Time for the annual MLB preview! Let's start in the NL West with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
If you're new to the drill, I'm going to look at each team position by position, going through the relevant stats, and then give an overview that team and state my prediction.
Catcher:
After a nice 2009 season, Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero was a disappointment offensively in '10, but mostly because he missed two months early in the season with a knee injury. He hit .266 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 43 RBI, and .332 OBP in 85 games after hitting .294 with 30 doubles, 16 homers, 59 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 128 games in '09. But, defensively, Montero is outstanding. He posted a .996 Fld% and a 31% CS% with just 6 passed balls. If Montero can rebound offensively, that would be great for Arizona, but if he can just stay healthy, hit around .270, and hit 12 or 13 homers, he would still be a valuable commodity for them. Backup Henry Blanco has just a .227 career BA, but he posted a .997 Fld% and a 50% CS% in '10 for the Mets. He's a fine backup. The D-backs have a great situation defensively at catcher, and they'll be happy if Montero can just stay healthy and hit a few homers, even if he doesn't rebound to his '09 levels.
First base:
Rookie 1st baseman Brandon Allen is poised to take over the first base job for the D-backs. Allen had cups of coffee in the majors in 2009 and 2010, hitting .221 with 5 homers and 20 RBI in 54 combined games. He posted a .993 Fld% at first base and a 1.000 Fld% in left field. At Triple-A in '10, he hit just .261, but with 18 doubles, 25 homers, 86 RBI, 14 stolen bases, and a .405 OBP in 107 games. He posted a .990 Fld% in 73 games at first base and a .981 Fld% in 33 games in left field. Allen won't be a great defensive first baseman, but the D-backs obviously hope he can hit well at the major league level. He did hit .267 in the majors in '10 compared to .202 in '09, so that's a good sign. They're not expecting him to completely replace Adam LaRoche, but they do want Allen to hit around .260 with power, maybe 18 or 19 home runs, and survive defensively. His backup at first base and possible starter if he fails will be ex-Yankee Juan Miranda. Miranda had a .253 BA with 4 homers, 14 RBI, and a .330 OBP in 46 games with the Yankees over the past three seasons. He didn't make any errors at first base. Miranda was rock-solid the past three seasons stuck behind Jason Giambi and Mark Teixeira at Triple-A, hitting .287 with 15 homers and 59 RBI per season and posting a .374 OBP. Again, keep in mind that he missed some time over those seasons because he was in the majors because of an injury. He has a .991 career Fld% at first base in the minors. Miranda will be 28 in late April, so even if he wins the starting job, he'll be just a stop-gap. The D-backs are certainly hoping that Allen can play well enough in spring training to win the starting job and play well enough during the season to keep it, but if not, they have a capable backup in Miranda.
Second base:
After a terrible '09 season with Atlanta in which he hit just .224, Kelly Johnson proved to be a great signing for the D-backs following the season. He had a breakout season in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doubles, 26 homers, 71 RBI, 5 triples, 93 runs, 13 stolen bases, and a .370 OBP in 154 games. His BA, homers, RBI, runs, stolen bases, and games played numbers in '10 were all career highs. He also was great defensively, posting an above-average .988 Fld%. Johnson is a very good player. His backups at second base with be middle-infield backups Ryan Roberts and Tony Abreu. Roberts has a .992 career Fld% at second base, and he can hit a little bit too. He hit just .197 in '10, but he hit .279 with 7 homers and 25 RBI in '09. Abreu is basically the 25th-man on the roster. He has a .251 career BA, but just a .279 OBP. He plays second, third, and short, but he's a disaster defensively at all three positions. The D-backs have a nice situation at second, having a really good player in Johnson as the starter and nice defensive depth behind him in Roberts.
Third base:
The D-backs currently have Melvin Mora penciled in as their starting third baseman. He will turn 39 in a couple of weeks. Not good. In their defense, he did have a decent season with the Rockies in '10, hitting .285 with 12 doubles, 7 homers, 45 RBI, 5 triples, and a .358 OBP in 113 games. He even posted a slightly-above average .957 Fld% at third base, but with Derek Jeter-esque range acording to Bill James' range factor per 9 innings and range factor per game stats. I want to say that he's a stop-gap for some good prospect, but their only decent third base prospect who's anywhere near the majors, Ryan Wheeler, played just 19 games at Double-A in '10 after playing in 113 at High-A. He did do well offensively, (.280, 28 doubles, 12 homers, 67 RBI, .337 OBP) and survive defensively (.949 Fld%), but he's a ways away. For now, Mora will be backed up by Geoff Blum, who hit .267 with the Astros in '10 with a significantly above-average .976 Fld% at third base. But, he'll turn 38 in April. The D-backs are very old at third base, and with no help coming in the near future, they'll just have to hope that Mora and Blum hold up.
Shortstop:
The D-backs recently signed their arbitration-eligible shortstop Stephen Drew to a two year, 13.75 million dollar deal. Good for them; he's a good all-around player. Drew isn't quite a five-tool player, but he does a little bit of everything. He's a decent hitter for average (.278 in '10), decent hitter for power (33 doubles, 15 homers, 61 RBI), he has nice speed (10 stolen bases and 12 triples), he's a good fielder (a .984 Fld%, 3rd in the NL and 3rd in the NL in putouts by a SS), and he has a nice arm (2nd in the NL in assists by a SS). He also had 83 runs, which doesn't really fit under any category (if you want to say it's part of speed, keep in mind that Mark Teixeira led the AL in runs in '10). His backups will be Roberts and Abreu. Good luck with that. Roberts has never played shortstop in the majors and has just a .959 career Fld% there in the minors. Stephen Drew is a very good shortstop for the D-backs, but there isn't much depth behind him.
Left Field:
Newly signed outfielder Xavier Nady is currently lined up as the D-backs' starting left fielder, although he could wind up playing first base if both Allen and Miranda don't play well in spring training. In a backup role for the Cubs, Nady hit .256 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 33 RBI, and just a .306 OBP in 119 games (347 AB's). Nady missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury one year after having a career year in '08, hitting .297 with 37 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 148 games between the Pirates and Yankees. From '05 to '08, Nady hit .284 with an average of 26 doubles, 19 homers, 69 RBI, and a .339 OBP per season. The D-backs are hoping that with another starting role, Nady will be able to get back to somewhere near those numbers. Defensively, Nady posted just a .970 Fld% in the outfield in '10, and has just a .966 career Fld% in left field. He better Nady's backups will be Gerardo Parra and Cole Gillespie. Parra was Arizona's primary left fielder in '10 as well as '09, but his performance in '10 didn't warrant him being the starter again. Parra was decent in '09, hitting .290 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 60 RBI, 8 triples, 5 stolen bases (7 CS), and a .324 OBP in 124 games. He posted a below-average .978 Fld% in LF. That was good enough. His .261 BA and .308 OBP in '10 were certainly not. He set career highs in just two stats: games played (133) and HBP's (2). He hit 19 doubles, 3 homers, 30 RBI, and 6 triples. He did slightly improve his Fld% in LF to .981. Good move by the D-backs to have the guts to replace a young player with a veteran even though Parra wasn't that bad. Gillespie hit .231 with 8 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .283 OBP in 45 games. He posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF and RF, but just a .969 Fld% in LF, although he did make just 1 error. The D-backs need Xavier Nady to get back to his previous numbers when he was a starting outfielder for the Padres, Mets, Pirates, and Yankees, but they do have decent depth behind him.
Centerfield:
In centerfield, the D-backs have a very good four-tool player in Chris Young. Young hit just .257 in '10, but with 33 doubles, 27 homers, 91 RBI, 94 runs, 28 stolen bases, and a .341 OBP in 156 games. Defensively, he showcased his arm with 10 outfield assists including 6 double plays, although his great arm did lead to just a .984 Fld%. Young's low batting averages got him in trouble in '10, when he hit just .212 with 15 homers and just 42 RBI. Even though Young is a four-tool player, he better put up a decent batting average in order to take advantage of those tools (if you don't hit, you won't hit for power and you won't be able to steal bases, and you'll be benched so you won't be able to take advantage of your defensive tools). Parra will be his backup. If Young can hit for just a decent average, centerfield will be one of the strongest positions for Arizona.
Right field:
Amid all the trade rumors, I'm sure at least a few people forgot that D-backs RF Justin Upton had an off year. He hit .273 with 27 doubles, 17 homers, 69 RBI, 18 SB, and a .356 OBP in 133 games. He hit .300 with 26 homers, 86 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .366 OBP in '09. As opposed to his offensive regression from '09 to '10, Upton was much better defensively, posting a .985 Fld% in '10 compared to .961 although he had just 1 assist compared to 4. Bill James' defensive metrics showed that Upton displayed great range. He had an off-year, but he's still a very good player. He'll be backed up by Parra and Gillespie. Upton is a great five-tool talent and the D-backs hope he can get back to using all five of those tools in '10.
Starting Rotation:
The D-backs' de facto ace is 26 year old right-hander and ex-Yankee Ian Kennedy. In his first full year as a starter, Kennedy did pretty well, going just 9-10, but with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's compared to just 70 walks in 32 starts and 194 IP. He allowed just 163 hits for a 7.6 H/9 ratio, good for 9th-best in the NL. Kennedy certainly had his problems, though. He allowed 26 home runs, 7th in the NL, he hit 10 batters, 3rd in the league, and he threw 16 wild pitches, good for most in the league. Still, Kennedy was pretty unhittable, although he was certainly helped by a .261 BA on balls in play (BAbip; league average is around .300). Kennedy also out-hit one of Arizona's top power hitters this past season (Mark Reynolds, who was traded to Baltimore), hitting .204 with 2 RBI and a .290 OBP. Baseball-Reference gave him a 0.4 WAR (wins above replacement) hitting, and add that onto his 2.7 WAR pitching WAR, and he had a nice 3.1 WAR season. Kennedy was a bit lucky in '10 and certainly has some things to work on, but the D-backs hope his return to 'average' luck in '10 will be canceled out by his maturity as a pitcher.
The D-backs have to hope that they'll get some better production out of Joe Saunders, acquired in the Dan Haren trade. Saunders, a right-hander who will turn 30 in June, went just 9-17 between the LA Angels (of Anaheim) and the D-backs with a 4.47 ERA, 114 K's, and 64 walks in 33 starts and amazingly, 203.1 IP, the first time he has ever gone over 200 innings in a season. He went 3-7 with a 4.25 ERA for the D-backs. Saunders' main problem in '10 was hits allowed: he allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings. But, that goes right along with his 9.7 career H/9. Saunders is a two-time 16 game winner (17 in '08 and 16 in '09), although his career ERA is just 4.29 and he has that bad H/9. In terms of hitting, there's not much to talk about. He hit just .087 with an RBI for the D-backs, although he did somehow steal a base. The D-backs just hope that Saunders can somehow maintain that 4.25 ERA he had in his 13 starts for them after they acquired him.
The Diamondbacks found lighting in a bottle with 23 year old right-hander Daniel Hudson in '10 (he will turn 24 in March). Hudson went 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA in 3 starts for the White Sox, but after the D-backs acquired him in the Edwin Jackson trade, he went 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA, 70 K's and just 16 walks in 11 starts and 79.2 IP. He allowed just 51 hits, good for a staggering 5.8 H/9. If Kennedy was unhittable, this guy was unstoppable. But, there are two factors that discourage me from thinking that Hudson is a ridiculous pitcher who will be dominating hitters for years to come: 1) he managed a 3.47 ERA in 93.1 Triple-A innings, which is OK, not great (although he did strike out 108 batters); and 2) he allowed just a .243 BAbip. How lucky is Hudson? Well besides that .243 BAbip, he also had 6 RBI despite just 4 hits (.148 BA). There's almost no way Hudson will manage another BAbip under .250, so the D-backs should just be hoping for that 3.47 ERA he posted at Triple-A. If Hudson puts that up, he might be the ace or number two starter on this team, but I'm placing him 3rd behind Kennedy and Saunders because I'm just really scared of what could happen if he allows a league average .300 BAbip.
There are three pitchers in contention for the last two spots in the Arizona rotation: Barry Enright, Zach Duke, and the recently acquired Armanda Galarraga. Enright, who will turn 25 in March went 6-7 with a 3.91 ERA, 49 K's, and 29 BB in 17 starts and 99 IP for the D-backs in '10. But, you have to be very worried about his 4.5 K/9 and terrible 1.8 HR/9 ratios. He also allowed just a .254 BAbip. But, he did have a 7.3 K/9 in the minors including an 8.9 K/9 at Double-A in '10. Enright is far from a sure thing, but you would think he could manage a decent ERA, at least under 4.50, if he can get that strikeout rate up to somewhere near his minor league levels. Hitting-wise, Enright was pretty incredible, hitting .252 with 6 RBI. While Enright was lucky, ex-Pirate Zack Duke was the exact opposite. Duke, 28 in April, went just 8-15 with a horrendous 5.72 ERA, 96 K's, and 51 walks in 29 starts, but just 159 IP. He allowed 212 hits, 12 per 9 innings, and 25 homers, 1.4 per 9, which isn't so bad unless you consider that Duke had the 3rd-best HR/9 ratio in the NL a few years ago. But, Duke is not as bad as the stats say he is. He had a crazy .343 BAbip. If that went down .300, Duke would have had at least a decent year. Duke posted a 4.95 FIP (fielding-independent pitching), which isn't great, or even good, but it's a heck of a lot better than his 5.72 ERA. Duke is not that bad of a pitcher. Duke hit just .063 with no RBI in '10, although he did have 8 sac bunts. There's almost no way Duke would be a complete disaster with an ERA over 5.20 as the D-backs' 5th starter. Galarraga, who recently turned 30, is what he is. He had his one moment in the limelight when Jim Joyce ruined his perfect game, but he went just 4-9 with a 4.49 ERA, just 74 strikeouts, and 51 walks in 24 starts, an RA (relief appearance), and 144.1 IP. He allowed 21 homers, a 1.3 HR/9, and 143 hits, an 8.9 H/9 ratio. He's an OK pitcher. He doesn't strike enough batters out to allow over 3 walks per 9 innings and nearly a hit per inning. At his best, Galarraga went 13-7 with a 3.78 ERA, 126 K's, and 61 walks in 28 starts, 2 RA's (relief appearances), and 178.2 IP. At his worst in '09, he went 6-10 with a 5.64 ERA, 95 K's, and 67 walks in 25 starts, 4 RA's, and 143.2 IP. Factoring the switch to the NL, Galarraga will probably post something like a 4.30 ERA. That's OK, but if Enright gets straightened out or Duke returns to his '09 form (4.06 ERA in 213 IP), they would certainly be better. We'll see what happens in spring training, but I think Enright and Duke should be the 4th and 5th starters, at least to begin the year, with Galarraga, who does have some relief experience, serving as a long reliever.
Bullpen:
Righty Juan Gutierrez had a really bad season, going 0-6 with a 5.08 ERA, 47 K's, 23 walks, 8 holds, and 15 saves in 58 RA's and 56.2 IP. Good thing he won't have to close again... at least you would think so. He posted a 6.87 ERA before previous closer Chad Qualls was traded compared to a 1.45 ERA after. What? That has to be an encouraging sign for the D-backs. He adjusted and had great success in his new role. Hopefully he can use that new experience of success in a late inning role to help him spring forward to a great 2011. Aaron Heilman went 5-8 with a 4.50 ERA, 55 K's, 26 walks, 12 holds, and 6 saves in 70 RA's and 72 IP. There has to be at least some worry that Heilman will collapse at age 32 after 5 straight seasons with over 70 appearances. Sam Demel, 25, went 2-1 with a 5.35 ERA, 33 K's, 12 walks, 4 holds, and 2 saves (0 blown saves) in 37 RA's and 37 IP. His main problem was that he allowed more than a hit per inning, although he did have a .325 BAbip. He posted an 8.0 K/9 and a great 2.9 BB/9, although he did allow 5 homers, 1.2 per 9. He could be a decent reliever in '11 for the D-backs if he just has 'average' luck. 27 year old right-hander Esmerling Vazquez had a just plain terrible season in '10. He appeared in 57 games, going 1-6 with a 5.20 ERA, 55 K's, 38 BB, and 6 holds in 53.2 IP. He simply walked too many batters, 6.4 per 9. That's a bit of a problem. He did post a 4.42 ERA in 53 RA's in '09, so the D-backs have to be optimistic that Vazquez wasn't as bad as his 2010 stats say he is. In exchange for Mark Reynolds, the D-backs acquired right-handers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio from the Orioles. Hernandez, who wil turn 26 in May, went 8-8 with a 4.31 ERA, 72 K's, 42 walks, 2 holds, and 2 saves in 33 RA, 8 starts, and 79.1 IP. Those are decent stats. But, as a reliever, he was pretty solid, going 7-3 with a 3.16 ERA, and 45 K's compared to just 13 walks. Hernandez did pitch in mostly low leverage situations (hence the 2 holds, and not more), but he still had a nice season as a reliever and he's moving from the AL East to the NL West, so he could be a very effective reliever for the Diamondbacks. Mickolio, who will turn 27 in May, is a different story. He posted a 7.36 ERA in 3 RA's in '10. He even posted a 6.37 ERA in 30 appearances at Triple-A in '10! That's not good. Mickolio did post a 3.50 ERA in 35 Triple-A appearances in '09 and a 1.80 ERA in 17 appearances there in '08. He also posted a 2.63 ERA with 2 holds in 11 RA's for the Orioles in '09. Mickolio can't be that bad of a reliever. His ML numbers in '10 were such a small sample size, and he had just had a terrible off-year at Triple-A. I would expect something like his 4.32 career ERA in the majors. You have to notice that every reliever besides Hernandez posted an ERA 4.50 or higher in '10. You have to be worried about that.
Closer:
J.J. Putz is lined up to close for the D-backs in '11. Putz had an outstanding season as the setup man for the White Sox, going 7-5 with a 2.83 ERA, 65 strikeouts, just 15 walks, 14 holds, and 3 saves in 60 RA's and 54 IP. His last full season as a closer was 2007, when he went 6-1 with a 1.38 ERA, 82 K's, just 13 walks, and 40 saves in 68 RA's and 71.2 IP. It's a bad sign that he hasn't been a full-time closer since '07, but I think he'll be OK because of his great '10, and because at least he does have experience in the role. Plus, he's moving to the NL West. He should be fine at closer for the D-backs, saving 35 or 40 games with an ERA 2.90 or less.
Overview:
The D-backs have a decent offense, but they'll need a big bounce-back year from Justin Upton and continued success from Chris Young. The D-backs are decent defensively, but they have potential problems at the corner infield spots. The rotation is slightly below-average at best, and the bullpen is terrible, even though Putz will probably be great. The D-backs need everything to go right to contend in '11.
2010 record: 65-97, 5th in the NL West
Prediction: 70- 92, 5th in the NL West
The D-backs will contend if... Upton and Young have breakout seasons, Brandon Allen is a contender for Rookie of the Year, Mora somehow holds down 3rd base, Ian Kennedy keeps improving, Daniel Hudson still posts an ERA under 3.00, the 4th and 5th starters are surprises in a good way, and the bullpen doesn't completely collapse like it did in 2010.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Gil Meche's sudden retirement shows that pitch counts do matter
For those of you who think that pitch counts are a complete joke, you're wrong.
On June 16th, 2009, Gil Meche had one of the best starts of his career. Through 8 innings, he had allowed no runs, and just 4 hits while striking out 5 and walking just one. He had thrown 110 pitches. Instead of bringing in a reliever to pitch the 9th in a 5-0 game, Royals manager Trey Hillman kept Meche in their. Meche retired the side 1-2-3 to complete his complete-game shutout, but he used 22 pitches to do so, finishing with 132 pitches on the day.
Gil Meche has retired from baseball at the age of 32. He said that he retired because of a shoulder injury that would have required surgery. After that fateful day, June 16th, 2009, Meche went just 2-10 with a 6.86 ERA. He was never the same after throwing 132 pitches in that game.
All the young pitchers are protected. They have innings limits and pitch count limits. Maybe so should the veterans too, to some extent.
Not all pitchers are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, or Cliff Lee. A lot of pitchers are much more fragile. The Mariners and the Royals weren't careful at all with Meche.
Two years after making his major league debut with the Mariners in 1999, Meche didn't appear in any major league games in 2001 and 2002 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. In 2003, he pitched 186.1 innings (going 15-3 with a 4.59 ERA), but he posted just a 6.19 ERA after June 20th. He had surpassed his career high for innings in the majors (he had thrown 175.2 innings between the majors and minors in 1999) in that June 20th start which lowered his ERA to 2.89. Fine, Meche only surpassed his career high for innings by just 9.2 IP, but remember that he was just coming off of Tommy John surgery. I'm not saying that the Mariners should have limited him so much after already missing two years to the surgery, but they shouldn't have let him surpass his career high for innings pitched.
In 2004, the Mariners seemingly made an adjustment for Meche, allowing him to throw just 127.2 major league innings, but don't be fooled- he pitched 57 innings at Triple-A as well. (He actually posted a higher ERA, 5.05, at Triple-A than in the majors, 5.01.) Finally in 2005, he was limited to just 143.1 IP, but he still posted a 5.09 ERA. Despite his second-straight year with an ERA over 5.00, the Mariners stuck with him in the last year under their control in '06, allowing him to throw a career high 186.2 innings, and he did pretty well, going 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA.
After the '06 season, the Royals made the stupid decision of signing Meche to a 5 year, 55 million dollar contract. But, after the first year of the contract, the Royals had appeared to make at least a decent deal. Meche had his best season, throwing a career-high 216 innings and going just 9-13 for the hapless Royals, but posting a 3.67 ERA, tying his career high for strikeouts (156), and walking just 62 batters for a great ratio of just 2.6 per 9 innings (he had a 4.0 career BB/9 ratio before '07). In '08, Meche did something few players can do: win 14 games on the Royals. He was the first one to win 14 games on the Royals since Paul Byrd in 2002. (Obviously Zach Greinke did it in his Cy Young season in '09 as well.) Meche went 14-11 with a 3.98 ERA and a career-high 183 K's in 34 starts and 210.1 IP.
Through June 17th, 2009, Meche seemed to be on pace for his best season. Through 14 starts he had a 3.31 ERA and 67 strikeouts compared to 31 walks in 84.1 IP. But, after his 132-pitch complete game shutout on June 16th, Meche went just 2-5 with an 8.46 ERA. A good pitcher never just collapses like that at age 30. It was the 132 pitches.
In 2010, Meche went just 0-5 with a 5.69 ERA and just 41 strikeouts versus 38 walks in 9 starts, 11 relief appearances, and 61.2 IP. He missed from May 25th to September 1st with his shoulder injury. His career was over at age 32 (his 32nd birthday was September 8th).
What's the message here? Two things: 1) you have to be somewhat careful with any pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery, and 2) no pitcher should be kept in for over 130 pitches except when ABSOLUTELY necessary. I'm not saying that pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery shouldn't throw 200 innings, but you have to let him work back up to a regular big league workload. Meche's career was sidetracked because the Mariners let him throw 186.1 innings right after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Then, after the Royals acquired him, they let him throw 216 innings, a jump of 30 innings from '06 to '07 and 50 IP over his average the previous two years. He was still 28 when the Royals got him, and even though they signed him to a big contract to be their ace, the Royals had to limit him somewhat to make sure that he could hold up all 5 years and still be effective. They didn't limit him at all, and not only was he not durable the past two years, but he couldn't even last the entirety of his contract. If I was the Royals I would have limited him to 200 innings in '07 and then let him pitch much a few more that that in '08 and around the same the rest of his deal. Again, they didn't and it cost them.
Let's go back to the trio above: Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Cliff Lee. We know all of them as innings eaters who often finish games. Halladay has thrown 130 or pitches in a game three times, one time each of the past three seasons. CC has throw over 130 pitches in a game just once in his career, during his wild card chase with the Brewers in '08. Cliff Lee has NEVER thrown 130 or more pitches in a game. Even for veterans, you can't throw pitch counts completely out the window. In non-must-win games, no pitcher should throw 130 or more pitches in a game, even if they're throwing a no-hitter (I'm talking to you, D-backs, about Edwin Jackson who you let throw a crazy 149 pitches in his 8-walk no-hitter).
We know that there are many young pitchers right now who could become the next Gil Meche by being overworked, especially after Tommy John surgery, and being forced to retire early. Teams, don't let that happen.
On June 16th, 2009, Gil Meche had one of the best starts of his career. Through 8 innings, he had allowed no runs, and just 4 hits while striking out 5 and walking just one. He had thrown 110 pitches. Instead of bringing in a reliever to pitch the 9th in a 5-0 game, Royals manager Trey Hillman kept Meche in their. Meche retired the side 1-2-3 to complete his complete-game shutout, but he used 22 pitches to do so, finishing with 132 pitches on the day.
Gil Meche has retired from baseball at the age of 32. He said that he retired because of a shoulder injury that would have required surgery. After that fateful day, June 16th, 2009, Meche went just 2-10 with a 6.86 ERA. He was never the same after throwing 132 pitches in that game.
All the young pitchers are protected. They have innings limits and pitch count limits. Maybe so should the veterans too, to some extent.
Not all pitchers are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, or Cliff Lee. A lot of pitchers are much more fragile. The Mariners and the Royals weren't careful at all with Meche.
Two years after making his major league debut with the Mariners in 1999, Meche didn't appear in any major league games in 2001 and 2002 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. In 2003, he pitched 186.1 innings (going 15-3 with a 4.59 ERA), but he posted just a 6.19 ERA after June 20th. He had surpassed his career high for innings in the majors (he had thrown 175.2 innings between the majors and minors in 1999) in that June 20th start which lowered his ERA to 2.89. Fine, Meche only surpassed his career high for innings by just 9.2 IP, but remember that he was just coming off of Tommy John surgery. I'm not saying that the Mariners should have limited him so much after already missing two years to the surgery, but they shouldn't have let him surpass his career high for innings pitched.
In 2004, the Mariners seemingly made an adjustment for Meche, allowing him to throw just 127.2 major league innings, but don't be fooled- he pitched 57 innings at Triple-A as well. (He actually posted a higher ERA, 5.05, at Triple-A than in the majors, 5.01.) Finally in 2005, he was limited to just 143.1 IP, but he still posted a 5.09 ERA. Despite his second-straight year with an ERA over 5.00, the Mariners stuck with him in the last year under their control in '06, allowing him to throw a career high 186.2 innings, and he did pretty well, going 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA.
After the '06 season, the Royals made the stupid decision of signing Meche to a 5 year, 55 million dollar contract. But, after the first year of the contract, the Royals had appeared to make at least a decent deal. Meche had his best season, throwing a career-high 216 innings and going just 9-13 for the hapless Royals, but posting a 3.67 ERA, tying his career high for strikeouts (156), and walking just 62 batters for a great ratio of just 2.6 per 9 innings (he had a 4.0 career BB/9 ratio before '07). In '08, Meche did something few players can do: win 14 games on the Royals. He was the first one to win 14 games on the Royals since Paul Byrd in 2002. (Obviously Zach Greinke did it in his Cy Young season in '09 as well.) Meche went 14-11 with a 3.98 ERA and a career-high 183 K's in 34 starts and 210.1 IP.
Through June 17th, 2009, Meche seemed to be on pace for his best season. Through 14 starts he had a 3.31 ERA and 67 strikeouts compared to 31 walks in 84.1 IP. But, after his 132-pitch complete game shutout on June 16th, Meche went just 2-5 with an 8.46 ERA. A good pitcher never just collapses like that at age 30. It was the 132 pitches.
In 2010, Meche went just 0-5 with a 5.69 ERA and just 41 strikeouts versus 38 walks in 9 starts, 11 relief appearances, and 61.2 IP. He missed from May 25th to September 1st with his shoulder injury. His career was over at age 32 (his 32nd birthday was September 8th).
What's the message here? Two things: 1) you have to be somewhat careful with any pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery, and 2) no pitcher should be kept in for over 130 pitches except when ABSOLUTELY necessary. I'm not saying that pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery shouldn't throw 200 innings, but you have to let him work back up to a regular big league workload. Meche's career was sidetracked because the Mariners let him throw 186.1 innings right after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Then, after the Royals acquired him, they let him throw 216 innings, a jump of 30 innings from '06 to '07 and 50 IP over his average the previous two years. He was still 28 when the Royals got him, and even though they signed him to a big contract to be their ace, the Royals had to limit him somewhat to make sure that he could hold up all 5 years and still be effective. They didn't limit him at all, and not only was he not durable the past two years, but he couldn't even last the entirety of his contract. If I was the Royals I would have limited him to 200 innings in '07 and then let him pitch much a few more that that in '08 and around the same the rest of his deal. Again, they didn't and it cost them.
Let's go back to the trio above: Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Cliff Lee. We know all of them as innings eaters who often finish games. Halladay has thrown 130 or pitches in a game three times, one time each of the past three seasons. CC has throw over 130 pitches in a game just once in his career, during his wild card chase with the Brewers in '08. Cliff Lee has NEVER thrown 130 or more pitches in a game. Even for veterans, you can't throw pitch counts completely out the window. In non-must-win games, no pitcher should throw 130 or more pitches in a game, even if they're throwing a no-hitter (I'm talking to you, D-backs, about Edwin Jackson who you let throw a crazy 149 pitches in his 8-walk no-hitter).
We know that there are many young pitchers right now who could become the next Gil Meche by being overworked, especially after Tommy John surgery, and being forced to retire early. Teams, don't let that happen.
Monday, January 17, 2011
What does the Soriano signing mean for Joba?
As soon as the Yankees signed ex-Rays closer to a three year deal (with two out-clauses), everybody started asking about Joba Chamberlain. Should they trade him? Should they made him a starter again? Let's figure out what the Yankees should do with Joba (not that they necessarily will do what I say) by looking at his stats and the Yankee bullpen as a whole.
Contrary to popular belief, Joba didn't have terrible season in '10. He went 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA, and 77 K's in 73 relief appearances in 71.2 IP. He recorded 25 holds and 3 saves. Joba didn't do anything that typical bad relievers do. He allowed just 6 homers, 0.8 per 9 innings, and walked 22, 2.8 per 9. His strikeout to walk ratio was a staggering 3.50! But he allowed 71 hits, 8.9 per 9. You just can't allow that many hits as a reliever. Still, that's his only real problem. If he reverses that trend, he will be an effective reliever.
Let's look at the entire Yankee bullpen to see if Joba is still needed in the bullpen. Mariano Rivera (3-3, 1.80 ERA, 33 saves in '10) is as good as ever. Soriano is outstanding as well (3-2, 1.73, 45 saves, and 11-20, 2.73, 88 saves in his career). Robertson (4-5, 3.82, 14 holds) was outstanding from June on (4-3, 2.58, 8 holds). Logan (2-0, 2.93, 13 holds) was solid as a lefty specialist. So was Pedro Feliciano (3-6, 3.30, 23 holds) for the Mets. Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33, 1 hold) even had his share of success. Those are the guys who will for sure be in the Yankee bullpen. Then, you can add in Damaso Marte (0-0, 4.08, 9 holds) when he comes back from a shoulder injury. Also, the Yankees signed Mark Prior (hey, you never know) who will probably be a reliever, Neal Cotts (0-2, 4.29, 10 holds in '08 before struggling to a 7.36 ERA in '09 in 19 games and undergoing Tommy John surgery and suffering a hip injury, causing him to miss all of '10), and Brian Schlitter (0-1, 12.38 in 7 big league appearances, but 2-1, 3.15, 13 saves at Triple-A). All three are ex-Cubs (thank you Larry Rothschild). The Yankees have also acquired or called up (in no particular order) Ryan Pope (4-6, 4.20, 17 saves at Double-A), Andy Sisco (4-4, 4.32 at Double-A), Brian Anderson (a converted outfielder who went 0-0 2.08 in the minor in '10, including a 2.57 ERA at Triple-A), Buddy Carlyle (2-0, 3.59, somehow 0 holds in '08, but posted an 8.86 ERA in '09 and went to Japan for '10), Daniel Turpen (7-6, 4.30, 4 saves), and lefty Robert Fish (2-0, 1.12 at High-A, but then a scary 8.93 ERA at Double-A). The Yankees have a lot of bullpen candidates. Do they need Joba? Why couldn't a healthy Prior or Pope put up a 4.40 ERA for the Yankees?
So now it may be down to trading Joba are making him a starter (again). How has Joba done as a starter? He's 12-7 with a 4.18 ERA and 206 K's in 43 career starts and 221.2 IP. He went 9-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 133 K's in 31 starts in the Yankees' championship season of '09. That's certainly not great, but it could be an upgrade over the other 5th starter candidates (see this post: Are the Yankees doomed without Pettitte?).
So, what should the Yankees do with Joba? What I would do is stretch out Joba over spring training and give him a chance to win the 5th starter job. If he does win the job and is at least somewhat successful, then great. If not, some team will want to trade for him.
Contrary to popular belief, Joba didn't have terrible season in '10. He went 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA, and 77 K's in 73 relief appearances in 71.2 IP. He recorded 25 holds and 3 saves. Joba didn't do anything that typical bad relievers do. He allowed just 6 homers, 0.8 per 9 innings, and walked 22, 2.8 per 9. His strikeout to walk ratio was a staggering 3.50! But he allowed 71 hits, 8.9 per 9. You just can't allow that many hits as a reliever. Still, that's his only real problem. If he reverses that trend, he will be an effective reliever.
Let's look at the entire Yankee bullpen to see if Joba is still needed in the bullpen. Mariano Rivera (3-3, 1.80 ERA, 33 saves in '10) is as good as ever. Soriano is outstanding as well (3-2, 1.73, 45 saves, and 11-20, 2.73, 88 saves in his career). Robertson (4-5, 3.82, 14 holds) was outstanding from June on (4-3, 2.58, 8 holds). Logan (2-0, 2.93, 13 holds) was solid as a lefty specialist. So was Pedro Feliciano (3-6, 3.30, 23 holds) for the Mets. Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33, 1 hold) even had his share of success. Those are the guys who will for sure be in the Yankee bullpen. Then, you can add in Damaso Marte (0-0, 4.08, 9 holds) when he comes back from a shoulder injury. Also, the Yankees signed Mark Prior (hey, you never know) who will probably be a reliever, Neal Cotts (0-2, 4.29, 10 holds in '08 before struggling to a 7.36 ERA in '09 in 19 games and undergoing Tommy John surgery and suffering a hip injury, causing him to miss all of '10), and Brian Schlitter (0-1, 12.38 in 7 big league appearances, but 2-1, 3.15, 13 saves at Triple-A). All three are ex-Cubs (thank you Larry Rothschild). The Yankees have also acquired or called up (in no particular order) Ryan Pope (4-6, 4.20, 17 saves at Double-A), Andy Sisco (4-4, 4.32 at Double-A), Brian Anderson (a converted outfielder who went 0-0 2.08 in the minor in '10, including a 2.57 ERA at Triple-A), Buddy Carlyle (2-0, 3.59, somehow 0 holds in '08, but posted an 8.86 ERA in '09 and went to Japan for '10), Daniel Turpen (7-6, 4.30, 4 saves), and lefty Robert Fish (2-0, 1.12 at High-A, but then a scary 8.93 ERA at Double-A). The Yankees have a lot of bullpen candidates. Do they need Joba? Why couldn't a healthy Prior or Pope put up a 4.40 ERA for the Yankees?
So now it may be down to trading Joba are making him a starter (again). How has Joba done as a starter? He's 12-7 with a 4.18 ERA and 206 K's in 43 career starts and 221.2 IP. He went 9-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 133 K's in 31 starts in the Yankees' championship season of '09. That's certainly not great, but it could be an upgrade over the other 5th starter candidates (see this post: Are the Yankees doomed without Pettitte?).
So, what should the Yankees do with Joba? What I would do is stretch out Joba over spring training and give him a chance to win the 5th starter job. If he does win the job and is at least somewhat successful, then great. If not, some team will want to trade for him.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Phillies-Astros trade
The Philadelphia Phillies have traded left-hander Sergio Escalona to the Houston Astros for minor league infielder Albert Cartwright.
Escalona is a 26 year old lefty reliever who made his major league debut in 2009, but spent all of 2010 in the minors. He did OK with the Phillies in '09, going 1-0 with a 4.61 ERA in 14 relief appearances. He struck out 10 and walked 5 in 13.2 IP. Escalona even allowed 12 hits, less than one per inning, and he didn't allow a single home run. So why did he have a 4.61 ERA? He had 3 appearances with an ERA over 9 and didn't allow any other runs. Among those bad appearances was a real disaster in which he allowed 3 runs in a third of an inning for an 81.00 ERA. That appearance raised his ERA from 2.16 to 5.19. Based on that, you would think he could be a decent lefty in the Houston bullpen. But, based on his minor league perfomances, you wouldn't be so sure. After allowing a 1.77 ERA in 32 relief appearances at Double-A in '09, he posted a terrible 5.95 ERA in 14 relief appearances and a start that same season at Triple-A. In '10, he returned to Double-A, but posted just a 3.81 ERA. The Astros are banking a lot on his brief MLB service. But, based on his good strikeout rate in the minors (9.0, including 8.8 in '10), walk rate (4.0, but 3.6 in '10), hits allowed ratio (8.5 per 9, but 7.6 in '10), and homer rate (0.5 per 9, but 1.0 in '10) you would think he has a chance to be a good lefty reliever.
Cartwright is a very interesting prospect. He wasn't even in the Astros' organizational depth chart in the 2010 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. (Escalona was an unranked reliever in the Phillies' organizational depth chart.) But, he had a breakout season in '10, hitting .294 with 30 doubles, 10 homers, 55 RBI, 14 triples (wow!), 87 runs, 31 stolen bases, and a .355 OBP in 127 games between High-A and Double-A. But, he hit just .229 at Double-A. Defensively, he posted just a .953 Fld% at second base, making 29 errors. In 2011 at age 23, he'll have to return to Double-A. The Phillies are certainly taking a worthwhile risk in acquiring Cartwright. They hope that he can continue to put it all together offensively and improve defensively. If he can do that, he will prime trade bait, and/or insurance if Chase Utley gets hurt again.
This trade makes sense for both sides. The Astros are getting a reliever that can help them now, while the Phillies are getting an infielder that could help them in the future. Both teams are banking on a relatively small sample size from their acquired players. The Astros hope Escalona can at least match his '09 numbers in the majors, while the Phillies hope that Cartwright has another great season in 2011. This is an upside trade for the Phillies- they are trading a low upside reliever for a high-upside second baseman. Meanwhile, the Astros are getting a bullpen piece for now, rather than a minor leaguer who has only one good minor league season on his resume, and will likely not pan out.
Escalona is a 26 year old lefty reliever who made his major league debut in 2009, but spent all of 2010 in the minors. He did OK with the Phillies in '09, going 1-0 with a 4.61 ERA in 14 relief appearances. He struck out 10 and walked 5 in 13.2 IP. Escalona even allowed 12 hits, less than one per inning, and he didn't allow a single home run. So why did he have a 4.61 ERA? He had 3 appearances with an ERA over 9 and didn't allow any other runs. Among those bad appearances was a real disaster in which he allowed 3 runs in a third of an inning for an 81.00 ERA. That appearance raised his ERA from 2.16 to 5.19. Based on that, you would think he could be a decent lefty in the Houston bullpen. But, based on his minor league perfomances, you wouldn't be so sure. After allowing a 1.77 ERA in 32 relief appearances at Double-A in '09, he posted a terrible 5.95 ERA in 14 relief appearances and a start that same season at Triple-A. In '10, he returned to Double-A, but posted just a 3.81 ERA. The Astros are banking a lot on his brief MLB service. But, based on his good strikeout rate in the minors (9.0, including 8.8 in '10), walk rate (4.0, but 3.6 in '10), hits allowed ratio (8.5 per 9, but 7.6 in '10), and homer rate (0.5 per 9, but 1.0 in '10) you would think he has a chance to be a good lefty reliever.
Cartwright is a very interesting prospect. He wasn't even in the Astros' organizational depth chart in the 2010 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. (Escalona was an unranked reliever in the Phillies' organizational depth chart.) But, he had a breakout season in '10, hitting .294 with 30 doubles, 10 homers, 55 RBI, 14 triples (wow!), 87 runs, 31 stolen bases, and a .355 OBP in 127 games between High-A and Double-A. But, he hit just .229 at Double-A. Defensively, he posted just a .953 Fld% at second base, making 29 errors. In 2011 at age 23, he'll have to return to Double-A. The Phillies are certainly taking a worthwhile risk in acquiring Cartwright. They hope that he can continue to put it all together offensively and improve defensively. If he can do that, he will prime trade bait, and/or insurance if Chase Utley gets hurt again.
This trade makes sense for both sides. The Astros are getting a reliever that can help them now, while the Phillies are getting an infielder that could help them in the future. Both teams are banking on a relatively small sample size from their acquired players. The Astros hope Escalona can at least match his '09 numbers in the majors, while the Phillies hope that Cartwright has another great season in 2011. This is an upside trade for the Phillies- they are trading a low upside reliever for a high-upside second baseman. Meanwhile, the Astros are getting a bullpen piece for now, rather than a minor leaguer who has only one good minor league season on his resume, and will likely not pan out.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Crazy Rangers-A's (-Pirates?) trade
Just Billy Beane doin' work. The Oakland A's have acquired right-handed reliever Guillermo Moscoso from the Texas Rangers in exchange for minor league right-handed reliever Ryan Kelly. Kelly was acquired from Pittsburgh in late December, so he never pitched a single game in the A's system. Kelly was acquired from Pittsburgh in exchange for minor league UTIL Corey Wimberly who was acquired from Colorado in February 2009 for Matt Murton. Murton was acquired from the Cubs in the Rich Harden trade. It's chaos. Rich Harden is well, Rich Harden and Murton just set the record for most hits in a season in Japan, so let's just look at the other players involved in the more recent trades.
Moscoso's big league performance in '10 wasn't anything to write home about. He pitched in 1 game, two thirds of an inning, giving up 2 runs for a 27.00 ERA. Even in the minors he posted a 7-7 record and a 5.18 ERA in 22 starts and a relief appearance at Triple-A Oklahoma City. But, it's not too hard to see what Beane sees in him. Moscoso posted a good 7.8 K/9 in the minors in '10 along with a 3.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, and a terrible 10.4 H/9. For his minor league career, Moscoso has an 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, and an 8.5 H/9. He just had an off-year. Even if you want to argue that he was overwhelmed by Triple-A, he did post a 2.31 ERA there in 11 starts and a relief apperance in '09. Also, in 10 big league relief appearances in '09, he posted a 3.18 ERA. Beane seemingly thinks that Moscoso will be at least a somewhat effective big league reliever for the A's in '11.
But, why then would Beane acquire him in exchange for Kelly, a minor league reliever? Kelly isn't great, but he did post a 4.20 ERA in '10. He gave up 9 home runs for a 1.1 HR/9 ratio, but he posted a 9.0 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9 for an outstanding 5.36 strikeout to walk ratio. Oh yeah, one problem: Kelly repeated Low-A in '10 and turned 23 in October. Either Beane is an idiot for trading a player with potential because of his high strikeout and low walk rates, or he's a genius for getting a big league reliever for a pitcher who posted an ERA over 4.00 an Low-A.
Wimberly, who Beane gave up to get Kelly, seems to have more value than either Moscoso or Kelly. He turned 27 in October, but last year at Triple-A Sacramento he hit .284 with 14 doubles, 3 homers, 57 RBI, 7 triples, 97 runs, 56 stolen bases, and a .373 OBP. He even played a decent centerfield and posted fielding percentages at LF, SS, and 2B that a team could live with (while being a complete disaster at third base). Sounds like Jerry Hairston Jr. with speed to me. How could Beane possibly trade him for a relliever who posted a 4.20 ERA at Low-A, especially one that he used to trade for another player? It's not like speedy utility players grow on trees!
I am so confused. The A's, like all teams, do have some utility players (such as Adam Rosales), but why give him away for nothing? If Kelly wasn't nothing, why did he trade him for Moscoso? Conspiracy theory is that this was essentially a three team trade where the Rangers wanted Kelly, the A's wanted Moscoso, and the Pirates wanted Wimberly. But, why then would there be over 2 weeks between the Pirates-A's trade and the A's-Rangers trade? My guess would be that Beane was trying to get more for Kelly, which delayed the trade for a while. A typical two weeks in the life of Billy Beane.
Moscoso's big league performance in '10 wasn't anything to write home about. He pitched in 1 game, two thirds of an inning, giving up 2 runs for a 27.00 ERA. Even in the minors he posted a 7-7 record and a 5.18 ERA in 22 starts and a relief appearance at Triple-A Oklahoma City. But, it's not too hard to see what Beane sees in him. Moscoso posted a good 7.8 K/9 in the minors in '10 along with a 3.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, and a terrible 10.4 H/9. For his minor league career, Moscoso has an 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, and an 8.5 H/9. He just had an off-year. Even if you want to argue that he was overwhelmed by Triple-A, he did post a 2.31 ERA there in 11 starts and a relief apperance in '09. Also, in 10 big league relief appearances in '09, he posted a 3.18 ERA. Beane seemingly thinks that Moscoso will be at least a somewhat effective big league reliever for the A's in '11.
But, why then would Beane acquire him in exchange for Kelly, a minor league reliever? Kelly isn't great, but he did post a 4.20 ERA in '10. He gave up 9 home runs for a 1.1 HR/9 ratio, but he posted a 9.0 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9 for an outstanding 5.36 strikeout to walk ratio. Oh yeah, one problem: Kelly repeated Low-A in '10 and turned 23 in October. Either Beane is an idiot for trading a player with potential because of his high strikeout and low walk rates, or he's a genius for getting a big league reliever for a pitcher who posted an ERA over 4.00 an Low-A.
Wimberly, who Beane gave up to get Kelly, seems to have more value than either Moscoso or Kelly. He turned 27 in October, but last year at Triple-A Sacramento he hit .284 with 14 doubles, 3 homers, 57 RBI, 7 triples, 97 runs, 56 stolen bases, and a .373 OBP. He even played a decent centerfield and posted fielding percentages at LF, SS, and 2B that a team could live with (while being a complete disaster at third base). Sounds like Jerry Hairston Jr. with speed to me. How could Beane possibly trade him for a relliever who posted a 4.20 ERA at Low-A, especially one that he used to trade for another player? It's not like speedy utility players grow on trees!
I am so confused. The A's, like all teams, do have some utility players (such as Adam Rosales), but why give him away for nothing? If Kelly wasn't nothing, why did he trade him for Moscoso? Conspiracy theory is that this was essentially a three team trade where the Rangers wanted Kelly, the A's wanted Moscoso, and the Pirates wanted Wimberly. But, why then would there be over 2 weeks between the Pirates-A's trade and the A's-Rangers trade? My guess would be that Beane was trying to get more for Kelly, which delayed the trade for a while. A typical two weeks in the life of Billy Beane.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Will Jeremy Bonderman make an impact for any MLB team in 2011?
09:25 PM ET 01.06 |
Former Tigers right-hander Jeremy Bonderman is on the scrap heap of free agent starters right now after a 5.53 ERA in '10 and a 5.19 ERA the last four seasons. Is he even worth a look for the Yankees or any other team?
I'll just say it straight out: if Jeremy Bonderman signs a major league contract worth any amount of money with any MLB team (including the Yankees) I will rip that team. Here's why.
You have to notice that 5.19 ERA figure above. Bonderman hasn't had one bad season, he's had four. To compound the problem, he hasn't been healthy, missing time with injuries each of the last four season since tying for the AL lead with 34 starts in 2006. 2006 was Bonderman's one good year, as he went 14-8 with a 4.08 ERA and 202 K's in 34 starts in 214 innings. Bonderman had an outstanding 8.5 K/9 that year, but he has a career 7.1 K/9 and just one other year over 8.0. It's not like Bonderman might have great upside in '11 if healthy. Bonderman's downfall is interestingly hits allowed. He has allowed 3.1 walks per 9 innings, a decent ratio, and 1.1 homers per 9 innings, which is acceptable (but then again, he pitched his home games at Comerica Park), but he has allowed 9.5 hits per 9 innings in his career, very suprising for a strikeout pitcher. Even in his good (not superb) 2006 season, he allowed exactly a hit per inning (9.0 H/9). His only season in which he had under a hit per inning (8.2 H/9) was 2004, when he posted a 4.89 ERA. Was was interesting about that year is that in 7 starts he had an 11.92 ERA and he had a 2.97 ERA in his another 22 starts. He gave up 7 runs three times, 6 runs three times, and 5 runs once. That season shows Bonderman's problem throughout his career: he's a decent pitcher, but sometimes he just implodes. he has allowed 5 runs or more in a game at least 6 times every season of his career besides '08 and '09 when he appeared in a combined 20 games (12 starts). Roy Halladay has given up 5 or more runs in a start 6 or more times in a season just 1 time in the last 6 seasons. Felix Hernandez has just 1 such season on his entire career resume (2006).
Here's the bottom line with Bonderman: he's an inconsistent pitcher with little upside. If you're lucky, he'll give you a 4.00 ERA. He's a former 19 game loser and a 2-time 14 game winner, which says it all. He's been all the way down, but never really been an ace-type pitcher. Will somone offer him a minor league deal? Of course. Just don't expect too much.
Former Tigers right-hander Jeremy Bonderman is on the scrap heap of free agent starters right now after a 5.53 ERA in '10 and a 5.19 ERA the last four seasons. Is he even worth a look for the Yankees or any other team?
I'll just say it straight out: if Jeremy Bonderman signs a major league contract worth any amount of money with any MLB team (including the Yankees) I will rip that team. Here's why.
You have to notice that 5.19 ERA figure above. Bonderman hasn't had one bad season, he's had four. To compound the problem, he hasn't been healthy, missing time with injuries each of the last four season since tying for the AL lead with 34 starts in 2006. 2006 was Bonderman's one good year, as he went 14-8 with a 4.08 ERA and 202 K's in 34 starts in 214 innings. Bonderman had an outstanding 8.5 K/9 that year, but he has a career 7.1 K/9 and just one other year over 8.0. It's not like Bonderman might have great upside in '11 if healthy. Bonderman's downfall is interestingly hits allowed. He has allowed 3.1 walks per 9 innings, a decent ratio, and 1.1 homers per 9 innings, which is acceptable (but then again, he pitched his home games at Comerica Park), but he has allowed 9.5 hits per 9 innings in his career, very suprising for a strikeout pitcher. Even in his good (not superb) 2006 season, he allowed exactly a hit per inning (9.0 H/9). His only season in which he had under a hit per inning (8.2 H/9) was 2004, when he posted a 4.89 ERA. Was was interesting about that year is that in 7 starts he had an 11.92 ERA and he had a 2.97 ERA in his another 22 starts. He gave up 7 runs three times, 6 runs three times, and 5 runs once. That season shows Bonderman's problem throughout his career: he's a decent pitcher, but sometimes he just implodes. he has allowed 5 runs or more in a game at least 6 times every season of his career besides '08 and '09 when he appeared in a combined 20 games (12 starts). Roy Halladay has given up 5 or more runs in a start 6 or more times in a season just 1 time in the last 6 seasons. Felix Hernandez has just 1 such season on his entire career resume (2006).
Here's the bottom line with Bonderman: he's an inconsistent pitcher with little upside. If you're lucky, he'll give you a 4.00 ERA. He's a former 19 game loser and a 2-time 14 game winner, which says it all. He's been all the way down, but never really been an ace-type pitcher. Will somone offer him a minor league deal? Of course. Just don't expect too much.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Are the Yankees doomed without Pettitte?
Andy Pettitte will make a decision on his future within the next couple days. Will that decision determine the Yankees' fate in 2011?
The Yankees have a great lineup, but the obvious question is their pitching. CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 in '10) is a rock-solid ace, and Phil Hughes is a solid pitcher (18-8, 4.19), but after that, the rotation really tails off. Who knows what the Yankees are going to get from AJ Burnett (10-15, 5.26)? Then of course, without Pettitte, there's a huge competition for the 4th and 5th starter spots. The favorites are Ivan Nova (1-2 4.50 in the majors and 12-3, 2.86 at Triple-A) and Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33, but just a 5.93 ERA as a starter). The other options currently are David Phelps (10-2, 2.50 between Double-A and Triple-A), Andrew Brackman (5-7, 3.01 at Double-A, but strangely 5-4, 5.10 at High-A), and Hector Noesi (14-7, 3.20 between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A). Among those "other" options, I would think that only Phelps has any shot because Brackman and Noesi have a combined 3 games at Triple-A. The glaring omission from my list is Manny Banuelos (0-4, 2.51), but he has logged only 3 games at Double-A, so he's not ready yet. So, two of Mitre, Nova, and Phelps will be starters for the Yankees if Pettitte retires. Oh my gosh.
Pettitte went 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 101 K's in 21 starts and 129 IP. Of course, he missed two months with a groin injury. Would Pettitte be able to stay healthy in 2011? That's a big question. But, he would be very effective even if he posts a 4.20 ERA (like Hughes) in around 20 starts and is available for the playoffs.
Ivan Nova had a very interesting 7 starts in the majors. He went 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his starts. In the first inning he posted a 1.29 ERA. In the second inning, he posted a 0.00 ERA. What? He didn't even walk a single batter! In the third inning he posted a 6.43 ERA, but whatever, he posted a 2.57 ERA in the 4th inning. But then, he allowed a 15.00 ERA in the 5th inning. Wow. That's not good. He allowed as many homers (2) as he allowed every other inning COMBINED. Even when he survived the 5th, he posted a 6.43 ERA in the 6th. He just couldn't finish his 5 innings. To put it another way, he allowed a .196 BA the first time through the order, a .246 BA the second time through, and then a .400 BA the third time through! Every hitter turned into Ted Williams against him! (Fine, just almost as good- Williams hit .402.) But, the question is, was Nova's decline late in games a fluke or not? There are two reason that it was probably (not definitely) a fluke. Nova threw 187 innings between the majors and minors, easily his most ever, so maybe fatigue was a factor as he passed his previous high for innings (which he was 0.2 IP short of when he was promoted to the majors to stay in August). Also, Nova got really unlucky. And I really mean that. Overall, Nova allowed a .296 BAbip (batting average on balls in play), right around the league average, but he allowed a .444 BAbip with runners in scoring position. That's crazy. I doubt that not being able to finish his starts will not be as much of a problem for Nova in 2011.
Sergio Mitre. Please Andy, come back so we don't have to see this guy in the rotation. Mitre has a 13-25 record as a starter with a 5.48 ERA. How has he started 64 games? At least as a reliever he's posted a 4.34 ERA. It's not like anything's weird with Mitre. He has a .312 career BAbip, so that doesn't make his stats look any better. In all 9 innings, Mitre has allowed a BA over .265 and under .333. He's just not good as a starter, there's no two ways about it. I hope the Yankees don't make the mistake of putting Mitre in their rotation.
Would I be more confident in David Phelps as the 5th starter than I would be in Sergio Mitre? I think so. Phelps, who turned 24 in October, has never been regarded as an elite prospect yet he has performed well at every level of the minors. Phelps has a 2.50 ERA, nearly as good as Phil Hughes' 2.37 minor league ERA (I went more into that comparison here) and he has never repeated any level of the minors for any period of time. He isn't a strikeout pitcher (7.4 career K/9), but he has great control (2.0 career BB/9). He has also allowed just 0.5 homers per 9 innings. Most of all, Phelps is a winner, as evidenced by his 31-8 career record. Keep in mind that Ivan Nova was just 35-32 in his minor league career (3.80 ERA). Will Phelps be a competitor for Rookie of the Year is given that 5th starter job? Probably not. But, he should be able to post a 4.50 ERA and keep the Yankees in his starts.
Andy, please come back. Ivan Nova is pretty good and David Phelps might end up being a fine pitcher himself (Yankees, please don't make Mitre the 5th starter!), but Pettitte would certainly be better than either of them. Pettitte is pretty likely not to stay healthy the whole year, so Phelps would probably get his chance anyway (again, please Yankees, don't put Mitre in the rotation). Maybe the Yankees should sign a minor league free agent to compete with Nova and Phelps (and Mitre) if Pettitte retires, but if I was Brian Cashman, I wouldn't be too aggressive signing any of the remaining starters or doing some stupid move (i.e. Bartolo Colon).
The Yankees have a great lineup, but the obvious question is their pitching. CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 in '10) is a rock-solid ace, and Phil Hughes is a solid pitcher (18-8, 4.19), but after that, the rotation really tails off. Who knows what the Yankees are going to get from AJ Burnett (10-15, 5.26)? Then of course, without Pettitte, there's a huge competition for the 4th and 5th starter spots. The favorites are Ivan Nova (1-2 4.50 in the majors and 12-3, 2.86 at Triple-A) and Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33, but just a 5.93 ERA as a starter). The other options currently are David Phelps (10-2, 2.50 between Double-A and Triple-A), Andrew Brackman (5-7, 3.01 at Double-A, but strangely 5-4, 5.10 at High-A), and Hector Noesi (14-7, 3.20 between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A). Among those "other" options, I would think that only Phelps has any shot because Brackman and Noesi have a combined 3 games at Triple-A. The glaring omission from my list is Manny Banuelos (0-4, 2.51), but he has logged only 3 games at Double-A, so he's not ready yet. So, two of Mitre, Nova, and Phelps will be starters for the Yankees if Pettitte retires. Oh my gosh.
Pettitte went 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 101 K's in 21 starts and 129 IP. Of course, he missed two months with a groin injury. Would Pettitte be able to stay healthy in 2011? That's a big question. But, he would be very effective even if he posts a 4.20 ERA (like Hughes) in around 20 starts and is available for the playoffs.
Ivan Nova had a very interesting 7 starts in the majors. He went 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his starts. In the first inning he posted a 1.29 ERA. In the second inning, he posted a 0.00 ERA. What? He didn't even walk a single batter! In the third inning he posted a 6.43 ERA, but whatever, he posted a 2.57 ERA in the 4th inning. But then, he allowed a 15.00 ERA in the 5th inning. Wow. That's not good. He allowed as many homers (2) as he allowed every other inning COMBINED. Even when he survived the 5th, he posted a 6.43 ERA in the 6th. He just couldn't finish his 5 innings. To put it another way, he allowed a .196 BA the first time through the order, a .246 BA the second time through, and then a .400 BA the third time through! Every hitter turned into Ted Williams against him! (Fine, just almost as good- Williams hit .402.) But, the question is, was Nova's decline late in games a fluke or not? There are two reason that it was probably (not definitely) a fluke. Nova threw 187 innings between the majors and minors, easily his most ever, so maybe fatigue was a factor as he passed his previous high for innings (which he was 0.2 IP short of when he was promoted to the majors to stay in August). Also, Nova got really unlucky. And I really mean that. Overall, Nova allowed a .296 BAbip (batting average on balls in play), right around the league average, but he allowed a .444 BAbip with runners in scoring position. That's crazy. I doubt that not being able to finish his starts will not be as much of a problem for Nova in 2011.
Sergio Mitre. Please Andy, come back so we don't have to see this guy in the rotation. Mitre has a 13-25 record as a starter with a 5.48 ERA. How has he started 64 games? At least as a reliever he's posted a 4.34 ERA. It's not like anything's weird with Mitre. He has a .312 career BAbip, so that doesn't make his stats look any better. In all 9 innings, Mitre has allowed a BA over .265 and under .333. He's just not good as a starter, there's no two ways about it. I hope the Yankees don't make the mistake of putting Mitre in their rotation.
Would I be more confident in David Phelps as the 5th starter than I would be in Sergio Mitre? I think so. Phelps, who turned 24 in October, has never been regarded as an elite prospect yet he has performed well at every level of the minors. Phelps has a 2.50 ERA, nearly as good as Phil Hughes' 2.37 minor league ERA (I went more into that comparison here) and he has never repeated any level of the minors for any period of time. He isn't a strikeout pitcher (7.4 career K/9), but he has great control (2.0 career BB/9). He has also allowed just 0.5 homers per 9 innings. Most of all, Phelps is a winner, as evidenced by his 31-8 career record. Keep in mind that Ivan Nova was just 35-32 in his minor league career (3.80 ERA). Will Phelps be a competitor for Rookie of the Year is given that 5th starter job? Probably not. But, he should be able to post a 4.50 ERA and keep the Yankees in his starts.
Andy, please come back. Ivan Nova is pretty good and David Phelps might end up being a fine pitcher himself (Yankees, please don't make Mitre the 5th starter!), but Pettitte would certainly be better than either of them. Pettitte is pretty likely not to stay healthy the whole year, so Phelps would probably get his chance anyway (again, please Yankees, don't put Mitre in the rotation). Maybe the Yankees should sign a minor league free agent to compete with Nova and Phelps (and Mitre) if Pettitte retires, but if I was Brian Cashman, I wouldn't be too aggressive signing any of the remaining starters or doing some stupid move (i.e. Bartolo Colon).
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
The strange tale of former Yankee Ruben Rivera
The Yankees have traded so many prospects. Some have become superstars, but most of them have never amounted to anything. Ruben Rivera fell somewhere in between.
Rivera, a centerfielder who is Mariano Rivera's cousin, was signed as a 17 year old in 1990, the same year the much more famous Rivera was signed. He didn't play his first game in the Yankee system until 1992, but once he arrived, he did pretty well, hitting .273 with 21 stolen bases and a .417 OBP at Rookie ball. He posted just a .951 Fld% in CF, but with 10 outfield assists. The next season, he began to show five-tool potential at Short Season-A Oneonta, hitting .276 with 7 doubles, 13 homers, 47 RBI, 6 triples, 12 stolen bases, a .385 OBP, a .976 Fld% in CF, and 9 outfield assists. Before the 1994 season, despite being so far down in the minors, Rivera was named the 76th best prospect in the minors by Baseball America. In 1994, Rivera had a tremendous season. Between Low-A Greensboro and High-A Tampa, Rivera hit .281 with 28 doubles, 33 homers, 101 RBI, 6 triples, 101 runs, 48 stolen bases, a .357 OBP, a .978 Fld% in CF, and 7 outfield assists in 139 games. He showed all the skills necessary to be a superstar. Accordingly, despite still being at A ball, Rivera was ranked the 2nd best prospect in the minors entering the 1995 season. In 1995 between Double-A Norwich and Triple-A Columbus, Rivera couldn't quite repeat his 30-30 performance , but he had another outstanding season, as he hit .284 with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 74 RBI, 10 SB, 86 runs, 24 SB, a .390 OBP, a .981 Fld%, and 6 assists in 119 games. He was so good that he got his first "cup of coffee" in the majors, appearing in 5 games and striking out in his only AB. Rivera appeared to be well on his way to being a superstar for the Yankees (or whatever team he was traded to).
In 1996, everything changed. Rivera was ranked the 3rd best prospect in the minors entering the season, but he certainly disappointed, hitting just .235 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 46 RBI, 4 triples, 15 SB, a .324 OBP, a .972 Fld% in CF, and 6 outfield assists in 101 games. It wasn't a terrible season, but it certainly was a step backwards. But, that lack of performance in the minors may have been because he spent his first extended time in the big leagues for the Yankees. He hit .284 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 16 RBI, 16 SB, a .381 OBP, a perfect 1.000 Fld% at all three outfield position, and 2 assists. Rivera even earned a spot on the Yankees' ALDS roster (but not the ALCS or World Series rosters). Maybe Rivera wasn't going to be a superstar, but he certainly had a chance to be a productive big league player for the Yankees. But, the Yankees coaches were upset with Rivea's attitude, and to complicate matters, he hurt his shoulder throwing out a runner late in the season. In February 1997, Rivera underwent surgery on his injured shoulder. His future with the Yankees was in question.
Rivera never played another game in the Yankee system before being traded to the San Diego Padres while still injured. That trade sent Hideki Irabu to the Yankees. Due to his injury, Rivera played just 35 games between the majors and minors, hitting .225 with 2 homers and 2 SB in 18 minor league games, and .250 with two SB in 17 games for the Padres. He did not make any errors in the outfield or post any assists. He seemed to be declining more and more offensively. In 1998, Rivera hit just .144 in 30 minor league games! But, he did much better in the majors. He hit just .209, but with 7 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, 2 triples, 5 SB, a .325 OBP, a .973 Fld% in the outfield, and 3 assists in 95 games. It certainly wasn't a great season, but he did prove he could at least be a productive bench player.
In 1999, Rivera had one of the most bizarre seasons EVER. He played the entire season in the majors, hitting just .195 in 147 games. That's certainly not good. But, he hit 16 doubles, 23 homers, 48 RBI, 1 triple, 18 SB, 65 runs, and a .295 OBP. He nearly went 20-20 while hitting .195! He is the only player in the history of Major League Baseball to hit under .200 with over 20 homers and over 15 stolen bases. Unbelievable. About his 48 RBI's, it takes some skill to have your RBI's be barely double the amount of homers you hit in a season. He hit 18 solo shots and just 5 homers with runners on base. He hit just .160 with runners in scoring position. Defensively, he posted a .976 Fld%, but with 8 assists. What a season!
In 2000, Rivera had his best season, although it wasn't anywhere near as unique as '99. He hit above the Mendoza line at .208 with 18 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 6 triples, 8 SB, 62 runs, a .296 OBP, a .984 Fld%, and 10 assists. A whopping five other players have hit under .210 with 15 or more homers and 8 or more stolen bases (obviously, Rivera's 1999 season qualifies as well). Following the season, the Padres didn't care how unique Rivera was and they released him. He just wasn't a good player because of his low batting averages.
In 2001, Rivera was signed by the Cincinnati Reds. He had a bad season, but he set his career high for a full season with a .255 BA, 13 doubles, 10 homers, 34 RBI, 1 triple, 6 SB, a .321 OBP, a .983 Fld% in the outfield, and 4 outfield assists in 117 games. After the season, Rivera was re-signed by the Yankees, but during spring training, he made the stupid mistake of selling Derek Jeter's glove for $2500 and he got released. He was then signed by the Rangers, and with them, hit .209 with 4 homers and 4 stolen bases in 69 games. In '03, Rivera hit .180 with 2 homers for the Giants. At age 29, he had played his last 31 games in the majors.
After sitting out the '04 season, Rivera signed a minor league contract with the Yankees. After hitting .118 in 6 games, he left and signed with Campeche of the Mexican League where he hit .342 with 21 homers, 71 RBI, 14 SB, and a .432 OBP in 80 games. Rivera was so good in the Mexican League that he was signed to a minor league contract by the White Sox in '06. He hit .239 with 16 homers in 107 games for Triple-A Charlotte, but didn't earn a call-up to the majors. Since then, he has played exclusively in the Mexican League, hitting .349 with 103 homers, and 60 SB the past four seasons. Rivera has now hit 256 homers in the minors and stolen 222 bases.
Rivera was supposed to be a great player, but he never really panned out for the Yankees or any other team. He had all the skills, but he just couldn't hit for average at all. Obviously, not all players can be 5-tool players, but if you're a 4-tool player, the missing tool better not be hitting for average (unless you're Mark Reynolds who has ridiculous power). Whenever you see minor league stats, you can't conclude that I player is going to be a superstar. You have to be able to put it all together at the major league level. Rivera obviously was unable to do that. (Not that he was a Quad-A player- keep in mind that he posted minor league BA's of .235, .225, and .144 from '96 to '98.) No prospect is ever a sure thing. Rivera was ranked the 3rd-best, 2nd-best, and 9th-best prospect in the minors entering the 1995, 1996, and 1997 seasons respectively. Were the Yankees right to trade all these prospects? In most cases, no. But, sometimes it's better to get a sure thing rather than a prospect who may or may not pan out.
Rivera, a centerfielder who is Mariano Rivera's cousin, was signed as a 17 year old in 1990, the same year the much more famous Rivera was signed. He didn't play his first game in the Yankee system until 1992, but once he arrived, he did pretty well, hitting .273 with 21 stolen bases and a .417 OBP at Rookie ball. He posted just a .951 Fld% in CF, but with 10 outfield assists. The next season, he began to show five-tool potential at Short Season-A Oneonta, hitting .276 with 7 doubles, 13 homers, 47 RBI, 6 triples, 12 stolen bases, a .385 OBP, a .976 Fld% in CF, and 9 outfield assists. Before the 1994 season, despite being so far down in the minors, Rivera was named the 76th best prospect in the minors by Baseball America. In 1994, Rivera had a tremendous season. Between Low-A Greensboro and High-A Tampa, Rivera hit .281 with 28 doubles, 33 homers, 101 RBI, 6 triples, 101 runs, 48 stolen bases, a .357 OBP, a .978 Fld% in CF, and 7 outfield assists in 139 games. He showed all the skills necessary to be a superstar. Accordingly, despite still being at A ball, Rivera was ranked the 2nd best prospect in the minors entering the 1995 season. In 1995 between Double-A Norwich and Triple-A Columbus, Rivera couldn't quite repeat his 30-30 performance , but he had another outstanding season, as he hit .284 with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 74 RBI, 10 SB, 86 runs, 24 SB, a .390 OBP, a .981 Fld%, and 6 assists in 119 games. He was so good that he got his first "cup of coffee" in the majors, appearing in 5 games and striking out in his only AB. Rivera appeared to be well on his way to being a superstar for the Yankees (or whatever team he was traded to).
In 1996, everything changed. Rivera was ranked the 3rd best prospect in the minors entering the season, but he certainly disappointed, hitting just .235 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 46 RBI, 4 triples, 15 SB, a .324 OBP, a .972 Fld% in CF, and 6 outfield assists in 101 games. It wasn't a terrible season, but it certainly was a step backwards. But, that lack of performance in the minors may have been because he spent his first extended time in the big leagues for the Yankees. He hit .284 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 16 RBI, 16 SB, a .381 OBP, a perfect 1.000 Fld% at all three outfield position, and 2 assists. Rivera even earned a spot on the Yankees' ALDS roster (but not the ALCS or World Series rosters). Maybe Rivera wasn't going to be a superstar, but he certainly had a chance to be a productive big league player for the Yankees. But, the Yankees coaches were upset with Rivea's attitude, and to complicate matters, he hurt his shoulder throwing out a runner late in the season. In February 1997, Rivera underwent surgery on his injured shoulder. His future with the Yankees was in question.
Rivera never played another game in the Yankee system before being traded to the San Diego Padres while still injured. That trade sent Hideki Irabu to the Yankees. Due to his injury, Rivera played just 35 games between the majors and minors, hitting .225 with 2 homers and 2 SB in 18 minor league games, and .250 with two SB in 17 games for the Padres. He did not make any errors in the outfield or post any assists. He seemed to be declining more and more offensively. In 1998, Rivera hit just .144 in 30 minor league games! But, he did much better in the majors. He hit just .209, but with 7 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, 2 triples, 5 SB, a .325 OBP, a .973 Fld% in the outfield, and 3 assists in 95 games. It certainly wasn't a great season, but he did prove he could at least be a productive bench player.
In 1999, Rivera had one of the most bizarre seasons EVER. He played the entire season in the majors, hitting just .195 in 147 games. That's certainly not good. But, he hit 16 doubles, 23 homers, 48 RBI, 1 triple, 18 SB, 65 runs, and a .295 OBP. He nearly went 20-20 while hitting .195! He is the only player in the history of Major League Baseball to hit under .200 with over 20 homers and over 15 stolen bases. Unbelievable. About his 48 RBI's, it takes some skill to have your RBI's be barely double the amount of homers you hit in a season. He hit 18 solo shots and just 5 homers with runners on base. He hit just .160 with runners in scoring position. Defensively, he posted a .976 Fld%, but with 8 assists. What a season!
In 2000, Rivera had his best season, although it wasn't anywhere near as unique as '99. He hit above the Mendoza line at .208 with 18 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 6 triples, 8 SB, 62 runs, a .296 OBP, a .984 Fld%, and 10 assists. A whopping five other players have hit under .210 with 15 or more homers and 8 or more stolen bases (obviously, Rivera's 1999 season qualifies as well). Following the season, the Padres didn't care how unique Rivera was and they released him. He just wasn't a good player because of his low batting averages.
In 2001, Rivera was signed by the Cincinnati Reds. He had a bad season, but he set his career high for a full season with a .255 BA, 13 doubles, 10 homers, 34 RBI, 1 triple, 6 SB, a .321 OBP, a .983 Fld% in the outfield, and 4 outfield assists in 117 games. After the season, Rivera was re-signed by the Yankees, but during spring training, he made the stupid mistake of selling Derek Jeter's glove for $2500 and he got released. He was then signed by the Rangers, and with them, hit .209 with 4 homers and 4 stolen bases in 69 games. In '03, Rivera hit .180 with 2 homers for the Giants. At age 29, he had played his last 31 games in the majors.
After sitting out the '04 season, Rivera signed a minor league contract with the Yankees. After hitting .118 in 6 games, he left and signed with Campeche of the Mexican League where he hit .342 with 21 homers, 71 RBI, 14 SB, and a .432 OBP in 80 games. Rivera was so good in the Mexican League that he was signed to a minor league contract by the White Sox in '06. He hit .239 with 16 homers in 107 games for Triple-A Charlotte, but didn't earn a call-up to the majors. Since then, he has played exclusively in the Mexican League, hitting .349 with 103 homers, and 60 SB the past four seasons. Rivera has now hit 256 homers in the minors and stolen 222 bases.
Rivera was supposed to be a great player, but he never really panned out for the Yankees or any other team. He had all the skills, but he just couldn't hit for average at all. Obviously, not all players can be 5-tool players, but if you're a 4-tool player, the missing tool better not be hitting for average (unless you're Mark Reynolds who has ridiculous power). Whenever you see minor league stats, you can't conclude that I player is going to be a superstar. You have to be able to put it all together at the major league level. Rivera obviously was unable to do that. (Not that he was a Quad-A player- keep in mind that he posted minor league BA's of .235, .225, and .144 from '96 to '98.) No prospect is ever a sure thing. Rivera was ranked the 3rd-best, 2nd-best, and 9th-best prospect in the minors entering the 1995, 1996, and 1997 seasons respectively. Were the Yankees right to trade all these prospects? In most cases, no. But, sometimes it's better to get a sure thing rather than a prospect who may or may not pan out.
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