Before the 2009 season, the Yankees traded top prospect CF Austin Jackson and LH reliever Phil Coke to Detroit and RHP Ian Kennedy to Arizona in exchange for Curtis Granderson. The Tigers also traded RHP Edwin Jackson for RHP Max Scherzer and LH reliever Daniel Schlereth.
Why did the Yankees do the trade? They already had a top-flight centerfielder in Jackson who was ready for the majors!
Yesterday I was thinking and it finally came to me- Brett Gardner was the key to the trade for the Yankees. (Wait, what?) Yes, Brett Gardner, who wasn't even part of the trade, was the key to the trade for them. We'll get back to this point in a moment. First, let's analyze the trade for all the teams involved.
Jackson had a great rookie year, .293 with 34 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 10 triples, 181 hits, 103 runs, 27 SB, and a .345 OBP in 151 games. But, he led the AL with 170 strikeouts. How can a player with just 4 homers lead the AL in strikeouts? But, you could argue, he still hit .293. Well, let's compare Jackson to Curtis Granderson. Granderson led the AL in strikeouts in '06, his first full season, hitting .260. But, the next season in '07, he finished 7th in the league in strikeouts and hit .302. But, in '08 he hit .280, and in '09 and '10, he has hit under .250. Will the same thing happen to Jackson? For the time being at least, he's a good player.
Granderson missed time with a groin injury in '10, but Kevin Long fixed his swing and he had a nice year. He hit .247 with 17 doubles, 24 homers, 67 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 12 SB, and a .324 OBP in 136 games. He struck out 116 times. He hit .249 with 30 homers and 71 RBI in 160 games in '09, striking out 141 times. He is what he is. He's a good defensive CF with a lot of power and some speed. He of course strikes out a lot, but he's a good player.
Coke had a pretty good year as a workhorse lefty reliever, going 7-5 with a 3.76 ERA, 53 'K's, and 2 saves in 73 relief appearances, 1 start, and 64.2 IP. He walked only 26 for a 2-1 K/BB ratio, and allowed just 2 homers, but he allowed 67 hits, more than a hit per inning. It was better than his '09 season when he went 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 72 relief appearances for the Yankees, giving up 10 home runs. Strangely, he allowed just 44 hits in 60 IP. The Yankees clearly traded Coke because he's just not good. They were able to acquire Boone Logan, so they don't even miss him.
Kennedy had a good rookie season for the Diamondbacks, going 9-10 with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's in 32 starts and 194 IP. He also allowed just 163 hits, way less than a hit per inning, and 70 walks, good for a better than 2-1 K/BB ratio. But, he gave up 26 home runs and led the NL with 16 wild pitches. He's an OK pitcher. The Yankees didn't think he was of any use to them, so they traded him. They knew they had guys like Ivan Nova and Andrew Brackman coming up from the minors. It did turn out that they could have used him after Vazquez was a disaster.
Edwin Jackson had a very interesting season. He went 6-10 with a 5.16 ERA for Arizona and 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA after being traded to the Chicago White Sox. He threw a no-hitter, but he allowed 8 walks and threw 149 pitches. He struck out 181, but he walked 70, allowed more than a hit per inning, and he allowed 21 home runs. The trade was a disaster for Arizona.
Scherzer had a good season for Detroit, going 12-11 with a 3.50 ERA and 184 K's in 31 starts and 195.2 IP. He allowed just 174 hits, way less than a hit per inning. Scherzer did walk 70, but he still had a K/BB ratio better than 2.5. Detroit made a great deal in getting this guy.
Schlereth had a good season at Triple-A Toledo, going 1-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 60 K's in 39 relief appearances and 49.1 IP. But, he walked 34, a high average of 6.2 per 9. He did well in a big league tryout for Detroit, going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 18 relief appearances. He's a pretty good prospect, but he definitely has to work on his control.
It's clear who the winner is in this trade. The Tigers traded away 2 veterans in Granderson and Edwin Jackson for a starting CF in Austin Jackson that's a very different player than Granderson, but just as good, a starter pitcher in Scherzer that's probably better than Edwin Jackson, a lefty to be in the bullpen now in Coke, and a lefty that will be in the bullpen soon, in Schlereth. They are the clear winners in this trade. The Yankees got their guy in Granderson, and he did well, so it apparently wasn't a terrible trade for them. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks had just a terrible trade, as Edwin Jackson under-performed for them. Although Kennedy did well, they gave up a good big league pitcher in Scherzer and a lefty reliever who could eventually be a setup man, and maybe even a closer.
So, now to Brett Gardner, the key to the trade for the Yankees. Austin Jackson is a good player, but he has so little power. So does Gardner. Did the Yankees need both Jackson and Gardner? No. They would have had a very speedy outfield, but they would've had 2 starting players with 5 or less homers. When was the last time the Yankees had 2 guys like that? 1997, when Joe Girardi, Luis Sojo, and Tim Raines had 1, 2, and 4 homers respectively. Even then, Sojo and Raines both played under 80 games. In 1996, the Yankees had Girardi and Mariano Duncan who both hit 2 homers in addition to Gerald Williams who hit 5 homers in 99 games. Clearly, the Yankees can win with 2 players like that, but they probably preferred not to. Jackson was a more tradable player so they traded him instead of Gardner. In Granderson, the Yankees acquired a player with power who was a great hitter for Yankee stadium. The Yankees don't play small ball- they play "power ball". The Yankees probably would've liked to keep Coke, but they were willing to trade him (and Kennedy, who they had no use for) to do the Austin Jackson- Granderson swap. Jackson is a triples hitter, so he's great for Comerica, while Granderson has enough power to hit 35 homers in Yankee Stadium. Although there's no way to say that the Tigers weren't the winners in this trade, the Yankees accomplished exactly what they wanted so it was a good trade for them as well.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Yankees decline options on Berkman, Johnson
The Yankees have declined their options on designated hitters Lance Berkman and Nick Johnson. What does that mean for 2011?
I think that there are 2 possibilites: either that the Yankees will use a combination of Jesus Montero and Jorge Posada at catcher and DH, or the Yankees are about to sign a big name free agent to be the DH. Let's go through both possibilities.
Jessus Montero is ready. As I said in my recent post "Introducing the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero", Montero is a just a great hitter and an improving defensive catcher. He overcame a terrible start at Triple-A to still put up his usual great year. Posada certainly isn't the player he once was, but he still hit 18 homers in '10. Maybe he could hit 25 or more homers if he catches much less. But, to advocate against it, he hit a homer every 25.5 at-bats as a DH versus every 20.77 at-bats as a catcher. But, since the Yankees have to have Posada on the roster (he's not just going to retire with another year on his contract, and he's untradable), they might as well DH him as often as possible so they don't have to deal with his terrible defense (.986 Fld%, 15% CS%). It will be a nice send-off for Posada, and a nice experience for Montero.
Or, the Yankees could look to the free agent market for an answer at DH. Montero will be in the big leagues in '10, so he will be the starter at catcher, with Posada backing him up and playing some DH, and the free agent playing mostly DH, with some games at his natural position. Let's look at some options for that potential free agent.
Adam Dunn: Dunn is a 40+ homer who plays terrible defense. He hit .260 with 38 homers and 103 RBI in '10 and a .267 with 38 and 105 RBI in '09. The previous 4 years before that, he hit exactly 40 homers every year. He's a very consistent hitter. Just how bad is he defensively? He did post a just a slightly below average Fld% (.990) at 1B in '10! Well, in '09, he posted a terrible .986 Fld% at 1B, a terrrible .953 Fld% in LF, and a disastrous .935 Fld% in RF. He can play the field if neccesary, but it's better to have him DH. Of course, he will command a big contract. Also, what will you do with Posada if Dunn is playing every day? I don't think Dunn is a good option.
Johnny Damon: Damon said that he would want to come back to the Yankees, and he may have a chance. After a bad year, the Yankees might be one of a few teams willing to give him even semi-regular playing time. Damon hit just .271 in '10, with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 51 RBI, 11 SB, 81 runs, and a .355 OBP in 145 games with the TIgers. The Yankees could use Damon as a backup outfielder and a part-time DH along with Posada. He did hit .417 as a substitute player in the middle of a game in '10. Also, Damon got just 8 million dollars from the Tigers after hitting .282 with 28 homers and 82 RBI in '09. He could be a huge bargain for the Yankees. I'm not sure if it's a great fit, but it could work.
Hideki Matsui: Would Matsui come back to the Yankees? He had a pretty good year with the Angels in '10 at age 36, hitting .274 with 21 homers and 84 RBI. But, would he be OK with moving down in the batting order? Even if Matsui became the regular DH for the Yankees again, Posada would take away some DH at-bats and he would hit 6th or 7th. I don't think could work.
Jim Thome: Thome had a pretty good year in '10, with Thome hitting .283 with 25 homers and 59 RBI at age 39. He coul command a relatively big contract, at least for a player his age. He has some pop, but would he be a part time player on the Yankees if another team offers him a starting DH job? I would seriously doubt it.
None of the free agents are a great option, and of course, before possibly signing any of these free agents, the Yankees have to work on re-signing Jeter and Rivera, and signing Cliff Lee (or trading for some other top-flight pitcher). That's a pretty a pretty big obstacle, so I think the Yankees will do the 1st option: Montero and Posada and catcher and DH. With that being said, the Yankees will put their best possible team out there. If Cashman sees a fit in one of the free agents, he won't be afraid to sign him and greatly reduce Posada's at-bats. I still think the Yankees will go with Montero at catcher, Posada at catcher and DH, and a guy like Marcus Thames getting some DH at-bats as well.
I think that there are 2 possibilites: either that the Yankees will use a combination of Jesus Montero and Jorge Posada at catcher and DH, or the Yankees are about to sign a big name free agent to be the DH. Let's go through both possibilities.
Jessus Montero is ready. As I said in my recent post "Introducing the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero", Montero is a just a great hitter and an improving defensive catcher. He overcame a terrible start at Triple-A to still put up his usual great year. Posada certainly isn't the player he once was, but he still hit 18 homers in '10. Maybe he could hit 25 or more homers if he catches much less. But, to advocate against it, he hit a homer every 25.5 at-bats as a DH versus every 20.77 at-bats as a catcher. But, since the Yankees have to have Posada on the roster (he's not just going to retire with another year on his contract, and he's untradable), they might as well DH him as often as possible so they don't have to deal with his terrible defense (.986 Fld%, 15% CS%). It will be a nice send-off for Posada, and a nice experience for Montero.
Or, the Yankees could look to the free agent market for an answer at DH. Montero will be in the big leagues in '10, so he will be the starter at catcher, with Posada backing him up and playing some DH, and the free agent playing mostly DH, with some games at his natural position. Let's look at some options for that potential free agent.
Adam Dunn: Dunn is a 40+ homer who plays terrible defense. He hit .260 with 38 homers and 103 RBI in '10 and a .267 with 38 and 105 RBI in '09. The previous 4 years before that, he hit exactly 40 homers every year. He's a very consistent hitter. Just how bad is he defensively? He did post a just a slightly below average Fld% (.990) at 1B in '10! Well, in '09, he posted a terrible .986 Fld% at 1B, a terrrible .953 Fld% in LF, and a disastrous .935 Fld% in RF. He can play the field if neccesary, but it's better to have him DH. Of course, he will command a big contract. Also, what will you do with Posada if Dunn is playing every day? I don't think Dunn is a good option.
Johnny Damon: Damon said that he would want to come back to the Yankees, and he may have a chance. After a bad year, the Yankees might be one of a few teams willing to give him even semi-regular playing time. Damon hit just .271 in '10, with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 51 RBI, 11 SB, 81 runs, and a .355 OBP in 145 games with the TIgers. The Yankees could use Damon as a backup outfielder and a part-time DH along with Posada. He did hit .417 as a substitute player in the middle of a game in '10. Also, Damon got just 8 million dollars from the Tigers after hitting .282 with 28 homers and 82 RBI in '09. He could be a huge bargain for the Yankees. I'm not sure if it's a great fit, but it could work.
Hideki Matsui: Would Matsui come back to the Yankees? He had a pretty good year with the Angels in '10 at age 36, hitting .274 with 21 homers and 84 RBI. But, would he be OK with moving down in the batting order? Even if Matsui became the regular DH for the Yankees again, Posada would take away some DH at-bats and he would hit 6th or 7th. I don't think could work.
Jim Thome: Thome had a pretty good year in '10, with Thome hitting .283 with 25 homers and 59 RBI at age 39. He coul command a relatively big contract, at least for a player his age. He has some pop, but would he be a part time player on the Yankees if another team offers him a starting DH job? I would seriously doubt it.
None of the free agents are a great option, and of course, before possibly signing any of these free agents, the Yankees have to work on re-signing Jeter and Rivera, and signing Cliff Lee (or trading for some other top-flight pitcher). That's a pretty a pretty big obstacle, so I think the Yankees will do the 1st option: Montero and Posada and catcher and DH. With that being said, the Yankees will put their best possible team out there. If Cashman sees a fit in one of the free agents, he won't be afraid to sign him and greatly reduce Posada's at-bats. I still think the Yankees will go with Montero at catcher, Posada at catcher and DH, and a guy like Marcus Thames getting some DH at-bats as well.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Who will win the World Series?
Giants-Rangers in the World Series. I want to find the person who predicted that matchup from the beginning of the playoffs, let alone at the beginning of the season. Anyway, who's going to win?
Catcher: Bengie Molina vs. Buster Posey
Molina is a 13-year veteran, and his age (35) definitely showed in '10. He hit just .249 with 12 doubles, 5 homers, 36 RBI, and just a .297 OBP in 118 games, ironically between the Giants and Rangers. But, he has played very well in the playoffs, hitting .357 with a homer and 2 RBI in the ALDS, and .313 with a homer and 5 RBI in the ALCS. He is still a good defensive catcher, as he posted a.993 Fld%, a 23% CS%, and just 4 passed balls. He still has some gas in the tank.
Posey, on the other hand, is playing his rookie season. And what a rookie season it was. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He has hit .282 with 3 RBI in the playoffs. Posey is also a very good diffensive catcher, as he posted a .991 Fld% in '10 with a 37% CS% and just 1 passed ball. He's a great player with a great career ahead of him.
Advantage: Giants
1st basemen: Mitch Moreland vs. Aubrey Huff
Moreland had a pretty good rookie season, hitting .255 with 4 doubles, 9 homers, 25 RBI, and a .364 OBP in 47 games. (Project thsoe numbers over a full season, and he would have hit .255 with 14 doubles, 31 homers, and 86 RBI.) He has hit .303 with 4 RBI in the playoffs. He has posted a pretty good .993 Fld% at 1B. He's a nice young player who has made Rangers fans all but forget Justin Smoak (traded in the Cliff Lee deal).
At 33, Huff is no longer in his prime, but if you looked at his numbers you wouldn't know. He had a great year in '10, hitting .290 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, and a .385 OBP in 157 games. He has done OK in the playoffs, hitting .256 with 4 RBI. He is a good defensive 1st baseman, as he posted a .996 Fld% in '10. Eventually, he's going to slow down, but not right now.
Advantage: Giants
2nd basemen: Ian Kinsler vs. Freddy Sanchez
Kinsler missed time with a groin injury, but still had a nice year. He hit .286 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 45 RBI, 15 SB, and a .382 OBP in 102 games. In '09, he went 30-30, hitting 31 homers and stealing 31 bases. He has had a great postseason, hitting .342 with 3 homers and 9 RBI. He is a pretty good defensive 2B, as he posted a slightly-above average .985 Fld%. He is a very good player and a feared hitter in the Rangers lineup.
Sanchez had a pretty good season in '10, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 111 games. He has hit .268 with an RBI in his first postseason. He is still a great defensive 2B, as he as posted a .991 Fld% in '10. He is hampered by a shoulder injury right now. Sanchez is a good player, especially in terms of BA and defense.
Advantage: Rangers
3rd basemen: Michael Young vs. Pablo Sandoval
Young had an great year in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doublles, 21 homers, 91 RBI, 99 runs, and a .330 OBP in 157 games. He has hit .255 with a homer and 7 RBI in the playoffs so far, but .333 in the ALCS. He's a slightly below average defensive 3B, as he posted a .950 Fld% there in '10. Young is still a great player, despite being past his prime and at his 3rd defensive position.
Sandoval had a very disappointing year in '10, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. That came one year after hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI and a .387 OBP in 153 games in '09. He has hit just .214 in the playoffs, but he had a key 2-run double in the NLCS. He's actualy a slighty above average 3B, as he posted a .961 Fld%. We know from '09 that Sandoval is a great player who can jump-start the Giants' lineup.
Advantage: Rangers
Shortstop: Elvis Andrus vs. Juan Uribe
Andrus had a nice Sophomore season in '10, hitting .265 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 35 RBI, 32 SB, 88 runs, and a .342 OBP in 147 games. He has hit .333 with 3 RBI and 7 SB in the playoffs, although he was picked off twice by the Yankees in the ALCS. He's an average defensive SS, as his .976 Fld% in '10 was .003 better than the league average at SS. He is a good leadoff hitter who sets the table for the big hitters behind him.
Suprisingly, almost shockingly, Uribe had the best season of his career as he entered his prime in '10. He hit just .248, but with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 85 RBI, and a .310 OBP in 148 games. But, he hit just .071 in the NLDS with an RBI and just ,214 with a homer and 3 RBI in the NLCS. He is a well above-average defensive SS, as he posted .984 Fld% there in '10, in addition to a .957 Fld% at 3B (slightly above average) and a 1.000 Fld% in 24 games at 2B. He's a good player.
Advantage: Toss-up. They're such different players.
Left Field: Nelson Cruz vs. Pat Burell
Cruz, despite missing time with a hamstring injury, had a great year in '10, hitting .318 with 31 doubles, 22 homers, 78 RBI, 17 SB, and a .374 OBP in 108 games. He's also been amazing in the playoffs, hitting .375 with 5 homers and 8 RBI. He's a below-average defender in RF (.979), but he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in LF during the regular season and has often played LF in the playoffs. He's a great player in the middle of the Texas lineup.
Burell had an OK year in '10, hitting .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between Tampa and Texas. He hit .200 with a homer and 3 RBI against the Braves in the NLDS, and .211 with an RBI against the Phillies, his former team, in the NLCS. He is an average fielder in LF, posting a .985 Fld%. Burell, at 33 years old, is in decline, but he still has some pop.
Advantage: Rangers
Centerfield: Josh Hamilton vs. Andres Torres:
Hamilton had a ridiculous year in '10, hitting .359 with 40 doubles, 32 homers, 100 RBI, 186 hits, 95 runs, and a .411 OBP in 133 games. He missed the vast majority of September with broken ribs that are still bothering him, at least to some extent. Not that it's possible to tell just from his playoff stats. After hitting just .111 with an RBI in the ALDS against the Rays, he exploded in the ALCS against the Yankees, hitting .350 with 4 homers and 7 RBI. He posted just a .979 Fld% in LF in '10, but a 1.000 Fld% in CF, where he has played in the playoffs. He is just an incredible player.
Torres had a good first full season in the big leagues at age 32. A former Ranger (8 games), Torres hit .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 SB, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. After hitting ,125 in the NLDS, he hit .350 in the NLCS. He has no homers or RBI's in the playoffs, and just 1 SB against 3 CS's. He is a great defensive CF, as he posted a .995 Fld% there in addition to 1.000 Fld%'s in RF and LF. He's a good player, but frankly, he's not anywhere near as good as Hamilton.
Advantage: Rangers
Right Field: David Murphy/Jeff Francoeur vs. Cody Ross
Murphy and Francoeur have been platooning in RF for the Rangers during the playoffs. Murphy, the lefty, hit .291 with 26 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 14 SB, and a .358 OBP in 138 games. He has hit .200 with a homer and 2 RBI in the playoffs so far. Francoeur, the righty, hit .249 with 18 doubles, 13 homers, 65 RBI, 8 SB, and a .300 OBP in 139 games between the Mets and Rangers. He has hit just .167 with an RBI in the playoffs. Murphy posted a .995 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions, while Francoeur, a one-time Gold Glover, posted a .988 Fld% in RF, but with 11 outfield assists, tops among NL right fielders. Murphy and Francoeur are OK players.
Ross hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 SB and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and the Giants. He's playing out of his mind in the playoffs right now, hitting .324 with 4 homers and 8 RBI. A natural CF (.994 career Fld%), Ross posted a below average .982 Fld% in RF. He's always been a good player (20 homers in '08 and '09), but right now he's becoming a playoff star.
Advantage: Giants
Total: Rangers 4, Giants 3, 1 toss-up
Vladimir Guerrero will be the DH for Texas. He had a truly great season, hitting .300 with 27 doubles, 29 homers, 115 RBI, 93 runs, and a .345 OBP. But, will the Rangers play him in RF in San Francisco? He posted just a .933 Fld% in 17 games in RF. He's a great hitter, but he could be just a pinch-hitter in San Francisco.
Pitchers:
Aces (Games 1 and 5 unless they go on short rest): Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum
Lee had somewhat of an off-year, going 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 185 K's in 28 starts and ironically 212.1 IP. He also had 7 complete games. Of course Lee is probably the best postseason pitcher ever. He went 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in the ALDS and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in the ALCS. For his career, he's 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in 8 starts. He's just ridiculous in the playoffs.
Lincecum also had an off-year '10, at least by his standards. The 2-time defending Cy Young Award winner went 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA and 231 K's (tops in the NL) in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's undoubtedly a great pitcher.
Advantage: Rangers
Number 2 starters (Games 2 and 6): C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Cain
Wilson had a great first full year as a starter. He went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 170 K's in 33 starts and 204 IP. He led the AL with 93 walks. He has 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a good pitcher, but he has to improve those playoff numbers.
Cain had a great season in '10, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA and 177 K's in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He has been untouchable, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts. He's a great pitcher that provides a very good 1-2 punch with Lincecum.
Advantage: Giants
Number 3 starters (games 3 and 7): Colby Lewis vs. Jonathan Sanchez
Lewis had a nice season in '10, going 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA and 196 K's in 32 starts and 202 IP. It was his first season in the majors since '07 because he was in Japan in '08 and '09. He has had an amazing postseason, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in 3 starts. He has played very well.
Sanchez had his first great year as a starter. He went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA and 205 K's in 33 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 193.1 IP. He has gone 0-1 with a 2.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a very good pitcher.
Advantage: Toss-up. Sanchez had a better regular season, but Lewis has been better in the playoffs.
Number 4 starters (game 4): Tommy Hunter vs. Madison Bumgarner
Hunter had a good year, going 13-4 with a 3.72 ERA and 68 K's in 22 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 128 innings. He missed April and May with an oblique injury. But, he has been killed in the playoffs, going 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA. He'll have to at least get back to his regular season numbers. He's an OK pitcher.
Bumgarner had a good year also, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA and 86 K's in 18 starts and 111 IP after being called up on June 26th. He has gone 0-0 with a 3.55 ERA in the playoffs. He's young, but he has pitched well.
Advantage: Giants
Total- Giants 4, Rangers 3 (let's say the 'advantage' pitchers win all their matchups and Lewis and Sanchez split their 2 games)
Bullpen:
Closer: Neftali Feliz vs. Brian Wilson
Feliz had a great rookie season, going 4-3 with a 2.73 ERA, 71 K's, and 40 saves in 70 relief appearances and 69.1 IP. He has gone 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA in the playoffs (no saves). He's a good young closer.
Wilson had a amazing season as the Giants' closer, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, and 48 saves in 70 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Those 48 saves led the NL. He has been perfect in the playoffs, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 5 saves. He might be the best closer in baseball right now.
Advantage: Giants
Other key members of bullpen:
Rangers: Darren O'Day (6-2, 2.03), Darren Oliver (Lefty; 1-2, 2.48), Alexi Ogando (4-1, 1.30)
Giants: Sergio Romo (5-3, 2.18), Santiago Casilla (7-2, 1.95), Javier Lopez (Lefty; 2-0, 1.42)
Advantage: Rangers
Prediction: Giants in 7- their starting pitching is better, and their hitting and bullpen aren't that much worse.
Catcher: Bengie Molina vs. Buster Posey
Molina is a 13-year veteran, and his age (35) definitely showed in '10. He hit just .249 with 12 doubles, 5 homers, 36 RBI, and just a .297 OBP in 118 games, ironically between the Giants and Rangers. But, he has played very well in the playoffs, hitting .357 with a homer and 2 RBI in the ALDS, and .313 with a homer and 5 RBI in the ALCS. He is still a good defensive catcher, as he posted a.993 Fld%, a 23% CS%, and just 4 passed balls. He still has some gas in the tank.
Posey, on the other hand, is playing his rookie season. And what a rookie season it was. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He has hit .282 with 3 RBI in the playoffs. Posey is also a very good diffensive catcher, as he posted a .991 Fld% in '10 with a 37% CS% and just 1 passed ball. He's a great player with a great career ahead of him.
Advantage: Giants
1st basemen: Mitch Moreland vs. Aubrey Huff
Moreland had a pretty good rookie season, hitting .255 with 4 doubles, 9 homers, 25 RBI, and a .364 OBP in 47 games. (Project thsoe numbers over a full season, and he would have hit .255 with 14 doubles, 31 homers, and 86 RBI.) He has hit .303 with 4 RBI in the playoffs. He has posted a pretty good .993 Fld% at 1B. He's a nice young player who has made Rangers fans all but forget Justin Smoak (traded in the Cliff Lee deal).
At 33, Huff is no longer in his prime, but if you looked at his numbers you wouldn't know. He had a great year in '10, hitting .290 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, and a .385 OBP in 157 games. He has done OK in the playoffs, hitting .256 with 4 RBI. He is a good defensive 1st baseman, as he posted a .996 Fld% in '10. Eventually, he's going to slow down, but not right now.
Advantage: Giants
2nd basemen: Ian Kinsler vs. Freddy Sanchez
Kinsler missed time with a groin injury, but still had a nice year. He hit .286 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 45 RBI, 15 SB, and a .382 OBP in 102 games. In '09, he went 30-30, hitting 31 homers and stealing 31 bases. He has had a great postseason, hitting .342 with 3 homers and 9 RBI. He is a pretty good defensive 2B, as he posted a slightly-above average .985 Fld%. He is a very good player and a feared hitter in the Rangers lineup.
Sanchez had a pretty good season in '10, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 111 games. He has hit .268 with an RBI in his first postseason. He is still a great defensive 2B, as he as posted a .991 Fld% in '10. He is hampered by a shoulder injury right now. Sanchez is a good player, especially in terms of BA and defense.
Advantage: Rangers
3rd basemen: Michael Young vs. Pablo Sandoval
Young had an great year in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doublles, 21 homers, 91 RBI, 99 runs, and a .330 OBP in 157 games. He has hit .255 with a homer and 7 RBI in the playoffs so far, but .333 in the ALCS. He's a slightly below average defensive 3B, as he posted a .950 Fld% there in '10. Young is still a great player, despite being past his prime and at his 3rd defensive position.
Sandoval had a very disappointing year in '10, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. That came one year after hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI and a .387 OBP in 153 games in '09. He has hit just .214 in the playoffs, but he had a key 2-run double in the NLCS. He's actualy a slighty above average 3B, as he posted a .961 Fld%. We know from '09 that Sandoval is a great player who can jump-start the Giants' lineup.
Advantage: Rangers
Shortstop: Elvis Andrus vs. Juan Uribe
Andrus had a nice Sophomore season in '10, hitting .265 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 35 RBI, 32 SB, 88 runs, and a .342 OBP in 147 games. He has hit .333 with 3 RBI and 7 SB in the playoffs, although he was picked off twice by the Yankees in the ALCS. He's an average defensive SS, as his .976 Fld% in '10 was .003 better than the league average at SS. He is a good leadoff hitter who sets the table for the big hitters behind him.
Suprisingly, almost shockingly, Uribe had the best season of his career as he entered his prime in '10. He hit just .248, but with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 85 RBI, and a .310 OBP in 148 games. But, he hit just .071 in the NLDS with an RBI and just ,214 with a homer and 3 RBI in the NLCS. He is a well above-average defensive SS, as he posted .984 Fld% there in '10, in addition to a .957 Fld% at 3B (slightly above average) and a 1.000 Fld% in 24 games at 2B. He's a good player.
Advantage: Toss-up. They're such different players.
Left Field: Nelson Cruz vs. Pat Burell
Cruz, despite missing time with a hamstring injury, had a great year in '10, hitting .318 with 31 doubles, 22 homers, 78 RBI, 17 SB, and a .374 OBP in 108 games. He's also been amazing in the playoffs, hitting .375 with 5 homers and 8 RBI. He's a below-average defender in RF (.979), but he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in LF during the regular season and has often played LF in the playoffs. He's a great player in the middle of the Texas lineup.
Burell had an OK year in '10, hitting .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between Tampa and Texas. He hit .200 with a homer and 3 RBI against the Braves in the NLDS, and .211 with an RBI against the Phillies, his former team, in the NLCS. He is an average fielder in LF, posting a .985 Fld%. Burell, at 33 years old, is in decline, but he still has some pop.
Advantage: Rangers
Centerfield: Josh Hamilton vs. Andres Torres:
Hamilton had a ridiculous year in '10, hitting .359 with 40 doubles, 32 homers, 100 RBI, 186 hits, 95 runs, and a .411 OBP in 133 games. He missed the vast majority of September with broken ribs that are still bothering him, at least to some extent. Not that it's possible to tell just from his playoff stats. After hitting just .111 with an RBI in the ALDS against the Rays, he exploded in the ALCS against the Yankees, hitting .350 with 4 homers and 7 RBI. He posted just a .979 Fld% in LF in '10, but a 1.000 Fld% in CF, where he has played in the playoffs. He is just an incredible player.
Torres had a good first full season in the big leagues at age 32. A former Ranger (8 games), Torres hit .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 SB, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. After hitting ,125 in the NLDS, he hit .350 in the NLCS. He has no homers or RBI's in the playoffs, and just 1 SB against 3 CS's. He is a great defensive CF, as he posted a .995 Fld% there in addition to 1.000 Fld%'s in RF and LF. He's a good player, but frankly, he's not anywhere near as good as Hamilton.
Advantage: Rangers
Right Field: David Murphy/Jeff Francoeur vs. Cody Ross
Murphy and Francoeur have been platooning in RF for the Rangers during the playoffs. Murphy, the lefty, hit .291 with 26 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 14 SB, and a .358 OBP in 138 games. He has hit .200 with a homer and 2 RBI in the playoffs so far. Francoeur, the righty, hit .249 with 18 doubles, 13 homers, 65 RBI, 8 SB, and a .300 OBP in 139 games between the Mets and Rangers. He has hit just .167 with an RBI in the playoffs. Murphy posted a .995 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions, while Francoeur, a one-time Gold Glover, posted a .988 Fld% in RF, but with 11 outfield assists, tops among NL right fielders. Murphy and Francoeur are OK players.
Ross hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 SB and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and the Giants. He's playing out of his mind in the playoffs right now, hitting .324 with 4 homers and 8 RBI. A natural CF (.994 career Fld%), Ross posted a below average .982 Fld% in RF. He's always been a good player (20 homers in '08 and '09), but right now he's becoming a playoff star.
Advantage: Giants
Total: Rangers 4, Giants 3, 1 toss-up
Vladimir Guerrero will be the DH for Texas. He had a truly great season, hitting .300 with 27 doubles, 29 homers, 115 RBI, 93 runs, and a .345 OBP. But, will the Rangers play him in RF in San Francisco? He posted just a .933 Fld% in 17 games in RF. He's a great hitter, but he could be just a pinch-hitter in San Francisco.
Pitchers:
Aces (Games 1 and 5 unless they go on short rest): Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum
Lee had somewhat of an off-year, going 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 185 K's in 28 starts and ironically 212.1 IP. He also had 7 complete games. Of course Lee is probably the best postseason pitcher ever. He went 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in the ALDS and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in the ALCS. For his career, he's 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in 8 starts. He's just ridiculous in the playoffs.
Lincecum also had an off-year '10, at least by his standards. The 2-time defending Cy Young Award winner went 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA and 231 K's (tops in the NL) in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's undoubtedly a great pitcher.
Advantage: Rangers
Number 2 starters (Games 2 and 6): C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Cain
Wilson had a great first full year as a starter. He went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 170 K's in 33 starts and 204 IP. He led the AL with 93 walks. He has 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a good pitcher, but he has to improve those playoff numbers.
Cain had a great season in '10, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA and 177 K's in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He has been untouchable, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts. He's a great pitcher that provides a very good 1-2 punch with Lincecum.
Advantage: Giants
Number 3 starters (games 3 and 7): Colby Lewis vs. Jonathan Sanchez
Lewis had a nice season in '10, going 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA and 196 K's in 32 starts and 202 IP. It was his first season in the majors since '07 because he was in Japan in '08 and '09. He has had an amazing postseason, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in 3 starts. He has played very well.
Sanchez had his first great year as a starter. He went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA and 205 K's in 33 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 193.1 IP. He has gone 0-1 with a 2.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a very good pitcher.
Advantage: Toss-up. Sanchez had a better regular season, but Lewis has been better in the playoffs.
Number 4 starters (game 4): Tommy Hunter vs. Madison Bumgarner
Hunter had a good year, going 13-4 with a 3.72 ERA and 68 K's in 22 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 128 innings. He missed April and May with an oblique injury. But, he has been killed in the playoffs, going 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA. He'll have to at least get back to his regular season numbers. He's an OK pitcher.
Bumgarner had a good year also, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA and 86 K's in 18 starts and 111 IP after being called up on June 26th. He has gone 0-0 with a 3.55 ERA in the playoffs. He's young, but he has pitched well.
Advantage: Giants
Total- Giants 4, Rangers 3 (let's say the 'advantage' pitchers win all their matchups and Lewis and Sanchez split their 2 games)
Bullpen:
Closer: Neftali Feliz vs. Brian Wilson
Feliz had a great rookie season, going 4-3 with a 2.73 ERA, 71 K's, and 40 saves in 70 relief appearances and 69.1 IP. He has gone 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA in the playoffs (no saves). He's a good young closer.
Wilson had a amazing season as the Giants' closer, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, and 48 saves in 70 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Those 48 saves led the NL. He has been perfect in the playoffs, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 5 saves. He might be the best closer in baseball right now.
Advantage: Giants
Other key members of bullpen:
Rangers: Darren O'Day (6-2, 2.03), Darren Oliver (Lefty; 1-2, 2.48), Alexi Ogando (4-1, 1.30)
Giants: Sergio Romo (5-3, 2.18), Santiago Casilla (7-2, 1.95), Javier Lopez (Lefty; 2-0, 1.42)
Advantage: Rangers
Prediction: Giants in 7- their starting pitching is better, and their hitting and bullpen aren't that much worse.
Friday, October 22, 2010
Will the Yankees re-sign Melky Cabrera?
The Atlanta Braves have released 26 year old switch-hitting outfielder Melky Cabrera and 40 year old right-handed reliever Takashi Saito. Saito, despite his age, had a great year in '10, going 2-3 with a 2.83 ERA and 69 K's in 56 relief appearances and 54 IP with the Braves. Melky had a not-so-great season, hitting .255 with 27 doubles, 4 homers, 42 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and .317 OBP in 147 games. He also had an off-year defensively, posting a just average .988 Fld% in 84 games in LF, a way below average .971 Fld% in 55 games in CF. He did post a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 25 games in RF and have a total of 8 outfield assists. . Should the Yankees resign him?
Let's go back to Melky's years with the Yankees from 2005 to 2009. Melky had his first 'cup of coffee' in the big leagues in '05, hitting .211 in 6 games. He didn't make any errors in centerfield. In '06, Melky won the Yankee LF job. He hit .280 with 26 doubles, 7 homers, 50 RBI, 12 stolen bases, 75 runs, and a .360 OBP in 130 games. He posted a great .994 Fld% in LF and a .992 Fld% in the outfield overall. He led the AL with 12 outfield assists from left field. In '07, Melky became the Yankees' starting centerfielder. He had a nice season, hitting .273 with 24 doubles, 8 homers, 73 RBI, 13 stolen bases, 66 runs, and a .327 OBP in 150 games. He posted just a league-average .989 Fld% in CF, but he led the AL with 14 outfield assists from centerfield. Melky's career had gotten off to a promising start. Also, he turned just 23 in August of '07. It appeared that he was going to be a Yankee outfielder for a long time. He was a fan favorite and one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. He was so good that the Yankees didn't include him in a potential deal for Johan Santana.
But in '08, everything changed for Melky. He had his worst season, hitting just .249 with just 12 doubles, 8 homers, 37 RBI (half his '07 total), 9 stolen bases, just 42 runs, and worst of all a .301 OBP in 129 games. He even had an off-year defensively, posting a below average .985 Fld% in CF with just 7 outfield assists. It was so bad that after the season, the Yankees nearly traded Melky to the Brewers for Mike Cameron. But, they decided to hold on to him in the end.
In '09, Melky rewarded the Yankees for their dedication to him. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, 66 runs, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. But, strangely he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF (obviously tops in the league) but just 2 outfield assists from CF. With Melky having a high value and Brett Gardner ready to become a regular, the Yankees included Melky in the Javier Vazquez deal (Melky, LHP Mike Dunn, and RHP Arodys Vizcaino for Vazquez and Boone Logan.)
After Melky's bad '10, do the Yankees want him back? Even if he does come back, he will certainly never be a full-time starter again, pending an injury. But, he could be a very useful utility outfielder. Let me put it this way: Golson can't hit, Thames can't field, and Kearns is just bad. The Yankees could use a better all-around backup outfielder. The Yankees already have a great outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Swisher, so they don't need a guy like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. They just need one more piece to complete their outfield- a good all-around backup with some pop off the bench. There are other options available, but Melky could be that guy. I think they should re-sign him.
Let's go back to Melky's years with the Yankees from 2005 to 2009. Melky had his first 'cup of coffee' in the big leagues in '05, hitting .211 in 6 games. He didn't make any errors in centerfield. In '06, Melky won the Yankee LF job. He hit .280 with 26 doubles, 7 homers, 50 RBI, 12 stolen bases, 75 runs, and a .360 OBP in 130 games. He posted a great .994 Fld% in LF and a .992 Fld% in the outfield overall. He led the AL with 12 outfield assists from left field. In '07, Melky became the Yankees' starting centerfielder. He had a nice season, hitting .273 with 24 doubles, 8 homers, 73 RBI, 13 stolen bases, 66 runs, and a .327 OBP in 150 games. He posted just a league-average .989 Fld% in CF, but he led the AL with 14 outfield assists from centerfield. Melky's career had gotten off to a promising start. Also, he turned just 23 in August of '07. It appeared that he was going to be a Yankee outfielder for a long time. He was a fan favorite and one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. He was so good that the Yankees didn't include him in a potential deal for Johan Santana.
But in '08, everything changed for Melky. He had his worst season, hitting just .249 with just 12 doubles, 8 homers, 37 RBI (half his '07 total), 9 stolen bases, just 42 runs, and worst of all a .301 OBP in 129 games. He even had an off-year defensively, posting a below average .985 Fld% in CF with just 7 outfield assists. It was so bad that after the season, the Yankees nearly traded Melky to the Brewers for Mike Cameron. But, they decided to hold on to him in the end.
In '09, Melky rewarded the Yankees for their dedication to him. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, 66 runs, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. But, strangely he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF (obviously tops in the league) but just 2 outfield assists from CF. With Melky having a high value and Brett Gardner ready to become a regular, the Yankees included Melky in the Javier Vazquez deal (Melky, LHP Mike Dunn, and RHP Arodys Vizcaino for Vazquez and Boone Logan.)
After Melky's bad '10, do the Yankees want him back? Even if he does come back, he will certainly never be a full-time starter again, pending an injury. But, he could be a very useful utility outfielder. Let me put it this way: Golson can't hit, Thames can't field, and Kearns is just bad. The Yankees could use a better all-around backup outfielder. The Yankees already have a great outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Swisher, so they don't need a guy like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. They just need one more piece to complete their outfield- a good all-around backup with some pop off the bench. There are other options available, but Melky could be that guy. I think they should re-sign him.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Former Yankee prospect leads Oklahoma State to 6-0 record
QB Brandon Weeden has Oklahoma State on a roll. They're 6-0 and ranked No. 14 in the BCS rankings. Weeden has already passed for 1966 yards, 19 TD's and just 8 interceptions. Those 19 touchdowns lead the Big 12. He also leads the Big 12 in completion percentage (68.9) and passing efficiency (163.0). He has turned into a great college quarterback. But, he's a 27 year old Junior. Why? Well, if you read the title of this post, you know that he's a former Yankees prospect.
In 2002, Weeden was drafted out of high school by the Yankees with their 2nd round pick, their top pick that year. He had a nice debut in '02 at Rookie ball, going 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA, 30 K's, and 1 save in 7 starts, 4 relief appearancs and 34.2 IP. He allowed 29 hits, less than 1 per inning, and allowed just 1 home run. But, he allowed 16 walks, a ratio of 4.2 per 9 innings. In '03, Weeden did even better, going 2-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 38 K's in 9 starts, 3 relief appearnces, and 45.1 IP between Rookie ball and SS-A Staten Island at age 19. He appeared to be heading towards a great career for the Yankees. Then, everything change. In a move that was so Yankee-like, the Yankees traded Weeden, Jeff Weaver, and another prospect for a washed-up Kevin Brown. Weeden was never the same. After 3 straight years in the minors with ERA's over 5.00, Weeden retired at age 22.
In 2007, Weeden went back to college at Oklahoma State and redshirted in football. In '08, he threw 1 completion for 8 yards in addition to 2 incompletions. In '09, he went from nobody to at least somebody. With Zac Robinson injured, Weeden stepped up, going 15 for 24 with 4 touchdowns and just 1 interception in 3 games. That was enough for him to be named starter this season. Weeden realizes that pro football probably won't be his next profession. In fact, he is working on a pharmaceuticals degree and plans to be pharmacist. He'll go where his life takes him, on the field or off. But the future's still a little while away. Right now, he just has to work on beating Nebraska this Saturday and everything else will fall into place.
In 2002, Weeden was drafted out of high school by the Yankees with their 2nd round pick, their top pick that year. He had a nice debut in '02 at Rookie ball, going 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA, 30 K's, and 1 save in 7 starts, 4 relief appearancs and 34.2 IP. He allowed 29 hits, less than 1 per inning, and allowed just 1 home run. But, he allowed 16 walks, a ratio of 4.2 per 9 innings. In '03, Weeden did even better, going 2-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 38 K's in 9 starts, 3 relief appearnces, and 45.1 IP between Rookie ball and SS-A Staten Island at age 19. He appeared to be heading towards a great career for the Yankees. Then, everything change. In a move that was so Yankee-like, the Yankees traded Weeden, Jeff Weaver, and another prospect for a washed-up Kevin Brown. Weeden was never the same. After 3 straight years in the minors with ERA's over 5.00, Weeden retired at age 22.
In 2007, Weeden went back to college at Oklahoma State and redshirted in football. In '08, he threw 1 completion for 8 yards in addition to 2 incompletions. In '09, he went from nobody to at least somebody. With Zac Robinson injured, Weeden stepped up, going 15 for 24 with 4 touchdowns and just 1 interception in 3 games. That was enough for him to be named starter this season. Weeden realizes that pro football probably won't be his next profession. In fact, he is working on a pharmaceuticals degree and plans to be pharmacist. He'll go where his life takes him, on the field or off. But the future's still a little while away. Right now, he just has to work on beating Nebraska this Saturday and everything else will fall into place.
Introducing the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero
Jesus Montero will win the AL Rookie of the Year. Here's why.
Let's start with Montero himself. He has great career minor league stats. He hit .326 with 34 doubles, 17 homers, 87 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 132 games for Low-A Charleston in '08. He did even better between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton in '09, hitting .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games. Those 2 seasons proved that he was a great prospect. But his 2010 season proved he will be a great major leaguer. His stats on the year were really good for Triple-A Scranton. He hit .289 with 34 doubles, 21 homers, 75 RBI, and a .353 OBP in 123 games. Those look like Montero's usual great stats, but they're differerent. Montero started off very slowly, hitting just .247 with 2 homers in April. But, if you thought that was bad, Montero had possibly the worst month in his pro career in May, hitting just .217 with only 1 homer. Montero was going through a tough stretch- he was facing adversity. And, he got through it. He hit .283 with 3 homers in June, showing flashes of his usual self. Then, he broke out the rest of the year. He hit .342 with 5 homers (and a ridiculous .441 OBP) in July, .330 with 7 homers in August, and .370 with 3 homers in just 6 games in September. Montero is a great player who can overcome adversity at the plate.
Also, Montero has really improved defensively at catcher. He posted a .992 Fld% and threw out a decent 23% of attempted base stealers. It's hard to tell whether he'll ever be a full-time catcher (like Jorge Posada has been the past several years), but he could certainly catch a good 80 or 90 games for the Yankees in '10. Posada could catch most of the others.
Speaking of Posada, he has really declined the past couple of years, as expected by an old catcher. Posada had the best year of his career at age 35 in '07, hitting .337 with 42 doubles, 20 homers, 90 RBI, and an incredible .426 OBP in 144 games. Then in '08, he got hurt, and hit .268 with 3 homers and 22 RBI in just 51 games. But, Posada got right back on track in '09, hitting .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 111 games. Then, Posada had a bad year in '10, hitting just .248 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, just 57 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 120 games. Don't even get me started defensively, as he has declined from a .994 Fld% and a 24% CS% in '07 to a .986 Fld% and just a 15% CS% in '10. Posada doesn't have much left. His contract is up after the 2011 season, during which he will turn 40. Posada's goodbye to baseball could be as a part-time catcher and DH (still getting 400 at-bats) with Montero being the nearly full-time catcher. Francisco Cervelli would also fit in as a backup catcher when Posada needs a day off.
Cervelli. He's so clutch, but so bad. He hit an OK .271 in '10, but with no homers. No homers! He did hit 11 doubles and 3 triples, drive in 38 runs, and post a .359 OBP in 93 games. He hit .316 with runners in scoring position, getting 25 hits for 37 RBI. He even hit .381 with 24 RBI with 2 outs and runners on scoring position. Where he really did his damage was with the bases loaded. In those situations, he hit .545 with 20 of his RBI. Cervelli was so clutch that he had more hits with runners on (40) than with the bases empty (32). He hit .290 with runners on and .250 with no one on base. He gets clutch hits with runners on base, but in pretty much every other situation he's terrible. Now, let's talk about his defense. He calls a great game and all that, but he was terrible defensively in '10. He posted just a .980 Fld% (worse than Posada!) with just a 14% CS% (also worst than Posada)! He's just bad. He did only allow 2 passed balls, and that is very good. Still, he barely deserves to be in the majors defensively and is just slightly better offensively. He's in no position to take away at-bats from Montero. Maybe he'll catch 30 games in '10.
So, Posada declining, Cervelli performing below the league average, and Montero overcoming adversity and just being great amounts to Montero getting most of the at-bats at catcher. And, since Montero is just such a great hitter, my prediction is that he will win the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year.
Let's start with Montero himself. He has great career minor league stats. He hit .326 with 34 doubles, 17 homers, 87 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 132 games for Low-A Charleston in '08. He did even better between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton in '09, hitting .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games. Those 2 seasons proved that he was a great prospect. But his 2010 season proved he will be a great major leaguer. His stats on the year were really good for Triple-A Scranton. He hit .289 with 34 doubles, 21 homers, 75 RBI, and a .353 OBP in 123 games. Those look like Montero's usual great stats, but they're differerent. Montero started off very slowly, hitting just .247 with 2 homers in April. But, if you thought that was bad, Montero had possibly the worst month in his pro career in May, hitting just .217 with only 1 homer. Montero was going through a tough stretch- he was facing adversity. And, he got through it. He hit .283 with 3 homers in June, showing flashes of his usual self. Then, he broke out the rest of the year. He hit .342 with 5 homers (and a ridiculous .441 OBP) in July, .330 with 7 homers in August, and .370 with 3 homers in just 6 games in September. Montero is a great player who can overcome adversity at the plate.
Also, Montero has really improved defensively at catcher. He posted a .992 Fld% and threw out a decent 23% of attempted base stealers. It's hard to tell whether he'll ever be a full-time catcher (like Jorge Posada has been the past several years), but he could certainly catch a good 80 or 90 games for the Yankees in '10. Posada could catch most of the others.
Speaking of Posada, he has really declined the past couple of years, as expected by an old catcher. Posada had the best year of his career at age 35 in '07, hitting .337 with 42 doubles, 20 homers, 90 RBI, and an incredible .426 OBP in 144 games. Then in '08, he got hurt, and hit .268 with 3 homers and 22 RBI in just 51 games. But, Posada got right back on track in '09, hitting .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 111 games. Then, Posada had a bad year in '10, hitting just .248 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, just 57 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 120 games. Don't even get me started defensively, as he has declined from a .994 Fld% and a 24% CS% in '07 to a .986 Fld% and just a 15% CS% in '10. Posada doesn't have much left. His contract is up after the 2011 season, during which he will turn 40. Posada's goodbye to baseball could be as a part-time catcher and DH (still getting 400 at-bats) with Montero being the nearly full-time catcher. Francisco Cervelli would also fit in as a backup catcher when Posada needs a day off.
Cervelli. He's so clutch, but so bad. He hit an OK .271 in '10, but with no homers. No homers! He did hit 11 doubles and 3 triples, drive in 38 runs, and post a .359 OBP in 93 games. He hit .316 with runners in scoring position, getting 25 hits for 37 RBI. He even hit .381 with 24 RBI with 2 outs and runners on scoring position. Where he really did his damage was with the bases loaded. In those situations, he hit .545 with 20 of his RBI. Cervelli was so clutch that he had more hits with runners on (40) than with the bases empty (32). He hit .290 with runners on and .250 with no one on base. He gets clutch hits with runners on base, but in pretty much every other situation he's terrible. Now, let's talk about his defense. He calls a great game and all that, but he was terrible defensively in '10. He posted just a .980 Fld% (worse than Posada!) with just a 14% CS% (also worst than Posada)! He's just bad. He did only allow 2 passed balls, and that is very good. Still, he barely deserves to be in the majors defensively and is just slightly better offensively. He's in no position to take away at-bats from Montero. Maybe he'll catch 30 games in '10.
So, Posada declining, Cervelli performing below the league average, and Montero overcoming adversity and just being great amounts to Montero getting most of the at-bats at catcher. And, since Montero is just such a great hitter, my prediction is that he will win the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Should the Yankees have traded for Lee?
The Rangers acquired Cliff Lee in exchange for Justin Smoak and 3 other prospects. The Mariners thought it was a good offer, even better than the Yankees' offer of Jesus Montero and 3 other prospects. They must have thought that Smoak will be a star. Were they wrong?
Smoak was the 11th overall pick in the loaded first round of the 2008 MLB draft. There obviously were busts (most notably #1 overall pick Tim Beckham), but the players that have panned out are Pedro Alvarez (#2 overall), Brian Matusz (#4), Buster Posey (#5), and Gordon Beckham (#8). Ike Davis (#18) was drafted after Smoak. I realize that it's not completely fair to compare Smoak to the players, but let's do it anyway.
It took Alvarez just 1.5 seasons to get to the majors. He hit .288 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 126 games between Low-A Lynchburg and Double-A Altoona in '09. After hitting .277 with 15 doubles, 13 homers, 53 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 66 games for Triple-A Indianapolis, Alvarez was called up to the majors. Alvarez had a pretty good year after being called up on June 16th, hitting just .256, but with 21 doubles, 16 homers, and 64 RBI. His OBP was .326. He does need work defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at 3rd base. He will be just 23 in '11, so he will have time to develop into a better player both offensively and defensively at the major league level. Alvarez is a nice young player who will be a cornerstone of the Pirates for years to come.
Brian Matusz made it to the majors in under 1 season. After a dominating minor league season in '09 between Low-A Frederick and Double-A, Matusz made it to the majors at age 22. Matusz went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 121 K's in 19 starts and 113 innings in the minors, and 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 38 K's in 8 starts and and 44.2 IP in the majors. Matusz improved in '10, going 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA and 143 K's in 32 starts and 175.2 IP. Matusz was just 4-12 with a 5.28 ERA on August 13th, but went undefeated the rest of the year, going 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 8 starts. The Orioles won all 8 of those games. Matusz really has a promising future. Pretty soon he will be the Orioles' ace.
Buster Posey dominated the minors for parts of 3 seasons before making it to the majors at age 22. Unlike Alvarez and Matusz, Posey signed soon enough to play in '08. He played in 10 games between Rookie ball and SS-A Salem Keizer, hitting .351 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, and a .467 OBP. It was a sign of things to come. Posey had another great season in '09, hitting .325 with 31 doubles, 18 homers, 80 RBI, 84 runs, and a .416 OBP in 115 games between High-A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. But, Posey had 14 passed balls at catcher, so he began '10 at Fresno. He hit very well once again, hitting .349 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 32 RBI, and a .442 OBP in 47 games while only allowing one passed ball. He was then promoted to the majors, and is a candidate to win NL Rookie of the Year. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He posted a .991 Fld% at catcher, throwing out 37% of attempted base stealers, and allowing just 1 passed ball. He is a very talented player who will be the catcher for the Giants for a long time.
Gordon Beckham took just 1 full season in the minors to make the majors at age 22. After signing early enough to play in '08, Beckham hit .310 with 2 doubles, 3 homers, and 8 RBI, and a .365 OBP in 14 games at Low-A Kannapolis. It was a stepping stone to a great season. He hit .326 with 23 doubles, 4 homers, 25 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 45 games between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte before being promoted to the majors. He did OK in the majors, hitting .270 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 63 RBI, and a .347 OBP in 103 games. But, he posted a below-average .952 Fld% at 3rd base. He was the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year and finished 5th in the real voting. He had a bit of a sophmore slump in '10, hitting .252 with 25 doubles, 9 homers, 49 RBI, and a .317 OBP in 131 games. Part of the problem was that he was moved to 2nd base, where he posted a below average .981 Fld%. But, he hit .320 from July 20th to the end of the year. Whatever his problem was, he fixed it. He should be a White Sox' infielder for a long time. Despite his sub-par year, I wouldn't be too surprised if the White Sox lock him up long term.
Davis needed 1.5 full seasons in the minors before making the majors at age 23. He signed the earliest among this group, and ended up playing 58 games for SS-A Brooklyn and was a disappointment. He hit just .256 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 17 RBI, and a .326 OBP. But, that was the last time that Davis was a disappointment. He hit .298 in '09 between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton with 31 doubles, 20 homers, 71 RBI, and a .381 OBP in 114 games. After just 10 games for Triple-A Buffalo in '10 in which he hit .364 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 4 RBI, and a .500 OBP, Davis was promoted to the majors. He had a great rookie season, hitting .264 with 33 doubles, 19 homers, 71 RBI, and a .341 OBP in 147 games. He was right at the league average with a .993 Fld% at 1st base. I'll make a bold statement and say that he's the next David Wright. He'll be a fixture at 1st base for the Mets.
Well, I've gone through everybody else. So, how good is Smoak?
In his first taste of pro ball in '08, Smoak hit .304 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 6 RBI in 14 games at Low-A Clinton. He didn't make any errors in 10 games at 1st base. It was definitely a nice showing, albeit in such a short period of time.
In '09, Smoak worked his way all the way up to Triple-A. After hitting .667 with 2 homers and 5 RBI at Rookie ball, Smoak was promoted to Double-A Frisco where he hit .328 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, and a .449 OBP in 50 games. It was a great showing, and he appeared to be on the fast track to the majors. He was so good at Frisco that he was brought up to Triple-A Oklahoma City, but there he struggled. In 54 games, Smoak hit just .244 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, and 23 RBI. But, Smoak did post a .363 OBP,which was great when considering his Low BA. But, he was just 23 years old, so he could adjust to Triple-A in '10.
Did Smoak make that adjustment? Well, after 15 games at Oklahoma City, Smoak hit .300 with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 5 RBI before being rushed to the majors. Smoak had his moments with the Rangers, but mostly he struggled. He hit just .209, but with 10 doubles, 8 homers, and 34 RBI. He posted a .318 OBP. Then of course, he was traded to the Mariners in the Lee trade. He remained with the Mariners from July 10th to July 29th and struggled mightily. He hit just .159 with 1 double, 2 homers, and 5 RBI in 16 games. To compound the problem, he posted just a .169 OBP, walking once and striking out 23 skill. After that terrible showing, Smoak was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma. He did just OK for Tacoma, hitting .271 with 7 doubles, 7 homers, and 25 RBI, although he did post a .377 OBP. But, somehow the work at Triple-A helped him, and he was a different player when he came back to the majors on September 18th. He hit .340 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 14 games from September 18th to October 3rd. Overall in '10, Smoak hit .218 with 14 doubles, 13 homers, 48 RBI, and a .307 OBP in 100 games. It was a disappointment, but the Mariners hope his great finish to the year will carry over into '11. He will have 1 major league season under his belt (he will be 24), and the Mariners hope that experience will jump-start a great career.
Among the others, Smoak is certainly not the best right now. Posey is far and away the top player in this group, then Davis, Alvarez, and Beckham in that order before Smoak. But, does he have the ability to be a great player? Well, the Mariners must think so. If he really deserved the Teixeira comparisons he was getting while on the Rangers, then he will be a great player.
Will the Lee trade end up being a good trade for the Mariners? There are 3 other players that Seattle acquired, but the trade will end up being graded based on Smoak's performance. If he never becomes a star, it was a bad trade. As of now, if I were a Mariners fan, I would have wished for Lee to be traded to the Yankees for Montero.
Smoak was the 11th overall pick in the loaded first round of the 2008 MLB draft. There obviously were busts (most notably #1 overall pick Tim Beckham), but the players that have panned out are Pedro Alvarez (#2 overall), Brian Matusz (#4), Buster Posey (#5), and Gordon Beckham (#8). Ike Davis (#18) was drafted after Smoak. I realize that it's not completely fair to compare Smoak to the players, but let's do it anyway.
It took Alvarez just 1.5 seasons to get to the majors. He hit .288 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 126 games between Low-A Lynchburg and Double-A Altoona in '09. After hitting .277 with 15 doubles, 13 homers, 53 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 66 games for Triple-A Indianapolis, Alvarez was called up to the majors. Alvarez had a pretty good year after being called up on June 16th, hitting just .256, but with 21 doubles, 16 homers, and 64 RBI. His OBP was .326. He does need work defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at 3rd base. He will be just 23 in '11, so he will have time to develop into a better player both offensively and defensively at the major league level. Alvarez is a nice young player who will be a cornerstone of the Pirates for years to come.
Brian Matusz made it to the majors in under 1 season. After a dominating minor league season in '09 between Low-A Frederick and Double-A, Matusz made it to the majors at age 22. Matusz went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 121 K's in 19 starts and 113 innings in the minors, and 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 38 K's in 8 starts and and 44.2 IP in the majors. Matusz improved in '10, going 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA and 143 K's in 32 starts and 175.2 IP. Matusz was just 4-12 with a 5.28 ERA on August 13th, but went undefeated the rest of the year, going 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 8 starts. The Orioles won all 8 of those games. Matusz really has a promising future. Pretty soon he will be the Orioles' ace.
Buster Posey dominated the minors for parts of 3 seasons before making it to the majors at age 22. Unlike Alvarez and Matusz, Posey signed soon enough to play in '08. He played in 10 games between Rookie ball and SS-A Salem Keizer, hitting .351 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, and a .467 OBP. It was a sign of things to come. Posey had another great season in '09, hitting .325 with 31 doubles, 18 homers, 80 RBI, 84 runs, and a .416 OBP in 115 games between High-A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. But, Posey had 14 passed balls at catcher, so he began '10 at Fresno. He hit very well once again, hitting .349 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 32 RBI, and a .442 OBP in 47 games while only allowing one passed ball. He was then promoted to the majors, and is a candidate to win NL Rookie of the Year. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He posted a .991 Fld% at catcher, throwing out 37% of attempted base stealers, and allowing just 1 passed ball. He is a very talented player who will be the catcher for the Giants for a long time.
Gordon Beckham took just 1 full season in the minors to make the majors at age 22. After signing early enough to play in '08, Beckham hit .310 with 2 doubles, 3 homers, and 8 RBI, and a .365 OBP in 14 games at Low-A Kannapolis. It was a stepping stone to a great season. He hit .326 with 23 doubles, 4 homers, 25 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 45 games between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte before being promoted to the majors. He did OK in the majors, hitting .270 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 63 RBI, and a .347 OBP in 103 games. But, he posted a below-average .952 Fld% at 3rd base. He was the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year and finished 5th in the real voting. He had a bit of a sophmore slump in '10, hitting .252 with 25 doubles, 9 homers, 49 RBI, and a .317 OBP in 131 games. Part of the problem was that he was moved to 2nd base, where he posted a below average .981 Fld%. But, he hit .320 from July 20th to the end of the year. Whatever his problem was, he fixed it. He should be a White Sox' infielder for a long time. Despite his sub-par year, I wouldn't be too surprised if the White Sox lock him up long term.
Davis needed 1.5 full seasons in the minors before making the majors at age 23. He signed the earliest among this group, and ended up playing 58 games for SS-A Brooklyn and was a disappointment. He hit just .256 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 17 RBI, and a .326 OBP. But, that was the last time that Davis was a disappointment. He hit .298 in '09 between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton with 31 doubles, 20 homers, 71 RBI, and a .381 OBP in 114 games. After just 10 games for Triple-A Buffalo in '10 in which he hit .364 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 4 RBI, and a .500 OBP, Davis was promoted to the majors. He had a great rookie season, hitting .264 with 33 doubles, 19 homers, 71 RBI, and a .341 OBP in 147 games. He was right at the league average with a .993 Fld% at 1st base. I'll make a bold statement and say that he's the next David Wright. He'll be a fixture at 1st base for the Mets.
Well, I've gone through everybody else. So, how good is Smoak?
In his first taste of pro ball in '08, Smoak hit .304 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 6 RBI in 14 games at Low-A Clinton. He didn't make any errors in 10 games at 1st base. It was definitely a nice showing, albeit in such a short period of time.
In '09, Smoak worked his way all the way up to Triple-A. After hitting .667 with 2 homers and 5 RBI at Rookie ball, Smoak was promoted to Double-A Frisco where he hit .328 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, and a .449 OBP in 50 games. It was a great showing, and he appeared to be on the fast track to the majors. He was so good at Frisco that he was brought up to Triple-A Oklahoma City, but there he struggled. In 54 games, Smoak hit just .244 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, and 23 RBI. But, Smoak did post a .363 OBP,which was great when considering his Low BA. But, he was just 23 years old, so he could adjust to Triple-A in '10.
Did Smoak make that adjustment? Well, after 15 games at Oklahoma City, Smoak hit .300 with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 5 RBI before being rushed to the majors. Smoak had his moments with the Rangers, but mostly he struggled. He hit just .209, but with 10 doubles, 8 homers, and 34 RBI. He posted a .318 OBP. Then of course, he was traded to the Mariners in the Lee trade. He remained with the Mariners from July 10th to July 29th and struggled mightily. He hit just .159 with 1 double, 2 homers, and 5 RBI in 16 games. To compound the problem, he posted just a .169 OBP, walking once and striking out 23 skill. After that terrible showing, Smoak was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma. He did just OK for Tacoma, hitting .271 with 7 doubles, 7 homers, and 25 RBI, although he did post a .377 OBP. But, somehow the work at Triple-A helped him, and he was a different player when he came back to the majors on September 18th. He hit .340 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 14 games from September 18th to October 3rd. Overall in '10, Smoak hit .218 with 14 doubles, 13 homers, 48 RBI, and a .307 OBP in 100 games. It was a disappointment, but the Mariners hope his great finish to the year will carry over into '11. He will have 1 major league season under his belt (he will be 24), and the Mariners hope that experience will jump-start a great career.
Among the others, Smoak is certainly not the best right now. Posey is far and away the top player in this group, then Davis, Alvarez, and Beckham in that order before Smoak. But, does he have the ability to be a great player? Well, the Mariners must think so. If he really deserved the Teixeira comparisons he was getting while on the Rangers, then he will be a great player.
Will the Lee trade end up being a good trade for the Mariners? There are 3 other players that Seattle acquired, but the trade will end up being graded based on Smoak's performance. If he never becomes a star, it was a bad trade. As of now, if I were a Mariners fan, I would have wished for Lee to be traded to the Yankees for Montero.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Will Brandon Webb ever return to his previous form?
From 2003 to 2008, Brandon Webb was among the top 3 pitchers in the National League. Over that span, he went 87-62 with a 3.24 ERA. He finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2003, going 10-9 with a 2.84 ERA and 172 K's in 28 starts, 1 relief apperance, and 180.1 IP. In '04, Webb went just 7-16, but that was because he was on a terrible team that lost a staggering 111 games. He posted a 3.59 ERA and 164 K's in 35 starts and 208 IP. If Webb did have an Achilles' heel that season, it was his control: his walk total was 119, tops in the NL, an average of 5.1 per 9 innings, and he threw 17 wild pitches, also tops in the NL. Still, his 7 wins were 2nd on the team to Randy Johnson's improbable 16 wins on one of the worst teams ever. Webb didn't let the 16 losses haunt him in '05. He had a good year, going 14-12 with a 3.54 ERA and 172 K's in 33 starts and 229 IP. He improved his walk rate to just 2.3 per 9. '05 served as a stepping stone for years to come.
In '06, Webb came out of nowhere (at least in the eyes of non-Diamondbacks fans) to win the NL Cy Young Award. He went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 178 K's in 33 starts and 235 IP. He was tied for 1st in the league in wins, 3rd in ERA, and 10th in strikeouts. He walked jsut 1.9 batters per 9 innings and led the NL with a 0.6 HR/9 ratio. In addition, he had 5 complete games, including 3 shutouts (in 3 consecutive starts), tops in the NL. The funny thing is that Webb had a better season in '07, but "only" finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting. He went 18-10 with a 3.01 ERA and 194 K's in 34 starts and 236.1 IP, most in the NL. His walk rate went up to 2.7 per 9, but he allowed just 0.5 homers per 9, and he improved his H/9 to 8.0 (it was 8.3 in '06). Although Webb had an arguably better season than his Cy Young season of '06, he finished a distant second to unanimous winner Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.54 ERA, 240 K's). By '07, Webb had proved himself as a great starter, one of the best in the majors. He only continued that in '08, going 22-7 with a 3.30 ERA and 183 K's in 34 starts and 226.2 IP. The 22 wins led the majors. Webb had slightly fewer strikeouts, but he was still great, but in '09, everything changed.
Webb started Opening Day 2009 for Arizona. He went 4 innings, giving up 6 runs, before being placed on the DL the next day with a right shoulder injury. He missed the rest of '09 and all of '10. (He has begun pitching in instructional league.) Will he ever be the same?
Webb's exact shoulder injury was right shoulder bursitis. Bursitis is when a bursa (a cavity within a joint) becomes swollen. It's not a terribly serious injury (think 15-day DL), but it often comes about after a rotator cuff injury, which you would think must have been Webb's injury, considering he has missed so much time. Instead he sprained his major teres muscle, but basically the same effect occured. Although it was thought as a strain for nearly all of '09, it eventually required surgery.
Webb is not the same pitcher. The former NL Cy Young had his arm-slot was lowered, potentially changing his delivery. Since he's come back, he's been throwing high-80's. Webb is a free agent. Is he worth the risk for a contender? Will some pitching-deprived team sign him to an incentives-based deal? Well, we'll have to see what happens.
In '06, Webb came out of nowhere (at least in the eyes of non-Diamondbacks fans) to win the NL Cy Young Award. He went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 178 K's in 33 starts and 235 IP. He was tied for 1st in the league in wins, 3rd in ERA, and 10th in strikeouts. He walked jsut 1.9 batters per 9 innings and led the NL with a 0.6 HR/9 ratio. In addition, he had 5 complete games, including 3 shutouts (in 3 consecutive starts), tops in the NL. The funny thing is that Webb had a better season in '07, but "only" finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting. He went 18-10 with a 3.01 ERA and 194 K's in 34 starts and 236.1 IP, most in the NL. His walk rate went up to 2.7 per 9, but he allowed just 0.5 homers per 9, and he improved his H/9 to 8.0 (it was 8.3 in '06). Although Webb had an arguably better season than his Cy Young season of '06, he finished a distant second to unanimous winner Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.54 ERA, 240 K's). By '07, Webb had proved himself as a great starter, one of the best in the majors. He only continued that in '08, going 22-7 with a 3.30 ERA and 183 K's in 34 starts and 226.2 IP. The 22 wins led the majors. Webb had slightly fewer strikeouts, but he was still great, but in '09, everything changed.
Webb started Opening Day 2009 for Arizona. He went 4 innings, giving up 6 runs, before being placed on the DL the next day with a right shoulder injury. He missed the rest of '09 and all of '10. (He has begun pitching in instructional league.) Will he ever be the same?
Webb's exact shoulder injury was right shoulder bursitis. Bursitis is when a bursa (a cavity within a joint) becomes swollen. It's not a terribly serious injury (think 15-day DL), but it often comes about after a rotator cuff injury, which you would think must have been Webb's injury, considering he has missed so much time. Instead he sprained his major teres muscle, but basically the same effect occured. Although it was thought as a strain for nearly all of '09, it eventually required surgery.
Webb is not the same pitcher. The former NL Cy Young had his arm-slot was lowered, potentially changing his delivery. Since he's come back, he's been throwing high-80's. Webb is a free agent. Is he worth the risk for a contender? Will some pitching-deprived team sign him to an incentives-based deal? Well, we'll have to see what happens.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
You have to feel sorry for Brooks Conrad
Brooks Conrad was never supposed to be there. He toiled in the minors for 7 seasons in the Astros organization, including 3 full seasons at Triple-A. He was signed to a minor league contract by the Oakland A's and just toiled in the minors again except for 6 games in the majors in which he hit .158. He was then signed as a free agent by the Atlanta Braves in '09 at age 29. Then, he finally got his big break. Due to injuries, Conrad was brought up to the majors on July 3rd. He hit .344 with 2 homers and 8 RBI's in 14 games. Do you think the Braves would keep someone hitting .344 in the majors? Well, in the case of Conrad, no. He was sent back down to Triple-A after a July 20th against San Francisco. At least he was brought back to the majors in September. But, he hit .000 (yeah, .000) the rest of the season to finish with a .204 BA. Just like the rest of his career- it wasn't meant to be. Conrad appeared to be starting a productive major league career, albeit late, but then he got sent down, and then he slumped.
And then, despite all that, Conrad made the Braves in 2010. He did pretty well, hitting .250 with 11 doubles, 8 homers, 33 RBI, 5 SB, and a .324 OBP in 104 games, but just 177 at-bats.The highlight of his season was a walk-off grand slam to complete an 7-run rally in the bottom of the 9th against the Cincinnati Reds. Even I, a Yankee fan who doesn't care at all about the Braves, could recognize his name after that. Not only was Conrad clutch during that moment in the limelight, but he was also a clutch player over the course of the whole regular season. He hit .378 with runners in scoring position and .275 with runners on base. He hit 5 of his homers with runners on base including 2 grand slams (one of which was the walk-off homer). Then, everything changed.
In the NLDS against the San Francisco Giants, Conrad only had 1 hit in 11 at-bats, but that wasn't even close to the worst part. In Game 3, Conrad made 2 errors: a dropped popup for an unearned run, and a booted grounder. But then, with the game tied at 2, Conrad let the ball go right through his legs for the game-winning run for the Giants. Conrad became the goat of the series. The Giants won Game 4 and that was the end of the Braves' season and Bobby Cox's managerial career. What a way to end it! Not. Conrad has scarred his career and will be remembered for a long time as the player that prematurely ended Cox's career. I'm sorry Brooks, but that's just the way it is. Even 30 homers next season wouldn't change that.
And then, despite all that, Conrad made the Braves in 2010. He did pretty well, hitting .250 with 11 doubles, 8 homers, 33 RBI, 5 SB, and a .324 OBP in 104 games, but just 177 at-bats.The highlight of his season was a walk-off grand slam to complete an 7-run rally in the bottom of the 9th against the Cincinnati Reds. Even I, a Yankee fan who doesn't care at all about the Braves, could recognize his name after that. Not only was Conrad clutch during that moment in the limelight, but he was also a clutch player over the course of the whole regular season. He hit .378 with runners in scoring position and .275 with runners on base. He hit 5 of his homers with runners on base including 2 grand slams (one of which was the walk-off homer). Then, everything changed.
In the NLDS against the San Francisco Giants, Conrad only had 1 hit in 11 at-bats, but that wasn't even close to the worst part. In Game 3, Conrad made 2 errors: a dropped popup for an unearned run, and a booted grounder. But then, with the game tied at 2, Conrad let the ball go right through his legs for the game-winning run for the Giants. Conrad became the goat of the series. The Giants won Game 4 and that was the end of the Braves' season and Bobby Cox's managerial career. What a way to end it! Not. Conrad has scarred his career and will be remembered for a long time as the player that prematurely ended Cox's career. I'm sorry Brooks, but that's just the way it is. Even 30 homers next season wouldn't change that.
Yankee prospects season review
In this post, I will review the 2010 seasons of the top Yankee prospects and figure out how close they are to the majors. I will group them by position.
Catchers:
Jesus Montero: Montero got off to a rough start in 2010, but rebounded to have a great year. He ended up hitting .289 for Triple-A Scranton with 34 doubles, 21 homers, and a .353 OBP in 123 games. The 21 homers were a career-high and the 34 doubles tied a career high. The BA and OBP were Montero's lowest since '07, but it's a good sign that he was able to rebound from the bad start. He also played relatively well defensively, throwing out 23% of runners while posting a .992 Fld%. (Keep in mind that Montero's CS% is higher than both Posada and Cervelli. Of course, he's up against Triple-A base stealers, not big league base stealers.) But, it seems unlikely that he will ever be a full-time catcher. There's a chance that Montero could start 2011 on the big league roster. At the latest, he will arrive in the majors in September 2011. He will turn 21 in November. ETA: Sometime in 2011
Austin Romine: Romine continues to put up decent seasons in the minors. He hit .268 in 2010 for Double-A Trenton with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. His 31 doubles was a career-high. He posted a 23% CS% at catcher with a .994 Fld%. Romine sounds like a good defender and does have potential, but right now he's had trouble handling great fastballs. He'll obviously have to improve that. Romine will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2012
Others: 17 year old Gary Sanchez hit .329 with 8 homers and 43 RBI in 47 games between Rookie ball and Short Season-A. He had some struggles defensively, posting just a .971 Fld% although he did throw out 26% of attempted base stealers. He DH'd 17 times on the year. ETA: September 2014... 19 year old J. R. Murphy hit .255 with 7 homers and 54 RBI in 87 games for Low-A Charleston. His defense is also a work-in-progress, as he posted a .973 Fld% and a 23% CS%. Those struggles caused him to play DH 34 times with Kyle Higashioka catching. ETA: September 2013... 20 year old Kyle Higashioka hit just .225 for Low-A Charleston, but shined defensively, posting a .987 Fld% and a 33% CS%. He could eventually be a decent big league backup. ETA: September 2012
First basemen:
Brandon Laird: Laird had a great season in 2010 for Double-A Trenton. He hit .291 with 22 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 107 games. He was so good that he was promoted to Triple-A Scranton where he hit .246 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .268 OBP in 31 games. A player who has split time between 3rd base and 1st base, Laird's sub-par defense at 3rd will move him to 1st. He posted just a .931 Fld% at 3rd base this year and has a .934 Fld% there for his career. Meanwhile, he has a .992 career Fld% at 1st including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 6 games there in '10. His only full season at 1st was '08 when he played 88 games at the position and posted a .993 Fld%. Pending a Teixeira injury, Laird will probably never get a chance to start at 1st base for the Yankees. So, his value would come as a bench player with a great bat who could play both 1st and 3rd. Laird's bat needs more work at Triple-A, and his glove, particularly at 3rd, needs more work as well. Certainly though, Laird's bat will get him to the majors in 2011. He turned 23 in September. ETA: August or September 2011
Marcos Vechionacci: Vechionacci finally started hitting in 2010 after years of struggles. He hit .283 for Double-A Trenton with 17 doubles, 11 homers, 55 RBI, 6 SB, and a .350 OBP in 114 games. The 11 homers was a career-high, and the .283 BA was a career high for a season in which he played in 80 or more games. His glove has never been great, but he has experience at every infield position. He has 70 career games at 1st, 3rd, and SS in addition to 7 games at 2nd. But, he has just a .958 career Fld%. If he can fix those defensive problems, he could compete for a utility role in 2012. He turned 24 in August. ETA: September 2011
Others: 22 year old Kyle Roller, the Yankees' 8th round pick in June, hit .267 with 5 homers and 31 RBI in 67 games for SS-A Staten Island. He posted a good .367 OBP. But, he posted just a .987 Fld% at first base. ETA: September 2013 or 2014... 18 year old Ramon Flores hit .329 in Rookie ball, and managed to get promoted all the way up to Low-A and High-A, hitting .250 at both levels. He played all 4 corner positions, struggling to the tune of a .948 Fld% at 1st, although he did post a .983 Fld% in RF and 1.000 Fld% in 10 games in LF and 1 at 3rd. Maybe he could be a utility player down the line. ETA: September 2013 or 2014...23 year old Robert Lyerly had a great offensive season in '10, hitting .312 with 36 doubles, 7 homers, 71 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 131 games for Low-A Charleston. But, notice I said "offensive season", not just "season". Lyerly posted a completely disastrous .873 Fld% at 3rd base, his primary position, and just a .978 Fld% at 1st base as well. Well, he's certainly a much better 1st baseman than 3rd baseman. He improve his fielding and keep, hitting at every level if he wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2013 or 2014
Second basemen:
David Adams: David Adams was off to a great start in '10, hitting .309 with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, and a .393 OBP through 39 games. He hadn't even committed an error at 2nd base, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld%! But, then he fractured his ankle and was done for the year. The question is how Adams will come back. It is possible to develop arthritis after an injury like that, but I'm sure the doctors did everything they can to prevent that from happening. If Adams is fine next season, his bat could propel him to the majors by September. Should he be promoted, he also has experience at 3rd base. He is 23 years old. ETA: September 2011 if healthy, September 2012 or 2013 if recovery takes longer than expected
Reegie Corona: Corona had a bad year at the plate in '10, hitting just .238 with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 31 RBI, 14 SB, and a .306 OBP in 105 games at Triple-A Scranton, but he shined defensively. He posted a .998 Fld% at 2nd base, making just 1 error all season. That's even better than Robinson Cano, who will likely win a Gold Glove this year after posting a .996 Fld%, making just 3 errors all year. Corona also played both SS and 3rd base, but he struggling mightily at those positions, posting a .909 Fld% in 8 games at SS and a .895 Fld% in 9 games at 3rd base. Corona profiles well as a utility infielder. He has just a slight chance of winning a spot on the big league roster during spring training in 2011, but should join the big league club at least in September. ETA: Sometime in 2011
Others: 22 year old Corban Joseph had a nice year in 2010, hitting .283 with 33 doubles, 6 homers, 64 RBI, 7 triples, and a .362 OBP in 129 games between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. He did only hit .216 at Trenton after hitting .302 at Tampa. Defensively is another story. He posted just a .967 Fld% at 2B, not horrible, but pretty bad. He definitely needs work on his defense, but his bat should eventually get him to the majors. He will be 22 this month. ETA: September 2013...26 year old Kevin Russo made his MLB debut for the Yankees, hitting .184 with 4 RBI in 31 games. He did post an 1.000 Fld% at both 2nd base and 3rd base, but posted just a .933 Fld% while playing LF (he only made 1 error). His season in the minors was sort of like that also. After hitting .326 in '09, he hit just .259. He posted a great .992 Fld% at 2nd base, but also played every other position besides 1st base, pitcher, and catcher. He wasn't good at any of the other infield positions (.963 Fld% at SS and a .906 Fld% at 3B), or LF (.962 Fld%), but he did post an 1.000 Fld% in 6 combined games in CF and RF. He'll never be a good player, but he will be on the Yankees at some point in '11 as a super-utility player. ETA: He already has arrived, but he'll arrive again sometime in '11
Third base:
Laird (see above)
Bradley Suttle: Suttle rebounded in '10 after missing all of '09 with shoulder surgery. He hit .272 in 133 games for High-A Tampa, with 33 doubles, 10 homers, 80 RBI, 12 SB, and a .340 OBP. But, he posted a sub-par .951 Fld%. Already 24, Suttle really has to make up for his lost time in a hurry. He must improve defensively to continue his great hitting next season for Trenton if he even wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2012
Lyerly (see above)
Rob Segedin: Rob Segedin had a rough first 22 pro games. The Yankees' 3rd round pick in June hit just .244 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, and 10 RBI, and a .344 OBP in 22 games, all but 2 at SS-A Staten Island (the others were at Rookie ball). His defense was even worse, as he posted a .929 Fld% at 3rd base. He definitely needs a lot of work, both offensively and defensively. He will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2014 or 2015
Shortstop:
Eduardo Nunez: Nunez hit .280 with a homer and 5 SB in 30 games for the Yankees after a great 2010 in the minors. He posted an 1.000 Fld% at SS and a .944 Fld% at 3rd (1 error). But, he didn't make the postseason roster (Greg Golson made the team instead). Nunez hit .289 at Triple-A Scranton with 25 doubles, 4 homers, 50 RBI, 23 SB, and a .340 OBP in 118 games. He posted a .976 Fld% at SS in the minors, but just .917 Fld% at 3rd in 11 games, and just a .889 Fld% at 2B in 5 games. If Nunez wants to be a utility infielder for the Yankees in 2011, he must improve his defense. He is 23 years old. ETA: He has already arrived, and will likely make the Yankees out of spring training in 2011
Cito Culver: Culver, the Yankees' 2010 first round pick, struggled in his first taste of pro ball. He did OK at Rookie ball, hitting .269 with 7 doubles, 2 homers, 18 RBI, 6 SB, and a .320 OBP in 41 games. He posted a bad .918 Fld% at SS, but that's the case with most young shortstops. Culver was then promoted to SS-A Staten Island for some reason, and of course he struggled even more against older competition. He hit just .186 in 15 games game and posted just an .897 Fld%. Culver obviously had a disappointing debut, but he's just 18 and has plenty of time to improve. He is set up to be Derek Jeter's replacement at SS, and Jeter isn't going to retire for at least another couple of years. Culver has to improve both offensively and defensively, or Eduardo Nunez might end up replacing Jeter. ETA: Hopefully September 2014, before replacing Jeter in 2015
Others: 20 year old Jose Pirela had a good season for High-A Tampa, hitting just .252, but with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 61 RBI, 13 triples, 30 SB, and a .329 OBP in 130 games. He isn't as good defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at SS (in addition to a .957 Fld% at 2B). If he can improve defensively, maybe he will be a dark house for the starting SS job after Jeter. (If Jeter retires before 2014, Pirela could compete with Nunez to be the starting SS, at least until Culver arrives in the majors.) He will be 21 in November. ETA: 2012 to 2013... 17 year old Angelo Gumbs, the Yankees 2nd round pick in the '10 draft, had a terrible first 7 games, hitting .192 with no homers or RBI's (although he stole 3 bases), and posting just a .880 Fld% (3 errors). Gumbs, who may eventually be moved to the outfield because of Culver, needs a lot of work. ETA: September 2015...
Outfielders:
Slade Heathcott: 2009 1st round pick Slade Heathcott has had an "interesting" start to his career. Originally considered a 5-tool prospect, Heathcott has only shown some of those tools. Heathcott only hit .258 in '10 for Low-A Charleston, so he doesn't appear to be a good hitter for average. Heathcott struck out 101 times, but he did post a .359 OBP. He only 2 homers in '10, so his power hasn't developed yet. But, that's pretty common for young hitters to have their power develop later, and he did have 16 doubles in 76 games. He did show some speed, stealing 15 bases, hitting 3 triples, and scoring 48 runs in those 76 games. But, he was caught stealing 10 times for just a 60% SB success rate. Heathcott posted just a .953 Fld% in '10 (7 errors), so he doesn't seem to be a great defensive player, at least in CF. But, he did have 8 outfield assists, showing off his great arm. (Could he move to RF in the future?) Heathcott struck out 101 times and posted a .359 OBP. Heathcott might develop into a better all-around player, but so far he's been a bust. He has to improve his BA, improve his SB success rate, and improve his defense while waiting for his power to develop. Hopefully that will happen sooner rather than later. He turned 20 on September 28th. ETA: September 2013
Melky Mesa: If you thought the Yankees would never have a Melky again, you were wrong. Melky Mesa hit just .260 for High-A Tampa, but with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 31 SB, 81 runs, and a .338 OBP in 121 games. He posted a good .985 Fld% in CF (3 errors) with 6 outfield assists in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF. He really seems like a blue-chip prospect, but after spending 3 seasons in Rookie and SS-A ball, he's already 23 years old and will turn 24 on January 31st. Still, if Mesa can put up those kind of numbers in the higher levels of the minors, Mesa will have some future with the Yankees. He better move fast, starting with Double-A in 2011. As a legitimate 4-tool prospect (all tools besides BA), Mesa really has a chance. Hopefully he will make the majors in September 2012 after a solid campaign at Triple-A. ETA: September 2012
Others: 24 year old Colin Curtis hit .289 with 24 doubles, 5 homers, 27 RBI, and a .358 OBP in just 66 games at Triple-A Scranton in '10. The reason he played so few games was that he was called up to the Yankees on June 21st because of injuries to Curtis Granderson and Marcus Thames. Before being sent down on July 30th, Curtis hit .256 with a homer and 8 RBI (he didn't any hits in while posting an 1.000 Fld% in both LF and RF (but, his range factor was way below the league average). He also posted an 1.000 Fld% in the minors. Curtis might never be a starter in the outfield for the Yanks, but he could be a valuable bench player. He will be 25 in February. ETA: He already has arrived, and he will likely make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training... 23 year old Deangelo Mack had a pretty good year in '10, hitting .252 with 20 doubles, 12 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 5 SB (7 CS), and a .333 OBP in 116 games for Low-A Charleston. He's a little bit old, but he could potentially provide power off the bench. He better progress in a hurry. ETA: September 2012 (otherwise he probably won't make the majors)...25 year old Ray Kruml is another relatively old prospect, but he has legitimate speed. He hit .267 in 117 games between High-A and Low-A in '10, with 14 doubles, 1 homer, 21 RBI, and a .314 OBP in, all of which are sub-par, but he stole 42 bases while being caught 8 times. He's not a great outfielder, as he posted a .976 Fld% in CF, and a .973 Fld% in LF (in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF). He doesn't seem like even an average player, but maybe he could be a pinch-runner for the Yankees since Brett Gardner is now a starter. ETA: August 2013 (so he could possibly be on the playoff roster that year)...2010 4th rounder Mason Williams, a 19 year old CF, received the largest bonus the Yankees gave out this year, even more than 1st rounder Cito Culver. He hit .222 in 18 at-bats, so we really have no idea how good he'll be or how he'll progress. ETA: My guess is September 2014, but I have no idea
Pitchers:
Andrew Brackman: 2007 1st rounder Andrew Brackman finally got on track. After going 2-12 with a 5.91 ERA in 19 starts and 10 relief apperances for Low-A Charleston in '09, one year after Tommy John surgery, and 5-4 with a 5.10 ERA in 12 starts for High-A Tampa to begin '10, Brackman was promoted to Double-A Trenton and did great. He went just 5-7, but with a 3.01 ERA and 70 K's in 14 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 80.2 IP. This is the pitcher that the Yankees drafted in the 1st round! Hopefully he continues his success in '11, and we'll see him in September. He'll be 25 in December. ETA: September 2011
Ivan Nova: Nova certainly had his best season in '10. He went 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 135 K's in 23 starts and 145 IP before being promoted to the majors (he made his MLB debut earlier in 2010, tossing 3 scoreless innings in 2 relief appearances). After being promoted to stay on August 23rd, Nova went 1-2 with a 4.85 ERA in 7 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 39 IP. That's certainly not good, but it was decent enough to consider Nova for a rotation spot in 2011 (if the Yankees don't sign Cliff Lee). Nova has a promising future ahead for the Yankees, whether as a starter, or a reliever. ETA: Nova has already arrived, and should make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training
David Phelps: Phelps might be the only Yankee pitching prospect who had a better season than Nova in '10. Phelps went 10-2 with a 2.50 ERA in 141 K's in 25 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 158.2 IP. He was completely dominant. He had a 4 to 1 K/BB ratio (8.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9), and just a 7.9 H/9 ratio. His ERA did go up to 3.07 at Triple-A, but even that's good! Phelps is another Yankee starter with a very promising future, but he is a little bit older than Nova at 24. We'll see him in September 2011 along with Brackman. ETA: September 2011
Manny Banuelos: Banuelos had another great year despite missing time with an appendectomy. He went just 0-4 between Rookie ball, High-A, and Double-A, but with a 2.51 ERA and 85 K's in 15 starts and 64.2 IP. That's an 11.5 K/9! He posted his worst ERA among the 3 levels, 3.52, at Double-A, and understandably why. Just 19 years old, Banuelos is an incredible prospect. He should return to Double-A in '11, go to Triple-A in '12, and be promoted to the majors in September of '12. Even then, he'll be just be just 21 years old. ETA: September 2012
Others: 22 year old Dellin Betances went 8-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 108 K's in 17 starts and 85.1 IP between High-A and Double-A. He had a great 4.91 K/BB ratio (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9). His ERA jumped from 1.77 in High-A to 3.77 in Double-A, but that had to be expected. Hopefully he can do better at Double-A in '11, and do well enough at Triple-A in '12 to be promoted in September of that year. ETA: September 2012... 23 year old Graham Stoneburner had a great year in '10, going 9-8 with a 2.41 ERA and 137 K's in 26 starts and 142 IP between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa. He posted a great 4.03 BB/9 (8.7 K/9 and a 2.2 BB/9) while allowing just 6.8 hits per 9 innings. He's a bit old to be in High-A, but a good year in Double-A in '11 and in Triple-A in '12 will get him to the Yankees in September 2012 at age 24 (his birthday is in late September). If he continues to dominate the minors, the Yankees will find a place for him on the roster. ETA: September 2012...18 year old Gabriel Encinas, the Yankees' 6th round pick this year, is a 6"3 righty with great control. He is a sinkerballer with a curveball that has shown flashes and an OK changeup. He could be something in the future. He has yet to make his pro debut. ETA: September 2014 (?)... 21 year old reliever Thomas Kahnle, the Yankee 5th round pick in 2010, had a nice pro debut, posting a 0.56 ERA in 11 relief apperances for SS-A Staten Island. Not that those stats mean so much, but it's always positive to put up a 0.56 ERA at any level. Maybe we'll see him at some point. ETA: September 2013...27 year old starter Lance Pendelton went 12-5 with a 3.61 ERA and 133 K's in 27 starts, 2 relief apperances, and 154.2 IP. He is a bit old, but he has a chance to make an impact in the majors in the near future, probably as a reliever. He has 14 career relief appearances in the minors. He better make the majors soon if he ever wants a chance, with Brackman and Phelps coming. ETA: Sometime in 2011, if ever... 25 year old switch-pitcher Pat Venditte went 5-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 89 K's in 43 relief apperances, 6 saves, and 74.2 IP between High-A and Double-A. But, he struggled at Double-A, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in 2 relief appearances. Venditte will certainly have to turn that around in '11. Already 25 years old, Venditte better dominate Double-A in '11 and Triple-A in '12 and get promoted by September '12 at age 27. He'll make it to the majors eventually because he's such a novelty, but if he ever wants to be a quality reliever in the majors, he better get there quickly. ETA: September 2012
Many of the players I have mentioned will never make the majors, but there is a good chance that a couple of the players I mentioned will be All-Stars for the Yankees.
Catchers:
Jesus Montero: Montero got off to a rough start in 2010, but rebounded to have a great year. He ended up hitting .289 for Triple-A Scranton with 34 doubles, 21 homers, and a .353 OBP in 123 games. The 21 homers were a career-high and the 34 doubles tied a career high. The BA and OBP were Montero's lowest since '07, but it's a good sign that he was able to rebound from the bad start. He also played relatively well defensively, throwing out 23% of runners while posting a .992 Fld%. (Keep in mind that Montero's CS% is higher than both Posada and Cervelli. Of course, he's up against Triple-A base stealers, not big league base stealers.) But, it seems unlikely that he will ever be a full-time catcher. There's a chance that Montero could start 2011 on the big league roster. At the latest, he will arrive in the majors in September 2011. He will turn 21 in November. ETA: Sometime in 2011
Austin Romine: Romine continues to put up decent seasons in the minors. He hit .268 in 2010 for Double-A Trenton with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. His 31 doubles was a career-high. He posted a 23% CS% at catcher with a .994 Fld%. Romine sounds like a good defender and does have potential, but right now he's had trouble handling great fastballs. He'll obviously have to improve that. Romine will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2012
Others: 17 year old Gary Sanchez hit .329 with 8 homers and 43 RBI in 47 games between Rookie ball and Short Season-A. He had some struggles defensively, posting just a .971 Fld% although he did throw out 26% of attempted base stealers. He DH'd 17 times on the year. ETA: September 2014... 19 year old J. R. Murphy hit .255 with 7 homers and 54 RBI in 87 games for Low-A Charleston. His defense is also a work-in-progress, as he posted a .973 Fld% and a 23% CS%. Those struggles caused him to play DH 34 times with Kyle Higashioka catching. ETA: September 2013... 20 year old Kyle Higashioka hit just .225 for Low-A Charleston, but shined defensively, posting a .987 Fld% and a 33% CS%. He could eventually be a decent big league backup. ETA: September 2012
First basemen:
Brandon Laird: Laird had a great season in 2010 for Double-A Trenton. He hit .291 with 22 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 107 games. He was so good that he was promoted to Triple-A Scranton where he hit .246 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .268 OBP in 31 games. A player who has split time between 3rd base and 1st base, Laird's sub-par defense at 3rd will move him to 1st. He posted just a .931 Fld% at 3rd base this year and has a .934 Fld% there for his career. Meanwhile, he has a .992 career Fld% at 1st including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 6 games there in '10. His only full season at 1st was '08 when he played 88 games at the position and posted a .993 Fld%. Pending a Teixeira injury, Laird will probably never get a chance to start at 1st base for the Yankees. So, his value would come as a bench player with a great bat who could play both 1st and 3rd. Laird's bat needs more work at Triple-A, and his glove, particularly at 3rd, needs more work as well. Certainly though, Laird's bat will get him to the majors in 2011. He turned 23 in September. ETA: August or September 2011
Marcos Vechionacci: Vechionacci finally started hitting in 2010 after years of struggles. He hit .283 for Double-A Trenton with 17 doubles, 11 homers, 55 RBI, 6 SB, and a .350 OBP in 114 games. The 11 homers was a career-high, and the .283 BA was a career high for a season in which he played in 80 or more games. His glove has never been great, but he has experience at every infield position. He has 70 career games at 1st, 3rd, and SS in addition to 7 games at 2nd. But, he has just a .958 career Fld%. If he can fix those defensive problems, he could compete for a utility role in 2012. He turned 24 in August. ETA: September 2011
Others: 22 year old Kyle Roller, the Yankees' 8th round pick in June, hit .267 with 5 homers and 31 RBI in 67 games for SS-A Staten Island. He posted a good .367 OBP. But, he posted just a .987 Fld% at first base. ETA: September 2013 or 2014... 18 year old Ramon Flores hit .329 in Rookie ball, and managed to get promoted all the way up to Low-A and High-A, hitting .250 at both levels. He played all 4 corner positions, struggling to the tune of a .948 Fld% at 1st, although he did post a .983 Fld% in RF and 1.000 Fld% in 10 games in LF and 1 at 3rd. Maybe he could be a utility player down the line. ETA: September 2013 or 2014...23 year old Robert Lyerly had a great offensive season in '10, hitting .312 with 36 doubles, 7 homers, 71 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 131 games for Low-A Charleston. But, notice I said "offensive season", not just "season". Lyerly posted a completely disastrous .873 Fld% at 3rd base, his primary position, and just a .978 Fld% at 1st base as well. Well, he's certainly a much better 1st baseman than 3rd baseman. He improve his fielding and keep, hitting at every level if he wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2013 or 2014
Second basemen:
David Adams: David Adams was off to a great start in '10, hitting .309 with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, and a .393 OBP through 39 games. He hadn't even committed an error at 2nd base, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld%! But, then he fractured his ankle and was done for the year. The question is how Adams will come back. It is possible to develop arthritis after an injury like that, but I'm sure the doctors did everything they can to prevent that from happening. If Adams is fine next season, his bat could propel him to the majors by September. Should he be promoted, he also has experience at 3rd base. He is 23 years old. ETA: September 2011 if healthy, September 2012 or 2013 if recovery takes longer than expected
Reegie Corona: Corona had a bad year at the plate in '10, hitting just .238 with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 31 RBI, 14 SB, and a .306 OBP in 105 games at Triple-A Scranton, but he shined defensively. He posted a .998 Fld% at 2nd base, making just 1 error all season. That's even better than Robinson Cano, who will likely win a Gold Glove this year after posting a .996 Fld%, making just 3 errors all year. Corona also played both SS and 3rd base, but he struggling mightily at those positions, posting a .909 Fld% in 8 games at SS and a .895 Fld% in 9 games at 3rd base. Corona profiles well as a utility infielder. He has just a slight chance of winning a spot on the big league roster during spring training in 2011, but should join the big league club at least in September. ETA: Sometime in 2011
Others: 22 year old Corban Joseph had a nice year in 2010, hitting .283 with 33 doubles, 6 homers, 64 RBI, 7 triples, and a .362 OBP in 129 games between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. He did only hit .216 at Trenton after hitting .302 at Tampa. Defensively is another story. He posted just a .967 Fld% at 2B, not horrible, but pretty bad. He definitely needs work on his defense, but his bat should eventually get him to the majors. He will be 22 this month. ETA: September 2013...26 year old Kevin Russo made his MLB debut for the Yankees, hitting .184 with 4 RBI in 31 games. He did post an 1.000 Fld% at both 2nd base and 3rd base, but posted just a .933 Fld% while playing LF (he only made 1 error). His season in the minors was sort of like that also. After hitting .326 in '09, he hit just .259. He posted a great .992 Fld% at 2nd base, but also played every other position besides 1st base, pitcher, and catcher. He wasn't good at any of the other infield positions (.963 Fld% at SS and a .906 Fld% at 3B), or LF (.962 Fld%), but he did post an 1.000 Fld% in 6 combined games in CF and RF. He'll never be a good player, but he will be on the Yankees at some point in '11 as a super-utility player. ETA: He already has arrived, but he'll arrive again sometime in '11
Third base:
Laird (see above)
Bradley Suttle: Suttle rebounded in '10 after missing all of '09 with shoulder surgery. He hit .272 in 133 games for High-A Tampa, with 33 doubles, 10 homers, 80 RBI, 12 SB, and a .340 OBP. But, he posted a sub-par .951 Fld%. Already 24, Suttle really has to make up for his lost time in a hurry. He must improve defensively to continue his great hitting next season for Trenton if he even wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2012
Lyerly (see above)
Rob Segedin: Rob Segedin had a rough first 22 pro games. The Yankees' 3rd round pick in June hit just .244 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, and 10 RBI, and a .344 OBP in 22 games, all but 2 at SS-A Staten Island (the others were at Rookie ball). His defense was even worse, as he posted a .929 Fld% at 3rd base. He definitely needs a lot of work, both offensively and defensively. He will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2014 or 2015
Shortstop:
Eduardo Nunez: Nunez hit .280 with a homer and 5 SB in 30 games for the Yankees after a great 2010 in the minors. He posted an 1.000 Fld% at SS and a .944 Fld% at 3rd (1 error). But, he didn't make the postseason roster (Greg Golson made the team instead). Nunez hit .289 at Triple-A Scranton with 25 doubles, 4 homers, 50 RBI, 23 SB, and a .340 OBP in 118 games. He posted a .976 Fld% at SS in the minors, but just .917 Fld% at 3rd in 11 games, and just a .889 Fld% at 2B in 5 games. If Nunez wants to be a utility infielder for the Yankees in 2011, he must improve his defense. He is 23 years old. ETA: He has already arrived, and will likely make the Yankees out of spring training in 2011
Cito Culver: Culver, the Yankees' 2010 first round pick, struggled in his first taste of pro ball. He did OK at Rookie ball, hitting .269 with 7 doubles, 2 homers, 18 RBI, 6 SB, and a .320 OBP in 41 games. He posted a bad .918 Fld% at SS, but that's the case with most young shortstops. Culver was then promoted to SS-A Staten Island for some reason, and of course he struggled even more against older competition. He hit just .186 in 15 games game and posted just an .897 Fld%. Culver obviously had a disappointing debut, but he's just 18 and has plenty of time to improve. He is set up to be Derek Jeter's replacement at SS, and Jeter isn't going to retire for at least another couple of years. Culver has to improve both offensively and defensively, or Eduardo Nunez might end up replacing Jeter. ETA: Hopefully September 2014, before replacing Jeter in 2015
Others: 20 year old Jose Pirela had a good season for High-A Tampa, hitting just .252, but with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 61 RBI, 13 triples, 30 SB, and a .329 OBP in 130 games. He isn't as good defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at SS (in addition to a .957 Fld% at 2B). If he can improve defensively, maybe he will be a dark house for the starting SS job after Jeter. (If Jeter retires before 2014, Pirela could compete with Nunez to be the starting SS, at least until Culver arrives in the majors.) He will be 21 in November. ETA: 2012 to 2013... 17 year old Angelo Gumbs, the Yankees 2nd round pick in the '10 draft, had a terrible first 7 games, hitting .192 with no homers or RBI's (although he stole 3 bases), and posting just a .880 Fld% (3 errors). Gumbs, who may eventually be moved to the outfield because of Culver, needs a lot of work. ETA: September 2015...
Outfielders:
Slade Heathcott: 2009 1st round pick Slade Heathcott has had an "interesting" start to his career. Originally considered a 5-tool prospect, Heathcott has only shown some of those tools. Heathcott only hit .258 in '10 for Low-A Charleston, so he doesn't appear to be a good hitter for average. Heathcott struck out 101 times, but he did post a .359 OBP. He only 2 homers in '10, so his power hasn't developed yet. But, that's pretty common for young hitters to have their power develop later, and he did have 16 doubles in 76 games. He did show some speed, stealing 15 bases, hitting 3 triples, and scoring 48 runs in those 76 games. But, he was caught stealing 10 times for just a 60% SB success rate. Heathcott posted just a .953 Fld% in '10 (7 errors), so he doesn't seem to be a great defensive player, at least in CF. But, he did have 8 outfield assists, showing off his great arm. (Could he move to RF in the future?) Heathcott struck out 101 times and posted a .359 OBP. Heathcott might develop into a better all-around player, but so far he's been a bust. He has to improve his BA, improve his SB success rate, and improve his defense while waiting for his power to develop. Hopefully that will happen sooner rather than later. He turned 20 on September 28th. ETA: September 2013
Melky Mesa: If you thought the Yankees would never have a Melky again, you were wrong. Melky Mesa hit just .260 for High-A Tampa, but with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 31 SB, 81 runs, and a .338 OBP in 121 games. He posted a good .985 Fld% in CF (3 errors) with 6 outfield assists in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF. He really seems like a blue-chip prospect, but after spending 3 seasons in Rookie and SS-A ball, he's already 23 years old and will turn 24 on January 31st. Still, if Mesa can put up those kind of numbers in the higher levels of the minors, Mesa will have some future with the Yankees. He better move fast, starting with Double-A in 2011. As a legitimate 4-tool prospect (all tools besides BA), Mesa really has a chance. Hopefully he will make the majors in September 2012 after a solid campaign at Triple-A. ETA: September 2012
Others: 24 year old Colin Curtis hit .289 with 24 doubles, 5 homers, 27 RBI, and a .358 OBP in just 66 games at Triple-A Scranton in '10. The reason he played so few games was that he was called up to the Yankees on June 21st because of injuries to Curtis Granderson and Marcus Thames. Before being sent down on July 30th, Curtis hit .256 with a homer and 8 RBI (he didn't any hits in while posting an 1.000 Fld% in both LF and RF (but, his range factor was way below the league average). He also posted an 1.000 Fld% in the minors. Curtis might never be a starter in the outfield for the Yanks, but he could be a valuable bench player. He will be 25 in February. ETA: He already has arrived, and he will likely make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training... 23 year old Deangelo Mack had a pretty good year in '10, hitting .252 with 20 doubles, 12 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 5 SB (7 CS), and a .333 OBP in 116 games for Low-A Charleston. He's a little bit old, but he could potentially provide power off the bench. He better progress in a hurry. ETA: September 2012 (otherwise he probably won't make the majors)...25 year old Ray Kruml is another relatively old prospect, but he has legitimate speed. He hit .267 in 117 games between High-A and Low-A in '10, with 14 doubles, 1 homer, 21 RBI, and a .314 OBP in, all of which are sub-par, but he stole 42 bases while being caught 8 times. He's not a great outfielder, as he posted a .976 Fld% in CF, and a .973 Fld% in LF (in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF). He doesn't seem like even an average player, but maybe he could be a pinch-runner for the Yankees since Brett Gardner is now a starter. ETA: August 2013 (so he could possibly be on the playoff roster that year)...2010 4th rounder Mason Williams, a 19 year old CF, received the largest bonus the Yankees gave out this year, even more than 1st rounder Cito Culver. He hit .222 in 18 at-bats, so we really have no idea how good he'll be or how he'll progress. ETA: My guess is September 2014, but I have no idea
Pitchers:
Andrew Brackman: 2007 1st rounder Andrew Brackman finally got on track. After going 2-12 with a 5.91 ERA in 19 starts and 10 relief apperances for Low-A Charleston in '09, one year after Tommy John surgery, and 5-4 with a 5.10 ERA in 12 starts for High-A Tampa to begin '10, Brackman was promoted to Double-A Trenton and did great. He went just 5-7, but with a 3.01 ERA and 70 K's in 14 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 80.2 IP. This is the pitcher that the Yankees drafted in the 1st round! Hopefully he continues his success in '11, and we'll see him in September. He'll be 25 in December. ETA: September 2011
Ivan Nova: Nova certainly had his best season in '10. He went 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 135 K's in 23 starts and 145 IP before being promoted to the majors (he made his MLB debut earlier in 2010, tossing 3 scoreless innings in 2 relief appearances). After being promoted to stay on August 23rd, Nova went 1-2 with a 4.85 ERA in 7 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 39 IP. That's certainly not good, but it was decent enough to consider Nova for a rotation spot in 2011 (if the Yankees don't sign Cliff Lee). Nova has a promising future ahead for the Yankees, whether as a starter, or a reliever. ETA: Nova has already arrived, and should make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training
David Phelps: Phelps might be the only Yankee pitching prospect who had a better season than Nova in '10. Phelps went 10-2 with a 2.50 ERA in 141 K's in 25 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 158.2 IP. He was completely dominant. He had a 4 to 1 K/BB ratio (8.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9), and just a 7.9 H/9 ratio. His ERA did go up to 3.07 at Triple-A, but even that's good! Phelps is another Yankee starter with a very promising future, but he is a little bit older than Nova at 24. We'll see him in September 2011 along with Brackman. ETA: September 2011
Manny Banuelos: Banuelos had another great year despite missing time with an appendectomy. He went just 0-4 between Rookie ball, High-A, and Double-A, but with a 2.51 ERA and 85 K's in 15 starts and 64.2 IP. That's an 11.5 K/9! He posted his worst ERA among the 3 levels, 3.52, at Double-A, and understandably why. Just 19 years old, Banuelos is an incredible prospect. He should return to Double-A in '11, go to Triple-A in '12, and be promoted to the majors in September of '12. Even then, he'll be just be just 21 years old. ETA: September 2012
Others: 22 year old Dellin Betances went 8-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 108 K's in 17 starts and 85.1 IP between High-A and Double-A. He had a great 4.91 K/BB ratio (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9). His ERA jumped from 1.77 in High-A to 3.77 in Double-A, but that had to be expected. Hopefully he can do better at Double-A in '11, and do well enough at Triple-A in '12 to be promoted in September of that year. ETA: September 2012... 23 year old Graham Stoneburner had a great year in '10, going 9-8 with a 2.41 ERA and 137 K's in 26 starts and 142 IP between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa. He posted a great 4.03 BB/9 (8.7 K/9 and a 2.2 BB/9) while allowing just 6.8 hits per 9 innings. He's a bit old to be in High-A, but a good year in Double-A in '11 and in Triple-A in '12 will get him to the Yankees in September 2012 at age 24 (his birthday is in late September). If he continues to dominate the minors, the Yankees will find a place for him on the roster. ETA: September 2012...18 year old Gabriel Encinas, the Yankees' 6th round pick this year, is a 6"3 righty with great control. He is a sinkerballer with a curveball that has shown flashes and an OK changeup. He could be something in the future. He has yet to make his pro debut. ETA: September 2014 (?)... 21 year old reliever Thomas Kahnle, the Yankee 5th round pick in 2010, had a nice pro debut, posting a 0.56 ERA in 11 relief apperances for SS-A Staten Island. Not that those stats mean so much, but it's always positive to put up a 0.56 ERA at any level. Maybe we'll see him at some point. ETA: September 2013...27 year old starter Lance Pendelton went 12-5 with a 3.61 ERA and 133 K's in 27 starts, 2 relief apperances, and 154.2 IP. He is a bit old, but he has a chance to make an impact in the majors in the near future, probably as a reliever. He has 14 career relief appearances in the minors. He better make the majors soon if he ever wants a chance, with Brackman and Phelps coming. ETA: Sometime in 2011, if ever... 25 year old switch-pitcher Pat Venditte went 5-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 89 K's in 43 relief apperances, 6 saves, and 74.2 IP between High-A and Double-A. But, he struggled at Double-A, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in 2 relief appearances. Venditte will certainly have to turn that around in '11. Already 25 years old, Venditte better dominate Double-A in '11 and Triple-A in '12 and get promoted by September '12 at age 27. He'll make it to the majors eventually because he's such a novelty, but if he ever wants to be a quality reliever in the majors, he better get there quickly. ETA: September 2012
Many of the players I have mentioned will never make the majors, but there is a good chance that a couple of the players I mentioned will be All-Stars for the Yankees.
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