2011 MLB Preview: Houston Astros

The Houston Astros had a terrible first half in '10, going 36-53, 5th in the NL Central. They were in last place until June 8th. But, in the second half, the Astros were a decent team, going 40-33 in the second half, finishing 76-86, 3rd in the division. Will that second half propel them into contention in 2011?

Catcher:

The Astros have always had great expectations for Jason Castro. Castro was the 10th overall pick out of Castro Valley High School (Castro Valley, California) in the 2008 MLB draft. Entering 2009, he was Baseball America's 53rd-best prospect in the minors, and entering 2010, he was 41st. He was widely ranked as the top prospect in the Astros organization. His time is now. Castro, now 23, made his major league debut in '10, but he didn't do as well as expected, hitting .205 with 8 doubles, 2 homers, 8 RBI, and a .286 OBP in 67 games. Defensively though, Castro played pretty well, posting a .996 Fld% and a 37% CS%. But, he allowed 7 passed balls. So, Castro didn't apparently play very well in his big league debut. But, stats can be deceiving. Castro had a .250 BAbip. He was unlucky. Also, Castro had an above-average 20% LD%, so you would expect him to have a BAbip at least slightly over .300. Castro also had a slightly-above average 70% IP%. Castro was not just unlucky in terms of BAbip, but also in terms of HR/FB. He had just a 2.9% HR/FB. When everything is neutralized, Castro was going to be be fine. Defensively, hopefully someone can work with him on blocking balls, and unless he's Jorge Posada, he was going to be fine in that regard as well. But, Castro hurt his right knee this past Wednesday, tearing his ACL and medial meniscus. Castro could be out for all of 2011.

Castro was going to be be backed up by Humberto Quintero. Quintero is a 31 year old career backup. He hit .234 in '10 with 10 doubles, 4 homers, 20 RBI, and just a .262 OBP in 88 games. He's good defensively, and 2010 was no exception, considering he posted a .992 Fld%, 35% CS%, and he allowed 4 passed balls. He's a decent backup catcher, but it doesn't appear that he could step in as a starter.

J.R. Towles was actually Houston's opening day catcher in '10, but after hitting .191 with 3 doubles, 1 homer, 8 RBI, and a .235 OBP in 17 games, he was sent down to Double-A Corpus Christi where he almost immediately broke a bone in his hand, ending his season. Towles is healthy now. Could he potentially take over for Castro at catcher in 2011 and be effective this time? There isn't really enough of a sample size for Towles in the majors (he's never played more than 54 games in a season), so let's look at his minor league stats. Towles hasn't even had a full minor league season since 2007. That year, Towles hit .287 with 15 doubles, 11 homers, 62 RBI, 14 stolen bases (13 CS), and a .393 OBP in 100 games. Towles had a .312 BAbip that year, so he wasn't overly lucky. If he could somehow put up numbers anywhere near that in the majors, the Astros would be happy. Towles had a .297/.390/.470 (BA/OBP/SLG) line in the minors, but you can't like his .189/.273/.327 line in 101 major league games. But, he did have just a .220 BAbip, although you can't like his 12% LD%. Maybe with more chance, Towles could put everything together. If not, the Astros will probably have to make a trade. Towles is pretty good defensively, owing a .995 MLB Fld%, and a .992 FLd% in the minors, both with a 29% CS%. Castro had the potential to be a very good player for the Astros in 2011, but with him hurt, the positon of catcher is a huge question mark for the team.

First base:

Brett Wallace is the most well-traveled 24 year old you have ever seen. The 24 year old was the 13th overall pick by the Cardinals in the 2008 MLB draft. Before the trade deadline in 2009, Wallace was traded to the A's in the Matt Holliday deal. That offseason, he was traded to Toronto in the Halladay-Lee trade (he was traded to Toronto for Michael Taylor, a prospect who the Blue Jays had just acquired from the Phillies). Then, at the 2010 trade deadline, he was traded to Houston (on the heels of the Roy Oswalt trade), where he finally made his big league debut, hitting .222 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 13 RBI, and a .286 OBP in 51 games. His main claim to fame was that he was hit by 7 pitches while walking just 8 times. Wallace's 2010 stats certainly weren't great, but as we learned with Castro, stats can be deceiving. Is it the same story with Wallace? No. He had a .326 BAbip. He needed a .326 BAbip to hit .222! He had just a 17% LD% and just a 58% IP%. It was a small sample size, but he was terrible in 2010. He did have a 4.4% HR/FB, so he was pretty unlucky in that regard, but even if that had been at neutral in 2010, he still wouldn't have had a good year (he would have had another homer or two, another couple RBI, and maybe a .230 BA at best). Based on these stats, you have to be worried about Wallace as a big league regular. But, it was a small sample size, 159 plate appearances. In the minors, Wallace had .304 BA and a .350 BAbip. He was lucky. But, in 2009, he wasn't so lucky. He had just a .272 BAbip. That season, he posted his lowest BA in the minors, but he certainly survived, hitting .293. You have to hope that Wallace will make some kind of adjustment at the big league level in 2011. Defensively, Wallace owns a .992 Fld% in the majors and a .993 Fld% in the minors at first base, both right around the league average. He's decent defensively.

Wallace will be backed up by Jeff Keppinger and Brian Bogusevic. Keppinger, who will turn 31 in April, is expected to miss the first six weeks of the 2011 season after undergoing foot surgery. Keppinger was Houston's primary second baseman in '10, hitting .288 with 34 doubles, 6 homers, 59 RBI, and a .351 OBP in 137 games. He posted a very good .990 Fld% at second base. After Bill Hall was signed, Keppinger was pushed into a utility role. Keppinger is very good defensively at his natural position, second base, owning a .989 career Fld%, and he also has experience at every other position besides centerfield, pitcher and catcher. Keppinger is a very good backup, and if Wallace fails to meet expectations again, Keppinger could possibly step in as the starter.

Bogusevic has finally gotten to the majors after a very interesting journey through the minors. Bogusevic, 27, was the 24th overall pick in the 2005 draft- as a pitcher. After an awful pro debut in 2005 at Short Season-A (0-2, 7.59 in 13 RA's), Bogusevic made strides in '06 and '07, going 12-13 with a 4.62 ERA, a 7.1 K/9, a 3.4 BB/9, and a 0.6 HR/9 in 47 starts and 220 IP between SS-A, Low-A, High-A, and Double-A. But, after going 2-6 with a 5.50 ERA in 17 starts at Double-A in 2008, the Astros converted Bogusevic to the outfield, and the results were certainly encouraging. Between High-A and Double-A, He hit .347 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 26 RBI, 9 stolen bases, and a .432 OBP in 59 games. He did have a .398 BAbip and it was such a small sample size that still nobody could be sure whether the conversion to the outfield would be successful. Bogusevic made just 1 error defensively between right field and centerfield. In 2009, the Astros promoted Bogusevic to Triple-A, and while he couldn't duplicate his .347 BA and .432 OBP, he still had a decent year, hitting .271 with 25 doubles, 6 homers, 53 RBI, 22 stolen bases, and a .342 OBP in 138 games. He still had a .341 BAbip, but at least he proved to be a decent player with a reasonable BAbip (rather than his unreal .398 BAbip in '08). Defensively, he was perfect in centerfield while posting a .970 Fld% (5 errors) in left field. In 2010, Bogusevic hit .277 at Triple-A with 26 doubles, 13 homers, 57 RBI, 91 runs, 23 stolen bases, and a .364 OBP in 131 games. His BAbip went down to an even more reasonable .329, and he still had a good season. Bogusevic was perfect defensively at all three outfield positions, and he also posted a .991 Fld% while playing first base for the first time as a pro. He had a very good minor league season, and it was good enough to earn him a September call-up. He hit just .179 in 31 plate appearances, but 3 of his 5 hits were doubles. He was perfect defensively in the outfield. Bogusevic has nothing left to prove in the minors, so you have to think he'll make the Astros in some capacity in 2011. He can play first base and the outfield well defensively, and what he lacks in power, he makes up in speed. There are several scenarios where Bogusevic ends up starting somewhere for the Astros. If Wallace fails, he could either take over for him at first base and be among the most wrongly-positioned players in baseball. (How many first baseman don't hit 20 homers and instead steal 20 bases?) Or, Carlos Lee could move to first base and Bogusevic could play left field. We'll have to see what happens, but no matter how everything plays out, Bogusevic will be an effective player for the Astros, whether as a backup or a starter. Brett Wallace has one more chance to prove himself as a big league first baseman, and if he fails, the Astros will replace him in a heartbeat.

Second baseman:

This offseason, the Astros signed Bill Hall to a 1 year, 3 million dollar contract with a mutual option for 2012. Hall will be a regular second baseman for the first time in his career. Hall played every position besides first base and catcher for Boston in 2011, and he hit .247 with 16 doubles, 18 homers, 46 RBI, 9 stolen bases, and a .316 OBP in 119 games. He accumulated 382 plate appearances because of the injuries to Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. Hall had a league average .300 BAbip, so you would think that unless he's lucky or unlucky in 2011, he should hit around .250 again. But, Hall posted a significantly above-average 22% LD% (he also has a 22% career LD%), so you would think he would have a considerably higher BAbip. I wouldn't be that surprised if Hall could hit .270 or .280 with average luck based on his line drive rate. But, two other factors were a problem for Hall in 2011. He had a 13.2% HR/FB, the second-highest of his career to his '06 season when he hit 35 homers, and he posted just a 58% IP%, way off from the league average of 69%. Based on these stats, Hall's LD% and IP% will cancel out and he'll hit around .250 again, and he'll hit around 20 homers because he'll have more AB's in 2011 than he did in '10. Obviously though, Hall could make an adjustment. As a pitcher, Halll appeared in 1 game, pitching 1 perfect inning. Defensively, he posted an above-average .988 Fld% in left field, but he posted just a .966 Fld% at second base with poor range and was below-average at every other position he played. That has to be at least somewhat worrisome for the Astros. In 155 career games at second base, Hall has a .960 Fld%. But, Hall set a career-high with just 51 games at second base in 2011. Maybe with regular time at the position he would improve. Hall will be backed up Keppinger. Hall will be at least a decent player for the Astros in 2011.

Third base:

26 year old Chris Johnson came out of nowhere to have a nice rookie season for the Astros in 2010, hitting .308, tops among MLB rookies, with 22 doubles, 11 homers, 52 RBI, and a .337 OBP in 94 games. But, entering 2010, Johnson had never hit .300 at any level as a pro (he hit .326 in 38 Triple-A games in 2010). Was his .300 BA a fluke? At first glance, yes. He had a crazy .387 BAbip. But, there was a clear reason for his high BAbip: he had an incredible 26% LD%. To put that in perspective, Albert Pujols owns 'just' a 21% LD%. Johnson mashes line drives like there's no tomorrow. I can't find LD% for minor league players anywhere, but it seems pretty clear that Johnson has made an adjustment from his minor league days, just like most players do. Maybe Johnson won't manage a .387 BAbip again in 2011, but it certainly seems like he'll be able to post BA's around .300 for years to come. Johnson's power in '10 was no fluke either, considering he had a 7.7% HR/FB. Johnson is a good offensive player for the Astros. But, I haven't mentioned his defense yet. Johnson posted just a .909 Fld% at third base in '10. His 18 errors were second-most in the NL. And its not like he showed great range either: the league average RF/9 (range factor per 9 innings) for third baseman in '10 was a 2.54. Johnson's RF/9 was just 2.02. He's a terrible defensive third baseman. But, is he that bad? How did he manage just a .909 Fld% compared to the league average of .953? What's very strange is that Johnson owns a .936 career Fld% at third base in the majors with an above-average RF/G (range factor per game). That's still bad, but not terrible. But, in 2010 in the minors, Johnson posted just a .905 Fld%. What happened to Johnson defensively in 2010? My guess would be that while he was on an offensive tear, he lost focus defensively. He had a .947 Fld% in the minors with decent range as recently in 2009. This season, I'm sure Johnson will improve defensively and still hit around .300 offensively with at least 15 or 20 homers. He's a good player for the Astros. Johnson will be backed up by Keppinger. Chris Johnson is not just the name of the Tennessee Titans' 2000-yard rusher; it's also the name of the Astros' solid third baseman.

Shortstop:

This offseason, the Astros acquired middle infielder Clint Barmes from the Astros from the Rockies in exchange for Felipe Paulino. The question I asked in my Rockies preview was 'why would the Rockies trade their starting second baseman for a starting pitcher they didn't need?' (not an exact quote from my other post). The answer from the Rockies perspective was that Paulino is actually much better than the 'regular' stats say he is. How about the Astros perspective. Why didn't they value Paulino as much as the Rockies do? Well, as we'll see later, the Astros have an abundance of decent starting pitching, and Tommy Manzella was not the answer at shortstop for them. But, is Barmes that much better? In 2010, Barmes, who will turn 32 on March 6th, hit just .235 with 21 doubles, 8 homers, 50 RBI, 3 stolen bases (2 CS), and just a .305 OBP in 133 games. Manzella hit .225 with 7 doubles, 1 homer, 21 RBI, 0 stolen bases (1 CS), and a .267 OBP in 83 games. OK, Barmes was better, but he was pretty bad himself. In 2009 though, Barmes had a career-year of sorts, hitting .245 with 32 doubles, 23 homers, 76 RBI, 12 stolen bases (10 CS), and a .294 OBP in 154 games. It's hard to like that .294 OBP, though. The Astros are obviously hoping he can get back to that level. Barmes' BAbip didn't decrease very much from 2009 to 2010, going zdown .08 from .271 to .263, although his HR/FB shot down from 9.3% to 4.4%. It's interesting that Barmes owns just a .281 career BAbip despite a 20% LD%, 22% in both '09 and '10. If everything evens out, Barmes could theoretically hit .270 with 20 homers. Of course, that would probably be with an OBP right around .300. That would still be decent. But, we haven't mentioned one key factor for Barmes: the Coors factor. How will Barmes hit after leaving Mile High? Baseball-Reference's Neutralized Batting tool had him hitting just .229 in '10 if he had played on a neutral field. He would have hit .223 on the 2010 Astros. If he hits that badly, he would be just as bad offensively as Manzella! The Astros have to hope that Barmes' BAbip goes back up to .300 or better after a two-year hiatus. If that happens, Barmes could still have a decent year for Houston. I wish I could say that there's some possibility of Manzella improving offensively, but he had a pretty-neutral .302 BAbip. Also, he had a below-average 18% LD%. He hit .270 because with a .317 BAbip in the minors.There's some possibility he just had an awfully-timed off-year (considering it cost him his starting job), but even if he hit .270, Manzella has no power and not much speed (he stole 12 or more bases in 3 minor league seasons). His value was supposed to be his defense. Manzella was slightly above-average in 2011, posting a .973 Fld% compared to the league average of .971, and a 4.38 RF/9 compared to the league average of 4.31, but that's not nearly enough to offset his poor offense. For Barmes though, his incredible defense makes up for his poor OBP (he really needs to rebound otherwise). But, Barmes owns just a .975 Fld% overall. Why? He gets to balls that practically no other players in the majors would get to. At second base, his primary position the past couple of years, Barmes has a .982 career Fld%, below the league average of .984, but his RF/9 is a crazy 5.13 compared to the 4.84 league average. Same story at shortstop, his primary position as a pro. He owns a .969 Fld%, a few points under the .974 league average, but his RF/9 is an unbelievable 4.99, compared to the league average of 4.43. Barmes will be an asset to the Astros because of his power that's bound to rebound, and his amazing defense. Manzella will back him up. Clint Barmes is a good player overall for the Astros.

Left field:

Carlos Lee was a very good player throughout the first three seasons of his 6 year, 100 million dollar contract, but in 2010, the 4th season of the contract, Lee's performance didn't measure up to the rest of his career. He hit just .246 with 29 doubles, 24 homers, 89 RBI, and just a .291 OBP in 157 games. Lee has a .287/.339/.495 (BA/OBP/SLG) line for his career, but in '10 he was just at just .246/.291/.417. He still had decent power numbers, but what happened to his BA, OBP, and SLG? It's not like he was in decline before 2010, considering he had a .305/.354/.524 line from '07 to '09. If you've been paying any attention while you've been reading this post, you should already be asking the question I'm about to ask: was Lee unlucky? What his BAbip? Lee had just a .238 BAbip, so he was certainly unlucky. If he had had his .286 career BAbip in '10, he could have hit much closer to his regular .287 BA, and obviously his OBP would have been higher accordingly. But, one problem: he had just a 16% LD% in '10, the lowest of his career. Lee has a good 20% career LD%, but in 2010, he was below 18% for the second time in three years. Maybe Lee really was in decline the past couple years, but was able to hide it with a .292 BAbip, above his career average. Lee wasn't so lucky in 2010, and accordingly, he hit just .246. While Lee's BAbip and LD% shot down, his IP% actually stayed right around his career-high of 82% in 2009, staying at 81%, a very good number.

In case you don't know Carlos Lee very well as a player, he doesn't strike out. He has never struck out 100 or times in any season of his career. Because Lee doesn't strike out at all, Lee has a great 76% career IP%, and accordingly, his BAbip has a lot to do with his batting average. (Homers count for BA, but not IP% and BAbip because they are not in play.) Let's compare Lee's career BA's and BAbip's. In 1999, he hit .293 BA with .311 BAbip, while he had a .301 BA and a .322 BAbip in 2000, a .269 BA and a .279 BAbip in 2001, a .264 BA and a .260 BAbip in 2002, a .291 BA and a .295 BAbip in 2003, a .305 BA and a .310 BAbip in 2004, a .265 BA and a .259 BAbip in 2005, a .300 BA and a .281 BAbip in 2006, a .303 BA and a .290 BAbip in 2007, a .314 BA and a .299 BAbip in 2008, a .300 BA and a .290 BAbip in 2009, and in 2010, Lee hit .246 BA with a .238 BAbip. Put those all together, and Lee has a .287 career BA and a .286 career BAbip. There has been a direct correlation between Lee's BA and BAbip. When Lee's BAbip went down to .260 and .259 respectively in 2002 and 2005, it went back up to .295 and .281 respectively and 2003 and 2006. Why couldn't Lee's BAbip rebound in 2011 just like it rebounded in '03 and '06 and get his BA back up to its normal level? Well, there are two problems: first of all, Lee was 27 and 30 respectively in 2003 and 2006 when his BAbip rebounded, but now he's 34. Secondly, you have to look at Lee's line drive percentages those three years. Lee was the unluckiest player in baseball in 2002, having a .260 BAbip despite an amazing 25% LD%, so of course his BAbip was bound to rebound. In 2005, he had an 18% LD%, so his BAbip had to rebound, but it rebounded more modestly, to .281. In 2010, I'll repeat, Lee had just a 16% LD%. A player with a 16% LD% should have around a .240 BAbip unless he's fast and gets many infield hits, or he's very lucky. Lee might rebound a bit in 2011, but not by that much. He's just isn't as good of a hitter as he used to be. I would predict something like a .260 BA, a .250 BAbip, and a .315 OBP for Lee in 2011. Good thing he's still a pretty good power hitter and he'll probably hit over 20 homers and drive in 80 or more runs for the 12th consecutive season as long as he stays healthy. Defensively, Lee was once a halfway decent defender, considering he owns a .984 career Fld% in left field that was exactly the league average, albeit with below-average range, but he's awful now, considering he posted just a .969 Fld% in left field in 2010 with a 1.55 RF/9 compared to the league average of 1.82. Lee is just a decent player overall nowadays.

Lee will be backed up by Bogusevic and Jason Michaels. Michaels is a decent player, considering his .267/.341/.415 line. He has been an outfield backup pretty much his whole career, with his lone season as a starter being in 2006 as a member of the Indians. In 2010, Michaels hit .253 with 14 doubles, 8 homers, 26 RBI, and a .310 OBP in 106 games for the Astros. Michaels has always been an above-average defender in the outfield, but that was not that case in 2010. He had a perfect 1.000 Fld%, but with bad range. For the second straight year, Michaels posted a -0.4 dWAR, and this is from a player who once posted a great 1.7 dWAR (in 2005). At age 34 going on 35 (in May), Michaels isn't the player he used to be, and he's just a decent backup at this point of his career. At least the Astros are only paying him. $900,000. Carlos Lee isn't nearly the player he used to be, but he's still a decent player for the Astros.

Center field:

'Oh, you missed it. Michael Bourn was just here.' Michael Bourn is one of the best base stealers in baseball. He has stolen 40 or more bases each of the past three seasons, including 61 in 2009 and 52 in 2010, both of which led the league.The 28 year old speedster was successful on 82% of his stealing attempts, so certainly his base stealing helped the team. In terms of overall hitting, Bourn isn't great, but he's certainly good enough considering his speed. He hit .265 in '10 with 25 doubles, 2 homers, 38 RBI, 6 triples, 84 runs, the aforementioned 52 stolen bases (12 CS), and a .341 OBP in 141 games. Among his 142 hits, 41 of them were infield hits and 10 of them were bunt hits. In 2009, Bourn was better across the board, hitting .285 with 27 doubles, 3 homers, 35 RBI, 12 triples, 97 runs, 61 stolen bases (12 CS), and a .354 OBP in 157 games. 46 of Bourn's 173 hits were infield hits, and 17 of his hits were bunt hits. Why did Bourn hit .20 better in '09 than in '10. Well, first off, although he got a higher percentage of infield hits in '10 compared to '09, 28.9% compared to 26.6%, he got a lesser percentage of bunt hits, 7% compared to 10%. Oh yeah, and there's BAbip. Bourn's BAbip was a crazy .366 in '09. When it went to .329 in '10, of course his BA went down .20 to .265. Wait a second- Bourn has been really lucky the past couple years. Was it because of a good line drive rate? Well, his LD% did decrease from 17% to 15% from '09 to '10, so his BAbip should have gone down, but how did he still have such a high BAbip? The forced answer is that he legs out so many infield and bunt hits. But, what if he doesn't get as many of those types of hits? When Bourn had a .290 BAbip in 2008, he hit just .228. Is that bound to happen in 2011 when his BAbip finally returns to neutral? In 2008, 43% of Bourn's hits were either infield hits or bunt hits. He became too dependent on those types of hits. He had just a paltry 13% LD% that year. Bourn has to be a real hitter, not just a speedster. Even when he hit .228, he still stole 41 bases, but in order to be a real top-flight base stealer, he has to get on base more. The infield hits are nice, but he has to hit more line drives. He can't be bunting and hitting those soft grounders all the time. Think about it this way: if Bourne could hit .300, he could steal maybe 70 bases with is speed. Bunting is obviously an important part of his game, but he has to be able to be an effective legitimate hitter the rest of the time. Defensively, Bourn certainly uses his speed well. He had an above-average .992 Fld% in centerfield in '10 with incredible range (2.78 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.59). Baseball-Reference gave him a crazy 2.4 dWAR, tops in baseball, and the 103rd best mark ever for a single season. He's an incredible defender. Bourn will be backed up by Bogusevic and Michaels. Michael Bourn has his faults offensively, but overall, he uses his great speed as a huge advantage and he's a very good player.

Right field:

Hunter Pence, who will turn 28 on April 14th, has been a pretty consistent player the past 3 years, hitting 25 homers each year. He hit .282 for the second consecutive season in 2010, with 29 doubles, 25 homers, 91 RBI, 93 runs, 18 stolen bases, and a .325 OBP in 156 games. He had a .304 BAbip, so this is who Pence is as a player. He did have an above-average 11.7% HR/FB, but that was his lowest HR/FB since 2007. Pence had a good 74% IP%, but just a 15% LD%. Those numbers basically cancel out. Pence is a pretty good player offensively, and it seems like he'll always be a pretty good player offensively.Defensively, Pence is an above-average defender, but it doesn't always appear that way. He posted a 2.29 RF/9 in '10 compared to the league average of 2.10 for right fielders, but he posted just a .983 Fld%. Pence has become relatively well known for his arm in the outfield. He was 3rd among NL right fielders with 9 assists, but that was his fewest amount of assists since 2007. He led NL right fielders with 16 assists in both 2009 and 2010. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he gets back to that number in 2011. Pence will be backed up by Bogusevic and Michaels. Pence is a pretty good right fielder for the Astros.

Starting rotation:

Wandy Rodriguez was the undisputed ace of the Astros after the Roy Oswalt trade. Now, you can't be so sure. The 32 year old southpaw went just 11-12 in '10, but with a 3.60 ERA, and 178 K's compared to just 68 walks in 32 starts and 195 IP. He allowed 183 hits, an 8.4 H/9, and 16 homers, a good 0.7 HR/9. Rodriguez would only be a second or even a third starter and many other teams, but he's still a good pitcher. Rodriguez allowed a .307 BAbip and a 6.3% HR/FB, so he wasn't really lucky or unlucky. He did allow a 21% LD%, but that was canceled out by a 66% IP%. He's legitimately a good pitcher. Rodriguez is also a decent hitter. He hit .190 in '10 with 4 RBI and 9 sac bunts. Wandy Rodriguez is a good pitcher for the Astros, but he isn't good enough to be an ace for a playoff team.

Could Brett Myers be that ace? At age 30, Myers had his first very good year in the majors. He went 14-8 with a 3.14 ERA, and 180 K's compared to 66 walks (just better than Rodriguez) in 33 starts and 223.2 IP. He allowed 212 hits, 8.5 per 9, and 20 homers, 0.8 per 9. Myers finished 10th in the NL Cy Young Award voting, and he ranked 8th in the NL with a 4.6 pitching WAR, just 0.1 behind his ex-teammate Cole Hamels. But, especially considering it was his first very good year, did Myers just get really lucky in '10? His .292 BAbip was close to neutral, and his 6.6% HR/FB as well, so he really wasn't lucky. He allowed a slightly above-average 70% IP%, but he allowed just a 16% LD%. If he can stay healthy, Myers has the potential to put up numbers like his 2010 season for the next few years. Myers is a decent hitter as well, considering he hit .177 in '10 with 2 RBI and 11 sac bunts. Myers was a very good pitcher for the Astros in '10, but the question is whether he can continue that in 2011.

J.A. Happ is a step down from Myers and Rodriguez, but he's a pretty good pitcher in his own right. The 28 year old lefty went 6-4 in '10 with a 3.40 ERA, 70 K's, and 47 walks in 16 starts and 87.1 IP. He allowed 73 hits, a 7.5 H/9, and 8 homers, a 0.8 HR/9. He missed quite a bit of time with Phillies with a forearm strain before being traded to the Astros in the Roy Oswalt trade. The big question with Happ is whether he will ever be able to get back to his 2009 levels, when he went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA and 119 K's compared to 56 walks in 23 starts, 12 RA's, and 166 IP. He allowed 149 hits that year, a 8.1 H/9, and 20 homers, a 1.1 HR/9. The very interesting thing for Happ from '09 to '10 was his H/9. It decreased to 8.1 to 7.5 despite a decrease of just .003 in BAbip and an increase in LD% from 17% to 20%. Turns out that Happ was actually unlucky in terms of hits allowed in 2009. The decrease in homers was simply because of HR/FB- his HR/FB decreased from 8.0% to 6.3% from '09 to '10. Happ also improved in K/9 from 6.5 to 7.2, ground ball rate (38.4% GB%, 0.62 GB/FB, and 0.85 GO/AO in '09 to a 39.0% GB%, 0.65 GB/FB, and a 0.90 GO/AO in '10), and IP%, which decreased from 70% to 65% from '09 to '10. Happ's real problem were his walk rate (which increased from a 3.0 BB/9 to a 4.8 BB/9), and his LD%, which I already mentioned. Happ's decline in walk rate and LD% were certainly a big reason why his ERA went up by 0.47, but considering his decline in walk rate was pretty much canceled out by his increase in K/9 and decrease in H/9, and despite his increase in LD%, his BAbip actually lowered, there had to have been another reason for his increase in ERA. The reason was how he pitched with runners in scoring position. In 2009, 83% of all the runners that reached second against Happ did not score (i.e. they were either stranded on base or tagged or forced out on the bases). Happ allowed just a .158 BA against him with runners in scoring positon. The low BA with RISP was primarily because of a .181 BAbip. In 2010, things evened out a lot more. 69% of the runners who reached second against Happ did not score. Happ allowed a still good .247 BA against him in those situations, allowing .262 BAbip. Happ got extremely lucky with RISP in 2009, and when that evened out in 2010, his ERA went up accordingly. Expect Happ to be more like the pitcher he was in '10 rather than in '09 going forward. Another proof that Happ just got very lucky in '09 was his FIP (fielding independent pitching- read it like an ERA). In 2009, he had a 4.33 FIP- he was lucky enough to have a 2.93 ERA because the Phillies played good defense behind Happ. When he played 2010 primarily with the Astros, who are worse defensively than the Phillies, he actually had a slightly better 4.32 FIP, but the Astros didn't play as well defensively behind him, and accordingly, he had a 3.40 ERA. Happ 2009 was pretty much a fluke, but Happ is still a pretty good pitcher. Don't ask Happ to do anything with the bat- he hit .000, yeah .000, in 26 AB's, although he did have a walk and 3 sac bunts. Happ is a pretty good pitcher for the Astros, but he's not as good as his 2009 stats might have indicated.

There are five candidates for the last two spots in the Astros' rotation: Bud Norris and Nelson Figueroa, who played important roles for the Astros in 2010, Rule 5 draft picks Aneury Rodriguez from the Rays and Lance Pendleton from the Yankees, and Ryan Rowland-Smith, signed as a free agent for just $725,000 this offseason.

I guess Bud Norris wasn't that bad for the Astros in '10. The 26 year old right-hander went 9-10 with a 4.92 ERA and 158 K's compared to 77 walks in 27 starts and 153.2 IP. He allowed 151 hits, an 8.8 H/9, and 18 homers, a 1.1 HR/9. His numbers were pretty decent- besides his ERA. He did have a 4.5 BB/9, but that was cancled out by a great 9.3 K/9. How did he post a 4.92 ERA? Well, first of all, he had a .318 BAbip, so he was a bit unlucky, but he still allowed less than a hit per inning. Norris allowed just a 15% LD%, so he was actually really unlucky to allow a BAbip over .300. In terms of his homers allowed, he allowed an 8.6 HR/FB, so he was also unlucky in that regard. He also allowed just a 61% IP%, so that was not his problem. Turns out that he had the same problem Happ had in '10, but to an extreme level. Just 61% of the runners who reached second against Norris did not score. Batters hit .327 against Norris with RISP, mostly because of a .383 BAbip. He also had a decent 4.17 FIP. Norris is not as bad as his 2010 stats. Maybe he's not a great pitcher, but he's certainly a decent one. Norris is also a halfway-decent hitting pitcher, considering he hit .159 in '10 with 2 RBI and 10 sac bunts. When everything evens out, Bud Norris will be much better in 2011, and he is a good candidate for the Astros' 4th starter job.

Nelson Figueroa hasn't worked exclusively or even nearly exclusively as a starter as a pro since 2000, when he started 24 minor league games and relieved in 1 while starting 3 major league games. At age 36 going on 37, Figueroa has an opportunity to be a full-time starting for the first time in his career. In '10, Figueroa went 7-4 between the Phillies and Astros (he was selected off waivers) with a 3.29 ERA, 73 K's, 34 walks, 0 holds, and 1 save in 20 RA's, 11 starts, and 93 IP. He allowed 84 hits, an 8.1 H/9, and 10 homers, a 1.0 HR/9. He had a 3.26 ERA as a starter versus a 3.34 ERA as a reliever. For his career, he has a 15-27 record and a 4.65 ERA as a starter and a 3.42 ERA, 1 hold, and 1 save as a reliever. In 2010, Figueroa had a .278 BAbip against him, a 19% LD% against him, and a 7.6 HR/FB. Those stats aren't quite evened out, but they're relatively close. Could Figueroa post at sub-4.00 ERA if given a chance to be the Astros' 5th starter? There's a possibility. Especially considering Figueroa has been mostly a reliever in his career, Figueroa had a really good offensive season for a pitcher in '10, hitting .235 with 5 sac bunts. Figueroa could be a decent pitcher for the Astros if he's given a chance to be a full-time starter for the first time in his career.

23 year old right-hander Aneury Rodriguez had probably his best overall season in the minors in '10, going 7-5 with a 3.71 ERA, 100 K's, 51 walks, 113 hits (8.2 H/9), and 10 homers allowed (0.7 HR/9) in 19 starts, 10 RA's, and 123.2 IP between Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham in the Rays organization. (He had a 3.80 ERA at Triple-A.) If Rodriguez could put up a 3.71 ERA in the majors, that would certainly be good, but could he? Rodriguez has a 4.56 minor league ERA for his career. Was 2010 a fluke? He had a .281 BAbip against him in 2010, certainly a reasonable number, but he had a 73.1% strand rate (total bases against him/runs scored against him), easily the highest of his minor league career. Is the high strand rate the beginning a trend or a fluke? That has yet to be determined. If so, Rodriguez could be an effective big league pitcher. Rodriguez has never batted as a pro. Rodriguez has potential, but he's a question mark for the Astros, and he may be returned to the Rays.

Lance Pendleton, a 27 year old right-hander, had a pretty good season in the Yankees organization in '10, going 12-5 between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre with a 3.61 ERA, 133 K's, 57 walks, 124 hits allowed (7.2 H/9), and 15 homers allowed (0.9 HR/9) in 27 starts, 2 RA's, and 154.2 IP. His BAbip was .256 in the minors in '10. Pendleton was clearly lucky, especially since his previous low for BAbip was .288. His FIP was 3.75, relatively close to his ERA. But, that 3.75 FIP was the highest of his career. Maybe if these were Pendleton's Triple-A stats, I would have more confidence in him, but 23 of his 29 appearances came at Double-A. Pendleton could potentially be a pretty good pitcher, but he's even more of a question mark than Aneury Rodriguez. He also has never batted as a pro. Pendleton is a complete question mark for the Astros, and it's unlikely that they don't return him to the Yankees.

Ryan Rowland-Smith, a 28 year old Australian southpaw, was downright awful for the Mariners in '10. There's honestly no word to properly describe his performance. He went 1-10 with a 6.75 ERA, 49 K's, 45 walks, 141 hits allowed (11.6 H/9), and 25 homers allowed (2.1 HR/9) in 20 starts, 7 RA's, and 109.1 IP. He managed a -3.6 pitching WAR. Oh my gosh. Please tell me his was really unlucky. Oh shoot- he had a .304 BAbip in '10. He wasn't unlucky in that regard. And you know what! He was actually lucky to have that .304 BAbip! He allowed a 22% LD%! (Enough with the exclamation points.) He also allowed a 73% IP%.Where Rowland-Smith was unlucky was in terms of HR/FB. He allowed an 11.1% HR/FB, significantly exceeding the MLB average and his previous career-high of 7.0% in 2008. Even so, how did he managed a 6.75 ERA? He managed a 3.62 ERA from 2007 to 2009, so what happened in 2010? All the stats I've mentioned are a factor, but one stat I didn't mention was XBH% (extra base hits/plate appearances). Rowland-Smith allowed a crazy 12.8% XBH%. From '07 to '09, he had an 8.0% XBH%, just above the MLB average of 7.8%. When you allow that many more extra base hits then the average MLB pitcher, you'll allow at least a few more runs per 9 innings, hence the terrible 6.75 ERA. His low strikeout rate (4.0 K/9), and relatively high walk rate (3.6 BB/9) are a real problem, but once his XBH% evens out, he'll at least be a decent pitcher. Nevertheless, he has no business being the Astros' 5th starter. Rowland-Smith does have a 3.68 ERA in 68 career relief appearances. Maybe he could contribute in the bullpen. Also, in the bullpen, he wouldn't have to embarrass himself at the plate (.000 BA in 4 AB's). Ryan Rowland-Smith is due for somewhat of a bounce-back in 2011, but that's more likely to happen in the Astros' bullpen rather than their rotation.

Norris should definitely be the Astros' 4th starter, and either Figueroa or Aneury Rodriguez should be the 5th starter.

Bullpen:

27 year old right-hander Wilton Lopez had a great year for the Astros in '10, going 5-2 with a 2.96 ERA, 50 K's (6.7 K/9), just 5 walks (a ridiculous 0.7 BB/9), 14 holds, and 1 save in 68 RA's and 67 IP. He allowed 66 hits, an 8.9 H/9, but just 4 homers, a 0.5 HR/9. It was Lopez's rookie season, and if he keeps pitching like he did in 2010, he'll be a sought-after reliever. But, will he be able to repeat his 2010 performance? Did he do so well in 2010 because he was lucky? Before I say anything else, I have to acknowledge that Lopez is a sinker-baller and a pretty good one too (55.7% GB%, 1.26 GB/FB, 1.64 GO/AO). He allows a lot of balls in play (77 IP%). As you might expect from a sinker-baller, he allowed a slightly above-average BAbip (.308). He also allowed just a 16% LD%. Factor that in with his extremely low walk rate, and he's a very good pitcher. But, how did he allow just a 0.5 HR/9? Well, he did have a slightly below-average 5.1% HR/FB in '10, but not that low (MLB average is 7.7%). Lopez is just a very good relief pitcher. Wilton Lopez is an effective setup man for the Astros.

Jeff Fulchino was the exact opposite of Lopez in '10. The 31 year old righty went 2-1 in '10 with a 5.51 ERA, 46 K's (8.7 K/9), 22 walks allowed (4.2 BB/9), and 5 holds in 50 RA's and 47.1 IP. He allowed 50 hits, a 10.1 H/9, and 7 homers, a bad 1.3 HR/9. He clearly allowed too many walks, hits, and homers. But, this is from a reliever who posted a 3.40 ERA and 12 holds in 2009. What happened? First of all, he allowed a .333 BAbip, quite a bit above average, while actually allowing an 18% LD% that was better than the league average. That's certainly one way in which Fulchino was unlucky. He also allowed a better-than-average 64% IP%. The second way that Fulchino was unlucky was in terms of HR/FB. Fulchino wasn't as unlucky as Rowland-Smith, but he allowed a 9.0 HR/FB. It seems like when everything evens out, Fulchino will be a pretty good pitcher again. He's not a great pitcher, but he should certainly post an ERA in the 3.00's in 2010. Good job by the Astros sticking with Fulchino. Jeff Fulchino is a pretty good middle reliever for the Astros.

Mark Melancon, acquired from the Yankees in the Lance Berkman trade, had a pretty good year in '10, going 2-0 with a 4.22 ERA, 22 K's (9.3 K/9), 8 walks (3.4 BB/9), and 8 holds in 22 RA's and 21.1 IP between the Yankees and Astros. He allowed 19 hits, 8.0 per 9, and 2 homers, 0.8 per 9. If you take out Melancon's two appearances with the Yankees in which he allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings, Melancon had a 3.12 ERA. He happened to have two bad appearances with the Yankees before being traded, but he was sharp with the Astros. Overall with the Astros, he went 2-0 with the aforementioned 3.12 ERA, 19 K's (9.9 K/9), 8 walks (4.2 BB/9), 12 hits allowed (6.2 H/9), 1 homer allowed (0.5 HR/9), and 8 holds in 20 RA's and 17.1 IP. Melancon allowed a .298 BAbip overall, .262 with the Astros. How did Melancon manage that low BAbip with the Astros? Melancon did allow a 19% LD%, but that came along with a ground ball rate that was above the league average (46.5% GB%, 0.87 GB/FB, 1.21 GO/AO). Maybe Melancon was a bit lucky, but not by a ridiculous amount. Even if Melancon's BAbip ever does spike above .300, his very good strikeout rate (9.9 K/9 in '10, and 8.8 K/9 in the minors) should keep his ERA under 3.50 as long as he's OK otherwise. Melancon was lucky in terms of homers allowed with the Astros, allowing a 5.6% HR/9, but he doesn't allow very many fly balls anyway because of his good ground ball rate, and again, he strikes out so many batters, so his ERA shouldn't go up more than a few points when his HR/FB evens out. Melancon is juggling a few potential problems, but it appears that he'll be fine. Mark Melancon is a good reliever for the Astros.

Fernando Abad will be the Astros' lefty specialist in '10. The 25 year old southpaw went 0-1 in '10 with a 2.84 ERA, 12 K's (5.7 K/9), 5 walks (2.4 BB/9), 14 hits allowed (6.6 H/9), 3 homers allowed (1.4 HR/9), and 6 holds in 22 RA's and 19 IP in his rookie season in the big leagues (he was on an active roster for over 30 days, so despite throwing just 19 innings, he lost his rookie eligibility). Those are very good stats, but the first thing that jumps out at you when you delve deeper is of course, his BAbip. Abad had just a .196 BAbip against him in '10. Was he lucky or what? Actually, Abad wasn't all that lucky. Abad allowed just a 10% LD%, nearly half the league average. He did allow a 74% IP%, but a crazy 20% of the fly balls he allowed were on the infield (league average, 13%). Abad was unlucky in terms of homer rate among fly balls (9.4 HR/FB), but even so, he was so dominant because of his microscopic line drive rate and great popup rate. He was also heloped out by an 87.8 LOB%. Abad's 2.35 ERA in 19 Triple-A appearances prove that he wasn't a complete fluke in 2010. Maybe when everything evens out, Abad won't be quite as good a reliever as he was in 2010, but he seems like he could be a pretty good lefty specialist for the Astros for at least the next couple years. Fernando Abad is a pretty good lefty in the bullpen for the Astros.

25 year old Enerio Del Rosario is the clear frontrunner for the final spot in the Astros' bullpen. Del Rosario, acquired from the Reds in September for cash considerations, appeared in 11 games in 2010 between the Reds and Astros, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA, 4 K's (3.6 K/9), 4 walks (3.6 BB/9), 17 hits allowed (15.3 H/9), 0 homers allowed, and 0 holds in 11 RA's and 10 IP. He was pretty terrible (how did he manage a 4.50 ERA?), but it was such a small sample size. Let's look at his minors stats from '10. At Triple-A Louisville in the Reds organization, Rosario went 4-4 with a 3.09 ERA, 34 K's (4.8 K/9), 17 walks (2.4 BB/9), 61 hits allowed (8.6 H/9), 7 homers allowed (1.0 HR/9), and 6 saves in 50 RA's and 64 IP. He allowed a .266 BAbip in '10 in the minors, in sharp contrast to the .436 BAbip he allowed in the majors. Del Rosario is a ground ball pitcher (55.3% GB%, 1.24 GB/FB, and 2.00 GO/AO in the majors in '10), so you wouldn't expect him to post a BAbip that much under .300, but his 2010 minors stats are probably his upside. I would expect an ERA around 4.00 or 4.50 for Del Rosario in the majors in '11. Enerio Del Rosario at best is a decent pitcher, but he's a fine player as the last pitcher on the roster for the Astros.

Closer:

After splitting time with Matt Lindstrom at closer for the Astros in '10, 31 year old right-hander Brandon Lyon has the closer job all by his lonesome in 2011. Lyon had a good year in 2010, going 6-6 with a 3.12 ERA, 54 K's, 31 walks, 68 hits allowed, 2 homers allowed, 19 holds, and 20 saves in a career-high 79 RA's and 78 IP. As you probably noticed though, I ommitted Lyon's rate stats in the previous sentence. He had a 6.2 K/9, a 3.6 BB/9, a 7.8 H/9, and a 0.2 HR/9. Those strikeout and walk rates are completely unimpressive. My first guess, if I didn't know Lyon at all as a pitcher, would be that he must force a lot of ground balls. But, he had just a 39.9% GB%, 0.66 GB/FB, and 0.88 GO/AO in '10, all below-average. In reality, Lyon was so good because of a 16% IF/FB (fly balls on the infield percentage, i.e. popups on the infield and line drives that an infielder could catch and/or make a play on). That was Lyon's second consecutive season with a 16% IF/FB, but his career average is just 13% and the MLB average the past few years has been 12%. His IF/FB wouldn't be such a problem if he didn't allow so many line drives. Well, he does, or at least he did in '10. He allowed a 20% LD% in '10. His IF/FB helped him get a .276 BAbip in '10. If his IF/FB goes back to his career average and his LD% either stays where it is and reverts to his career average (an even worse 21% LD%), Lyon will be in trouble in 2011, and he could even allow a hit per inning for the first time since 2008 with the D-backs. Lyon also allowed a 72% IP%. What was Lyon's real redeeming quality? Well, after going through the other rate stats, there's just 1 left: Lyon's 0.2 HR/9, a very good rate. But, he needed to be lucky to put up that number as well, allowed just a 1.7% HR/FB. Based on everything I just said, it seems that when everything evens out for Lyon in 2011, he will post a considerably worse ERA (an ERA of at least a run higher), and would be lucky to save 30 games and last in the closer spot all year. That sounds relatively similar to Lyon's 2008 season. In 2008, Lyon went 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA, 44 K's (6.7 K/9), 13 walks (2.0 BB/9), 75 hits allowed (11.4 H/9), 7 homers allowed (1.1 HR/9), 3 holds, and 26 saves in 61 RA's and 59.1 IP. That season, he allowed a .342 BAbip, 20% LD%, 10% IF/FB, 6.3% HR/FB, a 39.8% GB%, a 0.67 GB/FB, and a .80 GO/AO. That would not be that bad of a season, but what about Lyon's 2009 with the Tigers? In 2009, Lyon went 6-5 with a 2.86 ERA, 57 K's (6.5 K/9), 31 walks (3.5 BB/9), 56 hits allowed (6.4 H/9), 7 homers allowed (0.8 HR/9), 15 holds, and 3 saves in 65 RA's and 78.2 IP. That season, he allowed a .231 BAbip, 18% LD%, 16% IF/FB, 7.4% HR/FB, a 47.2% GB%, a 0.91 GB/FB, and a 1.36 GO/AO. The big difference for Lyon was a much improved ground ball rate. I don't think Lyon is likely to have as season as bad his 2008 or as good as his 2009, so you have to expect a compromise. Let's say Lyon returns to his .296 career BAbip, gets his LD% back down to the league average of 19%, has his career 6.2% HR/FB, his career 42.1% GB%, .73 GB/FB, a 1.00 GO/AO. That would come out to something like a high 3.00's ERA, 30 saves exactly, nearly a hit per inning (maybe an 8.8 H/9) and a 1.0 HR/9 (with his K/9 and BB/9 staying right around his career averages of 5.9 and 2.9 respectively). That would certainly be a decent season for Lyon, and the Astros would be happy with that. Brandon Lyon is a decent closer for the Astros.

Overview:

The Astros are a decent offensive team, but nothing special. Defensively, the Astros have some studs (such as Clint Barmes and Michael Bourn), but also some severe holes (such as Carlos Lee, as of right now, Chris Johnson, and possibly Brett Wallace). The Astros have a pretty good top 3 in their rotation, but they don't have an established ace anymore, and their bottom two are questionable. The Astros have a league-average bullpen. Based on all these factors, it's pretty clear that the Astros are an OK team, but nothing better. They'll improve in 2011, but not anywhere enough to make a run at the postseason.

2011 record: 76-86

Prediction: 81-81, 5th in NL Central

The Astros will contend if... they get decent production at the catcher position, Brett Wallace finds himself at the big league level, Chris Johnson is better defensively while keeping up his offensive production, Carlos Lee gets back to hitting at close to .300 while at least showing effort defensively, Bourn steals 60 bases again, Myers pitches as well as he did in 2010, Wandy Rodriguez follows suit, Bud Norris and the 5th starter pitch decently, the bullpen pitches to the best of its ability, Lyon saves 30+ games.