2011 MLB Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

Time for the annual MLB preview! Let's start in the NL West with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

If you're new to the drill, I'm going to look at each team position by position, going through the relevant stats, and then give an overview that team and state my prediction.

Catcher:

After a nice 2009 season, Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero was a disappointment offensively in '10, but mostly because he missed two months early in the season with a knee injury. He hit .266 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 43 RBI, and .332 OBP in 85 games after hitting .294 with 30 doubles, 16 homers, 59 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 128 games in '09. But, defensively, Montero is outstanding. He posted a .996 Fld% and a 31% CS% with just 6 passed balls. If Montero can rebound offensively, that would be great for Arizona, but if he can just stay healthy, hit around .270, and hit 12 or 13 homers, he would still be a valuable commodity for them. Backup Henry Blanco has just a .227 career BA, but he posted a .997 Fld% and a 50% CS% in '10 for the Mets. He's a fine backup. The D-backs have a great situation defensively at catcher, and they'll be happy if Montero can just stay healthy and hit a few homers, even if he doesn't rebound to his '09 levels.

First base:

Rookie 1st baseman Brandon Allen is poised to take over the first base job for the D-backs. Allen had cups of coffee in the majors in 2009 and 2010, hitting .221 with 5 homers and 20 RBI in 54 combined games. He posted a .993 Fld% at first base and a 1.000 Fld% in left field. At Triple-A in '10, he hit just .261, but with 18 doubles, 25 homers, 86 RBI, 14 stolen bases, and a .405 OBP in 107 games. He posted a .990 Fld% in 73 games at first base and a .981 Fld% in 33 games in left field. Allen won't be a great defensive first baseman, but the D-backs obviously hope he can hit well at the major league level. He did hit .267 in the majors in '10 compared to .202 in '09, so that's a good sign. They're not expecting him to completely replace Adam LaRoche, but they do want Allen to hit around .260 with power, maybe 18 or 19 home runs, and survive defensively. His backup at first base and possible starter if he fails will be ex-Yankee Juan Miranda. Miranda had a .253 BA with 4 homers, 14 RBI, and a .330 OBP in 46 games with the Yankees over the past three seasons. He didn't make any errors at first base. Miranda was rock-solid the past three seasons stuck behind Jason Giambi and Mark Teixeira at Triple-A, hitting .287 with 15 homers and 59 RBI per season and posting a .374 OBP. Again, keep in mind that he missed some time over those seasons because he was in the majors because of an injury. He has a .991 career Fld% at first base in the minors. Miranda will be 28 in late April, so even if he wins the starting job, he'll be just a stop-gap. The D-backs are certainly hoping that Allen can play well enough in spring training to win the starting job and play well enough during the season to keep it, but if not, they have a capable backup in Miranda.

Second base:

After a terrible '09 season with Atlanta in which he hit just .224, Kelly Johnson proved to be a great signing for the D-backs following the season. He had a breakout season in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doubles, 26 homers, 71 RBI, 5 triples, 93 runs, 13 stolen bases, and a .370 OBP in 154 games. His BA, homers, RBI, runs, stolen bases, and games played numbers in '10 were all career highs. He also was great defensively, posting an above-average .988 Fld%. Johnson is a very good player. His backups at second base with be middle-infield backups Ryan Roberts and Tony Abreu. Roberts has a .992 career Fld% at second base, and he can hit a little bit too. He hit just .197 in '10, but he hit .279 with 7 homers and 25 RBI in '09. Abreu is basically the 25th-man on the roster. He has a .251 career BA, but just a .279 OBP. He plays second, third, and short, but he's a disaster defensively at all three positions. The D-backs have a nice situation at second, having a really good player in Johnson as the starter and nice defensive depth behind him in Roberts.

Third base:

The D-backs currently have Melvin Mora penciled in as their starting third baseman. He will turn 39 in a couple of weeks. Not good. In their defense, he did have a decent season with the Rockies in '10, hitting .285 with 12 doubles, 7 homers, 45 RBI, 5 triples, and a .358 OBP in 113 games. He even posted a slightly-above average .957 Fld% at third base, but with Derek Jeter-esque range acording to Bill James' range factor per 9 innings and range factor per game stats. I want to say that he's a stop-gap for some good prospect, but their only decent third base prospect who's anywhere near the majors, Ryan Wheeler, played just 19 games at Double-A in '10 after playing in 113 at High-A. He did do well offensively, (.280, 28 doubles, 12 homers, 67 RBI, .337 OBP) and survive defensively (.949 Fld%), but he's a ways away. For now, Mora will be backed up by Geoff Blum, who hit .267 with the Astros in '10 with a significantly above-average .976 Fld% at third base. But, he'll turn 38 in April. The D-backs are very old at third base, and with no help coming in the near future, they'll just have to hope that Mora and Blum hold up.

Shortstop:

The D-backs recently signed their arbitration-eligible shortstop Stephen Drew to a two year, 13.75 million dollar deal. Good for them; he's a good all-around player. Drew isn't quite a five-tool player, but he does a little bit of everything. He's a decent hitter for average (.278 in '10), decent hitter for power (33 doubles, 15 homers, 61 RBI), he has nice speed (10 stolen bases and 12 triples), he's a good fielder (a .984 Fld%, 3rd in the NL and 3rd in the NL in putouts by a SS), and he has a nice arm (2nd in the NL in assists by a SS). He also had 83 runs, which doesn't really fit under any category (if you want to say it's part of speed, keep in mind that Mark Teixeira led the AL in runs in '10). His backups will be Roberts and Abreu. Good luck with that. Roberts has never played shortstop in the majors and has just a .959 career Fld% there in the minors. Stephen Drew is a very good shortstop for the D-backs, but there isn't much depth behind him.

Left Field:

Newly signed outfielder Xavier Nady is currently lined up as the D-backs' starting left fielder, although he could wind up playing first base if both Allen and Miranda don't play well in spring training. In a backup role for the Cubs, Nady hit .256 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 33 RBI, and just a .306 OBP in 119 games (347 AB's). Nady missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury one year after having a career year in '08, hitting .297 with 37 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 148 games between the Pirates and Yankees. From '05 to '08, Nady hit .284 with an average of 26 doubles, 19 homers, 69 RBI, and a .339 OBP per season. The D-backs are hoping that with another starting role, Nady will be able to get back to somewhere near those numbers. Defensively, Nady posted just a .970 Fld% in the outfield in '10, and has just a .966 career Fld% in left field. He better Nady's backups will be Gerardo Parra and Cole Gillespie. Parra was Arizona's primary left fielder in '10 as well as '09, but his performance in '10 didn't warrant him being the starter again. Parra was decent in '09, hitting .290 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 60 RBI, 8 triples, 5 stolen bases (7 CS), and a .324 OBP in 124 games. He posted a below-average .978 Fld% in LF. That was good enough. His .261 BA and .308 OBP in '10 were certainly not. He set career highs in just two stats: games played (133) and HBP's (2). He hit 19 doubles, 3 homers, 30 RBI, and 6 triples. He did slightly improve his Fld% in LF to .981. Good move by the D-backs to have the guts to replace a young player with a veteran even though Parra wasn't that bad. Gillespie hit .231 with 8 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .283 OBP in 45 games. He posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF and RF, but just a .969 Fld% in LF, although he did make just 1 error. The D-backs need Xavier Nady to get back to his previous numbers when he was a starting outfielder for the Padres, Mets, Pirates, and Yankees, but they do have decent depth behind him.

Centerfield:

In centerfield, the D-backs have a very good four-tool player in Chris Young. Young hit just .257 in '10, but with 33 doubles, 27 homers, 91 RBI, 94 runs, 28 stolen bases, and a .341 OBP in 156 games. Defensively, he showcased his arm with 10 outfield assists including 6 double plays, although his great arm did lead to just a .984 Fld%. Young's low batting averages got him in trouble in '10, when he hit just .212 with 15 homers and just 42 RBI. Even though Young is a four-tool player, he better put up a decent batting average in order to take advantage of those tools (if you don't hit, you won't hit for power and you won't be able to steal bases, and you'll be benched so you won't be able to take advantage of your defensive tools). Parra will be his backup. If Young can hit for just a decent average, centerfield will be one of the strongest positions for Arizona.

Right field:

Amid all the trade rumors, I'm sure at least a few people forgot that D-backs RF Justin Upton had an off year. He hit .273 with 27 doubles, 17 homers, 69 RBI, 18 SB, and a .356 OBP in 133 games. He hit .300 with 26 homers, 86 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .366 OBP in '09. As opposed to his offensive regression from '09 to '10, Upton was much better defensively, posting a .985 Fld% in '10 compared to .961 although he had just 1 assist compared to 4. Bill James' defensive metrics showed that Upton displayed great range. He had an off-year, but he's still a very good player. He'll be backed up by Parra and Gillespie. Upton is a great five-tool talent and the D-backs hope he can get back to using all five of those tools in '10.

Starting Rotation:
The D-backs' de facto ace is 26 year old right-hander and ex-Yankee Ian Kennedy. In his first full year as a starter, Kennedy did pretty well, going just 9-10, but with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's compared to just 70 walks in 32 starts and 194 IP. He allowed just 163 hits for a 7.6 H/9 ratio, good for 9th-best in the NL. Kennedy certainly had his problems, though. He allowed 26 home runs, 7th in the NL, he hit 10 batters, 3rd in the league, and he threw 16 wild pitches, good for most in the league. Still, Kennedy was pretty unhittable, although he was certainly helped by a .261 BA on balls in play (BAbip; league average is around .300). Kennedy also out-hit one of Arizona's top power hitters this past season (Mark Reynolds, who was traded to Baltimore), hitting .204 with 2 RBI and a .290 OBP. Baseball-Reference gave him a 0.4 WAR (wins above replacement) hitting, and add that onto his 2.7 WAR pitching WAR, and he had a nice 3.1 WAR season. Kennedy was a bit lucky in '10 and certainly has some things to work on, but the D-backs hope his return to 'average' luck in '10 will be canceled out by his maturity as a pitcher.

The D-backs have to hope that they'll get some better production out of Joe Saunders, acquired in the Dan Haren trade. Saunders, a right-hander who will turn 30 in June, went just 9-17 between the LA Angels (of Anaheim) and the D-backs with a 4.47 ERA, 114 K's, and 64 walks in 33 starts and amazingly, 203.1 IP, the first time he has ever gone over 200 innings in a season. He went 3-7 with a 4.25 ERA for the D-backs. Saunders' main problem in '10 was hits allowed: he allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings. But, that goes right along with his 9.7 career H/9. Saunders is a two-time 16 game winner (17 in '08 and 16 in '09), although his career ERA is just 4.29 and he has that bad H/9. In terms of hitting, there's not much to talk about. He hit just .087 with an RBI for the D-backs, although he did somehow steal a base. The D-backs just hope that Saunders can somehow maintain that 4.25 ERA he had in his 13 starts for them after they acquired him.

The Diamondbacks found lighting in a bottle with 23 year old right-hander Daniel Hudson in '10 (he will turn 24 in March). Hudson went 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA in 3 starts for the White Sox, but after the D-backs acquired him in the Edwin Jackson trade, he went 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA, 70 K's and just 16 walks in 11 starts and 79.2 IP. He allowed just 51 hits, good for a staggering 5.8 H/9. If Kennedy was unhittable, this guy was unstoppable. But, there are two factors that discourage me from thinking that Hudson is a ridiculous pitcher who will be dominating hitters for years to come: 1) he managed a 3.47 ERA in 93.1 Triple-A innings, which is OK, not great (although he did strike out 108 batters); and 2) he allowed just a .243 BAbip. How lucky is Hudson? Well besides that .243 BAbip, he also had 6 RBI despite just 4 hits (.148 BA). There's almost no way Hudson will manage another BAbip under .250, so the D-backs should just be hoping for that 3.47 ERA he posted at Triple-A. If Hudson puts that up, he might be the ace or number two starter on this team, but I'm placing him 3rd behind Kennedy and Saunders because I'm just really scared of what could happen if he allows a league average .300 BAbip.

There are three pitchers in contention for the last two spots in the Arizona rotation: Barry Enright, Zach Duke, and the recently acquired Armanda Galarraga. Enright, who will turn 25 in March went 6-7 with a 3.91 ERA, 49 K's, and 29 BB in 17 starts and 99 IP for the D-backs in '10. But, you have to be very worried about his 4.5 K/9 and terrible 1.8 HR/9 ratios. He also allowed just a .254 BAbip. But, he did have a 7.3 K/9 in the minors including an 8.9 K/9 at Double-A in '10. Enright is far from a sure thing, but you would think he could manage a decent ERA, at least under 4.50, if he can get that strikeout rate up to somewhere near his minor league levels. Hitting-wise, Enright was pretty incredible, hitting .252 with 6 RBI. While Enright was lucky, ex-Pirate Zack Duke was the exact opposite. Duke, 28 in April, went just 8-15 with a horrendous 5.72 ERA, 96 K's, and 51 walks in 29 starts, but just 159 IP. He allowed 212 hits, 12 per 9 innings, and 25 homers, 1.4 per 9, which isn't so bad unless you consider that Duke had the 3rd-best HR/9 ratio in the NL a few years ago. But, Duke is not as bad as the stats say he is. He had a crazy .343 BAbip. If that went down .300, Duke would have had at least a decent year. Duke posted a 4.95 FIP (fielding-independent pitching), which isn't great, or even good, but it's a heck of a lot better than his 5.72 ERA. Duke is not that bad of a pitcher. Duke hit just .063 with no RBI in '10, although he did have 8 sac bunts. There's almost no way Duke would be a complete disaster with an ERA over 5.20 as the D-backs' 5th starter. Galarraga, who recently turned 30, is what he is. He had his one moment in the limelight when Jim Joyce ruined his perfect game, but he went just 4-9 with a 4.49 ERA, just 74 strikeouts, and 51 walks in 24 starts, an RA (relief appearance), and 144.1 IP. He allowed 21 homers, a 1.3 HR/9, and 143 hits, an 8.9 H/9 ratio. He's an OK pitcher. He doesn't strike enough batters out to allow over 3 walks per 9 innings and nearly a hit per inning. At his best, Galarraga went 13-7 with a 3.78 ERA, 126 K's, and 61 walks in 28 starts, 2 RA's (relief appearances), and 178.2 IP. At his worst in '09, he went 6-10 with a 5.64 ERA, 95 K's, and 67 walks in 25 starts, 4 RA's, and 143.2 IP. Factoring the switch to the NL, Galarraga will probably post something like a 4.30 ERA. That's OK, but if Enright gets straightened out or Duke returns to his '09 form (4.06 ERA in 213 IP), they would certainly be better. We'll see what happens in spring training, but I think Enright and Duke should be the 4th and 5th starters, at least to begin the year, with Galarraga, who does have some relief experience, serving as a long reliever.

Bullpen:
Righty Juan Gutierrez had a really bad season, going 0-6 with a 5.08 ERA, 47 K's, 23 walks, 8 holds, and 15 saves in 58 RA's and 56.2 IP. Good thing he won't have to close again... at least you would think so. He posted a 6.87 ERA before previous closer Chad Qualls was traded compared to a 1.45 ERA after. What? That has to be an encouraging sign for the D-backs. He adjusted and had great success in his new role. Hopefully he can use that new experience of success in a late inning role to help him spring forward to a great 2011. Aaron Heilman went 5-8 with a 4.50 ERA, 55 K's, 26 walks, 12 holds, and 6 saves in 70 RA's and 72 IP. There has to be at least some worry that Heilman will collapse at age 32 after 5 straight seasons with over 70 appearances. Sam Demel, 25, went 2-1 with a 5.35 ERA, 33 K's, 12 walks, 4 holds, and 2 saves (0 blown saves) in 37 RA's and 37 IP. His main problem was that he allowed more than a hit per inning, although he did have a .325 BAbip. He posted an 8.0 K/9 and a great 2.9 BB/9, although he did allow 5 homers, 1.2 per 9. He could be a decent reliever in '11 for the D-backs if he just has 'average' luck. 27 year old right-hander Esmerling Vazquez had a just plain terrible season in '10. He appeared in 57 games, going 1-6 with a 5.20 ERA, 55 K's, 38 BB, and 6 holds in 53.2 IP. He simply walked too many batters, 6.4 per 9. That's a bit of a problem. He did post a 4.42 ERA in 53 RA's in '09, so the D-backs have to be optimistic that Vazquez wasn't as bad as his 2010 stats say he is. In exchange for Mark Reynolds, the D-backs acquired right-handers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio from the Orioles. Hernandez, who wil turn 26 in May, went 8-8 with a 4.31 ERA, 72 K's, 42 walks, 2 holds, and 2 saves in 33 RA, 8 starts, and 79.1 IP. Those are decent stats. But, as a reliever, he was pretty solid, going 7-3 with a 3.16 ERA, and 45 K's compared to just 13 walks. Hernandez did pitch in mostly low leverage situations (hence the 2 holds, and not more), but he still had a nice season as a reliever and he's moving from the AL East to the NL West, so he could be a very effective reliever for the Diamondbacks. Mickolio, who will turn 27 in May, is a different story. He posted a 7.36 ERA in 3 RA's in '10. He even posted a 6.37 ERA in 30 appearances at Triple-A in '10! That's not good. Mickolio did post a 3.50 ERA in 35 Triple-A appearances in '09 and a 1.80 ERA in 17 appearances there in '08. He also posted a 2.63 ERA with 2 holds in 11 RA's for the Orioles in '09. Mickolio can't be that bad of a reliever. His ML numbers in '10 were such a small sample size, and he had just had a terrible off-year at Triple-A. I would expect something like his 4.32 career ERA in the majors. You have to notice that every reliever besides Hernandez posted an ERA 4.50 or higher in '10. You have to be worried about that.

Closer:

J.J. Putz is lined up to close for the D-backs in '11. Putz had an outstanding season as the setup man for the White Sox, going 7-5 with a 2.83 ERA, 65 strikeouts, just 15 walks, 14 holds, and 3 saves in 60 RA's and 54 IP. His last full season as a closer was 2007, when he went 6-1 with a 1.38 ERA, 82 K's, just 13 walks, and 40 saves in 68 RA's and 71.2 IP. It's a bad sign that he hasn't been a full-time closer since '07, but I think he'll be OK because of his great '10, and because at least he does have experience in the role. Plus, he's moving to the NL West. He should be fine at closer for the D-backs, saving 35 or 40 games with an ERA 2.90 or less.

Overview:

The D-backs have a decent offense, but they'll need a big bounce-back year from Justin Upton and continued success from Chris Young. The D-backs are decent defensively, but they have potential problems at the corner infield spots. The rotation is slightly below-average at best, and the bullpen is terrible, even though Putz will probably be great. The D-backs need everything to go right to contend in '11.

2010 record: 65-97, 5th in the NL West

Prediction: 70- 92, 5th in the NL West

The D-backs will contend if... Upton and Young have breakout seasons, Brandon Allen is a contender for Rookie of the Year, Mora somehow holds down 3rd base, Ian Kennedy keeps improving, Daniel Hudson still posts an ERA under 3.00, the 4th and 5th starters are surprises in a good way, and the bullpen doesn't completely collapse like it did in 2010.

Another review of the Granderson-Austin Jackson trade

Before the 2009 season, the Yankees traded top prospect CF Austin Jackson and LH reliever Phil Coke to Detroit and RHP Ian Kennedy to Arizona in exchange for Curtis Granderson. The Tigers also traded RHP Edwin Jackson for RHP Max Scherzer and LH reliever Daniel Schlereth.

Why did the Yankees do the trade? They already had a top-flight centerfielder in Jackson who was ready for the majors!

Yesterday I was thinking and it finally came to me- Brett Gardner was the key to the trade for the Yankees. (Wait, what?) Yes, Brett Gardner, who wasn't even part of the trade, was the key to the trade for them. We'll get back to this point in a moment. First, let's analyze the trade for all the teams involved.

Jackson had a great rookie year, .293 with 34 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 10 triples, 181 hits, 103 runs, 27 SB, and a .345 OBP in 151 games. But, he led the AL with 170 strikeouts. How can a player with just 4 homers lead the AL in strikeouts? But, you could argue, he still hit .293. Well, let's compare Jackson to Curtis Granderson. Granderson led the AL in strikeouts in '06, his first full season, hitting .260. But, the next season in '07, he finished 7th in the league in strikeouts and hit .302. But, in '08 he hit .280, and in '09 and '10, he has hit under .250. Will the same thing happen to Jackson? For the time being at least, he's a good player.

Granderson missed time with a groin injury in '10, but Kevin Long fixed his swing and he had a nice year. He hit .247 with 17 doubles, 24 homers, 67 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 12 SB, and a .324 OBP in 136 games. He struck out 116 times. He hit .249 with 30 homers and 71 RBI in 160 games in '09, striking out 141 times. He is what he is. He's a good defensive CF with a lot of power and some speed. He of course strikes out a lot, but he's a good player.

Coke had a pretty good year as a workhorse lefty reliever, going 7-5 with a 3.76 ERA, 53 'K's, and 2 saves in 73 relief appearances, 1 start, and 64.2 IP. He walked only 26 for a 2-1 K/BB ratio, and allowed just 2 homers, but he allowed 67 hits, more than a hit per inning. It was better than his '09 season when he went 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 72 relief appearances for the Yankees, giving up 10 home runs. Strangely, he allowed just 44 hits in 60 IP. The Yankees clearly traded Coke because he's just not good. They were able to acquire Boone Logan, so they don't even miss him.

Kennedy had a good rookie season for the Diamondbacks, going 9-10 with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's in 32 starts and 194 IP. He also allowed just 163 hits, way less than a hit per inning, and 70 walks, good for a better than 2-1 K/BB ratio. But, he gave up 26 home runs and led the NL with 16 wild pitches. He's an OK pitcher. The Yankees didn't think he was of any use to them, so they traded him. They knew they had guys like Ivan Nova and Andrew Brackman coming up from the minors. It did turn out that they could have used him after Vazquez was a disaster.

Edwin Jackson had a very interesting season. He went 6-10 with a 5.16 ERA for Arizona and 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA after being traded to the Chicago White Sox. He threw a no-hitter, but he allowed 8 walks and threw 149 pitches. He struck out 181, but he walked 70, allowed more than a hit per inning, and he allowed 21 home runs. The trade was a disaster for Arizona.

Scherzer had a good season for Detroit, going 12-11 with a 3.50 ERA and 184 K's in 31 starts and 195.2 IP. He allowed just 174 hits, way less than a hit per inning. Scherzer did walk 70, but he still had a K/BB ratio better than 2.5. Detroit made a great deal in getting this guy.

Schlereth had a good season at Triple-A Toledo, going 1-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 60 K's in 39 relief appearances and 49.1 IP. But, he walked 34, a high average of 6.2 per 9. He did well in a big league tryout for Detroit, going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 18 relief appearances. He's a pretty good prospect, but he definitely has to work on his control.

It's clear who the winner is in this trade. The Tigers traded away 2 veterans in Granderson and Edwin Jackson for a starting CF in Austin Jackson that's a very different player than Granderson, but just as good, a starter pitcher in Scherzer that's probably better than Edwin Jackson, a lefty to be in the bullpen now in Coke, and a lefty that will be in the bullpen soon, in Schlereth. They are the clear winners in this trade. The Yankees got their guy in Granderson, and he did well, so it apparently wasn't a terrible trade for them. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks had just a terrible trade, as Edwin Jackson under-performed for them. Although Kennedy did well, they gave up a good big league pitcher in Scherzer and a lefty reliever who could eventually be a setup man, and maybe even a closer.

So, now to Brett Gardner, the key to the trade for the Yankees. Austin Jackson is a good player, but he has so little power. So does Gardner. Did the Yankees need both Jackson and Gardner? No. They would have had a very speedy outfield, but they would've had 2 starting players with 5 or less homers. When was the last time the Yankees had 2 guys like that? 1997, when Joe Girardi, Luis Sojo, and Tim Raines had 1, 2, and 4 homers respectively. Even then, Sojo and Raines both played under 80 games. In 1996, the Yankees had Girardi and Mariano Duncan who both hit 2 homers in addition to Gerald Williams who hit 5 homers in 99 games. Clearly, the Yankees can win with 2 players like that, but they probably preferred not to. Jackson was a more tradable player so they traded him instead of Gardner. In Granderson, the Yankees acquired a player with power who was a great hitter for Yankee stadium. The Yankees don't play small ball- they play "power ball". The Yankees probably would've liked to keep Coke, but they were willing to trade him (and Kennedy, who they had no use for) to do the Austin Jackson- Granderson swap. Jackson is a triples hitter, so he's great for Comerica, while Granderson has enough power to hit 35 homers in Yankee Stadium. Although there's no way to say that the Tigers weren't the winners in this trade, the Yankees accomplished exactly what they wanted so it was a good trade for them as well.

A decade of Yankee first round picks

We all remember the days when the Yankee farm system was a complete joke. The Yankees always drafted badly and when they did have a good prospect, they traded him for a veteran. But, the Yankee farm system has turned around the last few years, starting with Phil Hughes being drafted in 2004. Let's look at the Yankee 1st round picks since 2000 to see if the Yankees have improved, at least in terms of their first round picks.

In 2000, the Yankees drafted catcher David Parrish with the 28th pick in the draft. The Yankees also drafted him in the 10th round in 1997, but he didn't sign. Parrish had the potential to be a great defensive catcher. He threw out 30% of attempted base stealers his first 3 years in the minors. But, he made too many errors behind the plate, and never hit above .253 any of his years in the minors for the Yankees. He ended being a journeyman minor leaguer who never made the majors. Grade: F

With the 23rd pick in 2001, the Yankees selected Florida State outfielder John-Ford Griffin (no, his name is not a typo). At Short Season-A Staten Island in '01, he had a great season, hitting .311 with 17 doubles, 5 homers, 43 RBI, 10 SB, and a .413 OBP in 66 games. But, he was lost in the outfield, posting a .943 Fld%. In '02, he hit .267 with 16 doubles, 3 homers, 31 RBI, and a .344 OBP in 65 games for High-A Tampa before being promoted to Double-A Norwich. He hit .328 for Norwich with 3 doubles, 5 homers, 10 RBI, and a .400 OBP in 18 games. With his trade value at its absolute highest, the Yankees traded him to the A's as part of the blockbuster 3-team deal that sent Ted Lilly to Oakland, Carlos Pena to Detroit, Jeff Weaver to the Yankees, and Jeremy Bonderman to the Tigers. After hitting just .143 in 2 games for Double-A Midland, Oakland traded him to the Blue Jays for a player to be named (Jason Perry). He never hit .280 in any of his years in the Toronto, but he hit 13 homers in '03, 22 homers in '04, and 30 homers in '05. He made his major league debut in '05 for Toronto, hitting .308 with 1 homer and 6 RBI in 7 games. He also played in the majors for Toronto in '07, hitting .300 with 1 homer and 3 RBI in 6 games. Griffin played in the minors for the Dodgers and Cubs to finish off his career. He was pretty much a journeyman minor leaguer who had a couple of "cups of coffee" in the big leagues. But, he did have a role in the Jeff Weaver trade. Grade: D+

The Yankees had no 1st round pick in '02. In the 2nd round, they drafted RHP Brandon Weeden. He went 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 30 K's 7 starts, 4 relief appearances, and 34.2 IP in '02 for the Rookie ball Gulf Coast League Yankees. In '03, he went 2-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 31 K's in 9 starts and 3 relief appearances for the Rookie ball Gulf Coast League Yankees and the Short Season-A Staten Island Yankees. He was promptly traded to the Dodgers in the Kevin Brown deal. After posting ERA's of 5.39 and 5.70 at Low-A Columbus for LA, he was a Rule 5 draft pick (Triple-A portion) by the Royals and he posted a 6.03 ERA for them. Weeden went back to school, going to Oklahoma State University. He is now in position to be their starting quarterback this upcoming season, after starting QB Zac Robinson was drafted by the New England Patriots. Weeden did pretty well in the low levels of the minors for the Yankees and served a role in the Brown trade before completely falling apart. Grade: C-

There was a point when it seemed that 2003 first round pick Eric Duncan was going to be a star. Duncan, a 3rd baseman and the 27th overall pick in the '03 draft, hit .301 between the GCL and Staten Island Yanks in '03, with 17 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 6 triples, and a .364 OBP in 61 games. He then took his power up a notch in '04 between Low-A Battle Creek and High-A Tampa, hitting just .258, but with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 83 RBI, 75 runs, and a .357 OBP in 129 games. Duncan never hit that well again, and was stuck behind some guy named Alex Rodriguez at 3rd base. He was moved to 1st base in '06, but never hit well enough to be called up when Jason Giambi was injured. Duncan is hitting .285 right now as a Double-A utilityman for the Braves, but with just 4 homers. Duncan started off strong, but just completely fell apart. Grade: D

In 2004, the change started. The Yankees drafted some guy named Phil Hughes with the 23rd pick in the draft, who is 11-3 with a 3.99 ERA for the Yankees so far in '10. He struggled in '08 to the tune of a 6.62 ERA, but got back on track in '09 as a reliever and now is a pretty good starter. Grade: A

2005 first rounder (17th overall) C.J. Henry, a SS, never hit over .250 any year in the minors, although he was part of the Bobby Abreu trade. He is now a guard on the Kansas Jayhawks basketball team. At least he was part of that trade. Grade: D+

In 2006, the Yankees drafted RHP Ian Kennedy with the 21st overall pick in the draft. Kennedy never had an ERA over 2.22 any year in the minors, but he posted a 6.03 ERA for the Yankees, including an 8.17 ERA in '08. He was part of the Curtis Granderson. Kennedy was a decent pick, but he certainly didn't live up to expectations. Grade: B

In 2007, the Yankees drafted RHP Andrew Brackman with the 30th overall pick. He immediately had Tommy John surgery after he was drafted, and didn't make his minor league debut until 2009. He went 2-12 with a 5.91 ERA in '09, but he has rebounded from a terrible start in '10 (13.50 ERA after 2 starts) to post a 4.94 ERA between High-A and Double-A. He still has a shot to make an impact in the future for the Yankees. Grade: B

In 2008, the Yankees drafted high school RHP Gerrit Cole. Cole didn't sign, and went to UCLA. After going 11-4 with a 3.37 ERA in '09 for the Bruins, he could be the number 1 pick in the 2011 MLB draft. The Yanks picked a great talent, but this was a terrible pick because they couldn't sign him. Grade: F+ (the plus is for effort)

In 2009, the Yankees drafted 5-tool OF Slade Heathcott with the 29th overall pick in the draft. He is hitting .277 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 13 RBI, 8 SB, 19 runs, and a .351 OBP in 34 games. He hasn't done very well so far, but its hard to tell how good a player is through 37 pro games. At least he's stealing bases. Grade: ?

In 2010, the Yankees drafted high school SS Cito Culver with the 30th overall pick in the draft. Culver is the heir-apparent to Derek Jeter. After signing quickly, he is hitting .237 for the Rookie ball GCL Yankees with 3 doubles, 0 homers, 6 RBI, 1 triple, 1 SB, 8 runs, and a .310 OBP in 21 games. Definitely too early to tell for him. Grade: ?

The Yankees have improved in terms of drafting their first round picks. Their top picks from 2000-2003 were complete disaster, while 3 out of their 5 1st round picks from 2004-2008 were at least decent picks, and Cole would have been a great pick if they signed him. Their 1st rounders in 2009 and 2010 both have potential.