The Padres were the biggest surprise of the 2010 MLB season, losing the NL West division title to the Giants on the last day of the season. Will they be able to win the division in '11?

Catcher:

Each of the past three seasons, the Padres have given Nick Hundley a shot to win the starting catching job. He failed to unseat Josh Bard, Henry Blanco, and Yorvit Torrealba, and now, at 27 years old, it's make or brake for him. In order to become the starting catcher and keep the job, he's going to have to play much better offensively. His batting averages have improved every year in the majors, from .237 to .238 to .249, but come on! .249 is still a bad batting average. It can be overcome by a great on-base percentage or great power, but Hundley has done neither of those! In three seasons and 727 at-bats, he has 21 homers. That's not terrible power (it comes it 15 homers for a full season), but he has just a .302 career OBP. That's unacceptable. The problem for the Padres is that the last time Hundley had an OBP over .320 at any level for more than 5 games was 2007 at Double-A. That was his best minor league season. He hit .247 with 23 doubles, 20 homers, 72 RBI, and a .324 OBP in 101 games. He better get back to somewhere near that level, or the Padres will need to make a trade with Rob Johnson, who hit .191 for the Mariners in '10, serving as his primary backup. Hundley profiles as a backup catcher. He improved defensively every year in the minors and although he had a terrible 2009 defensively, he rebounded in '10 to post a .994 Fld% and a 29% CS%. (Johnson posted a .990 Fld% and led the AL with 9 passed balls, although he did post a 34% CS%.) The Padres desparately need Hundley to finally show his potential offensively.

First base:

Bye, bye A-Gon. After the big trade of Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox, the Padres now have Brad Hawpe lined up to start at first base. The Padres are replacing Gonzalez, who hit .298 with 31 homers, 101 RBI, and a .393 OBP with Hawpe, who hit .245 with 9 homers, 44 RBI, and a .338 OBP. Hawpe had an off-year in '10, but wow. From 2006 through 2009, Hawpe hit .288 with an average of 25 homers, 93 RBI, and a 384 OBP per season. But, that was at Coors. He's moving to the worst hitters park in baseball, Petco Park. Converted to Petco (using baseball-reference.com's neutralized batting tool), Hawpe would have hit just .265 and averaged 22 homers, 77 RBI, and a .358 OBP per season. In '10 for the 2010 Padres, Hawpe would have hit .237 with 8 homers, 37 RBI, and a .322 OBP. Hawpe, who will turn 32 in June, better get back to his converted numbers from his prime if he's going to be the full-time starter. But, what if the Padres platoon him with the recently acquired Jorge Cantu? Hawpe, a lefty, has hit .288 versus righties compared to .245 versus lefties in his career, although he actually hit better against lefties in '10. Cantu meanwhile, hits about the same against righties and lefties. Cantu had an off-year in '10, hitting just .256 with 11 homers, 56 RBI, and a .304 OBP, although off-years have been the story of his ca/reer. Starting from 2004, let's go through his RBI totals: 17, 117, 62, 13, 95, 100, 56. He'/s due for either another off year or a good season. If he's hitting well, I'm sure he could supplant Hawpe if Hawpe hits like he did in '10 again. Defensively, Hawpe has logged just 9 games at first, posting an 1.000 Fld%, while Cantu has logged 261 and posted a .995 Fld%. I doubt Kyle Blanks will get very much playing time at 1st whether there's a platoon or not. He hit just .157 in 33 games in '10, although he was bothered by an elbow injury. Offensively, the Padres have no idea what they're going to get from Hawpe and Cantu, so first base could be a position of strength for them once again, or it could be a complete train wreck.


Second base:

The Padres have quite a bit more certainty at second base, having signed four-time Gold Glover and two-time All-Star Orlando Hudson as a free agent. Hudson isn't much of a hitter, but his .268 BA and .338 OBP were both above the league average, so he's not that bad either. He has displayed 10 homer power ('04 to '07, although we certainly won't see him hit 10 homers at Petco) and 10 SB speed ('07, '10) in the past. Defensively, he has never posted a fielding percentage below league average his entire career, and not only does he make very few errors, but also he has displayed great range. He's the complete package defensively for a second baseman. He'll be backed up by Everth Cabrera and Eric Patterson. Cabrera managed to be way worse than Hudson offensively (.208 BA, .279 OBP, but 10 stolen bases), and he's a complete disaster defensively (.966 Fld%, and terrible range). Patterson hit just .214 in '10, although he did somehow hit 6 homers and 5 triples and steal 11 bases in '10, and he survived second base with just a slightly below-average .976 Fld% in 14 games, but he owns just a .958 career Fld% at second base. Good thing he also plays the outfield. Hudson was a great signing for the Padres and will be great fit for them, but the depth behind him isn't so great.

Third base:

I still remember when Padres third baseman Chase Headley made his 2008 debut (he played in 8 games in '07) versus the Yankees and hit his first major league home run off of Kyle Farnsworth in the second game of the three-game set. Headley hasn't quite become the star I thought he would after watching that game and looking at his crazy stats his previous two years in the minors (.321, 33 homers, 118 RBI, 131 runs, .417 OBP), but he's a good player. In '10, he hit .264 with 29 doubles, 11 homers, 58 RBI, 77 runs, 17 stolen bases (he had 6 TOTAL stolen bases in the minors), and a .327 OBP in 161 games. Headley's hitting prowess has been sapped by Petco Park. Neutralized, he hit .283 with 32 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 87 runs, 19 stolen bases, and a .348 OBP. That's a little better. I feel like Headley is poised for a breakout season this year at age 27 (he'll turn 27 in May). Defensively, Headley is outstanding. He posted a significantly above-average .966 Fld%, and baseball-reference.com gave him a 1.5 dWAR (defensive wins above replacement; his offensive WAR was 2.2). Headley will be backed up by Cantu. The Padres have a nice situation at third base with Chase Headley.

Shortstop:

Jason Bartlett, acquired this offseason in a trade with the Rays, had one of the biggest disparities from year to year I've ever seen from '09 to '10 without getting injured. Appearing in just 2 less games than in '09, Bartlett hit .66 lower than '09 in '10 (.254), with 10 less homers (4), 19 less RBI (47), 19 less runs (71), 41 less hits (119), 19 less stolen bases (11), and a .65 lower OBP (.324). Wow. And it was his age-30 season! Isn't that when you're supposed to break out? Well, breaking out at 29 isn't that uncommon, but flaming out at 30? What confuses me even more is Bartlett's '08 to '09 disparity, specifically the jump from 1 homer to 14 (he did appear in 9 less games). Fine, he broke out, but 14 times as many homers? 14 homers undoubtedly doesn't jump out you to tell you that a player used PED's, but 14 times as many homers? People thought Jose Bautista was using steroids when his amount of homers jumped 4.15 times from '09 to '10 (13 to 54). Less than a third of Bartlett's jump! Fine, 54 homers and 14 homers are a huge didfference, but come on! Bartlett went from 1 homer to 14 homers, back down to 4 homers. Something's up. Let's try to use stats to reconcile this. Well, first of all, Bartlett's BA went down .66 because his BAbip went down .65 from .364 to .299. OK, that makes sense. But, homers are pretty much unaffected by BAbip: 95% or more of homers are impossible to make a play on (i.e. rob). Well, Bartlett's ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) went up (that's a bad thing) from 0.53 to 0.78. He didn't hit as many fly balls (155 compared to 128 according to b-r), so not as many went out for home runs. That's my only possible explanation. I don't think the Padres were very smart to acquire Bartlett and it was a great move by the Rays to trade him because he won't hit .320, probably not .300 again unless he starts putting up .360 BAbip's again. From '09 to '10, Bartlett improved from a .962 Fld% to a .977 Fld% (both of which are above-average), although that was because he displayed worse range in '10. He's a slightly above-average fielder. He'll be backed up by Everth Cabrera. I really don't think Bartlett will a good player for the Padres in '11.

Left Field:

Ryan Ludwick will be starting for the Padres in left field in 2011. He put up decent overall numbers offensively in 2010, hitting .251 with 27 doubles, 17 homers, 69 RBI, and a .325 OBP in 136 games, but after being traded to the Padres at the trade deadline, he hit just .211 with 6 homers and 26 RBI in 59 games. That has to be somewhat worrisome. Even though his overall numbers were OK, remember that he hit .265 with 22 homers and 97 RBI in '10, and .299 with 37 homers and 119 RBI in '09. A stat that most illustrates his decline is his slugging percentage: he slugged .591 in '08, .447 in '09, and then .418 in '10. But then check out his OPS's in those years: .966 to .775 to .743. Interestingly, although Ludwick was very lucky in '08 to the tune of a .342 BAbip, his BAbip stayed around the same in '09 and '10, .296 and .297. The big difference between '09 and '10 for Ludwick was strikeouts: he struck out 121 times in '10 compared to 106 times in '09. Ludwick just had a little bit off an off-year in '10. The past four years, he has averaged a .272 BA with 22 homers and 83 RBI. I think he should be able to get closer to that in '11. Ludwick will turn 33 in July, but pending an injury, the worst we'd see from him would probably be a repeat of his 2010 stats. Ludwick has been mostly a right fielder defensively in his career, but he does have a .995 Fld% in 108 games in left field including 79 startss and he has displayed good range. Ludwick will be backed up by Chris Denorfia and Aaron Cunningham. Denorfia actually displayed quite a bit of pop as a backup outfielder, hitting .271 with 15 doubles, 9 homers, 36 RBI, 8 stolen bases, and a 335 OBP in 99 games. Considering how well Denorfia plays left field and right field (he has never made an error in 109 games), it sort of makes you wonder why Denorfia has never been a starting outfielder for any team, but you have to realize that Denorfia hasn't hit double-digit home runs at any level since 2005 between Double-A and Triple-A in the Reds organization. Unfortunately for him at age 30, he'll probably never get a shot. He's certainly a fine backup outfielder, though. Cunningham is a bit of a different story. First of all, he will turn 25 in April. Secondly, unlike Denorfia, he was considered a top prospect as soon as entering the 2009 season (he's ranked as the A's 3rd best prospect here). Cunnigham as been traded from the White Sox to the D-backs to the A's to the Padres, but he was solid pretty much the whole way through, averaging a .311 BA, 14 homers, 58 RBI, 18 stolen bases, and a .383 OBP per season. He then followed that up by hitting just .251 with 17 doubles, 7 homers, 45 RBI, just 2 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 80 games in '09 at Triple-A, although he did hit .288 with 12 doubles, a homer, 15 RBI, and a .331 OBP in the majors. You have to wonder if the Padres will pretty much end his development by keeping him in the majors as the 5th outfielder. Defensively, Cunningham is a mystery. In '08, Cunningham posted just a .933 Fld% in 18 games in left field. In '09, he posted just a .913 Fld% in 16 games in right field, although he did play errorless ball in 9 games in left field. Then in '10, he somehow played perfectly in 23 games in right field, 27 in left, and even 2 in center. He has just a .977 career Fld% in the minors in the outfield, so I guess he's not great defensively, but we'll have to see a bigger sample size in the majors. Overall for left field, the Padres have a nice situation with Ludwick being a pretty good player and with good depth behind him.

Centerfield:

Marlins castaway Cameron Maybin is lined up to be the Padres' centerfielder in '10. They're hoping he finally lives up to his potential. Maybin was a top-10 prospect by Baseball America entering the '07 to '09 seasons, but owns just a .246 BA in the majors with just a .313 OBP. Maybin has now played in 168 games, about 1 full season, and hit .246 with 24 doubles, 13 homers, 45 RBI, 5 triples, 135 hits, 93 runs, 19 stolen bases, and a .313 OBP. Those are decent numbers, but he hasn't been able to put it together for a whole season, with his career high in games being 82 in 2010. Turning 24 in April, Maybin is at a career crossroads: he has to prove that he will be an effective big league regular. One stat I omitted from Maybin's career total was his 172 strikeouts. That almost forces him into a comparison with Austin Jackson, the AL's leader with 170 strikeouts. In Jackson's rookie season in 2010, he hit .293 with 34 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 10 triples, 181 hits, 103 runs, 27 stolen bases, and a .345 OBP in 151 games. They're pretty far off, but I want to focus on the difference in BA: Maybin hit just .246 while Jackson hit .293 even though Maybin had just two more strikeouts. Maybe Maybin just isn't a great hitter for average, but there's something going on. Maybin has hit just .138 with 2 strikes in his career, and just .136 with the pitcher ahead. Jackson hit .193 with 2 strikes in '10, and .246 with the pitcher ahead. Jackson's averages, .193 and .246, certainly aren't great averages, but they're a heck of a lot better than .138 and .136. Even though Jackson struck out so many times as well, he wasn't completely helpless with 2 strikes, getting 66 of his 181 hits. Maybin was helpless, getting just 42 hits. Jackson struck out a lot of times, 25.2% of his plate appearances, but Maybin struck out even more, 28.2% of his plate appearances. If Jackson had struck out 28.2% of the time, his BA would have been quite a bit closer to Maybin. The Padres need Maybin to take a major step forward, and that has to begin with better performance with two strikes. Will Maybin even completely fix this problem? I would doubt it. He'll strikeout a lot if he remains a starter. But, if he can get that strikeout percentage down to Jackson's, that would really make him a much better player. I think we'll see some improvement from Maybin in '11. Defensively, Maybin has a .987 career Fld% in centerfield, which is a little bit below average, but he's shown incredible range and he should be fine defensively. He will be backed up by Denorfia and Patterson. 2011 will be a very important season for Maybin, and the Padres better hope he can step up.

Right field:

28 year old Princeton alum Will Venable is going to be the Padres' right fielder again in '11 after a nice performance in '10. He hit .245 with 11 doubles, 13 homers, 51 RBI, 7 triples, 29 stolen bases, and a .324 OBP in 131 games. He posted a .980 Fld% in right field with good range, and a .984 Fld% in the outfield overall. He's a solid player. Venable's big problem is hitting lefties as a lefty hitter. He hit just .154 against them with only 2 home runs. If Venable's struggles against lefties continue, maybe we could see Denorfia make some starts in right against lefties. Denorfia does have a .290 career BA against lefties. Hawpe and Cunningham will also back up Venable. Venable is a pretty good player in right field for the Padres, at least against righties.

The Padres' amazing pitching staff in 2010 nearly carried them to the playoffs. Are they still THAT good?

Starting Rotation:

Mat Latos, at just 22 years old, blossomed into the Padres' ace in 2010. He went 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA and 189 K's compared to just 50 walks in 31 starts and 184.2 IP. He was just plain incredible. His 9.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 150 hits allowed (7.6 H/9) are all amazing. He also allowed just 16 homers, 0.8 per 9 innings. But, was he really dominant, or was he just very lucky? Well, somewhat. He had a .275 BAbip, which was below the league average, but not by that much. Accordingly, his FIP (fielding independent pitching equivlent of ERA) was 3.00, which is still very good. Even if his ERA goes up to 3.00, that's only a 0.08 difference! He did suffer a freak injury while sneezing, but that shouldn't be a problem in the future. At the plate, Latos hit just .111 with no walks, but he did hit 2 doubles and a homer and drive in 3 runs. Mat Latos is a really good pitcher and he'll be the ace of the Padres for years to come.

Southpaw Clayton Richard had a good year for the Padres in '10, going 14-9 with a 3.75 ERA and 153 K's in 33 starts and 201.2 IP. But, he had 78 walks, 3.5 per 9 innings, a less than 2.0 K/BB ratio, and 206 hits allowed, more than a hit per inning. He did allow just 16 homers, 0.7 per 9. The homer rate was great, but considering how many walks and hits Richard allowed, was he lucky to have a 3.75 ERA? Somewhat at least. He had a .315 BAbip, so he was unlucky, but in high leverage situations (high pressure situations such as bases loaded with two outs), he allowed just a .244 BA and .285 BAbip. He was lucky when it mattered most. The good news for Richard is that when you put his BAbip and BAbip in high leverage situations back to neutral, he'll probably have around the same ERA. Hitting-wise, Richard hit .148 with 5 RBI, although he did have just a .220 BAbip. Richard is a good 2nd or 3rd starter.

There are five good candidates for the last 3 spots in the Padres' rotation: Wade LeBlanc, Tim Stauffer, Cory Luebke, ex-Red Aaron Harang, and ex-Yankee Dustin Moseley.

LeBlanc, a 26 year old lefty, was OK as the Padres' 5th starter in '10, going 8-12 with 4.25 ERA and 110 K's compared to 51 walks in 25 starts, a relief appearance, and 146.1 IP. His big problems though, were that he allowed 157 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.7 hits per 9 innings, and 24 homers, a bad ratio of 1.5 per 9. He was a little bit unlucky, allowing a .309 BAbip. LeBlanc was strangely bad against lefties, allowing a .308 BA (although lefties did have a .353 BAbip against him). Despite all the baserunners, LeBlanc was pretty good at limiting the damage, allowing a .237 BAA with RISP and just a .214 BA with 2 outs and RISP. LeBlanc was a pretty great hitting pitcher in '10, hitting .295 with an RBI. LeBlanc is a solid candidate for a starting job.

Tim Stauffer, a right-hander who will turn 29 in June, worked primarily as a reliever in '10 due to an over-abundance of starting pitchers, and he did well, going 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA, 61 K's, and 24 walks in 25 RA's (relief appearances), 7 starts, and 82.2 IP. (He somehow did not record a hold.) He posted a 1.83 ERA as a starter and a 1.87 ERA as a reliever. He gave up just 65 hits, 7.1 per 9, and 3 homers, good for an incredible 0.3 HR/9 ratio. But, he was considerably lucky, allowing a .266 BAbip. But, in 2009, Stauffer allowed a pretty much average .294 BAbip and posted a 3.58 ERA. The Padres would certainly take that. Stauffer hit .176 in '10 with 2 RBI. Stauffer had a great year in '10 due to great luck, but his success in 2009 showed that he's a fine pitcher even with average luck. Stauffer is almost a lock for a spot in the Padres' rotation.

Right-hander Cory Luebke, who will turn 26 in March, made his major league debut in '10, going 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA in 3 starts and a RA. He had a great year in 2010 in the minors between Double-A and Triple-A, going 10-1 with a 2.68 ERA, 88 K's, and 29 walks in 17 starts, 2 RA's, and 114 IP. He allowed just 83 hits, a great ratio of 6.6 per 9, and 8 homers, 0.6 per 9. But, he allowed just a .234 BAbip at Double-A and a .225 BAbip at Triple-A. Going through his minor league seasons, at three levels, Low-A in '08, High-A in '09, and Double-A in '09 he had BAbip's relatively close to .300. Leubke got away with the High BAbip's at Low-A in '08 and High-A in '09, still posting ERA's of 2.34 and 2.40, but he posted a 3.70 ERA at Double-A in '09. If Double-A could beat him when he got unlucky, obviously major league hitters could. Luebke wasn't so lucky when he hit, hitting just .171 with an RBI. I would be scared to have Luebke in my major league rotation right now.

This offseason , the Padres signed former Reds ace Aaron Harang to a one-year contract worth 3.5 million dollars. with an option for 2012. Seems like quite a risk. Harang's last season with an ERA under 4.00 was 2007, and he'll turn 33 in May. In '10, Harang went 6-7 with a 5.32 ERA, 82 K's, and 38 walks in 20 starts, 2 RA's, and 111.2 IP. He allowed 139 hits, a scary ratio of 11.2 per 9 innings, and 16 homers, 1.3 per 9. He would seem to be a pitcher worth staying away from. But, you have to notice his .342 BAbip in '10. That's unlucky. His FIP was 4.95, not great, but not that bad either. How bad can Harang be? He has a 4.33 ERA. The Padres have to hope that Harang will be able at least to get back to that in '11, especially because he'll pitch half his games at Petco Park. Harang hit .135 with 2 RBI in '10. The Padres are hoping that Harang's luck improves, and while he may never be an ace again, they're hoping he can at least be a decent pitcher. Pending a complete collapse, Harang will be in the Padres rotation.

Dustin Moseley made a halfway decent comeback from a variety of injuries in 2010 for the Yankees, going 4-4 with a 4.96 ERA, 33 K's, and 27 walks in 9 starts, 7 RA's, and 65.1 IP. He allowed just above a hit per inning, giving up 66 hits, and he allowed 13 homers, 1.8 per 9. He was pretty bad, and he way lucky enough to have a .261 BAbip. He doesn't seem like a good rotation candiadate to me. Maybe he could fit in the bullpen though. He has a 4.65 career ERA in the bullpen, including a 4.56 ERA and 4 holds in 38 relief appearances in '07, his only year spent primarily in relief. He signed a major league contract, so we should see him in the majors as a reliever. Unless he dominates in spring training, he will not be a starting pitcher for the Padres in '11.

It seems pretty clear to me that Stauffer, LeBlanc, and Harang should be 3-4-5 in the Padres rotation.

Bullpen:

Luke Gregerson, who will turn 27 in May, had a great year in '10 as a workhorse setup man, going 4-7 with a 3.22 ERA, 89 K's, just 18 walks, an astounding 40 holds, and 2 saves in 80 RA's and 78.1 IP. Look at these stats: amazing 10.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9, a decent 0.9 HR/9 ratio, and a ridiculous 5.4 H/9 ratio. Wow. He gave up just a few too many homers (8), but other than that he was great. One slight problem: he was the luckiest man alive with a .217 BAbip. Neutralized, he had a 3.84 ERA. Expect something along those lines in 2011. He'll still appear in a ton of games, though. Mike Adams, who will turn 33 in July, was even better than Gregerson, going 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA, 73 K's, just 23 walks, and 37 holds in 70 RA's and 66.2 IP. His ratios were a 9.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9, and a 6.5 H/9. THe homer ratios were the big difference in ERA between Gregerson and Adams. Was he lucky? Of course, but not as lucky as Gregerson, which is a good thing. He had .271 BAbip against him. Neutralized, he had a 1.94 ERA in '10. Who in the world wouldn't take that? He's a great reliever. And Joe Thatcher may have been better than Adams! Thatcher, a 29 year old lefty, went 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA, 45 K's, just 7 walks, and 12 holds in 65 RA's and 35 IP. He did pitch a lot less innings than Adams and Gregerson. He allowed just 23 hits, 5.9 per 9, and only 1 homer, good for 0.3 HR/9. He also had a .275 BAbip, which is less lucky than Adams. Lefties hit just .197 against him (righties .172). He's a great lefty specialist. Ernesto Frieri, who will turn 26 in July, is another great reliever. He went 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA, 41 K's, 17 walks, and 7 holds in 33 RA's and 31.2 IP. He allowed 18 hits, 5.1 per 9, and 2 homers, 0.6 per 9. He was very lucky, having just a .235 BAbip against him. Neutralized, he had a 2.10 ERA, but who can complain? The Padres' relievers were very lucky, and even if their luck evens out, they'll still have a shutdown bullpen. Might be the best bullpen I've ever seen.

Closer:

Slamming the door for the Padres is Heath Bell. In '10, he went 6-1 with a 1.93 ERA, 86 K's, 28 walks, and 47 saves, an impressive number, in 67 RA's and 70 IP. He allowed 56 hits, 7.2 per 9, and just 1 homer, good for an unbelievable 0.1 HR/9. And do you know the craziest part of any of his stats? He was unlucky in '10, allowing a .329 BAbip. Wow. He's just plain ridiculous.

Overview:

The Padres are a pretty bad hitting team, especially with Adrian Gonzalez gone, but they are very good defensively, and have great pitching. Their rotation may not be quite as great as it was in 2010, but their bullpen is incredible and should carry the team. The pitching will keep this team in contention, maybe even getting them to the postseason as the wild card or even NL West champs if the Giants and Rockies slip up. If this team can win those 2-1 games, they'll go far. But, the lack of quality hitting will cost them.

2010 Record: 90-72

Prediction: 88-74, 3rd in NL West
The Padres will contend if... they have some sort of offense, Stauffer and LeBlanc step up, Harang has a bounce-back year, and if the bullpen remains untouchable.