2011 MLB Preview: San Francisco Giants

The defending champion San Francisco Giants seemed primed to build a dynasty. After watching them dismantle the Texas Rangers, at least we all thought so. But, 2011 is a new season, with a reinvigorated division and an even stronger Phillies team standing in their way. Can they put everything together again or will they be one-and-done?

Catcher:

After winning the NL Rookie of the Year in 2010, the expectations will be high for Buster Posey. Posey is motivated to exceed those expectations. Nobody expected anybody to steal the NL Rookie of the Year award from Jason Heyward. Posey did just that. Posey had a great rookie season, hitting .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in just 108 games. He slugged .505, way above the league average of .415, and his .862 OPS makes the league average of .748 pale in comparison. And it's not like he was extremely lucky, considering he posted a .315 BAbip, which was above-average, but certainly reasonable and relatively common. Defensively, Posey posted a just below-average .991 Fld%, but he posted a 37% CS% which ranked 4th in the NL. He had an amazing year, and accordingly, he finished 11th in the NL MVP voting. At age 23, it's only uphill from here for Posey. He'll be backed up by Eli Whiteside. Whiteside isn't a completely helpless player at the bat, considering he hit .238 in '10 with 6 doubles, 4 homers, and 10 RBI, although he posted just a .299 OBP in 56 games and 140 PA. Defensively, he posted a .994 Fld% in '10 with a 29% CS%, so he's pretty good defensively as well. Posey is just an amazing player at catcher for the Giants.

First base:

After the 2009 season, Aubrey Huff was a forgotten player. He had hit a career-low .241 in '09 with just a .310 OBP. The Giants signed him from the scrap-heap for just 3 million dollars on a one-year deal. What a move by them. Huff hit .290 in '10 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, 100 runs, 5 triples, 7 stolen bases (0 CS), and a career-high .385 OBP in 157 games. Obviously the career-high in OBP at age 33 was pretty amazing, but even crazier was his 7 for 7 in stolen base attempts one season after going 0 for 6. He also walked nearly as many times as he struck out, 83 to 91. He also did it with a .303 BAbip, essentially neutral. In his first career postseason appearance, Huff hit .268 with 1 homer and 8 RBI in 15 games. He also posted an above-average .995 Fld% defensively at first base. Huff had a really great year in '10 and was rewarded with a two-year, 20 million dollar contract with a 10 million dollar team option for the third year. But, will he be anywhere near as good over the next three years as he was in 2010? Everyone's gut feeling seems to be no. Bill James has him hitting .269 in '11 with 19 homers, 75 RBI, and just a .348 OBP in 548 plate appearances (he had 668 in '10). Huff might play pretty well in 2011, but the Giants definitely made a mistake by signing Huff to a two-year deal. There's absolutely no guarantee that he his production won't drop off in 2011 and never return to its previous levels. And, where will his signing leave top prospect Brandon Belt? Belt, a 2009 5th-round pick as a first baseman who will turn 23 in April, is considered by almost everyone to be the Giants' top prospect. He had a huge season in the minors in 2010, advancing from High-A all the way to Triple-A and hitting .352 overall with 43 doubles, 23 homers, 112 RBI, 10 triples, 99 runs, 22 stolen bases, and a .455 OBP in 136 games. He did hit just .229 in 13 Triple-A games, with 4 homers, 10 RBI, and a .393 OBP. Belt posted a .992 Fld% at first base in '10, and a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 11 games in RF and 3 games in LF. But, in addition to Huff at first base, the Giants have established players Mark DeRosa in left field, and playoff hero Cody Ross, the Giants have no position they can start Belt at, barring an injury. But, the good news for the Giants is that the contracts of both DeRosa and Ross run out after 2011, so they could let at least one of them walk, opening up a starting job for Belt in the outfield (I bet they let DeRosa walk). Belt probably needs a full season at Triple-A anyway. Huff's backup at the big league level will be Travis Ishikawa. Ishikawa hit .266 in '10 with 11 doubles, 3 homers, 22 RBI, and a .320 OBP in 116 games, but just 176 PA. He posted an 1.000 Fld% in 73 games at first base in '10, and has a .995 Fld% there for his career. He's a fine backup. Aubrey Huff appears to have at least one more decent year in him, but he could be a problem for the Giants in 2012.

Second base:

When healthy, Freddy Sanchez will be the Giants' second baseman in '10. But, the 33 year old ex-batting champ (2006) has played in just 111 games each of the past two seasons, so his backups have certainly gotten their share of AB's. In 2010, Sanchez missed until May 19th with shoulder injuries. But, in those 11 games when he was healthy, he did pretty well, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP. He had a .330 BAbip, so you would think he was lucky, but it was actually because he had an above-average LD% and an above-average IP%. (Also, realize that he has a .324 career BAbip.) Defensively at second base, he posted a very good .991 Fld%, but he did show poor range. When healthy, Sanchez is a good presence at the top of the Giants' lineup. Sanchez will be backed up by Mike Fontenot and Emmanuel Burriss (if he makes the team). Fontenot, acquired in a trade with the Cubs (through waivers) in August, did make a few starts for the Cubs the past couple of years. Fontenot, who will turn 31 in June, hit .283 between the Cubs and Giants in '10 with 13 doubles, 1 homer, 25 RBI, 3 triples, and a .331 OBP in 103 games, but just 261 PA. He made just 55 starts, but he made 100 starts in 2009. In '09, he hit .236 with 22 doubles, 9 homers, 43 RBI, and a .301 OBP in 135 games. That amounted to an even 0.0 WAR. At least he's not negative (well, not until you factor in his defense that year). Fontenot is an average defender at second base and third base (in addition to being an awful shortstop), but he has shown bad range. He's certainly not a great backup. Burriss spent his age 25 season of 2010 primarily in the minors after spending most of '08 and '09 and the big league roster. In limited time at the majors in '10, he hit an even .400 (2 for 5), while hitting .279 with 11 doubles, 0 homers, 23 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 72 minor league games. He missed quite a big of time when he re-injured a fracture of a bone in his foot that also cost him most of 2009. IN 2009 before the injury, Burriss hit .238 with 6 doubles, 0 homers, 13 RBI, 11 stolen bases, and just a .292 OBP in 61 games (220 PA). In '08, he hit .283 with 6 doubles, 1 homers, 18 RBI, 3 stolen bases, and a .357 OBP in 95 games. In 163 major league games, he had hit .264 with 12 doubles, 1 homer, 31 RBI, 24 stolen bases, and a .329 OBP. He's a below-average defender with below-average range at both second base and shortstop. If Sanchez does get hurt, I don't think either Fontenot or Burriss would be an adequate replacement. They are halfway decent as backups. Sanchez is a pretty good player, but he has to stay healthy in 2011.

Third base:

The enigma that is Pablo Sandoval is lined up to play third base for the Giants in '11. In 2009, "Kung Fu Panda", just 22 years old, burst onto the scene, hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI, 79 runs, and a .387 OBP in 153 games. He even managed to post an above-average .960 Fld% at third base, albeit with below-average range. He even finished 7th in the NL MVP voting. He was already considered a star. Apparently those considerations were premature. Sandoval was nothing special in 2010, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. (He did lead the league in a stat for the first time: double plays grounded into.) He posted a .961 Fld%, above-average again, and with slightly better, but still below-average range. I could probably talk about Sandoval's fielding, but it's pretty clear that Sandoval will always be a below-average defender. Let's talk about the more pressing issue, Sandoval's hitting. How did his BA decrease from .330 to .268? How did his homers free-fall from 25 to 13? What the heck happened? I hate to say it, but Sandoval didn't have an off-year in '10, he had the kind of season he should of had all along. Why did Sandoval hit .330 with 25 homers in '09? A .350 BAbip and a 10.4% HR/FB despite a league-average 19% LD%. In 2010, he had a .291 BAbip and a 5.5% HR/FB even though he had a 20% LD%. He just got lucky in 2009. I was shocked to see that Bill James had him hitting .308 with 18 homers, 78 RBI, and a .363 OBP. I respectfully disagree. Sandoval isn't as bad as he was in 2010, but I can't see him hitting anything above .300, maybe with 15 homers and 70 RBI. (Fine, those stats are pretty similar, but they certainly make a difference.) Sandoval is a decent player, but he's not a star. Sandoval will be backed up by Fontenot and Ryan Rohlinger (if he makes the team). Rohlinger, 27, has nothing left to prove in the minors. In his second season at Triple-A, Rohlinger hit .311 with 11 doubles, 8 homers, 48 RBI, and a .392 OBP in 77 games while posting an above-average .978 Fld% at SS and a ridiculous .984 Fld% at third. He has shown great range at third and decent range at short. Rohlinger's career high in games played in the majors was 21 in 2008, and although he has a .136 BA, he deserves an extended chance. He could be an effective backup. Pablo Sandoval is overrated, but he should bounce back a bit in 2011.

Shortstop:

This offseason, the Giants Miguel Tejada, who will turn 37 in May, to a 1 year, 6.5 million dollar contract, replacing World Series MVP Edgar Renteria. Tejada isn't the player he used to be. He hasn't hit 20 homers or driven in 100 runs since 2006. But, he's still a decent player. In 2010, he hit .269 between the Orioles and Padres with 26 doubles, 15 homers, 71 RBI, and a .312 OBP in 156 games. He had a .280 BAbip, just a bit unlucky (with a .318 BAbip in 2009, he hit .313). He posted a great .987 Fld% at shortstop, but of course with below-average range. (He posted just a .947 Fld% at third base, although he did show decent range). He's lost most of his power, but he's still a pretty good player offensively and he's decent defensively. He'll be backed up by Fontentot, Burriss, and Rohlinger (maybe more like Fontenot and Burriss or Rohlinger). Miguel Tejada is still a decent player, and he'll do OK for the Giants.

Left field/Right field:

The Giants could go with various outfield alignments, nearly all of which featuring Andres Torres in centerfield. But, there's some debate as to left field and right field. There are three players for two spots: Cody Ross, Mark DeRosa, and Pat Burrell. Ross, 30, hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 stolen bases, and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and Giants. He hit .294 with 5 homers and 10 RBI, and a .390 OBP in the playoffs, winning the NLCS MVP. His decrease in the homers in the regular season was due to a decrease in HR/FB from 9.9% to 7.5% (his lowest since '05). His career HR/FB is 10.4%. Around 7.7% is neutral, but obviously that mixes in power hitters and the Jason Kendall's of the world who have hit 20 homers since '02. Ross averaged 18 homers per season from '06 to '09, so I would expect Ross to hit right around 20 homers in 2011 (Bill James says 18). He'll almost definitely start somewhere. He has a .976 career Fld% in both left field and right field (.994 in centerfield where he has played the most games), but he has more experience in right field, so he'll probably start in right field. DeRosa lasted until May 8th in '10 before going down with a wrist injury. He's questionable for the start of spring training. He hit .268 with a .348 OBP, averaging 26 doubles, 22 homers, and 82 RBI from '08 to '09. But, DeRosa is 36, so that just might have been his late prime, and now it's over. DeRosa plays better in right field than left field, but of course he plays everywhere, and he still has a .991 Fld% in left field (compared to .997 in right), so he would do fine defensively. But, is he any better than Burrell? If you make him the starter in left field, than he can't be the utility player he's been his whole career! He could theoretically get starts in left field, second base, shortstop, and third base as a utility player (in which case you could insert DeRosa into the backups list for each of those positions). But, before we decide whether to commit DeRosa to left field, let's look at Burrell's stats. Burrell, 34 now, hit .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between the Rays and Giants. He posted a slightly below-average .984 Fld% in left field with just below-average range, so he's not a liability defensively. I think that you don't know what you're going to get from DeRosa offensively after wrist surgery, so the Giants should start Ross in right and Burrell in left. DeRosa, if healthy, would still get close to 400 PA as a utilityman. The Giants will have to decide their alignment, but that's what I think. The backup in right field will be Nate Schierholtz. Schierholtz, who turned 27 on February 15th, hit .242 in '10 with 13 doubles, 3 homers, 17 RBI, 3 triples, 4 stolen bases, and a .311 OBP in 137 games (252 PA). In 109 games, but just 41 starts in right field, Schierholtz posted a .992 Fld% with 7 outfield assists. He's very good defensively. The Giants' alignment in left field and right field is a bit complicated, but they have three capable players in Ross, DeRosa, and Burrell who would be fine starters.

Centerfield:

Andres Torres appeared out of nowhere in 2010 to have a very good season as the Giants' starting centerfielder, hitting .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 stolen bases, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. He posted a .995 Fld% in 84 games in centerfield, and he was perfect in 70 combined games in left field and right field. Not only did he post great fielding percentages, but also, he showed great range. And he did all of this in his first full season in the majors at age 32. Torres spent 12 seasons in the minors (1998-2009), playing in just 164 major league games over that time, but the Giants finally gave him his first real chance, and he did not disappoint. Torres did have a .331 BAbip, but you have to root for this guy that he'll be able to keep that up. He also did have a 21% LD% in '10, so it's not that far-fetched. I'm sure that he'll be a good player both offensively and of course defensively again in 2011. Torres will be backed up by Aaron Rowand. Rowand, now 33, is not the same player anymore and he has no versatility (he hasn't played any defensive position besides centerfield since 2004), but he's signed for two more years at 24 million dollars per year. Rowand hit just .230 in '10, with 12 doubles, 11 homers, 34 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and just a .281 OBP in 105 games. At least he's still good defensively (1.000 Fld% in centerfield in '10 with decent range). Interestingly, Torres' possible future replacement is going to Triple-A in , 2011 Darren Ford. Ford hit .251 at Double-A Richmond with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 40 RBI, 9 triples, 37 stolen bases, and a .315 OBP in 113 games. Ford stole an incredible 198 bases from '06 to '08 at the three A levels (SS-A, Low-A, High-A). He posted a decent .985 Fld% in centerfield with good range. He could become a younger Torres with more speed and less power. With Rowand on the team, Ford couldn't even make the Giants if he hit .800 in spring training. Andres Torres is a nice story for the Giants, and that great story should continue in 2011.

Starting Rotation:

In 2010, Giants ace Tim Lincecum had one of the best off-years you will ever see, going 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA, and 231 K's (most in the NL) compared to 76 walks in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He allowed 194 hits, 8.2 per 9, and 18 homers, 0.8 per 9. He had a increase in hits, homers, and walks allowed, while having a decrease in strikeouts compared to his Cy Young years of '08 and '09. Those factors caused his ERA to jump by nearly a full run. His BAbip went up to a career-high .315, so he was a bit unlucky, and his HR/FB went up to career-high 6.8%. If those numbers return down to his career averages of .301 and 5.2% respectively, Lincecum's ERA will certainly be back in the 2.00's. Lincecum was pretty lucky during his Cy Young years, having a 3.9 HR/FB, but he's certainly a good enough pitcher to still post an ERA in the 2.00's without being lucky. He was certainly good enough to lead the Giants to the championship, going 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA in the playoffs. He's certainly a top-end pitcher, and you have to remember that he won't even turn 27 until June and he's won two Cy Youngs. He's not as good with the bat, hitting just .104, but he had 5 RBI and 13 sac bunts. Lincecum is a very good ace for the Giants.

Matt Cain wasn't too shabby either, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA in '10 with 177 K's compared to 61 walks in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He allowed 181 hits, a 7.3 H/9, and 22 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. He arguably had a better season than Lincecum (but, he didn't lead the league in any categories). He was lucky, allowing just a .254 BAbip, but then again, he allowed just a 17% LD%. In the playoffs, Cain was unbelievable, going 2-0 with a perfect 0.00 ERA in 3 starts. Cain is a solid pitcher, and he's young too, just 26 years old and already in his 6th season in the majors. He hit .106 with 1 RBI and 10 sac bunts. Cain is a great number 2 starter for the Giants.
How many good young pitchers do the Giants have? 28 year old southpaw Jonathan Sanchez had his best season in 2010, going 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA, and 205 K's compared to 96 walks (most in the NL) in 33 starts, 1 RA, and 193.1 IP. He allowed just 142 hits, just 6.6 per 9, best in the NL, but 21 homers, a 1.0 HR/9. Why did Sanchez improve so much from his 4.24 ERA in 2009? Well, for starters he had a .255 BAbip, easily the best of his career, but he wasn't lucky. He had a 17% LD%, and just a 60% IP% (league average 69%). He was pretty much unhittable, except when he did get hit, he got hit pretty hard, allowing 21 homers despite an 8.6 HR/FB that wasn't that much above average. Still, he's a good pitcher. He didn't do all that well in the playoffs, going 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA. He hit .138 with 3 RBI and 7 sac bunts. Sanchez is a very good Jackson is a very good third starter for San Francisco.


The youngest of this group, 21 year old Madison Bumgarner, might end up being the best of them (that's a tall order with Lincecum and Cain among the group). He had a very good rookie season, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA, and 86 K's compared to 26 walks in 18 starts and 111 IP. He allowed 119 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.6 per 9, and 11 homers, 0.9 per 9. How was he so successful with the bad hit and homer rates? An 81.7% strand rate (runners left on base at the end of innings). Based on that, you would think that Bumgarner isn't that good. But, he had a .314 BAbip despite a 17% LD%. A few too many ground balls went through the hole, but when they did, Bumgarner buckled down and got through the inning. When everything evens out, Bumgarner could be posting a 3.00 or less ERA for years to come. He went 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA in 4 postseason games, 3 starts. Maybe that's what he could be. Bumgarner hit .179 with 3 RBI and 3 sac bunts. Expect Madison Bumgarner to take another step forward in 2011.

Barry Zito is a unique pitcher in the Giants' rotation. He's the only one over 30 (he'll turn 33 in May). He's the only one making over 10 million dollars (18.5 million). He's the only one the couldn't manage a winning record in '10 (9-14). And, he's the only one that posted an ERA over 4.00 (4.15). Not a good combination at all. He hasn't managed a winning record or an ERA under 4.00 while on the Giants. He hasn't isn't even pitched a 200-inning season! In 2010, he came 2/3 of an inning short, pitching 199.1 innings. Putting all the stats together, Zito went 9-14 with a 4.15 ERA, and 150 K's compared to 84 walks in 33 starts, 1 RA, and 199.1 IP. He allowed 184 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and 20 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. He put up those numbers with a .286 BAbip, a 6.5 HR/FB, and a 19% LD%. He's just a league-average pitcher at this point in his career. But, he's the Giants' 5th starter, and a very good 5th starter at that. How many 5th starters post a low-4.00's ERA? He is a very good bunter- he hit just .118 with 2 RBI, but with 14 sac bunts. Zito is ridiculously overpaid, but he's a good 5th starter for the Giants.

Bullpen:

Jeremy Affeldt was one of the best middle relievers in baseball in 2009, posting a 1.73 ERA in 74 RA's. Different story in 2010. He posted a 4.14 ERA in 53 appearances. What was the difference? Well, first of all, the ERA's aren't the full story. In 2009, he went 2-2 with that 1.73 ERA, 55 K's, 31 walks, and an incredible 33 holds in 74 RA's and 62.1 IP. He allowed 42 hits, a 6.1 H/9, and 3 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. In 2010, he went 4-3 with a 4.14 ERA, 44 K's, 24 walks, just 7 holds, and 4 saves in 53 RA's and 50 IP. He allowed 56 hits, a 10.1 H/9, and 4 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. The obvious difference is hits allowed. His H/9 jumped by 4.0! Was it BAbip? Heck yes. His BAbip jumped from .250 to .356, from very lucky, to very unlucky. Let's say he has a .300 BAbip. Average out his H/9's from '09 and '10, and he'll have an 8.1 H/9, which is fine. But, was there any reason his BAbip went up so sharply? Yes, his ground ball rate. Ground balls are more likely to be fielded (not necessarily cleanly) than line drives and fly balls. In 2009, he had a 1.91 GB/FB ratio, a 3.09 GO/AO (ground out divided by air out) ratio, and a 30% DP% (percentage of double plays out of double play opportunities). In 2010, those numbers went down to 1.40, 1.97, and just 8% respectively. Can Affleldt get to his previous ground ball rates. That remains to be seen. At least his ERA wasn't that bad in 2010.

Sergio Romo was the exact opposite of Affeldt, posting his best numbers in 2010. Romo, who will turn 28 on March 4th, went 5-3 in '10 with a 2.18 ERA, 70 K's, just 14 walks, and 22 holds in 68 RA's and 62 IP. He allowed 46 hits, 6.7 per 9, but 6 homers, 0.9 per 9. The homers were his only real problem. Romo had a .265 BAbip, so you would think that he was a bit lucky, but that was not the case. He had such a low BABip because he had such a low LD%, 12%. Romo's LD% was an average 19% when he had a 3.97 ERA in 45 games, but it was 12% also in 2008 when he posted a 2.12 ERA in 29 games. The Giants have to hope that it's not an every-other-year kind of pattern and more like a trend he'll continue for at least the next couple of years. If so, Romo will be a very good reliever, continuously posting ERA's in the 2.00's. If not, expect an Affeldt-esque decline in 2011.

30 year old right-hander Santiago Casilla also had a great year for the Giants in 2010, going 7-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 56 K's, 26 walks, 11 holds and 2 saves in 52 RA's and 55.1 IP. He allowed 40 hits and 2 homers, which amount to a 6.5 H/9 and a great 0.3 HR/9 respectively. But, how did he have such a great year after posting a 4.76 ERA from '07 to '09 with the Athletics? First of all, we have to look at would expect a huge increase in ERA in 2011. From '07 to '09, he had a .323 BAbip, and he had a .346 BAbip from '08 to '09. His luck improved in 2010, so he had a much better year. But, there's a couple of problems for Casilla going forward. In 2010, he was lucky enough to have a 3.3 HR/FB. He could allow double as many homers (0.6 HR/9) if his HR/FB returns to neutral. His 60% IP% was outstanding, but he had a bad 21% LD%. Casilla was pretty hard to hit, but when he got hit, he got hit hard. But, lucky for him, a bunch of those line drives and fly balls landed in the gloves of fielders. Don't expect him to be so lucky in 2011. I would expect a jump in ERA of at least 1.00 to 2.95 for Casilla in 2011.

33 year old lefty Javier Lopez was a complete disaster in 2009, posting a 9.26 ERA. But, he had posted a 2.43 ERA in 2008, and he rebounded in a big way in 2010, posting a 4-2 record, 2.34 ERA, 38 K's, 20 walks, and 5 holds in 77 RA's between the Pirates and Giants, and 57.2 IP. He allowed 50 hits, a 7.8 H/9, and 2 homers, a 0.3 HR/9. Well, he had a .279 BAbip, compared to a .413 BAbip in 2009, and right along with his .280 BAbip in 2008. His IP% was a bit high at 73%, but that was not because of a high line drive rate (15% in '10), but because of a high ground ball rate (1.62 GB/FB, 2.27 GO/AO). Lopez has posted an ERA of 2.70 or lower every season in which he has posted a 1.50 or better GB/FB. He was lucky in terms of HR/FB (3.3% including 0.0% on the Giants) and XBH% (28%, just 8% on the Giants; league average 34%), but with a good ground ball rate he'll be fine. If not, expect an ERA of at least 3.00 if not higher (hopefully not 9.00).

29 year old right-hander Ramon Ramirez posted his 3rd straight season with an ERA under 3.00 in '10 going 1-3 with a 2.99 ERA, 46 K's (a 6.0 K/9), 27 walks (a 3.5 BB/9) 7 holds, and 3 saves in 69 RA's between the Red Sox and Giants and 69.1 IP. He allowed 52 hits, 6.8 per 9, but 7 homers, 0.9 per 9. Considering his high walk and homer rates, and his low strikeout rate, he needed every bit of his .223 BAbip. He did allow a good 17% LD%, but he allowed a 71% IP%, so that's worrisome. His luck will end in 2011, and I'm sure his streak of three straight years with an ERA under 3.00 will end as well.

And finally there is lefty Dan Runzler, who will turn 26 on March 30th. He went 3-0 in '10 with a 3.03 ERA, 37 K's, 20 walks, and 4 holds in 41 RA's and 32.2 IP. He allowed 29 hits and 1 homer, an 8.0 H/9 and a 0.3 HR/9 respectively. He had a .346 BAbip, so you have to expect him to improve in 2011. Not the ball got into play that much- he allowed just a 56% IP% and a 17% LD%. Look for Runzler to improve in 2011 and possibly become the most effective lefty in the Giants' bullpen.

Closer:

Brian Wilson, who will turn 29 on March 16th, had an incredible season as the Giant's closer in 2010, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, just 26 walks, and an impressive 48 saves, tops in the NL in 70 RA's and 74.2 IP. He allowed 62 hits, a 7.5 H/9, and just 3 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. He was just plain outstanding. He also posted a perfect 0.00 ERA in 10 postseason relief appearances. He even was unlucky during the regular season, allowing a .314 BAbip, but he overcame it with by posting just a 60% IP% and a 15% LD%. He did allow just a 3.8 HR/FB, so maybe he'll blow an extra save or two in 2011, but he's still a great closer. Wilson is one of the best closers in baseball today.

Overview: http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=3055834605645541006

The Giants have a pretty good lineup and an outstanding rotation. But, their bullpen is certainly a question mark, besides Wilson at the end. At least a couple of those guys in the bullpen will significantly worse ERA's, and can the Giants overcome that? For the most part, they should be able to. It's hard not to label the Giants as favorites in the NL West.

2010: 92-70, first in NL West, World Series Champions

Prediction: 91-71, 1st in NL West