2011 MLB Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

Do the Pirates have any hope of making the playoffs in '10? No. Do they have any chance of finishing .500 or better? No. So, how will they do? How bad will they be? Let's find out.

Catcher:

Chris Snyder or Ryan Doumit? Take your pick. Neither? The Pirates sure wish that was a choice. Snyder recently turned 30 and owns a .229 career BA. Doumit turns 30 on April 3rd and owns a .268 BA. In 2010, Snyder hit .207 with 9 doubles, 15 homers, 48 RBI, and a .320 OBP in 105 games between the D-backs and Pirates. Doumit hit 251 with 22 doubles, 13 homers, 45 RBI, and a .331 OBP in 124 games or the Pirates. Snyder posted a .995 Fld% at catcher with a 23% CS% and 6 passed balls. Doumit posted a .990 Fld% at catcher with just a 12% CS%, and 9 passed balls and just a .929 Fld% in right field. Doumit is a better hitter, while Snyder is a much better defender. Could they platoon? Snyder is a righty hitter while Doumit is a switch hitter. Snyder has hit .220 versus righties compared to .248 versus lefties in his career. Doumit has hit .272 versus righties compared to .256 versus lefties. I guess Snyder could start against lefties and Doumit against righites. Either way, they're not that great. It's not like the Jeff Mathis-Mike Napoli platoon where Mathis was a great defender and Napoli was a great hitter. Snyder might be a great defender, but Doumit is just a decent hitter himself. The Pirates certainly have a bad situation at catcher.

First base:

34 year old Lyle Overbay, signed this offseason to a one-year, 5 million dollar contract, is lined up to be the Pirates' first baseman in 2011. Overbay had a decent year for the Blue Jays in 2010, hitting .243 with 37 doubles, 20 homers, 67 RBI, and a .329 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .996 Fld% at first base. He had a .285 BAbip in '10, so he pretty much is what he is at this point of his career. Overbay will be backed up by Steven Pearce. Pearce, who will turn 28 in April, hit .276 in the majors in '10 with 2 doubles, 0 homers, 5 RBI, and a .395 OBP in 15 major league games. He made one error at first base in 86 chances, which amounted to a below-average .988 Fld%, not that it makes a huge difference. In the minors, between High-A (2 games) and Triple-A (35 games), Pearce hit .331 with 16 doubles, 3 homers, 17 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and a .428 OBP. He missed time with several injuries, including a knee injury that required surgery that ended his season in August. The Pirates have two players who can play first base besides Overbay who will definitely be on the roster, Garrett Jones and Matt Diaz, but Jones will start in right field and Diaz in the primary backup in the outfield. So, based on that, Pearce has a chance to make the roster with a good spring training. We'll have to see what happens. Overbay will be a pretty good first baseman in 2011 for the Pirates.

Second base:

25 year old Neil Walker had a great rookie season, hitting .296 with 29 doubles, 12 homers, 66 RBI, and a .349 OBP in 110 games. Walker had a .340 BAbip, which would normally be very worrying, but he had a 23% LD% (league-average 19%), and a 71% IP% (league average 69%), so he should be pretty much fine. He posted a .985 Fld% defensively at second base (league average .984), albeit with below-average range. Walker was good enough to finish 5th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Walker's backup will be 26 year old Josh Rodriguez. Rodriguez, the first overall pick in the 2010 Rule 5 draft, spent all of 2010 in the minors, hitting .297 between Double-A (21 games) and Triple-A (86 games) with 30 doubles, 13 homers, 57 RBI, 6 stolen bases, and a .378 OBP. Defensively, he played second base, third base, shortstop, centerfield, right field, and left field, so he'll play all over the place as a utility player for the Pirates. He's a below-average fielder across the board, but he's best at second base (.976 career Fld%). He's a pretty good hitter, so as long as he survives defensively, he'll be a good backup. Walker is a good second baseman for the Pirates.

Third base:

Pedro Alvarez, 24, also had a good rookie season for the Pirates, hitting .256 with 21 doubles, 16 homers, 64 RBI, and a .326 OBPin 95 games. Between the minors and majors he hit 29 homers and drove in 117 runs. It all sounds good, right? Well, there are a couple of worrying factors. Alvarez needed a .341 BAbip to his .256. He had a crazy 14.8 HR/FB. And, he posted just a 55 IP% and a 14% LD% while striking out 30.8% of the time (league average 18.5%). Alvarez can obviously improve as a hitter, but if his BAbip and HR/FB return to neutral while his IP% and LD% remain the same, Alvarez could conceivably hit .200 with just 15 homers for a full season. But, considering that Alvarez hit 40 homers in 192 minor league games, you have to think that either a) he just hits the ball in a way that more of his fly balls go for home runs and/or b) he's a good enough hitter to adjust. He posted just a .938 Fld% defensively, but he showed outstanding range. He has tremendous talent. He'll be backed up by Rodriguez. Alvarez is a good talent, and hopefully he'll make strides in 2011.

Shortstop:

Ronny Cedeno, who recently turned 28, had a pretty terrible year in 2010, hitting .256 with 29 doubles, 8 homers, 38 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and just a .293 OBP in 139 games. He had a .315 BAbip, so it's not like he was unlucky, but he had just a 13% LD%. He walked just 4.6% of his plate appearances, compared to the league average of 8.5%. Cedeno is essentially a singles hitter who doesn't walk. Defensively, he was slightly below-average with a .969 Fld%, but he showed above-average range. He's a decent player at best. He'll be backed up by Rodriguez. Cedeno is nothing more than a halfway decent player for the Pirates.

Left field:

Tabata was another solid rookie for the Pirates. The 22 year old hit .299 with 21 doubles, 4 homers, 35 RBI, 19 stolen bases, and a .346 OBP in 102 games. He did have a .339 BAbip and a 17% LD%, but he had a great 78% IP% and a 3.3 HR/FB. When everything evens out, he'll still prove to be a good hitter. He was outstanding defensively in left field posting a .995 Fld% with great range and 5 outfield assists. He finished 8th in the Rookie of the Year voting. Tabata is a good player. He'll be backed up by Matt Diaz , John Bowker, and Rodriguez. Matt Diaz hit .250 for the Braves in '10 with 17 doubles, 7 homers, 31 RBI, and a .302 OBP in 84 games. He isn't very good defensively, considering he posted a below-average .979 Fld% and below-average range in left field in '10 (he has a .981 career Fld% in right field and 1.000 in 2 games in centerfield). He's a decent backup. Bowker hit .219 in '10 with 8 doubles, 5 homers, 21 RBI, and a .281 OBP in 67 games between the Giants and Pirates. He posted a .985 Fld% in the outfield. He's good enough to be a 5th outfielder. Jose Tabata is another budding young star for the Pirates.

Centerfield:

24 year old star Andrew McCutchen had a great season for the Pirates, hitting .286 with 35 doubles, 16 homers, 56 RBI, 94 runs, 33 stolen bases, and a .365 OBP in 154 games. He had a .311 BAbip, so he wasn't overly lucky. He's for real. He had a league-average .987 Fld%, but he showed great range. He'll be backed up by Diaz Bowker, and Rodriguez, McCutchen is a really great player and the only real established star on the Pirates.

Right field:

29 year old Garrett Jones proved to be a good RBI guy for the Pirates in '10, hitting .247 with 34 doubles, 21 homers, 86 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and a .306 OBP in 158 games. He did this all despite a .274 BAbip, and he still had a decent 8.1 BB% despite his .306 OBP, so as his BAbip rebounds, his OBP will in addition to his BA. He's a solid player. He posted a bad .971 Fld% in right field, but he showed great range, so maybe that will improve in 2011. Garrett Jones is a good player for the Pirates.

Starting rotation:

26 year old James McDonald was solid in 11 starts for the Pirates (he had been 0-1 with an 8.22 ERA in 4 appearances for the Dodgers), going 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA, and 61 K's compared to 24 walks in 64 IP. He allowed 59 hits, 8.3 per 9, and 3 homers, a great ratio of 0.4 per 9. McDonald was particularly great in September, going 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in 6 starts. McDonald also did all this while allowing a .320 BAbip, although he did allow just a 2.9% HR/FB. When everything evens out, McDonald will probably do slightly better, but a few more of his earned runs will come from homers. McDonald is an awful hitter, considering he hit just .050 in '10 with no RBI and 1 sac bunt. McDonald is a pretty good pitcher, and he is considered to be the de facto ace of the Pirates.

Arbitration winner Ross Ohlendorf went through a bizarre season in 2010. The 28 year old right-hander went just 1-11, but with a 4.07 ERA, 79 K's, and 44 walks in 21 starts and 108.1 IP. He allowed 106 hits, an 8.8 H/9, and 12 homers, a 1.2 HR/9. He was a decent pitcher. Ohlendorf missed time with a shoulder injury that ended his season. It's not like he was lucky or unlucky- he had a .289 BAbip, a 6.3% HR/FB, and a 19% LD%. He's not a good pitcher, but he might be good enough to place second among Pirates starting pitchers in ERA for years to come. Ohlendorf certainly wasn't decent with the bat, hitting .077 with no RBI and 2 sac bunts. Ohlendorf is just a decent pitcher for the Pirates.

Lefty Paul Maholm, who will turn 29 in June, has been a Pirate his whole career. He's had his good moments (10 wins in 2007, 9-9 record, 3.71 ERA, 206.1 IP in '08), and his bad moments, such as his 2010 season. He went 9-15 with a 5.10 ERA, and 102 K's compared to 62 walks in 32 starts and 185.1 IP. His main problem was hits allowed. He allowed 15 homers, a fine ratio of 0.7 per 9, but 228 hits, which amounts to an 11.1 H/9. But, that was because of a .332 BAbip despite an above-average ground ball rate (1.04 GB/FB, 1.56 GO/AO) and a league-average 19% LD%. It was the same story for Maholm in 2009, when he posted a 4.44 ERA. In his outstanding 2008, Maholm had a .294 BAbip. He even had an 8.0% HR/FB that season (compared to 5.2% in '09 and 5.1% in '10), although his 17% LD% was better than his 19% LD% in both '09 and '10. Could Maholm possibly return to his 3.71 ERA that year? I would seriously doubt it, considering Walker and Alvarez aren't good defensively at key defensive positions, but hey, you never know. Maholm's ERA will certainly rebound back into the mid-4.00's in 2011 if not better. Accordingly, Bill James projects a 4.52 ERA for him. He's certainly a decent pitcher. With the bat, Maholm is pretty bad, 'boasting' a .089 BA, no RBI, and 7 sac bunts. Maholm is a decent pitcher for the Pirates.

Hoping to shore up their pitching staff, the Pirates signed a pitcher from the Padres to a two-year, 6 million dollar contract. Unfortunately, they signed Kevin Correia. You may be surprised at Correia's stats while pitching half of his games at Petco Park. He went 10-10 with a terrible 5.40 ERA that was worse than AJ Burnett, 115 K's, and 64 walks in 26 starts, 2 RA's, and 145 IP. He allowed 152 hits, a 9.4 H/9, and 20 homers, a 1.2 HR/9. He was downright awful. Neutralized, he managed a 6.53 ERA. Oh my gosh. Were the Pirates paying any attention? In 2010, he had a .306 BAbip, compared to .298 in 2009, when he had a 3.91 ERA (4.62 neutralized). His LD% remained exactly the same at 21%. The only major difference was in HR/FB, 5.6% in '09 compared to 9.5% in '10. Still, that shouldn't raise his ERA by 1.49! There's absolutely no reason to believe Correia will rebound in 2011. At least he's a decent hitting pitcher, considering he hit .136 in '10 with 5 RBI and 6 sac bunts. Correia was a terrible signing for the Pirates, and they'll be lucky if he posts a 5.00 ERA in '11.

There are two candidates for the final spot in the Pirates' rotation: Charlie Morton and Scott Olsen.

Morton, a 27 year old right-hander, seems to be exactly what you'd expect from a Pirates pitcher. Brace yourself for his 2010 stats: 2-12 record, 7.57 ERA, 59 K's, 26 walks, 112 hits allowed (12.7 H/9), and 15 homers allowed (1.7 HR/9) in 17 starts and 79.2 IP (he pitched to a 3.82 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts and 80 IP). Oh my gosh. He managed a -2.4 WAR for the Pirates. That takes some skill (or lack thereof). He even had a total -2.7 WAR after a -0.3 offensive WAR (.038 BA, 0 RBI, 1 sac bunt). But, you know what's funny? Morton had a decent 4.55 ERA in 18 starts in 2009. What the heck happened? Actually, exactly what you'd expect: an increase in BAbip, HR/FB, and LD%. In 2009, Morton had a .316 BAbip against him. After looking at that, you would think that maybe his BAbip would return to neutral and he'd post maybe a 4.35 ERA in '10 with average luck. Of course, that didn't happen. Instead, his BAbip hit rock-bottom, ballooning to .361. That explains his 12.7 H/9 in '10 compared to 9.5 in '09. And why did that happen? Because of an increase in LD%. Morton had a good 17% LD% in 2009, but a terrible 22% LD% in '10. You have to hope that Morton will be able to fix that in 2011 (presumably by keeping the ball away from the middle of the plate). Of course though, that wasn't his only problem. He allowed a 10.7 HR/FB (further enhancing my hypothesis that he allowed too many hittable pitches). There's a good amount of luck involved with HR/FB (there's a 1 inch [or less] difference on the bat between a homer and a fly ball to the track), but I feel like the increase in LD% coupled with his increase in HR/FB has to be because of too many hittable pitches allowed. Looking at the Pitch F/X data at http://brooksbaseball.net, it's no hypothesis, I'm right (I did only look at a sample of games). He did improve in September, leading to a 4.09 ERA, 0.5 HR/9, and a 21% LD% compared to a 10.03 ERA, a 2.5 HR/9, and a 23 LD% the rest of the season (his BAbip decreased to .337 from .376 ). Morton was straightened out after coming back to the minors (although his first start back in late August was a complete disaster, considering he allowed 7 ER in 3.1 IP). Maybe Morton won't post a low-4.00's ERA in 2011, but you have to be encouraged by his September stats. If the Pirates have the guts to look past his 7.57 ERA in '10, Morton should certainly be considered for the 5th starter job.

It's not as though Olsen's 2010 stats blew Morton out of the water. Olsen was certainly better, but better is a comparative word, and it's certainly not hard to be better than a 7.57 ERA. Even a pitcher with a 7.56 ERA would be better than Morton. Anyway, Olsen, a lefty, had a pretty bad year for the Nats in '10, going 4-8 with a 5.56 ERA, 53 K's, and 27 walks in 15 starts, 2 RA's, and 81 IP. He allowed 93 hits, a 10.3 H/9, and 10 homers, a 1.1 HR/9. Olsen's last decent season was 2008, when he went 8-11 with 4.20 ERA in 33 starts for the Marlins. He went 2-4 with a 6.03 ERA in 11 starts for the Nats in 2009. How good is Olsen, really? Olsen had a .317 BAbip is '10, compared to a .348 in 2009 and .261 in 2008. His LD% over that time frame were 20% in 2010, 23% in 2009 and 19% in 2008. What those stats tell us is that Olsen didn't allow a 10.4 H/9 because of a bad line drive rate, so he was a bit unlucky, but even with a 9.0 H/9, how much better would his ERA have been? 5.00? He also had a below-average 7.1 HR/FB in '10, so that's not what made him so bad in 2010! Olsen isn't a good pitcher. He needed a .261 BAbip to post a 4.20 ERA in '10, and add .40 to any pitcher's BAbip, and his ERA will certainly go up at least half a run. If his BAbip and HR/FB are neutral in 2010, I would expect something like a 4.70 ERA if he wins the 5th starter job. Olsen doesn't impress with the bat either, considering he hit just .083 in '10 with no RBI and 4 sac bunts. At least he's only signed for one year, and for just $550,000 (there's a 4 million dollar team option in 2012). Olsen might be able to be a decent 5th starter for the Pirates if given the chance.

We'll have to see how they perform in Spring Training, but I feel like Morton has the edge. He has the potential to be an effective starter with average luck while Olsen, with average luck, would be worse than him. But, Morton still has options left, and Olsen is signed to a major league contract. Morton will need an exceptional spring training to take the job from Olsen to begin the year. Olsen has made just 6 professional relief appearances, so it's unclear whether he could adapt to being a long reliever. I feel like somehow, some way, Charlie Morton will end up as the Pirates' 5th starter, if not out of spring training then at some point during the year. He's just a better pitcher. It's unfortunate that due to bad luck he's never gotten to prove that.

Bullpen:

I usually make the position of closer its own category, but although Joel Hanrahan has been named the closer over Evan Meek to begin the year, it's unclear whether he will retain that role. There's certainly more uncertainty for the Pirates at closer than for your average team.

Withholding his ERA for a second, Hanrahan, a 29 year old right-hander, seemed to have a great year based on several numbers. He went 4-1 with 100 K's, an impressive out of the bullpen and which amounted to a 12.9 K/9, 26 walks, which came out to a 3.4 BB/9, a 3.85 K/BB (strikeout to walk) ratio, 58 hits allowed, a 7.5 H/9, and 6 homers, a decent 0.8 HR/9, 18 holds, and 6 saves in 72 RA's and 69.2 IP. He sounds like an awfully good pitcher. What would you think his ERA was? At least under 3.00, right? In reality, Hanrahan had a 3.62 ERA. I guess you have to point to his homer rate as the reason he posted his 3.62 ERA, but otherwise, he was downright incredible. He allowed a 7.5 H/9 despite a .329 BAbip. The .329 BAbip was just Hanrahan being unlucky because he had an 18% LD%. Hanrahan allowed just a 59% IP%, 10% lower than the MLB average of 69%, which is what you would think made him so good. He allowed his 0.8 HR/9 because of a 7.5% HR/FB that was right around the league average of 7.7%. He still sounds like a pitcher who should have posted an ERA under 3.00 to me. Maybe if his BAbip goes down to .300, that would be enough to get him to a high 2.00's ERA. Hanrahan maybe gives up a few too many homers to be a top-flight closer, but he seems like he would do a decent job in the role, at least getting 20 saves.

Meek, who will turn 28 in May, would seem like a great closer candidate if I withhold a different stat for a moment. Meek went 5-4 with a 2.14 ERA, 31 walks, a 3.5 BB/9, 53 hits allowed, which comes out to a great 6.0 H/9, 5 homers, which is good for a 0.6 HR/9, 15 holds, and 4 saves in 70 RA's and 80 IP. Of course, I omitted strikeouts. Meek's 70 K's amounted to a 7.9 K/9, which is fine, but not great at all. How was he so effective without striking so many guys out? The reason was that he had just a .226 BAbip against him in '10. But, it certainly wasn't purely out of luck. Meek allowed just a 15% LD%, and he allowed quite a few ground balls, posting a 1.29 GB/FB ratio and a 1.93 GO/AO ratio. Meek just doesn't allow many hard-hit balls. Going along with that, Meek allowed a slightly-below average 6.5% HR/FB, close enough to neutral to make me think that Meek just didn't allow many hard-hit balls to the outfield, either. Meek gets around the relatively low strikeout rate by not allowing solid contact. He's certainly a good pitcher.

Hanrahan is more of a strikeout pitcher than Meek, but Meek allows very few hard-hit balls, similar to most closers. Hanrahan seems like he could be a decent closer, but Meek could be a very good closer, albeit unorthodox because of his somewhat low strikeout rate. Both of them could be effective closers, but considering that Meek allows quite a less homers than Hanrahan and is a year younger than him, he'll be the better closer long term. I would expect Hanrahan to have a decent start as the Pirates' closer in '11, but after several blown saves because of long home runs, Meek takes over and pitches pretty well in the role. The loser for the job should be an effective setup man.

28 year old right-hander Chris Resop's 2010 stats weren't anything special. He went 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA, 26 K's, 13 walks, and 5 holds in 23 RA's and 21 IP between the Braves and Pirates. But, he allowed 15 hits for a great 6.0 H/9, and just 1 homer for a 0.4 HR/9. He had no noticable flaw! It's not like Hanrahan where he had somewhat of a problem in terms of homers. What's going on here? Well, notice I said that he spent 2010 between the Braves and Pirates. He appeared in 1 RA for the Braves and 22 for the Pirates. He had a great 1.89 ERA for the Pirates. Clearly he had a great year for the Pirates, but how did he manage an overall ERA nearly 2.00 higher than his ERA with the Pirates if he made just one relief appearance for the Braves? Get ready for Resop's stats on the Braves: in 1 two-inning relief appearance, he allowed 5 hits, 5 runs, 5 earned runs, and 3 walks while striking out 2 batters. That comes out to a scary 22.50 ERA. Again, take out that one appearance and he has a 1.89 ERA. Just looking at these stats, you have to say that Resop is a very good reliever who just had the worst night of his life in a relief appearance for the Braves. Is that really the case? During that one appearance for the Braves, Resop was the most unlucky pitcher in baseball, allowing an unbelievable .556 BAbip, not too far off from being double the MLB average of .300. Wow. But, after that, he allowed just a .220 BAbip. His luck completely flipped. There's a good stat and a bad stat for Resop's time on the Pirates: he allowed just a 53% IP%, which is outstanding, but he allowed a 21% LD%. In terms of BAbip, Resop was certainly very lucky to allow a .220 BAbip on the Pirates despite a 21% LD%. Resop's BAbip should come back to earth in 2011, but if he keeps up that 53% IP% he should be fine. I doubt Resop will put up a sub-2.00 ERA for the Pirates in 2011, but he has a could chance of putting up a sub-3.00 ERA.

So far, I've mentioned three relievers for the Pirates, and all of them are pretty good. Will Chris Leroux continue the trend? Well, Leroux, who will turn 27 in April, didn't exactly put up the kind of numbers you want to see- in 23 RA's and 22.2 IP, he went 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA, 22 K's, 14 walks, 28 hits allowed (11.1 H/9), 1 homer allowed (0.4 HR/9), and 3 holds. He certainly didn't put up good stats. But, stats can certainly be deceiving (see Charlie Morton). Leroux allowed a crazy .397 BAbip. That's just unlucky for him, right? He'll be a decent pitcher when his BAbip returns to neutral in 2011, right? Leroux was certainly unlucky, but he did allow a 23% LD%. You can't like that. Compounding the problem is that Leroux allowed just a 3.3 HR/FB. At least he allowed a pretty good 65 IP%, but you still can't like Leroux very much. Unless he really improves his LD%, you have to expect at least a 4.50 ERA from Leroux (unless of course, he gets really lucky). Leroux isn't a good reliever, and it's not a good thing for the Pirates that he's going to be an important part of their bullpen, considering who I'm going to mention next.

Before I mentioned Leroux, maybe you could have argued that the Pirates are not that bad of a team. That have a decent offense, a defense that has shown great range and could improve mightily in 2011, a decent rotation, and a couple of pretty good relievers at the back end of the bullpen. But then, there was Leroux, and also there's Daniel McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, and Jose Ascanio, two of which will make the Pirates out of spring training. Even if you say that middle relievers are replaceable, that doesn't matter unless you can replace them, which the Pirates can't do right now.

McCutchen, a 28 year old right-hander, is exactly what you'd expect from a Pirates reliever. In 2010, he appeared in 28 games, 9 of which were starts, going 2-5 with a 6.12 ERA, 38 K's (just a 5.1 K/9), 28 walks (3.7 BB/9), 83 hits allowed (11.0 H/9), and 13 homers allowed (1.7 HR/9) in 67.2 IP. (He didn't record any holds. He had a 6.49 ERA as a starter and a 5.47 ERA as a reliever. He was just plain awful. You have to wonder how the heck he managed an 11.0 H/9 with a .303 BAbip and a 15% LD%. At least his 1.7 HR/9 was because of a 10.0 HR/FB. Still, come on! McCutchen is not a good pitcher at all. I'll be shocked if he posts a sub-5.00 ERA in '11.

I can't say Karstens was that bad in 2010. THe 28 year old righty went 3-10 with a 4.92 ERA, 72 K's, 27 walks, 146 hits allowed (10.7 H/9), and 21 homers allowed (1.5 HR/9) in 26 starts, 7 RA's and 122.2 IP. He actually was halfway decent as a starter, posting a 4.78 ERA, but allowing a 5.87 ERA as a reliever. Karsten is a 5th starter-type pitcher, but he has no place in the Pirates' rotation right now. Karstens 2011 stats as a starter are pretty much what he is with neutral luck. He allowed a .309 BAbip, so he was a little bit unlucky, but not too much at all. He allowed a good 17% LD%, but a 77% IP%. He did allow a 10.1 HR/FB, so at neutral he would probably post closer to a 1.0 HR/9. With a .300 BAbip and a 7.7 HR/9, maybe Karstens posts a 4.50 ERA. That's the best he could do. But, that would be as a starter. In his career, he has a 4.92 ERA as a starter, but a 5.63 ERA in relief. Karstens hasn't gotten comfortable pitching out of the bullpen, even after 39 career RA's. Unless he finally adjusts to the bullpen, expect Karstens to post an ERA in the 5.00's in '11, unless he's given a chance to start.

Ascanio, who will turn 26 in May, missed all of '10 with a torn labrum. He appeared in just 2 minor league relief appearances, posting a 0.00 ERA and 7 K's in 2 RA's and 3 IP. Ascanio last appeared in the majors in 2009, going 0-2 with a 4.00 ERA, 20 K's, 9 walks, and 1 hold in 16 RA's and 18 IP between the Cubs and Pirates. He allowed 22 hits, an 11.0 H/9, and 1 homer, a 0.5 HR/9. Those are pretty good stats. But, when you consider he had a crazy .412 BAbip, you better be amazed. He even had a great 15% LD% and he still had that .412 BAbip. Despite that, he still put up a 4.00 ERA. You have to impressed. He did allow a 3.8% HR/FB, so he was lucky in that regard, but he also allowed a good 59% IP%. If those were his 2010 numbers, I would expect big things from him in 2011. But, he was a pretty good reliever then, not necessarily now. Could he be a good reliever for the Pirates in 2011? We'll have to see if he's healthy in spring training. If healthy, Ascanio could be an effective reliever for the Pirates in 2011.

Overview:

Simply put, the Pirates are not a good team. But, they're not as bad as they were in 2010. Their young players are developing, and maybe in a couple years, when their top pitching prospects such as Jameson Taillon arrive in the majors, they will contend. Not in 2010, though. They're not that bad of an offensive team, but they're below-average defensively, their rotation is decent at best, their bullpen is filled with holes after Meek, Hanrahan, and Resop, and even among those three, they don't have a proven closer. They'll improve in 2011, but it's hard not to improve on their 105-loss 2010.

2010 record: 57-105

Prediction: 63-99, 6th in NL Central

The Pirates will contend if... most of the following things happen: either Snyder or Doumit steps up at catcher, Overbay puts up decent numbers, Walker, Alvarez, and Tabata continue to improve, Cedeno survives offensively, Jones drives in 100 runs, McCutchen goes 20-30 (20 homers, 30 stolen bases), McDonald puts up a 3.50 ERA over a full season, Maholm and Ohlendorf put up low-4.00's ERA, Correia posts a mid-4.00's ERA, the 5th starter (Morton or Olsen) puts up a sub-5.00 ERA, Hanrahan or Meek steps up as the closer, and the bullpen as a whole posts a sub-4.00 ERA.