Crawford to Boston

OF Carl Crawford has agreed to a 7 year, 142 million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. That gives the Red Sox four starting outfielders (Crawford, Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew, and Jacoby Ellsbury), so Ellsbury is about to be traded, probably to San Diego as the player to be named in the Adrian Gonzalez deal.

First, let's look at this deal from Boston's standpoint. They're getting one of the best outfielders in baseball. Crawford had a ridiculous season in '10, hitting .307 with 30 doubles, 19 homers, 90 RBI, 13 triples, 110 runs, 184 hits, 47 SB (10 CS), and a .356 in 154 games for the Rays. His 13 triples led the league, while his 47 stolen bases were third, and his .307 BA was 9th. To put his stats in perspective, he had the same BA as Ryan Zimmerman, 1 less homer than Victor Martinez, as many stolen bases as Brett Gardner (1 more CS than him), and 1 less run than Miguel Cabrera (and Derek Jeter). He also posted a .994 Fld% in LF with 7 outfield assists, good enough to win a Gold Glove. He's just an amazing player, and he will be worth every penny of the 142 million.

How about Ellsbury though? Is Crawford that much better than him? Well, first of all, Ellsbury couldn't stay healthy in '10. That's obviously a problem. Even ignoring the injuries, let's look at his 2009, his best season. He hit .301 with 27 doubles, 8 homers, 60 RBI, 10 triples, 94 runs, 188 hits, 70 SB (12 CS), and a .355 OBP in 153 games. But, the more advanced metrics say that Ellsbury played very badly defensively in centerfield that season. More notable to me is his -9.7 UZR (9.7 runs below average Ultimate Zone Rating). He had a 21.3 UZR in '08, the year before. Crawford by the way, had an 18.5 UZR in '10. (Gardner posted a 21.9 UZR to lead all AL left fielders in '10.) Ellsbury just wasn't that great of a player for Boston. But, is he so bad to warrant the Red Sox paying Crawford about 18 million dollars more than Ellsbury will make in '10? No. Good job by the Red Sox to sign Crawford, but from an economic standpoint at least, it wasn't worth it to sign Crawford to replace Ellsbury for so much more money. The way that the Red Sox could resolve that would be to trade Mike Cameron. Of course, no other would team pay an outfielder that will be 38 in a month and who was hurt in '10 and has a .250 career batting average eight million dollars (he was a TERRIBLE signing). So, the Red Sox are going to be forced to trade Ellsbury.

Now, let's look at it from a Yankee standpoint. My first reaction to the signing was "Oh no, the Red Sox signed Crawford!". My second reaction was a very different one. The Red Sox signing Crawford isn't a good thing for the Yankees, but it isn't so bad for two reasons: 1) the Yankees can focus all their energies on signing Cliff Lee, knowing that they don't have Crawford as a backup plan (they just offered Lee a 7 year deal); and 2) both Gardner and Nick Swisher will be back in 2011.

Maybin to Padres

The Florida Marlins have traded CF Florida Maybin to the Padres in exchange for relievers Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica. This comes right on the heels of their trade with the Red Sox in which they traded LHP Andrew Miller, who, like Maybin, was also acquired in the Miguel Cabrera trade, and received another reliever, lefty Dustin Richardson. Full post on that trade here: Marlins-Red Sox trade (see sidebar).

Maybin, the 10th overall pick by the Tigers in '05, has yet to show his enormous potential at the major league level. Maybin is a five-tool prospect, but none of those tools have shown up consistently in the majors. In '10 at age 23, he hit just .234 with 7 doubles, 8 homers, 28 RBI, 9 SB, and a .302 OBP in 82 games. He posted a below-average .982 Fld% in centerfield, although he did show great range and post 4 outfield assists. He hit .250 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 13 RBI, just 1 SB, and a .318 OBP in 54 games in '09. That season, he posted a .992 Fld% in CF, but just 1 outfield assist. The thing about Maybin is that if you look at his minor league stats, you would think that he would be a star. In 114 Double-A games over 2 seasons, Maybin hit .283 with 16 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 8 triples, 21 SB, 82 runs, and a .384 OBP. Any team would like a player like that in the majors. At Triple-A in 115 games over 2 seasons, Maybin hit .325 with 24 doubles, 7 homers, 62 RBI, 10 triples, 13 SB, 65 runs, and a .401 OBP. That also would be a great season! The Padres hope that Maybin will finally harness his potential and put up seasons like the minor league stats above in the majors.

Webb had a very good season in '10, going 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 44 K's in 54 relief appearances and 59 IP. He didn't strike out too many batters (just 6.7 per 9), but walked just 19. His one problem was hits allowed- he allowed 64 hits, well over a hit per inning. The Padres must think that he won't be able to post an ERA under 3.00 again while allowing so many hits.

Mujica posted a ridiculous 12.0 K/BB ratio in '10 (72 K's versus 6 walks in 69.2 IP), but he went just 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 49 relief appearances. He allowed less than a hit per inning, but he allowed 14 home runs. Mujica is the kind of reliever that has such great control that you think he could be something special. But, he has to work on his command within the strike zone. If the Marlins could straighten him out, he could be a closer candidate considering Leo Nunez's struggles in '10 (3.46 ERA, 8 blown saves).

This trade makes sense on both sides. The Padres got the CF that they desperately needed while the Marlins got some needed bullpen help. The Marlins traded a player who has had his struggles while the Padres traded players that have done well in the majors, but have particular problems. I think that this will be an OK trade for the Marlins- Webb and Mujica are good relievers, but this trade could be a steal for the Padres if Maybin lives up to his potential.

Marlins-Red Sox trade

In a swap of left-handed pitchers from the 2006 draft the Florida Marlins have traded Andrew Miller, the 6th overall pick from that draft by the Detroit Tigers, to the Boston Red Sox for Dustin Richardson, a 5th round pick.

Miller, acquired by the Marlins in the Miguel Cabrera trade, has appeared in the majors for parts of the last 5 seasons, but has posted just a 5.84 ERA, including a 8.54 ERA in 7 starts and 2 relief appearances for the Marlins in '10. Miller's main downfall has been hits allowed- he has allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings in the majors including 14.1 hits per 9 in '10. Miller, who once had so much promise, even posted a 5.35 ERA and 9.4 hits allowed per 9 in the minors in '10. He is just 25, but he's just gone straight down.

Richardson, a reliever, had a good season in '10. going 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in 32 relief appearances in the minors in '10, striking out 56 in 44 IP, and going 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA in 26 relief appearances for the Red Sox, striking out 12 in 13 IP. He's a decent reliever, and at 26 going on 27, he could have a bright future as a lefty specialist.

The Marlins must feel that Miller can't be fixed. His college stats (27-9 with a 2.76 ERA at UNC), showed his tremendous potential, but he's just been a disaster in the majors. They got what they thought that was the best possible value that they could get for him. The Red Sox must think that they can fix Miller. They basically just traded away a pitcher that will likely go straight to the Marlins' bullpen for a project. Can Miller be fixed? As a Yankee fan, I sure hope not.

The call

Armando Galarraga smiled. Miguel Cabrera raised his hands up in the air. Jason Donald stared down at the ground. The umpire called safe and everything was different.

Armando Galarraga had thrown 8.2 perfect innings in the game. Earlier in the 9th inning, Austin Jackson had made a great catch in center to keep it going. Galarraga had struck out just 3 batters, but he was dominating. He had thrown just 85 pitches. Jason Donald hit a grounder to 1st Miguel Cabrera fielded the ball and flipped to Galarraga, who was covering first. Galarraga's foot was clearly on the base, and Donald was out by half a step. But then, the umpire, Jim Joyce, called Donald safe. The whole stadium was stunned. Jim Leyland came out to argue, but to no avail.

2 pitches later, Galarraga retired Trevor Crowe. The game was over and Galarraga had thrown a 1-hitter. After the game ended, many Tigers players went back to argue with Joyce, but, it was too late. So close, but so far away...

Joyce has since admitted his mistake. Thank you for apologizing, Jim, but it's too late. Can MLB, especially Commissioner Selig do anything about it? Even if they could, they probably wouldn't. It's too late.

But, it's not too late to fix this problem. With all likelihood, Galarraga will never get his perfect game, but there's something Commmisioner Selig can do to make sure this never happens again: instant replay review just for the 9th inning. On bang-bang plays, the umpires should be able to go to replay. The instant replay for home runs is great, and umpires are 99% of the time very good, but sometimes the 9th inning determines the entire game. A close play at home- go to replay. A close play at 1st- go to replay. A questionable homer- obviously they would still be able to go to replay. This is an inexcusable mistake that should never happen again.

28 year old RHP Armando Galaraga had a 20-18 career record and a 4.62 ERA in 56 starts and 9 relief appearances entering the near-perfect game. He is now 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA in 3 starts and a relief appearance so far in '10.