Do the Pirates have any hope of making the playoffs in '10? No. Do they have any chance of finishing .500 or better? No. So, how will they do? How bad will they be? Let's find out.
Catcher:
Chris Snyder or Ryan Doumit? Take your pick. Neither? The Pirates sure wish that was a choice. Snyder recently turned 30 and owns a .229 career BA. Doumit turns 30 on April 3rd and owns a .268 BA. In 2010, Snyder hit .207 with 9 doubles, 15 homers, 48 RBI, and a .320 OBP in 105 games between the D-backs and Pirates. Doumit hit 251 with 22 doubles, 13 homers, 45 RBI, and a .331 OBP in 124 games or the Pirates. Snyder posted a .995 Fld% at catcher with a 23% CS% and 6 passed balls. Doumit posted a .990 Fld% at catcher with just a 12% CS%, and 9 passed balls and just a .929 Fld% in right field. Doumit is a better hitter, while Snyder is a much better defender. Could they platoon? Snyder is a righty hitter while Doumit is a switch hitter. Snyder has hit .220 versus righties compared to .248 versus lefties in his career. Doumit has hit .272 versus righties compared to .256 versus lefties. I guess Snyder could start against lefties and Doumit against righites. Either way, they're not that great. It's not like the Jeff Mathis-Mike Napoli platoon where Mathis was a great defender and Napoli was a great hitter. Snyder might be a great defender, but Doumit is just a decent hitter himself. The Pirates certainly have a bad situation at catcher.
First base:
34 year old Lyle Overbay, signed this offseason to a one-year, 5 million dollar contract, is lined up to be the Pirates' first baseman in 2011. Overbay had a decent year for the Blue Jays in 2010, hitting .243 with 37 doubles, 20 homers, 67 RBI, and a .329 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .996 Fld% at first base. He had a .285 BAbip in '10, so he pretty much is what he is at this point of his career. Overbay will be backed up by Steven Pearce. Pearce, who will turn 28 in April, hit .276 in the majors in '10 with 2 doubles, 0 homers, 5 RBI, and a .395 OBP in 15 major league games. He made one error at first base in 86 chances, which amounted to a below-average .988 Fld%, not that it makes a huge difference. In the minors, between High-A (2 games) and Triple-A (35 games), Pearce hit .331 with 16 doubles, 3 homers, 17 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and a .428 OBP. He missed time with several injuries, including a knee injury that required surgery that ended his season in August. The Pirates have two players who can play first base besides Overbay who will definitely be on the roster, Garrett Jones and Matt Diaz, but Jones will start in right field and Diaz in the primary backup in the outfield. So, based on that, Pearce has a chance to make the roster with a good spring training. We'll have to see what happens. Overbay will be a pretty good first baseman in 2011 for the Pirates.
Second base:
25 year old Neil Walker had a great rookie season, hitting .296 with 29 doubles, 12 homers, 66 RBI, and a .349 OBP in 110 games. Walker had a .340 BAbip, which would normally be very worrying, but he had a 23% LD% (league-average 19%), and a 71% IP% (league average 69%), so he should be pretty much fine. He posted a .985 Fld% defensively at second base (league average .984), albeit with below-average range. Walker was good enough to finish 5th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Walker's backup will be 26 year old Josh Rodriguez. Rodriguez, the first overall pick in the 2010 Rule 5 draft, spent all of 2010 in the minors, hitting .297 between Double-A (21 games) and Triple-A (86 games) with 30 doubles, 13 homers, 57 RBI, 6 stolen bases, and a .378 OBP. Defensively, he played second base, third base, shortstop, centerfield, right field, and left field, so he'll play all over the place as a utility player for the Pirates. He's a below-average fielder across the board, but he's best at second base (.976 career Fld%). He's a pretty good hitter, so as long as he survives defensively, he'll be a good backup. Walker is a good second baseman for the Pirates.
Third base:
Pedro Alvarez, 24, also had a good rookie season for the Pirates, hitting .256 with 21 doubles, 16 homers, 64 RBI, and a .326 OBPin 95 games. Between the minors and majors he hit 29 homers and drove in 117 runs. It all sounds good, right? Well, there are a couple of worrying factors. Alvarez needed a .341 BAbip to his .256. He had a crazy 14.8 HR/FB. And, he posted just a 55 IP% and a 14% LD% while striking out 30.8% of the time (league average 18.5%). Alvarez can obviously improve as a hitter, but if his BAbip and HR/FB return to neutral while his IP% and LD% remain the same, Alvarez could conceivably hit .200 with just 15 homers for a full season. But, considering that Alvarez hit 40 homers in 192 minor league games, you have to think that either a) he just hits the ball in a way that more of his fly balls go for home runs and/or b) he's a good enough hitter to adjust. He posted just a .938 Fld% defensively, but he showed outstanding range. He has tremendous talent. He'll be backed up by Rodriguez. Alvarez is a good talent, and hopefully he'll make strides in 2011.
Shortstop:
Ronny Cedeno, who recently turned 28, had a pretty terrible year in 2010, hitting .256 with 29 doubles, 8 homers, 38 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and just a .293 OBP in 139 games. He had a .315 BAbip, so it's not like he was unlucky, but he had just a 13% LD%. He walked just 4.6% of his plate appearances, compared to the league average of 8.5%. Cedeno is essentially a singles hitter who doesn't walk. Defensively, he was slightly below-average with a .969 Fld%, but he showed above-average range. He's a decent player at best. He'll be backed up by Rodriguez. Cedeno is nothing more than a halfway decent player for the Pirates.
Left field:
Tabata was another solid rookie for the Pirates. The 22 year old hit .299 with 21 doubles, 4 homers, 35 RBI, 19 stolen bases, and a .346 OBP in 102 games. He did have a .339 BAbip and a 17% LD%, but he had a great 78% IP% and a 3.3 HR/FB. When everything evens out, he'll still prove to be a good hitter. He was outstanding defensively in left field posting a .995 Fld% with great range and 5 outfield assists. He finished 8th in the Rookie of the Year voting. Tabata is a good player. He'll be backed up by Matt Diaz , John Bowker, and Rodriguez. Matt Diaz hit .250 for the Braves in '10 with 17 doubles, 7 homers, 31 RBI, and a .302 OBP in 84 games. He isn't very good defensively, considering he posted a below-average .979 Fld% and below-average range in left field in '10 (he has a .981 career Fld% in right field and 1.000 in 2 games in centerfield). He's a decent backup. Bowker hit .219 in '10 with 8 doubles, 5 homers, 21 RBI, and a .281 OBP in 67 games between the Giants and Pirates. He posted a .985 Fld% in the outfield. He's good enough to be a 5th outfielder. Jose Tabata is another budding young star for the Pirates.
Centerfield:
24 year old star Andrew McCutchen had a great season for the Pirates, hitting .286 with 35 doubles, 16 homers, 56 RBI, 94 runs, 33 stolen bases, and a .365 OBP in 154 games. He had a .311 BAbip, so he wasn't overly lucky. He's for real. He had a league-average .987 Fld%, but he showed great range. He'll be backed up by Diaz Bowker, and Rodriguez, McCutchen is a really great player and the only real established star on the Pirates.
Right field:
29 year old Garrett Jones proved to be a good RBI guy for the Pirates in '10, hitting .247 with 34 doubles, 21 homers, 86 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and a .306 OBP in 158 games. He did this all despite a .274 BAbip, and he still had a decent 8.1 BB% despite his .306 OBP, so as his BAbip rebounds, his OBP will in addition to his BA. He's a solid player. He posted a bad .971 Fld% in right field, but he showed great range, so maybe that will improve in 2011. Garrett Jones is a good player for the Pirates.
Starting rotation:
26 year old James McDonald was solid in 11 starts for the Pirates (he had been 0-1 with an 8.22 ERA in 4 appearances for the Dodgers), going 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA, and 61 K's compared to 24 walks in 64 IP. He allowed 59 hits, 8.3 per 9, and 3 homers, a great ratio of 0.4 per 9. McDonald was particularly great in September, going 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in 6 starts. McDonald also did all this while allowing a .320 BAbip, although he did allow just a 2.9% HR/FB. When everything evens out, McDonald will probably do slightly better, but a few more of his earned runs will come from homers. McDonald is an awful hitter, considering he hit just .050 in '10 with no RBI and 1 sac bunt. McDonald is a pretty good pitcher, and he is considered to be the de facto ace of the Pirates.
Arbitration winner Ross Ohlendorf went through a bizarre season in 2010. The 28 year old right-hander went just 1-11, but with a 4.07 ERA, 79 K's, and 44 walks in 21 starts and 108.1 IP. He allowed 106 hits, an 8.8 H/9, and 12 homers, a 1.2 HR/9. He was a decent pitcher. Ohlendorf missed time with a shoulder injury that ended his season. It's not like he was lucky or unlucky- he had a .289 BAbip, a 6.3% HR/FB, and a 19% LD%. He's not a good pitcher, but he might be good enough to place second among Pirates starting pitchers in ERA for years to come. Ohlendorf certainly wasn't decent with the bat, hitting .077 with no RBI and 2 sac bunts. Ohlendorf is just a decent pitcher for the Pirates.
Lefty Paul Maholm, who will turn 29 in June, has been a Pirate his whole career. He's had his good moments (10 wins in 2007, 9-9 record, 3.71 ERA, 206.1 IP in '08), and his bad moments, such as his 2010 season. He went 9-15 with a 5.10 ERA, and 102 K's compared to 62 walks in 32 starts and 185.1 IP. His main problem was hits allowed. He allowed 15 homers, a fine ratio of 0.7 per 9, but 228 hits, which amounts to an 11.1 H/9. But, that was because of a .332 BAbip despite an above-average ground ball rate (1.04 GB/FB, 1.56 GO/AO) and a league-average 19% LD%. It was the same story for Maholm in 2009, when he posted a 4.44 ERA. In his outstanding 2008, Maholm had a .294 BAbip. He even had an 8.0% HR/FB that season (compared to 5.2% in '09 and 5.1% in '10), although his 17% LD% was better than his 19% LD% in both '09 and '10. Could Maholm possibly return to his 3.71 ERA that year? I would seriously doubt it, considering Walker and Alvarez aren't good defensively at key defensive positions, but hey, you never know. Maholm's ERA will certainly rebound back into the mid-4.00's in 2011 if not better. Accordingly, Bill James projects a 4.52 ERA for him. He's certainly a decent pitcher. With the bat, Maholm is pretty bad, 'boasting' a .089 BA, no RBI, and 7 sac bunts. Maholm is a decent pitcher for the Pirates.
Hoping to shore up their pitching staff, the Pirates signed a pitcher from the Padres to a two-year, 6 million dollar contract. Unfortunately, they signed Kevin Correia. You may be surprised at Correia's stats while pitching half of his games at Petco Park. He went 10-10 with a terrible 5.40 ERA that was worse than AJ Burnett, 115 K's, and 64 walks in 26 starts, 2 RA's, and 145 IP. He allowed 152 hits, a 9.4 H/9, and 20 homers, a 1.2 HR/9. He was downright awful. Neutralized, he managed a 6.53 ERA. Oh my gosh. Were the Pirates paying any attention? In 2010, he had a .306 BAbip, compared to .298 in 2009, when he had a 3.91 ERA (4.62 neutralized). His LD% remained exactly the same at 21%. The only major difference was in HR/FB, 5.6% in '09 compared to 9.5% in '10. Still, that shouldn't raise his ERA by 1.49! There's absolutely no reason to believe Correia will rebound in 2011. At least he's a decent hitting pitcher, considering he hit .136 in '10 with 5 RBI and 6 sac bunts. Correia was a terrible signing for the Pirates, and they'll be lucky if he posts a 5.00 ERA in '11.
There are two candidates for the final spot in the Pirates' rotation: Charlie Morton and Scott Olsen.
Morton, a 27 year old right-hander, seems to be exactly what you'd expect from a Pirates pitcher. Brace yourself for his 2010 stats: 2-12 record, 7.57 ERA, 59 K's, 26 walks, 112 hits allowed (12.7 H/9), and 15 homers allowed (1.7 HR/9) in 17 starts and 79.2 IP (he pitched to a 3.82 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts and 80 IP). Oh my gosh. He managed a -2.4 WAR for the Pirates. That takes some skill (or lack thereof). He even had a total -2.7 WAR after a -0.3 offensive WAR (.038 BA, 0 RBI, 1 sac bunt). But, you know what's funny? Morton had a decent 4.55 ERA in 18 starts in 2009. What the heck happened? Actually, exactly what you'd expect: an increase in BAbip, HR/FB, and LD%. In 2009, Morton had a .316 BAbip against him. After looking at that, you would think that maybe his BAbip would return to neutral and he'd post maybe a 4.35 ERA in '10 with average luck. Of course, that didn't happen. Instead, his BAbip hit rock-bottom, ballooning to .361. That explains his 12.7 H/9 in '10 compared to 9.5 in '09. And why did that happen? Because of an increase in LD%. Morton had a good 17% LD% in 2009, but a terrible 22% LD% in '10. You have to hope that Morton will be able to fix that in 2011 (presumably by keeping the ball away from the middle of the plate). Of course though, that wasn't his only problem. He allowed a 10.7 HR/FB (further enhancing my hypothesis that he allowed too many hittable pitches). There's a good amount of luck involved with HR/FB (there's a 1 inch [or less] difference on the bat between a homer and a fly ball to the track), but I feel like the increase in LD% coupled with his increase in HR/FB has to be because of too many hittable pitches allowed. Looking at the Pitch F/X data at http://brooksbaseball.net, it's no hypothesis, I'm right (I did only look at a sample of games). He did improve in September, leading to a 4.09 ERA, 0.5 HR/9, and a 21% LD% compared to a 10.03 ERA, a 2.5 HR/9, and a 23 LD% the rest of the season (his BAbip decreased to .337 from .376 ). Morton was straightened out after coming back to the minors (although his first start back in late August was a complete disaster, considering he allowed 7 ER in 3.1 IP). Maybe Morton won't post a low-4.00's ERA in 2011, but you have to be encouraged by his September stats. If the Pirates have the guts to look past his 7.57 ERA in '10, Morton should certainly be considered for the 5th starter job.
It's not as though Olsen's 2010 stats blew Morton out of the water. Olsen was certainly better, but better is a comparative word, and it's certainly not hard to be better than a 7.57 ERA. Even a pitcher with a 7.56 ERA would be better than Morton. Anyway, Olsen, a lefty, had a pretty bad year for the Nats in '10, going 4-8 with a 5.56 ERA, 53 K's, and 27 walks in 15 starts, 2 RA's, and 81 IP. He allowed 93 hits, a 10.3 H/9, and 10 homers, a 1.1 HR/9. Olsen's last decent season was 2008, when he went 8-11 with 4.20 ERA in 33 starts for the Marlins. He went 2-4 with a 6.03 ERA in 11 starts for the Nats in 2009. How good is Olsen, really? Olsen had a .317 BAbip is '10, compared to a .348 in 2009 and .261 in 2008. His LD% over that time frame were 20% in 2010, 23% in 2009 and 19% in 2008. What those stats tell us is that Olsen didn't allow a 10.4 H/9 because of a bad line drive rate, so he was a bit unlucky, but even with a 9.0 H/9, how much better would his ERA have been? 5.00? He also had a below-average 7.1 HR/FB in '10, so that's not what made him so bad in 2010! Olsen isn't a good pitcher. He needed a .261 BAbip to post a 4.20 ERA in '10, and add .40 to any pitcher's BAbip, and his ERA will certainly go up at least half a run. If his BAbip and HR/FB are neutral in 2010, I would expect something like a 4.70 ERA if he wins the 5th starter job. Olsen doesn't impress with the bat either, considering he hit just .083 in '10 with no RBI and 4 sac bunts. At least he's only signed for one year, and for just $550,000 (there's a 4 million dollar team option in 2012). Olsen might be able to be a decent 5th starter for the Pirates if given the chance.
We'll have to see how they perform in Spring Training, but I feel like Morton has the edge. He has the potential to be an effective starter with average luck while Olsen, with average luck, would be worse than him. But, Morton still has options left, and Olsen is signed to a major league contract. Morton will need an exceptional spring training to take the job from Olsen to begin the year. Olsen has made just 6 professional relief appearances, so it's unclear whether he could adapt to being a long reliever. I feel like somehow, some way, Charlie Morton will end up as the Pirates' 5th starter, if not out of spring training then at some point during the year. He's just a better pitcher. It's unfortunate that due to bad luck he's never gotten to prove that.
Bullpen:
I usually make the position of closer its own category, but although Joel Hanrahan has been named the closer over Evan Meek to begin the year, it's unclear whether he will retain that role. There's certainly more uncertainty for the Pirates at closer than for your average team.
Withholding his ERA for a second, Hanrahan, a 29 year old right-hander, seemed to have a great year based on several numbers. He went 4-1 with 100 K's, an impressive out of the bullpen and which amounted to a 12.9 K/9, 26 walks, which came out to a 3.4 BB/9, a 3.85 K/BB (strikeout to walk) ratio, 58 hits allowed, a 7.5 H/9, and 6 homers, a decent 0.8 HR/9, 18 holds, and 6 saves in 72 RA's and 69.2 IP. He sounds like an awfully good pitcher. What would you think his ERA was? At least under 3.00, right? In reality, Hanrahan had a 3.62 ERA. I guess you have to point to his homer rate as the reason he posted his 3.62 ERA, but otherwise, he was downright incredible. He allowed a 7.5 H/9 despite a .329 BAbip. The .329 BAbip was just Hanrahan being unlucky because he had an 18% LD%. Hanrahan allowed just a 59% IP%, 10% lower than the MLB average of 69%, which is what you would think made him so good. He allowed his 0.8 HR/9 because of a 7.5% HR/FB that was right around the league average of 7.7%. He still sounds like a pitcher who should have posted an ERA under 3.00 to me. Maybe if his BAbip goes down to .300, that would be enough to get him to a high 2.00's ERA. Hanrahan maybe gives up a few too many homers to be a top-flight closer, but he seems like he would do a decent job in the role, at least getting 20 saves.
Meek, who will turn 28 in May, would seem like a great closer candidate if I withhold a different stat for a moment. Meek went 5-4 with a 2.14 ERA, 31 walks, a 3.5 BB/9, 53 hits allowed, which comes out to a great 6.0 H/9, 5 homers, which is good for a 0.6 HR/9, 15 holds, and 4 saves in 70 RA's and 80 IP. Of course, I omitted strikeouts. Meek's 70 K's amounted to a 7.9 K/9, which is fine, but not great at all. How was he so effective without striking so many guys out? The reason was that he had just a .226 BAbip against him in '10. But, it certainly wasn't purely out of luck. Meek allowed just a 15% LD%, and he allowed quite a few ground balls, posting a 1.29 GB/FB ratio and a 1.93 GO/AO ratio. Meek just doesn't allow many hard-hit balls. Going along with that, Meek allowed a slightly-below average 6.5% HR/FB, close enough to neutral to make me think that Meek just didn't allow many hard-hit balls to the outfield, either. Meek gets around the relatively low strikeout rate by not allowing solid contact. He's certainly a good pitcher.
Hanrahan is more of a strikeout pitcher than Meek, but Meek allows very few hard-hit balls, similar to most closers. Hanrahan seems like he could be a decent closer, but Meek could be a very good closer, albeit unorthodox because of his somewhat low strikeout rate. Both of them could be effective closers, but considering that Meek allows quite a less homers than Hanrahan and is a year younger than him, he'll be the better closer long term. I would expect Hanrahan to have a decent start as the Pirates' closer in '11, but after several blown saves because of long home runs, Meek takes over and pitches pretty well in the role. The loser for the job should be an effective setup man.
28 year old right-hander Chris Resop's 2010 stats weren't anything special. He went 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA, 26 K's, 13 walks, and 5 holds in 23 RA's and 21 IP between the Braves and Pirates. But, he allowed 15 hits for a great 6.0 H/9, and just 1 homer for a 0.4 HR/9. He had no noticable flaw! It's not like Hanrahan where he had somewhat of a problem in terms of homers. What's going on here? Well, notice I said that he spent 2010 between the Braves and Pirates. He appeared in 1 RA for the Braves and 22 for the Pirates. He had a great 1.89 ERA for the Pirates. Clearly he had a great year for the Pirates, but how did he manage an overall ERA nearly 2.00 higher than his ERA with the Pirates if he made just one relief appearance for the Braves? Get ready for Resop's stats on the Braves: in 1 two-inning relief appearance, he allowed 5 hits, 5 runs, 5 earned runs, and 3 walks while striking out 2 batters. That comes out to a scary 22.50 ERA. Again, take out that one appearance and he has a 1.89 ERA. Just looking at these stats, you have to say that Resop is a very good reliever who just had the worst night of his life in a relief appearance for the Braves. Is that really the case? During that one appearance for the Braves, Resop was the most unlucky pitcher in baseball, allowing an unbelievable .556 BAbip, not too far off from being double the MLB average of .300. Wow. But, after that, he allowed just a .220 BAbip. His luck completely flipped. There's a good stat and a bad stat for Resop's time on the Pirates: he allowed just a 53% IP%, which is outstanding, but he allowed a 21% LD%. In terms of BAbip, Resop was certainly very lucky to allow a .220 BAbip on the Pirates despite a 21% LD%. Resop's BAbip should come back to earth in 2011, but if he keeps up that 53% IP% he should be fine. I doubt Resop will put up a sub-2.00 ERA for the Pirates in 2011, but he has a could chance of putting up a sub-3.00 ERA.
So far, I've mentioned three relievers for the Pirates, and all of them are pretty good. Will Chris Leroux continue the trend? Well, Leroux, who will turn 27 in April, didn't exactly put up the kind of numbers you want to see- in 23 RA's and 22.2 IP, he went 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA, 22 K's, 14 walks, 28 hits allowed (11.1 H/9), 1 homer allowed (0.4 HR/9), and 3 holds. He certainly didn't put up good stats. But, stats can certainly be deceiving (see Charlie Morton). Leroux allowed a crazy .397 BAbip. That's just unlucky for him, right? He'll be a decent pitcher when his BAbip returns to neutral in 2011, right? Leroux was certainly unlucky, but he did allow a 23% LD%. You can't like that. Compounding the problem is that Leroux allowed just a 3.3 HR/FB. At least he allowed a pretty good 65 IP%, but you still can't like Leroux very much. Unless he really improves his LD%, you have to expect at least a 4.50 ERA from Leroux (unless of course, he gets really lucky). Leroux isn't a good reliever, and it's not a good thing for the Pirates that he's going to be an important part of their bullpen, considering who I'm going to mention next.
Before I mentioned Leroux, maybe you could have argued that the Pirates are not that bad of a team. That have a decent offense, a defense that has shown great range and could improve mightily in 2011, a decent rotation, and a couple of pretty good relievers at the back end of the bullpen. But then, there was Leroux, and also there's Daniel McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, and Jose Ascanio, two of which will make the Pirates out of spring training. Even if you say that middle relievers are replaceable, that doesn't matter unless you can replace them, which the Pirates can't do right now.
McCutchen, a 28 year old right-hander, is exactly what you'd expect from a Pirates reliever. In 2010, he appeared in 28 games, 9 of which were starts, going 2-5 with a 6.12 ERA, 38 K's (just a 5.1 K/9), 28 walks (3.7 BB/9), 83 hits allowed (11.0 H/9), and 13 homers allowed (1.7 HR/9) in 67.2 IP. (He didn't record any holds. He had a 6.49 ERA as a starter and a 5.47 ERA as a reliever. He was just plain awful. You have to wonder how the heck he managed an 11.0 H/9 with a .303 BAbip and a 15% LD%. At least his 1.7 HR/9 was because of a 10.0 HR/FB. Still, come on! McCutchen is not a good pitcher at all. I'll be shocked if he posts a sub-5.00 ERA in '11.
I can't say Karstens was that bad in 2010. THe 28 year old righty went 3-10 with a 4.92 ERA, 72 K's, 27 walks, 146 hits allowed (10.7 H/9), and 21 homers allowed (1.5 HR/9) in 26 starts, 7 RA's and 122.2 IP. He actually was halfway decent as a starter, posting a 4.78 ERA, but allowing a 5.87 ERA as a reliever. Karsten is a 5th starter-type pitcher, but he has no place in the Pirates' rotation right now. Karstens 2011 stats as a starter are pretty much what he is with neutral luck. He allowed a .309 BAbip, so he was a little bit unlucky, but not too much at all. He allowed a good 17% LD%, but a 77% IP%. He did allow a 10.1 HR/FB, so at neutral he would probably post closer to a 1.0 HR/9. With a .300 BAbip and a 7.7 HR/9, maybe Karstens posts a 4.50 ERA. That's the best he could do. But, that would be as a starter. In his career, he has a 4.92 ERA as a starter, but a 5.63 ERA in relief. Karstens hasn't gotten comfortable pitching out of the bullpen, even after 39 career RA's. Unless he finally adjusts to the bullpen, expect Karstens to post an ERA in the 5.00's in '11, unless he's given a chance to start.
Ascanio, who will turn 26 in May, missed all of '10 with a torn labrum. He appeared in just 2 minor league relief appearances, posting a 0.00 ERA and 7 K's in 2 RA's and 3 IP. Ascanio last appeared in the majors in 2009, going 0-2 with a 4.00 ERA, 20 K's, 9 walks, and 1 hold in 16 RA's and 18 IP between the Cubs and Pirates. He allowed 22 hits, an 11.0 H/9, and 1 homer, a 0.5 HR/9. Those are pretty good stats. But, when you consider he had a crazy .412 BAbip, you better be amazed. He even had a great 15% LD% and he still had that .412 BAbip. Despite that, he still put up a 4.00 ERA. You have to impressed. He did allow a 3.8% HR/FB, so he was lucky in that regard, but he also allowed a good 59% IP%. If those were his 2010 numbers, I would expect big things from him in 2011. But, he was a pretty good reliever then, not necessarily now. Could he be a good reliever for the Pirates in 2011? We'll have to see if he's healthy in spring training. If healthy, Ascanio could be an effective reliever for the Pirates in 2011.
Overview:
Simply put, the Pirates are not a good team. But, they're not as bad as they were in 2010. Their young players are developing, and maybe in a couple years, when their top pitching prospects such as Jameson Taillon arrive in the majors, they will contend. Not in 2010, though. They're not that bad of an offensive team, but they're below-average defensively, their rotation is decent at best, their bullpen is filled with holes after Meek, Hanrahan, and Resop, and even among those three, they don't have a proven closer. They'll improve in 2011, but it's hard not to improve on their 105-loss 2010.
2010 record: 57-105
Prediction: 63-99, 6th in NL Central
The Pirates will contend if... most of the following things happen: either Snyder or Doumit steps up at catcher, Overbay puts up decent numbers, Walker, Alvarez, and Tabata continue to improve, Cedeno survives offensively, Jones drives in 100 runs, McCutchen goes 20-30 (20 homers, 30 stolen bases), McDonald puts up a 3.50 ERA over a full season, Maholm and Ohlendorf put up low-4.00's ERA, Correia posts a mid-4.00's ERA, the 5th starter (Morton or Olsen) puts up a sub-5.00 ERA, Hanrahan or Meek steps up as the closer, and the bullpen as a whole posts a sub-4.00 ERA.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Friday, February 18, 2011
2011 MLB Preview: San Francisco Giants
The defending champion San Francisco Giants seemed primed to build a dynasty. After watching them dismantle the Texas Rangers, at least we all thought so. But, 2011 is a new season, with a reinvigorated division and an even stronger Phillies team standing in their way. Can they put everything together again or will they be one-and-done?
Catcher:
After winning the NL Rookie of the Year in 2010, the expectations will be high for Buster Posey. Posey is motivated to exceed those expectations. Nobody expected anybody to steal the NL Rookie of the Year award from Jason Heyward. Posey did just that. Posey had a great rookie season, hitting .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in just 108 games. He slugged .505, way above the league average of .415, and his .862 OPS makes the league average of .748 pale in comparison. And it's not like he was extremely lucky, considering he posted a .315 BAbip, which was above-average, but certainly reasonable and relatively common. Defensively, Posey posted a just below-average .991 Fld%, but he posted a 37% CS% which ranked 4th in the NL. He had an amazing year, and accordingly, he finished 11th in the NL MVP voting. At age 23, it's only uphill from here for Posey. He'll be backed up by Eli Whiteside. Whiteside isn't a completely helpless player at the bat, considering he hit .238 in '10 with 6 doubles, 4 homers, and 10 RBI, although he posted just a .299 OBP in 56 games and 140 PA. Defensively, he posted a .994 Fld% in '10 with a 29% CS%, so he's pretty good defensively as well. Posey is just an amazing player at catcher for the Giants.
First base:
After the 2009 season, Aubrey Huff was a forgotten player. He had hit a career-low .241 in '09 with just a .310 OBP. The Giants signed him from the scrap-heap for just 3 million dollars on a one-year deal. What a move by them. Huff hit .290 in '10 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, 100 runs, 5 triples, 7 stolen bases (0 CS), and a career-high .385 OBP in 157 games. Obviously the career-high in OBP at age 33 was pretty amazing, but even crazier was his 7 for 7 in stolen base attempts one season after going 0 for 6. He also walked nearly as many times as he struck out, 83 to 91. He also did it with a .303 BAbip, essentially neutral. In his first career postseason appearance, Huff hit .268 with 1 homer and 8 RBI in 15 games. He also posted an above-average .995 Fld% defensively at first base. Huff had a really great year in '10 and was rewarded with a two-year, 20 million dollar contract with a 10 million dollar team option for the third year. But, will he be anywhere near as good over the next three years as he was in 2010? Everyone's gut feeling seems to be no. Bill James has him hitting .269 in '11 with 19 homers, 75 RBI, and just a .348 OBP in 548 plate appearances (he had 668 in '10). Huff might play pretty well in 2011, but the Giants definitely made a mistake by signing Huff to a two-year deal. There's absolutely no guarantee that he his production won't drop off in 2011 and never return to its previous levels. And, where will his signing leave top prospect Brandon Belt? Belt, a 2009 5th-round pick as a first baseman who will turn 23 in April, is considered by almost everyone to be the Giants' top prospect. He had a huge season in the minors in 2010, advancing from High-A all the way to Triple-A and hitting .352 overall with 43 doubles, 23 homers, 112 RBI, 10 triples, 99 runs, 22 stolen bases, and a .455 OBP in 136 games. He did hit just .229 in 13 Triple-A games, with 4 homers, 10 RBI, and a .393 OBP. Belt posted a .992 Fld% at first base in '10, and a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 11 games in RF and 3 games in LF. But, in addition to Huff at first base, the Giants have established players Mark DeRosa in left field, and playoff hero Cody Ross, the Giants have no position they can start Belt at, barring an injury. But, the good news for the Giants is that the contracts of both DeRosa and Ross run out after 2011, so they could let at least one of them walk, opening up a starting job for Belt in the outfield (I bet they let DeRosa walk). Belt probably needs a full season at Triple-A anyway. Huff's backup at the big league level will be Travis Ishikawa. Ishikawa hit .266 in '10 with 11 doubles, 3 homers, 22 RBI, and a .320 OBP in 116 games, but just 176 PA. He posted an 1.000 Fld% in 73 games at first base in '10, and has a .995 Fld% there for his career. He's a fine backup. Aubrey Huff appears to have at least one more decent year in him, but he could be a problem for the Giants in 2012.
Second base:
When healthy, Freddy Sanchez will be the Giants' second baseman in '10. But, the 33 year old ex-batting champ (2006) has played in just 111 games each of the past two seasons, so his backups have certainly gotten their share of AB's. In 2010, Sanchez missed until May 19th with shoulder injuries. But, in those 11 games when he was healthy, he did pretty well, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP. He had a .330 BAbip, so you would think he was lucky, but it was actually because he had an above-average LD% and an above-average IP%. (Also, realize that he has a .324 career BAbip.) Defensively at second base, he posted a very good .991 Fld%, but he did show poor range. When healthy, Sanchez is a good presence at the top of the Giants' lineup. Sanchez will be backed up by Mike Fontenot and Emmanuel Burriss (if he makes the team). Fontenot, acquired in a trade with the Cubs (through waivers) in August, did make a few starts for the Cubs the past couple of years. Fontenot, who will turn 31 in June, hit .283 between the Cubs and Giants in '10 with 13 doubles, 1 homer, 25 RBI, 3 triples, and a .331 OBP in 103 games, but just 261 PA. He made just 55 starts, but he made 100 starts in 2009. In '09, he hit .236 with 22 doubles, 9 homers, 43 RBI, and a .301 OBP in 135 games. That amounted to an even 0.0 WAR. At least he's not negative (well, not until you factor in his defense that year). Fontenot is an average defender at second base and third base (in addition to being an awful shortstop), but he has shown bad range. He's certainly not a great backup. Burriss spent his age 25 season of 2010 primarily in the minors after spending most of '08 and '09 and the big league roster. In limited time at the majors in '10, he hit an even .400 (2 for 5), while hitting .279 with 11 doubles, 0 homers, 23 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 72 minor league games. He missed quite a big of time when he re-injured a fracture of a bone in his foot that also cost him most of 2009. IN 2009 before the injury, Burriss hit .238 with 6 doubles, 0 homers, 13 RBI, 11 stolen bases, and just a .292 OBP in 61 games (220 PA). In '08, he hit .283 with 6 doubles, 1 homers, 18 RBI, 3 stolen bases, and a .357 OBP in 95 games. In 163 major league games, he had hit .264 with 12 doubles, 1 homer, 31 RBI, 24 stolen bases, and a .329 OBP. He's a below-average defender with below-average range at both second base and shortstop. If Sanchez does get hurt, I don't think either Fontenot or Burriss would be an adequate replacement. They are halfway decent as backups. Sanchez is a pretty good player, but he has to stay healthy in 2011.
Third base:
The enigma that is Pablo Sandoval is lined up to play third base for the Giants in '11. In 2009, "Kung Fu Panda", just 22 years old, burst onto the scene, hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI, 79 runs, and a .387 OBP in 153 games. He even managed to post an above-average .960 Fld% at third base, albeit with below-average range. He even finished 7th in the NL MVP voting. He was already considered a star. Apparently those considerations were premature. Sandoval was nothing special in 2010, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. (He did lead the league in a stat for the first time: double plays grounded into.) He posted a .961 Fld%, above-average again, and with slightly better, but still below-average range. I could probably talk about Sandoval's fielding, but it's pretty clear that Sandoval will always be a below-average defender. Let's talk about the more pressing issue, Sandoval's hitting. How did his BA decrease from .330 to .268? How did his homers free-fall from 25 to 13? What the heck happened? I hate to say it, but Sandoval didn't have an off-year in '10, he had the kind of season he should of had all along. Why did Sandoval hit .330 with 25 homers in '09? A .350 BAbip and a 10.4% HR/FB despite a league-average 19% LD%. In 2010, he had a .291 BAbip and a 5.5% HR/FB even though he had a 20% LD%. He just got lucky in 2009. I was shocked to see that Bill James had him hitting .308 with 18 homers, 78 RBI, and a .363 OBP. I respectfully disagree. Sandoval isn't as bad as he was in 2010, but I can't see him hitting anything above .300, maybe with 15 homers and 70 RBI. (Fine, those stats are pretty similar, but they certainly make a difference.) Sandoval is a decent player, but he's not a star. Sandoval will be backed up by Fontenot and Ryan Rohlinger (if he makes the team). Rohlinger, 27, has nothing left to prove in the minors. In his second season at Triple-A, Rohlinger hit .311 with 11 doubles, 8 homers, 48 RBI, and a .392 OBP in 77 games while posting an above-average .978 Fld% at SS and a ridiculous .984 Fld% at third. He has shown great range at third and decent range at short. Rohlinger's career high in games played in the majors was 21 in 2008, and although he has a .136 BA, he deserves an extended chance. He could be an effective backup. Pablo Sandoval is overrated, but he should bounce back a bit in 2011.
Shortstop:
This offseason, the Giants Miguel Tejada, who will turn 37 in May, to a 1 year, 6.5 million dollar contract, replacing World Series MVP Edgar Renteria. Tejada isn't the player he used to be. He hasn't hit 20 homers or driven in 100 runs since 2006. But, he's still a decent player. In 2010, he hit .269 between the Orioles and Padres with 26 doubles, 15 homers, 71 RBI, and a .312 OBP in 156 games. He had a .280 BAbip, just a bit unlucky (with a .318 BAbip in 2009, he hit .313). He posted a great .987 Fld% at shortstop, but of course with below-average range. (He posted just a .947 Fld% at third base, although he did show decent range). He's lost most of his power, but he's still a pretty good player offensively and he's decent defensively. He'll be backed up by Fontentot, Burriss, and Rohlinger (maybe more like Fontenot and Burriss or Rohlinger). Miguel Tejada is still a decent player, and he'll do OK for the Giants.
Left field/Right field:
The Giants could go with various outfield alignments, nearly all of which featuring Andres Torres in centerfield. But, there's some debate as to left field and right field. There are three players for two spots: Cody Ross, Mark DeRosa, and Pat Burrell. Ross, 30, hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 stolen bases, and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and Giants. He hit .294 with 5 homers and 10 RBI, and a .390 OBP in the playoffs, winning the NLCS MVP. His decrease in the homers in the regular season was due to a decrease in HR/FB from 9.9% to 7.5% (his lowest since '05). His career HR/FB is 10.4%. Around 7.7% is neutral, but obviously that mixes in power hitters and the Jason Kendall's of the world who have hit 20 homers since '02. Ross averaged 18 homers per season from '06 to '09, so I would expect Ross to hit right around 20 homers in 2011 (Bill James says 18). He'll almost definitely start somewhere. He has a .976 career Fld% in both left field and right field (.994 in centerfield where he has played the most games), but he has more experience in right field, so he'll probably start in right field. DeRosa lasted until May 8th in '10 before going down with a wrist injury. He's questionable for the start of spring training. He hit .268 with a .348 OBP, averaging 26 doubles, 22 homers, and 82 RBI from '08 to '09. But, DeRosa is 36, so that just might have been his late prime, and now it's over. DeRosa plays better in right field than left field, but of course he plays everywhere, and he still has a .991 Fld% in left field (compared to .997 in right), so he would do fine defensively. But, is he any better than Burrell? If you make him the starter in left field, than he can't be the utility player he's been his whole career! He could theoretically get starts in left field, second base, shortstop, and third base as a utility player (in which case you could insert DeRosa into the backups list for each of those positions). But, before we decide whether to commit DeRosa to left field, let's look at Burrell's stats. Burrell, 34 now, hit .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between the Rays and Giants. He posted a slightly below-average .984 Fld% in left field with just below-average range, so he's not a liability defensively. I think that you don't know what you're going to get from DeRosa offensively after wrist surgery, so the Giants should start Ross in right and Burrell in left. DeRosa, if healthy, would still get close to 400 PA as a utilityman. The Giants will have to decide their alignment, but that's what I think. The backup in right field will be Nate Schierholtz. Schierholtz, who turned 27 on February 15th, hit .242 in '10 with 13 doubles, 3 homers, 17 RBI, 3 triples, 4 stolen bases, and a .311 OBP in 137 games (252 PA). In 109 games, but just 41 starts in right field, Schierholtz posted a .992 Fld% with 7 outfield assists. He's very good defensively. The Giants' alignment in left field and right field is a bit complicated, but they have three capable players in Ross, DeRosa, and Burrell who would be fine starters.
Centerfield:
Andres Torres appeared out of nowhere in 2010 to have a very good season as the Giants' starting centerfielder, hitting .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 stolen bases, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. He posted a .995 Fld% in 84 games in centerfield, and he was perfect in 70 combined games in left field and right field. Not only did he post great fielding percentages, but also, he showed great range. And he did all of this in his first full season in the majors at age 32. Torres spent 12 seasons in the minors (1998-2009), playing in just 164 major league games over that time, but the Giants finally gave him his first real chance, and he did not disappoint. Torres did have a .331 BAbip, but you have to root for this guy that he'll be able to keep that up. He also did have a 21% LD% in '10, so it's not that far-fetched. I'm sure that he'll be a good player both offensively and of course defensively again in 2011. Torres will be backed up by Aaron Rowand. Rowand, now 33, is not the same player anymore and he has no versatility (he hasn't played any defensive position besides centerfield since 2004), but he's signed for two more years at 24 million dollars per year. Rowand hit just .230 in '10, with 12 doubles, 11 homers, 34 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and just a .281 OBP in 105 games. At least he's still good defensively (1.000 Fld% in centerfield in '10 with decent range). Interestingly, Torres' possible future replacement is going to Triple-A in , 2011 Darren Ford. Ford hit .251 at Double-A Richmond with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 40 RBI, 9 triples, 37 stolen bases, and a .315 OBP in 113 games. Ford stole an incredible 198 bases from '06 to '08 at the three A levels (SS-A, Low-A, High-A). He posted a decent .985 Fld% in centerfield with good range. He could become a younger Torres with more speed and less power. With Rowand on the team, Ford couldn't even make the Giants if he hit .800 in spring training. Andres Torres is a nice story for the Giants, and that great story should continue in 2011.
Starting Rotation:
In 2010, Giants ace Tim Lincecum had one of the best off-years you will ever see, going 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA, and 231 K's (most in the NL) compared to 76 walks in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He allowed 194 hits, 8.2 per 9, and 18 homers, 0.8 per 9. He had a increase in hits, homers, and walks allowed, while having a decrease in strikeouts compared to his Cy Young years of '08 and '09. Those factors caused his ERA to jump by nearly a full run. His BAbip went up to a career-high .315, so he was a bit unlucky, and his HR/FB went up to career-high 6.8%. If those numbers return down to his career averages of .301 and 5.2% respectively, Lincecum's ERA will certainly be back in the 2.00's. Lincecum was pretty lucky during his Cy Young years, having a 3.9 HR/FB, but he's certainly a good enough pitcher to still post an ERA in the 2.00's without being lucky. He was certainly good enough to lead the Giants to the championship, going 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA in the playoffs. He's certainly a top-end pitcher, and you have to remember that he won't even turn 27 until June and he's won two Cy Youngs. He's not as good with the bat, hitting just .104, but he had 5 RBI and 13 sac bunts. Lincecum is a very good ace for the Giants.
Matt Cain wasn't too shabby either, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA in '10 with 177 K's compared to 61 walks in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He allowed 181 hits, a 7.3 H/9, and 22 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. He arguably had a better season than Lincecum (but, he didn't lead the league in any categories). He was lucky, allowing just a .254 BAbip, but then again, he allowed just a 17% LD%. In the playoffs, Cain was unbelievable, going 2-0 with a perfect 0.00 ERA in 3 starts. Cain is a solid pitcher, and he's young too, just 26 years old and already in his 6th season in the majors. He hit .106 with 1 RBI and 10 sac bunts. Cain is a great number 2 starter for the Giants.
How many good young pitchers do the Giants have? 28 year old southpaw Jonathan Sanchez had his best season in 2010, going 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA, and 205 K's compared to 96 walks (most in the NL) in 33 starts, 1 RA, and 193.1 IP. He allowed just 142 hits, just 6.6 per 9, best in the NL, but 21 homers, a 1.0 HR/9. Why did Sanchez improve so much from his 4.24 ERA in 2009? Well, for starters he had a .255 BAbip, easily the best of his career, but he wasn't lucky. He had a 17% LD%, and just a 60% IP% (league average 69%). He was pretty much unhittable, except when he did get hit, he got hit pretty hard, allowing 21 homers despite an 8.6 HR/FB that wasn't that much above average. Still, he's a good pitcher. He didn't do all that well in the playoffs, going 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA. He hit .138 with 3 RBI and 7 sac bunts. Sanchez is a very good Jackson is a very good third starter for San Francisco.
The youngest of this group, 21 year old Madison Bumgarner, might end up being the best of them (that's a tall order with Lincecum and Cain among the group). He had a very good rookie season, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA, and 86 K's compared to 26 walks in 18 starts and 111 IP. He allowed 119 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.6 per 9, and 11 homers, 0.9 per 9. How was he so successful with the bad hit and homer rates? An 81.7% strand rate (runners left on base at the end of innings). Based on that, you would think that Bumgarner isn't that good. But, he had a .314 BAbip despite a 17% LD%. A few too many ground balls went through the hole, but when they did, Bumgarner buckled down and got through the inning. When everything evens out, Bumgarner could be posting a 3.00 or less ERA for years to come. He went 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA in 4 postseason games, 3 starts. Maybe that's what he could be. Bumgarner hit .179 with 3 RBI and 3 sac bunts. Expect Madison Bumgarner to take another step forward in 2011.
Barry Zito is a unique pitcher in the Giants' rotation. He's the only one over 30 (he'll turn 33 in May). He's the only one making over 10 million dollars (18.5 million). He's the only one the couldn't manage a winning record in '10 (9-14). And, he's the only one that posted an ERA over 4.00 (4.15). Not a good combination at all. He hasn't managed a winning record or an ERA under 4.00 while on the Giants. He hasn't isn't even pitched a 200-inning season! In 2010, he came 2/3 of an inning short, pitching 199.1 innings. Putting all the stats together, Zito went 9-14 with a 4.15 ERA, and 150 K's compared to 84 walks in 33 starts, 1 RA, and 199.1 IP. He allowed 184 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and 20 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. He put up those numbers with a .286 BAbip, a 6.5 HR/FB, and a 19% LD%. He's just a league-average pitcher at this point in his career. But, he's the Giants' 5th starter, and a very good 5th starter at that. How many 5th starters post a low-4.00's ERA? He is a very good bunter- he hit just .118 with 2 RBI, but with 14 sac bunts. Zito is ridiculously overpaid, but he's a good 5th starter for the Giants.
Bullpen:
Jeremy Affeldt was one of the best middle relievers in baseball in 2009, posting a 1.73 ERA in 74 RA's. Different story in 2010. He posted a 4.14 ERA in 53 appearances. What was the difference? Well, first of all, the ERA's aren't the full story. In 2009, he went 2-2 with that 1.73 ERA, 55 K's, 31 walks, and an incredible 33 holds in 74 RA's and 62.1 IP. He allowed 42 hits, a 6.1 H/9, and 3 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. In 2010, he went 4-3 with a 4.14 ERA, 44 K's, 24 walks, just 7 holds, and 4 saves in 53 RA's and 50 IP. He allowed 56 hits, a 10.1 H/9, and 4 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. The obvious difference is hits allowed. His H/9 jumped by 4.0! Was it BAbip? Heck yes. His BAbip jumped from .250 to .356, from very lucky, to very unlucky. Let's say he has a .300 BAbip. Average out his H/9's from '09 and '10, and he'll have an 8.1 H/9, which is fine. But, was there any reason his BAbip went up so sharply? Yes, his ground ball rate. Ground balls are more likely to be fielded (not necessarily cleanly) than line drives and fly balls. In 2009, he had a 1.91 GB/FB ratio, a 3.09 GO/AO (ground out divided by air out) ratio, and a 30% DP% (percentage of double plays out of double play opportunities). In 2010, those numbers went down to 1.40, 1.97, and just 8% respectively. Can Affleldt get to his previous ground ball rates. That remains to be seen. At least his ERA wasn't that bad in 2010.
Sergio Romo was the exact opposite of Affeldt, posting his best numbers in 2010. Romo, who will turn 28 on March 4th, went 5-3 in '10 with a 2.18 ERA, 70 K's, just 14 walks, and 22 holds in 68 RA's and 62 IP. He allowed 46 hits, 6.7 per 9, but 6 homers, 0.9 per 9. The homers were his only real problem. Romo had a .265 BAbip, so you would think that he was a bit lucky, but that was not the case. He had such a low BABip because he had such a low LD%, 12%. Romo's LD% was an average 19% when he had a 3.97 ERA in 45 games, but it was 12% also in 2008 when he posted a 2.12 ERA in 29 games. The Giants have to hope that it's not an every-other-year kind of pattern and more like a trend he'll continue for at least the next couple of years. If so, Romo will be a very good reliever, continuously posting ERA's in the 2.00's. If not, expect an Affeldt-esque decline in 2011.
30 year old right-hander Santiago Casilla also had a great year for the Giants in 2010, going 7-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 56 K's, 26 walks, 11 holds and 2 saves in 52 RA's and 55.1 IP. He allowed 40 hits and 2 homers, which amount to a 6.5 H/9 and a great 0.3 HR/9 respectively. But, how did he have such a great year after posting a 4.76 ERA from '07 to '09 with the Athletics? First of all, we have to look at would expect a huge increase in ERA in 2011. From '07 to '09, he had a .323 BAbip, and he had a .346 BAbip from '08 to '09. His luck improved in 2010, so he had a much better year. But, there's a couple of problems for Casilla going forward. In 2010, he was lucky enough to have a 3.3 HR/FB. He could allow double as many homers (0.6 HR/9) if his HR/FB returns to neutral. His 60% IP% was outstanding, but he had a bad 21% LD%. Casilla was pretty hard to hit, but when he got hit, he got hit hard. But, lucky for him, a bunch of those line drives and fly balls landed in the gloves of fielders. Don't expect him to be so lucky in 2011. I would expect a jump in ERA of at least 1.00 to 2.95 for Casilla in 2011.
33 year old lefty Javier Lopez was a complete disaster in 2009, posting a 9.26 ERA. But, he had posted a 2.43 ERA in 2008, and he rebounded in a big way in 2010, posting a 4-2 record, 2.34 ERA, 38 K's, 20 walks, and 5 holds in 77 RA's between the Pirates and Giants, and 57.2 IP. He allowed 50 hits, a 7.8 H/9, and 2 homers, a 0.3 HR/9. Well, he had a .279 BAbip, compared to a .413 BAbip in 2009, and right along with his .280 BAbip in 2008. His IP% was a bit high at 73%, but that was not because of a high line drive rate (15% in '10), but because of a high ground ball rate (1.62 GB/FB, 2.27 GO/AO). Lopez has posted an ERA of 2.70 or lower every season in which he has posted a 1.50 or better GB/FB. He was lucky in terms of HR/FB (3.3% including 0.0% on the Giants) and XBH% (28%, just 8% on the Giants; league average 34%), but with a good ground ball rate he'll be fine. If not, expect an ERA of at least 3.00 if not higher (hopefully not 9.00).
29 year old right-hander Ramon Ramirez posted his 3rd straight season with an ERA under 3.00 in '10 going 1-3 with a 2.99 ERA, 46 K's (a 6.0 K/9), 27 walks (a 3.5 BB/9) 7 holds, and 3 saves in 69 RA's between the Red Sox and Giants and 69.1 IP. He allowed 52 hits, 6.8 per 9, but 7 homers, 0.9 per 9. Considering his high walk and homer rates, and his low strikeout rate, he needed every bit of his .223 BAbip. He did allow a good 17% LD%, but he allowed a 71% IP%, so that's worrisome. His luck will end in 2011, and I'm sure his streak of three straight years with an ERA under 3.00 will end as well.
And finally there is lefty Dan Runzler, who will turn 26 on March 30th. He went 3-0 in '10 with a 3.03 ERA, 37 K's, 20 walks, and 4 holds in 41 RA's and 32.2 IP. He allowed 29 hits and 1 homer, an 8.0 H/9 and a 0.3 HR/9 respectively. He had a .346 BAbip, so you have to expect him to improve in 2011. Not the ball got into play that much- he allowed just a 56% IP% and a 17% LD%. Look for Runzler to improve in 2011 and possibly become the most effective lefty in the Giants' bullpen.
Closer:
Brian Wilson, who will turn 29 on March 16th, had an incredible season as the Giant's closer in 2010, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, just 26 walks, and an impressive 48 saves, tops in the NL in 70 RA's and 74.2 IP. He allowed 62 hits, a 7.5 H/9, and just 3 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. He was just plain outstanding. He also posted a perfect 0.00 ERA in 10 postseason relief appearances. He even was unlucky during the regular season, allowing a .314 BAbip, but he overcame it with by posting just a 60% IP% and a 15% LD%. He did allow just a 3.8 HR/FB, so maybe he'll blow an extra save or two in 2011, but he's still a great closer. Wilson is one of the best closers in baseball today.
Overview: http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=3055834605645541006
The Giants have a pretty good lineup and an outstanding rotation. But, their bullpen is certainly a question mark, besides Wilson at the end. At least a couple of those guys in the bullpen will significantly worse ERA's, and can the Giants overcome that? For the most part, they should be able to. It's hard not to label the Giants as favorites in the NL West.
2010: 92-70, first in NL West, World Series Champions
Prediction: 91-71, 1st in NL West
Catcher:
After winning the NL Rookie of the Year in 2010, the expectations will be high for Buster Posey. Posey is motivated to exceed those expectations. Nobody expected anybody to steal the NL Rookie of the Year award from Jason Heyward. Posey did just that. Posey had a great rookie season, hitting .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in just 108 games. He slugged .505, way above the league average of .415, and his .862 OPS makes the league average of .748 pale in comparison. And it's not like he was extremely lucky, considering he posted a .315 BAbip, which was above-average, but certainly reasonable and relatively common. Defensively, Posey posted a just below-average .991 Fld%, but he posted a 37% CS% which ranked 4th in the NL. He had an amazing year, and accordingly, he finished 11th in the NL MVP voting. At age 23, it's only uphill from here for Posey. He'll be backed up by Eli Whiteside. Whiteside isn't a completely helpless player at the bat, considering he hit .238 in '10 with 6 doubles, 4 homers, and 10 RBI, although he posted just a .299 OBP in 56 games and 140 PA. Defensively, he posted a .994 Fld% in '10 with a 29% CS%, so he's pretty good defensively as well. Posey is just an amazing player at catcher for the Giants.
First base:
After the 2009 season, Aubrey Huff was a forgotten player. He had hit a career-low .241 in '09 with just a .310 OBP. The Giants signed him from the scrap-heap for just 3 million dollars on a one-year deal. What a move by them. Huff hit .290 in '10 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, 100 runs, 5 triples, 7 stolen bases (0 CS), and a career-high .385 OBP in 157 games. Obviously the career-high in OBP at age 33 was pretty amazing, but even crazier was his 7 for 7 in stolen base attempts one season after going 0 for 6. He also walked nearly as many times as he struck out, 83 to 91. He also did it with a .303 BAbip, essentially neutral. In his first career postseason appearance, Huff hit .268 with 1 homer and 8 RBI in 15 games. He also posted an above-average .995 Fld% defensively at first base. Huff had a really great year in '10 and was rewarded with a two-year, 20 million dollar contract with a 10 million dollar team option for the third year. But, will he be anywhere near as good over the next three years as he was in 2010? Everyone's gut feeling seems to be no. Bill James has him hitting .269 in '11 with 19 homers, 75 RBI, and just a .348 OBP in 548 plate appearances (he had 668 in '10). Huff might play pretty well in 2011, but the Giants definitely made a mistake by signing Huff to a two-year deal. There's absolutely no guarantee that he his production won't drop off in 2011 and never return to its previous levels. And, where will his signing leave top prospect Brandon Belt? Belt, a 2009 5th-round pick as a first baseman who will turn 23 in April, is considered by almost everyone to be the Giants' top prospect. He had a huge season in the minors in 2010, advancing from High-A all the way to Triple-A and hitting .352 overall with 43 doubles, 23 homers, 112 RBI, 10 triples, 99 runs, 22 stolen bases, and a .455 OBP in 136 games. He did hit just .229 in 13 Triple-A games, with 4 homers, 10 RBI, and a .393 OBP. Belt posted a .992 Fld% at first base in '10, and a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 11 games in RF and 3 games in LF. But, in addition to Huff at first base, the Giants have established players Mark DeRosa in left field, and playoff hero Cody Ross, the Giants have no position they can start Belt at, barring an injury. But, the good news for the Giants is that the contracts of both DeRosa and Ross run out after 2011, so they could let at least one of them walk, opening up a starting job for Belt in the outfield (I bet they let DeRosa walk). Belt probably needs a full season at Triple-A anyway. Huff's backup at the big league level will be Travis Ishikawa. Ishikawa hit .266 in '10 with 11 doubles, 3 homers, 22 RBI, and a .320 OBP in 116 games, but just 176 PA. He posted an 1.000 Fld% in 73 games at first base in '10, and has a .995 Fld% there for his career. He's a fine backup. Aubrey Huff appears to have at least one more decent year in him, but he could be a problem for the Giants in 2012.
Second base:
When healthy, Freddy Sanchez will be the Giants' second baseman in '10. But, the 33 year old ex-batting champ (2006) has played in just 111 games each of the past two seasons, so his backups have certainly gotten their share of AB's. In 2010, Sanchez missed until May 19th with shoulder injuries. But, in those 11 games when he was healthy, he did pretty well, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP. He had a .330 BAbip, so you would think he was lucky, but it was actually because he had an above-average LD% and an above-average IP%. (Also, realize that he has a .324 career BAbip.) Defensively at second base, he posted a very good .991 Fld%, but he did show poor range. When healthy, Sanchez is a good presence at the top of the Giants' lineup. Sanchez will be backed up by Mike Fontenot and Emmanuel Burriss (if he makes the team). Fontenot, acquired in a trade with the Cubs (through waivers) in August, did make a few starts for the Cubs the past couple of years. Fontenot, who will turn 31 in June, hit .283 between the Cubs and Giants in '10 with 13 doubles, 1 homer, 25 RBI, 3 triples, and a .331 OBP in 103 games, but just 261 PA. He made just 55 starts, but he made 100 starts in 2009. In '09, he hit .236 with 22 doubles, 9 homers, 43 RBI, and a .301 OBP in 135 games. That amounted to an even 0.0 WAR. At least he's not negative (well, not until you factor in his defense that year). Fontenot is an average defender at second base and third base (in addition to being an awful shortstop), but he has shown bad range. He's certainly not a great backup. Burriss spent his age 25 season of 2010 primarily in the minors after spending most of '08 and '09 and the big league roster. In limited time at the majors in '10, he hit an even .400 (2 for 5), while hitting .279 with 11 doubles, 0 homers, 23 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 72 minor league games. He missed quite a big of time when he re-injured a fracture of a bone in his foot that also cost him most of 2009. IN 2009 before the injury, Burriss hit .238 with 6 doubles, 0 homers, 13 RBI, 11 stolen bases, and just a .292 OBP in 61 games (220 PA). In '08, he hit .283 with 6 doubles, 1 homers, 18 RBI, 3 stolen bases, and a .357 OBP in 95 games. In 163 major league games, he had hit .264 with 12 doubles, 1 homer, 31 RBI, 24 stolen bases, and a .329 OBP. He's a below-average defender with below-average range at both second base and shortstop. If Sanchez does get hurt, I don't think either Fontenot or Burriss would be an adequate replacement. They are halfway decent as backups. Sanchez is a pretty good player, but he has to stay healthy in 2011.
Third base:
The enigma that is Pablo Sandoval is lined up to play third base for the Giants in '11. In 2009, "Kung Fu Panda", just 22 years old, burst onto the scene, hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI, 79 runs, and a .387 OBP in 153 games. He even managed to post an above-average .960 Fld% at third base, albeit with below-average range. He even finished 7th in the NL MVP voting. He was already considered a star. Apparently those considerations were premature. Sandoval was nothing special in 2010, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. (He did lead the league in a stat for the first time: double plays grounded into.) He posted a .961 Fld%, above-average again, and with slightly better, but still below-average range. I could probably talk about Sandoval's fielding, but it's pretty clear that Sandoval will always be a below-average defender. Let's talk about the more pressing issue, Sandoval's hitting. How did his BA decrease from .330 to .268? How did his homers free-fall from 25 to 13? What the heck happened? I hate to say it, but Sandoval didn't have an off-year in '10, he had the kind of season he should of had all along. Why did Sandoval hit .330 with 25 homers in '09? A .350 BAbip and a 10.4% HR/FB despite a league-average 19% LD%. In 2010, he had a .291 BAbip and a 5.5% HR/FB even though he had a 20% LD%. He just got lucky in 2009. I was shocked to see that Bill James had him hitting .308 with 18 homers, 78 RBI, and a .363 OBP. I respectfully disagree. Sandoval isn't as bad as he was in 2010, but I can't see him hitting anything above .300, maybe with 15 homers and 70 RBI. (Fine, those stats are pretty similar, but they certainly make a difference.) Sandoval is a decent player, but he's not a star. Sandoval will be backed up by Fontenot and Ryan Rohlinger (if he makes the team). Rohlinger, 27, has nothing left to prove in the minors. In his second season at Triple-A, Rohlinger hit .311 with 11 doubles, 8 homers, 48 RBI, and a .392 OBP in 77 games while posting an above-average .978 Fld% at SS and a ridiculous .984 Fld% at third. He has shown great range at third and decent range at short. Rohlinger's career high in games played in the majors was 21 in 2008, and although he has a .136 BA, he deserves an extended chance. He could be an effective backup. Pablo Sandoval is overrated, but he should bounce back a bit in 2011.
Shortstop:
This offseason, the Giants Miguel Tejada, who will turn 37 in May, to a 1 year, 6.5 million dollar contract, replacing World Series MVP Edgar Renteria. Tejada isn't the player he used to be. He hasn't hit 20 homers or driven in 100 runs since 2006. But, he's still a decent player. In 2010, he hit .269 between the Orioles and Padres with 26 doubles, 15 homers, 71 RBI, and a .312 OBP in 156 games. He had a .280 BAbip, just a bit unlucky (with a .318 BAbip in 2009, he hit .313). He posted a great .987 Fld% at shortstop, but of course with below-average range. (He posted just a .947 Fld% at third base, although he did show decent range). He's lost most of his power, but he's still a pretty good player offensively and he's decent defensively. He'll be backed up by Fontentot, Burriss, and Rohlinger (maybe more like Fontenot and Burriss or Rohlinger). Miguel Tejada is still a decent player, and he'll do OK for the Giants.
Left field/Right field:
The Giants could go with various outfield alignments, nearly all of which featuring Andres Torres in centerfield. But, there's some debate as to left field and right field. There are three players for two spots: Cody Ross, Mark DeRosa, and Pat Burrell. Ross, 30, hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 stolen bases, and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and Giants. He hit .294 with 5 homers and 10 RBI, and a .390 OBP in the playoffs, winning the NLCS MVP. His decrease in the homers in the regular season was due to a decrease in HR/FB from 9.9% to 7.5% (his lowest since '05). His career HR/FB is 10.4%. Around 7.7% is neutral, but obviously that mixes in power hitters and the Jason Kendall's of the world who have hit 20 homers since '02. Ross averaged 18 homers per season from '06 to '09, so I would expect Ross to hit right around 20 homers in 2011 (Bill James says 18). He'll almost definitely start somewhere. He has a .976 career Fld% in both left field and right field (.994 in centerfield where he has played the most games), but he has more experience in right field, so he'll probably start in right field. DeRosa lasted until May 8th in '10 before going down with a wrist injury. He's questionable for the start of spring training. He hit .268 with a .348 OBP, averaging 26 doubles, 22 homers, and 82 RBI from '08 to '09. But, DeRosa is 36, so that just might have been his late prime, and now it's over. DeRosa plays better in right field than left field, but of course he plays everywhere, and he still has a .991 Fld% in left field (compared to .997 in right), so he would do fine defensively. But, is he any better than Burrell? If you make him the starter in left field, than he can't be the utility player he's been his whole career! He could theoretically get starts in left field, second base, shortstop, and third base as a utility player (in which case you could insert DeRosa into the backups list for each of those positions). But, before we decide whether to commit DeRosa to left field, let's look at Burrell's stats. Burrell, 34 now, hit .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between the Rays and Giants. He posted a slightly below-average .984 Fld% in left field with just below-average range, so he's not a liability defensively. I think that you don't know what you're going to get from DeRosa offensively after wrist surgery, so the Giants should start Ross in right and Burrell in left. DeRosa, if healthy, would still get close to 400 PA as a utilityman. The Giants will have to decide their alignment, but that's what I think. The backup in right field will be Nate Schierholtz. Schierholtz, who turned 27 on February 15th, hit .242 in '10 with 13 doubles, 3 homers, 17 RBI, 3 triples, 4 stolen bases, and a .311 OBP in 137 games (252 PA). In 109 games, but just 41 starts in right field, Schierholtz posted a .992 Fld% with 7 outfield assists. He's very good defensively. The Giants' alignment in left field and right field is a bit complicated, but they have three capable players in Ross, DeRosa, and Burrell who would be fine starters.
Centerfield:
Andres Torres appeared out of nowhere in 2010 to have a very good season as the Giants' starting centerfielder, hitting .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 stolen bases, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. He posted a .995 Fld% in 84 games in centerfield, and he was perfect in 70 combined games in left field and right field. Not only did he post great fielding percentages, but also, he showed great range. And he did all of this in his first full season in the majors at age 32. Torres spent 12 seasons in the minors (1998-2009), playing in just 164 major league games over that time, but the Giants finally gave him his first real chance, and he did not disappoint. Torres did have a .331 BAbip, but you have to root for this guy that he'll be able to keep that up. He also did have a 21% LD% in '10, so it's not that far-fetched. I'm sure that he'll be a good player both offensively and of course defensively again in 2011. Torres will be backed up by Aaron Rowand. Rowand, now 33, is not the same player anymore and he has no versatility (he hasn't played any defensive position besides centerfield since 2004), but he's signed for two more years at 24 million dollars per year. Rowand hit just .230 in '10, with 12 doubles, 11 homers, 34 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and just a .281 OBP in 105 games. At least he's still good defensively (1.000 Fld% in centerfield in '10 with decent range). Interestingly, Torres' possible future replacement is going to Triple-A in , 2011 Darren Ford. Ford hit .251 at Double-A Richmond with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 40 RBI, 9 triples, 37 stolen bases, and a .315 OBP in 113 games. Ford stole an incredible 198 bases from '06 to '08 at the three A levels (SS-A, Low-A, High-A). He posted a decent .985 Fld% in centerfield with good range. He could become a younger Torres with more speed and less power. With Rowand on the team, Ford couldn't even make the Giants if he hit .800 in spring training. Andres Torres is a nice story for the Giants, and that great story should continue in 2011.
Starting Rotation:
In 2010, Giants ace Tim Lincecum had one of the best off-years you will ever see, going 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA, and 231 K's (most in the NL) compared to 76 walks in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He allowed 194 hits, 8.2 per 9, and 18 homers, 0.8 per 9. He had a increase in hits, homers, and walks allowed, while having a decrease in strikeouts compared to his Cy Young years of '08 and '09. Those factors caused his ERA to jump by nearly a full run. His BAbip went up to a career-high .315, so he was a bit unlucky, and his HR/FB went up to career-high 6.8%. If those numbers return down to his career averages of .301 and 5.2% respectively, Lincecum's ERA will certainly be back in the 2.00's. Lincecum was pretty lucky during his Cy Young years, having a 3.9 HR/FB, but he's certainly a good enough pitcher to still post an ERA in the 2.00's without being lucky. He was certainly good enough to lead the Giants to the championship, going 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA in the playoffs. He's certainly a top-end pitcher, and you have to remember that he won't even turn 27 until June and he's won two Cy Youngs. He's not as good with the bat, hitting just .104, but he had 5 RBI and 13 sac bunts. Lincecum is a very good ace for the Giants.
Matt Cain wasn't too shabby either, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA in '10 with 177 K's compared to 61 walks in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He allowed 181 hits, a 7.3 H/9, and 22 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. He arguably had a better season than Lincecum (but, he didn't lead the league in any categories). He was lucky, allowing just a .254 BAbip, but then again, he allowed just a 17% LD%. In the playoffs, Cain was unbelievable, going 2-0 with a perfect 0.00 ERA in 3 starts. Cain is a solid pitcher, and he's young too, just 26 years old and already in his 6th season in the majors. He hit .106 with 1 RBI and 10 sac bunts. Cain is a great number 2 starter for the Giants.
How many good young pitchers do the Giants have? 28 year old southpaw Jonathan Sanchez had his best season in 2010, going 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA, and 205 K's compared to 96 walks (most in the NL) in 33 starts, 1 RA, and 193.1 IP. He allowed just 142 hits, just 6.6 per 9, best in the NL, but 21 homers, a 1.0 HR/9. Why did Sanchez improve so much from his 4.24 ERA in 2009? Well, for starters he had a .255 BAbip, easily the best of his career, but he wasn't lucky. He had a 17% LD%, and just a 60% IP% (league average 69%). He was pretty much unhittable, except when he did get hit, he got hit pretty hard, allowing 21 homers despite an 8.6 HR/FB that wasn't that much above average. Still, he's a good pitcher. He didn't do all that well in the playoffs, going 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA. He hit .138 with 3 RBI and 7 sac bunts. Sanchez is a very good Jackson is a very good third starter for San Francisco.
The youngest of this group, 21 year old Madison Bumgarner, might end up being the best of them (that's a tall order with Lincecum and Cain among the group). He had a very good rookie season, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA, and 86 K's compared to 26 walks in 18 starts and 111 IP. He allowed 119 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.6 per 9, and 11 homers, 0.9 per 9. How was he so successful with the bad hit and homer rates? An 81.7% strand rate (runners left on base at the end of innings). Based on that, you would think that Bumgarner isn't that good. But, he had a .314 BAbip despite a 17% LD%. A few too many ground balls went through the hole, but when they did, Bumgarner buckled down and got through the inning. When everything evens out, Bumgarner could be posting a 3.00 or less ERA for years to come. He went 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA in 4 postseason games, 3 starts. Maybe that's what he could be. Bumgarner hit .179 with 3 RBI and 3 sac bunts. Expect Madison Bumgarner to take another step forward in 2011.
Barry Zito is a unique pitcher in the Giants' rotation. He's the only one over 30 (he'll turn 33 in May). He's the only one making over 10 million dollars (18.5 million). He's the only one the couldn't manage a winning record in '10 (9-14). And, he's the only one that posted an ERA over 4.00 (4.15). Not a good combination at all. He hasn't managed a winning record or an ERA under 4.00 while on the Giants. He hasn't isn't even pitched a 200-inning season! In 2010, he came 2/3 of an inning short, pitching 199.1 innings. Putting all the stats together, Zito went 9-14 with a 4.15 ERA, and 150 K's compared to 84 walks in 33 starts, 1 RA, and 199.1 IP. He allowed 184 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and 20 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. He put up those numbers with a .286 BAbip, a 6.5 HR/FB, and a 19% LD%. He's just a league-average pitcher at this point in his career. But, he's the Giants' 5th starter, and a very good 5th starter at that. How many 5th starters post a low-4.00's ERA? He is a very good bunter- he hit just .118 with 2 RBI, but with 14 sac bunts. Zito is ridiculously overpaid, but he's a good 5th starter for the Giants.
Bullpen:
Jeremy Affeldt was one of the best middle relievers in baseball in 2009, posting a 1.73 ERA in 74 RA's. Different story in 2010. He posted a 4.14 ERA in 53 appearances. What was the difference? Well, first of all, the ERA's aren't the full story. In 2009, he went 2-2 with that 1.73 ERA, 55 K's, 31 walks, and an incredible 33 holds in 74 RA's and 62.1 IP. He allowed 42 hits, a 6.1 H/9, and 3 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. In 2010, he went 4-3 with a 4.14 ERA, 44 K's, 24 walks, just 7 holds, and 4 saves in 53 RA's and 50 IP. He allowed 56 hits, a 10.1 H/9, and 4 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. The obvious difference is hits allowed. His H/9 jumped by 4.0! Was it BAbip? Heck yes. His BAbip jumped from .250 to .356, from very lucky, to very unlucky. Let's say he has a .300 BAbip. Average out his H/9's from '09 and '10, and he'll have an 8.1 H/9, which is fine. But, was there any reason his BAbip went up so sharply? Yes, his ground ball rate. Ground balls are more likely to be fielded (not necessarily cleanly) than line drives and fly balls. In 2009, he had a 1.91 GB/FB ratio, a 3.09 GO/AO (ground out divided by air out) ratio, and a 30% DP% (percentage of double plays out of double play opportunities). In 2010, those numbers went down to 1.40, 1.97, and just 8% respectively. Can Affleldt get to his previous ground ball rates. That remains to be seen. At least his ERA wasn't that bad in 2010.
Sergio Romo was the exact opposite of Affeldt, posting his best numbers in 2010. Romo, who will turn 28 on March 4th, went 5-3 in '10 with a 2.18 ERA, 70 K's, just 14 walks, and 22 holds in 68 RA's and 62 IP. He allowed 46 hits, 6.7 per 9, but 6 homers, 0.9 per 9. The homers were his only real problem. Romo had a .265 BAbip, so you would think that he was a bit lucky, but that was not the case. He had such a low BABip because he had such a low LD%, 12%. Romo's LD% was an average 19% when he had a 3.97 ERA in 45 games, but it was 12% also in 2008 when he posted a 2.12 ERA in 29 games. The Giants have to hope that it's not an every-other-year kind of pattern and more like a trend he'll continue for at least the next couple of years. If so, Romo will be a very good reliever, continuously posting ERA's in the 2.00's. If not, expect an Affeldt-esque decline in 2011.
30 year old right-hander Santiago Casilla also had a great year for the Giants in 2010, going 7-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 56 K's, 26 walks, 11 holds and 2 saves in 52 RA's and 55.1 IP. He allowed 40 hits and 2 homers, which amount to a 6.5 H/9 and a great 0.3 HR/9 respectively. But, how did he have such a great year after posting a 4.76 ERA from '07 to '09 with the Athletics? First of all, we have to look at would expect a huge increase in ERA in 2011. From '07 to '09, he had a .323 BAbip, and he had a .346 BAbip from '08 to '09. His luck improved in 2010, so he had a much better year. But, there's a couple of problems for Casilla going forward. In 2010, he was lucky enough to have a 3.3 HR/FB. He could allow double as many homers (0.6 HR/9) if his HR/FB returns to neutral. His 60% IP% was outstanding, but he had a bad 21% LD%. Casilla was pretty hard to hit, but when he got hit, he got hit hard. But, lucky for him, a bunch of those line drives and fly balls landed in the gloves of fielders. Don't expect him to be so lucky in 2011. I would expect a jump in ERA of at least 1.00 to 2.95 for Casilla in 2011.
33 year old lefty Javier Lopez was a complete disaster in 2009, posting a 9.26 ERA. But, he had posted a 2.43 ERA in 2008, and he rebounded in a big way in 2010, posting a 4-2 record, 2.34 ERA, 38 K's, 20 walks, and 5 holds in 77 RA's between the Pirates and Giants, and 57.2 IP. He allowed 50 hits, a 7.8 H/9, and 2 homers, a 0.3 HR/9. Well, he had a .279 BAbip, compared to a .413 BAbip in 2009, and right along with his .280 BAbip in 2008. His IP% was a bit high at 73%, but that was not because of a high line drive rate (15% in '10), but because of a high ground ball rate (1.62 GB/FB, 2.27 GO/AO). Lopez has posted an ERA of 2.70 or lower every season in which he has posted a 1.50 or better GB/FB. He was lucky in terms of HR/FB (3.3% including 0.0% on the Giants) and XBH% (28%, just 8% on the Giants; league average 34%), but with a good ground ball rate he'll be fine. If not, expect an ERA of at least 3.00 if not higher (hopefully not 9.00).
29 year old right-hander Ramon Ramirez posted his 3rd straight season with an ERA under 3.00 in '10 going 1-3 with a 2.99 ERA, 46 K's (a 6.0 K/9), 27 walks (a 3.5 BB/9) 7 holds, and 3 saves in 69 RA's between the Red Sox and Giants and 69.1 IP. He allowed 52 hits, 6.8 per 9, but 7 homers, 0.9 per 9. Considering his high walk and homer rates, and his low strikeout rate, he needed every bit of his .223 BAbip. He did allow a good 17% LD%, but he allowed a 71% IP%, so that's worrisome. His luck will end in 2011, and I'm sure his streak of three straight years with an ERA under 3.00 will end as well.
And finally there is lefty Dan Runzler, who will turn 26 on March 30th. He went 3-0 in '10 with a 3.03 ERA, 37 K's, 20 walks, and 4 holds in 41 RA's and 32.2 IP. He allowed 29 hits and 1 homer, an 8.0 H/9 and a 0.3 HR/9 respectively. He had a .346 BAbip, so you have to expect him to improve in 2011. Not the ball got into play that much- he allowed just a 56% IP% and a 17% LD%. Look for Runzler to improve in 2011 and possibly become the most effective lefty in the Giants' bullpen.
Closer:
Brian Wilson, who will turn 29 on March 16th, had an incredible season as the Giant's closer in 2010, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, just 26 walks, and an impressive 48 saves, tops in the NL in 70 RA's and 74.2 IP. He allowed 62 hits, a 7.5 H/9, and just 3 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. He was just plain outstanding. He also posted a perfect 0.00 ERA in 10 postseason relief appearances. He even was unlucky during the regular season, allowing a .314 BAbip, but he overcame it with by posting just a 60% IP% and a 15% LD%. He did allow just a 3.8 HR/FB, so maybe he'll blow an extra save or two in 2011, but he's still a great closer. Wilson is one of the best closers in baseball today.
Overview: http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=3055834605645541006
The Giants have a pretty good lineup and an outstanding rotation. But, their bullpen is certainly a question mark, besides Wilson at the end. At least a couple of those guys in the bullpen will significantly worse ERA's, and can the Giants overcome that? For the most part, they should be able to. It's hard not to label the Giants as favorites in the NL West.
2010: 92-70, first in NL West, World Series Champions
Prediction: 91-71, 1st in NL West
Monday, February 14, 2011
2011 MLB Preview: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies took a step back in '10, finishing 3rd in the NL West one year after winning the wild card and nearly stealing the division crown from the Dodgers in the final series of the year. Will they be back in the playoffs in 2011?
Catcher:
After Chris Iannetta hit just .228 in '09, the Rockies signed Miguel Olivo in the offseason. The Rockies let Olivo leave as a free agent (he was traded to the Blue Jays for a second before his 2011 option was declined, which I talked about here), giving Iannetta another chance. In a backup role in '10, Ianneta hit just .197 with 6 doubles, 9 homers, 27 RBI, and a .318 OBP in 61 games. He posted just a .985 Fld% and a 22% CS%. Besides the power, Iannetta was pretty terrible, even for a backup catcher. He was really unlucky, having just a .212 BAbip in '10. In '09, he had just a .245 BAbip. Iannetta's last good offensive season was 2008, when he hit .264 with 22 doubles, 18 homers, 65 RBI, and a .390 OBP in 107 games. He had a .311 BAbip that year. If his luck returns to normal, maybe Ianneta could get back to those numbers, at least the .264 BA, and probably the 18 homers as well. 2008 was also the only year where Iannetta got over 400 plate appearances, so maybe with extended time he would be able to sort himself out anyway. Iannetta had a .306 career BA in the minors including a .339 BA at Triple-A. I doubt he'll ever hit .300, but how does he own just a .234 BA in the majors? You have to think that Iannetta is better than he's played in the majors, and maybe in 2011, at age 28 (on April 8th), he finally proves that. His 2010 performance defensively was a bit of an aberration, considering he has a .994 career Fld% at catcher, although he does have a 22% career CS%. Maybe 2010 is when Iannetta finally brakes out.
1st base:
Longtime Rockie Todd Helton isn't the player he used to be. But, with 3 years left on his enormous contract, Helton is untradable and the Rockies will start him at first base for the 13th straight year. In 2010, despite playing his home games at Coors Field, Helton hit just .256 with 18 doubles, 8 homers, 37 RBI, but a .362 OBP in 118 games. Each of those numbers were career-lows for Helton for seasons in which he played in 85 or more games. He had a .307 BAbip, which is still slightly above-average, but the 2nd lowest of his career since 1998. Defensively, Helton posted a slightly below-average .992 Fld% at first base. At age 37, the end will come soon for Helton. If the Rockies could, they would no doubt acquire a first baseman, and Michael Young, who now wants out of Texas, might be that guy. But, for right now, the Rockies are stuck with the declining Helton at first base. Or are they? This offseason they signed Ty Wiggington to a 2-year deal (at age 33) with an option for a third year. Wiggington does play all over the field (he's played everyone except centerfield, pitcher, and catcher in the majors, and even caught a minor league game), but you have to think the Rockies will the 2010 All-Star a significant amount of at-bats (maybe around 400). Could some of those at-bats come at first base? Again, Helton isn't the same player and he's 37 years old, so he'll need quite a few days off. When they do give him days off, Wiggington should be the starter. Helton appeared in just 118 games in '10, and maybe he'll appear in even fewer in 2011. Wiggington will also get at-bats at 3rd base, and sparingly at the other positions. (Wiggington is below-average defensively across the board, but less so at 1st and 3rd.) Another utilityman that will play first base is Jose Lopez. With just 1 year left under team control, the Mariners decided to trade the 27 year old infielder and get a prospect for him, rather than keep him for 2011 and get a probably get a compensation draft pick. (The prospect the Mariners acquired, Chaz Roe, posted a 5.98 ERA at Triple-A in '10 and just one season on his minor league resume with an ERA under 4.00.) Lopez had a good season in '09, hitting .272 with 42 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, but just a .303 OBP. Without even knowing the stats, I'm sure you can guess what I'm about to say. Lopez's low OBP finally caught up to his in 2010, when he did something few others have done: post a .270 OBP in 622 plate appearances (the league average was .319). He hit .239 with 29 doubles, 10 homers and 58 RBI. He was awful, posting a negative WAR. But, he did have just a .254 BAbip, so he isn't quite as bad as he seemed to be in '10. Also, considering his power, Lopez will be a great bench player for the Rockies. And that's just what his offensive contribution will be to the team. He has shown incredible range defensively at both 2nd and 3rd base, although his career Fld% is a bit below-average at 2nd. He's been average at first base and survived at shortstop. He'll be a really valuable bench player for the Rockies, considering his versatility and ability defensively, and his power. Tood Helton career is on a downward spiral from which it will never recover, but his backups at first base, Ty Wiggington and Jose Lopez, are good enough players that the Rockies will be able to keep Helton well rested while still receiving good production at first base.
Second base:
According to kffl.com, Eric Young was supposed to be traded to the Texas Rangers for Michael Young last week, but he failed his physical because of a stress fracture in his right tibia (in his leg) that he suffered in May and the Rangers pulled out of the deal. Let's discuss Eric Young. He's a speedster. Even if his doesn't miss any additional time, you still have to wonder- could his injury affect his speed? He stole 13 bases in 38 games after he came back from the injury. This is from a player who once stole 87 bases in the minors. Without speed, Young is nothing. The 25 year old owns just a .245 BA in his 81 game major league career, with a .318 OBP. He has just 1 homer. His only redeeming quality offensively is his speed: he has 21 stolen bases (10 CS). In the minors, he had 313 stolen bases in 7 seasons. He hit just 27 home runs. Great move by the Rangers not trading for Young. If he has lost a step, he'll be a nobody. Young is also a disaster defensively. He owns just a .963 Fld% at second base including just a .958 Fld% in '10 (league average: .985), and a .917 Fld% in left field (league average: .983) with bad range at both position despite his speed. (He has been perfect in 5 games in centerfield.) If Young lost a step, he won't even be a good bench player! Maybe Wiggington or Lopez will have to be pressed into duty as the starter at second base. The middle infield backup for the Rockies is 26 year old Jonathan Herrera. He hit .284 in '10, and he posted a .984 Fld% with unbelievable range, and he was perfect in less time at shortstop and 3rd base. He's a good backup. You have to be scared about the Rockies' situation at second base, although Wiggington or Lopez could certainly step in to be the starter.
Third base:
Ian Stewart, who will turn 26 on April 5th, is lined up to be the Rockies' starting 3rd baseman once again in '11. In 2010, Stewart hit .256 with 14 doubles, 18 homers, 61 RBI, and a .338 OBP in 121 games. Those are certainly decent stats, if not better. But, you have to remember that Stewart hit 25 homers in 2009. Why did he have the decrease of power in '10? Well, first of all he appeared in just 121 games in '10 compared to 147 in '09 (491 PA to 441), so he had less opportunities to hit home runs. Secondly, Stewart was incredibly lucky in '10. 16.3% of the fly balls he hit in '09 went for homers. In '10, his HR/FB went down to 11.9%. The HR/FB is certainly a big deal, but if he gets enough plate appearances and matures a bit as a hitter, I'm sure he'll hit 25 homers in '11. Stewart is also good defensively, and accordingly he posted a very good .964 Fld% at 3rd base with good range. He'll be backed up by Wiggington and Lopez and possibly 26 year old Chris Nelson, who hit .280 in '10, but still needs work defensively to be a utility infielder. Stewart is a decent player for the Rockies.
Shorstop:
The Rockies locked up Troy Tulowitzki at least until 2020 with an huge extension, 10 years, 163 million dollars (he had a previous extension until 2013, so the deal this offseason was for 2014-2020), and the Rockies even have an option for him in 2021. He's just 26 right now, and he's probably set for his entire career now. He better live up to expectations. Through the end of August in 2010, it didn't seem that Tulo was about to get a huge extension. He was hitting .319, but he had hit just 12 homers and driven in just 55 runs. Well, Tulowitzki changed that in September, hitting .303 with 15 homers and 40 RBI. On the season he hit .315 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, 89 runs, 11 SB, and a .381 OBP in just 122 games because he missed from mid-June to late-July with a broken wrist. He was an All-Star, he finished 5th in the NL MVP voting, and he was a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glover. Speaking of his defense, Tulowitzki posted a .984 Fld% at shortstop (league average: .971), with ridiculous range. He's an incredible player, both offensively and defensively, and will be worth every penny the Rockies pay him. He'll be backed up by Herrera, Wiggington, Lopez, and Nelson if he makes the team. The Rockies have one of the top two shortstops in baseball right now and will be set for many years to come.
Left Field:
After Matt Holliday was traded to the Oakland A's in November of '08, some player in the Rockies organization was going to have to step up to hold down the starting left field job. That player was Seth Smith. In 2007, Smith had a huge season, hitting .317 with 32 doubles, 17 homers, 82 RBI, 6 triples, 7 stolen bases, and a .381 OBP in 129 games at Triple-A, and hitting .625 with a triple in 8 major league at-bats. In '08, with Holliday still in the picture, Smith went back to Triple-A, and hit .323 with 16 doubles, 10 homers, 53 RBI, 11 stolen bases, and a .426 OBP in just 68 games. He forced his way onto the big league roster to stay by July, although he was also promoted for 19 games from late-May to mid-June. On the year in the majors, Smith hit .259 with 7 doubles, 4 homers, 15 RBI, and a .350 OBP in 67 games (123 PA). Those were decent numbers, but not good enough to force him into a starting job. But, in 2009, he was able to seize the starting job by mid July, and had a good season, hitting .293 with 20 doubles, 15 homers, 55 RBI, 4 triples, and a .378 OBP in 133 games (387 PA). In 2010, Smith was the Rockies' primary left fielder again, but he didn't do anywhere as well. He hit just .255 with 19 doubles, 17 homers, 52 RBI, 5 triples, and just a .314 OBP in 133 games again, but this time 398 PA. What was the reason for the difference in BA between '09 and '10 for Smith? Simple. The stat that should be your first guess if you've read all my previews so far, BAbip. In 2009, Smith was lucky enough to have a .324 BAbip. That was completely reversed in '10, when he was very unlucky, posting just a .256 BAbip. He was unlucky in '10 after being unlucky in '09. Let's look at some of his other stats to prove it. 21% of his balls in play were line drives in '09, 20% in '10. That's not enough to explain the .38 difference in BA of its own. His strikeout rate went down from 17.3% to 16.8%, so that's not why he posted a lower BA (his walk rate went down from 11.9% to 8.8%, explaining his lower OBP). He put more balls in play (70% to 66%), and more of his hits went for extra bases (10.3% to 10.1%), and home runs (4.3% to 3.9%) in '10 compared to '09. The big difference for Smith was his bad BAbip. He should be fine. With average luck he'll probably hit .280 in '11. The lower walk rate is much more of a problem. He has a 10.5 BB% in the majors for his career, but he had a 9.0% BB% in the minors (league average 8.7%). Could he be reverting back to his minor league ways? But, Smith had a 10.5 BB% in Triple-A. He just had a bad year, and starting pressing to raise his BA. A stat I neglected to mention before is that Smith swung at 44% of all pitches thrown against him in '10 compared to 40% in '09 (that's a big difference). That allowed him to put more balls in play (but he had a low BAbip which led to his low BA, but with the same BAbip as is '09 he would have raised his BA), but it lowered his walk rate by quite a bit. He changed his approach at the plate in a negative way. If the Rockies' coaches can get him back to his previous approach, he'll be fine. It won't hurt that he's entering his prime at age 28. Defensively, Smith has shown great range his entire career, but has just a league average .986 Fld% in the outfield (.988 in left field). His range is leading to a few errors. Maybe that will change in 2011 as well. Smith will be backed up by Ryan Spilborghs, and possibly Wigginton. (Carlos Gonzalez and Eric Young also play left field.) Spilborghs, 31, had a decent year offensively in '10, playing as a backup and starting in left field for a time, hitting .279 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 39 RBI, and a .360 OBP in 134 games (388 PA). But, Spilborghs needed a .341 BAbip to hit .279, and he has another huge problem: in 2010, he struck, out 83 times, 21.4% of his plate appearances. By means of comparison, that's a higher percentage than Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira posted in '10, two players with a heck of a lot more power than Spilborghs. When his BAbip inevitably goes back down to neutral, Spilborghs will be weighed down by his strikeouts and post a low BA. In 2009, when he had a .288 BAbip, he hit just .241. Expect a BA closer to that from Spilborghs in '11. He isn't even good defensively, considering he owns a .979 career Fld% in the outfield with terrible range. He is actually is a really bad backup outfielder. He certainly won't start as many games as he did in '10 (78). Expect a bounce-back year from Rockies left fielder Seth Smith in '11.
Centerfield:
Speedster Derek Fowler is lined up to be the centerfielder for the Rockies again in '11. In 2010, the 24 year old hit .260 with 20 doubles, 6 homers, 36 RBI, 14 triples (tops in the NL), 13 stolen bases (8 CS), and a .347 OBP in 132 games. What's worrying is that he needed a .328 BAbip to hit .260. That's not good. Even though he was lucky, he was just an average player or worse across the board in 2010. He desperately needs to use his speed well, and while he used it to leg out 14 triples, he stole just 13 bases and was successful just 62% of the time. Why? He didn't go often enough to reverse the trend. On May 20th, Fowler had stolen 6 bases and been caught 4 times. From May 21st until the end of the month, Fowler didn't even attempt a stolen base, and compounding the problem, he was hitting just .216. He was then sent down to Triple-A, where he hit .340 in 27 games, but stole just one base (0 CS). After returning to the majors, Fowler hit .272, but he stole just 7 bases and was caught 4 times, although he did hit 11 of his 14 triples. Fowler didn't attempt to steal often enough. In 2010, he had 172 opportunities to steal a base (i.e. he was on 1st or 2nd base with an empty base in front of him), and he attempted to steal just 22 times, or 12.8%. In 2009, when he stole 27 bases and was caught 10 times, he went 18.9% of the time. Fowler has to be more aggressive on the bases. Defensively, Fowler posted a .996 Fld% in '10, which was 3rd in the NL, but despite his speed, he showed poor range. He'll be backed up by Spilborghs. The Rockies need a resurgence from Dexter Fowler on the basepaths.
Right field:
Carlos Gonzalez, another player who received a huge extension from the Rockies (7 years, 80 million dollars), went above and beyond all expectations in '10, finishing 3rd in the NL MVP voting and winning a Silver Slugger. Gonzalez, who turned 25 in October, hit .336 in '10, enough to win the batting title, with 34 doubles, 34 homers, 117 RBI, 9 triples, 111 runs, 197 hits (also tops in the NL), 26 stolen bases (8 CS), and a .376 OBP in 145 games. He also led the NL with 351 total bases. Was Gonzalez lucky in '10? Of course. He had a crazy .384 BAbip. Was he the luckiest man in the world? Actually, no. I'm sure some player had a higher BAbip in over 400 at-bats (and I'll probably cover him in one of the team previews), but what I mean is that Gonzalez earned his high BAbip. 27% of his balls in play were line drives, compared to the league average of 19%, and obviously liine drives are less likely to be fielded for an out. Neutralized, even in Coors Field, Gonzalez hit .318, so he was lucky, but not as lucky as it would seem from his .384 BAbip. Gonzalez also won a Gold Glove for his defensive work in '10. He posted a .996 Fld% in the outfield including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 40 games in right field with 8 outfield assists, although he didn't show great range (but he did in '08 and '09, so maybe his poor range was just a fluke). Gonzalez is an outstanding five-tool player. He'll also be backed up by Spilborghs. The Rockies have another perennial MVP candidate in Carlos Gonzalez.
Starting rotation:
Headlining the Rockies' rotation is ace Ubaldo Jimenez. The 27 year old right-hander had the best first half of any pitcher in baseball in '10, going 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA, 113 K's, and just 46 walks in 18 starts and 127 IP. He pitched 3 complete games, including a no-hitter, and he allowed just 87 hits and 6 homers, a great 6.2 H/9 and a very good 0.4 HR/9. People were talking about whether Jimenez could become the first pitcher since Denny McLain in 1968 to win 30 games in a season. Jimenez was unable to even 20 games, going just 4-7 with a 3.80 ERA in the second half, although he did have 101 K's compared to 46 walks, and allowed 77 hits and 4 homers, a 7.3 H/9 and a 0.3 HR/9 in 15 starts and 104.2 IP. The difference for Jimenez was his control: he posted a 4.4 BB/9 in the second half compared ti a 3.3 BB/9 in the first half. Neither of those numbers are that great, but Jimenez was able to overcome it in the first half, but his walk rate reached a tipping point in the second half and he struggled. Another thing that led to Jimenez's decline in the second half was his BAbip: in the first half he was lucky enough to have a .252 BAbip, but when his BAbip went back to neutral at .303, he looked a lot more like a third starter than an ace. Still, you can't complain about his overall numbers. He went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA, 214 K's compared to 94 walks, 4 complete games, and 2 shutouts (one no-hitter) in 31 starts and 221.2 IP. He allowed 64 hits, a 6.7 H/9, and 10 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. He led the NL in win-loss percentage (.704) in he finished 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting. I hate to say it, but Jimenez clearly isn't as a good as his 2010 numbers. Unless he drastically improves his control, I doubt he will ever post an ERA under 3.00 again without being extremely lucky again. In 2008, when he had a neutral .303 BAbip, Jimenez went 12-12 with a 3.99 ERA. Jimenez is better that- he has improved his walk rate and strikeout rate since then. In '09, when he had a .289 BAbip, Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.57 ERA. Jimenez is better than that also- he has improved his walk rate and strikeout rate since then as well. So, what can we expect from Jimenez in '10? I would say something like a 3.15 ERA, which is still very good, but not great. Still, posting a 3.15 ERA is still really good. With the bat, Jimenez is terrible, considering he hit just .104 with 4 RBI and only 4 sac bunts (-0.6 WAR). Ubaldo Jimenez may never repeat his 2010 performance, but he's still a solid ace for the Rockies.
It may seem very strange to you that I'm placing 23 year old right-hander Jhoulys Chacin in the number two spot in the Rockies rotation ahead of several more experienced starters, but based an ERA, I really don't have a choice. Jhoulys (pronounced yo-LEES) Chacin had a very good rookie season, going 9-11 with a 3.28 ERA, and 138 K's compared to 61 walks in 21 starts, 7 RA's, and 137.1 IP. He allowed 114 hits, a 7.5 H/9, and 10 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. Maybe in another year, he would have gotten some Rookie of the Year situation, but the field was pretty stacked this year (scroll down to "NL Rookie of the Year Voting"). Chacin finished second in the Rockies' rotation in ERA behind Jimenez, so that's an accomplishment. Is he the real deal? Yes. Well, first of all, Chacin actually had a 2.98 ERA in 21 starts, so he was even better than he seemed (he had a 6.75 ERA in relief). Secondly, he allowed a .290 BAbip, which is more or less neutral. Chacin is the real deal. Maybe the Rockies have another player to extend. Different story with the bat for Chacin, considering he hit just .075 with 1 RBI and 4 sac bunts, but then again, he might have been messed up by 6 relief appearances in July. Chacin will pair with Jimenez at the top of the Rockies' rotation for years to come.
Despite just a 5.02 career ERA and a 4.31 ERA in '09 and '10, his best two years, the Rockies resigned 30 year old left-hander Jorge de la Rosa to a 2-year 19.5 million dollar contract with an 11 million dollar player option for 2013 (and if he accepts that, the Rockies own an 11 million dollar team option for him in 2014). De la Rosa also appeared in just 20 games in 2010 because of a torn left flexor band in his left middle finger on his pitching hand. When he was healthy, de la Rosa wasn't all that effective either, going 8-7 with a 4.22 ERA and 113 K's compared to 55 walks in 20 starts and 121.2 IP. He allowed 115 hits for a 7.8 H/9 ratio, but despite all the missed time, he allowed 15 home runs for a 1.1 HR/9. He did this all while having a .280 BAbip. That's not good. But, considering he pitches his home games in Coors, de la Rosa is a pretty good pitcher. He had a 3.78 neutralized ERA, so he can't be that bad. If de la Rosa suddenly has his first season with an ERA under 4.00 in '11, that would be great, but you have to realize that when de la Rosa posted a 4.38 ERA in '09, the Rockies went 20-12 in his starts (he was 16-9). Jorge de la Rosa is a decent pitcher for the Rockies, but only because you consider his environment. de la Rosa hit a career-high .171 in '10 with 4 RBI and 3 sac bunts. Jorge de la Rosa is just good enough to pitch to a winning record for the Rockies.
From 2002 to 2009, Aaron Cook, who recently turned 32, was a solid pitcher for the Rockies from 2002-2009, posting a 4.33 ERA (like I said for de la Rosa, that's not a great ERA, but it's good enough for Coors). In 2010, that changed. Cook went just 6-8 in '10 with a 5.08 ERA, 62K's, and 52 walks in 23 starts and 127.2 IP. He allowed 147 hits, more than a hit per inning at 10.4 per 9, although he did allow just 11 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. What's scary if you're not familiar with Cook is that he allowed a 10.4 H/9 despite just a .309 BAbip. But, you have to realize that he has a 10.3 career H/9 despite just a .307 BAbip. Almost every year, Cook's is able to get around all the hits he allows. Cook is successful because of how many ground balls he gives up. He owns a 1.37 ground ball to fly ball ratio for his career, and a 2.22 ground out to air out ratio. He was actually better in both of his categories in '10, allowing a 1.42 ground ball to fly ball ratio and a 2.29 ground out to air out ratio. The league averages for those stats are 0.79 and 1.07 respectively. So, Cook was pretty much pitching to contact the way he wants to pitch to contact, but the main problem for him was he walk rate. He owns just a 3.8 career K/9, which is minuscule, and his 4.4 K/9 in '10 actually tied his career-high. But, the problem for Cook in '10 was that he had a 3.7 BB/9, which isn't good in general, and which is obviously very bad for a pitcher was a low strikeout rate. His career BB/9 is 2.7, and that's where he needs to be. For his career, Cook has just a 1.37 K/BB ratio. The one season he had to 2 to 1 ratio was 2008, his lone All-Star appearance and his best season overall (16-9, 3.96). Even if he can't back to a 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio, Cook has to at least lower his walk rate. Cook had an interesting problem with 3-0 counts. Umpires are known to be most lenient with their strike zone on 3-0 counts, yet on 3-0 counts, Cook threw a strike just 51% of the time. For his career Cook has thrown a strike on 3-0 58% of the time, and 61% the past three seasons. Cook just has to challenge hitters a little bit more on 3-0 counts. Obviously, there are situations when you can't, but sometimes you might as well throw a decent pitch, and maybe the batter will miss-hit it. I'm sure Cook will be better on 3-0 counts in '11 and thus improve his walk rate. It's just a strange thing to suddenly decline in. If Cook can improve his walk rate, he'll get back to his 4.33 career ERA, and maybe a bit better. Cook will be a better pitcher in '11 for the Rockies.
There are three candidates for the final spot in the Rockies' rotation: the frontrunner, Jason Hammel, Felipe Paulino, and Esmil Rogers. Hammel came over to the Rockies in a trade in April of 2009, and the 28 year old right-hander had a good year for the Rockies, going 10-8 with a 4.33 ERA, 133 K's, and just 42 walks in 30 starts, 4 RA's, and 176.2 IP. His problems were that he allowed 203 hits, over a hit per inning at 10.3 per 9, and 17 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. In '10, allowing over a hit per inning again hurt him, and although he went 10-9, he posted a 4.81 ERA, striking out 141 and walking 47 in 30 starts and 177.2 IP. He allowed 201 hits, actually slightly less than '09 at 10.2 per 9, and 18 homers for the same 0.9 HR/9. Why did Hammel post an ERA nearly a half-run higher in '10 than in '09 considering he had such similar stats otherwise? It wasn't BAbip: no matter what I'm about to conclude, Hammel is due for a better year in '11 because he has allowed BAbip's of .332 and .335 the past 2 years. His line drive percentage remained exactly the same (22%), and so did his ground ball to fly ball ratio (0.87). His IP% (in-play percentage) actually went down from 73% to 71% and his XBH% (extra base hit percentage) went down from 8.4% to 7.1%. The only negative increases for Hammel were his walk rate (2.1 BB/9 to 2.4) and his HR/FB (percentage of fly balls allowed that went for homers), which increased from 6.2% to 6.6%. So, there goes all the other stats I've ever mentioned. His WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) increased from 1.387 to 1.396, but that was because his walk rate increased. So, why was Hammel worse in '10 than '09? Quality start percentage (QS%). Hammel's QS% decreased from 50% to 47%. He just wasn't as consistent (if 50% counts as consistent at all). And why was that? The Rockies didn't give him as much run support (4.5 R/GS compared to 5.1 in '09). In 2009, Hammel allowed a .282 BA when the Rockies were ahead compared to .260 when the team was behind. He helped the Rockies get back into games. In '10, he allowed a .299 BA when ahead and .309 when behind, so it was harder for the Rockies to come back. And by the way, those declines from '09 to '10 are pure luck. Hammel's BAbip when ahead went up from .333 to .340 when ahead from '09 to '10, which isn't a huge increase, but his BAbip when behind shot up from .260 to .377, a ridiculous .117 increase (the difference between a .300 hitter and a .183 hitter). He should be fine in '10. He just got unlucky overall with his BAbip in both '09 and '10, and especially when he was behind in '10. You have to think that Hammel, if he has a league average .300 BAbip, will be able to at least get back to his 4.33 ERA, and I wouldn't be completely shocked if he snuck into the 3.00's at 3.99 or something. Hammel hit just .105 with 2 RBI, although he did have 5 sac bunts. You have to think Hammel will be the 5th starter for the Rockies once again in 2011, and he should definitely improve on his 2010 numbers.
Might as well go through Paulino and Rogers as well, even though they're undoubtedly underdogs for the 5th starter job. Paulino is a 27 year old right-hander, but even though he has a leg up on Hammel in terms of age, you can't like his 2010 numbers (or his 2009 numbers for that matter). In 2010, he went just 1-9 for the Astros, with a 5.11 ERA, 83 K's, and 46 walks in 15 starts, 4 RA's, and 91.2 IP. He allowed 95 hits, over a hit per inning, although he did allow just 4 home runs, 0.4 per 9. He doesn't seem like the kind of player you would trade your starting second baseman (Clint Barmes) for. But, the Rockies are looking past Paulino's 'regular' stats. He allowed a .340 BAbip in '10, so he was obviously very unlucky, and it also put him into more pressure situations. Maybe he could post an ERA in the 4.30 range like seemingly every other Rockies pitcher and get a few wins. Also, what was crazy in '10 was that Paulino allowed almost no hard contact. Just 14% of the balls in play against him were line drives (MLB average: 19%). Paulino will probably allow a few more homers in '10 considering he allowed just a 2.9% HR/FB (MLB average 7.5%), but if his BAbip returns to neutral, he'll still be a pretty decent pitcher. You have to think that even if Paulino doesn't win a starting job, the Rockies will use him on the major league roster in some capacity. Again, why else would they trade their starting second baseman? If he doesn't beat out Hammel for the 5th starter job, I'm sure he'll stick as a long reliever, although his if his brief relieving history (12.39 ERA in 13 appearances) is any indication, the Rockies have a problem. Paulino was actually a pretty good hitter in '10, hitting .292 with 3 sac bunts, although he did not drive in any runs. Paulino may not end up being the 5th starter for the Rockies, but you have to think he'll be on the major league roster.
If Paulino is an underdog for the 5th starter job, 25 year old Esmil Rogers is a 30-1 long-shot. After appearing in 1 game in 2009, Rogers spent extended time in the majors for the first time in his career, and it wasn't pretty. Rogers went 2-3 with a 6.13 ERA, 66 K's, 26 walks, and 2 holds in 8 starts, 20 RA's, and 72 IP. His main problem was that he allowed 94 hits, a really bad ratio of 11.8 per 9 inning, although he did allow just 5 homers, good for a 0.6 HR/9. Even though he had a 2.0 K/BB and he didn't allow too many homers, you just can't give up that many hits. But, why did he give up so many hits? He was about the unluckiest man in the world, giving up a .390 BAbip. But, part of the reason that Rogers had such a high BAbip was because 25% of the balls put into play against him were line drives, compared to the MLB average of 19%. Line drives are less likely to be caught, and since he allowed more line drives, he had more balls hit against him that were less likely to be caught, leading to his higher BAbip. Also, he had a 4.59 ERA and a 9.6 H/9 in the minors even though he had a .283 BAbip in the minors. (That's not including sac flies against him- I can't find that stat. To put this in perspective, if you took away sac flies from Rogers 2010 BAbip, he would have had an even worse .401 BAbip, so let's say he had a .293 BAbip in the minors. If someone knows where to find sac flies against a pitcher in the minors, please comment.) He also had a 5.75 ERA at Triple-A in '10. It seems pretty clear that Rogers needs more time in the minors. I doubt Rogers will make the Rockies out of spring training, although we may see him in the majors later in the year.
Bullpen:
Matt Belisle had a big year as a middle reliever for the Rockies in '11, going 7-5 with a 2.93 ERA, 91 K's, just 16 walks, 21 holds, and 1 save in 76 RA's and 92 IP. The 30 year old right-hander allowed 84 hits, an 8.2 H/9, and 7 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. The homers were his one problem; he allowed a .314 BAbip, so his H/9 will go down even more when his BAbip goes back down to neutral. He's a good reliever, although you have to worry a bit about the homers. Rafael Betancourt, who will turn 36 in April, went 5-1 for the Rockies in '10 with a 3.61 ERA, 89 K's, just 8 walks (good for an 11.13 K/BB that was better than Cliff Lee), 23 holds, and 1 save in 72 RA's in 62.1 IP. He allowed just 52 hits, 7.5 per 9, but 9 homers, which amounted to a terrible 1.3 HR/9. Betancourt was a bit unlucky in terms of HR/FB (9.9%), but he also allowed a 24% LD%, and some of those line drives were going to be home runs. If Betancourt can keep the homers down, he will be a good reliever (when he had a 0.4 HR/9 in 32 RA's for Colorado in '09, he had a great 1.73 ERA). Matt Lindstrom, a 31 year old reliever acquired from the Astros for a couple of prospects this offseason, had a decent year splitting the closer duties with Brandon Lyon, going 2-5 with a 4.39 ERA, 43 K's, 20 walks, 4 holds, and 23 saves (6 blown saves) in 58 RA's and 53.1 IP. He allowed 68 hits, a terrible ratio of 11.5 per 9, and 5 homers, a 0.8 HR/9. He actually had a 2.48 ERA on July 30th before collapsing to the tune of a 10.13 ERA the rest of the year, although he did allow a .385 ERA. Overall on the year, he had a crazy .362 BAbip, which was actually not so crazy when you consider he has a .340 career BAbip. But, maybe he will finally get lucky in '11 and allow a .300 BAbip and allow a 9.0 H/9 or better. He did manage an 8.9 H/9 from '07 to '08, so it's not that far-fetched. He also had a 3.11 ERA for '07 to '08, so maybe the Rockies could get that, especially because Lindstrom won't be closing. I would expect a significantly better ERA from Lindstrom in '11, maybe around 3.50. 26 year old left-hander Matt Reynolds had a nice big league debut in '10, going 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA, 17 K's, just 5 walks, and 2 holds in 21 RA's and 18 IP. He allowed just 10 hits, a 5.0 H/9, but 2 homers, 1.0 per 9. It was a very small sample size, and you also have to realize that Reynolds was ridiculously lucky, allowing just a .186 BAbip, although he did allow just a 61% IP% (MLB average 69%). Maybe Reynolds isn't really quite as good as he was in '10, but considering how low his IP% was, I would think he could still post an ERA in the 2.90 range. He also had a 2.62 ERA in 50 RA's at Triple-A in '10 despite a BAbip above .300 (I don't exactly what it is again because I don't know how many sac flies he allowed), so that might be his upside. Reynolds is a good lefty reliever for the Rockies. There are 4 other relievers competing for the final spot or the final two spots in the Rockies' bullpen: lefty Franklin Morales and righties Edgmer Escalona and Matt Daley. Morales is entering his third major league season at age 25. Through June 13th, Morales had a 3.21 ERA, but just like Lindstrom, he collapsed to end the year, posting a 9.20 ERA, although when he was sent down to the minors, he posted a 2.67 ERA in 24 RA's. On the year in the majors, Morales went 0-4 with a 6.28 ERA, 27 K's, 24 walks (certainly way too many), and 1 hold in 35 RA's and 28.2 IP. He allowed 28 hits, pretty much a hit per inning (8.8 H/9), but 5 homers, a really bad 1.6 HR/9 ratio. Even though Morales had a 6.28 ERA, you would think that at age 25, he deserves another chance, right? He just needs to work on his control! But, you could argue back that Reynolds has passed Morales and he'll be the lefty in the bullpen. I would compromise if Morales doesn't impress the Rockies in spring training: I would start Morales in the minors, let him straighten himself out, and then bring him up to the majors. I don't think Morales will start 2011 at the big league level. Escalona, 24, posted a 1.50 ERA in his 5-game big league debut in '10, but it was a different story for him in the minors. He went 3-5 with a 6.00 ERA, 74 K's, 32 walks, and 1 save (I can't find his minor league hold count) in 57 RA's and 69 IP. He allowed 66 hits, 8.6 per 9, but an unbelievable count of 17 home runs as a reliever, which amounted to a 2.2 HR/9 that was so terrible that even half of it(a 1.1 HR/9) would still be really bad for a reliever. It's 50-50 that Escalona even appears in 1 major league game in all of 2011 (well, as long as they don't just look at his major league stats). Daley appears to be the final member of the bullpen by default. Through June 10th, 2010, Daley had a 3.74 ERA. But, after that game, Daley went on the 60-day DL with a shoulder injury that sidelined him until September 10th. Overall in '10, Daley went 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA, 18 K's, 10 walks, and 7 holds in 28 RA's and 23.1 IP. He allowed 27 hits, over a hit per inning at 10.4 per 9, and 2 homers, 0.8 per 9. He had a .342 BAbip against him, so he was certainly unlucky, but he wasn't unlucky in any other regard. Maybe he could post an ERA in the 3.90 range or better with a .300 BAbip. But interestingly, when he had a .289 BAbip in 57 RA's in 2009, he had the same 4.24 ERA. But, the difference that year was that he had a 1.1 HR/9 that season. If he puts it all in '10, I am sure he could post an ERA in the 3.90 range. He's a decent reliever. The Rockies have a pretty good bullpen.
Bullpen:
Huston Street missed until late June in 2010 with a shoulder injury, but after that, the 2005 AL Rookie of the Year did pretty well, going 4-4 with a 3.61 ERA, 45 K's, just 11 walks, and 20 saves in 44 RA's and 47.1 IP. At age 27, Street now has a 3.00 career ERA, and 149 career saves, which are good numbers, but he has to manage to stay healthy. He has never saved 40 games, and he's only saved 35 games twice (2006 and 2009). Will 2011 finally be the season where Street saves 40 games? Street's response to his terrible August in 2010 is certainly encouraging. Through July 31st of 2010, Street had a 2.65 ERA, 6 saves, and just 1 blown save in 16 RA's. But then, he had an awful August. He posted just a 6.06 ERA, saving 7 games and blowing 3 in 16 games. But, he responded in a big way in September. He appeared in 12 games, posting a 1.93 ERA, saving 7 games and blowing just 1. Street overcame adversity, and was better because of it. Will he post a 1.93 ERA again in 2011 and save 40 games? After watching his September, maybe. (I would say a 2.70 ERA and exactly 40 saves). Street, when healthy, is a good closer for the Rockies. He better stay healthy and live up to his potential in 2011.
Overview:
The Rockies have a very good offense, headlined by perennial MVP candidates Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. They're decent defensively. The rotation isn't great, but it's good enough to keep the offense in games, and more often than not, the offense will come through. The bullpen is good enough. The Rockies will contend, and even if they can't not off the defending champion Giants for the NL West crown, they will certainly contend for the wild card.
2010 record: 83-79
Prediction: 90-72, 2nd in NL West
After all my NL previews, I'll pick my wild card.
Catcher:
After Chris Iannetta hit just .228 in '09, the Rockies signed Miguel Olivo in the offseason. The Rockies let Olivo leave as a free agent (he was traded to the Blue Jays for a second before his 2011 option was declined, which I talked about here), giving Iannetta another chance. In a backup role in '10, Ianneta hit just .197 with 6 doubles, 9 homers, 27 RBI, and a .318 OBP in 61 games. He posted just a .985 Fld% and a 22% CS%. Besides the power, Iannetta was pretty terrible, even for a backup catcher. He was really unlucky, having just a .212 BAbip in '10. In '09, he had just a .245 BAbip. Iannetta's last good offensive season was 2008, when he hit .264 with 22 doubles, 18 homers, 65 RBI, and a .390 OBP in 107 games. He had a .311 BAbip that year. If his luck returns to normal, maybe Ianneta could get back to those numbers, at least the .264 BA, and probably the 18 homers as well. 2008 was also the only year where Iannetta got over 400 plate appearances, so maybe with extended time he would be able to sort himself out anyway. Iannetta had a .306 career BA in the minors including a .339 BA at Triple-A. I doubt he'll ever hit .300, but how does he own just a .234 BA in the majors? You have to think that Iannetta is better than he's played in the majors, and maybe in 2011, at age 28 (on April 8th), he finally proves that. His 2010 performance defensively was a bit of an aberration, considering he has a .994 career Fld% at catcher, although he does have a 22% career CS%. Maybe 2010 is when Iannetta finally brakes out.
1st base:
Longtime Rockie Todd Helton isn't the player he used to be. But, with 3 years left on his enormous contract, Helton is untradable and the Rockies will start him at first base for the 13th straight year. In 2010, despite playing his home games at Coors Field, Helton hit just .256 with 18 doubles, 8 homers, 37 RBI, but a .362 OBP in 118 games. Each of those numbers were career-lows for Helton for seasons in which he played in 85 or more games. He had a .307 BAbip, which is still slightly above-average, but the 2nd lowest of his career since 1998. Defensively, Helton posted a slightly below-average .992 Fld% at first base. At age 37, the end will come soon for Helton. If the Rockies could, they would no doubt acquire a first baseman, and Michael Young, who now wants out of Texas, might be that guy. But, for right now, the Rockies are stuck with the declining Helton at first base. Or are they? This offseason they signed Ty Wiggington to a 2-year deal (at age 33) with an option for a third year. Wiggington does play all over the field (he's played everyone except centerfield, pitcher, and catcher in the majors, and even caught a minor league game), but you have to think the Rockies will the 2010 All-Star a significant amount of at-bats (maybe around 400). Could some of those at-bats come at first base? Again, Helton isn't the same player and he's 37 years old, so he'll need quite a few days off. When they do give him days off, Wiggington should be the starter. Helton appeared in just 118 games in '10, and maybe he'll appear in even fewer in 2011. Wiggington will also get at-bats at 3rd base, and sparingly at the other positions. (Wiggington is below-average defensively across the board, but less so at 1st and 3rd.) Another utilityman that will play first base is Jose Lopez. With just 1 year left under team control, the Mariners decided to trade the 27 year old infielder and get a prospect for him, rather than keep him for 2011 and get a probably get a compensation draft pick. (The prospect the Mariners acquired, Chaz Roe, posted a 5.98 ERA at Triple-A in '10 and just one season on his minor league resume with an ERA under 4.00.) Lopez had a good season in '09, hitting .272 with 42 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, but just a .303 OBP. Without even knowing the stats, I'm sure you can guess what I'm about to say. Lopez's low OBP finally caught up to his in 2010, when he did something few others have done: post a .270 OBP in 622 plate appearances (the league average was .319). He hit .239 with 29 doubles, 10 homers and 58 RBI. He was awful, posting a negative WAR. But, he did have just a .254 BAbip, so he isn't quite as bad as he seemed to be in '10. Also, considering his power, Lopez will be a great bench player for the Rockies. And that's just what his offensive contribution will be to the team. He has shown incredible range defensively at both 2nd and 3rd base, although his career Fld% is a bit below-average at 2nd. He's been average at first base and survived at shortstop. He'll be a really valuable bench player for the Rockies, considering his versatility and ability defensively, and his power. Tood Helton career is on a downward spiral from which it will never recover, but his backups at first base, Ty Wiggington and Jose Lopez, are good enough players that the Rockies will be able to keep Helton well rested while still receiving good production at first base.
Second base:
According to kffl.com, Eric Young was supposed to be traded to the Texas Rangers for Michael Young last week, but he failed his physical because of a stress fracture in his right tibia (in his leg) that he suffered in May and the Rangers pulled out of the deal. Let's discuss Eric Young. He's a speedster. Even if his doesn't miss any additional time, you still have to wonder- could his injury affect his speed? He stole 13 bases in 38 games after he came back from the injury. This is from a player who once stole 87 bases in the minors. Without speed, Young is nothing. The 25 year old owns just a .245 BA in his 81 game major league career, with a .318 OBP. He has just 1 homer. His only redeeming quality offensively is his speed: he has 21 stolen bases (10 CS). In the minors, he had 313 stolen bases in 7 seasons. He hit just 27 home runs. Great move by the Rangers not trading for Young. If he has lost a step, he'll be a nobody. Young is also a disaster defensively. He owns just a .963 Fld% at second base including just a .958 Fld% in '10 (league average: .985), and a .917 Fld% in left field (league average: .983) with bad range at both position despite his speed. (He has been perfect in 5 games in centerfield.) If Young lost a step, he won't even be a good bench player! Maybe Wiggington or Lopez will have to be pressed into duty as the starter at second base. The middle infield backup for the Rockies is 26 year old Jonathan Herrera. He hit .284 in '10, and he posted a .984 Fld% with unbelievable range, and he was perfect in less time at shortstop and 3rd base. He's a good backup. You have to be scared about the Rockies' situation at second base, although Wiggington or Lopez could certainly step in to be the starter.
Third base:
Ian Stewart, who will turn 26 on April 5th, is lined up to be the Rockies' starting 3rd baseman once again in '11. In 2010, Stewart hit .256 with 14 doubles, 18 homers, 61 RBI, and a .338 OBP in 121 games. Those are certainly decent stats, if not better. But, you have to remember that Stewart hit 25 homers in 2009. Why did he have the decrease of power in '10? Well, first of all he appeared in just 121 games in '10 compared to 147 in '09 (491 PA to 441), so he had less opportunities to hit home runs. Secondly, Stewart was incredibly lucky in '10. 16.3% of the fly balls he hit in '09 went for homers. In '10, his HR/FB went down to 11.9%. The HR/FB is certainly a big deal, but if he gets enough plate appearances and matures a bit as a hitter, I'm sure he'll hit 25 homers in '11. Stewart is also good defensively, and accordingly he posted a very good .964 Fld% at 3rd base with good range. He'll be backed up by Wiggington and Lopez and possibly 26 year old Chris Nelson, who hit .280 in '10, but still needs work defensively to be a utility infielder. Stewart is a decent player for the Rockies.
Shorstop:
The Rockies locked up Troy Tulowitzki at least until 2020 with an huge extension, 10 years, 163 million dollars (he had a previous extension until 2013, so the deal this offseason was for 2014-2020), and the Rockies even have an option for him in 2021. He's just 26 right now, and he's probably set for his entire career now. He better live up to expectations. Through the end of August in 2010, it didn't seem that Tulo was about to get a huge extension. He was hitting .319, but he had hit just 12 homers and driven in just 55 runs. Well, Tulowitzki changed that in September, hitting .303 with 15 homers and 40 RBI. On the season he hit .315 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, 89 runs, 11 SB, and a .381 OBP in just 122 games because he missed from mid-June to late-July with a broken wrist. He was an All-Star, he finished 5th in the NL MVP voting, and he was a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glover. Speaking of his defense, Tulowitzki posted a .984 Fld% at shortstop (league average: .971), with ridiculous range. He's an incredible player, both offensively and defensively, and will be worth every penny the Rockies pay him. He'll be backed up by Herrera, Wiggington, Lopez, and Nelson if he makes the team. The Rockies have one of the top two shortstops in baseball right now and will be set for many years to come.
Left Field:
After Matt Holliday was traded to the Oakland A's in November of '08, some player in the Rockies organization was going to have to step up to hold down the starting left field job. That player was Seth Smith. In 2007, Smith had a huge season, hitting .317 with 32 doubles, 17 homers, 82 RBI, 6 triples, 7 stolen bases, and a .381 OBP in 129 games at Triple-A, and hitting .625 with a triple in 8 major league at-bats. In '08, with Holliday still in the picture, Smith went back to Triple-A, and hit .323 with 16 doubles, 10 homers, 53 RBI, 11 stolen bases, and a .426 OBP in just 68 games. He forced his way onto the big league roster to stay by July, although he was also promoted for 19 games from late-May to mid-June. On the year in the majors, Smith hit .259 with 7 doubles, 4 homers, 15 RBI, and a .350 OBP in 67 games (123 PA). Those were decent numbers, but not good enough to force him into a starting job. But, in 2009, he was able to seize the starting job by mid July, and had a good season, hitting .293 with 20 doubles, 15 homers, 55 RBI, 4 triples, and a .378 OBP in 133 games (387 PA). In 2010, Smith was the Rockies' primary left fielder again, but he didn't do anywhere as well. He hit just .255 with 19 doubles, 17 homers, 52 RBI, 5 triples, and just a .314 OBP in 133 games again, but this time 398 PA. What was the reason for the difference in BA between '09 and '10 for Smith? Simple. The stat that should be your first guess if you've read all my previews so far, BAbip. In 2009, Smith was lucky enough to have a .324 BAbip. That was completely reversed in '10, when he was very unlucky, posting just a .256 BAbip. He was unlucky in '10 after being unlucky in '09. Let's look at some of his other stats to prove it. 21% of his balls in play were line drives in '09, 20% in '10. That's not enough to explain the .38 difference in BA of its own. His strikeout rate went down from 17.3% to 16.8%, so that's not why he posted a lower BA (his walk rate went down from 11.9% to 8.8%, explaining his lower OBP). He put more balls in play (70% to 66%), and more of his hits went for extra bases (10.3% to 10.1%), and home runs (4.3% to 3.9%) in '10 compared to '09. The big difference for Smith was his bad BAbip. He should be fine. With average luck he'll probably hit .280 in '11. The lower walk rate is much more of a problem. He has a 10.5 BB% in the majors for his career, but he had a 9.0% BB% in the minors (league average 8.7%). Could he be reverting back to his minor league ways? But, Smith had a 10.5 BB% in Triple-A. He just had a bad year, and starting pressing to raise his BA. A stat I neglected to mention before is that Smith swung at 44% of all pitches thrown against him in '10 compared to 40% in '09 (that's a big difference). That allowed him to put more balls in play (but he had a low BAbip which led to his low BA, but with the same BAbip as is '09 he would have raised his BA), but it lowered his walk rate by quite a bit. He changed his approach at the plate in a negative way. If the Rockies' coaches can get him back to his previous approach, he'll be fine. It won't hurt that he's entering his prime at age 28. Defensively, Smith has shown great range his entire career, but has just a league average .986 Fld% in the outfield (.988 in left field). His range is leading to a few errors. Maybe that will change in 2011 as well. Smith will be backed up by Ryan Spilborghs, and possibly Wigginton. (Carlos Gonzalez and Eric Young also play left field.) Spilborghs, 31, had a decent year offensively in '10, playing as a backup and starting in left field for a time, hitting .279 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 39 RBI, and a .360 OBP in 134 games (388 PA). But, Spilborghs needed a .341 BAbip to hit .279, and he has another huge problem: in 2010, he struck, out 83 times, 21.4% of his plate appearances. By means of comparison, that's a higher percentage than Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira posted in '10, two players with a heck of a lot more power than Spilborghs. When his BAbip inevitably goes back down to neutral, Spilborghs will be weighed down by his strikeouts and post a low BA. In 2009, when he had a .288 BAbip, he hit just .241. Expect a BA closer to that from Spilborghs in '11. He isn't even good defensively, considering he owns a .979 career Fld% in the outfield with terrible range. He is actually is a really bad backup outfielder. He certainly won't start as many games as he did in '10 (78). Expect a bounce-back year from Rockies left fielder Seth Smith in '11.
Centerfield:
Speedster Derek Fowler is lined up to be the centerfielder for the Rockies again in '11. In 2010, the 24 year old hit .260 with 20 doubles, 6 homers, 36 RBI, 14 triples (tops in the NL), 13 stolen bases (8 CS), and a .347 OBP in 132 games. What's worrying is that he needed a .328 BAbip to hit .260. That's not good. Even though he was lucky, he was just an average player or worse across the board in 2010. He desperately needs to use his speed well, and while he used it to leg out 14 triples, he stole just 13 bases and was successful just 62% of the time. Why? He didn't go often enough to reverse the trend. On May 20th, Fowler had stolen 6 bases and been caught 4 times. From May 21st until the end of the month, Fowler didn't even attempt a stolen base, and compounding the problem, he was hitting just .216. He was then sent down to Triple-A, where he hit .340 in 27 games, but stole just one base (0 CS). After returning to the majors, Fowler hit .272, but he stole just 7 bases and was caught 4 times, although he did hit 11 of his 14 triples. Fowler didn't attempt to steal often enough. In 2010, he had 172 opportunities to steal a base (i.e. he was on 1st or 2nd base with an empty base in front of him), and he attempted to steal just 22 times, or 12.8%. In 2009, when he stole 27 bases and was caught 10 times, he went 18.9% of the time. Fowler has to be more aggressive on the bases. Defensively, Fowler posted a .996 Fld% in '10, which was 3rd in the NL, but despite his speed, he showed poor range. He'll be backed up by Spilborghs. The Rockies need a resurgence from Dexter Fowler on the basepaths.
Right field:
Carlos Gonzalez, another player who received a huge extension from the Rockies (7 years, 80 million dollars), went above and beyond all expectations in '10, finishing 3rd in the NL MVP voting and winning a Silver Slugger. Gonzalez, who turned 25 in October, hit .336 in '10, enough to win the batting title, with 34 doubles, 34 homers, 117 RBI, 9 triples, 111 runs, 197 hits (also tops in the NL), 26 stolen bases (8 CS), and a .376 OBP in 145 games. He also led the NL with 351 total bases. Was Gonzalez lucky in '10? Of course. He had a crazy .384 BAbip. Was he the luckiest man in the world? Actually, no. I'm sure some player had a higher BAbip in over 400 at-bats (and I'll probably cover him in one of the team previews), but what I mean is that Gonzalez earned his high BAbip. 27% of his balls in play were line drives, compared to the league average of 19%, and obviously liine drives are less likely to be fielded for an out. Neutralized, even in Coors Field, Gonzalez hit .318, so he was lucky, but not as lucky as it would seem from his .384 BAbip. Gonzalez also won a Gold Glove for his defensive work in '10. He posted a .996 Fld% in the outfield including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 40 games in right field with 8 outfield assists, although he didn't show great range (but he did in '08 and '09, so maybe his poor range was just a fluke). Gonzalez is an outstanding five-tool player. He'll also be backed up by Spilborghs. The Rockies have another perennial MVP candidate in Carlos Gonzalez.
Starting rotation:
Headlining the Rockies' rotation is ace Ubaldo Jimenez. The 27 year old right-hander had the best first half of any pitcher in baseball in '10, going 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA, 113 K's, and just 46 walks in 18 starts and 127 IP. He pitched 3 complete games, including a no-hitter, and he allowed just 87 hits and 6 homers, a great 6.2 H/9 and a very good 0.4 HR/9. People were talking about whether Jimenez could become the first pitcher since Denny McLain in 1968 to win 30 games in a season. Jimenez was unable to even 20 games, going just 4-7 with a 3.80 ERA in the second half, although he did have 101 K's compared to 46 walks, and allowed 77 hits and 4 homers, a 7.3 H/9 and a 0.3 HR/9 in 15 starts and 104.2 IP. The difference for Jimenez was his control: he posted a 4.4 BB/9 in the second half compared ti a 3.3 BB/9 in the first half. Neither of those numbers are that great, but Jimenez was able to overcome it in the first half, but his walk rate reached a tipping point in the second half and he struggled. Another thing that led to Jimenez's decline in the second half was his BAbip: in the first half he was lucky enough to have a .252 BAbip, but when his BAbip went back to neutral at .303, he looked a lot more like a third starter than an ace. Still, you can't complain about his overall numbers. He went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA, 214 K's compared to 94 walks, 4 complete games, and 2 shutouts (one no-hitter) in 31 starts and 221.2 IP. He allowed 64 hits, a 6.7 H/9, and 10 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. He led the NL in win-loss percentage (.704) in he finished 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting. I hate to say it, but Jimenez clearly isn't as a good as his 2010 numbers. Unless he drastically improves his control, I doubt he will ever post an ERA under 3.00 again without being extremely lucky again. In 2008, when he had a neutral .303 BAbip, Jimenez went 12-12 with a 3.99 ERA. Jimenez is better that- he has improved his walk rate and strikeout rate since then. In '09, when he had a .289 BAbip, Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.57 ERA. Jimenez is better than that also- he has improved his walk rate and strikeout rate since then as well. So, what can we expect from Jimenez in '10? I would say something like a 3.15 ERA, which is still very good, but not great. Still, posting a 3.15 ERA is still really good. With the bat, Jimenez is terrible, considering he hit just .104 with 4 RBI and only 4 sac bunts (-0.6 WAR). Ubaldo Jimenez may never repeat his 2010 performance, but he's still a solid ace for the Rockies.
It may seem very strange to you that I'm placing 23 year old right-hander Jhoulys Chacin in the number two spot in the Rockies rotation ahead of several more experienced starters, but based an ERA, I really don't have a choice. Jhoulys (pronounced yo-LEES) Chacin had a very good rookie season, going 9-11 with a 3.28 ERA, and 138 K's compared to 61 walks in 21 starts, 7 RA's, and 137.1 IP. He allowed 114 hits, a 7.5 H/9, and 10 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. Maybe in another year, he would have gotten some Rookie of the Year situation, but the field was pretty stacked this year (scroll down to "NL Rookie of the Year Voting"). Chacin finished second in the Rockies' rotation in ERA behind Jimenez, so that's an accomplishment. Is he the real deal? Yes. Well, first of all, Chacin actually had a 2.98 ERA in 21 starts, so he was even better than he seemed (he had a 6.75 ERA in relief). Secondly, he allowed a .290 BAbip, which is more or less neutral. Chacin is the real deal. Maybe the Rockies have another player to extend. Different story with the bat for Chacin, considering he hit just .075 with 1 RBI and 4 sac bunts, but then again, he might have been messed up by 6 relief appearances in July. Chacin will pair with Jimenez at the top of the Rockies' rotation for years to come.
Despite just a 5.02 career ERA and a 4.31 ERA in '09 and '10, his best two years, the Rockies resigned 30 year old left-hander Jorge de la Rosa to a 2-year 19.5 million dollar contract with an 11 million dollar player option for 2013 (and if he accepts that, the Rockies own an 11 million dollar team option for him in 2014). De la Rosa also appeared in just 20 games in 2010 because of a torn left flexor band in his left middle finger on his pitching hand. When he was healthy, de la Rosa wasn't all that effective either, going 8-7 with a 4.22 ERA and 113 K's compared to 55 walks in 20 starts and 121.2 IP. He allowed 115 hits for a 7.8 H/9 ratio, but despite all the missed time, he allowed 15 home runs for a 1.1 HR/9. He did this all while having a .280 BAbip. That's not good. But, considering he pitches his home games in Coors, de la Rosa is a pretty good pitcher. He had a 3.78 neutralized ERA, so he can't be that bad. If de la Rosa suddenly has his first season with an ERA under 4.00 in '11, that would be great, but you have to realize that when de la Rosa posted a 4.38 ERA in '09, the Rockies went 20-12 in his starts (he was 16-9). Jorge de la Rosa is a decent pitcher for the Rockies, but only because you consider his environment. de la Rosa hit a career-high .171 in '10 with 4 RBI and 3 sac bunts. Jorge de la Rosa is just good enough to pitch to a winning record for the Rockies.
From 2002 to 2009, Aaron Cook, who recently turned 32, was a solid pitcher for the Rockies from 2002-2009, posting a 4.33 ERA (like I said for de la Rosa, that's not a great ERA, but it's good enough for Coors). In 2010, that changed. Cook went just 6-8 in '10 with a 5.08 ERA, 62K's, and 52 walks in 23 starts and 127.2 IP. He allowed 147 hits, more than a hit per inning at 10.4 per 9, although he did allow just 11 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. What's scary if you're not familiar with Cook is that he allowed a 10.4 H/9 despite just a .309 BAbip. But, you have to realize that he has a 10.3 career H/9 despite just a .307 BAbip. Almost every year, Cook's is able to get around all the hits he allows. Cook is successful because of how many ground balls he gives up. He owns a 1.37 ground ball to fly ball ratio for his career, and a 2.22 ground out to air out ratio. He was actually better in both of his categories in '10, allowing a 1.42 ground ball to fly ball ratio and a 2.29 ground out to air out ratio. The league averages for those stats are 0.79 and 1.07 respectively. So, Cook was pretty much pitching to contact the way he wants to pitch to contact, but the main problem for him was he walk rate. He owns just a 3.8 career K/9, which is minuscule, and his 4.4 K/9 in '10 actually tied his career-high. But, the problem for Cook in '10 was that he had a 3.7 BB/9, which isn't good in general, and which is obviously very bad for a pitcher was a low strikeout rate. His career BB/9 is 2.7, and that's where he needs to be. For his career, Cook has just a 1.37 K/BB ratio. The one season he had to 2 to 1 ratio was 2008, his lone All-Star appearance and his best season overall (16-9, 3.96). Even if he can't back to a 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio, Cook has to at least lower his walk rate. Cook had an interesting problem with 3-0 counts. Umpires are known to be most lenient with their strike zone on 3-0 counts, yet on 3-0 counts, Cook threw a strike just 51% of the time. For his career Cook has thrown a strike on 3-0 58% of the time, and 61% the past three seasons. Cook just has to challenge hitters a little bit more on 3-0 counts. Obviously, there are situations when you can't, but sometimes you might as well throw a decent pitch, and maybe the batter will miss-hit it. I'm sure Cook will be better on 3-0 counts in '11 and thus improve his walk rate. It's just a strange thing to suddenly decline in. If Cook can improve his walk rate, he'll get back to his 4.33 career ERA, and maybe a bit better. Cook will be a better pitcher in '11 for the Rockies.
There are three candidates for the final spot in the Rockies' rotation: the frontrunner, Jason Hammel, Felipe Paulino, and Esmil Rogers. Hammel came over to the Rockies in a trade in April of 2009, and the 28 year old right-hander had a good year for the Rockies, going 10-8 with a 4.33 ERA, 133 K's, and just 42 walks in 30 starts, 4 RA's, and 176.2 IP. His problems were that he allowed 203 hits, over a hit per inning at 10.3 per 9, and 17 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. In '10, allowing over a hit per inning again hurt him, and although he went 10-9, he posted a 4.81 ERA, striking out 141 and walking 47 in 30 starts and 177.2 IP. He allowed 201 hits, actually slightly less than '09 at 10.2 per 9, and 18 homers for the same 0.9 HR/9. Why did Hammel post an ERA nearly a half-run higher in '10 than in '09 considering he had such similar stats otherwise? It wasn't BAbip: no matter what I'm about to conclude, Hammel is due for a better year in '11 because he has allowed BAbip's of .332 and .335 the past 2 years. His line drive percentage remained exactly the same (22%), and so did his ground ball to fly ball ratio (0.87). His IP% (in-play percentage) actually went down from 73% to 71% and his XBH% (extra base hit percentage) went down from 8.4% to 7.1%. The only negative increases for Hammel were his walk rate (2.1 BB/9 to 2.4) and his HR/FB (percentage of fly balls allowed that went for homers), which increased from 6.2% to 6.6%. So, there goes all the other stats I've ever mentioned. His WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) increased from 1.387 to 1.396, but that was because his walk rate increased. So, why was Hammel worse in '10 than '09? Quality start percentage (QS%). Hammel's QS% decreased from 50% to 47%. He just wasn't as consistent (if 50% counts as consistent at all). And why was that? The Rockies didn't give him as much run support (4.5 R/GS compared to 5.1 in '09). In 2009, Hammel allowed a .282 BA when the Rockies were ahead compared to .260 when the team was behind. He helped the Rockies get back into games. In '10, he allowed a .299 BA when ahead and .309 when behind, so it was harder for the Rockies to come back. And by the way, those declines from '09 to '10 are pure luck. Hammel's BAbip when ahead went up from .333 to .340 when ahead from '09 to '10, which isn't a huge increase, but his BAbip when behind shot up from .260 to .377, a ridiculous .117 increase (the difference between a .300 hitter and a .183 hitter). He should be fine in '10. He just got unlucky overall with his BAbip in both '09 and '10, and especially when he was behind in '10. You have to think that Hammel, if he has a league average .300 BAbip, will be able to at least get back to his 4.33 ERA, and I wouldn't be completely shocked if he snuck into the 3.00's at 3.99 or something. Hammel hit just .105 with 2 RBI, although he did have 5 sac bunts. You have to think Hammel will be the 5th starter for the Rockies once again in 2011, and he should definitely improve on his 2010 numbers.
Might as well go through Paulino and Rogers as well, even though they're undoubtedly underdogs for the 5th starter job. Paulino is a 27 year old right-hander, but even though he has a leg up on Hammel in terms of age, you can't like his 2010 numbers (or his 2009 numbers for that matter). In 2010, he went just 1-9 for the Astros, with a 5.11 ERA, 83 K's, and 46 walks in 15 starts, 4 RA's, and 91.2 IP. He allowed 95 hits, over a hit per inning, although he did allow just 4 home runs, 0.4 per 9. He doesn't seem like the kind of player you would trade your starting second baseman (Clint Barmes) for. But, the Rockies are looking past Paulino's 'regular' stats. He allowed a .340 BAbip in '10, so he was obviously very unlucky, and it also put him into more pressure situations. Maybe he could post an ERA in the 4.30 range like seemingly every other Rockies pitcher and get a few wins. Also, what was crazy in '10 was that Paulino allowed almost no hard contact. Just 14% of the balls in play against him were line drives (MLB average: 19%). Paulino will probably allow a few more homers in '10 considering he allowed just a 2.9% HR/FB (MLB average 7.5%), but if his BAbip returns to neutral, he'll still be a pretty decent pitcher. You have to think that even if Paulino doesn't win a starting job, the Rockies will use him on the major league roster in some capacity. Again, why else would they trade their starting second baseman? If he doesn't beat out Hammel for the 5th starter job, I'm sure he'll stick as a long reliever, although his if his brief relieving history (12.39 ERA in 13 appearances) is any indication, the Rockies have a problem. Paulino was actually a pretty good hitter in '10, hitting .292 with 3 sac bunts, although he did not drive in any runs. Paulino may not end up being the 5th starter for the Rockies, but you have to think he'll be on the major league roster.
If Paulino is an underdog for the 5th starter job, 25 year old Esmil Rogers is a 30-1 long-shot. After appearing in 1 game in 2009, Rogers spent extended time in the majors for the first time in his career, and it wasn't pretty. Rogers went 2-3 with a 6.13 ERA, 66 K's, 26 walks, and 2 holds in 8 starts, 20 RA's, and 72 IP. His main problem was that he allowed 94 hits, a really bad ratio of 11.8 per 9 inning, although he did allow just 5 homers, good for a 0.6 HR/9. Even though he had a 2.0 K/BB and he didn't allow too many homers, you just can't give up that many hits. But, why did he give up so many hits? He was about the unluckiest man in the world, giving up a .390 BAbip. But, part of the reason that Rogers had such a high BAbip was because 25% of the balls put into play against him were line drives, compared to the MLB average of 19%. Line drives are less likely to be caught, and since he allowed more line drives, he had more balls hit against him that were less likely to be caught, leading to his higher BAbip. Also, he had a 4.59 ERA and a 9.6 H/9 in the minors even though he had a .283 BAbip in the minors. (That's not including sac flies against him- I can't find that stat. To put this in perspective, if you took away sac flies from Rogers 2010 BAbip, he would have had an even worse .401 BAbip, so let's say he had a .293 BAbip in the minors. If someone knows where to find sac flies against a pitcher in the minors, please comment.) He also had a 5.75 ERA at Triple-A in '10. It seems pretty clear that Rogers needs more time in the minors. I doubt Rogers will make the Rockies out of spring training, although we may see him in the majors later in the year.
Bullpen:
Matt Belisle had a big year as a middle reliever for the Rockies in '11, going 7-5 with a 2.93 ERA, 91 K's, just 16 walks, 21 holds, and 1 save in 76 RA's and 92 IP. The 30 year old right-hander allowed 84 hits, an 8.2 H/9, and 7 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. The homers were his one problem; he allowed a .314 BAbip, so his H/9 will go down even more when his BAbip goes back down to neutral. He's a good reliever, although you have to worry a bit about the homers. Rafael Betancourt, who will turn 36 in April, went 5-1 for the Rockies in '10 with a 3.61 ERA, 89 K's, just 8 walks (good for an 11.13 K/BB that was better than Cliff Lee), 23 holds, and 1 save in 72 RA's in 62.1 IP. He allowed just 52 hits, 7.5 per 9, but 9 homers, which amounted to a terrible 1.3 HR/9. Betancourt was a bit unlucky in terms of HR/FB (9.9%), but he also allowed a 24% LD%, and some of those line drives were going to be home runs. If Betancourt can keep the homers down, he will be a good reliever (when he had a 0.4 HR/9 in 32 RA's for Colorado in '09, he had a great 1.73 ERA). Matt Lindstrom, a 31 year old reliever acquired from the Astros for a couple of prospects this offseason, had a decent year splitting the closer duties with Brandon Lyon, going 2-5 with a 4.39 ERA, 43 K's, 20 walks, 4 holds, and 23 saves (6 blown saves) in 58 RA's and 53.1 IP. He allowed 68 hits, a terrible ratio of 11.5 per 9, and 5 homers, a 0.8 HR/9. He actually had a 2.48 ERA on July 30th before collapsing to the tune of a 10.13 ERA the rest of the year, although he did allow a .385 ERA. Overall on the year, he had a crazy .362 BAbip, which was actually not so crazy when you consider he has a .340 career BAbip. But, maybe he will finally get lucky in '11 and allow a .300 BAbip and allow a 9.0 H/9 or better. He did manage an 8.9 H/9 from '07 to '08, so it's not that far-fetched. He also had a 3.11 ERA for '07 to '08, so maybe the Rockies could get that, especially because Lindstrom won't be closing. I would expect a significantly better ERA from Lindstrom in '11, maybe around 3.50. 26 year old left-hander Matt Reynolds had a nice big league debut in '10, going 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA, 17 K's, just 5 walks, and 2 holds in 21 RA's and 18 IP. He allowed just 10 hits, a 5.0 H/9, but 2 homers, 1.0 per 9. It was a very small sample size, and you also have to realize that Reynolds was ridiculously lucky, allowing just a .186 BAbip, although he did allow just a 61% IP% (MLB average 69%). Maybe Reynolds isn't really quite as good as he was in '10, but considering how low his IP% was, I would think he could still post an ERA in the 2.90 range. He also had a 2.62 ERA in 50 RA's at Triple-A in '10 despite a BAbip above .300 (I don't exactly what it is again because I don't know how many sac flies he allowed), so that might be his upside. Reynolds is a good lefty reliever for the Rockies. There are 4 other relievers competing for the final spot or the final two spots in the Rockies' bullpen: lefty Franklin Morales and righties Edgmer Escalona and Matt Daley. Morales is entering his third major league season at age 25. Through June 13th, Morales had a 3.21 ERA, but just like Lindstrom, he collapsed to end the year, posting a 9.20 ERA, although when he was sent down to the minors, he posted a 2.67 ERA in 24 RA's. On the year in the majors, Morales went 0-4 with a 6.28 ERA, 27 K's, 24 walks (certainly way too many), and 1 hold in 35 RA's and 28.2 IP. He allowed 28 hits, pretty much a hit per inning (8.8 H/9), but 5 homers, a really bad 1.6 HR/9 ratio. Even though Morales had a 6.28 ERA, you would think that at age 25, he deserves another chance, right? He just needs to work on his control! But, you could argue back that Reynolds has passed Morales and he'll be the lefty in the bullpen. I would compromise if Morales doesn't impress the Rockies in spring training: I would start Morales in the minors, let him straighten himself out, and then bring him up to the majors. I don't think Morales will start 2011 at the big league level. Escalona, 24, posted a 1.50 ERA in his 5-game big league debut in '10, but it was a different story for him in the minors. He went 3-5 with a 6.00 ERA, 74 K's, 32 walks, and 1 save (I can't find his minor league hold count) in 57 RA's and 69 IP. He allowed 66 hits, 8.6 per 9, but an unbelievable count of 17 home runs as a reliever, which amounted to a 2.2 HR/9 that was so terrible that even half of it(a 1.1 HR/9) would still be really bad for a reliever. It's 50-50 that Escalona even appears in 1 major league game in all of 2011 (well, as long as they don't just look at his major league stats). Daley appears to be the final member of the bullpen by default. Through June 10th, 2010, Daley had a 3.74 ERA. But, after that game, Daley went on the 60-day DL with a shoulder injury that sidelined him until September 10th. Overall in '10, Daley went 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA, 18 K's, 10 walks, and 7 holds in 28 RA's and 23.1 IP. He allowed 27 hits, over a hit per inning at 10.4 per 9, and 2 homers, 0.8 per 9. He had a .342 BAbip against him, so he was certainly unlucky, but he wasn't unlucky in any other regard. Maybe he could post an ERA in the 3.90 range or better with a .300 BAbip. But interestingly, when he had a .289 BAbip in 57 RA's in 2009, he had the same 4.24 ERA. But, the difference that year was that he had a 1.1 HR/9 that season. If he puts it all in '10, I am sure he could post an ERA in the 3.90 range. He's a decent reliever. The Rockies have a pretty good bullpen.
Bullpen:
Huston Street missed until late June in 2010 with a shoulder injury, but after that, the 2005 AL Rookie of the Year did pretty well, going 4-4 with a 3.61 ERA, 45 K's, just 11 walks, and 20 saves in 44 RA's and 47.1 IP. At age 27, Street now has a 3.00 career ERA, and 149 career saves, which are good numbers, but he has to manage to stay healthy. He has never saved 40 games, and he's only saved 35 games twice (2006 and 2009). Will 2011 finally be the season where Street saves 40 games? Street's response to his terrible August in 2010 is certainly encouraging. Through July 31st of 2010, Street had a 2.65 ERA, 6 saves, and just 1 blown save in 16 RA's. But then, he had an awful August. He posted just a 6.06 ERA, saving 7 games and blowing 3 in 16 games. But, he responded in a big way in September. He appeared in 12 games, posting a 1.93 ERA, saving 7 games and blowing just 1. Street overcame adversity, and was better because of it. Will he post a 1.93 ERA again in 2011 and save 40 games? After watching his September, maybe. (I would say a 2.70 ERA and exactly 40 saves). Street, when healthy, is a good closer for the Rockies. He better stay healthy and live up to his potential in 2011.
Overview:
The Rockies have a very good offense, headlined by perennial MVP candidates Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. They're decent defensively. The rotation isn't great, but it's good enough to keep the offense in games, and more often than not, the offense will come through. The bullpen is good enough. The Rockies will contend, and even if they can't not off the defending champion Giants for the NL West crown, they will certainly contend for the wild card.
2010 record: 83-79
Prediction: 90-72, 2nd in NL West
After all my NL previews, I'll pick my wild card.
Monday, February 7, 2011
The Padres were the biggest surprise of the 2010 MLB season, losing the NL West division title to the Giants on the last day of the season. Will they be able to win the division in '11?
Catcher:
Each of the past three seasons, the Padres have given Nick Hundley a shot to win the starting catching job. He failed to unseat Josh Bard, Henry Blanco, and Yorvit Torrealba, and now, at 27 years old, it's make or brake for him. In order to become the starting catcher and keep the job, he's going to have to play much better offensively. His batting averages have improved every year in the majors, from .237 to .238 to .249, but come on! .249 is still a bad batting average. It can be overcome by a great on-base percentage or great power, but Hundley has done neither of those! In three seasons and 727 at-bats, he has 21 homers. That's not terrible power (it comes it 15 homers for a full season), but he has just a .302 career OBP. That's unacceptable. The problem for the Padres is that the last time Hundley had an OBP over .320 at any level for more than 5 games was 2007 at Double-A. That was his best minor league season. He hit .247 with 23 doubles, 20 homers, 72 RBI, and a .324 OBP in 101 games. He better get back to somewhere near that level, or the Padres will need to make a trade with Rob Johnson, who hit .191 for the Mariners in '10, serving as his primary backup. Hundley profiles as a backup catcher. He improved defensively every year in the minors and although he had a terrible 2009 defensively, he rebounded in '10 to post a .994 Fld% and a 29% CS%. (Johnson posted a .990 Fld% and led the AL with 9 passed balls, although he did post a 34% CS%.) The Padres desparately need Hundley to finally show his potential offensively.
First base:
Bye, bye A-Gon. After the big trade of Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox, the Padres now have Brad Hawpe lined up to start at first base. The Padres are replacing Gonzalez, who hit .298 with 31 homers, 101 RBI, and a .393 OBP with Hawpe, who hit .245 with 9 homers, 44 RBI, and a .338 OBP. Hawpe had an off-year in '10, but wow. From 2006 through 2009, Hawpe hit .288 with an average of 25 homers, 93 RBI, and a 384 OBP per season. But, that was at Coors. He's moving to the worst hitters park in baseball, Petco Park. Converted to Petco (using baseball-reference.com's neutralized batting tool), Hawpe would have hit just .265 and averaged 22 homers, 77 RBI, and a .358 OBP per season. In '10 for the 2010 Padres, Hawpe would have hit .237 with 8 homers, 37 RBI, and a .322 OBP. Hawpe, who will turn 32 in June, better get back to his converted numbers from his prime if he's going to be the full-time starter. But, what if the Padres platoon him with the recently acquired Jorge Cantu? Hawpe, a lefty, has hit .288 versus righties compared to .245 versus lefties in his career, although he actually hit better against lefties in '10. Cantu meanwhile, hits about the same against righties and lefties. Cantu had an off-year in '10, hitting just .256 with 11 homers, 56 RBI, and a .304 OBP, although off-years have been the story of his ca/reer. Starting from 2004, let's go through his RBI totals: 17, 117, 62, 13, 95, 100, 56. He'/s due for either another off year or a good season. If he's hitting well, I'm sure he could supplant Hawpe if Hawpe hits like he did in '10 again. Defensively, Hawpe has logged just 9 games at first, posting an 1.000 Fld%, while Cantu has logged 261 and posted a .995 Fld%. I doubt Kyle Blanks will get very much playing time at 1st whether there's a platoon or not. He hit just .157 in 33 games in '10, although he was bothered by an elbow injury. Offensively, the Padres have no idea what they're going to get from Hawpe and Cantu, so first base could be a position of strength for them once again, or it could be a complete train wreck.
Second base:
The Padres have quite a bit more certainty at second base, having signed four-time Gold Glover and two-time All-Star Orlando Hudson as a free agent. Hudson isn't much of a hitter, but his .268 BA and .338 OBP were both above the league average, so he's not that bad either. He has displayed 10 homer power ('04 to '07, although we certainly won't see him hit 10 homers at Petco) and 10 SB speed ('07, '10) in the past. Defensively, he has never posted a fielding percentage below league average his entire career, and not only does he make very few errors, but also he has displayed great range. He's the complete package defensively for a second baseman. He'll be backed up by Everth Cabrera and Eric Patterson. Cabrera managed to be way worse than Hudson offensively (.208 BA, .279 OBP, but 10 stolen bases), and he's a complete disaster defensively (.966 Fld%, and terrible range). Patterson hit just .214 in '10, although he did somehow hit 6 homers and 5 triples and steal 11 bases in '10, and he survived second base with just a slightly below-average .976 Fld% in 14 games, but he owns just a .958 career Fld% at second base. Good thing he also plays the outfield. Hudson was a great signing for the Padres and will be great fit for them, but the depth behind him isn't so great.
Third base:
I still remember when Padres third baseman Chase Headley made his 2008 debut (he played in 8 games in '07) versus the Yankees and hit his first major league home run off of Kyle Farnsworth in the second game of the three-game set. Headley hasn't quite become the star I thought he would after watching that game and looking at his crazy stats his previous two years in the minors (.321, 33 homers, 118 RBI, 131 runs, .417 OBP), but he's a good player. In '10, he hit .264 with 29 doubles, 11 homers, 58 RBI, 77 runs, 17 stolen bases (he had 6 TOTAL stolen bases in the minors), and a .327 OBP in 161 games. Headley's hitting prowess has been sapped by Petco Park. Neutralized, he hit .283 with 32 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 87 runs, 19 stolen bases, and a .348 OBP. That's a little better. I feel like Headley is poised for a breakout season this year at age 27 (he'll turn 27 in May). Defensively, Headley is outstanding. He posted a significantly above-average .966 Fld%, and baseball-reference.com gave him a 1.5 dWAR (defensive wins above replacement; his offensive WAR was 2.2). Headley will be backed up by Cantu. The Padres have a nice situation at third base with Chase Headley.
Shortstop:
Jason Bartlett, acquired this offseason in a trade with the Rays, had one of the biggest disparities from year to year I've ever seen from '09 to '10 without getting injured. Appearing in just 2 less games than in '09, Bartlett hit .66 lower than '09 in '10 (.254), with 10 less homers (4), 19 less RBI (47), 19 less runs (71), 41 less hits (119), 19 less stolen bases (11), and a .65 lower OBP (.324). Wow. And it was his age-30 season! Isn't that when you're supposed to break out? Well, breaking out at 29 isn't that uncommon, but flaming out at 30? What confuses me even more is Bartlett's '08 to '09 disparity, specifically the jump from 1 homer to 14 (he did appear in 9 less games). Fine, he broke out, but 14 times as many homers? 14 homers undoubtedly doesn't jump out you to tell you that a player used PED's, but 14 times as many homers? People thought Jose Bautista was using steroids when his amount of homers jumped 4.15 times from '09 to '10 (13 to 54). Less than a third of Bartlett's jump! Fine, 54 homers and 14 homers are a huge didfference, but come on! Bartlett went from 1 homer to 14 homers, back down to 4 homers. Something's up. Let's try to use stats to reconcile this. Well, first of all, Bartlett's BA went down .66 because his BAbip went down .65 from .364 to .299. OK, that makes sense. But, homers are pretty much unaffected by BAbip: 95% or more of homers are impossible to make a play on (i.e. rob). Well, Bartlett's ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) went up (that's a bad thing) from 0.53 to 0.78. He didn't hit as many fly balls (155 compared to 128 according to b-r), so not as many went out for home runs. That's my only possible explanation. I don't think the Padres were very smart to acquire Bartlett and it was a great move by the Rays to trade him because he won't hit .320, probably not .300 again unless he starts putting up .360 BAbip's again. From '09 to '10, Bartlett improved from a .962 Fld% to a .977 Fld% (both of which are above-average), although that was because he displayed worse range in '10. He's a slightly above-average fielder. He'll be backed up by Everth Cabrera. I really don't think Bartlett will a good player for the Padres in '11.
Left Field:
Ryan Ludwick will be starting for the Padres in left field in 2011. He put up decent overall numbers offensively in 2010, hitting .251 with 27 doubles, 17 homers, 69 RBI, and a .325 OBP in 136 games, but after being traded to the Padres at the trade deadline, he hit just .211 with 6 homers and 26 RBI in 59 games. That has to be somewhat worrisome. Even though his overall numbers were OK, remember that he hit .265 with 22 homers and 97 RBI in '10, and .299 with 37 homers and 119 RBI in '09. A stat that most illustrates his decline is his slugging percentage: he slugged .591 in '08, .447 in '09, and then .418 in '10. But then check out his OPS's in those years: .966 to .775 to .743. Interestingly, although Ludwick was very lucky in '08 to the tune of a .342 BAbip, his BAbip stayed around the same in '09 and '10, .296 and .297. The big difference between '09 and '10 for Ludwick was strikeouts: he struck out 121 times in '10 compared to 106 times in '09. Ludwick just had a little bit off an off-year in '10. The past four years, he has averaged a .272 BA with 22 homers and 83 RBI. I think he should be able to get closer to that in '11. Ludwick will turn 33 in July, but pending an injury, the worst we'd see from him would probably be a repeat of his 2010 stats. Ludwick has been mostly a right fielder defensively in his career, but he does have a .995 Fld% in 108 games in left field including 79 startss and he has displayed good range. Ludwick will be backed up by Chris Denorfia and Aaron Cunningham. Denorfia actually displayed quite a bit of pop as a backup outfielder, hitting .271 with 15 doubles, 9 homers, 36 RBI, 8 stolen bases, and a 335 OBP in 99 games. Considering how well Denorfia plays left field and right field (he has never made an error in 109 games), it sort of makes you wonder why Denorfia has never been a starting outfielder for any team, but you have to realize that Denorfia hasn't hit double-digit home runs at any level since 2005 between Double-A and Triple-A in the Reds organization. Unfortunately for him at age 30, he'll probably never get a shot. He's certainly a fine backup outfielder, though. Cunningham is a bit of a different story. First of all, he will turn 25 in April. Secondly, unlike Denorfia, he was considered a top prospect as soon as entering the 2009 season (he's ranked as the A's 3rd best prospect here). Cunnigham as been traded from the White Sox to the D-backs to the A's to the Padres, but he was solid pretty much the whole way through, averaging a .311 BA, 14 homers, 58 RBI, 18 stolen bases, and a .383 OBP per season. He then followed that up by hitting just .251 with 17 doubles, 7 homers, 45 RBI, just 2 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 80 games in '09 at Triple-A, although he did hit .288 with 12 doubles, a homer, 15 RBI, and a .331 OBP in the majors. You have to wonder if the Padres will pretty much end his development by keeping him in the majors as the 5th outfielder. Defensively, Cunningham is a mystery. In '08, Cunningham posted just a .933 Fld% in 18 games in left field. In '09, he posted just a .913 Fld% in 16 games in right field, although he did play errorless ball in 9 games in left field. Then in '10, he somehow played perfectly in 23 games in right field, 27 in left, and even 2 in center. He has just a .977 career Fld% in the minors in the outfield, so I guess he's not great defensively, but we'll have to see a bigger sample size in the majors. Overall for left field, the Padres have a nice situation with Ludwick being a pretty good player and with good depth behind him.
Centerfield:
Marlins castaway Cameron Maybin is lined up to be the Padres' centerfielder in '10. They're hoping he finally lives up to his potential. Maybin was a top-10 prospect by Baseball America entering the '07 to '09 seasons, but owns just a .246 BA in the majors with just a .313 OBP. Maybin has now played in 168 games, about 1 full season, and hit .246 with 24 doubles, 13 homers, 45 RBI, 5 triples, 135 hits, 93 runs, 19 stolen bases, and a .313 OBP. Those are decent numbers, but he hasn't been able to put it together for a whole season, with his career high in games being 82 in 2010. Turning 24 in April, Maybin is at a career crossroads: he has to prove that he will be an effective big league regular. One stat I omitted from Maybin's career total was his 172 strikeouts. That almost forces him into a comparison with Austin Jackson, the AL's leader with 170 strikeouts. In Jackson's rookie season in 2010, he hit .293 with 34 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 10 triples, 181 hits, 103 runs, 27 stolen bases, and a .345 OBP in 151 games. They're pretty far off, but I want to focus on the difference in BA: Maybin hit just .246 while Jackson hit .293 even though Maybin had just two more strikeouts. Maybe Maybin just isn't a great hitter for average, but there's something going on. Maybin has hit just .138 with 2 strikes in his career, and just .136 with the pitcher ahead. Jackson hit .193 with 2 strikes in '10, and .246 with the pitcher ahead. Jackson's averages, .193 and .246, certainly aren't great averages, but they're a heck of a lot better than .138 and .136. Even though Jackson struck out so many times as well, he wasn't completely helpless with 2 strikes, getting 66 of his 181 hits. Maybin was helpless, getting just 42 hits. Jackson struck out a lot of times, 25.2% of his plate appearances, but Maybin struck out even more, 28.2% of his plate appearances. If Jackson had struck out 28.2% of the time, his BA would have been quite a bit closer to Maybin. The Padres need Maybin to take a major step forward, and that has to begin with better performance with two strikes. Will Maybin even completely fix this problem? I would doubt it. He'll strikeout a lot if he remains a starter. But, if he can get that strikeout percentage down to Jackson's, that would really make him a much better player. I think we'll see some improvement from Maybin in '11. Defensively, Maybin has a .987 career Fld% in centerfield, which is a little bit below average, but he's shown incredible range and he should be fine defensively. He will be backed up by Denorfia and Patterson. 2011 will be a very important season for Maybin, and the Padres better hope he can step up.
Right field:
28 year old Princeton alum Will Venable is going to be the Padres' right fielder again in '11 after a nice performance in '10. He hit .245 with 11 doubles, 13 homers, 51 RBI, 7 triples, 29 stolen bases, and a .324 OBP in 131 games. He posted a .980 Fld% in right field with good range, and a .984 Fld% in the outfield overall. He's a solid player. Venable's big problem is hitting lefties as a lefty hitter. He hit just .154 against them with only 2 home runs. If Venable's struggles against lefties continue, maybe we could see Denorfia make some starts in right against lefties. Denorfia does have a .290 career BA against lefties. Hawpe and Cunningham will also back up Venable. Venable is a pretty good player in right field for the Padres, at least against righties.
The Padres' amazing pitching staff in 2010 nearly carried them to the playoffs. Are they still THAT good?
Starting Rotation:
Mat Latos, at just 22 years old, blossomed into the Padres' ace in 2010. He went 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA and 189 K's compared to just 50 walks in 31 starts and 184.2 IP. He was just plain incredible. His 9.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 150 hits allowed (7.6 H/9) are all amazing. He also allowed just 16 homers, 0.8 per 9 innings. But, was he really dominant, or was he just very lucky? Well, somewhat. He had a .275 BAbip, which was below the league average, but not by that much. Accordingly, his FIP (fielding independent pitching equivlent of ERA) was 3.00, which is still very good. Even if his ERA goes up to 3.00, that's only a 0.08 difference! He did suffer a freak injury while sneezing, but that shouldn't be a problem in the future. At the plate, Latos hit just .111 with no walks, but he did hit 2 doubles and a homer and drive in 3 runs. Mat Latos is a really good pitcher and he'll be the ace of the Padres for years to come.
Southpaw Clayton Richard had a good year for the Padres in '10, going 14-9 with a 3.75 ERA and 153 K's in 33 starts and 201.2 IP. But, he had 78 walks, 3.5 per 9 innings, a less than 2.0 K/BB ratio, and 206 hits allowed, more than a hit per inning. He did allow just 16 homers, 0.7 per 9. The homer rate was great, but considering how many walks and hits Richard allowed, was he lucky to have a 3.75 ERA? Somewhat at least. He had a .315 BAbip, so he was unlucky, but in high leverage situations (high pressure situations such as bases loaded with two outs), he allowed just a .244 BA and .285 BAbip. He was lucky when it mattered most. The good news for Richard is that when you put his BAbip and BAbip in high leverage situations back to neutral, he'll probably have around the same ERA. Hitting-wise, Richard hit .148 with 5 RBI, although he did have just a .220 BAbip. Richard is a good 2nd or 3rd starter.
There are five good candidates for the last 3 spots in the Padres' rotation: Wade LeBlanc, Tim Stauffer, Cory Luebke, ex-Red Aaron Harang, and ex-Yankee Dustin Moseley.
LeBlanc, a 26 year old lefty, was OK as the Padres' 5th starter in '10, going 8-12 with 4.25 ERA and 110 K's compared to 51 walks in 25 starts, a relief appearance, and 146.1 IP. His big problems though, were that he allowed 157 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.7 hits per 9 innings, and 24 homers, a bad ratio of 1.5 per 9. He was a little bit unlucky, allowing a .309 BAbip. LeBlanc was strangely bad against lefties, allowing a .308 BA (although lefties did have a .353 BAbip against him). Despite all the baserunners, LeBlanc was pretty good at limiting the damage, allowing a .237 BAA with RISP and just a .214 BA with 2 outs and RISP. LeBlanc was a pretty great hitting pitcher in '10, hitting .295 with an RBI. LeBlanc is a solid candidate for a starting job.
Tim Stauffer, a right-hander who will turn 29 in June, worked primarily as a reliever in '10 due to an over-abundance of starting pitchers, and he did well, going 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA, 61 K's, and 24 walks in 25 RA's (relief appearances), 7 starts, and 82.2 IP. (He somehow did not record a hold.) He posted a 1.83 ERA as a starter and a 1.87 ERA as a reliever. He gave up just 65 hits, 7.1 per 9, and 3 homers, good for an incredible 0.3 HR/9 ratio. But, he was considerably lucky, allowing a .266 BAbip. But, in 2009, Stauffer allowed a pretty much average .294 BAbip and posted a 3.58 ERA. The Padres would certainly take that. Stauffer hit .176 in '10 with 2 RBI. Stauffer had a great year in '10 due to great luck, but his success in 2009 showed that he's a fine pitcher even with average luck. Stauffer is almost a lock for a spot in the Padres' rotation.
Right-hander Cory Luebke, who will turn 26 in March, made his major league debut in '10, going 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA in 3 starts and a RA. He had a great year in 2010 in the minors between Double-A and Triple-A, going 10-1 with a 2.68 ERA, 88 K's, and 29 walks in 17 starts, 2 RA's, and 114 IP. He allowed just 83 hits, a great ratio of 6.6 per 9, and 8 homers, 0.6 per 9. But, he allowed just a .234 BAbip at Double-A and a .225 BAbip at Triple-A. Going through his minor league seasons, at three levels, Low-A in '08, High-A in '09, and Double-A in '09 he had BAbip's relatively close to .300. Leubke got away with the High BAbip's at Low-A in '08 and High-A in '09, still posting ERA's of 2.34 and 2.40, but he posted a 3.70 ERA at Double-A in '09. If Double-A could beat him when he got unlucky, obviously major league hitters could. Luebke wasn't so lucky when he hit, hitting just .171 with an RBI. I would be scared to have Luebke in my major league rotation right now.
This offseason , the Padres signed former Reds ace Aaron Harang to a one-year contract worth 3.5 million dollars. with an option for 2012. Seems like quite a risk. Harang's last season with an ERA under 4.00 was 2007, and he'll turn 33 in May. In '10, Harang went 6-7 with a 5.32 ERA, 82 K's, and 38 walks in 20 starts, 2 RA's, and 111.2 IP. He allowed 139 hits, a scary ratio of 11.2 per 9 innings, and 16 homers, 1.3 per 9. He would seem to be a pitcher worth staying away from. But, you have to notice his .342 BAbip in '10. That's unlucky. His FIP was 4.95, not great, but not that bad either. How bad can Harang be? He has a 4.33 ERA. The Padres have to hope that Harang will be able at least to get back to that in '11, especially because he'll pitch half his games at Petco Park. Harang hit .135 with 2 RBI in '10. The Padres are hoping that Harang's luck improves, and while he may never be an ace again, they're hoping he can at least be a decent pitcher. Pending a complete collapse, Harang will be in the Padres rotation.
Dustin Moseley made a halfway decent comeback from a variety of injuries in 2010 for the Yankees, going 4-4 with a 4.96 ERA, 33 K's, and 27 walks in 9 starts, 7 RA's, and 65.1 IP. He allowed just above a hit per inning, giving up 66 hits, and he allowed 13 homers, 1.8 per 9. He was pretty bad, and he way lucky enough to have a .261 BAbip. He doesn't seem like a good rotation candiadate to me. Maybe he could fit in the bullpen though. He has a 4.65 career ERA in the bullpen, including a 4.56 ERA and 4 holds in 38 relief appearances in '07, his only year spent primarily in relief. He signed a major league contract, so we should see him in the majors as a reliever. Unless he dominates in spring training, he will not be a starting pitcher for the Padres in '11.
It seems pretty clear to me that Stauffer, LeBlanc, and Harang should be 3-4-5 in the Padres rotation.
Bullpen:
Luke Gregerson, who will turn 27 in May, had a great year in '10 as a workhorse setup man, going 4-7 with a 3.22 ERA, 89 K's, just 18 walks, an astounding 40 holds, and 2 saves in 80 RA's and 78.1 IP. Look at these stats: amazing 10.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9, a decent 0.9 HR/9 ratio, and a ridiculous 5.4 H/9 ratio. Wow. He gave up just a few too many homers (8), but other than that he was great. One slight problem: he was the luckiest man alive with a .217 BAbip. Neutralized, he had a 3.84 ERA. Expect something along those lines in 2011. He'll still appear in a ton of games, though. Mike Adams, who will turn 33 in July, was even better than Gregerson, going 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA, 73 K's, just 23 walks, and 37 holds in 70 RA's and 66.2 IP. His ratios were a 9.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9, and a 6.5 H/9. THe homer ratios were the big difference in ERA between Gregerson and Adams. Was he lucky? Of course, but not as lucky as Gregerson, which is a good thing. He had .271 BAbip against him. Neutralized, he had a 1.94 ERA in '10. Who in the world wouldn't take that? He's a great reliever. And Joe Thatcher may have been better than Adams! Thatcher, a 29 year old lefty, went 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA, 45 K's, just 7 walks, and 12 holds in 65 RA's and 35 IP. He did pitch a lot less innings than Adams and Gregerson. He allowed just 23 hits, 5.9 per 9, and only 1 homer, good for 0.3 HR/9. He also had a .275 BAbip, which is less lucky than Adams. Lefties hit just .197 against him (righties .172). He's a great lefty specialist. Ernesto Frieri, who will turn 26 in July, is another great reliever. He went 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA, 41 K's, 17 walks, and 7 holds in 33 RA's and 31.2 IP. He allowed 18 hits, 5.1 per 9, and 2 homers, 0.6 per 9. He was very lucky, having just a .235 BAbip against him. Neutralized, he had a 2.10 ERA, but who can complain? The Padres' relievers were very lucky, and even if their luck evens out, they'll still have a shutdown bullpen. Might be the best bullpen I've ever seen.
Closer:
Slamming the door for the Padres is Heath Bell. In '10, he went 6-1 with a 1.93 ERA, 86 K's, 28 walks, and 47 saves, an impressive number, in 67 RA's and 70 IP. He allowed 56 hits, 7.2 per 9, and just 1 homer, good for an unbelievable 0.1 HR/9. And do you know the craziest part of any of his stats? He was unlucky in '10, allowing a .329 BAbip. Wow. He's just plain ridiculous.
Overview:
The Padres are a pretty bad hitting team, especially with Adrian Gonzalez gone, but they are very good defensively, and have great pitching. Their rotation may not be quite as great as it was in 2010, but their bullpen is incredible and should carry the team. The pitching will keep this team in contention, maybe even getting them to the postseason as the wild card or even NL West champs if the Giants and Rockies slip up. If this team can win those 2-1 games, they'll go far. But, the lack of quality hitting will cost them.
2010 Record: 90-72
Prediction: 88-74, 3rd in NL West
The Padres will contend if... they have some sort of offense, Stauffer and LeBlanc step up, Harang has a bounce-back year, and if the bullpen remains untouchable.
Catcher:
Each of the past three seasons, the Padres have given Nick Hundley a shot to win the starting catching job. He failed to unseat Josh Bard, Henry Blanco, and Yorvit Torrealba, and now, at 27 years old, it's make or brake for him. In order to become the starting catcher and keep the job, he's going to have to play much better offensively. His batting averages have improved every year in the majors, from .237 to .238 to .249, but come on! .249 is still a bad batting average. It can be overcome by a great on-base percentage or great power, but Hundley has done neither of those! In three seasons and 727 at-bats, he has 21 homers. That's not terrible power (it comes it 15 homers for a full season), but he has just a .302 career OBP. That's unacceptable. The problem for the Padres is that the last time Hundley had an OBP over .320 at any level for more than 5 games was 2007 at Double-A. That was his best minor league season. He hit .247 with 23 doubles, 20 homers, 72 RBI, and a .324 OBP in 101 games. He better get back to somewhere near that level, or the Padres will need to make a trade with Rob Johnson, who hit .191 for the Mariners in '10, serving as his primary backup. Hundley profiles as a backup catcher. He improved defensively every year in the minors and although he had a terrible 2009 defensively, he rebounded in '10 to post a .994 Fld% and a 29% CS%. (Johnson posted a .990 Fld% and led the AL with 9 passed balls, although he did post a 34% CS%.) The Padres desparately need Hundley to finally show his potential offensively.
First base:
Bye, bye A-Gon. After the big trade of Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox, the Padres now have Brad Hawpe lined up to start at first base. The Padres are replacing Gonzalez, who hit .298 with 31 homers, 101 RBI, and a .393 OBP with Hawpe, who hit .245 with 9 homers, 44 RBI, and a .338 OBP. Hawpe had an off-year in '10, but wow. From 2006 through 2009, Hawpe hit .288 with an average of 25 homers, 93 RBI, and a 384 OBP per season. But, that was at Coors. He's moving to the worst hitters park in baseball, Petco Park. Converted to Petco (using baseball-reference.com's neutralized batting tool), Hawpe would have hit just .265 and averaged 22 homers, 77 RBI, and a .358 OBP per season. In '10 for the 2010 Padres, Hawpe would have hit .237 with 8 homers, 37 RBI, and a .322 OBP. Hawpe, who will turn 32 in June, better get back to his converted numbers from his prime if he's going to be the full-time starter. But, what if the Padres platoon him with the recently acquired Jorge Cantu? Hawpe, a lefty, has hit .288 versus righties compared to .245 versus lefties in his career, although he actually hit better against lefties in '10. Cantu meanwhile, hits about the same against righties and lefties. Cantu had an off-year in '10, hitting just .256 with 11 homers, 56 RBI, and a .304 OBP, although off-years have been the story of his ca/reer. Starting from 2004, let's go through his RBI totals: 17, 117, 62, 13, 95, 100, 56. He'/s due for either another off year or a good season. If he's hitting well, I'm sure he could supplant Hawpe if Hawpe hits like he did in '10 again. Defensively, Hawpe has logged just 9 games at first, posting an 1.000 Fld%, while Cantu has logged 261 and posted a .995 Fld%. I doubt Kyle Blanks will get very much playing time at 1st whether there's a platoon or not. He hit just .157 in 33 games in '10, although he was bothered by an elbow injury. Offensively, the Padres have no idea what they're going to get from Hawpe and Cantu, so first base could be a position of strength for them once again, or it could be a complete train wreck.
Second base:
The Padres have quite a bit more certainty at second base, having signed four-time Gold Glover and two-time All-Star Orlando Hudson as a free agent. Hudson isn't much of a hitter, but his .268 BA and .338 OBP were both above the league average, so he's not that bad either. He has displayed 10 homer power ('04 to '07, although we certainly won't see him hit 10 homers at Petco) and 10 SB speed ('07, '10) in the past. Defensively, he has never posted a fielding percentage below league average his entire career, and not only does he make very few errors, but also he has displayed great range. He's the complete package defensively for a second baseman. He'll be backed up by Everth Cabrera and Eric Patterson. Cabrera managed to be way worse than Hudson offensively (.208 BA, .279 OBP, but 10 stolen bases), and he's a complete disaster defensively (.966 Fld%, and terrible range). Patterson hit just .214 in '10, although he did somehow hit 6 homers and 5 triples and steal 11 bases in '10, and he survived second base with just a slightly below-average .976 Fld% in 14 games, but he owns just a .958 career Fld% at second base. Good thing he also plays the outfield. Hudson was a great signing for the Padres and will be great fit for them, but the depth behind him isn't so great.
Third base:
I still remember when Padres third baseman Chase Headley made his 2008 debut (he played in 8 games in '07) versus the Yankees and hit his first major league home run off of Kyle Farnsworth in the second game of the three-game set. Headley hasn't quite become the star I thought he would after watching that game and looking at his crazy stats his previous two years in the minors (.321, 33 homers, 118 RBI, 131 runs, .417 OBP), but he's a good player. In '10, he hit .264 with 29 doubles, 11 homers, 58 RBI, 77 runs, 17 stolen bases (he had 6 TOTAL stolen bases in the minors), and a .327 OBP in 161 games. Headley's hitting prowess has been sapped by Petco Park. Neutralized, he hit .283 with 32 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 87 runs, 19 stolen bases, and a .348 OBP. That's a little better. I feel like Headley is poised for a breakout season this year at age 27 (he'll turn 27 in May). Defensively, Headley is outstanding. He posted a significantly above-average .966 Fld%, and baseball-reference.com gave him a 1.5 dWAR (defensive wins above replacement; his offensive WAR was 2.2). Headley will be backed up by Cantu. The Padres have a nice situation at third base with Chase Headley.
Shortstop:
Jason Bartlett, acquired this offseason in a trade with the Rays, had one of the biggest disparities from year to year I've ever seen from '09 to '10 without getting injured. Appearing in just 2 less games than in '09, Bartlett hit .66 lower than '09 in '10 (.254), with 10 less homers (4), 19 less RBI (47), 19 less runs (71), 41 less hits (119), 19 less stolen bases (11), and a .65 lower OBP (.324). Wow. And it was his age-30 season! Isn't that when you're supposed to break out? Well, breaking out at 29 isn't that uncommon, but flaming out at 30? What confuses me even more is Bartlett's '08 to '09 disparity, specifically the jump from 1 homer to 14 (he did appear in 9 less games). Fine, he broke out, but 14 times as many homers? 14 homers undoubtedly doesn't jump out you to tell you that a player used PED's, but 14 times as many homers? People thought Jose Bautista was using steroids when his amount of homers jumped 4.15 times from '09 to '10 (13 to 54). Less than a third of Bartlett's jump! Fine, 54 homers and 14 homers are a huge didfference, but come on! Bartlett went from 1 homer to 14 homers, back down to 4 homers. Something's up. Let's try to use stats to reconcile this. Well, first of all, Bartlett's BA went down .66 because his BAbip went down .65 from .364 to .299. OK, that makes sense. But, homers are pretty much unaffected by BAbip: 95% or more of homers are impossible to make a play on (i.e. rob). Well, Bartlett's ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) went up (that's a bad thing) from 0.53 to 0.78. He didn't hit as many fly balls (155 compared to 128 according to b-r), so not as many went out for home runs. That's my only possible explanation. I don't think the Padres were very smart to acquire Bartlett and it was a great move by the Rays to trade him because he won't hit .320, probably not .300 again unless he starts putting up .360 BAbip's again. From '09 to '10, Bartlett improved from a .962 Fld% to a .977 Fld% (both of which are above-average), although that was because he displayed worse range in '10. He's a slightly above-average fielder. He'll be backed up by Everth Cabrera. I really don't think Bartlett will a good player for the Padres in '11.
Left Field:
Ryan Ludwick will be starting for the Padres in left field in 2011. He put up decent overall numbers offensively in 2010, hitting .251 with 27 doubles, 17 homers, 69 RBI, and a .325 OBP in 136 games, but after being traded to the Padres at the trade deadline, he hit just .211 with 6 homers and 26 RBI in 59 games. That has to be somewhat worrisome. Even though his overall numbers were OK, remember that he hit .265 with 22 homers and 97 RBI in '10, and .299 with 37 homers and 119 RBI in '09. A stat that most illustrates his decline is his slugging percentage: he slugged .591 in '08, .447 in '09, and then .418 in '10. But then check out his OPS's in those years: .966 to .775 to .743. Interestingly, although Ludwick was very lucky in '08 to the tune of a .342 BAbip, his BAbip stayed around the same in '09 and '10, .296 and .297. The big difference between '09 and '10 for Ludwick was strikeouts: he struck out 121 times in '10 compared to 106 times in '09. Ludwick just had a little bit off an off-year in '10. The past four years, he has averaged a .272 BA with 22 homers and 83 RBI. I think he should be able to get closer to that in '11. Ludwick will turn 33 in July, but pending an injury, the worst we'd see from him would probably be a repeat of his 2010 stats. Ludwick has been mostly a right fielder defensively in his career, but he does have a .995 Fld% in 108 games in left field including 79 startss and he has displayed good range. Ludwick will be backed up by Chris Denorfia and Aaron Cunningham. Denorfia actually displayed quite a bit of pop as a backup outfielder, hitting .271 with 15 doubles, 9 homers, 36 RBI, 8 stolen bases, and a 335 OBP in 99 games. Considering how well Denorfia plays left field and right field (he has never made an error in 109 games), it sort of makes you wonder why Denorfia has never been a starting outfielder for any team, but you have to realize that Denorfia hasn't hit double-digit home runs at any level since 2005 between Double-A and Triple-A in the Reds organization. Unfortunately for him at age 30, he'll probably never get a shot. He's certainly a fine backup outfielder, though. Cunningham is a bit of a different story. First of all, he will turn 25 in April. Secondly, unlike Denorfia, he was considered a top prospect as soon as entering the 2009 season (he's ranked as the A's 3rd best prospect here). Cunnigham as been traded from the White Sox to the D-backs to the A's to the Padres, but he was solid pretty much the whole way through, averaging a .311 BA, 14 homers, 58 RBI, 18 stolen bases, and a .383 OBP per season. He then followed that up by hitting just .251 with 17 doubles, 7 homers, 45 RBI, just 2 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 80 games in '09 at Triple-A, although he did hit .288 with 12 doubles, a homer, 15 RBI, and a .331 OBP in the majors. You have to wonder if the Padres will pretty much end his development by keeping him in the majors as the 5th outfielder. Defensively, Cunningham is a mystery. In '08, Cunningham posted just a .933 Fld% in 18 games in left field. In '09, he posted just a .913 Fld% in 16 games in right field, although he did play errorless ball in 9 games in left field. Then in '10, he somehow played perfectly in 23 games in right field, 27 in left, and even 2 in center. He has just a .977 career Fld% in the minors in the outfield, so I guess he's not great defensively, but we'll have to see a bigger sample size in the majors. Overall for left field, the Padres have a nice situation with Ludwick being a pretty good player and with good depth behind him.
Centerfield:
Marlins castaway Cameron Maybin is lined up to be the Padres' centerfielder in '10. They're hoping he finally lives up to his potential. Maybin was a top-10 prospect by Baseball America entering the '07 to '09 seasons, but owns just a .246 BA in the majors with just a .313 OBP. Maybin has now played in 168 games, about 1 full season, and hit .246 with 24 doubles, 13 homers, 45 RBI, 5 triples, 135 hits, 93 runs, 19 stolen bases, and a .313 OBP. Those are decent numbers, but he hasn't been able to put it together for a whole season, with his career high in games being 82 in 2010. Turning 24 in April, Maybin is at a career crossroads: he has to prove that he will be an effective big league regular. One stat I omitted from Maybin's career total was his 172 strikeouts. That almost forces him into a comparison with Austin Jackson, the AL's leader with 170 strikeouts. In Jackson's rookie season in 2010, he hit .293 with 34 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 10 triples, 181 hits, 103 runs, 27 stolen bases, and a .345 OBP in 151 games. They're pretty far off, but I want to focus on the difference in BA: Maybin hit just .246 while Jackson hit .293 even though Maybin had just two more strikeouts. Maybe Maybin just isn't a great hitter for average, but there's something going on. Maybin has hit just .138 with 2 strikes in his career, and just .136 with the pitcher ahead. Jackson hit .193 with 2 strikes in '10, and .246 with the pitcher ahead. Jackson's averages, .193 and .246, certainly aren't great averages, but they're a heck of a lot better than .138 and .136. Even though Jackson struck out so many times as well, he wasn't completely helpless with 2 strikes, getting 66 of his 181 hits. Maybin was helpless, getting just 42 hits. Jackson struck out a lot of times, 25.2% of his plate appearances, but Maybin struck out even more, 28.2% of his plate appearances. If Jackson had struck out 28.2% of the time, his BA would have been quite a bit closer to Maybin. The Padres need Maybin to take a major step forward, and that has to begin with better performance with two strikes. Will Maybin even completely fix this problem? I would doubt it. He'll strikeout a lot if he remains a starter. But, if he can get that strikeout percentage down to Jackson's, that would really make him a much better player. I think we'll see some improvement from Maybin in '11. Defensively, Maybin has a .987 career Fld% in centerfield, which is a little bit below average, but he's shown incredible range and he should be fine defensively. He will be backed up by Denorfia and Patterson. 2011 will be a very important season for Maybin, and the Padres better hope he can step up.
Right field:
28 year old Princeton alum Will Venable is going to be the Padres' right fielder again in '11 after a nice performance in '10. He hit .245 with 11 doubles, 13 homers, 51 RBI, 7 triples, 29 stolen bases, and a .324 OBP in 131 games. He posted a .980 Fld% in right field with good range, and a .984 Fld% in the outfield overall. He's a solid player. Venable's big problem is hitting lefties as a lefty hitter. He hit just .154 against them with only 2 home runs. If Venable's struggles against lefties continue, maybe we could see Denorfia make some starts in right against lefties. Denorfia does have a .290 career BA against lefties. Hawpe and Cunningham will also back up Venable. Venable is a pretty good player in right field for the Padres, at least against righties.
The Padres' amazing pitching staff in 2010 nearly carried them to the playoffs. Are they still THAT good?
Starting Rotation:
Mat Latos, at just 22 years old, blossomed into the Padres' ace in 2010. He went 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA and 189 K's compared to just 50 walks in 31 starts and 184.2 IP. He was just plain incredible. His 9.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 150 hits allowed (7.6 H/9) are all amazing. He also allowed just 16 homers, 0.8 per 9 innings. But, was he really dominant, or was he just very lucky? Well, somewhat. He had a .275 BAbip, which was below the league average, but not by that much. Accordingly, his FIP (fielding independent pitching equivlent of ERA) was 3.00, which is still very good. Even if his ERA goes up to 3.00, that's only a 0.08 difference! He did suffer a freak injury while sneezing, but that shouldn't be a problem in the future. At the plate, Latos hit just .111 with no walks, but he did hit 2 doubles and a homer and drive in 3 runs. Mat Latos is a really good pitcher and he'll be the ace of the Padres for years to come.
Southpaw Clayton Richard had a good year for the Padres in '10, going 14-9 with a 3.75 ERA and 153 K's in 33 starts and 201.2 IP. But, he had 78 walks, 3.5 per 9 innings, a less than 2.0 K/BB ratio, and 206 hits allowed, more than a hit per inning. He did allow just 16 homers, 0.7 per 9. The homer rate was great, but considering how many walks and hits Richard allowed, was he lucky to have a 3.75 ERA? Somewhat at least. He had a .315 BAbip, so he was unlucky, but in high leverage situations (high pressure situations such as bases loaded with two outs), he allowed just a .244 BA and .285 BAbip. He was lucky when it mattered most. The good news for Richard is that when you put his BAbip and BAbip in high leverage situations back to neutral, he'll probably have around the same ERA. Hitting-wise, Richard hit .148 with 5 RBI, although he did have just a .220 BAbip. Richard is a good 2nd or 3rd starter.
There are five good candidates for the last 3 spots in the Padres' rotation: Wade LeBlanc, Tim Stauffer, Cory Luebke, ex-Red Aaron Harang, and ex-Yankee Dustin Moseley.
LeBlanc, a 26 year old lefty, was OK as the Padres' 5th starter in '10, going 8-12 with 4.25 ERA and 110 K's compared to 51 walks in 25 starts, a relief appearance, and 146.1 IP. His big problems though, were that he allowed 157 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.7 hits per 9 innings, and 24 homers, a bad ratio of 1.5 per 9. He was a little bit unlucky, allowing a .309 BAbip. LeBlanc was strangely bad against lefties, allowing a .308 BA (although lefties did have a .353 BAbip against him). Despite all the baserunners, LeBlanc was pretty good at limiting the damage, allowing a .237 BAA with RISP and just a .214 BA with 2 outs and RISP. LeBlanc was a pretty great hitting pitcher in '10, hitting .295 with an RBI. LeBlanc is a solid candidate for a starting job.
Tim Stauffer, a right-hander who will turn 29 in June, worked primarily as a reliever in '10 due to an over-abundance of starting pitchers, and he did well, going 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA, 61 K's, and 24 walks in 25 RA's (relief appearances), 7 starts, and 82.2 IP. (He somehow did not record a hold.) He posted a 1.83 ERA as a starter and a 1.87 ERA as a reliever. He gave up just 65 hits, 7.1 per 9, and 3 homers, good for an incredible 0.3 HR/9 ratio. But, he was considerably lucky, allowing a .266 BAbip. But, in 2009, Stauffer allowed a pretty much average .294 BAbip and posted a 3.58 ERA. The Padres would certainly take that. Stauffer hit .176 in '10 with 2 RBI. Stauffer had a great year in '10 due to great luck, but his success in 2009 showed that he's a fine pitcher even with average luck. Stauffer is almost a lock for a spot in the Padres' rotation.
Right-hander Cory Luebke, who will turn 26 in March, made his major league debut in '10, going 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA in 3 starts and a RA. He had a great year in 2010 in the minors between Double-A and Triple-A, going 10-1 with a 2.68 ERA, 88 K's, and 29 walks in 17 starts, 2 RA's, and 114 IP. He allowed just 83 hits, a great ratio of 6.6 per 9, and 8 homers, 0.6 per 9. But, he allowed just a .234 BAbip at Double-A and a .225 BAbip at Triple-A. Going through his minor league seasons, at three levels, Low-A in '08, High-A in '09, and Double-A in '09 he had BAbip's relatively close to .300. Leubke got away with the High BAbip's at Low-A in '08 and High-A in '09, still posting ERA's of 2.34 and 2.40, but he posted a 3.70 ERA at Double-A in '09. If Double-A could beat him when he got unlucky, obviously major league hitters could. Luebke wasn't so lucky when he hit, hitting just .171 with an RBI. I would be scared to have Luebke in my major league rotation right now.
This offseason , the Padres signed former Reds ace Aaron Harang to a one-year contract worth 3.5 million dollars. with an option for 2012. Seems like quite a risk. Harang's last season with an ERA under 4.00 was 2007, and he'll turn 33 in May. In '10, Harang went 6-7 with a 5.32 ERA, 82 K's, and 38 walks in 20 starts, 2 RA's, and 111.2 IP. He allowed 139 hits, a scary ratio of 11.2 per 9 innings, and 16 homers, 1.3 per 9. He would seem to be a pitcher worth staying away from. But, you have to notice his .342 BAbip in '10. That's unlucky. His FIP was 4.95, not great, but not that bad either. How bad can Harang be? He has a 4.33 ERA. The Padres have to hope that Harang will be able at least to get back to that in '11, especially because he'll pitch half his games at Petco Park. Harang hit .135 with 2 RBI in '10. The Padres are hoping that Harang's luck improves, and while he may never be an ace again, they're hoping he can at least be a decent pitcher. Pending a complete collapse, Harang will be in the Padres rotation.
Dustin Moseley made a halfway decent comeback from a variety of injuries in 2010 for the Yankees, going 4-4 with a 4.96 ERA, 33 K's, and 27 walks in 9 starts, 7 RA's, and 65.1 IP. He allowed just above a hit per inning, giving up 66 hits, and he allowed 13 homers, 1.8 per 9. He was pretty bad, and he way lucky enough to have a .261 BAbip. He doesn't seem like a good rotation candiadate to me. Maybe he could fit in the bullpen though. He has a 4.65 career ERA in the bullpen, including a 4.56 ERA and 4 holds in 38 relief appearances in '07, his only year spent primarily in relief. He signed a major league contract, so we should see him in the majors as a reliever. Unless he dominates in spring training, he will not be a starting pitcher for the Padres in '11.
It seems pretty clear to me that Stauffer, LeBlanc, and Harang should be 3-4-5 in the Padres rotation.
Bullpen:
Luke Gregerson, who will turn 27 in May, had a great year in '10 as a workhorse setup man, going 4-7 with a 3.22 ERA, 89 K's, just 18 walks, an astounding 40 holds, and 2 saves in 80 RA's and 78.1 IP. Look at these stats: amazing 10.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9, a decent 0.9 HR/9 ratio, and a ridiculous 5.4 H/9 ratio. Wow. He gave up just a few too many homers (8), but other than that he was great. One slight problem: he was the luckiest man alive with a .217 BAbip. Neutralized, he had a 3.84 ERA. Expect something along those lines in 2011. He'll still appear in a ton of games, though. Mike Adams, who will turn 33 in July, was even better than Gregerson, going 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA, 73 K's, just 23 walks, and 37 holds in 70 RA's and 66.2 IP. His ratios were a 9.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9, and a 6.5 H/9. THe homer ratios were the big difference in ERA between Gregerson and Adams. Was he lucky? Of course, but not as lucky as Gregerson, which is a good thing. He had .271 BAbip against him. Neutralized, he had a 1.94 ERA in '10. Who in the world wouldn't take that? He's a great reliever. And Joe Thatcher may have been better than Adams! Thatcher, a 29 year old lefty, went 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA, 45 K's, just 7 walks, and 12 holds in 65 RA's and 35 IP. He did pitch a lot less innings than Adams and Gregerson. He allowed just 23 hits, 5.9 per 9, and only 1 homer, good for 0.3 HR/9. He also had a .275 BAbip, which is less lucky than Adams. Lefties hit just .197 against him (righties .172). He's a great lefty specialist. Ernesto Frieri, who will turn 26 in July, is another great reliever. He went 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA, 41 K's, 17 walks, and 7 holds in 33 RA's and 31.2 IP. He allowed 18 hits, 5.1 per 9, and 2 homers, 0.6 per 9. He was very lucky, having just a .235 BAbip against him. Neutralized, he had a 2.10 ERA, but who can complain? The Padres' relievers were very lucky, and even if their luck evens out, they'll still have a shutdown bullpen. Might be the best bullpen I've ever seen.
Closer:
Slamming the door for the Padres is Heath Bell. In '10, he went 6-1 with a 1.93 ERA, 86 K's, 28 walks, and 47 saves, an impressive number, in 67 RA's and 70 IP. He allowed 56 hits, 7.2 per 9, and just 1 homer, good for an unbelievable 0.1 HR/9. And do you know the craziest part of any of his stats? He was unlucky in '10, allowing a .329 BAbip. Wow. He's just plain ridiculous.
Overview:
The Padres are a pretty bad hitting team, especially with Adrian Gonzalez gone, but they are very good defensively, and have great pitching. Their rotation may not be quite as great as it was in 2010, but their bullpen is incredible and should carry the team. The pitching will keep this team in contention, maybe even getting them to the postseason as the wild card or even NL West champs if the Giants and Rockies slip up. If this team can win those 2-1 games, they'll go far. But, the lack of quality hitting will cost them.
2010 Record: 90-72
Prediction: 88-74, 3rd in NL West
The Padres will contend if... they have some sort of offense, Stauffer and LeBlanc step up, Harang has a bounce-back year, and if the bullpen remains untouchable.
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