the bullpen at Rookie ball in '09, going 1-0 with a 0.51 ERA and 16 K's in 12 relief appearances and 17.2 IP. He walked 7, a few too many, but still managed a 2.29 K/BB ratio. He was so dominant because he allowed just 9 hits, good for an amazing 4.6 H/9 (hits per 9 innings) ratio, and 0 homers. In '10, Allen was a starter at Short Season-A, and went 4-4 with a 4.73 ERA and 79 K's in 16 starts and 78 IP. He walked just 22 and posted a 3.59 K/BB, but struggled because he allowed 88 hits, which amounts to a bad 10.2 H/9 ratio. He also allowed 5 homers, which comes out to a 0.6 HR/9 ratio.
At 27 years old going on 28, Miranda isn't really a prospect anymore and the Yankees had no need for him. So, the traded him to the D-backs, who for the moment don't have a starting first baseman, and got a prospect, Allen, in return. Allen has potential. He has posted good K/BB ratios both of his years in the minors, and when he allowed less than a hit per inning in '09, he did very well. If he does that consistently, he will be a great prospect and potentially a great major league pitcher.
Miranda, who will turn 28 in April, hit .285 at Triple-A in '10 with 15 doubles, 15 homers, 43 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 80 games. He played pretty well defensively at first base, posting a .992 Fld%. Miranda also hit .219 in 30 games with the Yankees, with 2 doubles, 3 homers, 10 RBI, and a .296 OBP. He didn't make any errors in 13 games at first base.
Allen, who will turn 20 in July, was Arizona's 11th round draft pick in '09. He worked out of the bullpen at Rookie ball in '09, going 1-0 with a 0.51 ERA and 16 K's in 12 relief appearances and 17.2 IP. He walked 7, a few too many, but still managed a 2.29 K/BB ratio. He was so dominant because he allowed just 9 hits, good for an amazing 4.6 H/9 (hits per 9 innings) ratio, and 0 homers. In '10, Allen was a starter at Short Season-A, and went 4-4 with a 4.73 ERA and 79 K's in 16 starts and 78 IP. He walked just 22 and posted a 3.59 K/BB, but struggled because he allowed 88 hits, which amounts to a bad 10.2 H/9 ratio. He also allowed 5 homers, which comes out to a 0.6 HR/9 ratio.
At 27 years old going on 28, Miranda isn't really a prospect anymore and the Yankees had no need for him. So, the traded him to the D-backs, who for the moment don't have a starting first baseman, and got a prospect, Allen, in return. Allen has potential. He has posted good K/BB ratios both of his years in the minors, and when he allowed less than a hit per inning in '09, he did very well. If he does that consistently, he will be a great prospect and potentially a great major league pitcher.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Why are the Florida Marlins in a big situation with Dan Uggla? The Arizona Diamondbacks
Dan Uggla is a great player right now. He is the only second baseman in MLB history to hit 30 homers in 4 different seasons. In '10, he set career highs with 33 homers, 105 RBI, a .287 BA, and a .369 OBP. Although there are questions about his defense, his great offense at 2B certainly outweighs those concerns. It seems like a no-brainer that the Marlins should sign him long-term. But, Uggla is going to be 31 on March 11th. Still, the Marlins offered Uggla a 4-year, 48 million dollar contract extension and he declined it. Now the Marlins are looking to possibly trade Uggla. What should they do?
If Uggla was 2 or more years younger, I have no doubt that the Marlins would add in the 5th year to the contract to satisfy him. But, he's 31. Maybe he'll have a few more amazing seasons in him, but his decline is coming sooner rather than later. Late bloomer stories are nice, but in sports, they put you at a disadvantage. Again, don't get me wrong, Uggla is a great player, but he's not some 25 year old hotshot 2nd baseman. If he was 25 right now, the Marlins would offer him the same 6-year, 70 million dollar extension that they gave to Hanley Ramirez at age 25. Even if he was 28 like Robinson Cano is right now (Cano's birthday was October 22nd), he would get an enormous extension like the one that Cano is about to get from the Yankees. Even if he was one year younger he would have had more leverage in the negotiation and the Marlins would have offered him a bigger deal! But, he's 31. It's certainly unfortunate for him, but it's true.
Really, it's all the Arizona Diamondbacks' fault. The Diamondbacks drafted Uggla in the 11th round of the 2001 draft out of the University of Memphis. They started him at Short Season-A Yakima and he did pretty well, hitting .277 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 40 RBI, 8 SB, and a .341 in 72 games. In '02, Uggla was promoted to Low-A South Bend, but he struggled hitting just .199 with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 10 RBI, 0 SB, and a .299 OBP in 53 games. Why did the Diamondbacks leave him there for 53 games? After 53 games, they finally understood that he needed a change of scenery, and they promoted him to High-A Lancaster, where he showed some improvement, hitting .228 with 7 doubles, 3 homers, 16 RBI, 3 SB, and a .311 OBP in 54 games. In '03, the Diamondbacks sent Uggla back to Lancaster at age 23, and the move certainly paid off, as he hit .290 with 31 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, 7 triples, 24 SB, 104 runs, and a .355 OBP in 134 games. Uggla was able to develop some confidence and finally tap into his potential.
2004 was when the Diamondbacks messed up Uggla. They sent Uggla back to Lancaster to begin the year right after he dominated at that level. Hitting .290 with 23 homers isn't enough? And they kept him there for 37 games! After 37 dominant games in which Uggla hit .336, they finally promoted him to Double-A El Paso, where he hit .258 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 30 RBI, 10 SB, and a .301 OBP in 83 games. Are those good numbers? Certainly not, but what if he had 37 more games to adjust? In '05, he hit .297 at Double-A Tennessee (the affiliate moved) with 33 doubles, 21 homers, 87 RBI, 15 SB, 81 runs, and a .378 OBP in 135 games. After the season, Uggla was left off the D-backs' 40-man roster, and he was selected by the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft, starting a great career.
What if Uggla had been promoted to Double-A to begin '04? Well, let me present these 2 scenarios: Uggla struggles to begin '04 at Double-A, but he adjusts and ends up hitting .280 with 15 homers. He is promoted to the big league roster in September. He is the D-backs' starting 2nd baseman in '05 (moving Craig Counsell to SS and forcing Royce Clayton on the bench), and the D-backs don't trade for Orlando Hudson. Uggla becomes the team's star 2nd baseman, winning the NL Rookie of the Year in '05, beating out Ryan Howard, and they lock him up long term in either '07, '08, or '09. Uggla would have gotten an extra season in the majors and been more likely to get a nice long-term deal. Or, let's say Uggla struggles mightily both offensively and defensively in September of '04 and the D-backs elect to keep him off the 40-man roster. The Marlins draft him in the Rule 5 draft, and Uggla still wins the NL Rookie of the Year in '05, starting a great major league career.
Bottom line, Uggla should have been a starter in the majors one year earlier and it's unfortunate for him that it didn't happen because he isn't getting as much money as he would have if he was one year younger.
If Uggla was 2 or more years younger, I have no doubt that the Marlins would add in the 5th year to the contract to satisfy him. But, he's 31. Maybe he'll have a few more amazing seasons in him, but his decline is coming sooner rather than later. Late bloomer stories are nice, but in sports, they put you at a disadvantage. Again, don't get me wrong, Uggla is a great player, but he's not some 25 year old hotshot 2nd baseman. If he was 25 right now, the Marlins would offer him the same 6-year, 70 million dollar extension that they gave to Hanley Ramirez at age 25. Even if he was 28 like Robinson Cano is right now (Cano's birthday was October 22nd), he would get an enormous extension like the one that Cano is about to get from the Yankees. Even if he was one year younger he would have had more leverage in the negotiation and the Marlins would have offered him a bigger deal! But, he's 31. It's certainly unfortunate for him, but it's true.
Really, it's all the Arizona Diamondbacks' fault. The Diamondbacks drafted Uggla in the 11th round of the 2001 draft out of the University of Memphis. They started him at Short Season-A Yakima and he did pretty well, hitting .277 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 40 RBI, 8 SB, and a .341 in 72 games. In '02, Uggla was promoted to Low-A South Bend, but he struggled hitting just .199 with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 10 RBI, 0 SB, and a .299 OBP in 53 games. Why did the Diamondbacks leave him there for 53 games? After 53 games, they finally understood that he needed a change of scenery, and they promoted him to High-A Lancaster, where he showed some improvement, hitting .228 with 7 doubles, 3 homers, 16 RBI, 3 SB, and a .311 OBP in 54 games. In '03, the Diamondbacks sent Uggla back to Lancaster at age 23, and the move certainly paid off, as he hit .290 with 31 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, 7 triples, 24 SB, 104 runs, and a .355 OBP in 134 games. Uggla was able to develop some confidence and finally tap into his potential.
2004 was when the Diamondbacks messed up Uggla. They sent Uggla back to Lancaster to begin the year right after he dominated at that level. Hitting .290 with 23 homers isn't enough? And they kept him there for 37 games! After 37 dominant games in which Uggla hit .336, they finally promoted him to Double-A El Paso, where he hit .258 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 30 RBI, 10 SB, and a .301 OBP in 83 games. Are those good numbers? Certainly not, but what if he had 37 more games to adjust? In '05, he hit .297 at Double-A Tennessee (the affiliate moved) with 33 doubles, 21 homers, 87 RBI, 15 SB, 81 runs, and a .378 OBP in 135 games. After the season, Uggla was left off the D-backs' 40-man roster, and he was selected by the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft, starting a great career.
What if Uggla had been promoted to Double-A to begin '04? Well, let me present these 2 scenarios: Uggla struggles to begin '04 at Double-A, but he adjusts and ends up hitting .280 with 15 homers. He is promoted to the big league roster in September. He is the D-backs' starting 2nd baseman in '05 (moving Craig Counsell to SS and forcing Royce Clayton on the bench), and the D-backs don't trade for Orlando Hudson. Uggla becomes the team's star 2nd baseman, winning the NL Rookie of the Year in '05, beating out Ryan Howard, and they lock him up long term in either '07, '08, or '09. Uggla would have gotten an extra season in the majors and been more likely to get a nice long-term deal. Or, let's say Uggla struggles mightily both offensively and defensively in September of '04 and the D-backs elect to keep him off the 40-man roster. The Marlins draft him in the Rule 5 draft, and Uggla still wins the NL Rookie of the Year in '05, starting a great major league career.
Bottom line, Uggla should have been a starter in the majors one year earlier and it's unfortunate for him that it didn't happen because he isn't getting as much money as he would have if he was one year younger.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Another review of the Granderson-Austin Jackson trade
Before the 2009 season, the Yankees traded top prospect CF Austin Jackson and LH reliever Phil Coke to Detroit and RHP Ian Kennedy to Arizona in exchange for Curtis Granderson. The Tigers also traded RHP Edwin Jackson for RHP Max Scherzer and LH reliever Daniel Schlereth.
Why did the Yankees do the trade? They already had a top-flight centerfielder in Jackson who was ready for the majors!
Yesterday I was thinking and it finally came to me- Brett Gardner was the key to the trade for the Yankees. (Wait, what?) Yes, Brett Gardner, who wasn't even part of the trade, was the key to the trade for them. We'll get back to this point in a moment. First, let's analyze the trade for all the teams involved.
Jackson had a great rookie year, .293 with 34 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 10 triples, 181 hits, 103 runs, 27 SB, and a .345 OBP in 151 games. But, he led the AL with 170 strikeouts. How can a player with just 4 homers lead the AL in strikeouts? But, you could argue, he still hit .293. Well, let's compare Jackson to Curtis Granderson. Granderson led the AL in strikeouts in '06, his first full season, hitting .260. But, the next season in '07, he finished 7th in the league in strikeouts and hit .302. But, in '08 he hit .280, and in '09 and '10, he has hit under .250. Will the same thing happen to Jackson? For the time being at least, he's a good player.
Granderson missed time with a groin injury in '10, but Kevin Long fixed his swing and he had a nice year. He hit .247 with 17 doubles, 24 homers, 67 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 12 SB, and a .324 OBP in 136 games. He struck out 116 times. He hit .249 with 30 homers and 71 RBI in 160 games in '09, striking out 141 times. He is what he is. He's a good defensive CF with a lot of power and some speed. He of course strikes out a lot, but he's a good player.
Coke had a pretty good year as a workhorse lefty reliever, going 7-5 with a 3.76 ERA, 53 'K's, and 2 saves in 73 relief appearances, 1 start, and 64.2 IP. He walked only 26 for a 2-1 K/BB ratio, and allowed just 2 homers, but he allowed 67 hits, more than a hit per inning. It was better than his '09 season when he went 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 72 relief appearances for the Yankees, giving up 10 home runs. Strangely, he allowed just 44 hits in 60 IP. The Yankees clearly traded Coke because he's just not good. They were able to acquire Boone Logan, so they don't even miss him.
Kennedy had a good rookie season for the Diamondbacks, going 9-10 with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's in 32 starts and 194 IP. He also allowed just 163 hits, way less than a hit per inning, and 70 walks, good for a better than 2-1 K/BB ratio. But, he gave up 26 home runs and led the NL with 16 wild pitches. He's an OK pitcher. The Yankees didn't think he was of any use to them, so they traded him. They knew they had guys like Ivan Nova and Andrew Brackman coming up from the minors. It did turn out that they could have used him after Vazquez was a disaster.
Edwin Jackson had a very interesting season. He went 6-10 with a 5.16 ERA for Arizona and 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA after being traded to the Chicago White Sox. He threw a no-hitter, but he allowed 8 walks and threw 149 pitches. He struck out 181, but he walked 70, allowed more than a hit per inning, and he allowed 21 home runs. The trade was a disaster for Arizona.
Scherzer had a good season for Detroit, going 12-11 with a 3.50 ERA and 184 K's in 31 starts and 195.2 IP. He allowed just 174 hits, way less than a hit per inning. Scherzer did walk 70, but he still had a K/BB ratio better than 2.5. Detroit made a great deal in getting this guy.
Schlereth had a good season at Triple-A Toledo, going 1-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 60 K's in 39 relief appearances and 49.1 IP. But, he walked 34, a high average of 6.2 per 9. He did well in a big league tryout for Detroit, going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 18 relief appearances. He's a pretty good prospect, but he definitely has to work on his control.
It's clear who the winner is in this trade. The Tigers traded away 2 veterans in Granderson and Edwin Jackson for a starting CF in Austin Jackson that's a very different player than Granderson, but just as good, a starter pitcher in Scherzer that's probably better than Edwin Jackson, a lefty to be in the bullpen now in Coke, and a lefty that will be in the bullpen soon, in Schlereth. They are the clear winners in this trade. The Yankees got their guy in Granderson, and he did well, so it apparently wasn't a terrible trade for them. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks had just a terrible trade, as Edwin Jackson under-performed for them. Although Kennedy did well, they gave up a good big league pitcher in Scherzer and a lefty reliever who could eventually be a setup man, and maybe even a closer.
So, now to Brett Gardner, the key to the trade for the Yankees. Austin Jackson is a good player, but he has so little power. So does Gardner. Did the Yankees need both Jackson and Gardner? No. They would have had a very speedy outfield, but they would've had 2 starting players with 5 or less homers. When was the last time the Yankees had 2 guys like that? 1997, when Joe Girardi, Luis Sojo, and Tim Raines had 1, 2, and 4 homers respectively. Even then, Sojo and Raines both played under 80 games. In 1996, the Yankees had Girardi and Mariano Duncan who both hit 2 homers in addition to Gerald Williams who hit 5 homers in 99 games. Clearly, the Yankees can win with 2 players like that, but they probably preferred not to. Jackson was a more tradable player so they traded him instead of Gardner. In Granderson, the Yankees acquired a player with power who was a great hitter for Yankee stadium. The Yankees don't play small ball- they play "power ball". The Yankees probably would've liked to keep Coke, but they were willing to trade him (and Kennedy, who they had no use for) to do the Austin Jackson- Granderson swap. Jackson is a triples hitter, so he's great for Comerica, while Granderson has enough power to hit 35 homers in Yankee Stadium. Although there's no way to say that the Tigers weren't the winners in this trade, the Yankees accomplished exactly what they wanted so it was a good trade for them as well.
Why did the Yankees do the trade? They already had a top-flight centerfielder in Jackson who was ready for the majors!
Yesterday I was thinking and it finally came to me- Brett Gardner was the key to the trade for the Yankees. (Wait, what?) Yes, Brett Gardner, who wasn't even part of the trade, was the key to the trade for them. We'll get back to this point in a moment. First, let's analyze the trade for all the teams involved.
Jackson had a great rookie year, .293 with 34 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 10 triples, 181 hits, 103 runs, 27 SB, and a .345 OBP in 151 games. But, he led the AL with 170 strikeouts. How can a player with just 4 homers lead the AL in strikeouts? But, you could argue, he still hit .293. Well, let's compare Jackson to Curtis Granderson. Granderson led the AL in strikeouts in '06, his first full season, hitting .260. But, the next season in '07, he finished 7th in the league in strikeouts and hit .302. But, in '08 he hit .280, and in '09 and '10, he has hit under .250. Will the same thing happen to Jackson? For the time being at least, he's a good player.
Granderson missed time with a groin injury in '10, but Kevin Long fixed his swing and he had a nice year. He hit .247 with 17 doubles, 24 homers, 67 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 12 SB, and a .324 OBP in 136 games. He struck out 116 times. He hit .249 with 30 homers and 71 RBI in 160 games in '09, striking out 141 times. He is what he is. He's a good defensive CF with a lot of power and some speed. He of course strikes out a lot, but he's a good player.
Coke had a pretty good year as a workhorse lefty reliever, going 7-5 with a 3.76 ERA, 53 'K's, and 2 saves in 73 relief appearances, 1 start, and 64.2 IP. He walked only 26 for a 2-1 K/BB ratio, and allowed just 2 homers, but he allowed 67 hits, more than a hit per inning. It was better than his '09 season when he went 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 72 relief appearances for the Yankees, giving up 10 home runs. Strangely, he allowed just 44 hits in 60 IP. The Yankees clearly traded Coke because he's just not good. They were able to acquire Boone Logan, so they don't even miss him.
Kennedy had a good rookie season for the Diamondbacks, going 9-10 with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's in 32 starts and 194 IP. He also allowed just 163 hits, way less than a hit per inning, and 70 walks, good for a better than 2-1 K/BB ratio. But, he gave up 26 home runs and led the NL with 16 wild pitches. He's an OK pitcher. The Yankees didn't think he was of any use to them, so they traded him. They knew they had guys like Ivan Nova and Andrew Brackman coming up from the minors. It did turn out that they could have used him after Vazquez was a disaster.
Edwin Jackson had a very interesting season. He went 6-10 with a 5.16 ERA for Arizona and 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA after being traded to the Chicago White Sox. He threw a no-hitter, but he allowed 8 walks and threw 149 pitches. He struck out 181, but he walked 70, allowed more than a hit per inning, and he allowed 21 home runs. The trade was a disaster for Arizona.
Scherzer had a good season for Detroit, going 12-11 with a 3.50 ERA and 184 K's in 31 starts and 195.2 IP. He allowed just 174 hits, way less than a hit per inning. Scherzer did walk 70, but he still had a K/BB ratio better than 2.5. Detroit made a great deal in getting this guy.
Schlereth had a good season at Triple-A Toledo, going 1-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 60 K's in 39 relief appearances and 49.1 IP. But, he walked 34, a high average of 6.2 per 9. He did well in a big league tryout for Detroit, going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 18 relief appearances. He's a pretty good prospect, but he definitely has to work on his control.
It's clear who the winner is in this trade. The Tigers traded away 2 veterans in Granderson and Edwin Jackson for a starting CF in Austin Jackson that's a very different player than Granderson, but just as good, a starter pitcher in Scherzer that's probably better than Edwin Jackson, a lefty to be in the bullpen now in Coke, and a lefty that will be in the bullpen soon, in Schlereth. They are the clear winners in this trade. The Yankees got their guy in Granderson, and he did well, so it apparently wasn't a terrible trade for them. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks had just a terrible trade, as Edwin Jackson under-performed for them. Although Kennedy did well, they gave up a good big league pitcher in Scherzer and a lefty reliever who could eventually be a setup man, and maybe even a closer.
So, now to Brett Gardner, the key to the trade for the Yankees. Austin Jackson is a good player, but he has so little power. So does Gardner. Did the Yankees need both Jackson and Gardner? No. They would have had a very speedy outfield, but they would've had 2 starting players with 5 or less homers. When was the last time the Yankees had 2 guys like that? 1997, when Joe Girardi, Luis Sojo, and Tim Raines had 1, 2, and 4 homers respectively. Even then, Sojo and Raines both played under 80 games. In 1996, the Yankees had Girardi and Mariano Duncan who both hit 2 homers in addition to Gerald Williams who hit 5 homers in 99 games. Clearly, the Yankees can win with 2 players like that, but they probably preferred not to. Jackson was a more tradable player so they traded him instead of Gardner. In Granderson, the Yankees acquired a player with power who was a great hitter for Yankee stadium. The Yankees don't play small ball- they play "power ball". The Yankees probably would've liked to keep Coke, but they were willing to trade him (and Kennedy, who they had no use for) to do the Austin Jackson- Granderson swap. Jackson is a triples hitter, so he's great for Comerica, while Granderson has enough power to hit 35 homers in Yankee Stadium. Although there's no way to say that the Tigers weren't the winners in this trade, the Yankees accomplished exactly what they wanted so it was a good trade for them as well.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Will Brandon Webb ever return to his previous form?
From 2003 to 2008, Brandon Webb was among the top 3 pitchers in the National League. Over that span, he went 87-62 with a 3.24 ERA. He finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2003, going 10-9 with a 2.84 ERA and 172 K's in 28 starts, 1 relief apperance, and 180.1 IP. In '04, Webb went just 7-16, but that was because he was on a terrible team that lost a staggering 111 games. He posted a 3.59 ERA and 164 K's in 35 starts and 208 IP. If Webb did have an Achilles' heel that season, it was his control: his walk total was 119, tops in the NL, an average of 5.1 per 9 innings, and he threw 17 wild pitches, also tops in the NL. Still, his 7 wins were 2nd on the team to Randy Johnson's improbable 16 wins on one of the worst teams ever. Webb didn't let the 16 losses haunt him in '05. He had a good year, going 14-12 with a 3.54 ERA and 172 K's in 33 starts and 229 IP. He improved his walk rate to just 2.3 per 9. '05 served as a stepping stone for years to come.
In '06, Webb came out of nowhere (at least in the eyes of non-Diamondbacks fans) to win the NL Cy Young Award. He went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 178 K's in 33 starts and 235 IP. He was tied for 1st in the league in wins, 3rd in ERA, and 10th in strikeouts. He walked jsut 1.9 batters per 9 innings and led the NL with a 0.6 HR/9 ratio. In addition, he had 5 complete games, including 3 shutouts (in 3 consecutive starts), tops in the NL. The funny thing is that Webb had a better season in '07, but "only" finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting. He went 18-10 with a 3.01 ERA and 194 K's in 34 starts and 236.1 IP, most in the NL. His walk rate went up to 2.7 per 9, but he allowed just 0.5 homers per 9, and he improved his H/9 to 8.0 (it was 8.3 in '06). Although Webb had an arguably better season than his Cy Young season of '06, he finished a distant second to unanimous winner Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.54 ERA, 240 K's). By '07, Webb had proved himself as a great starter, one of the best in the majors. He only continued that in '08, going 22-7 with a 3.30 ERA and 183 K's in 34 starts and 226.2 IP. The 22 wins led the majors. Webb had slightly fewer strikeouts, but he was still great, but in '09, everything changed.
Webb started Opening Day 2009 for Arizona. He went 4 innings, giving up 6 runs, before being placed on the DL the next day with a right shoulder injury. He missed the rest of '09 and all of '10. (He has begun pitching in instructional league.) Will he ever be the same?
Webb's exact shoulder injury was right shoulder bursitis. Bursitis is when a bursa (a cavity within a joint) becomes swollen. It's not a terribly serious injury (think 15-day DL), but it often comes about after a rotator cuff injury, which you would think must have been Webb's injury, considering he has missed so much time. Instead he sprained his major teres muscle, but basically the same effect occured. Although it was thought as a strain for nearly all of '09, it eventually required surgery.
Webb is not the same pitcher. The former NL Cy Young had his arm-slot was lowered, potentially changing his delivery. Since he's come back, he's been throwing high-80's. Webb is a free agent. Is he worth the risk for a contender? Will some pitching-deprived team sign him to an incentives-based deal? Well, we'll have to see what happens.
In '06, Webb came out of nowhere (at least in the eyes of non-Diamondbacks fans) to win the NL Cy Young Award. He went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 178 K's in 33 starts and 235 IP. He was tied for 1st in the league in wins, 3rd in ERA, and 10th in strikeouts. He walked jsut 1.9 batters per 9 innings and led the NL with a 0.6 HR/9 ratio. In addition, he had 5 complete games, including 3 shutouts (in 3 consecutive starts), tops in the NL. The funny thing is that Webb had a better season in '07, but "only" finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting. He went 18-10 with a 3.01 ERA and 194 K's in 34 starts and 236.1 IP, most in the NL. His walk rate went up to 2.7 per 9, but he allowed just 0.5 homers per 9, and he improved his H/9 to 8.0 (it was 8.3 in '06). Although Webb had an arguably better season than his Cy Young season of '06, he finished a distant second to unanimous winner Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.54 ERA, 240 K's). By '07, Webb had proved himself as a great starter, one of the best in the majors. He only continued that in '08, going 22-7 with a 3.30 ERA and 183 K's in 34 starts and 226.2 IP. The 22 wins led the majors. Webb had slightly fewer strikeouts, but he was still great, but in '09, everything changed.
Webb started Opening Day 2009 for Arizona. He went 4 innings, giving up 6 runs, before being placed on the DL the next day with a right shoulder injury. He missed the rest of '09 and all of '10. (He has begun pitching in instructional league.) Will he ever be the same?
Webb's exact shoulder injury was right shoulder bursitis. Bursitis is when a bursa (a cavity within a joint) becomes swollen. It's not a terribly serious injury (think 15-day DL), but it often comes about after a rotator cuff injury, which you would think must have been Webb's injury, considering he has missed so much time. Instead he sprained his major teres muscle, but basically the same effect occured. Although it was thought as a strain for nearly all of '09, it eventually required surgery.
Webb is not the same pitcher. The former NL Cy Young had his arm-slot was lowered, potentially changing his delivery. Since he's come back, he's been throwing high-80's. Webb is a free agent. Is he worth the risk for a contender? Will some pitching-deprived team sign him to an incentives-based deal? Well, we'll have to see what happens.
Friday, July 9, 2010
A review of every significant Yankee trade since '08
Nearly every year, the Yankees make a deal or two to acquire some veterans in exchange for some prospects and/or young major league players. Let's look at these trades (since '08), how the former Yankees and Yankee prospects have been doing, and how the players acquired in the trades by the Yankees have been doing in order to see whether the trades have ended being a good trades for the Yanks. I'll go through these in reverse chronological order.
In December of '09, the Yankees acquired RHP Javier Vazquez and left-handed reliever Boone Logan in exchange for major league OF Melky Cabrera, left-handed pitching prospect Mike Dunn, and right-handed pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino. Melky has hit .257 for the Braves with 12 doubles, 2 homers, 23 RBI, 3 SB, and a .314 OBP in 82 games. Dunn has gone 2-0 at Triple-A Gwinnett, with a 1.11 ERA and 54 K's in 31 relief appearances and 40.2 IP. Vizcaino went 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 66 K's in 12 starts and 69.1 IP for Low-A Rome before being promoted to High-A Myrtle Beach, where he has gone 0-0 with a 4.61 ERA and 11 K's in 3 starts and 13.2 IP. It's too early to tell, but this has been a pretty even trade so far. The Yankees traded a decent major league player and two good prospects for Vazquez, who is starting to pitch like a great pitcher, and a pretty good reliever in Boone Logan.
Also in December of '09, the Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks made a 3-way trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yanks, Edwin Jackson and Yankees RHP prospect Ian Kennedy to the D-backs, and Arizona right-handed relief prospect Mark Schlereth and right-handed major league starter Max Scherzer going to Detroit along with Yankee CF prospect Austin Jackson and major league lefty reliever Phil Coke. Let's look at how Kennedy, Coke, and Jackson have done for their respective teams. Kennedy has gone 3-7 with a 4.16 ERA and 95 K's in 17 starts and 106 IP. He has been a pretty starter for the D-backs. Coke has been a great reliever for Detroit, going 5-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 28 K's in 40 relief appearances and 34.2 IP. Jackson has hit .306 as the regular centerfielder for the Tigers, with 20 doubles, 1 homer, 20 RBI, 4 triples, 13 SB, and a .355 OBP in 75 games. I guess we have to compare Jackson to Granderson. Granderson has hit .225 with 8 doubles, 7 homers, 23 RBI, 4 triples, 7 SB, and a .300 OBP in 60 games. He missed nearly a month with a groin injury. Jackson has posted a better BA, OBP, and he stole more bases than Granderson so far in '10, but despite the missed time, Granderson has posted better power numbers and tied Jackson in triples. It's a debate who's better, but trading Jackson along with Kennedy and Coke for Granderson does not seem like a good trade for the Yankees. Of course, Granderson could turn it on at any time and make all of us forget about these prospects. But, he hasn't yet, so we have to consider this trade a bad trade for the Yankees right now.
At the trade deadline in '09, the Yankees traded minor league catcher Chris Weems to the Reds in exchange for utility player Jerry Hairston Jr. Weems is hitting just .222 at Low-A Dayton, with 2 doubles, 0 homers, 3 RBI, and a .263 OBP in 14 games. Hairston hit .237 with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 45 gamesfor the Yankees in '09 while playing every outfield position, and every infield position besides 1st base. He's hitting .245 for the Padres in '10, with 8 doubles, 5 homers, 30 RBI, 5 SB, and a .286 OBP in 76 games. This trade was a steal for the Yankees. They traded a struggling prospect for a good major league utility player.
One month before the trade deadline, the Yankees traded minor league LHP Casey Erickson and catching and outfield prospect Eric Fryer in exchange for Eric Hinske, who plays both corner outfield and corner infield positions. Erickson has gone 3-2 for High-A Bradenton, with a 4.02 ERA and 43 K's in 16 relief appearances, 6 starts, and 53.2 IP. Fryer is hitting .274 at High-A Bradenton, with 13 doubles, 7 homers, 34 RBI, 4 triples, 5 SB, and a .373 OBP in 57 games. Hinske hit .226 with the Yankees in '09, with 3 doubles, 7 homers, 14 RBI, and a .316 OBP in 39 games. He really didn't play very much at all. He had just 84 at-bats with the Yankees. With the Braves in '10, he has hit .278 with 16 doubles, 6 homers, 34 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 71 games. This trade was a bad trade for the Yankees. They traded a pretty good prospect in Fryer and a decent prospect in Erickson in exchange for a player who barely played for them.
Five days before the trade deadline in '08, the Yankees traded right-handed pitching prospects Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen, major league right-hander Ross Ohlendorf, and LF prospect Jose Tabata to the Pirates in exchange for left-handed reliever Damaso Marte and OF Xavier Nady. Karsten has gone 2-3 with a 4.71 ERA and 36 K's in 10 start, 6 relief appearances, and 72.2 IP. He went 1-2 with a 7.31 ERA and 12 K's in 4 relief appearances, 1 start, and 16 IP. McCutchen has gone 1-4 for Pittsburgh in '10, with a 8.58 ERA and 16 K's in 6 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 28.1 IP. Ohlendorf has gone 1-6 with a 4.39 ERA and 45 K's in 12 starts and 67.2 IP. He went 11-10 with a 3.92 ERA and 109 K's in 29 starts and 176.2 IP in '09. Tabata is hitting .235 for the Pirates with 6 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, 7 SB, and a .304 OBP in 25 games. Nady hit .270 with 15 doubles, 12 homers, 42 RBI, and a .319 OBP in 66 games with the Yankees between the '08 and '09 seasons. He missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury. Marte has gone 6-2 with a 6.02 ERA in 76 relief appearances with the Yanks from '07 to '10. But, Marte was untouchable in the '09 postseason, giving up no runs on 2 hits in 8 relief appearances and 4 IP. The Yankees traded 4 prospects who Pittsburgh has called up already for a player who was injured most of his time with the team and a reliever who has posted below-average numbers. This trade has been a complete disaster for the Yankees, but at least it gave Marte the opportunity to perform the way he did in the '09 playoffs.
The Yankees have not made good trades the last few years. Among these trades, I would say that only 1 trade (the Hairston trade) was a good trade for the Yankees, 2 trades were bad (Hinske and Nady/Marte) with the Granderson trade seeming to be bad, but it's too early to tell, and the Vazquez trade being a pretty even trade. I hope the Yankees can make better trades at the 2010 trade deadline and during the 2010 offseason.
In December of '09, the Yankees acquired RHP Javier Vazquez and left-handed reliever Boone Logan in exchange for major league OF Melky Cabrera, left-handed pitching prospect Mike Dunn, and right-handed pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino. Melky has hit .257 for the Braves with 12 doubles, 2 homers, 23 RBI, 3 SB, and a .314 OBP in 82 games. Dunn has gone 2-0 at Triple-A Gwinnett, with a 1.11 ERA and 54 K's in 31 relief appearances and 40.2 IP. Vizcaino went 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 66 K's in 12 starts and 69.1 IP for Low-A Rome before being promoted to High-A Myrtle Beach, where he has gone 0-0 with a 4.61 ERA and 11 K's in 3 starts and 13.2 IP. It's too early to tell, but this has been a pretty even trade so far. The Yankees traded a decent major league player and two good prospects for Vazquez, who is starting to pitch like a great pitcher, and a pretty good reliever in Boone Logan.
Also in December of '09, the Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks made a 3-way trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yanks, Edwin Jackson and Yankees RHP prospect Ian Kennedy to the D-backs, and Arizona right-handed relief prospect Mark Schlereth and right-handed major league starter Max Scherzer going to Detroit along with Yankee CF prospect Austin Jackson and major league lefty reliever Phil Coke. Let's look at how Kennedy, Coke, and Jackson have done for their respective teams. Kennedy has gone 3-7 with a 4.16 ERA and 95 K's in 17 starts and 106 IP. He has been a pretty starter for the D-backs. Coke has been a great reliever for Detroit, going 5-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 28 K's in 40 relief appearances and 34.2 IP. Jackson has hit .306 as the regular centerfielder for the Tigers, with 20 doubles, 1 homer, 20 RBI, 4 triples, 13 SB, and a .355 OBP in 75 games. I guess we have to compare Jackson to Granderson. Granderson has hit .225 with 8 doubles, 7 homers, 23 RBI, 4 triples, 7 SB, and a .300 OBP in 60 games. He missed nearly a month with a groin injury. Jackson has posted a better BA, OBP, and he stole more bases than Granderson so far in '10, but despite the missed time, Granderson has posted better power numbers and tied Jackson in triples. It's a debate who's better, but trading Jackson along with Kennedy and Coke for Granderson does not seem like a good trade for the Yankees. Of course, Granderson could turn it on at any time and make all of us forget about these prospects. But, he hasn't yet, so we have to consider this trade a bad trade for the Yankees right now.
At the trade deadline in '09, the Yankees traded minor league catcher Chris Weems to the Reds in exchange for utility player Jerry Hairston Jr. Weems is hitting just .222 at Low-A Dayton, with 2 doubles, 0 homers, 3 RBI, and a .263 OBP in 14 games. Hairston hit .237 with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 45 gamesfor the Yankees in '09 while playing every outfield position, and every infield position besides 1st base. He's hitting .245 for the Padres in '10, with 8 doubles, 5 homers, 30 RBI, 5 SB, and a .286 OBP in 76 games. This trade was a steal for the Yankees. They traded a struggling prospect for a good major league utility player.
One month before the trade deadline, the Yankees traded minor league LHP Casey Erickson and catching and outfield prospect Eric Fryer in exchange for Eric Hinske, who plays both corner outfield and corner infield positions. Erickson has gone 3-2 for High-A Bradenton, with a 4.02 ERA and 43 K's in 16 relief appearances, 6 starts, and 53.2 IP. Fryer is hitting .274 at High-A Bradenton, with 13 doubles, 7 homers, 34 RBI, 4 triples, 5 SB, and a .373 OBP in 57 games. Hinske hit .226 with the Yankees in '09, with 3 doubles, 7 homers, 14 RBI, and a .316 OBP in 39 games. He really didn't play very much at all. He had just 84 at-bats with the Yankees. With the Braves in '10, he has hit .278 with 16 doubles, 6 homers, 34 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 71 games. This trade was a bad trade for the Yankees. They traded a pretty good prospect in Fryer and a decent prospect in Erickson in exchange for a player who barely played for them.
Five days before the trade deadline in '08, the Yankees traded right-handed pitching prospects Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen, major league right-hander Ross Ohlendorf, and LF prospect Jose Tabata to the Pirates in exchange for left-handed reliever Damaso Marte and OF Xavier Nady. Karsten has gone 2-3 with a 4.71 ERA and 36 K's in 10 start, 6 relief appearances, and 72.2 IP. He went 1-2 with a 7.31 ERA and 12 K's in 4 relief appearances, 1 start, and 16 IP. McCutchen has gone 1-4 for Pittsburgh in '10, with a 8.58 ERA and 16 K's in 6 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 28.1 IP. Ohlendorf has gone 1-6 with a 4.39 ERA and 45 K's in 12 starts and 67.2 IP. He went 11-10 with a 3.92 ERA and 109 K's in 29 starts and 176.2 IP in '09. Tabata is hitting .235 for the Pirates with 6 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, 7 SB, and a .304 OBP in 25 games. Nady hit .270 with 15 doubles, 12 homers, 42 RBI, and a .319 OBP in 66 games with the Yankees between the '08 and '09 seasons. He missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury. Marte has gone 6-2 with a 6.02 ERA in 76 relief appearances with the Yanks from '07 to '10. But, Marte was untouchable in the '09 postseason, giving up no runs on 2 hits in 8 relief appearances and 4 IP. The Yankees traded 4 prospects who Pittsburgh has called up already for a player who was injured most of his time with the team and a reliever who has posted below-average numbers. This trade has been a complete disaster for the Yankees, but at least it gave Marte the opportunity to perform the way he did in the '09 playoffs.
The Yankees have not made good trades the last few years. Among these trades, I would say that only 1 trade (the Hairston trade) was a good trade for the Yankees, 2 trades were bad (Hinske and Nady/Marte) with the Granderson trade seeming to be bad, but it's too early to tell, and the Vazquez trade being a pretty even trade. I hope the Yankees can make better trades at the 2010 trade deadline and during the 2010 offseason.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Colin Curtis comes out of nowhere
.666, 3 RBI in 3 at-bats. I realize it's 3 at-bats, but Curtis looks so comfortable out there. He has been so clutch. In 3 games, he already has a 2-run double to break open a game, and an RBI single to get the Yankees within a run. Where did he come from?
I'm not sure if anyone thought that Curtis would make it to the majors so fast. Curtis, a 4th round draft pick out of Arizona State, had a good first season between the Rookie level GCL Yankees and the Short Season-A Staten Island Yankees, hitting .311 with 11 doubles, 2 homers, 22 RBI, 5 SB, and a .374 OBP in 47 games. In '07, Curtis hit .270 with 19 doubles, 8 homers, 41 RBI, 5 SB, 69 runs, and a .339 OBP in 126 games between the High-A Tampa Yankees and the Double-A Trenton Thunder. He looked like a decent hitter at that point, but nothing special.
In '08, Curtis hit .255 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 71 RBI, 6 SB, 68 runs, and a .329 OBP in 132 games at Trenton. His power numbers improved, but his BA and OBP were not good enough. Between Trenton and the Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees in '09, Curtis did even worse, hitting .250 with 24 doubles, 7 homers, 48 RBI, 8 SB, 57 runs, and a .321 OBP in 126 games. His BA and OBP went down every year from '06 to '09. Who would have thought he'd be in the majors just one year later!
At Scranton in '10, Curtis hit .280 with 11 doubles, 0 homers, 12 RBI, 0 SB, 12 runs, and a .357 OBP in 34 games. Apparently the improvement in BA and OBP by Curtis was enough- he was called up to be a lefty hitter against the Arizona bullpen, which consists of all righties. Who thought he would have been called up this year?
Will he be this good in '10? Well, he won't hit .666. Still, he has a shot to make a good impact, similar to Kevin Russo. I would not be surprised if Chad Huffman and not Chad Curtis is sent down to the minors when Marcus Thames comes back from the DL.
I'm not sure if anyone thought that Curtis would make it to the majors so fast. Curtis, a 4th round draft pick out of Arizona State, had a good first season between the Rookie level GCL Yankees and the Short Season-A Staten Island Yankees, hitting .311 with 11 doubles, 2 homers, 22 RBI, 5 SB, and a .374 OBP in 47 games. In '07, Curtis hit .270 with 19 doubles, 8 homers, 41 RBI, 5 SB, 69 runs, and a .339 OBP in 126 games between the High-A Tampa Yankees and the Double-A Trenton Thunder. He looked like a decent hitter at that point, but nothing special.
In '08, Curtis hit .255 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 71 RBI, 6 SB, 68 runs, and a .329 OBP in 132 games at Trenton. His power numbers improved, but his BA and OBP were not good enough. Between Trenton and the Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees in '09, Curtis did even worse, hitting .250 with 24 doubles, 7 homers, 48 RBI, 8 SB, 57 runs, and a .321 OBP in 126 games. His BA and OBP went down every year from '06 to '09. Who would have thought he'd be in the majors just one year later!
At Scranton in '10, Curtis hit .280 with 11 doubles, 0 homers, 12 RBI, 0 SB, 12 runs, and a .357 OBP in 34 games. Apparently the improvement in BA and OBP by Curtis was enough- he was called up to be a lefty hitter against the Arizona bullpen, which consists of all righties. Who thought he would have been called up this year?
Will he be this good in '10? Well, he won't hit .666. Still, he has a shot to make a good impact, similar to Kevin Russo. I would not be surprised if Chad Huffman and not Chad Curtis is sent down to the minors when Marcus Thames comes back from the DL.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
What's wrong with Burnett?
Burnett got off to an incredible start this year. After 6 starts, he was 4-0 with a 1.99 ERA. Batters were hitting just .245 against him. In the 9 starts since then, he's been 2-6 with a 7.11 ERA. Batters have been hitting .304 against him during this time period. To cap it off, Burnett has gone 0-4 with a 10.35 in his last 4 starts, and 0-2 with a 15.95 ERA in his last 2. Batters have hit .335 against him in his last 4 starts, and .405 against him in his last 2 starts. Yeah, that's right, .405. Every batter on the Phillies and Diamondbacks has turned into Ted Williams against him. What's going on?
For the whole year, there has been a world of difference between home and away for Burnett. At home, he has gone 3-2 with a 3.46 ERA. On the road, he has gone 3-4 with a 5.85 ERA. That's obviously a problem. Are the opposing crowds getting to him?
He doesn't appear to be comfortable unless he has a big lead. He has gone 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his starts when the Yankees have scored 0-2 runs for him, 2-4 with a 6.53 ERA when given 3-5 runs, and 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA when given 6 or more runs of run support.
He also never seems to settle in during his starts. After hitting just .349 against Burnett in the 1st inning, batters hit just .211 against him in the 2nd inning. He's settled in, right? Wrong. Batters hit .315 against him in the 3rd inning. Then, after hitting just .241 against him in the 4th inning, they hit .300 against him in the 5th, .297 in the 6th, and .276 in the 7th. Then batters hit just .000 against him in the 8th. Maybe you can say that he settles down in the 8th, but that's way too late in the game. To put this all in different terms, batters hit .295 against him in their first at-bat, .267 in their 2nd, .290 in their 3rd at-bat, and .211 in their 4th at bat. It's reasonable for him to allow a .349 BA in the 1st inning, but he really needs to consistently settle in after that.
So, without talking about mechanics or anything like that, the 3 things that Burnett needs to fix are pitching away from Yankee Stadium, getting comfortable no matter the score, and settling in after the 1st inning. If he can fix those problems, he can be a very good pitcher.
For the whole year, there has been a world of difference between home and away for Burnett. At home, he has gone 3-2 with a 3.46 ERA. On the road, he has gone 3-4 with a 5.85 ERA. That's obviously a problem. Are the opposing crowds getting to him?
He doesn't appear to be comfortable unless he has a big lead. He has gone 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his starts when the Yankees have scored 0-2 runs for him, 2-4 with a 6.53 ERA when given 3-5 runs, and 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA when given 6 or more runs of run support.
He also never seems to settle in during his starts. After hitting just .349 against Burnett in the 1st inning, batters hit just .211 against him in the 2nd inning. He's settled in, right? Wrong. Batters hit .315 against him in the 3rd inning. Then, after hitting just .241 against him in the 4th inning, they hit .300 against him in the 5th, .297 in the 6th, and .276 in the 7th. Then batters hit just .000 against him in the 8th. Maybe you can say that he settles down in the 8th, but that's way too late in the game. To put this all in different terms, batters hit .295 against him in their first at-bat, .267 in their 2nd, .290 in their 3rd at-bat, and .211 in their 4th at bat. It's reasonable for him to allow a .349 BA in the 1st inning, but he really needs to consistently settle in after that.
So, without talking about mechanics or anything like that, the 3 things that Burnett needs to fix are pitching away from Yankee Stadium, getting comfortable no matter the score, and settling in after the 1st inning. If he can fix those problems, he can be a very good pitcher.
Monday, June 7, 2010
Jon Weber: a story of perseverence that just didn't work out
You might have heard of Jon Weber. He is a player who had an incredible spring training this year for the Yankees, but didn't make the team. That's been the story of his entire career- just missed.
Jon Weber was signed by the Reds in 1999 as an undrafted free agent out of Texas Tech University. He just missed being drafted. He started out in the Reds' Rookie ball team, the Billings Mustangs. He hit .238 with 6 doubles, 5 homers, 17 RBI, 16 runs, and a .365 OBP in 22 games. He showed an ability to be a good run producer, but his .238 average was too low. In 2000, he hit just .221 in 1087 games with the Low-A Clinton Lumber Kings, with 14 doubles, 6 homers, 34 RBI, 8 SB, 60 runs, and a .333 OBP. His run producing ability was his only good sign in '99, but he couldn't even do that in 2000, so the Reds released him. Weber signed with the Canton Crocodiles of the independent Frontier League. He did much better with Canton in '01, hitting .307 with 15 doubles, 18 homers, 69 RBI, 16 SB, 60 runs, and a .382 OBP in 82 games. For some reason, no major league team signed him and instead he signed with the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks of the independent Northern League. In '02 with the Redhawks, Weber hit .296 with 30 doubles, 13 homers, 52 RBI, 11 SB, and a .356 OBP in 90 games. No major league team signed Weber again. I find it really amazing that he didn't give up right at this point and pursue another career, but he kept persevering and kept playing.
In '03, Weber started the year with the Redhawks once again, hitting .309 with 8 doubles, 11 homers, 48 RBI, 14 SB, 46 runs, and a .408 OBP in 52 games. Finally, Weber was signed by a major league team, the Oakland A's, and he was assigned to the High-A Modesto A's. He did very well in 35 games with Modesto, hitting .361 with 10 doubles, 7 homers, 38 RBI, 2 SB (Oakland's philosophy is Moneyball), 28 runs, and a .394 OBP. He averaged over 1 RBI per game with Modesto, which is very good. The next year in '04, Weber was assigned to the Double-A Midland RockHounds to start the year. He hit .280 in 111 games at Midland, with 24 doubles, 15 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, 64 runs, and a .356 OBP. He then was promoted to the Triple-A Sacremento River Cats and hit .341 with 4 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, 9 runs, and a .383 OBP in 19 games. Still, the A's got rid of him and he signed with the Dodgers. He was assigned to the Double-A Jacksonville Suns. In '05 with the Suns, he hit .300 with 27 doubles, 11 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, 81 runs, and a .369 OBP in 117 games. He also made his first career appearance on the mound, giving up 1 run on no hits and 3 walks in .2 innings for a 13.50 ERA. Weber promoted to the Triple-A Las Vegas 51's in '06, but he hit just .258 with 18 doubles, 2 homers, 31 RBI, 9 SB, 39 runs, and a .333 OBP in 82 games. He was released, and he signed with the Diamondbacks organization. He played much better with the Tuscon Sidewinders, Arizona's Triple-A franchise than he did with the 51's. He hit .321 with 18 doubles, 5 homers, 27 RBI, 26 runs, and a .374 OBP in 46 games. He was not retained by the D-backs, and he returned to the independent Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks for the '07 season. Weber was on the Triple-A teams of 3 different major league franchises in a span of 3 years, but he still wasn't called up to the majors. He just missed again.
In '07 with the Redhawks, Weber hit .283 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 10 RBI, 2 SB, 10 runs, and a .371 OBP in 16 games before being signed by the Rangers and being assigned to their High-A team, the Bakersfield Blaze. Weber hit .356 with the Blaze with 14 doubles, 5 homers, 25 RBI, 9 SB, 34 runs, and a .416 OBP in 37 games before being traded to the Devil Rays for cash and assigned to their Triple-A franchise, the Durham Bulls. Weber hit .265 as a member of the Bulls, with 5 doubles, 3 homers, 21 RBI, 20 runs, and a .360 OBP in 39 games. Weber, who was 30 years old at that time, was retained by the Rays organization after the year (they had just changed their name). In '08 with Durham, Weber once again hit .265, but this time with 24 doubles, 13 homers, 51 RBI, 11 SB, 58 runs, and a .354 OBP in 108 games. Still, the Rays kept Weber for the '09 season. In '09, Weber had his best year since '04, hitting .302 with 46 doubles, 14 homers, 69 RBI, 63 runs, and a .382 OBP. Despite his great year, he was not called up to the majors. After the year he signed a minor league contract with the Yankees.
Weber had a spring training to remember in '10. He hit .452 with 4 doubles and 6 RBI in 18 games. He even won the James P. Dawson award for the best Yankee rookie (remember, Weber still hasn't made the majors) at spring training. But, being a left handed hitter, he didn't make the team. Just missed.
One day. I hope that day comes for him. He also wasn't called up after Curtis Granderson was injured, giving way to Greg Golson. So far in '10 with the Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre Yankees, Weber has hit .258 with 7 doubles, 0 homers, 11 RBI, 18 runs, and a .333 OBP in 47 games.
"Best time in my life and my career that I've ever had. I made it to the final week with the New York Yankees. I'm not righthanded, I'm lefthanded. I have to stay positive, stay focused and hopefully one day I'll get the call."- Jon Weber on his amazing 2010 spring training
One day. I hope that one day comes for him. It won't be with the Yankees- he was released on June 2nd.
Jon Weber was signed by the Reds in 1999 as an undrafted free agent out of Texas Tech University. He just missed being drafted. He started out in the Reds' Rookie ball team, the Billings Mustangs. He hit .238 with 6 doubles, 5 homers, 17 RBI, 16 runs, and a .365 OBP in 22 games. He showed an ability to be a good run producer, but his .238 average was too low. In 2000, he hit just .221 in 1087 games with the Low-A Clinton Lumber Kings, with 14 doubles, 6 homers, 34 RBI, 8 SB, 60 runs, and a .333 OBP. His run producing ability was his only good sign in '99, but he couldn't even do that in 2000, so the Reds released him. Weber signed with the Canton Crocodiles of the independent Frontier League. He did much better with Canton in '01, hitting .307 with 15 doubles, 18 homers, 69 RBI, 16 SB, 60 runs, and a .382 OBP in 82 games. For some reason, no major league team signed him and instead he signed with the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks of the independent Northern League. In '02 with the Redhawks, Weber hit .296 with 30 doubles, 13 homers, 52 RBI, 11 SB, and a .356 OBP in 90 games. No major league team signed Weber again. I find it really amazing that he didn't give up right at this point and pursue another career, but he kept persevering and kept playing.
In '03, Weber started the year with the Redhawks once again, hitting .309 with 8 doubles, 11 homers, 48 RBI, 14 SB, 46 runs, and a .408 OBP in 52 games. Finally, Weber was signed by a major league team, the Oakland A's, and he was assigned to the High-A Modesto A's. He did very well in 35 games with Modesto, hitting .361 with 10 doubles, 7 homers, 38 RBI, 2 SB (Oakland's philosophy is Moneyball), 28 runs, and a .394 OBP. He averaged over 1 RBI per game with Modesto, which is very good. The next year in '04, Weber was assigned to the Double-A Midland RockHounds to start the year. He hit .280 in 111 games at Midland, with 24 doubles, 15 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, 64 runs, and a .356 OBP. He then was promoted to the Triple-A Sacremento River Cats and hit .341 with 4 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, 9 runs, and a .383 OBP in 19 games. Still, the A's got rid of him and he signed with the Dodgers. He was assigned to the Double-A Jacksonville Suns. In '05 with the Suns, he hit .300 with 27 doubles, 11 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, 81 runs, and a .369 OBP in 117 games. He also made his first career appearance on the mound, giving up 1 run on no hits and 3 walks in .2 innings for a 13.50 ERA. Weber promoted to the Triple-A Las Vegas 51's in '06, but he hit just .258 with 18 doubles, 2 homers, 31 RBI, 9 SB, 39 runs, and a .333 OBP in 82 games. He was released, and he signed with the Diamondbacks organization. He played much better with the Tuscon Sidewinders, Arizona's Triple-A franchise than he did with the 51's. He hit .321 with 18 doubles, 5 homers, 27 RBI, 26 runs, and a .374 OBP in 46 games. He was not retained by the D-backs, and he returned to the independent Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks for the '07 season. Weber was on the Triple-A teams of 3 different major league franchises in a span of 3 years, but he still wasn't called up to the majors. He just missed again.
In '07 with the Redhawks, Weber hit .283 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 10 RBI, 2 SB, 10 runs, and a .371 OBP in 16 games before being signed by the Rangers and being assigned to their High-A team, the Bakersfield Blaze. Weber hit .356 with the Blaze with 14 doubles, 5 homers, 25 RBI, 9 SB, 34 runs, and a .416 OBP in 37 games before being traded to the Devil Rays for cash and assigned to their Triple-A franchise, the Durham Bulls. Weber hit .265 as a member of the Bulls, with 5 doubles, 3 homers, 21 RBI, 20 runs, and a .360 OBP in 39 games. Weber, who was 30 years old at that time, was retained by the Rays organization after the year (they had just changed their name). In '08 with Durham, Weber once again hit .265, but this time with 24 doubles, 13 homers, 51 RBI, 11 SB, 58 runs, and a .354 OBP in 108 games. Still, the Rays kept Weber for the '09 season. In '09, Weber had his best year since '04, hitting .302 with 46 doubles, 14 homers, 69 RBI, 63 runs, and a .382 OBP. Despite his great year, he was not called up to the majors. After the year he signed a minor league contract with the Yankees.
Weber had a spring training to remember in '10. He hit .452 with 4 doubles and 6 RBI in 18 games. He even won the James P. Dawson award for the best Yankee rookie (remember, Weber still hasn't made the majors) at spring training. But, being a left handed hitter, he didn't make the team. Just missed.
One day. I hope that day comes for him. He also wasn't called up after Curtis Granderson was injured, giving way to Greg Golson. So far in '10 with the Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre Yankees, Weber has hit .258 with 7 doubles, 0 homers, 11 RBI, 18 runs, and a .333 OBP in 47 games.
"Best time in my life and my career that I've ever had. I made it to the final week with the New York Yankees. I'm not righthanded, I'm lefthanded. I have to stay positive, stay focused and hopefully one day I'll get the call."- Jon Weber on his amazing 2010 spring training
One day. I hope that one day comes for him. It won't be with the Yankees- he was released on June 2nd.
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