What does the Soriano signing mean for Joba?

As soon as the Yankees signed ex-Rays closer to a three year deal (with two out-clauses), everybody started asking about Joba Chamberlain. Should they trade him? Should they made him a starter again? Let's figure out what the Yankees should do with Joba (not that they necessarily will do what I say) by looking at his stats and the Yankee bullpen as a whole.

Contrary to popular belief, Joba didn't have terrible season in '10. He went 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA, and 77 K's in 73 relief appearances in 71.2 IP. He recorded 25 holds and 3 saves. Joba didn't do anything that typical bad relievers do. He allowed just 6 homers, 0.8 per 9 innings, and walked 22, 2.8 per 9. His strikeout to walk ratio was a staggering 3.50! But he allowed 71 hits, 8.9 per 9. You just can't allow that many hits as a reliever. Still, that's his only real problem. If he reverses that trend, he will be an effective reliever.

Let's look at the entire Yankee bullpen to see if Joba is still needed in the bullpen. Mariano Rivera (3-3, 1.80 ERA, 33 saves in '10) is as good as ever. Soriano is outstanding as well (3-2, 1.73, 45 saves, and 11-20, 2.73, 88 saves in his career). Robertson (4-5, 3.82, 14 holds) was outstanding from June on (4-3, 2.58, 8 holds). Logan (2-0, 2.93, 13 holds) was solid as a lefty specialist. So was Pedro Feliciano (3-6, 3.30, 23 holds) for the Mets. Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33, 1 hold) even had his share of success. Those are the guys who will for sure be in the Yankee bullpen. Then, you can add in Damaso Marte (0-0, 4.08, 9 holds) when he comes back from a shoulder injury. Also, the Yankees signed Mark Prior (hey, you never know) who will probably be a reliever, Neal Cotts (0-2, 4.29, 10 holds in '08 before struggling to a 7.36 ERA in '09 in 19 games and undergoing Tommy John surgery and suffering a hip injury, causing him to miss all of '10), and Brian Schlitter (0-1, 12.38 in 7 big league appearances, but 2-1, 3.15, 13 saves at Triple-A). All three are ex-Cubs (thank you Larry Rothschild). The Yankees have also acquired or called up (in no particular order) Ryan Pope (4-6, 4.20, 17 saves at Double-A), Andy Sisco (4-4, 4.32 at Double-A), Brian Anderson (a converted outfielder who went 0-0 2.08 in the minor in '10, including a 2.57 ERA at Triple-A), Buddy Carlyle (2-0, 3.59, somehow 0 holds in '08, but posted an 8.86 ERA in '09 and went to Japan for '10), Daniel Turpen (7-6, 4.30, 4 saves), and lefty Robert Fish (2-0, 1.12 at High-A, but then a scary 8.93 ERA at Double-A). The Yankees have a lot of bullpen candidates. Do they need Joba? Why couldn't a healthy Prior or Pope put up a 4.40 ERA for the Yankees?

So now it may be down to trading Joba are making him a starter (again). How has Joba done as a starter? He's 12-7 with a 4.18 ERA and 206 K's in 43 career starts and 221.2 IP. He went 9-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 133 K's in 31 starts in the Yankees' championship season of '09. That's certainly not great, but it could be an upgrade over the other 5th starter candidates (see this post: Are the Yankees doomed without Pettitte?).

So, what should the Yankees do with Joba? What I would do is stretch out Joba over spring training and give him a chance to win the 5th starter job. If he does win the job and is at least somewhat successful, then great. If not, some team will want to trade for him.

Will the Yankees re-sign Melky Cabrera?

The Atlanta Braves have released 26 year old switch-hitting outfielder Melky Cabrera and 40 year old right-handed reliever Takashi Saito. Saito, despite his age, had a great year in '10, going 2-3 with a 2.83 ERA and 69 K's in 56 relief appearances and 54 IP with the Braves. Melky had a not-so-great season, hitting .255 with 27 doubles, 4 homers, 42 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and .317 OBP in 147 games. He also had an off-year defensively, posting a just average .988 Fld% in 84 games in LF, a way below average .971 Fld% in 55 games in CF. He did post a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 25 games in RF and have a total of 8 outfield assists. . Should the Yankees resign him?

Let's go back to Melky's years with the Yankees from 2005 to 2009. Melky had his first 'cup of coffee' in the big leagues in '05, hitting .211 in 6 games. He didn't make any errors in centerfield. In '06, Melky won the Yankee LF job. He hit .280 with 26 doubles, 7 homers, 50 RBI, 12 stolen bases, 75 runs, and a .360 OBP in 130 games. He posted a great .994 Fld% in LF and a .992 Fld% in the outfield overall. He led the AL with 12 outfield assists from left field. In '07, Melky became the Yankees' starting centerfielder. He had a nice season, hitting .273 with 24 doubles, 8 homers, 73 RBI, 13 stolen bases, 66 runs, and a .327 OBP in 150 games. He posted just a league-average .989 Fld% in CF, but he led the AL with 14 outfield assists from centerfield. Melky's career had gotten off to a promising start. Also, he turned just 23 in August of '07. It appeared that he was going to be a Yankee outfielder for a long time. He was a fan favorite and one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. He was so good that the Yankees didn't include him in a potential deal for Johan Santana.

But in '08, everything changed for Melky. He had his worst season, hitting just .249 with just 12 doubles, 8 homers, 37 RBI (half his '07 total), 9 stolen bases, just 42 runs, and worst of all a .301 OBP in 129 games. He even had an off-year defensively, posting a below average .985 Fld% in CF with just 7 outfield assists. It was so bad that after the season, the Yankees nearly traded Melky to the Brewers for Mike Cameron. But, they decided to hold on to him in the end.

In '09, Melky rewarded the Yankees for their dedication to him. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, 66 runs, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. But, strangely he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF (obviously tops in the league) but just 2 outfield assists from CF. With Melky having a high value and Brett Gardner ready to become a regular, the Yankees included Melky in the Javier Vazquez deal (Melky, LHP Mike Dunn, and RHP Arodys Vizcaino for Vazquez and Boone Logan.)

After Melky's bad '10, do the Yankees want him back? Even if he does come back, he will certainly never be a full-time starter again, pending an injury. But, he could be a very useful utility outfielder. Let me put it this way: Golson can't hit, Thames can't field, and Kearns is just bad. The Yankees could use a better all-around backup outfielder. The Yankees already have a great outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Swisher, so they don't need a guy like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. They just need one more piece to complete their outfield- a good all-around backup with some pop off the bench. There are other options available, but Melky could be that guy. I think they should re-sign him.

Do the Yankees need to trade for another bullpen arm?

The Yankee bullpen was a big strength for the team in 2009. No reliever who appeared in 40 or more game posted an ERA over 4.50. It has certainly been a different story in '10. Excluding Mariano Rivera, who has a miniscule 1.05 ERA, no Yankee reliever who has appeared in 13 or more games has posted an ERA under 4.08. Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, and Chan Ho Park have posted 5.79, 5.48, and 6.18 ERA's respectively. What's going on with the Yankee bullpen? Let's go through the stats of each current member of the bullpen individually.

Rivera has gone 2-1 with a 1.05 ERA, 20 saves, and 33 K's in 34 relief appearances and 34.1 IP. He has given up just 16 hits on the year for a tiny 4.2 H/9 ratio. That's less than 1 hit every 2 innings! He has walked just 6 batters on the year, or 1.6 per 9 innings. He has struck out 8.7 batters per 9 inning. Also, Rivera has given up just 1 homer all year, the grand slam to Kubel. He has been amazing and nearly untouchable.

Joba has gone 1-4 with a 5.79 ERA, 18 holds, 2 saves, and 40 K's in 39 relief appearances and 37.1 IP. He has a great 9.6 K/9 and a decent 3.4 BB/9, but what's been bad for Joba has been the amount of hits he has given up. He has given up 42 hits, more than a hit per inning, for a 10.1 H/9 ratio. It's all about the amount of hits given up. He's has struck out more than enough batters, and walked few enough batters, but he's just given up too many hits. More problems with Joba include a .293 BA against him by righties compared to a .269 BA by lefties, and allowing batters to hit .348 against him with runners in scoring position. But, all hope is not lost for Joba. He has been incredibly unlucky. Batters are hitting a ridiculous .370 on balls in play against him. That's .70 over the MLB average! Batters are even hitting .333 against him on ground balls! Hopefully that will turn around soon and Joba will end the year with a repectable 4.00 ERA. But, can Joe Girardi wait for Joba's luck to change? Joba has a critical role in the bridge to Rivera as the setup man. Should the Yankees acquire another reliever to be setup man? I think yes. The Yankees should acquire a player such as Octavio Dotel that can step into the setup role so Joba can straighten himself out in situation with less pressure. Then, when Joba does straighten himself out, he can move back into the setup role, while that acquired reliever remains an important part of the bullpen assuming he does well. Joba hasn't been good so far, but he's had bad luck on balls in play and his luck will eventually turn around.

Robertson has gone 1-3 with a 5.46 ERA, 6 holds, and 32 K's in 31 relief appearances and 29.2 IP. He has posted a great 9.7 K/9, but a below-average 5.2 BB/9. Also, just like Joba, he has given up 36 hits for a bad 10.9 H/9. Robertson has just allowed too many base runners. He has allowed nearly 2 base runners per inning. He has also allowed a .316 BAA against righties and a .283 BAA against lefties. Robertson has been even more unlucky than Joba, allowing an improbable .398 BA on balls in play. He has allowed a crazy .343 BAA on ground balls, a .357 BAA on fly balls, and even a .500 BA on bunts But, despite the extra base runners, Robertson has a better ERA than Joba. He has allowed a better .303 BA with runners in scoring position. I think Robertson will also straighten things out by season's end. With better luck, he could have had a 3.50 ERA or better. An acquired reliever would allow Robertson to appear in some situations with less pressure. Just like Joba, Robertson has had terrible luck that has led to his bad performance, and his luck will eventually turn around.

Chan Ho Park has gone 1-1 with a 6.18 ERA, a terrible 0 holds, and 22 K's in 21 relief appearances and 27.2 IP. He struck out a decent 7.2 batters per 9 innings, and posted a great 2.3 BB/9 ratio. But, the continued theme is too many hits allowed per9 innings. Park has allowed a completely terrible 11.1 H/9 ratio. Park has been a bit unlucky, allowing a .326 BAA on balls in play, but the real reason he has a 6.18 ERA is because he has allowed 2.0 homers per 9 innings. That's more homers than Rivera, Chamberlain, and Robertson have allowed per 9 innings COMBINED. He has just been terrible. I don't think there's anything the Yankees can do with him. They should designate him for assigment.

Damaso Marte has gone 0-0 with a 4.08 ERA, 9 holds, and 12 K's in 30 relief appearances and 17.2 IP. He has struck out 6.1 batters per 9 innings, but walked a bad 5.6 per 9 innings. He has allowed only 5.1 hits per 9 innings, so he has been hard to hit. Unlike Joba, Robertson, and Park, he has been incredibly lucky. Batters have hit just .161 against him on balls in play. He has a 4.08 ERA because of his 5.6 BB/9 and because he has allowed exactly 1 homer per 9 innings. He has been pretty good.

With Alfredo Aceves and Sergio Mitre hurt, and Boone Logan and others sent down to the minors, the only other active Yankee reliever is Dustin Moseley. He has gone 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 2 games. I hope he can keep that kind of ERA going.

So, the Yankees do need another reliever. Joba and Robertson are still waiting for their luck to change, and Park is just a complete disaster. Another reliever could help every reliever in the bullpen be comfortable, and play well.