Will Jeter rebound in 2011?

Everyone knows that Jeter had a off-year in 2010. He hit just .270, his worst BA since 1995 (.250 in 15 games). Will he ever be a .300 hitter again?

First off, let me just clarify that Jeter's 2010 season wasn't THAT bad. His 111 runs were his most since 118 in 2006. His 30 doubles were his most since '07. But, that being said, his .340 OBP was also his worst since '95, his 515 outs made were the most of his career, his 107 K's were his most since '05, he posted his lowest slugging percentage of his career (.370), and he grounded into the 2nd-most double plays of any season of his career, 22 (only behind 24 in '08). In addition, Jeter went his most at-bats per homer, 66.3, since '95 (he had no homers in '95), and his most at-bats per RBI, 9.9, in any season of his career. So, now that we have a perspective of Jeter's 2010 season compared to the rest of his career, we can ask this question: did Jeter have a bad season because of bad luck or because he's beginning to decline?

Did Jeter have bad luck in 2010? Well, his .307 BAbip (BA on balls in play) was the lowest of any season in his career. And, not by a small margin. His previous career low was .324 in '95, and keep in mind that his BAbip's the last 4 years were .368 in '09, .333 in '08, .367 in '07, and a ridiculous .391 BAbip in '06. Those four BAbip's correlate perfectly to Jeter's BA in those years. He hit .343 in '06 because of the ridiculous .391 BAbip, .322 in '07 because of the great .367 BAbip, just .300 in '08 because his BAbip went down .34 to .333, and then .334 in '09 because his BAbip went back up to .368. Keep in mind that BAbip is almost all luck. As they say, "you can only hit the ball, you can't aim it." So, by that reasoning, Jeter was very unlucky in '10.

But, an important factor in BAbip is line drive percentage- although some line drives are caught, most line drives are base hits. Jeter's LD% in 2010 was just 16%, the lowest of his career. That's very low compared to his 22% LD% for his career. Although LD% isn't as clearly connected to BA as BAbip, going back to our '06 to '09 example for Jeter's career, Jeter's LD% was 21% in '06 when he hit .343, 22% in '07 when he hit .322, just 19% when he hit just .300, and 21% when he hit .334 in '09. Jeter just isn't hitting line drives as often anymore. His 5.8% of hits for extra bases in '10 was tied for the lowest percentage of his career, with '08. According to that, Jeter appears to definitely be in decline. He just can't hit as many line drives anymore.

Is Jeter in decline? Well, from June until September of 2010, Jeter hit .242. But, he rebounded to hit .287 in September (and the regular season games in October). Will Jeter ever hit .300 again? Maybe not. But, maybe that .287 BA in September could be what Jeter has left in the tank. Jeter certainly had bad luck in '10, most notably from June until September when he had just a .275 BAbip. But, even when his BAbip shot up to .351 in September, he still hit just .287. Jeter's decline is just beginning, but still he's in a decline. I don't think he'll ever hit .300 again, but I think that his luck will turn around in 2011 and he'll hit around .290.