Showing posts with label Johan Santana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Johan Santana. Show all posts

Friday, October 22, 2010

Will the Yankees re-sign Melky Cabrera?

The Atlanta Braves have released 26 year old switch-hitting outfielder Melky Cabrera and 40 year old right-handed reliever Takashi Saito. Saito, despite his age, had a great year in '10, going 2-3 with a 2.83 ERA and 69 K's in 56 relief appearances and 54 IP with the Braves. Melky had a not-so-great season, hitting .255 with 27 doubles, 4 homers, 42 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and .317 OBP in 147 games. He also had an off-year defensively, posting a just average .988 Fld% in 84 games in LF, a way below average .971 Fld% in 55 games in CF. He did post a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 25 games in RF and have a total of 8 outfield assists. . Should the Yankees resign him?

Let's go back to Melky's years with the Yankees from 2005 to 2009. Melky had his first 'cup of coffee' in the big leagues in '05, hitting .211 in 6 games. He didn't make any errors in centerfield. In '06, Melky won the Yankee LF job. He hit .280 with 26 doubles, 7 homers, 50 RBI, 12 stolen bases, 75 runs, and a .360 OBP in 130 games. He posted a great .994 Fld% in LF and a .992 Fld% in the outfield overall. He led the AL with 12 outfield assists from left field. In '07, Melky became the Yankees' starting centerfielder. He had a nice season, hitting .273 with 24 doubles, 8 homers, 73 RBI, 13 stolen bases, 66 runs, and a .327 OBP in 150 games. He posted just a league-average .989 Fld% in CF, but he led the AL with 14 outfield assists from centerfield. Melky's career had gotten off to a promising start. Also, he turned just 23 in August of '07. It appeared that he was going to be a Yankee outfielder for a long time. He was a fan favorite and one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. He was so good that the Yankees didn't include him in a potential deal for Johan Santana.

But in '08, everything changed for Melky. He had his worst season, hitting just .249 with just 12 doubles, 8 homers, 37 RBI (half his '07 total), 9 stolen bases, just 42 runs, and worst of all a .301 OBP in 129 games. He even had an off-year defensively, posting a below average .985 Fld% in CF with just 7 outfield assists. It was so bad that after the season, the Yankees nearly traded Melky to the Brewers for Mike Cameron. But, they decided to hold on to him in the end.

In '09, Melky rewarded the Yankees for their dedication to him. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, 66 runs, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. But, strangely he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF (obviously tops in the league) but just 2 outfield assists from CF. With Melky having a high value and Brett Gardner ready to become a regular, the Yankees included Melky in the Javier Vazquez deal (Melky, LHP Mike Dunn, and RHP Arodys Vizcaino for Vazquez and Boone Logan.)

After Melky's bad '10, do the Yankees want him back? Even if he does come back, he will certainly never be a full-time starter again, pending an injury. But, he could be a very useful utility outfielder. Let me put it this way: Golson can't hit, Thames can't field, and Kearns is just bad. The Yankees could use a better all-around backup outfielder. The Yankees already have a great outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Swisher, so they don't need a guy like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. They just need one more piece to complete their outfield- a good all-around backup with some pop off the bench. There are other options available, but Melky could be that guy. I think they should re-sign him.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Why has Hughes gotten off to such an incredible start?

Phil Hughes has been the best Yankee pitcher so far this year, going 5-0 so far with a 1.38 ERA, 39 K's, and just 14 walks in 6 starts and 39 IP. He has not given up more than 2 runs in a start all year. Why has he been so good?

Including his days as a reliever, righties have hit .203 against Hughes during his career and lefties have hit .264 against him. So far in '10, righties are hitting just .109 against Hughes, and lefties are hitting just .208. Hughes has not started off well in April and May during his career, as he has posted a 5.36 ERA in April and a 4.22 ERA in May. Hughes had an incredible April in '10, posting a 2.00 ERA, but so far in May, he has a 0.85 ERA. Hughes has always rose to the occasion with runners in scoring position, as opposing batters have hit just .224 against him in those situations, but in '10, he's buckled down even more, allowing just a .154 BA with RISP.

These career numbers for Hughes sound pretty good, right? In a tie game, batters hit .251 off Hughes, when there's a 1 run margin in the game, batters hit .233 off Hughes, with a 2 run margin, a .227 BA, and with a 3 run margin, a .231 BA. When he's ahead, batters have hit .198 off Hughes during his career, and when behind, runners have hit .254 off of him. In '10, when there has been a tie game, batters have hit .098 against Hughes, with a 1 run margin, .095, with a 2 run margin, .116, and with a 3 run margin, .130. You can even look at the OBP's for those situations (.229, .219, .216, and .229 respectively) and they're still better than his career BA against in those situations. That's incredible! Batters have hit .206 against Hughes when he's been ahead in '10, and .000 when he's behind. No, that's not a typo, .000. The Yanks have given Hughes good run support, so he's only had 4 batters bat against him in 2 different games when he was behind, and none of them have a hit, so that's also very good. (All the batting averages in this paragraph from '10 were his batting average against in those situation before tonight's game).

No one expects Hughes to keep up these kind of numbers (if he does, he'll win the AL Cy Young, no doubt about it), but Hughes is showing what the Yankees saw in him in before the 2004 MLB draft, and in the minor leagues. Hughes disappointed a lot of the Yankee people and a lot of fans when given a chance as a starter in '07, going 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA. People gave up on him. I gave up on him. I was mad that the Yanks didn't trade him in a possible Johan Santana deal. But, the Yankees knew what they were doing. The Yankees knew they had a future all-star in Hughes. That's what he's showing right now.