Introducing the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero

Jesus Montero will win the AL Rookie of the Year. Here's why.

Let's start with Montero himself. He has great career minor league stats. He hit .326 with 34 doubles, 17 homers, 87 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 132 games for Low-A Charleston in '08. He did even better between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton in '09, hitting .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games. Those 2 seasons proved that he was a great prospect. But his 2010 season proved he will be a great major leaguer. His stats on the year were really good for Triple-A Scranton. He hit .289 with 34 doubles, 21 homers, 75 RBI, and a .353 OBP in 123 games. Those look like Montero's usual great stats, but they're differerent. Montero started off very slowly, hitting just .247 with 2 homers in April. But, if you thought that was bad, Montero had possibly the worst month in his pro career in May, hitting just .217 with only 1 homer. Montero was going through a tough stretch- he was facing adversity. And, he got through it. He hit .283 with 3 homers in June, showing flashes of his usual self. Then, he broke out the rest of the year. He hit .342 with 5 homers (and a ridiculous .441 OBP) in July, .330 with 7 homers in August, and .370 with 3 homers in just 6 games in September. Montero is a great player who can overcome adversity at the plate.

Also, Montero has really improved defensively at catcher. He posted a .992 Fld% and threw out a decent 23% of attempted base stealers. It's hard to tell whether he'll ever be a full-time catcher (like Jorge Posada has been the past several years), but he could certainly catch a good 80 or 90 games for the Yankees in '10. Posada could catch most of the others.

Speaking of Posada, he has really declined the past couple of years, as expected by an old catcher. Posada had the best year of his career at age 35 in '07, hitting .337 with 42 doubles, 20 homers, 90 RBI, and an incredible .426 OBP in 144 games. Then in '08, he got hurt, and hit .268 with 3 homers and 22 RBI in just 51 games. But, Posada got right back on track in '09, hitting .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 111 games. Then, Posada had a bad year in '10, hitting just .248 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, just 57 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 120 games. Don't even get me started defensively, as he has declined from a .994 Fld% and a 24% CS% in '07 to a .986 Fld% and just a 15% CS% in '10. Posada doesn't have much left. His contract is up after the 2011 season, during which he will turn 40. Posada's goodbye to baseball could be as a part-time catcher and DH (still getting 400 at-bats) with Montero being the nearly full-time catcher. Francisco Cervelli would also fit in as a backup catcher when Posada needs a day off.

Cervelli. He's so clutch, but so bad. He hit an OK .271 in '10, but with no homers. No homers! He did hit 11 doubles and 3 triples, drive in 38 runs, and post a .359 OBP in 93 games. He hit .316 with runners in scoring position, getting 25 hits for 37 RBI. He even hit .381 with 24 RBI with 2 outs and runners on scoring position. Where he really did his damage was with the bases loaded. In those situations, he hit .545 with 20 of his RBI. Cervelli was so clutch that he had more hits with runners on (40) than with the bases empty (32). He hit .290 with runners on and .250 with no one on base. He gets clutch hits with runners on base, but in pretty much every other situation he's terrible. Now, let's talk about his defense. He calls a great game and all that, but he was terrible defensively in '10. He posted just a .980 Fld% (worse than Posada!) with just a 14% CS% (also worst than Posada)! He's just bad. He did only allow 2 passed balls, and that is very good. Still, he barely deserves to be in the majors defensively and is just slightly better offensively. He's in no position to take away at-bats from Montero. Maybe he'll catch 30 games in '10.

So, Posada declining, Cervelli performing below the league average, and Montero overcoming adversity and just being great amounts to Montero getting most of the at-bats at catcher. And, since Montero is just such a great hitter, my prediction is that he will win the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year.

What if Joba did have to come up to bat?

In Monday's 3-1 loss to the Tigers, Derek Jeter grounded into a game-ending double play with Joba Chamberlain on double deck. If you weren't watching the game, Alex Rodriguez left the game with a calf injury and was replaced by Ramiro Pena. Pena was then pinch-hit for by Marcus Thames and Francisco Cervelli moved from catcher to 3rd base to replace Thames and Jorge Posada moved from DH to catcher to replace Cervelli, so the Yankees lost their DH. The Yankees had a empty bench because Lance Berkman was injured and Nick Swisher had also left the game with right forearm tightness and Austin Kearns went to RF to replace him. So, let's say that Jeter beat out the relay throw to 1st (he actually almost did because Brett Gardner took 2B Carlos Guillen out at 2nd base). Then, it would be 1st and 3rd with 2 outs, a 3-2 score, and Mark Teixeira coming to the plate. The Tigers would then obviously intentionally walk Teix to bring up Joba with the bases loaded. What would the Yankees do?

The first thought would be to pinch-hit Berkman even though he was injured, but Girardi wouldn't do that because he wouldn't want to gamble with the rest of Berman's season to win one game. So, the only possible pinch-hitters were all pitchers. If the Yankees did decide to pinch-hit, it would have probably been either CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, or Mariano Rivera.

Joba is 0 for 5 at the plate in his MLB career with a walk and 2 sac bunts. He never had an AB in the minors.

CC is 25 for 97 (.258) in his career with 3 homers and 14 RBI. He's a decent hitter. But, he was the next day's starter.

AJ is 35 for 267 in his career (.131) with 3 homers and 9 RBI. He's not the worst hitter ever.

Mo is 0 for 3 with a walk and an RBI. You may remember his bases loaded walk against K-rod on the same night that he got his 500th save. Would the Yankees hope for the same magic? If he did walk (or get a base hit), he would stay in the game to pitch the 10th.

I would pinch-hit CC. If Valverde gave him a hittable pitch, CC could have gotten a walk-off hit. He probably would have gotten out, but you never know. If Girardi didn't want to take a chance that CC could get hurt, he would have either stuck with Joba or sent up Mo because there was no point of sending up Burnett. No matter who the Yankees sent up, the Yankees would have probably lost the game anyway, but who knows? Maybe Valverde's wildness could have continued and he walked whoever the Yankees sent up to bat, or, maybe he could have given CC, Joba, or Mo a mistake pitch and most unlikely walkoff ever could have occurred. It sure would have been a sight to see.

Are there any under-the-radar impact players waiting in the minors for the Yanks?

This year Kevin Russo came out of nowhere from the minors and has made an impact. Last year, Francisco Cervelli came out of nowhere to make a big impact with Posada hurt and has carried his great play into this year with Posada hurt again. Are there any other players like that waiting in the Yankee minor league system that will make an impact like that in 2011? I'm going to name 5 guys. Chances are, at least 4 of them will still be nobodies after the 2011 season. But, hopefully one of these players will make an impact in 2011. I'm not talking about players who will come out of nowhere to win a Rookie of the Year next year- I'm talking about bench players who could make an impact like Russo has had this year because Granderson was hurt and Winn played so badly that he was designated for assignment.

No, I'm not going to mention guys like Jesus Montero or Austin Romine who if you know anything about the players in the Yankee minor league system, you should already recognize. I mentioned many of those kind of players in my "The future of the Yankees" posts or other posts that talk about the future of the Yankees (you can go to the "all posts link on the right to read those posts). Instead I'm going to mention players who you may have seen in spring training or something, but who you probably don't recognize. I'm going to put the players in order of likelihood of making an impact in 2011, in my opinion.

1. Eduardo Nunez: 23 year old infielder Eduardo Nunez is hitting .311 at Triple-A Scranton with 10 doubles, 2 homers, 22 RBI, 12 SB (3 CS), and a .353 OBP in 49 games. He hit .322 with 26 doubles, 9 homers, 55 RBI, 19 SB (7 CS), and a .349 OBP at Double-A in '09, so he is really showing signs of improvement. He has posted a very good .980 Fld% at SS so far in '10. He also has some experience at 2B and 3B, but so far in '10 he has just a .800 Fld% at 3B and a .889 Fld% at 2B. He needs to work on those 2 positions. Maybe he could be a utility infielder in 2011. Keep in mind that Ramiro Pena is hitting just .190 right now.

2. Tim Norton: 27 year old RHP Tim Norton impressed so much at High-A Tampa in '10 that he bypassed Double-A Trenton and went straight to Triple-A Scranton. At High-A Tampa, Norton went 0-0 with a 1.23 ERA, 17 K's, just 4 walks, and 1 save in 8 relief appearances and 14.2 IP. Since being promoted to Triple-A Scranton, Norton has appeared in one game, and he threw a scoreless inning. In '09, Norton went 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA, 30 K's, and 9 walks in 23 relief appearances and 36 IP. Norton was really set back when he underwent rotator cuff surgery in '07 and missed most of that season and all of '08. If he hadn't gotten hurt, he maybe could have been in the Yankee bullpen right now. Norton has an impressive 9.7 career K/9 in the minors, so I have to think that he has a chance to be a member of the Yankee bullpen in 2011. His career BB/9 is just 2.1, so he also has great control. He also has allowed just 0.1 homers per 9 innings. Obviously we'll have to see how Norton does the rest of the season at Triple-A, but if he does well, he will have an opportunity to make an impact as a reliever in 2011.

(You would expect the Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees to have more players on this list, but really don't have any other players who jump out from the stats besides Ivan Nova and Zack McAllister who I've talked about in my "future of the Yankees" posts, and Boone Logan, Mark Melancon, Jonathan Albaladejo, and Royce Ring who all have major league experience.)

3. David Phelps: Even I've never heard of 23 year old RHP David Phelps before I did this post, but he's really good. He has gone 3-0 at Double-A Trenton with a 2.40 ERA, 45 K's, and just 16 walks in 9 starts and 56.1 IP. In '09, he went 13-4 with a 2.38 ERA, 122 K's, and just 31 walks in 27 starts and 151 IP. He really has great minor league numbers. If he continues his great '10 and starts out well in 2011 at Triple-A Scranton, the Yankees will definitely have to consider calling him up to the majors. But, he has never been used as a reliever in the minors. Still, when you have an ERA under 2.80 every year in the minors, you definitely deserve a look by the major league club. I think Phelps has a good chance to make an impact as a starter in 2011 if someone gets hurt, or as a reliever.

4. Josh Schmidt: 27 year old RHP Josh Schmidt went 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA at Double-A Trenton, with 26 K's, and 14 walks in 19 relief appearances and 27 IP before being promoted to Triple-A. Schmidt is a similar kind of player as Norton. He is another right-handed reliever with a very good career strikeout rate. But, although Schmidt has done pretty well in '10, his strikeout rate is not as high as Norton. He also walks may more batters. Schmidt has made 2 relief appearances since being promoted to Triple-A Scranton and has not done well, going 1-0 with a 7.20 ERA, 3 K's, and 2 walks in 2 relief appearances and 5 IP. Schmidt will defintiely have improve a lot on that 7.20 ERA to be in the Yankees bullpen in 2011.

5. Brandon Laird: 22 year old Brandon Laird, brother of Tigers catcher Gerald Laird, is hitting .316 at Double-A Trenton with 11 doubles, 10 homers, 50 RBI, and a .362 OBP in 49 games. Laird is putting up these numbers the year after hitting just .266 with 13 homers and 75 RBI in a disappointing '09 at High-A Tampa. In '08, he hit .273 with 23 homers and 86 RBI at Low-A Charleston. Laird's 50 RBI in '10 in 49 games is an average of over 1 RBI per game- no major leaguer with enough at-bats to qualify has an average of 1 RBI per game or better in his career. To put that into perspective, Albert Pujols has averaged under .8 RBI per game for his career and has not had a single season where he has averaged 1 or more RBI per game. (In fact, since 2000, Manny Ramirez is the only player to have averaged 1 RBI per game in a season in which he played 25 or more games by driving in 122 runs in 118 games. The other 8 players who have done it since 2000 all played in less than 25 games.) The problem with Laird is fielding. Laird started out as a 3rd baseman, then was switched to 1st, and now is back at 3rd. He has a decent .991 career Fld% at first base, but he has just a .936 career Fld% at 3rd base. He will need to make strides defensively at 3rd base to be promoted to the majors. The Yankees have only let Laird play 3B so far in '10 (2 appearances at DH), but he has posted just a .935 Fld%. Still, I can see Laird having a Juan Miranda-type impact in 2011. But, one problem with that: Juan Miranda will probably still be on the team unless top prospect Jesus Montero has already taken away his roster spot, so it will be tough for Laird to make the team.

In case you're wondering, switch-pitcher Pat Venditte did not make this list because he's only in Tampa right now and has only posted a 3.08 ERA so far so he won't be called up to Double-A in the near future.

Just like for Russo, injury or complete failure by role players might be needed for one of these guys to get called up. But, it's bound to happen to someone, and I think that these 5 players have a shot to be called up to the majors and make an impact.

Who will be the next Yankee catcher after Posada?

Jorge Posada is 38 years old and his contract expires after 2011. He will certainly retire after that contract is up. Is it too soon to talk about the next Yankee catcher?

Let's start with Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli is currently 24 years old. Cervelli never put up good minor league stats as his career high for homers in a season was just 3. But, he has done well so far in the majors. In '09 he hit .298 with 4 doubles, 1 homer, 11 RBI, and a .309 OBP. He posted a .995 Fld% at catcher with an incredible 43% CS%. He's gotten off to a great offensive start in '10, hitting .400 with 1 double, 0 homers, 12 RBI, and a .481 OBP. He has posted an 1.000 Fld% an catcher, but he has not thrown out an attempted base stealer yet in 6 tries. That CS% of 0% will definitely improve. Cervelli has filled in very well when Posada has been hurt, but could he be a full-time catcher?

Next, let's talk about the high-profile catching prospect Jesus Montero. He is currently 20 years old. He has done well in the minors the past few years. In '09 between High-A and Double-A, Montero hit .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games. He posted a .996 Fld% at catcher with a 20% CS%. But, Montero is struggling at Triple-A right now, hitting just .234 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 11 RBI, and a .294 OBP in 25 games. He has posted a .989 Fld% with a 25% CS%. The thing was Montero is that a lot of people consider him a CINO- a catcher in name only. Those people believe that Montero, who is 6 feet, 4 inches tall, has no future at catcher and will move to another position and/or be a DH. Theoretically, Montero could be the Yankee DH with Cervelli or Romine (who I will mention next) at catcher. So, will he even be a catcher when he reaches the majors? Montero reminds me of a former catcher who really jumped around and played every position, B.J. Surhoff, who is 6 feet, 1 inch tall. Surhoff started as a catcher, but during his career ended up playing every position other than pitcher. Surhoff had a pretty successful career, hitting .282 with 188 homers. But, Surhoff had a dimension to his game that Montero definitely does not have, as he had 141 stolen bases during his career including 21 in 1988 when he was still primarily a catcher. Surhoff's best overall year was in 1999 with Baltimore, when he hit .308 with 38 doubles, 28 homers, 107 RBI, 5 SB, and a .347 OBP. Those numbers are resonable for Montero (besides maybe the SB's). Again, Surhoff was a good player, but considering Montero's potential, the Yankee might want to be more careful with him than the Brewers were with Surhoff. After hitting .332 at Low-A in 1985 and .308 in Triple-A in '86, Surhoff was promoted to the majors and didn't play in the minors until 1994 when he played 8 games in the minors (maybe it was a rehab assignment). I hope the Yankees know what happened to Surhoff and will be a little more careful with Montero.

Austin Romine is another Yankee catching prospect, but he's not considered a CINO. He's currently 21 years old. Romine has done pretty well in the minors. In '09 at High-A, he hit .276 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 72 RBI, and a .322 OBP in 118 games. He posted just a .984 Fld% at catcher including 11 passed balls, but he also threw out 30% of attempted base stealers. Romine has gotten off to a hot start in '10, hitting .326 through 24 games at Double-A, with 9 doubles, 3 homers, 18 RBI, and a .396 OBP. He has posted a .994 Fld% at catcher and a 19% CS%. Romine might be the best candidate to be the next Yankee catcher, but he hasn't played above Double-A yet.

Cervelli might not be able to be more than a backup and Montero might not be a catcher when he reaches the majors. Assuming all 3 have a future with the Yankees, I would say that in 2012, Cervelli will probably start the year as the starter, Montero would be the DH, and Romine would start in the minors and come up to the majors to become the starter if necessary.

What will the Yankees do with 3/4 of the Core 4 hurt?

Jorge Posada is hurt with a calf injury. Mariano Rivera has missed time with a side injury. Andy Pettitte will miss at least one start. What will the Yankees do without them?

Francisco Cervelli has done well so far filling in for Posada. He is hitting .371 with 0 homers, 6 RBI, and a .436 OBP. He has posted an 1.000 Fld% at catcher so far, but he has not thrown out any attempted basestealers yet. He is a fine backup, but not nearly as good as Posada. Posada has hit .290 so far with 5 homers, 12 RBI, and a .364 OBP. He has posted just a .984 Fld% at catcher, but he does have a 21% CS%. Posada hopefully will be back for at least one game in the Boston series, which starts tonight. The Yanks obviously aren't as good with Cervelli behind the plate, but they'll be okay.

Joba Chamberlain has done pretty well as the Yankee setup man and filled in very well for Rivera as the Yankee closer in the recent Orioles series. He's is 0-1 with a 2.92 ERA, 13 K's, and 2 saves in 13 relief appearances and 12.1 IP so far in '09. Both of his saves were in the Baltimore series. During his 2 saves, he pitched 2 innings, giving up only 1 hit and 1 walk, and strking out 3. Rivera should be back for tonight's game if necessary, but we know that Joba can fill in at closer. Granted, Rivera is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA with 9 K's and 7 saves in 10 relief apearances and 10 IP, but Joba could do fine as the closer if he's needed.

The situation with Pettitte is more complicated. Javier Vazquez isn't hurt, but he's performed so badly (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/636845-whats-javier-vazquez-trade-value) that his start will be skipped or at least delayed in addition to Pettitte. That makes 2 total spot-starts. Sergio Mitre, who is 0-0 with a 2.79 ERA in 5 relief appearances in '09, will make one of the spot starts. But, what about the other? Could it be Alfredo Aceves? Aceves is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in 9 relief appearances and 11 IP. Aceves did make 1 start in '09 and 4 starts in '08. Aceves hasn't even had a 3 inning appearance this year, so maybe he couldn't start a game. Vazquez might have to start a game after the Boston serie because of the Pettitte injury. Or, the Yankees could call up one of the prospects mentioned in the link above, Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister. Considering Nova is now 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA and McAllister, after a bad start, is now 0-2 with a 5.52 ERA, Nova would be much more likely to get the call. The Yankees would probably send down backup OF Greg Golson if they bring up Nova. Pettitte is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 6 starts, so it would be tough shoes for anyone to fill. Hopefully whoever spot-starts can give the Yankees 5 decent innings.

No team in the majors is as good when key players are injured. That's the case with the Yankees, with Posada (hopefully back very soon), Pettitte, and Curtis Granderson all injured right now (in additon to Park, but he's not a key player). The players filling in hopefully can do a decent job. The Yankees are still a very good team, and they will definitely compete. It will just be a bit harder.

(This is the post about the situation with Granderson injured: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/635445-with-cg-hurt-hows-the-yankee-of-situation-going-to-look)

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