Are the Yankees doomed without Pettitte?

Andy Pettitte will make a decision on his future within the next couple days. Will that decision determine the Yankees' fate in 2011?

The Yankees have a great lineup, but the obvious question is their pitching. CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 in '10) is a rock-solid ace, and Phil Hughes is a solid pitcher (18-8, 4.19), but after that, the rotation really tails off. Who knows what the Yankees are going to get from AJ Burnett (10-15, 5.26)? Then of course, without Pettitte, there's a huge competition for the 4th and 5th starter spots. The favorites are Ivan Nova (1-2 4.50 in the majors and 12-3, 2.86 at Triple-A) and Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33, but just a 5.93 ERA as a starter). The other options currently are David Phelps (10-2, 2.50 between Double-A and Triple-A), Andrew Brackman (5-7, 3.01 at Double-A, but strangely 5-4, 5.10 at High-A), and Hector Noesi (14-7, 3.20 between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A). Among those "other" options, I would think that only Phelps has any shot because Brackman and Noesi have a combined 3 games at Triple-A. The glaring omission from my list is Manny Banuelos (0-4, 2.51), but he has logged only 3 games at Double-A, so he's not ready yet. So, two of Mitre, Nova, and Phelps will be starters for the Yankees if Pettitte retires. Oh my gosh.

Pettitte went 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 101 K's in 21 starts and 129 IP. Of course, he missed two months with a groin injury. Would Pettitte be able to stay healthy in 2011? That's a big question. But, he would be very effective even if he posts a 4.20 ERA (like Hughes) in around 20 starts and is available for the playoffs.

Ivan Nova had a very interesting 7 starts in the majors. He went 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his starts. In the first inning he posted a 1.29 ERA. In the second inning, he posted a 0.00 ERA. What? He didn't even walk a single batter! In the third inning he posted a 6.43 ERA, but whatever, he posted a 2.57 ERA in the 4th inning. But then, he allowed a 15.00 ERA in the 5th inning. Wow. That's not good. He allowed as many homers (2) as he allowed every other inning COMBINED. Even when he survived the 5th, he posted a 6.43 ERA in the 6th. He just couldn't finish his 5 innings. To put it another way, he allowed a .196 BA the first time through the order, a .246 BA the second time through, and then a .400 BA the third time through! Every hitter turned into Ted Williams against him! (Fine, just almost as good- Williams hit .402.) But, the question is, was Nova's decline late in games a fluke or not? There are two reason that it was probably (not definitely) a fluke. Nova threw 187 innings between the majors and minors, easily his most ever, so maybe fatigue was a factor as he passed his previous high for innings (which he was 0.2 IP short of when he was promoted to the majors to stay in August). Also, Nova got really unlucky. And I really mean that. Overall, Nova allowed a .296 BAbip (batting average on balls in play), right around the league average, but he allowed a .444 BAbip with runners in scoring position. That's crazy. I doubt that not being able to finish his starts will not be as much of a problem for Nova in 2011.

Sergio Mitre. Please Andy, come back so we don't have to see this guy in the rotation. Mitre has a 13-25 record as a starter with a 5.48 ERA. How has he started 64 games? At least as a reliever he's posted a 4.34 ERA. It's not like anything's weird with Mitre. He has a .312 career BAbip, so that doesn't make his stats look any better. In all 9 innings, Mitre has allowed a BA over .265 and under .333. He's just not good as a starter, there's no two ways about it. I hope the Yankees don't make the mistake of putting Mitre in their rotation.

Would I be more confident in David Phelps as the 5th starter than I would be in Sergio Mitre? I think so. Phelps, who turned 24 in October, has never been regarded as an elite prospect yet he has performed well at every level of the minors. Phelps has a 2.50 ERA, nearly as good as Phil Hughes' 2.37 minor league ERA (I went more into that comparison here) and he has never repeated any level of the minors for any period of time. He isn't a strikeout pitcher (7.4 career K/9), but he has great control (2.0 career BB/9). He has also allowed just 0.5 homers per 9 innings. Most of all, Phelps is a winner, as evidenced by his 31-8 career record. Keep in mind that Ivan Nova was just 35-32 in his minor league career (3.80 ERA). Will Phelps be a competitor for Rookie of the Year is given that 5th starter job? Probably not. But, he should be able to post a 4.50 ERA and keep the Yankees in his starts.

Andy, please come back. Ivan Nova is pretty good and David Phelps might end up being a fine pitcher himself (Yankees, please don't make Mitre the 5th starter!), but Pettitte would certainly be better than either of them. Pettitte is pretty likely not to stay healthy the whole year, so Phelps would probably get his chance anyway (again, please Yankees, don't put Mitre in the rotation). Maybe the Yankees should sign a minor league free agent to compete with Nova and Phelps (and Mitre) if Pettitte retires, but if I was Brian Cashman, I wouldn't be too aggressive signing any of the remaining starters or doing some stupid move (i.e. Bartolo Colon).

Who will be the next Yankee closer?

Mariano Rivera is closing in on a 1 or 2 year deal with the Yankees, but we all know that the contract that he's about to sign will probably be his last contract. It's certainly not too early now to think about the next Yankee closer. In this post I will talk about the major league options, and the minor league options for down the line.

After Joba Chamberlain was transitioned back to the bullpen entering this past season, you would have thought that he was being groomed to be the next Yankee closer. But, then he had a disappointing '10, posting a 4.40 ERA. Let's examine his stats. He went 3-4 with the aforementioned 4.40 ERA in 73 relief appearances and 71.2 IP. He struck out 77 and walked 22. He allowed 6 home runs. Based on those stats, excluding ERA, Joba should have had a good year. He posted a great 9.7 K/9 ratio and a good 2.8 BB/9, which comes out to a really good 3.50 K/BB ratio. His 6 homers allowed in 71.2 IP came out to a 0.8 HR/9 ratio, which is certainly acceptable, and he had 3 saves. But, you probably noticed what stat I omitted: hits allowed. He allowed 71 hits- basically a hit per inning. That's not ridiculously bad in general, but it certainly is bad for a reliever.To put that into perspective, Rivera allowed just a 5.9 H/9. Even Joba himself posted a 7.2 H/9 from '07 to '08, and if he gets back to that, he'll be a great reliever. Bottom line, Joba needs to get more swings and misses. He has a great fastball and he should be a strikeout pitcher, not a pitch-to-contact pitcher. So, to summarize, could Joba potentially put it all together? Yes, and if so, he would be a very good closer. But, right now, it's unclear whether that will happen.

If not Joba, the other pitcher currently in the Yankee bullpen that has a chance to be the next closer is David Robertson. The expectations were very high for Robertson in '10 after he posted a 3.30 ERA and a ridiculous 13.0 K/9 in '09. During the first half of '10, Robertson certainly disappointed many people. He posted a 5.46 ERA in 31 relief appearances. Why was his ERA so high? Partially because of too many hits allowed, just like Joba. He struck out 32 in 29.2 IP, but he allowed 36 hits, which amounts to a 11.1 H/9 that was much worse than Joba. But also Robertson had another problem: too many walks. He walked 17 batters, a ratio of around 5.2 batters per 9 innings. Despite his 9.7 K/9, Robertson walked so many guys that his K/BB ratio was just 1.88. But, in the second half, Robertson got himself together. He posted a great 2.27 ERA in 33 apperances. He walked 17 again, but struck out 39 for an improved 2.29 K/BB ratio. But, the biggest reason that Robertson turned around was that he allowed 6.5 hits per 9 innings, definitely a huge improvement. If Robertson pitches as well as he did in the second half of '10 in 2011 and going forward, he'll certainly be a great closer candidate. He walks a few too many batters, but his incredible strikeout rate (11.3 K/9 for his career) certainly makes up for it as long as he gives up less than a hit per inning. Right now, I think that Robertson is more likely to be the next Yankee closer than Joba.

It seems like a strong possibility that the Yankees will re-sign Kerry Wood if no team offers him a closer job. Could he potentially be the next Yankee closer? Picture this potential contract: 3 years, let's say 27 million dollars, with a vesting option in 2014 if he records 30 saves in 2013. But, do the Yankeees think that Wood will stay healthy. Wood went 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 31 K's in 24 relief apperances and 26 IP for the Yankees in '10. He did walk 18, which amounts to a very bad 6.2 BB/9, but he allowed just 14 hits for a ridiuclous 4.8 H/9 ratio. He also gave up just 1 home run. I don't think that the Yankees should sign Wood more than 2 years, but because of the 0.69 ERA in '10 for the Yankees, I had to bring him up.

Minor leaguers:

There's been talk that Andrew Brackman could be the next Yankee closer, but he has nixed that by succeeding as a starter in '10.

J.B. Cox, the former Texas Longhorns closer who at one point was projected to succeed Rivera, and gone through some problems on and off the field. He'll turn 26 in May, and he's at Double-A right now. He's not eliminated from the running, but I'd give him like a 1% chance of ever closing for the Yankees.

Ryan Pope functioned as Double-A Trenton's closer, going 4-6 with a 4.20 ERA, 17 saves, and 85 K's in 39 relief appearances along with 7 starts and 94.1 IP. He walked just 31, but his Achilles' heel was the home run- he gave up 10. He gave up 8.4 hits per 9 innings, but you just can't give up a homer every 9 innings (a 1.0 HR/9 ratio). The amount of homers he's given up doesn't bode well for him. Mariano Rivera gave up 10 home runs between August 12th, 2008 and September 19th, 2010. He'll turn 24 in May, so he has a little time to fix his homer problem. We'll see him in the big leagues within a couple of years, but probably never as a closer.

Always have to bring up Pat Venditte when I can. The switch-pitcher has 51 minor league saves including 6 at High-A Tampa in '10 along with a 1.73 ERA. Minor league hitters just can't seem to hit him, hence his 1.70 career ERA and 11.2 career K/9. He also has great control, as he has walked just 1.9 batters per 9 innings, and posted a ridiculous 6.06 K/BB ratio. He also doesn't allow any hits- just 6.5 per 9 innings, or hit anybody- just 2 hit batsmen in 3 minor league seasons. He's just been great. Will he be able to master major league hitters the same way? Well, first he has to master Double-A and Triple-A hitters. He's already 25 years old, so he better begin dominating them soon and get in the majors by 2012. When he does make the majors, I'll probably be one of 1.5 million bloggers doing posts on him. But, will he ever close for the Yankees? No chance. His upside is the best situational reliever ever, not a closer. He could potentially mow down major league hitters left and right (pun intended), but he just doesn't have the stuff to close games for the New York Yankees.

21 year old right-hander Chase Whitley worked as closer at Short Season-A (SS-A) Staten Island, posting a 1.45 ERA and 15 saves. He won't be the next Yankee closer, but he could potentially be the closer in 4 years (being part of the bullpen in 3 years) if both Joba and Robertson aren't good enough. He was drafted in 2010 and I did a short bio on him here: Analysis on all 50 Yankee draft picks
15. Chase Whitley, a 20 year old RHP from Troy was the Yankees' 15th round pick. He was Troy's closer. He had a decent fastball, 89-92 MPH, but he has 2 other pitches that are very good: a slider and a changeup. He averaged about a strikeout per inning in '10. He has a chance to be a pretty good reliever for the Yanks.

I'm not sure if he can function as a closer with a fastball that tops out at 92, but if his performance at Staten Island means anything, he has a chance.

Preston Claiborne debuted nicely at Staten Island in '10, going 1-2 with a 2.28 ERA, 2 saves, and 30 K's in 19 relief apperances and 23.2 IP. He walked 8 and allowed 20 hits. Possibly most impressive of all, he allowed no home runs. Claiborne also got a brief taste of High-A Tampa to finish the year, going 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA in 5 relief apperances. I wrote this about him in the above post:

7. In the 17th round, the Yankees drafted another RHP, Preston Claiborne from Tulane. He's been a reliever his whole college career. He showed good control at Tulane in '09 (29 K's, 12 walks), and pitched both as a long reliever and short reliever. With that Alrfredo Aceves-like versatility, we might see him in the Yankee bullpen at some point.

Whitley beat out Claiborne to be Staten Island's closer, but Claiborne definitely has some value. Maybe they'll both be in the bullpen in a few seasons. I doubt Claiborne will be the closer, though. Still, if Claiborne becomes Alfredo Aceves 2.0 (minor the injuries), the Yankees will definitely be happy.

Thomas Kahnle, another 2010 draftee, had a great pro debut for Staten Island, posting a 0.56 ERA in 11 relief apperances. He struck out 25 and walked just 5 in 16 innings. Those are all ridiculous stats. He was unhittable. And you thought that he was unhittable based on the stats above. No. He allowed 3 hits. 3 hits! That's a ratio of 1.7 hits per 9 innings. Wow.This guy might be something special. I wrote this about him in that post above about the Yankees' 2010 drafted players:

5. In the 5th round, the Yankees drafted 20 year old RHP Thomas Kahnle from Lynn University in Divison 2. Kahnle is going to be a reliever for the Yanks. He has a lot of potential, as evidenced by his playoff performance as a freshman. He was awarded the Most Outstanding Player award for the NCAA National Tournament and the South Region Tournament. (I haven't had this confirmed, but I'm sure the NCAA National Tournament is Division 2. Note that the Division 1 tournament is the College World Series.) The Yankees can never have enough good relievers, and hopefully Kahnle will be one of them.

The sky is the limit for this kid. He turned 21 in August. We'll see him in the majors within a couple of years, and I would not be surprised if one day, he's the Yankee closer.

Realistically, Joba or Robertson will be the next Yankee closer. But, theycould just be keeping the seat warm for one of these other guys. Although it was a very small sample size, I think that Kahnle really is that good. I think he'll end up being the Yankee closer in 2014 or 2015.

Yankee prospects season review

In this post, I will review the 2010 seasons of the top Yankee prospects and figure out how close they are to the majors. I will group them by position.

Catchers:

Jesus Montero: Montero got off to a rough start in 2010, but rebounded to have a great year. He ended up hitting .289 for Triple-A Scranton with 34 doubles, 21 homers, and a .353 OBP in 123 games. The 21 homers were a career-high and the 34 doubles tied a career high. The BA and OBP were Montero's lowest since '07, but it's a good sign that he was able to rebound from the bad start. He also played relatively well defensively, throwing out 23% of runners while posting a .992 Fld%. (Keep in mind that Montero's CS% is higher than both Posada and Cervelli. Of course, he's up against Triple-A base stealers, not big league base stealers.) But, it seems unlikely that he will ever be a full-time catcher. There's a chance that Montero could start 2011 on the big league roster. At the latest, he will arrive in the majors in September 2011. He will turn 21 in November. ETA: Sometime in 2011

Austin Romine: Romine continues to put up decent seasons in the minors. He hit .268 in 2010 for Double-A Trenton with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. His 31 doubles was a career-high. He posted a 23% CS% at catcher with a .994 Fld%. Romine sounds like a good defender and does have potential, but right now he's had trouble handling great fastballs. He'll obviously have to improve that. Romine will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2012

Others: 17 year old Gary Sanchez hit .329 with 8 homers and 43 RBI in 47 games between Rookie ball and Short Season-A. He had some struggles defensively, posting just a .971 Fld% although he did throw out 26% of attempted base stealers. He DH'd 17 times on the year. ETA: September 2014... 19 year old J. R. Murphy hit .255 with 7 homers and 54 RBI in 87 games for Low-A Charleston. His defense is also a work-in-progress, as he posted a .973 Fld% and a 23% CS%. Those struggles caused him to play DH 34 times with Kyle Higashioka catching. ETA: September 2013... 20 year old Kyle Higashioka hit just .225 for Low-A Charleston, but shined defensively, posting a .987 Fld% and a 33% CS%. He could eventually be a decent big league backup. ETA: September 2012

First basemen:

Brandon Laird: Laird had a great season in 2010 for Double-A Trenton. He hit .291 with 22 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 107 games. He was so good that he was promoted to Triple-A Scranton where he hit .246 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .268 OBP in 31 games. A player who has split time between 3rd base and 1st base, Laird's sub-par defense at 3rd will move him to 1st. He posted just a .931 Fld% at 3rd base this year and has a .934 Fld% there for his career. Meanwhile, he has a .992 career Fld% at 1st including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 6 games there in '10. His only full season at 1st was '08 when he played 88 games at the position and posted a .993 Fld%. Pending a Teixeira injury, Laird will probably never get a chance to start at 1st base for the Yankees. So, his value would come as a bench player with a great bat who could play both 1st and 3rd. Laird's bat needs more work at Triple-A, and his glove, particularly at 3rd, needs more work as well. Certainly though, Laird's bat will get him to the majors in 2011. He turned 23 in September. ETA: August or September 2011

Marcos Vechionacci: Vechionacci finally started hitting in 2010 after years of struggles. He hit .283 for Double-A Trenton with 17 doubles, 11 homers, 55 RBI, 6 SB, and a .350 OBP in 114 games. The 11 homers was a career-high, and the .283 BA was a career high for a season in which he played in 80 or more games. His glove has never been great, but he has experience at every infield position. He has 70 career games at 1st, 3rd, and SS in addition to 7 games at 2nd. But, he has just a .958 career Fld%. If he can fix those defensive problems, he could compete for a utility role in 2012. He turned 24 in August. ETA: September 2011

Others: 22 year old Kyle Roller, the Yankees' 8th round pick in June, hit .267 with 5 homers and 31 RBI in 67 games for SS-A Staten Island. He posted a good .367 OBP. But, he posted just a .987 Fld% at first base. ETA: September 2013 or 2014... 18 year old Ramon Flores hit .329 in Rookie ball, and managed to get promoted all the way up to Low-A and High-A, hitting .250 at both levels. He played all 4 corner positions, struggling to the tune of a .948 Fld% at 1st, although he did post a .983 Fld% in RF and 1.000 Fld% in 10 games in LF and 1 at 3rd. Maybe he could be a utility player down the line. ETA: September 2013 or 2014...23 year old Robert Lyerly had a great offensive season in '10, hitting .312 with 36 doubles, 7 homers, 71 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 131 games for Low-A Charleston. But, notice I said "offensive season", not just "season". Lyerly posted a completely disastrous .873 Fld% at 3rd base, his primary position, and just a .978 Fld% at 1st base as well. Well, he's certainly a much better 1st baseman than 3rd baseman. He improve his fielding and keep, hitting at every level if he wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2013 or 2014

Second basemen:

David Adams: David Adams was off to a great start in '10, hitting .309 with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, and a .393 OBP through 39 games. He hadn't even committed an error at 2nd base, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld%! But, then he fractured his ankle and was done for the year. The question is how Adams will come back. It is possible to develop arthritis after an injury like that, but I'm sure the doctors did everything they can to prevent that from happening. If Adams is fine next season, his bat could propel him to the majors by September. Should he be promoted, he also has experience at 3rd base. He is 23 years old. ETA: September 2011 if healthy, September 2012 or 2013 if recovery takes longer than expected

Reegie Corona: Corona had a bad year at the plate in '10, hitting just .238 with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 31 RBI, 14 SB, and a .306 OBP in 105 games at Triple-A Scranton, but he shined defensively. He posted a .998 Fld% at 2nd base, making just 1 error all season. That's even better than Robinson Cano, who will likely win a Gold Glove this year after posting a .996 Fld%, making just 3 errors all year. Corona also played both SS and 3rd base, but he struggling mightily at those positions, posting a .909 Fld% in 8 games at SS and a .895 Fld% in 9 games at 3rd base. Corona profiles well as a utility infielder. He has just a slight chance of winning a spot on the big league roster during spring training in 2011, but should join the big league club at least in September. ETA: Sometime in 2011

Others: 22 year old Corban Joseph had a nice year in 2010, hitting .283 with 33 doubles, 6 homers, 64 RBI, 7 triples, and a .362 OBP in 129 games between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. He did only hit .216 at Trenton after hitting .302 at Tampa. Defensively is another story. He posted just a .967 Fld% at 2B, not horrible, but pretty bad. He definitely needs work on his defense, but his bat should eventually get him to the majors. He will be 22 this month. ETA: September 2013...26 year old Kevin Russo made his MLB debut for the Yankees, hitting .184 with 4 RBI in 31 games. He did post an 1.000 Fld% at both 2nd base and 3rd base, but posted just a .933 Fld% while playing LF (he only made 1 error). His season in the minors was sort of like that also. After hitting .326 in '09, he hit just .259. He posted a great .992 Fld% at 2nd base, but also played every other position besides 1st base, pitcher, and catcher. He wasn't good at any of the other infield positions (.963 Fld% at SS and a .906 Fld% at 3B), or LF (.962 Fld%), but he did post an 1.000 Fld% in 6 combined games in CF and RF. He'll never be a good player, but he will be on the Yankees at some point in '11 as a super-utility player. ETA: He already has arrived, but he'll arrive again sometime in '11

Third base:

Laird (see above)

Bradley Suttle: Suttle rebounded in '10 after missing all of '09 with shoulder surgery. He hit .272 in 133 games for High-A Tampa, with 33 doubles, 10 homers, 80 RBI, 12 SB, and a .340 OBP. But, he posted a sub-par .951 Fld%. Already 24, Suttle really has to make up for his lost time in a hurry. He must improve defensively to continue his great hitting next season for Trenton if he even wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2012

Lyerly (see above)

Rob Segedin: Rob Segedin had a rough first 22 pro games. The Yankees' 3rd round pick in June hit just .244 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, and 10 RBI, and a .344 OBP in 22 games, all but 2 at SS-A Staten Island (the others were at Rookie ball). His defense was even worse, as he posted a .929 Fld% at 3rd base. He definitely needs a lot of work, both offensively and defensively. He will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2014 or 2015

Shortstop:

Eduardo Nunez: Nunez hit .280 with a homer and 5 SB in 30 games for the Yankees after a great 2010 in the minors. He posted an 1.000 Fld% at SS and a .944 Fld% at 3rd (1 error). But, he didn't make the postseason roster (Greg Golson made the team instead). Nunez hit .289 at Triple-A Scranton with 25 doubles, 4 homers, 50 RBI, 23 SB, and a .340 OBP in 118 games. He posted a .976 Fld% at SS in the minors, but just .917 Fld% at 3rd in 11 games, and just a .889 Fld% at 2B in 5 games. If Nunez wants to be a utility infielder for the Yankees in 2011, he must improve his defense. He is 23 years old. ETA: He has already arrived, and will likely make the Yankees out of spring training in 2011

Cito Culver: Culver, the Yankees' 2010 first round pick, struggled in his first taste of pro ball. He did OK at Rookie ball, hitting .269 with 7 doubles, 2 homers, 18 RBI, 6 SB, and a .320 OBP in 41 games. He posted a bad .918 Fld% at SS, but that's the case with most young shortstops. Culver was then promoted to SS-A Staten Island for some reason, and of course he struggled even more against older competition. He hit just .186 in 15 games game and posted just an .897 Fld%. Culver obviously had a disappointing debut, but he's just 18 and has plenty of time to improve. He is set up to be Derek Jeter's replacement at SS, and Jeter isn't going to retire for at least another couple of years. Culver has to improve both offensively and defensively, or Eduardo Nunez might end up replacing Jeter. ETA: Hopefully September 2014, before replacing Jeter in 2015

Others: 20 year old Jose Pirela had a good season for High-A Tampa, hitting just .252, but with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 61 RBI, 13 triples, 30 SB, and a .329 OBP in 130 games. He isn't as good defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at SS (in addition to a .957 Fld% at 2B). If he can improve defensively, maybe he will be a dark house for the starting SS job after Jeter. (If Jeter retires before 2014, Pirela could compete with Nunez to be the starting SS, at least until Culver arrives in the majors.) He will be 21 in November. ETA: 2012 to 2013... 17 year old Angelo Gumbs, the Yankees 2nd round pick in the '10 draft, had a terrible first 7 games, hitting .192 with no homers or RBI's (although he stole 3 bases), and posting just a .880 Fld% (3 errors). Gumbs, who may eventually be moved to the outfield because of Culver, needs a lot of work. ETA: September 2015...

Outfielders:

Slade Heathcott: 2009 1st round pick Slade Heathcott has had an "interesting" start to his career. Originally considered a 5-tool prospect, Heathcott has only shown some of those tools. Heathcott only hit .258 in '10 for Low-A Charleston, so he doesn't appear to be a good hitter for average. Heathcott struck out 101 times, but he did post a .359 OBP. He only 2 homers in '10, so his power hasn't developed yet. But, that's pretty common for young hitters to have their power develop later, and he did have 16 doubles in 76 games. He did show some speed, stealing 15 bases, hitting 3 triples, and scoring 48 runs in those 76 games. But, he was caught stealing 10 times for just a 60% SB success rate. Heathcott posted just a .953 Fld% in '10 (7 errors), so he doesn't seem to be a great defensive player, at least in CF. But, he did have 8 outfield assists, showing off his great arm. (Could he move to RF in the future?) Heathcott struck out 101 times and posted a .359 OBP. Heathcott might develop into a better all-around player, but so far he's been a bust. He has to improve his BA, improve his SB success rate, and improve his defense while waiting for his power to develop. Hopefully that will happen sooner rather than later. He turned 20 on September 28th. ETA: September 2013

Melky Mesa: If you thought the Yankees would never have a Melky again, you were wrong. Melky Mesa hit just .260 for High-A Tampa, but with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 31 SB, 81 runs, and a .338 OBP in 121 games. He posted a good .985 Fld% in CF (3 errors) with 6 outfield assists in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF. He really seems like a blue-chip prospect, but after spending 3 seasons in Rookie and SS-A ball, he's already 23 years old and will turn 24 on January 31st. Still, if Mesa can put up those kind of numbers in the higher levels of the minors, Mesa will have some future with the Yankees. He better move fast, starting with Double-A in 2011. As a legitimate 4-tool prospect (all tools besides BA), Mesa really has a chance. Hopefully he will make the majors in September 2012 after a solid campaign at Triple-A. ETA: September 2012

Others: 24 year old Colin Curtis hit .289 with 24 doubles, 5 homers, 27 RBI, and a .358 OBP in just 66 games at Triple-A Scranton in '10. The reason he played so few games was that he was called up to the Yankees on June 21st because of injuries to Curtis Granderson and Marcus Thames. Before being sent down on July 30th, Curtis hit .256 with a homer and 8 RBI (he didn't any hits in while posting an 1.000 Fld% in both LF and RF (but, his range factor was way below the league average). He also posted an 1.000 Fld% in the minors. Curtis might never be a starter in the outfield for the Yanks, but he could be a valuable bench player. He will be 25 in February. ETA: He already has arrived, and he will likely make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training... 23 year old Deangelo Mack had a pretty good year in '10, hitting .252 with 20 doubles, 12 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 5 SB (7 CS), and a .333 OBP in 116 games for Low-A Charleston. He's a little bit old, but he could potentially provide power off the bench. He better progress in a hurry. ETA: September 2012 (otherwise he probably won't make the majors)...25 year old Ray Kruml is another relatively old prospect, but he has legitimate speed. He hit .267 in 117 games between High-A and Low-A in '10, with 14 doubles, 1 homer, 21 RBI, and a .314 OBP in, all of which are sub-par, but he stole 42 bases while being caught 8 times. He's not a great outfielder, as he posted a .976 Fld% in CF, and a .973 Fld% in LF (in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF). He doesn't seem like even an average player, but maybe he could be a pinch-runner for the Yankees since Brett Gardner is now a starter. ETA: August 2013 (so he could possibly be on the playoff roster that year)...2010 4th rounder Mason Williams, a 19 year old CF, received the largest bonus the Yankees gave out this year, even more than 1st rounder Cito Culver. He hit .222 in 18 at-bats, so we really have no idea how good he'll be or how he'll progress. ETA: My guess is September 2014, but I have no idea

Pitchers:

Andrew Brackman: 2007 1st rounder Andrew Brackman finally got on track. After going 2-12 with a 5.91 ERA in 19 starts and 10 relief apperances for Low-A Charleston in '09, one year after Tommy John surgery, and 5-4 with a 5.10 ERA in 12 starts for High-A Tampa to begin '10, Brackman was promoted to Double-A Trenton and did great. He went just 5-7, but with a 3.01 ERA and 70 K's in 14 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 80.2 IP. This is the pitcher that the Yankees drafted in the 1st round! Hopefully he continues his success in '11, and we'll see him in September. He'll be 25 in December. ETA: September 2011

Ivan Nova: Nova certainly had his best season in '10. He went 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 135 K's in 23 starts and 145 IP before being promoted to the majors (he made his MLB debut earlier in 2010, tossing 3 scoreless innings in 2 relief appearances). After being promoted to stay on August 23rd, Nova went 1-2 with a 4.85 ERA in 7 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 39 IP. That's certainly not good, but it was decent enough to consider Nova for a rotation spot in 2011 (if the Yankees don't sign Cliff Lee). Nova has a promising future ahead for the Yankees, whether as a starter, or a reliever. ETA: Nova has already arrived, and should make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training

David Phelps: Phelps might be the only Yankee pitching prospect who had a better season than Nova in '10. Phelps went 10-2 with a 2.50 ERA in 141 K's in 25 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 158.2 IP. He was completely dominant. He had a 4 to 1 K/BB ratio (8.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9), and just a 7.9 H/9 ratio. His ERA did go up to 3.07 at Triple-A, but even that's good! Phelps is another Yankee starter with a very promising future, but he is a little bit older than Nova at 24. We'll see him in September 2011 along with Brackman. ETA: September 2011

Manny Banuelos: Banuelos had another great year despite missing time with an appendectomy. He went just 0-4 between Rookie ball, High-A, and Double-A, but with a 2.51 ERA and 85 K's in 15 starts and 64.2 IP. That's an 11.5 K/9! He posted his worst ERA among the 3 levels, 3.52, at Double-A, and understandably why. Just 19 years old, Banuelos is an incredible prospect. He should return to Double-A in '11, go to Triple-A in '12, and be promoted to the majors in September of '12. Even then, he'll be just be just 21 years old. ETA: September 2012

Others: 22 year old Dellin Betances went 8-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 108 K's in 17 starts and 85.1 IP between High-A and Double-A. He had a great 4.91 K/BB ratio (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9). His ERA jumped from 1.77 in High-A to 3.77 in Double-A, but that had to be expected. Hopefully he can do better at Double-A in '11, and do well enough at Triple-A in '12 to be promoted in September of that year. ETA: September 2012... 23 year old Graham Stoneburner had a great year in '10, going 9-8 with a 2.41 ERA and 137 K's in 26 starts and 142 IP between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa. He posted a great 4.03 BB/9 (8.7 K/9 and a 2.2 BB/9) while allowing just 6.8 hits per 9 innings. He's a bit old to be in High-A, but a good year in Double-A in '11 and in Triple-A in '12 will get him to the Yankees in September 2012 at age 24 (his birthday is in late September). If he continues to dominate the minors, the Yankees will find a place for him on the roster. ETA: September 2012...18 year old Gabriel Encinas, the Yankees' 6th round pick this year, is a 6"3 righty with great control. He is a sinkerballer with a curveball that has shown flashes and an OK changeup. He could be something in the future. He has yet to make his pro debut. ETA: September 2014 (?)... 21 year old reliever Thomas Kahnle, the Yankee 5th round pick in 2010, had a nice pro debut, posting a 0.56 ERA in 11 relief apperances for SS-A Staten Island. Not that those stats mean so much, but it's always positive to put up a 0.56 ERA at any level. Maybe we'll see him at some point. ETA: September 2013...27 year old starter Lance Pendelton went 12-5 with a 3.61 ERA and 133 K's in 27 starts, 2 relief apperances, and 154.2 IP. He is a bit old, but he has a chance to make an impact in the majors in the near future, probably as a reliever. He has 14 career relief appearances in the minors. He better make the majors soon if he ever wants a chance, with Brackman and Phelps coming. ETA: Sometime in 2011, if ever... 25 year old switch-pitcher Pat Venditte went 5-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 89 K's in 43 relief apperances, 6 saves, and 74.2 IP between High-A and Double-A. But, he struggled at Double-A, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in 2 relief appearances. Venditte will certainly have to turn that around in '11. Already 25 years old, Venditte better dominate Double-A in '11 and Triple-A in '12 and get promoted by September '12 at age 27. He'll make it to the majors eventually because he's such a novelty, but if he ever wants to be a quality reliever in the majors, he better get there quickly. ETA: September 2012

Many of the players I have mentioned will never make the majors, but there is a good chance that a couple of the players I mentioned will be All-Stars for the Yankees.

Brackman finally shows his potential

Andrew Brackman has always had a major league body. The 2007 first rounder (30th overall) by the Yankees is 6"10, 240 pounds. Of course, that great size gives him great stuff. He throws a mid-90's fastball with a curveball that's just as effective. He also mixes in a changeup. So, why is Brackman only showing his potential now? Well, shortly after being drafted, he underwent Tommy John surgery and didn't make his minors debut until '08. '08 was a conplete disaster for Brackman. Altough he only gave up a hit per inning and had an 8.7 K/9, he went 2-12 with a 5.91 ERA for Low-A Charleston. The reason; a terrible 6.4 BB/9. But, pitchers always have problems their first year after Tommy John surgery, so the Yankees remained patient. In '09, their patience finally paid off. To start off '09, Brackman went 5-4 with a 5.10 ERA in 12 starts for High-A Tampa. That doesn't sound so good, but he lowered his BB/9 to 1.4 while keeping his K/9 at 8.4. But, he gave up 7 more hits than innings pitched. The Yankees noticed the improvement in Brackman's BB/9, and promoted him to Double-A Trenton. Brackman has shined in Double-A. He has gone just 3-7, but with a 3.68 ERA, a 8.7 K/9, a still decent 4.0 BB/9, and just 1.1 more hits than innings pitched. He just hasn't gotten very much run support. This is the Brackman that the Yankees drafted and the 1st round. If Brackman continues to improve, look for him to make the big leagues by the end of 2011 and compete for a rotation spot by 2012 or 2013.

A decade of Yankee first round picks

We all remember the days when the Yankee farm system was a complete joke. The Yankees always drafted badly and when they did have a good prospect, they traded him for a veteran. But, the Yankee farm system has turned around the last few years, starting with Phil Hughes being drafted in 2004. Let's look at the Yankee 1st round picks since 2000 to see if the Yankees have improved, at least in terms of their first round picks.

In 2000, the Yankees drafted catcher David Parrish with the 28th pick in the draft. The Yankees also drafted him in the 10th round in 1997, but he didn't sign. Parrish had the potential to be a great defensive catcher. He threw out 30% of attempted base stealers his first 3 years in the minors. But, he made too many errors behind the plate, and never hit above .253 any of his years in the minors for the Yankees. He ended being a journeyman minor leaguer who never made the majors. Grade: F

With the 23rd pick in 2001, the Yankees selected Florida State outfielder John-Ford Griffin (no, his name is not a typo). At Short Season-A Staten Island in '01, he had a great season, hitting .311 with 17 doubles, 5 homers, 43 RBI, 10 SB, and a .413 OBP in 66 games. But, he was lost in the outfield, posting a .943 Fld%. In '02, he hit .267 with 16 doubles, 3 homers, 31 RBI, and a .344 OBP in 65 games for High-A Tampa before being promoted to Double-A Norwich. He hit .328 for Norwich with 3 doubles, 5 homers, 10 RBI, and a .400 OBP in 18 games. With his trade value at its absolute highest, the Yankees traded him to the A's as part of the blockbuster 3-team deal that sent Ted Lilly to Oakland, Carlos Pena to Detroit, Jeff Weaver to the Yankees, and Jeremy Bonderman to the Tigers. After hitting just .143 in 2 games for Double-A Midland, Oakland traded him to the Blue Jays for a player to be named (Jason Perry). He never hit .280 in any of his years in the Toronto, but he hit 13 homers in '03, 22 homers in '04, and 30 homers in '05. He made his major league debut in '05 for Toronto, hitting .308 with 1 homer and 6 RBI in 7 games. He also played in the majors for Toronto in '07, hitting .300 with 1 homer and 3 RBI in 6 games. Griffin played in the minors for the Dodgers and Cubs to finish off his career. He was pretty much a journeyman minor leaguer who had a couple of "cups of coffee" in the big leagues. But, he did have a role in the Jeff Weaver trade. Grade: D+

The Yankees had no 1st round pick in '02. In the 2nd round, they drafted RHP Brandon Weeden. He went 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 30 K's 7 starts, 4 relief appearances, and 34.2 IP in '02 for the Rookie ball Gulf Coast League Yankees. In '03, he went 2-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 31 K's in 9 starts and 3 relief appearances for the Rookie ball Gulf Coast League Yankees and the Short Season-A Staten Island Yankees. He was promptly traded to the Dodgers in the Kevin Brown deal. After posting ERA's of 5.39 and 5.70 at Low-A Columbus for LA, he was a Rule 5 draft pick (Triple-A portion) by the Royals and he posted a 6.03 ERA for them. Weeden went back to school, going to Oklahoma State University. He is now in position to be their starting quarterback this upcoming season, after starting QB Zac Robinson was drafted by the New England Patriots. Weeden did pretty well in the low levels of the minors for the Yankees and served a role in the Brown trade before completely falling apart. Grade: C-

There was a point when it seemed that 2003 first round pick Eric Duncan was going to be a star. Duncan, a 3rd baseman and the 27th overall pick in the '03 draft, hit .301 between the GCL and Staten Island Yanks in '03, with 17 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 6 triples, and a .364 OBP in 61 games. He then took his power up a notch in '04 between Low-A Battle Creek and High-A Tampa, hitting just .258, but with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 83 RBI, 75 runs, and a .357 OBP in 129 games. Duncan never hit that well again, and was stuck behind some guy named Alex Rodriguez at 3rd base. He was moved to 1st base in '06, but never hit well enough to be called up when Jason Giambi was injured. Duncan is hitting .285 right now as a Double-A utilityman for the Braves, but with just 4 homers. Duncan started off strong, but just completely fell apart. Grade: D

In 2004, the change started. The Yankees drafted some guy named Phil Hughes with the 23rd pick in the draft, who is 11-3 with a 3.99 ERA for the Yankees so far in '10. He struggled in '08 to the tune of a 6.62 ERA, but got back on track in '09 as a reliever and now is a pretty good starter. Grade: A

2005 first rounder (17th overall) C.J. Henry, a SS, never hit over .250 any year in the minors, although he was part of the Bobby Abreu trade. He is now a guard on the Kansas Jayhawks basketball team. At least he was part of that trade. Grade: D+

In 2006, the Yankees drafted RHP Ian Kennedy with the 21st overall pick in the draft. Kennedy never had an ERA over 2.22 any year in the minors, but he posted a 6.03 ERA for the Yankees, including an 8.17 ERA in '08. He was part of the Curtis Granderson. Kennedy was a decent pick, but he certainly didn't live up to expectations. Grade: B

In 2007, the Yankees drafted RHP Andrew Brackman with the 30th overall pick. He immediately had Tommy John surgery after he was drafted, and didn't make his minor league debut until 2009. He went 2-12 with a 5.91 ERA in '09, but he has rebounded from a terrible start in '10 (13.50 ERA after 2 starts) to post a 4.94 ERA between High-A and Double-A. He still has a shot to make an impact in the future for the Yankees. Grade: B

In 2008, the Yankees drafted high school RHP Gerrit Cole. Cole didn't sign, and went to UCLA. After going 11-4 with a 3.37 ERA in '09 for the Bruins, he could be the number 1 pick in the 2011 MLB draft. The Yanks picked a great talent, but this was a terrible pick because they couldn't sign him. Grade: F+ (the plus is for effort)

In 2009, the Yankees drafted 5-tool OF Slade Heathcott with the 29th overall pick in the draft. He is hitting .277 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 13 RBI, 8 SB, 19 runs, and a .351 OBP in 34 games. He hasn't done very well so far, but its hard to tell how good a player is through 37 pro games. At least he's stealing bases. Grade: ?

In 2010, the Yankees drafted high school SS Cito Culver with the 30th overall pick in the draft. Culver is the heir-apparent to Derek Jeter. After signing quickly, he is hitting .237 for the Rookie ball GCL Yankees with 3 doubles, 0 homers, 6 RBI, 1 triple, 1 SB, 8 runs, and a .310 OBP in 21 games. Definitely too early to tell for him. Grade: ?

The Yankees have improved in terms of drafting their first round picks. Their top picks from 2000-2003 were complete disaster, while 3 out of their 5 1st round picks from 2004-2008 were at least decent picks, and Cole would have been a great pick if they signed him. Their 1st rounders in 2009 and 2010 both have potential.