2011 MLB Preview: Colorado Rockies

The Rockies took a step back in '10, finishing 3rd in the NL West one year after winning the wild card and nearly stealing the division crown from the Dodgers in the final series of the year. Will they be back in the playoffs in 2011?

Catcher:

After Chris Iannetta hit just .228 in '09, the Rockies signed Miguel Olivo in the offseason. The Rockies let Olivo leave as a free agent (he was traded to the Blue Jays for a second before his 2011 option was declined, which I talked about here), giving Iannetta another chance. In a backup role in '10, Ianneta hit just .197 with 6 doubles, 9 homers, 27 RBI, and a .318 OBP in 61 games. He posted just a .985 Fld% and a 22% CS%. Besides the power, Iannetta was pretty terrible, even for a backup catcher. He was really unlucky, having just a .212 BAbip in '10. In '09, he had just a .245 BAbip. Iannetta's last good offensive season was 2008, when he hit .264 with 22 doubles, 18 homers, 65 RBI, and a .390 OBP in 107 games. He had a .311 BAbip that year. If his luck returns to normal, maybe Ianneta could get back to those numbers, at least the .264 BA, and probably the 18 homers as well. 2008 was also the only year where Iannetta got over 400 plate appearances, so maybe with extended time he would be able to sort himself out anyway. Iannetta had a .306 career BA in the minors including a .339 BA at Triple-A. I doubt he'll ever hit .300, but how does he own just a .234 BA in the majors? You have to think that Iannetta is better than he's played in the majors, and maybe in 2011, at age 28 (on April 8th), he finally proves that. His 2010 performance defensively was a bit of an aberration, considering he has a .994 career Fld% at catcher, although he does have a 22% career CS%. Maybe 2010 is when Iannetta finally brakes out.

1st base:

Longtime Rockie Todd Helton isn't the player he used to be. But, with 3 years left on his enormous contract, Helton is untradable and the Rockies will start him at first base for the 13th straight year. In 2010, despite playing his home games at Coors Field, Helton hit just .256 with 18 doubles, 8 homers, 37 RBI, but a .362 OBP in 118 games. Each of those numbers were career-lows for Helton for seasons in which he played in 85 or more games. He had a .307 BAbip, which is still slightly above-average, but the 2nd lowest of his career since 1998. Defensively, Helton posted a slightly below-average .992 Fld% at first base. At age 37, the end will come soon for Helton. If the Rockies could, they would no doubt acquire a first baseman, and Michael Young, who now wants out of Texas, might be that guy. But, for right now, the Rockies are stuck with the declining Helton at first base. Or are they? This offseason they signed Ty Wiggington to a 2-year deal (at age 33) with an option for a third year. Wiggington does play all over the field (he's played everyone except centerfield, pitcher, and catcher in the majors, and even caught a minor league game), but you have to think the Rockies will the 2010 All-Star a significant amount of at-bats (maybe around 400). Could some of those at-bats come at first base? Again, Helton isn't the same player and he's 37 years old, so he'll need quite a few days off. When they do give him days off, Wiggington should be the starter. Helton appeared in just 118 games in '10, and maybe he'll appear in even fewer in 2011. Wiggington will also get at-bats at 3rd base, and sparingly at the other positions. (Wiggington is below-average defensively across the board, but less so at 1st and 3rd.) Another utilityman that will play first base is Jose Lopez. With just 1 year left under team control, the Mariners decided to trade the 27 year old infielder and get a prospect for him, rather than keep him for 2011 and get a probably get a compensation draft pick. (The prospect the Mariners acquired, Chaz Roe, posted a 5.98 ERA at Triple-A in '10 and just one season on his minor league resume with an ERA under 4.00.) Lopez had a good season in '09, hitting .272 with 42 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, but just a .303 OBP. Without even knowing the stats, I'm sure you can guess what I'm about to say. Lopez's low OBP finally caught up to his in 2010, when he did something few others have done: post a .270 OBP in 622 plate appearances (the league average was .319). He hit .239 with 29 doubles, 10 homers and 58 RBI. He was awful, posting a negative WAR. But, he did have just a .254 BAbip, so he isn't quite as bad as he seemed to be in '10. Also, considering his power, Lopez will be a great bench player for the Rockies. And that's just what his offensive contribution will be to the team. He has shown incredible range defensively at both 2nd and 3rd base, although his career Fld% is a bit below-average at 2nd. He's been average at first base and survived at shortstop. He'll be a really valuable bench player for the Rockies, considering his versatility and ability defensively, and his power. Tood Helton career is on a downward spiral from which it will never recover, but his backups at first base, Ty Wiggington and Jose Lopez, are good enough players that the Rockies will be able to keep Helton well rested while still receiving good production at first base.

Second base:

According to kffl.com, Eric Young was supposed to be traded to the Texas Rangers for Michael Young last week, but he failed his physical because of a stress fracture in his right tibia (in his leg) that he suffered in May and the Rangers pulled out of the deal. Let's discuss Eric Young. He's a speedster. Even if his doesn't miss any additional time, you still have to wonder- could his injury affect his speed? He stole 13 bases in 38 games after he came back from the injury. This is from a player who once stole 87 bases in the minors. Without speed, Young is nothing. The 25 year old owns just a .245 BA in his 81 game major league career, with a .318 OBP. He has just 1 homer. His only redeeming quality offensively is his speed: he has 21 stolen bases (10 CS). In the minors, he had 313 stolen bases in 7 seasons. He hit just 27 home runs. Great move by the Rangers not trading for Young. If he has lost a step, he'll be a nobody. Young is also a disaster defensively. He owns just a .963 Fld% at second base including just a .958 Fld% in '10 (league average: .985), and a .917 Fld% in left field (league average: .983) with bad range at both position despite his speed. (He has been perfect in 5 games in centerfield.) If Young lost a step, he won't even be a good bench player! Maybe Wiggington or Lopez will have to be pressed into duty as the starter at second base. The middle infield backup for the Rockies is 26 year old Jonathan Herrera. He hit .284 in '10, and he posted a .984 Fld% with unbelievable range, and he was perfect in less time at shortstop and 3rd base. He's a good backup. You have to be scared about the Rockies' situation at second base, although Wiggington or Lopez could certainly step in to be the starter.

Third base:

Ian Stewart, who will turn 26 on April 5th, is lined up to be the Rockies' starting 3rd baseman once again in '11. In 2010, Stewart hit .256 with 14 doubles, 18 homers, 61 RBI, and a .338 OBP in 121 games. Those are certainly decent stats, if not better. But, you have to remember that Stewart hit 25 homers in 2009. Why did he have the decrease of power in '10? Well, first of all he appeared in just 121 games in '10 compared to 147 in '09 (491 PA to 441), so he had less opportunities to hit home runs. Secondly, Stewart was incredibly lucky in '10. 16.3% of the fly balls he hit in '09 went for homers. In '10, his HR/FB went down to 11.9%. The HR/FB is certainly a big deal, but if he gets enough plate appearances and matures a bit as a hitter, I'm sure he'll hit 25 homers in '11. Stewart is also good defensively, and accordingly he posted a very good .964 Fld% at 3rd base with good range. He'll be backed up by Wiggington and Lopez and possibly 26 year old Chris Nelson, who hit .280 in '10, but still needs work defensively to be a utility infielder. Stewart is a decent player for the Rockies.

Shorstop:

The Rockies locked up Troy Tulowitzki at least until 2020 with an huge extension, 10 years, 163 million dollars (he had a previous extension until 2013, so the deal this offseason was for 2014-2020), and the Rockies even have an option for him in 2021. He's just 26 right now, and he's probably set for his entire career now. He better live up to expectations. Through the end of August in 2010, it didn't seem that Tulo was about to get a huge extension. He was hitting .319, but he had hit just 12 homers and driven in just 55 runs. Well, Tulowitzki changed that in September, hitting .303 with 15 homers and 40 RBI. On the season he hit .315 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, 89 runs, 11 SB, and a .381 OBP in just 122 games because he missed from mid-June to late-July with a broken wrist. He was an All-Star, he finished 5th in the NL MVP voting, and he was a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glover. Speaking of his defense, Tulowitzki posted a .984 Fld% at shortstop (league average: .971), with ridiculous range. He's an incredible player, both offensively and defensively, and will be worth every penny the Rockies pay him. He'll be backed up by Herrera, Wiggington, Lopez, and Nelson if he makes the team. The Rockies have one of the top two shortstops in baseball right now and will be set for many years to come.

Left Field:

After Matt Holliday was traded to the Oakland A's in November of '08, some player in the Rockies organization was going to have to step up to hold down the starting left field job. That player was Seth Smith. In 2007, Smith had a huge season, hitting .317 with 32 doubles, 17 homers, 82 RBI, 6 triples, 7 stolen bases, and a .381 OBP in 129 games at Triple-A, and hitting .625 with a triple in 8 major league at-bats. In '08, with Holliday still in the picture, Smith went back to Triple-A, and hit .323 with 16 doubles, 10 homers, 53 RBI, 11 stolen bases, and a .426 OBP in just 68 games. He forced his way onto the big league roster to stay by July, although he was also promoted for 19 games from late-May to mid-June. On the year in the majors, Smith hit .259 with 7 doubles, 4 homers, 15 RBI, and a .350 OBP in 67 games (123 PA). Those were decent numbers, but not good enough to force him into a starting job. But, in 2009, he was able to seize the starting job by mid July, and had a good season, hitting .293 with 20 doubles, 15 homers, 55 RBI, 4 triples, and a .378 OBP in 133 games (387 PA). In 2010, Smith was the Rockies' primary left fielder again, but he didn't do anywhere as well. He hit just .255 with 19 doubles, 17 homers, 52 RBI, 5 triples, and just a .314 OBP in 133 games again, but this time 398 PA. What was the reason for the difference in BA between '09 and '10 for Smith? Simple. The stat that should be your first guess if you've read all my previews so far, BAbip. In 2009, Smith was lucky enough to have a .324 BAbip. That was completely reversed in '10, when he was very unlucky, posting just a .256 BAbip. He was unlucky in '10 after being unlucky in '09. Let's look at some of his other stats to prove it. 21% of his balls in play were line drives in '09, 20% in '10. That's not enough to explain the .38 difference in BA of its own. His strikeout rate went down from 17.3% to 16.8%, so that's not why he posted a lower BA (his walk rate went down from 11.9% to 8.8%, explaining his lower OBP). He put more balls in play (70% to 66%), and more of his hits went for extra bases (10.3% to 10.1%), and home runs (4.3% to 3.9%) in '10 compared to '09. The big difference for Smith was his bad BAbip. He should be fine. With average luck he'll probably hit .280 in '11. The lower walk rate is much more of a problem. He has a 10.5 BB% in the majors for his career, but he had a 9.0% BB% in the minors (league average 8.7%). Could he be reverting back to his minor league ways? But, Smith had a 10.5 BB% in Triple-A. He just had a bad year, and starting pressing to raise his BA. A stat I neglected to mention before is that Smith swung at 44% of all pitches thrown against him in '10 compared to 40% in '09 (that's a big difference). That allowed him to put more balls in play (but he had a low BAbip which led to his low BA, but with the same BAbip as is '09 he would have raised his BA), but it lowered his walk rate by quite a bit. He changed his approach at the plate in a negative way. If the Rockies' coaches can get him back to his previous approach, he'll be fine. It won't hurt that he's entering his prime at age 28. Defensively, Smith has shown great range his entire career, but has just a league average .986 Fld% in the outfield (.988 in left field). His range is leading to a few errors. Maybe that will change in 2011 as well. Smith will be backed up by Ryan Spilborghs, and possibly Wigginton. (Carlos Gonzalez and Eric Young also play left field.) Spilborghs, 31, had a decent year offensively in '10, playing as a backup and starting in left field for a time, hitting .279 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 39 RBI, and a .360 OBP in 134 games (388 PA). But, Spilborghs needed a .341 BAbip to hit .279, and he has another huge problem: in 2010, he struck, out 83 times, 21.4% of his plate appearances. By means of comparison, that's a higher percentage than Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira posted in '10, two players with a heck of a lot more power than Spilborghs. When his BAbip inevitably goes back down to neutral, Spilborghs will be weighed down by his strikeouts and post a low BA. In 2009, when he had a .288 BAbip, he hit just .241. Expect a BA closer to that from Spilborghs in '11. He isn't even good defensively, considering he owns a .979 career Fld% in the outfield with terrible range. He is actually is a really bad backup outfielder. He certainly won't start as many games as he did in '10 (78). Expect a bounce-back year from Rockies left fielder Seth Smith in '11.



Centerfield:

Speedster Derek Fowler is lined up to be the centerfielder for the Rockies again in '11. In 2010, the 24 year old hit .260 with 20 doubles, 6 homers, 36 RBI, 14 triples (tops in the NL), 13 stolen bases (8 CS), and a .347 OBP in 132 games. What's worrying is that he needed a .328 BAbip to hit .260. That's not good. Even though he was lucky, he was just an average player or worse across the board in 2010. He desperately needs to use his speed well, and while he used it to leg out 14 triples, he stole just 13 bases and was successful just 62% of the time. Why? He didn't go often enough to reverse the trend. On May 20th, Fowler had stolen 6 bases and been caught 4 times. From May 21st until the end of the month, Fowler didn't even attempt a stolen base, and compounding the problem, he was hitting just .216. He was then sent down to Triple-A, where he hit .340 in 27 games, but stole just one base (0 CS). After returning to the majors, Fowler hit .272, but he stole just 7 bases and was caught 4 times, although he did hit 11 of his 14 triples. Fowler didn't attempt to steal often enough. In 2010, he had 172 opportunities to steal a base (i.e. he was on 1st or 2nd base with an empty base in front of him), and he attempted to steal just 22 times, or 12.8%. In 2009, when he stole 27 bases and was caught 10 times, he went 18.9% of the time. Fowler has to be more aggressive on the bases. Defensively, Fowler posted a .996 Fld% in '10, which was 3rd in the NL, but despite his speed, he showed poor range. He'll be backed up by Spilborghs. The Rockies need a resurgence from Dexter Fowler on the basepaths.

Right field:

Carlos Gonzalez, another player who received a huge extension from the Rockies (7 years, 80 million dollars), went above and beyond all expectations in '10, finishing 3rd in the NL MVP voting and winning a Silver Slugger. Gonzalez, who turned 25 in October, hit .336 in '10, enough to win the batting title, with 34 doubles, 34 homers, 117 RBI, 9 triples, 111 runs, 197 hits (also tops in the NL), 26 stolen bases (8 CS), and a .376 OBP in 145 games. He also led the NL with 351 total bases. Was Gonzalez lucky in '10? Of course. He had a crazy .384 BAbip. Was he the luckiest man in the world? Actually, no. I'm sure some player had a higher BAbip in over 400 at-bats (and I'll probably cover him in one of the team previews), but what I mean is that Gonzalez earned his high BAbip. 27% of his balls in play were line drives, compared to the league average of 19%, and obviously liine drives are less likely to be fielded for an out. Neutralized, even in Coors Field, Gonzalez hit .318, so he was lucky, but not as lucky as it would seem from his .384 BAbip. Gonzalez also won a Gold Glove for his defensive work in '10. He posted a .996 Fld% in the outfield including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 40 games in right field with 8 outfield assists, although he didn't show great range (but he did in '08 and '09, so maybe his poor range was just a fluke). Gonzalez is an outstanding five-tool player. He'll also be backed up by Spilborghs. The Rockies have another perennial MVP candidate in Carlos Gonzalez.

Starting rotation:

Headlining the Rockies' rotation is ace Ubaldo Jimenez. The 27 year old right-hander had the best first half of any pitcher in baseball in '10, going 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA, 113 K's, and just 46 walks in 18 starts and 127 IP. He pitched 3 complete games, including a no-hitter, and he allowed just 87 hits and 6 homers, a great 6.2 H/9 and a very good 0.4 HR/9. People were talking about whether Jimenez could become the first pitcher since Denny McLain in 1968 to win 30 games in a season. Jimenez was unable to even 20 games, going just 4-7 with a 3.80 ERA in the second half, although he did have 101 K's compared to 46 walks, and allowed 77 hits and 4 homers, a 7.3 H/9 and a 0.3 HR/9 in 15 starts and 104.2 IP. The difference for Jimenez was his control: he posted a 4.4 BB/9 in the second half compared ti a 3.3 BB/9 in the first half. Neither of those numbers are that great, but Jimenez was able to overcome it in the first half, but his walk rate reached a tipping point in the second half and he struggled. Another thing that led to Jimenez's decline in the second half was his BAbip: in the first half he was lucky enough to have a .252 BAbip, but when his BAbip went back to neutral at .303, he looked a lot more like a third starter than an ace. Still, you can't complain about his overall numbers. He went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA, 214 K's compared to 94 walks, 4 complete games, and 2 shutouts (one no-hitter) in 31 starts and 221.2 IP. He allowed 64 hits, a 6.7 H/9, and 10 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. He led the NL in win-loss percentage (.704) in he finished 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting. I hate to say it, but Jimenez clearly isn't as a good as his 2010 numbers. Unless he drastically improves his control, I doubt he will ever post an ERA under 3.00 again without being extremely lucky again. In 2008, when he had a neutral .303 BAbip, Jimenez went 12-12 with a 3.99 ERA. Jimenez is better that- he has improved his walk rate and strikeout rate since then. In '09, when he had a .289 BAbip, Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.57 ERA. Jimenez is better than that also- he has improved his walk rate and strikeout rate since then as well. So, what can we expect from Jimenez in '10? I would say something like a 3.15 ERA, which is still very good, but not great. Still, posting a 3.15 ERA is still really good. With the bat, Jimenez is terrible, considering he hit just .104 with 4 RBI and only 4 sac bunts (-0.6 WAR). Ubaldo Jimenez may never repeat his 2010 performance, but he's still a solid ace for the Rockies.

It may seem very strange to you that I'm placing 23 year old right-hander Jhoulys Chacin in the number two spot in the Rockies rotation ahead of several more experienced starters, but based an ERA, I really don't have a choice. Jhoulys (pronounced yo-LEES) Chacin had a very good rookie season, going 9-11 with a 3.28 ERA, and 138 K's compared to 61 walks in 21 starts, 7 RA's, and 137.1 IP. He allowed 114 hits, a 7.5 H/9, and 10 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. Maybe in another year, he would have gotten some Rookie of the Year situation, but the field was pretty stacked this year (scroll down to "NL Rookie of the Year Voting"). Chacin finished second in the Rockies' rotation in ERA behind Jimenez, so that's an accomplishment. Is he the real deal? Yes. Well, first of all, Chacin actually had a 2.98 ERA in 21 starts, so he was even better than he seemed (he had a 6.75 ERA in relief). Secondly, he allowed a .290 BAbip, which is more or less neutral. Chacin is the real deal. Maybe the Rockies have another player to extend. Different story with the bat for Chacin, considering he hit just .075 with 1 RBI and 4 sac bunts, but then again, he might have been messed up by 6 relief appearances in July. Chacin will pair with Jimenez at the top of the Rockies' rotation for years to come.

Despite just a 5.02 career ERA and a 4.31 ERA in '09 and '10, his best two years, the Rockies resigned 30 year old left-hander Jorge de la Rosa to a 2-year 19.5 million dollar contract with an 11 million dollar player option for 2013 (and if he accepts that, the Rockies own an 11 million dollar team option for him in 2014). De la Rosa also appeared in just 20 games in 2010 because of a torn left flexor band in his left middle finger on his pitching hand. When he was healthy, de la Rosa wasn't all that effective either, going 8-7 with a 4.22 ERA and 113 K's compared to 55 walks in 20 starts and 121.2 IP. He allowed 115 hits for a 7.8 H/9 ratio, but despite all the missed time, he allowed 15 home runs for a 1.1 HR/9. He did this all while having a .280 BAbip. That's not good. But, considering he pitches his home games in Coors, de la Rosa is a pretty good pitcher. He had a 3.78 neutralized ERA, so he can't be that bad. If de la Rosa suddenly has his first season with an ERA under 4.00 in '11, that would be great, but you have to realize that when de la Rosa posted a 4.38 ERA in '09, the Rockies went 20-12 in his starts (he was 16-9). Jorge de la Rosa is a decent pitcher for the Rockies, but only because you consider his environment. de la Rosa hit a career-high .171 in '10 with 4 RBI and 3 sac bunts. Jorge de la Rosa is just good enough to pitch to a winning record for the Rockies.

From 2002 to 2009, Aaron Cook, who recently turned 32, was a solid pitcher for the Rockies from 2002-2009, posting a 4.33 ERA (like I said for de la Rosa, that's not a great ERA, but it's good enough for Coors). In 2010, that changed. Cook went just 6-8 in '10 with a 5.08 ERA, 62K's, and 52 walks in 23 starts and 127.2 IP. He allowed 147 hits, more than a hit per inning at 10.4 per 9, although he did allow just 11 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. What's scary if you're not familiar with Cook is that he allowed a 10.4 H/9 despite just a .309 BAbip. But, you have to realize that he has a 10.3 career H/9 despite just a .307 BAbip. Almost every year, Cook's is able to get around all the hits he allows. Cook is successful because of how many ground balls he gives up. He owns a 1.37 ground ball to fly ball ratio for his career, and a 2.22 ground out to air out ratio. He was actually better in both of his categories in '10, allowing a 1.42 ground ball to fly ball ratio and a 2.29 ground out to air out ratio. The league averages for those stats are 0.79 and 1.07 respectively. So, Cook was pretty much pitching to contact the way he wants to pitch to contact, but the main problem for him was he walk rate. He owns just a 3.8 career K/9, which is minuscule, and his 4.4 K/9 in '10 actually tied his career-high. But, the problem for Cook in '10 was that he had a 3.7 BB/9, which isn't good in general, and which is obviously very bad for a pitcher was a low strikeout rate. His career BB/9 is 2.7, and that's where he needs to be. For his career, Cook has just a 1.37 K/BB ratio. The one season he had to 2 to 1 ratio was 2008, his lone All-Star appearance and his best season overall (16-9, 3.96). Even if he can't back to a 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio, Cook has to at least lower his walk rate. Cook had an interesting problem with 3-0 counts. Umpires are known to be most lenient with their strike zone on 3-0 counts, yet on 3-0 counts, Cook threw a strike just 51% of the time. For his career Cook has thrown a strike on 3-0 58% of the time, and 61% the past three seasons. Cook just has to challenge hitters a little bit more on 3-0 counts. Obviously, there are situations when you can't, but sometimes you might as well throw a decent pitch, and maybe the batter will miss-hit it. I'm sure Cook will be better on 3-0 counts in '11 and thus improve his walk rate. It's just a strange thing to suddenly decline in. If Cook can improve his walk rate, he'll get back to his 4.33 career ERA, and maybe a bit better. Cook will be a better pitcher in '11 for the Rockies.

There are three candidates for the final spot in the Rockies' rotation: the frontrunner, Jason Hammel, Felipe Paulino, and Esmil Rogers. Hammel came over to the Rockies in a trade in April of 2009, and the 28 year old right-hander had a good year for the Rockies, going 10-8 with a 4.33 ERA, 133 K's, and just 42 walks in 30 starts, 4 RA's, and 176.2 IP. His problems were that he allowed 203 hits, over a hit per inning at 10.3 per 9, and 17 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. In '10, allowing over a hit per inning again hurt him, and although he went 10-9, he posted a 4.81 ERA, striking out 141 and walking 47 in 30 starts and 177.2 IP. He allowed 201 hits, actually slightly less than '09 at 10.2 per 9, and 18 homers for the same 0.9 HR/9. Why did Hammel post an ERA nearly a half-run higher in '10 than in '09 considering he had such similar stats otherwise? It wasn't BAbip: no matter what I'm about to conclude, Hammel is due for a better year in '11 because he has allowed BAbip's of .332 and .335 the past 2 years. His line drive percentage remained exactly the same (22%), and so did his ground ball to fly ball ratio (0.87). His IP% (in-play percentage) actually went down from 73% to 71% and his XBH% (extra base hit percentage) went down from 8.4% to 7.1%. The only negative increases for Hammel were his walk rate (2.1 BB/9 to 2.4) and his HR/FB (percentage of fly balls allowed that went for homers), which increased from 6.2% to 6.6%. So, there goes all the other stats I've ever mentioned. His WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) increased from 1.387 to 1.396, but that was because his walk rate increased. So, why was Hammel worse in '10 than '09? Quality start percentage (QS%). Hammel's QS% decreased from 50% to 47%. He just wasn't as consistent (if 50% counts as consistent at all). And why was that? The Rockies didn't give him as much run support (4.5 R/GS compared to 5.1 in '09). In 2009, Hammel allowed a .282 BA when the Rockies were ahead compared to .260 when the team was behind. He helped the Rockies get back into games. In '10, he allowed a .299 BA when ahead and .309 when behind, so it was harder for the Rockies to come back. And by the way, those declines from '09 to '10 are pure luck. Hammel's BAbip when ahead went up from .333 to .340 when ahead from '09 to '10, which isn't a huge increase, but his BAbip when behind shot up from .260 to .377, a ridiculous .117 increase (the difference between a .300 hitter and a .183 hitter). He should be fine in '10. He just got unlucky overall with his BAbip in both '09 and '10, and especially when he was behind in '10. You have to think that Hammel, if he has a league average .300 BAbip, will be able to at least get back to his 4.33 ERA, and I wouldn't be completely shocked if he snuck into the 3.00's at 3.99 or something. Hammel hit just .105 with 2 RBI, although he did have 5 sac bunts. You have to think Hammel will be the 5th starter for the Rockies once again in 2011, and he should definitely improve on his 2010 numbers.

Might as well go through Paulino and Rogers as well, even though they're undoubtedly underdogs for the 5th starter job. Paulino is a 27 year old right-hander, but even though he has a leg up on Hammel in terms of age, you can't like his 2010 numbers (or his 2009 numbers for that matter). In 2010, he went just 1-9 for the Astros, with a 5.11 ERA, 83 K's, and 46 walks in 15 starts, 4 RA's, and 91.2 IP. He allowed 95 hits, over a hit per inning, although he did allow just 4 home runs, 0.4 per 9. He doesn't seem like the kind of player you would trade your starting second baseman (Clint Barmes) for. But, the Rockies are looking past Paulino's 'regular' stats. He allowed a .340 BAbip in '10, so he was obviously very unlucky, and it also put him into more pressure situations. Maybe he could post an ERA in the 4.30 range like seemingly every other Rockies pitcher and get a few wins. Also, what was crazy in '10 was that Paulino allowed almost no hard contact. Just 14% of the balls in play against him were line drives (MLB average: 19%). Paulino will probably allow a few more homers in '10 considering he allowed just a 2.9% HR/FB (MLB average 7.5%), but if his BAbip returns to neutral, he'll still be a pretty decent pitcher. You have to think that even if Paulino doesn't win a starting job, the Rockies will use him on the major league roster in some capacity. Again, why else would they trade their starting second baseman? If he doesn't beat out Hammel for the 5th starter job, I'm sure he'll stick as a long reliever, although his if his brief relieving history (12.39 ERA in 13 appearances) is any indication, the Rockies have a problem. Paulino was actually a pretty good hitter in '10, hitting .292 with 3 sac bunts, although he did not drive in any runs. Paulino may not end up being the 5th starter for the Rockies, but you have to think he'll be on the major league roster.

If Paulino is an underdog for the 5th starter job, 25 year old Esmil Rogers is a 30-1 long-shot. After appearing in 1 game in 2009, Rogers spent extended time in the majors for the first time in his career, and it wasn't pretty. Rogers went 2-3 with a 6.13 ERA, 66 K's, 26 walks, and 2 holds in 8 starts, 20 RA's, and 72 IP. His main problem was that he allowed 94 hits, a really bad ratio of 11.8 per 9 inning, although he did allow just 5 homers, good for a 0.6 HR/9. Even though he had a 2.0 K/BB and he didn't allow too many homers, you just can't give up that many hits. But, why did he give up so many hits? He was about the unluckiest man in the world, giving up a .390 BAbip. But, part of the reason that Rogers had such a high BAbip was because 25% of the balls put into play against him were line drives, compared to the MLB average of 19%. Line drives are less likely to be caught, and since he allowed more line drives, he had more balls hit against him that were less likely to be caught, leading to his higher BAbip. Also, he had a 4.59 ERA and a 9.6 H/9 in the minors even though he had a .283 BAbip in the minors. (That's not including sac flies against him- I can't find that stat. To put this in perspective, if you took away sac flies from Rogers 2010 BAbip, he would have had an even worse .401 BAbip, so let's say he had a .293 BAbip in the minors. If someone knows where to find sac flies against a pitcher in the minors, please comment.) He also had a 5.75 ERA at Triple-A in '10. It seems pretty clear that Rogers needs more time in the minors. I doubt Rogers will make the Rockies out of spring training, although we may see him in the majors later in the year.

Bullpen:

Matt Belisle had a big year as a middle reliever for the Rockies in '11, going 7-5 with a 2.93 ERA, 91 K's, just 16 walks, 21 holds, and 1 save in 76 RA's and 92 IP. The 30 year old right-hander allowed 84 hits, an 8.2 H/9, and 7 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. The homers were his one problem; he allowed a .314 BAbip, so his H/9 will go down even more when his BAbip goes back down to neutral. He's a good reliever, although you have to worry a bit about the homers. Rafael Betancourt, who will turn 36 in April, went 5-1 for the Rockies in '10 with a 3.61 ERA, 89 K's, just 8 walks (good for an 11.13 K/BB that was better than Cliff Lee), 23 holds, and 1 save in 72 RA's in 62.1 IP. He allowed just 52 hits, 7.5 per 9, but 9 homers, which amounted to a terrible 1.3 HR/9. Betancourt was a bit unlucky in terms of HR/FB (9.9%), but he also allowed a 24% LD%, and some of those line drives were going to be home runs. If Betancourt can keep the homers down, he will be a good reliever (when he had a 0.4 HR/9 in 32 RA's for Colorado in '09, he had a great 1.73 ERA). Matt Lindstrom, a 31 year old reliever acquired from the Astros for a couple of prospects this offseason, had a decent year splitting the closer duties with Brandon Lyon, going 2-5 with a 4.39 ERA, 43 K's, 20 walks, 4 holds, and 23 saves (6 blown saves) in 58 RA's and 53.1 IP. He allowed 68 hits, a terrible ratio of 11.5 per 9, and 5 homers, a 0.8 HR/9. He actually had a 2.48 ERA on July 30th before collapsing to the tune of a 10.13 ERA the rest of the year, although he did allow a .385 ERA. Overall on the year, he had a crazy .362 BAbip, which was actually not so crazy when you consider he has a .340 career BAbip. But, maybe he will finally get lucky in '11 and allow a .300 BAbip and allow a 9.0 H/9 or better. He did manage an 8.9 H/9 from '07 to '08, so it's not that far-fetched. He also had a 3.11 ERA for '07 to '08, so maybe the Rockies could get that, especially because Lindstrom won't be closing. I would expect a significantly better ERA from Lindstrom in '11, maybe around 3.50. 26 year old left-hander Matt Reynolds had a nice big league debut in '10, going 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA, 17 K's, just 5 walks, and 2 holds in 21 RA's and 18 IP. He allowed just 10 hits, a 5.0 H/9, but 2 homers, 1.0 per 9. It was a very small sample size, and you also have to realize that Reynolds was ridiculously lucky, allowing just a .186 BAbip, although he did allow just a 61% IP% (MLB average 69%). Maybe Reynolds isn't really quite as good as he was in '10, but considering how low his IP% was, I would think he could still post an ERA in the 2.90 range. He also had a 2.62 ERA in 50 RA's at Triple-A in '10 despite a BAbip above .300 (I don't exactly what it is again because I don't know how many sac flies he allowed), so that might be his upside. Reynolds is a good lefty reliever for the Rockies. There are 4 other relievers competing for the final spot or the final two spots in the Rockies' bullpen: lefty Franklin Morales and righties Edgmer Escalona and Matt Daley. Morales is entering his third major league season at age 25. Through June 13th, Morales had a 3.21 ERA, but just like Lindstrom, he collapsed to end the year, posting a 9.20 ERA, although when he was sent down to the minors, he posted a 2.67 ERA in 24 RA's. On the year in the majors, Morales went 0-4 with a 6.28 ERA, 27 K's, 24 walks (certainly way too many), and 1 hold in 35 RA's and 28.2 IP. He allowed 28 hits, pretty much a hit per inning (8.8 H/9), but 5 homers, a really bad 1.6 HR/9 ratio. Even though Morales had a 6.28 ERA, you would think that at age 25, he deserves another chance, right? He just needs to work on his control! But, you could argue back that Reynolds has passed Morales and he'll be the lefty in the bullpen. I would compromise if Morales doesn't impress the Rockies in spring training: I would start Morales in the minors, let him straighten himself out, and then bring him up to the majors. I don't think Morales will start 2011 at the big league level. Escalona, 24, posted a 1.50 ERA in his 5-game big league debut in '10, but it was a different story for him in the minors. He went 3-5 with a 6.00 ERA, 74 K's, 32 walks, and 1 save (I can't find his minor league hold count) in 57 RA's and 69 IP. He allowed 66 hits, 8.6 per 9, but an unbelievable count of 17 home runs as a reliever, which amounted to a 2.2 HR/9 that was so terrible that even half of it(a 1.1 HR/9) would still be really bad for a reliever. It's 50-50 that Escalona even appears in 1 major league game in all of 2011 (well, as long as they don't just look at his major league stats). Daley appears to be the final member of the bullpen by default. Through June 10th, 2010, Daley had a 3.74 ERA. But, after that game, Daley went on the 60-day DL with a shoulder injury that sidelined him until September 10th. Overall in '10, Daley went 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA, 18 K's, 10 walks, and 7 holds in 28 RA's and 23.1 IP. He allowed 27 hits, over a hit per inning at 10.4 per 9, and 2 homers, 0.8 per 9. He had a .342 BAbip against him, so he was certainly unlucky, but he wasn't unlucky in any other regard. Maybe he could post an ERA in the 3.90 range or better with a .300 BAbip. But interestingly, when he had a .289 BAbip in 57 RA's in 2009, he had the same 4.24 ERA. But, the difference that year was that he had a 1.1 HR/9 that season. If he puts it all in '10, I am sure he could post an ERA in the 3.90 range. He's a decent reliever. The Rockies have a pretty good bullpen.

Bullpen:

Huston Street missed until late June in 2010 with a shoulder injury, but after that, the 2005 AL Rookie of the Year did pretty well, going 4-4 with a 3.61 ERA, 45 K's, just 11 walks, and 20 saves in 44 RA's and 47.1 IP. At age 27, Street now has a 3.00 career ERA, and 149 career saves, which are good numbers, but he has to manage to stay healthy. He has never saved 40 games, and he's only saved 35 games twice (2006 and 2009). Will 2011 finally be the season where Street saves 40 games? Street's response to his terrible August in 2010 is certainly encouraging. Through July 31st of 2010, Street had a 2.65 ERA, 6 saves, and just 1 blown save in 16 RA's. But then, he had an awful August. He posted just a 6.06 ERA, saving 7 games and blowing 3 in 16 games. But, he responded in a big way in September. He appeared in 12 games, posting a 1.93 ERA, saving 7 games and blowing just 1. Street overcame adversity, and was better because of it. Will he post a 1.93 ERA again in 2011 and save 40 games? After watching his September, maybe. (I would say a 2.70 ERA and exactly 40 saves). Street, when healthy, is a good closer for the Rockies. He better stay healthy and live up to his potential in 2011.

Overview:

The Rockies have a very good offense, headlined by perennial MVP candidates Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. They're decent defensively. The rotation isn't great, but it's good enough to keep the offense in games, and more often than not, the offense will come through. The bullpen is good enough. The Rockies will contend, and even if they can't not off the defending champion Giants for the NL West crown, they will certainly contend for the wild card.

2010 record: 83-79

Prediction: 90-72, 2nd in NL West

After all my NL previews, I'll pick my wild card.