The Rangers acquired Cliff Lee in exchange for Justin Smoak and 3 other prospects. The Mariners thought it was a good offer, even better than the Yankees' offer of Jesus Montero and 3 other prospects. They must have thought that Smoak will be a star. Were they wrong?
Smoak was the 11th overall pick in the loaded first round of the 2008 MLB draft. There obviously were busts (most notably #1 overall pick Tim Beckham), but the players that have panned out are Pedro Alvarez (#2 overall), Brian Matusz (#4), Buster Posey (#5), and Gordon Beckham (#8). Ike Davis (#18) was drafted after Smoak. I realize that it's not completely fair to compare Smoak to the players, but let's do it anyway.
It took Alvarez just 1.5 seasons to get to the majors. He hit .288 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 126 games between Low-A Lynchburg and Double-A Altoona in '09. After hitting .277 with 15 doubles, 13 homers, 53 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 66 games for Triple-A Indianapolis, Alvarez was called up to the majors. Alvarez had a pretty good year after being called up on June 16th, hitting just .256, but with 21 doubles, 16 homers, and 64 RBI. His OBP was .326. He does need work defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at 3rd base. He will be just 23 in '11, so he will have time to develop into a better player both offensively and defensively at the major league level. Alvarez is a nice young player who will be a cornerstone of the Pirates for years to come.
Brian Matusz made it to the majors in under 1 season. After a dominating minor league season in '09 between Low-A Frederick and Double-A, Matusz made it to the majors at age 22. Matusz went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 121 K's in 19 starts and 113 innings in the minors, and 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 38 K's in 8 starts and and 44.2 IP in the majors. Matusz improved in '10, going 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA and 143 K's in 32 starts and 175.2 IP. Matusz was just 4-12 with a 5.28 ERA on August 13th, but went undefeated the rest of the year, going 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 8 starts. The Orioles won all 8 of those games. Matusz really has a promising future. Pretty soon he will be the Orioles' ace.
Buster Posey dominated the minors for parts of 3 seasons before making it to the majors at age 22. Unlike Alvarez and Matusz, Posey signed soon enough to play in '08. He played in 10 games between Rookie ball and SS-A Salem Keizer, hitting .351 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, and a .467 OBP. It was a sign of things to come. Posey had another great season in '09, hitting .325 with 31 doubles, 18 homers, 80 RBI, 84 runs, and a .416 OBP in 115 games between High-A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. But, Posey had 14 passed balls at catcher, so he began '10 at Fresno. He hit very well once again, hitting .349 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 32 RBI, and a .442 OBP in 47 games while only allowing one passed ball. He was then promoted to the majors, and is a candidate to win NL Rookie of the Year. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He posted a .991 Fld% at catcher, throwing out 37% of attempted base stealers, and allowing just 1 passed ball. He is a very talented player who will be the catcher for the Giants for a long time.
Gordon Beckham took just 1 full season in the minors to make the majors at age 22. After signing early enough to play in '08, Beckham hit .310 with 2 doubles, 3 homers, and 8 RBI, and a .365 OBP in 14 games at Low-A Kannapolis. It was a stepping stone to a great season. He hit .326 with 23 doubles, 4 homers, 25 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 45 games between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte before being promoted to the majors. He did OK in the majors, hitting .270 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 63 RBI, and a .347 OBP in 103 games. But, he posted a below-average .952 Fld% at 3rd base. He was the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year and finished 5th in the real voting. He had a bit of a sophmore slump in '10, hitting .252 with 25 doubles, 9 homers, 49 RBI, and a .317 OBP in 131 games. Part of the problem was that he was moved to 2nd base, where he posted a below average .981 Fld%. But, he hit .320 from July 20th to the end of the year. Whatever his problem was, he fixed it. He should be a White Sox' infielder for a long time. Despite his sub-par year, I wouldn't be too surprised if the White Sox lock him up long term.
Davis needed 1.5 full seasons in the minors before making the majors at age 23. He signed the earliest among this group, and ended up playing 58 games for SS-A Brooklyn and was a disappointment. He hit just .256 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 17 RBI, and a .326 OBP. But, that was the last time that Davis was a disappointment. He hit .298 in '09 between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton with 31 doubles, 20 homers, 71 RBI, and a .381 OBP in 114 games. After just 10 games for Triple-A Buffalo in '10 in which he hit .364 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 4 RBI, and a .500 OBP, Davis was promoted to the majors. He had a great rookie season, hitting .264 with 33 doubles, 19 homers, 71 RBI, and a .341 OBP in 147 games. He was right at the league average with a .993 Fld% at 1st base. I'll make a bold statement and say that he's the next David Wright. He'll be a fixture at 1st base for the Mets.
Well, I've gone through everybody else. So, how good is Smoak?
In his first taste of pro ball in '08, Smoak hit .304 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 6 RBI in 14 games at Low-A Clinton. He didn't make any errors in 10 games at 1st base. It was definitely a nice showing, albeit in such a short period of time.
In '09, Smoak worked his way all the way up to Triple-A. After hitting .667 with 2 homers and 5 RBI at Rookie ball, Smoak was promoted to Double-A Frisco where he hit .328 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, and a .449 OBP in 50 games. It was a great showing, and he appeared to be on the fast track to the majors. He was so good at Frisco that he was brought up to Triple-A Oklahoma City, but there he struggled. In 54 games, Smoak hit just .244 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, and 23 RBI. But, Smoak did post a .363 OBP,which was great when considering his Low BA. But, he was just 23 years old, so he could adjust to Triple-A in '10.
Did Smoak make that adjustment? Well, after 15 games at Oklahoma City, Smoak hit .300 with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 5 RBI before being rushed to the majors. Smoak had his moments with the Rangers, but mostly he struggled. He hit just .209, but with 10 doubles, 8 homers, and 34 RBI. He posted a .318 OBP. Then of course, he was traded to the Mariners in the Lee trade. He remained with the Mariners from July 10th to July 29th and struggled mightily. He hit just .159 with 1 double, 2 homers, and 5 RBI in 16 games. To compound the problem, he posted just a .169 OBP, walking once and striking out 23 skill. After that terrible showing, Smoak was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma. He did just OK for Tacoma, hitting .271 with 7 doubles, 7 homers, and 25 RBI, although he did post a .377 OBP. But, somehow the work at Triple-A helped him, and he was a different player when he came back to the majors on September 18th. He hit .340 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 14 games from September 18th to October 3rd. Overall in '10, Smoak hit .218 with 14 doubles, 13 homers, 48 RBI, and a .307 OBP in 100 games. It was a disappointment, but the Mariners hope his great finish to the year will carry over into '11. He will have 1 major league season under his belt (he will be 24), and the Mariners hope that experience will jump-start a great career.
Among the others, Smoak is certainly not the best right now. Posey is far and away the top player in this group, then Davis, Alvarez, and Beckham in that order before Smoak. But, does he have the ability to be a great player? Well, the Mariners must think so. If he really deserved the Teixeira comparisons he was getting while on the Rangers, then he will be a great player.
Will the Lee trade end up being a good trade for the Mariners? There are 3 other players that Seattle acquired, but the trade will end up being graded based on Smoak's performance. If he never becomes a star, it was a bad trade. As of now, if I were a Mariners fan, I would have wished for Lee to be traded to the Yankees for Montero.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Will Brandon Webb ever return to his previous form?
From 2003 to 2008, Brandon Webb was among the top 3 pitchers in the National League. Over that span, he went 87-62 with a 3.24 ERA. He finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2003, going 10-9 with a 2.84 ERA and 172 K's in 28 starts, 1 relief apperance, and 180.1 IP. In '04, Webb went just 7-16, but that was because he was on a terrible team that lost a staggering 111 games. He posted a 3.59 ERA and 164 K's in 35 starts and 208 IP. If Webb did have an Achilles' heel that season, it was his control: his walk total was 119, tops in the NL, an average of 5.1 per 9 innings, and he threw 17 wild pitches, also tops in the NL. Still, his 7 wins were 2nd on the team to Randy Johnson's improbable 16 wins on one of the worst teams ever. Webb didn't let the 16 losses haunt him in '05. He had a good year, going 14-12 with a 3.54 ERA and 172 K's in 33 starts and 229 IP. He improved his walk rate to just 2.3 per 9. '05 served as a stepping stone for years to come.
In '06, Webb came out of nowhere (at least in the eyes of non-Diamondbacks fans) to win the NL Cy Young Award. He went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 178 K's in 33 starts and 235 IP. He was tied for 1st in the league in wins, 3rd in ERA, and 10th in strikeouts. He walked jsut 1.9 batters per 9 innings and led the NL with a 0.6 HR/9 ratio. In addition, he had 5 complete games, including 3 shutouts (in 3 consecutive starts), tops in the NL. The funny thing is that Webb had a better season in '07, but "only" finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting. He went 18-10 with a 3.01 ERA and 194 K's in 34 starts and 236.1 IP, most in the NL. His walk rate went up to 2.7 per 9, but he allowed just 0.5 homers per 9, and he improved his H/9 to 8.0 (it was 8.3 in '06). Although Webb had an arguably better season than his Cy Young season of '06, he finished a distant second to unanimous winner Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.54 ERA, 240 K's). By '07, Webb had proved himself as a great starter, one of the best in the majors. He only continued that in '08, going 22-7 with a 3.30 ERA and 183 K's in 34 starts and 226.2 IP. The 22 wins led the majors. Webb had slightly fewer strikeouts, but he was still great, but in '09, everything changed.
Webb started Opening Day 2009 for Arizona. He went 4 innings, giving up 6 runs, before being placed on the DL the next day with a right shoulder injury. He missed the rest of '09 and all of '10. (He has begun pitching in instructional league.) Will he ever be the same?
Webb's exact shoulder injury was right shoulder bursitis. Bursitis is when a bursa (a cavity within a joint) becomes swollen. It's not a terribly serious injury (think 15-day DL), but it often comes about after a rotator cuff injury, which you would think must have been Webb's injury, considering he has missed so much time. Instead he sprained his major teres muscle, but basically the same effect occured. Although it was thought as a strain for nearly all of '09, it eventually required surgery.
Webb is not the same pitcher. The former NL Cy Young had his arm-slot was lowered, potentially changing his delivery. Since he's come back, he's been throwing high-80's. Webb is a free agent. Is he worth the risk for a contender? Will some pitching-deprived team sign him to an incentives-based deal? Well, we'll have to see what happens.
In '06, Webb came out of nowhere (at least in the eyes of non-Diamondbacks fans) to win the NL Cy Young Award. He went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 178 K's in 33 starts and 235 IP. He was tied for 1st in the league in wins, 3rd in ERA, and 10th in strikeouts. He walked jsut 1.9 batters per 9 innings and led the NL with a 0.6 HR/9 ratio. In addition, he had 5 complete games, including 3 shutouts (in 3 consecutive starts), tops in the NL. The funny thing is that Webb had a better season in '07, but "only" finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting. He went 18-10 with a 3.01 ERA and 194 K's in 34 starts and 236.1 IP, most in the NL. His walk rate went up to 2.7 per 9, but he allowed just 0.5 homers per 9, and he improved his H/9 to 8.0 (it was 8.3 in '06). Although Webb had an arguably better season than his Cy Young season of '06, he finished a distant second to unanimous winner Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.54 ERA, 240 K's). By '07, Webb had proved himself as a great starter, one of the best in the majors. He only continued that in '08, going 22-7 with a 3.30 ERA and 183 K's in 34 starts and 226.2 IP. The 22 wins led the majors. Webb had slightly fewer strikeouts, but he was still great, but in '09, everything changed.
Webb started Opening Day 2009 for Arizona. He went 4 innings, giving up 6 runs, before being placed on the DL the next day with a right shoulder injury. He missed the rest of '09 and all of '10. (He has begun pitching in instructional league.) Will he ever be the same?
Webb's exact shoulder injury was right shoulder bursitis. Bursitis is when a bursa (a cavity within a joint) becomes swollen. It's not a terribly serious injury (think 15-day DL), but it often comes about after a rotator cuff injury, which you would think must have been Webb's injury, considering he has missed so much time. Instead he sprained his major teres muscle, but basically the same effect occured. Although it was thought as a strain for nearly all of '09, it eventually required surgery.
Webb is not the same pitcher. The former NL Cy Young had his arm-slot was lowered, potentially changing his delivery. Since he's come back, he's been throwing high-80's. Webb is a free agent. Is he worth the risk for a contender? Will some pitching-deprived team sign him to an incentives-based deal? Well, we'll have to see what happens.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
You have to feel sorry for Brooks Conrad
Brooks Conrad was never supposed to be there. He toiled in the minors for 7 seasons in the Astros organization, including 3 full seasons at Triple-A. He was signed to a minor league contract by the Oakland A's and just toiled in the minors again except for 6 games in the majors in which he hit .158. He was then signed as a free agent by the Atlanta Braves in '09 at age 29. Then, he finally got his big break. Due to injuries, Conrad was brought up to the majors on July 3rd. He hit .344 with 2 homers and 8 RBI's in 14 games. Do you think the Braves would keep someone hitting .344 in the majors? Well, in the case of Conrad, no. He was sent back down to Triple-A after a July 20th against San Francisco. At least he was brought back to the majors in September. But, he hit .000 (yeah, .000) the rest of the season to finish with a .204 BA. Just like the rest of his career- it wasn't meant to be. Conrad appeared to be starting a productive major league career, albeit late, but then he got sent down, and then he slumped.
And then, despite all that, Conrad made the Braves in 2010. He did pretty well, hitting .250 with 11 doubles, 8 homers, 33 RBI, 5 SB, and a .324 OBP in 104 games, but just 177 at-bats.The highlight of his season was a walk-off grand slam to complete an 7-run rally in the bottom of the 9th against the Cincinnati Reds. Even I, a Yankee fan who doesn't care at all about the Braves, could recognize his name after that. Not only was Conrad clutch during that moment in the limelight, but he was also a clutch player over the course of the whole regular season. He hit .378 with runners in scoring position and .275 with runners on base. He hit 5 of his homers with runners on base including 2 grand slams (one of which was the walk-off homer). Then, everything changed.
In the NLDS against the San Francisco Giants, Conrad only had 1 hit in 11 at-bats, but that wasn't even close to the worst part. In Game 3, Conrad made 2 errors: a dropped popup for an unearned run, and a booted grounder. But then, with the game tied at 2, Conrad let the ball go right through his legs for the game-winning run for the Giants. Conrad became the goat of the series. The Giants won Game 4 and that was the end of the Braves' season and Bobby Cox's managerial career. What a way to end it! Not. Conrad has scarred his career and will be remembered for a long time as the player that prematurely ended Cox's career. I'm sorry Brooks, but that's just the way it is. Even 30 homers next season wouldn't change that.
And then, despite all that, Conrad made the Braves in 2010. He did pretty well, hitting .250 with 11 doubles, 8 homers, 33 RBI, 5 SB, and a .324 OBP in 104 games, but just 177 at-bats.The highlight of his season was a walk-off grand slam to complete an 7-run rally in the bottom of the 9th against the Cincinnati Reds. Even I, a Yankee fan who doesn't care at all about the Braves, could recognize his name after that. Not only was Conrad clutch during that moment in the limelight, but he was also a clutch player over the course of the whole regular season. He hit .378 with runners in scoring position and .275 with runners on base. He hit 5 of his homers with runners on base including 2 grand slams (one of which was the walk-off homer). Then, everything changed.
In the NLDS against the San Francisco Giants, Conrad only had 1 hit in 11 at-bats, but that wasn't even close to the worst part. In Game 3, Conrad made 2 errors: a dropped popup for an unearned run, and a booted grounder. But then, with the game tied at 2, Conrad let the ball go right through his legs for the game-winning run for the Giants. Conrad became the goat of the series. The Giants won Game 4 and that was the end of the Braves' season and Bobby Cox's managerial career. What a way to end it! Not. Conrad has scarred his career and will be remembered for a long time as the player that prematurely ended Cox's career. I'm sorry Brooks, but that's just the way it is. Even 30 homers next season wouldn't change that.
Yankee prospects season review
In this post, I will review the 2010 seasons of the top Yankee prospects and figure out how close they are to the majors. I will group them by position.
Catchers:
Jesus Montero: Montero got off to a rough start in 2010, but rebounded to have a great year. He ended up hitting .289 for Triple-A Scranton with 34 doubles, 21 homers, and a .353 OBP in 123 games. The 21 homers were a career-high and the 34 doubles tied a career high. The BA and OBP were Montero's lowest since '07, but it's a good sign that he was able to rebound from the bad start. He also played relatively well defensively, throwing out 23% of runners while posting a .992 Fld%. (Keep in mind that Montero's CS% is higher than both Posada and Cervelli. Of course, he's up against Triple-A base stealers, not big league base stealers.) But, it seems unlikely that he will ever be a full-time catcher. There's a chance that Montero could start 2011 on the big league roster. At the latest, he will arrive in the majors in September 2011. He will turn 21 in November. ETA: Sometime in 2011
Austin Romine: Romine continues to put up decent seasons in the minors. He hit .268 in 2010 for Double-A Trenton with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. His 31 doubles was a career-high. He posted a 23% CS% at catcher with a .994 Fld%. Romine sounds like a good defender and does have potential, but right now he's had trouble handling great fastballs. He'll obviously have to improve that. Romine will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2012
Others: 17 year old Gary Sanchez hit .329 with 8 homers and 43 RBI in 47 games between Rookie ball and Short Season-A. He had some struggles defensively, posting just a .971 Fld% although he did throw out 26% of attempted base stealers. He DH'd 17 times on the year. ETA: September 2014... 19 year old J. R. Murphy hit .255 with 7 homers and 54 RBI in 87 games for Low-A Charleston. His defense is also a work-in-progress, as he posted a .973 Fld% and a 23% CS%. Those struggles caused him to play DH 34 times with Kyle Higashioka catching. ETA: September 2013... 20 year old Kyle Higashioka hit just .225 for Low-A Charleston, but shined defensively, posting a .987 Fld% and a 33% CS%. He could eventually be a decent big league backup. ETA: September 2012
First basemen:
Brandon Laird: Laird had a great season in 2010 for Double-A Trenton. He hit .291 with 22 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 107 games. He was so good that he was promoted to Triple-A Scranton where he hit .246 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .268 OBP in 31 games. A player who has split time between 3rd base and 1st base, Laird's sub-par defense at 3rd will move him to 1st. He posted just a .931 Fld% at 3rd base this year and has a .934 Fld% there for his career. Meanwhile, he has a .992 career Fld% at 1st including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 6 games there in '10. His only full season at 1st was '08 when he played 88 games at the position and posted a .993 Fld%. Pending a Teixeira injury, Laird will probably never get a chance to start at 1st base for the Yankees. So, his value would come as a bench player with a great bat who could play both 1st and 3rd. Laird's bat needs more work at Triple-A, and his glove, particularly at 3rd, needs more work as well. Certainly though, Laird's bat will get him to the majors in 2011. He turned 23 in September. ETA: August or September 2011
Marcos Vechionacci: Vechionacci finally started hitting in 2010 after years of struggles. He hit .283 for Double-A Trenton with 17 doubles, 11 homers, 55 RBI, 6 SB, and a .350 OBP in 114 games. The 11 homers was a career-high, and the .283 BA was a career high for a season in which he played in 80 or more games. His glove has never been great, but he has experience at every infield position. He has 70 career games at 1st, 3rd, and SS in addition to 7 games at 2nd. But, he has just a .958 career Fld%. If he can fix those defensive problems, he could compete for a utility role in 2012. He turned 24 in August. ETA: September 2011
Others: 22 year old Kyle Roller, the Yankees' 8th round pick in June, hit .267 with 5 homers and 31 RBI in 67 games for SS-A Staten Island. He posted a good .367 OBP. But, he posted just a .987 Fld% at first base. ETA: September 2013 or 2014... 18 year old Ramon Flores hit .329 in Rookie ball, and managed to get promoted all the way up to Low-A and High-A, hitting .250 at both levels. He played all 4 corner positions, struggling to the tune of a .948 Fld% at 1st, although he did post a .983 Fld% in RF and 1.000 Fld% in 10 games in LF and 1 at 3rd. Maybe he could be a utility player down the line. ETA: September 2013 or 2014...23 year old Robert Lyerly had a great offensive season in '10, hitting .312 with 36 doubles, 7 homers, 71 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 131 games for Low-A Charleston. But, notice I said "offensive season", not just "season". Lyerly posted a completely disastrous .873 Fld% at 3rd base, his primary position, and just a .978 Fld% at 1st base as well. Well, he's certainly a much better 1st baseman than 3rd baseman. He improve his fielding and keep, hitting at every level if he wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2013 or 2014
Second basemen:
David Adams: David Adams was off to a great start in '10, hitting .309 with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, and a .393 OBP through 39 games. He hadn't even committed an error at 2nd base, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld%! But, then he fractured his ankle and was done for the year. The question is how Adams will come back. It is possible to develop arthritis after an injury like that, but I'm sure the doctors did everything they can to prevent that from happening. If Adams is fine next season, his bat could propel him to the majors by September. Should he be promoted, he also has experience at 3rd base. He is 23 years old. ETA: September 2011 if healthy, September 2012 or 2013 if recovery takes longer than expected
Reegie Corona: Corona had a bad year at the plate in '10, hitting just .238 with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 31 RBI, 14 SB, and a .306 OBP in 105 games at Triple-A Scranton, but he shined defensively. He posted a .998 Fld% at 2nd base, making just 1 error all season. That's even better than Robinson Cano, who will likely win a Gold Glove this year after posting a .996 Fld%, making just 3 errors all year. Corona also played both SS and 3rd base, but he struggling mightily at those positions, posting a .909 Fld% in 8 games at SS and a .895 Fld% in 9 games at 3rd base. Corona profiles well as a utility infielder. He has just a slight chance of winning a spot on the big league roster during spring training in 2011, but should join the big league club at least in September. ETA: Sometime in 2011
Others: 22 year old Corban Joseph had a nice year in 2010, hitting .283 with 33 doubles, 6 homers, 64 RBI, 7 triples, and a .362 OBP in 129 games between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. He did only hit .216 at Trenton after hitting .302 at Tampa. Defensively is another story. He posted just a .967 Fld% at 2B, not horrible, but pretty bad. He definitely needs work on his defense, but his bat should eventually get him to the majors. He will be 22 this month. ETA: September 2013...26 year old Kevin Russo made his MLB debut for the Yankees, hitting .184 with 4 RBI in 31 games. He did post an 1.000 Fld% at both 2nd base and 3rd base, but posted just a .933 Fld% while playing LF (he only made 1 error). His season in the minors was sort of like that also. After hitting .326 in '09, he hit just .259. He posted a great .992 Fld% at 2nd base, but also played every other position besides 1st base, pitcher, and catcher. He wasn't good at any of the other infield positions (.963 Fld% at SS and a .906 Fld% at 3B), or LF (.962 Fld%), but he did post an 1.000 Fld% in 6 combined games in CF and RF. He'll never be a good player, but he will be on the Yankees at some point in '11 as a super-utility player. ETA: He already has arrived, but he'll arrive again sometime in '11
Third base:
Laird (see above)
Bradley Suttle: Suttle rebounded in '10 after missing all of '09 with shoulder surgery. He hit .272 in 133 games for High-A Tampa, with 33 doubles, 10 homers, 80 RBI, 12 SB, and a .340 OBP. But, he posted a sub-par .951 Fld%. Already 24, Suttle really has to make up for his lost time in a hurry. He must improve defensively to continue his great hitting next season for Trenton if he even wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2012
Lyerly (see above)
Rob Segedin: Rob Segedin had a rough first 22 pro games. The Yankees' 3rd round pick in June hit just .244 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, and 10 RBI, and a .344 OBP in 22 games, all but 2 at SS-A Staten Island (the others were at Rookie ball). His defense was even worse, as he posted a .929 Fld% at 3rd base. He definitely needs a lot of work, both offensively and defensively. He will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2014 or 2015
Shortstop:
Eduardo Nunez: Nunez hit .280 with a homer and 5 SB in 30 games for the Yankees after a great 2010 in the minors. He posted an 1.000 Fld% at SS and a .944 Fld% at 3rd (1 error). But, he didn't make the postseason roster (Greg Golson made the team instead). Nunez hit .289 at Triple-A Scranton with 25 doubles, 4 homers, 50 RBI, 23 SB, and a .340 OBP in 118 games. He posted a .976 Fld% at SS in the minors, but just .917 Fld% at 3rd in 11 games, and just a .889 Fld% at 2B in 5 games. If Nunez wants to be a utility infielder for the Yankees in 2011, he must improve his defense. He is 23 years old. ETA: He has already arrived, and will likely make the Yankees out of spring training in 2011
Cito Culver: Culver, the Yankees' 2010 first round pick, struggled in his first taste of pro ball. He did OK at Rookie ball, hitting .269 with 7 doubles, 2 homers, 18 RBI, 6 SB, and a .320 OBP in 41 games. He posted a bad .918 Fld% at SS, but that's the case with most young shortstops. Culver was then promoted to SS-A Staten Island for some reason, and of course he struggled even more against older competition. He hit just .186 in 15 games game and posted just an .897 Fld%. Culver obviously had a disappointing debut, but he's just 18 and has plenty of time to improve. He is set up to be Derek Jeter's replacement at SS, and Jeter isn't going to retire for at least another couple of years. Culver has to improve both offensively and defensively, or Eduardo Nunez might end up replacing Jeter. ETA: Hopefully September 2014, before replacing Jeter in 2015
Others: 20 year old Jose Pirela had a good season for High-A Tampa, hitting just .252, but with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 61 RBI, 13 triples, 30 SB, and a .329 OBP in 130 games. He isn't as good defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at SS (in addition to a .957 Fld% at 2B). If he can improve defensively, maybe he will be a dark house for the starting SS job after Jeter. (If Jeter retires before 2014, Pirela could compete with Nunez to be the starting SS, at least until Culver arrives in the majors.) He will be 21 in November. ETA: 2012 to 2013... 17 year old Angelo Gumbs, the Yankees 2nd round pick in the '10 draft, had a terrible first 7 games, hitting .192 with no homers or RBI's (although he stole 3 bases), and posting just a .880 Fld% (3 errors). Gumbs, who may eventually be moved to the outfield because of Culver, needs a lot of work. ETA: September 2015...
Outfielders:
Slade Heathcott: 2009 1st round pick Slade Heathcott has had an "interesting" start to his career. Originally considered a 5-tool prospect, Heathcott has only shown some of those tools. Heathcott only hit .258 in '10 for Low-A Charleston, so he doesn't appear to be a good hitter for average. Heathcott struck out 101 times, but he did post a .359 OBP. He only 2 homers in '10, so his power hasn't developed yet. But, that's pretty common for young hitters to have their power develop later, and he did have 16 doubles in 76 games. He did show some speed, stealing 15 bases, hitting 3 triples, and scoring 48 runs in those 76 games. But, he was caught stealing 10 times for just a 60% SB success rate. Heathcott posted just a .953 Fld% in '10 (7 errors), so he doesn't seem to be a great defensive player, at least in CF. But, he did have 8 outfield assists, showing off his great arm. (Could he move to RF in the future?) Heathcott struck out 101 times and posted a .359 OBP. Heathcott might develop into a better all-around player, but so far he's been a bust. He has to improve his BA, improve his SB success rate, and improve his defense while waiting for his power to develop. Hopefully that will happen sooner rather than later. He turned 20 on September 28th. ETA: September 2013
Melky Mesa: If you thought the Yankees would never have a Melky again, you were wrong. Melky Mesa hit just .260 for High-A Tampa, but with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 31 SB, 81 runs, and a .338 OBP in 121 games. He posted a good .985 Fld% in CF (3 errors) with 6 outfield assists in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF. He really seems like a blue-chip prospect, but after spending 3 seasons in Rookie and SS-A ball, he's already 23 years old and will turn 24 on January 31st. Still, if Mesa can put up those kind of numbers in the higher levels of the minors, Mesa will have some future with the Yankees. He better move fast, starting with Double-A in 2011. As a legitimate 4-tool prospect (all tools besides BA), Mesa really has a chance. Hopefully he will make the majors in September 2012 after a solid campaign at Triple-A. ETA: September 2012
Others: 24 year old Colin Curtis hit .289 with 24 doubles, 5 homers, 27 RBI, and a .358 OBP in just 66 games at Triple-A Scranton in '10. The reason he played so few games was that he was called up to the Yankees on June 21st because of injuries to Curtis Granderson and Marcus Thames. Before being sent down on July 30th, Curtis hit .256 with a homer and 8 RBI (he didn't any hits in while posting an 1.000 Fld% in both LF and RF (but, his range factor was way below the league average). He also posted an 1.000 Fld% in the minors. Curtis might never be a starter in the outfield for the Yanks, but he could be a valuable bench player. He will be 25 in February. ETA: He already has arrived, and he will likely make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training... 23 year old Deangelo Mack had a pretty good year in '10, hitting .252 with 20 doubles, 12 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 5 SB (7 CS), and a .333 OBP in 116 games for Low-A Charleston. He's a little bit old, but he could potentially provide power off the bench. He better progress in a hurry. ETA: September 2012 (otherwise he probably won't make the majors)...25 year old Ray Kruml is another relatively old prospect, but he has legitimate speed. He hit .267 in 117 games between High-A and Low-A in '10, with 14 doubles, 1 homer, 21 RBI, and a .314 OBP in, all of which are sub-par, but he stole 42 bases while being caught 8 times. He's not a great outfielder, as he posted a .976 Fld% in CF, and a .973 Fld% in LF (in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF). He doesn't seem like even an average player, but maybe he could be a pinch-runner for the Yankees since Brett Gardner is now a starter. ETA: August 2013 (so he could possibly be on the playoff roster that year)...2010 4th rounder Mason Williams, a 19 year old CF, received the largest bonus the Yankees gave out this year, even more than 1st rounder Cito Culver. He hit .222 in 18 at-bats, so we really have no idea how good he'll be or how he'll progress. ETA: My guess is September 2014, but I have no idea
Pitchers:
Andrew Brackman: 2007 1st rounder Andrew Brackman finally got on track. After going 2-12 with a 5.91 ERA in 19 starts and 10 relief apperances for Low-A Charleston in '09, one year after Tommy John surgery, and 5-4 with a 5.10 ERA in 12 starts for High-A Tampa to begin '10, Brackman was promoted to Double-A Trenton and did great. He went just 5-7, but with a 3.01 ERA and 70 K's in 14 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 80.2 IP. This is the pitcher that the Yankees drafted in the 1st round! Hopefully he continues his success in '11, and we'll see him in September. He'll be 25 in December. ETA: September 2011
Ivan Nova: Nova certainly had his best season in '10. He went 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 135 K's in 23 starts and 145 IP before being promoted to the majors (he made his MLB debut earlier in 2010, tossing 3 scoreless innings in 2 relief appearances). After being promoted to stay on August 23rd, Nova went 1-2 with a 4.85 ERA in 7 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 39 IP. That's certainly not good, but it was decent enough to consider Nova for a rotation spot in 2011 (if the Yankees don't sign Cliff Lee). Nova has a promising future ahead for the Yankees, whether as a starter, or a reliever. ETA: Nova has already arrived, and should make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training
David Phelps: Phelps might be the only Yankee pitching prospect who had a better season than Nova in '10. Phelps went 10-2 with a 2.50 ERA in 141 K's in 25 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 158.2 IP. He was completely dominant. He had a 4 to 1 K/BB ratio (8.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9), and just a 7.9 H/9 ratio. His ERA did go up to 3.07 at Triple-A, but even that's good! Phelps is another Yankee starter with a very promising future, but he is a little bit older than Nova at 24. We'll see him in September 2011 along with Brackman. ETA: September 2011
Manny Banuelos: Banuelos had another great year despite missing time with an appendectomy. He went just 0-4 between Rookie ball, High-A, and Double-A, but with a 2.51 ERA and 85 K's in 15 starts and 64.2 IP. That's an 11.5 K/9! He posted his worst ERA among the 3 levels, 3.52, at Double-A, and understandably why. Just 19 years old, Banuelos is an incredible prospect. He should return to Double-A in '11, go to Triple-A in '12, and be promoted to the majors in September of '12. Even then, he'll be just be just 21 years old. ETA: September 2012
Others: 22 year old Dellin Betances went 8-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 108 K's in 17 starts and 85.1 IP between High-A and Double-A. He had a great 4.91 K/BB ratio (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9). His ERA jumped from 1.77 in High-A to 3.77 in Double-A, but that had to be expected. Hopefully he can do better at Double-A in '11, and do well enough at Triple-A in '12 to be promoted in September of that year. ETA: September 2012... 23 year old Graham Stoneburner had a great year in '10, going 9-8 with a 2.41 ERA and 137 K's in 26 starts and 142 IP between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa. He posted a great 4.03 BB/9 (8.7 K/9 and a 2.2 BB/9) while allowing just 6.8 hits per 9 innings. He's a bit old to be in High-A, but a good year in Double-A in '11 and in Triple-A in '12 will get him to the Yankees in September 2012 at age 24 (his birthday is in late September). If he continues to dominate the minors, the Yankees will find a place for him on the roster. ETA: September 2012...18 year old Gabriel Encinas, the Yankees' 6th round pick this year, is a 6"3 righty with great control. He is a sinkerballer with a curveball that has shown flashes and an OK changeup. He could be something in the future. He has yet to make his pro debut. ETA: September 2014 (?)... 21 year old reliever Thomas Kahnle, the Yankee 5th round pick in 2010, had a nice pro debut, posting a 0.56 ERA in 11 relief apperances for SS-A Staten Island. Not that those stats mean so much, but it's always positive to put up a 0.56 ERA at any level. Maybe we'll see him at some point. ETA: September 2013...27 year old starter Lance Pendelton went 12-5 with a 3.61 ERA and 133 K's in 27 starts, 2 relief apperances, and 154.2 IP. He is a bit old, but he has a chance to make an impact in the majors in the near future, probably as a reliever. He has 14 career relief appearances in the minors. He better make the majors soon if he ever wants a chance, with Brackman and Phelps coming. ETA: Sometime in 2011, if ever... 25 year old switch-pitcher Pat Venditte went 5-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 89 K's in 43 relief apperances, 6 saves, and 74.2 IP between High-A and Double-A. But, he struggled at Double-A, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in 2 relief appearances. Venditte will certainly have to turn that around in '11. Already 25 years old, Venditte better dominate Double-A in '11 and Triple-A in '12 and get promoted by September '12 at age 27. He'll make it to the majors eventually because he's such a novelty, but if he ever wants to be a quality reliever in the majors, he better get there quickly. ETA: September 2012
Many of the players I have mentioned will never make the majors, but there is a good chance that a couple of the players I mentioned will be All-Stars for the Yankees.
Catchers:
Jesus Montero: Montero got off to a rough start in 2010, but rebounded to have a great year. He ended up hitting .289 for Triple-A Scranton with 34 doubles, 21 homers, and a .353 OBP in 123 games. The 21 homers were a career-high and the 34 doubles tied a career high. The BA and OBP were Montero's lowest since '07, but it's a good sign that he was able to rebound from the bad start. He also played relatively well defensively, throwing out 23% of runners while posting a .992 Fld%. (Keep in mind that Montero's CS% is higher than both Posada and Cervelli. Of course, he's up against Triple-A base stealers, not big league base stealers.) But, it seems unlikely that he will ever be a full-time catcher. There's a chance that Montero could start 2011 on the big league roster. At the latest, he will arrive in the majors in September 2011. He will turn 21 in November. ETA: Sometime in 2011
Austin Romine: Romine continues to put up decent seasons in the minors. He hit .268 in 2010 for Double-A Trenton with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. His 31 doubles was a career-high. He posted a 23% CS% at catcher with a .994 Fld%. Romine sounds like a good defender and does have potential, but right now he's had trouble handling great fastballs. He'll obviously have to improve that. Romine will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2012
Others: 17 year old Gary Sanchez hit .329 with 8 homers and 43 RBI in 47 games between Rookie ball and Short Season-A. He had some struggles defensively, posting just a .971 Fld% although he did throw out 26% of attempted base stealers. He DH'd 17 times on the year. ETA: September 2014... 19 year old J. R. Murphy hit .255 with 7 homers and 54 RBI in 87 games for Low-A Charleston. His defense is also a work-in-progress, as he posted a .973 Fld% and a 23% CS%. Those struggles caused him to play DH 34 times with Kyle Higashioka catching. ETA: September 2013... 20 year old Kyle Higashioka hit just .225 for Low-A Charleston, but shined defensively, posting a .987 Fld% and a 33% CS%. He could eventually be a decent big league backup. ETA: September 2012
First basemen:
Brandon Laird: Laird had a great season in 2010 for Double-A Trenton. He hit .291 with 22 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 107 games. He was so good that he was promoted to Triple-A Scranton where he hit .246 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .268 OBP in 31 games. A player who has split time between 3rd base and 1st base, Laird's sub-par defense at 3rd will move him to 1st. He posted just a .931 Fld% at 3rd base this year and has a .934 Fld% there for his career. Meanwhile, he has a .992 career Fld% at 1st including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 6 games there in '10. His only full season at 1st was '08 when he played 88 games at the position and posted a .993 Fld%. Pending a Teixeira injury, Laird will probably never get a chance to start at 1st base for the Yankees. So, his value would come as a bench player with a great bat who could play both 1st and 3rd. Laird's bat needs more work at Triple-A, and his glove, particularly at 3rd, needs more work as well. Certainly though, Laird's bat will get him to the majors in 2011. He turned 23 in September. ETA: August or September 2011
Marcos Vechionacci: Vechionacci finally started hitting in 2010 after years of struggles. He hit .283 for Double-A Trenton with 17 doubles, 11 homers, 55 RBI, 6 SB, and a .350 OBP in 114 games. The 11 homers was a career-high, and the .283 BA was a career high for a season in which he played in 80 or more games. His glove has never been great, but he has experience at every infield position. He has 70 career games at 1st, 3rd, and SS in addition to 7 games at 2nd. But, he has just a .958 career Fld%. If he can fix those defensive problems, he could compete for a utility role in 2012. He turned 24 in August. ETA: September 2011
Others: 22 year old Kyle Roller, the Yankees' 8th round pick in June, hit .267 with 5 homers and 31 RBI in 67 games for SS-A Staten Island. He posted a good .367 OBP. But, he posted just a .987 Fld% at first base. ETA: September 2013 or 2014... 18 year old Ramon Flores hit .329 in Rookie ball, and managed to get promoted all the way up to Low-A and High-A, hitting .250 at both levels. He played all 4 corner positions, struggling to the tune of a .948 Fld% at 1st, although he did post a .983 Fld% in RF and 1.000 Fld% in 10 games in LF and 1 at 3rd. Maybe he could be a utility player down the line. ETA: September 2013 or 2014...23 year old Robert Lyerly had a great offensive season in '10, hitting .312 with 36 doubles, 7 homers, 71 RBI, and a .352 OBP in 131 games for Low-A Charleston. But, notice I said "offensive season", not just "season". Lyerly posted a completely disastrous .873 Fld% at 3rd base, his primary position, and just a .978 Fld% at 1st base as well. Well, he's certainly a much better 1st baseman than 3rd baseman. He improve his fielding and keep, hitting at every level if he wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2013 or 2014
Second basemen:
David Adams: David Adams was off to a great start in '10, hitting .309 with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 32 RBI, and a .393 OBP through 39 games. He hadn't even committed an error at 2nd base, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld%! But, then he fractured his ankle and was done for the year. The question is how Adams will come back. It is possible to develop arthritis after an injury like that, but I'm sure the doctors did everything they can to prevent that from happening. If Adams is fine next season, his bat could propel him to the majors by September. Should he be promoted, he also has experience at 3rd base. He is 23 years old. ETA: September 2011 if healthy, September 2012 or 2013 if recovery takes longer than expected
Reegie Corona: Corona had a bad year at the plate in '10, hitting just .238 with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 31 RBI, 14 SB, and a .306 OBP in 105 games at Triple-A Scranton, but he shined defensively. He posted a .998 Fld% at 2nd base, making just 1 error all season. That's even better than Robinson Cano, who will likely win a Gold Glove this year after posting a .996 Fld%, making just 3 errors all year. Corona also played both SS and 3rd base, but he struggling mightily at those positions, posting a .909 Fld% in 8 games at SS and a .895 Fld% in 9 games at 3rd base. Corona profiles well as a utility infielder. He has just a slight chance of winning a spot on the big league roster during spring training in 2011, but should join the big league club at least in September. ETA: Sometime in 2011
Others: 22 year old Corban Joseph had a nice year in 2010, hitting .283 with 33 doubles, 6 homers, 64 RBI, 7 triples, and a .362 OBP in 129 games between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. He did only hit .216 at Trenton after hitting .302 at Tampa. Defensively is another story. He posted just a .967 Fld% at 2B, not horrible, but pretty bad. He definitely needs work on his defense, but his bat should eventually get him to the majors. He will be 22 this month. ETA: September 2013...26 year old Kevin Russo made his MLB debut for the Yankees, hitting .184 with 4 RBI in 31 games. He did post an 1.000 Fld% at both 2nd base and 3rd base, but posted just a .933 Fld% while playing LF (he only made 1 error). His season in the minors was sort of like that also. After hitting .326 in '09, he hit just .259. He posted a great .992 Fld% at 2nd base, but also played every other position besides 1st base, pitcher, and catcher. He wasn't good at any of the other infield positions (.963 Fld% at SS and a .906 Fld% at 3B), or LF (.962 Fld%), but he did post an 1.000 Fld% in 6 combined games in CF and RF. He'll never be a good player, but he will be on the Yankees at some point in '11 as a super-utility player. ETA: He already has arrived, but he'll arrive again sometime in '11
Third base:
Laird (see above)
Bradley Suttle: Suttle rebounded in '10 after missing all of '09 with shoulder surgery. He hit .272 in 133 games for High-A Tampa, with 33 doubles, 10 homers, 80 RBI, 12 SB, and a .340 OBP. But, he posted a sub-par .951 Fld%. Already 24, Suttle really has to make up for his lost time in a hurry. He must improve defensively to continue his great hitting next season for Trenton if he even wants to make the Yankees. ETA: September 2012
Lyerly (see above)
Rob Segedin: Rob Segedin had a rough first 22 pro games. The Yankees' 3rd round pick in June hit just .244 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, and 10 RBI, and a .344 OBP in 22 games, all but 2 at SS-A Staten Island (the others were at Rookie ball). His defense was even worse, as he posted a .929 Fld% at 3rd base. He definitely needs a lot of work, both offensively and defensively. He will turn 22 in November. ETA: September 2014 or 2015
Shortstop:
Eduardo Nunez: Nunez hit .280 with a homer and 5 SB in 30 games for the Yankees after a great 2010 in the minors. He posted an 1.000 Fld% at SS and a .944 Fld% at 3rd (1 error). But, he didn't make the postseason roster (Greg Golson made the team instead). Nunez hit .289 at Triple-A Scranton with 25 doubles, 4 homers, 50 RBI, 23 SB, and a .340 OBP in 118 games. He posted a .976 Fld% at SS in the minors, but just .917 Fld% at 3rd in 11 games, and just a .889 Fld% at 2B in 5 games. If Nunez wants to be a utility infielder for the Yankees in 2011, he must improve his defense. He is 23 years old. ETA: He has already arrived, and will likely make the Yankees out of spring training in 2011
Cito Culver: Culver, the Yankees' 2010 first round pick, struggled in his first taste of pro ball. He did OK at Rookie ball, hitting .269 with 7 doubles, 2 homers, 18 RBI, 6 SB, and a .320 OBP in 41 games. He posted a bad .918 Fld% at SS, but that's the case with most young shortstops. Culver was then promoted to SS-A Staten Island for some reason, and of course he struggled even more against older competition. He hit just .186 in 15 games game and posted just an .897 Fld%. Culver obviously had a disappointing debut, but he's just 18 and has plenty of time to improve. He is set up to be Derek Jeter's replacement at SS, and Jeter isn't going to retire for at least another couple of years. Culver has to improve both offensively and defensively, or Eduardo Nunez might end up replacing Jeter. ETA: Hopefully September 2014, before replacing Jeter in 2015
Others: 20 year old Jose Pirela had a good season for High-A Tampa, hitting just .252, but with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 61 RBI, 13 triples, 30 SB, and a .329 OBP in 130 games. He isn't as good defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at SS (in addition to a .957 Fld% at 2B). If he can improve defensively, maybe he will be a dark house for the starting SS job after Jeter. (If Jeter retires before 2014, Pirela could compete with Nunez to be the starting SS, at least until Culver arrives in the majors.) He will be 21 in November. ETA: 2012 to 2013... 17 year old Angelo Gumbs, the Yankees 2nd round pick in the '10 draft, had a terrible first 7 games, hitting .192 with no homers or RBI's (although he stole 3 bases), and posting just a .880 Fld% (3 errors). Gumbs, who may eventually be moved to the outfield because of Culver, needs a lot of work. ETA: September 2015...
Outfielders:
Slade Heathcott: 2009 1st round pick Slade Heathcott has had an "interesting" start to his career. Originally considered a 5-tool prospect, Heathcott has only shown some of those tools. Heathcott only hit .258 in '10 for Low-A Charleston, so he doesn't appear to be a good hitter for average. Heathcott struck out 101 times, but he did post a .359 OBP. He only 2 homers in '10, so his power hasn't developed yet. But, that's pretty common for young hitters to have their power develop later, and he did have 16 doubles in 76 games. He did show some speed, stealing 15 bases, hitting 3 triples, and scoring 48 runs in those 76 games. But, he was caught stealing 10 times for just a 60% SB success rate. Heathcott posted just a .953 Fld% in '10 (7 errors), so he doesn't seem to be a great defensive player, at least in CF. But, he did have 8 outfield assists, showing off his great arm. (Could he move to RF in the future?) Heathcott struck out 101 times and posted a .359 OBP. Heathcott might develop into a better all-around player, but so far he's been a bust. He has to improve his BA, improve his SB success rate, and improve his defense while waiting for his power to develop. Hopefully that will happen sooner rather than later. He turned 20 on September 28th. ETA: September 2013
Melky Mesa: If you thought the Yankees would never have a Melky again, you were wrong. Melky Mesa hit just .260 for High-A Tampa, but with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 31 SB, 81 runs, and a .338 OBP in 121 games. He posted a good .985 Fld% in CF (3 errors) with 6 outfield assists in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF. He really seems like a blue-chip prospect, but after spending 3 seasons in Rookie and SS-A ball, he's already 23 years old and will turn 24 on January 31st. Still, if Mesa can put up those kind of numbers in the higher levels of the minors, Mesa will have some future with the Yankees. He better move fast, starting with Double-A in 2011. As a legitimate 4-tool prospect (all tools besides BA), Mesa really has a chance. Hopefully he will make the majors in September 2012 after a solid campaign at Triple-A. ETA: September 2012
Others: 24 year old Colin Curtis hit .289 with 24 doubles, 5 homers, 27 RBI, and a .358 OBP in just 66 games at Triple-A Scranton in '10. The reason he played so few games was that he was called up to the Yankees on June 21st because of injuries to Curtis Granderson and Marcus Thames. Before being sent down on July 30th, Curtis hit .256 with a homer and 8 RBI (he didn't any hits in while posting an 1.000 Fld% in both LF and RF (but, his range factor was way below the league average). He also posted an 1.000 Fld% in the minors. Curtis might never be a starter in the outfield for the Yanks, but he could be a valuable bench player. He will be 25 in February. ETA: He already has arrived, and he will likely make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training... 23 year old Deangelo Mack had a pretty good year in '10, hitting .252 with 20 doubles, 12 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 5 SB (7 CS), and a .333 OBP in 116 games for Low-A Charleston. He's a little bit old, but he could potentially provide power off the bench. He better progress in a hurry. ETA: September 2012 (otherwise he probably won't make the majors)...25 year old Ray Kruml is another relatively old prospect, but he has legitimate speed. He hit .267 in 117 games between High-A and Low-A in '10, with 14 doubles, 1 homer, 21 RBI, and a .314 OBP in, all of which are sub-par, but he stole 42 bases while being caught 8 times. He's not a great outfielder, as he posted a .976 Fld% in CF, and a .973 Fld% in LF (in addition to an 1.000 Fld% in 2 games in RF). He doesn't seem like even an average player, but maybe he could be a pinch-runner for the Yankees since Brett Gardner is now a starter. ETA: August 2013 (so he could possibly be on the playoff roster that year)...2010 4th rounder Mason Williams, a 19 year old CF, received the largest bonus the Yankees gave out this year, even more than 1st rounder Cito Culver. He hit .222 in 18 at-bats, so we really have no idea how good he'll be or how he'll progress. ETA: My guess is September 2014, but I have no idea
Pitchers:
Andrew Brackman: 2007 1st rounder Andrew Brackman finally got on track. After going 2-12 with a 5.91 ERA in 19 starts and 10 relief apperances for Low-A Charleston in '09, one year after Tommy John surgery, and 5-4 with a 5.10 ERA in 12 starts for High-A Tampa to begin '10, Brackman was promoted to Double-A Trenton and did great. He went just 5-7, but with a 3.01 ERA and 70 K's in 14 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 80.2 IP. This is the pitcher that the Yankees drafted in the 1st round! Hopefully he continues his success in '11, and we'll see him in September. He'll be 25 in December. ETA: September 2011
Ivan Nova: Nova certainly had his best season in '10. He went 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 135 K's in 23 starts and 145 IP before being promoted to the majors (he made his MLB debut earlier in 2010, tossing 3 scoreless innings in 2 relief appearances). After being promoted to stay on August 23rd, Nova went 1-2 with a 4.85 ERA in 7 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 39 IP. That's certainly not good, but it was decent enough to consider Nova for a rotation spot in 2011 (if the Yankees don't sign Cliff Lee). Nova has a promising future ahead for the Yankees, whether as a starter, or a reliever. ETA: Nova has already arrived, and should make the 2011 Yankees out of spring training
David Phelps: Phelps might be the only Yankee pitching prospect who had a better season than Nova in '10. Phelps went 10-2 with a 2.50 ERA in 141 K's in 25 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 158.2 IP. He was completely dominant. He had a 4 to 1 K/BB ratio (8.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9), and just a 7.9 H/9 ratio. His ERA did go up to 3.07 at Triple-A, but even that's good! Phelps is another Yankee starter with a very promising future, but he is a little bit older than Nova at 24. We'll see him in September 2011 along with Brackman. ETA: September 2011
Manny Banuelos: Banuelos had another great year despite missing time with an appendectomy. He went just 0-4 between Rookie ball, High-A, and Double-A, but with a 2.51 ERA and 85 K's in 15 starts and 64.2 IP. That's an 11.5 K/9! He posted his worst ERA among the 3 levels, 3.52, at Double-A, and understandably why. Just 19 years old, Banuelos is an incredible prospect. He should return to Double-A in '11, go to Triple-A in '12, and be promoted to the majors in September of '12. Even then, he'll be just be just 21 years old. ETA: September 2012
Others: 22 year old Dellin Betances went 8-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 108 K's in 17 starts and 85.1 IP between High-A and Double-A. He had a great 4.91 K/BB ratio (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9). His ERA jumped from 1.77 in High-A to 3.77 in Double-A, but that had to be expected. Hopefully he can do better at Double-A in '11, and do well enough at Triple-A in '12 to be promoted in September of that year. ETA: September 2012... 23 year old Graham Stoneburner had a great year in '10, going 9-8 with a 2.41 ERA and 137 K's in 26 starts and 142 IP between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa. He posted a great 4.03 BB/9 (8.7 K/9 and a 2.2 BB/9) while allowing just 6.8 hits per 9 innings. He's a bit old to be in High-A, but a good year in Double-A in '11 and in Triple-A in '12 will get him to the Yankees in September 2012 at age 24 (his birthday is in late September). If he continues to dominate the minors, the Yankees will find a place for him on the roster. ETA: September 2012...18 year old Gabriel Encinas, the Yankees' 6th round pick this year, is a 6"3 righty with great control. He is a sinkerballer with a curveball that has shown flashes and an OK changeup. He could be something in the future. He has yet to make his pro debut. ETA: September 2014 (?)... 21 year old reliever Thomas Kahnle, the Yankee 5th round pick in 2010, had a nice pro debut, posting a 0.56 ERA in 11 relief apperances for SS-A Staten Island. Not that those stats mean so much, but it's always positive to put up a 0.56 ERA at any level. Maybe we'll see him at some point. ETA: September 2013...27 year old starter Lance Pendelton went 12-5 with a 3.61 ERA and 133 K's in 27 starts, 2 relief apperances, and 154.2 IP. He is a bit old, but he has a chance to make an impact in the majors in the near future, probably as a reliever. He has 14 career relief appearances in the minors. He better make the majors soon if he ever wants a chance, with Brackman and Phelps coming. ETA: Sometime in 2011, if ever... 25 year old switch-pitcher Pat Venditte went 5-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 89 K's in 43 relief apperances, 6 saves, and 74.2 IP between High-A and Double-A. But, he struggled at Double-A, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in 2 relief appearances. Venditte will certainly have to turn that around in '11. Already 25 years old, Venditte better dominate Double-A in '11 and Triple-A in '12 and get promoted by September '12 at age 27. He'll make it to the majors eventually because he's such a novelty, but if he ever wants to be a quality reliever in the majors, he better get there quickly. ETA: September 2012
Many of the players I have mentioned will never make the majors, but there is a good chance that a couple of the players I mentioned will be All-Stars for the Yankees.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
What's wrong with Rivera?
Rivera's numbers this year have been pretty great, but something just isn't right. He has gone 3-3 with a 1.58 ERA and 32 saves in 58 games. He has allowed just 37 hits in 57 innings. He has allowed just 2 homers and 11 walks. But, you probably notice that I've left out a key stat: strikeouts. Rivera has struck out just 44 batters in 57 innings, a rate of 6.9 per 9 innings. Keep in mind that Rivera has a 9.8 K/9 the previous two seasons, in '08 and '09. Mo has been just disastrous in his last 5 games, going 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA. He has 3 saves and 2 blown saves during this stretch. In 4.1 IP, Rivera has given up 7 hits and 2 walks, and has just one strikeout. Has he just gotten old, or is something else wrong with him?
Obvously, if Rivera has finally begun to show his age, that's the reason for his problems. But, I think it may be for a different reason- he just isn't as comfortable in pressure situations anymore. For his career, Rivera has a 1.89 ERA in save situations. In '10, he has a 2.38 ERA, nearly half a run higher. So, now you may be wondering how the heck Rivera has a 1.58 ERA. Simple- he has a 0.39 ERA in 22 appearances in non-save situations. He has a 2.37 ERA in those situations over the course of his career. Rivera has been way better than his career average in situations with less pressure. Should he go into a Trevor Hoffman-like role next season and be demoted to a setup man? Also, one statistical oddity is that the platoon splits against Rivera have gone a bit against his career trends. In his career, Rivera has been better against lefties than righties, with lefties hitting .206 against him compared to .215 by righties. But in '10, it has been the opposite. Rivera has dominated righties, holding them to a .151 BA and no homers. But against lefties, Rivera has "struggled", allowing a .216 BA and 2 homers. It's pretty strange. So, besides the age factor, problems for Rivera have been pressure situations, a lower strikeout rate, and some struggles against lefties. Rivera just hasn't been the near-perfect pitcher that we all recognize. Hopefully that will change in the playoffs.
Obvously, if Rivera has finally begun to show his age, that's the reason for his problems. But, I think it may be for a different reason- he just isn't as comfortable in pressure situations anymore. For his career, Rivera has a 1.89 ERA in save situations. In '10, he has a 2.38 ERA, nearly half a run higher. So, now you may be wondering how the heck Rivera has a 1.58 ERA. Simple- he has a 0.39 ERA in 22 appearances in non-save situations. He has a 2.37 ERA in those situations over the course of his career. Rivera has been way better than his career average in situations with less pressure. Should he go into a Trevor Hoffman-like role next season and be demoted to a setup man? Also, one statistical oddity is that the platoon splits against Rivera have gone a bit against his career trends. In his career, Rivera has been better against lefties than righties, with lefties hitting .206 against him compared to .215 by righties. But in '10, it has been the opposite. Rivera has dominated righties, holding them to a .151 BA and no homers. But against lefties, Rivera has "struggled", allowing a .216 BA and 2 homers. It's pretty strange. So, besides the age factor, problems for Rivera have been pressure situations, a lower strikeout rate, and some struggles against lefties. Rivera just hasn't been the near-perfect pitcher that we all recognize. Hopefully that will change in the playoffs.
Will Grady Sizemore ever regain his pre-injury form?
Grady Sizemore used to be the best young outfielder in baseball. In 2005, his first full season for the Indians (he lost his rookie eligibility by hitting .246 in 43 games in 2004), he burst onto the scene. He hit .289 with 37 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, 11 triples, 22 SB, 185 hits, 111 runs, and a .348 OBP in 158 games. It was an incredible all-around season, and a would be considered a great season, even for a veteran. In 2006, he only got better. He hit .290 with 53 doubles (tops in the league), 28 homers, 76 RBI, 11 triples, 22 SB, 190 hits, 134 runs (also tops in the league), and a .375 OBP in 162 games (obviously tied for most in the league). He was an All-Star and finished 11th in the MVP voting. He showed his ability as a great all-around player. If he had driven in more runs, he would have finished in the top 5 in the MVP voting. But, he was the leadoff hitter in 160 of his 162 games, and leadoff hitters generally don't drive in too many runs. In 2007, he also played in 162 games, hitting .277 with 34 doubles, 24 homers, 78 RBI, 5 triples, 33 SB, 174 hits, 118 runs, and a .390 OBP. He was an All-Star and a Gold Glover, and he finished 12th in the MVP voting. Then, he had another great year in '08, hitting .268 with 39 doubles, 33 homers, 90 RBI, 5 triples, 38 SB, 170 hits, 101 runs, and a .374 OBP in 157 games. Proving my earlier point, he finished 10th in the MVP voting, better than in '06 and '07, despite having worse overall numbers than those years because of his 90 RBI (if he had put up his '06 or '07 stats with 90 RBI, he would have finished top 5 in the MVP voting). He was also an All-Star, Gold Glover, and a Silver Slugger. That's pretty good for his 3rd-best year overall. Just 25, Sizemore was a budding superstar.
But, in '09, it all changed. Sizemore broke down. After playing in 162, 162, and 157 games respectively the three previous seasons, Sizemore played in 108 games due to an elbow injury, and did badly by his standards while he was out there, hitting just .248 with 20 doubles, 18 homers, 64 RBI, 6 triples, 13 SB, 108 hits, 73 runs, and a .343 OBP. When he came back in '10, he clearly wasn't back to full strength, as he hit just .211 with 6 doubles, 0 homers, 13 RBI, 2 triples, 4 SB, 27 hits, 15 runs, and just a .271 OBP before going down for the season after 33 games with a knee injury. Will Sizemore get back on track next season?
Let's search the baseball history books for cases where a great hitter missed significant time. Don Mattingly played in just 102 games in 1990 because of injuries and never had another 100 RBI season after having 100 RBI seasons 5 of the previous 6 years. Jason Giambi twice missed half a season due to injuries: in 2004, and 2007 (there was also a sickness involved). He recovered the first time by following it with a 32 homer, 87 RBI season and a 37 homer, 113 RBI season before getting injured again in '07. He did hit 32 homers and drive in 97 RBI in '08, but he then hit just .196 with 11 homers for Oakland in the first half of '09, and has been a bench player ever since. Rogers Hornsby averaged a .364 BA, 20 homers and 101 RBI from 1916 to 1929 before getting hurt in 1930. He never hit .340, slammed 20 homers, or drove in 100 runs again. Ken Griffey Jr. caught the injury bug in '01, and only had two 30-homer seasons after that, and no 100 RBI seasons (he had seven 30-homer seasons and eight 100 RBI seasons before '01). But, Griffey Jr. recovered after missing most of '95 to average 50 homers and 137 RBI the next five seasons before his '01 injury. Mickey Mantle averaged a .309 BA, 34 homers, and 96 RBI from 1951 to 1962, but after getting hurt in '63, he only had one more 30 homer and 90 RBI season, in '64. So, there have been several cases where great players got injured and never regained their previous form. But, these cases took place later in these players' careers.
But, then there's the flip-side. Babe Ruth recovered from a sickness in 1925 to average 47 homers and 145 RBI the next eight seasons. Joe Morgan played just 10 games in 1968, but averaged a .271 BA, 15 homers, 63 RBI, and 39 SB (great numbers for a 2nd baseman) in the next 16 years of his career. So, there's hope for Sizemore.
Morgan might be the most comparable case. Just like Morgan, Sizemore put together 3 great seasons before he got hurt. Also like Morgan, Sizemore has had a "bridge" year after his injury (Morgan hit just .236 in 1969). But 2011 will be the question. Morgan was an All-Star in 1970. Will Sizemore be an All-Star in 2011? We'll just have to wait and see. Whether it's for the Indians or another team (he was rumored to be traded to the Yankees earlier this year), Sizemore will certainly be given a chance in 2011. Can he show that 2009-2010 was just a blip on the radar?
But, in '09, it all changed. Sizemore broke down. After playing in 162, 162, and 157 games respectively the three previous seasons, Sizemore played in 108 games due to an elbow injury, and did badly by his standards while he was out there, hitting just .248 with 20 doubles, 18 homers, 64 RBI, 6 triples, 13 SB, 108 hits, 73 runs, and a .343 OBP. When he came back in '10, he clearly wasn't back to full strength, as he hit just .211 with 6 doubles, 0 homers, 13 RBI, 2 triples, 4 SB, 27 hits, 15 runs, and just a .271 OBP before going down for the season after 33 games with a knee injury. Will Sizemore get back on track next season?
Let's search the baseball history books for cases where a great hitter missed significant time. Don Mattingly played in just 102 games in 1990 because of injuries and never had another 100 RBI season after having 100 RBI seasons 5 of the previous 6 years. Jason Giambi twice missed half a season due to injuries: in 2004, and 2007 (there was also a sickness involved). He recovered the first time by following it with a 32 homer, 87 RBI season and a 37 homer, 113 RBI season before getting injured again in '07. He did hit 32 homers and drive in 97 RBI in '08, but he then hit just .196 with 11 homers for Oakland in the first half of '09, and has been a bench player ever since. Rogers Hornsby averaged a .364 BA, 20 homers and 101 RBI from 1916 to 1929 before getting hurt in 1930. He never hit .340, slammed 20 homers, or drove in 100 runs again. Ken Griffey Jr. caught the injury bug in '01, and only had two 30-homer seasons after that, and no 100 RBI seasons (he had seven 30-homer seasons and eight 100 RBI seasons before '01). But, Griffey Jr. recovered after missing most of '95 to average 50 homers and 137 RBI the next five seasons before his '01 injury. Mickey Mantle averaged a .309 BA, 34 homers, and 96 RBI from 1951 to 1962, but after getting hurt in '63, he only had one more 30 homer and 90 RBI season, in '64. So, there have been several cases where great players got injured and never regained their previous form. But, these cases took place later in these players' careers.
But, then there's the flip-side. Babe Ruth recovered from a sickness in 1925 to average 47 homers and 145 RBI the next eight seasons. Joe Morgan played just 10 games in 1968, but averaged a .271 BA, 15 homers, 63 RBI, and 39 SB (great numbers for a 2nd baseman) in the next 16 years of his career. So, there's hope for Sizemore.
Morgan might be the most comparable case. Just like Morgan, Sizemore put together 3 great seasons before he got hurt. Also like Morgan, Sizemore has had a "bridge" year after his injury (Morgan hit just .236 in 1969). But 2011 will be the question. Morgan was an All-Star in 1970. Will Sizemore be an All-Star in 2011? We'll just have to wait and see. Whether it's for the Indians or another team (he was rumored to be traded to the Yankees earlier this year), Sizemore will certainly be given a chance in 2011. Can he show that 2009-2010 was just a blip on the radar?
Saturday, September 11, 2010
The roller coaster that is Cliff Lee's career
We all know Cliff Lee as that dominant starter with great control, but he certainly wasn't always like that. A 4th round pick by the Expos, Lee had a terrible pro debut in 2000, going 1-4 with a 5.24 ERA in 11 starts for Short Season-A Cape Fear. He did strike out 63 batters in 44.2 IP, but he also allowed 52 hits and 36 walks. But, in 2001, Lee dominated for High-A Jupiter. He went 6-7, but he posted a 2.79 ERA and 132 K's in 20 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 109.2 IP. He allowed just 78 hits and 46 walks and posted a great 2.8 K/H. After going 7-2 with a 3.23 ERA and 105 K's in 15 starts for Double-A Harrisburg, he was traded in the blockbuster deal that sent Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Lee Stevens to the Indians in exchange for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew. After struggling at Double-A Akron in 3 starts (5.40 ERA), he was promoted to Triple-A Buffalo and went 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 8 starts. He had a brief 'cup of coffee' in September for the Indians, going 0-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 2 starts. In '03, he went 7-1 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 starts at 3 different levels of the minors (including 6-1, 3.27 at Triple-A) before being promoted to the majors. He went 3-3 with a 3.61 ERA in 9 starts for Cleveland. In '04, his first full season in the big leagues, Lee certainly had his ups and downs. He went 14-8 with 161 K's in 33 starts and 179 innings, but he posted a 5.43 ERA and gave up 188 hits. He went 9-1 with a 3.77 ERA in the first half, but 5-7 with a 7.91 ERA in the second half. But, he closed the season well, winning his last 2 starts and posting a 2.03 ERA.
The great finish in '04 carried over into '05 for Lee. He had his first great season, going 18-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 143 K's in 33 starts and 202 IP. He allowed just 194 hits. He was much more consistent, going 9-4 with a 3.89 ERA in the first half and 9-1 with a 3.66 ERA in th, e second half. But, in '06, the consistency disappeared. He went 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA and 129 K's in 33 starts and 200.2 IP. He just allowed way too many hits (224). Lee went 8-6 with a 4.76 ERA in the first half before rebounding to go 6-5 with a 3.96 ERA in the 2nd half. In '07, Lee just plain collapsed. He went 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA and just 66 K's in 16 starts, 4 relief appearances and 97.1 IP. He allowed 112 hits, once again over a hit per inning. All 8 of his loses came on streaks of 4 straight loses in 4 consecutive starts. He was so bad that he was sent down for 10 starts in the minors and was left off Cleveland's postseason roster. Lee's strikeout total went down every year from '04 to '07. Although he proved he could be a good pitcher without striking too many batters out in '05, he allowed too many hits in '04, '06, and '07 to be successful without striking out batters at a higher rate.
Lee finally got the memo to give up less hits in '08. In doing so, he dominated, going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 170 K's in 31 starts and 223.1 IP on his way to the AL Cy Young Award. He allowed just 214 hits and 34 walks. Lee seemingly carried the success into '09, going just 7-9, but with a 3.14 ERA and 105 K's in 22 starts for the Indians before being traded to the Phillies. But, Lee allowed 165 hits in 152 IP. He just pitched with runners on, not allowing many of them to score. For the Phillies, he actually did worse. He went 7-4, but with a 3.39 ERA and 74 K's in 12 starts and 79.2 IP. But, he was dominant in the postseason. In 5 postseason starts, he went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA, including 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA against the Yankees in the World Series. He struck out 33 and walked only 6 in 40.1 IP. Still, after the season, he was traded to the Mariners shortly when the Phillies acquired Roy Halladay. In '09 for the Mariners, he regained his '08 form. After missing the first month of the season with an abdominal strain, he went 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 89 K's in 13 starts and 103.2 IP. But, the most amazing stat of all was that he walked just 6 batters. Six! His K/BB ratio was 14.83, which would be the best ever for a full season. (His current K/BB ratio of 13.42 between the Mariners and Rangers would still be the best ever by a wide margin.) He was then traded to the Rangers on July 9th, and he's been a complete disaster. He has gone just 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA and 72 K's in 11 starts and 80.2 IP. He has allowed 85 hits, over a hit per inning, but he has walked just 6 batters. But, the Rangers might have found the reason Lee has struggled: lower back inflamation. Lee got an injection and will try to get back on track against the Yankees tomorrow.
Lee has had good years and bad years, but at the end of the day he has a 100-60 career record with a 3.89 ERA. He has gone from demoted to the minor leagues to AL Cy Young and from a dominant pitcher for Seattle to a disaster for Texas. He has been good overall, but he has shown inconsistency. Would you want to commit to this guy for 5 years? The Yankees and the other bidders when Lee will be a free agent this offseason will have to make that decision.
The great finish in '04 carried over into '05 for Lee. He had his first great season, going 18-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 143 K's in 33 starts and 202 IP. He allowed just 194 hits. He was much more consistent, going 9-4 with a 3.89 ERA in the first half and 9-1 with a 3.66 ERA in th, e second half. But, in '06, the consistency disappeared. He went 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA and 129 K's in 33 starts and 200.2 IP. He just allowed way too many hits (224). Lee went 8-6 with a 4.76 ERA in the first half before rebounding to go 6-5 with a 3.96 ERA in the 2nd half. In '07, Lee just plain collapsed. He went 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA and just 66 K's in 16 starts, 4 relief appearances and 97.1 IP. He allowed 112 hits, once again over a hit per inning. All 8 of his loses came on streaks of 4 straight loses in 4 consecutive starts. He was so bad that he was sent down for 10 starts in the minors and was left off Cleveland's postseason roster. Lee's strikeout total went down every year from '04 to '07. Although he proved he could be a good pitcher without striking too many batters out in '05, he allowed too many hits in '04, '06, and '07 to be successful without striking out batters at a higher rate.
Lee finally got the memo to give up less hits in '08. In doing so, he dominated, going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 170 K's in 31 starts and 223.1 IP on his way to the AL Cy Young Award. He allowed just 214 hits and 34 walks. Lee seemingly carried the success into '09, going just 7-9, but with a 3.14 ERA and 105 K's in 22 starts for the Indians before being traded to the Phillies. But, Lee allowed 165 hits in 152 IP. He just pitched with runners on, not allowing many of them to score. For the Phillies, he actually did worse. He went 7-4, but with a 3.39 ERA and 74 K's in 12 starts and 79.2 IP. But, he was dominant in the postseason. In 5 postseason starts, he went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA, including 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA against the Yankees in the World Series. He struck out 33 and walked only 6 in 40.1 IP. Still, after the season, he was traded to the Mariners shortly when the Phillies acquired Roy Halladay. In '09 for the Mariners, he regained his '08 form. After missing the first month of the season with an abdominal strain, he went 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 89 K's in 13 starts and 103.2 IP. But, the most amazing stat of all was that he walked just 6 batters. Six! His K/BB ratio was 14.83, which would be the best ever for a full season. (His current K/BB ratio of 13.42 between the Mariners and Rangers would still be the best ever by a wide margin.) He was then traded to the Rangers on July 9th, and he's been a complete disaster. He has gone just 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA and 72 K's in 11 starts and 80.2 IP. He has allowed 85 hits, over a hit per inning, but he has walked just 6 batters. But, the Rangers might have found the reason Lee has struggled: lower back inflamation. Lee got an injection and will try to get back on track against the Yankees tomorrow.
Lee has had good years and bad years, but at the end of the day he has a 100-60 career record with a 3.89 ERA. He has gone from demoted to the minor leagues to AL Cy Young and from a dominant pitcher for Seattle to a disaster for Texas. He has been good overall, but he has shown inconsistency. Would you want to commit to this guy for 5 years? The Yankees and the other bidders when Lee will be a free agent this offseason will have to make that decision.
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