Thursday, May 13, 2010

Why has Hughes gotten off to such an incredible start?

Phil Hughes has been the best Yankee pitcher so far this year, going 5-0 so far with a 1.38 ERA, 39 K's, and just 14 walks in 6 starts and 39 IP. He has not given up more than 2 runs in a start all year. Why has he been so good?

Including his days as a reliever, righties have hit .203 against Hughes during his career and lefties have hit .264 against him. So far in '10, righties are hitting just .109 against Hughes, and lefties are hitting just .208. Hughes has not started off well in April and May during his career, as he has posted a 5.36 ERA in April and a 4.22 ERA in May. Hughes had an incredible April in '10, posting a 2.00 ERA, but so far in May, he has a 0.85 ERA. Hughes has always rose to the occasion with runners in scoring position, as opposing batters have hit just .224 against him in those situations, but in '10, he's buckled down even more, allowing just a .154 BA with RISP.

These career numbers for Hughes sound pretty good, right? In a tie game, batters hit .251 off Hughes, when there's a 1 run margin in the game, batters hit .233 off Hughes, with a 2 run margin, a .227 BA, and with a 3 run margin, a .231 BA. When he's ahead, batters have hit .198 off Hughes during his career, and when behind, runners have hit .254 off of him. In '10, when there has been a tie game, batters have hit .098 against Hughes, with a 1 run margin, .095, with a 2 run margin, .116, and with a 3 run margin, .130. You can even look at the OBP's for those situations (.229, .219, .216, and .229 respectively) and they're still better than his career BA against in those situations. That's incredible! Batters have hit .206 against Hughes when he's been ahead in '10, and .000 when he's behind. No, that's not a typo, .000. The Yanks have given Hughes good run support, so he's only had 4 batters bat against him in 2 different games when he was behind, and none of them have a hit, so that's also very good. (All the batting averages in this paragraph from '10 were his batting average against in those situation before tonight's game).

No one expects Hughes to keep up these kind of numbers (if he does, he'll win the AL Cy Young, no doubt about it), but Hughes is showing what the Yankees saw in him in before the 2004 MLB draft, and in the minor leagues. Hughes disappointed a lot of the Yankee people and a lot of fans when given a chance as a starter in '07, going 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA. People gave up on him. I gave up on him. I was mad that the Yanks didn't trade him in a possible Johan Santana deal. But, the Yankees knew what they were doing. The Yankees knew they had a future all-star in Hughes. That's what he's showing right now.

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