Can Montero play left field?

Yankees top prospect Jesus Montero has been dealing with a bit of a groin problem, but it's hard not to like his current stats at Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He's hitting .375 with 4 doubles, a homer, 4 RBI, a .484 SLG, and amazingly a .369 OBP (no walks, out trying to stretch once) in 15 games. He's going to need to get back into games, get his OBP up, and show some more power, but we know he's capable of doing all of those. How long can the Yankees keep this guy in the minors? But where could they play him? Russell Martin is destroying the AL to the tune of a .290/.364/.594 line. Jorge Posada at DH has just a .131/.231/.391 line, but he has 6 home runs, and the Yankees aren't going to easily bench a player who's making 13.1 million dollars this season. 1st base isn't an option with Mark Teixeira there, so all the regular positions that catchers play are out of the question. But, if Montero is still hitting .370 in a month, how could the Yankees possibly keep him in the minors? What could the Yankees do?

Well, you have to at least give a look to the left field and right field positions. Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher both had nice games Thursday, but they're still hitting .169/.229/.385 and .237/.351/.303 respectively. Gardner has 7 extra-base hits, 3 homers, and driven in 6 runs, but he's been successful on just 4 of 7 stolen base attempts, while Swisher has just 3 extra base hits, 1 homer, although he has driven in 12 runs. Couldn't Montero be better than either of them right now? Who in the world wouldn't think that Montero could at least put up at least a .275/.340/.400 line in the majors right now? Gardner and Swisher are nice players, but how could you leave one of the best hitters in professional baseball stranded at Triple-A? Brian Cashman could probably trade either Gardner or Swisher within a couple of days. Why won't he?

First of all, there's the obvious question of defense. Gardner is the best defensive left fielder in baseball, and replacing him with Montero would be an enormous defensive downgrade. Swisher has worked hard defensively, and he had a positive UZR in 2010 (and so far in 2011). Even replacing Swisher with Montero would be a big downgrade defensively. Or would it? Earlier in Yankee history, the Yankees had another case where they had two good catchers. From the mid-1950's to the mid-1960's, the Yankees had both Yogi Berra and Elston Howard. So what did they do? They had both Berra and Howard play some left field and right field. Berra played 260 career games in the outfield while Howard played 265. And while Berra and Howard weren't Gold Glove-caliber defensively, they certainly were good enough. Berra posted a .972 Fld% and a 2.08 RF/9 in 149 career games in left field. The league averages were a .973 Fld% and a 2.03 RF/9. He certainly was an average fielder in left. In 166 games in right, Berra wasn't as good, posting just a .966 Fld% and a 1.65 RF/9 compared to the league averages of .974 and 1.97, but even in that case, he survived defensively. Howard was pretty solid in 228 games in left, posting a .982 Fld% and a 1.98 RF/9 compared to the league averages of .979 and 2.13. (Keep in mind that Berra and Howard did not play the outfield in all the same seasons.) Howard played just 42 games in right, but he actually was a plus defender, posting a .987 Fld% and a 2.33 RF/9 compared to the league average compared to the league averages of .979 and 1.99. Could Montero put up similar numbers?

Even if he could, Montero would have to start learning the new position, and that could take away from his focus on hitting, which wouldn't be good for him in the long run. Also, Gardner and Swisher play important roles for the Yankees. Gardner is the Yankees' only legitimate 30-stolen base threat (although if he gets on base, he could steal 50), and Swisher is great in the clubhouse, so the Yankees shouldn't panic and hinder Montero's development. Unless Posada or Martin gets hurt, the Yankees should allow Montero to keep working defensively at catcher in Triple-A until September, when he'll get his first cup of coffee in the big leagues. Then, next year, he'll be ready to take over at DH and backup catcher when Posada retires and use his bat to the best of his ability. Yankee fans, don't panic about the struggles of Gardner and Swisher.

Will Jesus Montero be a servicable major league catcher?

Everyone loves 2011 rookie Jesus Montero's bat, but not everyone is sure about his defense. Montero will likely be a Yankee for a long time, but will he be the starting catcher for the Yankees for that period of time as well? No matter what your opinion is off Jorge Posada and his defense, he was starting catcher for the Yankees for 13 seasons. That's certainly a long time. Will Montero even be the starting catcher for 5 years?

Let's talk about offensive-minded catchers. Posada and Jason Varitek have played their whole careers under that category. Everyone wants that Johnny Bench or Joe Mauer who does it all- both win Gold Gloves and win those homer titles or batting titles. But, are we happy with those Carlton Fisk's and Mike Piazza's who maybe will win one Gold Glove if they're lucky (Fisk was certainly lucky his rookie year), but will be a feared hitter who keeps winning Silver Sluggers. What's interesting is that the best catchers do both. Neither Fisk and Piazza won a batting title or a homer title. Do you know the only offensive categories that Piazza ever led the league in? Well at first glance at Piazza's page on baseball-reference.com, just OPS+ in '95 and '97 and double playsg grouded into in '99. Sure, upon further review Piazza led the NL in offensive WAR in 1997 and AB per homer in '95, but wow. When we think of Mike Piazza, we think of one of the greatest catchers to play the game (if not the incident with Roger Clemens). How could he lead the league in so few offensive categories? Without even going into more complicated stats, Mauer has led the AL in batting 3 times, OBP once, OPS once, OPS+ once, and even sac flies once. And he has a lot of his career still ahead of him! The fans like offensive catchers. You get mad when they mess up defensively, but you love their homers and other big hits. But, you'd much rather have a two-way catcher. They play well defensively AND get those big hits. Montero is obviously an offensive catcher. Do the Yankees have a two-way catcher coming up? I want to say Austin Romine, but he apparently can't catch the ball. Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy might be good defensive catchers eventually, but they're quite a while away. The Yankees, at least for the next few seasons, will be stuck with an offensive catcher again.

But, the Yankees have had a history of offensive catchers. From Bill Dickey to Yogi Berra to Elston Howard the Yankees have had a ton of offensive catchers in their history. Why not have another one? How cbad an Montero be? Let's compare Montero's minor league stats to Posada's. If Montero's stats are as good or better, maybe he could be a fringe-average big league catcher like Posada has been. Posada posted a .977 Fld% in the minors, a 6.9 range factor per game ratio, 83 passed balls, and a 29% CS% in 6 minor league seasons. Montero has posted a .994 Fld% in the minors with a range factor per game ratio of 7.75, 41 passed balls, and a 23 CS% in 4 minor league seasons. Posada has done much better in the majors, posting a .992 Fld%, a 6.80 range factor per game ratio, 142 passed balls, and a 28% CS% in 16 seasons. Could Montero make that type of jump? The Yankees believe that Montero will be a serviceable catcher. He better be.

Matt Kemp to the Yankees?

The rumor is that the Dodgers will trade CF Matt Kemp over the offseason. Could the Yankees make a run at him?

Every rumor has to start with the Yankees. Kemp doesn't appear to be a fit, but the Yankees could consider trading Nick Swisher. Swisher has been a great personality in the clubhouse, and he does have power, but there's no way the Yankees wouldn't at least consider including him in a trade for a talent like Kemp. Kemp only had 3 less homers than Swisher's 29 in '10, and the same amount of RBI (89). Plus, Kemp has logged 168 games in RF, posting a .973 Fld%, but a league-average .982 Fld% in 70 combined games in '08 and '09. He could be OK in right defensively. The Yankees would then have a very fast outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Kemp. (Before anyone asks, a Gardner-Granderson-Crawford outfield would not work because they have a combined 0 games in RF. But, if Swisher is traded, Jayson Werth could definitely play RF, since it's been his primary position since '07.) So, what could the Dodgers get in return for Kemp. Well, pretty much anything they wanted besides Jesus Montero. My guess would be a package of something like Swisher, C Austin Romine, and OF Melky Mesa (a player who could eventually be a Kemp-like player if he pans out) for Kemp and OF Jamie Hoffmann (back to the Yankees after being returned after the Rule 5 draft). Let's analyze this theoretical trade.

Swisher had an all-star season in '10, hitting .288 with 33 doubles, 29 homers, 89 RBI, 91 runs, and a .359 OBP in 150 games. He posted a slightly-above average .986 Fld% in RF. He's certainly a good player. Do the Yankees want to trade him, even for Kemp?

Romine, the Yankees' 2nd best catching prospect besides Montero, had a decent season in '10, hittting .268 with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, 61 runs, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. He posted a .994 Fld% at catcher, and a 23% CS%. He allowed 6 passed balls. Although those sould like good defensive stats, I've heard that he has had trouble handling good fastballs. That is definitely a problem. If you're worried that Montero may never be a full-time catcher, Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy are coming. The Yankees really don't need Romine.

Mesa, the other Melky, has been an interesting prospect. After hitting a .221 in his first 3 minor league seasons at Rookie ball and SS-A ball, He burst on to the scene at age 22 at Low-A in '09, hitting just .225, but with 24 doubles, 20 homers, 74 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 18 SB, and a .308 OBP in 133 games. In '10, he did even better, hitting .260 with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 81 runs, 31 SB, and a reasonable .338 OBP in 121 games. He owns just a .975 career Fld% in CF, but he posted a .985 Fld% there in '10. He would have been a good prospect if it weren't for those 3 lost seasons. Still, at 23 (he will turn 24 in January), he has a little time to develop. If he could put up his '09 and '10 numbers in the majors in let's say 2013, he could be a Matt Kemp-like player. It seems like a pretty good deal for the Dodgers if they get a former All-Star in Swisher, and a likely All-Star in Romine in addition to a possible Matt Kemp-esque player who if he does get to that level will be an All-Star.

Hoffmann had a nice season at Triple-A hitting .310 with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 74 RBI, 91 runs, 17 SB, and a .369 OBP in 139 games. He is a tremendous defensive outfielder, as he posted a great .996 Fld% in CF with 5 outfield assists. You would think that the Dodgers would want to keep him, but he's 26, and didn't even earn a September call-up in '10. Seems like trade bait to me.

Kemp, a 26 year old righty hitter, appeared in all 162 games for the Dodgers, hitting .249 with 25 doubles, 28 homers, 89 RBI, 6 triples, 150 hits, 82 runs, 19 SB (15 CS), a .310 OBP, a below-average .985 Fld% in CF, and just 3 outfield assists. Kemp is what he is. He has power and speed, but not a tremendous amount of either. Still, any player who could potentially put up a 30-30 season is a good player. Kevin Long could maybe fix his swing, and the Yankees could have far and away the best outfield in the majors, possibly an outfield that could all 3 be All-Stars in the same season. Picture that. As a Yankee fan, do you want the Yankees to trade for Kemp now? Is it a longshot? Maybe, but there's a chance. A chance of the trade happening and a chance that something special will happen in the Yankee outfield.

Yankees decline options on Berkman, Johnson

The Yankees have declined their options on designated hitters Lance Berkman and Nick Johnson. What does that mean for 2011?

I think that there are 2 possibilites: either that the Yankees will use a combination of Jesus Montero and Jorge Posada at catcher and DH, or the Yankees are about to sign a big name free agent to be the DH. Let's go through both possibilities.

Jessus Montero is ready. As I said in my recent post "Introducing the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero", Montero is a just a great hitter and an improving defensive catcher. He overcame a terrible start at Triple-A to still put up his usual great year. Posada certainly isn't the player he once was, but he still hit 18 homers in '10. Maybe he could hit 25 or more homers if he catches much less. But, to advocate against it, he hit a homer every 25.5 at-bats as a DH versus every 20.77 at-bats as a catcher. But, since the Yankees have to have Posada on the roster (he's not just going to retire with another year on his contract, and he's untradable), they might as well DH him as often as possible so they don't have to deal with his terrible defense (.986 Fld%, 15% CS%). It will be a nice send-off for Posada, and a nice experience for Montero.

Or, the Yankees could look to the free agent market for an answer at DH. Montero will be in the big leagues in '10, so he will be the starter at catcher, with Posada backing him up and playing some DH, and the free agent playing mostly DH, with some games at his natural position. Let's look at some options for that potential free agent.

Adam Dunn: Dunn is a 40+ homer who plays terrible defense. He hit .260 with 38 homers and 103 RBI in '10 and a .267 with 38 and 105 RBI in '09. The previous 4 years before that, he hit exactly 40 homers every year. He's a very consistent hitter. Just how bad is he defensively? He did post a just a slightly below average Fld% (.990) at 1B in '10! Well, in '09, he posted a terrible .986 Fld% at 1B, a terrrible .953 Fld% in LF, and a disastrous .935 Fld% in RF. He can play the field if neccesary, but it's better to have him DH. Of course, he will command a big contract. Also, what will you do with Posada if Dunn is playing every day? I don't think Dunn is a good option.

Johnny Damon: Damon said that he would want to come back to the Yankees, and he may have a chance. After a bad year, the Yankees might be one of a few teams willing to give him even semi-regular playing time. Damon hit just .271 in '10, with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 51 RBI, 11 SB, 81 runs, and a .355 OBP in 145 games with the TIgers. The Yankees could use Damon as a backup outfielder and a part-time DH along with Posada. He did hit .417 as a substitute player in the middle of a game in '10. Also, Damon got just 8 million dollars from the Tigers after hitting .282 with 28 homers and 82 RBI in '09. He could be a huge bargain for the Yankees. I'm not sure if it's a great fit, but it could work.

Hideki Matsui: Would Matsui come back to the Yankees? He had a pretty good year with the Angels in '10 at age 36, hitting .274 with 21 homers and 84 RBI. But, would he be OK with moving down in the batting order? Even if Matsui became the regular DH for the Yankees again, Posada would take away some DH at-bats and he would hit 6th or 7th. I don't think could work.

Jim Thome: Thome had a pretty good year in '10, with Thome hitting .283 with 25 homers and 59 RBI at age 39. He coul command a relatively big contract, at least for a player his age. He has some pop, but would he be a part time player on the Yankees if another team offers him a starting DH job? I would seriously doubt it.

None of the free agents are a great option, and of course, before possibly signing any of these free agents, the Yankees have to work on re-signing Jeter and Rivera, and signing Cliff Lee (or trading for some other top-flight pitcher). That's a pretty a pretty big obstacle, so I think the Yankees will do the 1st option: Montero and Posada and catcher and DH. With that being said, the Yankees will put their best possible team out there. If Cashman sees a fit in one of the free agents, he won't be afraid to sign him and greatly reduce Posada's at-bats. I still think the Yankees will go with Montero at catcher, Posada at catcher and DH, and a guy like Marcus Thames getting some DH at-bats as well.

Introducing the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero

Jesus Montero will win the AL Rookie of the Year. Here's why.

Let's start with Montero himself. He has great career minor league stats. He hit .326 with 34 doubles, 17 homers, 87 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 132 games for Low-A Charleston in '08. He did even better between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton in '09, hitting .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games. Those 2 seasons proved that he was a great prospect. But his 2010 season proved he will be a great major leaguer. His stats on the year were really good for Triple-A Scranton. He hit .289 with 34 doubles, 21 homers, 75 RBI, and a .353 OBP in 123 games. Those look like Montero's usual great stats, but they're differerent. Montero started off very slowly, hitting just .247 with 2 homers in April. But, if you thought that was bad, Montero had possibly the worst month in his pro career in May, hitting just .217 with only 1 homer. Montero was going through a tough stretch- he was facing adversity. And, he got through it. He hit .283 with 3 homers in June, showing flashes of his usual self. Then, he broke out the rest of the year. He hit .342 with 5 homers (and a ridiculous .441 OBP) in July, .330 with 7 homers in August, and .370 with 3 homers in just 6 games in September. Montero is a great player who can overcome adversity at the plate.

Also, Montero has really improved defensively at catcher. He posted a .992 Fld% and threw out a decent 23% of attempted base stealers. It's hard to tell whether he'll ever be a full-time catcher (like Jorge Posada has been the past several years), but he could certainly catch a good 80 or 90 games for the Yankees in '10. Posada could catch most of the others.

Speaking of Posada, he has really declined the past couple of years, as expected by an old catcher. Posada had the best year of his career at age 35 in '07, hitting .337 with 42 doubles, 20 homers, 90 RBI, and an incredible .426 OBP in 144 games. Then in '08, he got hurt, and hit .268 with 3 homers and 22 RBI in just 51 games. But, Posada got right back on track in '09, hitting .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 111 games. Then, Posada had a bad year in '10, hitting just .248 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, just 57 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 120 games. Don't even get me started defensively, as he has declined from a .994 Fld% and a 24% CS% in '07 to a .986 Fld% and just a 15% CS% in '10. Posada doesn't have much left. His contract is up after the 2011 season, during which he will turn 40. Posada's goodbye to baseball could be as a part-time catcher and DH (still getting 400 at-bats) with Montero being the nearly full-time catcher. Francisco Cervelli would also fit in as a backup catcher when Posada needs a day off.

Cervelli. He's so clutch, but so bad. He hit an OK .271 in '10, but with no homers. No homers! He did hit 11 doubles and 3 triples, drive in 38 runs, and post a .359 OBP in 93 games. He hit .316 with runners in scoring position, getting 25 hits for 37 RBI. He even hit .381 with 24 RBI with 2 outs and runners on scoring position. Where he really did his damage was with the bases loaded. In those situations, he hit .545 with 20 of his RBI. Cervelli was so clutch that he had more hits with runners on (40) than with the bases empty (32). He hit .290 with runners on and .250 with no one on base. He gets clutch hits with runners on base, but in pretty much every other situation he's terrible. Now, let's talk about his defense. He calls a great game and all that, but he was terrible defensively in '10. He posted just a .980 Fld% (worse than Posada!) with just a 14% CS% (also worst than Posada)! He's just bad. He did only allow 2 passed balls, and that is very good. Still, he barely deserves to be in the majors defensively and is just slightly better offensively. He's in no position to take away at-bats from Montero. Maybe he'll catch 30 games in '10.

So, Posada declining, Cervelli performing below the league average, and Montero overcoming adversity and just being great amounts to Montero getting most of the at-bats at catcher. And, since Montero is just such a great hitter, my prediction is that he will win the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year.

Should the Yankees have traded for Lee?

The Rangers acquired Cliff Lee in exchange for Justin Smoak and 3 other prospects. The Mariners thought it was a good offer, even better than the Yankees' offer of Jesus Montero and 3 other prospects. They must have thought that Smoak will be a star. Were they wrong?

Smoak was the 11th overall pick in the loaded first round of the 2008 MLB draft. There obviously were busts (most notably #1 overall pick Tim Beckham), but the players that have panned out are Pedro Alvarez (#2 overall), Brian Matusz (#4), Buster Posey (#5), and Gordon Beckham (#8). Ike Davis (#18) was drafted after Smoak. I realize that it's not completely fair to compare Smoak to the players, but let's do it anyway.

It took Alvarez just 1.5 seasons to get to the majors. He hit .288 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 126 games between Low-A Lynchburg and Double-A Altoona in '09. After hitting .277 with 15 doubles, 13 homers, 53 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 66 games for Triple-A Indianapolis, Alvarez was called up to the majors. Alvarez had a pretty good year after being called up on June 16th, hitting just .256, but with 21 doubles, 16 homers, and 64 RBI. His OBP was .326. He does need work defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at 3rd base. He will be just 23 in '11, so he will have time to develop into a better player both offensively and defensively at the major league level. Alvarez is a nice young player who will be a cornerstone of the Pirates for years to come.

Brian Matusz made it to the majors in under 1 season. After a dominating minor league season in '09 between Low-A Frederick and Double-A, Matusz made it to the majors at age 22. Matusz went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 121 K's in 19 starts and 113 innings in the minors, and 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 38 K's in 8 starts and and 44.2 IP in the majors. Matusz improved in '10, going 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA and 143 K's in 32 starts and 175.2 IP. Matusz was just 4-12 with a 5.28 ERA on August 13th, but went undefeated the rest of the year, going 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 8 starts. The Orioles won all 8 of those games. Matusz really has a promising future. Pretty soon he will be the Orioles' ace.

Buster Posey dominated the minors for parts of 3 seasons before making it to the majors at age 22. Unlike Alvarez and Matusz, Posey signed soon enough to play in '08. He played in 10 games between Rookie ball and SS-A Salem Keizer, hitting .351 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, and a .467 OBP. It was a sign of things to come. Posey had another great season in '09, hitting .325 with 31 doubles, 18 homers, 80 RBI, 84 runs, and a .416 OBP in 115 games between High-A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. But, Posey had 14 passed balls at catcher, so he began '10 at Fresno. He hit very well once again, hitting .349 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 32 RBI, and a .442 OBP in 47 games while only allowing one passed ball. He was then promoted to the majors, and is a candidate to win NL Rookie of the Year. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He posted a .991 Fld% at catcher, throwing out 37% of attempted base stealers, and allowing just 1 passed ball. He is a very talented player who will be the catcher for the Giants for a long time.

Gordon Beckham took just 1 full season in the minors to make the majors at age 22. After signing early enough to play in '08, Beckham hit .310 with 2 doubles, 3 homers, and 8 RBI, and a .365 OBP in 14 games at Low-A Kannapolis. It was a stepping stone to a great season. He hit .326 with 23 doubles, 4 homers, 25 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 45 games between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte before being promoted to the majors. He did OK in the majors, hitting .270 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 63 RBI, and a .347 OBP in 103 games. But, he posted a below-average .952 Fld% at 3rd base. He was the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year and finished 5th in the real voting. He had a bit of a sophmore slump in '10, hitting .252 with 25 doubles, 9 homers, 49 RBI, and a .317 OBP in 131 games. Part of the problem was that he was moved to 2nd base, where he posted a below average .981 Fld%. But, he hit .320 from July 20th to the end of the year. Whatever his problem was, he fixed it. He should be a White Sox' infielder for a long time. Despite his sub-par year, I wouldn't be too surprised if the White Sox lock him up long term.

Davis needed 1.5 full seasons in the minors before making the majors at age 23. He signed the earliest among this group, and ended up playing 58 games for SS-A Brooklyn and was a disappointment. He hit just .256 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 17 RBI, and a .326 OBP. But, that was the last time that Davis was a disappointment. He hit .298 in '09 between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton with 31 doubles, 20 homers, 71 RBI, and a .381 OBP in 114 games. After just 10 games for Triple-A Buffalo in '10 in which he hit .364 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 4 RBI, and a .500 OBP, Davis was promoted to the majors. He had a great rookie season, hitting .264 with 33 doubles, 19 homers, 71 RBI, and a .341 OBP in 147 games. He was right at the league average with a .993 Fld% at 1st base. I'll make a bold statement and say that he's the next David Wright. He'll be a fixture at 1st base for the Mets.

Well, I've gone through everybody else. So, how good is Smoak?

In his first taste of pro ball in '08, Smoak hit .304 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 6 RBI in 14 games at Low-A Clinton. He didn't make any errors in 10 games at 1st base. It was definitely a nice showing, albeit in such a short period of time.

In '09, Smoak worked his way all the way up to Triple-A. After hitting .667 with 2 homers and 5 RBI at Rookie ball, Smoak was promoted to Double-A Frisco where he hit .328 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, and a .449 OBP in 50 games. It was a great showing, and he appeared to be on the fast track to the majors. He was so good at Frisco that he was brought up to Triple-A Oklahoma City, but there he struggled. In 54 games, Smoak hit just .244 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, and 23 RBI. But, Smoak did post a .363 OBP,which was great when considering his Low BA. But, he was just 23 years old, so he could adjust to Triple-A in '10.

Did Smoak make that adjustment? Well, after 15 games at Oklahoma City, Smoak hit .300 with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 5 RBI before being rushed to the majors. Smoak had his moments with the Rangers, but mostly he struggled. He hit just .209, but with 10 doubles, 8 homers, and 34 RBI. He posted a .318 OBP. Then of course, he was traded to the Mariners in the Lee trade. He remained with the Mariners from July 10th to July 29th and struggled mightily. He hit just .159 with 1 double, 2 homers, and 5 RBI in 16 games. To compound the problem, he posted just a .169 OBP, walking once and striking out 23 skill. After that terrible showing, Smoak was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma. He did just OK for Tacoma, hitting .271 with 7 doubles, 7 homers, and 25 RBI, although he did post a .377 OBP. But, somehow the work at Triple-A helped him, and he was a different player when he came back to the majors on September 18th. He hit .340 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 14 games from September 18th to October 3rd. Overall in '10, Smoak hit .218 with 14 doubles, 13 homers, 48 RBI, and a .307 OBP in 100 games. It was a disappointment, but the Mariners hope his great finish to the year will carry over into '11. He will have 1 major league season under his belt (he will be 24), and the Mariners hope that experience will jump-start a great career.

Among the others, Smoak is certainly not the best right now. Posey is far and away the top player in this group, then Davis, Alvarez, and Beckham in that order before Smoak. But, does he have the ability to be a great player? Well, the Mariners must think so. If he really deserved the Teixeira comparisons he was getting while on the Rangers, then he will be a great player.

Will the Lee trade end up being a good trade for the Mariners? There are 3 other players that Seattle acquired, but the trade will end up being graded based on Smoak's performance. If he never becomes a star, it was a bad trade. As of now, if I were a Mariners fan, I would have wished for Lee to be traded to the Yankees for Montero.

Is it time for Montero in the Bronx?

The Yankees bench has seemed a bit short this season. Outside of Marcus Thames, the Yankees never have a good hitter to come off the bench. Should the Yankees call up top prospect Jesus Montero? He has been known as a great hitter, and can also be the 3rd catcher on the team. There have been times where the Yankees have pinch-hit for Cervelli with Posada on days that Posada initially got the day off, but they couldn't pinch-run for Posada because he was the last catcher left on the roster. Right now, Ramiro Pena is the 3rd catcher, and he has never played a single professional game at catcher in his life. Would it help to have Montero on the roster? Yes, certainly. But, should he be called up right after the All-Star Break?

Jesus Montero, the top prospect in the Yankees organization according to Baseball America, undoubtedly has the potential to b e a great hitter. In '08 with Low-A Charleston, Montero hit .326 with 34 doubles, 17 homers, 87 RBI, and a .376 OBP in 132 games. In '09, he hit .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. But, Montero hasn't done anywhere near as well at Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre, hitting just .252 with 19 doubles, 7 homers, 37 RBI, and a .328 OBP in 79 games. Why promote a .252 hitter to the majors? None of the players promoted by the Yankees to the majors this year who didn't make the team out of spring training have hit under .271 in the minors this season. But, Montero will definitely hit at some point and he'll have to adjust to the majors just like he's been adjusting to Triple-A. He's certainly a better hitter than Ramiro Pena or Kevin Russo. Do the Yankees really need two utility infielders? He has even done pretty well defensively this year, posting a .992 Fld% and a 21% CS% despite not being known as a good defensive catcher! Still, the Yankees will not promote Montero until September at the earliest. He is used to being an everyday player in the minors. But, that stop the Yankees from calling up Curtis, Huffman, Russo, and all these other guys! Well, Montero is a different case. He has no versatility. All he can do is catch and DH. In contrast, Curtis and Huffman play right field and left field, and Russo plays 2nd base, 3rd base, SS, and left field. But, the Yankees still called up Juan Miranda who only plays 1st base and DH! But, that was a different situation, as not only Nick Johnson was hurt, as he is now, but also Curtis Granderson was hurt. The Yankees don't have an open roster spot because of an injury that would allow them to call up Montero without sending someone down. An injury could change things, but at this point, it doesn't make any sense for the Yankees to call up Jesus Montero.

Should the Yankees have traded for Lee?

Just looking at this title of this post, you're wondering what the heck I'll walking about. Didn't the Mariners call off the trade, not the Yankees? Let me explain. The trade was all but settled. Cliff Lee to the Yanks for minor leaguers Jesus Montero, a catcher, David Adams, a 2nd baseman, and Zach McAllister, a RHP. Apparently, that deal fell through because Adams is on the 7-day DL with a high ankle sprain and the Mariners were worried. The Yankees offered to switch Adams out for a different prospect (I would guess minor league INF Eduardo Nunez), but the Mariners wanted another pitching prospect also (Ivan Nova or Jeremy Bleich) and the price was too high. The Yankees pulled out of the trade. Then, the Rangers swooped in and acquired Lee and reliever Mark Lowe in exchange for Justin Smoak, a rookie 1st baseman, and minor league RHP's Josh Lueke and RHP Blake Beavan, along with minor league 2nd baseman Matthew Lawson.

Let's look at the players that the Yankee would have traded to Seattle for Lee. Should they pulled the trigger on the trade?

Lee has been ridiculous this year, going 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 89 K's in 13 starts and 103.2 IP. He has walked just 6 batters, and has 5 complete games including 1 shutout. He has been incredible.

Montero is hitting .253 at Triple-A Scranton with 19 doubles, 6 homers, 35 RBI, and a .329 OBP in 77 games. In '09, he hit .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. His '09 season solidified him as a top prospect. In fact, Montero was considered the top prospect in the Yankees' system enering this year by Baseball America. Montero, just 20 years old, is not considered to have a future as a catcher in the big leagues. By staying within the Yankee system, he remains the Yankees' DH of the future if nothing else.

Adams is hitting .309 at Double-A Trenton with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, 5 SB, and a .393 OBP in 39 games. In '09, Adams hit .286 with 40 doubles, 7 homers, 75 RBI, 8 triples, 11 SB, and a .373 OBP in 132 games between Low-A Charleston and High-A Trenton. That season solidified Adams as the Yankees' 22nd best prospect in their system entering this year according to Baseball America. Adams, a third round pick by the Yankees in '08, is considered to be a decent defender. Adams was definitely an X-factor in this trade because after the Mariners made the Yankees pull him out of the trade because of his injury, the Mariners asked for 2 players to replace him. Adams, already 23 years old, doesn't seem to be young enough to have a future as a starter in the Yankee infield.

McAllister has gone 7-5 at Triple-A Scranton with a 4.45 ERA and 57 K's in 17 starts and 95 IP. He was the Yankees 5th rated prospect by Baseball America entering this year after going 7-5 with a 2.23 ERA and 96 K's in 22 starts and 121 IP for Double-A Trenton in '09. McAllister, 22 years old, was a 3rd round draft pick out of high school in '06. He certainly has a chance for a spot in the Yankee rotation at some point.

Nunez is hitting .304 at Triple-A Scranton, with 19 doubles, 3 homers, 40 RBI, 18 SB, and a .352 OBP in 86 games. He was the Yankees' 14th best prospect by Baseball America entering this year after hitting .322 with 26 doubles, 9 homers, 55 RBI, 19 SB, and a .349 OBP in 123 games for Double-A Trenton in '09. Nunez, who recently turned 23, is a solid defender who has played mostly SS in the minors. He also has experience at 2nd base and 3rd base. Nunez is probably going to be a utility player for the Yankees in a year or two.

Nova has gone 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 73 K's in 16 starts and 97.2 IP for Triple-A Scranton. In a brief major league call-up, he made 2 relief appearances, giving up no runs on 4 hits in 3 IP. He was the Yankees' 16th best prospect entering this year by Baseball America after going 6-8 with a 3.68 ERA and 90 K's in 24 starts and 139.1 IP between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton. He will also be competing for the Yankee rotation in a year or two.

Bleich, a 23 year old lefty, has gone 3-2 at Double-A Trenton this year, with a 4.79 ERA and 26 K's in 8 starts and 41.1 IP. He was the Yankees' 9th best prospect entering this year by Baseball America after going 9-10 with a 4.86 ERA and 116 K's in 27 starts and 144.1 IP between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. He has good stuff, but has had some control problems. He seems at least 3 years away from having any impact in the majors.

So, in the original trade, the Yankees would have given up their best, 5th best, and 22nd best prospects in exchange for a perennial Cy Young candidate. That sounds like a fair trade. But, when you take out the 22nd prospect and put in the 14th best prospect and the 9th or 16th best prospect, it would seem that the Yankees would be giving away too much. Maybe pulling out of the trade could be a good move by the Yankees. They can keep their prospects and sign Lee this offseason.

Who will be the next Yankee catcher after Posada?

Jorge Posada is 38 years old and his contract expires after 2011. He will certainly retire after that contract is up. Is it too soon to talk about the next Yankee catcher?

Let's start with Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli is currently 24 years old. Cervelli never put up good minor league stats as his career high for homers in a season was just 3. But, he has done well so far in the majors. In '09 he hit .298 with 4 doubles, 1 homer, 11 RBI, and a .309 OBP. He posted a .995 Fld% at catcher with an incredible 43% CS%. He's gotten off to a great offensive start in '10, hitting .400 with 1 double, 0 homers, 12 RBI, and a .481 OBP. He has posted an 1.000 Fld% an catcher, but he has not thrown out an attempted base stealer yet in 6 tries. That CS% of 0% will definitely improve. Cervelli has filled in very well when Posada has been hurt, but could he be a full-time catcher?

Next, let's talk about the high-profile catching prospect Jesus Montero. He is currently 20 years old. He has done well in the minors the past few years. In '09 between High-A and Double-A, Montero hit .337 with 25 doubles, 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a .389 OBP in 92 games. He posted a .996 Fld% at catcher with a 20% CS%. But, Montero is struggling at Triple-A right now, hitting just .234 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 11 RBI, and a .294 OBP in 25 games. He has posted a .989 Fld% with a 25% CS%. The thing was Montero is that a lot of people consider him a CINO- a catcher in name only. Those people believe that Montero, who is 6 feet, 4 inches tall, has no future at catcher and will move to another position and/or be a DH. Theoretically, Montero could be the Yankee DH with Cervelli or Romine (who I will mention next) at catcher. So, will he even be a catcher when he reaches the majors? Montero reminds me of a former catcher who really jumped around and played every position, B.J. Surhoff, who is 6 feet, 1 inch tall. Surhoff started as a catcher, but during his career ended up playing every position other than pitcher. Surhoff had a pretty successful career, hitting .282 with 188 homers. But, Surhoff had a dimension to his game that Montero definitely does not have, as he had 141 stolen bases during his career including 21 in 1988 when he was still primarily a catcher. Surhoff's best overall year was in 1999 with Baltimore, when he hit .308 with 38 doubles, 28 homers, 107 RBI, 5 SB, and a .347 OBP. Those numbers are resonable for Montero (besides maybe the SB's). Again, Surhoff was a good player, but considering Montero's potential, the Yankee might want to be more careful with him than the Brewers were with Surhoff. After hitting .332 at Low-A in 1985 and .308 in Triple-A in '86, Surhoff was promoted to the majors and didn't play in the minors until 1994 when he played 8 games in the minors (maybe it was a rehab assignment). I hope the Yankees know what happened to Surhoff and will be a little more careful with Montero.

Austin Romine is another Yankee catching prospect, but he's not considered a CINO. He's currently 21 years old. Romine has done pretty well in the minors. In '09 at High-A, he hit .276 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 72 RBI, and a .322 OBP in 118 games. He posted just a .984 Fld% at catcher including 11 passed balls, but he also threw out 30% of attempted base stealers. Romine has gotten off to a hot start in '10, hitting .326 through 24 games at Double-A, with 9 doubles, 3 homers, 18 RBI, and a .396 OBP. He has posted a .994 Fld% at catcher and a 19% CS%. Romine might be the best candidate to be the next Yankee catcher, but he hasn't played above Double-A yet.

Cervelli might not be able to be more than a backup and Montero might not be a catcher when he reaches the majors. Assuming all 3 have a future with the Yankees, I would say that in 2012, Cervelli will probably start the year as the starter, Montero would be the DH, and Romine would start in the minors and come up to the majors to become the starter if necessary.