Phillies-Astros trade

The Philadelphia Phillies have traded left-hander Sergio Escalona to the Houston Astros for minor league infielder Albert Cartwright.

Escalona is a 26 year old lefty reliever who made his major league debut in 2009, but spent all of 2010 in the minors. He did OK with the Phillies in '09, going 1-0 with a 4.61 ERA in 14 relief appearances. He struck out 10 and walked 5 in 13.2 IP. Escalona even allowed 12 hits, less than one per inning, and he didn't allow a single home run. So why did he have a 4.61 ERA? He had 3 appearances with an ERA over 9 and didn't allow any other runs. Among those bad appearances was a real disaster in which he allowed 3 runs in a third of an inning for an 81.00 ERA. That appearance raised his ERA from 2.16 to 5.19. Based on that, you would think he could be a decent lefty in the Houston bullpen. But, based on his minor league perfomances, you wouldn't be so sure. After allowing a 1.77 ERA in 32 relief appearances at Double-A in '09, he posted a terrible 5.95 ERA in 14 relief appearances and a start that same season at Triple-A. In '10, he returned to Double-A, but posted just a 3.81 ERA. The Astros are banking a lot on his brief MLB service. But, based on his good strikeout rate in the minors (9.0, including 8.8 in '10), walk rate (4.0, but 3.6 in '10), hits allowed ratio (8.5 per 9, but 7.6 in '10), and homer rate (0.5 per 9, but 1.0 in '10) you would think he has a chance to be a good lefty reliever.

Cartwright is a very interesting prospect. He wasn't even in the Astros' organizational depth chart in the 2010 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. (Escalona was an unranked reliever in the Phillies' organizational depth chart.) But, he had a breakout season in '10, hitting .294 with 30 doubles, 10 homers, 55 RBI, 14 triples (wow!), 87 runs, 31 stolen bases, and a .355 OBP in 127 games between High-A and Double-A. But, he hit just .229 at Double-A. Defensively, he posted just a .953 Fld% at second base, making 29 errors. In 2011 at age 23, he'll have to return to Double-A. The Phillies are certainly taking a worthwhile risk in acquiring Cartwright. They hope that he can continue to put it all together offensively and improve defensively. If he can do that, he will prime trade bait, and/or insurance if Chase Utley gets hurt again.

This trade makes sense for both sides. The Astros are getting a reliever that can help them now, while the Phillies are getting an infielder that could help them in the future. Both teams are banking on a relatively small sample size from their acquired players. The Astros hope Escalona can at least match his '09 numbers in the majors, while the Phillies hope that Cartwright has another great season in 2011. This is an upside trade for the Phillies- they are trading a low upside reliever for a high-upside second baseman. Meanwhile, the Astros are getting a bullpen piece for now, rather than a minor leaguer who has only one good minor league season on his resume, and will likely not pan out.