Iwakuma to the A's

The Oakland Athletics have won the bidding for Japanese RHP Hisashi Iwakuma. Iwakuma isn't your average Japanese star pitcher coming from Japan. He went 13-6 with a 3.25 ERA, but just 121 K's in 24 starts and 169 IP. He gave up 169 hits, more than a hit per inning, although he did walk just 43. Contrast him to other big name Japanese starters Daisuke Matsuzaka, who struck out 200 in 186.1 IP his last year in Japan, and Hideo Nomo, who struck out 126 in 114 IP his last year in Japan and 276 in 243.1 IP in his last full year in Japan. Iwakuma's strikeout rate in his last year in Japan is not even comparable to Kei Igawa's stats in his last year in Japan. Igawa struck out 194 in 209 IP, an 8.4 K/9, compared to Iwakuma's 6.4 K/9. To go through a few other active Japanese pitchers, Hideki Okajima had a 10.5 K/9, Kenshin Kawakami had an 8.6 K/9, Takashi Saito had a 7.9 K/9, Hisanori Takahashi also had a 7.9 K/9, while Koji Uehara had a 7.3 K/9, and Hiroki Kuroda, 6.2 K/9. Let's look at those last 4 guys. Kawakami has been up and down as a starter in the big leagues, while Saito, Takahashi, and Uehara have enjoyed success in the big leagues as relievers, and Kuroda has been a successful starter. Among that group, the A's obviously hope that Iwakuma will be most like Kuroda.

The comparison between Iwakuma and Kuroda goes further. Iwakuma posted a 2.3 BB/9 in Japan in '10, similar to Hiroki Kuroda's 2.1 BB/9 in his last year in Japan. Kuroda's career BB/9 in the majors is also 2.1. Could Iwakuma also maintain his 2.3 BB/9? Interestingly, Kuroda's strikeout rate has gone up from 6.2 per 9 to 6.6 per 9 in America. Could the same thing also happen to Iwakuma?

In comparing Iwakuma to Kuroda, I'm realizing this: Iwakuma isn't going to be a big league superstar unless he really becomes a much better pitcher against big league hitters. He will be a nice 3rd starter, posting an ERA in the low to mid 3.00's (Kuroda's ERA in the big leagues has ranged from 3.39 to 3.76). He won't blow away hitters, but he'll get outs. Iwakuma's hype isn't anywhere near what Dice-K's hype was when he came to the US. But, considering Matsuzaka's struggles, Iwakuma certainly has as good of a chance as he does to be "the next great Japanese pitcher".

Will the Yankees re-sign Melky Cabrera?

The Atlanta Braves have released 26 year old switch-hitting outfielder Melky Cabrera and 40 year old right-handed reliever Takashi Saito. Saito, despite his age, had a great year in '10, going 2-3 with a 2.83 ERA and 69 K's in 56 relief appearances and 54 IP with the Braves. Melky had a not-so-great season, hitting .255 with 27 doubles, 4 homers, 42 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and .317 OBP in 147 games. He also had an off-year defensively, posting a just average .988 Fld% in 84 games in LF, a way below average .971 Fld% in 55 games in CF. He did post a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 25 games in RF and have a total of 8 outfield assists. . Should the Yankees resign him?

Let's go back to Melky's years with the Yankees from 2005 to 2009. Melky had his first 'cup of coffee' in the big leagues in '05, hitting .211 in 6 games. He didn't make any errors in centerfield. In '06, Melky won the Yankee LF job. He hit .280 with 26 doubles, 7 homers, 50 RBI, 12 stolen bases, 75 runs, and a .360 OBP in 130 games. He posted a great .994 Fld% in LF and a .992 Fld% in the outfield overall. He led the AL with 12 outfield assists from left field. In '07, Melky became the Yankees' starting centerfielder. He had a nice season, hitting .273 with 24 doubles, 8 homers, 73 RBI, 13 stolen bases, 66 runs, and a .327 OBP in 150 games. He posted just a league-average .989 Fld% in CF, but he led the AL with 14 outfield assists from centerfield. Melky's career had gotten off to a promising start. Also, he turned just 23 in August of '07. It appeared that he was going to be a Yankee outfielder for a long time. He was a fan favorite and one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. He was so good that the Yankees didn't include him in a potential deal for Johan Santana.

But in '08, everything changed for Melky. He had his worst season, hitting just .249 with just 12 doubles, 8 homers, 37 RBI (half his '07 total), 9 stolen bases, just 42 runs, and worst of all a .301 OBP in 129 games. He even had an off-year defensively, posting a below average .985 Fld% in CF with just 7 outfield assists. It was so bad that after the season, the Yankees nearly traded Melky to the Brewers for Mike Cameron. But, they decided to hold on to him in the end.

In '09, Melky rewarded the Yankees for their dedication to him. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, 66 runs, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. But, strangely he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF (obviously tops in the league) but just 2 outfield assists from CF. With Melky having a high value and Brett Gardner ready to become a regular, the Yankees included Melky in the Javier Vazquez deal (Melky, LHP Mike Dunn, and RHP Arodys Vizcaino for Vazquez and Boone Logan.)

After Melky's bad '10, do the Yankees want him back? Even if he does come back, he will certainly never be a full-time starter again, pending an injury. But, he could be a very useful utility outfielder. Let me put it this way: Golson can't hit, Thames can't field, and Kearns is just bad. The Yankees could use a better all-around backup outfielder. The Yankees already have a great outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Swisher, so they don't need a guy like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. They just need one more piece to complete their outfield- a good all-around backup with some pop off the bench. There are other options available, but Melky could be that guy. I think they should re-sign him.