Gil Meche's sudden retirement shows that pitch counts do matter

For those of you who think that pitch counts are a complete joke, you're wrong.

On June 16th, 2009, Gil Meche had one of the best starts of his career. Through 8 innings, he had allowed no runs, and just 4 hits while striking out 5 and walking just one. He had thrown 110 pitches. Instead of bringing in a reliever to pitch the 9th in a 5-0 game, Royals manager Trey Hillman kept Meche in their. Meche retired the side 1-2-3 to complete his complete-game shutout, but he used 22 pitches to do so, finishing with 132 pitches on the day.

Gil Meche has retired from baseball at the age of 32. He said that he retired because of a shoulder injury that would have required surgery. After that fateful day, June 16th, 2009, Meche went just 2-10 with a 6.86 ERA. He was never the same after throwing 132 pitches in that game.

All the young pitchers are protected. They have innings limits and pitch count limits. Maybe so should the veterans too, to some extent.

Not all pitchers are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, or Cliff Lee. A lot of pitchers are much more fragile. The Mariners and the Royals weren't careful at all with Meche.

Two years after making his major league debut with the Mariners in 1999, Meche didn't appear in any major league games in 2001 and 2002 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. In 2003, he pitched 186.1 innings (going 15-3 with a 4.59 ERA), but he posted just a 6.19 ERA after June 20th. He had surpassed his career high for innings in the majors (he had thrown 175.2 innings between the majors and minors in 1999) in that June 20th start which lowered his ERA to 2.89. Fine, Meche only surpassed his career high for innings by just 9.2 IP, but remember that he was just coming off of Tommy John surgery. I'm not saying that the Mariners should have limited him so much after already missing two years to the surgery, but they shouldn't have let him surpass his career high for innings pitched.

In 2004, the Mariners seemingly made an adjustment for Meche, allowing him to throw just 127.2 major league innings, but don't be fooled- he pitched 57 innings at Triple-A as well. (He actually posted a higher ERA, 5.05, at Triple-A than in the majors, 5.01.) Finally in 2005, he was limited to just 143.1 IP, but he still posted a 5.09 ERA. Despite his second-straight year with an ERA over 5.00, the Mariners stuck with him in the last year under their control in '06, allowing him to throw a career high 186.2 innings, and he did pretty well, going 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA.

After the '06 season, the Royals made the stupid decision of signing Meche to a 5 year, 55 million dollar contract. But, after the first year of the contract, the Royals had appeared to make at least a decent deal. Meche had his best season, throwing a career-high 216 innings and going just 9-13 for the hapless Royals, but posting a 3.67 ERA, tying his career high for strikeouts (156), and walking just 62 batters for a great ratio of just 2.6 per 9 innings (he had a 4.0 career BB/9 ratio before '07). In '08, Meche did something few players can do: win 14 games on the Royals. He was the first one to win 14 games on the Royals since Paul Byrd in 2002. (Obviously Zach Greinke did it in his Cy Young season in '09 as well.) Meche went 14-11 with a 3.98 ERA and a career-high 183 K's in 34 starts and 210.1 IP.

Through June 17th, 2009, Meche seemed to be on pace for his best season. Through 14 starts he had a 3.31 ERA and 67 strikeouts compared to 31 walks in 84.1 IP. But, after his 132-pitch complete game shutout on June 16th, Meche went just 2-5 with an 8.46 ERA. A good pitcher never just collapses like that at age 30. It was the 132 pitches.

In 2010, Meche went just 0-5 with a 5.69 ERA and just 41 strikeouts versus 38 walks in 9 starts, 11 relief appearances, and 61.2 IP. He missed from May 25th to September 1st with his shoulder injury. His career was over at age 32 (his 32nd birthday was September 8th).

What's the message here? Two things: 1) you have to be somewhat careful with any pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery, and 2) no pitcher should be kept in for over 130 pitches except when ABSOLUTELY necessary. I'm not saying that pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery shouldn't throw 200 innings, but you have to let him work back up to a regular big league workload. Meche's career was sidetracked because the Mariners let him throw 186.1 innings right after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Then, after the Royals acquired him, they let him throw 216 innings, a jump of 30 innings from '06 to '07 and 50 IP over his average the previous two years. He was still 28 when the Royals got him, and even though they signed him to a big contract to be their ace, the Royals had to limit him somewhat to make sure that he could hold up all 5 years and still be effective. They didn't limit him at all, and not only was he not durable the past two years, but he couldn't even last the entirety of his contract. If I was the Royals I would have limited him to 200 innings in '07 and then let him pitch much a few more that that in '08 and around the same the rest of his deal. Again, they didn't and it cost them.

Let's go back to the trio above: Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Cliff Lee. We know all of them as innings eaters who often finish games. Halladay has thrown 130 or pitches in a game three times, one time each of the past three seasons. CC has throw over 130 pitches in a game just once in his career, during his wild card chase with the Brewers in '08. Cliff Lee has NEVER thrown 130 or more pitches in a game. Even for veterans, you can't throw pitch counts completely out the window. In non-must-win games, no pitcher should throw 130 or more pitches in a game, even if they're throwing a no-hitter (I'm talking to you, D-backs, about Edwin Jackson who you let throw a crazy 149 pitches in his 8-walk no-hitter).

We know that there are many young pitchers right now who could become the next Gil Meche by being overworked, especially after Tommy John surgery, and being forced to retire early. Teams, don't let that happen.

Another review of the Granderson-Austin Jackson trade

Before the 2009 season, the Yankees traded top prospect CF Austin Jackson and LH reliever Phil Coke to Detroit and RHP Ian Kennedy to Arizona in exchange for Curtis Granderson. The Tigers also traded RHP Edwin Jackson for RHP Max Scherzer and LH reliever Daniel Schlereth.

Why did the Yankees do the trade? They already had a top-flight centerfielder in Jackson who was ready for the majors!

Yesterday I was thinking and it finally came to me- Brett Gardner was the key to the trade for the Yankees. (Wait, what?) Yes, Brett Gardner, who wasn't even part of the trade, was the key to the trade for them. We'll get back to this point in a moment. First, let's analyze the trade for all the teams involved.

Jackson had a great rookie year, .293 with 34 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 10 triples, 181 hits, 103 runs, 27 SB, and a .345 OBP in 151 games. But, he led the AL with 170 strikeouts. How can a player with just 4 homers lead the AL in strikeouts? But, you could argue, he still hit .293. Well, let's compare Jackson to Curtis Granderson. Granderson led the AL in strikeouts in '06, his first full season, hitting .260. But, the next season in '07, he finished 7th in the league in strikeouts and hit .302. But, in '08 he hit .280, and in '09 and '10, he has hit under .250. Will the same thing happen to Jackson? For the time being at least, he's a good player.

Granderson missed time with a groin injury in '10, but Kevin Long fixed his swing and he had a nice year. He hit .247 with 17 doubles, 24 homers, 67 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 12 SB, and a .324 OBP in 136 games. He struck out 116 times. He hit .249 with 30 homers and 71 RBI in 160 games in '09, striking out 141 times. He is what he is. He's a good defensive CF with a lot of power and some speed. He of course strikes out a lot, but he's a good player.

Coke had a pretty good year as a workhorse lefty reliever, going 7-5 with a 3.76 ERA, 53 'K's, and 2 saves in 73 relief appearances, 1 start, and 64.2 IP. He walked only 26 for a 2-1 K/BB ratio, and allowed just 2 homers, but he allowed 67 hits, more than a hit per inning. It was better than his '09 season when he went 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 72 relief appearances for the Yankees, giving up 10 home runs. Strangely, he allowed just 44 hits in 60 IP. The Yankees clearly traded Coke because he's just not good. They were able to acquire Boone Logan, so they don't even miss him.

Kennedy had a good rookie season for the Diamondbacks, going 9-10 with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's in 32 starts and 194 IP. He also allowed just 163 hits, way less than a hit per inning, and 70 walks, good for a better than 2-1 K/BB ratio. But, he gave up 26 home runs and led the NL with 16 wild pitches. He's an OK pitcher. The Yankees didn't think he was of any use to them, so they traded him. They knew they had guys like Ivan Nova and Andrew Brackman coming up from the minors. It did turn out that they could have used him after Vazquez was a disaster.

Edwin Jackson had a very interesting season. He went 6-10 with a 5.16 ERA for Arizona and 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA after being traded to the Chicago White Sox. He threw a no-hitter, but he allowed 8 walks and threw 149 pitches. He struck out 181, but he walked 70, allowed more than a hit per inning, and he allowed 21 home runs. The trade was a disaster for Arizona.

Scherzer had a good season for Detroit, going 12-11 with a 3.50 ERA and 184 K's in 31 starts and 195.2 IP. He allowed just 174 hits, way less than a hit per inning. Scherzer did walk 70, but he still had a K/BB ratio better than 2.5. Detroit made a great deal in getting this guy.

Schlereth had a good season at Triple-A Toledo, going 1-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 60 K's in 39 relief appearances and 49.1 IP. But, he walked 34, a high average of 6.2 per 9. He did well in a big league tryout for Detroit, going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 18 relief appearances. He's a pretty good prospect, but he definitely has to work on his control.

It's clear who the winner is in this trade. The Tigers traded away 2 veterans in Granderson and Edwin Jackson for a starting CF in Austin Jackson that's a very different player than Granderson, but just as good, a starter pitcher in Scherzer that's probably better than Edwin Jackson, a lefty to be in the bullpen now in Coke, and a lefty that will be in the bullpen soon, in Schlereth. They are the clear winners in this trade. The Yankees got their guy in Granderson, and he did well, so it apparently wasn't a terrible trade for them. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks had just a terrible trade, as Edwin Jackson under-performed for them. Although Kennedy did well, they gave up a good big league pitcher in Scherzer and a lefty reliever who could eventually be a setup man, and maybe even a closer.

So, now to Brett Gardner, the key to the trade for the Yankees. Austin Jackson is a good player, but he has so little power. So does Gardner. Did the Yankees need both Jackson and Gardner? No. They would have had a very speedy outfield, but they would've had 2 starting players with 5 or less homers. When was the last time the Yankees had 2 guys like that? 1997, when Joe Girardi, Luis Sojo, and Tim Raines had 1, 2, and 4 homers respectively. Even then, Sojo and Raines both played under 80 games. In 1996, the Yankees had Girardi and Mariano Duncan who both hit 2 homers in addition to Gerald Williams who hit 5 homers in 99 games. Clearly, the Yankees can win with 2 players like that, but they probably preferred not to. Jackson was a more tradable player so they traded him instead of Gardner. In Granderson, the Yankees acquired a player with power who was a great hitter for Yankee stadium. The Yankees don't play small ball- they play "power ball". The Yankees probably would've liked to keep Coke, but they were willing to trade him (and Kennedy, who they had no use for) to do the Austin Jackson- Granderson swap. Jackson is a triples hitter, so he's great for Comerica, while Granderson has enough power to hit 35 homers in Yankee Stadium. Although there's no way to say that the Tigers weren't the winners in this trade, the Yankees accomplished exactly what they wanted so it was a good trade for them as well.

A review of every significant Yankee trade since '08

Nearly every year, the Yankees make a deal or two to acquire some veterans in exchange for some prospects and/or young major league players. Let's look at these trades (since '08), how the former Yankees and Yankee prospects have been doing, and how the players acquired in the trades by the Yankees have been doing in order to see whether the trades have ended being a good trades for the Yanks. I'll go through these in reverse chronological order.

In December of '09, the Yankees acquired RHP Javier Vazquez and left-handed reliever Boone Logan in exchange for major league OF Melky Cabrera, left-handed pitching prospect Mike Dunn, and right-handed pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino. Melky has hit .257 for the Braves with 12 doubles, 2 homers, 23 RBI, 3 SB, and a .314 OBP in 82 games. Dunn has gone 2-0 at Triple-A Gwinnett, with a 1.11 ERA and 54 K's in 31 relief appearances and 40.2 IP. Vizcaino went 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 66 K's in 12 starts and 69.1 IP for Low-A Rome before being promoted to High-A Myrtle Beach, where he has gone 0-0 with a 4.61 ERA and 11 K's in 3 starts and 13.2 IP. It's too early to tell, but this has been a pretty even trade so far. The Yankees traded a decent major league player and two good prospects for Vazquez, who is starting to pitch like a great pitcher, and a pretty good reliever in Boone Logan.

Also in December of '09, the Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks made a 3-way trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yanks, Edwin Jackson and Yankees RHP prospect Ian Kennedy to the D-backs, and Arizona right-handed relief prospect Mark Schlereth and right-handed major league starter Max Scherzer going to Detroit along with Yankee CF prospect Austin Jackson and major league lefty reliever Phil Coke. Let's look at how Kennedy, Coke, and Jackson have done for their respective teams. Kennedy has gone 3-7 with a 4.16 ERA and 95 K's in 17 starts and 106 IP. He has been a pretty starter for the D-backs. Coke has been a great reliever for Detroit, going 5-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 28 K's in 40 relief appearances and 34.2 IP. Jackson has hit .306 as the regular centerfielder for the Tigers, with 20 doubles, 1 homer, 20 RBI, 4 triples, 13 SB, and a .355 OBP in 75 games. I guess we have to compare Jackson to Granderson. Granderson has hit .225 with 8 doubles, 7 homers, 23 RBI, 4 triples, 7 SB, and a .300 OBP in 60 games. He missed nearly a month with a groin injury. Jackson has posted a better BA, OBP, and he stole more bases than Granderson so far in '10, but despite the missed time, Granderson has posted better power numbers and tied Jackson in triples. It's a debate who's better, but trading Jackson along with Kennedy and Coke for Granderson does not seem like a good trade for the Yankees. Of course, Granderson could turn it on at any time and make all of us forget about these prospects. But, he hasn't yet, so we have to consider this trade a bad trade for the Yankees right now.

At the trade deadline in '09, the Yankees traded minor league catcher Chris Weems to the Reds in exchange for utility player Jerry Hairston Jr. Weems is hitting just .222 at Low-A Dayton, with 2 doubles, 0 homers, 3 RBI, and a .263 OBP in 14 games. Hairston hit .237 with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 45 gamesfor the Yankees in '09 while playing every outfield position, and every infield position besides 1st base. He's hitting .245 for the Padres in '10, with 8 doubles, 5 homers, 30 RBI, 5 SB, and a .286 OBP in 76 games. This trade was a steal for the Yankees. They traded a struggling prospect for a good major league utility player.

One month before the trade deadline, the Yankees traded minor league LHP Casey Erickson and catching and outfield prospect Eric Fryer in exchange for Eric Hinske, who plays both corner outfield and corner infield positions. Erickson has gone 3-2 for High-A Bradenton, with a 4.02 ERA and 43 K's in 16 relief appearances, 6 starts, and 53.2 IP. Fryer is hitting .274 at High-A Bradenton, with 13 doubles, 7 homers, 34 RBI, 4 triples, 5 SB, and a .373 OBP in 57 games. Hinske hit .226 with the Yankees in '09, with 3 doubles, 7 homers, 14 RBI, and a .316 OBP in 39 games. He really didn't play very much at all. He had just 84 at-bats with the Yankees. With the Braves in '10, he has hit .278 with 16 doubles, 6 homers, 34 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 71 games. This trade was a bad trade for the Yankees. They traded a pretty good prospect in Fryer and a decent prospect in Erickson in exchange for a player who barely played for them.

Five days before the trade deadline in '08, the Yankees traded right-handed pitching prospects Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen, major league right-hander Ross Ohlendorf, and LF prospect Jose Tabata to the Pirates in exchange for left-handed reliever Damaso Marte and OF Xavier Nady. Karsten has gone 2-3 with a 4.71 ERA and 36 K's in 10 start, 6 relief appearances, and 72.2 IP. He went 1-2 with a 7.31 ERA and 12 K's in 4 relief appearances, 1 start, and 16 IP. McCutchen has gone 1-4 for Pittsburgh in '10, with a 8.58 ERA and 16 K's in 6 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 28.1 IP. Ohlendorf has gone 1-6 with a 4.39 ERA and 45 K's in 12 starts and 67.2 IP. He went 11-10 with a 3.92 ERA and 109 K's in 29 starts and 176.2 IP in '09. Tabata is hitting .235 for the Pirates with 6 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, 7 SB, and a .304 OBP in 25 games. Nady hit .270 with 15 doubles, 12 homers, 42 RBI, and a .319 OBP in 66 games with the Yankees between the '08 and '09 seasons. He missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury. Marte has gone 6-2 with a 6.02 ERA in 76 relief appearances with the Yanks from '07 to '10. But, Marte was untouchable in the '09 postseason, giving up no runs on 2 hits in 8 relief appearances and 4 IP. The Yankees traded 4 prospects who Pittsburgh has called up already for a player who was injured most of his time with the team and a reliever who has posted below-average numbers. This trade has been a complete disaster for the Yankees, but at least it gave Marte the opportunity to perform the way he did in the '09 playoffs.

The Yankees have not made good trades the last few years. Among these trades, I would say that only 1 trade (the Hairston trade) was a good trade for the Yankees, 2 trades were bad (Hinske and Nady/Marte) with the Granderson trade seeming to be bad, but it's too early to tell, and the Vazquez trade being a pretty even trade. I hope the Yankees can make better trades at the 2010 trade deadline and during the 2010 offseason.