Crawford to Boston

OF Carl Crawford has agreed to a 7 year, 142 million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. That gives the Red Sox four starting outfielders (Crawford, Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew, and Jacoby Ellsbury), so Ellsbury is about to be traded, probably to San Diego as the player to be named in the Adrian Gonzalez deal.

First, let's look at this deal from Boston's standpoint. They're getting one of the best outfielders in baseball. Crawford had a ridiculous season in '10, hitting .307 with 30 doubles, 19 homers, 90 RBI, 13 triples, 110 runs, 184 hits, 47 SB (10 CS), and a .356 in 154 games for the Rays. His 13 triples led the league, while his 47 stolen bases were third, and his .307 BA was 9th. To put his stats in perspective, he had the same BA as Ryan Zimmerman, 1 less homer than Victor Martinez, as many stolen bases as Brett Gardner (1 more CS than him), and 1 less run than Miguel Cabrera (and Derek Jeter). He also posted a .994 Fld% in LF with 7 outfield assists, good enough to win a Gold Glove. He's just an amazing player, and he will be worth every penny of the 142 million.

How about Ellsbury though? Is Crawford that much better than him? Well, first of all, Ellsbury couldn't stay healthy in '10. That's obviously a problem. Even ignoring the injuries, let's look at his 2009, his best season. He hit .301 with 27 doubles, 8 homers, 60 RBI, 10 triples, 94 runs, 188 hits, 70 SB (12 CS), and a .355 OBP in 153 games. But, the more advanced metrics say that Ellsbury played very badly defensively in centerfield that season. More notable to me is his -9.7 UZR (9.7 runs below average Ultimate Zone Rating). He had a 21.3 UZR in '08, the year before. Crawford by the way, had an 18.5 UZR in '10. (Gardner posted a 21.9 UZR to lead all AL left fielders in '10.) Ellsbury just wasn't that great of a player for Boston. But, is he so bad to warrant the Red Sox paying Crawford about 18 million dollars more than Ellsbury will make in '10? No. Good job by the Red Sox to sign Crawford, but from an economic standpoint at least, it wasn't worth it to sign Crawford to replace Ellsbury for so much more money. The way that the Red Sox could resolve that would be to trade Mike Cameron. Of course, no other would team pay an outfielder that will be 38 in a month and who was hurt in '10 and has a .250 career batting average eight million dollars (he was a TERRIBLE signing). So, the Red Sox are going to be forced to trade Ellsbury.

Now, let's look at it from a Yankee standpoint. My first reaction to the signing was "Oh no, the Red Sox signed Crawford!". My second reaction was a very different one. The Red Sox signing Crawford isn't a good thing for the Yankees, but it isn't so bad for two reasons: 1) the Yankees can focus all their energies on signing Cliff Lee, knowing that they don't have Crawford as a backup plan (they just offered Lee a 7 year deal); and 2) both Gardner and Nick Swisher will be back in 2011.

Will the Yankees re-sign Melky Cabrera?

The Atlanta Braves have released 26 year old switch-hitting outfielder Melky Cabrera and 40 year old right-handed reliever Takashi Saito. Saito, despite his age, had a great year in '10, going 2-3 with a 2.83 ERA and 69 K's in 56 relief appearances and 54 IP with the Braves. Melky had a not-so-great season, hitting .255 with 27 doubles, 4 homers, 42 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and .317 OBP in 147 games. He also had an off-year defensively, posting a just average .988 Fld% in 84 games in LF, a way below average .971 Fld% in 55 games in CF. He did post a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 25 games in RF and have a total of 8 outfield assists. . Should the Yankees resign him?

Let's go back to Melky's years with the Yankees from 2005 to 2009. Melky had his first 'cup of coffee' in the big leagues in '05, hitting .211 in 6 games. He didn't make any errors in centerfield. In '06, Melky won the Yankee LF job. He hit .280 with 26 doubles, 7 homers, 50 RBI, 12 stolen bases, 75 runs, and a .360 OBP in 130 games. He posted a great .994 Fld% in LF and a .992 Fld% in the outfield overall. He led the AL with 12 outfield assists from left field. In '07, Melky became the Yankees' starting centerfielder. He had a nice season, hitting .273 with 24 doubles, 8 homers, 73 RBI, 13 stolen bases, 66 runs, and a .327 OBP in 150 games. He posted just a league-average .989 Fld% in CF, but he led the AL with 14 outfield assists from centerfield. Melky's career had gotten off to a promising start. Also, he turned just 23 in August of '07. It appeared that he was going to be a Yankee outfielder for a long time. He was a fan favorite and one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. He was so good that the Yankees didn't include him in a potential deal for Johan Santana.

But in '08, everything changed for Melky. He had his worst season, hitting just .249 with just 12 doubles, 8 homers, 37 RBI (half his '07 total), 9 stolen bases, just 42 runs, and worst of all a .301 OBP in 129 games. He even had an off-year defensively, posting a below average .985 Fld% in CF with just 7 outfield assists. It was so bad that after the season, the Yankees nearly traded Melky to the Brewers for Mike Cameron. But, they decided to hold on to him in the end.

In '09, Melky rewarded the Yankees for their dedication to him. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, 66 runs, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. But, strangely he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF (obviously tops in the league) but just 2 outfield assists from CF. With Melky having a high value and Brett Gardner ready to become a regular, the Yankees included Melky in the Javier Vazquez deal (Melky, LHP Mike Dunn, and RHP Arodys Vizcaino for Vazquez and Boone Logan.)

After Melky's bad '10, do the Yankees want him back? Even if he does come back, he will certainly never be a full-time starter again, pending an injury. But, he could be a very useful utility outfielder. Let me put it this way: Golson can't hit, Thames can't field, and Kearns is just bad. The Yankees could use a better all-around backup outfielder. The Yankees already have a great outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Swisher, so they don't need a guy like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. They just need one more piece to complete their outfield- a good all-around backup with some pop off the bench. There are other options available, but Melky could be that guy. I think they should re-sign him.