Dan Uggla is a great player right now. He is the only second baseman in MLB history to hit 30 homers in 4 different seasons. In '10, he set career highs with 33 homers, 105 RBI, a .287 BA, and a .369 OBP. Although there are questions about his defense, his great offense at 2B certainly outweighs those concerns. It seems like a no-brainer that the Marlins should sign him long-term. But, Uggla is going to be 31 on March 11th. Still, the Marlins offered Uggla a 4-year, 48 million dollar contract extension and he declined it. Now the Marlins are looking to possibly trade Uggla. What should they do?
If Uggla was 2 or more years younger, I have no doubt that the Marlins would add in the 5th year to the contract to satisfy him. But, he's 31. Maybe he'll have a few more amazing seasons in him, but his decline is coming sooner rather than later. Late bloomer stories are nice, but in sports, they put you at a disadvantage. Again, don't get me wrong, Uggla is a great player, but he's not some 25 year old hotshot 2nd baseman. If he was 25 right now, the Marlins would offer him the same 6-year, 70 million dollar extension that they gave to Hanley Ramirez at age 25. Even if he was 28 like Robinson Cano is right now (Cano's birthday was October 22nd), he would get an enormous extension like the one that Cano is about to get from the Yankees. Even if he was one year younger he would have had more leverage in the negotiation and the Marlins would have offered him a bigger deal! But, he's 31. It's certainly unfortunate for him, but it's true.
Really, it's all the Arizona Diamondbacks' fault. The Diamondbacks drafted Uggla in the 11th round of the 2001 draft out of the University of Memphis. They started him at Short Season-A Yakima and he did pretty well, hitting .277 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 40 RBI, 8 SB, and a .341 in 72 games. In '02, Uggla was promoted to Low-A South Bend, but he struggled hitting just .199 with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 10 RBI, 0 SB, and a .299 OBP in 53 games. Why did the Diamondbacks leave him there for 53 games? After 53 games, they finally understood that he needed a change of scenery, and they promoted him to High-A Lancaster, where he showed some improvement, hitting .228 with 7 doubles, 3 homers, 16 RBI, 3 SB, and a .311 OBP in 54 games. In '03, the Diamondbacks sent Uggla back to Lancaster at age 23, and the move certainly paid off, as he hit .290 with 31 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, 7 triples, 24 SB, 104 runs, and a .355 OBP in 134 games. Uggla was able to develop some confidence and finally tap into his potential.
2004 was when the Diamondbacks messed up Uggla. They sent Uggla back to Lancaster to begin the year right after he dominated at that level. Hitting .290 with 23 homers isn't enough? And they kept him there for 37 games! After 37 dominant games in which Uggla hit .336, they finally promoted him to Double-A El Paso, where he hit .258 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 30 RBI, 10 SB, and a .301 OBP in 83 games. Are those good numbers? Certainly not, but what if he had 37 more games to adjust? In '05, he hit .297 at Double-A Tennessee (the affiliate moved) with 33 doubles, 21 homers, 87 RBI, 15 SB, 81 runs, and a .378 OBP in 135 games. After the season, Uggla was left off the D-backs' 40-man roster, and he was selected by the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft, starting a great career.
What if Uggla had been promoted to Double-A to begin '04? Well, let me present these 2 scenarios: Uggla struggles to begin '04 at Double-A, but he adjusts and ends up hitting .280 with 15 homers. He is promoted to the big league roster in September. He is the D-backs' starting 2nd baseman in '05 (moving Craig Counsell to SS and forcing Royce Clayton on the bench), and the D-backs don't trade for Orlando Hudson. Uggla becomes the team's star 2nd baseman, winning the NL Rookie of the Year in '05, beating out Ryan Howard, and they lock him up long term in either '07, '08, or '09. Uggla would have gotten an extra season in the majors and been more likely to get a nice long-term deal. Or, let's say Uggla struggles mightily both offensively and defensively in September of '04 and the D-backs elect to keep him off the 40-man roster. The Marlins draft him in the Rule 5 draft, and Uggla still wins the NL Rookie of the Year in '05, starting a great major league career.
Bottom line, Uggla should have been a starter in the majors one year earlier and it's unfortunate for him that it didn't happen because he isn't getting as much money as he would have if he was one year younger.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment