Will Grady Sizemore ever regain his pre-injury form?

Grady Sizemore used to be the best young outfielder in baseball. In 2005, his first full season for the Indians (he lost his rookie eligibility by hitting .246 in 43 games in 2004), he burst onto the scene. He hit .289 with 37 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, 11 triples, 22 SB, 185 hits, 111 runs, and a .348 OBP in 158 games. It was an incredible all-around season, and a would be considered a great season, even for a veteran. In 2006, he only got better. He hit .290 with 53 doubles (tops in the league), 28 homers, 76 RBI, 11 triples, 22 SB, 190 hits, 134 runs (also tops in the league), and a .375 OBP in 162 games (obviously tied for most in the league). He was an All-Star and finished 11th in the MVP voting. He showed his ability as a great all-around player. If he had driven in more runs, he would have finished in the top 5 in the MVP voting. But, he was the leadoff hitter in 160 of his 162 games, and leadoff hitters generally don't drive in too many runs. In 2007, he also played in 162 games, hitting .277 with 34 doubles, 24 homers, 78 RBI, 5 triples, 33 SB, 174 hits, 118 runs, and a .390 OBP. He was an All-Star and a Gold Glover, and he finished 12th in the MVP voting. Then, he had another great year in '08, hitting .268 with 39 doubles, 33 homers, 90 RBI, 5 triples, 38 SB, 170 hits, 101 runs, and a .374 OBP in 157 games. Proving my earlier point, he finished 10th in the MVP voting, better than in '06 and '07, despite having worse overall numbers than those years because of his 90 RBI (if he had put up his '06 or '07 stats with 90 RBI, he would have finished top 5 in the MVP voting). He was also an All-Star, Gold Glover, and a Silver Slugger. That's pretty good for his 3rd-best year overall. Just 25, Sizemore was a budding superstar.

But, in '09, it all changed. Sizemore broke down. After playing in 162, 162, and 157 games respectively the three previous seasons, Sizemore played in 108 games due to an elbow injury, and did badly by his standards while he was out there, hitting just .248 with 20 doubles, 18 homers, 64 RBI, 6 triples, 13 SB, 108 hits, 73 runs, and a .343 OBP. When he came back in '10, he clearly wasn't back to full strength, as he hit just .211 with 6 doubles, 0 homers, 13 RBI, 2 triples, 4 SB, 27 hits, 15 runs, and just a .271 OBP before going down for the season after 33 games with a knee injury. Will Sizemore get back on track next season?

Let's search the baseball history books for cases where a great hitter missed significant time. Don Mattingly played in just 102 games in 1990 because of injuries and never had another 100 RBI season after having 100 RBI seasons 5 of the previous 6 years. Jason Giambi twice missed half a season due to injuries: in 2004, and 2007 (there was also a sickness involved). He recovered the first time by following it with a 32 homer, 87 RBI season and a 37 homer, 113 RBI season before getting injured again in '07. He did hit 32 homers and drive in 97 RBI in '08, but he then hit just .196 with 11 homers for Oakland in the first half of '09, and has been a bench player ever since. Rogers Hornsby averaged a .364 BA, 20 homers and 101 RBI from 1916 to 1929 before getting hurt in 1930. He never hit .340, slammed 20 homers, or drove in 100 runs again. Ken Griffey Jr. caught the injury bug in '01, and only had two 30-homer seasons after that, and no 100 RBI seasons (he had seven 30-homer seasons and eight 100 RBI seasons before '01). But, Griffey Jr. recovered after missing most of '95 to average 50 homers and 137 RBI the next five seasons before his '01 injury. Mickey Mantle averaged a .309 BA, 34 homers, and 96 RBI from 1951 to 1962, but after getting hurt in '63, he only had one more 30 homer and 90 RBI season, in '64. So, there have been several cases where great players got injured and never regained their previous form. But, these cases took place later in these players' careers.

But, then there's the flip-side. Babe Ruth recovered from a sickness in 1925 to average 47 homers and 145 RBI the next eight seasons. Joe Morgan played just 10 games in 1968, but averaged a .271 BA, 15 homers, 63 RBI, and 39 SB (great numbers for a 2nd baseman) in the next 16 years of his career. So, there's hope for Sizemore.

Morgan might be the most comparable case. Just like Morgan, Sizemore put together 3 great seasons before he got hurt. Also like Morgan, Sizemore has had a "bridge" year after his injury (Morgan hit just .236 in 1969). But 2011 will be the question. Morgan was an All-Star in 1970. Will Sizemore be an All-Star in 2011? We'll just have to wait and see. Whether it's for the Indians or another team (he was rumored to be traded to the Yankees earlier this year), Sizemore will certainly be given a chance in 2011. Can he show that 2009-2010 was just a blip on the radar?