Where will Pujols sign? - odds for each team

One of the biggest things coming in the 2011 offseason is the impending free agency of Albert Pujols. He looks to command the biggest contract in MLB history, even corralling 30 million dollars a year. But who will pay him that kind of money? Let's go through the teams and see what the odds are for each team signing Pujols.

No chance

30. Rays

The Rays need help at first base, but considering they couldn't re-sign Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena, how in the world would they sign Pujols? Even if they have a small payroll and there's no chance they'll commit over half their 2012 salary to one player. There's a zero chance Pujols goes to the Rays.

Odds: 1 in 4,000,000,000

29. Royals

The Royals have a tiny payroll and Eric Hosmer as their first baseman of the future. The Royals don't need to make a big splash in free agency with the top prospects coming, and even if they did, they don't have anywhere near the money to sign Pujols. Pujols will not be going across the state of Missouri to Kansas City in 2012.

Odds: 1 in 1,000,000,000

28. Pirates

When was the last time the Pirates signed a big free agent? They just don't have the payroll. Lyle Overbay (arguably their biggest free agent signing of the 2010 offseason) isn't the long-term answer at first base, but the Pirates will have to look to the farm system or lower-tier free agents because Pujols will not be a Pirate (although I could see the headline now: "Pujols a Pirate").

Odds: 1 in 90,000,000

27. Blue Jays

The Jays couldn't even sign their own big impending free agent, Roy Halladay. How in the world would they sign Pujols?

Odds: 1 in 75,000,000

26. Diamondbacks

They haven't had a big signing in quite a while. Prospect Brandon Allen is the first baseman is the future, and he's certainly not a sure thing, and also the D-backs made a run at Paul Konerko, but they just don't have anywhere near enough money to make a run at Pujols.

Odds: 1 in 60,000,000

25. Brewers

If the Brewers had the money to sign Pujols, they would have extended Prince Fielder. Also, they just signed Ryan Braun to a huge deal.

Odds: 1 in 50,000,000

24. Padres

Ditto Brewers, but for Adrian Gonzalez. They haven't signed anybody to a big extension, but they have never had a lot of money to begin with.

Odds: 1 in 45,000,000

23. Reds

The Reds have a player they can build around in Joey Votto at first base, and they're a small-market team anyway.

Odds: 1 in 35,000,000

22. Indians

The Indians are playing out of their mind right now and you would think that they just need to continue adding fuel to the fire to keep contending. But, they have a good combination of veterans and young players right now, and they would certainly extend Grady Sizemore before signing Pujols. Not to mention that they don't have the money to sign Pujols anyway.

Odds: 1 in 20,000,000

21. Twins

The Twins have Justin Morneau at first base, and it's unlikely that they'll be able to afford another high-priced player.

Odds: 1 in 10,000,000

20. Giants

The Giants have Aubrey Huff and Brandon Belt, and we know they don't have 30 million dollars lying around.

Odds: 1 in 8,000,000

19. White Sox

The White Sox have some money, but they have both Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn. They're not signing Pujols.

Odds: 1 in 7,500,000

18. Mets

The Mets have had cash in the past, but we know that the Wilpons are cash-stricken and looking to add a minority owner. Even if they did somehow get the money, they'll be much more worried about signing Jose Reyes anyway. And of course, they have a promising player in Ike Davis at first base.

Odds: 1 in 5,000,000

17. Astros

They're getting a new owner, so you never no what their payroll would be, but they have Brett Wallace at first base, and the new owner wouldn't want to commit most of his payroll to Pujols.

Odds: 1 in 3,000,000

16. Athletics

The A's don't have the money, but I feel like Billy Beane could pull off a crazy sign-and-trade or something.

Odds: 1 in 2,500,000

15. Mariners

The Mariners have signed a couple of big free agents in recent years, but they don't appear to be contending anytime soon, and they have Justin Smoak, who should be manning first base for years to come.

Odds: 1 in 2,000,000

14. Marlins

The Marlins want to make a splash as they're moving into their new stadium, and they did spend a bit more money in the 2010 offseason, but 30 million dollars is a ton of money, and unless Pujols gives the Fish a "hometown discount" because they're the closest MLB team to the Dominican public, the Marlins won't be able to sign him.

Odds: 1 in 1,000,000

Probably not

13. Phillies

The entire baseball world is hoping that the Phillies don't scrape together enough pennies to sign Albert Pujols. I'm sure Ryan Howard is hoping too.

Odds: 1 in 10,000

12. Braves

The Braves have Freddie Freeman at first, and they don't have limitless funds, but they've made runs at big players in recent years.

Odds: 1 in 7,500

11. Tigers

Maybe the Tigers have money, but they have Miguel Cabrera, and they would have to catch Victor Martinez more often to fit in Pujols at DH. They'd also have to convince Pujols to play left field on an irregular basis (he did play most of 2003 in left field, but he hasn't played there since).

Odds: 1 in 5,000

10. Rockies

The Rockies have extended Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Is there any money left?

Odds: 1 in 3,500

9. Angels

The Angels made runs at Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford this past offseason, but failed to sign either of them, and they traded for the pricey Vernon Wells. The Angels don't have quite enough money to sign Pujols, and they also have two promising first baseman in Kendrys Morales and Mark Trumbo.

Odds: 1 in 2000

9. Red Sox

The Red Sox might have the money, but with Adrian Gonzalez at third, David Ortiz at DH, and even Carl Crawford in left field, the Red Sox would have to convince Pujols to play right field. Pujols did play 39 games there in 2001, but he has had some elbow problems since, and playing right field could kill his elbow and endanger his career. It's not impossible, but it's certainly a long-shot.

Odds: 1 in 1000

Don't completely count them out

7. Dodgers

They've spent quite a bit of money in the past. If they ever get that FOX TV deal signed, and their ownership situation resolved you never know what will happen, but the chances are certainly against Pujols being a Dodger.

Odds: 1 in 100

6. Orioles

The Orioles are starting to spend some money, and Derrek Lee was signed to just a one-year contract, but 30 million dollars is seemingly too much.

Odds: 1 in 75

5. Rangers

The Rangers have been spending money lately, but they already have a ton of money on the books and a logjam of players playing first base/DH including Mike Napoli and Michael Young. They theoretically could sign Pujols, but they probably will decide not to.

Odds: 1 in 60

4. Nationals

The Nats signed Jason Werth this past offseason and Adam LaRoche is coming off the books after the season, so you never know for sure.

Odds: 1 in 40

3. Yankees

You may think I'm crazy, but Pujols going to the Yankees is a semi-realistic possibility. It would be the same of situation as the Red Sox above with Mark Teixeira at first base, but the Yankees would certainly move Brett Gardner to give Pujols time in left field, and if they could sign Pujols, they would certainly be willing to trade Jesus Montero to give him time at DH as well.

Odds: 1 in 20

Contenders

2. Cubs

The Cubs have new owners, the Ricketts, and are dying to make Pujols a part of their team. They might actually be able to offer Pujols a 10 year, 300 million dollar contract. But would Pujols leave St. Louis?

Odds: 2 in 5

1. Cardinals

The Cardinals have been Pujols' team the past 11 years. They won a championship with him and have built a solid team around him. Why should he leave? But will the Cardinals offer him the 30 million a year?

Odds: 12 in 25

Results

Cardinals- 48% chance of re-signing Pujols

Cubs- 40% chance of signing Pujols

Yankees- 5% chance of signing Pujols

Nationals- 2.5% chance of signing Pujols

Rangers- 1.7% chance of signing Pujols

The field- 2.7% chance of signing Pujols

It's Cubs-Cardinals for the rights to have Pujols with the Yankees, Nationals, and Rangers having outside chances and every other team barely being involved if part of the picture at all. This should be interesting.

A tale of two trades: Randy Johnson's tenure in the Bronx

Does everyone remember when Randy Johnson was traded to the Yankees? It was a critical time period for them, right after the sheer disappointment and failure of the 2004 postseason. So what did they do? They traded for Johnson. Who did they trade? Javier Vazquez, Dioner Navarro, and Brad Halsey. We all know why they traded Vazquez... does game 7 ring a bell? Navarro was a catching prospect who had already made a cameo in the majors at that time, but he hit just .263 in the minors in '04, and the Yankees already had Posada. Halsey, the one you probably haven't heard of, was a lefty starter coming off an outstanding season at Triple-A in which he went 11-4 with 2.62 ERA in 23 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 144 IP. He struck out just 108 (6.8 per 9), but walked just 37 (2.3 per 9). He also made 8 appearances in the majors, including 7 starts, but he posted a 6.47 ERA (3 good starts, 4 bad starts). The trade to get Johnson was certainly a reasonable one for the Yanks. Although he was already 41 years old, he was also coming off a great year himself, having gone 16-14 with a 2.60 ERA and 290 K's in 35 starts and 245.1 IP for a terrible D-backs team.


As you probably remember, Johnson's tenure in the Bronx had mix reviews. In '05, he had a good season anchoring the Yankee staff, but not a great season, going 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA and 'just' 211 K's in 34 starts and 225.2 IP. No only Yankee starter that threw 200 innings, won 15 games, and or 150 batters. He was the one stabilizing force in a season riddled by injuries to starting pitchers (this was the Aaron Small/Shawn Chacon year). In 2005 though, Johnson was not anywhere near as effective. He won 17 games again, going 17-11, but with a 5.00 ERA and just 172 K's in 33 starts and 205 IP. After the year, the Yankees traded Johnson back to Arizona in exchange for Luis Vizcaino, Ross Ohlendorf, Steven Jackson, and Alberto Gonzalez. Vizcaino had a nice year as a reliever in '05, posting a 4.30 ERA, but in 77 appearances. He left as a free agent following the year. (He recently re-signed with the Yankees.) Ohlendorf pitched very badly for the Yankees for parts of two seasons for the Yanks (6.02 ERA), but has been a good pitcher since being traded to Pittsburgh, posting a 12-24 record despite a 4.15 ERA. Jackson never pitched for the Yankees, but has posted a 4.31 ERA for the Pirates as a reliever. The Yankees traded Gonzalez to Washington after he hit just .152 for them. None of the acquired players made a difference for the Yankees long-term.

Johnson posted a 3.89 ERA for Arizona from '07 to '08. After getting his 300th win while playing for the Giants in 2010, he retired. He will certainly be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. That being said, his 2-year tenure with the Yankees showed that he was really taking advantage of pitching in the NL West. His ERA was much better in the NL (2.92) than in the NL (3.60) for his career. But, he was still a good enough pitcher to survive even in the tough AL East and win 34 games in two seasons.

Randy Johnson's two year tenure in the Bronx was not successful, but had the Yankees not acquired him, they would not have made the playoffs in '05. Even though he struggled in the AL East, he still found ways to win ballgames and help the team win. He should be credited for lasting his age 41 and age 42 seasons in the AL East, rather than have his 4.37 ERA during that time period held against him. Even in the twilight of his career, he was still able to get the job done with all the pressure in the world on him under the bright lights of New York.

Crawford to Boston

OF Carl Crawford has agreed to a 7 year, 142 million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. That gives the Red Sox four starting outfielders (Crawford, Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew, and Jacoby Ellsbury), so Ellsbury is about to be traded, probably to San Diego as the player to be named in the Adrian Gonzalez deal.

First, let's look at this deal from Boston's standpoint. They're getting one of the best outfielders in baseball. Crawford had a ridiculous season in '10, hitting .307 with 30 doubles, 19 homers, 90 RBI, 13 triples, 110 runs, 184 hits, 47 SB (10 CS), and a .356 in 154 games for the Rays. His 13 triples led the league, while his 47 stolen bases were third, and his .307 BA was 9th. To put his stats in perspective, he had the same BA as Ryan Zimmerman, 1 less homer than Victor Martinez, as many stolen bases as Brett Gardner (1 more CS than him), and 1 less run than Miguel Cabrera (and Derek Jeter). He also posted a .994 Fld% in LF with 7 outfield assists, good enough to win a Gold Glove. He's just an amazing player, and he will be worth every penny of the 142 million.

How about Ellsbury though? Is Crawford that much better than him? Well, first of all, Ellsbury couldn't stay healthy in '10. That's obviously a problem. Even ignoring the injuries, let's look at his 2009, his best season. He hit .301 with 27 doubles, 8 homers, 60 RBI, 10 triples, 94 runs, 188 hits, 70 SB (12 CS), and a .355 OBP in 153 games. But, the more advanced metrics say that Ellsbury played very badly defensively in centerfield that season. More notable to me is his -9.7 UZR (9.7 runs below average Ultimate Zone Rating). He had a 21.3 UZR in '08, the year before. Crawford by the way, had an 18.5 UZR in '10. (Gardner posted a 21.9 UZR to lead all AL left fielders in '10.) Ellsbury just wasn't that great of a player for Boston. But, is he so bad to warrant the Red Sox paying Crawford about 18 million dollars more than Ellsbury will make in '10? No. Good job by the Red Sox to sign Crawford, but from an economic standpoint at least, it wasn't worth it to sign Crawford to replace Ellsbury for so much more money. The way that the Red Sox could resolve that would be to trade Mike Cameron. Of course, no other would team pay an outfielder that will be 38 in a month and who was hurt in '10 and has a .250 career batting average eight million dollars (he was a TERRIBLE signing). So, the Red Sox are going to be forced to trade Ellsbury.

Now, let's look at it from a Yankee standpoint. My first reaction to the signing was "Oh no, the Red Sox signed Crawford!". My second reaction was a very different one. The Red Sox signing Crawford isn't a good thing for the Yankees, but it isn't so bad for two reasons: 1) the Yankees can focus all their energies on signing Cliff Lee, knowing that they don't have Crawford as a backup plan (they just offered Lee a 7 year deal); and 2) both Gardner and Nick Swisher will be back in 2011.

Marlins-Red Sox trade

In a swap of left-handed pitchers from the 2006 draft the Florida Marlins have traded Andrew Miller, the 6th overall pick from that draft by the Detroit Tigers, to the Boston Red Sox for Dustin Richardson, a 5th round pick.

Miller, acquired by the Marlins in the Miguel Cabrera trade, has appeared in the majors for parts of the last 5 seasons, but has posted just a 5.84 ERA, including a 8.54 ERA in 7 starts and 2 relief appearances for the Marlins in '10. Miller's main downfall has been hits allowed- he has allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings in the majors including 14.1 hits per 9 in '10. Miller, who once had so much promise, even posted a 5.35 ERA and 9.4 hits allowed per 9 in the minors in '10. He is just 25, but he's just gone straight down.

Richardson, a reliever, had a good season in '10. going 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in 32 relief appearances in the minors in '10, striking out 56 in 44 IP, and going 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA in 26 relief appearances for the Red Sox, striking out 12 in 13 IP. He's a decent reliever, and at 26 going on 27, he could have a bright future as a lefty specialist.

The Marlins must feel that Miller can't be fixed. His college stats (27-9 with a 2.76 ERA at UNC), showed his tremendous potential, but he's just been a disaster in the majors. They got what they thought that was the best possible value that they could get for him. The Red Sox must think that they can fix Miller. They basically just traded away a pitcher that will likely go straight to the Marlins' bullpen for a project. Can Miller be fixed? As a Yankee fan, I sure hope not.

Some notes on the Yanks' crazy 11-9 win over Boston last night

Wow, what a game. It looked like a blowout win for the Yanks, then it looked like a terrible loss for them, and then it turned into a Yankees Classic. Besides all the drama, what made this game so special?

You may have noticed the home run totals in the game. The Yanks didn't have any homers until the bottom of the 9th will Boston had 5. Boston had 3 solo homers, a 2-run homer, and a 3-run homer. Homers accounted for all of Boston's runs except for the first one, an RBI single by Beltre to make the score 6-1 Yanks. In contrast, before the 2-run homers by A-rod and Thames in the bottom of the 9th, the Yankee scoring consisted of three RBI doubles, a 2-run single, an RBI single, and a sac fly. Another funny thing- did the Yanks forget about the "wind tunnel" in right field? Both of the Yankee homers were to LF or left-center, while 3 of the 5 Boston homers were to RF or right-center.

Despite all the homers, there was some pitching in this game. The order of the way the pitchers performed for Boston was interesting. Matsuzaka fell apart, giving up 6 runs on 9 hits in 4.2 innings. Then, Wakefield came in and shut the Yanks down, going 2.1 shutout innings and giving up only 1 hit. Bard then came in and threw a shutout inning, giving up no hits. Then of course, Papelbon came in and gave up 4 runs on 3 hits in 0.2 innings, blowing the save and getting the loss. So, if A were the terrible pitchers for Boston and B were the good pitchers for Boston, it would be ABBA- a chiastic structure. Does it have any significance? Well, maybe the pitching in the middle doesn't matter if your starter and closer have a terrible game. To prove this point, let's look at the Yankee pitching. Hughes had his first bad start of the year (it had to happen sometime, and he'll be fine moving forward), going 5 innings and giving up 5 runs on 6 hits. Boone Logan gave up 1 run in 1 inning on 2 hits. Park of course, continues to do badly, as he threw 1+ innings and gave up 3 runs on 4 hits, blowing the Yankee lead. (As a side note, Park his pitched in 4 games, and has given up the Yankee lead and been in line for the loss in two of them. Of course, the Yanks came back last night, so Park didn't get a loss). Then, Marte came in and pitched his heart out, throwing 1.2 innings of no run, 1 hit ball. Then, Vazquez came in and pitched 0.1 innings of no-run, no-hit ball, getting the win. So, only the last 2 Yankee pitchers gave up no runs. If A was bad pitchers and B was good pitchers, the Yankees yesterday would be AAABB. So, basically, it's really tough to win if your bullpen does badly at the end of games. Despite the bad start for Yankee pitching, Marte and Vazquez combined to shut out the Red Sox for the last two innings of the game, and that was enough for the Yanks to come back. (If you look, the Red Sox scored 3 runs in the 8th, but those were all when Park was pitching. After Marte came in, Boston didn't score any more runs in the inning.)

Back to the hitting. Every single starter in the game for both teams got a base hit except for Hermida for Boston. Only one base was stolen in the game, and not by Brett Gardner (who had 2 hits and a walk), but by Ramiro Pena. On both teams, every starter got an RBI besides the first 2 batters in the batting order and the last 2 batters in the batting order. On both teams, the second batter in the batting order drew the most walks on the team: Pedroia with 2 walks (the only 2 walks by Yankee pitching) and Brett Gardner with 1 walk (Jeter, Teixeira, and Miranda also had 1 walk each). All the homers on both teams were from "the heart of the order" (3 to 6 in the lineup).

One more thing about Park: when the stat sheet says "C Park faced 3 hitters in the 8th inning." (without recording an out), you know there's a problem.

Hope that's enough random stats for you.

Can Brett Gardner be as good as Jacoby Ellsbury?

Jacoby Ellsbury has been known as a great player. He is considered a very good player and a great base stealer. Can Brett Gardner be that good?

Jacoby Ellsbury was called up to the majors in 2007 and he made an immediate impact with the Red Sox. He hit .353 with 7 doubles, 1 triple, 3 homers, 18 RBI, 9 SB's, 0 CS, and a .394 OBP in 33 games. He posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in LF and CF. The next year in '08, Ellsbury had a good year, hitting .280 with 22 doubles, 7 triples, 9 homers, 47 RBI, 50 SB, 11 CS, 98 runs, and a .336 OBP. He posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% at all 3 outfield positions, primarily CF. He finished 3rd in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, only to Evan Longoria and Alexei Ramirez. In '09, Ellsbury improved even more, hitting .301 with 27 doubles, 10 triples, 8 homers, 60 RBI, 70 SB, 12 CS, 94 runs, and a .355 OBP. He posted a .994 Fld% in CF. He was a budding star. In '10, he hit .333 with 4 doubles, 0 triples, 0 homers, 1 RBI, 2 SB, 0 CS, and a .333 OBP in 6 games before getting hurt with a rib injury. He posted an 1.000 Fld% in 5 games in LF and 1 game in CF.

Brett Gardner was called up to the majors in '08 and made a decent impact, hitting .228 with 5 doubles, 2 triples, 0 homers, 16 RBI, 13 SB, 1 CS, and a .283 OBP in 42 games. He posted an 1.000 Fld% in CF and LF. In '09, Gardner hit .270 with 6 doubles, 6 triples, 3 homers, 23 RBI, 26 SB, 5 CS, and a .345 OBP in 108 games. Gardner won the Yankee CF job out of spring training over Melky Cabrera, but, he eventually lost his starting job. He also missed time with a broken thumb. But, so far in '10, Gardner has really had a breakout year. He is hitting .317 with 2 doubles, 1 triples, 2 homers, 12 RBI, 17 SB, 1 CS, 28 runs, and a .391 OBP in 35 games. He has posted a .975 Fld% in LF (1 error), and an 1.000 Fld% in CF. That error in LF will probably be his last or next-to-last error of the year and he will put up an Fld% around .995. If you project his hitting stats so far in '10 over the whole season, he would play in 153 games, hitting .317 with 9 doubles, 4 triples, 9 homers, 52 RBI, 74 SB, 4 CS, 122 runs, and a .391 OBP. That would be incredible and better than any season that Ellsbury has put up. The one strange thing about those numbers would be the only 9 doubles, but with 74 SB's, who needs doubles? I don't expect Gardner to be that good, but he definitely can put up a near-.300 BA with 55 stolen bases. The Yankees would still be very happy with that.

So, can Gardner put up Ellsbury-type numbers? Well, he has definitely has the ability to. If he plays anywhere near as good as he has so far in '10, he will match or at least come close to Ellsbury's career averages per full season (.291 BA, 60 SB). Can Gardner keep playing at the level he's playing at right now? That remains to be seen.

What will the Yankees do with 3/4 of the Core 4 hurt?

Jorge Posada is hurt with a calf injury. Mariano Rivera has missed time with a side injury. Andy Pettitte will miss at least one start. What will the Yankees do without them?

Francisco Cervelli has done well so far filling in for Posada. He is hitting .371 with 0 homers, 6 RBI, and a .436 OBP. He has posted an 1.000 Fld% at catcher so far, but he has not thrown out any attempted basestealers yet. He is a fine backup, but not nearly as good as Posada. Posada has hit .290 so far with 5 homers, 12 RBI, and a .364 OBP. He has posted just a .984 Fld% at catcher, but he does have a 21% CS%. Posada hopefully will be back for at least one game in the Boston series, which starts tonight. The Yanks obviously aren't as good with Cervelli behind the plate, but they'll be okay.

Joba Chamberlain has done pretty well as the Yankee setup man and filled in very well for Rivera as the Yankee closer in the recent Orioles series. He's is 0-1 with a 2.92 ERA, 13 K's, and 2 saves in 13 relief appearances and 12.1 IP so far in '09. Both of his saves were in the Baltimore series. During his 2 saves, he pitched 2 innings, giving up only 1 hit and 1 walk, and strking out 3. Rivera should be back for tonight's game if necessary, but we know that Joba can fill in at closer. Granted, Rivera is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA with 9 K's and 7 saves in 10 relief apearances and 10 IP, but Joba could do fine as the closer if he's needed.

The situation with Pettitte is more complicated. Javier Vazquez isn't hurt, but he's performed so badly (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/636845-whats-javier-vazquez-trade-value) that his start will be skipped or at least delayed in addition to Pettitte. That makes 2 total spot-starts. Sergio Mitre, who is 0-0 with a 2.79 ERA in 5 relief appearances in '09, will make one of the spot starts. But, what about the other? Could it be Alfredo Aceves? Aceves is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in 9 relief appearances and 11 IP. Aceves did make 1 start in '09 and 4 starts in '08. Aceves hasn't even had a 3 inning appearance this year, so maybe he couldn't start a game. Vazquez might have to start a game after the Boston serie because of the Pettitte injury. Or, the Yankees could call up one of the prospects mentioned in the link above, Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister. Considering Nova is now 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA and McAllister, after a bad start, is now 0-2 with a 5.52 ERA, Nova would be much more likely to get the call. The Yankees would probably send down backup OF Greg Golson if they bring up Nova. Pettitte is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 6 starts, so it would be tough shoes for anyone to fill. Hopefully whoever spot-starts can give the Yankees 5 decent innings.

No team in the majors is as good when key players are injured. That's the case with the Yankees, with Posada (hopefully back very soon), Pettitte, and Curtis Granderson all injured right now (in additon to Park, but he's not a key player). The players filling in hopefully can do a decent job. The Yankees are still a very good team, and they will definitely compete. It will just be a bit harder.

(This is the post about the situation with Granderson injured: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/635445-with-cg-hurt-hows-the-yankee-of-situation-going-to-look)

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AL East Review: April (and up until now in May)

1. Rays: The Rays have gotten off to a great start, posting the best record in the majors so far at 18-7. They have gone 6-1-1 in series. Their only series loss was against the Yankees. They lead the AL in runs despite being 6th in the AL in homers, 5th in BA, and 4th in OBP. They do rank second in stolen bases. The Rays have the best pitching in the AL so far, leading the league with a 3.01 ERA and giving up the fewest runs. They rank 4th in the AL in Fld%. Basically, the Rays are in first place in the AL East and have the best record in the majors because they have scored the most runs in the league and given up the fewest runs in the league.

2. Yankees: The Yankees have gotten off to a good start, going 16-8 and currently sitting in the AL Wild Card position. They have won 7 of 8 series so far, only losing a series to the Angels. The Yanks have hit well as they rank second in the AL in runs to the Rays, and second in BA. They lead the league in triples and OBP. The Yankees have the 4th best ERA in the AL at 3.63, and have given up the second-least runs in the AL, again only to the Rays. In addition, the Yanks have the second-best Fld% in the AL. The Yanks are in second place in the AL East and for the best record in the AL because they are second in runs scored and runs allowed only to the best team in the AL East and AL right now, the Rays.

3. Blue Jays: The Blue Jays are 5.5 games back of the Rays in the AL East and 4.0 games back of the Yankees in the AL Wild Card race with a 13-13 record. They have gone 4-3-1 in series. Despite leading the AL in doubles and homers, the Jays are just 5th in the AL in runs because they only rank 13th in the AL in BA. The Blue Jays' pitching has not done well as they have only the 9th best ERA in the AL and have given up only the 7th-least amount of runs. They have ranked 3rd in the AL in Fld%. The Blue Jays are a decent team, but they're pretty inconsistent.

4. Red Sox: The Red Sox are 7.0 games back of the Rays in the AL East and 5.5 games back of the Yankees in the AL Wild Card race with an 11-14 record. They have gone 4-4 in series. The Red Sox are 6th in the AL in runs and BA, so they're just an average hitting team. Boston's pitching has really let them down as they are 12th in the AL with a 4.78 ERA and they have allowed the most runs in the AL. Even their fielding, the part of the game that they tried to improve on has been a disaster as they rank 13th in the AL in Fld%. Boston has really had a terrible start.

5. Orioles: The Orioles are 11.0 games back of the Rays in the AL East and 9.5 games back of the Yankees in the AL Wild Card race with a 7-18 record, the worst in the majors. They have gone 1-7 in series, with their lone series win coming against the Red Sox. Their hitting has been very bad as they rank 12th in the AL in runs and 9th in BA. They rank dead last in stolen bases. Their pitching has been just as bad as they have only the 10th best ERA in the AL at 4.67, and they have also given up the 10th most runs in the league. They rank 7th in the AL in Fld%. They're just a bad team right now.

Projections based on current records: Rays: 117-45, Yankees: 108-54, Blue Jays= 81-81, Red Sox= 71-91, Orioles= 45-117

I bet none of these projections are even close to right.

My predictions: Rays 97-65, Yankees 100-62, Blue Jays 73-89, Red Sox 86-76, Orioles 70-92

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