Are the Yankees doomed without Pettitte?

Andy Pettitte will make a decision on his future within the next couple days. Will that decision determine the Yankees' fate in 2011?

The Yankees have a great lineup, but the obvious question is their pitching. CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 in '10) is a rock-solid ace, and Phil Hughes is a solid pitcher (18-8, 4.19), but after that, the rotation really tails off. Who knows what the Yankees are going to get from AJ Burnett (10-15, 5.26)? Then of course, without Pettitte, there's a huge competition for the 4th and 5th starter spots. The favorites are Ivan Nova (1-2 4.50 in the majors and 12-3, 2.86 at Triple-A) and Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33, but just a 5.93 ERA as a starter). The other options currently are David Phelps (10-2, 2.50 between Double-A and Triple-A), Andrew Brackman (5-7, 3.01 at Double-A, but strangely 5-4, 5.10 at High-A), and Hector Noesi (14-7, 3.20 between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A). Among those "other" options, I would think that only Phelps has any shot because Brackman and Noesi have a combined 3 games at Triple-A. The glaring omission from my list is Manny Banuelos (0-4, 2.51), but he has logged only 3 games at Double-A, so he's not ready yet. So, two of Mitre, Nova, and Phelps will be starters for the Yankees if Pettitte retires. Oh my gosh.

Pettitte went 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 101 K's in 21 starts and 129 IP. Of course, he missed two months with a groin injury. Would Pettitte be able to stay healthy in 2011? That's a big question. But, he would be very effective even if he posts a 4.20 ERA (like Hughes) in around 20 starts and is available for the playoffs.

Ivan Nova had a very interesting 7 starts in the majors. He went 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his starts. In the first inning he posted a 1.29 ERA. In the second inning, he posted a 0.00 ERA. What? He didn't even walk a single batter! In the third inning he posted a 6.43 ERA, but whatever, he posted a 2.57 ERA in the 4th inning. But then, he allowed a 15.00 ERA in the 5th inning. Wow. That's not good. He allowed as many homers (2) as he allowed every other inning COMBINED. Even when he survived the 5th, he posted a 6.43 ERA in the 6th. He just couldn't finish his 5 innings. To put it another way, he allowed a .196 BA the first time through the order, a .246 BA the second time through, and then a .400 BA the third time through! Every hitter turned into Ted Williams against him! (Fine, just almost as good- Williams hit .402.) But, the question is, was Nova's decline late in games a fluke or not? There are two reason that it was probably (not definitely) a fluke. Nova threw 187 innings between the majors and minors, easily his most ever, so maybe fatigue was a factor as he passed his previous high for innings (which he was 0.2 IP short of when he was promoted to the majors to stay in August). Also, Nova got really unlucky. And I really mean that. Overall, Nova allowed a .296 BAbip (batting average on balls in play), right around the league average, but he allowed a .444 BAbip with runners in scoring position. That's crazy. I doubt that not being able to finish his starts will not be as much of a problem for Nova in 2011.

Sergio Mitre. Please Andy, come back so we don't have to see this guy in the rotation. Mitre has a 13-25 record as a starter with a 5.48 ERA. How has he started 64 games? At least as a reliever he's posted a 4.34 ERA. It's not like anything's weird with Mitre. He has a .312 career BAbip, so that doesn't make his stats look any better. In all 9 innings, Mitre has allowed a BA over .265 and under .333. He's just not good as a starter, there's no two ways about it. I hope the Yankees don't make the mistake of putting Mitre in their rotation.

Would I be more confident in David Phelps as the 5th starter than I would be in Sergio Mitre? I think so. Phelps, who turned 24 in October, has never been regarded as an elite prospect yet he has performed well at every level of the minors. Phelps has a 2.50 ERA, nearly as good as Phil Hughes' 2.37 minor league ERA (I went more into that comparison here) and he has never repeated any level of the minors for any period of time. He isn't a strikeout pitcher (7.4 career K/9), but he has great control (2.0 career BB/9). He has also allowed just 0.5 homers per 9 innings. Most of all, Phelps is a winner, as evidenced by his 31-8 career record. Keep in mind that Ivan Nova was just 35-32 in his minor league career (3.80 ERA). Will Phelps be a competitor for Rookie of the Year is given that 5th starter job? Probably not. But, he should be able to post a 4.50 ERA and keep the Yankees in his starts.

Andy, please come back. Ivan Nova is pretty good and David Phelps might end up being a fine pitcher himself (Yankees, please don't make Mitre the 5th starter!), but Pettitte would certainly be better than either of them. Pettitte is pretty likely not to stay healthy the whole year, so Phelps would probably get his chance anyway (again, please Yankees, don't put Mitre in the rotation). Maybe the Yankees should sign a minor league free agent to compete with Nova and Phelps (and Mitre) if Pettitte retires, but if I was Brian Cashman, I wouldn't be too aggressive signing any of the remaining starters or doing some stupid move (i.e. Bartolo Colon).

Yanks give up on McAllister

The Yankees acquired OF Austin Kearns from the Indians in exchange for a player to be named. That player to be named was minor league RHP Zach McAllister. McAllister, ranked fifth in Baseball America's prospect rankings entering this season, never really fit in with the Yankees organization. McAllister is a sinker-slider pitcher. Most of the starters that the Yankees develop throw four-seam fastballs and hard breaking balls (ex. Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain with Chien-Ming Wang a notable exception). McAllister was leapfrogged by Ivan Nova, who throws a low-90's four-seam fastball and a high-70's power curveball. (Nova was just called up to the majors to make a few starts because Phil Hughes is nearing his innings limit.) McAllister has struggled through a disatrous season in the minors, going 8-10 with a 5.09 ERA for the Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees, primarily because he has allowed 11.2 hits per 9 innings, a remarkably bad ratio. (Nova has gone 12-6 with a 2.86 ERA.) Bottom line, the Yankees were going to stick with McAllister and his sinker-slider repertoire as long as he was successful in the minors. But, since he started struggling and had been passed by Nova (and possibly David Phelps) in the race for the next available major league rotation spot, he was expendable, and the Yankees gave him a chance with another organization. Good luck to him as a member of the Cleveland Indians.

A decade of Yankee first round picks

We all remember the days when the Yankee farm system was a complete joke. The Yankees always drafted badly and when they did have a good prospect, they traded him for a veteran. But, the Yankee farm system has turned around the last few years, starting with Phil Hughes being drafted in 2004. Let's look at the Yankee 1st round picks since 2000 to see if the Yankees have improved, at least in terms of their first round picks.

In 2000, the Yankees drafted catcher David Parrish with the 28th pick in the draft. The Yankees also drafted him in the 10th round in 1997, but he didn't sign. Parrish had the potential to be a great defensive catcher. He threw out 30% of attempted base stealers his first 3 years in the minors. But, he made too many errors behind the plate, and never hit above .253 any of his years in the minors for the Yankees. He ended being a journeyman minor leaguer who never made the majors. Grade: F

With the 23rd pick in 2001, the Yankees selected Florida State outfielder John-Ford Griffin (no, his name is not a typo). At Short Season-A Staten Island in '01, he had a great season, hitting .311 with 17 doubles, 5 homers, 43 RBI, 10 SB, and a .413 OBP in 66 games. But, he was lost in the outfield, posting a .943 Fld%. In '02, he hit .267 with 16 doubles, 3 homers, 31 RBI, and a .344 OBP in 65 games for High-A Tampa before being promoted to Double-A Norwich. He hit .328 for Norwich with 3 doubles, 5 homers, 10 RBI, and a .400 OBP in 18 games. With his trade value at its absolute highest, the Yankees traded him to the A's as part of the blockbuster 3-team deal that sent Ted Lilly to Oakland, Carlos Pena to Detroit, Jeff Weaver to the Yankees, and Jeremy Bonderman to the Tigers. After hitting just .143 in 2 games for Double-A Midland, Oakland traded him to the Blue Jays for a player to be named (Jason Perry). He never hit .280 in any of his years in the Toronto, but he hit 13 homers in '03, 22 homers in '04, and 30 homers in '05. He made his major league debut in '05 for Toronto, hitting .308 with 1 homer and 6 RBI in 7 games. He also played in the majors for Toronto in '07, hitting .300 with 1 homer and 3 RBI in 6 games. Griffin played in the minors for the Dodgers and Cubs to finish off his career. He was pretty much a journeyman minor leaguer who had a couple of "cups of coffee" in the big leagues. But, he did have a role in the Jeff Weaver trade. Grade: D+

The Yankees had no 1st round pick in '02. In the 2nd round, they drafted RHP Brandon Weeden. He went 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 30 K's 7 starts, 4 relief appearances, and 34.2 IP in '02 for the Rookie ball Gulf Coast League Yankees. In '03, he went 2-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 31 K's in 9 starts and 3 relief appearances for the Rookie ball Gulf Coast League Yankees and the Short Season-A Staten Island Yankees. He was promptly traded to the Dodgers in the Kevin Brown deal. After posting ERA's of 5.39 and 5.70 at Low-A Columbus for LA, he was a Rule 5 draft pick (Triple-A portion) by the Royals and he posted a 6.03 ERA for them. Weeden went back to school, going to Oklahoma State University. He is now in position to be their starting quarterback this upcoming season, after starting QB Zac Robinson was drafted by the New England Patriots. Weeden did pretty well in the low levels of the minors for the Yankees and served a role in the Brown trade before completely falling apart. Grade: C-

There was a point when it seemed that 2003 first round pick Eric Duncan was going to be a star. Duncan, a 3rd baseman and the 27th overall pick in the '03 draft, hit .301 between the GCL and Staten Island Yanks in '03, with 17 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 6 triples, and a .364 OBP in 61 games. He then took his power up a notch in '04 between Low-A Battle Creek and High-A Tampa, hitting just .258, but with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 83 RBI, 75 runs, and a .357 OBP in 129 games. Duncan never hit that well again, and was stuck behind some guy named Alex Rodriguez at 3rd base. He was moved to 1st base in '06, but never hit well enough to be called up when Jason Giambi was injured. Duncan is hitting .285 right now as a Double-A utilityman for the Braves, but with just 4 homers. Duncan started off strong, but just completely fell apart. Grade: D

In 2004, the change started. The Yankees drafted some guy named Phil Hughes with the 23rd pick in the draft, who is 11-3 with a 3.99 ERA for the Yankees so far in '10. He struggled in '08 to the tune of a 6.62 ERA, but got back on track in '09 as a reliever and now is a pretty good starter. Grade: A

2005 first rounder (17th overall) C.J. Henry, a SS, never hit over .250 any year in the minors, although he was part of the Bobby Abreu trade. He is now a guard on the Kansas Jayhawks basketball team. At least he was part of that trade. Grade: D+

In 2006, the Yankees drafted RHP Ian Kennedy with the 21st overall pick in the draft. Kennedy never had an ERA over 2.22 any year in the minors, but he posted a 6.03 ERA for the Yankees, including an 8.17 ERA in '08. He was part of the Curtis Granderson. Kennedy was a decent pick, but he certainly didn't live up to expectations. Grade: B

In 2007, the Yankees drafted RHP Andrew Brackman with the 30th overall pick. He immediately had Tommy John surgery after he was drafted, and didn't make his minor league debut until 2009. He went 2-12 with a 5.91 ERA in '09, but he has rebounded from a terrible start in '10 (13.50 ERA after 2 starts) to post a 4.94 ERA between High-A and Double-A. He still has a shot to make an impact in the future for the Yankees. Grade: B

In 2008, the Yankees drafted high school RHP Gerrit Cole. Cole didn't sign, and went to UCLA. After going 11-4 with a 3.37 ERA in '09 for the Bruins, he could be the number 1 pick in the 2011 MLB draft. The Yanks picked a great talent, but this was a terrible pick because they couldn't sign him. Grade: F+ (the plus is for effort)

In 2009, the Yankees drafted 5-tool OF Slade Heathcott with the 29th overall pick in the draft. He is hitting .277 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 13 RBI, 8 SB, 19 runs, and a .351 OBP in 34 games. He hasn't done very well so far, but its hard to tell how good a player is through 37 pro games. At least he's stealing bases. Grade: ?

In 2010, the Yankees drafted high school SS Cito Culver with the 30th overall pick in the draft. Culver is the heir-apparent to Derek Jeter. After signing quickly, he is hitting .237 for the Rookie ball GCL Yankees with 3 doubles, 0 homers, 6 RBI, 1 triple, 1 SB, 8 runs, and a .310 OBP in 21 games. Definitely too early to tell for him. Grade: ?

The Yankees have improved in terms of drafting their first round picks. Their top picks from 2000-2003 were complete disaster, while 3 out of their 5 1st round picks from 2004-2008 were at least decent picks, and Cole would have been a great pick if they signed him. Their 1st rounders in 2009 and 2010 both have potential.

The future of the Yankees: David Phelps

Before my recent post "Are there any impact players waiting in the NYY minors?", I had never heard of David Phelps. But, now I have a feeling that David Phelps will be the next Phil Hughes.

Let's start the comparisons: Hughes is 6'5, while Phelps is 6'3. Obviously those 2 inches make a difference, but it's close. Hughes had a 2.37 minor league ERA, while Phelps has a 2.41 minor league ERA. Hughes had a .795 winning % in the minors, while Phelps has an .800 winning %. Hughes had a 2.2 career BB/9 in the minors, while Phelps has a 2.1 career BB/9 in the minors. Hughes had a 0.3 HR/9 in the minors while Phelps has a 0.5 HR/9. The list goes on.

Obviously there ae some differences. Hughes is a much bigger man than Phelps, weighing 230 pounds compared to 190 and is much more of a power pitcher. He had a 10.0 career K/9 in the minors compared to Phelps' 7.1. Also, Hughes has allowed much fewer hits than Phelps, posting a 6.0 H/9 compared to 8.2 by Phelps. But, Phelps has improved that to 6.0 in '10.

So, I've compared him with Phil Hughes, but just who is David Phelps?

David Phelps was a 14th round draft pick by the Yankees in 2008 out of Notre Dame. He was assigned to the Short Season-A Staten Island Yankees, and started off with a bang. He went 8-2 with a 2.72 ERA and 52 K's in 15 starts and 72.2 IP. In '09, Phelps did even better, going 13-4 with a 2.38 ERA and 122 K's in 26 starts and 151 IP between the Low-A Charleston Riverdogs and the High-A Tampa Yankees.

Phelps has outdone himself once again in '10. He has gone 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 52 K's in 10 starts and 63.1 IP for the Double-A Trenton Thunder. He just keeps getting better and better.

After posting an untouchable 0.00 ERA in 3 games from the GCL Yankees in '04, Phil Hughes had a 2.19 ERA in '05, a 2.16 ERA in '06, and a 1.91 ERA in '07. Obviously Phelps isn't as good of a prospect as Hughes was since Hughes was a 1st round pick and Phelps was a 14th round pick, but Phelps' ERA dropping every year has to remind you a little bit of Hughes.

The one thing that might be going against David Phelps: his age. He's only 23 years old, but he's less than 4 months younger than Hughes. But, that might be a blessing in disguise. When he reaches the majors, he'll be more developed than Hughes was when he was called up at age 21, as evidenced by his horrendous '08 (0-4, 6.62 ERA) in what was supposed to be his first full major league season. But, will Phelps be anywhere near as good as Hughes? I think he has a shot to perform at a similar level as Hughes at the major league level.

If Phelps finishes off his great '10 in Double-A and then starts out well at Triple-A in 2011, I think he will be called up to the majors, probably as a reliever. We'll have to see what happens.

Some notes on the Yanks' crazy 11-9 win over Boston last night

Wow, what a game. It looked like a blowout win for the Yanks, then it looked like a terrible loss for them, and then it turned into a Yankees Classic. Besides all the drama, what made this game so special?

You may have noticed the home run totals in the game. The Yanks didn't have any homers until the bottom of the 9th will Boston had 5. Boston had 3 solo homers, a 2-run homer, and a 3-run homer. Homers accounted for all of Boston's runs except for the first one, an RBI single by Beltre to make the score 6-1 Yanks. In contrast, before the 2-run homers by A-rod and Thames in the bottom of the 9th, the Yankee scoring consisted of three RBI doubles, a 2-run single, an RBI single, and a sac fly. Another funny thing- did the Yanks forget about the "wind tunnel" in right field? Both of the Yankee homers were to LF or left-center, while 3 of the 5 Boston homers were to RF or right-center.

Despite all the homers, there was some pitching in this game. The order of the way the pitchers performed for Boston was interesting. Matsuzaka fell apart, giving up 6 runs on 9 hits in 4.2 innings. Then, Wakefield came in and shut the Yanks down, going 2.1 shutout innings and giving up only 1 hit. Bard then came in and threw a shutout inning, giving up no hits. Then of course, Papelbon came in and gave up 4 runs on 3 hits in 0.2 innings, blowing the save and getting the loss. So, if A were the terrible pitchers for Boston and B were the good pitchers for Boston, it would be ABBA- a chiastic structure. Does it have any significance? Well, maybe the pitching in the middle doesn't matter if your starter and closer have a terrible game. To prove this point, let's look at the Yankee pitching. Hughes had his first bad start of the year (it had to happen sometime, and he'll be fine moving forward), going 5 innings and giving up 5 runs on 6 hits. Boone Logan gave up 1 run in 1 inning on 2 hits. Park of course, continues to do badly, as he threw 1+ innings and gave up 3 runs on 4 hits, blowing the Yankee lead. (As a side note, Park his pitched in 4 games, and has given up the Yankee lead and been in line for the loss in two of them. Of course, the Yanks came back last night, so Park didn't get a loss). Then, Marte came in and pitched his heart out, throwing 1.2 innings of no run, 1 hit ball. Then, Vazquez came in and pitched 0.1 innings of no-run, no-hit ball, getting the win. So, only the last 2 Yankee pitchers gave up no runs. If A was bad pitchers and B was good pitchers, the Yankees yesterday would be AAABB. So, basically, it's really tough to win if your bullpen does badly at the end of games. Despite the bad start for Yankee pitching, Marte and Vazquez combined to shut out the Red Sox for the last two innings of the game, and that was enough for the Yanks to come back. (If you look, the Red Sox scored 3 runs in the 8th, but those were all when Park was pitching. After Marte came in, Boston didn't score any more runs in the inning.)

Back to the hitting. Every single starter in the game for both teams got a base hit except for Hermida for Boston. Only one base was stolen in the game, and not by Brett Gardner (who had 2 hits and a walk), but by Ramiro Pena. On both teams, every starter got an RBI besides the first 2 batters in the batting order and the last 2 batters in the batting order. On both teams, the second batter in the batting order drew the most walks on the team: Pedroia with 2 walks (the only 2 walks by Yankee pitching) and Brett Gardner with 1 walk (Jeter, Teixeira, and Miranda also had 1 walk each). All the homers on both teams were from "the heart of the order" (3 to 6 in the lineup).

One more thing about Park: when the stat sheet says "C Park faced 3 hitters in the 8th inning." (without recording an out), you know there's a problem.

Hope that's enough random stats for you.

What happened to Mo?

I know that it was just one game, and that Rivera will be fine, but that was ridiculous. A grand slam? That might be the 2nd-least likely thing that ever happened to Rivera, only to game 7 of the 2001 world series.

He only allowed 5 inherited runners to score all of '09, but yesterday allowed all 3 of the runners he inherited from Joba to score. He walked 1 batter. Yes, Rivera occasionally walks batters. But, in 5+ innings, Sergio Mitre only walked one batter. Rivera threw 14 pitches, with only 7 of them being strikes. None of his strikes were swinging strikes. Yesterday was only the 2nd time all year that Rivera had 0 swinging strikes in a relief appearance. The only other time Rivera did not have any swinging strikes was when he threw 4 pitches to get a 1-out save against the Angels on April 15th.Rivera just didn't have his good stuff.

So, we know how bad Rivera was yesterday. But, why? That's a pretty simple answer. Rivera had an 11 day layoff between appearances from April 30th (a save situation) to May 12th because of some pain in his side. His appearance on May 12th was in a non-save situation in an 8-0 game. His next appearance was on May 14th, another non-save situation in an 8-4 game. Then, there was yesterday's appearance. So, there were 15 days between save situations for Rivera. He was rusty. He got into a couple of games since coming back from the injury, but no save situations. He just wasn't prepared to come in to a bases loaded jam. The Yanks should have kept Joba in, and whatever happened would have happened. Maybe if Rivera came into the game in a save situation, but with no additional pressure of runners on base, he would have been okay. That being said, I agree with Girardi's decision to bring Mo in because he expected him to be his regular self. Rivera has come back from injuries before and immediately done well. For example, after having to sit out from September 1st to September 7th 2009 with a groin injury (Phil Hughes saved 2 games), he came back on the 7th and got a save that game and a win the next game.

Basically, Rivera just had a really bad game because of rust from not being in a save situation for over 2 weeks. He'll be fine next game.

Why has Hughes gotten off to such an incredible start?

Phil Hughes has been the best Yankee pitcher so far this year, going 5-0 so far with a 1.38 ERA, 39 K's, and just 14 walks in 6 starts and 39 IP. He has not given up more than 2 runs in a start all year. Why has he been so good?

Including his days as a reliever, righties have hit .203 against Hughes during his career and lefties have hit .264 against him. So far in '10, righties are hitting just .109 against Hughes, and lefties are hitting just .208. Hughes has not started off well in April and May during his career, as he has posted a 5.36 ERA in April and a 4.22 ERA in May. Hughes had an incredible April in '10, posting a 2.00 ERA, but so far in May, he has a 0.85 ERA. Hughes has always rose to the occasion with runners in scoring position, as opposing batters have hit just .224 against him in those situations, but in '10, he's buckled down even more, allowing just a .154 BA with RISP.

These career numbers for Hughes sound pretty good, right? In a tie game, batters hit .251 off Hughes, when there's a 1 run margin in the game, batters hit .233 off Hughes, with a 2 run margin, a .227 BA, and with a 3 run margin, a .231 BA. When he's ahead, batters have hit .198 off Hughes during his career, and when behind, runners have hit .254 off of him. In '10, when there has been a tie game, batters have hit .098 against Hughes, with a 1 run margin, .095, with a 2 run margin, .116, and with a 3 run margin, .130. You can even look at the OBP's for those situations (.229, .219, .216, and .229 respectively) and they're still better than his career BA against in those situations. That's incredible! Batters have hit .206 against Hughes when he's been ahead in '10, and .000 when he's behind. No, that's not a typo, .000. The Yanks have given Hughes good run support, so he's only had 4 batters bat against him in 2 different games when he was behind, and none of them have a hit, so that's also very good. (All the batting averages in this paragraph from '10 were his batting average against in those situation before tonight's game).

No one expects Hughes to keep up these kind of numbers (if he does, he'll win the AL Cy Young, no doubt about it), but Hughes is showing what the Yankees saw in him in before the 2004 MLB draft, and in the minor leagues. Hughes disappointed a lot of the Yankee people and a lot of fans when given a chance as a starter in '07, going 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA. People gave up on him. I gave up on him. I was mad that the Yanks didn't trade him in a possible Johan Santana deal. But, the Yankees knew what they were doing. The Yankees knew they had a future all-star in Hughes. That's what he's showing right now.