Where will Pujols sign? - odds for each team

One of the biggest things coming in the 2011 offseason is the impending free agency of Albert Pujols. He looks to command the biggest contract in MLB history, even corralling 30 million dollars a year. But who will pay him that kind of money? Let's go through the teams and see what the odds are for each team signing Pujols.

No chance

30. Rays

The Rays need help at first base, but considering they couldn't re-sign Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena, how in the world would they sign Pujols? Even if they have a small payroll and there's no chance they'll commit over half their 2012 salary to one player. There's a zero chance Pujols goes to the Rays.

Odds: 1 in 4,000,000,000

29. Royals

The Royals have a tiny payroll and Eric Hosmer as their first baseman of the future. The Royals don't need to make a big splash in free agency with the top prospects coming, and even if they did, they don't have anywhere near the money to sign Pujols. Pujols will not be going across the state of Missouri to Kansas City in 2012.

Odds: 1 in 1,000,000,000

28. Pirates

When was the last time the Pirates signed a big free agent? They just don't have the payroll. Lyle Overbay (arguably their biggest free agent signing of the 2010 offseason) isn't the long-term answer at first base, but the Pirates will have to look to the farm system or lower-tier free agents because Pujols will not be a Pirate (although I could see the headline now: "Pujols a Pirate").

Odds: 1 in 90,000,000

27. Blue Jays

The Jays couldn't even sign their own big impending free agent, Roy Halladay. How in the world would they sign Pujols?

Odds: 1 in 75,000,000

26. Diamondbacks

They haven't had a big signing in quite a while. Prospect Brandon Allen is the first baseman is the future, and he's certainly not a sure thing, and also the D-backs made a run at Paul Konerko, but they just don't have anywhere near enough money to make a run at Pujols.

Odds: 1 in 60,000,000

25. Brewers

If the Brewers had the money to sign Pujols, they would have extended Prince Fielder. Also, they just signed Ryan Braun to a huge deal.

Odds: 1 in 50,000,000

24. Padres

Ditto Brewers, but for Adrian Gonzalez. They haven't signed anybody to a big extension, but they have never had a lot of money to begin with.

Odds: 1 in 45,000,000

23. Reds

The Reds have a player they can build around in Joey Votto at first base, and they're a small-market team anyway.

Odds: 1 in 35,000,000

22. Indians

The Indians are playing out of their mind right now and you would think that they just need to continue adding fuel to the fire to keep contending. But, they have a good combination of veterans and young players right now, and they would certainly extend Grady Sizemore before signing Pujols. Not to mention that they don't have the money to sign Pujols anyway.

Odds: 1 in 20,000,000

21. Twins

The Twins have Justin Morneau at first base, and it's unlikely that they'll be able to afford another high-priced player.

Odds: 1 in 10,000,000

20. Giants

The Giants have Aubrey Huff and Brandon Belt, and we know they don't have 30 million dollars lying around.

Odds: 1 in 8,000,000

19. White Sox

The White Sox have some money, but they have both Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn. They're not signing Pujols.

Odds: 1 in 7,500,000

18. Mets

The Mets have had cash in the past, but we know that the Wilpons are cash-stricken and looking to add a minority owner. Even if they did somehow get the money, they'll be much more worried about signing Jose Reyes anyway. And of course, they have a promising player in Ike Davis at first base.

Odds: 1 in 5,000,000

17. Astros

They're getting a new owner, so you never no what their payroll would be, but they have Brett Wallace at first base, and the new owner wouldn't want to commit most of his payroll to Pujols.

Odds: 1 in 3,000,000

16. Athletics

The A's don't have the money, but I feel like Billy Beane could pull off a crazy sign-and-trade or something.

Odds: 1 in 2,500,000

15. Mariners

The Mariners have signed a couple of big free agents in recent years, but they don't appear to be contending anytime soon, and they have Justin Smoak, who should be manning first base for years to come.

Odds: 1 in 2,000,000

14. Marlins

The Marlins want to make a splash as they're moving into their new stadium, and they did spend a bit more money in the 2010 offseason, but 30 million dollars is a ton of money, and unless Pujols gives the Fish a "hometown discount" because they're the closest MLB team to the Dominican public, the Marlins won't be able to sign him.

Odds: 1 in 1,000,000

Probably not

13. Phillies

The entire baseball world is hoping that the Phillies don't scrape together enough pennies to sign Albert Pujols. I'm sure Ryan Howard is hoping too.

Odds: 1 in 10,000

12. Braves

The Braves have Freddie Freeman at first, and they don't have limitless funds, but they've made runs at big players in recent years.

Odds: 1 in 7,500

11. Tigers

Maybe the Tigers have money, but they have Miguel Cabrera, and they would have to catch Victor Martinez more often to fit in Pujols at DH. They'd also have to convince Pujols to play left field on an irregular basis (he did play most of 2003 in left field, but he hasn't played there since).

Odds: 1 in 5,000

10. Rockies

The Rockies have extended Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Is there any money left?

Odds: 1 in 3,500

9. Angels

The Angels made runs at Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford this past offseason, but failed to sign either of them, and they traded for the pricey Vernon Wells. The Angels don't have quite enough money to sign Pujols, and they also have two promising first baseman in Kendrys Morales and Mark Trumbo.

Odds: 1 in 2000

9. Red Sox

The Red Sox might have the money, but with Adrian Gonzalez at third, David Ortiz at DH, and even Carl Crawford in left field, the Red Sox would have to convince Pujols to play right field. Pujols did play 39 games there in 2001, but he has had some elbow problems since, and playing right field could kill his elbow and endanger his career. It's not impossible, but it's certainly a long-shot.

Odds: 1 in 1000

Don't completely count them out

7. Dodgers

They've spent quite a bit of money in the past. If they ever get that FOX TV deal signed, and their ownership situation resolved you never know what will happen, but the chances are certainly against Pujols being a Dodger.

Odds: 1 in 100

6. Orioles

The Orioles are starting to spend some money, and Derrek Lee was signed to just a one-year contract, but 30 million dollars is seemingly too much.

Odds: 1 in 75

5. Rangers

The Rangers have been spending money lately, but they already have a ton of money on the books and a logjam of players playing first base/DH including Mike Napoli and Michael Young. They theoretically could sign Pujols, but they probably will decide not to.

Odds: 1 in 60

4. Nationals

The Nats signed Jason Werth this past offseason and Adam LaRoche is coming off the books after the season, so you never know for sure.

Odds: 1 in 40

3. Yankees

You may think I'm crazy, but Pujols going to the Yankees is a semi-realistic possibility. It would be the same of situation as the Red Sox above with Mark Teixeira at first base, but the Yankees would certainly move Brett Gardner to give Pujols time in left field, and if they could sign Pujols, they would certainly be willing to trade Jesus Montero to give him time at DH as well.

Odds: 1 in 20

Contenders

2. Cubs

The Cubs have new owners, the Ricketts, and are dying to make Pujols a part of their team. They might actually be able to offer Pujols a 10 year, 300 million dollar contract. But would Pujols leave St. Louis?

Odds: 2 in 5

1. Cardinals

The Cardinals have been Pujols' team the past 11 years. They won a championship with him and have built a solid team around him. Why should he leave? But will the Cardinals offer him the 30 million a year?

Odds: 12 in 25

Results

Cardinals- 48% chance of re-signing Pujols

Cubs- 40% chance of signing Pujols

Yankees- 5% chance of signing Pujols

Nationals- 2.5% chance of signing Pujols

Rangers- 1.7% chance of signing Pujols

The field- 2.7% chance of signing Pujols

It's Cubs-Cardinals for the rights to have Pujols with the Yankees, Nationals, and Rangers having outside chances and every other team barely being involved if part of the picture at all. This should be interesting.

Can Montero play left field?

Yankees top prospect Jesus Montero has been dealing with a bit of a groin problem, but it's hard not to like his current stats at Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He's hitting .375 with 4 doubles, a homer, 4 RBI, a .484 SLG, and amazingly a .369 OBP (no walks, out trying to stretch once) in 15 games. He's going to need to get back into games, get his OBP up, and show some more power, but we know he's capable of doing all of those. How long can the Yankees keep this guy in the minors? But where could they play him? Russell Martin is destroying the AL to the tune of a .290/.364/.594 line. Jorge Posada at DH has just a .131/.231/.391 line, but he has 6 home runs, and the Yankees aren't going to easily bench a player who's making 13.1 million dollars this season. 1st base isn't an option with Mark Teixeira there, so all the regular positions that catchers play are out of the question. But, if Montero is still hitting .370 in a month, how could the Yankees possibly keep him in the minors? What could the Yankees do?

Well, you have to at least give a look to the left field and right field positions. Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher both had nice games Thursday, but they're still hitting .169/.229/.385 and .237/.351/.303 respectively. Gardner has 7 extra-base hits, 3 homers, and driven in 6 runs, but he's been successful on just 4 of 7 stolen base attempts, while Swisher has just 3 extra base hits, 1 homer, although he has driven in 12 runs. Couldn't Montero be better than either of them right now? Who in the world wouldn't think that Montero could at least put up at least a .275/.340/.400 line in the majors right now? Gardner and Swisher are nice players, but how could you leave one of the best hitters in professional baseball stranded at Triple-A? Brian Cashman could probably trade either Gardner or Swisher within a couple of days. Why won't he?

First of all, there's the obvious question of defense. Gardner is the best defensive left fielder in baseball, and replacing him with Montero would be an enormous defensive downgrade. Swisher has worked hard defensively, and he had a positive UZR in 2010 (and so far in 2011). Even replacing Swisher with Montero would be a big downgrade defensively. Or would it? Earlier in Yankee history, the Yankees had another case where they had two good catchers. From the mid-1950's to the mid-1960's, the Yankees had both Yogi Berra and Elston Howard. So what did they do? They had both Berra and Howard play some left field and right field. Berra played 260 career games in the outfield while Howard played 265. And while Berra and Howard weren't Gold Glove-caliber defensively, they certainly were good enough. Berra posted a .972 Fld% and a 2.08 RF/9 in 149 career games in left field. The league averages were a .973 Fld% and a 2.03 RF/9. He certainly was an average fielder in left. In 166 games in right, Berra wasn't as good, posting just a .966 Fld% and a 1.65 RF/9 compared to the league averages of .974 and 1.97, but even in that case, he survived defensively. Howard was pretty solid in 228 games in left, posting a .982 Fld% and a 1.98 RF/9 compared to the league averages of .979 and 2.13. (Keep in mind that Berra and Howard did not play the outfield in all the same seasons.) Howard played just 42 games in right, but he actually was a plus defender, posting a .987 Fld% and a 2.33 RF/9 compared to the league average compared to the league averages of .979 and 1.99. Could Montero put up similar numbers?

Even if he could, Montero would have to start learning the new position, and that could take away from his focus on hitting, which wouldn't be good for him in the long run. Also, Gardner and Swisher play important roles for the Yankees. Gardner is the Yankees' only legitimate 30-stolen base threat (although if he gets on base, he could steal 50), and Swisher is great in the clubhouse, so the Yankees shouldn't panic and hinder Montero's development. Unless Posada or Martin gets hurt, the Yankees should allow Montero to keep working defensively at catcher in Triple-A until September, when he'll get his first cup of coffee in the big leagues. Then, next year, he'll be ready to take over at DH and backup catcher when Posada retires and use his bat to the best of his ability. Yankee fans, don't panic about the struggles of Gardner and Swisher.

2011 MLB Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

Time for the annual MLB preview! Let's start in the NL West with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

If you're new to the drill, I'm going to look at each team position by position, going through the relevant stats, and then give an overview that team and state my prediction.

Catcher:

After a nice 2009 season, Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero was a disappointment offensively in '10, but mostly because he missed two months early in the season with a knee injury. He hit .266 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 43 RBI, and .332 OBP in 85 games after hitting .294 with 30 doubles, 16 homers, 59 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 128 games in '09. But, defensively, Montero is outstanding. He posted a .996 Fld% and a 31% CS% with just 6 passed balls. If Montero can rebound offensively, that would be great for Arizona, but if he can just stay healthy, hit around .270, and hit 12 or 13 homers, he would still be a valuable commodity for them. Backup Henry Blanco has just a .227 career BA, but he posted a .997 Fld% and a 50% CS% in '10 for the Mets. He's a fine backup. The D-backs have a great situation defensively at catcher, and they'll be happy if Montero can just stay healthy and hit a few homers, even if he doesn't rebound to his '09 levels.

First base:

Rookie 1st baseman Brandon Allen is poised to take over the first base job for the D-backs. Allen had cups of coffee in the majors in 2009 and 2010, hitting .221 with 5 homers and 20 RBI in 54 combined games. He posted a .993 Fld% at first base and a 1.000 Fld% in left field. At Triple-A in '10, he hit just .261, but with 18 doubles, 25 homers, 86 RBI, 14 stolen bases, and a .405 OBP in 107 games. He posted a .990 Fld% in 73 games at first base and a .981 Fld% in 33 games in left field. Allen won't be a great defensive first baseman, but the D-backs obviously hope he can hit well at the major league level. He did hit .267 in the majors in '10 compared to .202 in '09, so that's a good sign. They're not expecting him to completely replace Adam LaRoche, but they do want Allen to hit around .260 with power, maybe 18 or 19 home runs, and survive defensively. His backup at first base and possible starter if he fails will be ex-Yankee Juan Miranda. Miranda had a .253 BA with 4 homers, 14 RBI, and a .330 OBP in 46 games with the Yankees over the past three seasons. He didn't make any errors at first base. Miranda was rock-solid the past three seasons stuck behind Jason Giambi and Mark Teixeira at Triple-A, hitting .287 with 15 homers and 59 RBI per season and posting a .374 OBP. Again, keep in mind that he missed some time over those seasons because he was in the majors because of an injury. He has a .991 career Fld% at first base in the minors. Miranda will be 28 in late April, so even if he wins the starting job, he'll be just a stop-gap. The D-backs are certainly hoping that Allen can play well enough in spring training to win the starting job and play well enough during the season to keep it, but if not, they have a capable backup in Miranda.

Second base:

After a terrible '09 season with Atlanta in which he hit just .224, Kelly Johnson proved to be a great signing for the D-backs following the season. He had a breakout season in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doubles, 26 homers, 71 RBI, 5 triples, 93 runs, 13 stolen bases, and a .370 OBP in 154 games. His BA, homers, RBI, runs, stolen bases, and games played numbers in '10 were all career highs. He also was great defensively, posting an above-average .988 Fld%. Johnson is a very good player. His backups at second base with be middle-infield backups Ryan Roberts and Tony Abreu. Roberts has a .992 career Fld% at second base, and he can hit a little bit too. He hit just .197 in '10, but he hit .279 with 7 homers and 25 RBI in '09. Abreu is basically the 25th-man on the roster. He has a .251 career BA, but just a .279 OBP. He plays second, third, and short, but he's a disaster defensively at all three positions. The D-backs have a nice situation at second, having a really good player in Johnson as the starter and nice defensive depth behind him in Roberts.

Third base:

The D-backs currently have Melvin Mora penciled in as their starting third baseman. He will turn 39 in a couple of weeks. Not good. In their defense, he did have a decent season with the Rockies in '10, hitting .285 with 12 doubles, 7 homers, 45 RBI, 5 triples, and a .358 OBP in 113 games. He even posted a slightly-above average .957 Fld% at third base, but with Derek Jeter-esque range acording to Bill James' range factor per 9 innings and range factor per game stats. I want to say that he's a stop-gap for some good prospect, but their only decent third base prospect who's anywhere near the majors, Ryan Wheeler, played just 19 games at Double-A in '10 after playing in 113 at High-A. He did do well offensively, (.280, 28 doubles, 12 homers, 67 RBI, .337 OBP) and survive defensively (.949 Fld%), but he's a ways away. For now, Mora will be backed up by Geoff Blum, who hit .267 with the Astros in '10 with a significantly above-average .976 Fld% at third base. But, he'll turn 38 in April. The D-backs are very old at third base, and with no help coming in the near future, they'll just have to hope that Mora and Blum hold up.

Shortstop:

The D-backs recently signed their arbitration-eligible shortstop Stephen Drew to a two year, 13.75 million dollar deal. Good for them; he's a good all-around player. Drew isn't quite a five-tool player, but he does a little bit of everything. He's a decent hitter for average (.278 in '10), decent hitter for power (33 doubles, 15 homers, 61 RBI), he has nice speed (10 stolen bases and 12 triples), he's a good fielder (a .984 Fld%, 3rd in the NL and 3rd in the NL in putouts by a SS), and he has a nice arm (2nd in the NL in assists by a SS). He also had 83 runs, which doesn't really fit under any category (if you want to say it's part of speed, keep in mind that Mark Teixeira led the AL in runs in '10). His backups will be Roberts and Abreu. Good luck with that. Roberts has never played shortstop in the majors and has just a .959 career Fld% there in the minors. Stephen Drew is a very good shortstop for the D-backs, but there isn't much depth behind him.

Left Field:

Newly signed outfielder Xavier Nady is currently lined up as the D-backs' starting left fielder, although he could wind up playing first base if both Allen and Miranda don't play well in spring training. In a backup role for the Cubs, Nady hit .256 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 33 RBI, and just a .306 OBP in 119 games (347 AB's). Nady missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury one year after having a career year in '08, hitting .297 with 37 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 148 games between the Pirates and Yankees. From '05 to '08, Nady hit .284 with an average of 26 doubles, 19 homers, 69 RBI, and a .339 OBP per season. The D-backs are hoping that with another starting role, Nady will be able to get back to somewhere near those numbers. Defensively, Nady posted just a .970 Fld% in the outfield in '10, and has just a .966 career Fld% in left field. He better Nady's backups will be Gerardo Parra and Cole Gillespie. Parra was Arizona's primary left fielder in '10 as well as '09, but his performance in '10 didn't warrant him being the starter again. Parra was decent in '09, hitting .290 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 60 RBI, 8 triples, 5 stolen bases (7 CS), and a .324 OBP in 124 games. He posted a below-average .978 Fld% in LF. That was good enough. His .261 BA and .308 OBP in '10 were certainly not. He set career highs in just two stats: games played (133) and HBP's (2). He hit 19 doubles, 3 homers, 30 RBI, and 6 triples. He did slightly improve his Fld% in LF to .981. Good move by the D-backs to have the guts to replace a young player with a veteran even though Parra wasn't that bad. Gillespie hit .231 with 8 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .283 OBP in 45 games. He posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF and RF, but just a .969 Fld% in LF, although he did make just 1 error. The D-backs need Xavier Nady to get back to his previous numbers when he was a starting outfielder for the Padres, Mets, Pirates, and Yankees, but they do have decent depth behind him.

Centerfield:

In centerfield, the D-backs have a very good four-tool player in Chris Young. Young hit just .257 in '10, but with 33 doubles, 27 homers, 91 RBI, 94 runs, 28 stolen bases, and a .341 OBP in 156 games. Defensively, he showcased his arm with 10 outfield assists including 6 double plays, although his great arm did lead to just a .984 Fld%. Young's low batting averages got him in trouble in '10, when he hit just .212 with 15 homers and just 42 RBI. Even though Young is a four-tool player, he better put up a decent batting average in order to take advantage of those tools (if you don't hit, you won't hit for power and you won't be able to steal bases, and you'll be benched so you won't be able to take advantage of your defensive tools). Parra will be his backup. If Young can hit for just a decent average, centerfield will be one of the strongest positions for Arizona.

Right field:

Amid all the trade rumors, I'm sure at least a few people forgot that D-backs RF Justin Upton had an off year. He hit .273 with 27 doubles, 17 homers, 69 RBI, 18 SB, and a .356 OBP in 133 games. He hit .300 with 26 homers, 86 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .366 OBP in '09. As opposed to his offensive regression from '09 to '10, Upton was much better defensively, posting a .985 Fld% in '10 compared to .961 although he had just 1 assist compared to 4. Bill James' defensive metrics showed that Upton displayed great range. He had an off-year, but he's still a very good player. He'll be backed up by Parra and Gillespie. Upton is a great five-tool talent and the D-backs hope he can get back to using all five of those tools in '10.

Starting Rotation:
The D-backs' de facto ace is 26 year old right-hander and ex-Yankee Ian Kennedy. In his first full year as a starter, Kennedy did pretty well, going just 9-10, but with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's compared to just 70 walks in 32 starts and 194 IP. He allowed just 163 hits for a 7.6 H/9 ratio, good for 9th-best in the NL. Kennedy certainly had his problems, though. He allowed 26 home runs, 7th in the NL, he hit 10 batters, 3rd in the league, and he threw 16 wild pitches, good for most in the league. Still, Kennedy was pretty unhittable, although he was certainly helped by a .261 BA on balls in play (BAbip; league average is around .300). Kennedy also out-hit one of Arizona's top power hitters this past season (Mark Reynolds, who was traded to Baltimore), hitting .204 with 2 RBI and a .290 OBP. Baseball-Reference gave him a 0.4 WAR (wins above replacement) hitting, and add that onto his 2.7 WAR pitching WAR, and he had a nice 3.1 WAR season. Kennedy was a bit lucky in '10 and certainly has some things to work on, but the D-backs hope his return to 'average' luck in '10 will be canceled out by his maturity as a pitcher.

The D-backs have to hope that they'll get some better production out of Joe Saunders, acquired in the Dan Haren trade. Saunders, a right-hander who will turn 30 in June, went just 9-17 between the LA Angels (of Anaheim) and the D-backs with a 4.47 ERA, 114 K's, and 64 walks in 33 starts and amazingly, 203.1 IP, the first time he has ever gone over 200 innings in a season. He went 3-7 with a 4.25 ERA for the D-backs. Saunders' main problem in '10 was hits allowed: he allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings. But, that goes right along with his 9.7 career H/9. Saunders is a two-time 16 game winner (17 in '08 and 16 in '09), although his career ERA is just 4.29 and he has that bad H/9. In terms of hitting, there's not much to talk about. He hit just .087 with an RBI for the D-backs, although he did somehow steal a base. The D-backs just hope that Saunders can somehow maintain that 4.25 ERA he had in his 13 starts for them after they acquired him.

The Diamondbacks found lighting in a bottle with 23 year old right-hander Daniel Hudson in '10 (he will turn 24 in March). Hudson went 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA in 3 starts for the White Sox, but after the D-backs acquired him in the Edwin Jackson trade, he went 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA, 70 K's and just 16 walks in 11 starts and 79.2 IP. He allowed just 51 hits, good for a staggering 5.8 H/9. If Kennedy was unhittable, this guy was unstoppable. But, there are two factors that discourage me from thinking that Hudson is a ridiculous pitcher who will be dominating hitters for years to come: 1) he managed a 3.47 ERA in 93.1 Triple-A innings, which is OK, not great (although he did strike out 108 batters); and 2) he allowed just a .243 BAbip. How lucky is Hudson? Well besides that .243 BAbip, he also had 6 RBI despite just 4 hits (.148 BA). There's almost no way Hudson will manage another BAbip under .250, so the D-backs should just be hoping for that 3.47 ERA he posted at Triple-A. If Hudson puts that up, he might be the ace or number two starter on this team, but I'm placing him 3rd behind Kennedy and Saunders because I'm just really scared of what could happen if he allows a league average .300 BAbip.

There are three pitchers in contention for the last two spots in the Arizona rotation: Barry Enright, Zach Duke, and the recently acquired Armanda Galarraga. Enright, who will turn 25 in March went 6-7 with a 3.91 ERA, 49 K's, and 29 BB in 17 starts and 99 IP for the D-backs in '10. But, you have to be very worried about his 4.5 K/9 and terrible 1.8 HR/9 ratios. He also allowed just a .254 BAbip. But, he did have a 7.3 K/9 in the minors including an 8.9 K/9 at Double-A in '10. Enright is far from a sure thing, but you would think he could manage a decent ERA, at least under 4.50, if he can get that strikeout rate up to somewhere near his minor league levels. Hitting-wise, Enright was pretty incredible, hitting .252 with 6 RBI. While Enright was lucky, ex-Pirate Zack Duke was the exact opposite. Duke, 28 in April, went just 8-15 with a horrendous 5.72 ERA, 96 K's, and 51 walks in 29 starts, but just 159 IP. He allowed 212 hits, 12 per 9 innings, and 25 homers, 1.4 per 9, which isn't so bad unless you consider that Duke had the 3rd-best HR/9 ratio in the NL a few years ago. But, Duke is not as bad as the stats say he is. He had a crazy .343 BAbip. If that went down .300, Duke would have had at least a decent year. Duke posted a 4.95 FIP (fielding-independent pitching), which isn't great, or even good, but it's a heck of a lot better than his 5.72 ERA. Duke is not that bad of a pitcher. Duke hit just .063 with no RBI in '10, although he did have 8 sac bunts. There's almost no way Duke would be a complete disaster with an ERA over 5.20 as the D-backs' 5th starter. Galarraga, who recently turned 30, is what he is. He had his one moment in the limelight when Jim Joyce ruined his perfect game, but he went just 4-9 with a 4.49 ERA, just 74 strikeouts, and 51 walks in 24 starts, an RA (relief appearance), and 144.1 IP. He allowed 21 homers, a 1.3 HR/9, and 143 hits, an 8.9 H/9 ratio. He's an OK pitcher. He doesn't strike enough batters out to allow over 3 walks per 9 innings and nearly a hit per inning. At his best, Galarraga went 13-7 with a 3.78 ERA, 126 K's, and 61 walks in 28 starts, 2 RA's (relief appearances), and 178.2 IP. At his worst in '09, he went 6-10 with a 5.64 ERA, 95 K's, and 67 walks in 25 starts, 4 RA's, and 143.2 IP. Factoring the switch to the NL, Galarraga will probably post something like a 4.30 ERA. That's OK, but if Enright gets straightened out or Duke returns to his '09 form (4.06 ERA in 213 IP), they would certainly be better. We'll see what happens in spring training, but I think Enright and Duke should be the 4th and 5th starters, at least to begin the year, with Galarraga, who does have some relief experience, serving as a long reliever.

Bullpen:
Righty Juan Gutierrez had a really bad season, going 0-6 with a 5.08 ERA, 47 K's, 23 walks, 8 holds, and 15 saves in 58 RA's and 56.2 IP. Good thing he won't have to close again... at least you would think so. He posted a 6.87 ERA before previous closer Chad Qualls was traded compared to a 1.45 ERA after. What? That has to be an encouraging sign for the D-backs. He adjusted and had great success in his new role. Hopefully he can use that new experience of success in a late inning role to help him spring forward to a great 2011. Aaron Heilman went 5-8 with a 4.50 ERA, 55 K's, 26 walks, 12 holds, and 6 saves in 70 RA's and 72 IP. There has to be at least some worry that Heilman will collapse at age 32 after 5 straight seasons with over 70 appearances. Sam Demel, 25, went 2-1 with a 5.35 ERA, 33 K's, 12 walks, 4 holds, and 2 saves (0 blown saves) in 37 RA's and 37 IP. His main problem was that he allowed more than a hit per inning, although he did have a .325 BAbip. He posted an 8.0 K/9 and a great 2.9 BB/9, although he did allow 5 homers, 1.2 per 9. He could be a decent reliever in '11 for the D-backs if he just has 'average' luck. 27 year old right-hander Esmerling Vazquez had a just plain terrible season in '10. He appeared in 57 games, going 1-6 with a 5.20 ERA, 55 K's, 38 BB, and 6 holds in 53.2 IP. He simply walked too many batters, 6.4 per 9. That's a bit of a problem. He did post a 4.42 ERA in 53 RA's in '09, so the D-backs have to be optimistic that Vazquez wasn't as bad as his 2010 stats say he is. In exchange for Mark Reynolds, the D-backs acquired right-handers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio from the Orioles. Hernandez, who wil turn 26 in May, went 8-8 with a 4.31 ERA, 72 K's, 42 walks, 2 holds, and 2 saves in 33 RA, 8 starts, and 79.1 IP. Those are decent stats. But, as a reliever, he was pretty solid, going 7-3 with a 3.16 ERA, and 45 K's compared to just 13 walks. Hernandez did pitch in mostly low leverage situations (hence the 2 holds, and not more), but he still had a nice season as a reliever and he's moving from the AL East to the NL West, so he could be a very effective reliever for the Diamondbacks. Mickolio, who will turn 27 in May, is a different story. He posted a 7.36 ERA in 3 RA's in '10. He even posted a 6.37 ERA in 30 appearances at Triple-A in '10! That's not good. Mickolio did post a 3.50 ERA in 35 Triple-A appearances in '09 and a 1.80 ERA in 17 appearances there in '08. He also posted a 2.63 ERA with 2 holds in 11 RA's for the Orioles in '09. Mickolio can't be that bad of a reliever. His ML numbers in '10 were such a small sample size, and he had just had a terrible off-year at Triple-A. I would expect something like his 4.32 career ERA in the majors. You have to notice that every reliever besides Hernandez posted an ERA 4.50 or higher in '10. You have to be worried about that.

Closer:

J.J. Putz is lined up to close for the D-backs in '11. Putz had an outstanding season as the setup man for the White Sox, going 7-5 with a 2.83 ERA, 65 strikeouts, just 15 walks, 14 holds, and 3 saves in 60 RA's and 54 IP. His last full season as a closer was 2007, when he went 6-1 with a 1.38 ERA, 82 K's, just 13 walks, and 40 saves in 68 RA's and 71.2 IP. It's a bad sign that he hasn't been a full-time closer since '07, but I think he'll be OK because of his great '10, and because at least he does have experience in the role. Plus, he's moving to the NL West. He should be fine at closer for the D-backs, saving 35 or 40 games with an ERA 2.90 or less.

Overview:

The D-backs have a decent offense, but they'll need a big bounce-back year from Justin Upton and continued success from Chris Young. The D-backs are decent defensively, but they have potential problems at the corner infield spots. The rotation is slightly below-average at best, and the bullpen is terrible, even though Putz will probably be great. The D-backs need everything to go right to contend in '11.

2010 record: 65-97, 5th in the NL West

Prediction: 70- 92, 5th in the NL West

The D-backs will contend if... Upton and Young have breakout seasons, Brandon Allen is a contender for Rookie of the Year, Mora somehow holds down 3rd base, Ian Kennedy keeps improving, Daniel Hudson still posts an ERA under 3.00, the 4th and 5th starters are surprises in a good way, and the bullpen doesn't completely collapse like it did in 2010.

Gil Meche's sudden retirement shows that pitch counts do matter

For those of you who think that pitch counts are a complete joke, you're wrong.

On June 16th, 2009, Gil Meche had one of the best starts of his career. Through 8 innings, he had allowed no runs, and just 4 hits while striking out 5 and walking just one. He had thrown 110 pitches. Instead of bringing in a reliever to pitch the 9th in a 5-0 game, Royals manager Trey Hillman kept Meche in their. Meche retired the side 1-2-3 to complete his complete-game shutout, but he used 22 pitches to do so, finishing with 132 pitches on the day.

Gil Meche has retired from baseball at the age of 32. He said that he retired because of a shoulder injury that would have required surgery. After that fateful day, June 16th, 2009, Meche went just 2-10 with a 6.86 ERA. He was never the same after throwing 132 pitches in that game.

All the young pitchers are protected. They have innings limits and pitch count limits. Maybe so should the veterans too, to some extent.

Not all pitchers are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, or Cliff Lee. A lot of pitchers are much more fragile. The Mariners and the Royals weren't careful at all with Meche.

Two years after making his major league debut with the Mariners in 1999, Meche didn't appear in any major league games in 2001 and 2002 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. In 2003, he pitched 186.1 innings (going 15-3 with a 4.59 ERA), but he posted just a 6.19 ERA after June 20th. He had surpassed his career high for innings in the majors (he had thrown 175.2 innings between the majors and minors in 1999) in that June 20th start which lowered his ERA to 2.89. Fine, Meche only surpassed his career high for innings by just 9.2 IP, but remember that he was just coming off of Tommy John surgery. I'm not saying that the Mariners should have limited him so much after already missing two years to the surgery, but they shouldn't have let him surpass his career high for innings pitched.

In 2004, the Mariners seemingly made an adjustment for Meche, allowing him to throw just 127.2 major league innings, but don't be fooled- he pitched 57 innings at Triple-A as well. (He actually posted a higher ERA, 5.05, at Triple-A than in the majors, 5.01.) Finally in 2005, he was limited to just 143.1 IP, but he still posted a 5.09 ERA. Despite his second-straight year with an ERA over 5.00, the Mariners stuck with him in the last year under their control in '06, allowing him to throw a career high 186.2 innings, and he did pretty well, going 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA.

After the '06 season, the Royals made the stupid decision of signing Meche to a 5 year, 55 million dollar contract. But, after the first year of the contract, the Royals had appeared to make at least a decent deal. Meche had his best season, throwing a career-high 216 innings and going just 9-13 for the hapless Royals, but posting a 3.67 ERA, tying his career high for strikeouts (156), and walking just 62 batters for a great ratio of just 2.6 per 9 innings (he had a 4.0 career BB/9 ratio before '07). In '08, Meche did something few players can do: win 14 games on the Royals. He was the first one to win 14 games on the Royals since Paul Byrd in 2002. (Obviously Zach Greinke did it in his Cy Young season in '09 as well.) Meche went 14-11 with a 3.98 ERA and a career-high 183 K's in 34 starts and 210.1 IP.

Through June 17th, 2009, Meche seemed to be on pace for his best season. Through 14 starts he had a 3.31 ERA and 67 strikeouts compared to 31 walks in 84.1 IP. But, after his 132-pitch complete game shutout on June 16th, Meche went just 2-5 with an 8.46 ERA. A good pitcher never just collapses like that at age 30. It was the 132 pitches.

In 2010, Meche went just 0-5 with a 5.69 ERA and just 41 strikeouts versus 38 walks in 9 starts, 11 relief appearances, and 61.2 IP. He missed from May 25th to September 1st with his shoulder injury. His career was over at age 32 (his 32nd birthday was September 8th).

What's the message here? Two things: 1) you have to be somewhat careful with any pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery, and 2) no pitcher should be kept in for over 130 pitches except when ABSOLUTELY necessary. I'm not saying that pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery shouldn't throw 200 innings, but you have to let him work back up to a regular big league workload. Meche's career was sidetracked because the Mariners let him throw 186.1 innings right after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Then, after the Royals acquired him, they let him throw 216 innings, a jump of 30 innings from '06 to '07 and 50 IP over his average the previous two years. He was still 28 when the Royals got him, and even though they signed him to a big contract to be their ace, the Royals had to limit him somewhat to make sure that he could hold up all 5 years and still be effective. They didn't limit him at all, and not only was he not durable the past two years, but he couldn't even last the entirety of his contract. If I was the Royals I would have limited him to 200 innings in '07 and then let him pitch much a few more that that in '08 and around the same the rest of his deal. Again, they didn't and it cost them.

Let's go back to the trio above: Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Cliff Lee. We know all of them as innings eaters who often finish games. Halladay has thrown 130 or pitches in a game three times, one time each of the past three seasons. CC has throw over 130 pitches in a game just once in his career, during his wild card chase with the Brewers in '08. Cliff Lee has NEVER thrown 130 or more pitches in a game. Even for veterans, you can't throw pitch counts completely out the window. In non-must-win games, no pitcher should throw 130 or more pitches in a game, even if they're throwing a no-hitter (I'm talking to you, D-backs, about Edwin Jackson who you let throw a crazy 149 pitches in his 8-walk no-hitter).

We know that there are many young pitchers right now who could become the next Gil Meche by being overworked, especially after Tommy John surgery, and being forced to retire early. Teams, don't let that happen.

What does the Soriano signing mean for Joba?

As soon as the Yankees signed ex-Rays closer to a three year deal (with two out-clauses), everybody started asking about Joba Chamberlain. Should they trade him? Should they made him a starter again? Let's figure out what the Yankees should do with Joba (not that they necessarily will do what I say) by looking at his stats and the Yankee bullpen as a whole.

Contrary to popular belief, Joba didn't have terrible season in '10. He went 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA, and 77 K's in 73 relief appearances in 71.2 IP. He recorded 25 holds and 3 saves. Joba didn't do anything that typical bad relievers do. He allowed just 6 homers, 0.8 per 9 innings, and walked 22, 2.8 per 9. His strikeout to walk ratio was a staggering 3.50! But he allowed 71 hits, 8.9 per 9. You just can't allow that many hits as a reliever. Still, that's his only real problem. If he reverses that trend, he will be an effective reliever.

Let's look at the entire Yankee bullpen to see if Joba is still needed in the bullpen. Mariano Rivera (3-3, 1.80 ERA, 33 saves in '10) is as good as ever. Soriano is outstanding as well (3-2, 1.73, 45 saves, and 11-20, 2.73, 88 saves in his career). Robertson (4-5, 3.82, 14 holds) was outstanding from June on (4-3, 2.58, 8 holds). Logan (2-0, 2.93, 13 holds) was solid as a lefty specialist. So was Pedro Feliciano (3-6, 3.30, 23 holds) for the Mets. Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33, 1 hold) even had his share of success. Those are the guys who will for sure be in the Yankee bullpen. Then, you can add in Damaso Marte (0-0, 4.08, 9 holds) when he comes back from a shoulder injury. Also, the Yankees signed Mark Prior (hey, you never know) who will probably be a reliever, Neal Cotts (0-2, 4.29, 10 holds in '08 before struggling to a 7.36 ERA in '09 in 19 games and undergoing Tommy John surgery and suffering a hip injury, causing him to miss all of '10), and Brian Schlitter (0-1, 12.38 in 7 big league appearances, but 2-1, 3.15, 13 saves at Triple-A). All three are ex-Cubs (thank you Larry Rothschild). The Yankees have also acquired or called up (in no particular order) Ryan Pope (4-6, 4.20, 17 saves at Double-A), Andy Sisco (4-4, 4.32 at Double-A), Brian Anderson (a converted outfielder who went 0-0 2.08 in the minor in '10, including a 2.57 ERA at Triple-A), Buddy Carlyle (2-0, 3.59, somehow 0 holds in '08, but posted an 8.86 ERA in '09 and went to Japan for '10), Daniel Turpen (7-6, 4.30, 4 saves), and lefty Robert Fish (2-0, 1.12 at High-A, but then a scary 8.93 ERA at Double-A). The Yankees have a lot of bullpen candidates. Do they need Joba? Why couldn't a healthy Prior or Pope put up a 4.40 ERA for the Yankees?

So now it may be down to trading Joba are making him a starter (again). How has Joba done as a starter? He's 12-7 with a 4.18 ERA and 206 K's in 43 career starts and 221.2 IP. He went 9-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 133 K's in 31 starts in the Yankees' championship season of '09. That's certainly not great, but it could be an upgrade over the other 5th starter candidates (see this post: Are the Yankees doomed without Pettitte?).

So, what should the Yankees do with Joba? What I would do is stretch out Joba over spring training and give him a chance to win the 5th starter job. If he does win the job and is at least somewhat successful, then great. If not, some team will want to trade for him.

Will Jeremy Bonderman make an impact for any MLB team in 2011?

09:25 PM ET 01.06 |

Former Tigers right-hander Jeremy Bonderman is on the scrap heap of free agent starters right now after a 5.53 ERA in '10 and a 5.19 ERA the last four seasons. Is he even worth a look for the Yankees or any other team?

I'll just say it straight out: if Jeremy Bonderman signs a major league contract worth any amount of money with any MLB team (including the Yankees) I will rip that team. Here's why.

You have to notice that 5.19 ERA figure above. Bonderman hasn't had one bad season, he's had four. To compound the problem, he hasn't been healthy, missing time with injuries each of the last four season since tying for the AL lead with 34 starts in 2006. 2006 was Bonderman's one good year, as he went 14-8 with a 4.08 ERA and 202 K's in 34 starts in 214 innings. Bonderman had an outstanding 8.5 K/9 that year, but he has a career 7.1 K/9 and just one other year over 8.0. It's not like Bonderman might have great upside in '11 if healthy. Bonderman's downfall is interestingly hits allowed. He has allowed 3.1 walks per 9 innings, a decent ratio, and 1.1 homers per 9 innings, which is acceptable (but then again, he pitched his home games at Comerica Park), but he has allowed 9.5 hits per 9 innings in his career, very suprising for a strikeout pitcher. Even in his good (not superb) 2006 season, he allowed exactly a hit per inning (9.0 H/9). His only season in which he had under a hit per inning (8.2 H/9) was 2004, when he posted a 4.89 ERA. Was was interesting about that year is that in 7 starts he had an 11.92 ERA and he had a 2.97 ERA in his another 22 starts. He gave up 7 runs three times, 6 runs three times, and 5 runs once. That season shows Bonderman's problem throughout his career: he's a decent pitcher, but sometimes he just implodes. he has allowed 5 runs or more in a game at least 6 times every season of his career besides '08 and '09 when he appeared in a combined 20 games (12 starts). Roy Halladay has given up 5 or more runs in a start 6 or more times in a season just 1 time in the last 6 seasons. Felix Hernandez has just 1 such season on his entire career resume (2006).

Here's the bottom line with Bonderman: he's an inconsistent pitcher with little upside. If you're lucky, he'll give you a 4.00 ERA. He's a former 19 game loser and a 2-time 14 game winner, which says it all. He's been all the way down, but never really been an ace-type pitcher. Will somone offer him a minor league deal? Of course. Just don't expect too much.

Are the Yankees doomed without Pettitte?

Andy Pettitte will make a decision on his future within the next couple days. Will that decision determine the Yankees' fate in 2011?

The Yankees have a great lineup, but the obvious question is their pitching. CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 in '10) is a rock-solid ace, and Phil Hughes is a solid pitcher (18-8, 4.19), but after that, the rotation really tails off. Who knows what the Yankees are going to get from AJ Burnett (10-15, 5.26)? Then of course, without Pettitte, there's a huge competition for the 4th and 5th starter spots. The favorites are Ivan Nova (1-2 4.50 in the majors and 12-3, 2.86 at Triple-A) and Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33, but just a 5.93 ERA as a starter). The other options currently are David Phelps (10-2, 2.50 between Double-A and Triple-A), Andrew Brackman (5-7, 3.01 at Double-A, but strangely 5-4, 5.10 at High-A), and Hector Noesi (14-7, 3.20 between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A). Among those "other" options, I would think that only Phelps has any shot because Brackman and Noesi have a combined 3 games at Triple-A. The glaring omission from my list is Manny Banuelos (0-4, 2.51), but he has logged only 3 games at Double-A, so he's not ready yet. So, two of Mitre, Nova, and Phelps will be starters for the Yankees if Pettitte retires. Oh my gosh.

Pettitte went 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 101 K's in 21 starts and 129 IP. Of course, he missed two months with a groin injury. Would Pettitte be able to stay healthy in 2011? That's a big question. But, he would be very effective even if he posts a 4.20 ERA (like Hughes) in around 20 starts and is available for the playoffs.

Ivan Nova had a very interesting 7 starts in the majors. He went 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his starts. In the first inning he posted a 1.29 ERA. In the second inning, he posted a 0.00 ERA. What? He didn't even walk a single batter! In the third inning he posted a 6.43 ERA, but whatever, he posted a 2.57 ERA in the 4th inning. But then, he allowed a 15.00 ERA in the 5th inning. Wow. That's not good. He allowed as many homers (2) as he allowed every other inning COMBINED. Even when he survived the 5th, he posted a 6.43 ERA in the 6th. He just couldn't finish his 5 innings. To put it another way, he allowed a .196 BA the first time through the order, a .246 BA the second time through, and then a .400 BA the third time through! Every hitter turned into Ted Williams against him! (Fine, just almost as good- Williams hit .402.) But, the question is, was Nova's decline late in games a fluke or not? There are two reason that it was probably (not definitely) a fluke. Nova threw 187 innings between the majors and minors, easily his most ever, so maybe fatigue was a factor as he passed his previous high for innings (which he was 0.2 IP short of when he was promoted to the majors to stay in August). Also, Nova got really unlucky. And I really mean that. Overall, Nova allowed a .296 BAbip (batting average on balls in play), right around the league average, but he allowed a .444 BAbip with runners in scoring position. That's crazy. I doubt that not being able to finish his starts will not be as much of a problem for Nova in 2011.

Sergio Mitre. Please Andy, come back so we don't have to see this guy in the rotation. Mitre has a 13-25 record as a starter with a 5.48 ERA. How has he started 64 games? At least as a reliever he's posted a 4.34 ERA. It's not like anything's weird with Mitre. He has a .312 career BAbip, so that doesn't make his stats look any better. In all 9 innings, Mitre has allowed a BA over .265 and under .333. He's just not good as a starter, there's no two ways about it. I hope the Yankees don't make the mistake of putting Mitre in their rotation.

Would I be more confident in David Phelps as the 5th starter than I would be in Sergio Mitre? I think so. Phelps, who turned 24 in October, has never been regarded as an elite prospect yet he has performed well at every level of the minors. Phelps has a 2.50 ERA, nearly as good as Phil Hughes' 2.37 minor league ERA (I went more into that comparison here) and he has never repeated any level of the minors for any period of time. He isn't a strikeout pitcher (7.4 career K/9), but he has great control (2.0 career BB/9). He has also allowed just 0.5 homers per 9 innings. Most of all, Phelps is a winner, as evidenced by his 31-8 career record. Keep in mind that Ivan Nova was just 35-32 in his minor league career (3.80 ERA). Will Phelps be a competitor for Rookie of the Year is given that 5th starter job? Probably not. But, he should be able to post a 4.50 ERA and keep the Yankees in his starts.

Andy, please come back. Ivan Nova is pretty good and David Phelps might end up being a fine pitcher himself (Yankees, please don't make Mitre the 5th starter!), but Pettitte would certainly be better than either of them. Pettitte is pretty likely not to stay healthy the whole year, so Phelps would probably get his chance anyway (again, please Yankees, don't put Mitre in the rotation). Maybe the Yankees should sign a minor league free agent to compete with Nova and Phelps (and Mitre) if Pettitte retires, but if I was Brian Cashman, I wouldn't be too aggressive signing any of the remaining starters or doing some stupid move (i.e. Bartolo Colon).

The strange tale of former Yankee Ruben Rivera

The Yankees have traded so many prospects. Some have become superstars, but most of them have never amounted to anything. Ruben Rivera fell somewhere in between.

Rivera, a centerfielder who is Mariano Rivera's cousin, was signed as a 17 year old in 1990, the same year the much more famous Rivera was signed. He didn't play his first game in the Yankee system until 1992, but once he arrived, he did pretty well, hitting .273 with 21 stolen bases and a .417 OBP at Rookie ball. He posted just a .951 Fld% in CF, but with 10 outfield assists. The next season, he began to show five-tool potential at Short Season-A Oneonta, hitting .276 with 7 doubles, 13 homers, 47 RBI, 6 triples, 12 stolen bases, a .385 OBP, a .976 Fld% in CF, and 9 outfield assists. Before the 1994 season, despite being so far down in the minors, Rivera was named the 76th best prospect in the minors by Baseball America. In 1994, Rivera had a tremendous season. Between Low-A Greensboro and High-A Tampa, Rivera hit .281 with 28 doubles, 33 homers, 101 RBI, 6 triples, 101 runs, 48 stolen bases, a .357 OBP, a .978 Fld% in CF, and 7 outfield assists in 139 games. He showed all the skills necessary to be a superstar. Accordingly, despite still being at A ball, Rivera was ranked the 2nd best prospect in the minors entering the 1995 season. In 1995 between Double-A Norwich and Triple-A Columbus, Rivera couldn't quite repeat his 30-30 performance , but he had another outstanding season, as he hit .284 with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 74 RBI, 10 SB, 86 runs, 24 SB, a .390 OBP, a .981 Fld%, and 6 assists in 119 games. He was so good that he got his first "cup of coffee" in the majors, appearing in 5 games and striking out in his only AB. Rivera appeared to be well on his way to being a superstar for the Yankees (or whatever team he was traded to).

In 1996, everything changed. Rivera was ranked the 3rd best prospect in the minors entering the season, but he certainly disappointed, hitting just .235 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 46 RBI, 4 triples, 15 SB, a .324 OBP, a .972 Fld% in CF, and 6 outfield assists in 101 games. It wasn't a terrible season, but it certainly was a step backwards. But, that lack of performance in the minors may have been because he spent his first extended time in the big leagues for the Yankees. He hit .284 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 16 RBI, 16 SB, a .381 OBP, a perfect 1.000 Fld% at all three outfield position, and 2 assists. Rivera even earned a spot on the Yankees' ALDS roster (but not the ALCS or World Series rosters). Maybe Rivera wasn't going to be a superstar, but he certainly had a chance to be a productive big league player for the Yankees. But, the Yankees coaches were upset with Rivea's attitude, and to complicate matters, he hurt his shoulder throwing out a runner late in the season. In February 1997, Rivera underwent surgery on his injured shoulder. His future with the Yankees was in question.

Rivera never played another game in the Yankee system before being traded to the San Diego Padres while still injured. That trade sent Hideki Irabu to the Yankees. Due to his injury, Rivera played just 35 games between the majors and minors, hitting .225 with 2 homers and 2 SB in 18 minor league games, and .250 with two SB in 17 games for the Padres. He did not make any errors in the outfield or post any assists. He seemed to be declining more and more offensively. In 1998, Rivera hit just .144 in 30 minor league games! But, he did much better in the majors. He hit just .209, but with 7 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, 2 triples, 5 SB, a .325 OBP, a .973 Fld% in the outfield, and 3 assists in 95 games. It certainly wasn't a great season, but he did prove he could at least be a productive bench player.

In 1999, Rivera had one of the most bizarre seasons EVER. He played the entire season in the majors, hitting just .195 in 147 games. That's certainly not good. But, he hit 16 doubles, 23 homers, 48 RBI, 1 triple, 18 SB, 65 runs, and a .295 OBP. He nearly went 20-20 while hitting .195! He is the only player in the history of Major League Baseball to hit under .200 with over 20 homers and over 15 stolen bases. Unbelievable. About his 48 RBI's, it takes some skill to have your RBI's be barely double the amount of homers you hit in a season. He hit 18 solo shots and just 5 homers with runners on base. He hit just .160 with runners in scoring position. Defensively, he posted a .976 Fld%, but with 8 assists. What a season!

In 2000, Rivera had his best season, although it wasn't anywhere near as unique as '99. He hit above the Mendoza line at .208 with 18 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 6 triples, 8 SB, 62 runs, a .296 OBP, a .984 Fld%, and 10 assists. A whopping five other players have hit under .210 with 15 or more homers and 8 or more stolen bases (obviously, Rivera's 1999 season qualifies as well). Following the season, the Padres didn't care how unique Rivera was and they released him. He just wasn't a good player because of his low batting averages.

In 2001, Rivera was signed by the Cincinnati Reds. He had a bad season, but he set his career high for a full season with a .255 BA, 13 doubles, 10 homers, 34 RBI, 1 triple, 6 SB, a .321 OBP, a .983 Fld% in the outfield, and 4 outfield assists in 117 games. After the season, Rivera was re-signed by the Yankees, but during spring training, he made the stupid mistake of selling Derek Jeter's glove for $2500 and he got released. He was then signed by the Rangers, and with them, hit .209 with 4 homers and 4 stolen bases in 69 games. In '03, Rivera hit .180 with 2 homers for the Giants. At age 29, he had played his last 31 games in the majors.

After sitting out the '04 season, Rivera signed a minor league contract with the Yankees. After hitting .118 in 6 games, he left and signed with Campeche of the Mexican League where he hit .342 with 21 homers, 71 RBI, 14 SB, and a .432 OBP in 80 games. Rivera was so good in the Mexican League that he was signed to a minor league contract by the White Sox in '06. He hit .239 with 16 homers in 107 games for Triple-A Charlotte, but didn't earn a call-up to the majors. Since then, he has played exclusively in the Mexican League, hitting .349 with 103 homers, and 60 SB the past four seasons. Rivera has now hit 256 homers in the minors and stolen 222 bases.

Rivera was supposed to be a great player, but he never really panned out for the Yankees or any other team. He had all the skills, but he just couldn't hit for average at all. Obviously, not all players can be 5-tool players, but if you're a 4-tool player, the missing tool better not be hitting for average (unless you're Mark Reynolds who has ridiculous power). Whenever you see minor league stats, you can't conclude that I player is going to be a superstar. You have to be able to put it all together at the major league level. Rivera obviously was unable to do that. (Not that he was a Quad-A player- keep in mind that he posted minor league BA's of .235, .225, and .144 from '96 to '98.) No prospect is ever a sure thing. Rivera was ranked the 3rd-best, 2nd-best, and 9th-best prospect in the minors entering the 1995, 1996, and 1997 seasons respectively. Were the Yankees right to trade all these prospects? In most cases, no. But, sometimes it's better to get a sure thing rather than a prospect who may or may not pan out.

A tale of two trades: Randy Johnson's tenure in the Bronx

Does everyone remember when Randy Johnson was traded to the Yankees? It was a critical time period for them, right after the sheer disappointment and failure of the 2004 postseason. So what did they do? They traded for Johnson. Who did they trade? Javier Vazquez, Dioner Navarro, and Brad Halsey. We all know why they traded Vazquez... does game 7 ring a bell? Navarro was a catching prospect who had already made a cameo in the majors at that time, but he hit just .263 in the minors in '04, and the Yankees already had Posada. Halsey, the one you probably haven't heard of, was a lefty starter coming off an outstanding season at Triple-A in which he went 11-4 with 2.62 ERA in 23 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 144 IP. He struck out just 108 (6.8 per 9), but walked just 37 (2.3 per 9). He also made 8 appearances in the majors, including 7 starts, but he posted a 6.47 ERA (3 good starts, 4 bad starts). The trade to get Johnson was certainly a reasonable one for the Yanks. Although he was already 41 years old, he was also coming off a great year himself, having gone 16-14 with a 2.60 ERA and 290 K's in 35 starts and 245.1 IP for a terrible D-backs team.


As you probably remember, Johnson's tenure in the Bronx had mix reviews. In '05, he had a good season anchoring the Yankee staff, but not a great season, going 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA and 'just' 211 K's in 34 starts and 225.2 IP. No only Yankee starter that threw 200 innings, won 15 games, and or 150 batters. He was the one stabilizing force in a season riddled by injuries to starting pitchers (this was the Aaron Small/Shawn Chacon year). In 2005 though, Johnson was not anywhere near as effective. He won 17 games again, going 17-11, but with a 5.00 ERA and just 172 K's in 33 starts and 205 IP. After the year, the Yankees traded Johnson back to Arizona in exchange for Luis Vizcaino, Ross Ohlendorf, Steven Jackson, and Alberto Gonzalez. Vizcaino had a nice year as a reliever in '05, posting a 4.30 ERA, but in 77 appearances. He left as a free agent following the year. (He recently re-signed with the Yankees.) Ohlendorf pitched very badly for the Yankees for parts of two seasons for the Yanks (6.02 ERA), but has been a good pitcher since being traded to Pittsburgh, posting a 12-24 record despite a 4.15 ERA. Jackson never pitched for the Yankees, but has posted a 4.31 ERA for the Pirates as a reliever. The Yankees traded Gonzalez to Washington after he hit just .152 for them. None of the acquired players made a difference for the Yankees long-term.

Johnson posted a 3.89 ERA for Arizona from '07 to '08. After getting his 300th win while playing for the Giants in 2010, he retired. He will certainly be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. That being said, his 2-year tenure with the Yankees showed that he was really taking advantage of pitching in the NL West. His ERA was much better in the NL (2.92) than in the NL (3.60) for his career. But, he was still a good enough pitcher to survive even in the tough AL East and win 34 games in two seasons.

Randy Johnson's two year tenure in the Bronx was not successful, but had the Yankees not acquired him, they would not have made the playoffs in '05. Even though he struggled in the AL East, he still found ways to win ballgames and help the team win. He should be credited for lasting his age 41 and age 42 seasons in the AL East, rather than have his 4.37 ERA during that time period held against him. Even in the twilight of his career, he was still able to get the job done with all the pressure in the world on him under the bright lights of New York.

Comparing the 1996 and 2009 Yankee championship teams

When I first thought of the idea for this post, I thought that the 2009 Yankees would be so different be so different from the 1996 Yankees. Really, when you look at the big picture, that's not the case. Let's compare them position by position to illustrate that point.

C: Joe Girardi vs. Jorge Posada
Before you say anything, let's compare the salaries: 2.325 million dollars vs. 13.1 million dollars. Sure, Girardi was signed as a free agent, but to be a role player. Also, the players themselves couldn't be more different. Girardi hit .294 with 22 doubles, 2 homers, 45 RBI, 13 SB, and a .346 OBP in 124 games. He also played well defensively, posting a .996 Fld% at catcher, and a 25% CS%. Posada in contrast, hit .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, 1 SB (had to point that out), and a .363 OBP in 111 games. He posted just a .990 Fld%, although he did post a 28% CS%. Girardi was a scrappy player who got on base and played well defensively. Posada was a power hitter who had trouble just stopping errant pitches (Girardi had 10 passed balls compared to Posada's 31). Going by WAR, Posada had a much better season. But, was he worth almost 11 million dollars more? Either way, both players played important roles for their teams.

1B: Tino Martinez vs. Mark Teixeira
Let's look at the salaries again. 2.3 million dollars for Tino compared to 20.625 million dollars for Teix. Tino and Teix was much more similar than you would think based on their salaries. Tino hit .292 with 28 doubles, 25 homers, 117 RBI, 82 runs, and a .364 OBP in 155 games. Teix hit that same .292 with 43 doubles, 39 homers, 122 RBI, 103 runs, and a .383 OBP in 156 games. Tino posted a .996 Fld% at 1B compared to Teixeira's .997. First base might be the one position where both teams were very similar. Teixeira was a better player, but not by that much. Obviously, Teix isn't worth over 18 million dollars more than Tino. Both teams filled a very similar role for their respective teams- a power-hitting first baseman in the middle of the lineup who also plays well defensively.

2B: Mariano Duncan vs. Robinson Cano
The salary gap here isn't that far: 845,000 dollars for Duncan compared to 6 million dollars for Cano. They certainly had very different seasons. Duncan hit .340 with 34 doubles, 8 homers, 56 RBI, and just a .352 OBP (9 walks all year) in 109 games.Cano hit .320 with 48 doubles, 25 homers, 85 RBI, 103 runs, and a .352 OBP (30 walks) in 161 games. Defensively, Cano was far superior, posting a .984 Fld% at Duncan's .973. Duncan was an incredible hitter for average that had few other skills, while Cano was an amazing hitter who hit for average and power in addition to being a Gold Glover defensively. Cano was significantly better, but Duncan filled a nice niche for the 1996 team.

3B: Wade Boggs vs. Alex Rodriguez
2.05 million dollars versus 33 million. Oh my gosh. Boggs and A-rod are as different as night and day. Boggs hit .311 with 29 doubles, 2 homers, 41 RBI, 80 runs, 1 SB, and a .389 OBP in 132 games. A-rod hit .286 with 17 doubles, 30 homers, 100 RBI, 78 runs, 14 SB, and a .402 OBP in 124 games. Boggs posted a .974 Fld% at third base compared to .967 by A-rod. Boggs is a Hall of Famer because he was an amazing pure hitter. A-rod was once a good pure hitter (215 hits in 1996 and 213 in 1998), but is now known strictly as a power hitter. Boggs was a very good role player at that point in his career, while A-rod was still a superstar when he came back from injury. They contributed very different aspects to their teams; Boggs was a top-of-the-lineup kind of player who was a table-setter for the big hitters. A-rod, obviously, is a big hitter.

SS: Derek Jeter vs. Derek Jeter
The salary comparison isn't fair- Jeter was a rookie in '96 so of course he didn't a lot of money! He made just 160 thousand dollars compared to 21.6 million in 2009. Let's compare Jeter's seasons. He certainly had two Jeterian seasons. He hit .314 with 25 doubles, 10 homers, 78 RBI, 104 runs, 183 hits, 14 SB, and a .370 OBP in 157 games on his way to the AL Rookie of the Year. Like most rookie shortstops, he did struggle defensively, posting a .969 Fld% (although his range was must better than it is now). In '09, he also had a great season, hitting .334 with 27 doubles, 18 homers, 66 RBI, 107 runs, 212 hits, 30 SB, and a .406 OBP in 153 games. He posted a .986 Fld%. Jeter was a great player both back then and in '09 (maybe not really anymore).

LF: Gerald Williams/Tim Raines vs. Johnny Damon
Looking at the salaries, Damon easily made more than Williams and Raines combined. Raines made 2.1 million dollars and Williams made '200 thousand while Damon made 13 million. Williams had a below-average season, hitting .270 with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, 7 SB, and just a .319 OBP while posting just a .978 Fld% in LF, which was just slightly below league average, but you would expect more from a player who played most of his career in centerfield. To make things worse, he only had 1 assist. He was traded to the Brewers in August (through waivers). Raines meanwhile, was sidelined most of the year by a hamstring tear, but came back after Williams was traded. He did well, hitting .284 with 10 doubles, 9 homers, 33 RBI, 45 runs, and a .383 OBP in 59 games. He also posted an above average .988 Fld% in LF, with 3 assists. In 2009, Damon had a great season offensively, hitting .282 with 36 doubles, 24 homers, 82 RBI, 107 runs, 12 SB, and a .365 OBP in 143 games. But, he posted an astronomically below average .978 Fld% in LF (league average was .987). This guy was playing centerfield the year before! Anyway, Damon was certainly better than Gim Waines (Williams + Raines). But again, was he worth 10 million dollars more?

CF: Bernie Williams vs. Melky Cabrera
In terms of salaries, Bernie made 3 million dollars to Melky's 1.4 million. Bernie was certainly double as good as Melky. He hit .305 with 26 doubles, 29 homers, 102 RBI, 108 runs, 17 SB, and a .391 OBP in 143 games. He did post just a .986 Fld% in centerfield, which was below average, but he had 10 outfield assists, third in the league. He had an outstanding season. Not that Melky was bad at all. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .990 Fld% in the outfield, including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF, but he posted just 3 assists. In a battle of arbitration-eligible players (Bernie won in a hearing), Bernie was certainly a far superior player, although Melky filled an important role for the 2009 Yankees.

RF: Paul O'Neill vs. Nick Swisher
O'Neill and Swisher happened to make nearly the same amount of money, with O'Neill earning 5.3 million dollars and Swish earning 5.4. Both players had good seasons. O'Neill hit .302 with 35 doubles, 19 homers, 91 RBI, 89 runs, and a .411 OBP in 150 games. Swish hit .249 with 35 doubles, 29 homers, 82 RBI, 84 runs, and a .371 OBP in 150 games. O'Neill was superb defensively, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld% at RF with 7 assists, while Swish was still OK at .983 with 7 assists as well. They gave similar contributions to their teams (O'Neill was better), so they certainly deserved similar salaries.

DH: Ruben Sierra/Darryl Strawberry/Cecil Fielder vs. Hideki Matsui
The three headed monster at DH made a total of 6.5 million dollars, while Matsui made double that, 13 million dollars. Ruben Sierra was the DH for the '96 Yankees until July. But, he performed so poorly (.258 BA, .327 OBP, 11 homers in 96 games), that the Yankees traded him for Cecil Fielder at the deadline, and acquired Darryl Strawbery. (Fielder was actually in the middle of his last monster season, as he would go on to hit 39 homers and drive in 119 runs.) Decil Fieldberry hit 24 homers in a combined 116 games, hitting .261. (Darryl played a bit in the outfield and Fielder played some first base). All 3 players combined hit .260 with 35 homers and 125 RBI in 212 games. Matsui himself hit .274 with 28 homers and 90 RBI in 142 games. Advantage 2009. Might as well pay double for some stability rather than RubenDecil Sierra-Fieldberry. (Thank you BenJarvus Green-Ellis.)

Rotation:
The 1996 Yankees had a rotation of Andy Pettitte (21-8, 3.87 ERA), Kenny Rodgers (12-8, 4.68), Dwight Gooden (11-7, 5.01), Jimmy Key (12-11, 4.68), David Cone, who missed much of the year with an aneurysm (7-2, 2.88), and Ramiro Mendoza, who replaced him (4-5, 6.79). They earned a total of 11.467 million dollars. The 2009 Yankee rotation consisted of CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37), AJ Burnett (13-9, 4.04), Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16), Joba Chamberlain (9-6, 4.75), and Chien-Ming Wang/Sergio Mitre/Chad Gaudin (combined 6-9, 6.63, although Gaudin went 2-0, 3.43). They made 42 million, 718 thousand, 289 dollars. That's almost 4 times as much as '96. But their ERA was better, 4.40 compared to 4.56, but not THAT much better!

Closer: John Wetteland vs. Mariano Rivera
There's no comparison. Rivera earned so much more (15 million dollars to 4 million), but he pitched much better. He posted a 1.76 ERA and 44 saves compared to Wetteland's still great 2.83 ERA and 43 saves. Rivera isn't 11 million dollars better, but he certainly was (and is at least arguably) the best closer in baseball.

I couldn't compare everybody, but these are the cores of those teams. Salaries are certainly different now from then, so the salary comparison is not really fair. Still, the 2009 Yankees had five times the payroll of '96. But, they were both built off of free agents with some amount homegrown talent mixed in. That's the Yankee formula now, and it won't change anytime soon. The Yankees, even with their great talent in the minors right now, do not have a homegrown dynasty coming. No matter how great the prospects are, only the very best will make it, and the rest of the roster will be made up of players, superstars, and some role players, acquired via free agency and trades. Many of the second-best prospects might have great careers with other teams, but it just won't work out for them with the Yankees. Even after A-rod's, Teixeira's, and CC's contracts expire, we all know there will be new big contracts handed out. If they do their moves right, we'll see another dynasty coming soon.

Looking back at the great career of Bernie Williams

Bernie Williams is not a Hall of Famer. But, he will always be remembered as a great Yankee and a winner. He appeared in 121 postseason games. When you go through his postseason stats, they're staggering. Just a .275 BA, but with 29 doubles, 22 homers, 80 RBI, and a .375 OBP in 121 games. Those would be darn good stats for a full season! In terms of postseason stats, he's second to Derek Jeter in games played, at-bats, plate appearances, runs scored, hits, total bases, singles, and doubles for the most all time. He's second in homers behind Manny Ramirez and still holds the all-time record for RBI. He's one of the best postseason performers of the wild card era.

He wasn't too shabby in the regular season either. He had a .297 career BA with 287 homers and a .381 OBP. He averaged 18 homers and 79 RBI per season in his career- not legendary stats, but he certainly was a huge part of every Yankee team he played for until the very end. He was a 5-time all star, a 4-time Gold Glover, and he won the American League batting title in 1998. For a time, from 1995 to 2002, Williams was one of the best players in baseball. He hit 194 of his homers, and averaged a .321 BA, 24 homers, 102 RBI, and a .406 OBP per season. After that point, like any regular player, he declined. But even as the clock was winding down on his career, Williams was still a productive player, hitting just a .263 BA from '03 to the end of his career in '06, but still averaged 15 homers, 65 RBI, and a .346 OBP. He played his last game shortly after his 38th birthday and later retired after a lengthy contract dispute. Speaking of the contract dispute after the '06 season, it perfectly exemplified Williams as a person. He was unhappy when the Yankees did not offer him a major league contract, but has since mended his relationship with the Yankees.

On the back of my dad's 1999 Yankees World Champions shirt, it has Bernie Williams' number 51. That's the way we'll remember him. He was a great player, a great person, and most of all, a winner.

Greinke to Milwaukee

I am completely shocked. I didn't think the Yankees would get him, but when was the last time the Milwaukee Brewers made such a big trade? Anyway, let's review the trade. The trade is RHP Zack Greinke and SS Yuniesky Betancourt for SS Alcides Escobar, CF Lorenzo Cain, and RHP's Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi.

Greinke, after his dazzling 2009, did not put up great numbers in '10, going 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA and 181 K's in 33 starts and 220 IP. But, a closer look at his stats certainly shows you something interesting. After posting a 2.56 ERA in April (somehow going 0-2), he posted a 4.37 ERA from May until the end of July (although his record was 7-8). Every pitcher has bad stretches, and a 4.37 ERA isn't even that bad. Greinke then proceeded to post a 3.16 ERA in August, improving his ERA to 3.81. But then, he posted a 5.92 ERA in September. Still, he posted a 2-3 record that month. How? Well, he won the 2 games he pitched against teams with winning records, and posted 3 losses and a no-decision in his other starts. He just got bored. Being on the Royals can do that to you. Milwaukee is getting an amazing pitcher who will tear up the National League. You might even be able to make an argument that Milwaukee's top 4 in their rotation (Greinke, Yovani Gollardo, Shaun Marcum, and Randy Wolf) if the second best top 4 in the NL behind you-know-who, the South Beach of starting pitching, Philadelphia. It would not surprise me or anyone if Greinke finishes at least a solid third in the Cy Young award voting in the NL behind if anyone, Halladay and Lee.

Everyone likes Yuniesky Betancourt, right? Of course not. Betancourt is one of those players who starts on bad teams. Good thing the Brewers have Craig Counsell, right? (They also have a SS prospect named Luis Cruz who did well at Triple-A last year.) They better not start Betancourt, who has played 9 games at 2nd base during his career. So, how bad is Betancourt? At first glance, not so bad. He hit .259 in '10 with 29 doubles, 16 homers, and 78 RBI. Isn't that pretty good? Well, not really when you post a .288 OBP. His career high in OBP is .310. His career OBP is under .300 (.296). You just can't have a below-.300 OBP and expect to be a regular on a good team. The thing is though, how did he manage to drive in 78 run if he's such a bad player. The answer: pure luck. He hit .257 with runners in scoring position on the Royals! He just got lucky and had 152 at-bats in those situations. He had just 39 hits, but drove in 61 runs. The Brewers will certainly not give him that many at-bats (he had 588 overall in '10). Betancourt's 78 RBI were certainly a fluke that he will not replicate in 2011, even if he were to be given enough at-bats. And that's just his hitting! He posted a .974 Fld% at SS in '10, committing 18 errors (3 times as many as Derek Jeter). The league average Fld% at SS was .973. Even though he did show somewhat better range than Jeter, that's just bad. Betancourt is a bad player. The Royals are lucky to get rid of him.

Alcides Escobar was supposed to be the Brewers' shortstop for a long time. Well, that certainly didn't happen. Escobar appeared to have such a promising future after hitting .306, .328, and a .298 in the minors '07, '08, and '09 while stealing 98 bases. He got his chance in the majors in '10, but he just wasn't good enough. He hit .325 with 14 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, just 10 stolen bases, and, get this, the same OBP as Yuniesky Betancourt had in '10, .288. That's bad. I did withhold the fact that he did have 10 triples, third in the NL. Still, he certainly was a huge disappointment. And don't get me started on his defense. He posted a .967 Fld% at SS (the NL average was .971), with Derek Jeter-esque range (I mean that in a bad way). The Royals better hope and pray that Escobar develops into the player that his minor league stats 'said' he was going to be.

Cain had an exceptional year between the minors and majors in '10. He hit .317 in 84 minor league games with 11 doubles, 3 homers, 27 RBI, 9 triples, 27 SB, and a .402 OBP. He then hit .306 in the majors with 11 doubles, 1 homer, 13 RBI, 1 triple, 7 SB, and a .348 OBP in 43 major league games. He posted a .972 Fld% in CF in the minors, with 4 outfield assists, while posting a .980 Fld% with 2 assists in the majors. Cain's outfield assists count seems to be tied with his fielding percentage: in four minor league seasons, Cain posted a fielding percentage of .990 or better, but had no more than 3 outfield assists in any of those seasons. In the four minor league seasons besides '10 that Cain posted an ERA under .990 , Cain had no fewer than 8 outfield assists, including a ridiculous 15 outfield assists in 2006 (he did post just a .960 Fld% that season). Cain has a lot of potential and could be a fixture in the Royals outfield for a long time.

As if I haven't talking about enough misfits in this post, let me talk about Jeremy Jeffress. He has been suspended not once, but twice, for using marijuana. Simply put, that's not good. But, the righty reliever did well in both the minors and majors, posting a 2.23 ERA and 4 saves in 23 minor league appearances and a 2.70 ERA in 10 appearances for the Brewers. He could certainly be the next Royals closer after Joakim Soria leaves. They just need to keep him out of trouble.

Odorizzi is a righy starter that unlike the other players in this deal, has never played above Short Season-A ball. But, he did go 7-3 in '10 with a 3.43 ERA and 135 K's (10.1 K/9) in 20 starts, 3 relief appearances, and 120.2 IP at SS-A Wisconsin. He certainly has potential, and could be 'the next Greinke in a couple of years' (what the Royals stated they wanted) if he pans out.

This is an interesting trade for the Royals. Potentially, they could get four star players from this trade. But, there's a good chance that Escobar and Odorizzi don't pan out. It's a calculated gamble, and they better hope they're right. This is a great trade for the Brewers. For the prospects gave up, they all had reasons to trade them. Escobar was a disappointment, and they have Luis Cruz. For Cain, they have Carlos Gomez. Jeffress certainly has his problems, and you never know with Odorizzi, so it may have been worth it to trade him while his value was high. In return for these prospects, the Brewers got a star pitcher to cement their pitching staff in Greinke and will now be contenders in the NL Central and will certainly have an opportunity to win it.

A brief thought on Cliff Lee going to the Phillies

Everybody is shocked. How the heck did Cliff Lee turn down both the Yankees' money and the Rangers' proximity to his home an his great experience there this past season? Well, after thinking about it, there is a simple reason that Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies. Lee's plan was to go to Philadelphia the whole time. The only question was whether the Phillies would make an offer that was anywhere near the offers of the Yankees and Phillies. They did, so he signed. But, what was Lee's reasoning behind the move? He never wanted to leave. Lee and his wife loved Philadelphia. Lee had spent just half a season there, but was already talking about a contract extension after the season. But, then the Phillies traded for Roy Halladay, and apparently because of budget issues (how ironic!), they were forced to trade Lee to Seattle. Lee was upset, but he appeared to move on after the season started. He then got traded to Texas, led them to a World Series, and started saying 'we' when referring to the team. Acting like that to the Mariners and Rangers was just a negotiation strategy. He even had his wife look for a house in New York with CC Sabathia's wife, possibly for an ulterior motive as well. Acting like such a 'darling' with the other teams made them think they had a chance at signing him (the Mariners tried to sign Lee to an extension) to up the Phillies' offer. It was a great a move by Lee and his agent, but as a Yankee fan I hate it, and so should all other Yankee fans and all Ranger fans. He used us all.

Crawford to Boston

OF Carl Crawford has agreed to a 7 year, 142 million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. That gives the Red Sox four starting outfielders (Crawford, Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew, and Jacoby Ellsbury), so Ellsbury is about to be traded, probably to San Diego as the player to be named in the Adrian Gonzalez deal.

First, let's look at this deal from Boston's standpoint. They're getting one of the best outfielders in baseball. Crawford had a ridiculous season in '10, hitting .307 with 30 doubles, 19 homers, 90 RBI, 13 triples, 110 runs, 184 hits, 47 SB (10 CS), and a .356 in 154 games for the Rays. His 13 triples led the league, while his 47 stolen bases were third, and his .307 BA was 9th. To put his stats in perspective, he had the same BA as Ryan Zimmerman, 1 less homer than Victor Martinez, as many stolen bases as Brett Gardner (1 more CS than him), and 1 less run than Miguel Cabrera (and Derek Jeter). He also posted a .994 Fld% in LF with 7 outfield assists, good enough to win a Gold Glove. He's just an amazing player, and he will be worth every penny of the 142 million.

How about Ellsbury though? Is Crawford that much better than him? Well, first of all, Ellsbury couldn't stay healthy in '10. That's obviously a problem. Even ignoring the injuries, let's look at his 2009, his best season. He hit .301 with 27 doubles, 8 homers, 60 RBI, 10 triples, 94 runs, 188 hits, 70 SB (12 CS), and a .355 OBP in 153 games. But, the more advanced metrics say that Ellsbury played very badly defensively in centerfield that season. More notable to me is his -9.7 UZR (9.7 runs below average Ultimate Zone Rating). He had a 21.3 UZR in '08, the year before. Crawford by the way, had an 18.5 UZR in '10. (Gardner posted a 21.9 UZR to lead all AL left fielders in '10.) Ellsbury just wasn't that great of a player for Boston. But, is he so bad to warrant the Red Sox paying Crawford about 18 million dollars more than Ellsbury will make in '10? No. Good job by the Red Sox to sign Crawford, but from an economic standpoint at least, it wasn't worth it to sign Crawford to replace Ellsbury for so much more money. The way that the Red Sox could resolve that would be to trade Mike Cameron. Of course, no other would team pay an outfielder that will be 38 in a month and who was hurt in '10 and has a .250 career batting average eight million dollars (he was a TERRIBLE signing). So, the Red Sox are going to be forced to trade Ellsbury.

Now, let's look at it from a Yankee standpoint. My first reaction to the signing was "Oh no, the Red Sox signed Crawford!". My second reaction was a very different one. The Red Sox signing Crawford isn't a good thing for the Yankees, but it isn't so bad for two reasons: 1) the Yankees can focus all their energies on signing Cliff Lee, knowing that they don't have Crawford as a backup plan (they just offered Lee a 7 year deal); and 2) both Gardner and Nick Swisher will be back in 2011.

Last season, my friend who's a Mets fan was talking to be about how the Jerry Manuel was using Pedro Feliciano way too much. It got me thinking. What are the effects of overworking a reliever? Do they flame out within a few years? How many seasons can they last while appearing in so many games? Let's find out.

The easiest way to find overworked relievers is to look at the single-season records for most appearances by a pitcher in one season (I used baseball-reference here). Feliciano is unsurprisingly number 4 on that list. Numbers 1-3 are Mike Marshall, Kent Tekulve, and Salomon Torres. Almost shockingly, all 3 of them are righties.

Marshall was a righty closer primarily in the 70's for 10 different teams. He debuted as a closer for the Montreal Expos in 1971, appearing in 66 games with a 5-8 record, saving 23 and striking out 85 in 111.1 IP. He had appeared in just 28 games the year before (5 starts). You would think that he would have worn down as the season went on, but the exact opposite occurred. He went 1-5 with a 6.30 ERA in the first half, and 4-3 with a 2.64 ERA in the second half. In 1972, he appeared in 65 games, but he did much better, going 14-8 out of the bullpen with a 1.78 ERA, 95 K's, and 18 saves in 116 IP. He was so good that the Expos put him in for 92 games in 1973, and he did not disappoint, going 14-11 while posting a 2.66 ERA, 124 K's and 31 saves (tops in the league) in 170 IP. After the season, the Expos traded him Marshall to the Dodgers. They must have thought that he would flame out after appearing in 92 games. At least in the short-term, they were wrong. In 1974 for the Dodgers, he set the record by appearing in an incredible 106 games, going 15-12 with a 2.42 ERA, 143 K's, and 21 saves (surprisingly tops in the league) in 208.1 IP. Yeah, over 200 IP out of the bullpen. In the seasons following 1974, Marshall averaged just 44 appearances per season, although he did appear in 90 games in 1979 at age 36. From the beginning of his career in 1967 to 1974, Marshall posted a 3.01 ERA. From 1975 until the end of his career in 1981, Marshall posted a 3.34 ERA. But, you can divide that 3.34 ERA into a 3.81 ERA in the 4 seasons after 1974 and a 2.95 ERA after that. Marshall apparently shows that a reliever can't keep up the 90+ games per season rate for too long and without being less durable and less effective for at least a few years after.

Tekulve was a righty closer for the Pirates, Phillies, and Reds from the mid-70's to the late 80's. After posting a 2.65 ERA and an average of 57 appearances per season in his first 3 major league seasons, Tekulve appeared in 91 games for the Pirates in 1978, going 8-7 with a 2.33 ERA, 77 K's, and 31 saves in 135.1 IP. He then appeared in 94 games for Pittsburgh in 1979, going 10-8 with a 2.75 ERA, 75 K's, and 31 saves again in 134.1 IP. After 1979, in the 10 seasons left in his career, Tekulve posted a 2.97 ERA and averaged 69 appearances per season. He even appeared in 85 games in '82 and 90 games in '87. He posted a 2.65 ERA from the beginning of his career to 1978. Tekulve didn't really wear down or become ineffective after appearing in 90 games in consecutive seasons. But is he the exception that proves the rule?

Torres was a righty middle reliever for 5 teams in the 90's and 00's (the decade of 2001 to 2010). He only saved 57 games his entire career. He posted a 4.48 ERA and an average of 31 games per season from 1993 from 2005 (he didn't appear in any games in the majors from 1998 to 2001 because he retired). In 2006, Torres went 3-6 with a 3.28 ERA, 72 K's, and 12 K's in 94 relief appearances and 93.1 IP. He posted a 5.47 ERA in 56 games in '07, and a 3.49 ERA in 71 games in 2008, his final season. He definitely lacked durability and effectiveness in '07, but he had his finest season in '08, saving 28 games in 71 appearances. Torres is in a different category than Marshall and Tekulve because he averaged many less innings per appearance than them primarily because he played more recently. Still, Torres does correspond to the hypothesis that appearing in 90 games causes relievers to be less durable and less effective, albeit to a lesser extent.

Other notable pitchers up there on the list include Paul Quantrill, Jon Rauch, Matt Capps, Scott Proctor, Heath Bell, and Mike Gonzalez.

Quantrill , another righty, is tied for 10th with 89 appearances in 2003 in addition to being tied for 22nd (two separate seasons), 61st, 96th, and 191st from other seasons) collapsed in 2005 at age 36 after 3 straight seasons with 86 or more appearances and 4 straight with 80.

Rauch, a righty reliever, is tied for 15th after appearing in 85 games in 2006 and 88 games in 2007 for the Nationals. He has averaged 69 appearances in the three seasons since, so he's been fine. His ERA after the two straight seasons with 85+ games has actually been better than before (3.66 to 3.74).

Capps, a righty closer, has been great despite making 85 appearances in his first full season at age 22 in '06, posting a 9-1 record with a 3.76 ERA. He has averaged 64 appearances, so he's certainly durable. He did post a 5.80 ERA in '09, but he's posted ERA's under 3.03 in the other three seasons including a 2.47 ERA and 42 saves in '10.

Bell, another righty closer, appeared in 81 games in '07, posting a 2.02 ERA. But, he posted a 2.77 ERA and an average of 70 appearances per season since. He certainly has been fine.

Gonzalez, a lefty closer, posted a great 2.42 ERA in 80 games in '09 for the Braves, but showed effects of the overuse in '10, suffering a shoulder injury in April, and posted a 4.01 ERA in 29 games overall.

Proctor, you may remember, was a righty middle reliever who the Yankees who was used by Joe Torre for 83 games in '06, posting a 3.52 ERA. Proctor was traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline in '07 and posted a 3.65 ERA in 83 games overall. He has never been effective since, posting 6.09 ERA in 47 appearances since '07, including a 6.35 ERA in 6 relief appearances for Atlanta in '10. He missed all of '09 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery.

Now, let's talk about Feliciano. He has gone where few others have, pitching in 86 or more games the last 3 seasons, including 92 appearances in '10. Feliciano certainly a different case than Marshall, Tekulve, Torres, and the other pitchers listed above. Feliciano pitches for one or two batters at a a time while Marshall and Tekulve pitched often pitched 3 innings in an appearance, and Torres and the other active or recently active players pitched an inning per appearance. It has been about 50-50 whether these relievers have been able to be durable and effective after pitching in so many games. The data apparently shows that signing pitchers who have appeared in 80 more games in a season can be a risky proposition. But, I'll say it again, Feliciano is a different case. He may appear in a lot of games, but there's not nearly the stress on his arm that there was on the arms of Marshall, Tekulve, Torres, and all the other guys because he pitches so many less innings. Feliciano is not a risk to sign as a free agent. He does not have so much stress on his arm that he will fall apart any season now. He'll collapse eventually of course (not too many pitchers didn't collapse at the end of their careers), but when he's old (pending a serious injury). The Yankees and several other teams have been talking to Feliciano. If any of the teams can agree to terms with him, then they should by all means sign him.

Who will be the next Yankee closer?

Mariano Rivera is closing in on a 1 or 2 year deal with the Yankees, but we all know that the contract that he's about to sign will probably be his last contract. It's certainly not too early now to think about the next Yankee closer. In this post I will talk about the major league options, and the minor league options for down the line.

After Joba Chamberlain was transitioned back to the bullpen entering this past season, you would have thought that he was being groomed to be the next Yankee closer. But, then he had a disappointing '10, posting a 4.40 ERA. Let's examine his stats. He went 3-4 with the aforementioned 4.40 ERA in 73 relief appearances and 71.2 IP. He struck out 77 and walked 22. He allowed 6 home runs. Based on those stats, excluding ERA, Joba should have had a good year. He posted a great 9.7 K/9 ratio and a good 2.8 BB/9, which comes out to a really good 3.50 K/BB ratio. His 6 homers allowed in 71.2 IP came out to a 0.8 HR/9 ratio, which is certainly acceptable, and he had 3 saves. But, you probably noticed what stat I omitted: hits allowed. He allowed 71 hits- basically a hit per inning. That's not ridiculously bad in general, but it certainly is bad for a reliever.To put that into perspective, Rivera allowed just a 5.9 H/9. Even Joba himself posted a 7.2 H/9 from '07 to '08, and if he gets back to that, he'll be a great reliever. Bottom line, Joba needs to get more swings and misses. He has a great fastball and he should be a strikeout pitcher, not a pitch-to-contact pitcher. So, to summarize, could Joba potentially put it all together? Yes, and if so, he would be a very good closer. But, right now, it's unclear whether that will happen.

If not Joba, the other pitcher currently in the Yankee bullpen that has a chance to be the next closer is David Robertson. The expectations were very high for Robertson in '10 after he posted a 3.30 ERA and a ridiculous 13.0 K/9 in '09. During the first half of '10, Robertson certainly disappointed many people. He posted a 5.46 ERA in 31 relief appearances. Why was his ERA so high? Partially because of too many hits allowed, just like Joba. He struck out 32 in 29.2 IP, but he allowed 36 hits, which amounts to a 11.1 H/9 that was much worse than Joba. But also Robertson had another problem: too many walks. He walked 17 batters, a ratio of around 5.2 batters per 9 innings. Despite his 9.7 K/9, Robertson walked so many guys that his K/BB ratio was just 1.88. But, in the second half, Robertson got himself together. He posted a great 2.27 ERA in 33 apperances. He walked 17 again, but struck out 39 for an improved 2.29 K/BB ratio. But, the biggest reason that Robertson turned around was that he allowed 6.5 hits per 9 innings, definitely a huge improvement. If Robertson pitches as well as he did in the second half of '10 in 2011 and going forward, he'll certainly be a great closer candidate. He walks a few too many batters, but his incredible strikeout rate (11.3 K/9 for his career) certainly makes up for it as long as he gives up less than a hit per inning. Right now, I think that Robertson is more likely to be the next Yankee closer than Joba.

It seems like a strong possibility that the Yankees will re-sign Kerry Wood if no team offers him a closer job. Could he potentially be the next Yankee closer? Picture this potential contract: 3 years, let's say 27 million dollars, with a vesting option in 2014 if he records 30 saves in 2013. But, do the Yankeees think that Wood will stay healthy. Wood went 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 31 K's in 24 relief apperances and 26 IP for the Yankees in '10. He did walk 18, which amounts to a very bad 6.2 BB/9, but he allowed just 14 hits for a ridiuclous 4.8 H/9 ratio. He also gave up just 1 home run. I don't think that the Yankees should sign Wood more than 2 years, but because of the 0.69 ERA in '10 for the Yankees, I had to bring him up.

Minor leaguers:

There's been talk that Andrew Brackman could be the next Yankee closer, but he has nixed that by succeeding as a starter in '10.

J.B. Cox, the former Texas Longhorns closer who at one point was projected to succeed Rivera, and gone through some problems on and off the field. He'll turn 26 in May, and he's at Double-A right now. He's not eliminated from the running, but I'd give him like a 1% chance of ever closing for the Yankees.

Ryan Pope functioned as Double-A Trenton's closer, going 4-6 with a 4.20 ERA, 17 saves, and 85 K's in 39 relief appearances along with 7 starts and 94.1 IP. He walked just 31, but his Achilles' heel was the home run- he gave up 10. He gave up 8.4 hits per 9 innings, but you just can't give up a homer every 9 innings (a 1.0 HR/9 ratio). The amount of homers he's given up doesn't bode well for him. Mariano Rivera gave up 10 home runs between August 12th, 2008 and September 19th, 2010. He'll turn 24 in May, so he has a little time to fix his homer problem. We'll see him in the big leagues within a couple of years, but probably never as a closer.

Always have to bring up Pat Venditte when I can. The switch-pitcher has 51 minor league saves including 6 at High-A Tampa in '10 along with a 1.73 ERA. Minor league hitters just can't seem to hit him, hence his 1.70 career ERA and 11.2 career K/9. He also has great control, as he has walked just 1.9 batters per 9 innings, and posted a ridiculous 6.06 K/BB ratio. He also doesn't allow any hits- just 6.5 per 9 innings, or hit anybody- just 2 hit batsmen in 3 minor league seasons. He's just been great. Will he be able to master major league hitters the same way? Well, first he has to master Double-A and Triple-A hitters. He's already 25 years old, so he better begin dominating them soon and get in the majors by 2012. When he does make the majors, I'll probably be one of 1.5 million bloggers doing posts on him. But, will he ever close for the Yankees? No chance. His upside is the best situational reliever ever, not a closer. He could potentially mow down major league hitters left and right (pun intended), but he just doesn't have the stuff to close games for the New York Yankees.

21 year old right-hander Chase Whitley worked as closer at Short Season-A (SS-A) Staten Island, posting a 1.45 ERA and 15 saves. He won't be the next Yankee closer, but he could potentially be the closer in 4 years (being part of the bullpen in 3 years) if both Joba and Robertson aren't good enough. He was drafted in 2010 and I did a short bio on him here: Analysis on all 50 Yankee draft picks
15. Chase Whitley, a 20 year old RHP from Troy was the Yankees' 15th round pick. He was Troy's closer. He had a decent fastball, 89-92 MPH, but he has 2 other pitches that are very good: a slider and a changeup. He averaged about a strikeout per inning in '10. He has a chance to be a pretty good reliever for the Yanks.

I'm not sure if he can function as a closer with a fastball that tops out at 92, but if his performance at Staten Island means anything, he has a chance.

Preston Claiborne debuted nicely at Staten Island in '10, going 1-2 with a 2.28 ERA, 2 saves, and 30 K's in 19 relief apperances and 23.2 IP. He walked 8 and allowed 20 hits. Possibly most impressive of all, he allowed no home runs. Claiborne also got a brief taste of High-A Tampa to finish the year, going 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA in 5 relief apperances. I wrote this about him in the above post:

7. In the 17th round, the Yankees drafted another RHP, Preston Claiborne from Tulane. He's been a reliever his whole college career. He showed good control at Tulane in '09 (29 K's, 12 walks), and pitched both as a long reliever and short reliever. With that Alrfredo Aceves-like versatility, we might see him in the Yankee bullpen at some point.

Whitley beat out Claiborne to be Staten Island's closer, but Claiborne definitely has some value. Maybe they'll both be in the bullpen in a few seasons. I doubt Claiborne will be the closer, though. Still, if Claiborne becomes Alfredo Aceves 2.0 (minor the injuries), the Yankees will definitely be happy.

Thomas Kahnle, another 2010 draftee, had a great pro debut for Staten Island, posting a 0.56 ERA in 11 relief apperances. He struck out 25 and walked just 5 in 16 innings. Those are all ridiculous stats. He was unhittable. And you thought that he was unhittable based on the stats above. No. He allowed 3 hits. 3 hits! That's a ratio of 1.7 hits per 9 innings. Wow.This guy might be something special. I wrote this about him in that post above about the Yankees' 2010 drafted players:

5. In the 5th round, the Yankees drafted 20 year old RHP Thomas Kahnle from Lynn University in Divison 2. Kahnle is going to be a reliever for the Yanks. He has a lot of potential, as evidenced by his playoff performance as a freshman. He was awarded the Most Outstanding Player award for the NCAA National Tournament and the South Region Tournament. (I haven't had this confirmed, but I'm sure the NCAA National Tournament is Division 2. Note that the Division 1 tournament is the College World Series.) The Yankees can never have enough good relievers, and hopefully Kahnle will be one of them.

The sky is the limit for this kid. He turned 21 in August. We'll see him in the majors within a couple of years, and I would not be surprised if one day, he's the Yankee closer.

Realistically, Joba or Robertson will be the next Yankee closer. But, theycould just be keeping the seat warm for one of these other guys. Although it was a very small sample size, I think that Kahnle really is that good. I think he'll end up being the Yankee closer in 2014 or 2015.