A tale of two trades: Randy Johnson's tenure in the Bronx

Does everyone remember when Randy Johnson was traded to the Yankees? It was a critical time period for them, right after the sheer disappointment and failure of the 2004 postseason. So what did they do? They traded for Johnson. Who did they trade? Javier Vazquez, Dioner Navarro, and Brad Halsey. We all know why they traded Vazquez... does game 7 ring a bell? Navarro was a catching prospect who had already made a cameo in the majors at that time, but he hit just .263 in the minors in '04, and the Yankees already had Posada. Halsey, the one you probably haven't heard of, was a lefty starter coming off an outstanding season at Triple-A in which he went 11-4 with 2.62 ERA in 23 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 144 IP. He struck out just 108 (6.8 per 9), but walked just 37 (2.3 per 9). He also made 8 appearances in the majors, including 7 starts, but he posted a 6.47 ERA (3 good starts, 4 bad starts). The trade to get Johnson was certainly a reasonable one for the Yanks. Although he was already 41 years old, he was also coming off a great year himself, having gone 16-14 with a 2.60 ERA and 290 K's in 35 starts and 245.1 IP for a terrible D-backs team.


As you probably remember, Johnson's tenure in the Bronx had mix reviews. In '05, he had a good season anchoring the Yankee staff, but not a great season, going 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA and 'just' 211 K's in 34 starts and 225.2 IP. No only Yankee starter that threw 200 innings, won 15 games, and or 150 batters. He was the one stabilizing force in a season riddled by injuries to starting pitchers (this was the Aaron Small/Shawn Chacon year). In 2005 though, Johnson was not anywhere near as effective. He won 17 games again, going 17-11, but with a 5.00 ERA and just 172 K's in 33 starts and 205 IP. After the year, the Yankees traded Johnson back to Arizona in exchange for Luis Vizcaino, Ross Ohlendorf, Steven Jackson, and Alberto Gonzalez. Vizcaino had a nice year as a reliever in '05, posting a 4.30 ERA, but in 77 appearances. He left as a free agent following the year. (He recently re-signed with the Yankees.) Ohlendorf pitched very badly for the Yankees for parts of two seasons for the Yanks (6.02 ERA), but has been a good pitcher since being traded to Pittsburgh, posting a 12-24 record despite a 4.15 ERA. Jackson never pitched for the Yankees, but has posted a 4.31 ERA for the Pirates as a reliever. The Yankees traded Gonzalez to Washington after he hit just .152 for them. None of the acquired players made a difference for the Yankees long-term.

Johnson posted a 3.89 ERA for Arizona from '07 to '08. After getting his 300th win while playing for the Giants in 2010, he retired. He will certainly be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. That being said, his 2-year tenure with the Yankees showed that he was really taking advantage of pitching in the NL West. His ERA was much better in the NL (2.92) than in the NL (3.60) for his career. But, he was still a good enough pitcher to survive even in the tough AL East and win 34 games in two seasons.

Randy Johnson's two year tenure in the Bronx was not successful, but had the Yankees not acquired him, they would not have made the playoffs in '05. Even though he struggled in the AL East, he still found ways to win ballgames and help the team win. He should be credited for lasting his age 41 and age 42 seasons in the AL East, rather than have his 4.37 ERA during that time period held against him. Even in the twilight of his career, he was still able to get the job done with all the pressure in the world on him under the bright lights of New York.

Comparing the 1996 and 2009 Yankee championship teams

When I first thought of the idea for this post, I thought that the 2009 Yankees would be so different be so different from the 1996 Yankees. Really, when you look at the big picture, that's not the case. Let's compare them position by position to illustrate that point.

C: Joe Girardi vs. Jorge Posada
Before you say anything, let's compare the salaries: 2.325 million dollars vs. 13.1 million dollars. Sure, Girardi was signed as a free agent, but to be a role player. Also, the players themselves couldn't be more different. Girardi hit .294 with 22 doubles, 2 homers, 45 RBI, 13 SB, and a .346 OBP in 124 games. He also played well defensively, posting a .996 Fld% at catcher, and a 25% CS%. Posada in contrast, hit .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, 1 SB (had to point that out), and a .363 OBP in 111 games. He posted just a .990 Fld%, although he did post a 28% CS%. Girardi was a scrappy player who got on base and played well defensively. Posada was a power hitter who had trouble just stopping errant pitches (Girardi had 10 passed balls compared to Posada's 31). Going by WAR, Posada had a much better season. But, was he worth almost 11 million dollars more? Either way, both players played important roles for their teams.

1B: Tino Martinez vs. Mark Teixeira
Let's look at the salaries again. 2.3 million dollars for Tino compared to 20.625 million dollars for Teix. Tino and Teix was much more similar than you would think based on their salaries. Tino hit .292 with 28 doubles, 25 homers, 117 RBI, 82 runs, and a .364 OBP in 155 games. Teix hit that same .292 with 43 doubles, 39 homers, 122 RBI, 103 runs, and a .383 OBP in 156 games. Tino posted a .996 Fld% at 1B compared to Teixeira's .997. First base might be the one position where both teams were very similar. Teixeira was a better player, but not by that much. Obviously, Teix isn't worth over 18 million dollars more than Tino. Both teams filled a very similar role for their respective teams- a power-hitting first baseman in the middle of the lineup who also plays well defensively.

2B: Mariano Duncan vs. Robinson Cano
The salary gap here isn't that far: 845,000 dollars for Duncan compared to 6 million dollars for Cano. They certainly had very different seasons. Duncan hit .340 with 34 doubles, 8 homers, 56 RBI, and just a .352 OBP (9 walks all year) in 109 games.Cano hit .320 with 48 doubles, 25 homers, 85 RBI, 103 runs, and a .352 OBP (30 walks) in 161 games. Defensively, Cano was far superior, posting a .984 Fld% at Duncan's .973. Duncan was an incredible hitter for average that had few other skills, while Cano was an amazing hitter who hit for average and power in addition to being a Gold Glover defensively. Cano was significantly better, but Duncan filled a nice niche for the 1996 team.

3B: Wade Boggs vs. Alex Rodriguez
2.05 million dollars versus 33 million. Oh my gosh. Boggs and A-rod are as different as night and day. Boggs hit .311 with 29 doubles, 2 homers, 41 RBI, 80 runs, 1 SB, and a .389 OBP in 132 games. A-rod hit .286 with 17 doubles, 30 homers, 100 RBI, 78 runs, 14 SB, and a .402 OBP in 124 games. Boggs posted a .974 Fld% at third base compared to .967 by A-rod. Boggs is a Hall of Famer because he was an amazing pure hitter. A-rod was once a good pure hitter (215 hits in 1996 and 213 in 1998), but is now known strictly as a power hitter. Boggs was a very good role player at that point in his career, while A-rod was still a superstar when he came back from injury. They contributed very different aspects to their teams; Boggs was a top-of-the-lineup kind of player who was a table-setter for the big hitters. A-rod, obviously, is a big hitter.

SS: Derek Jeter vs. Derek Jeter
The salary comparison isn't fair- Jeter was a rookie in '96 so of course he didn't a lot of money! He made just 160 thousand dollars compared to 21.6 million in 2009. Let's compare Jeter's seasons. He certainly had two Jeterian seasons. He hit .314 with 25 doubles, 10 homers, 78 RBI, 104 runs, 183 hits, 14 SB, and a .370 OBP in 157 games on his way to the AL Rookie of the Year. Like most rookie shortstops, he did struggle defensively, posting a .969 Fld% (although his range was must better than it is now). In '09, he also had a great season, hitting .334 with 27 doubles, 18 homers, 66 RBI, 107 runs, 212 hits, 30 SB, and a .406 OBP in 153 games. He posted a .986 Fld%. Jeter was a great player both back then and in '09 (maybe not really anymore).

LF: Gerald Williams/Tim Raines vs. Johnny Damon
Looking at the salaries, Damon easily made more than Williams and Raines combined. Raines made 2.1 million dollars and Williams made '200 thousand while Damon made 13 million. Williams had a below-average season, hitting .270 with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, 7 SB, and just a .319 OBP while posting just a .978 Fld% in LF, which was just slightly below league average, but you would expect more from a player who played most of his career in centerfield. To make things worse, he only had 1 assist. He was traded to the Brewers in August (through waivers). Raines meanwhile, was sidelined most of the year by a hamstring tear, but came back after Williams was traded. He did well, hitting .284 with 10 doubles, 9 homers, 33 RBI, 45 runs, and a .383 OBP in 59 games. He also posted an above average .988 Fld% in LF, with 3 assists. In 2009, Damon had a great season offensively, hitting .282 with 36 doubles, 24 homers, 82 RBI, 107 runs, 12 SB, and a .365 OBP in 143 games. But, he posted an astronomically below average .978 Fld% in LF (league average was .987). This guy was playing centerfield the year before! Anyway, Damon was certainly better than Gim Waines (Williams + Raines). But again, was he worth 10 million dollars more?

CF: Bernie Williams vs. Melky Cabrera
In terms of salaries, Bernie made 3 million dollars to Melky's 1.4 million. Bernie was certainly double as good as Melky. He hit .305 with 26 doubles, 29 homers, 102 RBI, 108 runs, 17 SB, and a .391 OBP in 143 games. He did post just a .986 Fld% in centerfield, which was below average, but he had 10 outfield assists, third in the league. He had an outstanding season. Not that Melky was bad at all. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .990 Fld% in the outfield, including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF, but he posted just 3 assists. In a battle of arbitration-eligible players (Bernie won in a hearing), Bernie was certainly a far superior player, although Melky filled an important role for the 2009 Yankees.

RF: Paul O'Neill vs. Nick Swisher
O'Neill and Swisher happened to make nearly the same amount of money, with O'Neill earning 5.3 million dollars and Swish earning 5.4. Both players had good seasons. O'Neill hit .302 with 35 doubles, 19 homers, 91 RBI, 89 runs, and a .411 OBP in 150 games. Swish hit .249 with 35 doubles, 29 homers, 82 RBI, 84 runs, and a .371 OBP in 150 games. O'Neill was superb defensively, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld% at RF with 7 assists, while Swish was still OK at .983 with 7 assists as well. They gave similar contributions to their teams (O'Neill was better), so they certainly deserved similar salaries.

DH: Ruben Sierra/Darryl Strawberry/Cecil Fielder vs. Hideki Matsui
The three headed monster at DH made a total of 6.5 million dollars, while Matsui made double that, 13 million dollars. Ruben Sierra was the DH for the '96 Yankees until July. But, he performed so poorly (.258 BA, .327 OBP, 11 homers in 96 games), that the Yankees traded him for Cecil Fielder at the deadline, and acquired Darryl Strawbery. (Fielder was actually in the middle of his last monster season, as he would go on to hit 39 homers and drive in 119 runs.) Decil Fieldberry hit 24 homers in a combined 116 games, hitting .261. (Darryl played a bit in the outfield and Fielder played some first base). All 3 players combined hit .260 with 35 homers and 125 RBI in 212 games. Matsui himself hit .274 with 28 homers and 90 RBI in 142 games. Advantage 2009. Might as well pay double for some stability rather than RubenDecil Sierra-Fieldberry. (Thank you BenJarvus Green-Ellis.)

Rotation:
The 1996 Yankees had a rotation of Andy Pettitte (21-8, 3.87 ERA), Kenny Rodgers (12-8, 4.68), Dwight Gooden (11-7, 5.01), Jimmy Key (12-11, 4.68), David Cone, who missed much of the year with an aneurysm (7-2, 2.88), and Ramiro Mendoza, who replaced him (4-5, 6.79). They earned a total of 11.467 million dollars. The 2009 Yankee rotation consisted of CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37), AJ Burnett (13-9, 4.04), Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16), Joba Chamberlain (9-6, 4.75), and Chien-Ming Wang/Sergio Mitre/Chad Gaudin (combined 6-9, 6.63, although Gaudin went 2-0, 3.43). They made 42 million, 718 thousand, 289 dollars. That's almost 4 times as much as '96. But their ERA was better, 4.40 compared to 4.56, but not THAT much better!

Closer: John Wetteland vs. Mariano Rivera
There's no comparison. Rivera earned so much more (15 million dollars to 4 million), but he pitched much better. He posted a 1.76 ERA and 44 saves compared to Wetteland's still great 2.83 ERA and 43 saves. Rivera isn't 11 million dollars better, but he certainly was (and is at least arguably) the best closer in baseball.

I couldn't compare everybody, but these are the cores of those teams. Salaries are certainly different now from then, so the salary comparison is not really fair. Still, the 2009 Yankees had five times the payroll of '96. But, they were both built off of free agents with some amount homegrown talent mixed in. That's the Yankee formula now, and it won't change anytime soon. The Yankees, even with their great talent in the minors right now, do not have a homegrown dynasty coming. No matter how great the prospects are, only the very best will make it, and the rest of the roster will be made up of players, superstars, and some role players, acquired via free agency and trades. Many of the second-best prospects might have great careers with other teams, but it just won't work out for them with the Yankees. Even after A-rod's, Teixeira's, and CC's contracts expire, we all know there will be new big contracts handed out. If they do their moves right, we'll see another dynasty coming soon.

Looking back at the great career of Bernie Williams

Bernie Williams is not a Hall of Famer. But, he will always be remembered as a great Yankee and a winner. He appeared in 121 postseason games. When you go through his postseason stats, they're staggering. Just a .275 BA, but with 29 doubles, 22 homers, 80 RBI, and a .375 OBP in 121 games. Those would be darn good stats for a full season! In terms of postseason stats, he's second to Derek Jeter in games played, at-bats, plate appearances, runs scored, hits, total bases, singles, and doubles for the most all time. He's second in homers behind Manny Ramirez and still holds the all-time record for RBI. He's one of the best postseason performers of the wild card era.

He wasn't too shabby in the regular season either. He had a .297 career BA with 287 homers and a .381 OBP. He averaged 18 homers and 79 RBI per season in his career- not legendary stats, but he certainly was a huge part of every Yankee team he played for until the very end. He was a 5-time all star, a 4-time Gold Glover, and he won the American League batting title in 1998. For a time, from 1995 to 2002, Williams was one of the best players in baseball. He hit 194 of his homers, and averaged a .321 BA, 24 homers, 102 RBI, and a .406 OBP per season. After that point, like any regular player, he declined. But even as the clock was winding down on his career, Williams was still a productive player, hitting just a .263 BA from '03 to the end of his career in '06, but still averaged 15 homers, 65 RBI, and a .346 OBP. He played his last game shortly after his 38th birthday and later retired after a lengthy contract dispute. Speaking of the contract dispute after the '06 season, it perfectly exemplified Williams as a person. He was unhappy when the Yankees did not offer him a major league contract, but has since mended his relationship with the Yankees.

On the back of my dad's 1999 Yankees World Champions shirt, it has Bernie Williams' number 51. That's the way we'll remember him. He was a great player, a great person, and most of all, a winner.

Greinke to Milwaukee

I am completely shocked. I didn't think the Yankees would get him, but when was the last time the Milwaukee Brewers made such a big trade? Anyway, let's review the trade. The trade is RHP Zack Greinke and SS Yuniesky Betancourt for SS Alcides Escobar, CF Lorenzo Cain, and RHP's Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi.

Greinke, after his dazzling 2009, did not put up great numbers in '10, going 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA and 181 K's in 33 starts and 220 IP. But, a closer look at his stats certainly shows you something interesting. After posting a 2.56 ERA in April (somehow going 0-2), he posted a 4.37 ERA from May until the end of July (although his record was 7-8). Every pitcher has bad stretches, and a 4.37 ERA isn't even that bad. Greinke then proceeded to post a 3.16 ERA in August, improving his ERA to 3.81. But then, he posted a 5.92 ERA in September. Still, he posted a 2-3 record that month. How? Well, he won the 2 games he pitched against teams with winning records, and posted 3 losses and a no-decision in his other starts. He just got bored. Being on the Royals can do that to you. Milwaukee is getting an amazing pitcher who will tear up the National League. You might even be able to make an argument that Milwaukee's top 4 in their rotation (Greinke, Yovani Gollardo, Shaun Marcum, and Randy Wolf) if the second best top 4 in the NL behind you-know-who, the South Beach of starting pitching, Philadelphia. It would not surprise me or anyone if Greinke finishes at least a solid third in the Cy Young award voting in the NL behind if anyone, Halladay and Lee.

Everyone likes Yuniesky Betancourt, right? Of course not. Betancourt is one of those players who starts on bad teams. Good thing the Brewers have Craig Counsell, right? (They also have a SS prospect named Luis Cruz who did well at Triple-A last year.) They better not start Betancourt, who has played 9 games at 2nd base during his career. So, how bad is Betancourt? At first glance, not so bad. He hit .259 in '10 with 29 doubles, 16 homers, and 78 RBI. Isn't that pretty good? Well, not really when you post a .288 OBP. His career high in OBP is .310. His career OBP is under .300 (.296). You just can't have a below-.300 OBP and expect to be a regular on a good team. The thing is though, how did he manage to drive in 78 run if he's such a bad player. The answer: pure luck. He hit .257 with runners in scoring position on the Royals! He just got lucky and had 152 at-bats in those situations. He had just 39 hits, but drove in 61 runs. The Brewers will certainly not give him that many at-bats (he had 588 overall in '10). Betancourt's 78 RBI were certainly a fluke that he will not replicate in 2011, even if he were to be given enough at-bats. And that's just his hitting! He posted a .974 Fld% at SS in '10, committing 18 errors (3 times as many as Derek Jeter). The league average Fld% at SS was .973. Even though he did show somewhat better range than Jeter, that's just bad. Betancourt is a bad player. The Royals are lucky to get rid of him.

Alcides Escobar was supposed to be the Brewers' shortstop for a long time. Well, that certainly didn't happen. Escobar appeared to have such a promising future after hitting .306, .328, and a .298 in the minors '07, '08, and '09 while stealing 98 bases. He got his chance in the majors in '10, but he just wasn't good enough. He hit .325 with 14 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, just 10 stolen bases, and, get this, the same OBP as Yuniesky Betancourt had in '10, .288. That's bad. I did withhold the fact that he did have 10 triples, third in the NL. Still, he certainly was a huge disappointment. And don't get me started on his defense. He posted a .967 Fld% at SS (the NL average was .971), with Derek Jeter-esque range (I mean that in a bad way). The Royals better hope and pray that Escobar develops into the player that his minor league stats 'said' he was going to be.

Cain had an exceptional year between the minors and majors in '10. He hit .317 in 84 minor league games with 11 doubles, 3 homers, 27 RBI, 9 triples, 27 SB, and a .402 OBP. He then hit .306 in the majors with 11 doubles, 1 homer, 13 RBI, 1 triple, 7 SB, and a .348 OBP in 43 major league games. He posted a .972 Fld% in CF in the minors, with 4 outfield assists, while posting a .980 Fld% with 2 assists in the majors. Cain's outfield assists count seems to be tied with his fielding percentage: in four minor league seasons, Cain posted a fielding percentage of .990 or better, but had no more than 3 outfield assists in any of those seasons. In the four minor league seasons besides '10 that Cain posted an ERA under .990 , Cain had no fewer than 8 outfield assists, including a ridiculous 15 outfield assists in 2006 (he did post just a .960 Fld% that season). Cain has a lot of potential and could be a fixture in the Royals outfield for a long time.

As if I haven't talking about enough misfits in this post, let me talk about Jeremy Jeffress. He has been suspended not once, but twice, for using marijuana. Simply put, that's not good. But, the righty reliever did well in both the minors and majors, posting a 2.23 ERA and 4 saves in 23 minor league appearances and a 2.70 ERA in 10 appearances for the Brewers. He could certainly be the next Royals closer after Joakim Soria leaves. They just need to keep him out of trouble.

Odorizzi is a righy starter that unlike the other players in this deal, has never played above Short Season-A ball. But, he did go 7-3 in '10 with a 3.43 ERA and 135 K's (10.1 K/9) in 20 starts, 3 relief appearances, and 120.2 IP at SS-A Wisconsin. He certainly has potential, and could be 'the next Greinke in a couple of years' (what the Royals stated they wanted) if he pans out.

This is an interesting trade for the Royals. Potentially, they could get four star players from this trade. But, there's a good chance that Escobar and Odorizzi don't pan out. It's a calculated gamble, and they better hope they're right. This is a great trade for the Brewers. For the prospects gave up, they all had reasons to trade them. Escobar was a disappointment, and they have Luis Cruz. For Cain, they have Carlos Gomez. Jeffress certainly has his problems, and you never know with Odorizzi, so it may have been worth it to trade him while his value was high. In return for these prospects, the Brewers got a star pitcher to cement their pitching staff in Greinke and will now be contenders in the NL Central and will certainly have an opportunity to win it.

A brief thought on Cliff Lee going to the Phillies

Everybody is shocked. How the heck did Cliff Lee turn down both the Yankees' money and the Rangers' proximity to his home an his great experience there this past season? Well, after thinking about it, there is a simple reason that Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies. Lee's plan was to go to Philadelphia the whole time. The only question was whether the Phillies would make an offer that was anywhere near the offers of the Yankees and Phillies. They did, so he signed. But, what was Lee's reasoning behind the move? He never wanted to leave. Lee and his wife loved Philadelphia. Lee had spent just half a season there, but was already talking about a contract extension after the season. But, then the Phillies traded for Roy Halladay, and apparently because of budget issues (how ironic!), they were forced to trade Lee to Seattle. Lee was upset, but he appeared to move on after the season started. He then got traded to Texas, led them to a World Series, and started saying 'we' when referring to the team. Acting like that to the Mariners and Rangers was just a negotiation strategy. He even had his wife look for a house in New York with CC Sabathia's wife, possibly for an ulterior motive as well. Acting like such a 'darling' with the other teams made them think they had a chance at signing him (the Mariners tried to sign Lee to an extension) to up the Phillies' offer. It was a great a move by Lee and his agent, but as a Yankee fan I hate it, and so should all other Yankee fans and all Ranger fans. He used us all.

Crawford to Boston

OF Carl Crawford has agreed to a 7 year, 142 million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. That gives the Red Sox four starting outfielders (Crawford, Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew, and Jacoby Ellsbury), so Ellsbury is about to be traded, probably to San Diego as the player to be named in the Adrian Gonzalez deal.

First, let's look at this deal from Boston's standpoint. They're getting one of the best outfielders in baseball. Crawford had a ridiculous season in '10, hitting .307 with 30 doubles, 19 homers, 90 RBI, 13 triples, 110 runs, 184 hits, 47 SB (10 CS), and a .356 in 154 games for the Rays. His 13 triples led the league, while his 47 stolen bases were third, and his .307 BA was 9th. To put his stats in perspective, he had the same BA as Ryan Zimmerman, 1 less homer than Victor Martinez, as many stolen bases as Brett Gardner (1 more CS than him), and 1 less run than Miguel Cabrera (and Derek Jeter). He also posted a .994 Fld% in LF with 7 outfield assists, good enough to win a Gold Glove. He's just an amazing player, and he will be worth every penny of the 142 million.

How about Ellsbury though? Is Crawford that much better than him? Well, first of all, Ellsbury couldn't stay healthy in '10. That's obviously a problem. Even ignoring the injuries, let's look at his 2009, his best season. He hit .301 with 27 doubles, 8 homers, 60 RBI, 10 triples, 94 runs, 188 hits, 70 SB (12 CS), and a .355 OBP in 153 games. But, the more advanced metrics say that Ellsbury played very badly defensively in centerfield that season. More notable to me is his -9.7 UZR (9.7 runs below average Ultimate Zone Rating). He had a 21.3 UZR in '08, the year before. Crawford by the way, had an 18.5 UZR in '10. (Gardner posted a 21.9 UZR to lead all AL left fielders in '10.) Ellsbury just wasn't that great of a player for Boston. But, is he so bad to warrant the Red Sox paying Crawford about 18 million dollars more than Ellsbury will make in '10? No. Good job by the Red Sox to sign Crawford, but from an economic standpoint at least, it wasn't worth it to sign Crawford to replace Ellsbury for so much more money. The way that the Red Sox could resolve that would be to trade Mike Cameron. Of course, no other would team pay an outfielder that will be 38 in a month and who was hurt in '10 and has a .250 career batting average eight million dollars (he was a TERRIBLE signing). So, the Red Sox are going to be forced to trade Ellsbury.

Now, let's look at it from a Yankee standpoint. My first reaction to the signing was "Oh no, the Red Sox signed Crawford!". My second reaction was a very different one. The Red Sox signing Crawford isn't a good thing for the Yankees, but it isn't so bad for two reasons: 1) the Yankees can focus all their energies on signing Cliff Lee, knowing that they don't have Crawford as a backup plan (they just offered Lee a 7 year deal); and 2) both Gardner and Nick Swisher will be back in 2011.

Last season, my friend who's a Mets fan was talking to be about how the Jerry Manuel was using Pedro Feliciano way too much. It got me thinking. What are the effects of overworking a reliever? Do they flame out within a few years? How many seasons can they last while appearing in so many games? Let's find out.

The easiest way to find overworked relievers is to look at the single-season records for most appearances by a pitcher in one season (I used baseball-reference here). Feliciano is unsurprisingly number 4 on that list. Numbers 1-3 are Mike Marshall, Kent Tekulve, and Salomon Torres. Almost shockingly, all 3 of them are righties.

Marshall was a righty closer primarily in the 70's for 10 different teams. He debuted as a closer for the Montreal Expos in 1971, appearing in 66 games with a 5-8 record, saving 23 and striking out 85 in 111.1 IP. He had appeared in just 28 games the year before (5 starts). You would think that he would have worn down as the season went on, but the exact opposite occurred. He went 1-5 with a 6.30 ERA in the first half, and 4-3 with a 2.64 ERA in the second half. In 1972, he appeared in 65 games, but he did much better, going 14-8 out of the bullpen with a 1.78 ERA, 95 K's, and 18 saves in 116 IP. He was so good that the Expos put him in for 92 games in 1973, and he did not disappoint, going 14-11 while posting a 2.66 ERA, 124 K's and 31 saves (tops in the league) in 170 IP. After the season, the Expos traded him Marshall to the Dodgers. They must have thought that he would flame out after appearing in 92 games. At least in the short-term, they were wrong. In 1974 for the Dodgers, he set the record by appearing in an incredible 106 games, going 15-12 with a 2.42 ERA, 143 K's, and 21 saves (surprisingly tops in the league) in 208.1 IP. Yeah, over 200 IP out of the bullpen. In the seasons following 1974, Marshall averaged just 44 appearances per season, although he did appear in 90 games in 1979 at age 36. From the beginning of his career in 1967 to 1974, Marshall posted a 3.01 ERA. From 1975 until the end of his career in 1981, Marshall posted a 3.34 ERA. But, you can divide that 3.34 ERA into a 3.81 ERA in the 4 seasons after 1974 and a 2.95 ERA after that. Marshall apparently shows that a reliever can't keep up the 90+ games per season rate for too long and without being less durable and less effective for at least a few years after.

Tekulve was a righty closer for the Pirates, Phillies, and Reds from the mid-70's to the late 80's. After posting a 2.65 ERA and an average of 57 appearances per season in his first 3 major league seasons, Tekulve appeared in 91 games for the Pirates in 1978, going 8-7 with a 2.33 ERA, 77 K's, and 31 saves in 135.1 IP. He then appeared in 94 games for Pittsburgh in 1979, going 10-8 with a 2.75 ERA, 75 K's, and 31 saves again in 134.1 IP. After 1979, in the 10 seasons left in his career, Tekulve posted a 2.97 ERA and averaged 69 appearances per season. He even appeared in 85 games in '82 and 90 games in '87. He posted a 2.65 ERA from the beginning of his career to 1978. Tekulve didn't really wear down or become ineffective after appearing in 90 games in consecutive seasons. But is he the exception that proves the rule?

Torres was a righty middle reliever for 5 teams in the 90's and 00's (the decade of 2001 to 2010). He only saved 57 games his entire career. He posted a 4.48 ERA and an average of 31 games per season from 1993 from 2005 (he didn't appear in any games in the majors from 1998 to 2001 because he retired). In 2006, Torres went 3-6 with a 3.28 ERA, 72 K's, and 12 K's in 94 relief appearances and 93.1 IP. He posted a 5.47 ERA in 56 games in '07, and a 3.49 ERA in 71 games in 2008, his final season. He definitely lacked durability and effectiveness in '07, but he had his finest season in '08, saving 28 games in 71 appearances. Torres is in a different category than Marshall and Tekulve because he averaged many less innings per appearance than them primarily because he played more recently. Still, Torres does correspond to the hypothesis that appearing in 90 games causes relievers to be less durable and less effective, albeit to a lesser extent.

Other notable pitchers up there on the list include Paul Quantrill, Jon Rauch, Matt Capps, Scott Proctor, Heath Bell, and Mike Gonzalez.

Quantrill , another righty, is tied for 10th with 89 appearances in 2003 in addition to being tied for 22nd (two separate seasons), 61st, 96th, and 191st from other seasons) collapsed in 2005 at age 36 after 3 straight seasons with 86 or more appearances and 4 straight with 80.

Rauch, a righty reliever, is tied for 15th after appearing in 85 games in 2006 and 88 games in 2007 for the Nationals. He has averaged 69 appearances in the three seasons since, so he's been fine. His ERA after the two straight seasons with 85+ games has actually been better than before (3.66 to 3.74).

Capps, a righty closer, has been great despite making 85 appearances in his first full season at age 22 in '06, posting a 9-1 record with a 3.76 ERA. He has averaged 64 appearances, so he's certainly durable. He did post a 5.80 ERA in '09, but he's posted ERA's under 3.03 in the other three seasons including a 2.47 ERA and 42 saves in '10.

Bell, another righty closer, appeared in 81 games in '07, posting a 2.02 ERA. But, he posted a 2.77 ERA and an average of 70 appearances per season since. He certainly has been fine.

Gonzalez, a lefty closer, posted a great 2.42 ERA in 80 games in '09 for the Braves, but showed effects of the overuse in '10, suffering a shoulder injury in April, and posted a 4.01 ERA in 29 games overall.

Proctor, you may remember, was a righty middle reliever who the Yankees who was used by Joe Torre for 83 games in '06, posting a 3.52 ERA. Proctor was traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline in '07 and posted a 3.65 ERA in 83 games overall. He has never been effective since, posting 6.09 ERA in 47 appearances since '07, including a 6.35 ERA in 6 relief appearances for Atlanta in '10. He missed all of '09 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery.

Now, let's talk about Feliciano. He has gone where few others have, pitching in 86 or more games the last 3 seasons, including 92 appearances in '10. Feliciano certainly a different case than Marshall, Tekulve, Torres, and the other pitchers listed above. Feliciano pitches for one or two batters at a a time while Marshall and Tekulve pitched often pitched 3 innings in an appearance, and Torres and the other active or recently active players pitched an inning per appearance. It has been about 50-50 whether these relievers have been able to be durable and effective after pitching in so many games. The data apparently shows that signing pitchers who have appeared in 80 more games in a season can be a risky proposition. But, I'll say it again, Feliciano is a different case. He may appear in a lot of games, but there's not nearly the stress on his arm that there was on the arms of Marshall, Tekulve, Torres, and all the other guys because he pitches so many less innings. Feliciano is not a risk to sign as a free agent. He does not have so much stress on his arm that he will fall apart any season now. He'll collapse eventually of course (not too many pitchers didn't collapse at the end of their careers), but when he's old (pending a serious injury). The Yankees and several other teams have been talking to Feliciano. If any of the teams can agree to terms with him, then they should by all means sign him.

Dunn to White Sox

The Chicago White Sox have signed 1B Adam Dunn to a 4-year, 56 million dollar deal. Dunn is one of the premier power hitters in the majors right now, having averaged 40 homers and 101 RBI the last 7 seasons. He also posted a .381 OBP over that same stretch. He's certainly a great offensive player, but considering the fact that he's replacing Paul Konerko, will he improve the White Sox?

Let's compare the stats of Dunn and Konerko. Dunn hit .260 with 36 doubles, 38 homers, 103 RBI, 85 runs, and a .356 OBP (his career low) in 158 games for the Nats. He posted a below-average .990 fielding percentage (Fld%) in 153 games at first base. Konerko hit .312 with 30 doubles, 39 homers, 111 RBI, 89 runs, and a .393 OBP (his career high) in 149 games. Using OPS+, Konerko was much more valuable than Dunn, posting a 158 OPS+ to Dunn's 138. He posted a league-average .994 Fld% in 125 games at first base. The cold hard stats say that Konerko was better than Dunn in '10. It's hard to disagree.

So, will Dunn make the White Sox' offense better than it was in '10? No. But, the White Sox made the right move in signing Dunn over Konerko. Why? There are 2 factors: 1) Dunn is 4 years younger than Konerko; and 2) Konerko had a career year. When next season begins, Dunn will be 31 and Konerko will be 35. Common sense says that Dunn has more good years left in him than Konerko. Also, although Konerko had a better year than Dunn in '10, he may not do that again. His career averages per full season are a .288 BA with 28 homers and 90 RBI (I took out 1997 when he appeared in 6 games, but kept 1998, when he appeared in 75). Dunn has hit .250 with 35 homers and 88 RBI. If both players return to their career averages, Konerko will still be better because he has a better BA and more RBI per season, but you have to keep in mind that the White Sox are better than Dunn's previous teams, the Reds and Nationals (along with the D-backs for half a season) were much worse than the White Sox so Dunn will get more RBI's and he has averaged 101 RBI the last 7 seasons. His career average for RBI's is skewed because he averages 57 RBI per season from '01 to '03. Also, you have to expect Konerko to begin declining within a couple years, so the Dunn will definitely be better over the next 4 seasons.

In conclusion, although it may look like the White Sox are actually going to regress offensively by signing Dunn over Konerko, the move is definitely the right one because Dunn will definitely be better than Konerko over the life of his contract.

Who will be the next Yankee closer?

Mariano Rivera is closing in on a 1 or 2 year deal with the Yankees, but we all know that the contract that he's about to sign will probably be his last contract. It's certainly not too early now to think about the next Yankee closer. In this post I will talk about the major league options, and the minor league options for down the line.

After Joba Chamberlain was transitioned back to the bullpen entering this past season, you would have thought that he was being groomed to be the next Yankee closer. But, then he had a disappointing '10, posting a 4.40 ERA. Let's examine his stats. He went 3-4 with the aforementioned 4.40 ERA in 73 relief appearances and 71.2 IP. He struck out 77 and walked 22. He allowed 6 home runs. Based on those stats, excluding ERA, Joba should have had a good year. He posted a great 9.7 K/9 ratio and a good 2.8 BB/9, which comes out to a really good 3.50 K/BB ratio. His 6 homers allowed in 71.2 IP came out to a 0.8 HR/9 ratio, which is certainly acceptable, and he had 3 saves. But, you probably noticed what stat I omitted: hits allowed. He allowed 71 hits- basically a hit per inning. That's not ridiculously bad in general, but it certainly is bad for a reliever.To put that into perspective, Rivera allowed just a 5.9 H/9. Even Joba himself posted a 7.2 H/9 from '07 to '08, and if he gets back to that, he'll be a great reliever. Bottom line, Joba needs to get more swings and misses. He has a great fastball and he should be a strikeout pitcher, not a pitch-to-contact pitcher. So, to summarize, could Joba potentially put it all together? Yes, and if so, he would be a very good closer. But, right now, it's unclear whether that will happen.

If not Joba, the other pitcher currently in the Yankee bullpen that has a chance to be the next closer is David Robertson. The expectations were very high for Robertson in '10 after he posted a 3.30 ERA and a ridiculous 13.0 K/9 in '09. During the first half of '10, Robertson certainly disappointed many people. He posted a 5.46 ERA in 31 relief appearances. Why was his ERA so high? Partially because of too many hits allowed, just like Joba. He struck out 32 in 29.2 IP, but he allowed 36 hits, which amounts to a 11.1 H/9 that was much worse than Joba. But also Robertson had another problem: too many walks. He walked 17 batters, a ratio of around 5.2 batters per 9 innings. Despite his 9.7 K/9, Robertson walked so many guys that his K/BB ratio was just 1.88. But, in the second half, Robertson got himself together. He posted a great 2.27 ERA in 33 apperances. He walked 17 again, but struck out 39 for an improved 2.29 K/BB ratio. But, the biggest reason that Robertson turned around was that he allowed 6.5 hits per 9 innings, definitely a huge improvement. If Robertson pitches as well as he did in the second half of '10 in 2011 and going forward, he'll certainly be a great closer candidate. He walks a few too many batters, but his incredible strikeout rate (11.3 K/9 for his career) certainly makes up for it as long as he gives up less than a hit per inning. Right now, I think that Robertson is more likely to be the next Yankee closer than Joba.

It seems like a strong possibility that the Yankees will re-sign Kerry Wood if no team offers him a closer job. Could he potentially be the next Yankee closer? Picture this potential contract: 3 years, let's say 27 million dollars, with a vesting option in 2014 if he records 30 saves in 2013. But, do the Yankeees think that Wood will stay healthy. Wood went 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 31 K's in 24 relief apperances and 26 IP for the Yankees in '10. He did walk 18, which amounts to a very bad 6.2 BB/9, but he allowed just 14 hits for a ridiuclous 4.8 H/9 ratio. He also gave up just 1 home run. I don't think that the Yankees should sign Wood more than 2 years, but because of the 0.69 ERA in '10 for the Yankees, I had to bring him up.

Minor leaguers:

There's been talk that Andrew Brackman could be the next Yankee closer, but he has nixed that by succeeding as a starter in '10.

J.B. Cox, the former Texas Longhorns closer who at one point was projected to succeed Rivera, and gone through some problems on and off the field. He'll turn 26 in May, and he's at Double-A right now. He's not eliminated from the running, but I'd give him like a 1% chance of ever closing for the Yankees.

Ryan Pope functioned as Double-A Trenton's closer, going 4-6 with a 4.20 ERA, 17 saves, and 85 K's in 39 relief appearances along with 7 starts and 94.1 IP. He walked just 31, but his Achilles' heel was the home run- he gave up 10. He gave up 8.4 hits per 9 innings, but you just can't give up a homer every 9 innings (a 1.0 HR/9 ratio). The amount of homers he's given up doesn't bode well for him. Mariano Rivera gave up 10 home runs between August 12th, 2008 and September 19th, 2010. He'll turn 24 in May, so he has a little time to fix his homer problem. We'll see him in the big leagues within a couple of years, but probably never as a closer.

Always have to bring up Pat Venditte when I can. The switch-pitcher has 51 minor league saves including 6 at High-A Tampa in '10 along with a 1.73 ERA. Minor league hitters just can't seem to hit him, hence his 1.70 career ERA and 11.2 career K/9. He also has great control, as he has walked just 1.9 batters per 9 innings, and posted a ridiculous 6.06 K/BB ratio. He also doesn't allow any hits- just 6.5 per 9 innings, or hit anybody- just 2 hit batsmen in 3 minor league seasons. He's just been great. Will he be able to master major league hitters the same way? Well, first he has to master Double-A and Triple-A hitters. He's already 25 years old, so he better begin dominating them soon and get in the majors by 2012. When he does make the majors, I'll probably be one of 1.5 million bloggers doing posts on him. But, will he ever close for the Yankees? No chance. His upside is the best situational reliever ever, not a closer. He could potentially mow down major league hitters left and right (pun intended), but he just doesn't have the stuff to close games for the New York Yankees.

21 year old right-hander Chase Whitley worked as closer at Short Season-A (SS-A) Staten Island, posting a 1.45 ERA and 15 saves. He won't be the next Yankee closer, but he could potentially be the closer in 4 years (being part of the bullpen in 3 years) if both Joba and Robertson aren't good enough. He was drafted in 2010 and I did a short bio on him here: Analysis on all 50 Yankee draft picks
15. Chase Whitley, a 20 year old RHP from Troy was the Yankees' 15th round pick. He was Troy's closer. He had a decent fastball, 89-92 MPH, but he has 2 other pitches that are very good: a slider and a changeup. He averaged about a strikeout per inning in '10. He has a chance to be a pretty good reliever for the Yanks.

I'm not sure if he can function as a closer with a fastball that tops out at 92, but if his performance at Staten Island means anything, he has a chance.

Preston Claiborne debuted nicely at Staten Island in '10, going 1-2 with a 2.28 ERA, 2 saves, and 30 K's in 19 relief apperances and 23.2 IP. He walked 8 and allowed 20 hits. Possibly most impressive of all, he allowed no home runs. Claiborne also got a brief taste of High-A Tampa to finish the year, going 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA in 5 relief apperances. I wrote this about him in the above post:

7. In the 17th round, the Yankees drafted another RHP, Preston Claiborne from Tulane. He's been a reliever his whole college career. He showed good control at Tulane in '09 (29 K's, 12 walks), and pitched both as a long reliever and short reliever. With that Alrfredo Aceves-like versatility, we might see him in the Yankee bullpen at some point.

Whitley beat out Claiborne to be Staten Island's closer, but Claiborne definitely has some value. Maybe they'll both be in the bullpen in a few seasons. I doubt Claiborne will be the closer, though. Still, if Claiborne becomes Alfredo Aceves 2.0 (minor the injuries), the Yankees will definitely be happy.

Thomas Kahnle, another 2010 draftee, had a great pro debut for Staten Island, posting a 0.56 ERA in 11 relief apperances. He struck out 25 and walked just 5 in 16 innings. Those are all ridiculous stats. He was unhittable. And you thought that he was unhittable based on the stats above. No. He allowed 3 hits. 3 hits! That's a ratio of 1.7 hits per 9 innings. Wow.This guy might be something special. I wrote this about him in that post above about the Yankees' 2010 drafted players:

5. In the 5th round, the Yankees drafted 20 year old RHP Thomas Kahnle from Lynn University in Divison 2. Kahnle is going to be a reliever for the Yanks. He has a lot of potential, as evidenced by his playoff performance as a freshman. He was awarded the Most Outstanding Player award for the NCAA National Tournament and the South Region Tournament. (I haven't had this confirmed, but I'm sure the NCAA National Tournament is Division 2. Note that the Division 1 tournament is the College World Series.) The Yankees can never have enough good relievers, and hopefully Kahnle will be one of them.

The sky is the limit for this kid. He turned 21 in August. We'll see him in the majors within a couple of years, and I would not be surprised if one day, he's the Yankee closer.

Realistically, Joba or Robertson will be the next Yankee closer. But, theycould just be keeping the seat warm for one of these other guys. Although it was a very small sample size, I think that Kahnle really is that good. I think he'll end up being the Yankee closer in 2014 or 2015.

Should the Yankees let Jeter walk?

The Yankees will eventually re-sign Derek Jeter. That's pretty much a given. But, should they really let him go? Ignoring Jeter's legacy and all that, and assuming the Yankees don't sign or trade for a big-name shortstop, Eduardo Nunez will be, or at least compete for, the starting shortstop job. Is he anywhere near as good as Jeter is right now? Despite Jeter's down year, he still did OK. Nunez is unproven. Would handing him the starting job be a good idea?

Let's talk about Nunez. Nunez burst onto the scene in 2005, hitting .313 at SS-A Staten Island. But, from '06 to '08, he hit just .241. He did steal 22 bases in '06 and 29 in '07, but you just can't hit .240. Also, his OBP's over that time frame were just .261, .305, and .305 again. But in '09, he hit .322 at Double-A Trenton with 26 doubles, 9 homers, 55 RBI, 19 SB, and a .349 OBP in 123 games. In '10, he was promoted to Triple-A Scranton, and he did well again, hitting .289 with 25 doubles, 4 homers, 50 RBI, 23 SB, and a .340 OBP in 118 games. Then, when A-rod went down in August, Nunez was promoted to the majors and did pretty well, hitting .280 with 1 double, 1 homer, 7 RBI, 5 SB (0 CS), 12 runs and a .321 OBP in 30 games. He posted just a .944 Fld% at 3B (1 error), but posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% at SS. His RF/9 (range factor per 9 innings) at SS was 5.26- Jeter, the AL Gold Glove winner, posted just a 3.78 RF/9! Nunez is a definitely better defensive shortstop than Jeter! Jeter NEVER posted a RF/9 anywhere near as high as 5.26! (His highest was 4.76 in '05.)

Even Nunez's .280 BA- it was certainly better than Jeter's .270 BA! Let's look at Jeter's 2010 stats: the aforementioned .270 BA, 30 doubles, 10 homers, 67 RBI, 18 SB, 111 runs, and a .340 OBP in 157 games. He had 663 AB's. Nunez had 50. If you multiply Nunez's stats by 13.26 (50 X 13.26= 663), he would have still hit .280, but with 13 doubles, 13 homers, 93 RBI, 66 SB, 159 runs, and the same .321 OBP. Those are ridiculous numbers! There's no way Nunez will EVER have a year like that, but if you project his 2010 numbers over 400 AB's (multiply his stats by 8), he would have hit .280 with 8 doubles, 8 homers, 56 RBI, 40 SB, 96 runs, and a .321 OBP. Those are still All-Star caliber numbers! (I have to note that his 12 runs in '10, and therefore his runs projection for 663 and 400 AB's, are a bit inflated because he appeared in 7 games as a pinch-runner, scoring 3 runs, a quarter of his season total.) You can definitely make an argument that if Nunez was given a starting job in '10, he would be a better player than Jeter would be as a starter in '10. Jeter is declining, while Nunez is just 23- he will only improve. Over the next 5 years, Nunez would certainly put up better numbers as a starter than Jeter would. You can argue the other way for 2011, but not for the next 5 years. It would be a better move for the Yankees to let Jeter leave and make Nunez the starter in 2011. Unfortunately, it won't happen.

Yankees sign pair of lefties

The Yankees have agreed to deals with left-handed pitchers Neal Cotts and Daniel Martinez. They are very different pitchers: Cotts is a 30 year old lefty reliever while Martinez is a 20 year old pitcher who has both started games and relieved. Cotts has a chance to make an impact as the second lefty in the Yankee bullpen (since Damaso Marte is hurt), while Martinez is a long-term project.

Cotts, who will turn 31 in March, missed all of 2010 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. However, when healthy, he's can be very effective. Cotts was a second round pick by the Athletics in 2001, but was traded to the White Sox in 2003. After a brief cup of coffee in '03 as a starter, Cotts was converted to a reliever. Although he struggled his way a 5.65 ERA in '04, Cotts was incredible in '05, posting a 1.94 ERA and 58 K's in 69 relief appearances, and in typical lefty specialist fashion, just 60 IP. But, he posted just a 5.17 ERA in '06 and was traded to the Cubs. In '07, Cotts spent most of the year in the minors, but posted a 4.86 ERA in the majors in 16 appearances. But, he was back on track in '08, posting a 4.29 ERA and 43 K's in 50 appearances but just 35.2 IP. Cotts posted a 7.36 ERA in '09 in 19 appearances, but that was probably because of his elbow injury that would require surgery. Cotts has struck out a lot of batters throughout his career (8.3 per 9 innings), but he has walked too many guys (4.6 BB/9). For his career, Cotts has just a 1.79 K/BB ratio. But, when Cotts posted a 2.00 K/BB or better, he had his 2 best seasons, '05 and '08. Cotts certainly isn't a great player, but if healthy, he could potentially be a nice complement to Boone Logan in the bullpen.

Martinez has yet to harness his potential. He was signed by the Reds in 2007, but he never left Rookie ball. The reason was his terrible walk rate. Martinez has a 3.89 career ERA in the minors and a 7.7 K/9, but he has posted a 5.7 BB/9. He was so bad in '10, posting a decent 4.32 ERA but walking 18 against 16 K's, that the Reds released him. He's a long shot to reach the majors, but if Nardi Contreras (Yankees minor league pitching coordinator) or somebody can teach him some control, he could be a good pitcher.

Yankees acquire former first round pick Cody Johnson

The Yankees have acquired Cody Johnson from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for cash. Johnson was the Braves first round pick out of high school in 2006, 24th overall. In 2006, he had a terrible pro debut, hitting just .184 with 6 doubles, 1 homer, 16 RBI, 2 SB, and a .260 OBP in 32 games at Rookie ball. He posted just a .933 OBP in the outfield with 0 assists (for some reason, no position in the outfield is specified on baseball-reference.com). Johnson was so bad that the Braves had to send him back to Rookie ball in '07. That season, he played very well offensively, hitting .305 with 18 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 7 SB, and a .374 OBP in 63 games. He posted just a .931 Fld% in left field, although he did post 5 oufield assists. Although he was at such a low level in the minors, Johnson still showed that he certainly had the first-round talent that the Braves had seen in him.

In '08, Johnson was promoted to Low-A (skipping Short Season-A), and he did pretty well, hitting just .252 in 127 games, with but with 26 doubles, 26 homers, 89 RBI, and 8 SB, although he posted just a .307 OBP. He even made strides defensively, posting a .946 Fld% while still posting 5 assists. The one problem for Johnson was strikeouts- he struck out 177 times, which would have led the AL in '10. Johnson struck out 180 times in '09, but had a better season, hitting .242 with 18 doubles, 32 homers, 87 RBI, 10 SB, and a vastly improved .345 OBP in 122 games at High-A. He was briefly promoted to Double-A, where he got just 4 hits in 22 AB for a .182 BA, but he made the most of them, driving in 3 runs. He also improved even more defensively, posting a .961 Fld% in 88 games in LF and 8 games in RF with 9 assists. He turned 21 in August of '09, and appeared to be not too far from the majors.

In '10, Johnson was promoted to Double-A. He hit just .189 with 6 doubles, 10 homers, 31 RBI, 9 SB, and a .269 OBP in 75 games. He was demoted briefly in July to Rookie ball in attempt to get his confidence back, but he hit just .250 with 2 homers and 4 RBI in 6 games. He closed the season out at High-A, hitting .264 with 4 doubles, 6 homers, 25 RBI, and a .333 OBP in 25 games. He also played worse defensively, posting a .945 Fld% with 6 assists.

The Yankees got Johnson for nothing but cash, so it's a very low-risk gamble. Johnson clearly has power- he has hit 66 homers the last 3 seasons. If he can post a league-average BA, he could be a good player, maybe Nick Swisher-esque, hitting 30 homers a season. If not, he can be compared to former Yankee Shelley Duncan. Duncan hit 19 homers per season from '06 to '09, his last 4 full seasons in the minors (that number increases to 21 homers per season if you add in 8 major league homers over those 4 seasons). What has he amounted to? Well, he hit .231 with 11 homers as a part-time player for Cleveland in '10. The good news for Johnson is that he's just 22. Unlike Duncan, he has some time to get himself together. If he can do that, he will be a good player.

Yankees-Diamondbacks trade

The Yankees have traded minor league first baseman Juan Miranda to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect Scottie Allen.

Miranda, who will turn 28 in April, hit .285 at Triple-A in '10 with 15 doubles, 15 homers, 43 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 80 games. He played pretty well defensively at first base, posting a .992 Fld%. Miranda also hit .219 in 30 games with the Yankees, with 2 doubles, 3 homers, 10 RBI, and a .296 OBP. He didn't make any errors in 13 games at first base.

Allen, who will turn 20 in July, was Arizona's 11th round draft pick in '09. He worked out of the bullpen at Rookie ball in '09, going 1-0 with a 0.51 ERA and 16 K's in 12 relief appearances and 17.2 IP. He walked 7, a few too many, but still managed a 2.29 K/BB ratio. He was so dominant because he allowed just 9 hits, good for an amazing 4.6 H/9 (hits per 9 innings) ratio, and 0 homers. In '10, Allen was a starter at Short Season-A, and went 4-4 with a 4.73 ERA and 79 K's in 16 starts and 78 IP. He walked just 22 and posted a 3.59 K/BB, but struggled because he allowed 88 hits, which amounts to a bad 10.2 H/9 ratio. He also allowed 5 homers, which comes out to a 0.6 HR/9 ratio.

At 27 years old going on 28, Miranda isn't really a prospect anymore and the Yankees had no need for him. So, the traded him to the D-backs, who for the moment don't have a starting first baseman, and got a prospect, Allen, in return. Allen has potential. He has posted good K/BB ratios both of his years in the minors, and when he allowed less than a hit per inning in '09, he did very well. If he does that consistently, he will be a great prospect and potentially a great major league pitcher.

Uggla to Atlanta

The Florida Marlins have traded star second baseman Dan Uggla to the Atlanda Braves in exchange for utility player Omar Infante and lefty reliever Mike Dunn.

Uggla and the Marlins could not agree on a contract extension, so the Marlins traded him. (I talked about why in this post: "Why are the Florida Marlins in a bad situation with Dan Uggla? The Arizona Diamondbacks".) The Marlins reportedly offered Uggla a 4-year, 48 million dollar extension, but Uggla and his agent wanted a 5-year, 71 million dollar deal. The Braves will most likely give Uggla what he wants. Uggla had a great year in '10, hitting .287 with 31 doubles, 33 homers, 105 RBI, and a .369 OBP in 159 games, and winning the NL Silver Slugger Award at second base. He posted a below-average .976 Fld% at second base with below average range, but I remember him making a few web gems. He's not a good defensive player, but his offense certainly makes up for it. But, as I said in my previous post, Uggla will be 31 in March. The Marlins didn't want to give him an extension that would take him to him 36th birthday, when he certainly would be beginning to decline. In contrast to the Marlins, who are rebuilding, the Braves are in win-now mode. They acquired Uggla in an attempt to make a World Series within a few years.

Infante is a very interesting player. He's a .300 hitter who plays everywhere. He has played over 340, 225, and 101 games respectively at second base, third base, and shortstop. He has also played 57 games in LF, 32 games in CF, and 15 games in RF. He has never played first base or catcher, and surprisingly, he has never pitched. Still, he's a very valuable player. In '10, he hit .321 with 15 doubles, 8 homers, 47 RBI, 7 steals, and a .359 OBP in 134 games. The .321 BA was third in the NL. He started 63 games at second, 18 at SS. 12 games at third, 8 games in LF, and 5 in RF. His great versatility even earned him an All-Star selection (he didn't play). For the Marlins, Infante could basically by a stop-gap at any position they need him to be until their top prospect at that position is ready. It's always nice to have a player like Infante. He can be the starter at third base now (with Chris Coghlan playing second base, his natural position), and then move into a utility role when top third base prospect Matt Dominguez makes it to the majors. Infante will help the team now as a starting infielder, while they're rebuilding, and could potentially help the team as a utility-man if they become a contender.

Dunn will be playing for his third team in 3 years. Either everyone wants him, or no one wants him. Dunn apparently has a promising future as a lefty specialist. In '10 for the Braves, he went 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 27 K's in 25 relief appearances and 19 IP. He shuts down lefties, holding them to a .211 BA. But, he holds righties to a .212 BA apparently showing that he could be a setup man shutting down both lefties and righties. Really, Dunn is much better against lefties. Although lefties were only .001 worse against him, his K/BB against them was 3.00: 18 K's versus 6 walks in 44 plate appearances. But, against the righties, his K/BB was just 0.82: 11 K's versus 12 walks. He's clearly much more comfortable against lefties. Even as just a lefty specialist, Dunn will be a valuable part of the Marlins' bullpen.

The greatest Yankee: you've never heard of: Snuffy Stirnweiss

If I asked you who was the greatest Yankee from 1944 to 1945 during World War II, what would you say? Joe Dimaggio? No, he was away at war. Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, or Whitey Ford? No, they arrived in the majors later. Bill Dickey? No, he didn't play in '44 or '45 (he would return in 1946 as a player-manager). It was George Henry "Snuffy" Stirnweiss.

Stirnweiss debuted as a 24 year old in 1943. He didn't do terribly, hitting just .219 with 8 doubles, 1 homer, 25 RBI, 4 triples, 11 SB, and a .333 OBP in 83 games, and posting a .938 Fld% in 68 games at SS and an 1.000 Fld% in 4 games at 2B, which would be his full-time position pretty much the rest of his career. (If you think Stirnweiss' stats were bad, see my post "The sad one-year career of Ben Conroy".) Stirnweiss certainly didn't seem like anything special. But, in 1944, Stirnweiss became a star. He hit .319 with 35 doubles, 8 homers, 43 RBI, 16 triples (bold= league leader in that stat), 55 SB, 205 hits, 125 runs, and a .389 OBP in 723 plate appearances and 643 at bats in 154 games. He was also amazing defensively, posting an above-average .982 Fld% with great range. Somehow he finished 4th in the MVP voting (behind Hal Newhouser (29-9, 2.22), Dizzy Trout (27-14, 2.12), and Vern Stevens (.293, 20 HR, 108 RBI). Did they not take into account that he led the league in 4 significant categories (and plate appearances, which doesn't really mean that much other than that you were a leadoff hitter on a team that scores some runs) plus putouts, assists, and Fld% at second base! Even is Newhouser and Trout were better than him, how could he have finished behind Vern Stevens, who only led the league in RBI? Even though he finished 4th in the MVP voting, Stirnweiss was certainly the top hitter in the AL in 1944.

In 1945, Stirnweiss led the league in even more categories! He posted a .309 BA with 32 doubles, 10 homers, 64 RBI, 22 triples, 33 SB, 195 hits, 107 runs, and a .385 OBP in 717 plate appearances and 632 AB in 152 games. He also led the league in slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. His Fld% did go down to .970 (the league average), but that's because he showed better rage than in '44, and made more errors because he got to more batted balls than other second baseman (proved by the fact that he led the AL in putouts by a second baseman despite all the errors). He finished 3rd in the AL MVP voting behind Newhouser again (25-9, 1.81) and Eddie Mayo (I have no idea how he finished second- he hit .285 with 24 doubles, 10 homers, 54 RBI, 3 triples, 7 SB, 143 hits, 71 runs, and a .347 OBP although he did lead AL second basemen in Fld% at .980). Stirnweiss was once again the top position player in the AL.

In 1946, World War II was over, and the players who went to war came back, such as Joe Dimaggio, Ted Williams, and Bob Feller. Stirnweiss wasn't the same player. In 1946, Stirnweiss hit .251 with 19 doubles 0 homers, 37 RBI, 7 triples, 18 SB, 75 runs, and a .340 OBP in 129 games. As a starting third baseman for the only time in his carer, Stirnweiss was ridiculous, posting a .991 Fld% in 79 games, way higher then the league average of .945 at the position. He also posted an above-average .979 Fld% in 46 games at 2B and a .917 Fld% in 4 games at SS. Ironically in 1946, not either of his peak years of 1944 and 1945, Stirnweiss was an All-star for the only time.

In 1947, Stirnweiss had the best season of his career after 1945. He hit .256 with 18 doubles, 5 homers, 41 RBI, 8 triples, 5 SB, 102 runs, and a .358 OBP in 148 games. He posted an above-average .983 Fld% at second base. In '48, Stirnwiess had nearly as good of a season, hitting .252 with 20 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, 7 triples, 5 SB, 90 runs, and a .360 OBP in 141 games. His Fld% at second base was .993, significantly over the league average .976 at second base. In 1949, Stirnweiss turned 30 and his end drew near. He played in just 70 games, hitting .261 with 8 doubles, 0 homers, 11 RBI, 2 triples, 3 SB, 29 runs, and a .380 OBP. His Fld% declined to .974, the league average, although he did post a 1.000 Fld% in 4 games at third base. He wasn't the same player anymore.

In 1950, the end came for Stirnweiss as a Yankee. On June 15th, Stirnweiss was part of a blockbuster 7 player trade between the Yankees and St. Louis Browns. The change of scenery actually made things worse for Stirnweiss, as he hit just .218 with the Browns, with 16 doubles, 1 homer, 24 RBI, 2 triples, 3 SB, 32 runs, and a .324 OBP in 93 games (he had hit .000 in 7 games and 2 AB for the Yankees). He posted below-average fielding percentages at both second based and third base: .975 Fld% in 66 games at second, and a .955 Fld% in 31 games at third. He also posted a way below-average .875 Fld% in 5 games at shortstop. Stirnweiss was traded to the Cleveland Indians right before the 1951 season, and he hit .216 with the Indians, with 1 double, 1 homer, 4 RBI, and a .373 OBP in 50 games (but just 88 AB). He finished his career very strong defensively, posting an above-average .993 Fld% in 25 games at second base, and a 1.000 Fld% in 2 games at third base. After one game as a defensive replacement in 1952, Stirnweiss' career was over.

Snuffy Stirnweiss was not a great hitter. But, he had perfect timing to start his career during World War II, and he was probably the best hitter in the AL during that time period. Once the veterans came back, Stirnweiss was just a league average player. But, even though the level of competition was much lower during World War II, you can't deny that Stirnweiss had magical seasons in both 1944 and 1945.

What's ironic about Stirnweiss' timing being so lucky to begin his career is how unlucky he was at the end of life. In 1958, at the tender age of 39, Stirnweiss was killed in the Newark Bay rail incident. The train that he was on plunged into Newark Bay, killing 48 people including him.

Again, Snuffy Stirnweiss was not a great hitter. But, for those two seasons of 1944 and 1945, he played as well as any Yankee in history. Stirnweiss teaches us a valuable lesson: with the right opportunity, you can do anything.

The sad one-year career of Ben Conroy

I can assure all of you that this will be the first and last time that you will ever hear of Ben Conroy. Conroy was a 19 year old rookie in 1890 for the Philadelphia Athletics of the American Association (which is widely considered a major league). In 1890, his only season, he appeared in 117 games. Clearly, he was not some random minor leaguer who appeared in a couple games. He was the youngest player in the AA to appear in ten or more games. In those 117 games, Conroy played like no player I've ever seen before. He somehow lasted 117 games while hitting .171. Yeah, that's not a typo, .171. Was Conroy really that bad? Well, he did hit 13 doubles and 1 triple while stealing 17 bases. His OBP was .262, nearly .100 better than his BA, so that's pretty good. Defensively, he posted a .893 Fld% in 74 games at SS, which would be terrible today, but which was good for 3rd in the AA, in addition to a .947 Fld% in 42 games at 2B, which also would be bad today, but which was significantly above-average back then. He also posted an 1.000 Fld% in one game in CF. Maybe with a couple more seasons in the majors he would have developed into a decent player. But, right after the year, Conroy was sent back down to the minors and toiled there for 5 seasons, hitting .273, before retiring in 1897 at age 26.

What happened to America being a land of second chances? He was certainly a good enough fielder (compared to his peers) to remain on the team in some capacity. He probably could have been a defensive replacement and pinch-runner for some major league team! Well, 1890 was the last year of that Philadelphia Athletics franchise (there was another franchise called the Philadelphia Athletics that started in 1901 with the founding of the American League, and has become the Oakland A's of today). Conroy had terrible luck. If he had come to the big leagues one year earlier, he probably would have been in the big leagues in 1890 as well, and maybe with 2 years of experience, he would have gotten better in 1890 and been signed by another major league team.

What a sad story. He plays one full season in the majors, plays badly, and never gets another chance. Conroy is just one of many who this happened to in the late 1800's (and to a lesser extent, throughout baseball history). With a second chance, at least a couple of them could have become Hall of Famers.

Why are the Florida Marlins in a big situation with Dan Uggla? The Arizona Diamondbacks

Dan Uggla is a great player right now. He is the only second baseman in MLB history to hit 30 homers in 4 different seasons. In '10, he set career highs with 33 homers, 105 RBI, a .287 BA, and a .369 OBP. Although there are questions about his defense, his great offense at 2B certainly outweighs those concerns. It seems like a no-brainer that the Marlins should sign him long-term. But, Uggla is going to be 31 on March 11th. Still, the Marlins offered Uggla a 4-year, 48 million dollar contract extension and he declined it. Now the Marlins are looking to possibly trade Uggla. What should they do?

If Uggla was 2 or more years younger, I have no doubt that the Marlins would add in the 5th year to the contract to satisfy him. But, he's 31. Maybe he'll have a few more amazing seasons in him, but his decline is coming sooner rather than later. Late bloomer stories are nice, but in sports, they put you at a disadvantage. Again, don't get me wrong, Uggla is a great player, but he's not some 25 year old hotshot 2nd baseman. If he was 25 right now, the Marlins would offer him the same 6-year, 70 million dollar extension that they gave to Hanley Ramirez at age 25. Even if he was 28 like Robinson Cano is right now (Cano's birthday was October 22nd), he would get an enormous extension like the one that Cano is about to get from the Yankees. Even if he was one year younger he would have had more leverage in the negotiation and the Marlins would have offered him a bigger deal! But, he's 31. It's certainly unfortunate for him, but it's true.

Really, it's all the Arizona Diamondbacks' fault. The Diamondbacks drafted Uggla in the 11th round of the 2001 draft out of the University of Memphis. They started him at Short Season-A Yakima and he did pretty well, hitting .277 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 40 RBI, 8 SB, and a .341 in 72 games. In '02, Uggla was promoted to Low-A South Bend, but he struggled hitting just .199 with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 10 RBI, 0 SB, and a .299 OBP in 53 games. Why did the Diamondbacks leave him there for 53 games? After 53 games, they finally understood that he needed a change of scenery, and they promoted him to High-A Lancaster, where he showed some improvement, hitting .228 with 7 doubles, 3 homers, 16 RBI, 3 SB, and a .311 OBP in 54 games. In '03, the Diamondbacks sent Uggla back to Lancaster at age 23, and the move certainly paid off, as he hit .290 with 31 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, 7 triples, 24 SB, 104 runs, and a .355 OBP in 134 games. Uggla was able to develop some confidence and finally tap into his potential.

2004 was when the Diamondbacks messed up Uggla. They sent Uggla back to Lancaster to begin the year right after he dominated at that level. Hitting .290 with 23 homers isn't enough? And they kept him there for 37 games! After 37 dominant games in which Uggla hit .336, they finally promoted him to Double-A El Paso, where he hit .258 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 30 RBI, 10 SB, and a .301 OBP in 83 games. Are those good numbers? Certainly not, but what if he had 37 more games to adjust? In '05, he hit .297 at Double-A Tennessee (the affiliate moved) with 33 doubles, 21 homers, 87 RBI, 15 SB, 81 runs, and a .378 OBP in 135 games. After the season, Uggla was left off the D-backs' 40-man roster, and he was selected by the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft, starting a great career.

What if Uggla had been promoted to Double-A to begin '04? Well, let me present these 2 scenarios: Uggla struggles to begin '04 at Double-A, but he adjusts and ends up hitting .280 with 15 homers. He is promoted to the big league roster in September. He is the D-backs' starting 2nd baseman in '05 (moving Craig Counsell to SS and forcing Royce Clayton on the bench), and the D-backs don't trade for Orlando Hudson. Uggla becomes the team's star 2nd baseman, winning the NL Rookie of the Year in '05, beating out Ryan Howard, and they lock him up long term in either '07, '08, or '09. Uggla would have gotten an extra season in the majors and been more likely to get a nice long-term deal. Or, let's say Uggla struggles mightily both offensively and defensively in September of '04 and the D-backs elect to keep him off the 40-man roster. The Marlins draft him in the Rule 5 draft, and Uggla still wins the NL Rookie of the Year in '05, starting a great major league career.

Bottom line, Uggla should have been a starter in the majors one year earlier and it's unfortunate for him that it didn't happen because he isn't getting as much money as he would have if he was one year younger.

Maybin to Padres

The Florida Marlins have traded CF Florida Maybin to the Padres in exchange for relievers Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica. This comes right on the heels of their trade with the Red Sox in which they traded LHP Andrew Miller, who, like Maybin, was also acquired in the Miguel Cabrera trade, and received another reliever, lefty Dustin Richardson. Full post on that trade here: Marlins-Red Sox trade (see sidebar).

Maybin, the 10th overall pick by the Tigers in '05, has yet to show his enormous potential at the major league level. Maybin is a five-tool prospect, but none of those tools have shown up consistently in the majors. In '10 at age 23, he hit just .234 with 7 doubles, 8 homers, 28 RBI, 9 SB, and a .302 OBP in 82 games. He posted a below-average .982 Fld% in centerfield, although he did show great range and post 4 outfield assists. He hit .250 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 13 RBI, just 1 SB, and a .318 OBP in 54 games in '09. That season, he posted a .992 Fld% in CF, but just 1 outfield assist. The thing about Maybin is that if you look at his minor league stats, you would think that he would be a star. In 114 Double-A games over 2 seasons, Maybin hit .283 with 16 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 8 triples, 21 SB, 82 runs, and a .384 OBP. Any team would like a player like that in the majors. At Triple-A in 115 games over 2 seasons, Maybin hit .325 with 24 doubles, 7 homers, 62 RBI, 10 triples, 13 SB, 65 runs, and a .401 OBP. That also would be a great season! The Padres hope that Maybin will finally harness his potential and put up seasons like the minor league stats above in the majors.

Webb had a very good season in '10, going 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 44 K's in 54 relief appearances and 59 IP. He didn't strike out too many batters (just 6.7 per 9), but walked just 19. His one problem was hits allowed- he allowed 64 hits, well over a hit per inning. The Padres must think that he won't be able to post an ERA under 3.00 again while allowing so many hits.

Mujica posted a ridiculous 12.0 K/BB ratio in '10 (72 K's versus 6 walks in 69.2 IP), but he went just 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 49 relief appearances. He allowed less than a hit per inning, but he allowed 14 home runs. Mujica is the kind of reliever that has such great control that you think he could be something special. But, he has to work on his command within the strike zone. If the Marlins could straighten him out, he could be a closer candidate considering Leo Nunez's struggles in '10 (3.46 ERA, 8 blown saves).

This trade makes sense on both sides. The Padres got the CF that they desperately needed while the Marlins got some needed bullpen help. The Marlins traded a player who has had his struggles while the Padres traded players that have done well in the majors, but have particular problems. I think that this will be an OK trade for the Marlins- Webb and Mujica are good relievers, but this trade could be a steal for the Padres if Maybin lives up to his potential.

Marlins-Red Sox trade

In a swap of left-handed pitchers from the 2006 draft the Florida Marlins have traded Andrew Miller, the 6th overall pick from that draft by the Detroit Tigers, to the Boston Red Sox for Dustin Richardson, a 5th round pick.

Miller, acquired by the Marlins in the Miguel Cabrera trade, has appeared in the majors for parts of the last 5 seasons, but has posted just a 5.84 ERA, including a 8.54 ERA in 7 starts and 2 relief appearances for the Marlins in '10. Miller's main downfall has been hits allowed- he has allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings in the majors including 14.1 hits per 9 in '10. Miller, who once had so much promise, even posted a 5.35 ERA and 9.4 hits allowed per 9 in the minors in '10. He is just 25, but he's just gone straight down.

Richardson, a reliever, had a good season in '10. going 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in 32 relief appearances in the minors in '10, striking out 56 in 44 IP, and going 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA in 26 relief appearances for the Red Sox, striking out 12 in 13 IP. He's a decent reliever, and at 26 going on 27, he could have a bright future as a lefty specialist.

The Marlins must feel that Miller can't be fixed. His college stats (27-9 with a 2.76 ERA at UNC), showed his tremendous potential, but he's just been a disaster in the majors. They got what they thought that was the best possible value that they could get for him. The Red Sox must think that they can fix Miller. They basically just traded away a pitcher that will likely go straight to the Marlins' bullpen for a project. Can Miller be fixed? As a Yankee fan, I sure hope not.

Will Jesus Montero be a servicable major league catcher?

Everyone loves 2011 rookie Jesus Montero's bat, but not everyone is sure about his defense. Montero will likely be a Yankee for a long time, but will he be the starting catcher for the Yankees for that period of time as well? No matter what your opinion is off Jorge Posada and his defense, he was starting catcher for the Yankees for 13 seasons. That's certainly a long time. Will Montero even be the starting catcher for 5 years?

Let's talk about offensive-minded catchers. Posada and Jason Varitek have played their whole careers under that category. Everyone wants that Johnny Bench or Joe Mauer who does it all- both win Gold Gloves and win those homer titles or batting titles. But, are we happy with those Carlton Fisk's and Mike Piazza's who maybe will win one Gold Glove if they're lucky (Fisk was certainly lucky his rookie year), but will be a feared hitter who keeps winning Silver Sluggers. What's interesting is that the best catchers do both. Neither Fisk and Piazza won a batting title or a homer title. Do you know the only offensive categories that Piazza ever led the league in? Well at first glance at Piazza's page on baseball-reference.com, just OPS+ in '95 and '97 and double playsg grouded into in '99. Sure, upon further review Piazza led the NL in offensive WAR in 1997 and AB per homer in '95, but wow. When we think of Mike Piazza, we think of one of the greatest catchers to play the game (if not the incident with Roger Clemens). How could he lead the league in so few offensive categories? Without even going into more complicated stats, Mauer has led the AL in batting 3 times, OBP once, OPS once, OPS+ once, and even sac flies once. And he has a lot of his career still ahead of him! The fans like offensive catchers. You get mad when they mess up defensively, but you love their homers and other big hits. But, you'd much rather have a two-way catcher. They play well defensively AND get those big hits. Montero is obviously an offensive catcher. Do the Yankees have a two-way catcher coming up? I want to say Austin Romine, but he apparently can't catch the ball. Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy might be good defensive catchers eventually, but they're quite a while away. The Yankees, at least for the next few seasons, will be stuck with an offensive catcher again.

But, the Yankees have had a history of offensive catchers. From Bill Dickey to Yogi Berra to Elston Howard the Yankees have had a ton of offensive catchers in their history. Why not have another one? How cbad an Montero be? Let's compare Montero's minor league stats to Posada's. If Montero's stats are as good or better, maybe he could be a fringe-average big league catcher like Posada has been. Posada posted a .977 Fld% in the minors, a 6.9 range factor per game ratio, 83 passed balls, and a 29% CS% in 6 minor league seasons. Montero has posted a .994 Fld% in the minors with a range factor per game ratio of 7.75, 41 passed balls, and a 23 CS% in 4 minor league seasons. Posada has done much better in the majors, posting a .992 Fld%, a 6.80 range factor per game ratio, 142 passed balls, and a 28% CS% in 16 seasons. Could Montero make that type of jump? The Yankees believe that Montero will be a serviceable catcher. He better be.

DeJesus to the A's

The Oakland Athletics have acquired OF David DeJesus from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for RHP Vin Mazzaro and LHP Justin Marks.

DeJesus, who will turn 31 on December 20th, had a nice but injury shortened season for the Royals in 2010, hitting .318 with 23 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, and a .384 OBP in 91 games. He injured his thumb during a 10-4 loss to the Yankees on June 22nd and had to undergo surgery. DeJesus had his best season in '08, when he hit .307 with 25 doubles, 12 homers, 73 RBI, 11 steals, and a .366 OBP in 135 games. He hit .281 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 71 RBI, 9 triples, and a .347 OBP in 144 games. Defensively, DeJesus has not made an error since '08. His 15.3 Ultimate Zone Rating was second in the majors in '09 to Carl Crawford, but was negative 0.1 in '10. He is not a great player, but he can be a solid contributor on a good team.

Mazzaro has been very inconsistent both at the major league and minor league levels. Mazzaro, a 3rd round pick, went 9-9 at Low-A his first pro season in '06, but posted a 5.05 ERA. He then went 9-12 with a 5.33 ERA at High-A in '07. But then, Mazzaro had an incredible season in '08, 15-6 with a 2.74 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. 2-2 with a 2.38 ERA in 9 starts and a relief appearance in '09 at Triple-A, Mazzaro was promoted to the majors where he went 4-9 with a 5.32 ERA in 17 starts. In '10, Mazzaro started out at Triple-A again, where he went 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 6 starts and a relief appearance, before being recalled to the majors. Mazzaro went 6-8 for the A's in '10, with a 4.27 ERA in 18 starts and 6 relief appearances. He was 6-3 with a 3.45 ERA on June 24th, but went just 0-6 with a 5.37 ERA the rest of the season. Keep in mind that Mazzaro isn't your average 24 year old fireballer. Mazzaro has posted just a 6.8 K/9 in the minors and a 5.8 K/9 in the majors. That wouldn't be that bad, but he doesn't have great control either. He has a 3.7 career BB/9, and his career K/BB ratio is just 1.55. If the Royals can somehow fix Mazzaro's control, he could be a good back of the rotation starter.

Marks is a lefty strikeout machine, but at least to this point in his career, he has not been effective. A 2009 3rd round pick, Marks had the worst pro debut I've ever seen that same season, pitching in 1 game at Rookie ball, a start, and giving up 6 runs in 0.0 IP for an infinity ERA. Yeah, infinity. Well, from there Marks could only be better. Not that he was that good in '10- he went 6-13 with a 4.87 ERA in 24 starts and a relief appearance between Low-A and High-A. The only reasons Marks has any value is because he struck out 136 batters in 129.1 IP in '10, good for a 9.5 K/9, and he posted a 2.78 K/BB ratio. If the Royals can somehow fix him, he could be a great pitcher. How many lefty starters strike out over a batter per inning?

The Royals are in a rebuilding mode, and had no need for DeJesus. They decided to trade him for 2 pitchers that need help, but certainly have potentially. The Royals are taking the gamble that Mazzaro and Marks will pan out. But, they wouldn't have done this trade if they didn't think they could fix them.

Will Jeter rebound in 2011?

Everyone knows that Jeter had a off-year in 2010. He hit just .270, his worst BA since 1995 (.250 in 15 games). Will he ever be a .300 hitter again?

First off, let me just clarify that Jeter's 2010 season wasn't THAT bad. His 111 runs were his most since 118 in 2006. His 30 doubles were his most since '07. But, that being said, his .340 OBP was also his worst since '95, his 515 outs made were the most of his career, his 107 K's were his most since '05, he posted his lowest slugging percentage of his career (.370), and he grounded into the 2nd-most double plays of any season of his career, 22 (only behind 24 in '08). In addition, Jeter went his most at-bats per homer, 66.3, since '95 (he had no homers in '95), and his most at-bats per RBI, 9.9, in any season of his career. So, now that we have a perspective of Jeter's 2010 season compared to the rest of his career, we can ask this question: did Jeter have a bad season because of bad luck or because he's beginning to decline?

Did Jeter have bad luck in 2010? Well, his .307 BAbip (BA on balls in play) was the lowest of any season in his career. And, not by a small margin. His previous career low was .324 in '95, and keep in mind that his BAbip's the last 4 years were .368 in '09, .333 in '08, .367 in '07, and a ridiculous .391 BAbip in '06. Those four BAbip's correlate perfectly to Jeter's BA in those years. He hit .343 in '06 because of the ridiculous .391 BAbip, .322 in '07 because of the great .367 BAbip, just .300 in '08 because his BAbip went down .34 to .333, and then .334 in '09 because his BAbip went back up to .368. Keep in mind that BAbip is almost all luck. As they say, "you can only hit the ball, you can't aim it." So, by that reasoning, Jeter was very unlucky in '10.

But, an important factor in BAbip is line drive percentage- although some line drives are caught, most line drives are base hits. Jeter's LD% in 2010 was just 16%, the lowest of his career. That's very low compared to his 22% LD% for his career. Although LD% isn't as clearly connected to BA as BAbip, going back to our '06 to '09 example for Jeter's career, Jeter's LD% was 21% in '06 when he hit .343, 22% in '07 when he hit .322, just 19% when he hit just .300, and 21% when he hit .334 in '09. Jeter just isn't hitting line drives as often anymore. His 5.8% of hits for extra bases in '10 was tied for the lowest percentage of his career, with '08. According to that, Jeter appears to definitely be in decline. He just can't hit as many line drives anymore.

Is Jeter in decline? Well, from June until September of 2010, Jeter hit .242. But, he rebounded to hit .287 in September (and the regular season games in October). Will Jeter ever hit .300 again? Maybe not. But, maybe that .287 BA in September could be what Jeter has left in the tank. Jeter certainly had bad luck in '10, most notably from June until September when he had just a .275 BAbip. But, even when his BAbip shot up to .351 in September, he still hit just .287. Jeter's decline is just beginning, but still he's in a decline. I don't think he'll ever hit .300 again, but I think that his luck will turn around in 2011 and he'll hit around .290.

Iwakuma to the A's

The Oakland Athletics have won the bidding for Japanese RHP Hisashi Iwakuma. Iwakuma isn't your average Japanese star pitcher coming from Japan. He went 13-6 with a 3.25 ERA, but just 121 K's in 24 starts and 169 IP. He gave up 169 hits, more than a hit per inning, although he did walk just 43. Contrast him to other big name Japanese starters Daisuke Matsuzaka, who struck out 200 in 186.1 IP his last year in Japan, and Hideo Nomo, who struck out 126 in 114 IP his last year in Japan and 276 in 243.1 IP in his last full year in Japan. Iwakuma's strikeout rate in his last year in Japan is not even comparable to Kei Igawa's stats in his last year in Japan. Igawa struck out 194 in 209 IP, an 8.4 K/9, compared to Iwakuma's 6.4 K/9. To go through a few other active Japanese pitchers, Hideki Okajima had a 10.5 K/9, Kenshin Kawakami had an 8.6 K/9, Takashi Saito had a 7.9 K/9, Hisanori Takahashi also had a 7.9 K/9, while Koji Uehara had a 7.3 K/9, and Hiroki Kuroda, 6.2 K/9. Let's look at those last 4 guys. Kawakami has been up and down as a starter in the big leagues, while Saito, Takahashi, and Uehara have enjoyed success in the big leagues as relievers, and Kuroda has been a successful starter. Among that group, the A's obviously hope that Iwakuma will be most like Kuroda.

The comparison between Iwakuma and Kuroda goes further. Iwakuma posted a 2.3 BB/9 in Japan in '10, similar to Hiroki Kuroda's 2.1 BB/9 in his last year in Japan. Kuroda's career BB/9 in the majors is also 2.1. Could Iwakuma also maintain his 2.3 BB/9? Interestingly, Kuroda's strikeout rate has gone up from 6.2 per 9 to 6.6 per 9 in America. Could the same thing also happen to Iwakuma?

In comparing Iwakuma to Kuroda, I'm realizing this: Iwakuma isn't going to be a big league superstar unless he really becomes a much better pitcher against big league hitters. He will be a nice 3rd starter, posting an ERA in the low to mid 3.00's (Kuroda's ERA in the big leagues has ranged from 3.39 to 3.76). He won't blow away hitters, but he'll get outs. Iwakuma's hype isn't anywhere near what Dice-K's hype was when he came to the US. But, considering Matsuzaka's struggles, Iwakuma certainly has as good of a chance as he does to be "the next great Japanese pitcher".

Jay Gibbons- a story of perseverance

Once you get there, you will do anything to get back.

As a Yankee fan, I remember Jay Gibbons as one of the outfielders on the Orioles team that kept finishing in 4th place in the AL East, only in front of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He was a good player, hitting .247 with 28 homers and 68 RBI in his 2nd year in '02, and hitting .277 with 23 homers and 100 RBI in '03. After hitting just .246 with 10 homers and 47 RBI because of injuries in '04, Gibbons rebounded to hit .277 with 26 homers and 79 RBI in '05. Gibbons played in just 90 games in '06 because of injuries, hitting .277 with 13 homers and 46 RBI. But, in September, his life changed. Former relief pitcher Jason Grimsley told federal agents that Gibbons, among others, used steroids. Gibbons denied the reports.

After hitting .230 with 6 homers and 6 homers and 28 RBI in 84 games, Gibbons was named in the Mitchell Report. Sports Illustrated reported that Gibbons used HGH and steroids from '03 to '05, with '03 and '05 being 2 of his best 3 seasons. He was released by Orioles in Spring Training of '08.

He was so desperate that he wrote this letter to all 30 MLB teams:

Writing this letter is both painful and humiliating. It has been almost six weeks since my release from the Orioles and I am still unable to land any opportunity at a second chance to play the game that I love.

I am young, healthy and determined. I have acknowledged and apologized for the mistake that I made and writing this letter should be proof enough that I have indeed suffered for my mistake.

I have faith and hope that some team will give me the chance to prove that I can not only be a productive player but also be a stellar member of their organization. My faith in a second chance has inspired me to work harder than I have at any time in my life. My faith has gotten me through this most difficult period in my life.

All I need is a chance -- any chance -- anywhere. I am more than willing to begin the process of proving that I can and will be a productive major league player by playing in the minor leagues.

As you know, I have played seven seasons in the big leagues and have hit 20-plus homeruns in three seasons and have hit .277 in three seasons (2003, 2005 and 2006). At 31 years old, I have NO DOUBT that my best baseball is ahead of me.

I know that my agents at ACES have tried to land me an opportunity in the minor leagues but have been met with negative responses by each and every Organization. I am not blind to the fact that I have made a mistake and that mistake has raised doubt about my character and ability. It is important that you know that my indiscretions, while regretful, were made in an effort to heal a nagging wrist injury. I would encourage you to speak with anyone in this game, including players, coaches, front office etc. who know me. I am confident that everyone you speak with will vouch for my character.

I respectfully and humbly request that you grant me the chance to play for your organization. I am so willing to prove myself as a player, and a person, that I will donate ALL of my minor league earnings to your Club's charity. In the event that I earn the right to play at the major league level, I will gladly donate a significant sum to that same charity.

Once again, all I need is a chance and I will prove that I can be an extremely productive player and a great addition to your organization.

Please feel free to contact me directly [phone number omitted]. Thank you for your time and consideration.

Sincerely,

Jay Gibbons

Even though he used steroids, reading that letter almost made me cry. No team signed Gibbons to even to a minor league deal and he instead played with the independent Long Island Ducks. He hit .280 with 5 homers and 19 RBI in 27 games for the Ducks before finally being signed to a minor league deal by the Brewers. He hit very well for Triple-A Nashville in the Brewers organization hitting .312 with 5 homers and 15 RBI in 29 games. He was a free agent after the year, and signed to a minor league contract by the Marlins in January of '09. But, the Marlins released him in mid-March, and he was signed by the independent Newark Bears. He couldn't even hit well for the Bears, hitting just .233 with 4 homers and 19 RBI in 40 games. At 32, he appeared to be washed up.

Still, for some reason he was signed to a minor league contract by the Dodgers in January '10. The move certainly paid off. Gibbons hit a ridiculous .347 for Triple-A Albuquerque, with 19 homers and 83 RBI. He was promoted to the majors on August 8th, he hit .280 with 5 homers and 17 RBI. The Dodgers re-signed him to a 1-year contract worth $650,000 with incentives.

Even in a country of second chances, no one, maybe not even Gibbons himself, thought he would get back. He has become an inspiration. An inspiration to everyone who has made a mistake- all of us. No one is perfect. When you make a mistake, you have to persevere through it and get back to who you were before. You can fall all the way down, but if you're a good person and you're sincere, like Gibbons, you can realistically get all back up.

Bizarre Blue Jays-Rockies trade

The Rockies traded catcher Miguel Olivo to the Blue Jays for a player to be named. It doesn't sound like anything special, right? Well, it certainly was.

The Blue Jays declined Olivo's 2011 option, making him a free agent. (What? They just traded a player to be named for nothing!) Why did they do that? Well, Miguel Olivo is a Type-B free agent, so the Blue Jays traded a player to be named to potentially get a supplemental draft pick in June. Before that happens, they have to offer Olivo salary arbitration, and he has to decline it and sign with another team. But, what if he accepts the arbitration? Well, then Olivo would be an expensive backup to rookie catcher J.P. Arencibia, and the Blue Jays would probably try to trade him again. This trade is a calculated gamble by the Jays. If Olivo declines arbitration, Toronto will get an a supplemental draft pick in exchange for some random prospect. That's potentially a great trade. But, if Olivo accepts arbitration, that's potentially a disaster for them. The one thing in Toronto's favor is that Olivo will probably want to be a starter somewhere rather than be a backup in Toronto. I think it was a good gamble by the Jays. In all likelihood, the Jays will get a supplemental pick in exchange for a low-rated prospect.

Dustin Ackley dominates the AFL

2009 number 2 overall pick 2nd baseman Dustin Ackley has finally lived up to his potential. In his first minor league season, the Mariners prospect was hitting just .203 on May 27th at Double-A. It was such a big deal that I did a post on it! (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/655065-whats-going-on-with-mariners-top-prospect-dustin-ackley). But, Ackley rebounded to do OK at Double-A, hitting .263 with 21 doubles, 2 homers, 28 RBI, 8 SB, and a .389 OBP in 82 games. He was then promoted to Triple-A, and did better, hitting .274 with 12 doubles, 5 homers, 23 RBI, 2 SB, and a .338 OBP in 52 games. After starting off badly at Double-A, he rebounded and did even better at Triple-A. Still, he didn't play like a #2 overall pick should. Well, Ackley has finally started playing like a #2 overall pick in the Arizona Fall League. He has hit .400 with 4 doubles, 3 homers, 11 RBI, and a .554 OBP in 12 games. That's ridiculous. He's tied for 4th in the AFL in BA, tied for 2nd in homers, tied for 10th in RBI (with among others Yankee prospect Brandon Laird), and leads the AFL in OBP. This is the Ackley everyone expected.

So, why did he struggle during the minor league season? Because he was a 1st baseman and outfielder in college. He had to adjust to 2nd base defensively and because of that adjustment, he struggled at the plate for a while. Once he made the adjustment, he got back to being the great hitter he was in college.

Matt Kemp to the Yankees?

The rumor is that the Dodgers will trade CF Matt Kemp over the offseason. Could the Yankees make a run at him?

Every rumor has to start with the Yankees. Kemp doesn't appear to be a fit, but the Yankees could consider trading Nick Swisher. Swisher has been a great personality in the clubhouse, and he does have power, but there's no way the Yankees wouldn't at least consider including him in a trade for a talent like Kemp. Kemp only had 3 less homers than Swisher's 29 in '10, and the same amount of RBI (89). Plus, Kemp has logged 168 games in RF, posting a .973 Fld%, but a league-average .982 Fld% in 70 combined games in '08 and '09. He could be OK in right defensively. The Yankees would then have a very fast outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Kemp. (Before anyone asks, a Gardner-Granderson-Crawford outfield would not work because they have a combined 0 games in RF. But, if Swisher is traded, Jayson Werth could definitely play RF, since it's been his primary position since '07.) So, what could the Dodgers get in return for Kemp. Well, pretty much anything they wanted besides Jesus Montero. My guess would be a package of something like Swisher, C Austin Romine, and OF Melky Mesa (a player who could eventually be a Kemp-like player if he pans out) for Kemp and OF Jamie Hoffmann (back to the Yankees after being returned after the Rule 5 draft). Let's analyze this theoretical trade.

Swisher had an all-star season in '10, hitting .288 with 33 doubles, 29 homers, 89 RBI, 91 runs, and a .359 OBP in 150 games. He posted a slightly-above average .986 Fld% in RF. He's certainly a good player. Do the Yankees want to trade him, even for Kemp?

Romine, the Yankees' 2nd best catching prospect besides Montero, had a decent season in '10, hittting .268 with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, 61 runs, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. He posted a .994 Fld% at catcher, and a 23% CS%. He allowed 6 passed balls. Although those sould like good defensive stats, I've heard that he has had trouble handling good fastballs. That is definitely a problem. If you're worried that Montero may never be a full-time catcher, Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy are coming. The Yankees really don't need Romine.

Mesa, the other Melky, has been an interesting prospect. After hitting a .221 in his first 3 minor league seasons at Rookie ball and SS-A ball, He burst on to the scene at age 22 at Low-A in '09, hitting just .225, but with 24 doubles, 20 homers, 74 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 18 SB, and a .308 OBP in 133 games. In '10, he did even better, hitting .260 with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 81 runs, 31 SB, and a reasonable .338 OBP in 121 games. He owns just a .975 career Fld% in CF, but he posted a .985 Fld% there in '10. He would have been a good prospect if it weren't for those 3 lost seasons. Still, at 23 (he will turn 24 in January), he has a little time to develop. If he could put up his '09 and '10 numbers in the majors in let's say 2013, he could be a Matt Kemp-like player. It seems like a pretty good deal for the Dodgers if they get a former All-Star in Swisher, and a likely All-Star in Romine in addition to a possible Matt Kemp-esque player who if he does get to that level will be an All-Star.

Hoffmann had a nice season at Triple-A hitting .310 with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 74 RBI, 91 runs, 17 SB, and a .369 OBP in 139 games. He is a tremendous defensive outfielder, as he posted a great .996 Fld% in CF with 5 outfield assists. You would think that the Dodgers would want to keep him, but he's 26, and didn't even earn a September call-up in '10. Seems like trade bait to me.

Kemp, a 26 year old righty hitter, appeared in all 162 games for the Dodgers, hitting .249 with 25 doubles, 28 homers, 89 RBI, 6 triples, 150 hits, 82 runs, 19 SB (15 CS), a .310 OBP, a below-average .985 Fld% in CF, and just 3 outfield assists. Kemp is what he is. He has power and speed, but not a tremendous amount of either. Still, any player who could potentially put up a 30-30 season is a good player. Kevin Long could maybe fix his swing, and the Yankees could have far and away the best outfield in the majors, possibly an outfield that could all 3 be All-Stars in the same season. Picture that. As a Yankee fan, do you want the Yankees to trade for Kemp now? Is it a longshot? Maybe, but there's a chance. A chance of the trade happening and a chance that something special will happen in the Yankee outfield.