Just how bad was Randy Winn?

On Friday, Curtis Granderson returned from the DL and the Yankees designated Randy Winn for assignment to make room for him. So, basically the Yanks are admitting that they wasted 1.1 million by signing Winn. So, that begs the question of just how bad was Randy Winn.

I was a little bit skeptical the moment the Yanks signed Winn (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/557725-yankees-lf-winn-is-the-answer), but I didn't think he would be this bad. See the link above (copy into your browser and click enter) for Winn's career stats and those kinds of things, but here I want to go into specifically how bad Winn was in '10.

Let's start with just the regular stats: Winn hit just .213 in '10 for the Yanks with 0 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homer, 8 RBI, 1 SB, and a .300 OBP. Those stats are really bad to begin with. At least defensively he has an 1.000 Fld% in LF and RF. So let's go inside those stats. Against righties, Winn (a switch-hitter) hit .260, but against lefties, he hit .000. That's right .000. That makes Granderson's .183 BA against lefties last year look good! And Winn's a switch-hitter! I know it was just 11 at-bats, but that's inexcusable. Away from Yankee stadium, Winn hit .250, but at home, Winn hit just .182. Or how about this one! In wins, Winn hit .188, and in losses, Winn hit .241. He hit better in losses! Isn't that the exact opposite of his name!

I know a lot of people who think that Randy Winn always gets out in the clutch. Well, they're all right. Winn hit just .120 with runners in scoring position, .118 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position, and just .118 with runners on base at all. And, with the bases empty, he hit .333. Anyone is clutch compared to Randy Winn so far in '10.

To be fair, Winn did have a couple of offensive stats in his favor. After batting just .077 in May, he did hit .250 in April. Also, he hit just .125 coming off the bench, but as a starter, he did hit .226. Maybe this wasn't completely Winn's fault. But, you can't expect to hit .213 without at least a decent amount of homers and RBI's (yes, I'm talking about Teixeira) and expect to remain a Yankee for very long. He got out-hit by Kevin Russo. I know Russo is playing well, but come on! Winn didn't deserve to get the chance to win in the Bronx.

What ever happened to Kei Igawa?

What comes to mind when you think Kei Igawa? The worst or second-to-worst move the Yankee have ever made with only Carl Pavano possibly being worse? The Japanese pitcher who was supposed to counter Boston's signing of Daisuke Matsuzaka for a much better price?

The Yankees signed Japanese RHP Kei Igawa to a 5-year, 20 million dollar contract after the 2006 season. He was 27 years old at the time. After pitching in two games for High-A, going 1-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 6 K's in 2 starts, Igawa was promoted to the majors. He made a horrendous first start, going 5 innings and giving up 7 runs, but then gave up just 2 earned runs in his next 2 starts, pitching 5.1 innings in the first start, and 6.0 innings in the second. He was giving the Yankees some hope. But, he gave up 7 runs in 4.1 innings in his next start and was skipped over his next time out. But, it just so happened when Jeff Karstens was starting instead of Igawa, he got hit by a line drive and taken out of the game. Igawa was put into the game as a reliever and pitched 6 shutout innings to get back his rotation spot. But, Igawa gave up 8 runs in 4 innings his next start, and was sent down to the minors. He returned in July and September. Overall in the majors in '07, Igawa went 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA and 53 K's in 12 starts, 2 relief appearance, and 67.2 IP. At Triple-A, Igawa went 5-4 with a 3.69 ERA and 71 K's in 11 starts and 68.1 IP. In '08, Igawa played almost the whole season in the majors besides a start and a relief appearance in the majors, during which he posted a 13.50 ERA. But, Igawa played very well at Triple-A, going 14-6 with a 3.45 ERA and 117 K's in 24 starts, 2 relief appearances, and 156.1 IP. In '09, Igawa went 10-8 with a 4.15 ERA and 105 K's in 26 starts and 145.1 IP. He didn't play any games in the majors. In '09, Igawa became the Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees career win leader, not a distinction anyone would want.

In 2010, Kei Igawa is still at Triple-A. He has gone 2-1 with a 5.54 ERA and 25 K's in 5 starts, 4 relief appearances, and 26 IP. He is a bust. He has gotten worse every year in the minors. So, let's go into Pavano vs. Igawa for worst Yankee signing ever. Well, Igawa has 13 starts as a Yankee and is 2-4 with a 6.66 ERA while Pavano went 9-8 with a 5.00 ERA in 26 starts. Kei Igawa is the worse Yankee signing ever.

What's going with Mariners top prospect Dustin Ackley?

The number 1 overall pick in the 2009 MLB draft, Steven Strasburg, is doing very well and will be in the majors next month. But, the number 2 pick in the draft, Dustin Ackley is struggling. What's going on?

Ackley had an amazing college career. His freshman season in '07, he hit .402 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 74 RBI, 11 SB (3 CS), 70 runs, and a .448 OBP in 73 games. Ackley primarily played first base. He was voted national freshman of the year. His sophomore season in '08, he hit .417 with 21 doubles, 7 homers, 51 RBI, 19 SB (6 CS), 82 runs, and a .503 OBP in 68 games. He played mostly first base again. In his junior season, '09, Ackley hit .417 with 18 doubles, 23 homers, 73 RBI, 13 SB (5 CS), 75 runs, and a .517 OBP in 66 games. He once again played first base.

After being drafted by the Mariners with the 2nd overall pick in the 2009 MLB draft, Ackley signed a 5-year, 7.5 million contract. He played in the 2009 Arizona Fall League, and played well, hitting .315, with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 12 RBI, 1 SB (2 CS), 20 runs and a .414 OBP in 20 games. It seemed like everything was great. The Mariners started Ackley in Double-A. He has played 40 games so far and the results have been disastrous. Entering 5/27, he has been hitting just .203 with 8 doubles, 1 homer, 12 RBI, 5 SB (1 CS), 19 runs, and a .353 OBP in 40 games. The Mariners decided to put him at 2nd base, and he's posted a below-average .967 Fld%. So what's going on?

The reason that Ackley is not doing well is that he's learning a new position and he has to focus more on his fielding. He is not your typical 1st baseman (not that much power), but that's where he belongs. That's where he played in college. Or, he could play the outfield. Let's look at the current Mariners depth chart. At 1st base is Casey Kotchman, at 2nd base is Chone Figgins, and Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, and Milton Bradley are from right to left in the outfield. Figgins, Ichiro, Gutierrez, and Bradley all have multi-year contracts right now, while Kotchman has just a one-year deal. So, why don't the Mariners put Ackley at 1st base? Kotchman is hitting .190 right now!

That's what the Mariners have to do if Ackley is still hitting around .200 in 2 weeks or so. Ackley is a great athlete, and the Mariners probably think that it's a waste putting him at 1st base. But, what's the point of having a 2nd baseman if he only hits around .200! Ackley needs to be comfortable defensively to hit well. He has the potential to be the only consistant 20-20 first baseman in the majors- what's wrong with that?

Here's a possible problem: Johan Limonta. You haven't heard of him and neither have I until now. But, he's hitting .308 as the Mariners' Double-A first baseman. He doesn't play another position. So, what should the Mariners do? Let's look at the Mariner's other minor league affiliates. At High-A, Rich Poythress is playing first base and doing very well, hitting .289 with 11 homers and 44 RBI, so Ackley can't go there. At Low-A, 2 players have split the first base position: Dennis Raben and Vincent Catricala. Raben is hitting .221 and Catricala is hitting .276. Ackley should go there. You might think that he's such a top prospect and he can't be sent down to Low-A, but that's ridiculous. He's hitting just over .200 at Double-A- he deserves to go down a level or two. Hopefully, if the Mariners do what I say, Ackley would go down to Low-A, hit .300 or better, then come back to Double-A next year as the first baseman.

Maybe by going down to Low-A, Ackley won't be in the majors until 2012 or 2013, but again, why would you want a .200 hitter in the majors anyway? Unless Ackley immediately goes into a hot streak, the Mariners really should do what I say.

The glory years of Jose Lima

Jose Lima, who passed away at age 37 yesterday from a heart attack, mostly wasn't anything special during his career. But, for two years he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.

During his career, Lima appeared to be a bad pitcher. In his career, he was 89-102 with a 5.26 ERA. But, from 1998 to 1999, he had 2 very good years. In 1998, he burst on to the scene after 2 sub-par years as a reliever, in 1996 for the Tigers and 1997 for the Astros. But, in 1998 with the Astros, he was converted into a starter and had a great year, going 16-8 with a 3.70 ERA and 169 K's in 33 starts and 233.1 IP. He averaged over 7 innings per start, striking out 6.5 batters per 9 innings and walking just 1.2. His 5.28 K/BB ratio was the best in the NL. He didn't get any Cy Young votes that year, but no one on the list posted an ERA over 2.90. (Tom Glavine won the 1998 NL Cy Young award, and Trevor Hoffman finished 2nd.)

In 1999, Lima had a great first half, going 13-4 with a 3.23 ERA and 96 K's in 19 starts and 139.1 IP and was named to the NL all-star team. He pitched 1 inning in the all-star game, giving up no runs on just 1 hit. His 2nd half wasn't as good as he went 8-6 with a 4.04 ERA and 91 K's in 16 starts and 107 IP. Still, overall on the year, Lima went 21-10 with a 3.58 ERA and 187 K's in 35 starts and 246.1 IP. He finished 4th in the NL Cy Young voting to Randy Johnson, Mike Hampton, and Kevin Millwood. It was an incredible year for him. He was so good that his salary was doubled in 2000 to over 5 million dollars. But, he never lived up to that contract.

In 2000 he went just 7-16 with a 6.65 ERA. He continued to struggle in '01 and '02, going 10-18 between the 2 years with a 6.18 ERA. He showed some flashes of his former glory in '03, going 8-3 with a 4.91 ERA. In '04, Lima finally put it back together. He went 13-5 with a 4.07 ERA and 93 K's in 24 starts, 12 relief appearances, and 170.1 IP. It wasn't all-star quality, but it appeared he could at least be a decent pitcher. But, he finished up his MLB career with 5-16 with a 6.99 ERA with the Royals in '05, and an 0-4 record and a 9.87 ERA with the Mets in '06. After toiling in the minors in '07 and '08, he was done.

Jose Lima was a great pitcher, but just for a brief time. Every other season of his career besides 1, he was a bad pitcher. But, for those 2 years, he was a great pitcher, one of the best in the NL.

(Lima reportedly was on the list of the 103 names who tested positive for steroids in '03. Did he juice and that was the reason he was so good for just 2 years? I can't say for sure, but that definitely was a possibility.)

Some notes on the Yanks' crazy 11-9 win over Boston last night

Wow, what a game. It looked like a blowout win for the Yanks, then it looked like a terrible loss for them, and then it turned into a Yankees Classic. Besides all the drama, what made this game so special?

You may have noticed the home run totals in the game. The Yanks didn't have any homers until the bottom of the 9th will Boston had 5. Boston had 3 solo homers, a 2-run homer, and a 3-run homer. Homers accounted for all of Boston's runs except for the first one, an RBI single by Beltre to make the score 6-1 Yanks. In contrast, before the 2-run homers by A-rod and Thames in the bottom of the 9th, the Yankee scoring consisted of three RBI doubles, a 2-run single, an RBI single, and a sac fly. Another funny thing- did the Yanks forget about the "wind tunnel" in right field? Both of the Yankee homers were to LF or left-center, while 3 of the 5 Boston homers were to RF or right-center.

Despite all the homers, there was some pitching in this game. The order of the way the pitchers performed for Boston was interesting. Matsuzaka fell apart, giving up 6 runs on 9 hits in 4.2 innings. Then, Wakefield came in and shut the Yanks down, going 2.1 shutout innings and giving up only 1 hit. Bard then came in and threw a shutout inning, giving up no hits. Then of course, Papelbon came in and gave up 4 runs on 3 hits in 0.2 innings, blowing the save and getting the loss. So, if A were the terrible pitchers for Boston and B were the good pitchers for Boston, it would be ABBA- a chiastic structure. Does it have any significance? Well, maybe the pitching in the middle doesn't matter if your starter and closer have a terrible game. To prove this point, let's look at the Yankee pitching. Hughes had his first bad start of the year (it had to happen sometime, and he'll be fine moving forward), going 5 innings and giving up 5 runs on 6 hits. Boone Logan gave up 1 run in 1 inning on 2 hits. Park of course, continues to do badly, as he threw 1+ innings and gave up 3 runs on 4 hits, blowing the Yankee lead. (As a side note, Park his pitched in 4 games, and has given up the Yankee lead and been in line for the loss in two of them. Of course, the Yanks came back last night, so Park didn't get a loss). Then, Marte came in and pitched his heart out, throwing 1.2 innings of no run, 1 hit ball. Then, Vazquez came in and pitched 0.1 innings of no-run, no-hit ball, getting the win. So, only the last 2 Yankee pitchers gave up no runs. If A was bad pitchers and B was good pitchers, the Yankees yesterday would be AAABB. So, basically, it's really tough to win if your bullpen does badly at the end of games. Despite the bad start for Yankee pitching, Marte and Vazquez combined to shut out the Red Sox for the last two innings of the game, and that was enough for the Yanks to come back. (If you look, the Red Sox scored 3 runs in the 8th, but those were all when Park was pitching. After Marte came in, Boston didn't score any more runs in the inning.)

Back to the hitting. Every single starter in the game for both teams got a base hit except for Hermida for Boston. Only one base was stolen in the game, and not by Brett Gardner (who had 2 hits and a walk), but by Ramiro Pena. On both teams, every starter got an RBI besides the first 2 batters in the batting order and the last 2 batters in the batting order. On both teams, the second batter in the batting order drew the most walks on the team: Pedroia with 2 walks (the only 2 walks by Yankee pitching) and Brett Gardner with 1 walk (Jeter, Teixeira, and Miranda also had 1 walk each). All the homers on both teams were from "the heart of the order" (3 to 6 in the lineup).

One more thing about Park: when the stat sheet says "C Park faced 3 hitters in the 8th inning." (without recording an out), you know there's a problem.

Hope that's enough random stats for you.

Can Brett Gardner be as good as Jacoby Ellsbury?

Jacoby Ellsbury has been known as a great player. He is considered a very good player and a great base stealer. Can Brett Gardner be that good?

Jacoby Ellsbury was called up to the majors in 2007 and he made an immediate impact with the Red Sox. He hit .353 with 7 doubles, 1 triple, 3 homers, 18 RBI, 9 SB's, 0 CS, and a .394 OBP in 33 games. He posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in LF and CF. The next year in '08, Ellsbury had a good year, hitting .280 with 22 doubles, 7 triples, 9 homers, 47 RBI, 50 SB, 11 CS, 98 runs, and a .336 OBP. He posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% at all 3 outfield positions, primarily CF. He finished 3rd in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, only to Evan Longoria and Alexei Ramirez. In '09, Ellsbury improved even more, hitting .301 with 27 doubles, 10 triples, 8 homers, 60 RBI, 70 SB, 12 CS, 94 runs, and a .355 OBP. He posted a .994 Fld% in CF. He was a budding star. In '10, he hit .333 with 4 doubles, 0 triples, 0 homers, 1 RBI, 2 SB, 0 CS, and a .333 OBP in 6 games before getting hurt with a rib injury. He posted an 1.000 Fld% in 5 games in LF and 1 game in CF.

Brett Gardner was called up to the majors in '08 and made a decent impact, hitting .228 with 5 doubles, 2 triples, 0 homers, 16 RBI, 13 SB, 1 CS, and a .283 OBP in 42 games. He posted an 1.000 Fld% in CF and LF. In '09, Gardner hit .270 with 6 doubles, 6 triples, 3 homers, 23 RBI, 26 SB, 5 CS, and a .345 OBP in 108 games. Gardner won the Yankee CF job out of spring training over Melky Cabrera, but, he eventually lost his starting job. He also missed time with a broken thumb. But, so far in '10, Gardner has really had a breakout year. He is hitting .317 with 2 doubles, 1 triples, 2 homers, 12 RBI, 17 SB, 1 CS, 28 runs, and a .391 OBP in 35 games. He has posted a .975 Fld% in LF (1 error), and an 1.000 Fld% in CF. That error in LF will probably be his last or next-to-last error of the year and he will put up an Fld% around .995. If you project his hitting stats so far in '10 over the whole season, he would play in 153 games, hitting .317 with 9 doubles, 4 triples, 9 homers, 52 RBI, 74 SB, 4 CS, 122 runs, and a .391 OBP. That would be incredible and better than any season that Ellsbury has put up. The one strange thing about those numbers would be the only 9 doubles, but with 74 SB's, who needs doubles? I don't expect Gardner to be that good, but he definitely can put up a near-.300 BA with 55 stolen bases. The Yankees would still be very happy with that.

So, can Gardner put up Ellsbury-type numbers? Well, he has definitely has the ability to. If he plays anywhere near as good as he has so far in '10, he will match or at least come close to Ellsbury's career averages per full season (.291 BA, 60 SB). Can Gardner keep playing at the level he's playing at right now? That remains to be seen.

What happened to Mo?

I know that it was just one game, and that Rivera will be fine, but that was ridiculous. A grand slam? That might be the 2nd-least likely thing that ever happened to Rivera, only to game 7 of the 2001 world series.

He only allowed 5 inherited runners to score all of '09, but yesterday allowed all 3 of the runners he inherited from Joba to score. He walked 1 batter. Yes, Rivera occasionally walks batters. But, in 5+ innings, Sergio Mitre only walked one batter. Rivera threw 14 pitches, with only 7 of them being strikes. None of his strikes were swinging strikes. Yesterday was only the 2nd time all year that Rivera had 0 swinging strikes in a relief appearance. The only other time Rivera did not have any swinging strikes was when he threw 4 pitches to get a 1-out save against the Angels on April 15th.Rivera just didn't have his good stuff.

So, we know how bad Rivera was yesterday. But, why? That's a pretty simple answer. Rivera had an 11 day layoff between appearances from April 30th (a save situation) to May 12th because of some pain in his side. His appearance on May 12th was in a non-save situation in an 8-0 game. His next appearance was on May 14th, another non-save situation in an 8-4 game. Then, there was yesterday's appearance. So, there were 15 days between save situations for Rivera. He was rusty. He got into a couple of games since coming back from the injury, but no save situations. He just wasn't prepared to come in to a bases loaded jam. The Yanks should have kept Joba in, and whatever happened would have happened. Maybe if Rivera came into the game in a save situation, but with no additional pressure of runners on base, he would have been okay. That being said, I agree with Girardi's decision to bring Mo in because he expected him to be his regular self. Rivera has come back from injuries before and immediately done well. For example, after having to sit out from September 1st to September 7th 2009 with a groin injury (Phil Hughes saved 2 games), he came back on the 7th and got a save that game and a win the next game.

Basically, Rivera just had a really bad game because of rust from not being in a save situation for over 2 weeks. He'll be fine next game.

Why has Hughes gotten off to such an incredible start?

Phil Hughes has been the best Yankee pitcher so far this year, going 5-0 so far with a 1.38 ERA, 39 K's, and just 14 walks in 6 starts and 39 IP. He has not given up more than 2 runs in a start all year. Why has he been so good?

Including his days as a reliever, righties have hit .203 against Hughes during his career and lefties have hit .264 against him. So far in '10, righties are hitting just .109 against Hughes, and lefties are hitting just .208. Hughes has not started off well in April and May during his career, as he has posted a 5.36 ERA in April and a 4.22 ERA in May. Hughes had an incredible April in '10, posting a 2.00 ERA, but so far in May, he has a 0.85 ERA. Hughes has always rose to the occasion with runners in scoring position, as opposing batters have hit just .224 against him in those situations, but in '10, he's buckled down even more, allowing just a .154 BA with RISP.

These career numbers for Hughes sound pretty good, right? In a tie game, batters hit .251 off Hughes, when there's a 1 run margin in the game, batters hit .233 off Hughes, with a 2 run margin, a .227 BA, and with a 3 run margin, a .231 BA. When he's ahead, batters have hit .198 off Hughes during his career, and when behind, runners have hit .254 off of him. In '10, when there has been a tie game, batters have hit .098 against Hughes, with a 1 run margin, .095, with a 2 run margin, .116, and with a 3 run margin, .130. You can even look at the OBP's for those situations (.229, .219, .216, and .229 respectively) and they're still better than his career BA against in those situations. That's incredible! Batters have hit .206 against Hughes when he's been ahead in '10, and .000 when he's behind. No, that's not a typo, .000. The Yanks have given Hughes good run support, so he's only had 4 batters bat against him in 2 different games when he was behind, and none of them have a hit, so that's also very good. (All the batting averages in this paragraph from '10 were his batting average against in those situation before tonight's game).

No one expects Hughes to keep up these kind of numbers (if he does, he'll win the AL Cy Young, no doubt about it), but Hughes is showing what the Yankees saw in him in before the 2004 MLB draft, and in the minor leagues. Hughes disappointed a lot of the Yankee people and a lot of fans when given a chance as a starter in '07, going 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA. People gave up on him. I gave up on him. I was mad that the Yanks didn't trade him in a possible Johan Santana deal. But, the Yankees knew what they were doing. The Yankees knew they had a future all-star in Hughes. That's what he's showing right now.

Who will be the next Yankee catcher after Posada?

Jorge Posada is 38 years old and his contract expires after 2011. He will certainly retire after that contract is up. Is it too soon to talk about the next Yankee catcher?

Let's start with Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli is currently 24 years old. Cervelli never put up good minor league stats as his career high for homers in a season was just 3. But, he has done well so far in the majors. In '09 he hit .298 with 4 doubles, 1 homer, 11 RBI, and a .309 OBP. He posted a .995 Fld% at catcher with an incredible 43% CS%. He's gotten off to a great offensive start in '10, hitting .400 with 1 double, 0 homers, 12 RBI, and a .481 OBP. He has posted an 1.000 Fld% an catcher, but he has not thrown out an attempted base stealer yet in 6 tries. That CS% of 0% will definitely improve. Cervelli has filled in very well when Posada has been hurt, but could he be a full-time catcher?

Next, let's talk about the high-profile catching prospect Jesus Montero. He is currently 20 years old. He has done well in the minors the past few years. In '09 between High-A and Double-A, Montero hit .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games. He posted a .996 Fld% at catcher with a 20% CS%. But, Montero is struggling at Triple-A right now, hitting just .234 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 11 RBI, and a .294 OBP in 25 games. He has posted a .989 Fld% with a 25% CS%. The thing was Montero is that a lot of people consider him a CINO- a catcher in name only. Those people believe that Montero, who is 6 feet, 4 inches tall, has no future at catcher and will move to another position and/or be a DH. Theoretically, Montero could be the Yankee DH with Cervelli or Romine (who I will mention next) at catcher. So, will he even be a catcher when he reaches the majors? Montero reminds me of a former catcher who really jumped around and played every position, B.J. Surhoff, who is 6 feet, 1 inch tall. Surhoff started as a catcher, but during his career ended up playing every position other than pitcher. Surhoff had a pretty successful career, hitting .282 with 188 homers. But, Surhoff had a dimension to his game that Montero definitely does not have, as he had 141 stolen bases during his career including 21 in 1988 when he was still primarily a catcher. Surhoff's best overall year was in 1999 with Baltimore, when he hit .308 with 38 doubles, 28 homers, 107 RBI, 5 SB, and a .347 OBP. Those numbers are resonable for Montero (besides maybe the SB's). Again, Surhoff was a good player, but considering Montero's potential, the Yankee might want to be more careful with him than the Brewers were with Surhoff. After hitting .332 at Low-A in 1985 and .308 in Triple-A in '86, Surhoff was promoted to the majors and didn't play in the minors until 1994 when he played 8 games in the minors (maybe it was a rehab assignment). I hope the Yankees know what happened to Surhoff and will be a little more careful with Montero.

Austin Romine is another Yankee catching prospect, but he's not considered a CINO. He's currently 21 years old. Romine has done pretty well in the minors. In '09 at High-A, he hit .276 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 72 RBI, and a .322 OBP in 118 games. He posted just a .984 Fld% at catcher including 11 passed balls, but he also threw out 30% of attempted base stealers. Romine has gotten off to a hot start in '10, hitting .326 through 24 games at Double-A, with 9 doubles, 3 homers, 18 RBI, and a .396 OBP. He has posted a .994 Fld% at catcher and a 19% CS%. Romine might be the best candidate to be the next Yankee catcher, but he hasn't played above Double-A yet.

Cervelli might not be able to be more than a backup and Montero might not be a catcher when he reaches the majors. Assuming all 3 have a future with the Yankees, I would say that in 2012, Cervelli will probably start the year as the starter, Montero would be the DH, and Romine would start in the minors and come up to the majors to become the starter if necessary.

Who are these new Yankees?

With all the injuries, the Yankees are having all these young players going up and down from Triple-A to the majors. Let me introduce you to them.

Greg Golson is a 24 year old outfielder who was brought up to the majors after the Granderson injury. So far in '10, he has just come in as a defensive replacement in one game, not making a single plate appearance, but recording a putout in centerfield. After that game, he was sent down to the minors. I wrote about him here http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/554465-yankees-rangers-trade and here http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/635445-with-cg-hurt-hows-the-yankee-of-situation-going-to-look.

Mark Melancon is a 25 year old relief pitcher. He made his major league debut in '09, going 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 10 K's in 13 relief appearances and and 16.1 IP. So far in '10, he has made 1 relief appearance, going 2 innings. His first inning was a scoreless inning, but he gave up 3 runs including 2 earned runs. Overall, he went 2 innings, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) on 2 hits, one of which was a homer, and striking out 1 batter. After that appearance, he was sent back down to the minors.

Romulo Sanchez is a 26 year old pitcher who was a starter in the minors but has only been a reliever in the majors. He made his Yankee debut on May 9th, going 3.2 innings and giving up no runs on 1 hit with 3 strikeouts. Could he be the next Aceves? After that appearance, he was sent down to the minors in favor of Ivan Nova because the Yanks knew he wouldn't be availible for at least a couple of days.

Ivan Nova has been a starter in the minors, but he will be a long reliever for the Yanks right now. He has done very well at Triple-A so far, posting a 2.43 ERA. My full article about him is here: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/641085-the-future-of-the-yankees-ivan-nova. I also mentioned him here: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/636845-whats-javier-vazquez-trade-value. His major league debut will be his first game he appears in this year with the Yankees.

Kevin Russo is a 25 year old infielder who the Yanks brought up after Cano briefly was hurt. He has appeared in 2 games, going 0 for 2 with 2 putouts in the field. In the minors, he is a career .300 hitter including hitting .326 at Triple-A in '09, but he has not done much else offensively. His best homer season was '09 with 5, while his best SB season was '07 with 19. The Yankees are trying to turn him into a Jerry Hairston Jr. type player, as he has played RF, CF, SS, 2B, and 3B so far at Triple-A. He is a natural second baseman.

The next Yankee to be called up will be Juan Miranda. Miranda had a nice year at Triple-A in '09, hitting .290 with 30 doubles, 19 homers, 82 RBI, and a .369 OBP in 122 games. He was called up to the Yankees in September and did well, going 3 for 9 with 1 homer and 3 RBI in 8 games. He will be a pinch hitter on the bench for Girardi after he has called up. Since Thames has mostly been a starter since Granderson and Johnson got hurt, the Yanks have not had a good pinch-hitter availible besides when a starter was getting a day off. Miranda should be able to fix that. Miranda, if even plays in the field, is a first baseman.

Of these players, it seems that only Ivan Nova has a bright future ahead with the Yankees. Of course, by playing well, all these other guys could have a future with the team as well. I hope these guys can just do well enough for us to win while we are dealing with these injuries.

Why was Braden perfect?

How did A's pitcher Dallas Braden throw a perfect game against the Rays yesterday? Well, he gave up no runs, no hits, no walks, no errors, and he didn't hit any batters. But, why did was he perfect? Let's look at the stats.

Besides all those zeroes, Braden had some other key stats. He threw 109 pitches, 77 of them for strikes and 32 of them for balls. If you divide the strikes by the balls, it equals about 2.41. Let's put that into prespective. He had thrown 368 strikes in the starts before the perfect game and 163 balls in those starts. Divide the strikes by the balls in those starts, and it equals 2.26. So, his strikes/balls ratio was .15 better in the perfect game than in his other starts. That's a big difference.

Braden had 6 strikeouts. It doesn't look like anything special until you realize that he only had 6 strikeouts combined his last 3 starts. Braden had 21 strikeouts combined his previous 6 starts before the perfect game in 37 IP. Braden had a 5.1 K/9 going into his perfect game and then posted a 6.0 K/9 in his perfect game. That's a full strikeout more.

Braden gave up 7 ground ball outs and 14 fly ball outs during the perfect game. The 7 ground ball outs are his third-lowest of the year. His lowest were only 6 ground ball outs on April 6th against Seattle and April 22nd against the Yankees. He gave up only 1 run on April 6th and only 2 runs on April 22nd. Add in the perfect game, and Braden has been very successful when he hasn't give up many ground ball outs. In all his starts where he gave up 8 or more ground ball outs, Braden only has 1 start where he gave up 2 or less runs, April 16th against the Orioles. He has posted a 1.23 ERA in the 3 starts during which he got 7 or less groundouts, and a 5.04 ERA when he got 8 or more groundouts. In those 3 starts where Braden had 7 or less ground ball outs, of course he had quite a few flyouts, with 13 flyouts on April 6th, 14 on April 22nd, and 13 during the perfect game. But, he had 15 flyouts on May 3rd and gave up 3 runs, so whenever Braden gets a ton of flyouts, it isn't necessarily that great for him.

Dallas Braden obviously had everything working for him during the perfect game. As a pitcher, you have to be pretty lucky for opposing batters to have a .000 BA on balls in play, even in one game, but Braden was that lucky.

Screw 209, this is how we post in the 201!

What will the Yankees do with 3/4 of the Core 4 hurt?

Jorge Posada is hurt with a calf injury. Mariano Rivera has missed time with a side injury. Andy Pettitte will miss at least one start. What will the Yankees do without them?

Francisco Cervelli has done well so far filling in for Posada. He is hitting .371 with 0 homers, 6 RBI, and a .436 OBP. He has posted an 1.000 Fld% at catcher so far, but he has not thrown out any attempted basestealers yet. He is a fine backup, but not nearly as good as Posada. Posada has hit .290 so far with 5 homers, 12 RBI, and a .364 OBP. He has posted just a .984 Fld% at catcher, but he does have a 21% CS%. Posada hopefully will be back for at least one game in the Boston series, which starts tonight. The Yanks obviously aren't as good with Cervelli behind the plate, but they'll be okay.

Joba Chamberlain has done pretty well as the Yankee setup man and filled in very well for Rivera as the Yankee closer in the recent Orioles series. He's is 0-1 with a 2.92 ERA, 13 K's, and 2 saves in 13 relief appearances and 12.1 IP so far in '09. Both of his saves were in the Baltimore series. During his 2 saves, he pitched 2 innings, giving up only 1 hit and 1 walk, and strking out 3. Rivera should be back for tonight's game if necessary, but we know that Joba can fill in at closer. Granted, Rivera is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA with 9 K's and 7 saves in 10 relief apearances and 10 IP, but Joba could do fine as the closer if he's needed.

The situation with Pettitte is more complicated. Javier Vazquez isn't hurt, but he's performed so badly (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/636845-whats-javier-vazquez-trade-value) that his start will be skipped or at least delayed in addition to Pettitte. That makes 2 total spot-starts. Sergio Mitre, who is 0-0 with a 2.79 ERA in 5 relief appearances in '09, will make one of the spot starts. But, what about the other? Could it be Alfredo Aceves? Aceves is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in 9 relief appearances and 11 IP. Aceves did make 1 start in '09 and 4 starts in '08. Aceves hasn't even had a 3 inning appearance this year, so maybe he couldn't start a game. Vazquez might have to start a game after the Boston serie because of the Pettitte injury. Or, the Yankees could call up one of the prospects mentioned in the link above, Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister. Considering Nova is now 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA and McAllister, after a bad start, is now 0-2 with a 5.52 ERA, Nova would be much more likely to get the call. The Yankees would probably send down backup OF Greg Golson if they bring up Nova. Pettitte is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 6 starts, so it would be tough shoes for anyone to fill. Hopefully whoever spot-starts can give the Yankees 5 decent innings.

No team in the majors is as good when key players are injured. That's the case with the Yankees, with Posada (hopefully back very soon), Pettitte, and Curtis Granderson all injured right now (in additon to Park, but he's not a key player). The players filling in hopefully can do a decent job. The Yankees are still a very good team, and they will definitely compete. It will just be a bit harder.

(This is the post about the situation with Granderson injured: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/635445-with-cg-hurt-hows-the-yankee-of-situation-going-to-look)

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What's Javier Vazquez' trade value?

In this post I will deal with Vazquez' trade value and who would replace him if he is traded.

So, what's his trade value? Is it Melky Cabrera? Melky has a .213 BA and that's too high. Righties are hitting .318 against Vazquez and lefties are hitting .353. Maybe someone hitting .100 in the majors. No- make that Triple-A. And he has to be 28 or older. A 16-year old Dominican prospect? Well, at least the prospect has some potential. A career imnor leaguer? Maybe he would do well if given a chance in the majors. Does he even deserve a player-to-be-named? Only someone older than him. Cash? Maybe $1000.

The rumor is Vazquez to the Mets. So, what would they give the Yankees? Well, first of all, the Yanks would have to keep all of his 11.5 million dollar salary. So, who would it be? Probably a player-to-be-named-later. Let's look at the Mets' Triple-A franchise for someone hitting .100 and who is 28 or older years old. The closer player to fitting this bacteria is actually Omir Santos who is hitting .156 at Triple-A and is 29 years old. Santos was even drafted by the Yankees! But, Santos hit .260 with 7 homers for the Mets in '09, so maybe they wouldn't trade him. Still, the Mets do have Rod Barajas, Henry Blanco, and Josh Thole, so they could spare a catcher. Would the Yankees take Santos for Vazquez? No way. In all seriousness, the Mets would probably trade a decent prospect or two. Or, how about Daniel Murphy? Maybe the Yanks could use another bench player as least while Granderson is out. I'll say this- if the Mets want Vazquez, they better get him now. He won't be this bad soon. The Mets could get him for minimum value.

Now, let's say the Yanks trade Vazquez. Who's their 5th starter? I guess it's Sergio Mitre by default. He has gone 0-0 with a 1.23 ERA so far in 4 relief appearances as a long reliever. His best season as a starter was '07 with the Marlins when he went 5-8 with a 4.65 ERA. He has never had a good full season as a starter. Would he be better than Vazquez? I would doubt it. So, would the Yanks bring someone up from Triple-A? If so, the choice would be between Zach McAllister and Ivan Nova. McAllister has gone 0-1 at Triple-A with a 3.86 ERA. He has an 8.8 K/9 and a 2.6 BB/9. Nova has gone 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA at Scranton. He has an 8.4 K/9 and a 3.0 BB/9. McAllister is 22 years old and Nova is 23. Would the Yankees really want to bring up one of them to be the 5th starter right now? Well, if Vazquez is this bad and Mitre isn't good enough, the answer will be yes. But, the Yanks wouldn't prefer to do that.

Unless Vazquez continues to get killed in his next couple of starts, they shouldn't trade him. But, if a team (ex. the Mets) really wants Vazquez, they should trade for him right now.

AL East Review: April (and up until now in May)

1. Rays: The Rays have gotten off to a great start, posting the best record in the majors so far at 18-7. They have gone 6-1-1 in series. Their only series loss was against the Yankees. They lead the AL in runs despite being 6th in the AL in homers, 5th in BA, and 4th in OBP. They do rank second in stolen bases. The Rays have the best pitching in the AL so far, leading the league with a 3.01 ERA and giving up the fewest runs. They rank 4th in the AL in Fld%. Basically, the Rays are in first place in the AL East and have the best record in the majors because they have scored the most runs in the league and given up the fewest runs in the league.

2. Yankees: The Yankees have gotten off to a good start, going 16-8 and currently sitting in the AL Wild Card position. They have won 7 of 8 series so far, only losing a series to the Angels. The Yanks have hit well as they rank second in the AL in runs to the Rays, and second in BA. They lead the league in triples and OBP. The Yankees have the 4th best ERA in the AL at 3.63, and have given up the second-least runs in the AL, again only to the Rays. In addition, the Yanks have the second-best Fld% in the AL. The Yanks are in second place in the AL East and for the best record in the AL because they are second in runs scored and runs allowed only to the best team in the AL East and AL right now, the Rays.

3. Blue Jays: The Blue Jays are 5.5 games back of the Rays in the AL East and 4.0 games back of the Yankees in the AL Wild Card race with a 13-13 record. They have gone 4-3-1 in series. Despite leading the AL in doubles and homers, the Jays are just 5th in the AL in runs because they only rank 13th in the AL in BA. The Blue Jays' pitching has not done well as they have only the 9th best ERA in the AL and have given up only the 7th-least amount of runs. They have ranked 3rd in the AL in Fld%. The Blue Jays are a decent team, but they're pretty inconsistent.

4. Red Sox: The Red Sox are 7.0 games back of the Rays in the AL East and 5.5 games back of the Yankees in the AL Wild Card race with an 11-14 record. They have gone 4-4 in series. The Red Sox are 6th in the AL in runs and BA, so they're just an average hitting team. Boston's pitching has really let them down as they are 12th in the AL with a 4.78 ERA and they have allowed the most runs in the AL. Even their fielding, the part of the game that they tried to improve on has been a disaster as they rank 13th in the AL in Fld%. Boston has really had a terrible start.

5. Orioles: The Orioles are 11.0 games back of the Rays in the AL East and 9.5 games back of the Yankees in the AL Wild Card race with a 7-18 record, the worst in the majors. They have gone 1-7 in series, with their lone series win coming against the Red Sox. Their hitting has been very bad as they rank 12th in the AL in runs and 9th in BA. They rank dead last in stolen bases. Their pitching has been just as bad as they have only the 10th best ERA in the AL at 4.67, and they have also given up the 10th most runs in the league. They rank 7th in the AL in Fld%. They're just a bad team right now.

Projections based on current records: Rays: 117-45, Yankees: 108-54, Blue Jays= 81-81, Red Sox= 71-91, Orioles= 45-117

I bet none of these projections are even close to right.

My predictions: Rays 97-65, Yankees 100-62, Blue Jays 73-89, Red Sox 86-76, Orioles 70-92

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With Granderson hurt, how's the Yankee outfield situation going to look?

Curtis Granderson was placed on the 15-day DL today with a groin injury. What is the Yankee outfield going to look like without him?

RF: Nick Swisher has gotten off to a pretty good start, hitting .259 with 3 homers, 13 RBI, and a .348 OBP, but there's no reason to think that he won't be able to put up numbers similar to his '09 numbers (.249 BA, 29 homers, 82 RBI). He's currently on pace to hit 22 homers with 96 RBI. The Yankees would undoubtedly be happy with that. He has not made an error yet in right field, so he has an 1.000 Fld%. His primary backup in RF is Randy Winn, who has been a complete disaster so far. He has hit just .077 (1 hit in 13 at-bats) with 0 homers and 0 RBI. He also not made an error yet for an 1.000 Fld%. The Yankees have a pretty good situation in RF right now.

CF: Up until now, Curtis Granderson has been the starting centerfielder for the Yankees. He has hit .225 with 2 homers, 7 RBI, 4 SB, and a .310 OBP. He has also hasn't made an error yet. After a hot start the first series in Boston (.333 BA, 2 homers, 2 RBI), Granderson has been a disappointment, hitting .206 with 0 homers and 5 RBI. Yes I know he was in a slump, and it's only the beginning of May, but there was some reason to be worried. Hopefully Granderson will be better when he comes back. Brett Gardner will be the starting CF now. Gardner has gotten off to a good start, hitting .333 with 0 homers, 7 RBI, 10 SB, and a .397 OBP. He's on pace to steal 74 bases! Gardner has made 1 error in the outfield, so he has a .974 Fld%. That percentage should improve over time, as Gardner is a very good fielder. Winn can also play CF. With Granderson out and Gardner in, the Yanks have a good situation in CF.

LF: Gardner has been the primary starter in LF so far, but because he is moving to CF because of the Granderson injury, Marcus Thames will step in as the primary left fielder. He is hitting .550 with 1 homer, 2 RBI, and a .650 OBP, playing in only 9 games so far. All but 1 of his at-bats so far have been against lefties, so Winn should get at least some starts against righties. During his career, Thames has hit .266 versus lefties and .233 versus righties. Thames has not yet made an error in the outfield. It will be interesting to see how Thames does in a starting role.

The Yankee outfield is definitely worse without Granderson, but the current guys should be okay. But, If the Yanks need to call up another outfielder from the minors, it would probably be Greg Golson. Golson is hitting .275 with 2 homers, 7 RBI, 4 SB, and a .296 OBP at Triple-A. He has stolen at least 20 bases in the minors every season since '05. He has not yet made an error at CF or LF. He also played RF last year at Triple-A for the Rangers. I wrote about the details of his acquisition by the Yankees here: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/554465-yankees-rangers-trade. He isn't a very good player, but maybe he could hit better than the .077 that Winn is hitting right now. In conclusion, without Granderson the Yanks still have a pretty good outfield, and if necessary, they have another decent outfielder waiting at Triple-A.