Yankees top prospect Jesus Montero has been dealing with a bit of a groin problem, but it's hard not to like his current stats at Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He's hitting .375 with 4 doubles, a homer, 4 RBI, a .484 SLG, and amazingly a .369 OBP (no walks, out trying to stretch once) in 15 games. He's going to need to get back into games, get his OBP up, and show some more power, but we know he's capable of doing all of those. How long can the Yankees keep this guy in the minors? But where could they play him? Russell Martin is destroying the AL to the tune of a .290/.364/.594 line. Jorge Posada at DH has just a .131/.231/.391 line, but he has 6 home runs, and the Yankees aren't going to easily bench a player who's making 13.1 million dollars this season. 1st base isn't an option with Mark Teixeira there, so all the regular positions that catchers play are out of the question. But, if Montero is still hitting .370 in a month, how could the Yankees possibly keep him in the minors? What could the Yankees do?
Well, you have to at least give a look to the left field and right field positions. Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher both had nice games Thursday, but they're still hitting .169/.229/.385 and .237/.351/.303 respectively. Gardner has 7 extra-base hits, 3 homers, and driven in 6 runs, but he's been successful on just 4 of 7 stolen base attempts, while Swisher has just 3 extra base hits, 1 homer, although he has driven in 12 runs. Couldn't Montero be better than either of them right now? Who in the world wouldn't think that Montero could at least put up at least a .275/.340/.400 line in the majors right now? Gardner and Swisher are nice players, but how could you leave one of the best hitters in professional baseball stranded at Triple-A? Brian Cashman could probably trade either Gardner or Swisher within a couple of days. Why won't he?
First of all, there's the obvious question of defense. Gardner is the best defensive left fielder in baseball, and replacing him with Montero would be an enormous defensive downgrade. Swisher has worked hard defensively, and he had a positive UZR in 2010 (and so far in 2011). Even replacing Swisher with Montero would be a big downgrade defensively. Or would it? Earlier in Yankee history, the Yankees had another case where they had two good catchers. From the mid-1950's to the mid-1960's, the Yankees had both Yogi Berra and Elston Howard. So what did they do? They had both Berra and Howard play some left field and right field. Berra played 260 career games in the outfield while Howard played 265. And while Berra and Howard weren't Gold Glove-caliber defensively, they certainly were good enough. Berra posted a .972 Fld% and a 2.08 RF/9 in 149 career games in left field. The league averages were a .973 Fld% and a 2.03 RF/9. He certainly was an average fielder in left. In 166 games in right, Berra wasn't as good, posting just a .966 Fld% and a 1.65 RF/9 compared to the league averages of .974 and 1.97, but even in that case, he survived defensively. Howard was pretty solid in 228 games in left, posting a .982 Fld% and a 1.98 RF/9 compared to the league averages of .979 and 2.13. (Keep in mind that Berra and Howard did not play the outfield in all the same seasons.) Howard played just 42 games in right, but he actually was a plus defender, posting a .987 Fld% and a 2.33 RF/9 compared to the league average compared to the league averages of .979 and 1.99. Could Montero put up similar numbers?
Even if he could, Montero would have to start learning the new position, and that could take away from his focus on hitting, which wouldn't be good for him in the long run. Also, Gardner and Swisher play important roles for the Yankees. Gardner is the Yankees' only legitimate 30-stolen base threat (although if he gets on base, he could steal 50), and Swisher is great in the clubhouse, so the Yankees shouldn't panic and hinder Montero's development. Unless Posada or Martin gets hurt, the Yankees should allow Montero to keep working defensively at catcher in Triple-A until September, when he'll get his first cup of coffee in the big leagues. Then, next year, he'll be ready to take over at DH and backup catcher when Posada retires and use his bat to the best of his ability. Yankee fans, don't panic about the struggles of Gardner and Swisher.
Showing posts with label Jorge Posada. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jorge Posada. Show all posts
Friday, April 29, 2011
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Comparing the 1996 and 2009 Yankee championship teams
When I first thought of the idea for this post, I thought that the 2009 Yankees would be so different be so different from the 1996 Yankees. Really, when you look at the big picture, that's not the case. Let's compare them position by position to illustrate that point.
C: Joe Girardi vs. Jorge Posada
Before you say anything, let's compare the salaries: 2.325 million dollars vs. 13.1 million dollars. Sure, Girardi was signed as a free agent, but to be a role player. Also, the players themselves couldn't be more different. Girardi hit .294 with 22 doubles, 2 homers, 45 RBI, 13 SB, and a .346 OBP in 124 games. He also played well defensively, posting a .996 Fld% at catcher, and a 25% CS%. Posada in contrast, hit .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, 1 SB (had to point that out), and a .363 OBP in 111 games. He posted just a .990 Fld%, although he did post a 28% CS%. Girardi was a scrappy player who got on base and played well defensively. Posada was a power hitter who had trouble just stopping errant pitches (Girardi had 10 passed balls compared to Posada's 31). Going by WAR, Posada had a much better season. But, was he worth almost 11 million dollars more? Either way, both players played important roles for their teams.
1B: Tino Martinez vs. Mark Teixeira
Let's look at the salaries again. 2.3 million dollars for Tino compared to 20.625 million dollars for Teix. Tino and Teix was much more similar than you would think based on their salaries. Tino hit .292 with 28 doubles, 25 homers, 117 RBI, 82 runs, and a .364 OBP in 155 games. Teix hit that same .292 with 43 doubles, 39 homers, 122 RBI, 103 runs, and a .383 OBP in 156 games. Tino posted a .996 Fld% at 1B compared to Teixeira's .997. First base might be the one position where both teams were very similar. Teixeira was a better player, but not by that much. Obviously, Teix isn't worth over 18 million dollars more than Tino. Both teams filled a very similar role for their respective teams- a power-hitting first baseman in the middle of the lineup who also plays well defensively.
2B: Mariano Duncan vs. Robinson Cano
The salary gap here isn't that far: 845,000 dollars for Duncan compared to 6 million dollars for Cano. They certainly had very different seasons. Duncan hit .340 with 34 doubles, 8 homers, 56 RBI, and just a .352 OBP (9 walks all year) in 109 games.Cano hit .320 with 48 doubles, 25 homers, 85 RBI, 103 runs, and a .352 OBP (30 walks) in 161 games. Defensively, Cano was far superior, posting a .984 Fld% at Duncan's .973. Duncan was an incredible hitter for average that had few other skills, while Cano was an amazing hitter who hit for average and power in addition to being a Gold Glover defensively. Cano was significantly better, but Duncan filled a nice niche for the 1996 team.
3B: Wade Boggs vs. Alex Rodriguez
2.05 million dollars versus 33 million. Oh my gosh. Boggs and A-rod are as different as night and day. Boggs hit .311 with 29 doubles, 2 homers, 41 RBI, 80 runs, 1 SB, and a .389 OBP in 132 games. A-rod hit .286 with 17 doubles, 30 homers, 100 RBI, 78 runs, 14 SB, and a .402 OBP in 124 games. Boggs posted a .974 Fld% at third base compared to .967 by A-rod. Boggs is a Hall of Famer because he was an amazing pure hitter. A-rod was once a good pure hitter (215 hits in 1996 and 213 in 1998), but is now known strictly as a power hitter. Boggs was a very good role player at that point in his career, while A-rod was still a superstar when he came back from injury. They contributed very different aspects to their teams; Boggs was a top-of-the-lineup kind of player who was a table-setter for the big hitters. A-rod, obviously, is a big hitter.
SS: Derek Jeter vs. Derek Jeter
The salary comparison isn't fair- Jeter was a rookie in '96 so of course he didn't a lot of money! He made just 160 thousand dollars compared to 21.6 million in 2009. Let's compare Jeter's seasons. He certainly had two Jeterian seasons. He hit .314 with 25 doubles, 10 homers, 78 RBI, 104 runs, 183 hits, 14 SB, and a .370 OBP in 157 games on his way to the AL Rookie of the Year. Like most rookie shortstops, he did struggle defensively, posting a .969 Fld% (although his range was must better than it is now). In '09, he also had a great season, hitting .334 with 27 doubles, 18 homers, 66 RBI, 107 runs, 212 hits, 30 SB, and a .406 OBP in 153 games. He posted a .986 Fld%. Jeter was a great player both back then and in '09 (maybe not really anymore).
LF: Gerald Williams/Tim Raines vs. Johnny Damon
Looking at the salaries, Damon easily made more than Williams and Raines combined. Raines made 2.1 million dollars and Williams made '200 thousand while Damon made 13 million. Williams had a below-average season, hitting .270 with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, 7 SB, and just a .319 OBP while posting just a .978 Fld% in LF, which was just slightly below league average, but you would expect more from a player who played most of his career in centerfield. To make things worse, he only had 1 assist. He was traded to the Brewers in August (through waivers). Raines meanwhile, was sidelined most of the year by a hamstring tear, but came back after Williams was traded. He did well, hitting .284 with 10 doubles, 9 homers, 33 RBI, 45 runs, and a .383 OBP in 59 games. He also posted an above average .988 Fld% in LF, with 3 assists. In 2009, Damon had a great season offensively, hitting .282 with 36 doubles, 24 homers, 82 RBI, 107 runs, 12 SB, and a .365 OBP in 143 games. But, he posted an astronomically below average .978 Fld% in LF (league average was .987). This guy was playing centerfield the year before! Anyway, Damon was certainly better than Gim Waines (Williams + Raines). But again, was he worth 10 million dollars more?
CF: Bernie Williams vs. Melky Cabrera
In terms of salaries, Bernie made 3 million dollars to Melky's 1.4 million. Bernie was certainly double as good as Melky. He hit .305 with 26 doubles, 29 homers, 102 RBI, 108 runs, 17 SB, and a .391 OBP in 143 games. He did post just a .986 Fld% in centerfield, which was below average, but he had 10 outfield assists, third in the league. He had an outstanding season. Not that Melky was bad at all. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .990 Fld% in the outfield, including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF, but he posted just 3 assists. In a battle of arbitration-eligible players (Bernie won in a hearing), Bernie was certainly a far superior player, although Melky filled an important role for the 2009 Yankees.
RF: Paul O'Neill vs. Nick Swisher
O'Neill and Swisher happened to make nearly the same amount of money, with O'Neill earning 5.3 million dollars and Swish earning 5.4. Both players had good seasons. O'Neill hit .302 with 35 doubles, 19 homers, 91 RBI, 89 runs, and a .411 OBP in 150 games. Swish hit .249 with 35 doubles, 29 homers, 82 RBI, 84 runs, and a .371 OBP in 150 games. O'Neill was superb defensively, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld% at RF with 7 assists, while Swish was still OK at .983 with 7 assists as well. They gave similar contributions to their teams (O'Neill was better), so they certainly deserved similar salaries.
DH: Ruben Sierra/Darryl Strawberry/Cecil Fielder vs. Hideki Matsui
The three headed monster at DH made a total of 6.5 million dollars, while Matsui made double that, 13 million dollars. Ruben Sierra was the DH for the '96 Yankees until July. But, he performed so poorly (.258 BA, .327 OBP, 11 homers in 96 games), that the Yankees traded him for Cecil Fielder at the deadline, and acquired Darryl Strawbery. (Fielder was actually in the middle of his last monster season, as he would go on to hit 39 homers and drive in 119 runs.) Decil Fieldberry hit 24 homers in a combined 116 games, hitting .261. (Darryl played a bit in the outfield and Fielder played some first base). All 3 players combined hit .260 with 35 homers and 125 RBI in 212 games. Matsui himself hit .274 with 28 homers and 90 RBI in 142 games. Advantage 2009. Might as well pay double for some stability rather than RubenDecil Sierra-Fieldberry. (Thank you BenJarvus Green-Ellis.)
Rotation:
The 1996 Yankees had a rotation of Andy Pettitte (21-8, 3.87 ERA), Kenny Rodgers (12-8, 4.68), Dwight Gooden (11-7, 5.01), Jimmy Key (12-11, 4.68), David Cone, who missed much of the year with an aneurysm (7-2, 2.88), and Ramiro Mendoza, who replaced him (4-5, 6.79). They earned a total of 11.467 million dollars. The 2009 Yankee rotation consisted of CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37), AJ Burnett (13-9, 4.04), Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16), Joba Chamberlain (9-6, 4.75), and Chien-Ming Wang/Sergio Mitre/Chad Gaudin (combined 6-9, 6.63, although Gaudin went 2-0, 3.43). They made 42 million, 718 thousand, 289 dollars. That's almost 4 times as much as '96. But their ERA was better, 4.40 compared to 4.56, but not THAT much better!
Closer: John Wetteland vs. Mariano Rivera
There's no comparison. Rivera earned so much more (15 million dollars to 4 million), but he pitched much better. He posted a 1.76 ERA and 44 saves compared to Wetteland's still great 2.83 ERA and 43 saves. Rivera isn't 11 million dollars better, but he certainly was (and is at least arguably) the best closer in baseball.
I couldn't compare everybody, but these are the cores of those teams. Salaries are certainly different now from then, so the salary comparison is not really fair. Still, the 2009 Yankees had five times the payroll of '96. But, they were both built off of free agents with some amount homegrown talent mixed in. That's the Yankee formula now, and it won't change anytime soon. The Yankees, even with their great talent in the minors right now, do not have a homegrown dynasty coming. No matter how great the prospects are, only the very best will make it, and the rest of the roster will be made up of players, superstars, and some role players, acquired via free agency and trades. Many of the second-best prospects might have great careers with other teams, but it just won't work out for them with the Yankees. Even after A-rod's, Teixeira's, and CC's contracts expire, we all know there will be new big contracts handed out. If they do their moves right, we'll see another dynasty coming soon.
C: Joe Girardi vs. Jorge Posada
Before you say anything, let's compare the salaries: 2.325 million dollars vs. 13.1 million dollars. Sure, Girardi was signed as a free agent, but to be a role player. Also, the players themselves couldn't be more different. Girardi hit .294 with 22 doubles, 2 homers, 45 RBI, 13 SB, and a .346 OBP in 124 games. He also played well defensively, posting a .996 Fld% at catcher, and a 25% CS%. Posada in contrast, hit .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, 1 SB (had to point that out), and a .363 OBP in 111 games. He posted just a .990 Fld%, although he did post a 28% CS%. Girardi was a scrappy player who got on base and played well defensively. Posada was a power hitter who had trouble just stopping errant pitches (Girardi had 10 passed balls compared to Posada's 31). Going by WAR, Posada had a much better season. But, was he worth almost 11 million dollars more? Either way, both players played important roles for their teams.
1B: Tino Martinez vs. Mark Teixeira
Let's look at the salaries again. 2.3 million dollars for Tino compared to 20.625 million dollars for Teix. Tino and Teix was much more similar than you would think based on their salaries. Tino hit .292 with 28 doubles, 25 homers, 117 RBI, 82 runs, and a .364 OBP in 155 games. Teix hit that same .292 with 43 doubles, 39 homers, 122 RBI, 103 runs, and a .383 OBP in 156 games. Tino posted a .996 Fld% at 1B compared to Teixeira's .997. First base might be the one position where both teams were very similar. Teixeira was a better player, but not by that much. Obviously, Teix isn't worth over 18 million dollars more than Tino. Both teams filled a very similar role for their respective teams- a power-hitting first baseman in the middle of the lineup who also plays well defensively.
2B: Mariano Duncan vs. Robinson Cano
The salary gap here isn't that far: 845,000 dollars for Duncan compared to 6 million dollars for Cano. They certainly had very different seasons. Duncan hit .340 with 34 doubles, 8 homers, 56 RBI, and just a .352 OBP (9 walks all year) in 109 games.Cano hit .320 with 48 doubles, 25 homers, 85 RBI, 103 runs, and a .352 OBP (30 walks) in 161 games. Defensively, Cano was far superior, posting a .984 Fld% at Duncan's .973. Duncan was an incredible hitter for average that had few other skills, while Cano was an amazing hitter who hit for average and power in addition to being a Gold Glover defensively. Cano was significantly better, but Duncan filled a nice niche for the 1996 team.
3B: Wade Boggs vs. Alex Rodriguez
2.05 million dollars versus 33 million. Oh my gosh. Boggs and A-rod are as different as night and day. Boggs hit .311 with 29 doubles, 2 homers, 41 RBI, 80 runs, 1 SB, and a .389 OBP in 132 games. A-rod hit .286 with 17 doubles, 30 homers, 100 RBI, 78 runs, 14 SB, and a .402 OBP in 124 games. Boggs posted a .974 Fld% at third base compared to .967 by A-rod. Boggs is a Hall of Famer because he was an amazing pure hitter. A-rod was once a good pure hitter (215 hits in 1996 and 213 in 1998), but is now known strictly as a power hitter. Boggs was a very good role player at that point in his career, while A-rod was still a superstar when he came back from injury. They contributed very different aspects to their teams; Boggs was a top-of-the-lineup kind of player who was a table-setter for the big hitters. A-rod, obviously, is a big hitter.
SS: Derek Jeter vs. Derek Jeter
The salary comparison isn't fair- Jeter was a rookie in '96 so of course he didn't a lot of money! He made just 160 thousand dollars compared to 21.6 million in 2009. Let's compare Jeter's seasons. He certainly had two Jeterian seasons. He hit .314 with 25 doubles, 10 homers, 78 RBI, 104 runs, 183 hits, 14 SB, and a .370 OBP in 157 games on his way to the AL Rookie of the Year. Like most rookie shortstops, he did struggle defensively, posting a .969 Fld% (although his range was must better than it is now). In '09, he also had a great season, hitting .334 with 27 doubles, 18 homers, 66 RBI, 107 runs, 212 hits, 30 SB, and a .406 OBP in 153 games. He posted a .986 Fld%. Jeter was a great player both back then and in '09 (maybe not really anymore).
LF: Gerald Williams/Tim Raines vs. Johnny Damon
Looking at the salaries, Damon easily made more than Williams and Raines combined. Raines made 2.1 million dollars and Williams made '200 thousand while Damon made 13 million. Williams had a below-average season, hitting .270 with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, 7 SB, and just a .319 OBP while posting just a .978 Fld% in LF, which was just slightly below league average, but you would expect more from a player who played most of his career in centerfield. To make things worse, he only had 1 assist. He was traded to the Brewers in August (through waivers). Raines meanwhile, was sidelined most of the year by a hamstring tear, but came back after Williams was traded. He did well, hitting .284 with 10 doubles, 9 homers, 33 RBI, 45 runs, and a .383 OBP in 59 games. He also posted an above average .988 Fld% in LF, with 3 assists. In 2009, Damon had a great season offensively, hitting .282 with 36 doubles, 24 homers, 82 RBI, 107 runs, 12 SB, and a .365 OBP in 143 games. But, he posted an astronomically below average .978 Fld% in LF (league average was .987). This guy was playing centerfield the year before! Anyway, Damon was certainly better than Gim Waines (Williams + Raines). But again, was he worth 10 million dollars more?
CF: Bernie Williams vs. Melky Cabrera
In terms of salaries, Bernie made 3 million dollars to Melky's 1.4 million. Bernie was certainly double as good as Melky. He hit .305 with 26 doubles, 29 homers, 102 RBI, 108 runs, 17 SB, and a .391 OBP in 143 games. He did post just a .986 Fld% in centerfield, which was below average, but he had 10 outfield assists, third in the league. He had an outstanding season. Not that Melky was bad at all. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .990 Fld% in the outfield, including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF, but he posted just 3 assists. In a battle of arbitration-eligible players (Bernie won in a hearing), Bernie was certainly a far superior player, although Melky filled an important role for the 2009 Yankees.
RF: Paul O'Neill vs. Nick Swisher
O'Neill and Swisher happened to make nearly the same amount of money, with O'Neill earning 5.3 million dollars and Swish earning 5.4. Both players had good seasons. O'Neill hit .302 with 35 doubles, 19 homers, 91 RBI, 89 runs, and a .411 OBP in 150 games. Swish hit .249 with 35 doubles, 29 homers, 82 RBI, 84 runs, and a .371 OBP in 150 games. O'Neill was superb defensively, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld% at RF with 7 assists, while Swish was still OK at .983 with 7 assists as well. They gave similar contributions to their teams (O'Neill was better), so they certainly deserved similar salaries.
DH: Ruben Sierra/Darryl Strawberry/Cecil Fielder vs. Hideki Matsui
The three headed monster at DH made a total of 6.5 million dollars, while Matsui made double that, 13 million dollars. Ruben Sierra was the DH for the '96 Yankees until July. But, he performed so poorly (.258 BA, .327 OBP, 11 homers in 96 games), that the Yankees traded him for Cecil Fielder at the deadline, and acquired Darryl Strawbery. (Fielder was actually in the middle of his last monster season, as he would go on to hit 39 homers and drive in 119 runs.) Decil Fieldberry hit 24 homers in a combined 116 games, hitting .261. (Darryl played a bit in the outfield and Fielder played some first base). All 3 players combined hit .260 with 35 homers and 125 RBI in 212 games. Matsui himself hit .274 with 28 homers and 90 RBI in 142 games. Advantage 2009. Might as well pay double for some stability rather than RubenDecil Sierra-Fieldberry. (Thank you BenJarvus Green-Ellis.)
Rotation:
The 1996 Yankees had a rotation of Andy Pettitte (21-8, 3.87 ERA), Kenny Rodgers (12-8, 4.68), Dwight Gooden (11-7, 5.01), Jimmy Key (12-11, 4.68), David Cone, who missed much of the year with an aneurysm (7-2, 2.88), and Ramiro Mendoza, who replaced him (4-5, 6.79). They earned a total of 11.467 million dollars. The 2009 Yankee rotation consisted of CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37), AJ Burnett (13-9, 4.04), Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16), Joba Chamberlain (9-6, 4.75), and Chien-Ming Wang/Sergio Mitre/Chad Gaudin (combined 6-9, 6.63, although Gaudin went 2-0, 3.43). They made 42 million, 718 thousand, 289 dollars. That's almost 4 times as much as '96. But their ERA was better, 4.40 compared to 4.56, but not THAT much better!
Closer: John Wetteland vs. Mariano Rivera
There's no comparison. Rivera earned so much more (15 million dollars to 4 million), but he pitched much better. He posted a 1.76 ERA and 44 saves compared to Wetteland's still great 2.83 ERA and 43 saves. Rivera isn't 11 million dollars better, but he certainly was (and is at least arguably) the best closer in baseball.
I couldn't compare everybody, but these are the cores of those teams. Salaries are certainly different now from then, so the salary comparison is not really fair. Still, the 2009 Yankees had five times the payroll of '96. But, they were both built off of free agents with some amount homegrown talent mixed in. That's the Yankee formula now, and it won't change anytime soon. The Yankees, even with their great talent in the minors right now, do not have a homegrown dynasty coming. No matter how great the prospects are, only the very best will make it, and the rest of the roster will be made up of players, superstars, and some role players, acquired via free agency and trades. Many of the second-best prospects might have great careers with other teams, but it just won't work out for them with the Yankees. Even after A-rod's, Teixeira's, and CC's contracts expire, we all know there will be new big contracts handed out. If they do their moves right, we'll see another dynasty coming soon.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Will Jesus Montero be a servicable major league catcher?
Everyone loves 2011 rookie Jesus Montero's bat, but not everyone is sure about his defense. Montero will likely be a Yankee for a long time, but will he be the starting catcher for the Yankees for that period of time as well? No matter what your opinion is off Jorge Posada and his defense, he was starting catcher for the Yankees for 13 seasons. That's certainly a long time. Will Montero even be the starting catcher for 5 years?
Let's talk about offensive-minded catchers. Posada and Jason Varitek have played their whole careers under that category. Everyone wants that Johnny Bench or Joe Mauer who does it all- both win Gold Gloves and win those homer titles or batting titles. But, are we happy with those Carlton Fisk's and Mike Piazza's who maybe will win one Gold Glove if they're lucky (Fisk was certainly lucky his rookie year), but will be a feared hitter who keeps winning Silver Sluggers. What's interesting is that the best catchers do both. Neither Fisk and Piazza won a batting title or a homer title. Do you know the only offensive categories that Piazza ever led the league in? Well at first glance at Piazza's page on baseball-reference.com, just OPS+ in '95 and '97 and double playsg grouded into in '99. Sure, upon further review Piazza led the NL in offensive WAR in 1997 and AB per homer in '95, but wow. When we think of Mike Piazza, we think of one of the greatest catchers to play the game (if not the incident with Roger Clemens). How could he lead the league in so few offensive categories? Without even going into more complicated stats, Mauer has led the AL in batting 3 times, OBP once, OPS once, OPS+ once, and even sac flies once. And he has a lot of his career still ahead of him! The fans like offensive catchers. You get mad when they mess up defensively, but you love their homers and other big hits. But, you'd much rather have a two-way catcher. They play well defensively AND get those big hits. Montero is obviously an offensive catcher. Do the Yankees have a two-way catcher coming up? I want to say Austin Romine, but he apparently can't catch the ball. Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy might be good defensive catchers eventually, but they're quite a while away. The Yankees, at least for the next few seasons, will be stuck with an offensive catcher again.
But, the Yankees have had a history of offensive catchers. From Bill Dickey to Yogi Berra to Elston Howard the Yankees have had a ton of offensive catchers in their history. Why not have another one? How cbad an Montero be? Let's compare Montero's minor league stats to Posada's. If Montero's stats are as good or better, maybe he could be a fringe-average big league catcher like Posada has been. Posada posted a .977 Fld% in the minors, a 6.9 range factor per game ratio, 83 passed balls, and a 29% CS% in 6 minor league seasons. Montero has posted a .994 Fld% in the minors with a range factor per game ratio of 7.75, 41 passed balls, and a 23 CS% in 4 minor league seasons. Posada has done much better in the majors, posting a .992 Fld%, a 6.80 range factor per game ratio, 142 passed balls, and a 28% CS% in 16 seasons. Could Montero make that type of jump? The Yankees believe that Montero will be a serviceable catcher. He better be.
Let's talk about offensive-minded catchers. Posada and Jason Varitek have played their whole careers under that category. Everyone wants that Johnny Bench or Joe Mauer who does it all- both win Gold Gloves and win those homer titles or batting titles. But, are we happy with those Carlton Fisk's and Mike Piazza's who maybe will win one Gold Glove if they're lucky (Fisk was certainly lucky his rookie year), but will be a feared hitter who keeps winning Silver Sluggers. What's interesting is that the best catchers do both. Neither Fisk and Piazza won a batting title or a homer title. Do you know the only offensive categories that Piazza ever led the league in? Well at first glance at Piazza's page on baseball-reference.com, just OPS+ in '95 and '97 and double playsg grouded into in '99. Sure, upon further review Piazza led the NL in offensive WAR in 1997 and AB per homer in '95, but wow. When we think of Mike Piazza, we think of one of the greatest catchers to play the game (if not the incident with Roger Clemens). How could he lead the league in so few offensive categories? Without even going into more complicated stats, Mauer has led the AL in batting 3 times, OBP once, OPS once, OPS+ once, and even sac flies once. And he has a lot of his career still ahead of him! The fans like offensive catchers. You get mad when they mess up defensively, but you love their homers and other big hits. But, you'd much rather have a two-way catcher. They play well defensively AND get those big hits. Montero is obviously an offensive catcher. Do the Yankees have a two-way catcher coming up? I want to say Austin Romine, but he apparently can't catch the ball. Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy might be good defensive catchers eventually, but they're quite a while away. The Yankees, at least for the next few seasons, will be stuck with an offensive catcher again.
But, the Yankees have had a history of offensive catchers. From Bill Dickey to Yogi Berra to Elston Howard the Yankees have had a ton of offensive catchers in their history. Why not have another one? How cbad an Montero be? Let's compare Montero's minor league stats to Posada's. If Montero's stats are as good or better, maybe he could be a fringe-average big league catcher like Posada has been. Posada posted a .977 Fld% in the minors, a 6.9 range factor per game ratio, 83 passed balls, and a 29% CS% in 6 minor league seasons. Montero has posted a .994 Fld% in the minors with a range factor per game ratio of 7.75, 41 passed balls, and a 23 CS% in 4 minor league seasons. Posada has done much better in the majors, posting a .992 Fld%, a 6.80 range factor per game ratio, 142 passed balls, and a 28% CS% in 16 seasons. Could Montero make that type of jump? The Yankees believe that Montero will be a serviceable catcher. He better be.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Yankees decline options on Berkman, Johnson
The Yankees have declined their options on designated hitters Lance Berkman and Nick Johnson. What does that mean for 2011?
I think that there are 2 possibilites: either that the Yankees will use a combination of Jesus Montero and Jorge Posada at catcher and DH, or the Yankees are about to sign a big name free agent to be the DH. Let's go through both possibilities.
Jessus Montero is ready. As I said in my recent post "Introducing the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero", Montero is a just a great hitter and an improving defensive catcher. He overcame a terrible start at Triple-A to still put up his usual great year. Posada certainly isn't the player he once was, but he still hit 18 homers in '10. Maybe he could hit 25 or more homers if he catches much less. But, to advocate against it, he hit a homer every 25.5 at-bats as a DH versus every 20.77 at-bats as a catcher. But, since the Yankees have to have Posada on the roster (he's not just going to retire with another year on his contract, and he's untradable), they might as well DH him as often as possible so they don't have to deal with his terrible defense (.986 Fld%, 15% CS%). It will be a nice send-off for Posada, and a nice experience for Montero.
Or, the Yankees could look to the free agent market for an answer at DH. Montero will be in the big leagues in '10, so he will be the starter at catcher, with Posada backing him up and playing some DH, and the free agent playing mostly DH, with some games at his natural position. Let's look at some options for that potential free agent.
Adam Dunn: Dunn is a 40+ homer who plays terrible defense. He hit .260 with 38 homers and 103 RBI in '10 and a .267 with 38 and 105 RBI in '09. The previous 4 years before that, he hit exactly 40 homers every year. He's a very consistent hitter. Just how bad is he defensively? He did post a just a slightly below average Fld% (.990) at 1B in '10! Well, in '09, he posted a terrible .986 Fld% at 1B, a terrrible .953 Fld% in LF, and a disastrous .935 Fld% in RF. He can play the field if neccesary, but it's better to have him DH. Of course, he will command a big contract. Also, what will you do with Posada if Dunn is playing every day? I don't think Dunn is a good option.
Johnny Damon: Damon said that he would want to come back to the Yankees, and he may have a chance. After a bad year, the Yankees might be one of a few teams willing to give him even semi-regular playing time. Damon hit just .271 in '10, with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 51 RBI, 11 SB, 81 runs, and a .355 OBP in 145 games with the TIgers. The Yankees could use Damon as a backup outfielder and a part-time DH along with Posada. He did hit .417 as a substitute player in the middle of a game in '10. Also, Damon got just 8 million dollars from the Tigers after hitting .282 with 28 homers and 82 RBI in '09. He could be a huge bargain for the Yankees. I'm not sure if it's a great fit, but it could work.
Hideki Matsui: Would Matsui come back to the Yankees? He had a pretty good year with the Angels in '10 at age 36, hitting .274 with 21 homers and 84 RBI. But, would he be OK with moving down in the batting order? Even if Matsui became the regular DH for the Yankees again, Posada would take away some DH at-bats and he would hit 6th or 7th. I don't think could work.
Jim Thome: Thome had a pretty good year in '10, with Thome hitting .283 with 25 homers and 59 RBI at age 39. He coul command a relatively big contract, at least for a player his age. He has some pop, but would he be a part time player on the Yankees if another team offers him a starting DH job? I would seriously doubt it.
None of the free agents are a great option, and of course, before possibly signing any of these free agents, the Yankees have to work on re-signing Jeter and Rivera, and signing Cliff Lee (or trading for some other top-flight pitcher). That's a pretty a pretty big obstacle, so I think the Yankees will do the 1st option: Montero and Posada and catcher and DH. With that being said, the Yankees will put their best possible team out there. If Cashman sees a fit in one of the free agents, he won't be afraid to sign him and greatly reduce Posada's at-bats. I still think the Yankees will go with Montero at catcher, Posada at catcher and DH, and a guy like Marcus Thames getting some DH at-bats as well.
I think that there are 2 possibilites: either that the Yankees will use a combination of Jesus Montero and Jorge Posada at catcher and DH, or the Yankees are about to sign a big name free agent to be the DH. Let's go through both possibilities.
Jessus Montero is ready. As I said in my recent post "Introducing the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero", Montero is a just a great hitter and an improving defensive catcher. He overcame a terrible start at Triple-A to still put up his usual great year. Posada certainly isn't the player he once was, but he still hit 18 homers in '10. Maybe he could hit 25 or more homers if he catches much less. But, to advocate against it, he hit a homer every 25.5 at-bats as a DH versus every 20.77 at-bats as a catcher. But, since the Yankees have to have Posada on the roster (he's not just going to retire with another year on his contract, and he's untradable), they might as well DH him as often as possible so they don't have to deal with his terrible defense (.986 Fld%, 15% CS%). It will be a nice send-off for Posada, and a nice experience for Montero.
Or, the Yankees could look to the free agent market for an answer at DH. Montero will be in the big leagues in '10, so he will be the starter at catcher, with Posada backing him up and playing some DH, and the free agent playing mostly DH, with some games at his natural position. Let's look at some options for that potential free agent.
Adam Dunn: Dunn is a 40+ homer who plays terrible defense. He hit .260 with 38 homers and 103 RBI in '10 and a .267 with 38 and 105 RBI in '09. The previous 4 years before that, he hit exactly 40 homers every year. He's a very consistent hitter. Just how bad is he defensively? He did post a just a slightly below average Fld% (.990) at 1B in '10! Well, in '09, he posted a terrible .986 Fld% at 1B, a terrrible .953 Fld% in LF, and a disastrous .935 Fld% in RF. He can play the field if neccesary, but it's better to have him DH. Of course, he will command a big contract. Also, what will you do with Posada if Dunn is playing every day? I don't think Dunn is a good option.
Johnny Damon: Damon said that he would want to come back to the Yankees, and he may have a chance. After a bad year, the Yankees might be one of a few teams willing to give him even semi-regular playing time. Damon hit just .271 in '10, with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 51 RBI, 11 SB, 81 runs, and a .355 OBP in 145 games with the TIgers. The Yankees could use Damon as a backup outfielder and a part-time DH along with Posada. He did hit .417 as a substitute player in the middle of a game in '10. Also, Damon got just 8 million dollars from the Tigers after hitting .282 with 28 homers and 82 RBI in '09. He could be a huge bargain for the Yankees. I'm not sure if it's a great fit, but it could work.
Hideki Matsui: Would Matsui come back to the Yankees? He had a pretty good year with the Angels in '10 at age 36, hitting .274 with 21 homers and 84 RBI. But, would he be OK with moving down in the batting order? Even if Matsui became the regular DH for the Yankees again, Posada would take away some DH at-bats and he would hit 6th or 7th. I don't think could work.
Jim Thome: Thome had a pretty good year in '10, with Thome hitting .283 with 25 homers and 59 RBI at age 39. He coul command a relatively big contract, at least for a player his age. He has some pop, but would he be a part time player on the Yankees if another team offers him a starting DH job? I would seriously doubt it.
None of the free agents are a great option, and of course, before possibly signing any of these free agents, the Yankees have to work on re-signing Jeter and Rivera, and signing Cliff Lee (or trading for some other top-flight pitcher). That's a pretty a pretty big obstacle, so I think the Yankees will do the 1st option: Montero and Posada and catcher and DH. With that being said, the Yankees will put their best possible team out there. If Cashman sees a fit in one of the free agents, he won't be afraid to sign him and greatly reduce Posada's at-bats. I still think the Yankees will go with Montero at catcher, Posada at catcher and DH, and a guy like Marcus Thames getting some DH at-bats as well.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Introducing the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero
Jesus Montero will win the AL Rookie of the Year. Here's why.
Let's start with Montero himself. He has great career minor league stats. He hit .326 with 34 doubles, 17 homers, 87 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 132 games for Low-A Charleston in '08. He did even better between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton in '09, hitting .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games. Those 2 seasons proved that he was a great prospect. But his 2010 season proved he will be a great major leaguer. His stats on the year were really good for Triple-A Scranton. He hit .289 with 34 doubles, 21 homers, 75 RBI, and a .353 OBP in 123 games. Those look like Montero's usual great stats, but they're differerent. Montero started off very slowly, hitting just .247 with 2 homers in April. But, if you thought that was bad, Montero had possibly the worst month in his pro career in May, hitting just .217 with only 1 homer. Montero was going through a tough stretch- he was facing adversity. And, he got through it. He hit .283 with 3 homers in June, showing flashes of his usual self. Then, he broke out the rest of the year. He hit .342 with 5 homers (and a ridiculous .441 OBP) in July, .330 with 7 homers in August, and .370 with 3 homers in just 6 games in September. Montero is a great player who can overcome adversity at the plate.
Also, Montero has really improved defensively at catcher. He posted a .992 Fld% and threw out a decent 23% of attempted base stealers. It's hard to tell whether he'll ever be a full-time catcher (like Jorge Posada has been the past several years), but he could certainly catch a good 80 or 90 games for the Yankees in '10. Posada could catch most of the others.
Speaking of Posada, he has really declined the past couple of years, as expected by an old catcher. Posada had the best year of his career at age 35 in '07, hitting .337 with 42 doubles, 20 homers, 90 RBI, and an incredible .426 OBP in 144 games. Then in '08, he got hurt, and hit .268 with 3 homers and 22 RBI in just 51 games. But, Posada got right back on track in '09, hitting .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 111 games. Then, Posada had a bad year in '10, hitting just .248 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, just 57 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 120 games. Don't even get me started defensively, as he has declined from a .994 Fld% and a 24% CS% in '07 to a .986 Fld% and just a 15% CS% in '10. Posada doesn't have much left. His contract is up after the 2011 season, during which he will turn 40. Posada's goodbye to baseball could be as a part-time catcher and DH (still getting 400 at-bats) with Montero being the nearly full-time catcher. Francisco Cervelli would also fit in as a backup catcher when Posada needs a day off.
Cervelli. He's so clutch, but so bad. He hit an OK .271 in '10, but with no homers. No homers! He did hit 11 doubles and 3 triples, drive in 38 runs, and post a .359 OBP in 93 games. He hit .316 with runners in scoring position, getting 25 hits for 37 RBI. He even hit .381 with 24 RBI with 2 outs and runners on scoring position. Where he really did his damage was with the bases loaded. In those situations, he hit .545 with 20 of his RBI. Cervelli was so clutch that he had more hits with runners on (40) than with the bases empty (32). He hit .290 with runners on and .250 with no one on base. He gets clutch hits with runners on base, but in pretty much every other situation he's terrible. Now, let's talk about his defense. He calls a great game and all that, but he was terrible defensively in '10. He posted just a .980 Fld% (worse than Posada!) with just a 14% CS% (also worst than Posada)! He's just bad. He did only allow 2 passed balls, and that is very good. Still, he barely deserves to be in the majors defensively and is just slightly better offensively. He's in no position to take away at-bats from Montero. Maybe he'll catch 30 games in '10.
So, Posada declining, Cervelli performing below the league average, and Montero overcoming adversity and just being great amounts to Montero getting most of the at-bats at catcher. And, since Montero is just such a great hitter, my prediction is that he will win the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year.
Let's start with Montero himself. He has great career minor league stats. He hit .326 with 34 doubles, 17 homers, 87 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 132 games for Low-A Charleston in '08. He did even better between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton in '09, hitting .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games. Those 2 seasons proved that he was a great prospect. But his 2010 season proved he will be a great major leaguer. His stats on the year were really good for Triple-A Scranton. He hit .289 with 34 doubles, 21 homers, 75 RBI, and a .353 OBP in 123 games. Those look like Montero's usual great stats, but they're differerent. Montero started off very slowly, hitting just .247 with 2 homers in April. But, if you thought that was bad, Montero had possibly the worst month in his pro career in May, hitting just .217 with only 1 homer. Montero was going through a tough stretch- he was facing adversity. And, he got through it. He hit .283 with 3 homers in June, showing flashes of his usual self. Then, he broke out the rest of the year. He hit .342 with 5 homers (and a ridiculous .441 OBP) in July, .330 with 7 homers in August, and .370 with 3 homers in just 6 games in September. Montero is a great player who can overcome adversity at the plate.
Also, Montero has really improved defensively at catcher. He posted a .992 Fld% and threw out a decent 23% of attempted base stealers. It's hard to tell whether he'll ever be a full-time catcher (like Jorge Posada has been the past several years), but he could certainly catch a good 80 or 90 games for the Yankees in '10. Posada could catch most of the others.
Speaking of Posada, he has really declined the past couple of years, as expected by an old catcher. Posada had the best year of his career at age 35 in '07, hitting .337 with 42 doubles, 20 homers, 90 RBI, and an incredible .426 OBP in 144 games. Then in '08, he got hurt, and hit .268 with 3 homers and 22 RBI in just 51 games. But, Posada got right back on track in '09, hitting .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 111 games. Then, Posada had a bad year in '10, hitting just .248 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, just 57 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 120 games. Don't even get me started defensively, as he has declined from a .994 Fld% and a 24% CS% in '07 to a .986 Fld% and just a 15% CS% in '10. Posada doesn't have much left. His contract is up after the 2011 season, during which he will turn 40. Posada's goodbye to baseball could be as a part-time catcher and DH (still getting 400 at-bats) with Montero being the nearly full-time catcher. Francisco Cervelli would also fit in as a backup catcher when Posada needs a day off.
Cervelli. He's so clutch, but so bad. He hit an OK .271 in '10, but with no homers. No homers! He did hit 11 doubles and 3 triples, drive in 38 runs, and post a .359 OBP in 93 games. He hit .316 with runners in scoring position, getting 25 hits for 37 RBI. He even hit .381 with 24 RBI with 2 outs and runners on scoring position. Where he really did his damage was with the bases loaded. In those situations, he hit .545 with 20 of his RBI. Cervelli was so clutch that he had more hits with runners on (40) than with the bases empty (32). He hit .290 with runners on and .250 with no one on base. He gets clutch hits with runners on base, but in pretty much every other situation he's terrible. Now, let's talk about his defense. He calls a great game and all that, but he was terrible defensively in '10. He posted just a .980 Fld% (worse than Posada!) with just a 14% CS% (also worst than Posada)! He's just bad. He did only allow 2 passed balls, and that is very good. Still, he barely deserves to be in the majors defensively and is just slightly better offensively. He's in no position to take away at-bats from Montero. Maybe he'll catch 30 games in '10.
So, Posada declining, Cervelli performing below the league average, and Montero overcoming adversity and just being great amounts to Montero getting most of the at-bats at catcher. And, since Montero is just such a great hitter, my prediction is that he will win the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
What if Joba did have to come up to bat?
In Monday's 3-1 loss to the Tigers, Derek Jeter grounded into a game-ending double play with Joba Chamberlain on double deck. If you weren't watching the game, Alex Rodriguez left the game with a calf injury and was replaced by Ramiro Pena. Pena was then pinch-hit for by Marcus Thames and Francisco Cervelli moved from catcher to 3rd base to replace Thames and Jorge Posada moved from DH to catcher to replace Cervelli, so the Yankees lost their DH. The Yankees had a empty bench because Lance Berkman was injured and Nick Swisher had also left the game with right forearm tightness and Austin Kearns went to RF to replace him. So, let's say that Jeter beat out the relay throw to 1st (he actually almost did because Brett Gardner took 2B Carlos Guillen out at 2nd base). Then, it would be 1st and 3rd with 2 outs, a 3-2 score, and Mark Teixeira coming to the plate. The Tigers would then obviously intentionally walk Teix to bring up Joba with the bases loaded. What would the Yankees do?
The first thought would be to pinch-hit Berkman even though he was injured, but Girardi wouldn't do that because he wouldn't want to gamble with the rest of Berman's season to win one game. So, the only possible pinch-hitters were all pitchers. If the Yankees did decide to pinch-hit, it would have probably been either CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, or Mariano Rivera.
Joba is 0 for 5 at the plate in his MLB career with a walk and 2 sac bunts. He never had an AB in the minors.
CC is 25 for 97 (.258) in his career with 3 homers and 14 RBI. He's a decent hitter. But, he was the next day's starter.
AJ is 35 for 267 in his career (.131) with 3 homers and 9 RBI. He's not the worst hitter ever.
Mo is 0 for 3 with a walk and an RBI. You may remember his bases loaded walk against K-rod on the same night that he got his 500th save. Would the Yankees hope for the same magic? If he did walk (or get a base hit), he would stay in the game to pitch the 10th.
I would pinch-hit CC. If Valverde gave him a hittable pitch, CC could have gotten a walk-off hit. He probably would have gotten out, but you never know. If Girardi didn't want to take a chance that CC could get hurt, he would have either stuck with Joba or sent up Mo because there was no point of sending up Burnett. No matter who the Yankees sent up, the Yankees would have probably lost the game anyway, but who knows? Maybe Valverde's wildness could have continued and he walked whoever the Yankees sent up to bat, or, maybe he could have given CC, Joba, or Mo a mistake pitch and most unlikely walkoff ever could have occurred. It sure would have been a sight to see.
The first thought would be to pinch-hit Berkman even though he was injured, but Girardi wouldn't do that because he wouldn't want to gamble with the rest of Berman's season to win one game. So, the only possible pinch-hitters were all pitchers. If the Yankees did decide to pinch-hit, it would have probably been either CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, or Mariano Rivera.
Joba is 0 for 5 at the plate in his MLB career with a walk and 2 sac bunts. He never had an AB in the minors.
CC is 25 for 97 (.258) in his career with 3 homers and 14 RBI. He's a decent hitter. But, he was the next day's starter.
AJ is 35 for 267 in his career (.131) with 3 homers and 9 RBI. He's not the worst hitter ever.
Mo is 0 for 3 with a walk and an RBI. You may remember his bases loaded walk against K-rod on the same night that he got his 500th save. Would the Yankees hope for the same magic? If he did walk (or get a base hit), he would stay in the game to pitch the 10th.
I would pinch-hit CC. If Valverde gave him a hittable pitch, CC could have gotten a walk-off hit. He probably would have gotten out, but you never know. If Girardi didn't want to take a chance that CC could get hurt, he would have either stuck with Joba or sent up Mo because there was no point of sending up Burnett. No matter who the Yankees sent up, the Yankees would have probably lost the game anyway, but who knows? Maybe Valverde's wildness could have continued and he walked whoever the Yankees sent up to bat, or, maybe he could have given CC, Joba, or Mo a mistake pitch and most unlikely walkoff ever could have occurred. It sure would have been a sight to see.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Who will be the next Yankee catcher after Posada?
Jorge Posada is 38 years old and his contract expires after 2011. He will certainly retire after that contract is up. Is it too soon to talk about the next Yankee catcher?
Let's start with Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli is currently 24 years old. Cervelli never put up good minor league stats as his career high for homers in a season was just 3. But, he has done well so far in the majors. In '09 he hit .298 with 4 doubles, 1 homer, 11 RBI, and a .309 OBP. He posted a .995 Fld% at catcher with an incredible 43% CS%. He's gotten off to a great offensive start in '10, hitting .400 with 1 double, 0 homers, 12 RBI, and a .481 OBP. He has posted an 1.000 Fld% an catcher, but he has not thrown out an attempted base stealer yet in 6 tries. That CS% of 0% will definitely improve. Cervelli has filled in very well when Posada has been hurt, but could he be a full-time catcher?
Next, let's talk about the high-profile catching prospect Jesus Montero. He is currently 20 years old. He has done well in the minors the past few years. In '09 between High-A and Double-A, Montero hit .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games. He posted a .996 Fld% at catcher with a 20% CS%. But, Montero is struggling at Triple-A right now, hitting just .234 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 11 RBI, and a .294 OBP in 25 games. He has posted a .989 Fld% with a 25% CS%. The thing was Montero is that a lot of people consider him a CINO- a catcher in name only. Those people believe that Montero, who is 6 feet, 4 inches tall, has no future at catcher and will move to another position and/or be a DH. Theoretically, Montero could be the Yankee DH with Cervelli or Romine (who I will mention next) at catcher. So, will he even be a catcher when he reaches the majors? Montero reminds me of a former catcher who really jumped around and played every position, B.J. Surhoff, who is 6 feet, 1 inch tall. Surhoff started as a catcher, but during his career ended up playing every position other than pitcher. Surhoff had a pretty successful career, hitting .282 with 188 homers. But, Surhoff had a dimension to his game that Montero definitely does not have, as he had 141 stolen bases during his career including 21 in 1988 when he was still primarily a catcher. Surhoff's best overall year was in 1999 with Baltimore, when he hit .308 with 38 doubles, 28 homers, 107 RBI, 5 SB, and a .347 OBP. Those numbers are resonable for Montero (besides maybe the SB's). Again, Surhoff was a good player, but considering Montero's potential, the Yankee might want to be more careful with him than the Brewers were with Surhoff. After hitting .332 at Low-A in 1985 and .308 in Triple-A in '86, Surhoff was promoted to the majors and didn't play in the minors until 1994 when he played 8 games in the minors (maybe it was a rehab assignment). I hope the Yankees know what happened to Surhoff and will be a little more careful with Montero.
Austin Romine is another Yankee catching prospect, but he's not considered a CINO. He's currently 21 years old. Romine has done pretty well in the minors. In '09 at High-A, he hit .276 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 72 RBI, and a .322 OBP in 118 games. He posted just a .984 Fld% at catcher including 11 passed balls, but he also threw out 30% of attempted base stealers. Romine has gotten off to a hot start in '10, hitting .326 through 24 games at Double-A, with 9 doubles, 3 homers, 18 RBI, and a .396 OBP. He has posted a .994 Fld% at catcher and a 19% CS%. Romine might be the best candidate to be the next Yankee catcher, but he hasn't played above Double-A yet.
Cervelli might not be able to be more than a backup and Montero might not be a catcher when he reaches the majors. Assuming all 3 have a future with the Yankees, I would say that in 2012, Cervelli will probably start the year as the starter, Montero would be the DH, and Romine would start in the minors and come up to the majors to become the starter if necessary.
Friday, May 7, 2010
What will the Yankees do with 3/4 of the Core 4 hurt?
Jorge Posada is hurt with a calf injury. Mariano Rivera has missed time with a side injury. Andy Pettitte will miss at least one start. What will the Yankees do without them?
Francisco Cervelli has done well so far filling in for Posada. He is hitting .371 with 0 homers, 6 RBI, and a .436 OBP. He has posted an 1.000 Fld% at catcher so far, but he has not thrown out any attempted basestealers yet. He is a fine backup, but not nearly as good as Posada. Posada has hit .290 so far with 5 homers, 12 RBI, and a .364 OBP. He has posted just a .984 Fld% at catcher, but he does have a 21% CS%. Posada hopefully will be back for at least one game in the Boston series, which starts tonight. The Yanks obviously aren't as good with Cervelli behind the plate, but they'll be okay.
Joba Chamberlain has done pretty well as the Yankee setup man and filled in very well for Rivera as the Yankee closer in the recent Orioles series. He's is 0-1 with a 2.92 ERA, 13 K's, and 2 saves in 13 relief appearances and 12.1 IP so far in '09. Both of his saves were in the Baltimore series. During his 2 saves, he pitched 2 innings, giving up only 1 hit and 1 walk, and strking out 3. Rivera should be back for tonight's game if necessary, but we know that Joba can fill in at closer. Granted, Rivera is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA with 9 K's and 7 saves in 10 relief apearances and 10 IP, but Joba could do fine as the closer if he's needed.
The situation with Pettitte is more complicated. Javier Vazquez isn't hurt, but he's performed so badly (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/636845-whats-javier-vazquez-trade-value) that his start will be skipped or at least delayed in addition to Pettitte. That makes 2 total spot-starts. Sergio Mitre, who is 0-0 with a 2.79 ERA in 5 relief appearances in '09, will make one of the spot starts. But, what about the other? Could it be Alfredo Aceves? Aceves is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in 9 relief appearances and 11 IP. Aceves did make 1 start in '09 and 4 starts in '08. Aceves hasn't even had a 3 inning appearance this year, so maybe he couldn't start a game. Vazquez might have to start a game after the Boston serie because of the Pettitte injury. Or, the Yankees could call up one of the prospects mentioned in the link above, Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister. Considering Nova is now 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA and McAllister, after a bad start, is now 0-2 with a 5.52 ERA, Nova would be much more likely to get the call. The Yankees would probably send down backup OF Greg Golson if they bring up Nova. Pettitte is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 6 starts, so it would be tough shoes for anyone to fill. Hopefully whoever spot-starts can give the Yankees 5 decent innings.
No team in the majors is as good when key players are injured. That's the case with the Yankees, with Posada (hopefully back very soon), Pettitte, and Curtis Granderson all injured right now (in additon to Park, but he's not a key player). The players filling in hopefully can do a decent job. The Yankees are still a very good team, and they will definitely compete. It will just be a bit harder.
(This is the post about the situation with Granderson injured: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/635445-with-cg-hurt-hows-the-yankee-of-situation-going-to-look)
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