Monday, May 17, 2010

Can Brett Gardner be as good as Jacoby Ellsbury?

Jacoby Ellsbury has been known as a great player. He is considered a very good player and a great base stealer. Can Brett Gardner be that good?

Jacoby Ellsbury was called up to the majors in 2007 and he made an immediate impact with the Red Sox. He hit .353 with 7 doubles, 1 triple, 3 homers, 18 RBI, 9 SB's, 0 CS, and a .394 OBP in 33 games. He posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in LF and CF. The next year in '08, Ellsbury had a good year, hitting .280 with 22 doubles, 7 triples, 9 homers, 47 RBI, 50 SB, 11 CS, 98 runs, and a .336 OBP. He posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% at all 3 outfield positions, primarily CF. He finished 3rd in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, only to Evan Longoria and Alexei Ramirez. In '09, Ellsbury improved even more, hitting .301 with 27 doubles, 10 triples, 8 homers, 60 RBI, 70 SB, 12 CS, 94 runs, and a .355 OBP. He posted a .994 Fld% in CF. He was a budding star. In '10, he hit .333 with 4 doubles, 0 triples, 0 homers, 1 RBI, 2 SB, 0 CS, and a .333 OBP in 6 games before getting hurt with a rib injury. He posted an 1.000 Fld% in 5 games in LF and 1 game in CF.

Brett Gardner was called up to the majors in '08 and made a decent impact, hitting .228 with 5 doubles, 2 triples, 0 homers, 16 RBI, 13 SB, 1 CS, and a .283 OBP in 42 games. He posted an 1.000 Fld% in CF and LF. In '09, Gardner hit .270 with 6 doubles, 6 triples, 3 homers, 23 RBI, 26 SB, 5 CS, and a .345 OBP in 108 games. Gardner won the Yankee CF job out of spring training over Melky Cabrera, but, he eventually lost his starting job. He also missed time with a broken thumb. But, so far in '10, Gardner has really had a breakout year. He is hitting .317 with 2 doubles, 1 triples, 2 homers, 12 RBI, 17 SB, 1 CS, 28 runs, and a .391 OBP in 35 games. He has posted a .975 Fld% in LF (1 error), and an 1.000 Fld% in CF. That error in LF will probably be his last or next-to-last error of the year and he will put up an Fld% around .995. If you project his hitting stats so far in '10 over the whole season, he would play in 153 games, hitting .317 with 9 doubles, 4 triples, 9 homers, 52 RBI, 74 SB, 4 CS, 122 runs, and a .391 OBP. That would be incredible and better than any season that Ellsbury has put up. The one strange thing about those numbers would be the only 9 doubles, but with 74 SB's, who needs doubles? I don't expect Gardner to be that good, but he definitely can put up a near-.300 BA with 55 stolen bases. The Yankees would still be very happy with that.

So, can Gardner put up Ellsbury-type numbers? Well, he has definitely has the ability to. If he plays anywhere near as good as he has so far in '10, he will match or at least come close to Ellsbury's career averages per full season (.291 BA, 60 SB). Can Gardner keep playing at the level he's playing at right now? That remains to be seen.

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