What does the Soriano signing mean for Joba?

As soon as the Yankees signed ex-Rays closer to a three year deal (with two out-clauses), everybody started asking about Joba Chamberlain. Should they trade him? Should they made him a starter again? Let's figure out what the Yankees should do with Joba (not that they necessarily will do what I say) by looking at his stats and the Yankee bullpen as a whole.

Contrary to popular belief, Joba didn't have terrible season in '10. He went 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA, and 77 K's in 73 relief appearances in 71.2 IP. He recorded 25 holds and 3 saves. Joba didn't do anything that typical bad relievers do. He allowed just 6 homers, 0.8 per 9 innings, and walked 22, 2.8 per 9. His strikeout to walk ratio was a staggering 3.50! But he allowed 71 hits, 8.9 per 9. You just can't allow that many hits as a reliever. Still, that's his only real problem. If he reverses that trend, he will be an effective reliever.

Let's look at the entire Yankee bullpen to see if Joba is still needed in the bullpen. Mariano Rivera (3-3, 1.80 ERA, 33 saves in '10) is as good as ever. Soriano is outstanding as well (3-2, 1.73, 45 saves, and 11-20, 2.73, 88 saves in his career). Robertson (4-5, 3.82, 14 holds) was outstanding from June on (4-3, 2.58, 8 holds). Logan (2-0, 2.93, 13 holds) was solid as a lefty specialist. So was Pedro Feliciano (3-6, 3.30, 23 holds) for the Mets. Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33, 1 hold) even had his share of success. Those are the guys who will for sure be in the Yankee bullpen. Then, you can add in Damaso Marte (0-0, 4.08, 9 holds) when he comes back from a shoulder injury. Also, the Yankees signed Mark Prior (hey, you never know) who will probably be a reliever, Neal Cotts (0-2, 4.29, 10 holds in '08 before struggling to a 7.36 ERA in '09 in 19 games and undergoing Tommy John surgery and suffering a hip injury, causing him to miss all of '10), and Brian Schlitter (0-1, 12.38 in 7 big league appearances, but 2-1, 3.15, 13 saves at Triple-A). All three are ex-Cubs (thank you Larry Rothschild). The Yankees have also acquired or called up (in no particular order) Ryan Pope (4-6, 4.20, 17 saves at Double-A), Andy Sisco (4-4, 4.32 at Double-A), Brian Anderson (a converted outfielder who went 0-0 2.08 in the minor in '10, including a 2.57 ERA at Triple-A), Buddy Carlyle (2-0, 3.59, somehow 0 holds in '08, but posted an 8.86 ERA in '09 and went to Japan for '10), Daniel Turpen (7-6, 4.30, 4 saves), and lefty Robert Fish (2-0, 1.12 at High-A, but then a scary 8.93 ERA at Double-A). The Yankees have a lot of bullpen candidates. Do they need Joba? Why couldn't a healthy Prior or Pope put up a 4.40 ERA for the Yankees?

So now it may be down to trading Joba are making him a starter (again). How has Joba done as a starter? He's 12-7 with a 4.18 ERA and 206 K's in 43 career starts and 221.2 IP. He went 9-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 133 K's in 31 starts in the Yankees' championship season of '09. That's certainly not great, but it could be an upgrade over the other 5th starter candidates (see this post: Are the Yankees doomed without Pettitte?).

So, what should the Yankees do with Joba? What I would do is stretch out Joba over spring training and give him a chance to win the 5th starter job. If he does win the job and is at least somewhat successful, then great. If not, some team will want to trade for him.