Wednesday, June 23, 2010

What's wrong with Burnett?

Burnett got off to an incredible start this year. After 6 starts, he was 4-0 with a 1.99 ERA. Batters were hitting just .245 against him. In the 9 starts since then, he's been 2-6 with a 7.11 ERA. Batters have been hitting .304 against him during this time period. To cap it off, Burnett has gone 0-4 with a 10.35 in his last 4 starts, and 0-2 with a 15.95 ERA in his last 2. Batters have hit .335 against him in his last 4 starts, and .405 against him in his last 2 starts. Yeah, that's right, .405. Every batter on the Phillies and Diamondbacks has turned into Ted Williams against him. What's going on?

For the whole year, there has been a world of difference between home and away for Burnett. At home, he has gone 3-2 with a 3.46 ERA. On the road, he has gone 3-4 with a 5.85 ERA. That's obviously a problem. Are the opposing crowds getting to him?

He doesn't appear to be comfortable unless he has a big lead. He has gone 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his starts when the Yankees have scored 0-2 runs for him, 2-4 with a 6.53 ERA when given 3-5 runs, and 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA when given 6 or more runs of run support.

He also never seems to settle in during his starts. After hitting just .349 against Burnett in the 1st inning, batters hit just .211 against him in the 2nd inning. He's settled in, right? Wrong. Batters hit .315 against him in the 3rd inning. Then, after hitting just .241 against him in the 4th inning, they hit .300 against him in the 5th, .297 in the 6th, and .276 in the 7th. Then batters hit just .000 against him in the 8th. Maybe you can say that he settles down in the 8th, but that's way too late in the game. To put this all in different terms, batters hit .295 against him in their first at-bat, .267 in their 2nd, .290 in their 3rd at-bat, and .211 in their 4th at bat. It's reasonable for him to allow a .349 BA in the 1st inning, but he really needs to consistently settle in after that.

So, without talking about mechanics or anything like that, the 3 things that Burnett needs to fix are pitching away from Yankee Stadium, getting comfortable no matter the score, and settling in after the 1st inning. If he can fix those problems, he can be a very good pitcher.

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