2011 MLB Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers were a huge disappointment in 2010, finishing under .500 and going through the Manny and McCourt fiascoes. Will they get back to contending in 2011?

Catcher: After non-tendering Russell Martin, the Dodgers resigned Rod Barajas to be their starting catcher (they acquired him off waivers in late August of 2010). In 2010 between the Mets and Dodgers, Barajas hit .240 with 14 doubles, 17 homers, 47 RBI, and a .284 OBP in 99 games, missing time with an oblique injury. The power numbers were OK, but his OBP was .043 lower than the league average. That's unacceptable. But, Barajas did have just a .236 BAbip, and accordingly, he hit .252 with a .299 OBP neutralized, which is a bit better. Defensively, Barajas posted a .996 Fld% with just 3 passed balls, but he posted just a 15% CS%. Although being a Yankee fan, I am biased, but Martin is definitely a better player than Barajas both offensively and defensively when healthy, particularly in OBP (.365 career OBP and .347 in '10) and CS% (31% for his career and 39% in '10). Martin will be backed up by Dioner Navarro, who hit just .194 in '10 and posted just a .986 Fld%, but he allowed no passed balls and posted a 39% CS%. If all else fails, the Dodgers could call up A.J. Ellis, who turns 30 in April. He has literally no power (career high in homers in the minors was 8 in '07), but he did hit .278 with 16 RBI and a .363 OBP in '10, and post a .996 Fld%, just 1 passed ball, and a 28% CS% in 44 games. I don't really trust Rod Barajas offensively or defensively for the Dodgers.

First base:

James Loney has never been a prototypical first baseman for the Dodgers. His career high in homers in the major leagues was 15 in 96 games in '07, especially strange because he's appeared in 158 or more games each of the past 3 seasons. Loney is much more of a gap-hitter. In '10, he hit .267 with 41 doubles (5th in the NL), just 10 homers, 88 RBI, 10 SB, and a .329 OBP in 161 games. Defensively, Loney is outstanding. He posted a .997 Fld% at first base in '10 with outstanding range. Loney will turn 27 in May. Overall, Loney is a pretty good first baseman, just not what you'd expect. He'll be backed up by John Lindsey, and Jay Gibbons, who we'll talk about as a right fielder. Lindsey is a career minor leaguer who finally made his big league debut in '10 at age 33 after 16 seasons in the minors, although he hit just .083. He was ridiculous in the minors in '10, hitting .353 at Triple-A with 41 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, and a .400 OBP in 107 games. He's pretty much a disaster defensively, considering he posted just a .989 Fld% at first base in the minors in '10 (league average .993) and has just a .987 career Fld% at the position in the minors. The Dodgers don't get typical production out of their first baseman, Loney, but he's still a good player.

Second base:
The Dodgers were able to lure Juan Uribe away from the divison-rival and defending champion Giants by giving him a 3 year deal to him at age 30. Uribe is an enigma of a hitter. In '10, he hit 24 homers and drove in 85 runs. Sounds good, right? Well, he hit .248 with just a .310 OBP. For his career, he has hit .256 with 15 homers and 60 RBI per season, but just a .300 OBP. Accordingly, Uribe has never been an All-Star in 10 major league seasons. He's an OK player, but his OBP really holds him down. He managed a lower OBP than Mark Reynolds in 2010 (.320), and Reynolds hit just .198! He's a decent player, and he'll never be anything more. Defensively, he managed above-average fielding percentages at shortstop (.984), third base (.957), and second base (1.000), although he did have below average range at short. Uribe has a great .990 career Fld% at second for his career. Uribe will be backed up by the Dodgers' utility infielder, Jamey Carroll. Carroll, for a utilityman, is a surprisingly good hitter. He hit .291 in '10 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 23 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and even a .379 OBP in 133 games. If he had any power, he'd be a great player. In 2006 for the Rockies, Carroll hit .300 with 23 doubles, 5 homers, 36 RBI, 5 triples, 84 runs, 10 SB, and a .377 OBP in 136 games. Carroll's real problem was that he couldn't make the majors until he was 28 years old, spending 7 full seasons in the minors. He'll be 37 on February 18th. Anyway, Carroll has a ridiculous .992 career Fld% at second base, including an NL leading .995 Fld% in that 2006 season. In 158 career games at shortstop, he has an unbelievable .989 career Fld% (Derek Jeter's .989 Fld% in '10 led the AL), although he is below average at third base (.945 Fld%) and left field (.971 Fld%). He's still a great utility player. Uribe is just a decent player because of his low OBP, so the Dodgers have just a decent situation at second base, although Carroll is a great backup.

Third Base:


There have been off-years, then there has been Casey Blake's 2010. It doesn't sound so bad- he hit .248 with 28 doubles, 17 homers, 64 RBI, 56 runs, and a .320 OBP in 146 games. He had a .407 slugging percentage. Baseball-Reference gave him a 1.6 offensive WAR. Compare to that to his '09 season. That year, he hit .280 with 25 doubles, 18 homers, 79 RBI, 84 runs, a .363 OBP, and a .468 slugging percentage in 139 games. Look at the difference in OPS: .727 in '10 versus .832 in '09. The .727 was below-average while the .832 was significantly above-average. Wow. Blake's BAbip did decrease from .327 to .305, but that wasn't the real reason that his numbers went down so much. In 2009, Blake struck out 116 times, 20.5% of his plate appearances. In 2010, he struck out 138 times, 24.2% of his plate appearances. That's a big difference. In addition, his walk rate decreased from 11.2% to 8.4%. The reason for the increase in strikeout rate and decrease in walk rate in '10 was that Blake hit just .194 whenever he was behind in the count, compared to .259 in '09. Will Blake rebound in '10? Well, first of all he's 37 years old. That's isn't a very common age for a bounce-back year. He wasn't unlucky, so it's not like his bound for a bounce-back year anyway. I doubt he'll ever get back to his '09 numbers. So, what should we expect from him? Well, Baseball-Reference has a list of 'Comparable Batters through 36' for Blake. Let's go through the players on the list. Melvin Mora has fallen off a cliff the past 2 seasons, hitting a combined 15 homers after mashing 23 in his age 36 season. He is still around, though. Hector Lopez was done after a bad age 36 season, hitting just .214. So were Aaron Boone, Charlie Hayes, Glenallen Hill, and Gary Ward. Bill Robinson had one more decent season. Kevin Millar lasted one more season. Jim Hickman was a backup in his final season at age 37. Jay Payton appeared in 20 games in '10 at age 37 (hitting .343) and he's currently a free agent. Blake is signed for at least one more year (there's an team option with a buyout for 2012), so I'm guessing he'll turn out like Mora has. He'll be a shadow of his former self. If he completely collapses, the Dodgers could slide Uribe to third and put in Carroll at second. But, what about the Dodgers' 3rd base prospects in the minors? With 2011 possibly being Blake's last year, it's hard not to mention some prospects that could step in for him in 2011 if necessary. The Dodgers have three 3rd base prospects who profile as at least decent players: Russ Mitchell, Pedro Baez, and Jorky Infante. Martin had a big league cup of coffee in '10, hitting .143 with a .140 OBP (he was thrown out trying to stretch, which raises your BA, but lowers your OBP). But, his first two major league hits were homers, and he drove in 4 runs. Defensively, he posted just a .895 Fld% at 3rd base (2 errors in 19 chances, and a .958 Fld% at 3 games first base, although he was perfect in left field in 3 games. You can throw out everything I just said because it's such a small sample size. Let's talk about Martin's stats at Triple-A in '10. He hit .315 with 38 doubles, 23 homers, 87 RBI, 97 runs, and a .363 OBP in 127 games. Defensively, he posted a .958 Fld% at third base, which would have been above-average in the 2010 NL. Those are obviously great stats, and Martin wasn't even on Baseball America's top 30 prospects list for the Dodgers in '10! He had a breakthrough season, and he could be a late bloomer at age 25 (26 on February 15th). Mitchell is a great feel-good story because he's a late bloomer and also because he won a sportsmanship award at the Arizona Fall League in '09. The end is near for Casey Blake, according to everything I said above. Unless Blake somehow bounces back in 2011, the Dodgers will need a new 3rd baseman, and sooner rather than later. If Blake collapses in mid-season, the Dodgers should call up Mitchell, as long as he's handling Triple-A again. Who knows? Maybe this kid will end up being something special. Maybe 2010 was the turning point for him. Why not try him out? (Gut feeling: Mitchell is the starting 3rd baseman for the Dodgers by mid-July and does pretty well.) Baez is a completely different story. Baez, who will turn 23 in March, was the only 3rd baseman ranked up the top 30 prospects for the Dodgers entering the 2010 season. And, while Mitchell's stock has shot up, his has been in free-fall. Through late July of '09, Baez was having a great season, hitting .286 with 17 doubles, 10 homers, 61 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and a .326 OBP in 79 games at High-A. He even represented the Dodgers in the Futures Game. But, then and there, he suffered at knee injury that caused him the miss the rest of the season. Still, the Dodgers had high hopes for Baez in '10. He didn't come through. The Dodgers sent Baez back to High-A, but he struggled, hitting just .259 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 42 RBI, 4 stolen bases, and just a .306 OBP in 75 games. (He did hit .385 in a 7-game stint at Double-A.) Even worse, Baez's posted just a .903 Fld% at third base, which is bad enough, but his Fld% has gone down every year in the minors, from .931 in '07 to .913 to '08, to .910 in '09 to the aforementioned .903 in '10. Not what you'd expect from a top-15 prospect. Baez is in limbo, and he better get back on track in the minors in 2011 if he ever wants to make the Dodgers in any capacity. Infante is all the way down at rookie ball so we won't be seeing him any time soon. He hit .270 for the Dodgers' Dominican League team, with 2 doubles, 2 homers, 14 RBI, 13 SB, and a .369 OBP in 57 games. He even posted a .913 Fld% at 3rd. Infante may end up being the best of these three, but if so, it will be in at least 3 years. He'll turn 20 on February 24th. The Dodgers appear to have a problem with their starting 3rd baseman, Casey Blake, in his decline phase, but help may be on the way in the form of late-blooming prospect Russ Mitchell.

Shortstop:

Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal was held to under 100 games in '10 because of hamstring and back injuries. Considering that, he had a great year. He hit .300 with 23 doubles, 8 homers, 43 RBI, 7 triples, 66 runs, 22 stolen bases, and a .366 OBP in 97 games. His 22 stolen bases were more than he stole in '08 and '09 combined (20 in 186 games). He even earned an All-Star berth. Defensively though, he was complete disaster. He posted just a .955 Fld% at shortstop. The league average was .971. He has shown great range now and throughout his career, but he still has a career .965 Fld%, also below-average. Furcal, now 33, is signed through 2011 with a team option for 2012. He hasn't been able to stay healthy two of the past three years, so unless he stays healthy in '11 and has a great year, 2011 will be his last year for the Dodgers. Carroll is his backup at the big league level and Uribe could also play shortstop if necessary, but top prospect Dee Gordon is on the way. Gordon, who will turn 23 in April, spent 2010 at Double-A, hitting .277 with 17 doubles, 2 homers, 39 RBI, 20 triples, 86 runs, a .332 OBP, and best of all, 53 stolen bases. Those 53 stolen bases were great, but he was caught 20 times, so he only had a 73% success rate. He's THAT fast, but he has to work on reading pitchers and getting good jumps. He needs some work defensively, considering he posted just a .936 Fld% at shortstop in '10 with below average range. That seems puzzling that he has bad range considering how fast he is. I'm sure he had some sort of problem defensively that will get resolved in 2011. Depending on how well he plays at Triple-A in '10, Gordon could end up replacing Furcal in 2012. Maybe even if Furcal gets hurt in 2011. The Dodgers hope Furcall can manage to stay healthy in 2011 so they won't have to rush top prospect Dee Gordon to the majors to replace him.

Left field:

Left field is where it gets complicated for the Dodgers. There will be a division of playing time between Jay Gibbons, ex-Yankee Marcus Thames, and Tony Gwynn Jr. Gibbons, a 33 year old lefty hitter, hit .280 for the Dodgers in '10 with 2 doubles, 5 homers, and 17 RBI in 37 games. He hit .348 wtih runners in scoring position. Gibbons hit .333 in 15 plate appearances versus lefties and .267 in 65 plate appearances versus righties. He posted a way below-average .960 Fld% in left field, although he was perfect in 15 games at first base. Thames was pretty incredible as a backup outfielder for the Yankees, hitting .288 wtih 7 doubles, 12 homers, 33 RBI, and a .350 OBP in 82 games. He hit a walk-off homer off of Jonathan Papelbon and he also had a walk-off single. But defensively, he posted the same .960 Fld% in left field that Gibbons did. In the American League, the Yankees were able to use him as a DH, but obviously in the NL that's not possible. Thames hit .300 versus lefties compared to .268 versus righties. Gibbons and Thames are nearly identical players at this stage of their careers, with the main difference being that Gibbons bats lefty and Thames bats righty. They will both turn 34 in March (Gibbons on the 2nd, and Thames on the 6th). They couldn't really platoon, because of their similar trends versus righties and lefties. For his career, Gibbons has hit .259 versus righties compared to .265 versus lefties while Thames has hit .236 versus lefties compared to .264 versus righties. I guess they would have to play Gibbons versus righties and Thames verus lefties if they do decide to make a platoon. Gwynn Jr. is a very different player than Gibbons and Thames. In 2010 for the Padres, his age 28 season, Gwynn hit just .204 with 9 doubles, 3 homers, 20 RBI, 3 triples, 17 stolen bases (his only redeeming quality offensively), and a .304 OBP in 117 games. Defensively however, Gwynn was perfect in '10, posting an 1.000 Fld%. Gwynn will see a lot of playing time as a defensive replacement for Gibbons and Thames in addition to a few starts at all three outfield positions. The other backup outfielder-type player the Dodgers have is Xavier Paul, who will be 26 on February 25th. He hit .231 with the Dodgers in '10 with 8 doubles, 11 RBI, 3 SB, and a .277 OBP in 44 games. He posted a .970 Fld% in left field, which is still below-average, and a .952 Fld% in right field, which is obviously even worse. But, he spent the last three seasons at Triple-A, so this just be what kind of players Paul is. We'll have to see if he makes the team as the 5th outfielder. I bet he will. The Dodgers have a decent situation offensively in left field, but they won't have good defense as long as their starters, Gibbons and Thames, are in the game.

Centerfield:

Matt Kemp will be back in centerfield for the Dodgers again in 2011. There some trade rumors (I addressed a possible Kemp trade to the Yankees in this post), but the Dodgers did hold on to him. Kemp had a down-year in '10, hitting just .245 with 25 doubles, 28 homers, 89 RBI, 6 triples, 82 runs, 19 stolen bases (15 CS), and just a .310 OBP in all 162 games. This came one year after a breakout season in '09, when he hit .297 with 25 doubles, 26 homers, 101 RBI, 7 triples, 97 runs, 34 SB (8 CS), and a .352 OBP in just 159 games. His BA went down because his BAbip went down from .345 in '09 to .295 in '10. The crazy part of Kemp's 2009 BAbip was that he had a crazy .284 BAbip on ground balls compared to .176 in '10. Also, Kemp's strikeout rate jumped up from 20.8% to 20.5%, from 139 K's to 170 K's (although his walk rate did go up slightly from 7.8% to 7.9%). Kemp can work on decreasing his strikeout rate, but he was just too lucky from the beginning of his career in '06 to '09, having a crazy .361 BAbip. His luck just ran out. Kemp is still a good player, but maybe 2010 is just how good he really is. If he starts posting .350 BAbip's again, he'll probably hit .300 and make everyone thing he's a huge superstar, but with average luck, he'll always be one of those good players that can't hit for average or post a good OBP. Basically, Juan Uribe with better power and speed. That's unfortunate for Kemp, but that's basically what kind of player he is looking forward unless he gets lucky again. Defensively, Kemp posted a below-average .985 Fld% in centerfield in '10 with average range. He's a decent fielder. He'll be backed up by Gwynn Jr. and Paul. Matt Kemp's luck ran out in '10, and while he's still a good player, he's certainly not the great player he seemed to be.

Right field:

On May 14th, 2010, Andre Eithier had everything going for him. He was hitting .392 with 11 doubles, 11 homers, 38 RBI, 14 walks compared to 16 strikeouts, and a .457 OBP in 33 games. He seemed to be the front-runner for NL MVP, even if he cooled off a little bit. But, that day, Ethier broke his pinky, sidelining him until 31st, and affecting his swing the rest of the year. He hit just .260 after the injury with 12 homers and 44 RBI in 106 games. Overall in '10, Ethier hit .292 with 33 doubles, 23 homers, 82 RBI, and a .364 OBP in 139 games. With his pinky all healed up, what can the Dodgers expect from Ethier in '11? When Ethier was on a roll before he got hurt, it was at least partially because he had a crazy .388 BAbip. After the injury, his BAbip went down to neutral at .300. In 2009, Ethier's BAbip was .289, a bit below-average, but he still hit .272 with 42 doubles, 31 homers, 106 RBI, 92 runs, and a .361 OBP in 160 games. I would expect him to get back to that in 2011 and he better, considering he'll turn 29 in April. In right field, Ethier posted a great .996 Fld% with 6 outfield assists, although he did show poor range. He'll be backed up by Gwynn and Paul. Assuming he'll be at 100% in 2011, he'll be a very good player for the Dodgers.

Starting Rotation:

Just 22 years old, southpaw Clayton Kershaw has already proved himself as a legitimate ace. In '10, he went just 13-10, but with a 2.91 ERA and 212 K's compared to 81 walks in 32 starts and 204.1 IP. He allowed just 160 hits for a 7.1 H/9, and 13 homers for a 0.6 HR/9. He was a bit lucky, allowing a .279 BAbip. Neutralized, he had a 3.26 ERA, which is still good. A 3.26 ERA from a 23 year old Kershaw in '11 would be great. But, we could see something even better if Kershaw can mature more as a pitcher. With the bat, Kershaw hit just .055, but he led the NL with 18 sac bunts. Clayton Kershaw is a really good ace for the Dodgers.

Ted Lilly was a great midseason acquisition for the Dodgers. After going just 3-8, but with a 3.69 ERA for the Cubs, the veteran left-hander went 7-4 with a 3.52 ERA for the Dodgers. Overall in '10, he went 10-12 with a 3.62 ERA and 166 K's compared to just 44 walks in 30 starts and 193.2 IP. He allowed just 165 hits, which amounts to a very good 7.2 H/9, but 32 homers, good for a Javier Vazquez-esque (at least in 2010) 1.5 HR/9. Overall, he had a very good season. Lilly was incredible besides the homer rate, but two questions: 1) did he allow so few hits because of a low BAbip?; 2) was he unlucky with his homer rate? Well, before I answer Question 1, I have to acknowledge that Lilly's 7.2 H/9 was tied for his best H/9 of his 12-year career. As you may have guessed, he was incredibly lucky, allowing just a .254 BAbip. But, Lilly has been lucky for a long time: he has posted a BAbip .272 or lower each of the past 4 years and he hasn't posted a BAbip .300 or higher since 2001. Why has Lilly been so lucky? Well, he's an extreme fly ball pitcher (.42 ground ball to fly ball ratio [GB/FB] in '10), so he allows a lot of home runs (10.2 of the fly balls he allowed in '10 left the park [this stat is known as HR/FB]), and home runs are not considered to be in play, so they are not counted in Lilly's BAbip. So, Lilly wasn't really lucky, he just gave up so many home runs that he allowed so few other hits (just 6.2 non-homer hits per 9 innings) that his BAbip looked really good, even though he wasn't really lucky and it's been like that his whole career. Which brings up to Question 2. Even though Lilly is an extreme fly ball pitcher, 32 homers is a lot of homers. Has he always given that many homers? Well, he's only had a HR/9 ratio 1.5 or higher twice in the last 5 years, so no. Going back to that 10.2 HR/FB, he has just a 9.2 HR/FB since '03, so yes, he was a bit unlucky with his homer rate in '10. So, keeping these factors in mind, what does Lilly's '10 look like neutralized? Well, neutralized, his H/9 goes up to 8.0 while he HR/9 remains about the same, so he posts a 3.71 ERA. That's still good. Lilly better be good, considering the Dodgers signed him to a three year extension at age 35. With the bat, Lilly is a complete joke. He hit just .043 with no homers or RBI and just 2 sac bunts. Still, you have expect that from a pitcher who spent 8 years in the AL. Lilly is a solid pitcher for the Dodgers.

Hiroki Kuroda, who will turn 36 on February 10th, finally posted his first double-digit win season in the US in '10, going 11-13 with a 3.39 ERA and 159 K's compared to just 48 walks in 31 starts and 196.1 IP. He allowed 180 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and 15 homers, good for a 0.7 HR/9. He pitched very well. Kuroda was a bit lucky, but his .287 BAbip was the highest of his MLB career. He posted a reasonable 6.7 HR/FB. He's just a good pitcher. He also is a savvy batter, considering he hit just .036 with no homers or RBI, but laid down 11 sac bunts. Kuroda is such a good pitcher that I can't really say anything about him.

Chad Billingsley, like the preceding three pitchers, also seemed to have a good year '10. The 26 year old right-hander went 12-11 with a 3.57 ERA and 171 K's compared to 69 walks in 31 starts and 191.2 IP. He allowed just 176 hits, good for an 8.3 H/9, and just 8 homers, which amounts to a great 0.4 HR/9. But, now let's look at his '09 numbers: the same 12-11, but with a 4.03 ERA and 179 K's compared to 86 walks in 32 starts, a relief appearance, and 196.1 IP. That season he allowed 173 hits, good for a 7.9 H/9, but 17 homers, which comes out to a still OK 0.8 HR/9. Was he lucky in '10 or unlucky in '09, or did he just improve? Answer: he just improved. He had a .297 BAbip in '09 and a .304 BAbip in '10, his main reason for improvement was that he decreased his walk rate. Billingsley hasn't been lucky as a pitcher his entire career. Even in his great '08 season where he went 16-10 with a 3.14 ERA and 201 K's, he was somewhat unlucky, allowing a .318 BAbip. Another big reason for Billingsley's improvement in '10 was that he was able to get his GB/FB down to 1.00 (i.e. more or less the same amount of ground balls and fly balls). But, Billingsley got incredibly luck in another regard. Just 3.2% of the fly balls he allowed went for home runs. Even for Roy Halladay, 7.9% of the fly balls he allowed left the park! And don't give me that Dodger Stadium is a pitchers' park. 5.1% of Kershaw's fly balls went for home runs! In 2009, 6.8 of Billingsley's fly balls went for home runs, which isn't good unless you can dominate in every other aspect of pitching (like Halladay). Billingsley just got lucky with fly balls in '10. It was good that he allowed less fly balls, but he still got ridiculously lucky. He's still a pretty good pitcher, but expect his ERA to be a lot closer to 4.00 in 2011. Billingsley hit .145 with 3 RBI and 6 sac bunts. Chad Billingsley posted a 3.57 ERA in '09, but primarily because he got very lucky with fly balls staying in the park, so while he's still an OK pitcher, expect his ERA to go up a bit in 2011.

The Dodgers were able to sign 31 year old right-hander Jon Garland away from the rival Padres. His '10 stats look good, but you have to remember he pitched his home games at Petco Park. He went 14-12 with a career-best 3.47 ERA, but just 136 K's (still a career-high) compared to 87 walks in 33 starts and exactly 200 IP. He allowed 176 hits, good for a 7.9 H/9, and 20 homers, which amounts to a 0.9 HR/9. He just walks too many guys. Neutralized, he went 9-11 with a 4.21 ERA, although if you put him on the 2010 Dodgers, he would have gone 10-10 with a 4.09 ERA. The Dodgers might have been a bit over-zealous in signing Garland to a one year deal worth 5 million dollars, but with a vesting option worth 8 million dollars if he pitches 190 innings. He's just not that good of a pitcher. But, as the 5th starter on this team, he's fine. I still think they're paying him too much. Garland hit pretty well for the Padres, posting a .214 BA with 2 RBI and 6 sac bunts. Neutralized, his BA goes up to .241. Garland is probably being overpaid by the Dodgers, but he's great for a 5th starter.

I can't say I know where Vicente Padilla fits into all of this. He was signed to a one-year deal worth 2 million dollars with a ton of a incentives, one set of incentives for if he's a reliever, and another if he's a starter. In 2010 for the Dodgers, Padilla went 6-5 with a 4.07 ERA and 84 K's compared to just 24 walks in 16 starts and 95 IP. He allowed 79 hits, good for a 7.5 H/9, but 14 homers, which amounted to a 1.3 HR/9. He missed quite a bit of time with forearm and neck injuries. In 2011, the Dodgers are planning to use Padilla in a variety of roles, from spot starter to middle reliever, and possibly even as a closer if Broxton falters again. Padilla began his career as a middle reliever, going 7-9 with a 4.24 ERA, 80 K's, 43 walks, 17 holds, and 2 saves in 83 RA's from 1999 to 2001 with the Diamondbacks and Phillies before being converted to a starter in 2002. He allowed a 10.1 H/9 (although he did allow a .345 BAbip), but a very good 0.4 HR/9. He has made just 1 relief appearance since then. Will Vicente be successful as a middle reliever? I have absolutely no idea. Only time will tell.

Bullpen:

29 year old lefty Hong-Chih Kuo, a 2010 All-Star, had a career year in '10, going 3-2 with a minuscule 1.20 ERA, 73 K's, just 18 walks, 21 holds, and 12 saves in 56 RA's and 60 IP. He allowed just 29 hits, good for an unbelievable 4.4 H/9, and just 1 home run, which amounted to a great 0.2 HR/9. He was incredible. Was he lucky? Heck yes. He allowed just a .207 BAbip. It's hard to be much luckier than that. Just 14% of all balls put in play against him were line drives, so that's good, and it obviously lowered his BAbip, but come on! Neutralized, he allowed a 1.35 ERA (he allowed just a 4.5 H/9 neutralized, probably because of the line drive factor I just mentioned), and who in the world wouldn't take that? Kuo also did alllow a 6.6 H/9 in '08 and '09, so 4.4 isn't THAT far off. He's still a great reliever no matter you say. This offseason, the Dodgers signed 32 year old right-hander Matt Guerrier to a 3 year deal. Guerrier is not your average middle reliever. He has just a 5.9 career H/9. Still, he's been durable, averaging 76 appearances the past 4 season while posting a 3.23 ERA. In 2010, he went 5-7 with a 3.17 ERA, just 42 K's, 22 walks, 24 holds, and 1 save in 74 RA's and 71 IP. Guerrier allowed 56 hits for a 7.1 H/9, and 7 homers for a 0.9 HR/9 that is a little bit too high. Guerrier was lucky in allowing so few hits, allowing a .233 BAbip, the second lowest of his career to 2009, when he allowed a .214 BAbip on his way to a 2.36 ERA. Neutralized, he had a 3.49 ERA in '10, and while that's still pretty good, it doesn't sound like a reliever that you would sign to a three year deal. Guerrier is a good reliever, but not the kind of reliever you would want to sign to a 3-year deal. In 2010, the Dodgers drafted 24 year old right-hander Carlos Monasterios. Monasterios' overall numbers weren't that great (3-5, 4.38 ERA), but he was great in 19 RA's, going 1-0 with a 2.06 ERA, and 23 K's compared to 9 walks in 35 IP. (He did not record a save or hold.) He allowed 31 hits for an 8.0 H/9, and 3 homers for a 0.8 HR/9. Those numbers are certainly promising. We'll have to see how he does in more pressure situations. Another 2010 rookie, 23 year old righty Kenley Jansen, was incredible in '10, going 1-0 with just a 0.67 ERA, 41 K's, 15 walks, 4 holds, and 4 saves (0 blown saves) in 25 RA's and 27 IP. He allowed just 12 hits for a 4.0 H/9 that was even better than Kuo, and 0 homers (obviously good for a 0.0 HR/9). He was lucky to the tune of a .235 BAbip, and that none of the fly balls he allowed left the park, but how do you give a hoot about his 0.69 neutralized ERA? Why was his ERA still so low neutralized? Well, he had a 13.7 K/9, so not many batters were putting the ball in play against him. He was even perfect with the bat, getting a single and a walk in two plate appearances. Jansen could be a special reliever for the Dodgers. Ramon Troncoso, who will turn 28 on February 16th, had a great year in '09, going 5-4 with a 2.72 ERA, 55 K's, 34 walks, 14 holds, and 6 saves in 73 RA's and 82.2 IP. He allowed 83 hits, basically a hit per inning, but just 3 homers, good for a 0.3 HR/9. But, he didn't follow that up very well in '10, going 2-3 with a 4.33 ERA, 34 K's, 18 walks, and 8 holds in 52 RA's and 54 IP. What the difference between '09 and '10 for Troncoso? Well, it wasn't BAbip- Troncoso's .281 BAbip in 2010 was much .33 lower than hit .314 BAbip in '09. The difference was that 9.1% of the fly balls he gave up in '10 went for home runs, compared to just 2.9% in '09. The BAbip is worrying, but then again, a 4.33 ERA isn't that bad. He's a decent reliever and he'll probably make the team. 28 year old right-hander Ronald Belisario had a terrible year in '10, going 3-1 with a 5.04 ERA, 38 K's, 19 walks, 16 holds, and 2 saves in 59 RA's and 55.1 IP. He allowed 52 hits, 8.5 per 9, and 6 homers, which amounts to a bad (for a reliever) 1.0 HR/9. He did all this while have a .280 BAbip, although he did have a 10.2% HR/FB. Belisario did post a 2.04 ERA and 12 holds in '09, so he's not a complete loss cause at all. He could make the team with a good spring training. 27 year old Blake Hawksworth, acquired from the Cardinals this offseason for Ryan Theriot, did not pitch well for the Cardinals in '10, going 4-8 with a 4.98 ERA, 61 K's, 35 walks, and 4 holds in 35 RA's, 8 starts, and 90.1 IP. He allowed 113 hits, a terrible 11.3 H/9, 15 homers for a disastrous 1.5 HR/9. He had a 4.25 ERA, but 9 homers allowed as a reliever. He's a long-shot to make the team, especially with Padilla around. With all the rotation candidates around, John Ely, who was a starter for the Dodgers from late April to late June and posted a 3.62 ERA, before collapsing in two July starts, going back down to the minors, and coming back in September. Overall in '10, he went 4-10 with a 5.49 ERA and 76 K's compared to 40 walks in 18 starts and exactly 100 IP. He allowed 105 hits, over a hit per inning, and 12 homers, which came out to a 1.1 HR/9. He had a .314 BAbip against him, and an 8.0% HR/FB, so he was a bit unlucky. He was lucky enough to have a .276 BAbip until July, but he allowed a crazy .418 BAbip after. Neutralized Ely had a 6.46 ERA, so that's obviously a bad sign. He also had a 6.62 ERA at Triple-A in '10. The Dodgers will almost definitely send Ely back to Triple-A to begin '10. He needs to get back on track. If he does, he's just 24 years old, so he could have a nice career. Jon Link, who will turn 27 on March 23rd, went 3-2 with a 3.71 ERA, 55 K's, and 21 walks (I can't find his holds count) in 44 minor league RA's and 60.2 IP. He allowed over a hit per inning and 0.7 homers per 9, so he needs some work. We won't see him on the big league club to begin the year. The Dodgers should have a good bullpen in '11.

Closer:

The enigma that is Jonathan Broxton. In 2010, he was an All-Star, but was so bad late in the year that Kuo was promoted to the closer job. He ended up going 5-6 with a 4.04 ERA, 73 K's, 28 walks, 3 holds, and 22 saves in 64 RA's and 62.1 IP. He allowed 64 hits, more than a hit per inning, and 4 homers, 0.6 per 9. He had a 0.83 ERA before the Yankees tagged for 4 runs on June 27th, and he posted an unbelievably bad 7.58 ERA after that. In his defense, he did allow a .382 BAbip after June 27th, but a 7.58 ERA! All Dodgers fans should be trembling each time Broxton takes the mound. He has electric stuff, and he better use it better in '10, or we might be forced to see Vicente Padilla close.

Overview:

The Dodgers have a decent hitting team, but they need Kemp and Ethier to bounce back. They have a pretty good top 3 in their rotation, but the last 2 spots are questionable. They have a good, but mostly unproven bullpen, and of course Broxton can be a disaster. They'll be better, but I don't think they're that good of a team at all.

2010 Record: 80-82

Prediction: 84-78, 4th in NL West

The Dodgers will contend if... Kemp and Ethier have huge years, Billingsley and Garland have good years, the youngsters in the bullpen keep performing well, and Broxton saves 30 games.

Good luck, Mattingly.