The Yankees will eventually re-sign Derek Jeter. That's pretty much a given. But, should they really let him go? Ignoring Jeter's legacy and all that, and assuming the Yankees don't sign or trade for a big-name shortstop, Eduardo Nunez will be, or at least compete for, the starting shortstop job. Is he anywhere near as good as Jeter is right now? Despite Jeter's down year, he still did OK. Nunez is unproven. Would handing him the starting job be a good idea?
Let's talk about Nunez. Nunez burst onto the scene in 2005, hitting .313 at SS-A Staten Island. But, from '06 to '08, he hit just .241. He did steal 22 bases in '06 and 29 in '07, but you just can't hit .240. Also, his OBP's over that time frame were just .261, .305, and .305 again. But in '09, he hit .322 at Double-A Trenton with 26 doubles, 9 homers, 55 RBI, 19 SB, and a .349 OBP in 123 games. In '10, he was promoted to Triple-A Scranton, and he did well again, hitting .289 with 25 doubles, 4 homers, 50 RBI, 23 SB, and a .340 OBP in 118 games. Then, when A-rod went down in August, Nunez was promoted to the majors and did pretty well, hitting .280 with 1 double, 1 homer, 7 RBI, 5 SB (0 CS), 12 runs and a .321 OBP in 30 games. He posted just a .944 Fld% at 3B (1 error), but posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% at SS. His RF/9 (range factor per 9 innings) at SS was 5.26- Jeter, the AL Gold Glove winner, posted just a 3.78 RF/9! Nunez is a definitely better defensive shortstop than Jeter! Jeter NEVER posted a RF/9 anywhere near as high as 5.26! (His highest was 4.76 in '05.)
Even Nunez's .280 BA- it was certainly better than Jeter's .270 BA! Let's look at Jeter's 2010 stats: the aforementioned .270 BA, 30 doubles, 10 homers, 67 RBI, 18 SB, 111 runs, and a .340 OBP in 157 games. He had 663 AB's. Nunez had 50. If you multiply Nunez's stats by 13.26 (50 X 13.26= 663), he would have still hit .280, but with 13 doubles, 13 homers, 93 RBI, 66 SB, 159 runs, and the same .321 OBP. Those are ridiculous numbers! There's no way Nunez will EVER have a year like that, but if you project his 2010 numbers over 400 AB's (multiply his stats by 8), he would have hit .280 with 8 doubles, 8 homers, 56 RBI, 40 SB, 96 runs, and a .321 OBP. Those are still All-Star caliber numbers! (I have to note that his 12 runs in '10, and therefore his runs projection for 663 and 400 AB's, are a bit inflated because he appeared in 7 games as a pinch-runner, scoring 3 runs, a quarter of his season total.) You can definitely make an argument that if Nunez was given a starting job in '10, he would be a better player than Jeter would be as a starter in '10. Jeter is declining, while Nunez is just 23- he will only improve. Over the next 5 years, Nunez would certainly put up better numbers as a starter than Jeter would. You can argue the other way for 2011, but not for the next 5 years. It would be a better move for the Yankees to let Jeter leave and make Nunez the starter in 2011. Unfortunately, it won't happen.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Yankees sign pair of lefties
The Yankees have agreed to deals with left-handed pitchers Neal Cotts and Daniel Martinez. They are very different pitchers: Cotts is a 30 year old lefty reliever while Martinez is a 20 year old pitcher who has both started games and relieved. Cotts has a chance to make an impact as the second lefty in the Yankee bullpen (since Damaso Marte is hurt), while Martinez is a long-term project.
Cotts, who will turn 31 in March, missed all of 2010 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. However, when healthy, he's can be very effective. Cotts was a second round pick by the Athletics in 2001, but was traded to the White Sox in 2003. After a brief cup of coffee in '03 as a starter, Cotts was converted to a reliever. Although he struggled his way a 5.65 ERA in '04, Cotts was incredible in '05, posting a 1.94 ERA and 58 K's in 69 relief appearances, and in typical lefty specialist fashion, just 60 IP. But, he posted just a 5.17 ERA in '06 and was traded to the Cubs. In '07, Cotts spent most of the year in the minors, but posted a 4.86 ERA in the majors in 16 appearances. But, he was back on track in '08, posting a 4.29 ERA and 43 K's in 50 appearances but just 35.2 IP. Cotts posted a 7.36 ERA in '09 in 19 appearances, but that was probably because of his elbow injury that would require surgery. Cotts has struck out a lot of batters throughout his career (8.3 per 9 innings), but he has walked too many guys (4.6 BB/9). For his career, Cotts has just a 1.79 K/BB ratio. But, when Cotts posted a 2.00 K/BB or better, he had his 2 best seasons, '05 and '08. Cotts certainly isn't a great player, but if healthy, he could potentially be a nice complement to Boone Logan in the bullpen.
Martinez has yet to harness his potential. He was signed by the Reds in 2007, but he never left Rookie ball. The reason was his terrible walk rate. Martinez has a 3.89 career ERA in the minors and a 7.7 K/9, but he has posted a 5.7 BB/9. He was so bad in '10, posting a decent 4.32 ERA but walking 18 against 16 K's, that the Reds released him. He's a long shot to reach the majors, but if Nardi Contreras (Yankees minor league pitching coordinator) or somebody can teach him some control, he could be a good pitcher.
Cotts, who will turn 31 in March, missed all of 2010 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. However, when healthy, he's can be very effective. Cotts was a second round pick by the Athletics in 2001, but was traded to the White Sox in 2003. After a brief cup of coffee in '03 as a starter, Cotts was converted to a reliever. Although he struggled his way a 5.65 ERA in '04, Cotts was incredible in '05, posting a 1.94 ERA and 58 K's in 69 relief appearances, and in typical lefty specialist fashion, just 60 IP. But, he posted just a 5.17 ERA in '06 and was traded to the Cubs. In '07, Cotts spent most of the year in the minors, but posted a 4.86 ERA in the majors in 16 appearances. But, he was back on track in '08, posting a 4.29 ERA and 43 K's in 50 appearances but just 35.2 IP. Cotts posted a 7.36 ERA in '09 in 19 appearances, but that was probably because of his elbow injury that would require surgery. Cotts has struck out a lot of batters throughout his career (8.3 per 9 innings), but he has walked too many guys (4.6 BB/9). For his career, Cotts has just a 1.79 K/BB ratio. But, when Cotts posted a 2.00 K/BB or better, he had his 2 best seasons, '05 and '08. Cotts certainly isn't a great player, but if healthy, he could potentially be a nice complement to Boone Logan in the bullpen.
Martinez has yet to harness his potential. He was signed by the Reds in 2007, but he never left Rookie ball. The reason was his terrible walk rate. Martinez has a 3.89 career ERA in the minors and a 7.7 K/9, but he has posted a 5.7 BB/9. He was so bad in '10, posting a decent 4.32 ERA but walking 18 against 16 K's, that the Reds released him. He's a long shot to reach the majors, but if Nardi Contreras (Yankees minor league pitching coordinator) or somebody can teach him some control, he could be a good pitcher.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Yankees acquire former first round pick Cody Johnson
The Yankees have acquired Cody Johnson from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for cash. Johnson was the Braves first round pick out of high school in 2006, 24th overall. In 2006, he had a terrible pro debut, hitting just .184 with 6 doubles, 1 homer, 16 RBI, 2 SB, and a .260 OBP in 32 games at Rookie ball. He posted just a .933 OBP in the outfield with 0 assists (for some reason, no position in the outfield is specified on baseball-reference.com). Johnson was so bad that the Braves had to send him back to Rookie ball in '07. That season, he played very well offensively, hitting .305 with 18 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 7 SB, and a .374 OBP in 63 games. He posted just a .931 Fld% in left field, although he did post 5 oufield assists. Although he was at such a low level in the minors, Johnson still showed that he certainly had the first-round talent that the Braves had seen in him.
In '08, Johnson was promoted to Low-A (skipping Short Season-A), and he did pretty well, hitting just .252 in 127 games, with but with 26 doubles, 26 homers, 89 RBI, and 8 SB, although he posted just a .307 OBP. He even made strides defensively, posting a .946 Fld% while still posting 5 assists. The one problem for Johnson was strikeouts- he struck out 177 times, which would have led the AL in '10. Johnson struck out 180 times in '09, but had a better season, hitting .242 with 18 doubles, 32 homers, 87 RBI, 10 SB, and a vastly improved .345 OBP in 122 games at High-A. He was briefly promoted to Double-A, where he got just 4 hits in 22 AB for a .182 BA, but he made the most of them, driving in 3 runs. He also improved even more defensively, posting a .961 Fld% in 88 games in LF and 8 games in RF with 9 assists. He turned 21 in August of '09, and appeared to be not too far from the majors.
In '10, Johnson was promoted to Double-A. He hit just .189 with 6 doubles, 10 homers, 31 RBI, 9 SB, and a .269 OBP in 75 games. He was demoted briefly in July to Rookie ball in attempt to get his confidence back, but he hit just .250 with 2 homers and 4 RBI in 6 games. He closed the season out at High-A, hitting .264 with 4 doubles, 6 homers, 25 RBI, and a .333 OBP in 25 games. He also played worse defensively, posting a .945 Fld% with 6 assists.
The Yankees got Johnson for nothing but cash, so it's a very low-risk gamble. Johnson clearly has power- he has hit 66 homers the last 3 seasons. If he can post a league-average BA, he could be a good player, maybe Nick Swisher-esque, hitting 30 homers a season. If not, he can be compared to former Yankee Shelley Duncan. Duncan hit 19 homers per season from '06 to '09, his last 4 full seasons in the minors (that number increases to 21 homers per season if you add in 8 major league homers over those 4 seasons). What has he amounted to? Well, he hit .231 with 11 homers as a part-time player for Cleveland in '10. The good news for Johnson is that he's just 22. Unlike Duncan, he has some time to get himself together. If he can do that, he will be a good player.
In '08, Johnson was promoted to Low-A (skipping Short Season-A), and he did pretty well, hitting just .252 in 127 games, with but with 26 doubles, 26 homers, 89 RBI, and 8 SB, although he posted just a .307 OBP. He even made strides defensively, posting a .946 Fld% while still posting 5 assists. The one problem for Johnson was strikeouts- he struck out 177 times, which would have led the AL in '10. Johnson struck out 180 times in '09, but had a better season, hitting .242 with 18 doubles, 32 homers, 87 RBI, 10 SB, and a vastly improved .345 OBP in 122 games at High-A. He was briefly promoted to Double-A, where he got just 4 hits in 22 AB for a .182 BA, but he made the most of them, driving in 3 runs. He also improved even more defensively, posting a .961 Fld% in 88 games in LF and 8 games in RF with 9 assists. He turned 21 in August of '09, and appeared to be not too far from the majors.
In '10, Johnson was promoted to Double-A. He hit just .189 with 6 doubles, 10 homers, 31 RBI, 9 SB, and a .269 OBP in 75 games. He was demoted briefly in July to Rookie ball in attempt to get his confidence back, but he hit just .250 with 2 homers and 4 RBI in 6 games. He closed the season out at High-A, hitting .264 with 4 doubles, 6 homers, 25 RBI, and a .333 OBP in 25 games. He also played worse defensively, posting a .945 Fld% with 6 assists.
The Yankees got Johnson for nothing but cash, so it's a very low-risk gamble. Johnson clearly has power- he has hit 66 homers the last 3 seasons. If he can post a league-average BA, he could be a good player, maybe Nick Swisher-esque, hitting 30 homers a season. If not, he can be compared to former Yankee Shelley Duncan. Duncan hit 19 homers per season from '06 to '09, his last 4 full seasons in the minors (that number increases to 21 homers per season if you add in 8 major league homers over those 4 seasons). What has he amounted to? Well, he hit .231 with 11 homers as a part-time player for Cleveland in '10. The good news for Johnson is that he's just 22. Unlike Duncan, he has some time to get himself together. If he can do that, he will be a good player.
Yankees-Diamondbacks trade
The Yankees have traded minor league first baseman Juan Miranda to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect Scottie Allen.
Miranda, who will turn 28 in April, hit .285 at Triple-A in '10 with 15 doubles, 15 homers, 43 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 80 games. He played pretty well defensively at first base, posting a .992 Fld%. Miranda also hit .219 in 30 games with the Yankees, with 2 doubles, 3 homers, 10 RBI, and a .296 OBP. He didn't make any errors in 13 games at first base.
Allen, who will turn 20 in July, was Arizona's 11th round draft pick in '09. He worked out of the bullpen at Rookie ball in '09, going 1-0 with a 0.51 ERA and 16 K's in 12 relief appearances and 17.2 IP. He walked 7, a few too many, but still managed a 2.29 K/BB ratio. He was so dominant because he allowed just 9 hits, good for an amazing 4.6 H/9 (hits per 9 innings) ratio, and 0 homers. In '10, Allen was a starter at Short Season-A, and went 4-4 with a 4.73 ERA and 79 K's in 16 starts and 78 IP. He walked just 22 and posted a 3.59 K/BB, but struggled because he allowed 88 hits, which amounts to a bad 10.2 H/9 ratio. He also allowed 5 homers, which comes out to a 0.6 HR/9 ratio.
At 27 years old going on 28, Miranda isn't really a prospect anymore and the Yankees had no need for him. So, the traded him to the D-backs, who for the moment don't have a starting first baseman, and got a prospect, Allen, in return. Allen has potential. He has posted good K/BB ratios both of his years in the minors, and when he allowed less than a hit per inning in '09, he did very well. If he does that consistently, he will be a great prospect and potentially a great major league pitcher.
Miranda, who will turn 28 in April, hit .285 at Triple-A in '10 with 15 doubles, 15 homers, 43 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 80 games. He played pretty well defensively at first base, posting a .992 Fld%. Miranda also hit .219 in 30 games with the Yankees, with 2 doubles, 3 homers, 10 RBI, and a .296 OBP. He didn't make any errors in 13 games at first base.
Allen, who will turn 20 in July, was Arizona's 11th round draft pick in '09. He worked out of the bullpen at Rookie ball in '09, going 1-0 with a 0.51 ERA and 16 K's in 12 relief appearances and 17.2 IP. He walked 7, a few too many, but still managed a 2.29 K/BB ratio. He was so dominant because he allowed just 9 hits, good for an amazing 4.6 H/9 (hits per 9 innings) ratio, and 0 homers. In '10, Allen was a starter at Short Season-A, and went 4-4 with a 4.73 ERA and 79 K's in 16 starts and 78 IP. He walked just 22 and posted a 3.59 K/BB, but struggled because he allowed 88 hits, which amounts to a bad 10.2 H/9 ratio. He also allowed 5 homers, which comes out to a 0.6 HR/9 ratio.
At 27 years old going on 28, Miranda isn't really a prospect anymore and the Yankees had no need for him. So, the traded him to the D-backs, who for the moment don't have a starting first baseman, and got a prospect, Allen, in return. Allen has potential. He has posted good K/BB ratios both of his years in the minors, and when he allowed less than a hit per inning in '09, he did very well. If he does that consistently, he will be a great prospect and potentially a great major league pitcher.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Uggla to Atlanta
The Florida Marlins have traded star second baseman Dan Uggla to the Atlanda Braves in exchange for utility player Omar Infante and lefty reliever Mike Dunn.
Uggla and the Marlins could not agree on a contract extension, so the Marlins traded him. (I talked about why in this post: "Why are the Florida Marlins in a bad situation with Dan Uggla? The Arizona Diamondbacks".) The Marlins reportedly offered Uggla a 4-year, 48 million dollar extension, but Uggla and his agent wanted a 5-year, 71 million dollar deal. The Braves will most likely give Uggla what he wants. Uggla had a great year in '10, hitting .287 with 31 doubles, 33 homers, 105 RBI, and a .369 OBP in 159 games, and winning the NL Silver Slugger Award at second base. He posted a below-average .976 Fld% at second base with below average range, but I remember him making a few web gems. He's not a good defensive player, but his offense certainly makes up for it. But, as I said in my previous post, Uggla will be 31 in March. The Marlins didn't want to give him an extension that would take him to him 36th birthday, when he certainly would be beginning to decline. In contrast to the Marlins, who are rebuilding, the Braves are in win-now mode. They acquired Uggla in an attempt to make a World Series within a few years.
Infante is a very interesting player. He's a .300 hitter who plays everywhere. He has played over 340, 225, and 101 games respectively at second base, third base, and shortstop. He has also played 57 games in LF, 32 games in CF, and 15 games in RF. He has never played first base or catcher, and surprisingly, he has never pitched. Still, he's a very valuable player. In '10, he hit .321 with 15 doubles, 8 homers, 47 RBI, 7 steals, and a .359 OBP in 134 games. The .321 BA was third in the NL. He started 63 games at second, 18 at SS. 12 games at third, 8 games in LF, and 5 in RF. His great versatility even earned him an All-Star selection (he didn't play). For the Marlins, Infante could basically by a stop-gap at any position they need him to be until their top prospect at that position is ready. It's always nice to have a player like Infante. He can be the starter at third base now (with Chris Coghlan playing second base, his natural position), and then move into a utility role when top third base prospect Matt Dominguez makes it to the majors. Infante will help the team now as a starting infielder, while they're rebuilding, and could potentially help the team as a utility-man if they become a contender.
Dunn will be playing for his third team in 3 years. Either everyone wants him, or no one wants him. Dunn apparently has a promising future as a lefty specialist. In '10 for the Braves, he went 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 27 K's in 25 relief appearances and 19 IP. He shuts down lefties, holding them to a .211 BA. But, he holds righties to a .212 BA apparently showing that he could be a setup man shutting down both lefties and righties. Really, Dunn is much better against lefties. Although lefties were only .001 worse against him, his K/BB against them was 3.00: 18 K's versus 6 walks in 44 plate appearances. But, against the righties, his K/BB was just 0.82: 11 K's versus 12 walks. He's clearly much more comfortable against lefties. Even as just a lefty specialist, Dunn will be a valuable part of the Marlins' bullpen.
Uggla and the Marlins could not agree on a contract extension, so the Marlins traded him. (I talked about why in this post: "Why are the Florida Marlins in a bad situation with Dan Uggla? The Arizona Diamondbacks".) The Marlins reportedly offered Uggla a 4-year, 48 million dollar extension, but Uggla and his agent wanted a 5-year, 71 million dollar deal. The Braves will most likely give Uggla what he wants. Uggla had a great year in '10, hitting .287 with 31 doubles, 33 homers, 105 RBI, and a .369 OBP in 159 games, and winning the NL Silver Slugger Award at second base. He posted a below-average .976 Fld% at second base with below average range, but I remember him making a few web gems. He's not a good defensive player, but his offense certainly makes up for it. But, as I said in my previous post, Uggla will be 31 in March. The Marlins didn't want to give him an extension that would take him to him 36th birthday, when he certainly would be beginning to decline. In contrast to the Marlins, who are rebuilding, the Braves are in win-now mode. They acquired Uggla in an attempt to make a World Series within a few years.
Infante is a very interesting player. He's a .300 hitter who plays everywhere. He has played over 340, 225, and 101 games respectively at second base, third base, and shortstop. He has also played 57 games in LF, 32 games in CF, and 15 games in RF. He has never played first base or catcher, and surprisingly, he has never pitched. Still, he's a very valuable player. In '10, he hit .321 with 15 doubles, 8 homers, 47 RBI, 7 steals, and a .359 OBP in 134 games. The .321 BA was third in the NL. He started 63 games at second, 18 at SS. 12 games at third, 8 games in LF, and 5 in RF. His great versatility even earned him an All-Star selection (he didn't play). For the Marlins, Infante could basically by a stop-gap at any position they need him to be until their top prospect at that position is ready. It's always nice to have a player like Infante. He can be the starter at third base now (with Chris Coghlan playing second base, his natural position), and then move into a utility role when top third base prospect Matt Dominguez makes it to the majors. Infante will help the team now as a starting infielder, while they're rebuilding, and could potentially help the team as a utility-man if they become a contender.
Dunn will be playing for his third team in 3 years. Either everyone wants him, or no one wants him. Dunn apparently has a promising future as a lefty specialist. In '10 for the Braves, he went 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 27 K's in 25 relief appearances and 19 IP. He shuts down lefties, holding them to a .211 BA. But, he holds righties to a .212 BA apparently showing that he could be a setup man shutting down both lefties and righties. Really, Dunn is much better against lefties. Although lefties were only .001 worse against him, his K/BB against them was 3.00: 18 K's versus 6 walks in 44 plate appearances. But, against the righties, his K/BB was just 0.82: 11 K's versus 12 walks. He's clearly much more comfortable against lefties. Even as just a lefty specialist, Dunn will be a valuable part of the Marlins' bullpen.
The greatest Yankee: you've never heard of: Snuffy Stirnweiss
If I asked you who was the greatest Yankee from 1944 to 1945 during World War II, what would you say? Joe Dimaggio? No, he was away at war. Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, or Whitey Ford? No, they arrived in the majors later. Bill Dickey? No, he didn't play in '44 or '45 (he would return in 1946 as a player-manager). It was George Henry "Snuffy" Stirnweiss.
Stirnweiss debuted as a 24 year old in 1943. He didn't do terribly, hitting just .219 with 8 doubles, 1 homer, 25 RBI, 4 triples, 11 SB, and a .333 OBP in 83 games, and posting a .938 Fld% in 68 games at SS and an 1.000 Fld% in 4 games at 2B, which would be his full-time position pretty much the rest of his career. (If you think Stirnweiss' stats were bad, see my post "The sad one-year career of Ben Conroy".) Stirnweiss certainly didn't seem like anything special. But, in 1944, Stirnweiss became a star. He hit .319 with 35 doubles, 8 homers, 43 RBI, 16 triples (bold= league leader in that stat), 55 SB, 205 hits, 125 runs, and a .389 OBP in 723 plate appearances and 643 at bats in 154 games. He was also amazing defensively, posting an above-average .982 Fld% with great range. Somehow he finished 4th in the MVP voting (behind Hal Newhouser (29-9, 2.22), Dizzy Trout (27-14, 2.12), and Vern Stevens (.293, 20 HR, 108 RBI). Did they not take into account that he led the league in 4 significant categories (and plate appearances, which doesn't really mean that much other than that you were a leadoff hitter on a team that scores some runs) plus putouts, assists, and Fld% at second base! Even is Newhouser and Trout were better than him, how could he have finished behind Vern Stevens, who only led the league in RBI? Even though he finished 4th in the MVP voting, Stirnweiss was certainly the top hitter in the AL in 1944.
In 1945, Stirnweiss led the league in even more categories! He posted a .309 BA with 32 doubles, 10 homers, 64 RBI, 22 triples, 33 SB, 195 hits, 107 runs, and a .385 OBP in 717 plate appearances and 632 AB in 152 games. He also led the league in slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. His Fld% did go down to .970 (the league average), but that's because he showed better rage than in '44, and made more errors because he got to more batted balls than other second baseman (proved by the fact that he led the AL in putouts by a second baseman despite all the errors). He finished 3rd in the AL MVP voting behind Newhouser again (25-9, 1.81) and Eddie Mayo (I have no idea how he finished second- he hit .285 with 24 doubles, 10 homers, 54 RBI, 3 triples, 7 SB, 143 hits, 71 runs, and a .347 OBP although he did lead AL second basemen in Fld% at .980). Stirnweiss was once again the top position player in the AL.
In 1946, World War II was over, and the players who went to war came back, such as Joe Dimaggio, Ted Williams, and Bob Feller. Stirnweiss wasn't the same player. In 1946, Stirnweiss hit .251 with 19 doubles 0 homers, 37 RBI, 7 triples, 18 SB, 75 runs, and a .340 OBP in 129 games. As a starting third baseman for the only time in his carer, Stirnweiss was ridiculous, posting a .991 Fld% in 79 games, way higher then the league average of .945 at the position. He also posted an above-average .979 Fld% in 46 games at 2B and a .917 Fld% in 4 games at SS. Ironically in 1946, not either of his peak years of 1944 and 1945, Stirnweiss was an All-star for the only time.
In 1947, Stirnweiss had the best season of his career after 1945. He hit .256 with 18 doubles, 5 homers, 41 RBI, 8 triples, 5 SB, 102 runs, and a .358 OBP in 148 games. He posted an above-average .983 Fld% at second base. In '48, Stirnwiess had nearly as good of a season, hitting .252 with 20 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, 7 triples, 5 SB, 90 runs, and a .360 OBP in 141 games. His Fld% at second base was .993, significantly over the league average .976 at second base. In 1949, Stirnweiss turned 30 and his end drew near. He played in just 70 games, hitting .261 with 8 doubles, 0 homers, 11 RBI, 2 triples, 3 SB, 29 runs, and a .380 OBP. His Fld% declined to .974, the league average, although he did post a 1.000 Fld% in 4 games at third base. He wasn't the same player anymore.
In 1950, the end came for Stirnweiss as a Yankee. On June 15th, Stirnweiss was part of a blockbuster 7 player trade between the Yankees and St. Louis Browns. The change of scenery actually made things worse for Stirnweiss, as he hit just .218 with the Browns, with 16 doubles, 1 homer, 24 RBI, 2 triples, 3 SB, 32 runs, and a .324 OBP in 93 games (he had hit .000 in 7 games and 2 AB for the Yankees). He posted below-average fielding percentages at both second based and third base: .975 Fld% in 66 games at second, and a .955 Fld% in 31 games at third. He also posted a way below-average .875 Fld% in 5 games at shortstop. Stirnweiss was traded to the Cleveland Indians right before the 1951 season, and he hit .216 with the Indians, with 1 double, 1 homer, 4 RBI, and a .373 OBP in 50 games (but just 88 AB). He finished his career very strong defensively, posting an above-average .993 Fld% in 25 games at second base, and a 1.000 Fld% in 2 games at third base. After one game as a defensive replacement in 1952, Stirnweiss' career was over.
Snuffy Stirnweiss was not a great hitter. But, he had perfect timing to start his career during World War II, and he was probably the best hitter in the AL during that time period. Once the veterans came back, Stirnweiss was just a league average player. But, even though the level of competition was much lower during World War II, you can't deny that Stirnweiss had magical seasons in both 1944 and 1945.
What's ironic about Stirnweiss' timing being so lucky to begin his career is how unlucky he was at the end of life. In 1958, at the tender age of 39, Stirnweiss was killed in the Newark Bay rail incident. The train that he was on plunged into Newark Bay, killing 48 people including him.
Again, Snuffy Stirnweiss was not a great hitter. But, for those two seasons of 1944 and 1945, he played as well as any Yankee in history. Stirnweiss teaches us a valuable lesson: with the right opportunity, you can do anything.
Stirnweiss debuted as a 24 year old in 1943. He didn't do terribly, hitting just .219 with 8 doubles, 1 homer, 25 RBI, 4 triples, 11 SB, and a .333 OBP in 83 games, and posting a .938 Fld% in 68 games at SS and an 1.000 Fld% in 4 games at 2B, which would be his full-time position pretty much the rest of his career. (If you think Stirnweiss' stats were bad, see my post "The sad one-year career of Ben Conroy".) Stirnweiss certainly didn't seem like anything special. But, in 1944, Stirnweiss became a star. He hit .319 with 35 doubles, 8 homers, 43 RBI, 16 triples (bold= league leader in that stat), 55 SB, 205 hits, 125 runs, and a .389 OBP in 723 plate appearances and 643 at bats in 154 games. He was also amazing defensively, posting an above-average .982 Fld% with great range. Somehow he finished 4th in the MVP voting (behind Hal Newhouser (29-9, 2.22), Dizzy Trout (27-14, 2.12), and Vern Stevens (.293, 20 HR, 108 RBI). Did they not take into account that he led the league in 4 significant categories (and plate appearances, which doesn't really mean that much other than that you were a leadoff hitter on a team that scores some runs) plus putouts, assists, and Fld% at second base! Even is Newhouser and Trout were better than him, how could he have finished behind Vern Stevens, who only led the league in RBI? Even though he finished 4th in the MVP voting, Stirnweiss was certainly the top hitter in the AL in 1944.
In 1945, Stirnweiss led the league in even more categories! He posted a .309 BA with 32 doubles, 10 homers, 64 RBI, 22 triples, 33 SB, 195 hits, 107 runs, and a .385 OBP in 717 plate appearances and 632 AB in 152 games. He also led the league in slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. His Fld% did go down to .970 (the league average), but that's because he showed better rage than in '44, and made more errors because he got to more batted balls than other second baseman (proved by the fact that he led the AL in putouts by a second baseman despite all the errors). He finished 3rd in the AL MVP voting behind Newhouser again (25-9, 1.81) and Eddie Mayo (I have no idea how he finished second- he hit .285 with 24 doubles, 10 homers, 54 RBI, 3 triples, 7 SB, 143 hits, 71 runs, and a .347 OBP although he did lead AL second basemen in Fld% at .980). Stirnweiss was once again the top position player in the AL.
In 1946, World War II was over, and the players who went to war came back, such as Joe Dimaggio, Ted Williams, and Bob Feller. Stirnweiss wasn't the same player. In 1946, Stirnweiss hit .251 with 19 doubles 0 homers, 37 RBI, 7 triples, 18 SB, 75 runs, and a .340 OBP in 129 games. As a starting third baseman for the only time in his carer, Stirnweiss was ridiculous, posting a .991 Fld% in 79 games, way higher then the league average of .945 at the position. He also posted an above-average .979 Fld% in 46 games at 2B and a .917 Fld% in 4 games at SS. Ironically in 1946, not either of his peak years of 1944 and 1945, Stirnweiss was an All-star for the only time.
In 1947, Stirnweiss had the best season of his career after 1945. He hit .256 with 18 doubles, 5 homers, 41 RBI, 8 triples, 5 SB, 102 runs, and a .358 OBP in 148 games. He posted an above-average .983 Fld% at second base. In '48, Stirnwiess had nearly as good of a season, hitting .252 with 20 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, 7 triples, 5 SB, 90 runs, and a .360 OBP in 141 games. His Fld% at second base was .993, significantly over the league average .976 at second base. In 1949, Stirnweiss turned 30 and his end drew near. He played in just 70 games, hitting .261 with 8 doubles, 0 homers, 11 RBI, 2 triples, 3 SB, 29 runs, and a .380 OBP. His Fld% declined to .974, the league average, although he did post a 1.000 Fld% in 4 games at third base. He wasn't the same player anymore.
In 1950, the end came for Stirnweiss as a Yankee. On June 15th, Stirnweiss was part of a blockbuster 7 player trade between the Yankees and St. Louis Browns. The change of scenery actually made things worse for Stirnweiss, as he hit just .218 with the Browns, with 16 doubles, 1 homer, 24 RBI, 2 triples, 3 SB, 32 runs, and a .324 OBP in 93 games (he had hit .000 in 7 games and 2 AB for the Yankees). He posted below-average fielding percentages at both second based and third base: .975 Fld% in 66 games at second, and a .955 Fld% in 31 games at third. He also posted a way below-average .875 Fld% in 5 games at shortstop. Stirnweiss was traded to the Cleveland Indians right before the 1951 season, and he hit .216 with the Indians, with 1 double, 1 homer, 4 RBI, and a .373 OBP in 50 games (but just 88 AB). He finished his career very strong defensively, posting an above-average .993 Fld% in 25 games at second base, and a 1.000 Fld% in 2 games at third base. After one game as a defensive replacement in 1952, Stirnweiss' career was over.
Snuffy Stirnweiss was not a great hitter. But, he had perfect timing to start his career during World War II, and he was probably the best hitter in the AL during that time period. Once the veterans came back, Stirnweiss was just a league average player. But, even though the level of competition was much lower during World War II, you can't deny that Stirnweiss had magical seasons in both 1944 and 1945.
What's ironic about Stirnweiss' timing being so lucky to begin his career is how unlucky he was at the end of life. In 1958, at the tender age of 39, Stirnweiss was killed in the Newark Bay rail incident. The train that he was on plunged into Newark Bay, killing 48 people including him.
Again, Snuffy Stirnweiss was not a great hitter. But, for those two seasons of 1944 and 1945, he played as well as any Yankee in history. Stirnweiss teaches us a valuable lesson: with the right opportunity, you can do anything.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
The sad one-year career of Ben Conroy
I can assure all of you that this will be the first and last time that you will ever hear of Ben Conroy. Conroy was a 19 year old rookie in 1890 for the Philadelphia Athletics of the American Association (which is widely considered a major league). In 1890, his only season, he appeared in 117 games. Clearly, he was not some random minor leaguer who appeared in a couple games. He was the youngest player in the AA to appear in ten or more games. In those 117 games, Conroy played like no player I've ever seen before. He somehow lasted 117 games while hitting .171. Yeah, that's not a typo, .171. Was Conroy really that bad? Well, he did hit 13 doubles and 1 triple while stealing 17 bases. His OBP was .262, nearly .100 better than his BA, so that's pretty good. Defensively, he posted a .893 Fld% in 74 games at SS, which would be terrible today, but which was good for 3rd in the AA, in addition to a .947 Fld% in 42 games at 2B, which also would be bad today, but which was significantly above-average back then. He also posted an 1.000 Fld% in one game in CF. Maybe with a couple more seasons in the majors he would have developed into a decent player. But, right after the year, Conroy was sent back down to the minors and toiled there for 5 seasons, hitting .273, before retiring in 1897 at age 26.
What happened to America being a land of second chances? He was certainly a good enough fielder (compared to his peers) to remain on the team in some capacity. He probably could have been a defensive replacement and pinch-runner for some major league team! Well, 1890 was the last year of that Philadelphia Athletics franchise (there was another franchise called the Philadelphia Athletics that started in 1901 with the founding of the American League, and has become the Oakland A's of today). Conroy had terrible luck. If he had come to the big leagues one year earlier, he probably would have been in the big leagues in 1890 as well, and maybe with 2 years of experience, he would have gotten better in 1890 and been signed by another major league team.
What a sad story. He plays one full season in the majors, plays badly, and never gets another chance. Conroy is just one of many who this happened to in the late 1800's (and to a lesser extent, throughout baseball history). With a second chance, at least a couple of them could have become Hall of Famers.
What happened to America being a land of second chances? He was certainly a good enough fielder (compared to his peers) to remain on the team in some capacity. He probably could have been a defensive replacement and pinch-runner for some major league team! Well, 1890 was the last year of that Philadelphia Athletics franchise (there was another franchise called the Philadelphia Athletics that started in 1901 with the founding of the American League, and has become the Oakland A's of today). Conroy had terrible luck. If he had come to the big leagues one year earlier, he probably would have been in the big leagues in 1890 as well, and maybe with 2 years of experience, he would have gotten better in 1890 and been signed by another major league team.
What a sad story. He plays one full season in the majors, plays badly, and never gets another chance. Conroy is just one of many who this happened to in the late 1800's (and to a lesser extent, throughout baseball history). With a second chance, at least a couple of them could have become Hall of Famers.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Why are the Florida Marlins in a big situation with Dan Uggla? The Arizona Diamondbacks
Dan Uggla is a great player right now. He is the only second baseman in MLB history to hit 30 homers in 4 different seasons. In '10, he set career highs with 33 homers, 105 RBI, a .287 BA, and a .369 OBP. Although there are questions about his defense, his great offense at 2B certainly outweighs those concerns. It seems like a no-brainer that the Marlins should sign him long-term. But, Uggla is going to be 31 on March 11th. Still, the Marlins offered Uggla a 4-year, 48 million dollar contract extension and he declined it. Now the Marlins are looking to possibly trade Uggla. What should they do?
If Uggla was 2 or more years younger, I have no doubt that the Marlins would add in the 5th year to the contract to satisfy him. But, he's 31. Maybe he'll have a few more amazing seasons in him, but his decline is coming sooner rather than later. Late bloomer stories are nice, but in sports, they put you at a disadvantage. Again, don't get me wrong, Uggla is a great player, but he's not some 25 year old hotshot 2nd baseman. If he was 25 right now, the Marlins would offer him the same 6-year, 70 million dollar extension that they gave to Hanley Ramirez at age 25. Even if he was 28 like Robinson Cano is right now (Cano's birthday was October 22nd), he would get an enormous extension like the one that Cano is about to get from the Yankees. Even if he was one year younger he would have had more leverage in the negotiation and the Marlins would have offered him a bigger deal! But, he's 31. It's certainly unfortunate for him, but it's true.
Really, it's all the Arizona Diamondbacks' fault. The Diamondbacks drafted Uggla in the 11th round of the 2001 draft out of the University of Memphis. They started him at Short Season-A Yakima and he did pretty well, hitting .277 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 40 RBI, 8 SB, and a .341 in 72 games. In '02, Uggla was promoted to Low-A South Bend, but he struggled hitting just .199 with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 10 RBI, 0 SB, and a .299 OBP in 53 games. Why did the Diamondbacks leave him there for 53 games? After 53 games, they finally understood that he needed a change of scenery, and they promoted him to High-A Lancaster, where he showed some improvement, hitting .228 with 7 doubles, 3 homers, 16 RBI, 3 SB, and a .311 OBP in 54 games. In '03, the Diamondbacks sent Uggla back to Lancaster at age 23, and the move certainly paid off, as he hit .290 with 31 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, 7 triples, 24 SB, 104 runs, and a .355 OBP in 134 games. Uggla was able to develop some confidence and finally tap into his potential.
2004 was when the Diamondbacks messed up Uggla. They sent Uggla back to Lancaster to begin the year right after he dominated at that level. Hitting .290 with 23 homers isn't enough? And they kept him there for 37 games! After 37 dominant games in which Uggla hit .336, they finally promoted him to Double-A El Paso, where he hit .258 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 30 RBI, 10 SB, and a .301 OBP in 83 games. Are those good numbers? Certainly not, but what if he had 37 more games to adjust? In '05, he hit .297 at Double-A Tennessee (the affiliate moved) with 33 doubles, 21 homers, 87 RBI, 15 SB, 81 runs, and a .378 OBP in 135 games. After the season, Uggla was left off the D-backs' 40-man roster, and he was selected by the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft, starting a great career.
What if Uggla had been promoted to Double-A to begin '04? Well, let me present these 2 scenarios: Uggla struggles to begin '04 at Double-A, but he adjusts and ends up hitting .280 with 15 homers. He is promoted to the big league roster in September. He is the D-backs' starting 2nd baseman in '05 (moving Craig Counsell to SS and forcing Royce Clayton on the bench), and the D-backs don't trade for Orlando Hudson. Uggla becomes the team's star 2nd baseman, winning the NL Rookie of the Year in '05, beating out Ryan Howard, and they lock him up long term in either '07, '08, or '09. Uggla would have gotten an extra season in the majors and been more likely to get a nice long-term deal. Or, let's say Uggla struggles mightily both offensively and defensively in September of '04 and the D-backs elect to keep him off the 40-man roster. The Marlins draft him in the Rule 5 draft, and Uggla still wins the NL Rookie of the Year in '05, starting a great major league career.
Bottom line, Uggla should have been a starter in the majors one year earlier and it's unfortunate for him that it didn't happen because he isn't getting as much money as he would have if he was one year younger.
If Uggla was 2 or more years younger, I have no doubt that the Marlins would add in the 5th year to the contract to satisfy him. But, he's 31. Maybe he'll have a few more amazing seasons in him, but his decline is coming sooner rather than later. Late bloomer stories are nice, but in sports, they put you at a disadvantage. Again, don't get me wrong, Uggla is a great player, but he's not some 25 year old hotshot 2nd baseman. If he was 25 right now, the Marlins would offer him the same 6-year, 70 million dollar extension that they gave to Hanley Ramirez at age 25. Even if he was 28 like Robinson Cano is right now (Cano's birthday was October 22nd), he would get an enormous extension like the one that Cano is about to get from the Yankees. Even if he was one year younger he would have had more leverage in the negotiation and the Marlins would have offered him a bigger deal! But, he's 31. It's certainly unfortunate for him, but it's true.
Really, it's all the Arizona Diamondbacks' fault. The Diamondbacks drafted Uggla in the 11th round of the 2001 draft out of the University of Memphis. They started him at Short Season-A Yakima and he did pretty well, hitting .277 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 40 RBI, 8 SB, and a .341 in 72 games. In '02, Uggla was promoted to Low-A South Bend, but he struggled hitting just .199 with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 10 RBI, 0 SB, and a .299 OBP in 53 games. Why did the Diamondbacks leave him there for 53 games? After 53 games, they finally understood that he needed a change of scenery, and they promoted him to High-A Lancaster, where he showed some improvement, hitting .228 with 7 doubles, 3 homers, 16 RBI, 3 SB, and a .311 OBP in 54 games. In '03, the Diamondbacks sent Uggla back to Lancaster at age 23, and the move certainly paid off, as he hit .290 with 31 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, 7 triples, 24 SB, 104 runs, and a .355 OBP in 134 games. Uggla was able to develop some confidence and finally tap into his potential.
2004 was when the Diamondbacks messed up Uggla. They sent Uggla back to Lancaster to begin the year right after he dominated at that level. Hitting .290 with 23 homers isn't enough? And they kept him there for 37 games! After 37 dominant games in which Uggla hit .336, they finally promoted him to Double-A El Paso, where he hit .258 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 30 RBI, 10 SB, and a .301 OBP in 83 games. Are those good numbers? Certainly not, but what if he had 37 more games to adjust? In '05, he hit .297 at Double-A Tennessee (the affiliate moved) with 33 doubles, 21 homers, 87 RBI, 15 SB, 81 runs, and a .378 OBP in 135 games. After the season, Uggla was left off the D-backs' 40-man roster, and he was selected by the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft, starting a great career.
What if Uggla had been promoted to Double-A to begin '04? Well, let me present these 2 scenarios: Uggla struggles to begin '04 at Double-A, but he adjusts and ends up hitting .280 with 15 homers. He is promoted to the big league roster in September. He is the D-backs' starting 2nd baseman in '05 (moving Craig Counsell to SS and forcing Royce Clayton on the bench), and the D-backs don't trade for Orlando Hudson. Uggla becomes the team's star 2nd baseman, winning the NL Rookie of the Year in '05, beating out Ryan Howard, and they lock him up long term in either '07, '08, or '09. Uggla would have gotten an extra season in the majors and been more likely to get a nice long-term deal. Or, let's say Uggla struggles mightily both offensively and defensively in September of '04 and the D-backs elect to keep him off the 40-man roster. The Marlins draft him in the Rule 5 draft, and Uggla still wins the NL Rookie of the Year in '05, starting a great major league career.
Bottom line, Uggla should have been a starter in the majors one year earlier and it's unfortunate for him that it didn't happen because he isn't getting as much money as he would have if he was one year younger.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Maybin to Padres
The Florida Marlins have traded CF Florida Maybin to the Padres in exchange for relievers Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica. This comes right on the heels of their trade with the Red Sox in which they traded LHP Andrew Miller, who, like Maybin, was also acquired in the Miguel Cabrera trade, and received another reliever, lefty Dustin Richardson. Full post on that trade here: Marlins-Red Sox trade (see sidebar).
Maybin, the 10th overall pick by the Tigers in '05, has yet to show his enormous potential at the major league level. Maybin is a five-tool prospect, but none of those tools have shown up consistently in the majors. In '10 at age 23, he hit just .234 with 7 doubles, 8 homers, 28 RBI, 9 SB, and a .302 OBP in 82 games. He posted a below-average .982 Fld% in centerfield, although he did show great range and post 4 outfield assists. He hit .250 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 13 RBI, just 1 SB, and a .318 OBP in 54 games in '09. That season, he posted a .992 Fld% in CF, but just 1 outfield assist. The thing about Maybin is that if you look at his minor league stats, you would think that he would be a star. In 114 Double-A games over 2 seasons, Maybin hit .283 with 16 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 8 triples, 21 SB, 82 runs, and a .384 OBP. Any team would like a player like that in the majors. At Triple-A in 115 games over 2 seasons, Maybin hit .325 with 24 doubles, 7 homers, 62 RBI, 10 triples, 13 SB, 65 runs, and a .401 OBP. That also would be a great season! The Padres hope that Maybin will finally harness his potential and put up seasons like the minor league stats above in the majors.
Webb had a very good season in '10, going 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 44 K's in 54 relief appearances and 59 IP. He didn't strike out too many batters (just 6.7 per 9), but walked just 19. His one problem was hits allowed- he allowed 64 hits, well over a hit per inning. The Padres must think that he won't be able to post an ERA under 3.00 again while allowing so many hits.
Mujica posted a ridiculous 12.0 K/BB ratio in '10 (72 K's versus 6 walks in 69.2 IP), but he went just 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 49 relief appearances. He allowed less than a hit per inning, but he allowed 14 home runs. Mujica is the kind of reliever that has such great control that you think he could be something special. But, he has to work on his command within the strike zone. If the Marlins could straighten him out, he could be a closer candidate considering Leo Nunez's struggles in '10 (3.46 ERA, 8 blown saves).
This trade makes sense on both sides. The Padres got the CF that they desperately needed while the Marlins got some needed bullpen help. The Marlins traded a player who has had his struggles while the Padres traded players that have done well in the majors, but have particular problems. I think that this will be an OK trade for the Marlins- Webb and Mujica are good relievers, but this trade could be a steal for the Padres if Maybin lives up to his potential.
Maybin, the 10th overall pick by the Tigers in '05, has yet to show his enormous potential at the major league level. Maybin is a five-tool prospect, but none of those tools have shown up consistently in the majors. In '10 at age 23, he hit just .234 with 7 doubles, 8 homers, 28 RBI, 9 SB, and a .302 OBP in 82 games. He posted a below-average .982 Fld% in centerfield, although he did show great range and post 4 outfield assists. He hit .250 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 13 RBI, just 1 SB, and a .318 OBP in 54 games in '09. That season, he posted a .992 Fld% in CF, but just 1 outfield assist. The thing about Maybin is that if you look at his minor league stats, you would think that he would be a star. In 114 Double-A games over 2 seasons, Maybin hit .283 with 16 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 8 triples, 21 SB, 82 runs, and a .384 OBP. Any team would like a player like that in the majors. At Triple-A in 115 games over 2 seasons, Maybin hit .325 with 24 doubles, 7 homers, 62 RBI, 10 triples, 13 SB, 65 runs, and a .401 OBP. That also would be a great season! The Padres hope that Maybin will finally harness his potential and put up seasons like the minor league stats above in the majors.
Webb had a very good season in '10, going 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 44 K's in 54 relief appearances and 59 IP. He didn't strike out too many batters (just 6.7 per 9), but walked just 19. His one problem was hits allowed- he allowed 64 hits, well over a hit per inning. The Padres must think that he won't be able to post an ERA under 3.00 again while allowing so many hits.
Mujica posted a ridiculous 12.0 K/BB ratio in '10 (72 K's versus 6 walks in 69.2 IP), but he went just 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 49 relief appearances. He allowed less than a hit per inning, but he allowed 14 home runs. Mujica is the kind of reliever that has such great control that you think he could be something special. But, he has to work on his command within the strike zone. If the Marlins could straighten him out, he could be a closer candidate considering Leo Nunez's struggles in '10 (3.46 ERA, 8 blown saves).
This trade makes sense on both sides. The Padres got the CF that they desperately needed while the Marlins got some needed bullpen help. The Marlins traded a player who has had his struggles while the Padres traded players that have done well in the majors, but have particular problems. I think that this will be an OK trade for the Marlins- Webb and Mujica are good relievers, but this trade could be a steal for the Padres if Maybin lives up to his potential.
Marlins-Red Sox trade
In a swap of left-handed pitchers from the 2006 draft the Florida Marlins have traded Andrew Miller, the 6th overall pick from that draft by the Detroit Tigers, to the Boston Red Sox for Dustin Richardson, a 5th round pick.
Miller, acquired by the Marlins in the Miguel Cabrera trade, has appeared in the majors for parts of the last 5 seasons, but has posted just a 5.84 ERA, including a 8.54 ERA in 7 starts and 2 relief appearances for the Marlins in '10. Miller's main downfall has been hits allowed- he has allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings in the majors including 14.1 hits per 9 in '10. Miller, who once had so much promise, even posted a 5.35 ERA and 9.4 hits allowed per 9 in the minors in '10. He is just 25, but he's just gone straight down.
Richardson, a reliever, had a good season in '10. going 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in 32 relief appearances in the minors in '10, striking out 56 in 44 IP, and going 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA in 26 relief appearances for the Red Sox, striking out 12 in 13 IP. He's a decent reliever, and at 26 going on 27, he could have a bright future as a lefty specialist.
The Marlins must feel that Miller can't be fixed. His college stats (27-9 with a 2.76 ERA at UNC), showed his tremendous potential, but he's just been a disaster in the majors. They got what they thought that was the best possible value that they could get for him. The Red Sox must think that they can fix Miller. They basically just traded away a pitcher that will likely go straight to the Marlins' bullpen for a project. Can Miller be fixed? As a Yankee fan, I sure hope not.
Miller, acquired by the Marlins in the Miguel Cabrera trade, has appeared in the majors for parts of the last 5 seasons, but has posted just a 5.84 ERA, including a 8.54 ERA in 7 starts and 2 relief appearances for the Marlins in '10. Miller's main downfall has been hits allowed- he has allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings in the majors including 14.1 hits per 9 in '10. Miller, who once had so much promise, even posted a 5.35 ERA and 9.4 hits allowed per 9 in the minors in '10. He is just 25, but he's just gone straight down.
Richardson, a reliever, had a good season in '10. going 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in 32 relief appearances in the minors in '10, striking out 56 in 44 IP, and going 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA in 26 relief appearances for the Red Sox, striking out 12 in 13 IP. He's a decent reliever, and at 26 going on 27, he could have a bright future as a lefty specialist.
The Marlins must feel that Miller can't be fixed. His college stats (27-9 with a 2.76 ERA at UNC), showed his tremendous potential, but he's just been a disaster in the majors. They got what they thought that was the best possible value that they could get for him. The Red Sox must think that they can fix Miller. They basically just traded away a pitcher that will likely go straight to the Marlins' bullpen for a project. Can Miller be fixed? As a Yankee fan, I sure hope not.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Will Jesus Montero be a servicable major league catcher?
Everyone loves 2011 rookie Jesus Montero's bat, but not everyone is sure about his defense. Montero will likely be a Yankee for a long time, but will he be the starting catcher for the Yankees for that period of time as well? No matter what your opinion is off Jorge Posada and his defense, he was starting catcher for the Yankees for 13 seasons. That's certainly a long time. Will Montero even be the starting catcher for 5 years?
Let's talk about offensive-minded catchers. Posada and Jason Varitek have played their whole careers under that category. Everyone wants that Johnny Bench or Joe Mauer who does it all- both win Gold Gloves and win those homer titles or batting titles. But, are we happy with those Carlton Fisk's and Mike Piazza's who maybe will win one Gold Glove if they're lucky (Fisk was certainly lucky his rookie year), but will be a feared hitter who keeps winning Silver Sluggers. What's interesting is that the best catchers do both. Neither Fisk and Piazza won a batting title or a homer title. Do you know the only offensive categories that Piazza ever led the league in? Well at first glance at Piazza's page on baseball-reference.com, just OPS+ in '95 and '97 and double playsg grouded into in '99. Sure, upon further review Piazza led the NL in offensive WAR in 1997 and AB per homer in '95, but wow. When we think of Mike Piazza, we think of one of the greatest catchers to play the game (if not the incident with Roger Clemens). How could he lead the league in so few offensive categories? Without even going into more complicated stats, Mauer has led the AL in batting 3 times, OBP once, OPS once, OPS+ once, and even sac flies once. And he has a lot of his career still ahead of him! The fans like offensive catchers. You get mad when they mess up defensively, but you love their homers and other big hits. But, you'd much rather have a two-way catcher. They play well defensively AND get those big hits. Montero is obviously an offensive catcher. Do the Yankees have a two-way catcher coming up? I want to say Austin Romine, but he apparently can't catch the ball. Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy might be good defensive catchers eventually, but they're quite a while away. The Yankees, at least for the next few seasons, will be stuck with an offensive catcher again.
But, the Yankees have had a history of offensive catchers. From Bill Dickey to Yogi Berra to Elston Howard the Yankees have had a ton of offensive catchers in their history. Why not have another one? How cbad an Montero be? Let's compare Montero's minor league stats to Posada's. If Montero's stats are as good or better, maybe he could be a fringe-average big league catcher like Posada has been. Posada posted a .977 Fld% in the minors, a 6.9 range factor per game ratio, 83 passed balls, and a 29% CS% in 6 minor league seasons. Montero has posted a .994 Fld% in the minors with a range factor per game ratio of 7.75, 41 passed balls, and a 23 CS% in 4 minor league seasons. Posada has done much better in the majors, posting a .992 Fld%, a 6.80 range factor per game ratio, 142 passed balls, and a 28% CS% in 16 seasons. Could Montero make that type of jump? The Yankees believe that Montero will be a serviceable catcher. He better be.
Let's talk about offensive-minded catchers. Posada and Jason Varitek have played their whole careers under that category. Everyone wants that Johnny Bench or Joe Mauer who does it all- both win Gold Gloves and win those homer titles or batting titles. But, are we happy with those Carlton Fisk's and Mike Piazza's who maybe will win one Gold Glove if they're lucky (Fisk was certainly lucky his rookie year), but will be a feared hitter who keeps winning Silver Sluggers. What's interesting is that the best catchers do both. Neither Fisk and Piazza won a batting title or a homer title. Do you know the only offensive categories that Piazza ever led the league in? Well at first glance at Piazza's page on baseball-reference.com, just OPS+ in '95 and '97 and double playsg grouded into in '99. Sure, upon further review Piazza led the NL in offensive WAR in 1997 and AB per homer in '95, but wow. When we think of Mike Piazza, we think of one of the greatest catchers to play the game (if not the incident with Roger Clemens). How could he lead the league in so few offensive categories? Without even going into more complicated stats, Mauer has led the AL in batting 3 times, OBP once, OPS once, OPS+ once, and even sac flies once. And he has a lot of his career still ahead of him! The fans like offensive catchers. You get mad when they mess up defensively, but you love their homers and other big hits. But, you'd much rather have a two-way catcher. They play well defensively AND get those big hits. Montero is obviously an offensive catcher. Do the Yankees have a two-way catcher coming up? I want to say Austin Romine, but he apparently can't catch the ball. Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy might be good defensive catchers eventually, but they're quite a while away. The Yankees, at least for the next few seasons, will be stuck with an offensive catcher again.
But, the Yankees have had a history of offensive catchers. From Bill Dickey to Yogi Berra to Elston Howard the Yankees have had a ton of offensive catchers in their history. Why not have another one? How cbad an Montero be? Let's compare Montero's minor league stats to Posada's. If Montero's stats are as good or better, maybe he could be a fringe-average big league catcher like Posada has been. Posada posted a .977 Fld% in the minors, a 6.9 range factor per game ratio, 83 passed balls, and a 29% CS% in 6 minor league seasons. Montero has posted a .994 Fld% in the minors with a range factor per game ratio of 7.75, 41 passed balls, and a 23 CS% in 4 minor league seasons. Posada has done much better in the majors, posting a .992 Fld%, a 6.80 range factor per game ratio, 142 passed balls, and a 28% CS% in 16 seasons. Could Montero make that type of jump? The Yankees believe that Montero will be a serviceable catcher. He better be.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
DeJesus to the A's
The Oakland Athletics have acquired OF David DeJesus from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for RHP Vin Mazzaro and LHP Justin Marks.
DeJesus, who will turn 31 on December 20th, had a nice but injury shortened season for the Royals in 2010, hitting .318 with 23 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, and a .384 OBP in 91 games. He injured his thumb during a 10-4 loss to the Yankees on June 22nd and had to undergo surgery. DeJesus had his best season in '08, when he hit .307 with 25 doubles, 12 homers, 73 RBI, 11 steals, and a .366 OBP in 135 games. He hit .281 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 71 RBI, 9 triples, and a .347 OBP in 144 games. Defensively, DeJesus has not made an error since '08. His 15.3 Ultimate Zone Rating was second in the majors in '09 to Carl Crawford, but was negative 0.1 in '10. He is not a great player, but he can be a solid contributor on a good team.
Mazzaro has been very inconsistent both at the major league and minor league levels. Mazzaro, a 3rd round pick, went 9-9 at Low-A his first pro season in '06, but posted a 5.05 ERA. He then went 9-12 with a 5.33 ERA at High-A in '07. But then, Mazzaro had an incredible season in '08, 15-6 with a 2.74 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. 2-2 with a 2.38 ERA in 9 starts and a relief appearance in '09 at Triple-A, Mazzaro was promoted to the majors where he went 4-9 with a 5.32 ERA in 17 starts. In '10, Mazzaro started out at Triple-A again, where he went 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 6 starts and a relief appearance, before being recalled to the majors. Mazzaro went 6-8 for the A's in '10, with a 4.27 ERA in 18 starts and 6 relief appearances. He was 6-3 with a 3.45 ERA on June 24th, but went just 0-6 with a 5.37 ERA the rest of the season. Keep in mind that Mazzaro isn't your average 24 year old fireballer. Mazzaro has posted just a 6.8 K/9 in the minors and a 5.8 K/9 in the majors. That wouldn't be that bad, but he doesn't have great control either. He has a 3.7 career BB/9, and his career K/BB ratio is just 1.55. If the Royals can somehow fix Mazzaro's control, he could be a good back of the rotation starter.
Marks is a lefty strikeout machine, but at least to this point in his career, he has not been effective. A 2009 3rd round pick, Marks had the worst pro debut I've ever seen that same season, pitching in 1 game at Rookie ball, a start, and giving up 6 runs in 0.0 IP for an infinity ERA. Yeah, infinity. Well, from there Marks could only be better. Not that he was that good in '10- he went 6-13 with a 4.87 ERA in 24 starts and a relief appearance between Low-A and High-A. The only reasons Marks has any value is because he struck out 136 batters in 129.1 IP in '10, good for a 9.5 K/9, and he posted a 2.78 K/BB ratio. If the Royals can somehow fix him, he could be a great pitcher. How many lefty starters strike out over a batter per inning?
The Royals are in a rebuilding mode, and had no need for DeJesus. They decided to trade him for 2 pitchers that need help, but certainly have potentially. The Royals are taking the gamble that Mazzaro and Marks will pan out. But, they wouldn't have done this trade if they didn't think they could fix them.
DeJesus, who will turn 31 on December 20th, had a nice but injury shortened season for the Royals in 2010, hitting .318 with 23 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, and a .384 OBP in 91 games. He injured his thumb during a 10-4 loss to the Yankees on June 22nd and had to undergo surgery. DeJesus had his best season in '08, when he hit .307 with 25 doubles, 12 homers, 73 RBI, 11 steals, and a .366 OBP in 135 games. He hit .281 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 71 RBI, 9 triples, and a .347 OBP in 144 games. Defensively, DeJesus has not made an error since '08. His 15.3 Ultimate Zone Rating was second in the majors in '09 to Carl Crawford, but was negative 0.1 in '10. He is not a great player, but he can be a solid contributor on a good team.
Mazzaro has been very inconsistent both at the major league and minor league levels. Mazzaro, a 3rd round pick, went 9-9 at Low-A his first pro season in '06, but posted a 5.05 ERA. He then went 9-12 with a 5.33 ERA at High-A in '07. But then, Mazzaro had an incredible season in '08, 15-6 with a 2.74 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. 2-2 with a 2.38 ERA in 9 starts and a relief appearance in '09 at Triple-A, Mazzaro was promoted to the majors where he went 4-9 with a 5.32 ERA in 17 starts. In '10, Mazzaro started out at Triple-A again, where he went 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 6 starts and a relief appearance, before being recalled to the majors. Mazzaro went 6-8 for the A's in '10, with a 4.27 ERA in 18 starts and 6 relief appearances. He was 6-3 with a 3.45 ERA on June 24th, but went just 0-6 with a 5.37 ERA the rest of the season. Keep in mind that Mazzaro isn't your average 24 year old fireballer. Mazzaro has posted just a 6.8 K/9 in the minors and a 5.8 K/9 in the majors. That wouldn't be that bad, but he doesn't have great control either. He has a 3.7 career BB/9, and his career K/BB ratio is just 1.55. If the Royals can somehow fix Mazzaro's control, he could be a good back of the rotation starter.
Marks is a lefty strikeout machine, but at least to this point in his career, he has not been effective. A 2009 3rd round pick, Marks had the worst pro debut I've ever seen that same season, pitching in 1 game at Rookie ball, a start, and giving up 6 runs in 0.0 IP for an infinity ERA. Yeah, infinity. Well, from there Marks could only be better. Not that he was that good in '10- he went 6-13 with a 4.87 ERA in 24 starts and a relief appearance between Low-A and High-A. The only reasons Marks has any value is because he struck out 136 batters in 129.1 IP in '10, good for a 9.5 K/9, and he posted a 2.78 K/BB ratio. If the Royals can somehow fix him, he could be a great pitcher. How many lefty starters strike out over a batter per inning?
The Royals are in a rebuilding mode, and had no need for DeJesus. They decided to trade him for 2 pitchers that need help, but certainly have potentially. The Royals are taking the gamble that Mazzaro and Marks will pan out. But, they wouldn't have done this trade if they didn't think they could fix them.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Will Jeter rebound in 2011?
Everyone knows that Jeter had a off-year in 2010. He hit just .270, his worst BA since 1995 (.250 in 15 games). Will he ever be a .300 hitter again?
First off, let me just clarify that Jeter's 2010 season wasn't THAT bad. His 111 runs were his most since 118 in 2006. His 30 doubles were his most since '07. But, that being said, his .340 OBP was also his worst since '95, his 515 outs made were the most of his career, his 107 K's were his most since '05, he posted his lowest slugging percentage of his career (.370), and he grounded into the 2nd-most double plays of any season of his career, 22 (only behind 24 in '08). In addition, Jeter went his most at-bats per homer, 66.3, since '95 (he had no homers in '95), and his most at-bats per RBI, 9.9, in any season of his career. So, now that we have a perspective of Jeter's 2010 season compared to the rest of his career, we can ask this question: did Jeter have a bad season because of bad luck or because he's beginning to decline?
Did Jeter have bad luck in 2010? Well, his .307 BAbip (BA on balls in play) was the lowest of any season in his career. And, not by a small margin. His previous career low was .324 in '95, and keep in mind that his BAbip's the last 4 years were .368 in '09, .333 in '08, .367 in '07, and a ridiculous .391 BAbip in '06. Those four BAbip's correlate perfectly to Jeter's BA in those years. He hit .343 in '06 because of the ridiculous .391 BAbip, .322 in '07 because of the great .367 BAbip, just .300 in '08 because his BAbip went down .34 to .333, and then .334 in '09 because his BAbip went back up to .368. Keep in mind that BAbip is almost all luck. As they say, "you can only hit the ball, you can't aim it." So, by that reasoning, Jeter was very unlucky in '10.
But, an important factor in BAbip is line drive percentage- although some line drives are caught, most line drives are base hits. Jeter's LD% in 2010 was just 16%, the lowest of his career. That's very low compared to his 22% LD% for his career. Although LD% isn't as clearly connected to BA as BAbip, going back to our '06 to '09 example for Jeter's career, Jeter's LD% was 21% in '06 when he hit .343, 22% in '07 when he hit .322, just 19% when he hit just .300, and 21% when he hit .334 in '09. Jeter just isn't hitting line drives as often anymore. His 5.8% of hits for extra bases in '10 was tied for the lowest percentage of his career, with '08. According to that, Jeter appears to definitely be in decline. He just can't hit as many line drives anymore.
Is Jeter in decline? Well, from June until September of 2010, Jeter hit .242. But, he rebounded to hit .287 in September (and the regular season games in October). Will Jeter ever hit .300 again? Maybe not. But, maybe that .287 BA in September could be what Jeter has left in the tank. Jeter certainly had bad luck in '10, most notably from June until September when he had just a .275 BAbip. But, even when his BAbip shot up to .351 in September, he still hit just .287. Jeter's decline is just beginning, but still he's in a decline. I don't think he'll ever hit .300 again, but I think that his luck will turn around in 2011 and he'll hit around .290.
First off, let me just clarify that Jeter's 2010 season wasn't THAT bad. His 111 runs were his most since 118 in 2006. His 30 doubles were his most since '07. But, that being said, his .340 OBP was also his worst since '95, his 515 outs made were the most of his career, his 107 K's were his most since '05, he posted his lowest slugging percentage of his career (.370), and he grounded into the 2nd-most double plays of any season of his career, 22 (only behind 24 in '08). In addition, Jeter went his most at-bats per homer, 66.3, since '95 (he had no homers in '95), and his most at-bats per RBI, 9.9, in any season of his career. So, now that we have a perspective of Jeter's 2010 season compared to the rest of his career, we can ask this question: did Jeter have a bad season because of bad luck or because he's beginning to decline?
Did Jeter have bad luck in 2010? Well, his .307 BAbip (BA on balls in play) was the lowest of any season in his career. And, not by a small margin. His previous career low was .324 in '95, and keep in mind that his BAbip's the last 4 years were .368 in '09, .333 in '08, .367 in '07, and a ridiculous .391 BAbip in '06. Those four BAbip's correlate perfectly to Jeter's BA in those years. He hit .343 in '06 because of the ridiculous .391 BAbip, .322 in '07 because of the great .367 BAbip, just .300 in '08 because his BAbip went down .34 to .333, and then .334 in '09 because his BAbip went back up to .368. Keep in mind that BAbip is almost all luck. As they say, "you can only hit the ball, you can't aim it." So, by that reasoning, Jeter was very unlucky in '10.
But, an important factor in BAbip is line drive percentage- although some line drives are caught, most line drives are base hits. Jeter's LD% in 2010 was just 16%, the lowest of his career. That's very low compared to his 22% LD% for his career. Although LD% isn't as clearly connected to BA as BAbip, going back to our '06 to '09 example for Jeter's career, Jeter's LD% was 21% in '06 when he hit .343, 22% in '07 when he hit .322, just 19% when he hit just .300, and 21% when he hit .334 in '09. Jeter just isn't hitting line drives as often anymore. His 5.8% of hits for extra bases in '10 was tied for the lowest percentage of his career, with '08. According to that, Jeter appears to definitely be in decline. He just can't hit as many line drives anymore.
Is Jeter in decline? Well, from June until September of 2010, Jeter hit .242. But, he rebounded to hit .287 in September (and the regular season games in October). Will Jeter ever hit .300 again? Maybe not. But, maybe that .287 BA in September could be what Jeter has left in the tank. Jeter certainly had bad luck in '10, most notably from June until September when he had just a .275 BAbip. But, even when his BAbip shot up to .351 in September, he still hit just .287. Jeter's decline is just beginning, but still he's in a decline. I don't think he'll ever hit .300 again, but I think that his luck will turn around in 2011 and he'll hit around .290.
Monday, November 8, 2010
Iwakuma to the A's
The Oakland Athletics have won the bidding for Japanese RHP Hisashi Iwakuma. Iwakuma isn't your average Japanese star pitcher coming from Japan. He went 13-6 with a 3.25 ERA, but just 121 K's in 24 starts and 169 IP. He gave up 169 hits, more than a hit per inning, although he did walk just 43. Contrast him to other big name Japanese starters Daisuke Matsuzaka, who struck out 200 in 186.1 IP his last year in Japan, and Hideo Nomo, who struck out 126 in 114 IP his last year in Japan and 276 in 243.1 IP in his last full year in Japan. Iwakuma's strikeout rate in his last year in Japan is not even comparable to Kei Igawa's stats in his last year in Japan. Igawa struck out 194 in 209 IP, an 8.4 K/9, compared to Iwakuma's 6.4 K/9. To go through a few other active Japanese pitchers, Hideki Okajima had a 10.5 K/9, Kenshin Kawakami had an 8.6 K/9, Takashi Saito had a 7.9 K/9, Hisanori Takahashi also had a 7.9 K/9, while Koji Uehara had a 7.3 K/9, and Hiroki Kuroda, 6.2 K/9. Let's look at those last 4 guys. Kawakami has been up and down as a starter in the big leagues, while Saito, Takahashi, and Uehara have enjoyed success in the big leagues as relievers, and Kuroda has been a successful starter. Among that group, the A's obviously hope that Iwakuma will be most like Kuroda.
The comparison between Iwakuma and Kuroda goes further. Iwakuma posted a 2.3 BB/9 in Japan in '10, similar to Hiroki Kuroda's 2.1 BB/9 in his last year in Japan. Kuroda's career BB/9 in the majors is also 2.1. Could Iwakuma also maintain his 2.3 BB/9? Interestingly, Kuroda's strikeout rate has gone up from 6.2 per 9 to 6.6 per 9 in America. Could the same thing also happen to Iwakuma?
In comparing Iwakuma to Kuroda, I'm realizing this: Iwakuma isn't going to be a big league superstar unless he really becomes a much better pitcher against big league hitters. He will be a nice 3rd starter, posting an ERA in the low to mid 3.00's (Kuroda's ERA in the big leagues has ranged from 3.39 to 3.76). He won't blow away hitters, but he'll get outs. Iwakuma's hype isn't anywhere near what Dice-K's hype was when he came to the US. But, considering Matsuzaka's struggles, Iwakuma certainly has as good of a chance as he does to be "the next great Japanese pitcher".
The comparison between Iwakuma and Kuroda goes further. Iwakuma posted a 2.3 BB/9 in Japan in '10, similar to Hiroki Kuroda's 2.1 BB/9 in his last year in Japan. Kuroda's career BB/9 in the majors is also 2.1. Could Iwakuma also maintain his 2.3 BB/9? Interestingly, Kuroda's strikeout rate has gone up from 6.2 per 9 to 6.6 per 9 in America. Could the same thing also happen to Iwakuma?
In comparing Iwakuma to Kuroda, I'm realizing this: Iwakuma isn't going to be a big league superstar unless he really becomes a much better pitcher against big league hitters. He will be a nice 3rd starter, posting an ERA in the low to mid 3.00's (Kuroda's ERA in the big leagues has ranged from 3.39 to 3.76). He won't blow away hitters, but he'll get outs. Iwakuma's hype isn't anywhere near what Dice-K's hype was when he came to the US. But, considering Matsuzaka's struggles, Iwakuma certainly has as good of a chance as he does to be "the next great Japanese pitcher".
Jay Gibbons- a story of perseverance
Once you get there, you will do anything to get back.
As a Yankee fan, I remember Jay Gibbons as one of the outfielders on the Orioles team that kept finishing in 4th place in the AL East, only in front of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He was a good player, hitting .247 with 28 homers and 68 RBI in his 2nd year in '02, and hitting .277 with 23 homers and 100 RBI in '03. After hitting just .246 with 10 homers and 47 RBI because of injuries in '04, Gibbons rebounded to hit .277 with 26 homers and 79 RBI in '05. Gibbons played in just 90 games in '06 because of injuries, hitting .277 with 13 homers and 46 RBI. But, in September, his life changed. Former relief pitcher Jason Grimsley told federal agents that Gibbons, among others, used steroids. Gibbons denied the reports.
After hitting .230 with 6 homers and 6 homers and 28 RBI in 84 games, Gibbons was named in the Mitchell Report. Sports Illustrated reported that Gibbons used HGH and steroids from '03 to '05, with '03 and '05 being 2 of his best 3 seasons. He was released by Orioles in Spring Training of '08.
He was so desperate that he wrote this letter to all 30 MLB teams:
Writing this letter is both painful and humiliating. It has been almost six weeks since my release from the Orioles and I am still unable to land any opportunity at a second chance to play the game that I love.
I am young, healthy and determined. I have acknowledged and apologized for the mistake that I made and writing this letter should be proof enough that I have indeed suffered for my mistake.
I have faith and hope that some team will give me the chance to prove that I can not only be a productive player but also be a stellar member of their organization. My faith in a second chance has inspired me to work harder than I have at any time in my life. My faith has gotten me through this most difficult period in my life.
All I need is a chance -- any chance -- anywhere. I am more than willing to begin the process of proving that I can and will be a productive major league player by playing in the minor leagues.
As you know, I have played seven seasons in the big leagues and have hit 20-plus homeruns in three seasons and have hit .277 in three seasons (2003, 2005 and 2006). At 31 years old, I have NO DOUBT that my best baseball is ahead of me.
I know that my agents at ACES have tried to land me an opportunity in the minor leagues but have been met with negative responses by each and every Organization. I am not blind to the fact that I have made a mistake and that mistake has raised doubt about my character and ability. It is important that you know that my indiscretions, while regretful, were made in an effort to heal a nagging wrist injury. I would encourage you to speak with anyone in this game, including players, coaches, front office etc. who know me. I am confident that everyone you speak with will vouch for my character.
I respectfully and humbly request that you grant me the chance to play for your organization. I am so willing to prove myself as a player, and a person, that I will donate ALL of my minor league earnings to your Club's charity. In the event that I earn the right to play at the major league level, I will gladly donate a significant sum to that same charity.
Once again, all I need is a chance and I will prove that I can be an extremely productive player and a great addition to your organization.
Please feel free to contact me directly [phone number omitted]. Thank you for your time and consideration.
Sincerely,
Jay Gibbons
Even though he used steroids, reading that letter almost made me cry. No team signed Gibbons to even to a minor league deal and he instead played with the independent Long Island Ducks. He hit .280 with 5 homers and 19 RBI in 27 games for the Ducks before finally being signed to a minor league deal by the Brewers. He hit very well for Triple-A Nashville in the Brewers organization hitting .312 with 5 homers and 15 RBI in 29 games. He was a free agent after the year, and signed to a minor league contract by the Marlins in January of '09. But, the Marlins released him in mid-March, and he was signed by the independent Newark Bears. He couldn't even hit well for the Bears, hitting just .233 with 4 homers and 19 RBI in 40 games. At 32, he appeared to be washed up.
Still, for some reason he was signed to a minor league contract by the Dodgers in January '10. The move certainly paid off. Gibbons hit a ridiculous .347 for Triple-A Albuquerque, with 19 homers and 83 RBI. He was promoted to the majors on August 8th, he hit .280 with 5 homers and 17 RBI. The Dodgers re-signed him to a 1-year contract worth $650,000 with incentives.
Even in a country of second chances, no one, maybe not even Gibbons himself, thought he would get back. He has become an inspiration. An inspiration to everyone who has made a mistake- all of us. No one is perfect. When you make a mistake, you have to persevere through it and get back to who you were before. You can fall all the way down, but if you're a good person and you're sincere, like Gibbons, you can realistically get all back up.
As a Yankee fan, I remember Jay Gibbons as one of the outfielders on the Orioles team that kept finishing in 4th place in the AL East, only in front of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He was a good player, hitting .247 with 28 homers and 68 RBI in his 2nd year in '02, and hitting .277 with 23 homers and 100 RBI in '03. After hitting just .246 with 10 homers and 47 RBI because of injuries in '04, Gibbons rebounded to hit .277 with 26 homers and 79 RBI in '05. Gibbons played in just 90 games in '06 because of injuries, hitting .277 with 13 homers and 46 RBI. But, in September, his life changed. Former relief pitcher Jason Grimsley told federal agents that Gibbons, among others, used steroids. Gibbons denied the reports.
After hitting .230 with 6 homers and 6 homers and 28 RBI in 84 games, Gibbons was named in the Mitchell Report. Sports Illustrated reported that Gibbons used HGH and steroids from '03 to '05, with '03 and '05 being 2 of his best 3 seasons. He was released by Orioles in Spring Training of '08.
He was so desperate that he wrote this letter to all 30 MLB teams:
Writing this letter is both painful and humiliating. It has been almost six weeks since my release from the Orioles and I am still unable to land any opportunity at a second chance to play the game that I love.
I am young, healthy and determined. I have acknowledged and apologized for the mistake that I made and writing this letter should be proof enough that I have indeed suffered for my mistake.
I have faith and hope that some team will give me the chance to prove that I can not only be a productive player but also be a stellar member of their organization. My faith in a second chance has inspired me to work harder than I have at any time in my life. My faith has gotten me through this most difficult period in my life.
All I need is a chance -- any chance -- anywhere. I am more than willing to begin the process of proving that I can and will be a productive major league player by playing in the minor leagues.
As you know, I have played seven seasons in the big leagues and have hit 20-plus homeruns in three seasons and have hit .277 in three seasons (2003, 2005 and 2006). At 31 years old, I have NO DOUBT that my best baseball is ahead of me.
I know that my agents at ACES have tried to land me an opportunity in the minor leagues but have been met with negative responses by each and every Organization. I am not blind to the fact that I have made a mistake and that mistake has raised doubt about my character and ability. It is important that you know that my indiscretions, while regretful, were made in an effort to heal a nagging wrist injury. I would encourage you to speak with anyone in this game, including players, coaches, front office etc. who know me. I am confident that everyone you speak with will vouch for my character.
I respectfully and humbly request that you grant me the chance to play for your organization. I am so willing to prove myself as a player, and a person, that I will donate ALL of my minor league earnings to your Club's charity. In the event that I earn the right to play at the major league level, I will gladly donate a significant sum to that same charity.
Once again, all I need is a chance and I will prove that I can be an extremely productive player and a great addition to your organization.
Please feel free to contact me directly [phone number omitted]. Thank you for your time and consideration.
Sincerely,
Jay Gibbons
Even though he used steroids, reading that letter almost made me cry. No team signed Gibbons to even to a minor league deal and he instead played with the independent Long Island Ducks. He hit .280 with 5 homers and 19 RBI in 27 games for the Ducks before finally being signed to a minor league deal by the Brewers. He hit very well for Triple-A Nashville in the Brewers organization hitting .312 with 5 homers and 15 RBI in 29 games. He was a free agent after the year, and signed to a minor league contract by the Marlins in January of '09. But, the Marlins released him in mid-March, and he was signed by the independent Newark Bears. He couldn't even hit well for the Bears, hitting just .233 with 4 homers and 19 RBI in 40 games. At 32, he appeared to be washed up.
Still, for some reason he was signed to a minor league contract by the Dodgers in January '10. The move certainly paid off. Gibbons hit a ridiculous .347 for Triple-A Albuquerque, with 19 homers and 83 RBI. He was promoted to the majors on August 8th, he hit .280 with 5 homers and 17 RBI. The Dodgers re-signed him to a 1-year contract worth $650,000 with incentives.
Even in a country of second chances, no one, maybe not even Gibbons himself, thought he would get back. He has become an inspiration. An inspiration to everyone who has made a mistake- all of us. No one is perfect. When you make a mistake, you have to persevere through it and get back to who you were before. You can fall all the way down, but if you're a good person and you're sincere, like Gibbons, you can realistically get all back up.
Friday, November 5, 2010
Bizarre Blue Jays-Rockies trade
The Rockies traded catcher Miguel Olivo to the Blue Jays for a player to be named. It doesn't sound like anything special, right? Well, it certainly was.
The Blue Jays declined Olivo's 2011 option, making him a free agent. (What? They just traded a player to be named for nothing!) Why did they do that? Well, Miguel Olivo is a Type-B free agent, so the Blue Jays traded a player to be named to potentially get a supplemental draft pick in June. Before that happens, they have to offer Olivo salary arbitration, and he has to decline it and sign with another team. But, what if he accepts the arbitration? Well, then Olivo would be an expensive backup to rookie catcher J.P. Arencibia, and the Blue Jays would probably try to trade him again. This trade is a calculated gamble by the Jays. If Olivo declines arbitration, Toronto will get an a supplemental draft pick in exchange for some random prospect. That's potentially a great trade. But, if Olivo accepts arbitration, that's potentially a disaster for them. The one thing in Toronto's favor is that Olivo will probably want to be a starter somewhere rather than be a backup in Toronto. I think it was a good gamble by the Jays. In all likelihood, the Jays will get a supplemental pick in exchange for a low-rated prospect.
The Blue Jays declined Olivo's 2011 option, making him a free agent. (What? They just traded a player to be named for nothing!) Why did they do that? Well, Miguel Olivo is a Type-B free agent, so the Blue Jays traded a player to be named to potentially get a supplemental draft pick in June. Before that happens, they have to offer Olivo salary arbitration, and he has to decline it and sign with another team. But, what if he accepts the arbitration? Well, then Olivo would be an expensive backup to rookie catcher J.P. Arencibia, and the Blue Jays would probably try to trade him again. This trade is a calculated gamble by the Jays. If Olivo declines arbitration, Toronto will get an a supplemental draft pick in exchange for some random prospect. That's potentially a great trade. But, if Olivo accepts arbitration, that's potentially a disaster for them. The one thing in Toronto's favor is that Olivo will probably want to be a starter somewhere rather than be a backup in Toronto. I think it was a good gamble by the Jays. In all likelihood, the Jays will get a supplemental pick in exchange for a low-rated prospect.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Dustin Ackley dominates the AFL
2009 number 2 overall pick 2nd baseman Dustin Ackley has finally lived up to his potential. In his first minor league season, the Mariners prospect was hitting just .203 on May 27th at Double-A. It was such a big deal that I did a post on it! (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/655065-whats-going-on-with-mariners-top-prospect-dustin-ackley). But, Ackley rebounded to do OK at Double-A, hitting .263 with 21 doubles, 2 homers, 28 RBI, 8 SB, and a .389 OBP in 82 games. He was then promoted to Triple-A, and did better, hitting .274 with 12 doubles, 5 homers, 23 RBI, 2 SB, and a .338 OBP in 52 games. After starting off badly at Double-A, he rebounded and did even better at Triple-A. Still, he didn't play like a #2 overall pick should. Well, Ackley has finally started playing like a #2 overall pick in the Arizona Fall League. He has hit .400 with 4 doubles, 3 homers, 11 RBI, and a .554 OBP in 12 games. That's ridiculous. He's tied for 4th in the AFL in BA, tied for 2nd in homers, tied for 10th in RBI (with among others Yankee prospect Brandon Laird), and leads the AFL in OBP. This is the Ackley everyone expected.
So, why did he struggle during the minor league season? Because he was a 1st baseman and outfielder in college. He had to adjust to 2nd base defensively and because of that adjustment, he struggled at the plate for a while. Once he made the adjustment, he got back to being the great hitter he was in college.
So, why did he struggle during the minor league season? Because he was a 1st baseman and outfielder in college. He had to adjust to 2nd base defensively and because of that adjustment, he struggled at the plate for a while. Once he made the adjustment, he got back to being the great hitter he was in college.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Matt Kemp to the Yankees?
The rumor is that the Dodgers will trade CF Matt Kemp over the offseason. Could the Yankees make a run at him?
Every rumor has to start with the Yankees. Kemp doesn't appear to be a fit, but the Yankees could consider trading Nick Swisher. Swisher has been a great personality in the clubhouse, and he does have power, but there's no way the Yankees wouldn't at least consider including him in a trade for a talent like Kemp. Kemp only had 3 less homers than Swisher's 29 in '10, and the same amount of RBI (89). Plus, Kemp has logged 168 games in RF, posting a .973 Fld%, but a league-average .982 Fld% in 70 combined games in '08 and '09. He could be OK in right defensively. The Yankees would then have a very fast outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Kemp. (Before anyone asks, a Gardner-Granderson-Crawford outfield would not work because they have a combined 0 games in RF. But, if Swisher is traded, Jayson Werth could definitely play RF, since it's been his primary position since '07.) So, what could the Dodgers get in return for Kemp. Well, pretty much anything they wanted besides Jesus Montero. My guess would be a package of something like Swisher, C Austin Romine, and OF Melky Mesa (a player who could eventually be a Kemp-like player if he pans out) for Kemp and OF Jamie Hoffmann (back to the Yankees after being returned after the Rule 5 draft). Let's analyze this theoretical trade.
Swisher had an all-star season in '10, hitting .288 with 33 doubles, 29 homers, 89 RBI, 91 runs, and a .359 OBP in 150 games. He posted a slightly-above average .986 Fld% in RF. He's certainly a good player. Do the Yankees want to trade him, even for Kemp?
Romine, the Yankees' 2nd best catching prospect besides Montero, had a decent season in '10, hittting .268 with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, 61 runs, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. He posted a .994 Fld% at catcher, and a 23% CS%. He allowed 6 passed balls. Although those sould like good defensive stats, I've heard that he has had trouble handling good fastballs. That is definitely a problem. If you're worried that Montero may never be a full-time catcher, Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy are coming. The Yankees really don't need Romine.
Mesa, the other Melky, has been an interesting prospect. After hitting a .221 in his first 3 minor league seasons at Rookie ball and SS-A ball, He burst on to the scene at age 22 at Low-A in '09, hitting just .225, but with 24 doubles, 20 homers, 74 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 18 SB, and a .308 OBP in 133 games. In '10, he did even better, hitting .260 with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 81 runs, 31 SB, and a reasonable .338 OBP in 121 games. He owns just a .975 career Fld% in CF, but he posted a .985 Fld% there in '10. He would have been a good prospect if it weren't for those 3 lost seasons. Still, at 23 (he will turn 24 in January), he has a little time to develop. If he could put up his '09 and '10 numbers in the majors in let's say 2013, he could be a Matt Kemp-like player. It seems like a pretty good deal for the Dodgers if they get a former All-Star in Swisher, and a likely All-Star in Romine in addition to a possible Matt Kemp-esque player who if he does get to that level will be an All-Star.
Hoffmann had a nice season at Triple-A hitting .310 with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 74 RBI, 91 runs, 17 SB, and a .369 OBP in 139 games. He is a tremendous defensive outfielder, as he posted a great .996 Fld% in CF with 5 outfield assists. You would think that the Dodgers would want to keep him, but he's 26, and didn't even earn a September call-up in '10. Seems like trade bait to me.
Kemp, a 26 year old righty hitter, appeared in all 162 games for the Dodgers, hitting .249 with 25 doubles, 28 homers, 89 RBI, 6 triples, 150 hits, 82 runs, 19 SB (15 CS), a .310 OBP, a below-average .985 Fld% in CF, and just 3 outfield assists. Kemp is what he is. He has power and speed, but not a tremendous amount of either. Still, any player who could potentially put up a 30-30 season is a good player. Kevin Long could maybe fix his swing, and the Yankees could have far and away the best outfield in the majors, possibly an outfield that could all 3 be All-Stars in the same season. Picture that. As a Yankee fan, do you want the Yankees to trade for Kemp now? Is it a longshot? Maybe, but there's a chance. A chance of the trade happening and a chance that something special will happen in the Yankee outfield.
Every rumor has to start with the Yankees. Kemp doesn't appear to be a fit, but the Yankees could consider trading Nick Swisher. Swisher has been a great personality in the clubhouse, and he does have power, but there's no way the Yankees wouldn't at least consider including him in a trade for a talent like Kemp. Kemp only had 3 less homers than Swisher's 29 in '10, and the same amount of RBI (89). Plus, Kemp has logged 168 games in RF, posting a .973 Fld%, but a league-average .982 Fld% in 70 combined games in '08 and '09. He could be OK in right defensively. The Yankees would then have a very fast outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Kemp. (Before anyone asks, a Gardner-Granderson-Crawford outfield would not work because they have a combined 0 games in RF. But, if Swisher is traded, Jayson Werth could definitely play RF, since it's been his primary position since '07.) So, what could the Dodgers get in return for Kemp. Well, pretty much anything they wanted besides Jesus Montero. My guess would be a package of something like Swisher, C Austin Romine, and OF Melky Mesa (a player who could eventually be a Kemp-like player if he pans out) for Kemp and OF Jamie Hoffmann (back to the Yankees after being returned after the Rule 5 draft). Let's analyze this theoretical trade.
Swisher had an all-star season in '10, hitting .288 with 33 doubles, 29 homers, 89 RBI, 91 runs, and a .359 OBP in 150 games. He posted a slightly-above average .986 Fld% in RF. He's certainly a good player. Do the Yankees want to trade him, even for Kemp?
Romine, the Yankees' 2nd best catching prospect besides Montero, had a decent season in '10, hittting .268 with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, 61 runs, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. He posted a .994 Fld% at catcher, and a 23% CS%. He allowed 6 passed balls. Although those sould like good defensive stats, I've heard that he has had trouble handling good fastballs. That is definitely a problem. If you're worried that Montero may never be a full-time catcher, Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy are coming. The Yankees really don't need Romine.
Mesa, the other Melky, has been an interesting prospect. After hitting a .221 in his first 3 minor league seasons at Rookie ball and SS-A ball, He burst on to the scene at age 22 at Low-A in '09, hitting just .225, but with 24 doubles, 20 homers, 74 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 18 SB, and a .308 OBP in 133 games. In '10, he did even better, hitting .260 with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 81 runs, 31 SB, and a reasonable .338 OBP in 121 games. He owns just a .975 career Fld% in CF, but he posted a .985 Fld% there in '10. He would have been a good prospect if it weren't for those 3 lost seasons. Still, at 23 (he will turn 24 in January), he has a little time to develop. If he could put up his '09 and '10 numbers in the majors in let's say 2013, he could be a Matt Kemp-like player. It seems like a pretty good deal for the Dodgers if they get a former All-Star in Swisher, and a likely All-Star in Romine in addition to a possible Matt Kemp-esque player who if he does get to that level will be an All-Star.
Hoffmann had a nice season at Triple-A hitting .310 with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 74 RBI, 91 runs, 17 SB, and a .369 OBP in 139 games. He is a tremendous defensive outfielder, as he posted a great .996 Fld% in CF with 5 outfield assists. You would think that the Dodgers would want to keep him, but he's 26, and didn't even earn a September call-up in '10. Seems like trade bait to me.
Kemp, a 26 year old righty hitter, appeared in all 162 games for the Dodgers, hitting .249 with 25 doubles, 28 homers, 89 RBI, 6 triples, 150 hits, 82 runs, 19 SB (15 CS), a .310 OBP, a below-average .985 Fld% in CF, and just 3 outfield assists. Kemp is what he is. He has power and speed, but not a tremendous amount of either. Still, any player who could potentially put up a 30-30 season is a good player. Kevin Long could maybe fix his swing, and the Yankees could have far and away the best outfield in the majors, possibly an outfield that could all 3 be All-Stars in the same season. Picture that. As a Yankee fan, do you want the Yankees to trade for Kemp now? Is it a longshot? Maybe, but there's a chance. A chance of the trade happening and a chance that something special will happen in the Yankee outfield.
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